UFC Vegas 91 Betting Breakdown

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what is up everybody Welcome to DFS by the Numbers this is my betting breakdown video for UFC Vegas 91 we got Matas Nicola going against Alex Perez we are back in the Apex after a onewe break and we got a 13 fight card here overall I’ll say the card it should deliver uh from a violence perspective I think there’s going to be a lot of violent fights a lot of finishes especially on this main card the prelims you know there’s a couple that I could care less about but there’s a couple I’m really excited about like the the first fight of the night Benitez and then we got Nang going against Ivana Petrovic should be fun so yeah overall I think it’s a solid Fight Night card looking forward to breaking it down from a betting perspective and a betting perspective only if you do want to further more in-depth breakdown on why I’m picking who or or um just want a more in depth breakdown I did do a full card breakdown prediction video on Monday and lastly I do want to shout out the winner for the contest I did for UFC 300 on the betting breakdown video and the contest was uh give your biggest plus money prop and I want to shout a lot of you guys out like um we did this for UFC 299 and I think like only one person got anything correct but a lot of people hit a lot of big plus money plays uh but the winner was a a big one it was um shout out to John Doe AKA Christopher hitting a plus 5000 Max hallway round five prop was able to hit up Chris to get him his winnings but to be honest he didn’t really need the winnings cuz he put $40 on it to win 2040 so shout out to you Christopher you killed it you hit a big play and I couldn’t even imagine uh your reaction to hitting that big prop like I had a I had a big prop on Max holiday myself but not a not a big plus 5,000 so shout out to you and yeah we’re going to break down this card now it’s a card that I’m keeping you know fairly light um it’s a card that there’s a lot of sketchy fights it’s an apex card you know we we’ve we’ve been there done that this is the 90 first card at the Apex so we we know by now but uh I say we get into it we’re going to start with the first fight on the card we got mahash going against Gabriel bitez um yeah I’m passing here but I think like under two and a half fight doesn’t go the decision they make a lot of sense I think somebody does get finished here I think mahate by knockout makes a lot of sense it is plus money I was hoping to get a better price but they’re kind of all over it I like masat here I don’t really like him at minus 240 but this is a guy that’s going to be much younger much bigger as well he hits hard and bonitz 35 36 years old at this point taking a ton of damage the durability is not really where it needs to be I think motti knocks him out but in terms of a bet not really running to the window for anything on this fight to be honest uh next we got Ivana Petrovic going against leang na my girl and um my night pretty much comes down to this fight I have the the fight doesn’t go to decision tied to two parlays I have two parlays on this card the fight is a good decision parlayed in both so yeah I like violence here um couple things I want to mention n leang has 26 fights 25 of them have finished inside the distance 25 of them have finished before round three and 23 out of 26 have finished under a one and a half rounds so I think we get violence here one way or another you know I don’t think the leang na round one props the worst look in the world that’s literally how she wins she’s not winning any other way outside of round one um I’m not playing it personally I’ll be rooting for but what I’ll be rooting mostly for is that violence I think it’s leang not early in round one more specifically like the first couple minutes and if not I think Petrovic takes over and finishes shortly after round two I I don’t think it gets the round three and to be honest I wouldn’t even be shocked if Petrovic finished late round one as well so just give me violence here fight doesn’t good decision a key parlay piece for me if this fight does Go the Distance I’m probably going to have a losing night unless I hit some of these you know bigger props that I have later down the card uh fight won’t start round three I think is a solid look under two and a half all Sol anything violent on this fight is a solid look and I would tread lightly on any overs in a leang na fight that’s for sure but yeah fight doesn’t go to decision three units total on these parlays I’ll touch on my parlays um towards the end here when we get to the next legs next we got jamez yop going against Chris Padilla um yeah yop I was very impressed with what I saw in the contender series like some people were crapping on that performance um if you’re crapping on that performance I don’t think you watched the fight or I think you’re forgetting what happened he went out there and beat the breakes off of Malik Lewis across three rounds he hurt him in every single round the first second and third uh dropped him a couple times hurt him to the body a couple times I’m kind of shocked he didn’t get him out of there but yeah yeah uh he showed a lot of great things in that fight he’s taking on Chris Padilla who took the fight on Monday uh Padia made weight yop actually missed weight by half a pound I’m not sure if he came back in and and cut the extra half a pound but regardless I like yop here it’s just the guy is minus 440 you know there’s not much you can do here with it I was looking maybe at like an over one and a half um but I I don’t I don’t love it you know not much sticking out on this fight but yop should go out there and win but mineus 440 what can you do Katlin soza going against Marik man yeah there’s a couple prelims on this card which just like I would never you know touch any of these fights in my life and and this is one of them Katlin sza you know probably shouldn’t be minus 375 against anybody including marmahon but at the same time like I don’t want to bet on on mckm mckm has a path here with the rest Ling with the grappling but I just really don’t trust her to do it uh so should you lay minus 375 on Katlin Sosa absolutely not should you bet the dog uh Mar nikmah um Pro probably not as well you probably shouldn’t shouldn’t bet this fight no props sticking out no money line sticking out uh moving on Kyle Machado going against dant ma probably the worst fight on the card um your typical low-level heavyweight fight they’re going to go the distance I don’t really see a finish year um it’s going to be close it’s going to be greasy uh you know Kyle bado wasn’t Underdog last week he’s now it’s now a pick them he was a fair now now to pick him I would have probably bet him as an underdog and probably felt terribly about it all week but I do like the Striking of Kyle Machado in terms of the volume like this is a guy that can go out there and land well over 100 significant strikes across 15 minutes I like it whereas Dantel m a little bit lower volume a little bit slower um you know I’m not sure if ma is going to try to wrestle here I mean I think that would probably be the game plan I think the people that are betting maze are are kind of hoping for that because on the feed I do think Machado is probably the more active fighter but yeah like I said it probably goes to decision it’s probably greasy it’s probably close I think a pick them just just makes a ton of sense to me and it’s a fight I’ll be staying far far away from next we got Michael figl going against Austin hover I think this fight might even be worse uh than the last fight in terms of at least from a betting perspective like you know Michael fig alac I think he’s a lot better than he showed on his debut um against faram but I just can’t get the image out of my head of farz going out there and just dominating Michael fig laac on the ground like just taking him down out grappling him putting him into bat position like it was a tough look I mean far Z is a is a striker he’s a kickboxer you know it’s typically other guys are taking far Z down and having success but it was actually Zion that looked like ham Zay out there against the guy uh with that said though I think figc is a lot better than he showed in his debut um he’s taken a really long layoff it’s almost a two-year layoff he’s a young guy so I do think we’ll see a better version of the guy but I just don’t see how you know you can watch that Zion fight and feel comfortable putting money on the guy but at the same time like can you can you bet Austin hubard I I really don’t want to so it’s one of those fights where it’s it’s a dogger pass but I just can’t bring myself to place a bet on Austin Hub and I have a feeling that we do see a much better version of of uh Michael figl but the but the path is there for hubard it’s just I can’t get there I I don’t want to bet a lot of these prelims to be honest and this is this is one of them next we have the feature prelim a fight where I do have a bet we got Victor Henry going against Ronnie yaaya I am on the Victor Henry late props here I’m on the the round two and round three knockout props a quarter unit on each and yeah I think that there’s a good chance that um you know Victor Henry if I mean if Victor Henry wants to finish this fight he will all he has to do is is push a pace so show some urgency don’t follow Ron yaaya to the ground and I think he I think he finishes them round two round three you know Ron yaa is typically a tough and durable guy but he’s now 40 years old at this point I think actually he’s 39 but I mean the guy looks like 60 70 years old he’s taken a lot of damage throughout the career um he’s been fighting for Forever at this point Victor Henry I just think it’s a great magic for him I’m kind of surprised that money’s coming in on Ronnie yaaya uh Victor Henry was likeus 500- 600 he’s now onlyus 365 I just don’t know what the path for Ron yaaya would be I don’t think he’s controlling him for two out of the three rounds and I don’t really think he’s subbing him either so I I don’t mind Victor Henry actually as a parly piece but I did play the round two round three for Victor Henry by knockout uh round two KO plus 800 round 3 KO plus 1100 looking for Henry to to push a pace and hopefully get Yaya out of there late my concern is you know it’s kind of tough to finish these uh BJJ guys like they’ll get hurt they’ll flop to their back and then that just waste a lot of time off the CL I could see something like that I could see Victor Henry like knocking him down five times and going to decision which would be annoying but if Victor Henry wants to I think he does finish here quarter unit on those sprinkles for me next we got OS medic going against Tim Means um yeah I like violence here uh this is a OS medic fight OS medic has never been the distance and I don’t think that’s going to change here um % finish rate in medic’s wins and a 100% finish rate in his losses both coming by submission Tim Means is a guy that is a very dangerous striker in his own right um he’s a black Bel in BJJ he has power still at the at 40 years old and I think these two are going to want to do the same exact thing which is you know come forward stand and bang until someone Falls and I think someone does fall indeed um I played the fight doesn’t good to decision minus 225 I think there’s value on that line I put 1.5 units on it um you know two under two and a half solid fight won’t start round three may maybe solid but I just took the fight doesn’t go to decision I think someone gets served here I think it’s more than likely means being the one getting served but you know medic kind of uh you know he’s dropped the ball in the P he’s been finished twice um and maybe Tim me does pull off the upset but I’m going violent here just give me the fight is a good decision laying the chalk which I’ve typically been trying to stay away from but you know it’s a play that I think hits next we got Jonathan Pierce going against David onama kind of a closy line fight David anama did Miss weight by a couple pounds which you I mean you can make a couple cases in terms of is it a good thing or is it a bad thing um you know you could think that you know maybe the the weight Advantage helps onama with the wrestling the grappling which would be a good thing but you know you know did he miss weight because of uh you know an injury you know a bad camp and I think that this fight actually didn’t get put together that long ago so yeah you can look at it both ways but I’m not really factoring it into my uh analysis too much and I I like Pierce here nothing’s really changed I like Pierce to just Implement his will Implement his game plan Pierce is a guy that pushes the pace a very hard Pace um this guy can wrestle wrestle wrestle and he’s one of those guys that he’ll take you down and if you get back up you’re you’re going right back down and he’s going to rinse and repeat break you down um cook you and and and finish you you know Jonathan Pierce has multiple round two round three finishes he’s a finisher um you know he has like a I think almost like a 90% finish rate that the times that he did win by decision like that Darren alin’s fight should have been stopped um and and I know David odama has never been finished but I mean Nate L let him off the hook and even Mason Jones had him in some bad spots so I just see Jonathan Pierce breaking him down and finishing him in that second or third round I have the Jonathan Pierce round two round three props you can never go wrong with Jonathan Pierce round two round three cord unit on each plus 700 for round two plus 1100 for round three there and then I also put one unit on the fight doesn’t go the decision minus 175 I think it’s a violent fight I think Pierce is live for that 23 and then I think onama like if onama wins it’s it’s probably a first round knockout um onama has a lot of power onama also has a little bit of a submission game as well and Pierce has been finished four times Pierce you know he’s he’s capable of being finished so if onama is able to you know a stuff the take Downs keep it on the feet he’s probably going to knock out Pierce and we’ve seen Pierce put his neck into some bad spots so I think onama is alive in that aspect of things but I think the more likely scenario Jonathan Pierce breaking him down and finishing him down the stretch all right moving on we have janata Denise going against Austin Lane this is going to close out the first parlay for me I have leang Ivana Petrovic fight doesn’t go to decision parlayed with Ryan span bogd on guskov fight won’t start round three comes out to minus 150 and I have 1.5 units on that and yeah I think somebody’s getting served here I think it’s in in the first round more than likely and I think it’s a good spot for Denise here you know Denise is a guy kickboxing back round six wins all six come in the first round Austin Lane four knockout losses all four come in the first round Austin Lane very hitable has that tall man’s defense and doesn’t really have the chin to to back it up I think Denise is going to plot forward and and land a big shot um but yeah I think the the fight won’t start round three great parlay piece I struggle to see this going 10 minutes and even the under one and a half I think is a solid parlay piece I struggle to see this going seven and a half minutes but yeah I did personally parly up that fight won’t start round three with fight doesn’t good to decision for 1.5 units moving on we got Karina Silva going against Ariana lipsky and yeah there’s a spot that I like here so Ariana lipsky has proven me wrong um I think the last three times I I was definitely on godo I was definitely on Casey O’Neal and I picked Aldridge but I didn’t bet Aldridge aldrige was minus 400 in that spot but yeah I picked against lipsky in her last three fights I’m picking against her here again lipsky’s looked great as of late her take on defense has looked just so much improved but I mean there’s a a big difference between a a JJ Aldrich and even like aato and and Casey O’Neal like Karina Silva I think she’s just different she’s so dangerous wherever the fight goes if this fight hits the mat it’s over in an instant I mean in terms of the ground game it’s it’s night and day between these two we saw lipsky get just dominated by Fighters like Anthony CHF chenko and Montana De la Rosa like the floor is lava here for lips give the fight hits the ground it’s a wrap and then even on the feet liy probably the minute winner here but Karina Silva packs heat she throws hard she hits hard and lipsky she’s kind of chinny like she’s been knocked out four times she’s been hurt a lot Priscilla Catera does she have power yeah but I mean come on that wasn’t the the best look seeing Priscilla go out there and knock her out in about 60 seconds so even if Silva doesn’t get the fight down to the mat I think she can knock her down and then get on top and finish her or knock her out on the feet so um if you like lipsk maybe lipsky round three or decision but I think Silva either gets the fight to the ground and finds a sub or or club and Subs are here so I like Silva and how I’m playing it is instead of laying the minus 160 on the money line I am taking her best win condition which is going to be Sila to win in rounds one or rounds two uh which is plus 175 Silva has 17 wins and all 17 have come in round one or round two if this fight does get to round three probably not good um and she probably goes on to maybe lose the fight but I think Silva does get it early in the first or second round one unit plus 175 for Silva round one round two then we got span gusov um this is going to close out the other parley for me have the same thing fight won’t start round three uh parli with the lianga Petrovic fight is a good decision came out to minus 150 and I have 1.5 units on that I think this fight ends probably in the first round you know this is a fight where both guys very dangerous both guys pass to finish Ryan span can knock him out out or sub him and then bogon gusov he has power he can knock out span um you know I I struggle to trust both these guys in their in their durability gusov has been finished in two of his three losses one by knockout one by sub even span’s been finished six times uh in terms of like a side here I I I do lean span it’s just span’s one of those guys that is so hit or miss I think he’s the much skilled fighter but um you know it wouldn’t be shocking if you know gusov went out there and took his head off but yes span should win this fight it’s just I don’t I don’t trust the dude but what I do trust though is violence I like the fight won’t start round three as a parlay piece I’m on it and then also maybe even under one and a half if you want to be a little bit more aggressive there which I I do struggle to see this going seven and a half minutes as well so that closes out the second parlay of the card for me and then we got the main event we got Matas Nicola Alex fres I’m not touching this fight I could see this fight playing out so many different ways I like nickel out here but I I don’t trust the ability he’s been knocked out in all three of his losses I don’t trust the volume I don’t trust the willingness to Grapple in this fight specifically so I like him to win I think he’s more skilled I think he’s the better Striker I think he has really good grappling success if it does go down to the mat it’s just I don’t really trust him to get it down there I don’t really trust him to throw as much volume as I would like to see so I’m not I’m not touching it but yeah I could see I could see Nicola winning by decision I could see Nicola winning by submission maybe even by knockout has a lot of power I get to see this fight going so many different ways and even Alex Perez like Alex Perez could be live here like this could be I hate to say it like a like a really slow paced boring fight because that’s just how Nicola fights he’s so calculated he’s so smart he takes his time he slows the fight down which is great it’s just you know not the most exciting fight to watch so I’m not touching the main event but the pick is going to be Nicola all right quick recap on the bets keeping it light short and sweet um the two parlays 1.5 units on each the first parlay the fight won’t start round three Ryan span bed on gusov parlayed with Petrovic laying off fight doesn’t go to decision minus 150 1.5 units the second parlay uh Petrovic lingna fight does a good decision parlay but the fight won’t start round three in the lane Denise fight minus 150 1.5 units I got Silva wins in round one or round two one unit plus 175 I have one unit on the Jonathan Pierce David onama fight doesn’t go the distance minus 175 Pierce round two cter unit Plus 00 Pierce round three quarter unit plus 1100 I have beans medic fight doesn’t go the distance minus 225 for 1.5 units and then lastly I have uh Victor Henry ko2 quarter unit plus 800 Victor Henry ko3 quarter unit plus 1100 there you guys have it best of luck for UFC Vegas 91 we have a pay-per-view next card UFC 301 um do me a favor leave a like on your way out subscribe to the channel and best of luck guys and we’ll talk to you soon see you later