PGA Golf Picks – Wells Fargo Championship Bets With Kyle Kirms

PGA Golf Picks – Wells Fargo Championship Bets With Kyle Kirms

Kyle Kirms is joined by The Big Nasty to run through some top bets for CJ Cup Byron Nelson

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yo what’s up welcome back to another episode of the suas uh the big nasty is with us to talk about go what what tournament is this is coming up this weekend we actually got two tournaments uh it’s an elevated one the Wells Fargo Championship uh qual Hollow in um Greensboro North Carolina I believe and then there’s actually a new tournament because this this tournament for the first year is one of those elevated ones so we have a second tournament which is the Myrtle Beach Classic so we got one in North Carolina one in South Carolina and these are both PGA events both PGA events so you know you’ll see that the Wells Fargo like the top 65 in the world you know stacked field no cut and then anybody else who you know doesn’t meet the the mark for that tournament to be eligible is going to play in this other Myrtle Beach Classic got it okay so the Wells Fargo would be the the top tier players yeah so you know I I got actually a little bonus pick when we get to the Myrtle Beach Championship but there’s not much action out there at least in in FanDuel I’m not sure about some other sports books but uh everything that we’re going to be talking about I think is pretty much hammering home you know the Wells Fargo Wells Fargo right yeah as far as last week minwu Lee made a run there um but as we were just talking about missed he missed a putt he missed easy putts for Birdie on 17 and 18 to the final round that would have kept him in the top 20 and if he made both of them he would have tied he would have been he would have been he would have been up in the top 10 how he how he made both so two missed birdie putts in the final couple holes man yeah the the epitome of of bad beats right there um yeah listen it he was there all week it made it entertaining but uh you know in the grand scheme of things fell just the hair short it’s all right it happens um all right so let’s talk about the Wells Fargo classic what do we want what why don’t I why don’t I pull up the odds for this right now before we get started I want to have everything in front of me um odds here we go Wells Fargo classic and it looks like is sheffler playing Sheffer is not playing so you’re saying somebody else has a chance yeah someone else has a chance so let’s start with uh let’s see where Rory’s at looks like Rory’s at plus 650 plus 700 to win this one yeah so Rory is uh he’s on my guys to watch list um he’s a pass Champion um so you know he plays it well and when you talk about you know the mold so to speak of of what the Wells Fargo calls for you really really have to be a good driver of the golf ball and it pays to be long and Rory’s probably the best driver on the PGA tour so no doubt that his odds to win it are probably you know the worst in terms of he is the the odds on favorite especially being a best Champion as well got it um so let’s start out with with um like a nice top 10 who do you think has some value here yeah so um I got I got Max hom Max hom won it two years ago uh the year just last year he finished top eight and uh I think Max hom right now on fanduels uh going at plus 200 to finish in the top 10 correct uh I I think that uh that’s that’s kind of a guy I’m I’m honing in on he’s been playing pretty well of late and you know I’m again I’m a big fan of if if the cour is you know you have good history on the course uh I I think you usually have Good Vibes and it translates into good golf play yeah I can see here Max Plus 2,000 to win uh plus 200 to for to finish in the top 10 you actually get a plus 210 on bet 365 for those of you that have that and top 20 is going at minus 125 so you have to lay a little bit of juice if you want to bet the top 20 for hom yeah I mean and and we talked about it just at the start right so you know this is an elevated event so in terms of top 20 there’s only I think 65 guys in the field and no cut so even if he doesn’t get off to the hottest start in the world you know top 20 I you know I kind yeah yeah so I mean I if if you want to look at kind of a safer play you know I think top 20 is a good play but you know I’m gonna try to push the envelope a little bit and uh take him for the top 10 all right cool so max h mark that down here all right who do we want to move on to next so moving down just a couple of spots a guy who’s been playing pretty good golf of late um a guy who if you look at what PGA Tour experts are saying in terms of how they’re betting um you know siah theala is is right up there I’m actually I like siah in the top 20 um you could get him right now in the top 20 at plus 100 so uh pretty good for your money on that guy um and terms of you know I’m on datag golf.com is is kind of where I pull all my information from um and datag golf according to their model siah theala has a 3.0 chance to win the tournament you know the highest odds to win the tournament is Rory mckoy at 88.7% so you know not not an awful you know number to to be looking at especially if you’re getting him plus money in the top 20 yeah and it looks like DraftKings has plus 105 for sah in the top 20 so uh I actually placed a bed on sth um in the Masters um didn’t didn’t pull through uh so I am familiar with them plus 105 top 20 I may have to consider that especially since as you said there’s no cut and uh it’s only 65 golfers so you’re essentially asking them to finish in the top half of the field for sure and then if you actually pull up um you know like I said I’m I use datag golf.com and and they have this their whole kind of model and they take into a lot of different accounts but uh looking at datag golf’s odds for siah to finish in the top 20 they have them at 44.3% which is you know eighth best in the entire field so obviously they like the way his you know his game fits this course right I mean and if you’re looking at again plus money in the top 20 and they’re saying in their predictions it’s happens 44% of the time I like that odd yeah yeah that’s about as good as you’re going to get as far as uh with these golf bets that are tough to find Value at times um do you want do you have another pick another value pick or do you want to go right to the long shot so I got I got two other interesting plays and uh you know depending on how you feel about these guys so what we just talked about before really important to hit the ball long and straight on this golf course two guys that also fit that mold Cameron young and wendam Clark wam Clark past Champion here been playing really good golf of late if it weren’t for Scotty Sheffer wendham Clark would have two more wins already this year um he’s finished runner up to Scotty twice um so I really like wam Clark again pass Champion you can’t deny when somebody plays a golf course well you know I like that a lot um so those would be two guys you know that I’m kind of honing in on I didn’t really do a ton of Deep dive into what their top 10 or top 20 yards are but you know if I’s expensive I was just looking at it plus 1,400 to win plus 160 150 depending on your sports book to finish in the top 10 so that means the oddsmakers agree with you that he’s got a real good shot to to to put out a good yeah I mean like I said you know golf is really a game of when people are going through hot streaks and wendam Clark is is pretty hot right now like I said if Scotty sheffler wasn’t on planet Earth you know he’d have two wins in the last month and we’d be talking about how how good wam Clark is but instead you know we’re all bowing down to Scotty sheffler yeah I mean understand so um and then the other guy you said was cam young let me pull up his yeah cam young all right so it looks like uh cam young you could get some uh some better looking prices plus 250 to finish in the top 10 plus 2500 to win for cam young okay so that you gave us four guys I like I think I’m going to trust that that golf data model I think I’m going to play Sith and I might go with Cam young I is is which which one has the uh the long hair is it cam young or Cam Smith so cam Smith is long hair mustache he’s now on the live tour um yeah cam young okay I’ll bet cam young I won’t vet cam Smith ever yeah I just won’t do it him and I won’t vet Victor hland ever either yeah I mean we we don’t have to get you know I’m I’m listen I like Victor but you know in terms of trusting him with with my money I don’t think I’m gonna play that bad the guy folds on Sundays just yeah how about a long shot yeah so again like if you look at um you know if we talk about the mold or what you know data golf predicts you know a good chance for somebody to win number two number two in driving distance and accuracy for the entire field Ben hyang on I don’t know how to how to exactly spell it but a an is the last name all right this guy is second on the tour in driving distance behind Rory marroy and this this data golf likes been on in terms of how the courses fit and so his odds are probably amazing yeah I’m looking for it now he didn’t come up with what I had okay I found it here so all right so his English name is spelled benen but his actual name I see it right here I’ll put his odds on the screen now 80 to one it’s looking like that’s serious that’s ser that’s that’s some some serious groundwork delay but like I said in terms of you know driving distance which you know data golf thinks that you know driving distance is a huge thing for this golf tournament um you know he’s number two right behind the guy who’s the odds on favorite so if there’s a good long shot you know I think that that that could be uh you know sprinkle a little dusting on there and I was actually wrong it’s not 80 to1 so I was looking at the wrong thing I have the right thing here it’s actually 40 to1 plus 4,000 plus 4500 on bmgm to finish in the top 10 plus 320 350 so it’s not absolutely ridiculous no I mean and and again he’s been playing pretty good golf of late you don’t get into these elevated tournaments if you’re not playing good golf he’s got to be considered the top 65 in the field right correct correct so the way the PGA Tour does these new elevated events is I think it’s top 50 in the world and then it’s you know the the hottest Five Guys on tour and then the hot the next hottest 10 and then it gets cut so I think it’s you know like I said top 50 in the world then the next like basically 15 hot guys that are on tour so somewhere in that category but when you say hot you mean like who’s playing well recently right correct correct yeah so you have to you earn a certain amount of FedEx Cup points and you know based on those FedEx Cup points that basically you know dictates whether you fall into that category or not sounds cool anything else to share before we close yeah so like I said we got two events um FanDuel doesn’t really have anything on the Myrtle Beach Classic but I’ll throw this one out there if you do look it at the Myrtle Beach Championship um if you Andrew Novak is a HomeTown kid he’s been playing pretty good golf of late uh he grew up you know just outside of Myrtle Beach and uh you know I actually have a personal connection to Andrew Novak so I’m going to sprinkle a little maybe money on Andrew Novak to win uh uh you know that’s my bonus play of the week the Myrtle Beach Classic Andrew Novak I’m seeing right here on CBS Sports they have him as plus 4,000 to win the Myrtle Beach Classic so that so 40 to1 he is on there and you know what that’s only the one two three it’s only about the the the 14th most likely so he’s up there yeah I mean so it’s it’s really anybody’s week when you’re talking about when there’s two different tournaments right so you have you have basically all of your big time names your big time players are all playing in this elevated event and so you know why not you know the kid the kid has definitely if you probably go look up his last you know 10 uh 10 tournaments he’s he’s made probably almost 80% of his cuts and he’s been playing pretty good golf so um like I said I got I got a I got a connection to him personally um I think he’s he’s kind of back in his home state and home era and uh you know I I think he could get it done this week he has made he has made the cut in seven of his last eight tournaments yep there you go all right so Andrew Novak sounds good man so uh we’re all set for Myrtle Beach Classic and the Wells Fargo cup it’s called Wells Fargo Championship Wells Fargo Championship all right thanks for joining us I will uh we’ll be back next Wednesday night for next week’s tournament Let’s uh let’s have a good one