Free Best Bets and Expert Sports Picks | WagerTalk Today | NBA Playoffs | UFC Fight Night | 4/25/24

Thursday April 25, 2024: Get daily free picks, sports betting tips, and advice from The Prez and Teddy Covers Monday through Friday on WagerTalk Today. On every show, the Dynamic Duo breaks down the biggest games on the board with special guest handicappers, giving out free NBA picks, NFL predictions, college football betting advice and so much more. Each week we check in with Las Vegas bookmakers and professional sports bettors to get the inside scoop on the sports betting industry.

On Thursday’s edition of WagerTalk Today, Marco D’Angelo and Ralph Michaels join Prez and Teddy to give NBA Playoffs and MLB predictions! Kyle Anthony closes out the show by giving UFC Fight Night picks for Saturday.

Introduction 00:00
Marco NY Knicks at Philadelphia 76ers 4:30
Marco Houston Astros at Chicago Cubs 10:00
What Did Bettors Learn 20:40
Teddy’s Big Game Breakdown Nuggets vs Lakers 26:15
Ralph MLB Mariners vs Rangers 29:45
Ralph NBA DEN/ LAL 1Q Total 33:50
Ralph Chart – NBA 0-2 home teams 36:13
Kyle UFC Vegas 91 Matheus Nicolau vs Alex Perez 43:01
Kyle UFC Vegas 91 Jonathan Pearce vs David Onama 47:25
Prez Pen Box 51:00

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[Music] welcome everybody to wager talk today I am Lawrence presman I’m miserable Vivian my woman has told me I complain too much it’s wager talk today great lineup Marco Ralph and Kyle joining us Marco’s going to talk baseball uh and NBA is going to look at the Knicks and Philadelphia Ralph Michaels will look at Seattle um in baseball Denver and the Lakers and he has a chart for us on teams that are 0 and two and of course Kyle Anthony with two big live delicious dogs in UFC Teddy covers my co-host and yes I stunk yesterday Teddy and I appreciate your kind words um I think I’m 11 and three I think I’m 11 and three in my NHL free picks that I give out on the on the videos I went two in one yesterday and I shot the bed for my clients I went 0 and three I couldn’t have been any worse I’m getting zero bounces I’m pissed off uh and Vivan actually did tell me today that she’s sick of me complaining so so uh me too yeah you’re sick of me complaining have you ever wored with and I I only get you for an hour a day or less than an hour a day VI gets you all the rest of the day so just slay Lawrence this is a humbling business all right you’ve had a rough week I wasn’t good last week I bounced back the last couple days been real good you know five- one the last two nights uh two and one again yesterday Miami Heat easy right side um so there have been lots of times that we’ve been on the show together and you been running good and I’ve been running bad and it sucks when other people are running good and you’re not but we all know we’ve been doing this long enough sometimes it’s going to go your way and when it’s not breathe you double down on your work and you snap out of it it’s what we do Lawrence sorry you’re running bad buddy yeah slow jam speaks for all of us viven slow jam says viven speaks for all of us okay fine well I I guess look guys who buy my plays at least know how Soul crushed I am Marco D’Angelo joining us everyone and well I don’t think Marco’s had a slump in two years how are you brother you don’t shave that head I thought you had hair you just like being bald no it’s gone bro it’s gone yeah that’s like that’s like when we say we’re getting old yeah we’re not getting old we’re old let’s get into it brother uh yesterday Teddy and I uh talked about the unders in the NBA and how many of them are constantly hitting in the first round of the playoffs um and how dark it has been uh I mean literally like there’s two different games going on at the same time I saw your hand come up Teddy I’m very focused and engaged go ahead just Ahad again it went the we talked about the unders yesterday and we made and my point was that moving forward it’s already coming gone and what happened last night overs 2 and0 in the NBA last night let’s talk about the Knicks and the 76ers wait Marco I’m told told by the chat okay Marco does have audio I I was getting excited looking at the wager talk live odd screen right now I’m seeing the Knicks and the 76ers Philly’s been bet up five and a half the current prevailing number there’s even sixes starting to pop for the Sixers total 204 this has been bet down from 205 205 and a half at the open what do you like Nick Sixers game three Philadelphia returning home with that 02 series deficit yeah Teddy you look at this game and the old cliche in uh the playoffs is it’s not really a series until the home team actually loses a game you know everybody’s holding serve so you’re going to expect a big effort out of Philadelphia tonight at home down 02 especially after the way they choked away game two in New York I mean they had the game one had a lead uh less than a minute left in that game and they did about everything you could do wrong uh I look for them to turn it up defensively and since embiid returned from injury this is a team that held their opponents eight of the 10 games since he’s returned to 42% or less shooting now we are looking at a low total now this total did open up at 205 it got down as low as 202 and a half and now is working its way back up and I think that’s kind of key and one of the indicators that I like to look at uh Teddy and I know you’re a guy does opening line reports and you watch the market a lot I’ve always been of the uh premise that if you see early money on and under I really respect that because we know that johnq public doesn’t run to the window early to bet unders okay we know that by Nature they generally bet overs and they do it more closer to game you know the day of the game we saw the early money in this game come in on the under and I respect it and agree with it um I expect Philadelphia to play more Del iately uh on the offensive end of the game uh pound the ball inside and then of course on the other side as I said you’re going to see a defensive effort from them key stat in this game obviously Philadelphia’s down 02 Philadelphia this season when they have lost back playing with revenge for back-to-back losses against an opponent this season nine times this has happened they have gone under the total in all nine of those games I’m going to go ahead and take the under tonight uh for the Knicks and the 76ers uh for our free play today so a very interesting discussion here we talk about with the early money and the sharp money and what’s the early money and we respect the early money and we do I mean we know that the guys who are betting well before tip off tend to be better betters long term than those who are betting uh in the hours for tip off but this total initially got bet down and then over the course of the last 24 hours we’ve seen nothing but over money and it’s sharp over money it’s not public over money the public hasn’t even bet this game yet or they’re betting it now so the early move to the under felt like kneejerk they’re been everything under and it feels to me like the handicap like the sharp money here that just handicapped the game is looking over tonight and that in my mind is pretty clear that the sharp side here is over is my opinion wrong is your opinion wrong talk about it oh Teddy it’s again it’s which way you want to look at it um to me this could be one of those I’ll give you this if this is one of those ones where it’s a head fake where the initial bet was try to get a couple points of value to get it down and they want to go to the overs where they really want the money then I’ll agree with you on that I’ll give you that but I just don’t I don’t think that that’s the case here to me I respected the first move and would you agree with this Teddy you know that on game day the public bets and we know you set a 100 people in a room and tell them whether they know anything about basketball or not do you want to bet the over 205 or do you want to bet the under 205 more people in that room are going to bet 205 because the general gamblers mentality as I like to refer to it is nobody likes to bet unders you want to have scoring because in your mind you’re always live you’re never out of the bet but in reality when you bet an over you’re never actually winning the play until it actually gets there you’re always winning when you bet an under until you get to that point the problem is once you get to that point there’s no coming back from it and that’s why people don’t like it um we’ll just tend to disagree on this one and again going with the effort they’re down 20 they got to turn it up defensively to me to win this game and I think they need to pound the ball inside to uh get a more and a halfcourt game with mbid I’m looking at it with the early money and the way I handicapped the game uh of how I see the game going and that’s why I’m on the under it’s my turn uh so you’re on the under yeah yeah well listen uh I had a moment I had an old age moment uh Marco so we’re going with the under in New York and Philadelphia we’ve got a baseball bat coming up Houston at the Chicago Cubs we spoke about this game yesterday although it was yesterday’s game where are you going today well I’m gonna look at this what the hell is plus 1.10 yeah it was a little typo you know I do my you notice when my stuff comes in uh to the slack overnight it’s late at night okay uh the eyes are a little boggy sometimes and yeah uh I put an extra decimal in there but um I’m going to continue the theme of picking on John Q public here and this is what I’m going to say and I can’t wait for Teddy’s rebuttal on this one how many average betters are going to look at this game today and say okay this is the final game of the series there’s no way the Chicago Cubs are going to sweep the Houston Astros especially with Justin Verlander on the mound for the Astros and it’s that kind of thinking that will’ll send you to the poor house in a hurry this Houston Astro team they’re they’re not right they’re a broken team right now uh they’re like one and eight in their last or excuse me one- seven in their last eight games seven and 18 on the season and I’ll be honest with you I think this is a team that’s missing their manager um I questioned them letting Dusty Baker go last year I know it kind of was played as it was a mutual thing but they didn’t do anything to keep him there and Dusty left they’re missing him the bullpen is a shambles right now they’re not scoring any runs they’ve scored five runs in the last three games that’s a bad combination when you’re not hitting and scoring and your bullpens not getting the job done that’s how you end up losing seven out of your last eight games the Cubs are playing well especially at home they’re nine and three at home and are averaging over six runs a game yes granted I realize it’s wrigly uh but the wind blow blows in sometimes too they’re scoring 6.1 runs per game I’m going to go ahead and take them Justin Verlander yes he was sharp in his debut last time out but remember you know it was we’re in late April before he made his first uh start he’s not going to go the distance you’re going to see the bullpen in there sometimes and the Cub starter this will be the first time they faced him I say it all the time and he’s pitched well he’s pitched four he’s had four starts a saw and he’s given up two runs or less in all four of his starts first time for the Astros to face him the pitcher has the advantage over the hitters first time around the league I’m getting the better ball Club getting uh plus money and honestly I think the Astros are favorite on name alone the Houston Astros and Justin Verlander I don’t think they should be favored in this game and oh by the way Houston’s bit a road favorite nine times this season they’re one and eight so far in that role until they show me something different I’ll go ahead and take the hot club with a sharp pitcher better Bullpen and hitting the baseball give me the Cubs as a home Underdog today on getaway day so I don’t mean to call out Adam trigger and I’m not I apologize Adam but uh in advance but Adam was on here yesterday making a case for the Astros and I’m like what are you thinking you know you have to see something from Houston before you bet Houston right now so conceptually I’m with you however you talk about the Astros being one and eight well I’ve been against them when Justin Verlander was on the hill last time out and that was the one okay and it felt like Houston came with extra effort really the effort was there with their stud hurler back on the hill and Verlander even said after the game his quote was I was pleasantly surprised with how well I pitched so it’s not like someone I trust him fully but Houston if they’re going to win a game it’s gonna be with verland like isn’t that isn’t this the game where they go all in it kind of feels that way for me and that’s why they’re chalk I hear what you’re saying Teddy but let’s go back to verland or that one game that you talked about remember when was I I was on the show a week or so ago and I took a a game where a player was making his first start uh tailon for uh the Cubs and I say when a when a guy is making his first start off of an injury going to get a big effort and you’re going to get it from the team as well because they want to perform for him because you cross examined me because I went against one of my other angles the Cubs were coming home and I said this is one of those situations that I go against it so yeah they got the job done but you know what I don’t think you see the same effort in the second the second start and I’m GNA stay with the heart the hot club and I think you should you’re conceptionally agreeing with me I think you should stay with your initial Banner there and let’s go getting the Astros I’ll tell you that it’s it’s Cubs or pass uh but it’s not a game that made my card for today excellent analys what do you have toote oh T no wait I I’m back I’m on the show here guys firstly I want to point out that shut up firstly I want to point out that Adam trigger won his client baseball play yesterday he had St Louis 4% that’s what counts and second I’m going to ask both of you old decrepit men a question when will Houston become a bet on team I mean it’s still you know they’re still loaded uh they are all out of sorts but don’t we have an opportunity here moving forward Marco never bet to stop a streak okay that’s 101 in handicapping okay you can you know guys that say Okay team is due and they’re going to bet against the team trying to stop a streak you know what guess how many times you win once okay if you bet to continue the direction that the streak is going yeah eventually you are going to lose one bet but you can win more bets three four five six however long a streak goes and I’m not going to try to guess when the Astros turn it around but yes PR when you do see them win a couple games in a row and you see them hitting the baseball while they’re doing doing that yeah you can get some value before the market catches up to them that’s the way I look at streaks Theodore so Houston currently ranks number 29 in MLB in profitability they are minus 12.2 units through their first 25 games the only team worse is Chicago white sock here’s my prediction right now they’re minus 12.2 units I say at the end of the season they are minus more than 12.2 units I am not looking at Houston as a team that I expect to be profitable at any point this season they may have a run but when you’ve been as good as the Astros have been for as long as the Astros have been that good and then you’re not that good the next year that’s not a team I’m saying oh the FL the switch is gonna flip on you know I’m not Houston’s problems to me are bigger than maybe the markets might be think that they are right I don’t I’m not convinced that Bullpen you know they signed all these high leverage relievers whove pitched all these high leverage innings in recent years and they’re all sucking and I’m not convinced that bolin’s goingon to get better uh the lineup’s sucking and I’m not convinced the lineup’s goingon to be a lot better anyhow Astros are not a team I’m looking to back anytime soon if we see a hot streak from Houston maybe we jump on board Marco D’Angelo number one most profitable NBA expert in the last four four years uh outstanding dude and also shortterm wise 15 and four your last 19 31 and 12 run what do you’ve got going for the clients tonight oh it’s customer appreciation day every capper’s got a play up for just $5 these plays normally sell for 25 bucks I’ve got my top basketball play NBA play for tonight you can get that play for five bucks over at wager talk and put a bunch of them in your C grab you can get Five Guys for what you’d normally pay for one today on customer appreciation there we go Mark OD thanks for joining us Teddy I haven’t put my customer appreciation play up yet uh what do you have going for the clients I’ve got one in the NBA and one early start in MLB the uh NBA is the $5 customer appreciation play and that is obviously for tonight uh association’s been pretty good uh for a long long time so uh plus 27 units of profit since 2022 58% counting every play every day and we’re on a 62% run now uh since March so we’re making money NBA consistently Miami last night and carrying me on our combo package and look I don’t I don’t want that to change I don’t want to be carrying you I want both of us to be carrying each other uh Theodore I am not on the show tomorrow so real quick to all my big fans out there that line up for hours and hours for My Autograph um my dad’s 80 years old and uh as he points out to me he doesn’t have many Summers left he wants to go golfing with me uh and he can’t golf late in the afternoon so I have committed once every two weeks to take some time off of the show so that I can go golfing with my father so uh that’s my priority right now he’s 80 years old I I I’m sure everybody understands yes Teddy I’m just curious why you wouldn’t pick Saturday or Sunday for that because he doesn’t want to wait six hours to play around a golf given how busy the courses are okay I’m I’m at his back in call Bro inquiring minds want to know yeah well there you go okay brother uh what did we learn in The Wonderful World of Sports batting uh well we learned that the NBA overs went 2 and0 last night the chain value was there and now it’s gone I want to talk about a bet that is literally the books giving away money nobody I know is going to bet it I shouldn’t say that casual bets don’t bet this let me start the most Wise Guy money I ever saw bet was on McGregor Mayfield that fight you know they waited for Mayfield to for uh Mayfield for McGregor to get bet and Mayfield was down to minus 450 minus 500 even down to minus $4 doll in some spots and then it was literally was an all you can eat buffet with a big favorite I knew guys that essentially went all in on that bed for Mayfield to beat McGregor don’t see it very often but I saw guys going all in yesterday every dollar that they had in every account that they had got wagered on this one particular bet I have no hesitation to tell you about it because 99% of you are not going to make that same bet this is the BET Caleb Williams to be the number one overall pick you have to lay a 100 to win a dollar risk a 100 payback 101 there are no locks in sports betting this is a lock what’s the scenario in which Caleb Williams does not go number one including if they trade the pick or if the Bears management has a brain fart under pressure there’s no pressure you got the number one pick it’s not going to happen Williams is going to go number one and you can get essentially risk-free 1% on your money how do prob betters make their living little edges over time this is a little Edge you’re getting 1% on your money but books are giving away 1% on your money today for Caleb Williams to be the number one overall pick will you risk your entire bankroll to get it I know smart guys that did Lawrence will you no why um because I don’t like to risk that much to make that little and the sharp guys do I get it but for me 1% return in a day sure so this is the issue it’s a risk reward ratio if I lose my bank roll I’m [ __ ] pardon my language but I’m [ __ ] you know there’s no scenario that Williams doesn’t get drafted number one and yet I still can’t make that bad but the smartest guys I know did I’m going to I’m GNA do half why not good luck now so you know you won’t you’re just saying it I know I I can’t bring myself to do it either dude the guy like wakes up tomorrow and breaks his leg or doesn’t matter he’s drafted I mean what’s the scenario that Caleb Williams has not go number one tonight there’s no scenario it’s a smart bet the smartest guys I know are betting it hard to do hard to get to the window and put your entire vent rolling for a 1% return but little edges over time that’s I mean literally you’re giving away 1% books don’t give away money they’re giving away 1% today if you want to take advantage of it have you made any draft bets have you is there anything you see no no draft bets are draft bets when by the time you see them they’re done you know that’s the problem with the draft Marketplace is that I mean by the time you know the info someone else founded five minutes earlier and they made 15 limit bets at every book in town so dra draft betting can be very profitable if you’re really dialed into the marketplace but if you’re working NBA playoffs you’re working MLB the draft for me is is you know is is not uh something I can work at that level because that requires being you know fully vested in just football right now and that’s not where I’m at Teddy covers Lawrence presman you’re watching wager talk today everybody we got tons more show Ral Michaels and Kyle Anthony Teddy’s big game breakdown my Penalty Box segment uh let’s bring Ral Michaels in right now Ralph welcome to the show how are you my friend and it looks like you um are the opposite of Steve Merill you have been standing in Sun for the last three days we need a volume there weal Michaels guys if you like this show please take a minute out out of your time and hit that like button subscribe to our Channel it would be greatly appreciated I also just put up uh a baseball play goes off at 400 pm today baseball’s been outstanding for me so far Teddy uh on a five- two run up units this season how’s your uh baseball going I am uh 2613 and one with my last 40 selections does bait back to last year so up more than 35 units with the last 40 plays um it’s been good man we’ve been running we’ve been running good all all spring and we’ll see if we can keep it rolling again today one early start MLB action play for me as well Teddy let’s go straight to your big game let’s go let’s go straight to your big game breakdown while they work on Ralph uh and then we’ll bring him in and get some actionable info absolutely big game breakdown style let’s talk a little NBA Thursday night the Lakers and the Nuggets this one should be a whole lot of fun looking at the waiter talk live odd screen La minus one at most books now total sitting 216 and a half 217 as we speak and I want to talk about the total in this game last year in the postseason all right four playoff games two overs two unders all of them were lined between 222 and a half and 225 and a half those are postseason totals three regular season meetings this year all totaled at 230 or higher two unders one over the first two games of this series total 226 and a half closing total 223 closing total both those finished under last one finished way under the lowest scoring game of the bunch only 200 this was as low as 215 and a half 216 the lowest total by far of any of the nine meetings since the start of the playoffs last year we’ll call it an outlier total and in the postseason I’m always looking for outliers stuff that’s not likely to be repeated or stuff that’s been over adjusted I bet the Heat last night in part because of an outlier performance from Boston in game one the Celtics hit a franchise playoff record for threes what happened last night Miami hit a franchise play record for threes I’m not gonna be on the heat and game three for what it’s worth off topic let me get back on topic lowest total here in the last nine meetings by a wide margin and we know the pace here isn’t going to be fast La doesn’t play with Pace Den going to play with pace but we’ve got the quotes that tell us what we can expect LeBron James quote after game two we generated some great shots we missed a lot of shots at The Rim that we’ve been making throughout the course of the Season LeBron missed seven at The Rim tied for the most layups and dunks he’s missed in a playoff game since joining the Lakers Darin ham quote the film session was very revealing which side of the ball we struggled at we were great defensively offensively there was a lot of shots we wish we could have back I’m expecting better offensive efficiency from LA tonight particularly down the stretch LeBron we need to do a better job of closing it La struggled to make shots at times down the stretch when they blew that 20-point lead I think we see a little more offense tonight I think this total has been adjusted down too much and I like game three up and over the total two and0 NBA overs last night in the postseason I think we’ll see more of the tonight take advantage of that $5 customer appreciation day talk.com there’s your big game breakdown Lawrence back to you my friend there we go Teddy uh Dan do we have a rful sorted out well well Michaels get your ass in here my brother welcome to the show and we have to get straight into it now uh Seattle I was on them yesterday in the first five I lost almost made it there but uh was one of my losers you like them today Phil in well I’ve watched Castillo pitch a couple times they played their first series against Bieber and the Guardians and I watched them and you know he gave up 10 hits in that game but you look at his progression he has still had a very solid strikeout walk ratio this entire season in fact even before that last good game his strikeout walk ratio was 222 so he has great control he’s just his speed seemed a little bit off and he was giving up a lot of hits well in his last start he turned it around seven Innings two hits nine strikeouts one walk and you look at Haney on the opposite end it’s just a picture I want to fade at this point you know Haney has a 6.35 ra a 1.41 whip he’s averaging four and a third Innings per start and he has an 89 strikeout walk ratio the last three starts and in those three starts he’s only pitched 12 Innings then he’s given up three home runs the Rangers at home their last seven games they had one good hit game they had 12 hits against Oakland but even including that 12 hit game against Oakland they’re averaging Only 5.86 Hits per game since April the 10th I will back first five Castillo with Seattle minus a buck 20 are you worried all about the Mariners injury woses right now their bats were shut down last night they really didn’t hit that well in the series opener and they’ll be without JP Crawford who’s been hitting lead off for them without Cal Raleigh who’s been hitting third in the order for them and without those two last night man those bats were quiet for Seattle uh you worried about those injuries for the Mariners today or is it non-factor in this first five wager you know you look you look at um you look at Crawford I think he’s batting a buck 96 so you know he’s not the lead off Percy he’s not the person that’s been there you know and Texas may be without Seager as well who got beaned with a ball and his and his shin really swole up so aware of him it didn’t make my card Teddy because of those injuries but still worthy I think of taking a glance at him here Ralph Michaels joining us everyone and Ralph before we get to your next game I want to answer Austin Snow’s question because it’s a good one and one we’ve delved into on in the past PR if you’ve got time can you talk about adjusting bet sizes do you recalculate your uh dollars every day or week I make I am making money right now but feel nervous to increase my bet size in case I start losing Austin here is my answer and I’m happy for Teddy and Ral to wait in I readjust my bet size every single Monday now with that said it’s not an actual increase in bet size it’s an increase in bet dollar amount or a decrease in bet dollar amount but I am still betting the exact same percentage of my bank roll now I did a video you can find over at wager talk TV that goes into this uh much deeper but the bottom line is just keep to the same percentage of bank roll that way you can take advantage of exponential growth during your upswings and a madeup word de exponential growth during your downswings teddy do you have anything to add to that I thought you said it very well and again there’s a number of videos uh you’ve done videos I’ve done videos they’re available The Wager talk uh archive when it comes to like how to bet videos betting 101 betting 102 there’s it’s really an extraordinary resource we’ve all done a whole bunch of them over the years and I encourage you there are multiple videos out there from wager talk cappers talking about this very subject take a minute and go through that archive and take a look at some of the great content we put out uh uh about subjects just like this one Ralph Michaels NBA Denver and the Lakers what do you got for us you know when I sent it in on slack I wanted to do over for the first quarter I’m going to split that between over for the first quarter and over for the first half now we’re going to have a chart in the middle talking about 02 teams at home in the playoffs in game number three but how’s this this is very surprising to me when you have 02 teams at home they’ve averaged the teams have averaged 52.6 in the first quarter 51.6 in the second 49.9 in the 3D 49 nine in the seventh so the first half in the first round has averaged 104.2 points per game the second half has averaged 99.6 you would think a a home team would have to foul they don’t want to go down 03 so you’d have much higher scoring in the second half that has not been the case going all the way back to 2010 you look at the Lakers against winning teams in the first half against winning teams the Lakers averaging 1189 9 points per game in the second half they’re averaging 109 points 9.9 points per game more in the first half Denver on the road averaging 115.5 points per game in the first half and only 118.1 points in the second half and oh yeah by the way the first half total is 111 the first quarter total is 55 and a half and the full game is 217 so even though the results have said we have higher scoring first half when you have the O2 teams like all lines in the NBA the first half is a portion of the second half it’s about 48% versus 52 and oh yeah Denver in the first game of the series the total was 227 second game of the series 224 we are now 10 points less than the opening game of the series and Denver has shot only 43 and 46% those first two games I expect them to shoot significantly better today so a lot of hidden value in the Lakers Denver game over first quarter and over first half so our old friend Jay money is money is call this a trifecta spot uh I just came on with a big game breakdown talking about La Denver over full game Ralph likes it first quarter and first half let’s talk chart let’s talk chart Ralph because you’ve got a great one here talking about home round one of the NBA postseason what happens to the 0 and2 home teams returning s the O and2 teams returning to their home floor well you know we talk about home teams and and Teddy and pres we all know that a few years ago I mean Vegas catches up to things and remember the first quarter lines were basically the same as the full game and the first half were more than the full full game it’s not quite that bad today Orlando’s laying two and a half for the first half two and a half for the game Philly four and a half for the first half five and a half for the game the Lakers actually a two-point favorite in the first half where some of the lons are now picker Denver so that’s the biggest difference but look full game Guys these are 02 home teams in the playoffs since 2010 I did exclude the bubble year because you didn’t have the home court Edge 02 teams are 41 .2% since 2010 home favorites 47.6% home dogs 36.7% so do not base a bet saying you want these O2 home teams because they’re desperate folks they’re O2 teams for a reason but take a look on the right hand side I did the first quarter first half and full game scoring and the difference so when we look at the top in the blue you see that the 02 home team has outscored their opponents by one point per game in the first quarter 1.8 in the first half but full game they’ve been getting outscored by two points per game so you also have the breakdown for the first quarter and first half so while the first quarter and first half bets have not been as profitable as a stretch where they were three or four years ago it still breaks down and shows you that is value playing the shorter period of Time for That O2 home team and interesting on the bottom Teddy this one shocked me this does not apply because everyone has at least two days rest take a look at those 02 home teams on the very bottom when they only have one day of rest they are actually 0 and9 ATS with two days rest they’re 5050 at 21 and 21 against the spread so Ralph the thing that stands out to me about this chart uh and again if we just put it up there real quick uh for me thank you so look at Dan Dan’s on spot on he’s on the money on baby basically you’re talking about home favorites as even as as 50-50 you know it’s it’s a 10 and 11 I’m not going to call that a prevailing Trend all the money here which tells us that no Edge to Orlando or Philadelphia tonight but no negative for those teams but the negatives really come with the home dogs the teams that aren’t going enough to be favored and that tells us if you were thinking about about playing Miami in game three on Saturday maybe think again is that your takeaway as well the whole key here is home dog stink don’t bet him well Miami’s off the win Teddy so they’re not going to be 02 the only home dog would be new or New Orleans or maybe the Lakers the Lakers were one pick one I mean they that would be in that area as well but New Orleans is a team that was I believe a onepoint home dog you know at that time so uh I I would I would tread cautiously absolutely with those home dogs so you know it it’s a situation and FYI by the way in round two since 2014 they’ve gone eight- six against the spread round three they’ve gone four and five and in the NBA Finals 02 home teams have gone two and two so basically 5050 all the way on every round for full game for 02 home teams in the series Ralph Michaels Ralph I want to congratulate you on an outstanding start to the baseball season you are locked in and I love to see it congratulations what do you have going for our clients today well Baseball 13 and one run guys um uh thank you present teddy I appreciate it and I’ll tell you what it’s an early start you only got another hour so grab it it’s $5 uh you know there there’s there’s you know someone someone reached out to me and said well why are you putting out an early game for the $5 I’ll tell you what guys it’s my best game it doesn’t matter what time it’s starts the job is not to try to get a few extra sales the job is to get your customers the best play regardless of what time it goes and this is my best play so early afternoon start if you’re watching live grab it now $ five dollar and again everyone almost everyone has a $ Five Doll package because you know pre is a little late so his his isn’t up there yet but mine’s up I put mine up when Marco was yapping and I I lost track of the show yeah and and as Marco said it’s a great way to try some cappers read their writeups look at who you like and uh you know and go from there we certainly appreciate each and every one of you customers and this $5 customer appreciation day just shows you how much we care and how thankful we are for each and every one of you brilliant stuff Ralph Michaels Teddy IUD writes in our YouTube shorts uh PR I’m ordering a beef schwarma platter so IU I’m I’m having a schwarma today promise you that but it’s a chicken schwarma I never have beef schwers I haven’t had a beef schwarma in decades uh you you schwarma fascinating tell me more F okay so I get pickles kelaw both types uh Kyle anony joining us Kyle uh Kyle a question for you right off the bat and and and and look I’m not responsible for my dreams I had a dream about Sydney Sweeney last night what is that how should I feel about dreaming about Sydney Sweeney I mean she’s like could be my child I I I woke up I was disgusted with myself I was disgusted what what happened I think it’s more important just heard Vivian upstairs screaming at me oh GE well I okay I guess she knows what happened in the dream I guess you’ve already disclosed that information to her no I haven’t that’s the first time she’s heard about my dream was upstairs now I now I need this show to go extra long because I don’t want to go upstairs here’s the beauty of it Lauren this is how out of it I am I don’t even know who Sydney sweetie is no idea Kyle does yeah Kyle let’s go brother you like uh Perez at plus 160 over Matas fill us in yes so in the main event here we’ve got mathus Nicola here he’s minus 195 on the comeback you have Alex Perez plus 160 and mathus he is a well-rounded technical fighter overall you’ve got Perez who is a boxer with solid wrestling overall and when you’re looking at it there is an absolute pack here for mathus to go out there get the job done utilize that footwork utilize that hand speed skirt on the outside throw the combinations work at distance and that really has worked out well for him outpointing his opponents utilizing that hand speed and that’s done great for him but if you look at the other side here with Perez you know as I was saying press has got good boxing and he’s gonna have to crash the pocket he’s gonna have to move forward he’s gonna have to put pressure on make it dirty make it sloppy get in tight because that’s what Nicola doesn’t want to do he does not want to have that or he would look for some takedowns which Nicola does have but the thing about that is both of these guys do support a solid when it comes to takedown defense you’ve got Nicola he’s at uh 93% taked down defense rate you’ve got Perez 82% defense rate so I think this plays out on the feet and with this playing out of the feet I do think the leg kicks will be there for Perez I think he’s going to chop at them very early very often mixing them up in combinations and then also the fact that the big red flag for me on the Nicola side this is chin you know he really has durability concerns here where you can’t absorb shots very well you see that’s kind of why he wants to skirt on the outside throw combinations even get takedowns wants to protect that chin now the issue with it also is that he’s been rocked wobbled even in fights that he’s won he’s been hit pretty clean and dropped then you look at the other side here that he’s coming off of a brutal brutal knockout loss to Brandon royval last year this is his first fight back I do think there will be more tentativeness more guny in the pocket looking to kind of stay at range which again Perez needs to push forward and then lastly when you look at strength of schedule here you know mathus is kind of this guy that we’re all kind of looking at as hey he could be the next big thing he could be the next guy to kind of fight for a title but his rise has been very suspect in fighting very closely against middling guys in the division I mean you look at Tim Elliott and David dorak he won 29-28 and these guys I don’t rate them very high he knocked out matchell who matchell is on the Mount Rushmore of glast chins um and then you look at the other side Perez where Perez w three straight then he had some time off there were some of that but he lost his last three he lost to were uh Davis and figaredo former Champion Alejandra panta current champion and Muhammad MV who will probably fight for a title very soon so these are the guys that he’s fighting I think the value is absolutely on Alex Perez here I think he gets the job done and I do like that plus money at plus 160 look at the dog in the main event on Saturday night UFC Apex here in Las Vegas I do want to ask you all the other like totals one and a half two and a half this one’s four and a half rounds and you talked about the favorite having something of a glass chin would we bet this one under well the only I I kind of like that but if it’s kind of playing into the way that Maus would win would be Pitter pattering on the outside you know protecting his chin getting some legs into this fight going into the fourth and fifth round that’s his win condition I don’t think he goes out there and finishes Perez where I kind of do like if it was to be pres I wouldn’t mind the under here because I think that he can get the job done and I think the glin could be there but I think that’s why that number is so high is because that’s going to be the win condition for meus Kyle crisis averted Vivian just texted me saying that she will be my Sy swey tonight there you go see this is good this is good this role playing this is good yeah we’re role playing baby anything but you how great is my woman how great is my woman oh louder she is the best Jonathan P David onama where are we going here all right so in this fight here we’ve got Jonathan Pierce he’s minus 175 on the comeback you’ve got David onama plus 136 now Pierce he is a Relentless wrestler with high Pace on the other side you’ve got David onama explosive Striker with big KO power now there is no doubt that onama is a big time finisher with Big Time F power Big Time finishing Equity out of his 11 victories 100% finish rate seven by knockout four by submission so this guy’s going to go out there he’s going to push the pace he’s going to get in your face he’s probably going to be the more athletic guy as well as the more explosive guy in this particular fight here and what he’s going to need to do is spraw and brawl he’s going to need to defend the takedowns work at range utilize some of his big Power in his hands and that could be his opportunity to get a victory the issue here is his clear vulnerability with taking uh with defense uh on takedowns he just really struggles defending takedowns and that really lines up perfectly with what Pierce likes to do Pierce is a pressure wrestler he’s going to push forward this is going to be the Apex cage 30% less cage for for Pierce to cut the distance cage push look to push him up against the fence you also look at the fact that pierce he will absolutely go that path he averages slightly over five takedowns per 15 minutes very very high and that really tells me that he has the gas to really fuel repetitive takedowns throughout 15 minutes keep pushing that pace keep going forwards and that really is a big spot for him and if you look at onama and some of his recent where he has displayed this weakness and you know even though he just knocked out Gabriel Santos Gabriel Santos still got two was two for four on takedowns uh prior to that Nate lre who I don’t rate his wrestling very high he was three for four on takedowns and then even a couple years ago uh Mason Jones got eight takedowns those are the guys that really pushed that path and the path was available for him and I think Pierce is going to do that he’s going to push forward he’s going to look to do that and you also add in that onama does have suspect cardio you know he definitely can be extremely explosive early but he doesn’t carry that throughout the fight I think Pierce can really start to lay on him first round could get a little interesting but I think second and third are at a high clip will be on Pierce and Pierce will be able to bank those rounds so I do like Pierce to get this Victory but I do like Pierce via points uh it’s plus 225 right now I think it’s a likely path two of his last three wins were by decision I think he gets the job done via points so I’m going to pierce plus 225 via points here so it looks like the money is showing for the dog Kyle is there urgency here is this one you want to bet sooner rather than later or is this one you would wa closer to the fight before yes I I I I do I do think that this is going to be a spot where I do see some of that money slightly kind of coming in on onam there but I think that’s why I do like this pth here and finding that nice plus money and getting off that number so money line I don’t mind it but I do like the path for uh Perez to I’m sorry appears to get the job done uh via points awesome stuff Kyle Anthony everyone and guys Kyle has been profitable in UFC 11 of his last 12 events up 40 units uh over that time period uh Kyle knows UFC like women know Kyle what do you got to promote that was good that was good I I made you to use that tagline uh so I have uh for this Saturday 4% play up right now uh as everyone’s kind of saying here customer appreciation five bucks there if you do get that purchase there is inside that package a code for 50% off on my month package as well uh in the uh actually Al also in the um the package I do have the the full package for this Saturday there are three plays I’m going to have probably a fourth play of those three plays two of them are at plus money so we’re always finding that value we’re always finding that plus money and uh we’re getting the job done we’re seeing the board well beautiful stuff KL Anthony everyone guys we’re running out of time Dan it’s the Penalty Box segment let’s go okay everybody uh real quick I got two NHL bets to give out on the Penalty Box segment but before we get into that I have my first 5% NHL play for the playoffs it’s up it is for tomorrow make sure to bet this play it is a moneyline bet I am 75 perc in two years on these plays okay two games tonight I’m going to make this super easy uh both Tampa Bay and the New York Islanders are 0 and two both of them are coming home both of them are in must-win mode both of them are going to lose the series but both of them are likely going to win tonight one thing about NHL it is that third game when down o and2 coming home where a team who loses 4-1 or 4-2 finally gets a w Tampa Bay is minus 115 very important uh line change situation uh Tampa Bay will have last line change tonight that is huge that will finally free up their first line from kachu that should open up the ice a bit for them and they should get us a w as for the Islanders look they fell apart last game against Carolina up three nothing up 32 with two minutes to go and lost 53 I think uh they bounced back tonight they get a w and it is plus 140 that’s it for the Penalty Box segment there will be one tomorrow although I won’t be on the show The I’m G to tape it in about five minutes so Teddy will be forced to listen to me tomorrow at the end of wager talk today Teddy take us home time permitting time permitting of course lawren that’s gonna wrap it that’s going to wrap it for the Thursday edition of wager talk today like Lawrence teased we’ll do it again tomorrow same time same channel 9:00 a.m. here on the Left Coast new for you back East be sure to check out all the great content from wager talk including my opening line report Steve Merl NBA playoff previews we got NBA tip off we got NHL uh Puck time we’ve got the MLB show with Drew Martin there is an amazing amount of free content available daily from the wagertalk.com YouTube channel Please Subscribe if you haven’t done so more than 100 50,000 you have 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