2024 Wells Fargo Championship Picks, Research, Odds Guess | Myrtle Beach Classic Research, Preview

Pat Mayo takes a deep dive into stats at Fantasy National making early 2024 Wells Fargo Championship Picks with a first look and research for this week’s PGA TOUR event.

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SHOW INDEX

00:00 Intro
00:36 Quick Notes
2:22 Course Flyover
6:51 Course Stats/Notes
16:58 Event History
25:12 Field/Stat Model
34:36 Results
36:28 Guess The Odds
38:12 Myrtle Beach Classic

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the experience experience [Music] experience P Mayo experience experience welcome to the pat Mayo experience presented by Underdog fantasy we’re talking Wells Fargo Championship research the picks will break down the field and the course it’s an elevated event this week which means that there is an alternate tournament going on at the same time the first ever Myrtle Beach classic that one is full field 132 players with a cut and it’s very reminiscent of what we’ve seen at corales or Puerto Rico similar fields on the go in Myrtle Beach this year but it’s the first time that we’ve actually seen the course played on the PGA Tours we’ll do a brief Deep dive at the end on that if you want to just jump to that which would be really strange considering this a really good field and it’s the first time that we’ve had one of these big events in a while without Scotty sheffler I guess he’s not playing I I guess he’s having the baby soon so he’s deciding to take this week off I assume he’ll be back a week from now at the PGA Championship but that’s what we’re dealing with in terms of the field and all of the guys that you would expect to be playing are playing so Victor’s playing despite an injury will zad torus is playing despite an injury he had pulled out this week at the CJ cup ditto for sunjay who pulled out with an illness right before T off screwing 13% of the field on DraftKings this week uh he will be playing at Quail Hollow as well so that’s what we’re dealing with for the field itself I think it’s going to be 68 players we’ll see if that amends itself on Monday if a few more people get into the field I don’t think that’s going to be the case though and there’s no cut at this event which sucks it’s there’s only a few of the events that actually have a cut Bay Hill Genesis and Memorial which will be upcoming in about four weeks from now have a cut as a signature event the other nonaffiliated with a player so you have tigers tournament for the Genesis Arnold Palmer for beill and jack for Memorial they all have cut lines for them the other Signature Events do not so this one Heritage didn’t Travelers will not Pebble Beach did not so keep an eye out on that uh just in case you were wondering if it’s going to be top 50 in ties like it is for them it is not this week everyone is going to get all four rounds of play so let’s jump over to the course you probably remember Quail Halla because it’s been the Wells Fargo Championship played at this course every year since 2003 outside of 2017 when it hosted the PGA Championship in 2022 when it hosted the President’s Cup where they went to an ALT location I think it was Eagles Point in 2017 and TPC pomac in 2022 no maybe it wasn’t P he was like a i it doesn’t matter we’re not talking about that course doesn’t matter at all it’s a championship level course it’s just outside of Charlotte North Carolina hence why the 2017 PGA Championship we got all those TNT promos with Ric Flair just being like woo the entire time too bad seu didn’t win that week it would have been fantastic Tom fio re uh redesigned this in 1997 then he did it again prior to the 2017 PGA Championship it’s known for its challenging layout Treeline Fairways numerous water hazard and strategically placed bunkers that require Precision shot making from players the signature hole is the par 3 17th which requires a t-shot over a large pond protected by bun on either side and when you bet against Jason day and he ends up chipping it in from Beyond that bunker hitting the flag I don’t think it actually went in I think he hit the flag stick and it stopped next to the hole so we can go tap in for power in 2018 just sometimes that’s some of the luck that you encounter it’s 7559 yards as a par 71 poet trivial is overseed all of the base Turf is Championship Bermuda grass the average green size is 6,500 yard 61 bunkers on the course 7 holes with water in play and golfers need to be precise off the tea to avoid the thick rough and the strategically placed bunkers that line the narrow Fairways at Quail Hollow distance has proven to be more important than accuracy but some combination of the two obviously trumps all but you’ll see a generic bomber pop up out of nowhere here like I remember hitting Andrew Rivier Duo first round leader here Derek Ernst one here Luke list has been pretty good at this course in you know some years when the putter doesn’t absolutely abandon him that should alone show you how much driving distance matter it’s not the only path you’ll see a scatter shot of shorter to average length players that still gain a bunch off the tea so we’ve seen Molinari play well here answer came second to Rory one year Rory’s won here three times if you didn’t know Joel Damon was another one that was able to do that so you it’s not impossible for the shorter hitters to compete but with over 50% of approaches coming from Beyond 17 5 yards 31% from over 200 yards the extra distance off the te is just going to make these approach shots much much easier and there’s also a weird crossover between Quail Hollow with Riviera and Tory Pines despite being on the opposite Coast each each of them feature fast unique green complexes and each requires a ton of distance to cut down the course for the past decade hom JB Holmes and James have won at both courses day and H have both won at Tory Pines and the final three-hole stretch is Dub The Green Mile and it is the most difficult finishing stretch on the regular PGA Tours course rotation since 2003 there have been over 1,700 water balls across these three holes collectively they played almost a stroke overp power average in that time span and overall at the course as a whole there have been over 1,800 water balls at Quail Hollow since 2003 I’m trying to think about what the most famous one would be probably Rory dunking it into that little creek to the left of the 18th Fairway and then deciding was that in the water or was that just an unplayable I guess that I guess that wouldn’t be famous because it was it was just an unplayable ball that was like kind of nestled up in the hazard area near the creek and he decided to take the drop anyway cost himself the stroke as he was up by two put it on the green two putted for Bogey and that was good enough to beat Abraham answer in 2021 was the year that that happened let’s jump over to Fantasy national.com right now fantasy national.com Mayo in order to get yourself the 20% off you’ll get in listen the PJ Championship is coming up uh we work in conjunction with the PJ of America for this at Fantasy National so you’re going to end up I mean guess the the deal that you want to get is probably going to be I mean you could do the monthly next Wednesday and I think that brings you through the US op that’s probably the best one so you get 20% off the monthly and you get the I mean as an add-on you get the app to go along with it and all the new pick them tools as well uh there’s just all the different tools up a top uh you can see the over under that is what we’ve done for but any of the pick them sites uh I mean especially underdog if you want to go manually punch in a player a number they don’t have an API so you do have to manually go do it for yourself but if you use code Mayo at Underdog fantasy you’ll get a deposit match of up to a 100 bucks and you can use some of these tools at Fantasy National in order to try to rake in the money is the newsletter pick play was a winner again for this week that is four in a row we’ve hit in the newsletter is the official play on Wednesday evening you can sub to the newsletter for free as well taking a look at the course qua Hollow as I mentioned it’s a very long course to reiterate it’s just under 76 100 yards uh nothing’s going to come easy you can see one two and three 18 is the toughest hole on the course 17 is the second toughest and 16 is the fourth toughest fortunately 14 and 15 the two easiest holes on the course the par five number 15 is 577 yards has almost a 2% Eagle rate and then 14 is a potentially drivable 344 yard power 4 which has a birdie rate of over 35% and Eagle rate of 1% if we just kind of divy this up a little bit by par 3es par fours and Par fivs the average par three is going to be 27 yards this week and they’re all pretty tough except for number four number four is 84 yards birdie rate of almost 133% I mean that’s calling it E I mean is the fifth easiest hole on the course yet still plays over par uh because it has a 16% bogey rate to a 13.7% birdie rate whole 17 can be a deal breaker it’s the second toughest hole on the course owner of an eight almost a 9% bogey rate uh which is sorry that’s incorrect where are we at here yeah it has a 177% fogy rate sorry and 8% Double Or Worse rate so this can take you out of the tournament and for the love of God do not start Victory lapping anyone coming down the stretch because The Green Mile can absolutely eat them up you just cross your fingers hope it goes well and that they don’t find themselves in the water on one of these holes and just make an absurd number uh yeah so almost a 177% bogey rate the number six is the par three that is the second toughest of the power 3es although it doesn’t have the massive double rate it does have a 23% bogey rate to only 7% birdie rate is the sixth toughest hole on the course now Windam Clark won last season and played number 17 at one under he played the part of Threes at two under over the course of the weekend I mean that is going to get it done that’s how you end up winning by so much over Xander schafle a year ago a breakthrough for Windam Clark it’s funny to think about how we perceive Windam Clark at this point but this was the site of his breakthrough win at a signature event at a big boy course and then he would go on to win the US Open then again at a historic Pebble Beach course uh even though it was only 54 holes we’ll call it like a half win a live win if that’s something that you want to go with earlier this season then just started coming second place to Scotty Sheffer every single week when Scotty went on his tear the par fours the average distance is 456 yards three of the four toughest holes on the property are par fours and they’re all on the back nine with an overpow rate more than triple the birdie rate so you can see it right here number let’s see number 18 as I mentioned is the toughest hole on the course a bogey rate of almost 30% which is just asinine number 16 the fourth toughest hole on the course a bogey rate of almost 24% and then you have number 11 a bogy rate of over 26% and a birdie rate of only 7% so those are the three toughest holes 11 16 and 18 at the course the power fives are three of the four easiest on the course uh you only have one that’s number 16 or sorry number seven sorry uh 546 yards with an eagle rate of almost 4% that’s the one that you’re going to get uh although there is a 10 almost 11% bogey rate and a 3% bogey or Worse rate so it can go sideways it’s it’s put it this way it’s like a 5050 percentage you’re going to birdy the hole but there’s a chance you make a real crooked number where that’s not really in play at the other par fives number 10 Double Or Worse rate less than a percent even number 15 Double Or Worse rate less than a percent this is number 17 has the second highest birdie percentage of any hole on the course it has the highest Eagle rate but things can go sideways if you find yourself in some of the trouble Windam Clark birdied two par fives birdi the two fives on the back nine Thursday Saturday and Sunday and when you’re playing the par 3s as well as he did then it’s going to be a pretty easy victory for you as long as the putter comes along for the ride let’s take a look at how the top five finishers have done at this course and how their Strokes gained is separated you can see that off the tea is very close approach and putting except for at Craig Ranch last week where it was almost a flat distribution between driving approach and putting but you can see that it’s just it’s very close uh versus a lot of other courses where it’s let’s see Point so7 Strokes per round off the T 1.12 on approach so you it’s around 40% more but sometimes you’ll see approach you know three times four times what off the tea is got to bring your putter on with you and this has been a course over the years where the has been a breakthrough spot and we’ve seen that time and time again not so much recently but this is where Rory got his first win this is where Ricky got his first win it is where Windam Clark just got his first win so you know going back through time we’ve seen that a lot the average shot distribution very it’s weird because on paper although the course oh I guess Windam Clark won at minus 19 last year it’s not like this is the world’s hardest course uh guys if they run a hot Putter and play great can take it apart especially if you make the Eagles on the power fivs and don’t give them all away on the power 3es but the way that the average shot distribution and the way that The Strokes gain numbers actually play out are very reminiscent to what we saw at Craig Ranch this week which is kind of funny because you have over over a majority of approach shots are going to come from Beyond 175 yards this week very few short wedges into the green I guess that’s where it kind of passes Craig Ranch where there were a few of those cuz a lot there’s a few of those power fours where some of them you can get to other ones you have to leave yourself in that like 30 to 40 yard range to go through but very few shots realistically between 100 and 150 yards you know 20% from 150 to 175 23% 175 to 2 31% of shots coming from over 200 yards the cut line a year ago was at even before that it was three but you have to worry about that this year because there is no cut driving accuracy way down that’s how you get the shorter hitters into play at this course is going to be through driving accuracy because on you know half the time so that’s something in the pickham game that we’re probably going to try to leverage this week and take a look at driving accuracy higher or lower on Underdog fantasy number of Fairways hit and hopefully we can try to find someone and maybe I’ll try to do that more research for and that’s what I’ve been doing in the Wednesday newsletters to really put a ton of research into that pick and play for Thursday morning or Thursday afternoon just a Thursday slate of picks that you can go through Kenny and Byron will have their Underdog slip as well on the Monday night show on fantasy golf degenerates I believe that’s hit every week since Byron joined the show so I would recommend that you tune into that even it’s just a tale the pick them entry again you get the match deposit of up to 100 bucks with code Mayo at Underdog fantasy the link is down in the description if you want to support the show you can go do that just like you can smash a like and sub to the channel and share the show around and leave a rating and review on the audio podcast all of that stuff goes such a long way to helping the show but honest to God if you could deposit on Underdog fantasy using Code Mayo that is the single greatest thing you could do for the show in order to help scrambling is going to come into play but scrambling percentage is you know frankly a little bit lower here because The Greener regulation percentage only 62% slightly lower than tour average but the driving accuracy 54% versus 62% on your regular big greens mean three put average is going to be a little bit higher uh the average driving distance is over 300 yard at this course where the average Tour event is only 283 there’s not a lot of forced layups here just grip it and rip it maybe it’s tough because I was thinking about Jake knap and I feel like such a goober for he was one of the Final Cuts from my list I when I did the research show last week nap kept coming up when I wrote the newsletter on Wednesday evening I even saw the crossover with PGA National and that really surprised me but nap was the one who came out near the top of that list as well of players in the field and listen I’m recording this before the conclusion of the tournament even the start of the fourth round and naps likely not I I don’t even think he’s done his Saturday round yet as I’m recording this and he’s not winning pendrith is winning at the moment but you see him up there and one of the main things is you know he played really well at Tory Pines that had a correlation to Mexico and it’s one of these courses where if the rough isn’t going to be up as much as it’s been in the past it did seem like they shaved it down a little bit a year ago that if you can just go full hog with your driver here and not worry about hitting the Fairway those seem to be Jake naap courses when you get to Bay Hill and there’s water everywhere and he starts spraying it around then he’s going to be 58 overpar but ones where you can just dial in with your driver and hit it as far as you want those seem to be the Jake naap courses so I’m very interested in what he is going to be up to this week as I believe he’s in the field and it’s going to be a fun week betting without Scotty around H when we get to guess the odds it’s you have to kind of remind yourself going back through through time about how he is going to be playing let’s take a look at the field this week for Quail Hollow again it’s only 63 players 68 players sorry Woodland and Dunlap over the past 24 rounds come in with the fewest amount of Strokes gain Nick Dunlap has actually performed really well he’s becoming the new Matt Wallace where if they’re playing in Weak field events then they’re actually going to be pretty good the moment you put them in a strong field event they absolutely suck but I do actually want to hearken back and take a look at what people have done at this tournament in the past I mean I do that every single week I don’t know why I wouldn’t do it right now almost skipped it on you here so if we take a look back at last year Wendy c ends up winning this tournament at 19 under par beating Xander who I believe was at 16 Harris English tied for third Fleetwood Connor hom Sun JM McCarthy and Todd so a lot of the shorter hitters McCarthy and Todd popping up here and then Ricky Fowler Gary Woodland Sheamus power so not your classic bombers I don’t know if that’s going to be something that changes um over time but just frankly it was surprising to see some of these guys still around here’s how Windam Clark did it gained nine Strokes on approach and seven and a half putting didn’t lose around the green just marginal basically the entire bar graph that we saw about what to do at this tournament is exactly what Windam Clark did a year ago and was pretty Untouchable from that regard you can see everyone else almost te to Green perfect across the board Harris Engish was the only player inside the top 10 realistically who lost Strokes anywhere in the four major category so a Balan game from T to Green is going to be necessary plus distance is a plus for you but not absolutely necessary from what we have seen at this course Harris English lost 2.2 Strokes off the te and that is the only red that you see on the screen of anyone from Cory Connors and up Connor even gained on the greens last year it be a little bit ently it’ be nice if Cory Connors could G a few Strokes going forward that would be very nice Windam Clark shot a 63 on Saturday that was the round of the tournament and he was the only golfer to card 68 or better in all four rounds seven of the top five of the top seven Putters in the field all finished inside the top eight all seven of them finish inside the top 25 so you can see Cory Connors has not been a good go he gain Strokes putting at the players and the Heritage was weird for him like he lost he broke even with the field off the te and gained margely on approach we need to get Connors back to this level here I’m going to open up uh Genesis as well because we’ve seen so many crossover winners just in case we forget what happened there that year I mentioned Luke list at qua Hollow he was second at Riviera this year Hideki ended up winning he’s had some nice run at Quail Hollow be it in the Wells Fargo or at the PGA Championship Justin Thomas is another one we’ve never really seen Klay play all that well at Wells Fargo which I thought was some somewhat surprising I think him and burns are the two see had a t 21 in a miscut PGA Championship in 2018 he was T20 or 2017 he was t33 so nothing much coming from him on that front he’s just one that really Pops to mind we saw Harris English third at Wells Fargo a year ago seventh at Riviera this year maybe this is the spot for all hogi that would actually have to tell you that Tom hogi is in the field let’s see is hogi in the field he is in the field this week I think he rallied to make the cut I didn’t play him this week I do think Colonial is going to be the spot for him but knowing my luck he’s not going to play in that tournament uh so I might have to back him here at super long odds let’s see what else happened at Riv this year hadwin was up there but I don’t believe he’s in the field Z I mean if the back injury isn’t actually a problem for him I know it caused him to withdraw this week he is a great look at this tournament I know he does have the one career win but this would be a nice step up for him cam young is well I mean you have to put him on the radar he’s played really well at Riv over the years you can see had a 16th this year despite a very shaky first round where he broke even he was one over um and then he was second there another one of the years I have no idea I mean I’m going to get suckered into Cam young either way if he’s over 30 to1 I’m probably going to bet him although and when I do the guess the odds he might not be in terms of the odds coming off a bad week at Heritage maybe that will be somewhat instructive for us that maybe he won’t end up being very high up on no he was second here two years ago so now he’s going to be yeah second and 59th um a year ago so and 2022 was not was n at that so that’s something to keep in mind Avendale Avendale is that what it was called let’s see here let’s just click on it and find out avanel Farms TPC pomac um so when you go back and do your research remember that this was not Quail Hollow that year and apparently anner band leiri was still on the PGA tour at that point so who else finished very highly at the Genesis senson senson was inside the top five of the first round a year ago don’t really recall what he’s been up to I feel like he has one or two good rounds in him a tournament these days and then he does absolutely nothing the driving has been atrocious the iron game had been very good until the Heritage strangely enough and the putter actually came back to life just a little bit and he played very well across the board Tia green though at the Genesis Invitational at Riviera this year so even back to last year Ricky played pretty well Thomas played pretty well let’s go back and take a look as I mentioned 20 20 22 H won but that is not where he got his victory hom did win at this course in 2019 mind you Rory has won at this course three times in his career coming off a win at the Zurich as well so you got Rory Victor Woodland and Woodland actually has some pretty decent results here Xander a second and a T14 the last time that they played these it’s I mean he’s been swimming around that victory for a while now it feels like When the Levy Breaks he’s going to end up winning you know two or three tournaments over a two-month stretch just he has to get over that hump first a lot of guys played really poorly at Heritage who had been coming in with pretty decent form and see at he was Houston where Woodland actually performed very well but that’s been sort of an outlier for the course of the rest of his season because he just been dropping four minus four on the green minus three on the green minus six on the green he finally had a good approach week and then that never materialized again so he had like two good weeks he had a decent week with his irons done a fantastic week with his irons I believe that was the best of his career it’s the third best of his career uh it’s funny that the 2023 Genesis Invitational was actually the best approach week of his career at plus 9.7 but plus 8.8 was the best that Woodland was going to do but that was really it for him we can see Brian Herman who did pick up a win in this tournament in 2017 when it was not played at this course was played at Eagles Point did have a top 20 here Poston t26 Fleetwood has a fifth and 14th the past two turns at this venue I mean technically this would be his breakthrough win if he was ever gonna get one and how did he play he played pretty well at Augusta if I recall he was third at the master seventh at Valero didn’t do much of anything at Heritage it it was 10th of Genesis earlier this year maybe is Tommy time probably not going to be Tommy time but maybe it could be Tommy time probably a very easy way to talk yourself into it if that’s the route that you wanted to go Max H won in 2019 how has H been doing obviously he was in the final he was in the final groupings of Augusta ended up coming in third terrible the next week at the Heritage he’s been playing some like decent golf a lot of it was fueled by the putter but maybe this is a time where we can go back to him he came in with almost zero form uh into Riv earlier this year and ended up coming t16 and even to go back and look at some of these winners like Rory came in with no form uh entering play in 2021 he’d come in with consecutive miscuts and no standout round but he was good in each of the top eight finishers that year gained at least 1.7 Strokes with their putter five of them gained at least 1.3 Strokes when H came in uh when he beat Damon by three that year he had no form coming in three straight finishes outside the top 40 so he comes in with a little bit more it doesn’t really M make that much of a difference if you come in with form historically at this course at least or at this tournament uh or not so I think that’s pretty interesting to look at when we think about the history of the course using fantasy national.com once again fantasy national.com / Mayo hit the description if you want to go sign up now Wednesday if you do it on Wednesday and get the 7-Day weekly you will get both this tournament and the PGA Championship we got a ton of great content coming up for you or if you do it yeah the monthly we’ll probably bring you through the US opener at least get you to US Open week using Code Mayo on the monthly getting 20% off with the slash Mayo at the end of everything so let’s take a look at the short term right now in terms of Strokes gain coming in we talked about a full T to Green game so full T to Green over the past 24 rounds hii is number one ludvig number two Xander see W eot feno Kirk btia Justin Thomas Wendy C then you got Shane Lowry Cory Connors Rory Glover and the gala this would be a really like standout win for the gala baa as well I mean they have wins on the PGA tour B actually has two right now but theal is just playing fantastic golf he’s top 10 or does seem how has he done here his t-56 last year figured out the greens figured out the approaches couldn’t drive and couldn’t chip but you can see the driving has been immaculate it wasn’t at a less than driver course at the Heritage but at all the Big Driver courses he has been playing fantastically so far this season I do want to take a quick look at Farmers as well because I had mentioned along with Riv that is one who are guys who popped up there there’s nap there’s Lashley Lashley weirdly enough has actually had some decent run at well Wells Fargo at least once he’s had a decent run at Wells Fargo that was last year and he had a terrible final round I believe to take him completely out of contention but he was t27 where is Old Nasty Nate Lashley not that I want to play Lashley yeah he was 75 in the final round yeah 68 66 I remember him being up at near the top of the leaderboard and then going away it’s funny that he was able to cross back over but in this past three years at this past three turns at this course an Immaculate amount of Strokes gained on approach which is frankly shocking I don’t believe he is in the field though so it’s probably not worth your time going to look at him Jagger and feno both inside the top six you obviously have ludvig inside the top 10 Patrick Rogers probably finds himself in this tournament as well inside the top 10 you have H and Hideki Taylor Montgomery withdrew this week I don’t believe he’s in the field but you see baa up there too Willie Z top 15 we know that he’s had fantastic run at Tory Pines over the course of his career he lost in that playoff to Luke list who once again is a name that continues to pop up I don’t know if I really want to back list cuz he he screwed me so awfully with a push and when a round one match up with booser because he actually finished 15th for the day in putting which you just don’t expect to happen for him Willie Z has played in the Wells Fargo Championship once that was in 2021 at this course and missed the cut um wasn’t good but he’s a bit of a better player now did not play well at Heritage but all of the long all of the long difficult courses that they’ve played so far this season Willie Z has been good 13th at Farmers second at Riv fourth at API and Ninth at the Masters the shorter easier courses I guess the one outlier to that was Houston and he lost seven strokes putting that week gained 3.1 TD green so that would be the one longer harder course where he did not play well the shorter courses that we’ve seen so far on tour he’s been terrible miss the cut at Sony missed the it was 34th at AMX 44th at Heritage miss the cut at the Players not his Jam you want long you want tough that’s what we’re getting this week potentially we got we got long we’ll see if the tough part actually comes through with will zures but I mean he’s someone you’re probably going to want to back this week and hopefully his back can hold up to the scrutiny of what’s going on let’s shrink down this sample a little bit more and go to pass 12 rounds TD green obviously these will update after the conclusion of the Byron Nelson to see if a few more guys either qualify for this field or played in this field and we’ll get the update so past 12 rounds Becky baa ludvig sewu Lowry are the top five T green Wendy C Glover Kirk Xander and kittama actually comes in that has to be all ball striking has to be oh no it was actually full I mean outside of Heritage it was all ball striking has he played he must have played here last year missed the cut a year ago was good at aanl firms but that is not really all that we care about but he’s another one who’s played well at like longer longer more difficult courses than in the past but his chipping is just so so bad uh but the driving and approach has been high quality if you can ever find the putter then maybe we could be on to something with him this week Taylor Moore is another one that I would take a look at 16th uh Tia green has played Riv pretty well I think he’s played here all right as well theala Henley Rory I mean this might be the the place where Rory actually just kind of gets it all going back together where’s Taylor Moore Taylor Moore 58th at Heritage that ain’t no good and when you lose six Strokes putting and five Strokes on approach that’s going to happen to you 20th at the Masters second in Houston 12th at valbar you know it’s been off and on between putting and approach but he has the makings of putting it all together Tia green wise again maybe not an outright win type of thing if he breaches triple digits we have seen Derrik Ernst here win I think Roberto Castro won here as well James Han woned a huge number one year so it’s not the craziest thing I think I mean hell Windam Clark won at 80 to1 at this course last year so long shots have been very much in play the at this venue over the years so maybe he is the one that you could go look at from way down the list uh I mean theala is not going to be way down the list but if you get him above 30 maybe that’s a good shout as well so kittama Taylor Moore btia would probably be the ones to look at from way down the list I think Glover won here but it was like a while ago like a long long time ago back when you know he did he win the US Open here he did win the US Open here that’s that’s exactly the one that he won US Open championship in 2009 no that wasn’t he won at Beth Page where else has he won in his career he won at Windom he won at St Jude last year trying to think of all the other places where he’s won he won the Wells Fargo in 2011 at the scor that’s what I was thinking of but he won at Beth Page in 2019 John Deere in 2021 totally forgot about that one uh maybe I mean he’s been lingering around Tia green so it wouldn’t be crazy he did win twice last year and almost made the rider Cup team so it wouldn’t be inconceivable that would happen for him but either way uh I probably wouldn’t be going there in case he just really fires up the Putter ludvig ludvig and baa as like the Breakthrough guys that we’re talking about or theala or Cam young maybe just make a card of those four guys and hopefully it works out and the trend that we see like almost every other year continues where this becomes the big big boy breakout spot for a lot of players when we think about the overall modeling let’s see what I got going on for qu qu Hollow here Quail Hollow total driving Quail Hollow needs fixing oh that’s not good uh let’s turn that on we’ll reload the page so we can have that instead of our Strokes gain model and just see if there’s some other names that comes up I wonder why I need to fix this that’s interesting let’s see what we got in here off the te 20% approach 20% around the green 10% okay that’s fine to look at approach 175 to 200 at 5% 200 plus driving distance 10% car five is 10% 450 to 500 10% and putting 5% all right so let’s try to figure this out a little bit CU we’ve overweighted driving off the tea at 20% and driving distance at 10% I do like that 60 66% off the te 33% driving distance if we’re just going to put in driving 20% for approach but we have two proximity numbers as well I want to get rid of putting and I want to put in 5 to 10 and 10 to 15 putting because I think that just tends to be a bit more sticky than just overall Strokes game putting so we go 5 to 10% and we’ll go 10 to 15% as well 10 to 15 feet sorry we’ll wait those both at 5% get those up to 5% dial back on 450 to 500 a little bit get rid of Strokes gain power fives just in general and we’re going to put in par 3es over 200 I’m sorry 200 to 225 see if that helps us out a little bit that again can be somewhat of an approach stat as well so we’re going to go and get rid of needs fixing we fixed it Quail Hollow all caps to show that we’re serious this time around and we’ll update the model and see what that tells us over the past 24 rounds spell Quail wrong as well that’s always fun always good news neon lap worst guy on the field ludvig the best guy in the field that’s what happens when you take out Scotty Sheffer that’s always good to know uh Rory Xander feno Clark OE matama theala Victor is still up there shockingly enough sewu comes in at number 10 then you got Connor spe there’s kyama again Fitzpatrick Jagger hogi at 16 Kirk horel and Lucas Glover number 20 Thomas Camy young what’s hurting Camy young the around the green is terrible the proximity from 200 yards is terrible over the past and this doesn’t include Master stats cuz we don’t have those your best players from Beyond 200 yards Xander F out ludvig Fitzpatrick and Connors then hogi Glover btia btia checks a lot of these boxes terrible at putting but maybe I mean he’s from the Aries from North Carolina maybe he’s got these greens figured out maybe he’s got them in his back pocket who knows what’s going on with him let’s shrink down the size and take a look at past 12 rounds now to see if anyone does stick out a little bit more and it’s still ludvig number one even over the past 12 so it’s ludvig OE Hideki Clark feno those are the top five Xander Rory sewu the gala shank all of a sudden propels himself up I’m guessing that he’ll end up looking pretty good after the Byron Nelson he’s not like exactly in the mix uh in terms of trying to win this tournament as we come down the stretch but he is having a pretty decent week he finishes let’s see he finish he’s t21 going into the final round 12 under finished you know he could have had a better day on Sunday could have used a better day at of old Adam shank who I did bet on this week he’s minus 3 I don’t think that he’s going to end up winning the tournament but you know sometimes you don’t win that just happens I think that if you’re watching the show and if you bet on golf you probably know that as well see Xander Rory SEIU any other new names that pop up kittama remains up there at 12 Justin Thomas is still 16 Fleetwood is 18 Bez there’s Taylor Moore he’s number 24 Glover is 15 so it’s a lot of the similar names that continue to pop up over here before we start talking about the Myrtle Beach Classic we got to guess the odds for Quail Hollow no Scotty in the field really opens this up for everyone when you don’t have a guy who’s plus 250 to win a golf tournament of 68 players then I would guess that Rory coming off a win and being a three time champion at qua Hollow is gonna be the favorite for this week I have him at 9 to one I have Xander schafle who was second a year ago playing some good golf coming in at 10 to one those two as the favorites and I have one tier down I have ludvig at 14 wam Clark at 18 which is a pretty good number to be proect he’s 18 I bet that and Patrick Klay at 18 to one worth noting no one has ever repeated as champion at qua Hollow but Windam Clark just has a knack for the Signature Events and he has won here before and has the skill set in playing Great Golf coming in so those are the two highest then the next tier down after that I have another group of three h Victor both 22 to1 Hideki 25 to1 now that I think about it Hideki is probably 22 to1 Victor is probably in the next tier down with Fitzpatrick morawa spe and cam young I have those guys in the 28 to 33 range they might all get compacted down to sub 30 to1 spe has no business being in this range but he just continues to exist in this range so just because it’s more reason just to not bet on Jordan smed if he’s going to be 25 to 30 to1 because he is not showing any glimpses of being in that region whatsoever with his play over the past few months the next level down I have theala Fleetwood and Thomas anywhere between 33 and 40 to1 maybe fow ends up jumping into there but Justin Thomas like Jordan SM ends up being overvalued in the market just a little bit let’s talk about the Myrtle Beach Classic the NBC is being contested at the Dunes Golf and Beach Club 7347 yards a par 71 a field of 132 players but that is not yet finalized because we have a lot of players in this field like CZ and Billy horel are both listed in both Fields I believe that they have qualified uh once we finish up at byon Nelson through the Aon five swing the guys that have qualified for the next signature event I believe that they’re both going to be in it uh this course opened in 1948 with a Robert Trent Jones sonor layout it was only the second course on the Strand the Dunes Golf and Beach Club has been at or near the top of every Myrtle Beach Golf Course list throughout the years the dunes has hosted the US Women’s Open the finals of the PGA Tour Q school and six Senior PGA championships although it’s located like barely like a block from the beach and with most the whole subject to the ocean breeze the style of course isn’t Seaside or Lynx as you can see it has a woodland Parkland and Marshland element to it with the ninth being the only hole on the course where player catches the glimpse of the Atlantic Ocean which is crazy considering its proximity and wind effect from the ocean strange that they would design it that way but here we are and listen it’s highly rated so I guess they’re doing something right most of the green complexes are elevated and extremely challenging as a result of large and deep Augusta white sand bunkers surrounding these elevated putting surfaces uh other Robert Trent Jones trademarks are the runway tea boxes and generous dose of strategic Fairway bunkering requiring well-placed t- shot so I have no idea if this course is going to play easy or hard 7,300 yards is a par 71 doesn’t sound daunting but people who have played this course said it can be difficult I guess it all really depends on the setup holes 11 through 13 are called Alligator Alley number 11 features a dramatic approach to the green that is protected by two bunkers and bordered by the Singleton the Singleton swash on the right don’t go right the 12th is a par three that features a doer die carry over the swash while the par five 13th is known as water loot it is mer Beach’s most famous challenge is a 90° dog leg right curious to see with the distance that you guys have off the tea and where they set up that t- box how much of the corner they can actually try to take on or whether or not they will have to lay up to the actual dog leg Parts part part of the hole without actually firing at the green uh Robert Trent Jones’s son ree Jones redesigned this in 2003 2013 and 2018 in 2013 the club successfully converted All Greens from A1 bent grass to Ultra Dwarf Championship Bermuda surfaces and offer the championship te’s the championship course now measures it can play up to 7450 yards uh but it doesn’t necessarily do that the scorecard this week is not saying that it’s going to be doing that in the summer of 2018 ree Jones undertook a complete restoration of all the bunkers on the golf course to reclaim that historic element that his dad put in place all the bunkers were rebuilt with new drainage liners and sand they’re large undulating and have multiple pinable areas these are the greens that I’m talking about that can dramatically affect the strategy and difficulty of the Hole uh pay attention to where the flag is on the approach because there are consequences to missing in the wrong spot basically as it’s been described to me and seeing the fly over the course as you just did basically says that you you can make easy pars at this course but if you’re going to get aggressive and you miss you start to bring some very crooked numbers into play so that’s what we’re seeing with the Senior PGA Championship with Q School how they have this design for the TP listen obviously this isn’t a signature event it is not the strongest field the PGA Tour has to offer but these are fantastic high level in the world players so I think they could probably kind of go Hog Wild on this I I am genuinely curious and interested to see how difficult this course plays so we’ll have a better sense of how this looks in the future if we just take a look I mean I have the Quail Hollow model rated into now as I mentioned it’s 132 players top 65 and ties make it I’m not going to make an overall new thing for this in terms of modeling but what I will look at is just Strokes gain total over the past recent form looking into it hell’s been the best player but he’s going to qualify for qu Hollow so outside of that you have Justin laow Kevin TW I mean is it going to be TW day who knows maybe he un storms the board Sunday at uh Craig Ranch but he has some pretty good results I mean obviously we don’t know what’s going on at Byron Nelson but he enters inside the top 10 going into the final round he was third in Puerto Rico so that’s looking pretty good Chan Kim missed the cut this week so he will obviously drop Ryan Mor Siz probably playing at Quail Hollow so Davis Thompson Ben Griffin Matty Schmidt uh MAV mcney these are all the type of guys sh Kim McLure messenger Evan hammerling Vic Perez Rey Stevens maybe this could be Stevens course they lengthen it a little bit we know he has a proclivity for courses that are over 7400 yards that’s over the past 12 rounds if we just take a look at Tia green of those guys it’s Ryan Moore Kevin Yu maybe Kevin Yu flop lag week he missed the cut on the number didn’t play all that poorly could make a putt to save his life but maybe we get him going here Kelly craft obviously playing good golf he might actually qualify for qua Hollow if he has the top five finish between Zurich and qua Hollow maybe he ends up getting in but Ryan Moore Kevin Yu juel Dam are your top three in Strokes game ta green coming in if my guy lonto lonto missed the cut on the number as well and the ball striking continued to be great can’t chip can’t putt four ninth Tia green over the past what is this 24 12 rounds and it’s going to only improve after this week against these jabronis and then fourth in ball striking 111th in the field around the green 123rd in putting will that take you out of this tournament probably but if he just has some luck in those areas he could be pretty deadly at this course overall ball striking Kevin U Damon Ryan Moore lonto Kelly craft are your top five Ben Martin having another good week maybe it’s another look for him oh Novak is here as well and he’s having a fantastic week at Byron Nelson but Chan Kim Ben Martin Novak burger and Kevin DH round out the top 10 in terms of ball striking the only guys that can like somewhat Putt in that mix are Ben Martin he’s inside the top 30 Kelly craft can kind of putt the other guys all outside the top 100 in this field on the greens over the past 12 You’ think that burger would be better but he just ain’t at the moment Ryan Moore and Chan Kim are the only ones decent around the green and like Novak is just worse than field average around the green again all the other guys are outside the top 40 ball striking wise math mcney is actually the one who rates out the best kind of across the board he six t to Green but he has no glaring deficiencies anywhere at the moment toasty tried to Rally back to make the cut but just couldn’t do it in Texas and maybe he can get going as well other guys you see up here norlander having a good week he was 6,500 on DraftKings this week maybe he is a look towards the back end CT Pam withdrew with an injury so I don’t know whether or not he’s going to end up staying in this field so keep an eye out for him Alex SMY having another good week as well had a good week at Puerto Rico having a good week at CJ cup did not have a good week at the team tournament but those are two weak field events like we’re seeing this time around that maybe he can start to put something together I keep saying Puerto Rico I apologize it was the Corrales and puana in Dominican Republic sometimes all these alt events mix together in my mind obviously this one is going to be a little bit different than the one in Puerto Rico and the one on Dominican Republic those are past palum greens these are not you have the coastal influence although you do seem to have that this week as well since we don’t exactly know who’s going to be finalized in this tournament I’m not going to guess the odds not that you probably care but some of those names that I just talked about are the ones that I’m probably going to be looking to try to play some doubles with at the top or even just independently try to outright bet on if DraftKings releases a really nice tournament for Myrtle Beach I’ll play that hopefully Underdog gets in the pick them game and then we got a sto and maybe we can really try to Deep dive in and figure out which of our players are going to be the ones to look at if anyone has a general sense of how this tournament could play It’s almost like the Fairway look that we’re getting Fairways higher or lower for qua Hollow maybe that there’s an angle that we can tackle on Underdog for the Myrtle Beach Classic as well the MBC that is the research show for this week two tournaments for the price of one try to keep it snappy for you as well trying to get everything done in less than an hour once again you can subscribe to Fantasy national.com Mayo to get yourself 20% off get the weekly membership on Wednesday you get both these tournaments and the PGA Championship for the price of one three tournaments for the price of one at Fantasy national.com Mayo Cod Mayo at under fantasy will get you a deposit match of up to 100 bucks deposit 100 have an extra 100 total 200 you’re already a winner and there’s nothing you can do to support the show more than using Code Mayo for your deposit at Underdog fantasy link is in the description more of a deep dive will be coming in Monday’s newsletter and Wednesday’s newsletter all completely free Please Subscribe down in the description or on substack under Mayo media newsletter all right smash like sub to the channel leave a raer review on the podcast well you are here I will see you next time experience experience