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hello ladies and gentlemen welcome to calls calls this is the 2024 Byron Nelson dayto dive show we have a lot to get into we’re going to start with the forecast for mcken Texas we’re going to move to the prior leaderboards figure out exactly what metrics and what skills play best at TBC Craig Ranch and we’ll end it off with a little bit of research that I posted to social media and the data behind that research so we got a lot of great stuff to get into so let’s not waste any more time all statistics provided tonight and every night are from fantasy national.com it is the best golf Analytics tool out there for your money go check out fantasy national.com you will not regret it in the description of the video there are links to all the social media first off my X and Instagram where as I alluded to I posted some research earlier today around the past three winners of the Byron Nelson at TPC Craig Ranch uh KH Lee twice and Jason day the performance or the metrics that they had been performing well in leading into their win here at TBC Craig Ranch and also the players in the field this week that fit the criteria so if you want to see the weekly research that I do on the PJ tour give me a follow at your preferred social media site X is also where I place my weekly betting cards and top player usage in the DFS contest that I play I certainly fired off several Wagers this morning at uh on players that I really really liked their numbers so if you want to see my weekly betting cards and the top player usage for the DFS contest that I play give me a follow over at X lastly for social media gab’s handle is in the description he writes a very good article called The Fringe it’s a great way to start your week of preparation and he continues to update you throughout the week in his own way with his version of recent form and course history I would not suggest uh checking out gabes work if I didn’t fully believe it and the thought process that he puts behind it worked with him closely now for over a year uh and it’s been I feel like a great partnership uh when you get two analysts working together you’re going to dig into a lot of good data so I’ve enjoyed working with him and I suggest you uh follow him over on social media and subscribe to that article it is free to subscribe to his article by the way because if you are a subscriber to his article you’re going to be able to join us in his substack chat every Wednesday as we continue the DFS talk after calls calls in his substack chat we talk about Game Theory our favorite players at various areas of the price board uh any 6K plays or even 5K plays that we like for the week players that we are uh fading albe it’s uh scared too and all that so you don’t want to miss out on that conv conv Sation and the only way you’re going to be able to do that is if you subscribe to his article lastly we are Live Chat is open want to hear from you all we had a lot of interaction last night hoping to keep that momentum tonight uh did you fire off any Wagers today uh who is your early favorite for the Byron Nelson have you looked at the pricing uh what kind of lineups are you thinking about building early on this week for the Byron Nelson all of that so let’s dig into the weeds of the data for the 2024 CJ Cup by Aon Nelson and we start as promised with the forecast for mcken Texas and the kind of the extended look hopefully uh camera will get centered and focused there we go Thursday looks like it’s a potentially a wash quite honest with you uh lots of rain in the forecast for Thursday and a lot of wind which we would expect the wind considering it is Texas and the wind does play a pretty intrical part in the course’s defense at TPC Craig Ranch but the possibility of rain throws in quite a wrench into any plans so we’ll have to stay on top of this throughout the week and of course we’ll update this at the beginning of the show Wednesday evening to see if an a half of the draw develops if we want to favor one half of the draw or not um there’s a look at Thursday Friday looks like the wind calms down a little bit but potentially still some rain in the forecast and then Saturday the wind picks up again Sunday pretty calm by I would think mcken Texas’s standards uh but rain in the forecast every day throughout the tournament so again we’ll have to stay on top of this uh and figure out if there is a half of the draw that we need to focus on so with that we’re going to move to Fantasy National I am going to as you see set this for the last 36 rounds let’s add the moderate and windy condition or windy filter to the data and take a look at our top performers in the past two years in moderate and windy conditions those players are Jordan Adam Scott Harry Hall Wills aloris Ben on sunj Carson young Andrew Novak Adam shank and Mark Hub you see Patrick Rogers has a star next to his name there’s also another named Charlie Hoffman so two more field changes today Patrick Rogers and Charlie Hoffman have decided not to play the Byron Nelson this week uh and taking their place is Richie uh Richie rinsky who he he did come in for bazen hoot last night and then due to the reorder got bumped to an alternate now he’s back in Richie rinsky is in and sha O’Hare are the two alternates that have taken the place of Patrick Rogers and Charlie Hoffman uh some other sponsor exemptions have been handed out uh Marty do or Z Ching do um let’s see couple others names are eluding me at the moment um but those are your top performers in moderate and windy conditions the past couple of years um with the course being extremely softer potentially being extremely soft it will play pretty long as it is a long course already over 7,400 yards with it being soft or with the rain in the forecast it has the potential to be soft so our top performers on Long courses those measured over 7,400 yards our top performers on Long courses the past couple of years Sam Stevens sunjay Michael Kim Wesley briyan will zorus Eric Barnes Jordan spe Matt coer Adam shank and Hayden Springer so right off the top of my head I believe Adam shank was the only one that was top 10 in uh for windy condition editions as well and then the one thing that you need to know about TPC Craig Ranch it is it is extremely easy we talked about this quite a bit last night we’ll continue to do so throughout the week it is just extremely extremely easy and I do not foresee that changing uh especially if it is indeed soft and receptive so our top performance when rounds have been easy relative to par the past two years Alex noren Ben Griffin Peter Quest Taylor pendri Bo Hustler Chan Kim Adam shank Doug gim Luke list and Michael Kim So Adam shank’s been up here in the top 10 for all three of the filters easy long courses wind Michael Kim was up there for two of them I believe on Long courses and when it’s easy so uh give these players you know a slight boost uh in your considerations uh considering in a pig in a big picture view these players should play well or at least they have played well in similar style conditions um all right we’re going to hold off on any more in The Strokes gained page view and let’s just go ahead and jump straight into the the prior leaderboards we have a lot to cover in that regard we want to figure out which metrics uh and which uh shots well shot types and skills play best around TBC Craig Ranch so as we look at Jason day win last year we’ll highlight the top 18 just due to ties look at all of the off the te only one player negative in terms of off the te and in terms of in the top 18 for the CJ C or excuse me for the Byron Nelson last year you had a few players negative in approach but your your top 10 everybody in your top 10 was positive in approach as well so this is a ball striking course don’t uh don’t get uh mix it up and and get twisted as the kids say this is a ball striking course little bit of round the green of course if you’re making putts you’re going to be rising on the leer board if we sort Peter Quest top 15 last year all in the off the te made quite a few putts as well but lead and our off the te not necessarily the most elite correlation but certainly our our cut making top 15 a top 30 a top five another top 15 a top 10 our winner was a little bit further down here but still on the upper echelon of the of the leaderboard in terms of off the te if we look at approach like again a lot of cut making our winner was third in approach last year top 25 top 30 top 10 top 15 so lot of lot of ball striking lot of ball striking round the green okay I mean it’s our highest miscut we have a couple of miscuts up here um a lot of you know poor finishes that from players that did make the cut and of course putting a lot of lot of decent correlation here with the putting but I really wanted to highlight the fact that off the te a big factor approach a big factor as well if we look at two years ago the second of KH Le’s two wins we take a look highlight the top four now let’s go 16 top 16 here again a couple of players negative in off the te but really only one was poor in CZ only one player negative in approach if we sort again a lot of cut making we have jamesart Dupri missed the cut at the very bottom of our screen but you know a middling from cam champ a top 10 a top 20 top 25 top five top 20 runner up so a lot of correlation very good correlation here at the top for off the te approach a lot of the same now gusi very very high in terms of approach but missed the cut you see he just seemingly didn’t make a puttle week lost five on the greens but gained five and a half with his irons but look at the correlation around gusi two years ago third top 10 a middling for Mark Hub sure runner up top 20 top 15 third win a top five a little bit lower ball striking ball striking ball striking what we want to focus on this week so I’m gonna get this actually set ready for Fairways and greens looking at The Strokes gained there’s a few ways we can look at it but I’m going to tell you right now I really like the idea of looking at off the te when it’s easy this course is very very forgiving off the te these Fairways are wide there’s not a lot of trouble to get into the rough isn’t penalizing either so this is the way I am leaning right now in terms of what you would see on the mixed condition Model come Wednesday night I don’t think it’s wrong to look at off the tea on Long courses but I’m leaning towards the easy relative to par and stick around to the end of the show uh for the research and this will really explain why I’m I’m leaning towards the easy filter with off the tea
