2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson Picks, Research, Guess The Odds, Tournament History | DFS Golf Picks

Pat Mayo takes a deep dive into stats at Fantasy National making early 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson Picks with a first look and research for this week’s PGA TOUR event.

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SHOW INDEX

00:00 Intro
00:36 Quick Notes
3:08 Course Flyover/Notes
10:03 Course Stats
12:39 Event History
22:44 Field/Stat Model
33:51 Guess The Odds

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ENT a experience experience [Music] experience P Mayo experience experience welcome to the pat Mayo experience presented by Underdog fantasy we’re back at it with the research show for the CJ cup Byron Nelson AT&T was told to take a hike the CJ cup has been sponsoring random events from South Korea to South Carolina to Vegas over the past few years but now they are settled and Link themselves up with Byron Nelson this is the first full tournament that we haven’t seen without Scotty sheffler since btia won at Valero but it’s been a run I mean sheffer’s been taking not all of our money I mean some people have betting on Sheffer and winning doing well by doing the smartest thing possible the rest of us trying to get sneaky losing all our money in a lot of this stuff but Valero didn’t have him but before that it would have been I believe actually Valspar didn’t have him in it either when Mal went unfortunately no one had malat that week but it’s weird to see a tournament in Texas because Sheffer usually does play this but with an elevated signature event next week at qua Hollow and then the PGA Championship you know you need to get some rest in when you’re I mean I don’t know if they they’ve had the kid or not yet but it’s probably coming very soon if it was if it was quote close to happening at the Masters which it wasn’t at all then now would actually be the time when it would be close for that happening so we’ll see if he ends up playing next week too in and it seems like most of the biggest names have actually skipped McKinny Texas this week at TPC Craig Ranch aka the Bunny Ranch for this leg of everything like it’s it’s a nice way to get away for a lot of the players and even us playing betting DraftKings doing content like no one gives a about the Zurich this we found out I mean my metrics tell me the same thing every year although that’s when usually when I go on vacation so just to see like the numbers of the shows I mean I had very little interest that probably filtered through into the shows I do like talking about golf I like betting on golf it’s not like I wasn’t going to bet on it or play DraftKings for it but team event no one really cares no stats to look at shot tracker was an absolute mess because they’re testing whatever new shot tracker that they’re testing out now this was the test week for the President’s Cup which is coming up in September let me know by the way if you’re going to be in Montreal for the President’s Cup because we got a crew going uh if we have enough people who say they have interest maybe we’ll do like a meet and greet at a local bar or something like that one of the days after the golf has been done but it’s like me Jeff cust Kenny Tambo I think Byron’s going to come up now I think cam is going to come so we’re going to have like a legit crew a mail media presence in Montreal for the president cup but for this tournament for CJ cup the Byron Nelson not not a lot of Firepower in the field like spe probably I mean zalot Taurus is the best player who is playing I don’t know if he’ll be number one on the betting odds when we get to guess the odds we’ll figure that out but although spe has been playing like trash he’ll probably end up being the favorite skipped it last year he’s playing in it this year so that’s where we’re at let’s take a look TPC Craig Ranch is a par 71 7414 yards bent grass green zoa Fairways which means super spongy and they’re pretty wide so if you just want to go bombs away that tends to be a path when we take a look at Fantasy National here in a second you’re going to see it’s one of the only courses I’ve ever seen that has almost a flat distribution between driver approach and putting I’ve never seen anything like it come up on the on the bar graph that populates fantasy National it’s crazy 83 bunkers on the course 13 holes with water in play although this is one of the easiest courses on the PGA tour so just keep it out of the water and you will be fine we take a look at the par 3es the average distance is 204 yards three of the eight holes that actually play over par on this course are the power 3s all three of those measure over 215 yards the power 3es are where this course is actually going to show its teeth six of the top seven finishers of last year gain Strokes on the field on par 3s there’s 10 par fours the average distance oh no sorry there’s 11 par fours the average distance is 4 42 yards there are some pretty lengthy ones though the the top three holes in terms of bogey rate were all par fours 1 13 and 16 but the two short ones six and 14 carry a b birdier better rate of over 40% six is like almost drivable but not quite most people just kind of hit it up to the collar of the green and then chip on just tap in for birdie that’s not a it’s not a good hole speaking of number 16 the bogey rate on 16 the difficult hole was more than three times the birdie rate you have 17 other holes to try to make up ground just take your medicine on 16 and pray to God you can get out of there with a par because yeah the bogey rate is 24.8% number 16 uh and this is what is you know fondly known as the KH Le open this is only the fourth year that the PGA Tour is played at TPC Craig Ranch so we had Jason day win a year ago at minus 23 then you had cage Lee minus 26 cage Lee at minus 25 it’s a Tom wisoff design so the most notable other design that he has is TPC Scottdale and K Le has played really well in Phoenix over the years so Phoenix leaderboard is most definitely one to look at probably a bit further down from the top because you know good players play at TPC Scottsdale where they’re not so much playing here so you might have to like look like who finished inside the top 30 we’ll go back and look at that uh the further we go on into the show but it was just what I wanted to bring up if we take a look at the khle profile a little bit after winning it in consecutive Seasons how did he do it in those years uh it was ball striking you know 61% against the field three put avoidance 60% par four scoring 57 7% uh Fairways gained 56.9% and he was just able to fill everything up TD green like honestly you can we were going to build the model and we’re going to really dissect this course I don’t want to throw too many people off the scent here and try to get fancy brain with it all you want to look at ball striking and you do want to have a great TD green game if we just sort by TD green that’s probably going to be the best way to figure out at least who has been doing well enough coming in to give them a solid Baseline now obviously if we’re going to try to a winner there’s a hot putter that needs to be an element to that it’s going to be very difficult to lose Strokes on the green at a tournament where the winner could be minus 30 and actually have a chance to win even if you take a look at sheffer’s numbers from last year you finished inside the top 10 but it was during that streak where he could only break even at best with the flat stick and that just wasn’t good enough to win it’d be C it’d be C imagine if you put Sheffer in this field it’ be like minus 110 and again if he did just putt to field average he wouldn’t win because it’s it’s a tournament where you just got to make unless he hit everything to like two feet every single time which is within the range of outcomes for Scotty Sheffer at this point I’m just kind of jazz that he’s not in the field that we get to lose money and feel like we actually have a chance before Scotty hits a shot rather than what’s been going on lately it’s been three years like I mentioned for TPC Craig Ranch and there is a verdict this is an easy course it’s not the easiest but it’s almost the easiest course on tour just birdies and eagles everywhere and its debut in 2021 Craig Ranch gave up the most birdies of any course that year along with the fourth most Eagles it was also the course to the fourth highest scrambling rate as well even if you Miss Green’s power will be saved 66% of the time it all makes sense statistically players hit more Fairways here higher than average more greens and regulation Drive the ball further and three putt less it’s just a very conducive course to generating as many birdies as possible roic Creek runs throughout the course and will test the field either lay up or try to clear the hazards on about half the holes The Field’s probably going to clear them on most of them but since it didn’t provide too much difficulty from the Fairway quote layup should be probably stricken from the record here because guys are just going to go for it every single time with the way that the holes are laid out you can expect a larger than normal amount of approach shots from 175 and Beyond but specifically 200 and Beyond three of the per fivs measure between 545 and 570 yards so they’re all getable and three of the par 3es are at least 216 yards there are seven holes immediately or six holes immediately right there and throwing in the long Par Four along with it we’re going to encounter approach shots from that range in two years over in three years sorry over 50% of the approach shots have come from 175 and above I believe it’s around 40% uh when we take a look at Fantasy National we can deep dive that a little bit further beyond that uh there are the six power fours over 450 yards two other ones under 360 14 is driv Able by most of the field but it comes with a little bit of risk uh it’s a slight right to left Drive guarded by bunkers to the right with a massive water hazard to the left even if you put it in the water it’s a lot like 17 at Scottdale you can still get up and down for par it’s not that big of a deal so why not go for it expect a lot of the field to bail out right greenside bunkers forced to get it up and down for Birdie the field only makes Eagle 1.5% of the time on number 16 but the birdie rate is 43% on a power four number six is 361 yards but no Hazard area and some of the bigger hitters do go for it from the t- boox but it’s just a bit too long as I mentioned at 341 yards the to the front of the green bunkers on each side of the putting surface it’s slightly right to left just like number 14 you get a favorable bounce and sneak a drive in between the bunkers and have it roll up but it’s really not that big of a deal even if you end up in the bunkers they’re not overly challenging from that perspective so who are that are going to make a ton of birdies that’s what we want to find out this week I suppose that’s what we’re trying to look for every single week but when you’re going to breach minus 20 on the scorecard uh it’s a different type of vibe it’s like a corn fairy event in a weird way weirdly enough they used to play the corn fairy here uh 2019 Taylor Montgomery was the winner of this event Nick Hardy came in Fifth Place Chandler Phillips also finished inside the top 10 this year this is what I was talking about with the barrath for the course that amongst the top 10 finishers they let’s see here we got 77 off the te per round 76 on appr proach and then 79 putting and you know almost half a stroke per round around the greens like it is a full TD green test and if we do look at the top five it’s very similar approach does outweigh off the te just a little bit more then you take a look at the winners and like it’s KH Le and he’s like oh yeah I was gonna hit all my approaches close don’t worry about it so you really do want to lean on the ball striking aspect if you’re not hitting your approaches well you got like no chance here in even like the putting like wasn’t astronomically good it’s not like you needed a spike putting week you needed a good putting week so amongst the three winners that we’ve had here KH Lee twice and Jason day they’re averaging seven strokes per round so that’s what 1 Point almost three per tournament like that’s not outrageous there’s a lot of guys that can gain three Strokes putting in a single week uh you you know the part threes are going to be tough U that’s just kind of collectively known with three the eight most difficult holes on the course and then it’s flat uh otherwise even when we go back up we take a look at some of these Eagle rates 5.2 on number nine 3.1 on number five 1.9 on 14 which is that short Par Four and then only 1% of the time on number 18 so two of the power fives are entirely getable for Eagle to almost all of the field and then you have number 14 which is kind of the same way but look at some of these birdie rates there are five holes on this course with a birdie birdie or better rate of basically 40% or higher you’re not going to find that very often and when it comes to the challenging holes as I mentioned number 16 a 25% bogey rate uh 1.7% double rate or Worse number 12 20% bogey rate number four 17.7% bogey rate so there’s a couple of holes where you just kind of have to wash your hands of it say hey I can take power make the sensible shot then just be as aggressive as possible with almost everything else let’s take a look back at some of the other years once again fantasy national.com get you 20% off and as you can see right here on the screen you can get access to get yourself into the live beta uh it was no good this week as none of the shot trackers were pretty good but if you are a member you can get your tips on Apple on on iOS or on Android uh and just have it populate everyone who’s used it so far has said it’s the best and I concur I see it’s the only leaderboard app that I use at this point you want to see guys on your screen in real time seeing what they do this is the app for you you don’t have to click into individual names to find anything out nothing of that nature you can just have it populated on your screen at all times so Jason day wins a year ago uh day had been playing well all year and it finally culminated in this if SEI wo let me guess sewo couldn’t hit approaches last year couldn’t putt last year something stupid with sewo he came in second he probably chipped in like 80 times I feel like I remember him chipping in a whole bunch of times Byron n that’s Byron Nelson yeah that’s exactly what he did he just really couldn’t drive all that well which is strange for him with the amount of Fairways that he hits I guess because the fairways are so wide and he does lack distance that he was penalized versus the field for that but you gain almost five Strokes around the green you really can’t complain about it too much but he came in second CT pan was fourth having a good week at Zurich right now with his partner Marty do Vince Norman big time driver Ryan Palmer Adam scottt yab bombs Kevin TW TW is interesting so I I didn’t expect to see his name up here I saw him and smelly Kelly Kelly craft rising up the leaderboard of the zerk I was like oh my God I bet these guys every year and totally forgot they were in this stupid tournament uh but it’s interesting to see him pop there because I believe he was in the final group at corales a few weeks ago yeah he ended up coming third at corales at Puerto Rico he was all right he hasn’t been playing much obviously but he a former PGA Tour winner not to say that he’ll ever do that again but it’s interesting to see that this is a course that has actually treated him well in the past uh don’t look at 2019 or 2018 that’s the old Byron Nelson course when they played at that like dumpster outside of Dallas the hell was the name Trinity forest with the zoa greens and zoa Fairways everywhere they’re bent grass greens at this course this time around benan uh T14 if he can make enough putts it’s like a perfect course for him gim Reaper was 19 last year it says T12 in 2019 he actually had a which is again at Trinity Forest but he had a top 10 here or at least a top 15 when they played on the kftt believe in 2018 for him it could have been 2017 Patton kazy uh used to just always play well in Texas you can use the Texas filter on fantasy National to check that out as well hogi I mean I don’t know if dude’s broken but he broke himself on the last hole at Heritage on the Monday restart then him and MTH ended up missing the cut as a team at the Zurich khle obviously play pretty well so we take a look this will give us a 5year run of it but spe T9 T2 in both of his appearances has done very well Ryan Palmer Texas guy has been top 10 each of the past two years uh CT pan as I mentioned came in fourth I think this was his first or second start back from a wrist injury after taking a significant amount of time off so maybe keep him on the back of your minds as well piery Kang Sun Kang good for him wouldn’t take Sun Kang this week Al noren has top 25 finishes in both of his appearances so feel free to go waste money on Alex noren again I might even join you in wasting money on Alex noren because I bet she’s going to rate out pretty pretty well this week who else has done well here Nate Lashley top 25s each of the past two years gim was top 20 Tom Kim t17 t34 James Han theya T9 here at one point as well so nothing crazy in terms of what we see just from the colle Ive leader board we take a look at The Strokes gain from last year you see it was just ball striking from Jason day 3.6 off the T 6.4 on approach that was good enough he led all players T to Green Sheffer was second and gained 0.1 Strokes putting that’s how you come in fifth and not first he just gains like two strokes on the green he probably ends up winning this tournament banan an Ryan Palmer sewo Kim Sam Stevens plays well at course is over 7,400 yards TD green so not surprising to see him up there last year I mean cage Lee just bled Strokes around the green his ball striking was amazing again so that’s three years in a row with the Byron Nelson for khle how’s kle even playing at this point not well played well at Honda and valpar and I said that I was going to look at Phoenix as well so we’ll dig into that here in a second but he’s had some good off the tea performances the approach play has been very spotty but if we take a look at Baron Nelson I mean it’s been basically the same story ever since they moved to Craig Ranch except for last year when he lost seven Strokes putting and lost a stroke and a half around the greens that was really the only difference I mean that’s a huge difference that’s the difference between t50 and first place but if the ball striking is going to continue to be that good let’s check out his lead in form what was it last year coming in so we have where’s t50 on the docket 2023 why can’t I find it there we go so he been playing like all right coming in better than he’s been playing this year but not great by any Marg he was making Cuts but it’s not like he was absolutely lighting it up on his best finish coming in was a T8 at Wells Fargo they flop those this year but other than that like that’s kind of it he was pretty decent at the Masters but uh the year before that coming in like a whole lot of a lot like it is this year actually just terrible across the board then he got it kind of going at qua Hollow them boom spikes a victory at Craig Ranch in the year before that was playing a little bit better but again not great form coming in any time at Byron Nelson but the ball striking continues to be there I want to know what his number is going to be at open if we get I don’t know I mean there’s a chance that it could be 100 to1 plus that probably won’t be the case based on the just poor strength of field that we have in McKenna and the fact that he’s a two-time winner in the three years that it’s been here that they probably will give him like benefit of the doubt in the market that he’ll probably end up opening at like 60 rather than 125 and getting bet down to 80 but if it is above 60 if it’s 80 or above probably bet it and just be like something about this course khle loves it why not go for it check out the leaderboard from Phoenix see if we see some names that are in this tournament I don’t know if Chuck Hoffman’s playing or not is Chuck Hoffman playing Hoff Mania oh yeah Hoff Mania running wild in the field this week too so maybe take a look at him I have no idea how he has played at this course over the years probably not very good considering he can barely get into events at this point but we can take a look at Byron Nelson and missed the cut each of the last two years the driving was very poor the chipping was even worse the putting was bad at both years he’s played at this course he’s gained on approach but that has been it he has been cut twice but he does seem to be a little bit better marginally this time around but the one place where he did play well was obviously in Phoenix MAV McNeely Adam Scott is actually a player who finished inside the top 10 here last year in the field this week as well Novak oh Novak Nation another reason to bet on Novak gim played pretty well we know that cage Lee has played well he had a runnerup finish in Phoenix at one point of his career Davis Thompson there’s ciwo Kim again Adam shank Keith Mitchell and Tom hogi who if you sort by approach I assume they justes come out to be number one Justin s Jake knp feel like nap rally nap made the cut at the Masters I think how do he do with Heritage very poorly terrible terrible driving at the Heritage interesting couldn’t chip to save his life either but this actually seems like it might be a pretty good course for him only because we like it’s probably not going to be like he did in Mexico where the ball striking was off the charts but something like he did in I don’t know at the farmers he didn’t drive the ball very well in Phoenix but when he drives the ball well he drives it really well I guess when he drives it poorly he drives it incredibly poorly for the irons have not spiked like they have earlier on in the year but they still been pretty good that maybe it’s a CH time to go back in on Jake Gap maybe not as an outright but potentially as a DraftKings play depending on the price when he comes in let’s take a look at 2022 Scotty Klay Brooks yeah these guys aren’t playing there’s norin noren pops up with a top 10 kazy we said kazy came in 30 had po to top 10 there two years ago Keith Mitchell man is this this would actually track really well for Keith Mitchell to get his win him or Tom hogi to be perfectly honest with you because uh we saw it with Jason Day last year that this was sort of the culmination of the great year that Jason day had put together he finally comes through and gets his win at this event and then we saw it a little bit later on in the year with Ricky Fowler where he was having a really good year and then boom he finally spikes the win in Detroit I don’t know if Keith Mitchell is having the best year of guys who haven’t won but the results have been very consistent but more importantly the ball striking has been wildly consistent the putter is up and down it’s terrible to merly good emly good could be enough this week if you come with the right amount of ball striking prowess he has been 26th and 76 the two years they’ve been here when you’re the approach going really bad but as you can just see on the screen his T green his ball striking his driving has been awesome so far this year so he has to be in consideration as much as you might not love having to do it it’s dicey put it that way with Keith Mitchells just you know he’s probably going to chip or putt you out of a tournament just how you know Tom hogi is going to chip you out of a tournament at some point and rub it in your face and you feel like a but that’s just the way that it goes when you’re dealing with these guys guys with super high odds yeah no one else really sticks out to me uh who’s in the field this week so it’s like norin Mitchell nor and Mitchell are really the two that kind of pop up more than you think Jake knp I guess would be the other one so let’s jump over and try to figure out what we want to do with the modeling good news I’ve already done it so I actually modified my one from last year before we started me putting in all the hard work uh Strokes gain to no that is the mix condition model I believe let’s see what do I have I have strokes scanned in I want to go to TPC Craig Ranch and let’s really shorten it here let’s go past we’ll go 12 rounds might even shorten it to eight rounds just to see who comes in with the best sort of TD green game so I have t green 6% I’m going to up that to 11 take away on off the T and approach since they’re being double counted as a part of TD green 16 to 19% power 4 is 4 450 to 500 yards 11% uh Power 4 is 0 to 350 yard 5% putting 5 to 10t 10 to 15 ft par 3es 200 225 yards Eagles five opportunities gained nine and proximity from 200 yards is 5% we’ll update that and let it tell us why Keith Mitchell is the best player no it’s actually Kevin Yu mean KH Lee Kevin U let’s go has Kevin youu ever played at this place before decent run at Zurich as well how’s he been doing poorly not great Bob but again we just saw oh he’s never played in the Byron Nelson so it’s first timer seeing the cor so Kevin hu pops out as number one in the very short-term modeling so it’s Kevin hu Mark hubba hubber sewu Ryan Moore MAV top five smelly Kelly craft Nate Lashley who does have the two top 25s the past two years here lonto Keith Mitchell Novak that’s the top 10 then you got Ben Martin shank shank was one of the names that came up in the crossover dri forchan Damon P custy Pete Peter Quest Vegas hogi norin Baden Hout and norlander who he and list were actually making a pretty good team here I wonder if Rico H can actually make some noise this time around he missed no he came 33rd in caral I just assumed he missed the cut 14th like the ball striking has been I me the ball striking was better the driving is great if we can just get him to up his approach game a little bit again I mean him not cashing the top 10 at Valero was painful uh just he had a very very poor round four he’s more of a showdown guy than anything but he’s just always one of those names to keep on in the back of your mind uh as bombs depending on what the price is like if he’s 100 to one that’s a bad bet if he’s 350 to1 well then it’s just Monopoly money at that point you’re just betting 10 bucks on to do whatever hopefully he ends up with a placement if we shrink this down to past eight rounds Kevin U remains at the top but four Chan Kim ends up popping up to number two Mitchell craf lonto I bet lonto at corales and he was one over after the first round and they just basically stunted everything he can do he did rally for a t36 at corales you can see the ball striking not so bad right Sheamus power is another one who we saw him get it going early at Heritage and he’s actually had some success at this course no like high-end success but you can see the approach play has been really good his driving is terrible but he chips he putts if he can figure it out enough like he did at the valpar Maybe another guy who’s a former winner on the PGA tour he’s played this event three times at this course and finished inside the top 20 every single time one year it was just all chipping and putting so the chipping is great here we’ve seen the ball striking be good enough and that was last year he gained almost two strokes off the te so if we kind of rewind back into time and see Byron Nelson coming in I mean he basically he gained off the tea at Wells Fargo and before that he hadn’t gained since Phoenix but he did gain in Phoenix he still l’sen he been off the injury for a while now but it if he can actually figure out how to drive the ball like he was doing a little bit towards the beginning of the Season before he went into this rut off the tea know he’s going to be a very interesting name from what I would assume is back of the pack but in a field this week you probably can’t assume much can you spe is still up there Ben Martin so Ben Martin retains that over time let’s see Tia green coming in uh CU I did want to look at that Alex norin his first sewo Chan k maybe it’s just a week to bet all Asian dudes that could be the we can bet Kevin Yu seu Chan Kim CT pan and We’re Off to the Races try to find a winner of all those guys Jagger CT pan Ryan Moore Keith Mitchell Lashley Kelly craft Mark hubard lonto again feels like a week where I know if you do have a favorite at the top it’s just all the favorites in this field just aren’t playing Great Golf coming in I guess zal is I don’t even really remember what happened to him this week he’s 44th the heritage ninth of the Masters like if it’s a long hard course then I like him I don’t know how I really feel about zorus and birdie Fest he’s just not shown a proclivity to do all that well uh in them the lower the winning score the higher the winning score the better it does seem like will zot torus finishes on the score on the leaderboard so you take Z out and he’s probably like the best player in this field and speed has just been off the rail so don’t really want to bet spe when he comes in like 12 to one or something like that and they’re probably the two highest on the odds boards like who do you feel good about like sewo is probably the guy that you feel the best about this week which is crazy to think about coming in and like I’m not going to put much stock into the Zurich like if someone has a it’s one of those things where if someone has a bad week you can write it off to well they had a bad week it’s a stupid Zurich and when we think about Kevin youu if he comes inside the top five it’s like oh yeah Kevin you finish finish top five riding in on the hotwave so I I’m personally going to try not to put too much effort into what is happen happening at the Zurich Andrew Novak still let’s see 17th T green over that time Kevin y lonto as I mentioned Ben Martin Aaron Ry having a good Zer Aaron Ry the smother man KH Le 23rd T green over the past eight rounds coming in so he’s not in the most awful Ted green form uh that we can think of M Hughes is up here sunj is in this field and he’s just been terrible although he did turn around his fortunes a little bit a mini bit at the RBC Heritage he came and third but a lot of that was chipping like the approach play is bad the approach play has been bad when you have a sea of red it’s tough to part it when your name is not Moses and your name is sunj so I don’t know if that’s going to get it’s gonna if this course is going to get him off the schneide uh and do you really want to find that out when you know that aads are going to come in being 20 to one because he’s an actual name in this field so it’s tough to really parse out what we want to do this week because of the strength of field so let’s take a look at a longer sample of size here let’s go 75 rounds to see if there’s anything Baseline that we want to look at in terms of hey who has the skills that we want here that maybe is not playing great at the moment so Z actually rates out the best past 75 so does Burger but again P 75 is still taking numbers from 2022 before his injury so let’s throw him out for a second we can Jeff and I will talk about Burger on Monday I’m sure we got zal SEIU Ry Mitchell hogi gim just all the losers we’ve been losing money on me one of these guys got a win this week we spin the wheel losers pick them all Ben an Kevin hu Jagger Jagger already got his win Vegas bazen Hout Adam Scott Luke list Luke list could putt feel like it could be a decent week for him same as colie but colie like legit cannot putt so that’s a problem Tom Kim Baseline is 20th hubard Ryan Moore so it’s a lot of the same names you got Novak and shank just outside the top 20 Shez reevy is there sunjay man sunjay even over the past 75 is only 28th in these rankings that is not good norin is actually a lot lower longterm than he is shortterm just to kind of show how much better he has been recently TD green over that time seiw Burger Z gim Jagger Ry an collie spe Kevin U Grayson Sig talk about a guy who can’t putt Grayson Sig is the man of that I I bet him like two weeks in a row I was like what am I doing here like dude legit can’t putt so it’s it’s a real problem when you’re not an elite ball Striker you know if you’re an elite ball Striker you can get away with it when you’re Grayson Sig nah not a chance terrible proximity from 152 as well but the ones I want to look at longer term mainly were Eagles par 3s opportunities gain and the short par fours CU you don’t encounter too many of them so guys that are great on short par fours on the PGA tour over the past 75 rounds you got Ry SEIU Tom Kim Zack Blair Scott piery sh Kim Daniel Berger Ben Griffin coocher who does have a top 10 at this course day hubard collie Baden hosler noren Pearson ctie let us down this week those long par threes Carson young Keith Mitchell Davis Thompson see Kim Justin low Bud colie James H Tom Kim a few Tom Kim and Jason day shout outs when you take a look at the longer form but you don’t see their names anywhere when you take a look at the short and then the best players over 200 yard proximity in the field over the past 75 list man hogi thorbjorn Tommy two gloves Tommy gainy all right Smotherman Tom Kim so the long-term numbers love Tom Kim is what we’re finding out short-term numbers do not love Tom Kim so much he was let’s see he was 18th at the Heritage couldn’t drive to save a lick which is weird for a guy that usually just his driving has went in the tank and he usually just kind of hits every single Fairway but if the approach is on the rebound maybe a look maybe I say it’s just like MMO minmo is in this field you don’t see him anywhere he’s having a bad year but bombs away course that’s good maybe because of the shorter approaches he can get it going a little bit better I mean he was he gained six Strokes on Approach at the classic and that’s the turnament where K Le has also done very well uh in his career uh he played this last year I believe yeah he did but he also played it in 2016 on the kft and came inside the top 20 but he was bad on approach here last year missing the cut he’s just bad on approach most weeks until he’s great on approach but the thing that was always bailing him out is his putting was off the charts good especially last season he just has not been able to translate that through so you know that he’s going to gain off the team if he makes the cut one of those four rounds is going to be a 63 it’s just what he does in those other rounds ends up becoming the problem so that’s really all I wanted to look at this week for the byr NS we ease our back s back here we got some big boy events coming up over the next eight weeks or so two major championships to Signature Events Canadian open it’s all jam-packed in here so we just want to test out the waters a little bit getting acclimated back to the research show it’s the first one I’ve done since the Masters I was away for the Heritage no chance I was going to do one for the Zurich so don’t want to take up too much of your time with this but to give you a lay of the land of where we’re at in one of these weaker field tournaments which generally speaking I think can be pretty good okay it’s time to guess the odds for the CJ cup Byron Nelson at TPC Craig Ranch and mcken Texas I’m stalling here because I got no clue of what’s going to happen I think that spe is going to be the favorite I’ll say that spe is if you put spe at 12 to1 would anyone actually bet spe at 12 to1 probably not so they he’ll probably fall if he opens at 12 to1 I think he’s going to open at 12 to1 then you have zot Taurus I’ll say is 14 then sewo Kim at 22 to one Tom Kim 25 Jason day 25 minwoo 28 Adam Scott 28 benan 28 Alex noren 33 that’s what we’re looking at for this tournament this is the tournament that we are playing this week it’s funny because the week they used to hold this the week before the PGA Championship so you would go qua Hollow this course PGA Championship so it actually did attract a lot of higher and players because a lot of people like to play the week before a major championship and that’s just not the case right now dudes finished up at the at the Heritage for a guaranteed payday a nice payday then they went on vacation for two weeks so they didn’t want to have a hit and giggle at the Zerg that’s what we’re doing for guess the odds this time around uh hopefully I’m wrong and these guys are more down the board to give you a chance to actually bet them but if SE was 25 I’d hit that instantly I just don’t think we’re going to we’re going to get enough generosity from the sports books this week in order to do that so that will do it on the pat Mayo experience once again Underdog fantasy so here’s the thing you support the show by signing up for Underdog fantasy that really does mean a lot to us use code Mayo deposit 100 bucks boom you get a free 100 bucks match directly into your account we’ve been cleaning up on UFL I’ve been tweeting that out in correlation with runthe sims.com and using their numbers so that’s been very profitable and golf has been super profitable basically from the Masters there was nothing for Zurich but Masters and Heritage pretty good I’ve been putting out plays in the newsletter for Thursday as well so sub to the fre newsletter to get those plays and I’ll probably tweet them out at the same time smash the like while you’re here sub to the show share with some friends if they’re into golf or betting on golf as well we can always use the word of mouth goes a long way into helping us just like signing up for Underdog fantasy right absolutely I’m Pat Mayo I’ll see you next time P Mayo experience experience