Can Jordan Speith FINALLY Get A Win at the Byron Nelson? | PGA Tour Picks & Bets | Links & Locks

Action Network contributors and golf betting experts Robert Arguello, Nick Bretswich and Spencer Aguiar discuss their favorite golf bets for this year’s Zurich Classic on the Links and Locks podcast presented by bet365. Click here for more golf picks: bit.ly/GolfAction

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00:00 – Intro
00:40 – Best Bets
08:15 – Course Preview
14:00 – Outright Bets
30:55 – The Rest of the Best Bets

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#AuthorSpencerAguiar #AuthorRobertoArguello #BlueWireVideo #AuthorNickBretwisch

hello you beautiful degenerates and welcome to links and locks the action Network’s golf betting podcast presented by bet 365 I’m your host Roberto aru and I’m excited to be joined by Nick brwi and Spencer agar this week as we preview the CJ cup Byron Nelson this week on the PGA tour from from TPC Craig granch in Mckenna Texas in the Greater Dallas area Spencer had a big show last week we faded Billy horel and Tyson Alexander that was your best bet that hit horel and Alexander failed to make the cut hadwin and Taylor did easy money on Friday afternoon but that wasn’t it you weren’t done making money you hit Rory mroy and Shane Lowry outright plus 850 to win the tournament so congrats on cashing that at the Zurich Classic of New Orleans what is your best bet for this week’s the CJ cup Byron Nelson so this head-to-head price has been on the Move that’s a very common answer when talking about some of these matchups on the show weekly I took Garrick higo plus 122 over Rio hisatsune feel like I almost would be better sneezing while trying to say his last name there I think that’s the correct pronunciation of it but uh the best you can find in this space is plus 107 right now I would have this good up to minus 125 I think this is a very interesting cap and it’s been pushed in both directions because when I initially hit this this and we’ll talk about this more in a second when I pushed it down from plus 122 it got to minus 110 both ways you have sites out there like data golf that were able to push that back up in the other direction because I know that they liked the Rio side of that wager but to me this was a pretty significant edge of about 40 points of value and anytime I can get a plus number on something that I have better than 50/50 I’m always going to punch those tickets so I I like g go this week so similar kind of bet as last week where it was minus 110 for Taylor and uh his partner hadwin and they ended up being plus 120 later on so love to see the line movement coming in our Direction Nick what is your best bet for this week’s CJ cup byr Nelson it’s going to be a little gross going back to the placement Market per usual I’m going with Matty Schmid top 20 where ties pay in full at plus 350 all right Schmid top 20 plus 350 with ties paid in full we’ll get into that cap in a moment but first Spencer or before we get into y’all’s picks uh disclaimer I’m not giving any pcks this week I will be on PGA Tour live hosting in relief on the feature group and Marquee group streams so be sure to check in uh on PJ Tour live on ESPN plus I’ll be with da point so I’m excited to break down the golf with him this week so no picks for me uh but we’ll get back to Spencer why are you betting on higgo against hitsun I liked Rio a lot coming into the season we I’ve come on this show and had really bullish discussions about what I think his career Outlook is this is a 21-year-old player where I ran numbers before the year and one of the things I like to do is see where I am more aggressive on certain players than the general public seems to be or their official world golf rankings Rio has a Sit different situation I think because I mean he was a top 100 player coming into the year just with some of the stuff that he had done on his tour but essentially it was him Stephen joerger Peter Quest now we’re going to be able to have a Peter Quest conversation here this has been a very difficult Journey for him that he hasn’t necessarily gotten the starts that you would think it’s been this difficulty that he’s encountered we’ll talk about that when we get to the outright Market but regardless of how optimistic I was with h satun I do have some concerns that we might have I want to say more name recognition necessarily but maybe more Outlook of long-term pedigree that’s coming into play here because I I don’t necessarily think this is the best course fit for him at TPC Craig Ranch he ranked 117th from an overall rank perspective inside of my model because of that combination of shaky form and questionable data he has only been better than 75th Place during one of his past four starts and then it’s that statistical profile that continues to Compound on itself that just over and over again with all of the categories that I ran pushed them way down that board for me and outside the top 100 so 139th for expected punting on similar green complexes that’s going to be these bent grass average to fast surfaces 137th for projected Strokes gain total at TPC Craig Ranch it was 124th when taking on TPC properties of any kind we always talk on this show and we can discuss it more when we get into the course breakdown all TPC properties are very similar in nature so I think that is not where you want to be at $129 there or 124th there sorry and then he’s 129th when you take the total driving when you take these wide openen Fairways that have no rough I think when you look at the overall profile you know a golfer like Jason day was able to use the total driving that he had while he didn’t have the weighted proximity and I wanted to make sure that I didn’t necessarily get that with the profile here but when when you get 117th Place grade for weighted proximity 140th when looking into proximity from outside 200 yards I think this is a shaky profile I was surprised to see a plus number in this situation and it adds to the fact here where I always say I I’m trying to fight fade candidates over anything else and this is what we exactly get in this spot but my model really liked higo and that’s not a a prototypical answer that you hear me say like uh it’s a selfless plug of my moer of UNLV but like these UNLV golfers when you throw them into Texas all see an upside you could go across the board here with Adam Scott and higo and Hoffman and Moore and Montgomery like there’s a lot of players in this tournament that are intriguing so I thought a plus number here for something that I had better win Equity than a 50-50 bet was a good price here at any plus number you’re getting I like it I think that makes a ton of sense and higo super long off the te and has gotten a little bit more consistent as well and of course we got to plug higo uh because he’s one of our lab golf Brethren with the putter uh Nick why are you bullish on Matty Schmid this week uh pretty usual it’s going to be a number grab for me so I had this proper right around plus 310 especially with the ties paidon F if anything I’d have that closer to just three to one flat uh Schmid’s kind of been a guy I’ve been watching a little bit I know Spencer and I talked about him on the DFS side of things a little bit for The Players Championship was very sneaky there another TPC course that really doesn’t fit his game for the most part he’s more of a you know bomit down the Fairway type of guy he’s hitting a lot of Fairways this year it’s the most he’s hit in three seasons so I love to see that especially when it’s a course that’s not going to be very penal when you do miss the Fairway so just playing The Distance game here playing the hot putter which most of those putting stats were on BR me to grass so we’ll see how the switch is over to Ben grass but again I’m just more betting on the upside here it’s the best iron play we’ve seen consistently out of Schmid since probably I guess his debut in 2021 and that was very limited so um other than that yeah just five top 30 finishes in his past six events he hasn’t missed a cut since the cognizant classic and again another course that probably wouldn’t fit his type of game I think with the wide openen atmosphere of TBC Craig Ranch and his ability to ball strike and play in the wind I think this is a really good spot for him so I will take the 40 points of expected value on my numbers there and take Schmid inside the top 20 I like it so we got Schmid in the top 20 Market we got higgo over H Satan so those are our Best Bets this week for the CJ cup byon Nelson fellas we’ll get into our course preview outright bets after that we’ll go through the rest of the card we’ll talk one and done because we didn’t have one and done last week and then we’ll go through our rapid fire as well Spencer why don’t you take a crack at the course preview for TPC Craig Ranch you mentioned that it has some similar characteristics to some other TPC courses yeah I think TPC Craig Ranch is a very straightforward ask of all players teeing it up this week lot of that comes down to the TPC nature that you just alluded to again we only have three iterations of the contest to pull from numerically when trying to run data inside a model I think normally when you get that return a threeyear sample size for any course would typically lead to more questions than we would ideally want since a lack of long-term quantifiable metrics will only convolute the process but it’s essentially what we’re talking about here of where there’s volatility because you have a winning score of 24 underpar but then you also have the concrete data points on the flip side of that because you have these constant answers that you can pinpoint for the best way to play the venue I thought the most effective strategy I could find to leverage the course specific characteristics were bent grass putting that’s something that we’re seeing for only you know the second or third time this year uh TPC properties that goes into everything that we’ve talked about the easy scoring conditions that’s going to be a players that can make birdies and bunches this is not going to be one of your tests that single digit underpar is going to win so I want birdie makers venues over 7,400 yards I added in a little bit of win play I kind of did that in a backend part of the equation I looked at mostly Texas courses there um you’re always going to get wind in that area so I kind of added that to win play but I think when you take all of that and then you merge it together with this highly correlated trend of you need distance at all levels for the week that’s going to make separating models a little bit more challenging because I do think you get the same answer over and over again but the field averages 12 Yards More off the te with the driver in hand because of this wide open setup of the track and then it also delivers over a 35% distribution of approach shots from outside 200 yards that’s a stat that landed nearly 133% above PGA Tour average uh some of those answers at a secondary problem because we can talk about that this when we get to the odds board and it’s funny because Nick and I were speaking of this before the show and I see a lot of hold percentage in the market and Nick and I both ended up with a little bit more exposure than than I think either one of us thought we were going to take on for the week but uh essentially out there I mean like to condense that answer it if you could only look at three things it’d be proximity over 200 yards bent grassp punting expectations weighted total driving I think everything else that I talked about from that course specific answer of the TPC properties and every other category there that would be more of that filler information that I’m trying to add to my build yeah we were talking off air about how there just haven’t been that many bent grass courses on tour so far this season the only one uh that really popped up was Augusta National so different challenge this week with us mostly being in the South so seeing a lot of Bermuda grass that’s dormant with poet trivialis over it has been the most common putting surface but now moving to Bentgrass as it’s becoming That season on the PGA tour without further Ado well Nick I’ll give you a chance if you’d like to add anything on the course preview to hop in if not who you got on your outright card yeah I mean I think everything Spencer said again he’s the best in the industry at breaking down a course in my opinion and doing it in a very efficient manner so thank you for that Spencer but overall like to me everything that he said kind of checks the box of what I was looking for is just like well-rounded golfers and and everybody’s it’s going to be tough to if you’re just strictly using statistics and proximities to to build your model it is going to be tough because everybody’s distance off the te is going to be a lot you know like VAR like I’m interested in mark hubard this week handicapping Mark hubard is a lot lot different than handicapping Matias smid so um having those like different expected proximities um from each player based on what they do off the tea is kind of like more of a a manual process in my opinion unless you have some crazy AI stuff like Spencer’s probably using back there that he doesn’t tell us about but uh that just overall the uh the well-roundedness of a golfer when you do miss a green just like most TPC properties like most P ey courses as well I kind of handicapped it very similarly you’re going to need to get up and down so I do put a little more emphasis on scram this week as I would on other courses but other than that no the bankr putting is going to be very important and I I think with a very limited data sample size for a lot of these golfers especially the Young Guns coming up with uh you know a lot of the elevated players not playing this week it’s going to be very interesting you know Nick I will say I I’ve made some AI pictures you’ve seen it for what we did for better golf pot it does l it that was great there’s distorted faces in it AI needs to improve itself there but uh AI is going to be something to be reckoned with like it’s it’s wild like this is not a this is not a show of rap music or any of that but like I don’t know if you guys saw Drake released a song where it’s a diss track to Kendrick Lamar and like they had it dubbed in voices of them not actually obviously Tupac is not alive anymore but Tupac and Snoop Dog so a AI is doing wild things out there wait real quick Drake doesn’t like Kendrick Omar they’re in a beef right now dude I I don’t I don’t know where you find out this information probably just like the internet or whatever but Kendrick lar I’m not a big rap guy but Kendrick Lamar’s voice is very unique and I appreciate it so I’m on Kendrick’s side on this one Kendrick you’re probably listening getting your picks in for the show I got your back dude if you’re uh you know and he’s American Drake’s can Canadian so whatever R the Canadians the Canadians have legal online Sports gamling so shout out Canada uh they cashed our best bet last week with Nick Taylor and Adam hadwin and we know Drake’s a better so so fellas without any further Ado let’s get into the outright card and see if we can get Drake to tail some of our plays this week stay hot Spencer I’ll give you the te first who you got on your outright card here in the Dallas area this week kind of like I said at the beginning this is double triple the exposure I expected to take on it’s another high hold percentage market and um it’s going to be interesting I have not run numbers since will zalatoris has pulled out of the event so you’re going to see some shift that’s going to occur and often times it ends up being a little bit too steep on it yet was yeah was there any reason for will I know like he he withdrew like right as we were pressing record so I I do not have any news as to why here’s what I’m hoping for at least from the zotus part of the answer I don’t know what it is at this moment I didn’t necessarily think this was the best course fit for him I’ve heard whether this is true or not that the course is kind of rough right now if hopefully he’s okay with everything with the back but but if it’s a property that he doesn’t feel comfortable with and he has any concerns like it’s probably better to pull out of it like to me when I looked at the top of the board and I I didn’t necessarily find the value that I wanted in a lot of these spots I didn’t quite get there and I guess it wouldn’t have mattered because I would have been refunded anyway but I I like the idea of betting spe thir day in a matchup against Zur he was gonna be one of my big fade candidates so it might hurt a little bit from an inter tournament betting perspective because I’m not going to get that opportunity to take them on now but I I hope it’s not healthwise maybe Roberto knows a little bit more yeah uh it’s not good news he said that so obviously zor had the surgically repaired back he came back a little earlier than expected he said that there was a flare up this week he’s ahead of schedule according to his doctors but unfortunately this period first six months back after the injury is very key and needs to put his long-term Health ahead of the short-term um chances of winning so even though why the hell did he play the Zurich then I don’t get it if I don’t know yeah I’m not a doctor he he grew up in Dallas moved to Dallas when he was 9 years old um and then started kicking people like my ass in junior golf so I know he wanted to be back and play this event uh obviously Jordan spe some of the other guys skot sheffler would be here if he wasn’t expecting a kid but unfortunately outour is out this week hopefully the back is all right for the Wells Fargo next week and of course the PJ championship but back to you guys and the outright cards yeah so I I started with step jger at 33 to1 you can actually find a 35 to1 out there right now with our sponsors bet 365 and I do want to give a shout out to bet 365 like I you could take this for what it’s worth obviously they’re the sponsors of the show but they do the best job in the outright Market of anybody out there that is that is that is a true comment to this that has Beyond any sponsorship or anything with that like their numbers are always better than the rest of the space so shout out to them to always look inside the enhanced Market you’ll get a couple points better mostly than every other place yeah lowest hold percentage I believe in the legal Market too yeah they’re a great book if you have access to them I I would say that they are the premier shop that you can find in the legal space right now so they’re doing great things over there when it comes to joerger here another player or another person who’s doing great things on his own like I I’m aware that it’s hard to win twice in four events I think that sentiment would be fine to at least look more into if this number of his had plummeted after winning like if we got a negative EV commodity that all of a sudden pushed him down to this 18 to1 range like we’re getting a lot of these players at the top sure I could make the argument that now we don’t have value on Stephen jger anymore from where we’re at but he landed in a Zone here that’s outside 30 to1 I got him at 50 at Houston but I’ve always said in any of these spots when he’s 30 to1 or higher I think he’s a really intriguing commodity to consider because of the ball striking Acumen that he brings to the table so he’s first in my model for Pure upside when you remove his floor outcome from the equation that’s something that does matter here but if we’re just shooting for win equity and Roberto you mentioned this before the show and I really like it like there’s an argument to be made I I’m not necessarily saying it’s right or wrong with it but there’s an argument to be made that I do think at his very best joerger is the best golfer in this field and that’s not necessarily the sentiment that would be shared by many and that’s why I’m always higher on in the market or than the rest of the market would be so I took him at 30 5 to one just a bunch of top 10 finishes throughout my model and if you really want to get technical with this I know this means nothing in the grand scheme of things but there’s one player who’s beaten Scotty sheffler since March here’s your man right here it’s the only guy who’s gotten across the Finish Line over him so took him at 33 to one you can find 35 to one I don’t know if I love these two Wagers after adding some extra stuff into the back end of the equation I did take Keith Mitchell at 40 to1 and Tom hogi at 33 to1 um I’m going to include them to together here just because I do have concerns about the lack of upside after punching the tickets I would love to get your guys’ thoughts on it to maybe Compound on that issue a little bit more maybe you have a different thought than I do essentially it come came down for me when I originally punched a ticket hogi irons Mitchell’s driver those are highend marks that you’re going to get from the mix there I think you have a general lack of upside that enters the mix and these are some of those reduced numbers that worry me ever so slightly they were borderline values to begin with and then when I added on the back end of the stuff I have a little bit more concerns than I did initially but I mean I’m not going to lie like I’m not getting out of the tickets at this point and if they win I will be coming on the show next week and celebrating it just like I celebrated Lowry and Rory uh during the xer so I think their borderline values at the price I think you just have to know what you’re buying into and maybe when I get done with this you guys can possess maybe a little better of an Outlook even than what I said there if you have a differing opinion I took Adam shank at 50 to1 unfortunately that is a number that’s been on the move against us I wrote about this on the Action Network Best Bets article that we do on Monday before that number mov so thought 50 to1 was a great price for him you have some of that lack of Texas pedigree inside of my sheet you see that a little bit with his lack of course history that he’s presented here but uh when you take weighted long iron production expected driving bent grass putting there were only two players that ranked above him the first is Jason day who’s the defending Champion so there’s a reason why he’s won this contest the SE second one would be Peter quest which Peter Quest broke my model this week I got him at 100 to one I bet this to win 12 units versus the typical seven that I do if I’m being honest here and I I this is a very aggressive stance I’m about to say it’s not quite to the highend nature that we got at the Valero but when Cory Connors won the Valero at 250 to1 when he was a Monday qualifier in that position and Quest is not a Monday qualifier he’s getting in from his past results that he has put together but this is a player that has not been seen on Tour all the time because he wasn’t able to get his card and we’ve been in a spot with him to where I think he’s a legitimate top 50 player in the world when he gets these starts on tour and I normally in these positions would try to hand regress some of these totals because you always have to be concerned that limited sample size will push you in the wrong direction but I have 2023 data from him I can pull from my numbers love them in 2023 so when I Incorporated the 2023 stats in the 20 24 numbers I think you just have an elite driver of the ball who’s good with his long iron play and you get a position here of a golfer that really does have a high ceiling Cory Connors was number one at the Valero when he was the Monday qualifier this is not quite the same spot with Peter quest for me but this is a top 10 player in my model that I do believe that there’s different iterations of the market that you can consider him in I probably would go more for the upside answers than any of the safety marks because there’s still some want even say concerns with it it’s just he’s not a player playing every single week and there’s a lot of pressure on him when he does do these starts because at any moment he’s back to trying to Monday qualify for all these events but I really like them at 100 to one and then the last player that I will talk about is Garrick higo here at 125 to one uh my model saw this pos positive upside return from him that he possessed in expected driving versus a generic course on tour he jumped from outside the top 25 to inside the top 10 I know a lot of the recent off the tea data is going to leave a ton to be desired but we say this all the time on this this show not every single course is built quite in the same way and this was a discussion that Nick and I had on better golf recently about JT Poston when I believe at the RBC Heritage I believe it was you can correct me if I was wrong on that Nick but a lot of these players like shank and some of these names they’re very specific in their schedule and now they all of a sudden have to play these larger events because they’re in there there’s the money you’re playing tournaments that you’re not normally used to taking on and I and I do think that when you get them at more of one of these prototypical tracks that makes sense and I I know for shank this is a long course and you could make some arguments about that maybe not necessarily being ideally suited but my model loved him like he was inside the top eight win Equity candidates I think that the movement around him is very sharp uh he’s a sharp mover in all the matchup markets and it’s against a lot of players that I respect this week and my model seems to agree with a lot of those takes so I I thought shank at 50 was value I would make an argument that shank even at 40 45 is still value so that’s my outright card I wasn’t expecting to have 0.91 units at risk here but this is where I ended up I love it I want to touch on a couple see my price on shank I got shank at 35 as my number so I think even if 4042 is the best number still out there for me in Illinois at least I think I’m I’m G to go after it I spoiler alert he is my one of done pick oh I get to pick Spencer’s guy today too that I forgot about I I can’t give you I can’t give you Adam shank now as an option I guess correct um I just want to real quick and Roberto said it too pre-show I I truly like I would still think I’m interested in Stephen jger if we do have one or two more like elite players in this field the fact that he’s not there and the number is 35 to1 on bet 365 like that’s almost my favorite out outright play of the year I think like in terms of form I I don’t know like right now current form he probably is the best golfer in the field in my opinion I know Roberto you kind of said that I like who’s better right now like Jordan spe okay pedigree wise yes sewo Kim for half the odds absolutely not i’ like sure he’s good but Jason day like I’m sorry Spencer but I think I’d take Jagger heads up over Jason day Min Le’s got a ton of upside I’m just feel like he’s the shortest Alex norin every single book loves Alex noren Alex noran’s actually lighting it up this season Spencer Weir just a year early on that debacle Adam Scott is just priced that way because he’s got the name value and a beautiful face and a better better looking swing then on extremely like yeah dude give me I feel like I’d still be interested at Stephen jger at like 22 to one in this field I wouldn’t take it like obviously we get 35 but I don’t know I think that’s that’s the best play on the board this week and it’s a German Hammer so what are we going to do I think there are a lot of guys who are priced ahead of him who have bigger names who aren’t playing as well right now and then you have other guys who are playing well but I don’t think their ceiling is as high as his the only person who I think doesn’t fit either one of those two molds is SIU Kim who’s playing phenomenal Golf and he has 11 starts this year none worse than a tie for 44th but it’s a putting contest this week and I don’t know that he has that upside whereas when Steph jger won in Houston sure he’s lost Strokes putting five of his last six starts but the one G the one week where he did gain Strokes he G over six Strokes for the week on the green so he does upside with the putter which I think is something you need to consider this week because you’re goingon to need to get into that 2500 par range especially with there being some projected weather coming in uh with rain on Thursday night into Friday and then potentially on Saturday so the course could play really soft which would also potentially even give him a bigger Advantage off of the te because of how far he carries the ball so G be a lot a lot of mid irons for him when other people are hitting four and fives yeah I think I think he’s I like his upside as much as anybody else’s this week um Nick who else you got on your card I’m riding the Adam shank play I think Spencer’s dead on everything about his game and just the famili familiarity what’s so how do I say that word that’s familiarity that’s that’s a tongue twister for me also every time that I I say it on air I always like question myself why I’ve gone down that route yeah the familiarity and just the consistent success on Ben gr green means if his game’s in form and the distance for me is grading extremely well he’s hitting the driver very very well this season he’s a big dude uh Indiana guy believe right so plays a ton of Midwest golf on Ben grass I I like that so yeah that’s right boiler up uh so I’m going to move on Adam shank at 40 to1 I know 50 to one’s a fantastic ticket but again I have him priced at 35 and on a card where like Spencer I kind of went wild wild west on outrights in this mid to Upper tier range I think Adam shank fits that just fine I did take Min mle as you guys know 29 to one I just think like the upside he’s someone that could get extremely hot with the putter grades top five for me in B grass putting it’s just what approach game shows up but like Stephen jger um like Matias Schmid like these guys Bomb It Off The Tea it’s going to be a different course for the guys that hit that long especially when you’re as long as minu Lee uh Davis Thompson just because he’s like a love child of mine 66 to1 I think every course fits him well but when he can really light it up off the tea I think that’s a good spot for him uh Matias Schmid 100 to one and then I did take it like a safe guy who graded extremely well for me let me tell you his price I mentioned his name earlier I had Mark harbard at 44 to1 I don’t know if that’s bad pricing by my numbers but 60 to1 I bet 365 for Mark hubard so hubard Schmid Thompson shank joerger mini mini gives me some uh he reminds me somewhat of Jason day in that he is long off the te great short game can get really hot with the putter wouldn’t quite quite put him on Jason day’s putting level because Jason day’s done it for over a decade uh right but if the approach play spikes I think this could be a great week for him yeah I kind of look at him like jger like when jager’s putter spikes as Spencer has said for like the last two years if if he can have a spike round with a putter like it’s his tournament to lose I kind of feel the same way with minwu and his irons and to compare him to Jason day he’s got much better clothing that he wears with the lul lemon so I some clothes that actually fit so I will take Min over Jason day there too Spencer if you want another uh like one andone bet or something like that for the Future these oneandone bets have gone disastrously bad for me like you got the win Roberto I don’t know how you got a push last week so what was your guys bet I forgot it I was when I was listening I was on the road we had so Spencer pulled some numbers from when the dinosaurs roam the Earth uh for Russ this how web gets this is how web’s good in my model by the way but yes continue years old hasn’t finished better than like 35th on the corn on the the corn tour the champions tour PJ tour Champions officially uh since like 2018 and he’s playing Russ Cochran 65 years old his son is Eric Cole’s caddy so that’s the connection they’re playing together Spencer wanted to find a way to back them there’s nobody offering matchups with with Russ Cochran so we came up with a matchup where I think I took Norman xiong and McCormack against Russ Cochran and Eric Cole After the first round xang and McCormick so they were trailing for most of it uh and then they birdied like three or four in a row they were up by three shots going into the second round first round was best ball second round was alternate shot which is where I wanted to fade Cochran and Cole the most and somehow they shot a better score if not the same score as the day before on Alternate shot which is way more impressive and my guy shot even so we ended up pushing I believe on the last hole or two Cochran and Cole made a bogey or a double Bogey and on the 18th hole or so that was their last hole and then on my team’s last hole we made a birdie so it looked great for me going into the second day it looked poorly with a couple holes left no blood though so neither of us will pick each others that is that is the most degenerate bet I’ve ever heard and I abely like no one has any action on those guys ever let alone in that event and you guys do so a couple things about that though like because I do think it was an interesting position here I my argument for Cole and Cochran was I thought they were a fringe team that could make the cut if they don’t go double bogey on 17 and then they end up paring 18 there it was a three shot lead with two holes to play Roberto like I don’t know how you weasel out of that one and got a push out of it um I also talked on the show and and I stand by the sentiment like as much as I can alternate shot for Cole and Cochran is actually good for them because Eric Cole cannot hit a driver to save his life you get Russ Cochran who’s GNA just put it Dead Center 230 yards is going to be better than what or the same of what Eric Cole’s doing we saw it an alternate shot they put it together yeah you could make an argument that maybe I got a little bit lucky to even be in that position to have a chance but I was hoping Cole and Cochran were going to make the cut and unfortunately if they don’t go double bogey par they do get in at a under par there I believe so I I like my stance there you know it is what it is Nick lucked out with Justin Thomas becoming Justin Thomas again doesn’t end up hitting anything when of the tournament before that I’m fading Justin Thomas and Nick just knows when to bet and when not to bet but Nick will have my oneandone pick I will give him two options I’m trying to figure out a way I would have liked to have taken Adam shank and that’s probably a good segue into the section right now but I’m not going to give Adam shank as an option because I don’t really want Nick to say yeah take Adam shank that’s a great pick yeah no um yeah shout out to everybody that tuned in to hear about Eric Cole and Russ Cochran because that is fantastic stuff but yeah one and done so let’s do it Roberto if you’re uh if you’re ready all right um I’ll get it started I don’t love the one I really don’t love the one dor board I don’t have a confident pick I have Benny on in there the guys I would have wanted to use SE Kim and Steven joerger I’ve already used so so I’ve got Benny on in there shank was somebody considered Jake knp somebody I considered Thomas dietry and McKenzie Hughes and luk list also players I considered I reserve the right to change to any of them I’m not sure what I’m going to do I don’t love this board I think what I’m I’m gonna figure out which guys I would like to use later and just by process of elimination come back down to one or two but I think it’s going to be between dietry Hughes and benan this is exactly what happened in Houston by the way oh I’m taking luk list that’s going to be my pick I’m on air this week I’m going to be talking about this and then all of a sudden I don’t know where stevenh joerger is your pick so I I don’t know what’s going on this is a fake rigged contest at this point it was list or Jagger and then list was in our feature groups and I didn’t want to have the conflict of rooting on list and also list can’t putt so uh or he can put now but the short game was what I was worried about that week it wasn’t the butter um but yeah I was confident about list last week I’ve been bullish on list I’m going to use him at some point so this might be the week I’ll go real quick Spencer because you’re going to be the entertaining portion I was between Alex nor and shock um Adam shank I think gets a little bit different but as you guys know I am in first so I don’t need to get it a whole lot different but I I’m still gonna go with Adam shank I think like you said Roberto it’s kind of a putting contest seu Kim is available for me but that kind of scared me away from him uh norin I can always support but I’m going to go with Adam shank the Midwest guy in the Ben grass so Spencer I need two options for you and based on our bet I get to choose who you go with so make them good this is a strategical move here because I have to figure out who I think you’re actually going to pick for me and that doesn’t even necessarily give give it away like maybe I want you to do this maybe I don’t want you to do this okay um I like the head games here you know who you have available right no well you should pull that up go ahead I got it I got it you can’t use Jagger you can’t use Ry and I think you’re clean other than that okay um Jordan spe or Alex noren that’s tough I think with you being in 10th Place more people ahead are likely to play defense and play Alex norin I’m gonna make you go with Alex noron I feel like if for your placement you’re not like out of it by any means you’re one win away from being right up there but Jordan speed has that upside and I don’t think anybody else will play him so yeah you’re going to not gain much ground Alex nor just as a head up in I don’t even I don’t even want Alex norin I have made an absolute disastrous mistake in this contest oh you got to take Alex norn thank you JT so just as an update in the prior two tournaments because there was no one and done for us last week at curich in the prior tournament half of our pool picked Patrick Klay who got a couple million dollars for his third place finish and then the week before that we had another four people pick Scotty sheffler including Nick to Vault him into first place so Nick is in first place by over a million and then we have a handful of golfers a handful of pool players between1 and $2 million behind and then uh we have a few others hanging out with Spencer a little further back but we’ll see what happens this week big couple weeks coming up where Memorial next week I believe and then sorry not Memorial we have Wells Fargo next week and then after that we have the PGA Championship so that’s potentially eight million bucks you can win in those two weeks plus another I think uh around two this week uh probably between 1 and one N I haven’t checked the purses but uh not a ton of action coming this week but next two weeks could be huge hopefully we get a winner who’s not Scotty um for more than $2 million among us because was immediately dwarfed yeah well Wells Will be$ million so that should be I think the same as the PGA can I ask a question before we we move this show out into the end of it cuz it’ll help me sleep better at night at this point in the hypothetical world that and I’ll just include them all as one that I would have said Adam Scott Jordan spe Jason day with Alex Norton like would would I have gotten any of those other options outside of Alexon I probably would have given you I like Adam Scott this week I probably would have gave you Jason day if you kep you probably should have kept noran off there I obviously I big brained this and it was probably too straightforward like a solution I was hoping that you wouldn’t go this route like I know that we have talked about not necessarily liking the top of the board and you mentioned how Alex nor was a potential route that you were going to take which in theory doesn’t really make sense for me to probably include him just because you’re in first place so you’re front running the contest it’s a lot different using Alex noren there than me being in 10th in this position but I I was trying to get some way possible that I could land on Jordan spe because of the upside I think this is a brilliant spot for him to use in one andone contests I know people are up with what we kind of have and that would have been my selection either him or shank and now I have here’s what will be fitting though Nick with all the Alex norin stuff that has happened with us over the past two years if he at least wins this contest I feel like this will be the ultimate where one thing’s gonna or the other is gonna happen either I’m gonna love Alex norin and you will hate him more than you ever have or vice versa of that answer no it’s great the week that I’m technically fading him and you were trying to fade him to get me to pick JT or to to get Jordy we still can’t get Alex noron right and he wins it and helps you out and hurts me again so that’ll be perfect fingers crossed all right guys do we have any more bets on your cards for this week I know you had the robust outright Spencer no that’s that’s it for me right now the only other wager that I was considering and I don’t think I’m going to get there just from a safety answer and I would love to hear your guys’s or I guess Nick your opinion on this uh do you have any thoughts on BOS versus Ben Griffin in a matchup the market hates B Hustler I know I and Ben Griffin grades really well for me but so does Bo Hustler and what’s the price let me pull up where the markets at on him I would lean oh yeah so it’s what Griffin minus 120 I feel like I’d still lean Bo Hustler there I would have Bo hostler as a slight favorite yeah I thought at plus 100 it was in intriguing number the only thing that pushed me off of it is if you take some of the safety numbers which will matter here with a tournament with a cut Griffin saw a nice increase inside my model where hosler went in the opposite direction I I would probably make an argument here that Hustler’s better suited as like a high upside sort of play than he would be in any of these safety markets and I think that’s where the market is reacting in this spot to begin with but from a statistical perspective Ben Griffin was one of the big decreasers for me when I looked at expected putting on this course so that’s kind of what pushed me in the direction of wanting to fade him but I don’t think I’m going to ultimately get there I do think plus 100 is value but how much value we’re talking about I guess is what’s up in the air right now just because we’re we’re looking at a golf end Hustler that clearly has a lower floor agree yeah I would agree with that so nothing else for me that was the only other thing I was considering right now I I’ll probably before this is all said and done bet Peter quest in one of these placement markets as a top 10 or 20 to get a little bit more exposure that way oh I wanted to touch on Quest earlier uh just remarkable story so this guy was chasing Mondays last year and eventually got some starts and notably tyer 4th the rocket mortgage or so tyer 14th last year here at the Byron Nelson and then tyer fourth at the rocket mortgage classic to get him that special temporary status that got him some more starts that got he didn’t get enough points to become a full PJ tour member but he’s been on the corn fery tour where this year he’s got six starts five miscuts and a t-47 but he mondayed into the Valero Texas open Tough Golf Course there TPC San Antonio The Oaks Course ties for 10th there and then because of the top 10 finish he gets another start into the next event which is the pun the corales punana championship ties for ninth there and because he finished in the top 10 he gets another start which is this week where he finished in the top 15 last year so a lot of reason to like him hasn’t played at really any of the big big time courses so not playing on the toughest Challen toughest courses but he’s a guy who bombs the ball and he putts it really well so there’s definitely upside I bet him at the end of last year at certain times so I think Peter Quest is somebody who’s a really intriguing player to keep an eye on this week and hopefully I’ll be able to call some of his shots on some featured whole action later this week um but but very intrigued by him how many guys in the history of the PJ tour have had two starts on the PJ tour two top 10 while in the same season missing over 80% of their cuts on the cor crate tour I don’t know uh weird but interesting so keep an eye on Peter Quest this week guys let’s do a quick rapid fire we touched on most of the guys at 35 to1 or shorter already so I will bump this out to the 40s at 45 to1 we touched on Keith Mitchell so we’ll skip him Thomas C Tre is 45 to1 Mackenzie Hughes is 45 to1 if you had to between one of those two guys in the outright Market at that number on a free ticket which one would you take Nick I’d go with dri Spencer I would take McKenzie Hughes all right moving down didn’t wi here last year but he won the prior two times this tournament has been held at TPC Craig Ranch KH Lee man who said that it’s his goal to be known as the sexiest golfer in the world he’s 55 to1 this week Maverick mcely coming off a miscut last where he was partnered with Tom hogi is 60 to1 Aaron Ry is also 60 to1 if you had to take a ticket on Ry mcne or Lee which one did you take Nick Maverick for me got very close to getting there in in real life anyway so I’m gonna go here it’s a funny answer there because like the the one name that missed my card that was the closest was Maverick McNeely I I doubl down on that answer that Nick just gave this is a really nice spot for him I I there’s a lot of upside to be had one of the best Putters on the PJ tour over the last few years could go low this week B Hustler 60 to1 Sheamus power is also 60 to1 so and Mark Hubbert is 65 to1 Nick I know you have him on your card uh but among the other two guys which one do you guys like in the outright Market give me Sheamus I was very close to getting there too I think Maverick was one spot closer and then ran out of room so it didn’t get either but I like Sheamus I think his game’s coming back around and we know he’s got winning upside and and has pedigree of a big time player so give me Sheamus Hustler for me for a lot of the reasons that I talked about um there there’s upside numbers like he was one of the biggest climbers that I had in my sheet for just win Equity compared to overall rank um couldn’t quite get there at the price that we have to pay in the market but when you get rid of some of the safety returns for him he’s a top 20 player for me in this field Sheamus Power by the way coming off a tie for 12th at the RBC Heritage gain Strokes on approach in five consecutive tournaments uh we know he can be a streaky player so somebody to watch out for this week and potentially next couple couple weeks when he gets some starts um we’ll end with this one going down to 75 to one Nick you already have Davis Thompson so I’ll leave him there uh Doug gim is 75 to1 Ben Griffin’s also 75 to1 our boy Kevin Yu is 90 to1 Ryan Fox is 90 to1 Luke Liss is 90 to1 and the man who just doesn’t stop making Cuts Chan Kim is also 90 to1 so between gim Griffin you list Fox and Chan Kim which one would you rather have the ticket on to win outright Nick personally it would be Chan Kim but financially I would actually take Ryan Fox in this spot for the upside Spencer here’s the problem Roberto and you and I know this probably better than anybody I would I’m going to say Kevin I’m also not so sure that Kevin Yu can make a putt ever from any distance from any range like he’s dead last in my model and expected putting for this tournament um ball striking numbers Elite maybe more of a first round leader play than a four round play if you can trust his putter for that uh but we know if you listen to the show we love his upside we love how he stripes the ball uh probably rather Target him on a tougher Golf Course wor than this one but who knows we saw him get close to the John Deere and I believe he was in the top three in Strokes game putting there last year so he can do it probably not going to stay hot for multiple weeks at a time but for four days Anything Can Happen fellas where can we find your content this week and over the next few weeks uh at better golf pod on Twitter and at stiix XTX pics on Twitter as well but yeah excited to get back at it and uh as we get loose for the elevated event next week at the Wells Fargo and the PGA Championship two weeks after that Spencer where can we find your work this week yeah like Nick said there’s a lot of interesting tournaments coming up including major championships so there’s going to be a lot of content that we’re going to have here at Action Network you can get some of my deeper thoughts we’ll look into this board on Wednesday to figure out exactly where the market has moved where the value sits right now if I had a clean slate to build from where exactly would I go I include that in my Wednesday article every single week at action I will have some in tournament bets didn’t have any last week I talked to you about it Roberto very challenging tournament at the Zurich to be able to provide some of that in tournament information we’re going to be back to having statistical numbers to be able to pull from so uh that’ll be out during week and then you can also get my model over at Roto baller awesome highly recommend checking out that model so much that you can take a look at weigh yourself and come up with your own projections for each week so highly recommend checking that out you can find me on Twitter Roberto a213 and you can find me this week along with da points in our feature group and Mark key group coverage along with some featured holes as well so very excited to be a part of the coverage for this week’s CJ cup Byron Nelson going to be doing uh three out of the four tournaments for PJ Tour live in the great state of Texas so I’m very excited about that as a native Texan uh hopefully Jordan SM plays well because I’m sure he’ll be in some of our in some of our coverage uh but even if he doesn’t play well we know it’ll be entertaining nonetheless uh of course you can always find everything you need related to learning about sports gambling and what picks you should make on The Action Network app I got you covered here from golf perspective but it’s also the NBA Playoffs n NFL draft was last week Spencer JC leam went way under 14 and a half uh didn’t quite land on number five exactly but strong play there uh you can find all of our coverage for any sport you want baseball uh basketball offseason football bets we’ve got people betting on the Rookie of the Year already so be sure to check it out on the Action Network app website or in podcast form I want to give a big thanks to our producer Noah needer Hofer for doing all the hard work and getting us across the finish line and otherwise just want to say a big thanks to everybody else who makes this podcast as possible especially our head producer Matt Mitchell along with David Payne so thanks again to you at home for listening and here’s to hopeing you hit the green this week at TPC Craig Ranch