Who Will WIN 2024 Kentucky Derby? Horse Racing Picks, Odds & Strategy | The Action Network Podcast

Action Network’s Brendan Glasheen is joined by horse racing experts Mike Conti and Sean Zerillo to discuss the 2024 Kentucky Derby and the rest of the horse racing weekend on The Action Network Podcast presented by BetMGM. Click here for more horse racing picks: https://bit.ly/HorseRacingAction

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00:00 – Introduction
01:05 – Kentucky Derby Betting Preview
04:42 – Kentucky Derby Best Bets
18:25 – Best Longshot Bets
25:00 – Kentucky Derby Exotic Picks
32:10 – Kentucky Derby Undercard Picks

#kentuckyderby #sportsbetting #horseracing

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#AuthorBrendanGlasheen #AuthorSeanZerillo #AuthorMikeConti #bluewirevideo

welcome into the Action Network podcast presented by bet MGM the fastest 2 minutes in sports just days away the 150th Kentucky Derby Saturday at Church Hill Downs in Louisville Brendon glashen your host we have Mike KY joining us our Action Network horse racing contributor and our pal Shan zerel a jack of all trades great to have you with us call this your Kentucky Derby Best Bets SL preview uh we got a lot to get to here and hopefully 30 minutes or so to get you set for the weekend just a couple of quick notes guys uh you know fierceness is the favorite for this coming weekend coming off a victory in the Florida Derby uh couple of uh interesting uh notes as far as the post position draws they’re not favorable for fierceness the favorite in Sierra Leon those are some things to call out and that means uh the horses are going to move down one spot in the starting Gates and that means epic ride is into the field uh just etching into that 20th spot so with that being said Shan zerillo I’ll throw to you first uh your lead off thought as we get set for the Derby this weekend well I’d like to try to cut the field in half with Mike you know anytime I’m taking this 20 horse derby field I want to eliminate about 20 of the horses off the bat so I’m going to toss out some names and I’m going to see if Mike disagrees with any of them uh and if he has any to potentially add to the list so the number one D knock to me is a rabbit I’m G to toss him the number five catalytic is uh 30 to1 doesn’t fit for me on the past performances the number six just steel I like on the past performances but he has not worked well apparently this week so I’m going to toss the number six just steel even though he did pop up as a potential selection for me the number 10 to password coming over from Japan I prefer the other Japanese horse and also to password does not look great at chal Downs uh the 12 track Phantom is a rabbit adding blinkers I think he’s just going to go too fast and then fade the 13 West Saratoga doesn’t fit for me the 14 endlessly is a bit of a wild C because he’s coming over from a synthetic track sometimes that works sometimes it doesn’t it tends to be that these synthetic Racers or Racers who do well on synthetic tend to do better on the turf so I’m going to toss the 14 endlessly but I won’t be shocked if he ends up getting in the money the 16 Gro the first at 50 to1 and then finally the 21 epic ride the final horses I’m tossing so Mike amongst that group of nine horses that I just listed out any you disagree with and any that you would add to the list yeah I so Sean I agree most with you uh just steel is a horse that I’m keeping included I’m not tossing just steel I think for a lot of the reasons that you just mentioned and look I mean who in this sport doesn’t have a little bit of a soft spot for the coach D Wayne Lucas who’s the trainer of just steel um in addition other horses that I would toss I’m tossing both Japanese horses uh so also adding in 11 Forever Young if you look at the history of the Derby and the horses who have shipped in from overseas they have not historically run well and I think that that Trend will most likely continue um the only other one that you mentioned that I or didn’t mention that I would add in to tossing is number 20 Society man if you look at what the Wood Memorial which is the prep race that Society man ran in if you look at what the wood has produced in terms of Kentucky Derby Runners it’s not good it’s not a it’s not a high quality prep race historically and so I’m just going to take and toss him as well yeah I was on the fence with the 20 Society man so interesting to hear you at him maybe I’ll end up taking him off my tickets he is in with a group of nine horses for now there’s a couple that I’m going to try to beat uh which we’ll get to when we talk about our top wi contenders but uh yeah I think we’re in mostly agreement with at least seven or eight horses there uh who you can just take off your tickets and then I think there’s other correlated ways you could go about betting this race depending on the pace again we’ll talk about the favorites in a second but you know if you can pair closers together like catching freedom and crer Le own horses you think may be coming from back um or you could be going more with horses who may be coming from the front with more moderate pace so but you know no matter how you’re handicapping that race I just I always like to find horses I’m not interested in using no matter how the pace shakes out and then we can start talking about the pace and the favorites and which long shots we like to come in underneath so uh yeah I think we got a pretty good starting point once we cut down half the field all right there you go we eliminate the Clutter uh for this Best Bets episode which is uh which is fitting for the purp purposes of our audience and what we’re trying to accomplish here so with that uh knowing that you are mostly in agreement on which forces you can uh toss off your card let’s discuss the favorite win Contender Shan zero you can start us yeah I’m gonna take Fier Ness as my lone a on top uh I think Mike has a bit wider of an opinion as to who he thinks could win this race and you know in terms of how I handicap this I think fness wins this race 50% of the time so getting 5 to2 on the morning line and probably goes off at 2:1 or 3 to2 and there’s still an edge there when you really think about it right you know the difference between 20 to1 and 40 to1 is like the difference between even money and minus 110 um the difference between 3 to2 and uh five to2 you know is the difference between I’m doing the math potentially wrong here in my head but like plus 233 and plus 150 I me it’s it’s a much bigger difference in terms of percentage because it’s you’re jumping by 7 to 10% once you’re getting towards those favorites where with the the long shots you’re jumping like two or 3% every time it doubles so uh I think the odds are going to be ripe if it’s above even money essentially but I’m still going to use him as my lone favorite on top if he runs his best race I don’t think anybody else beats him and he’s already run a 110 buyer speed figure which is I believe the highest for any Derby prep race in the past decade uh only one other horse Mystic Dan has even run above 100 but fierceness also has a 105 from the brsh cup juvenile last year uh whatever race he won at the end I think it was the brsh cup juvenile in November um so he has the top two speed figures of any horse in this field and normally you’d say okay you know you expect some regression you expect other horses to improve no I don’t think he’s run his best race yet and he’s training as well as any horse of Churchill Downs in the week leading up to the race by all accounts from Walkers and his trainer Todd Pletcher he’s sitting on a career best race he lost two starts back in the Holy Bowl was the first start of his form cycle didn’t seem to have enough in the tank down the stretch came back set the record for this group in terms of speed figures for the year with the 110 and the Florida Derby and just blasted away from that field and if he’s taking any sort of improvement off that race they’re not going to touch him if he just runs back to that race he probably still win so I think the rest of this field needs him to regress and then they also need to have somebody step up in to take down fierceness um and I also you know I don’t mind the post at all uh first off sliding from 17 to 16 you know and in terms of the draw maybe it changes his luck a little bit I’ll still have that 17 saddle cloth on him and horses with the 17 saddle cloth are 0 for 44 in the derby but in 2020 at chural Downs they changed the gate it used to be 15 horses in a main gate and then a five horse auxiliary gate with a kind of a gap in between them that forced those outside horses to jump over and like crush the entire field over from the start now that there’s been that auxiliary gate I mean the first year they introduced it the 17 horse finished second um so I I think there’s just you know more of a fair play in terms of how the early part of that race goes but secondly all of the speed Ison to is inside all of the other horses who I expect to go early dorno um uh just a touch uh I’m definitely missing one track Phantom so all those horses are going to be going on his inside and he he just wants to go out get over and by the end of that first turn be sitting you know One path or two paths off the horse in first place or if they give him the lead he’d be happy to take it but yeah he’s shown versatility the ability to win on the lead he’s shown versatility with the ability to sit off the leader and then pass horses in the stretch and I don’t think he’s going to face as much track trouble uh or traffic during the races other horses who are in the inside like see might so I like to sier Leon I respect them I just I think with the closers they’re going to need a hot pace which they’ve had the past few years and they’re going to need traffic to clear out for them and you just need a lot to go right fierceness doesn’t need as much to go right he just needs to run as fast as he has in the past best speed in the field Mike kti and ASO teased you might have interest in a couple more horses that could win this thing yeah you know look fierceness to Sean’s Point fierceness runs his race I think he’s an absolute freak the questions are who did he face in that Florida Derby again number of those horses are coming back the way he moved so effortlessly Johnny ve never even had to shake the reins on him in that Florida Derby it was like he was just Galloping around the track and to do it in the fashion he did Super impressive when you’re talking about a 20 horse field and again you know we also don’t know like fierceness has thrown up some Clunkers in his career like which fierceness shows up today right I mean you go back and I understand it was in the slop but back in October last year in the champagne I mean he finished 20 lengths behind the leader as the oddson favorite in that race you know again he’s been training well he looked superb in the Florida Derby I don’t know five to2 in a 20 horse field just too many things that can go wrong I’m not going to let fierceness beat me in any of my bets but I’m looking elsewhere for top selections uh and my top selection I’m going a little bit further to the inside to the number eight just a touch a couple of interesting things to look at with just a touch one he only made his career debut back in January similar to his sire his father justify who won the uh Derby and won the Triple Crown as a three-year-old who never ran as a 2-year-old justify you know put away this age-old um uh just something you know something that hadn’t been done before where you hadn’t run it two and then you win it three to win the Derby at three and so just a touch coming in very very lightly raced coming in off I would argue a really good if there’s such a thing second place finish in the Bluegrass stakes and you know Sierra Leon came motoring home in that blueg grass to win uh and not to knock Sierra Leon too much because I do like him somewhat but I think every stretch run he’s looked very green head’s been cocked he’s drifted side to side Just a Touch looked really good and the jockey of a touch florant jaru when he came off after that Bluegrass he said that he thought that just a touch had another gear and he didn’t know as though that he was going to need it he he thought Sierra Leon was too far back wasn’t going to be able to get there if Just a Touch can take a step forward and given how lightly raced he’s been I think it’s very uh realistic to assume that he’s going to take another step forward that you know look out right because he’s a horse who again doesn’t need the lead is going to be forwardly placed or more forwardly placed and again Sean mentioned it in a field of 20 horses there’s possible weather coming this weekend to Louisville rain possibly Thursday rain possibly Friday and Saturday as well you know the question then becomes like what does that do to everybody else how does that impact the closers right it’s one thing to take dirt in the face it’s another thing to take mud in their face and so you want a horse I think that’s going to be a little bit more forwardly placed I don’t know as though that you want track Phantom who I think is a rabbit as as as Sean mentioned but so for a lot of those Reasons I’m ending up on my top selection number eight Just a Touch at 10 to one yeah I mean we just have them reversed I have just a touch in second as my second choice and um you know he was second the entire way around and the Boer asked the horses who finished in front of and behind him both came from the back of the pack Sierra Leon and uh the 21 horse in this field now epic ride so yeah I think that race was very impressive and a very impressive second place finish and if I’m picking another horse to win this race not to use underneath in second or third in Exotics as prices but if I’m using a be horse to actually win this race on multi-race tickets or on two-day tickets or on just straight Exotics it’s just a touch and it’s fierceness and I’m probably not interested in anybody else as true Wing contenders uh which means I’m against the four catching freedom and the two sier Leon I just expect a slightly more moderate Pace this year we’ve gotten Wicked Paces the past two years which Mage and which allowed Rich strike to come from the back of the pack and win those races and ultimately neither of them ended up winning another race after that so they were the best on that day they got a great Pace setup I don’t think uh the pace is necessarily going to set up for catching Freedom or Si Leone like it has in recent iterations of the race you T to agree with that Mike yeah I I do think that there’s I I generally agree with you I do think though that there’s going to be quite a bit of pace I mean track Phantom has proved that one trick pony no pun intended I mean the only thing that that horse can do is go to the lead and so I do think like you know thinking back and you can correct me here Sean on how many years ago this was I think it was like four or five years ago now when promises fulfilled went to the lead in the derby and S like some crazy fast fractions up front um that to me is like what track Phantom is going to do now I think the difference this year is does anybody else go with track Phantom and try to like really push that pace so track Phantom may be out on the lead possibly by himself depending upon what fierceness wants to do what dor wants to do if track Phantom’s on the lead by himself I don’t necessarily consider a one horse Pace the pace of the race because it’s what’s the rest of the field then doing it’s how many horses are in that early group as I would like to look at it as opposed to a single horse that’s just out in front which I think is more of a possibility this year so I do think that there will be from a fraction standpoint good Pace but I don’t know as though that there will be that group of horses is necessarily up front like we’ve seen in the last few years yeah I think dorno has to go from the one post and he likes to be forward as well uh but yeah after those two like maybe those two are Pace dueling out in front and then there’s a second flight that just the touch and furiousness is in yeah you know that are your real contenders just kind of waiting for those sua fade so yeah I think they may try to Rabbit it and you know with these longer shots it may be their only chance to win the race is just like get out to a huge lead and hope that the rest of the field doesn’t time the Run correctly and let you get a little bit too to lose so yeah if I had a 51 and shot in the derby that had any sort of early speed I would just send him and hope for the best so you’re both down on Sierra Leon because of the approach and how this particular horse has to make kind of a late a late push Sean yeah he hasn’t impressed me as much you know visually as he has with others I think he’s gotten pretty favorable setups in terms of the pace and now you’re just adding more horses in front of him and there’s just so much that can go wrong if he gets checked once if he gets the stop once just because there’s a horse in his path or that moves over in his path his race is over in the same respect you know fierceness breaks poorly his race is probably over too so in a 20 horse field so much can go wrong which is why you know people do say it’s difficult to take a short price I’m not necessarily betting you know a th000 bucks on fierceness to win it three to2 but I am going to single him on top and try to find Value making him the winner because I do think he is the likeliest winner but yeah uh I just think there’s other horses who have a similar running style to sier Leon who make get the jump and we could talk about that in the long shots but honor Marie uh Mystic Dan these are other horses who are going to be coming from further back but a bit in front of where Sierra Leon’s going to start and all they need is just to get the right trip and they could outrun him so significantly better odds than horses who I think have just a difficult just as much of a difficult path uh but who could potentially outrun them and I agree Sean you know and I mentioned it before look Sierra Leon super talented horse there’s not you know I’m not going to take anything away from the horse I mean horse has virtually done nothing wrong he’s a nose away from being a perfect four for four he’s continued to you know progress in Fr from a buyer speed figure perspective in each and every start um and I don’t think that he’ll have any uh issues getting the distance but I mentioned it in both of his last two starts if you go back and watch those races whether you want to call it greenness or whatever you want to call it there’s something a little off about his the way he like finishes the race his head’s a little cocked he’s moving he’s changing lanes throughout the stretch right when he doesn’t need to be there’s a greenness to that and in this race you can’t afford to do that as you mentioned any one like misstep whether it’s by the horse or a poor decision by The Jock and I love Tyler gleon so it’s nothing against him but any one wrong move when you’ve got a deep closer like Sierra Leon it the race is over for you at that point so look I’ll let him beat me on top I think when we talk about you know um vertical Exotics something to be considered but we’ll get there okay yeah he’s a son of Gunrunner and Gunrunner used to do the same thing changing leads in the stretch until he turned four Once Gunrunner got a little bit older he matured and you know I I love Gunrunner he’s one of my all-time favorite horses I love betting on his sons and on his daughters but I do think these horses tend to mature at four instead of three and I don’t necessarily view them as Derby contenders based on the Pedigree as much as others might I just think they take a little bit longer to fully mature so yeah it’s another reason the greenness certainly I think as as Sierra Leon gets a little bit older maybe by the time the brers Cup Classic rolls around or even into his four-year-old season if he continues racing I think he’s going to be much more dangerous so with that analysis in mind with the favorites as we discussed some horses to toss at the front and we’ll get to Exotics as Mike teased we’ll get to that next favorite long shots you guys get a couple zerillo uh go ahead yeah I’ve got two that I really like and then two and a tier below them so the two that I like the 15 domestic product this is the other Chad Brown horse he’s got Sierra Leon and he’s got the 15 domestic product in here and domestic product doesn’t necessarily fit on the speed figures I talked about the speed figures with fierceness being so far ahead of the rest of the field domestic product doesn’t fit on the speed figures his buyers are in the 80s but he’s been training as well as any horse leading up to this race he’s been giving Sierra Leon everything he can handle in their trips around the track this week he also has a category for sprinting not for distance which is another reason why I think people may not see it in him but watching his races he seems to want more ground and he seems to be working very hard at the end of his races so the 15 domestic product I think is going to make a huge jump up in speed scores here Chad Brown always getting his horses finally tuned Off the Bench and then the number 19 resilience for b m also seems to be working as well as anybody at church all Downs this week that is what I look for when I’m Happ capping these races so horses that I like they’re all going to have that in common this week is that they’re working well at Churchill Downs uh but he ran a career best race in the wood which as as Mike talked about not a great prep race has not produced a Derby winner in quite some time but he did that coming off of a layoff and now second start back he he wasn’t expecting to win that race I don’t think Bill M expected him to run as well as he did now coming back second start off the layoff looking better in training I think he’s ready to fire what should be a career best performance so with the number 17 resilience or with with the number 17 fierceness I’m going to try to get the number 15 domestic product or the number 19 resilience into an Exacta and then if we’re expanding it out a little bit into Trifecta superfectas or mostly trifectas you don’t want to build your superfecta ticket too deep it would just cost too much money but for Trifecta purposes uh the number seven honor Marie also working extremely well I just think getting a little bit too much buzz and I don’t think you’re going to get that 20 to1 price tag that you currently see on the board I think he’s going to end up settling closer to 12 to1 or 15 to1 just because of all the people talking about him this week but another horse like Sierra Leon who’s going to be coming from the back just going to be getting a much better price on the seven honor Marie then the number three Mystic Dan ran a one1 buyer in the southwest Stakes but he did that over uh muddy track so has the second best speed score in this field aside from fierceness but he did do it in the mud you can move him up though as Mike also mentioned if there’s going to be rain in the weather this weekend he’s definitely a horse I would consider moving up my rankings if if it is going to rain or if the ground is going to be a little soft so the 15 and the 19 my top long shots the seven and the three on the next tier um yeah and that’s how I rank out my uh my next tier of horses for now but just the touch like the eight you know it’s I have him before that tier of horses just to be very clear I’m just in the exact I’m going to try to get a priz in there right Mike KY you’d already expressed your favorite uh long shot to a degree the number eight horse how else does the card shake out oh we’re going we’re going bigger than that glash that eight the eight is the top selection for me favorite long shot though zerillo stealing a little bit of the Thunder here uh is domestic product and I’ll be honest there was a point in time where I was close to putting domestic product as my Top Choice in this race which to some people seems crazy I went back and watched that Tampa Bay Derby and the Holy Bull both of them I watched multiple times here’s what I love about domestic product a horse that can close into a slow pace that horse can do something special if given any bit of pace to run into and when I say slow just for everybody out there we’re talking domestic product running into fractions of 25 and one 51- one I would expect the the fractions of the Derby to be closer to like 24 and one and then maybe like a 48 and3 40 maybe a 49 and one half mile so we’re talking about and in horse racing a second is in a eternity of time and so this is a horse who’s been able to close into slow Paces he’s had to split horses weave through traffic didn’t have the cleanest of trips and yes Sean mentioned it before he’s gonna have to take a massive step forward from a buyer speed figure perspective but look you’re also talking about two of the very best in this game Chad Brown and irat Ortiz Jr anytime that I can get 30 to one on those connections on a clarich horse I if it’s just too hard to pass up I get it it’s the Derby but I I again I want to make this Crystal Clear there was a point in time on Sunday night when I did my first pass of the Derby and I thought that domestic product was going to be my Top Choice in this race so he’s absolutely uh my top long shot at 30 to1 I don’t think we’re going to get 30 to1 if we get anywhere near that though I think that there’s some interest there um another long shot that’s interesting to me which was one of Sean’s tosses is just steel again another son of justify I don’t think like the horse is he’s one of the most experienced horses in the race which you can argue on both sides of the equation is good or bad right have they run the horse too much has he had enough rest whatever it may be the horse ran a really good second to moth in the Arkansas Derby if you look at the pness future bets MTH is the heavy favorite in the pness so if Muth was in this race he would at the very least be the second choice behind fierceness if not maybe even contend with fierceness for that favorite spot so just steel to me at 20 to1 a really interesting horse he’s also run over this Churchill track twice he’s got a win in a third place finish so as a long shot somebody to think about somebody to include the last horse that I’ll mention that I think underneath on Exotics has to be used and it goes against a lot of what we’ve talked about in terms of closers is catching Freedom the horse again another deep closer he continues to improve he’s improved his fire speed figure every start of his career of his five starts but here’s the other reason jockey flavan Pratt is a board Pratt has had six Derby starts he’s been in the money five times one win one second and three thirds when you have a jockey that understands the way that this race unfolds with a horse at 8 to one that’s a horse that you have to use in your Exotics in my opinion okay excellent good stuff let’s uh you guys good to go to Exotics yeah let’s do it okay let’s do it here we go uh we’ll start exactus zerillo yes so if I’m playing my top two selections right just to touch and fierceness I’d want to do it cold I’d want to do a 178 Exacta cold no other Selections in there I think the way you Juice It Up way you make it more spicy and you can absolutely play that one um but I think the way to find some odds be to play the 17 fierceness on top of the 15 uh domestic product and then also on top of the 19 resist zilian $2 exactor would cost you $4 there but you would get much juicier odds if that ended up hitting also curious how Mike would go about playing domestic product considering we like this SP so much if he considers it a win playay show play I would go about that that’s that’s what I’m thinking I’m going to end up doing with domestic product if the odds are 30 to1 or 25 to1 even 20 to1 probably interested in a win place show bat in domestic product security here Mike’s thoughts on that but taking those same opinions right the 17 the eight the 15 the 19 that’s my superfecta essentially that’s how I’d play them in a trifecta the 17 on the first line the eight the 15 and the 19 on the second and third line so to come in either second or third a $1 Trifecta would cost you $6 there if you want to go and the same with the super uh the 17 on top of the 8151 19 second third fourth $1 super would cost you $6 so that’s the cheaper ways I’d go about playing the exactas the trifectas the superfecta if you want to get a little bit deeper into the weeds of the trifecta trying to find a way to play it the first is the caveman method where you can just do the 17 on top fierceness and then probably like seven to nine horses underneath him um the trimmer way to do it is to take the 17 who I like the 815 and 19 who I like and put those on two of the three lines so you have one ticket that’s 17 eight 151 19 in second in second and then a bigger group of horses in third and then a second ticket where you flip that second and third line so one ticket will be 17 815 19 and then a group of nine horses which includes 815 19 and then 17 that same group of eight or nine horses and then 8 151 19 and third so you’re trying to get fierceness in the money you’re trying to get one of just a touch or uh domestic product or resilience in the money and then a bigger group of horses all of which we discussed the horses who we didn’t toss out at the beginning as your third line I haven’t narrowed it down completely yet my initial group though was 378 1151 18 1920 I may swap out the 20 after what Mike and I discussed I may swap out the 11 Mike doesn’t like the 11 as much but yeah that’s you know all of my bets are keyed around the 17 winning and the 815 or 19 finishing second or third and then trying to find other prices to mix in there with them hopefully that makes some sense okay Mike why don’t you go ahead and uh attack here uh exact is Trifecta and a super perfecta yeah look glash I’m going to keep it pretty simple right I told you just a touch is where I’m landing as my top selection I’m gonna put him on top of every bet and and then I’m GNA you know mix and match pending upon odds so one thing that I would implore people to do is you know as when the race before the Derby finishes and they post it it goes official you can go and look at what are called probables to understand what your payouts are going to be on exactive you should be looking when you’re playing exactas you should be looking at the probables so that you don’t have to box things so that you can figure out how much should you bet because your do your base bet amount should vary based on what the potential winfall would be if your bet hits as an example the just a touch with fierceness Exacta let’s just say that it’s going to pay 30 bucks but the just a touch with domestic product is going to pay I don’t know zerillo help me maybe try to figure this out it’s going to pay like 200 bucks or something for a dollar 200 sure yeah 180 to 200 somewhere in there so yeah like to yeah yeah so if I’m doing that right you have to think about it and say okay so the the Just a Touch over fierceness is GNA it’s going to be five times less than what the just a touch with domestic product is going to be so that’s going to change the dollar amounts that I’m going to bet I think look we’ve learned this in the past betting a straight Exacta delivers the most value but there’s interesting ways that you can bet multiple straight exactas that doesn’t necessarily mean you’re going to be able to hit all of them but you figure out the right way to bet them that’s how you kind of can get an edge in horse racing that being said here’s how I’m going to go about it glash playing Just a Touch over domestic product I’m going to play Just a Touch over fierceness those are the two exactas that I’m going to pay play my Trifecta is going to look something like just a touch over domestic product and fierceness and then I’m going to put domestic product fierceness and catching Freedom the four in third so again that would the trifecta would be 8 over 1517 over 4517 um and so that’s the way that I’m going to play it if you’re going to play a super while like it can be a massive at times lifechanging payday it can get really expensive really quick I actually tend to stay away from it use my bank roll in other places throughout the day to build for the Derby so that I can bet big bigger Exotics and and listen hopefully and and you can read it onaction network.com hopefully you’ll be able to hit you know some of the multi-race Wagers which is where I anticipate being able to make even more money hopefully yeah and that’s that’s what I build towards too is you know and that’s mostly what I’m spending my time doing is narrowing down this field and finding which horses I actually like to win so in the multis I’m either closing out all my tickets with just the seven or just the 17 fierceness or I’m going to include some of the eight just to touch but it’s one of one or two or just one for me across multi- Ras tickets and as I said for the vertical Exotics for this race it’s just the 117 uh fierceness so yeah but may use just the touch across multi-race tickets I like to have at least two horses alive for the Derby it’s not not as much of a fun sweat uh when you’re alive at a pick four and pick five and you only have one horse left it definitely gets a little bit nerve-wracking good stuff I think the beauty too of podcasting is people can go back and Rewind and hit that 15sec back and they got to go down and write things back or grab a pen grab a pad you know it’s it’s definitely with the numbers for horse racing but we’re trying to say the names too and uh connect them together but yeah po pull up the post positions uh it’s an easy way to Compare the numbers as we’re talking about them yeah I think our producer is doing that as we uh also do this podcast too so he’s a he’s a good uh he’s a good lesson for that particular approach uh I’ll send it back to kti here for an undercard breakdown for Derby Day please yeah I look I I’ve finished all like I mentioned earlier at the top of the podcast I finished all my homework I’m gonna give one best bet on the undercard on Saturday and we’re going to go to race 10 which is the grade one Churchill Downs uh and I’m going to go to number three Bo Cruz he’s 10 to one on the morning line I’m not going to give the people some favorite this horse he won the Commonwealth last time out going into the Commonwealth I called just about anybody and everybody that I could to tell them that he was going to win this race he went off at six to one so he paid a pretty penny in that race and he won for fun I mean just going away and yes is this a step up in class going from grade three to grade one absolutely no no questions asked that being said I I very much expect this horse to continue to move forward he’s already won at this distance and he’s won at Churchill Downs so you you put those things you know you take those into into account you get jockey Jose Ortiz there’s just a lot to like about Bo Cruz at 10 to one I don’t think we’re getting 10 to one frankly on on Saturday but he is the best bet on the undercard and he will be a horse that I’m building multi-race tickets around as that single so that I can spread in some other races it’s a tremendous name too I was wondering if Adam Sandler was his jockey he and I will say this for those watching you cannot miss him on the track he’s a beautiful gray horse with a tail that has some black and gray in it when it’s swishing around you cannot miss him on the track you’ll know who he is does he does he run in construction boots oh God all right let’s uh go to the Kentucky Oak selections that’s for Friday and I know I’m glad Mike brought up weather and how that could play a factor uh earlier in or later in the week leading into Saturday so uh zerillo I can’t remember if you have thoughts for Friday’s card but uh what what do you got for us yeah no particular thoughts for the overall undercard on Friday but do have some thoughts regarding the horses working best leading into the Kentucky Oaks the 11 Ways and Means and the 13 just FYI those are the two horses I’m going to end up picking probably playing in an exact on top I’m going to go against the favorite the number eight tarfa who also looks tremendous I just think this is a very deep Oaks field I think it’s a much more competitive and wide openen race than the Kentucky Derby uh there’s like seven or eight horses I could see in this 14 horse field winning so very competitive to addition of the Oaks um I’m going to take though the 11 and the 13 Ways and Means and just the FYI and then the Oaks Derby double I’ll play those two with the number 17 fierceness and a two-day bet and hopefully we make some money going against the favorite tarfa but yeah I if I’m playing any uh multi- race tickets on Friday I’ll definitely be including tarfa as well just don’t think there’s enough value including her alongside fierceness and two other horses in a two-day bet uh but on a pick five I think there might be enough so yeah favorite favorite uh don’t don’t think there’s enough value to uh to necessarily go with that as your two-day bet but I’ll try to be tarfa and Tara’s jockey is Pratt Mike who you have you spoke highly of so far in this episode yeah um look I I agree with Sean I also think that this is a weekend where you try to throw out some favorites if you can and not saying totally toss them maybe not letting them beat you like I talked about with fierceness I actually am playing completely against tarfa here I’m not using her in any of my tickets if I get beat by her I get beat by her I’ll go to sleep Friday night I’ll wake up Saturday morning ready to fire uh for the Oaks though I ended up on number five torpedo Anna um she’s like her name suggests I mean torpedo torpedo I mean she’s a freak um there was a point in time a little a couple of months ago that there were talks of trying to get her into the derby um trainer Kenya mCP who can be somewhat loud and boisterous at times I mean he said that someone better bring a beast to counter her because she’s coming in the best form of her life she’s been training just lights out and at 5 to one you know give me that chance second off the layoff another horse who’s run at Churchill before she’s got one win and one second from two career starts really hasn’t done much wrong three wins uh from four career lifetime starts so thorpedo Anna is the top selection for me um one of the horses that I’m using underneath Sean mentioned Ways and Means the horse was the odds on favorite uh in the Gulf Stream uh Park Oaks that was off a really long layoff though uh Ways and Means ran in the spinway last summer at Saratoga after absolutely demolishing the field in her first career start she clipped heels uh which means that you know she caught another hoof of another horse when they were running she still finished second but she had an ankle fracture so she had been off for a really long time she came back into training she trained up to the gulf dream park Oaks you can easily say that she needed that race to get back after being off for more than six months she’s another Trad Chad Brown trainee so look if he didn’t believe that she was ready for this spot he wouldn’t put her in here so I’m absolutely going to use Ways and Means underneath another horse at 5 to one and then the last horse that I’ve got in the Oaks is all the way to the outside number 14 Leslie’s rose look she’s tied for the highest last out by her speed figure in the Ashland and she did that and she had to wait behind horses on the term then she found room coming out of the turn swung a little wide and exploded for home so I another horse that you absolutely have to include and another fair price at 4 to1 all right gentlemen excellent work Mike KY Sean zerillo you can find their breakdowns picks Best Bets over in the Action Network app action network.com Mike’s gonna have a full breakdown available there ahead of Saturday and I’m sure you’ll have some stuff for Friday too Mike oh yeah Friday and Saturday both will be up excellent very good okay that’s going to do it for our Kentucky Derby betting pre VI for Shan zerillo Mike KY Brendon glashen thanks for tuning in to the Action Network podcast presented by bet MGM best of luck enjoy the ponies and we’ll join you next time