UFC Vegas 91 Draftkings Picks

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what is up everybody Welcome to DFS by
the Numbers these are my DraftKings MMA
picks for UFC Vegas 91 we got Matas
Nicola going against Alex Perez we are
right back in the Apex after a week off
after UFC 300 and yeah I’m actually
looking forward to this card I think
it’s going to be a fun card I think
we’re going to get a lot of finishes a
lot of high scores it’s it’s a fun card
from a draftking perspective because it
it has a couple fights on here like you
really are going to want to Target we’ll
talk about all of those before we do so
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favorite price picks play mid video and
then lastly we did a contest for UFC 300
it was guess how many DraftKings points
that Bo nickel would score and shout out
to Gary uh Gary guessed
108.9 the correct answer was 108. N5 so
he was very very close shout out to him
was able to to hit him up he hit me up I
was able to get him his winnings there
so shout out to you Gary incredible
guest I mean very very close uh to
getting it like right on the dot so
shout out to him and I think that’s
about it I say we get into it we’re
going to start with these fight doesn’t
go to decision lines the first one up we
have a lot of big ones the first one is
uh uh janata Denise going against Austin
Lane minus 900 for that fight doesn’t go
to decision a fight that I do think
finishes inside the distance Denise six
fights all six of them finishing not
only inside the distance but in the
first round and then even Austin Lane 16
fights all 16 of them have finished
inside the distance and I don’t think
that’s you know nothing different here I
think this fight’s going to end end
quickly um I do prefer the Denise side
9,000 I think he has first round
knockout upside
Austin Lane four losses all four of them
coming by first round knockout but you
know Austin Lane he’s 7,200 for a
heavyweight fight um you know he hits
hard he’s dangerous 100% finish rate has
some pass Denise he’s a little bit
unproven in MMA only six fights so yeah
I think there’s some pass for both guys
I’m personally on Denise but you know
Austin Lane as as a cheap play is not
the worst look in the world next we got
another fight that is heavily favored to
end inside the distance Ryan span going
against bogdon gusov this fight’s going
to be a banger I think it’s going to be
a banger and probably finishes under one
and a half rounds like it is heavily
favored to do so uh I do like the Ryan
span side here it’s just Ryan span’s one
of those guys who’s just very very
inconsistent I think skill for skill no
doubt about it Ryan svan is so much
better he’s fought so much better
competition he’s he’s well-rounded he’s
really good it’s just you know Ryan span
just just drops the ball you know he’s
dropped the ball time and time again so
it’s hard to trust them but I think
somebody’s getting served here I I
really struggle to see this fight going
five minutes honestly Ryan span when
he’s winning it’s typically in that
first round and you know gusov all he
does is winning the first round so I
think it’s a one round Banger this fight
must be targeted at these price tags
next we got another fight that I think
must be targeted is going to be uh
Petrovic going against uh leang n we got
Petrovic is sitting at
9,400 leang Na 6,800 and yeah there’s
this is a leang na fight which means
it’s probably ending inside the distance
uh would be very very shocked if it
didn’t and then also it’s probably going
to score very well also langna is 6,800
as a pump play she makes a lot of sense
she has a 100% finish rate grappling
upside she’s extremely cheap I think LNA
is a very good pump play this week and
then as far as petravic 9,400 she has
good finish upside she has good finish
upside she’s a finisher in her own right
I think she’s finished uh maybe five or
or six six wins petravic she has a
couple Knockouts couple submissions and
l n gets finished all the time so I
think somebody is getting served here
another great fight to Target and then
another great fight to Target Euros
smich Tim Means I think these guys are
going to throw down Euros smish like
Austin L we talked about never seen the
scorecards never been 15 minutes 11
fights all 11 finishing inside the
distance he has a 100% finish rate in
his wins and he’s been finished in his
losses both by submission I think
somebody’s getting served here I like
the medic side but Tim Means at 7100 he
has a path I mean if he comes out here
and grapples like that’s seems to be Med
medic’s weakness so you know I think
both guys are in play but I’m personally
on the medic side next we got court
plays we talked about them already
janata Denise 9000 I think it’s a good
setup spot here for him I mean they’re
giving him Austin Lane who has that tall
man’s defense who’s very hitable and
doesn’t have the chin to back it up um I
think he knocks him out in the first
round Austin Lane four losses all in the
first round I think nothing’s different
here Denise goes out there and gets a
quick win uh then we got Jonathan Pierce
8,600 it’s just hard to ignore the
upside Jonathan Pierce brings to the
table this is one of those guys that I
love targeting from a traffing
perspective he’s a guy that’s going to
push a pace that his opponents are not
going to be able to keep up with you
know whether it’s striking whether it’s
wrestling especially and especially here
you know Jonathan Pierce can wrestle
wrestle wrestle wrestle the takedowns
the rack up the control time the strikes
it all it all adds up and you know
Jonathan Piers honestly has one of the
highest ceilings on the card uh could he
get finished potentially and we’ll talk
about anama for sure but in a win
Jonathan Pierce scores incredibly in a
win here so I like Jonathan Pierce I
think he’s very much in play at this
price stack uh we got James yop
8,200 he’s a core Play Just due to the
fact that this guy is 8,200 on
DraftKings and he’s like a minus 400
something favorite um did go back and
watch some of his fights especially that
Contender series fight against Malik
Lewis and I was very impressed with the
on toop this is a guy that has really
good volume really good power uh was
really shocked he wasn’t able to
actually get Malik Lewis out of there um
at some point in that fight but he
dropped him a couple times he hurt him
like like at least five or six times in
that fight so yeah yab looks good the
power looks good he’s a young guy he’s
only going to be improving he’s a big
guy going to be the bigger fighter in
this matchup against Chris padillas so
yeah I think he on top at 88,200 he’s
going to be very popular yes but but for
a good reason the dude’s minus 400 Ryan
span 8,900 it’s tough to trust him it’s
tough to go heavy on him but I mean I I
think he’s the much better fighter I’m
not sold on bogdon guskov whatsoever you
know Ryan span he’s going to be better
everywhere on the feet he’s much bigger
much longer has a ton of power gusov
he’s super hitable um you Ryan span can
knock him out and if this fight hits the
mat it’s oneway traffic on the ground
Ryan span’s in a great Grappler whereas
guskov I don’t think he’s that great so
I like Ryan’s fan here again hard to
trust him he could drop the ball but I
expect a first round finish out of span
next we got our GBP plays here we got
Ivana petrovich 9,400 taking on my girl
leang Na and yeah I mean leang Na she’s
been finished six times um you know I
think Petrovic can win this fight
whether it’s knockout whether it’s sub
um I think at some point she gets on top
and probably pounds out or Subs L on the
second maybe third round but yeah 9,400
it’s expensive but it’s a n fight which
means it’s going to be fastpac high Pace
high scoring and she’s definitely in
play at 9,400 Karina Silva 8,500 we have
a lot of Fighters with a 100% finish
rate on this card Karina Silva being one
of them um 17 wins 17 of them inside the
distance which is just crazy she has
power on the feet but it’s her
submission game I think she’s finished
her last five or six wins by submission
if this fight hits the mat I think she’s
going to have a massive advantage
against lipsky whether it’s a TKO or a
sub and even on the feet like lipsky is
probably the better striker but Karina
Silva brings power to the table so I
love the finishing ability of Silva here
OS medic
99,100 um definitely in play Tim Means
he’s a guy that he’s 40 years old he’s I
think this is his 50th fight he’s taken
a ton of damage especially as of late I
think there’s a good chance that you
know osmic can definitely go out there
um and and get the knockout maybe even a
club and sub here for for osmic another
guy like I think it’s the fourth fighter
we’ve talked about with a 100% finish
rate in OS smage that cannot be ignored
I think gets a finish here um as well
and then Matas Nicola
8,700 I don’t love it to be honest um
just because I think Nicola could win
this fight in many different ways could
be a decision could be a submission
maybe maybe even a knockout he’s a lot
of power it’s just the low volume nature
of Nicola’s game kind of scares me a
little bit so if this is not a early
finish uh I’m not sure how well it’s
going to score but with that said he has
25 minutes to work with if he is able to
get that grappling going you know I
think he can you know certainly put up a
solid score maybe he can get a knockdown
or two so I think since this is a five
round fight I I don’t hate him if this
was a three round fight I probably
wouldn’t be touching him here but since
it’s five rounds um I think there’s
there are paths for him to score well um
in this fight next we got the prize
picks play of the week if you guys want
to check out prize picks use promo code
DFS BTN you’ll get a 100% deposit match
this week we’re going with Ivana
Petrovic less than 9 Minutes fight time
she’s taking on leang na and leang
has had a ton of fights it’s uh like 26
fights I’m pretty sure like 25 yeah I
think like 25 of those 26 or 24 of those
26 have finished less than N9 minutes so
no brainer here for me I think leang no
goes out there and gets the first round
finish and if not she probably gets
finished um shortly after that maybe
even in the first round to be honest so
I I like this less than nine minutes
fight time again if you guys want to
check it out use promo code DFS
BTN moving on we got uh the last dogs
Alex FR 7,500 definitely a live dog in
this Main Event just because Matas
Nicola you like when he’s losing he’s
losing by by knockout mat Nicola has
three losses all three of them come by
knockout Alex FZ not the the hardest
puncher in the world but he does hit
hard and I think a path to victory for
Alex PR would probably be that finish um
five rounds to work with as well there’s
not a ton of dogs I like on this car but
he I don’t I don’t hate perz bogdon
guskov 7,300 there’s a couple fighters
on this card where it’s like like their
their win conditions round one like Ln
will talk about but guskov if he’s
winning it’s it’s round one or bust and
more specifically it’s probably under
one half of a round because I don’t
think he has much after that and if he’s
going to win he’s going to probably
break the Slate so he’s got to be
mentioned uh David unama 7,600 another
guy with a 100% finish rate he’s going
against Jonathan Pi who I think it’s a
rough match up for David unama but you
know on the feet David unama has a lot
of power he has a sneaky submission game
and Jonathan Pierce has been finished a
lot so don’t mind David onama as a live
dog and then Ariana lipsky 7,700 she’s
been looking phenomenal lately she’s
came through as an underdog three times
in a row she definitely must be
mentioned she got a nice finish in her
last fight Karina Silva’s only been to
decision once um she’s been finished
twice so lipsky maybe gets a late finish
here definitely on play as well pump
play Liang na I mean if she wins it’s in
the first round I don’t see any other
path to Victory outside of a outside of
a first round finish here for leang na
6,800 I will be sprinkling some there
and then the Fate is going to be Katlin
so
9,200 I think she can score decent I
actually like the volume decent power
but I think this fight does go 15 and
she’s just too expensive for my liking
syy fading Katlin SOA and there you guys
have it uh thank you all so much for
watching if you guys could please leave
a like on your way out subscribe to the
channel as well check out DFS byth
numbers.com I’ll be getting out the rest
of the content on there uh Wednesday
Thursday at some point and yeah looking
forward to being back it was a nice week
off but back to work here we got this
card and then we got another
pay-per-view next week 301 so best of
luck everybody we’ll talk to you soon
see you