The UFC took a bye week that let fans calm down after what was the best combat sports event in history in UFC 300. Now, they’re back at the Apex for UFC Vegas 91 with a flyweight main event. Matheus Nicolau faces Alex Perez. A 205 barnburner comes along as Ryan Spann fights Bogdan Guskov. Ariane Lipski and Karine Silva go to war, while Austen Lane gives Jhonata Diniz a welcome to the UFC. To open the main card, Tim Means puts himself to the test vs. Uros Medic.
BetUS’s host Dave Ross and our UFC betting experts Kyle Purviance and Matty Betss will go over the latest UFC news, betting trends and the best MMA odds available to give you their UFC Fight Night picks and predictions for this weekend’s fights. So, get your info here and get down with confidence at BetUS.
In this video:
UFC Vegas 91 Picks & Predictions for April 27th 0:00
Prelim Picks 10:00
Tim Means vs Uros Medic Fight Predictions 20:27
Jonathan Pearce vs David Onama Fight Predictions 27:18
Austen Lane vs Jhonata Diniz Fight Predictions 34:55
Ariane Lipski vs Karine Silva Fight Predictions 42:48
Ryan Spann vs Bogdan Guskov Fight Predictions 50:49
Matheus Nicolau vs Alex Perez Fight Predictions 57:20
UFC Vegas 91 Questions & Answers 1:04:36
UFC Vegas 91 Best Bets for April 27th 1:07:57
#UFCVegas91 #BetUSTV #ufcpicks #UFCFightNight
Connect with our hosts and experts on X:
Dave Ross: @DRossSports
Matty Betss: @MattyBetss
Kyle Purviance: @dfsbachelor
If you liked this video, give us a thumbs-up 👍, and be sure to share it with your friends! And remember, click the bell 🔔 to be notified when we upload the latest show.
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welcome to the UFC show here on BET us
America’s favorite sports book you know
the drill by now like subscribe to the
YouTube page and if you’ve got questions
on the YouTube channel you can ask
myself Kyle provance Maddie Betts as we
get ready for UFC Vegas 91 tomorrow
night gentlemen I feel like when we go a
week away it’s like we got to catch up
on what we’ve missed it’s so excited to
have you guys back with me here today
before we look ahead to what we’ve got
tomorrow night we do have to look back
at UFC 300 my goodness we had said I
thought it was the greatest card that
Combat Sports had ever seen and not only
do I think it lived up to the hype I
think it past the hype Maddie you were
in attendance right here in Las Vegas at
T-Mobile Arena I got to get your
thoughts on what that energy was like
inside the building for UFC
300 yeah bro was insane this is my so
this is my first time sitting in a
lounge I was like higher up but it was
really it was really cool experience
because like I feel like if you’re not
going to be like at really good seats
like really low down or close to the you
know close to the fights then it’s
better to just get a lounge you get a
cocktail waitress and food and you get
to chill I enjoyed it it was a good time
the energy was insane except the only
thing that was mindboggling to me is the
first fight or two the like the entire
place was not that like like I thought
like for the figgy fight everyone would
be in their seats you know but people
are just so used to the prelims not
everyone being there I thought for that
figgy fight the whole place to be packed
out but like right before that fight
started it was like half the place was
empty it was really weird but then all
of a sudden it was like the place was
full and sold out so but it was it was a
really cool experience great energy
moano came through for me which was my
big bet and he’s my podcast partner so
we can’t the star’s too bright look it
the St look at this guy look at this guy
can’t look at him oh bro I’ll tell you
one thing if if he would have got
finished in that first round I would
have I would have been extremely
depressed my whole weekend would have
been ruined was close to happen yeah for
those who don’t remember Jaylen Turner
thought he had a walk-off knockout and
actually just stepped away from money
moano and that gets R out time to get
composed get right to his feet and he
goes right for a takedown after that but
God what we’re what we’re to here is
something you talked about before the
show I mean our guy Maddie Betts and we
we knew Maddie was a star but now when
money muyano shouts you out specifically
in the post fight I mean how big is mdy
bets yeah way big I even took credit for
it like yeah I work with a guy so it’s
basically like I’m getting shouted out
here and I thought heyadoo nailed it too
like he he knows the fan base right as a
very smart postf fight interview right I
mean it was unbelievably awesome I loved
it I love the whole thing it was a and I
went back and looked right because you
know our records fluctuate we give lots
of long shots and plus money we gave out
13 unique winning bets between the three
of us for UFC 300 it was a blast of a
card I do owe a couple shots to is it
okay if I just do it all at once in a
double shot you’re gonna do the Matty
bets you’re just going to
get he did like three or four I don’t
have the fortitude that Matty Betts has
I’m not like start defensive tackle in
the CFL and you know what I mean like
that’s not I’m old and pass my Prime I
can barely do my Dave Ross push-ups
every day but here we go I’m gonna take
my double shot here doing mine doing
mine on the next show yeah yeah so we
got this full oh my God and I’m chasing
it down I’m chasing it down with a
twisted
T and then we’re gonna get this and then
I had one more thought because one more
interesting thing happened what was kind
of weird while we were off and I wanted
to get your guys’ take on all right so
as Kyle does oh my goodness that’s a man
shot right there there it is that’s the
shot bets that we do each and every
Crown Apple by the way it’s Crown apples
the hardest stuff in the world but but
still it us Sting the nostrils just a
little bit uh let’s do some let’s do
some housekeeping how we fared uh really
good I and Maddie I know you had some
plays that you didn’t have in the
official card that hit for you as well
at UFC 300 but overall uh mdy how was
your betting experience at UFC
300 I mean M of saved my weekend you
know like I had way too much exposure on
him um and he saved my weekend I had the
10K bet at cira um it was it was plus
195 so it was a nice it was that’s nice
I put like 10K in change on it so it
came out to like 30 on the total payout
um but I got crushed on the main card
like I lost I had the over one and a
half in the main event I had Jamal Hill
money line so both those got taken out
with one left hook yep and then uh I for
whatever reason I had Justin gayi you
know against my better judgment I even
live bet him after the first round
because he was plus money so that was so
stupid but and then dude the
Ala I had a crazy I had a crazy parlay I
thought he won that fight honestly so
did I Kyle I really did and I I know
people say oh it’s just because you
picked it and everything but I rewatch
it I’m like and the one judge what the
hell there was one judge just we the
hell off I can’t remember but it pissed
me off a little bit but Maddie I don’t
know were you like me so I was on Jamal
Hill too and as soon as they got in to
the Octagon I go I made a horrible
mistake here like this isn’t this looks
like the fat kid that used to talk crap
to me in class of sixth grade and I’d
have to punch him out all the time
that’s what it looks like here like like
Alex paja it shows how amazing that
knockout was by osna when he was about
to be knocked out again but Alex paa I
he it would not Shock me if he became
the heavyweight champ I swear it
wouldn’t he seems like an absolute
fighting machine I’m never picking
against him again never never again yeah
I still think Tom ASP will be really
tough for him but I agree with you it’s
hard to bet against him at this point
the olivea fight so I don’t know if you
guys saw my ticket on on Twitter but I
had a 1K to win
132k and I had moano round two alivea
round two so moano wins in round two and
that was 10 to one the second leg was
nine to one alivea round two and that
that first round I was [ __ ] myself
because Oliva had that that Guillotine
was a guillotine right and I was like
please get the round two so then the
fight gets to round two and I’m live I
have five minutes to get a finish he
just I I wanted that fight to stay on
the feet longer in that second round and
just couldn’t get it
done with you guys I thought Oliver won
the fight too Kyle and and I get it
people are say cuki and maybe he
reversed round one I mean to matti’s
point he’s almost getting finished there
I don’t know how you how you give that
round to Ala or to give that round to
cukin and then round three he ends up in
another like a bulldog choke or whatever
that that Kamura is at the end I mean I
I thought when we’re talking about
finishing and and damage I mean to me
that was Charles two to one but that’s
neither here nor there uh we lose that
decision I I still think that’s a good
bet MD I talk about it all the time
sometimes uh you make good bets that
don’t cash but boy what a great call on
wano getting that second round win
getting that that shout out to you and
look I I love I love the perara side I
really did I just didn’t see it with
Jamal and you know even the ring walk I
went oh I feel like I’m so on the right
side here that’s what I was terrified as
soon as I saw Jamal Hill’s face I said
oh my God oh my God I’ve got this all
wrong I don’t know why but it just I had
the feeling I told my brother like I got
this one wrong it’s and I had a little
parlay alive so I did hedge a little to
paja but not enough that it was [ __ ]
just [ __ ] sometimes you just see it and
you know it you know and that’s what
happens Bruno chiming in he’s with us
alera was really close to get a finish
this in round one and three uh judges
it’s hard to know what they’re
evaluating that’s hard for us and we
talk about it all the time on the show
look if you think a fight’s gonna go to
the cards like Maddie didn’t and and
that was smart right you’re thinking
round two stoppage it takes it takes
that out of it if you really think a
fight’s not gonna hit the cards you
think a fight’s gonna hit the cards be
careful of laying favorites too because
uh you just don’t know what they’re
looking at if this thing uh goes the
distance so again uh UFC 300 in the
books uh like I said I got a small lead
right now in the money Department pretty
good day for yours truly but I know that
the the eventual goal is Matty’s going
to surpass me Kyle’s going to surpass me
and we’re just going to keep rolling and
try to get up and plus money this is not
about uh this like one one size we’re
trying to help out the whole team here
so steady wins the race I know Maddy’s
got some long shots coming up it starts
in the prelims here at UFC Vegas 91 and
you’ve got Iana Petrovic here against
wna and I think you’re going to be
looking here leang na rather and you’re
gonna go with a sub price Maddie on the
first card first fight of the card this
week tell me why you like Petrovic here
via sub and I’ve I’ve seen obviously Nas
struggled on the ground before even
though she does like to shoot for
takedowns yeah this this is my favorite
play on the entire card um I just think
n is so on the feet she’s just so she’s
too aggressive um and on my podcast
earlier this week you know uh hold on
that’s Gilbert was tell oh hold on I
actually have that for another fight
coming up okay but anyways you like the
Petrovic side see when you’re a
superstar now so many stars are talking
to me I just can’t organize all Uncle D
to many thoughts in my head right now
but anyways I just think that Ivana I
think that she’ll be able to get this
fight to the ground in an exchange or if
not do shoot a Tak down and I think
think she can get the back in this fight
um I think this number is extremely
mispriced it reminds me you know it’s
just completely night and day from this
type of fight but it reminds me at USC
300 in the b nickel fight when that b
nickel by submission was originally
minus 110 and the reason it reminds me
of that is because Bo nickel was coming
off a knockout win and uh in this
scenario uh Lon n all of her losses in
the UFC have in Ko T KO right which is
weird right and that’s why we’re getting
a great number on this and that’s why
it’s so mispriced um and I think Ivana
like she has that rear naked choke she’s
got really good submission ability um
and I think she’s gonna be able to
dominate on the ground here and find a
choke of some sort so I really love this
number at plus 175 and KY to to Matty’s
Point n’s been submitted in Bellator
right so this is sometimes people forget
about some that his I love Matty’s play
here it’s not red button for me yet but
it’s something I’m really considering
adding to the card tomorrow because I
think he’s found some really good value
for a really big favorite yeah I I
actually like it a ton I think I’m gonna
red button it I’m gonna add it let’s add
the Ian by sub but it is where so you
know this is and lot of my friends who
like to watch UFC they’ll be like oh
she’s 0 and3 in the UFC never been
submitted she’s been knocked out three
straight fights in the UFC which you
don’t see in women’s MMA very often
right you’ll see a knockout here there
but to lose and none of them in the
third round second round KO loss first
round KO loss which you don’t see in
women’s MMA a lot and second round K
lost to JJ Aldrich in August like wait
JJ Aldrich knocked out somebody okay
here we are and it’s leang na uh but
you’re right when you dig further in and
you you know that’s why it’s really good
to get into those tapology get the UFC
Fight Pass if you’re if you’re watching
tape it really helps you research this
St because you know look we we cover
this every week and we covered that
fight in August I forgot she got knocked
out in August I had to Reb oh yeah I
remember this card now you know it
finally hits you but Ian by Subs a great
play at plus money leang na might be the
worst female fighter in the entire
company I mean I’m not kidding like
after this loss she’s probably gone
right well that’s what my question was
why is she still in the promotion after
going back and watching some of these
fights and some of the results all right
screw it red button it for me gonna go
with pic as well we’re rolling with
Matty bets uh via the sub price of that
when we’re in like that when we’re a
united front we were just talking about
war before the show and when we’re a
united front then you know I I salute
that so cheers to that I love that to
beat United were we were United on uh
Diego lope Diego Lopez and inside the
distance and you know I heard people
telling me that Diego Lopez is overrated
and I’m like are you kidding me this
kid’s a star dude he’s an absolute stud
who could do it all I love Diego Lopez
Love by the way very quickly to that end
and mat were there so you probably
witnessed it live they’re talking about
holding his purse because he he’s got a
hearing because he went over the ring
apron afterward and I know it’s like
everybody’s got the hi maged off Conor
McGregor we don’t want melee so we get
all that but if you just hop over and
talk to the announcers are better not
happen that better not we doing here
unbeliev ridiculous yeah it’s
ridic now Arman cian they’re holding
holding his too he deserved it
yeah right for the fight with not yeah
suin was an [ __ ] Diego Lopez was not
an [ __ ] he was and why so and and we
do this a lot right sorry to rant and
filibuster Dave I apologize but we do
this [ __ ] a lot and especially in this
country we wonder why it takes us 12
years to build a bridge we wonder why it
why we’re putting innocent people it’s
because we’ll make a rule and we can’t
use any common sense like it’s just
outside the only people that are allowed
to use common sense apparently are the
Supreme Court which we don’t even vote
for they’re appointed for life so these
fossils will have this job till they’re
s years old and can’t even you remember
their own damn name where the hell has
the common sense gone where has it gone
where you can’t be subjective and say
look one guy was being an [ __ ] trying
to hurt a fan the other guy’s talking to
the announcer yours is withheld yours is
not I I mean this should can be let me
just be the sports Zar we need one
sports Zar that oversees everything with
a little bit of damn common sense and
hopefully a whis some whiskey and a
cigar because it’s ridiculous it is not
one siiz fits-all I I think that’s
exactly the right Point here I mean you
got to have it’s as easy as Kyle just
laid it out let’s just hope that this is
not a deter for a young fighter like
Diego Lopez who I’m sure could use the
money here on his Ascent in the UFC
talked a lot about fighter pay here do
not withdraw and hold this kid’s purse
don’t do it it was a dyamic performance
against sadique yussef we were all on
the right side of that one and we can’t
wait to see the kid get back in there
but do not take away his fighter pay for
that cian might have more things to
answer for totally fair you want to have
those conversations in front of a
governing body that’s fine but come on
people let’s use some common sense like
Kyle was alluding to uh when we get back
into the prelims you’ve got another play
that you found some some value here with
Kyle Machado against Dantel Maize and
Maddie again big favorite here in
Machado but again you figured out a way
to take a big fave and find some value
in you think this one’s going to go very
quickly he’s it’s close to a pick home
isn’t it yeah well when you when you
when you shorten it the way you did for
a first round
KL wa wait that’s
that’s K you’re okay K you’ve got by
submission my bad you’re going with with
a long shot here for Kyo so sub pick
fight but yeah but you’re getting eight
eight to one yeah yeah yeah yeah bro so
k
I think he has more ways to win this
fight I originally had his money line
but when I look at how many units I’m
down on the show going for it we’re
growing the submission here plus 800 I
think when you look at a guy uh like
Dantel Maye seral Gan submitted him
right like and Kyo nento submitted
righto surreal Gan like eight to one I
think this number is just big because
it’s like heavyweights you know like Kyo
has what’s he have here he has two
submission wins in MMA um he had an
armbar just recently back in
2022 and dant May we’ve seen him be
we’ve seen him submitted quite a few
times now so I’m just playing the number
here I’m gonna get eight to one odds on
it this fight hits the ground I think
it’s it’s live and I just just love the
value you know and again I like the
Machado side here I like what Matty’s
doing to take that educated guess at 8
to1 if the fight hits the ground Dantel
Ma just doesn’t work enough for me Kyle
to to back him in any way shape or form
he freaks me out I don’t know what the
hell to do with dant he’s one of the few
guys who figured out a way to knock out
Andre olowski right which makes no sense
because Andre rovski even at 45 my my
buddy Eric Gets uh the beef and broccoli
or the cheddar and broccoli soup with
him at the Panera Bread in Michigan all
the time so I I I get a lot of updates
on Andre rovski I’ve got to talk to him
a couple times like all the f pretty
cool really cool guy but he’s one of
those guys he’s a decision monster right
he knows I mean this guy’s been around
forever he’s hard to knock out well don
ta May of all the guys Dantel May knocks
him out Dantel May has also lost twice
to Rodrigo and Nimo which makes no sense
right he got submitted by nsho which we
talked about and then lost a decision to
nsho the only reason I’m not jumping all
over Kyo is wait you lost to Mick Parkin
by decision I don’t love that uh that
one’s tough for me there’s some
low-level heavyweights these aren’t even
the two worst heavy weights on the card
we’re going to get to the worst
heavyweight maybe of all time one of the
worst ones of all time uh later in this
card I mean real bad real real real real
bad like like real bad but uh so it’s B
you better be betting against
him I better see a live bet coming
because I don’t see any first round
knockout is minus 120 we’re I mean I
can’t I just can’t physically stomach
that even though I know he’s going to
knock him out we’ll get to that but yeah
I I mean like Kyle but dant May freaks
me out because I never if dant May he’s
the scariest dude who’s a crappy fighter
of the like he looks scary when he com
oh yeah oh my God I would [ __ ] my pants
if Dante May came at me in a bar right
like I’m doing the over under like I’m
gonna get on my knees you push him over
we’re gonna do something like that you
know I’m gonna try to do a sharpshooter
and you know we’re gonna WWE this thing
but uh uh yeah the Kyle by sub at 8 to1
it does make a lot of sense and and Don
has been known to have a low fight IQ
which is why you’d look for the sub
here’s he’s a guy that can snatch defeat
from the jaws of Victory as they say and
and he’s one of those guys so 8 to1
you’re getting a good number yeah we’re
GNA talk about that Austin uh we’re g
about that Austin Lane fight a little
bit later that’s what I was referring to
earlier with Maddie when I saw his
number just shorten down a big favorite
but let’s get to the main card and Kyle
this is where we start with you in the
first fight of the main card look Tim
Means is a fan favorite and again that’s
uh we’re going to get to Denise fight
here in a sec but Kyle you do like the
Dirty Bird here Tim me
uh against Euros medic and you think
that he might be live means to pull off
the upset yeah I I actually love Tim
Means here and it’s not necessarily that
I love Tim Means the I mean I do love
Tim Means the fighter but yeah on what
planet is Euros medic a minus 300
favorite like you have got to be kidding
me here what has he done that M what is
he good at that makes you think he’s a
three to one favorite so let’s just look
recently he just got submitted by aabi
right back in November and I think think
we probably covered that um he knocked
out seberger in the third in the third
round but if you remember seberger had
him on skates I just went and rewatch
that if you’re put on skates by Anthony
seberger sorry you’re you’re you’re on
like my back semi the Jedi baby yeah
you’re on my back burner uh the Morales
fight he was on skates in that one you
remember getting submitted in the first
round by Jaylen Turner Jaylen Turner I
mean he’s a black belt we know that but
Jaylen Turner not necessarily known for
going out and subbing guys in the first
round here so for me Euros his Chin’s
going to be up he’s going to be there to
be hit the dirty bird is going to be
tough and look the dirty Bird’s not the
I think he’s the cleaner striker of the
two quite frankly I think if this stays
on the feet Tim Means has the advantage
I don’t think Tim Means is just going to
fold over and be put away I got to
remember the last time he was well he
was submitted by Alex morono who is if
Alex morono fought Euros medic I’m
taking Alex morono minus 200 all day
long like he in my view he’s just much
much better than Euros medic
uh Max Griffin Okay Kevin Holland the
submission we know Kevin Holland has
good ground game but for me Tim Means
just he’s and he just knocked out Andre
falo who’s you know he’s he’s a knockout
or be knocked out kind of guy but he’s a
tough dude and he just knocked him out
for me the number was wrong if this was
more like minus 150 to medic I’d
probably be more on the medic side I do
think he’s the rightful favorite but at
plus 250 I’m going to take the double
chance here I’ll take either by knockout
cuz I do think the Knockouts alive I was
close to just taking the knockout out or
I think he will land the more effective
punches I think he’s good enough on the
ground to resist some of the wrestling
of medic I think means has a real good
chance here to me it’s about principal
give me the price at plus 250 I I love
the double chance here that you’re going
with uh with means to pull the upset MD
it’s not an official play for me but I
lean towards that over at minus a150 in
a parlay piece here because I’m picking
up what Kyle’s putting down I don’t
think this is a five minute fight right
not what the G like Tim Means unless
medis could just get him down to the
ground and submit him but I don’t see
that happen in you don’t have an
official play in this fight but how do
you see it playing out if I had to
choose a money line I’m going Tim Means
honestly I’m thinking about red button
in it but at the same time I like like
I’ve been winning so much money Tak and
Tim Means the L lose by submission I’m
like looking at I’m looking at medic’s
tapology like please show me something
here and like before the UFC he has two
submissions because Tim mean just leaves
his neck out bro he gets submitted by
every he does you know and I think it’s
8 to one on the medic submission but I
just don’t know if he you know I really
want to play it I really do I
really Justin chimes in that Med bad on
the ground uh Tim Means wins by sub I
lose the double chance somehow I call
this massive Underdog it’s I should be
smart and then Tim Means by sub’s got to
be like something crazy like 15 to
20 and of course I lose it there but oh
money line probably the best way at plus
225 plus 230 is pro when I actually
looked at this the money line was plus
260 so money is coming in on Tim Means
yeah and I do like over medage has two
subs in Alaska
FC go that doesn’t count
that’s they were both triangle chokes
like that’s like how do you feel about
that because I would have liked to see
if if he even had one or two submissions
the same way that Tim Means is which is
by yes Guillotine and dar Guillotine and
dar is how he always gets submitted he
got rear naked chook once against Alex
Olivera but Matt Brown guillotined him
um Daniel Rodriguez standing guillotined
him which is oh yes you remember that
fight do you remember when he just Danel
Rodriguez wasn’t that the fight after
Rodriguez had landed like 280
significant strikes the fight before and
then he just came out and choked and so
you’re thinking volume volume Rodriguez
by decision and then this [ __ ] just
leaves his neck right there and
Rodriguez chokes him out standing up
which is the weirdest way to lose like
that’s big brothering someone if I’ve
ever seen Big Brother somebody right
standing choke is like yeah get the hell
out of here get the hell out honestly
let me I have to do it because I’m gonna
regret it if I don’t let me I’m red
button medic by submission I know it’s
crazy but we’re doing it doing it I’m
gonna pray as a guillotine in his
Arsenal but okay I just Tim Means this
is how he always loses it’s crazy I have
so what kind of shot is this is is like
an eight to four yeah is it a four to
two because I like Tim like don’t get it
twisted I like Tim Means money line I
would take Tim Means on the money line
and I would honestly sprinkle a quarter
unit on him to lose by submission
too that is a very interesting handicap
there so red button play for Maddie is
gonna be Med via sub and what number are
we getting you at for that sub and I
know that Kyle you got the double chance
here for means by KO or decision at plus
250 so that’s Kyle’s two plays sub is
seven to one wow so matd gets seven to
one M be a sub and then the other side
is Kyle double chance KO and decision at
plus 2 seven so so if Tim Means wins
Maddie takes seven shots if medic no I
he takes three and a half shots and if
he Subs him I take seven shots and the
show’s over in like 35 seconds you just
BL me out you just me no I can do it I
think I could do it I’m three in right
now bro just look at Tim Means typology
I know know only lost twice by knockout
seven times by submission six by
decision okay now I’ve got so much more
intrigu watching that fight than I
already had now with this that’s the
point of the show right like this card
is not a great card not a single
fighter card
though it wouldn’t make the UF not one
fighter on here it would have been on
UFC 300 right not a single one not one
fighter absolutely we’re making it fun
to watch people watching the show are
going to tune in tomorrow to see if
mattye has to take seven shots next week
which it’s unofficial bet but I’m still
gonna talk unofficial unofficial by the
way very unofficial the next fight on
the card and I’m a little disappointed
that none of us have a pick on it it’s
it’s I think it’s it could be fight of
the night with David an against Jonathan
Fierce right like this this has just got
Banger potential I’m a big David onama
fan and I really want to pull the
trigger uh at plus money here but I
couldn’t do it because I that’s the
respect I have on the pier side as well
Kyle let me start with you here because
look at that over two and a half it is
is Juiced uh plus money here plus a
doll2 Juiced to the under at minus a150
which tells you that we don’t expect
this one potentially to hit the cards
that’s where I look at it man this thing
seems like it’s just got Banger Banger
Banger from both sides uh big time
potential for somebody to get somebody
else out of there yeah I mean more
interested in this fight than the main
event you hit the nail right on the head
um I’ve full disclosure I’ve lost plenty
of money betting against Jonathan Pierce
and most of it was making the big
mistake or where you just hate someone
so much like this guy trying to call
himself JSP like really pissed me off
early on right I’m not gonna lie I love
George St Pierre I love like he every
fight he was a part of was you know a
party at my house I loved GSP and then I
had this little scrawny weirdo who’s not
great uh calling himself so so I’ve lost
money Los and Jonathan Pierce is a guy
who’s there to be hit like David onama
could absolutely knock him out but
Jonathan Pierce is also a scrapper can
take a shot has excellent is excellent
wrestling he will chain wrestle if he
has to he’s his transitions are
phenomenal David onama has found a way
to win and lose he’s one of those guys
you know like some guys are like okay
this guy gets submitted this guy gets
knocked out this guy is a decision
machine David onama does it all just his
last five fights a win by knockout a
loss by decision a win by submission a
win by knockout a loss by like he just
he’s just all over the place extremely
talented but not great in any way if I
had the proverbial gun to my head I lean
Jonathan Pierce probably by decision he
probably out wrestles him feels a little
power early on doesn’t want to get hit
anymore takes a fight to the ground and
grinds him out for three rounds and
Jonathan Pierce has the advantage there
but I just didn’t know what to make of
this one it’s the one I want to watch
the most so I’m kind of glad I don’t
have any action on it because I just get
to enjoy it stressfree you know I can
leave the front door open and smoke a
cigarette outside and watch watch this
way that my my ex-girlfriend never let
me do that so now I do it all the time
all the time the Smoke’s coming in and
I’m like yeah get you know get out just
like God it’s time to break up but
nonetheless uh I’m going to be that’s
how I’ll be watching this fight smoking
outside thinking about being on on
Maddie and Moo’s podcast causing some
trouble I’ve been thinking about it like
well I got to get myself on there now
obviously this my dude now ronal Mell is
my dude now uh but uh I love the whole I
me and Dave bet on him on the show you
didn’t back him so Dave allow well I
backed him I backed him on at the sports
book because I did bet him before like
like full disclosure full disclosure
we’re having a good time over here and I
had a girl coming to visit me from
Hawaii so i’ cleaned my house
beautifully I had a party I had food I
had all this stuff going on and I was I
was maybe two sheets to the win by the
time that fight started I said this is
my boy’s boy I’m betting him so I I
probably put more than normal on it and
so I did win and there’s a lot of like I
believe me when I say I can love Rado
moano okay let just put it that way we
had a great night it paid for the whole
part moano paid for the party and then
some so just yeah we were all we all
were rooting for for mty’s boy for for
money mo Conor to get it done we all
invested in it as well but what I love
about the story Kyle just told as matd
you’re a bachelor as well
correct as three Bachelors on the set
Kyle pointed out that when he had
company coming over he cleaned the place
that was the pat on the back that’s what
we do as Bor right I really clean the
place well mom like that’s what I tell
myself to my son hates it too because
because that’s when I start bitching at
him because you know I have adult kids
now that live in the home and I’m like
youing kids are messy who leaves their
tennis shoes on the bathroom floor
before a shower I’ve never seen it four
pairs of shoes on the bathroom floor
that’s how he knows oh there’s a girl
coming over right and I’m like well yeah
that’s the only reason I do this [ __ ]
like what are you talking about like why
else would I do it only exactly we only
clean when we have company people that’s
just the way it is women out there sorry
that’s that’s the life of the bachelor
uh this fight with the with Anan Pierce
Maddie again no official play for Kyle
and I you don’t
have I want to ask I want to ask Bruno
or whomever what is Tim double I’m sorry
Jonathan Pierce double
Chance by submission or decision if
that’s plus money sign me up for it for
you want the double chance for for
Jonathan for JSP for Kyle for
jspc how dare he just how dare he how
dare he do that and by the way someone’s
asking what kind of cigarettes I smoke
and they said Newports first of all
Newports are for crackheads okay
Newports are what crackheads smoke
I’m a classy guy I smoke camel blue
shorts they used to be called camel
lights but you can’t do that anymore and
I’m actively trying to quit you should
not smoke cigarettes it’s a terrible
habit I’ve been doing it for too long
and I need to quit otherwise like if I
go hang out in Vegas I’m going to be the
weak guy you know like we’re in a bar
fight and I gas out after a minute and a
half you know so I gotta quit smoking
man I’m in on that plus I’m in on is it
plus 110 is that what it is yeah plus
double chance oh sign me up for that
I know you like that play there I do I
do I’m not locking it I I just I have to
stay away from Jonathan Pierce I’ve lost
too much money going again and I can’t
bet on him I can’t I can’t do it though
I he was the Joe Anderson breedo lost I
don’t take nothing from him in that
fight jerson burito he was winning I had
jerson burrito by Sub in that fight and
I thought it was dead in the water you
know like I just think Pierce is is high
level I really do um and I think he’s
just going to be relentless with the
wrestling and the pressure and I think
he probably wins on the scorecards but I
think I like the double chance in case
he’s able to find like a late submission
um but like the Christian Rodriguez win
has a aged really well yep um you know
Darren Elkins he beat by decision the
Bryce Mitchell fight got cancelled the
Breo fight again I think he was having
good success in that fight until he got
some that till he gave up that ninja
choke um but I just I like I like I like
this at Plus money for sure well I’m
glad that we’re having this conversation
because again no play for me I was
leaning towards the onama side both you
guys have kind of talk me off of that
side here I would now lean towards that
over at plus money at two and a half
because I’m I’m picking up what both you
guys are putting down the wrestling of
Pierce if if anama can survive in the
ground and that’s why Matty’s gonna do
the double chance officially locking
that in at plus money if onama can
survive in the ground that would lead
itself to a JSP decision Victory so at
Plus money Matty Betts has red button
played this and he’s going to go with
Pierce double chance via sub or via
decision and that is the official pick
for Matty Betts on the and I I do I
think this has got fight of the night
potentially written all over it I think
it could be a three round war that turn
this into the UFC 300 show like look at
all the excitement how the hell does
this happen over matus Nicolas what do
Perez this is what we do baby I love it
this is what we do okay this next fight
I don’t know how excited we we are
because when you look at Austin Lane and
I know Kyle has got a um some bones to
pick here with that Austin Lane against
Jonathan Denise and Kyle you’ve I think
you’re on record you think Austin Lane
is the worst heavyweight in the
promotion right now yeah he he might be
and he has been for a long time so so
Austin Lane is one of these guys he’s uh
him and Greg Hardy if you remember the
Greg Hardy FCO right these are these NFL
the these are these pro football players
who thought they could come be Fighters
and hey they got all the Athletics they
got the size Greg Hardy was a particular
special piece of [ __ ] you know he liked
to like beat women and throw them on
guns and stuff just just read read the
police report oh yeah read the police
report I I don’t say that Loosely like
I’m just calling someone a POS but he
really is like the walking embodiment of
everything I despise in um any human
being especially when you’re a big
strong person and you use that to bully
and weak and a pregnant girl by the way
throwing her on a better gun so anti-
Greg Hardy and Austin Lane’s not that
guy so don’t let me say guy but in terms
of fighting and Greg Hardy you know got
a couple explosive wins and it was
drawing ratings and that was sort of the
Austin Lane Lane that was his Lane you
know the double double word but let’s
talk I
mean you saw him fight the tofa boys
right I mean and we’ve seen the
limitations of the top this guy is a if
now these are big guys it’s the game
punching and kicking if he catches
someone with the hardest punch he’s got
he’s probably knocking him out but what
really what I wanted was Denise by KO
this kid actually has a lot of skill
tons more skill but the the differential
of skill on this card this is the one
where Denise is so much better and and
not not even a top 25 heavyweight
probably in the in the company right now
he’s making his debut but he’s so much
better in every facet of the game this
should be done early the problem for me
is when I’m taking a round one knockout
I want like five or six to one or or
something minus 120 minus 200 to get The
Knockout is like no thank you I just
can’t I’ve made this mistake before I
took the bow nickel the one time he got
The Knockout when Maddie took the
knockout and I took the sub at minus 450
I remember that day I remember how I
felt the next day I’m not doing it again
but this should be Denise very if you’re
playing DFS fantasy and you’re looking
for a captain spot first round knockout
bonus points Denise is your guy Austin
Lane has nothing to offer this guy other
than size and athleticism but no skill
whatsoever to quote the who Kyle Won’t
Get Fooled Again he’s not gonna get
fooled on this one with Denise uh but
with no play officially for Kyle but
Maddie you do have an official play and
you’re gonna take that shot look we’ve
seen Denise come up Contender series and
he looks looks the part Austin Wayan as
Kyle has has laid out has not looked the
part uh in his UFC career you do think
Denise is even though it’s a step up in
competition for him in the UFC you think
he’s ready for this moment and get it
done in five
minutes yeah I mean Austin Lane is
terrible man Justin TAA knocked him out
in the first what minute and a half yeah
and I believe and Greg Hardy knocked him
out I mean I know it’s minus 120 but
anytime he’s faced anyone half decent in
Striking he’s been knocked out in the
first round Greg Hardy Frank
Vernon Lewis Justin tafa so I just have
to to to take it here I have to pay the
minus 120 it is what it is um I actually
don’t even know what the round two
number is you know I think the round two
could only make sense if like Austin
Lane comes out and just tries to like
get control time up against the fence
and maybe shoot takedowns or something
but I’m gonna trust that he gets it done
in round one um so I’m gonna pay the
minus 120 all right so that’s the
official play here h g to go with Denise
round one to lock that one in for Maddie
at minus do2 it is interesting because
again I do wonder if there’s a way that
waye could survive the five minutes I’m
curious what that round two number looks
like but I’m with you guys it’s no
official play for me but it does feel
like oneway traffic I think it Denise
will be part of my parlay stuffer that’s
for sure uh certainly on this card I do
look at him and say if I don’t want to
get cute with the round or the
prop very hard for me to see waye
outside of a a big punch that we don’t
see coming what do you got Denise so
just check this out so Denise round one
if you’re just
atv.com jooin of course get over there
200% crypto bonus all that nonsense okay
but round one den minus 145 by any
method round two plus
550 so we’re talking $7 here fellas um
interesting I kind of want to split my
units up after
I know I know
kind that kind of scream because so so
look there’s L hear me out though he’s
never had a
round he’s never had a round two win
here’s his tapology round one win round
one win round one win round one win
round one win round one win round one
win round three win those are his last
10 fights well see that’s that’s my
concern too the cardio we don’t truly
know it with Denise right but but
doesn’t Austin Lane know first of all
that everyone’s counting on him like you
you think that Austin Lane imagine if
you were video game or someone was
betting you right if it was if it was
Dave Ross versus Joe Schmo right and all
of a sudden they got Joe Schmo a minus
300 favorite and you’re like what what
is going on here yeah you’re you think
you’re not looking up what your odds are
of course you are right oh I’m not me
against joeo I’m I’m taking those odds
me too I’m taking Dave r Ross is a is a
hero he’s a Marine he’s going to Stomp
the [ __ ] out of this guy but but you
think Austin Lane doesn’t know he’s
minus 120 to get knocked out in the
first round you think Austin Lane’s not
trying to drag this guy who’s making his
debut out a little longer round two plus
550 uh I’m can can I live bet a half
unit on that I want a live bet half unit
Denise round two any method plus 550 you
can find that up at
us love it any any method round two so
if waye can survive five minutes get to
that second round look for a finish any
way shape or form Kyle’s gonna play that
at plus 550 to lock that in meanwhile
Justin chimes in and appreciate the uh
the message here he likes Denise fight
and uh span Ryan Superman span we’ll get
to that here in the co-main under in
that span fight so we’ll get to that
here as a two-way parlay Justin how
about Ryan Hong telling me I told him
how long I’ve been smoking and how much
I smoke and he’s telling me that in my
lifetime which thanks for being being a
de remember that Debbie Downer segment
on Saturday Night Live great great bit
great bit well Ryan H you’re my Debbie
Downer today that’s
147,50 lifetime cigarettes thanks
[ __ ] I’m just kidding Ry on thanks
for watching but thank you for making me
feel like I’m on the precipice of death
so that’s fantastic I feel you’re gonna
hang in great Skip by the way Debbie
Downer great sound effects and a lot of
the people that did those those shows
back in then could never stay in
character for that skit it’s
all yes it is so that is the official
place here Denise uh for Maddie round
one KO minus our20 Kyle with the red
buttons going to go uh any method of
victory in that second round to get it
done at plus 550 all right three more
fights to get to I gotta be honest oh my
God we’re dragging this out I know I
love it but I’m excited to see the queen
of violence against karini killer uh
Silva here in this matchup here because
lipsky’s been somebody that’s been very
profitable for your truly here and she’s
kind of resurrected herself in the UFC
after some struggles there look we get
Silva she feels like you know first
round sub first round sub first round
sub that’s just kind of what she does
right so we got the Battle of
Brazil I’ve gotta play on this fight and
sometimes gentlemen I’ll just give that
out right now I think when you’ve got
these finishers which Silva clearly is
and lipsky’s been able to do that too
recently as well I think it could lead
to a stalemate and maybe a respect level
there that look you got to defend
takedowns with Silva we get that and
she’s going to be looking to to figure
out ways to submit you we understand
that but I think lipsky’s experience
should be enough to stalemate this thing
I’m gonna play the over two and a half I
know it’s risky with these finishers
here but I think we might get to
grappling positions and exchanges on the
ground and it’s just kind of a stalemate
so I’m going to play the over two and a
half at plus money here plus a do25 uh
Kyle let me go right back to you for
this one because I think you’re kind of
with me in this and that you think this
one might hit the cards do you think the
queen of violence is live here yeah I
really do and I hate that they I hate
when they do the name change like you’re
Ariana lipsky okay you’re not Ariana de
la Silva or D Silva no you’re not you’re
not you’re not you can’t you can’t get
married uh but for me look Ariana lipsky
is outside of and the the fight you’re
talking about is when Priscilla
caera as we all like to call her in
business catch a beating right cuz she
will take a beating some of the gr most
grotesque the mo like the top five most
grotesque like views of women MMA are
four of them are catch a beating and
then the other one of course is Yan and
J Chuck’s forehead against way I mean we
yeah she looked like like Warf from star
from Star Trek right like it was real
bad but Ariana ol lipsky here really
well-rounded I think she’s the better I
know she’s the better Striker I think
she’s she’s sound on the ground we’re
talking about a who has been in there
with Valentina shevchenko okay like she
is not this is not I believe is it
better not have been her sister I’m
pretty sure it was Valentina she was in
with you know I watch a lot of tape on
Wednesdays and Thursdays to get ready
for this so then things start to but I
think it was Valentina she was in in
there with back in 2020 2021 something
like that but she’s shown the volume 101
significant strikes in a decision win
over JJ Aldrich uh about a year ago last
March uh 66 a takedown a minute 47
control over got and then her most
recent win she got the submission
Victory so she’s four of her last
five uh before that losses against Chef
chenko knocked out I think she’s a
better Striker she’s certainly good
enough on the ground Karina Silva has
never ever faced anyone with this sort
of I mean marose Souza and batell lipsky
would be a minus 150 favorite over all
of them and if you look at Ariana lipsky
she’s been a huge Underdog in what all
these fights she just cashes under
tickets over and over again because
she’s well-rounded she’s durable and
she’s got volume I’m going to take her
by decision here at plus 375 yeah I
think she’s getting better I really do
and I’m with Kyle in the fact that I
think Silva this is such a step up in
competition for her against somebody in
the queen of violence that’s been there
done that with some of the very best in
the division but Maddie you do like look
this fight hits the ground it’s gonna
hit the ground at some point I’m banking
on Ariana being able to stall on the
ground right because I think she she’s
got the advantage of with the hands but
do you think Silva once she gets down to
the ground might be too much for arani
to uh to keep her at bag so this is the
fight I was talking the Gilbert about on
the Pod the other day and he said that
lipsky’s you know defensive grappling
and the amount of training and the work
she’s putting in um to to to fight the
submissions is is incredible um and when
I look at the number on Kar Silva by
submission versus by knockout all the
value here is on The Knockout it’s kin
Silva is the shavkat rock manov of
women’s MMA she has eight wins by
knockout nine by submission shavkat has
eight wins by knockout 10 by submission
both these both these Fighters have
never won a fight by decision right they
finished every single fight they’ve ever
had an MMA so when you’re betting Karina
Silva you’re like do I want to take the
knockout or the sub and on the flip side
here Ariana lipsky has been finished
four times by knockout
Zero by submission so I think oddsmakers
have this completely mixed up I think
the knockout should be more favored and
more likely than the submission but the
submission is like minus 250 The
Knockout is plus 400 I’m taking the
knockout here you know Ariana lipsky has
been ground and pound twice and has lost
by finish and she got starched on the
feet against Priscilla I think Karina
Silva takes this fight to the ground she
looks for the submissions but she can’t
get it and she ends up winning by ground
and pound and I love the number at plus
400 I gotta be honest with you that’s
that’s the one fear I have because I
don’t think lipsky is going to get
submitted I don’t I’m with I’m with
Maddie on that and that’s why I played
the over two and a half rounds
officially at the plus money and Kyle I
know you’re thinking the same thing she
can’t get submitted but I do worry about
the ground and pound I will be honest
with you she postures up right if she
gets control to matti’s point and again
people this is why we give you these
Pathways to Victory the way we see the
fight playing out I think we all see it
similarly and that it’s going to get to
the ground and then what happens in the
ground we know that Silva’s going to
look for subs and to Mattie’s point
doesn’t think she’ll find them and then
reverses course a little bit looks for
control from top position and then goes
for the ground bound I think that’s
plausible and lsky has been uh
susceptible to that it could be where
she controls it right you double chance
it if you don’t want to go crazy risky
go KO because you’re still going to get
a good price right because the money is
all in on on the sub right so if you do
the if you do the double chance decision
KO and I don’t know what that price is I
can look that up sorry I mentioned it
and of course I’m not prepared because
this is what happens it’s probably like
plus 200ish yeah you’re probably getting
a better number on the double chance
decision KO than you are decision
submission and so that might be an
interesting way to go to kind of cover
all the bases because you could see
where lipsky just fighting it off and
maybe Silva’s not able to land that
clean elbow that sort of flattens her
out a little bit and she just dominates
on the ground and that that’s certainly
possible as well yeah yeah I I I think
it’s a really astute handicap gentlemen
and again I think we’re we’re all in a
similar ballpark maybe with different
outcomes here so matti’s gonna go Silva
by KO at 4 to one I think that’s really
smart in that we don’t see uh Sila
getting the submission which I think
most people casuals are going to bet
that I’m G to play the over at two and a
half rounds that that both women are
going to be able to survive whatever
attempts and I think lsky is going to
look for submissions too from the ground
don’t think she’ll be able to get them
at Plus a25 and then Kyle we talk about
it all the time you think the fight’s
going to hit the cards I’d much rather
be on Kyle’s side than laying the
favorite so at plus 375 for the queen of
violence if this thing is close you just
don’t know what the judges are gonna see
so yeah so the double chance is plus 145
knockout decision plus 135 submission
decision so a little closer than I
thought it would be but still that if
you want to kind of meet in the middle
there plus 145 not a terrible way to go
I think those are great odds at bet us
though and so check those out but I
think that’s really smart gentleman
instead of just blindly I think people
are going to blindly bet Silva by
submission not realizing what Maddie
pointed out uh that Gilbert Burns
pointed out is just how good lipsky is
at submission defense but that could
leave her susceptible to ground and
pound if we get top position uh by by
karini Silva all right let’s get to the
uh co-main event of the evening and Ryan
Superman span is going to be taking on
bdan gusov and I know that matd and I
have a play on this Kyle I’m going to
start with you because you do not have a
play on this I want to get what the
hesitancy is and if you had a lean one
way or the other the like my lean is the
plus money on Ryan’s ban or excuse me on
the over one and a half and ah and I
wanted to go there the thing for me is I
don’t think Ryan span should be a minus
180 favorite over anybody quite frankly
um he’s so unpredictable uh sometimes
you look Sensational knocks out Dominic
Reyes you’re like okay that that guy
Dominic Reyes went five hard rounds with
Jon Bones Jones like this is this guy’s
legit he uh who did he sub out oh Ian
calaba which I think is a good I think
is a good sub because Ian calaba is kind
of one of those crazy people that sort
of looks to do that same sort of thing I
thought that was a good win but then you
watch him get sub just kind of give up
against kroff I I I didn’t see any heart
there um the loss against Anthony Smith
you only land 59 significant strikes
against a guy who’s bringing the fight
to you a guy who’s older he’s in the
announcing booth now and you’re coming
out and
you’re so I don’t know what version of
Ryan span I’m gonna get right if I get
the best version of Ryan span he’s the
rightful favorite but this bogon kid’s
young he’s talented has he fought
anybody the poga guy it’s it’s really
hard to to get a read right off of that
because of how bad the competition is MH
I could see the plus money on Bogden and
Ryan spans probably on his way out but
if he’s such a jackal in height I just
stay away from Ryan span fights for the
most part well you and I handicapped it
very similarly and I looked at it and I
go why is Superman span a $2 betting
favorite over anybody and then I look at
at gusoff in specifics right we saw him
when he came into the organization I
believe it was September of last year
they gave him no time Vulcan Emir right
right and it was too soon and you could
see that that level of Step Up coming to
UFC giving him a former Champion uh like
Vulcan was like whoa way too much and
then in February he comes back and they
give him Zack palga and he looks really
good in that first round stoppage right
so the range of Fighters are Vulcan o
deir I mean come on absolutely so to me
I I’ve said this before I think Superman
span is one of the best FIV minute
Fighters that this weight class has but
you you pointed it out Kyle his stamina
in some of it wains and that’s why I was
really surprised whenever he shows
anything in a third round of any fight
cuz normally to me it’s short time span
it’s like you better if you’re back in
Ryan span you better hope this thing
gets done inside 7 and a half minutes
and that’s why I think you play at over
one and a half your lean rather to the
over I’m gonna live but let’s live it
because that’s plus money I I like the
over one and a half uh if we can add one
right yeah if we get if we can live bet
that over one and a half I think that
makes sense uh just just just be and
Ryan span knows and again we’re talking
psych I think psychology matters with
fights right like this stuff matters and
it’s not like these guys don’t know they
know what their ratings are in a video
game ask every player in the NFL from
the guy on the practice squad all the
way up what their Madden rating is they
know you think it’s not some we’re
egotistical Maniacs we’re males this is
what we do we’re obsessed with with you
know being perceived in that way that’s
that’s how we function so I’m certain
that that Ryan span
and Bogden for that matter know exactly
about I I’m playing uh Bogden here at
plus A50 in this fight I love the plus
value on him I do believe that the
organization thought we’re GNA show you
this kid put him right in there against
Vulcan and then they went oh okay gotta
step that back a little bit and then I
think after the palga fight kind of got
a SE legs a little bit UFC I do think it
there’s there’s danger here early I do
think there’s danger here early but uh
Bon’s got big two and if he if he hurts
span with something I think that backs
Superman off a little bit and then he
goes all right I need to figure out away
because recently which is a surprise
span has shown the ability to go a
little bit deeper than what we’re
accustomed to I think your over is live
that’s a red button play for Kyle uh at
over one and a half uh rounds here seven
and a half minutes I believe you’re
getting plus 200 on that pretty good
value there plus 180 or something I
think I think it’s a good price very
good better than I’m getting for for uh
Goose goof here at plus a150 but we’re
both going to roll with plus money here
for goose goof at plus a150 and Kyle’s
gonna play the over one and a half I’ll
tell you right now we’re having some
technical difficulties with Matty’s play
uh Matty’s camera right now but mattye
is on the other side but I I understand
Matty’s handicap because this what I
Wasing to he’s on span round one sub at
plus 350 because I’m with I get that
span is a good five minute fighter and
KY you are getting those two to one
numbers
I talked about over one I love that play
too so like mty’s play makes sense
because if span gets it done I think
it’s earlier not later so Matty’s gonna
go with VI a sub at plus 350 I love
bogun at plus money here at uh plus a150
and the red button play for Kyle is the
over one and a half at two to one odds
in your favor at plus $2 that’s the red
button play I’m with you I totally
understand all three of those positions
and I think as long as we get out of
what makes this beautiful right isn’t it
crazy just just look and and it’s
logical each way and that’s what makes
UFC I think UFC betting very unique in
that way right where there’s certain
paths and certain ways and there’s ways
you can Dink and Dabble and figure it
out or oh bimbly mimble I was just
watching Super Troopers uh the other day
in Tacoma FD and so we can get all
bimbly nimbly with these different
versions of Victory which which I think
makes it unique right well and I by the
way will be on the over as well one and
a half so Maddie is going to clean us
out if this gets done in the first round
because it would be I would think Ryan
span but I think I think gusoff can can
survive the first two and a half minutes
start to turn the tide at the end of the
first round and and spam might be in
survival mode I could see this getting
done late in the second round so that’s
where we’re going to go uh in the
co-main event let’s get to the main
event here Kyle and it’s going to be
Matas Nicola against Alex Perez and
here’s what’s fascinating because know
I’m on an island with you and Maddie in
this one on the Alex Perez side so uh
counselor let me let me grand stand here
for you for a second and you’re gonna
say how in the world can you back Alex
bre I don’t think he’s won a fight in
the UFC in like four years well I think
he should have won the micaa fight that
we just covered I really do we both were
on the on that side too and we got
robbed by the judges because MF sucks I
don’t give a [ __ ] what anyone says M
sucks and Perez on that and and you just
hit it right in the head as to why I’m
on the Alex Perez side for a guy that’s
had what two years of injuries so we
didn’t see him forever when he came into
the organization I think the
organization thought this could be a
future uh title Contender at least at
125 and now now they’re trying to figure
out guys in Nicola and Perez what do we
have in these guys at this stage of
their career you mentioned the Mia fight
that was just back in March and to see
Alex Perez get his SE his fighting SE
legs back I thought was really
impressive so I think you see a more
confident version of Alex Perez in this
potential five round fight against
Nicola here so I don’t know if he can
win a judge’s decision but I think he’s
gonna be really live and for a fight
that I think goes deeper into the Vegas
night I’m gonna take Perez at plus money
here and look I get the Nicolas side I
do I totally understand it but I’m gonna
go off the most recent performance uh
and I a little bit of you know recency
bias here if you will but it’s what I
wanted to see and why I was backing
Perez uh against um Mia the last time
out I’m gonna back him again here at
plus money uh tell me why I’m wrong and
why I should be on the Nickolas side
well for me it’s all about cardio and
Alex Perez has cardio issues he’s how
many fights as he canceled over the
years so he finally gets to fight day I
thought he beat Makai honestly was a
real boring fight I don’t think either
fighter landed more than like 30 or 35
sign significant strikes my concern here
is the short notice here for Alex Perez
was actually preparing to fight Nicola I
think was supposed to fight manell cop
if I’m not mistaken was the was the
original and Perez was supposed to fight
someone
else uh in June or July so he was
preparing for a camp six weeks later but
of course he’s a company guy Alex Perez
has missed several fights because of M
weight not being illness Etc so now he’s
got to get down to a weight class and
I’m not sure he can mate comfortably
he’s got to do it earlier than he
expected and I did not get a chance
today to see the weigh ends but I think
the way he did make weight but I don’t
know if it was a good you never you
never was it a strong Flex or a we I I
like to see how they flex and all that
stuff here I’m not gonna F madd’s on the
show I’m not g to embarrass myself here
uh with that but uh I like how he got a
different background for Maddie it’s
making his face it’s making his left
side of his face skinnier than the right
side which is kind of like when you’re
such a bright star you know what I mean
it’s like Adele oh Adele Adele didn’t
pick the right dress oh my God yeah
so I love that but for me I I I think m
t Nicola uh The Knockout is live I worry
about father time and these hard weight
cuts and all these Mis fights etc for
Alex Perez and the early earlier than he
expected I wonder how prepared he was to
jump into camp and make the fact that he
made weight’s impressive to me I mean
that shows especially at his age he’s
got skill for days and we know that but
Nicol I think is going to be a little
bit stronger if there’s a knockout in
this fight I think it happens by m
Nicola
if it’s a decision I think it’s Nicola
slightly on the volume and the ground
control although you got to be careful
down there with Alex Perez so I did the
double chance at plus 110 um they’re
asking shot bet I’m fine with making a
shot bet I’ll take Nicola over Alex
Perez we got to have some fun on here
plus if I win it’s fun when we get Dave
a little buzzed you know we get Dave a
little buzzed on here it’s kind of fun
so we’ll do it well wait I’m taking the
dog here plus is it a shot and a half
versus one like how does that work oh
fine just just two to one it it’s fine
I’ll take
I’ll do it like I don’t like to do it
anyways I’m I’m a damn you
know today’s one oh deal there it is
Matty is back he’s he’s on the the
Nicola side as well so I’m on the island
here uh with Alex pres Maddie why am I
on the wrong side here because I do look
at recency bias in his fight against MV
and I saw everything I needed to see
from a guy again that I thought the
company thought four years ago could be
a champ Chon in this weight class here
do you think the injuries the bad weight
Cuts it’s too much to now short
turnaround here to get ready for
Nicola yeah I do and I think again you
guys know what I like to do I like to
look at the matchup Nicola literally you
know seven or what five submission wins
he has he’s five and five right in MMA
and then you look at Alex
Perez pretty adorable guy you know only
been knocked out once but it’s been
submitted five times you know and I just
think that Nicola is going to have his
chances in this fight to get a
submission especially with it being a
five rounder I think there’s enough
opportunities where he’s going to be
able to finally showcase some of that
grappling in the UFC um so you know I
I’m on the submission I’m on a scary
amount of submissions this UFC card and
only 19% of UFC fights End by submission
so it it’s scary how many submissions
I’m on on this card um but I’m gonna
take Matas nikolov by sub here I like
that it’s a five rounder and uh again
Alex perz has been submitted five times
you know and I just I just think that
this is a a solid number here I I hate
the fact that Kyle’s on the double
chance leaving the submission out I did
so yeah I mean that’s the one way the
one way yeah I I like to snatch defeat
from the jaws of Victory I love doing
that look at my love life okay I do it
on purpose usually I see those Crimson
Flags just makes me hungry and there we
go there you go run right to those red
flags there there’s the official place
here Nicolia sub for Maddie at three to
one I’m gonna take Perez here plus money
here at plus 40 I think he can win a
decision but I’m I’m hoping if the fight
goes down to the ground maybe he shows
the best version of Perez on the ground
and the double chance for Kyle at plus
money as well which I love we’re all
trying to find that plus money here and
you’re going to go Nicola by KO because
again if you think there’s going to be a
knockout think it’s going to be the
Nicola side or via decision so they’re
going to play the favorite here at plus
a115 so those are the official plays
here The Knockout logic to is the Perez
cardio right so later in the fight when
he just falls apart and that could lead
to a sub as well so we’ll see that’s
what I was gonna say exactly and also I
know and also a shot bet is on the line
I’m taking one if Perez loses the boys
are each doing one if Nicola loses so
that is an official shot bet that we
have on the board
okay great Q&A and I can’t believe we’re
going so long in this card but I love it
because it shows how much we’re into
this this card because there are good
money making opportunities out there and
Bruto asked this this is a great
question $5
million I’m gonna give either one of you
guys of Bruno’s money if you survive
five minutes with Francis Sanu or half
the money two and a half M and you
survive Max Holloway in a five round
fight first of all I’ll answer from my
side this is no-brainer put me in there
against zanu and try to survive five
minutes for the bigger price tag five
rounds with Max I got no shot at that I
think I might be able to run and confuse
the big man for five minutes so I’m
going to take the five Millie chance and
hope I don’t get my not my head knocked
off by enanu Kyle which way are you
going oh God it’s tough so so here’s the
thing so I’m going to do a training camp
and I’ve quit smoking right so I’ve got
some car
like I need like I need a big time cuz
look I’m fine getting hit by Max
Holloway like that dude 150b dude’s not
going to just I I I’m fine with that
okay for 25 minutes I’m fine with that
but and I have a thing too like this’s a
sort of I don’t like Hawaiian Fighters I
think they’re all kind of weak and
mental there just something about the
fighters from Hawaii that just don’t do
it for me I’m sorry I know it’s
mean God ever since the mantio incident
at Notre Dame I’ve just had had a thing
against it and I I don’t know they’re
at yeah it’s not even their fault but
it’s just how it’s going to be and who’s
the other guy that oh there’s the one
Hawaiian guy who I hate so much that
fights I had the tattoo on the legs he’s
not there anymore uh you’re thinking of
uh
oh it’s a yeras what it’s um he’s he’s
just it’s just they’re just weak they’re
so i y madas y m m oh God just just just
just I just hate him the thing with
Francis is like yeah it’s five minutes
and the only way we can hide right we’re
going to run a lot it has to be there’s
no way I can run for 25 minutes and i’
have to even though I’m not that AF like
I try to hit maybe Max a couple times
I’m not even gonna try to like against
Francis it’s going to be the most
embarrassing five minutes of my life I’m
gonna like rip my shorts off and throw
it at his face to try to distract him
and then run around and crawl under his
legs anything I can do to not get hit by
that monster anything yeah it has to be
I can’t survive 25 minutes just
physically against anyone I don’t think
I could go 25 minutes against anybody I
mean again and if you survive the first
four minutes and 50 seconds Maddie with
Max he’s going to point to the middle of
the Octagon then you got 10 seconds to
go I mean which way do you go here in
this
proposition oh it’s it’s it’s a
no-brainer five minutes of Francis yeah
it’s a no-brainer D but he hit once your
face is gonna reshape you know what I
mean like your head’s gonna look
different
just remember the Derrick Lewis fight
where I think there was like seven
punches landed in the entire fight right
so that’s worst fight of all time second
worst fight besides Rose and caros parza
right it’s the second worst fight of all
time right can we agree on that I think
we agree on that I think we’re all on
the same side here we’re just going to
try to survive five minutes for five
Millie uh we got another one you got a
strong enough chin and cardio might be
able to try and chain wrestle Max though
Kyle so that’s what Bruno suggest is
yeah I’m fatter so if I could just lay
on him yeah maybe
absolutely love it all right let’s get
to our Best Bets here and again this is
this is a card after UFC 300 you think a
maybe you EXL and not a lot of plays on
it Maddie we start with you you’ve got a
bunch of plays and you start right out
of the gate and it made me and Kyle red
button play uh with Petrovic here via
sub yeah my favorite play of the card by
far um Leon n is so reckless on the on
the feet on the ground wherever the
fight is she’s just Reckless she’s kill
or be kill
and Petro will find the back or choke of
some sort love the number at plus
175 bado by sub here this is really me
just playing the number at plus 800 this
is definitely one of the bigger long
shots of the card heavy weights not a
lot not a lot of times Ed by sub here
but we’ve seen Dantel may get subbed
multiple times especially against like
sural Gan and I just think it’s a good
number The Medic One same exact thing as
the Machado one I only got to hit one of
these you know sub
crazy it’s crazy I’ve never had this
many Subs on one card um but again I’ve
been printing money I had Alex morono
round two sub against Tim Means that was
25 to one I think it was I’ve just been
printing money fading means by
submission so I’m GNA keep doing it even
if I think the guy he’s fighting doesn’t
have the greatest submissions the club
and sub’s always there everything’s
always you know an option so and then
Jonathan Pierce by subber decision
double chance I just think he’ll be
relentless with the the grappling and
the wrestling and I just think that
he’ll either find a late finish or late
submission or it’ll go to the score
cards you’ve also got Denise you’re
gonna go with r you got that round one
price tag there and I know you’re
looking at Silva via KO at 4 to one and
also we didn’t get to get your opinion
on Ryan span but you do like Superman to
get this done early right yeah I so I
took Ryan span round one sub so what’s
interesting about Ryan span even though
he’s like a low IQ guy he for whatever
reason he always finishes Fighters by
their biggest weakness like if you look
at his topology this is something I
wanted to to talk about but um but with
Ryan span anytime he fights a chinny guy
he wins by knockout but if he fights a
guy that struggles with you know in the
grapple in Department he wins by sub
it’s actually crazy I’m want to pull
this up real quick
um my computer will let me
today’s been a struggle hold on so he’s
literally so he’s
fought um you know Ian C theaba I mean
that was a guillotine choke but like
Dominic Rays right found the chin power
[ __ ]
um what else uh Devin Clark Guillotine
choke um de Clark has a good clinch game
actually and it’s pretty good so when
you give up when you get that against
Deon Clark I think that’s pretty good
yeah yeah yeah and then even in the
Nikita krov fight he almost had the
round one sub you know he was really
close before Nikita reversed it and
ended up subbing him but I just think
gusov from what we’ve seen out of him
like that first round uh that round one
sub loss to to usir I just think Ryan
span’s a lot more dangerous with his
submissions than uz deir all right I I
understand that logic I was mentioning
it too and again I’ll give my picks out
I’m on the opposite side of that I am on
the goose side at plus a do 50 but I I
think spans Pathway to victories earlier
rather than later so I understand
Matty’s logic there red button play here
Petrovic via sub with Matti plus a doll
75 gonna play lipsky and Silva to go
over two and a half rounds a little
dangerous there because we know the
finishing potential certainly for Silva
if she gets a fight down to the ground
but I think uh queen of violence is live
here so I’m gonna play that plus a
dollar 25 and I’m alone shot bet as well
taking Alex Perez in the main event at
plus a doll 40 Kyle we’re Oppo and a
couple of these but we’re all rolling
with Maddie in the first fight of the
night yeah I love that plus 175 so now
we got a reason to watch the prelam so
you order your pizza a little bit early
and get drunk a little bit early I mean
come on let’s live a little people you
know there’s so much bad [ __ ] in the
world why not have a little bit of fun
on a Saturday there we go drink and then
tell people what are you doing I’m
watching a bunch of crappy fights that I
have way too much money on that’s the
American dream after all uh I’m taking
the Dirty Bird too the double chance KO
decision at plus 250 I just think the
pricing is wrong there I don’t think
medit should be that big of a favorite
um having a little fun with that Denise
one I think I think Austin Al I think he
knows he’s supposed to be out early
maybe he survives a little bit Denise
catches him round two a half a uni at
plus 550 Ariana lipsky I’m taking
experience over the young power win by
decision plus 375 soort of a Dave’s
Point uh live bet at the over one and a
half in the bo Bogden oryan span you
know I think Bogden knows too I mean
these guys aren’t idiots they’re
Professionals for a reason they know
Ryan span if you mess around and get on
the ground early he could sub you out oh
over one and a half rounds at two to one
I don’t hate it and then the double
chance obviously with the shot bet
Nicola KO out or decision at plus 115
over the aging and I I’m shocked he made
the weight I I can’t believe he made the
weight so shout out to Alex Perez for
that um in that fight yeah I’m with you
guys I think it’s there’s a lot what I
love about if you just look people and
this is what we try to do each and every
week I think every play that we gave was
at plus money we’re trying to find you
value we’re not just L shock we’re
trying to find you value value people
this is what we do each and every week
here at bet us on on the UFC show so uh
kudos to you guys for for doing that
that due diligence each and every week
as well guys always great to be back
should be an exciting card I know it’s
you know we’ve been off for two weeks so
it’s good to have the UFC back at UFC
Vegas 91 everybody you know the drill by
now uh go to the YouTube channel like
subscribe and get at us each and every
week but for k provance for Matty bets
I’m Dave Ross enjoy UFC Vegas 91 and
we’ll see you next week right here on B
us
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In this video:
UFC Vegas 91 Picks & Predictions for April 27th 0:00
Prelim Picks 10:00
Tim Means vs Uros Medic Fight Predictions 20:27
Jonathan Pearce vs David Onama Fight Predictions 27:18
Austen Lane vs Jhonata Diniz Fight Predictions 34:55
Ariane Lipski vs Karine Silva Fight Predictions 42:48
Ryan Spann vs Bogdan Guskov Fight Predictions 50:49
Matheus Nicolau vs Alex Perez Fight Predictions 57:20
UFC Vegas 91 Questions & Answers 1:04:36
UFC Vegas 91 Best Bets for April 27th 1:07:57
Can Nicolau cement himself as a title contender?