UFC Vegas 91 Full Card Breakdown & Predictions | Matheus Nicolau vs Alex Perez

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what is up everybody Welcome to DFS by
the Numbers these are my full card
breakdown and predictions for UFC Vegas
91 we got matus Nicola going against
Alex
[Music]
pereez better Mo you might get knocked
out knocked out better you might get
knocked out knocked out better Mo you
might and we are back for another full
card breakdown and prediction video we
are back in the Apex here for UFC Vegas
91 coming off of a week off and coming
off of a phenomenal phenomenal UFC 300
card so it’s going to be kind of tough
to go from UFC 300 to this card but no I
like it I think it’s a good card I think
if you like violence you’re going to
like this card this is a card full of
very violent Fighters leang na has a
100% finish rate um Ryan span bogdon
gusov both very good finishers Karina
Silva a 100% finish rate Ros medic a
100% % finish rate we have janata Denise
and Austin Lane both with 100% finish
rate so if you like violence and if you
like watching fights on Saturday you
know this is going to be a good card I
think so yeah definitely looking forward
to breaking it down before we do so if
you guys could leave a like on the video
subscribe to the channel if you have not
already getting really close to 25,000
subscribers so if we can hit that in the
near future that would be awesome and
then a couple of shoutouts I did the
significant strike contest two weeks ago
for UFC 300 and I said I would give
prizes to the top three and if you got
it on the dot I would double the prize
and throw in a shirt uh nobody got it on
the dot but there were three guys that
were one away very close so the correct
answer for significant strikes between
Jamal Hill and Alex Pereira was 36 shout
out to x spav uh he guessed 37 was able
to hit him up and give him his winnings
this is the guy that I’ve been talking
on Discord with for a while so nice to
see him win uh the next gu is Jacob
Milson who I recognize as well 35
significant strikes was his guess he was
won away as as well so got him as
winnings and then uh lastly was the
cillo 37 which was one away as well um
cillo if you could hit me up on Twitter
or Instagram with your PayPal or cash up
I’ll get you your winnings but he was
the only guy I was not able to uh get a
hold of but hopefully you see this and
then I’ll be shouting out I did some
other contest for some other videos as
well I’ll shout those out later in the
week but yeah shout out to those three
guys all three were one away um and then
other than that I do want to shout out
price piix this video is brought to you
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deposit match up to $100 and then uh
also do want to shout out DFS byth
numbers.com that’s where you’ll find all
my other content throughout the week
articles bets stats you name it check it
out on DFS byth numbers.com and with all
that out of the way I say we get into it
feels good to be back and we’re going to
start with the first fight of the card
and I’m assuming they’re going to change
this bout order but as of now we got
mahate going against Gabriel bonitz we
got mahate 24y years old 6 foot with a
71 and a half inch reach N9 and three
and 3 and2 in his last five fights
Gabriel Benitez he’s 35 years old 5’8
with a 71in reach 23 and 11 and two and
three in his last five fights we’ll take
a look at the odds mahate opened upus
300 he’s currently minus 190 and then
Gabriel bonit opened up plus 250 he’s
currently plus 165 so this is kind of a
tricky fight for me because I feel like
minute for minute this fight’s going to
play out pretty close competitively it’s
just you know with mahash you have a guy
that is 11 years younger like that
cannot be ignored you have a guy in
mahash who’s going to be much taller as
well just a much bigger dude in this
matchup I think mahash is probably even
the more durable guy as well you know
Gabriel Bonitas has been finished
several times I think his durability as
of late has not looked that great and
then I was kind of looking through the
record of Gabriel Benitez and I was
looking at his last couple wins and his
last three wins include Charlie
onos who is exciting don’t get me wrong
but Charlie aneros will will never win a
fight in the UFC he went 0 and three and
I believe got cut unfortunately uh the
the next win was Justin James that’s a
throwback name who went one and four in
the UFC got cut um the Guitar Hero
Justin James and then the win before
that was homberto Bondi who also went
one and three in the UFC so those are
his last three wins since what 2018 at
this point he’s now 36 years old 35
years old he’s taken a ton of dam damage
um he hasn’t looked that great as of
late you know coming off that loss to
Jim Miller which isn’t the worst loss in
the world but you know I just feel like
at some point mahat is going to land a
big shot that changes this fight that
probably finishes this fight so I’m
leading mahat by knockout but like I
said I think bonitz can hang in there
for a little bit uh I think it could be
semi-competitive but I think just think
at some point mahash is going to land
that big shot and end the fight so I’ll
say mahate wins this fight I’ll take him
to win by second round knockout I like
the power the youth the size and I’ll
take to get it done all right next we
have uh it’s weird they put the main
event on on the second fight but we have
my favorite fighter in the world leang
nag going against Ivana Petrovic and I
got to do it I got to put it on for a
couple reasons for one it it was 20
bucks this W this wig was 20 bucks and
for two I feel like this might be the
last time we see leang na so got to put
the wig on got to get my money’s worth
while I break down this fight so we got
Ivana Petrovic who is can’t see I don’t
I don’t know how leang does it you know
I can’t see um she’s 29 years old 5’8
with a 71inch reach six and one and
four- one in her last five fights leang
n she’s 27 years old 5’5 with a 67 inch
reach 19- s and 2 and three in her last
five fights we have the biggest favor on
the card here Ivana petrovich opened up
minus 225 she’s currently minus 560 and
leang opened at plus 190 she’s currently
plus 410 so like I said I’m a big fan of
leang Na if you guys guys want to check
um you know videos of me singing in this
wig out go to my Twitter uh DFS numbers
I did a couple I did a spin-off of uh
Hey There Delilah hey there lianga was
pretty good so check that out but yeah
I’ve always been a fan of lianga it was
her first fight with Arn AR on Conor
Losi it was the first fight back with
fans and it was just uh the first fight
of the night it was electric it was back
and forth and at the end of the first
round she was just spent she could not
get up uh her cornerman had to come and
and pick her up and drag her to the
corner she came out in the second round
and got finished and I’m just a big fan
of leang NS she’s a fighter with a 100%
finish rate she’s about as killed or be
killed as you can get and she’s going
against Ivana Petrovic who was actually
an underdog against Lana Carolina and I
casted on Petrovic as an underdog and
it’s weird seeing her as this big of a
favorite but I think that’s probably
because it’s just hard to imagine leang
not beating anybody uh in the UFC with
that said though leang I think has shown
some improvements that Aldrich fight she
was able to get multiple takedown she
was really close to taking the back of
aldrid but got reversed and the problem
with leang knowledge is she just can’t
she can’t battle any adversity like when
the going gets tough she looks for the
door she has seven losses I think six of
them have come inside the distance so
Ivana petrovich although I don’t think
she’s you know that great you know if
she does survive the first couple
minutes if she does get top position
she’s going to just pound away and get a
TKO or find the sub so unfortunately I
got a pick against my girl and I’m going
with Ivana petrovich to win this fight
by second round TKO
um I hope the UFC resigns her you know
she’s going to be 0 and3 or 0 and four
but you know she’s exciting like I’ve
never seen a boring leang n fight I
don’t think this is going to be any
different but yeah I’m taking petrovich
just to win this fight by second round
knockout and the wig is coming off and
probably for the last time probably for
the last time unfortunately all right
now we got to talk about this fight we
got Kellin sza going against
marmahon we got Kellin sza 28 years old
5 foot3 with a 63in reach 13 and four
and 4- one in her last five fights
marmahon 31 years old 5 foot with a 64
in reach 6 and2 and 3-2 in her last five
fights we have another really big
favorite here catlyn sza opened at minus
200 she’s currently minus 325 mcmah
opened up plus 170 she’s currently plus
275 so I don’t know what to do with this
fight cuz you know Marik manah she has a
path to Victory here uh you know Kellin
Sosa I think she has a big hole in her
game and that big in her game is going
to be the ground game we’ve seen her
taken down not only in the in her debut
against Karina Silva where she got taken
down and submitted instantly like she
can be taken down she can be held down
um and that kind of worries me here
because in theory marmahon might be able
to get takedowns it’s just on the feet I
think it’s oneway traffic I actually
really didn’t mind the Striking of
Katlin sza she’s just going to come
forward she’s going to throw a lot of
volume she has really good cardio she’s
really tough as well there’s some things
I did like seeing out of Katlin sza and
with mikm you know she has some
wrestling some grappling but she’s still
making a lot of mistakes on the mat I
went back and watched some of her fights
and she was getting reversed she was
getting put into bad spots on the mat
you know she was submission over
position it just wasn’t the best looks
and I I think sza’s takedown defense is
improving you go back and watch some of
her fights earlier in her career she’s
getting taken down and held down easily
but watch some of her recent fight you
know she is doing a better job at
stuffing takedowns and I think that’s
something she’s probably putting a big
emphasis on and if she’s able to keep
this fight on the feed it’s just going
to be oneway traffic
um but even if man does get a taked down
here or there you know the way that that
these fights are getting judged lately
damage Over Control like I don’t see man
even if she gets taking Island’s doing
much on the ground whereas on the feet I
think s is going to put kind of a beat
down on man so I’m going klin SOA here
I’m taking her to win by decision the
money Line’s ridiculous at minus 325 but
I I think she wins um moving on to the
worst fight on the card we got Kyle
Machado going against Dantel Mae we got
Kyle Machado 29 years old 6’4 with a 78
inch reach 8- one and 4-1 in his last
five fights D Mae 32 years old 6 fo6
with an 81in reach 10 and six and 22 and
one no contest in his last five fights
we’ll take a look at the odds they
opened up out a pick them uh minus 110
each way probably where they exactly
should be but um Kyle Machado went to an
underdog after that and then since then
K Machado is now the favorite he’s minus
130 and Dantel ma is now a plus 110
Underdog so yeah this is a really weird
fight because Kyle Machado is a guy that
I remember watching his fight with Kevin
sari on the contender series and it was
just the worst fight I’ve ever seen in
my life I mean Kevin SAR it was more so
sari didn’t really show up but still was
a terrible fight I was shocked that Dana
White signed him but he did and then he
makes his debut against Mick Parkin
right and he’s a pretty big Underdog but
he actually looked pretty decent in that
fight and I don’t want to say arguably
won but I mean you outstruck Parkin
pretty much in every single round it was
just parin was able to get some control
win some minutes but you know it was
Kyle Machado you know doing the better
work on the feet against um Mick Parkin
which was very impressive because
Parkin’s not a terrible Striker uh Kyle
Machado actually out landed Mick Parkin
76- 39 like that’s that’s very
impressive and even in the sfari fight
where Safari literally did did not show
up he only landed 17 strikes Machado
landed 121 so it’s not too often and you
get you know big heavyweights you can go
out there and land 100 plus significant
strikes but Kyle Machado is that guy
he’s very active um he’s he’s quick he’s
goingon to be quicker in this match up
for sure so yeah I like the Striking of
Kyle Machado but you know the the one
thing that does worry me and I and it
what worries me is the ground game you
know mle Machado I think he’s a black
belt but you know we saw Mick Parkin
take him down three times control him
for 6 minutes and ultimately that’s what
won Mick Park in the fight if parin was
not able to get those takedowns it would
have been been a pretty easy decision in
favor of of Kyle Machado but he was
taken down he was held down the question
is is is Dantel May going to come out
there and do that um and I’m not sure
Dantel ma is averaging less than one
takedown per 15 minutes and you take a
look through his entire UFC career
there’s really evidence of him going out
there and being D1 dant El may just once
and that fight was against Josh peran
which which probably shouldn’t count to
be honest but he went out there against
Josh pan and landed six takedowns which
that’s great but other than that the
most takedowns he’s landed in a fight
was one and that was against Ro Martinez
and come to think of it there’s only
been two fights in the UFC where he’s
actually landed one takedown so you know
assuming that you know Dantel May is
going to come out here and wrestle I I
think some people are going to be
disappointed um because I’m not sure if
he does and even if he does like is he
going to have success taking down and
holding down Kyle Machado like Kyle did
do a a decent job in terms of getting
back up against mck Parkins so um I like
Machado here I think the line movement
is is probably warranted but at the end
of the day like this is a sloppy
heavyweight fight that’s going the
distance and the judges are probably
going to probably going to probably
going to get it wrong like always but uh
I’m going Machado here I’m going Machado
to win by decision I think he’s the
better Striker more volume much quicker
and ultimately wins this fight by
decision but it could get greasy it’s a
dtown maze fight moving on we have the
most Apex f fight of all time and
Michael figl going against Austin Hub we
got Michael figl 27 years old 5’10 with
a 70inch reach 8- one and 4- one in his
last five fights Austin hubard 32 years
old 5’1 with a 71 inch reach 15- s and
three and2 in his last five fights let’s
take a look at these odds so it was um
figl actually opened up plus 130 he’s
now the favorite minus 155 Austin hover
opened up minus 150 he’s now the dog at
plus 135 and you know going back and
watching fig laak’s last fight which was
a a pretty long time ago you know fig
laac went out there in his debut against
farest Zam that was back in September of
2022 so about a year and a half layoff
which is it’s concerning but at the same
time you know I kind of like when these
younger fighters you know take a year
and a half off and you know make
improvements because if if you’re
getting you know beat by far as I am the
way he did you better take some time off
and um improve and I and if he does come
back here and and improved uh maybe he
does come out here and look like a whole
different fighter but you know I think
he’s he’s probably better than what he
showed in the Zion fight but I can’t get
that Zion fight out of my head like he
made far Z look like Bo nickel out there
I mean far Z was taking this guy down he
was out scrambling him he was he was out
grappling him far Z was getting him in
some bad spots like far Z’s a kickboxer
and and like I said he looked like Bo
nickel just taking this guy down
controlling it was it was a horrible
look just a terrible look look so I
think figl is better than what he showed
but you know I’d be lying if I said I’m
not extremely concerned about him
getting outg grappled by kickboxer far
as I am and Austin hubard although he’s
not the the best wrestler or Grappler in
the world you know he’s a decent
wrestler he’s a decent Grappler I think
he’s either a brown belt in BJJ maybe a
black belt at this point um but yeah
he’s he’s kind of decent everywhere
Austin hub’s a decent Striker decent
Grappler decent wrestler he’s not really
great anywhere outside of maybe
durability and and cardio are probably
his best attributes and those have won
him some fights in the UFC so I think
Austin hubard in theory has a path to
Victory like if far as I am’s taking it
down Austin hubard can as well but you
know there’s hasn’t been a ton of fights
where Austin hub’s going out there and
implementing that game plan uh Kyle prle
back in 2019 hubber was able to go out
there and take him down three times and
then against Vince Pelle couple years
ago Hub hubard was able to take down
Pelle four times but wasn’t able to hold
him down I think it’s a close fight you
know I think we might see a new improved
version of fig laac and for that reason
I kind of want to stay away here but I’m
going to pick the dog and in Hub to go
out there make this close uh mixing some
takedowns and ultimately win a decision
in this one so give be Austin hubber
Austin hubber by
decision moving on we have Victor Henry
going against Ronnie Yaya we got Victor
Henry 36 years old 5 foot7 with a 68
inch reach 23 and six and 3-1 and one no
contest in his last five fights Ronnie
Yaya 39 years old 5’6 with a 68 in reach
281 and one and 22 and one in his last
five fights we have Victor Henry opening
up minus 650 is’s currently minus 500
Ronnie yaa opening up plus 475 currently
plus
375 and um you guys know how I feel
about liars uh Ronnie Y is not 39 years
old I mean maybe add like 20 years to
that and I think you’ll get the correct
age of Ronnie ya ya I mean this guy’s
not 39 I mean this guy looked 39 maybe
20 years ago um but you know he’s still
going out there he’s still competing and
he’s still winning some fights outside
of his last fight against Montel Jackson
but we have Victor Henry here as a
pretty big favorite and I think it’s
because it’s a pretty tough match up for
for R yaaya here Ron yaaya his
wrestling’s actually not terrible like
if he can get you down you stay down um
he’s a like a fifth degree black Bel in
BJJ he’s incredible on the ground it’s
just again he’s
39 like he’s like 50 60 years old at
this point Point um I don’t think the
cardio has ever been that great I don’t
think he has the wrestling to take down
Victor Henry because Victor Henry does
have pretty good takedown defense Victor
Henry does have really good grappling in
his own right and I think he has really
good cardio as well and then on the feed
is just it’s just not even competitive
it’s going to be Victor Henry all day so
um that should be Victor Henry it’s just
does does he finish Ronnie AA or does he
win by decision and I’m actually kind of
leading decision because Ronnie yaaya
although getting knocked out by Montel
Jackson his last fight he is very
durable ronia the last time he was
finished prior to the Montel Jackson
fight was back in 2009 against Joseph
benovitz and he’s had a ton of fights
since then Sanaya he is still very
durable um I think Henry STS the
takedowns keeps him the feet pushes the
pace and just just lands more lands a
lot more in this fight so give me Victor
Henry to win this fight I’ll take him to
win this fight by
decision moving on we got OS medic going
against Tim Means we got medic 31 years
old 6’1 with a 71 inch reach n and two
and three and two in his last five
fights Tim Means 40 years old 6’3 with a
75 in reach 335 and one and two and
three in his last five fights uh we got
another big favorite on this card and
osmic he opened up has a minus 20000
favored he’s currently minus 300 we got
Tim Means opening up plus 170 he’s
currently plus
250 and um yeah this should be a fun
fight you know this is an ER OS medic
fight OS medage has not seen the
distance yet and I I don’t really think
that changes here OS medic did lose his
last fight um to um my titty back oral
ball or whatever his name is oralay his
last fight we’ll see him next week for
UFC 301 no shame in that you know I
think oralay is a very good fighter uh
prior to that he did beat Matthew
semelsberger by third round spinning
back fist which was nice and then he
knocked out Omar Morales in the second
round prior to that so yeah I was
actually really impressed with that
let’s go back to that semelsberger fight
like that was a a very eye opening
performance for Eros medish and here’s
why he took that fight on short notice
smsh like pretty short notti like a
week’s notice against uh sburg right and
then it was actually medic that was
showing the better cardio in that
matchup it was It was kind of cool to
see he got hurt a couple times early on
was able to battle through some
adversity he uh took the fight to the
third round and landed a big shot in the
third round and finished Matthew
simburger so to see OS medage go that
deep into the fight and still carry that
power that’s that’s a good thing to have
in this match up against Tim Means he’s
going to be nine years younger and I
think this is a guy in OS medage who’s
just getting better whereas Tim Means
this is going to be his 50th fight as
far as I’m concerned in terms of you
know MMA like 50 505 for Tim Means he’s
taken a ton of damage especially as of
late this is a guy in Tim Means who used
to be extremely durable and I think at
one point like he had never been knocked
out up until that Nico price fight niik
price knocked him out and then since
then his durability has been like iffy
in a bunch of fights like Daniel
Rodriguez heard him multiple times in
that fight ended up getting the club and
sub by guillotine in the second round um
there was the fight with Kevin Holland
Kevin Holland dropped him bad in the
second round locked up the DAR joke um
Alex morono uh clubbed and subbed him
and then even Max Griffin knocked him
down so yeah you know Tim Means is a guy
that’s getting hurt in a lot of fights
as of late he’s only getting older he’s
only taking more damage and I think uh
you know medic probably goes out there
and knocks him out or
gets the club and sub because a lot of
times means he’s not getting knocked out
he is getting subbed but he’s getting
hurt prior to those you know submission
losses so he’ll get hurt he’ll shoot in
and maybe medish can snatch up a neck
here but yeah I just think medish has so
much power like went back and watched
that Omar Morales fight and what he did
to Omar Morales was very impressive
because Omar Morales not the best
fighter in the world but what he is is
super durable and he landed a couple big
shots and put him out and I think he
lands some big shots here and puts out
uh The 40-Year-Old in Tim mean so I’m on
medic and I think it’s probably early as
well I’m going medage to win this fight
by first round
knockout moving on we have a very fun
fight we got Jonathan Pierce going
against David onama you got Jonathan
Pierce 31 years old 6 foot with a 71
inch reach 14 and5 and 4- one in his
last five fights David onama 29 years
old 5 foot 11 with a 74 in reach 11-2
and 3 and2 in his last five fights we
got Jonathan Pierce opening up minus 150
currently minus 180 David opening up
plus 130 currently plus 155 and yeah
this fight’s awesome it’s a Jonathan
Pierce fight I like watching his fights
um I like the style that he brings to
the table the pace he pushes um I
actually picked uh Joe Anderson breu in
his last fight though I picked Bru to
win the fight I bet a Bru to win in
rounds one or rounds two and that bet
was looking dead up until you know breu
uh snatched up Pierce’s neck like uh the
second round was almost I feel like it
was like a minute left in that fight and
it was funny uh you know Jonathan Pierce
was standing on top of Bru and he was
like do something boy get up boy
something like that and then Bru gets up
and gets like a ninja choke it was it
was funny to see but prior to that
Jonathan Pierce was on one heck of a
roll I mean he was on a five event or
five fight winning streak the majority
of those coming by finish and Jonathan
Pierce is a guy that just wrestles
wrestles wrestles he breaks you down he
breaks you down and then he finishes you
typically in the second or third round
or or cruises to a dominant decision and
I think it’s a tough match up here for
onama like I like onama
uh just as much as everybody else but I
mean he’s a 45% takedown defense Nate
Lan was able to take him down three
times and then um more disturbingly you
know Mason Jones was able to take him
down eight times like that’s that’s not
good like Jonathan Pierce should have no
trouble taking down David odami here at
will rinse and rupat and you know
there’s a big difference between like a
Nate landar on top you where I think
Nate lamber really let onama off the
hook in that fight and Mason Jones did
as well like if Jonathan Pierce gets on
top of you he’s not going to let you
breathe he’s going to be landing strikes
he’s going to be getting into dominant
positions and I think he does eventually
finish David onama in that second or
third round if David onama is able to
stuff the takedowns here he probably
does knock out Jonathan Pierce it’s just
you know I I struggle to see him
stuffing those takedowns so I think
Pierce is going to get his game going
early the takedowns early the ground
strikes early and I think eventually
he’s going to break down and finish
onama I’ll say second round uh
submission for Jonathan Pierce
all right moving on we got janata Denise
going against Austin Lane we got Denise
32 years old 6’4 with a 79 and a half
inch reach 6 and0 and 5 and0 in his last
five fights Austin Lane 36 years old 6’6
with an 80 in reach 12- four and 31 and
one no contest in his last five fights
we have uh Denise opening up minus 350
currently minus 235 and then Austin Lane
opening up plus 285 currently plus 200
um this is one of those fights where
it’s like I’m not sure why the line is
is kind of where it’s at in terms of I
kind of think it should be wider but you
know I don’t know if people are thinking
that Austin Lane’s going to wrestle
because that would be like the one thing
like Denise this is a guy that only has
six MMA fights he does have a a a big
kickboxing background um so he’s he’s an
experienced fighter but in terms of the
ground game we haven’t seen anything of
his ground game you go back and watch
his fights outside of the contender
series and he is stuffing some takedowns
but against like some nobody’s if Austin
Lane can get takedowns here this fight
gets very interesting very quickly but
you know I’m just I’m not sure if he’s
going to be able to or if he’s even
going to try you know Austin Lane is
more of a more of a striker he’s a big
long rangy guy 6 foot6 80 inch reach um
but the Striking defense is very
questionable he leaves that chin up in
the air the Chin’s very questionable he
has four losses all four of those come
by knockout Austin Lane has 16 fights
all 16 of finished inside the distance
um I think it’s probably a setup fight
here for Denise like Denise is the guy
that he’s very fun to watch because he
comes forward and he just throws bombs I
mean he comes forward tries to take your
head off and I think that’s probably
what happens here but again like Austin
Lane in theory if he can get on top here
like this fight gets interesting I’m not
sure he does so I like Denise here I
think he has a ton of power I think
Austin Lane’s too hitable I think Denise
marches forward and and finishes this
fight in the first round going be Denise
by first round
knockout next we have a very fun fight
here I see why they put it on the main
card we got Karina Silva going against
ariani lipsky we got Silva who is 30
years old um 5 foot5 with a 67 inch
reach 17 and four and five and0 in her
last five fights lipsky 30 years old 5’6
with a 67 in reach 17 and8 and 4- one in
her last five fights Karina Silva opened
up about a pick them but Karina Silva
did go to dog money for a while last
week and um now she’s a favorite in the
line just seems to keep getting wider
she’s currently sitting at minus 155 and
lipsky is currently sitting as a plus
135 Underdog and this is a very tough
fight to call because I’m high on on
both these Fighters and I think both
these Fighters have looked incredible as
of late like Ariana lipsky you go back
and watch some of her past fights and
there’s some some terrible looks like
you know getting brutally tko’ed by
montela Montana De la Rosa is just
inacceptable that was De la Rosa’s first
knockout whenever getting brutally
tko’ed by anthon shevchenko is just so
unacceptable but you know that was back
in 2020 getting knocked out by Priscilla
cashua it’s not the worst look but it’s
also not the best like I mean Priscilla
is not that great I’m a big fan of
Priscilla so anytime you know the fight
hits the mat you know Ariana lipsky is
in a lot of trouble against Fighters
like Montana de la Roa and ant antonina
shevchenko what the heck is going to
happen if Karina Silva gets this fight
down to the mat I mean if she gets the
fight down to the mat it is a wrap like
if if you’re Aron ipy the floor is lava
in this matchup but with that said Aran
olsky has done an incredible job at
keeping the fight standing as of late
against JJ Aldrich Aldrich went 0 for2
on takedowns is that impressive kind of
it is JJ aldrid but yeah over 12 on
takedowns Melissa go 0 for seven on
takedowns that’s 0 for 19 in the last
three fights Casey O’Neal 0 for two on
takedowns it’s 0 for 21 in her last
three fights she has a 100% taked down
defense in her last three fights and if
that continues here um she could win
this fight you know lipsky is a very
good Striker very dangerous very
powerful but like I said if Karina is
able to get this fight down to the match
he’s going to make it look easy I mean
lipsky made Montana de la Roa and anony
shevchenko look like you know ham zamay
against like John Phillips I mean it was
it was it was bad and Karina Silva’s
ground game is no joke whatsoever but
even if this fight doesn’t hit the mat
like on the feet is is lipsky the better
Striker I’d say so but but karinaa Silva
has a ton of power Karina Silva hurts
fighters on the feet she really hurt
Marina morose on the feet looked like
she really hurt paana patello on the
feet so even if she’s not able to get
the takedown she’ll probably get the
knockdown because lipsky doesn’t have
the best chin I don’t think like lipsky
been knocked out four times we saw
Priscilla herder and knock her out in
one minute um yeah although lipsky has
been looking good I it’s it’s really
hard for me to pick against Karina Silva
U I just see Karina Silva getting this
fight down to the mat at some point
whether it’s a takedown whether it’s a
knockdown getting on top and and pretty
much destroying lipsky so I I like
Karina Silva here I like Karina Silva to
actually give lipsky her first
submission loss lipsky has four losses
by knockout um but I think it’s sub I
think it’s Karina Silva to win this
fight by first round
submission moving on we got the uh the
comain event and sorry guys for the jump
scare I mean Boon Gustav is a is a
terrifying looking looking guy I mean
that kind of scared me myself um but
yeah we got Ryan span going against
bogdon gusov we got Ryan span 32 years
old 6’5 with an 81 and A2 inch reach
21-9 and two and three in his last five
fights gusov 31 years old 6’3 with a 76
in reach 15 and three and 4- one and his
last last five fights Ryan span opened
up minus 255 currently minus 200 kusov
opened up plus 215 currently plus 170
and this is a interesting fight to break
down because skill for skill it’s not
even close I mean Ryan span is so much
more skilled than than bogdon gusov like
it’s not even debatable I mean in in
every area I mean on the ground it’s you
know the biggest discrepancy you you’d
ever see Ryan span’s a very very good
Grappler very dangerous Grappler and
bogdon guskov is is not he got submitted
by by Vulcan usir uh even on the feet
Ryan span’s a big big dude big reach
with a ton of power um and guskov has a
ton of power as well but guskov is very
hitable and you know I it’s it’s hard to
not imagine Ryan span losing this fight
but with that said like these are two
big dudes these are two big dudes that
are going to go after it they’re going
to throw hard and um I guess Gus Go’s
live for that reason but like I said
Ryan F just so much better he’s fought
so many more better guys like he’s out
there you know fighting guys like Nikita
Krill Anthony Smith twice Misha cenov
Johnny Walker you know Devin Clark Sam
Al I know it’s Devin Clark and Sam Alvi
but those are a lot better than than
Zack palga Zack palga I mean and by the
way guskov went out there in his debut
against Vulcan
usir and that was a massive step up and
Vulcan was only likeus 150 in that fight
he went from Vulcan uzir to Zack palga
that has to be like one of the biggest
steps down in like UFC history and he
did go out there and beat Zack palga but
again it’s Zach poga who I don’t think
has the best chin and he did what he
needed to do and got the first round
knockout I think it’s another massive
step up and I think Ryan span crushes
him here in the first round and I think
it’s probably could be a knockout could
be a sub like if Ryan span gets his
fight down to the mat it is a WP uh
don’t really trust Ryan span to do that
though um so I’m kind of leading like a
like a club and sub here for Ryan span
but I think this fight does end in the
very first round one way or another but
I’ll take span to get the first round
submission moving on we got the main
event Matas Nicola going against Alex
Perez we got Nicola 31 years old 5 foot6
with a 66 inch reach 193 and one and 4-
one in his last five fights Alex Perez
32 years old 5’6 with a 65 1/2 inch
reach 24-8 and two and three in his last
five fights Nicola is the favorite open
atus 180 currently minus 185 Perez
opened up plus 155 currently plus 160
it’s kind of weird seeing Perez back in
there so quickly because this is a guy
in Perez who has like one fight or like
two fights to last like four or five
years um but he’s only taken like a
month off whereas Nicola’s taken about a
year off so it’s weird seeing Perez back
in here but he is and uh yeah should be
an interesting fight here but it’s a
tough fight to call in my opinion
because I think I’ve always been a
really big fan of Nicola I think he’s
he’s really good but this is a guy in
Nicola who’s just too low volume for my
liking he’s such a great Striker he has
really good power like Nicola has really
really good power but he doesn’t let his
hands go that much A lot of his fights
have looked you know very lackluster
like the David Dvorak fight was um
terrible it was just terrible even like
that the Tim Elliott fight just didn’t
have much urgency in that fight but yeah
when he does let his hands go he’s very
good he’s very powerful and then he has
a black belt on BJJ he’s very good on
the mat but in this matchup it’s like
you know Alex Perez he’s been submitted
a million times but Alex pres does have
Elite takedown defense we even saw it in
the makave fight who I think MV is a
better wrestler than Matas Nicola Matas
Nicola is averaging about a takedown and
a half for 15 minutes so doesn’t wrestle
a ton and even like even if he does here
is he going to be able to take down Alex
Perez who has like a 82% takedown
defense I’m not I’m not so sure so I
kind of feel like this fight’s going to
take place standing and and when it does
I do like the Striking a lot of Nicola
but it’s the low volume that I don’t
that I don’t really like and on top of
that I like the power of Nicola but Alex
prz has never been knocked down ever so
it’s a tricky fight but I absolutely
have to pick Nicola I just have some
concerns I have some concerns with the
volume with the chin of Nicola like
Nicola has been finished in all four of
his losses I believe and I think the
major or three of those losses I think
the majority of those come by um by
knockout as well I think he has like
three knockout losses which is little
concerning but at the same time like
Alex Perez isn’t some murderous power
punchers so I know we finished ju a fora
with with leg kicks but but that’s about
it so yeah um I’m going to take nickola
here I feel like this fight could maybe
disappoint a little bit as sad as sad as
that’s to say just because of the way
Nicola fights he’s so smart he’s so good
he’s so smart he slows the fight down um
he sets a like a slower paced fight and
you know that that’s what he does so I’m
taking Nicola I’m taking Nicol out to do
the better work across 25 minutes and
win this fight by decision there you
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there best of luck everybody
and enjoy UFC Vegas 91 we’ll talk to you
later see you