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what up welcome in to another episode of
the MLB swing for the fences show here
on the Run Pier Sports YouTube channel
talking Thursday morning’s 8 game MLB
slate we got some day baseball NBA
playoffs and the NFL Draft third andong
fun day of sports today no question
about it kicking off of course with a uh
I think a pretty fun early baseball
slate how you doing on this Thursday
morning
Bryce I’m great uh love draft day uh
really like day baseball you know just
kind of not like get it out of the way
but you know you get a day sweat and
then you know got the NBA playoffs
tonight got hockey playoffs going NFL
draft it’s just really solid day
sports yeah can’t complain I wish I wish
we had day baseball like every day I
like these you know doing these early
shows breaking it down watching the
games and then especially uh when
there’s NBA playoffs at night right
where I’m usually kind of depending on
what kind of sweats I got going on but
uh yeah uh wish we could you get this
going every day but we certainly have it
today so yeah we’ll try to pick some
winners and uh yeah I’m excited for the
NFL draft what do you have a team in the
NFL Bryce that you root for mostly so I
grew up a Steelers fan like my family is
from Pittsburgh so kind of but like
since I moved to Indiana like I go to I
know couple Colts games a year so I’d
consider myself like kind of kind of
both but you know I
I have so much on on the line every
Sunday it’s like kind of hard to root
for a team like yeah the Pirates are the
team I really root
for yeah I mean that’s yeah anyone
that’s playing any uh you know decent
volume in in DFS or or betting it’s
you’re rooting with your money it’s
always the case like I I root for the
Vikings obviously growing up and then
kind of adopted the Chiefs as well uh
and so yeah those are my two teams but
you know if I don’t have momes on my
main dff themes and uh I’m rooting for
somebody else primarily so I think
that’s probably the case for a lot of
people watching but the NFL draft
nevertheless a fun time I’m excited to
see what my Vikings end up doing
obviously kind of made some trades got a
lot of ammunition need a quarterback so
we’ll see there any uh any hot takes on
the NFL draft or NBA before we uh kick
it off into baseball we got some people
still trickling in this morning so we
could spend a little time here yeah any
anything uh any big bets for you
anything like that on the NFL draft I
haven’t placed any bets yet but if I do
I’ll be sure to post them in the bets
Channel and uh the NFL channel you over
at runer sports but I mean I just think
it’s a really strong draft overall like
especially for offensive Talent you know
it seems I mean to me this has the
potential to be the best receiver draft
of all time like I think you have some
pretty like can’t miss Guys near the top
and then like you have some really good
guys in like the second and third rounds
that you can pick up too I think uh my
favorite guy relative to like his
projected draft position would be like
TZ Walker out of Carolina uh pretty high
on him and and Drake May in general I
mean I think Jaden Daniels is really
good too I mean neighbors can’t really
miss with him uh I think the you know I
like all the receivers I who’s that
who’s that who’s that Oregon kid I think
te T is
it um Oregon guy they got
I think he’s like a second third
round the Speedster is out of Texas
Xavier worthy set the the combined
record for tro Troy Franklin I think is
the guy that I’m thinking of from yeah
Troy Frank Troy Franklin’s up there too
um I kind of prefer the guys out of
Washington I like adun a lot I like
McMillan a lot but yeah I mean Troy
Franklin’s a good player too I you know
as I said earlier this is one of the
best offensive drafts in a long time
I think the one big mistake is like
teams moving up to take JJ McCarthy so I
kind of hope your Vikings don’t end up
on him that’s what I’m Hing
for if I had to guess what quarterback
they get it would be McCarthy but yeah
um there’s been a lot of smoke to him uh
or smoke about him going three to the
Pats and I don’t really see them taking
him over Drake may I think that’ be a
huge mistake I’m pretty high on pretty
high on and TZ Walker out of Carolina so
kind of interested to see how it plays
out I would love if the Colts got like a
receiver like if they moved up a couple
picks to get like an adun type um I
think that would be a really strong move
um you know you have really good
offensive lineman too for teams that
need them uh I mean Brock Bowers you
know has potential to be like top five
NFL tight end when he walks into the
league there’s not many guys that are
promade like him so you know I he’s an
offensive changing player as well yeah I
feel like your Colts need some uh speed
on the perimeter to go with that big arm
Richardson has and then Pitman over the
middle right yeah yeah for sure um you
know I could even see the Colts like
moving back to try and take like an
absolute Speedster like Xavier worthy um
I think a Donnie Mitchell has some of
the highest upside in the draft class I
kind of think he sneaks into the end
back end of the first round um I don’t I
don’t love Nixon pennic I think I’d
rather like if you don’t get one of the
top QBs I think I’d rather drop down a
bit um I don’t mind that like if a team
ends up with them in the first round I
think that’s a better play than than a
JJ McCarthy in my opinion but you know I
that’s why they play the games to see
but it’s a pretty good draft for guys
who need offensive Talent my worry about
penic is his his weapons were just so
good I mean I tweeted out during the
season that like the the Huskies
Washington Huskies in my opinion had a
better wide receiver room than some NFL
teams that’s a crazy thing to say but
Jaylen Hulk’s an elite player too
sneaking into the back end of the first
round I think McMillan will be the last
one picked he’s more of like the the
slot guy with more of a limited NFL role
than the other guys but he’s gonna be
good too I think all three of those
Washington guys are gonna be good for o
so yeah uh really really fun draft I
can’t wait for it I think we’re gonna
see a bunch of Trades I think the the
DraftKings line on trades in the first
round is like six and a half or
something like that so uh should be fun
night of NFL draft course got NBA
playoffs as well uh yeah can’t wait for
all that but we got baseball first so
with that let’s jump right into it we’ll
go game by game of course starting with
Philadelphia and the Cincinnati Reds
Zack Wheeler on the hill for the
Phillies he’s been uh pretty much what
you’d expect from from uh from Zack
Wheeler he’s been awesome this year I
think uh on short list of best pitchers
in baseball at least for me is Mr
Wheeler he’ll go opposite Nick Martinez
who pitched his last two outings I
believe out of the bullpen did throw 90
and 92 pitches in his first two outings
of the year he’s made four parces h so
he should I think be able to go mid 80s
maybe up to 90 pitches I I wouldn’t be
too concerned with his workload not all
that interested in Martinez though I
think the big question mark is what you
do with Zack Wheeler I assume he’ll be
one of the more popular pitchers on the
Slate he certainly should be in my
opinion the take on a Red’s team in
Great American so you know some home run
risk obviously they have power they also
strike out a lot do the Reds and the
Reds have also had a pretty soft
schedule of pitchers that they faced for
the most part uh so I do favor wheeler
in this matchup he’s looked really
really good uh took a no hitter into the
eighth inning against the white socks
last time out hasn’t really had a hiccup
the entire season so far and yeah expect
uh expect more of the same for wheeler I
think the strikeouts are almost
certainly going to be there yeah maybe
gives up a home run or two but I think
he has a very high floor and in my
opinion also the highest ceiling of any
pitcher on the Slate so in on Zack
Wheeler here I’m playing 150 so maybe a
Sprinkle of Nick Martinez and I’ll have
some Billy’s bats as well won’t be going
too many Reds other than uh Mr Ellie De
La Cruz who I gotta get a piece of this
guy no matter who they’re facing if it’s
a good pitcher like wheeler then you
take the ownership discount right but he
just has slate breaking potential we
talk about the time each and every time
he steps on the field especially when he
gets to swing from the left side which
you will hear so yeah that’s that’s
Philadelphia Cincinnati for me what
about you brce what do you see between
these two teams yeah I think wheeler is
pretty much the clearcut sp1 on this
slate I don’t really think there’s any
debate for that it’s more like how you
play him and like if you want to play
him with the ownership that he’s
projected to get here uh you know he’s
not going to come in cheap I think the
total chock pairing here is wheeler and
then uh Simeon Woods Richardson
yeah kind of leaves you enough money to
do whatever you want with your bats and
you know get the 10K pitcher so you know
I might be a little hesitant playing
those two together just because I think
it’s going to be super popular playing
like if you’re playing wood Richardson
you know maybe drop down a little bit of
pitcher you know if you’re playing
wheeler you know maybe get up a little
bit you’re saying specific specifically
the combination of the two yeah I think
the combo just because you’re spending
14k on pitcher and you have like two of
the two of the better pitchers like
Woods richers it’s just way too cheap on
this slate yeah so I think that kind of
leads people to spending more at s SP2
so I think Wheeler’s ownership could
come in like even higher than projected
and you know I’m seeing him around 45%
it wouldn’t surprise me I think that’s
kind of his floor here so I’ll likely be
I would guess like 40% wheeler I don’t I
don’t think it’s like an all-in type of
play I think he has the upside that
you’re looking for against the strikeout
heavy Cincinnati team facing five
right-handed hitters so so you know it’s
a tough fade but you know I’ll probably
play it between 40 and 50% um and then
you know the only Cincy bat you know I
really like is Ellie here I think it’s
more like Leverage one off like one to
three man Stacks here for Cincinnati if
you want to play some bats I don’t think
it’s the worst idea just because you
know he will give up a couple home runs
here and there so you know if you catch
one or two and you know he doesn’t like
get the strike out upside in his outing
you know he’s not optimal so I don’t
mind that uh Cincinnati kind of just
runof-the-mill offense for me here not
super interested mainly small Stacks
Philly I do have a little bit more
interest in um you know Road teams in
Great American I always like but you
know it’s not the best hitting weather
for them here
so and they’re super expensive like you
don’t really get any discounts on any of
the bats here besides maybe like an Alec
bone type of guy um you know it’s an
expensive stack I think it’s a little
bit better used in smaller Stacks full
Stacks I will have some Philly fiveman
here but uh more more of the shorter
stacks for me focusing on
uh probably the better hitters here I
don’t think I’m going to get to the
bottom of this team or this lineup a
whole lot so I think it’s more like a
like a schwarber Tre Turner type of type
of day for me in smaller
Stacks that all make sense let me ask
you a couple questions you mentioned
obviously not pairing or trying to limit
your pairings of wheeler and woods
Richardson how do you even go about
doing that I honestly don’t know like um
well so what you could do is you could
make say you’re playing 20 teams you
know you could make a rule where they
can’t be in the same lineup you want
completely eliminate that no like I’m
saying like say you’re making 20 teams
you know you can make them in batches of
10 um I think would be the best way to
do it or uh yeah you know some
optimizers let you you know if this guy
is in your lineup then dock the other
guy’s projection so I think that yeah
you’re right so I mean you could just
you know that would kind of be the other
way to do it I just think it’s going to
be like two high owned together so I
think the other way to approach it is to
play more Woods Richardson and you know
just kind of try and hit a lot of
different combos with him and not always
have him paired with his Zach
wheeler yeah like for for 150 you could
you know do two sets of 75 right one of
them you make the rule where you can’t
be them and the other you just let it
run so you do get yeah like I’m not
saying to totally eliminate the pairing
I just think like when I was like
handbuilding some teams that just seem
like a super easy construction that I
think a lot of people will go to yeah
makes total sense to me uh and then the
other question I had so I I normally
don’t play you know on a reasonable size
slate I don’t know five six games or
more I don’t allow hitters against my
pitchers it’s kind of tempting with a
player like ell cruise to maybe make an
exception uh I see you frowning sounds
like that’s something you probably won’t
I like to do it on shorter slates like
I’ll have I think um on three game
slates I think I cut it to two batters
first pitchers um you know I think four
to five I think is one and then two game
slates I allow three just because you
know it’s a two game slate and you have
to play two pitchers um little less
willing to do it on FanDuel where you
only need one one pitcher instead of two
to be
but on large SL I just kind of eliminate
it like I mean even if La hits a bomb um
you know he’s so expensive you know he
probably needs two like if wheeler
dominates to the point where he’s
optimal too so I just think it’s kind of
thin on a larger slate not really my cup
of tea but you know as you said if
there’s a player to do it with you know
it’s a high strikeout batter that has
tons of tons of home run power so ell
definitely fits the bill there and speed
too right because he can yeah I mean
he’ll run on Wheeler you know he could
he runs on
everybody and you know Wheeler’s a
pretty good running matchup so you know
we haven’t even talked about that I mean
but I mean he could score you
know 20 points without scoring a run
feasibly you know it wouldn’t be easy to
do but it’s doable that’s what I’m
saying he’s you know he’s one of the
only guys that can do it him him and
aunia where you know he’s gets a walk
steals second or third and doesn’t score
and Wheeler is just fine but all of a
sudden now he’s got 12 fantasy points
points in the in the first inning right
so um yeah I do think with him
specifically it does make some sense to
to try that and yeah always trying to
you know come up with new strategies
little edges that other people aren’t
thinking about I think that could be one
you could at least consider uh on this
slate with h with their Mr El de Cruz
he’s a he’s a tough paid right now
giving the away that he’s putting up DFS
production let’s go to the next game on
the Slate I think an interesting one
here Boston and and Cleveland we’ve got
Tristan McKenzie on the hill for the
Guardians uh Chase Anderson going for
the Red Sox two I think pretty bad
pitchers uh I did have some hope for
McKenzie coming into the year returning
from pretty much missed all last year
from injury uh to a call one start for
me to get completely off the McKenzie
train and on the other side of it I’m
seeing McKenzie uh I think he’s going to
get some ownership Sab got him projected
around 20 5% I think it’ll come in a
little bit lower than that but I mean
you know the the the numbers or at least
you know the market is kind of buying
into Tristan McKenzie here Boston has
pretty low team total sitting below
three and a half runs so you know and
Mackenzie is pretty cheap at 7700 so I
get why people are looking at McKenzie
obviously that Boston lineup a little
bit depleted although they did get des
and O’Neal back recently who I think
will both be in the lineup tonight or
today and then Willer Abu yeah Alex
mentions that crushing the ball yeah we
do have the the Boston lineup uh de’s no
O’Neal yeah no O’Neal today but McKenzie
has been awful uh if you look at like
even yes the actual results have been
bad I know he pitched uh like his two
okay games were against Oakland and the
white socks the other one was in Seattle
a good strikeout match up and then you
know when he faced the Yankees he gave
up six walks with one strikeout negative
five DraftKings points he hasn’t been
able to throw strikes velocity’s been
down hasn’t been getting any whiffs I
just think he doesn’t have it right now
watching this guy pitch and you know I
wish it was better hitting weather in
Cleveland I wish this Red Sox lineup was
a little bit better but I gotta stack
some against a somewhat chalky Tristan
McKenzie just given my belief in his
current Talent level so I’m I’m
absolutely in on Boston we have a bunch
to them myself uh and then I like the
guardian side too Chase Anderson
definitely a pitcher you want to pick on
so a pretty low total in this game
sitting at 7 and a half runs it’s cool
wind blowing in in Cleveland I get all
that but uh I’m gonna be over the field
on on both of these offenses myself what
about you Bryce what do you see Boston
and
Cleveland uh I’m gonna be under on this
game as a whole hitters and pitchers um
McKenzie probably comes in around 20 25%
I think that’s too high you know his
trile props not even good it’s five and
a half you know under pretty heavily
Juiced you know
7700 you know on a slate when you have a
good 4K picture is a lot less uh you
know appealing to me as opposed to like
a slate where you know you don’t have a
really good cheap option so I’m likely
going to be under on Mackenzie here um
you know as you said it’s really crappy
hitting weather wind’s blowing in it’s
cold I don’t really see myself getting
anything besides like small Stacks or
one-offs here um you know Boston has
some upside batters I you know Durant
and Des are are kind of the two and then
uh AA would be my favorite cheap bat on
the Boston side so there’s your Freeman
stack if you’re looking for one from
Boston and want to get some leverage on
McKenzie but I don’t really see myself
having any interest in FIV mans here
from either team and I will gonna be
under on both hitters and pitchers I
think there’s more appealing games to go
to for both
yeah I get it I think that’s going to be
the approach that that most take though
I’m seeing Boston hitters projected
under 5% own across the board uh yeah
I’ll be I’ll be over on that number I’ll
say this to about McKenzie uh at least
in these last two years obviously they
changed the stolen base rules uh before
last season prior to that it had been
kind of tough to run on him but since
then he’s pitched a grand total of 34
Innings uh in the last two years combin
mind nine steals zero caught steings in
34 Innings against Tristan McKenzie uh
so these Boston guys that have some
speed jiren Durant of course at the top
being the the big one but I think a Bru
can run Hamilton down there uh rafhaela
he’s hidden ninth today but he’s cheap
and probably will steal a base and I
think we could see Boston off the races
here against McKenzie who is walking way
too many guys as well so I’m obviously
higher on on Boston than than Bryce is
and I definitely like the Boston side a
little bit more than the Cleveland side
but I do I will have a fair bit of both
of these offenses for sure no interest
for me in in either pitcher full Fate on
on McKenzie uh I’ll let other people
play a pitcher I think sucks at you know
20% ownership and not even that cheap of
a price point so I guess strong takes
for me there on Boston Cleveland let’s
get to White Soxs and Minnesota next
we’ve already talked a bunch about uh
Simeon Woods Richardson coming in at the
stone minimum 4K pitched really well uh
when he got a chance back on April 13th
against the Tigers got through six
innings in that one five strikeouts
hasn’t been great at the Triple A level
this year but uh you know we saw enough
I think in that start against Detroit to
so he’s a a reasonable arm uh pitching I
don’t think he’s you know some Ace buing
Ace or anything like that but I think
he’s certainly good enough to put up a
decent score against this White Soxs
team at that price point I assume he’s
going to be very popular I don’t know
maybe 40% own something like that and
he’ll go against Mike Soka who has
looked just as bad or even worse than
McKenzie he’s been terrible uh he just
doesn’t really seem to have much of
anything every time I watch him I I wish
I had even more hitters against him than
I sometimes do uh so yeah I like this
twins Squad a little bit here against
Soka not the best hitting weather in
Target Field but that’s kind of a theme
on this show over overall so yeah give
me some twins bats give me a lot of
Simeon Woods Richardson and as usual I
will not be playing many white socks
whatsoever what about you Bryce white
socks
TNS the white socks will go unowned as
they always do um hitting I don’t really
have a ton of interest in them here Soka
don’t really have any interest in as
well uh as you said it’s just there are
so many better spots on this slate uh
moving over to the twins I hitting and
pitching are going to come in pretty
high uh you know their bats are pretty
much free uh you know they have a really
good team total I know it’s not the best
hitting weather but as you said Soka
sucks which is kind of the trump card
there
um I’m likely going to be slightly under
on the twins bats here just because I’m
expecting them to be pretty popular I I
will have a good amount of twins but I’m
not going nuts on them or anything it’s
just like if you want to fit in some of
these like super expensive like Dodgers
or like Kors guys you know
cheap pitching or cheap hitting you need
to find somewhere and the twins are the
best place to find it on on each side
today according to projections I I like
Simeon Woods Richardson here you know 4K
for a pitcher that can get you 20 you
know I don’t think he’s GNA be like
crazy limited on his pitch count or
anything you know even if he gets you
like 15 that’s a really good score for
4K
I you know I I see myself having a
decent amount of him today you know
proba
slightly above the field um I’m hoping
he doesn’t come in as high as 40% but
you know I think 30 to 40 is is very
like the likely range for him I don’t I
don’t think he gets higher than that um
you know it’s still a pretty big slate
so yeah uh I like the twins I you know I
don’t think anyone in the industry is
gonna disagree with you and pick the
white socks like out right here so I
they’re definitely going to carry
ownership I think uh
you know the top of the order kind of
kind of one through six is is where I’m
focusing I don’t love the bottom of the
the twins order you know especially at
home where they could get Limited at
bats and uh I think there’s a pretty big
Talent gap down there so yeah kind of
top of the order twins you you can play
them five mans and do literally whatever
you want um you know you can play them
three mans with uh if you playing with
Richardson you know you can fill out the
rest of your team however you want uh
you know you can get all the expensive
Dodger bats you can get all the
expensive course bats and wheer so uh
that’s why I think they’ll be popular
and uh I’ll have a good amount but I’m
not going crazy on them or
anything yeah the the one thing that
worries we with the twins I absolutely
love their matchup to start the game
against zoka but the twins do pinch hit
about as much as any and they will do so
they’ll do so in the fourth inning if it
you know if it comes down to it if if
there’s a decent spot uh so I mean
problem is all the twins that you want
are the guys who might be pin Shi for K
off Julian lck Kepler all pretty
significant honestly pitchit risks in
this game the White Sox do have two
available lefes out of the pen uh one of
which uh Tanner Banks hasn’t pitched in
three days and can throw sometimes two
innings um and I could see him being the
first guy out of the pen when Soka exits
probably fairly early in this game
so I’m a little worried about that you
know it’s kind of torn on it because I
really do like the matchup against sioka
but uh nothing worse than having your
hitter get removed after two of bats in
the fifth inning so yeah for that reason
I will be a little bit lower I think on
the twins in the field but I do
certainly expect them to do some damage
early might take their I don’t know like
over five first five run line something
like that with the twins because I do
think they’re going to do some damage
here against Soka but am certainly
worried about that Pinch at risk and uh
yeah if you do want to go against the
field today uh I might stack the white
socks on a couple teams because we know
Richardson’s gonna be super popular he’s
still an unproven arm and uh he just get
massive leverage against the field not
going crazy with it but I don’t think
it’s the craziest thing to throw in at
least a couple white sock Stacks in
there I mean they have some power like
sheets and yeah sheats and am menz can
can hit one out uh I think if you’re
doing that it’s better off to do like
smaller like high upside Stacks because
there’s not a lot of batters in this
lineup they have tons of upside you know
I think it’s like favorite three man
would probably be like sheets Eloy and
uh maybe Paul D Jong yeah don’t don’t
mind that he still has some power at the
bottom of the order there yeah she
sheets and uh sheets and Eloy I think
are are the best two by far and then I
would I would agree with you I think
dang comes in third I’ll mix those guys
in on on non Richardson teams let’s get
to the next game on the Slate this one
does have significant weather concern in
Kansas City uh Toronto and uh the Royals
scheduled to play uh but I believe
raining right now in Kansas City and
looks like more thunderstorms on the way
throughout the afternoon uh actually
looks like it’s not raining quite yet
but the rain is coming uh to Kansas City
for sure um pulling up the radar now
yeah I mean it’s it’s going to be risky
it’s going to be kind of a tough call
here I think uh I could see it going
either way uh if the game does Play It’s
Gonna Be Jose buos pitching for the Blue
Jays against Cole Reagan on the other
side I don’t know BR I think it’s gonna
be tough for me to roster either of
these pitchers given the uh the risk of
of rain delay or or
postponement uh and given you know some
of the other I think pretty damn good
pitching options on the Slate so as of
right now I’m kind of leaning just not
playing this game but uh you know it
doesn’t start for what two and a half
hours so we do have some time to monitor
the weather and make a final call um if
it does play I do think Reagan is a is a
pretty strong play he had a rough start
last time out but you know very very
talented pitcher I would expect him to
write the ship don’t mind Brios set that
$9,400 price tag it’s a little little
pricey for him but he’s been good this
year um so yeah I guess talk about what
you’re doing with this game with the
weather and then you know if if it does
play which players are you going to go
to yeah I think this is a game that
people just immediately ex out you know
they see bad weather um you know two
decent pitchers not like great pitchers
uh and two like solid offenses in a low
total game with crappy weather um you
know I think it’s a super easy fade for
a lot of people just because of that if
I think it plays I’m going to have like
minimal amounts of the pitching and the
hitting
uh you know if I think there’s a mid
game delay I think the pitchers are you
know the easiest fade uh you know I’m
not going to spend tons of time here
because you know I don’t think this game
is gonna make make a break to slate
either way like these guys are gonna
come in at you know sub one% so you know
if you have a strong hitting take here
and you think the game plays you know I
think stacking would be kind of
interesting but I don’t love either team
as a stack personally I don’t really see
myself playing this game much and um I’d
have more interest in the pitchers if
you think can get enough out of them um
in terms of game time so you know it’s a
little hard to make the call three hours
in advance right now I’m I’m full fading
this game but you know if the weather
improves uh I’ll probably get some
Reagan to my teams and you know I don’t
hate Brios but as you said there’s
pretty strong pitching options today and
I don’t think it’s a risk that you
necessarily need to take here yeah I
think you could certainly just go ahead
and act out this game like you said that
is what most people are going to do if
the game does start and looks like it’s
got a decent chance to you know to
finish at some point during the day I
will throw in kind of just full stacks
of a couple of them on both sides just
because you’re like you said I mean you
might get these guys 1% or less some of
them and it’s baseball anything can
happen they both have reasonable
offenses uh and but it will be you know
I’m not playing any one-offs anything
like that from this game if I’m playing
it it’s uh it’s the full sta you might
as well just get in there and and hope
it plays and obviously uh you you never
know you might get an outlier outcome
that that nobody else has so that’s
Toronto Kansas City again if you’re
playing just a few lineups I think the
the smart thing to do is just not worry
about it move on to the other seven
games on this slate let’s get to Houston
and Chicago next Justin Verlander
pitching for the Astros making his
second start of the Year Javier Assad
who’s been pretty good here in the early
going for the Cubs will go up against
Houston uh 50 degrees some winds blowing
in at Wrigley so definitely a good
pitching environment uh and I do think
we’ll see some ownership especially I
believe on the Verlander side of this
equation I do think he might come in as
what maybe the fourth highest own third
or fourth highest own pitchers it’s
gonna be wether Richardson I think
clearly the the two highest own and then
maybe McKenzie Verlander
next uh I’m probably not playing much
Justin Verlander here Bryce I just I
think his skills are in Decline I mean
you know that’s what happens when you
get to 41 42 years old however old he is
didn’t have quite the same strikeout
stuff last year missed all of spring
with the I think it was a shoulder that
was bothering him a little bit um and
yeah 78 pitches last time out against
Washington he pitched pretty well in
that start but uh he’s a guy I’ll be I
think probably lower on a lot in general
this year as he kind of Ages um and so I
get it I get targeting this game due to
the the the prime pitching conditions
but I don’t love a chalk Justin
berlander on this slate or probably most
times throughout the season and then I
don’t really I know Houston hasn’t been
quite as good this year but I don’t like
really picking on them either so this
one I’m somewhat low on it’s hard to
love the hitting here in this weather as
well so won’t be a ton of Houston and
Chicago for me what about you uh between
the Cubs and the Astros here yeah uh I
don’t really love old guys in general uh
you know in any sport I think uh I think
they’re some of the easiest fades in
general um that being said you know I am
a wrigly wind believer and you know I
I’m super wind sensitive so you know I
don’t not really gonna play many hitters
in this game I think if you are playing
it it would be the Houston side um you
know these guys have some power that
they can hit home runs anywhere even if
the wind’s going in but not my favorite
play um I’m likely to be under on this
game as a whole you know I think
berlander will probably come in
around got I would say 10 to 15% for me
I’m not full fading him but you know I’m
definitely not going to be taking an
over stance here on him Assad uh I’ll
have a bit of Assad you know it’s a
seven game slate and you know if the KY
game doesn’t play that gets knocked down
so yeah you know I I think there’s some
upside there you know especially if uh
Woods Richardson doesn’t get it done
here um you know I think some of these
like mid-tier pitchers will you know the
builds will go more towards them than
like the super high-end pitching with
like wheeler in the super low end with
wood Richardson that we were talking
about earlier so I for that reason I
will have some Assad don’t don’t love
the matchup for him don’t like picking
on Houston and uh you know even even in
Wrigley wind I don’t I don’t see myself
going to you know either of these guys
much I don’t really see myself getting a
lot of Leverage off of off of Verlander
either um you know I think the Cubs
lineup took a pretty big hit without
Bellinger he’s having a really good
season and um you know I just I just
don’t necessarily see the upside against
him today I think if I was taking
someone it would be more like a Nico
Herer type um than anyone else uh you
know a guy that can like
you know get it done on the base pass as
well so not my favorite play though yeah
if you uh if you switched the direction
of the wind and warmed it up 10 degrees
I would be going with a lot of cser but
uh not the case so yeah I’m with you
gonna be a game that I’m pretty low on
in general and uh yeah I’ll be I don’t
know if I’ll full fade uh Verlander but
I’m definitely be way under the field I
just don’t feel super good about him in
General at the moment uh let’s keep it
moving just a couple more games to talk
about yeah three more games to talk
about Seattle Texas the next one on the
list uh Lefty Andrew Heeney going for
the Texas Rangers he’s a kind of a
Jackel and hide type of pitcher uh
certainly has his good outings uh where
he can rack up strikeouts and he’ll have
some real bad ones too where he gets the
long ball can get wild he’s a good
pitcher I think to stack against in
general including today I kind of like
this Mariners team they’ve got some
right-handed power Julio Rodriguez has
come alive a little bit guys like hanar
Garver uh Ty France all those guys I
think makes for pretty strong plays here
against Andrew Heeney so I’m absolutely
in on Seattle particularly the top half
of the lineup and then Luis Caso
pitching for the
Mariners uh he got off to a slow start
but has really turned it around in these
last two pitched well against the Cubs
and it dominated the Rockies and Co
field seven shutout Innings nine
strikeouts in that one um and he should
come in I think pretty low owned here I
uh I played some Bryce Miller yesterday
due to the the ownership he was like 4%
own I thought that was way too low
didn’t quite work out didn’t have his
best outing but I I did like the play
and I like the uh the Castillo play too
here he’ll be higher own than that but I
still think a little bit low for his
talent level despite a relatively tough
mat match up against the Rangers I do
like Castillo here won’t be playing too
many Rangers bats myself so yeah Mariner
side both hitting and pitching is what
I’m looking at what about you
Bryce I like this game for pitching and
hitting you know as you said you get two
really high strikeout pitchers um but
you know are prone to blow up outings
especially Heeney so you know I’ve kind
of you know said I’m gonna be under on a
lot of these games these are the games
that I plan to get over on uh Castillo
should be my biggest buy a pitcher today
uh I’m seeing him around 15% um and if
anything I think that might be a little
high I’m looking to get it about double
the field on Castillo um you know kind
of invert like him and Verlander’s
ownership was kind of like what I was
think in my head so like 10 to 15% on
berlander and then um you know 25 to
like 35 on Castillo is kind of like
where I had come into the show thinking
i’ thinking I’ll end up on them so uh I
think has you know he’s turned things
around um I think he has a lot of
strikeout upside here he does have some
downside so like I’m not going to be
eliminating Ranger Stacks here um you
know they do have a lot of upside and
you know they hit home runs and they
they have some guys who can steal bases
too so I will have some Texas I’ll have
more Seattle um I’m gonna have some
heene too I you know I think he’s a
super high upside pitcher obviously like
if Woods Richardson fails you know you
get he to have a good game in 6K that
gives you insane leverage so you know I
expect him to be buy and Seattle to be
by I like the Seattle offense a good
amount here I think they come in uh
not as high owned as they should be so I
think it’s a pretty good leverage spot
um you know these next two games are are
going to carry the the weight for for
hitting ownership here I think Soh gon
to be over on pretty much everything in
in this game I think my biggest buy here
will be Castillo
second will be Seattle offense third
will be Heeney and then there will be
like a gap down to Texas all likely be
around the field on them uh just because
you know while I do like Castillo I
could see uh could see Texas having a
Breakout game uh I mean they’re just a
really solid offense and I want some
exposure to them on this
slate yeah makes total sense to me we’re
both pretty high on this game in general
between the Rangers and the Mariners uh
we did to just get the Texas lineup
looks pretty normal outside of Jonah
Heim but it’s a it’s a scary lineup and
they’re kind of coming alive they got
Nathaniel lowback Evan Carter started to
hit a little bit adise Garcia absolutely
crushing it so yeah I think playing both
sides Castillo and getting at least a
little bit of exposure to the Rangers
makes sense to me let’s get to the final
two games on this slate uh please hit
the like button if you haven’t yet done
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monthly payment let’s get to the final
two games here we’ve got San Diego and
Colorado another K field game which
looked like it was gonna erupt last
night uh I think the what the Padres get
four first inning runs and then it was
kind of petered out from there I was
very in on the Padre so that was
disappointing we’ve seen course f
I haven’t looked up the numbers I assume
it’s gone under the total I don’t know
70% of the time almost every slate yeah
there’s been a couple slates but yeah
it’s disappointing to start the year
yeah it’s been annoying um but another
big total sitting at 11 Padres is
expected to score about six runs
Colorado about five uh two bad
right-handed pitchers on the hill we got
Randy Baska is pitching for the Padres
dakot Dakota Hudson for the
Rockies and uh I I’ll be I’ll be taking
the bait again price and going back to
some Kors field on the Slate seems like
you’re uh regrettably going to agree
with me and you know just keep uh keep
banging our head against the wall right
yeah I mean Coors isn’t going to be dead
the rest of the season it’s some of the
better hitting weather that Colorado’s
seen so
far here I do question the upside of the
Padres in general uh you know they just
don’t have a ton of guys who are going
to go out and hit home runs but
you know it’s about the the best matchup
you can ask for Dakota Hudson and Randy
Vasquez are two dust balls I want
nothing to do with them um I think my
biggest buy hitting is likely going to
be the rocky side as as ugly as that is
to say I’m seeing them coming in super
super under owned compared to what I
think their upside is um you know I
think the Rockies still have significant
upside um McMahon Diaz some of these
guys are are pretty decent home run
hitters um you know compared to you know
the Rockies you know they suck but I
think it’s about the best spot that you
can get them in they’re going to be low
owned you have money to spend on them
they’re not that cheap which I like
because it’s going to get people off of
them so I’m gonna be buying both sides
of this game um I’ll I’ll have more
Padres than Rockies but like ownership
comparatively I I’ll have more like
Leverage on the Rockies I assume don’t
want anything to do with pitching here
uh tatis is the top overall hitter on
the Slate for me um I think Jake Cronin
worth is is too cheap you know he’s
4.4k uh you know in baseball that
doesn’t really matter quite as much but
you know playing cash games and whatnot
all all the cash charts up after the
show uh he seems like a core play for me
there and then um yeah I don’t have any
strong takes on like how to best stack
the Padre’s lineup all the way through I
you know I typically try and get a
decent amount of like front and back
guys but you know I’m playing 150 teams
I’ll have it stacked a decent amount of
ways Rocky Rocky’s lineup you know I I
like to hire upside guys here like a guy
like Brenton Doyle to me always goes
like like under owned in these spots
because he’s expensive he doesn’t hit
near the top of the order you know
you’re going to get him at you know sub
five percent I assume so I think uh I
think guys guys like him uh McMahon Diaz
uh you know not like I’m excluding
Blackman and whatnot but you know I just
kind of like the higher upside bats a
little bit more to pick out specific
ones yeah uh agree with all that the one
guy I’ll throw in there Hunter Goodman
the Rocky Top one of their top prospects
big Power guy 2500 should be should be
hitting ninth I think today but i’ would
be surprised if he wasn’t in the lineup
uh and he
hits uh 34 home runs
in uh
what 115 something like that 105 Minor
League games he’s already got seven on
the year in Triple A uh this season uh
70 grade robw power over at fangraph so
the dude can absolutely Mash uh love
that yeah
yeah into my teams bury him all the way
down there in the lineup so we get him a
little bit lower out but yeah Hunter
Goodman going to be uh one of my highest
own players today no question about it
assuming he does indeed make the lineup
I don’t have a ton more to add I mean
just I’m I’m playing this game on this
slate you can easily afford it with the
pitching and uh yeah we’ll be hoping
maybe we get a maybe we get an eruption
spot in K field where it seems like
we’re due for one at this point uh all
right we’ll do the last game on the
Slate we’ll do stacks pitchers home run
calls that fun stuff uh once we get
through the Dodgers and and the
Washington Nationals uh interesting
pitching match up here Yamamoto pitching
for the Dodgers Kenzie Gore pitching for
the
Nationals uh Gore remains one of my kind
of favorite breakout pitchers this year
his stuff way way up across the board he
is coming off of a little bit of rough
outing against the Astros but that’s one
of the best teams against left-handed
pitchers in general uh prior to that he
had a monster game against the A’s uh
obviously the two kind of opposite
matchups there but 11 strikeouts in that
one he kind of showed you the upside
that he has and this Dodgers team
obviously it’s not a team that we are
picking on but their numbers against
lefties on the year
are kind of average across the board uh
makes some sense I mean two of their
better hitters obviously ton Freeman get
neutralized a little bit by the Lefty
Lefty matchup uh I’m seeing Gore
projected out I mean he’s not going to
be 1% owned but that’s what Sabre has me
right now he is going to be very very
low owned I’m in on some Mackenzie Gore
at that number he’s got upside I think
even against the Dodgers team it is
possible to we
see uh you know a prominent Dodger get a
rest in this one I don’t believe we have
their lineup but it is a day game and I
don’t think like B soan Freeman I don’t
think they’ve missed a game yet so I
wouldn’t be surprised if you know they
give uh especially Otani or Freddy
Freeman the Lefty Lefty one of those
guys hits out wouldn’t surprise me so
I’m in on Gore here I’m not going to go
crazy with it but I will be way over the
field uh on that low ownership number
and I like Yamamoto too I know you know
the overall numbers on the season don’t
look that great but he’s still being
held back by that South Korea start
which I think at this point I just kind
of removing that from the equation when
evaluating Yamamoto he’s also faced
really low strikeout upside teams Mets
Padres Cubs his last three matchups all
three of those teams do a good job of
putting the ball in play H but he’s
struck out over 30% of batters in each
of those three games now he gets a
Washington team that uh is a pretty good
matchup not perfect but a pretty good
matchup for Yamamoto up to 99 pitches
he’s actually increased his pitch count
in each of its five starts 43 68 8 91
and a 999 last timeout got through six
Innings his longest start of the year so
far so I think Yamamoto might be a guy
who’s kind of coming into his Prime and
maybe isn’t quite viewed as the ace that
I think he is Bry so I think we could
potentially get you know people are
gonna play Yamamoto but I think he might
be a little bit under owned here and I
you know there’s enough value on the
Slate to to play Yamamoto and and Zack
wether together if you want to something
I’ll certainly be doing a decent amount
so I like the pitching here more than
the hitting obviously the Dodger bats
are are always in play against anybody
but uh I do have enough faith in Gore to
mostly look elsewhere uh but I do really
like both these pitchers just kind of in
general what about you Bryce Dodgers and
Nationals yeah Gore I agree with you
long term you know it’s pretty much the
worst spot he can get uh you know it
obviously helps if you know one of these
Dodgers lefties sits today um which we
might not know before the Slate but I’m
assuming that we get the lineups there’s
a chance that we don’t Gore is probably
be between five and five and 10% own for
me um I think that’ll make him a solid
buy here not a guy I’m going nuts on but
you know I think he does have he does
have the upside um that you’re looking
for so uh I think it’s a decent leverage
play here likely gonna be over on
Dodgers bats too uh you know I think
it’s
like these guys just have so much upside
every time they take the field I think
like it’s I’m not going to like full
paade the Dodgers or anything I’m gonna
I’m gonna have some Dodgers here
um I don’t sabersim has the Dodgers like
super high owned I think Kors comes in
way higher own than the Dodgers um
they’re just way more expensive and have
way worse team total
so use that use that how you may uh you
know I’m not going nuts on the Dodgers
here but you know they’re I think
they’re still a good fiveman stack here
I think they’re good as one-offs you
know especially like a mookie bets type
of guy
um I I like the right Anders against
Gore a lot more but like you can’t
discount Otani if he’s in there against
Lefty you guy can hit a home run against
anyone so dude guy in right now yeah he
he really is um it would help Gordon
obviously if he somehow didn’t make the
lineup as you said I don’t think him or
Freeman have gotten a good day of rest
so seems like a good spot to do it uh
hitting
wise Nats I mean you know they’ve shown
more upside this year than I kind of
penciled them in for but
look how many lefties y Yamoto is going
to face here um you know I think if
you’re playing them it would be like the
lefties like Abrams Gallow would be like
my favorite ones uh you know as one-offs
but I’m likely gonna be over on Yamamoto
here um he he kind of falls into like
the Castillo bin for me in terms of guys
who like are gonna go overlooked for
like a Wheeler or Verlander type of guy
when you know I think they should be
like much closer know ownership to them
uh probably going to be
around 20 to 25% Yem Moto here which I
think will be solidly ahead of the field
I see him coming in around 10% so kind
of taking the Castillo approach uh want
to be want to be double the field on
these guys uh I think they have a lot of
upside and you know it’s a pretty good
way to get yourself unique and still be
able to you know play some of these bats
that we want to
play yeah I think I think it’s a sneaky
good spot for Yamamoto uh obviously is
very F small sample size here but
Yamamoto on the season stri striking out
38% of lefties versus 27% rties and we
know Nationals gonna run out a ton of
left-handed bats including guys like
Gallow who have massive strikeout rates
uh I will say yeah CJ Abrams like he’s
not obviously quite in the ell De La
Cruz range but he’s not far behind with
the power speed combo guys there’s just
not that many of them in MLB who have
the opportunity to break a slate with
power and speed uh each and every time
out so he would be my favorite nationals
bat but very high on Yamamoto here and
I’ll be well over the field on him no
question about that uh that’s all eight
games might be a seven game slate
obviously with the with the weather in
KC uh let’s do top uh overall stacks and
then contrarian Stacks as we normally do
uh I will go first
uh and this is probably stealing yours
but my favorite stack today is the
Rockies uh they also I think will be at
least a little bit contrarian uh but I
think they’re gonna have a good day here
against Randy VZ don’t forget about
Hunter Goodman down in that hopefully in
the nine hole in in uh contrarian
stack um yeah I don’t know this probably
won’t even be that contrarian either but
I will go with the Mariners against the
Lefty Andrew Heeney they’ll get some
ownership for sure but I really do like
them think they got some big Power
upside against Heeney over to UB Bryon
might has taking two of your favorites
but favorite stack favorite contrarian
stack yeah I mean we can we can double
up on them um I’m gonna consider the
Rockies contrarian here uh you know I
think they come in way lower own I mean
favorite stack for me is the Padres uh
it’s a quarters day for me and uh you
know that’s why I kind of want to get
different at pitching I think uh I think
y Yamamoto and Castillo are two really
good ways to get different of pitching
so like those uh really like your
Mariners call as well
um so yeah I think uh I think the
Phillies are worth a look here too
against Nick Martinez I know it’s not
the best hitting weather in Cincy but
it’s still good home run ballpark
regardless of
that yeah for sure uh most important
pitcher roughly to find is the guy you
think you’ll be most over the field on
I’ll actually give two here from the
same game uh I’m not going to have a ton
of McKenzie goore but uh given his
projected ownership I will be well over
the field on him and then Yamamoto
sounds like we’re both in on Yamamoto I
think like I said a sneaky good matchup
for him I’m a big believer in his long
term and I think he’s maybe has his
first true like slate breaking
performance against this Nationals team
looks like he’ll be not low own but uh
lower in my opinion than he should be so
Gore and Yamamoto for me what about you
br
um I’ll go Castillo and Yamamoto talked
them up a good amount um definitely with
you on Yamamoto and U you know I think
uh I think we both agree on Castillo as
well here so yeah really like the spot
for both uh I think Yamoto is safer
obviously but uh yeah Castillo’s recent
performance coupled with strikeout
upside is really nice to me I I know
it’s a tough matchup but you know that’s
why he’s going to come on Lower own than
he should yeah and we’ll both have funny
wheeler and Simeon wood Richardson too
but but so the field that’s why we’re
that’s why we’re listing these other
guys that we’re going to have mixed in
there in a specific amount of our
lineups uh home run call uh I gotta go
with my guy hunter Goodman for the
Rockies again don’t have that lineup yet
I would be pretty surprised if he wasn’t
in it big Power guy top prospect and
certainly a good match up in CO’s field
against Randy Vasquez and the Padres
home run call from you Bryce
I think catcher is kind of hard to fill
out today I’ll go Elias Diaz uh really
like the the rocky power bats
today all right uh and then favorite
overall hitter on the
Slate uh this one an easy one for me
jiren Duran leading off for the Red Sox
against Tristan McKenzie uh again I
talked a lot about just thinking
McKenzie doesn’t quite have it right now
Duran running wild this season you can
certainly steel bases against McKenzie
think we get a couple steals in the
first inning we’ll be Off to the Races
maybe we’ll get the poor man’s home run
walk couple steals a run and uh just as
good as going yards so jiren Duran uh my
favorite overall hitter on this slate
what about you Bryce favorite hitter on
the Slate tough for me to get away from
tatis uh you know he his upside uh you
know you’re talking about you know guys
who can hit home runs and steel bases he
definitely falls into that category uh
just tough tough for me to fade him on
like a main team today uh you know even
if you don’t like the Padre’s because of
you know what could be limited upside in
terms of power uh he plays well as a
oneoff he plays well in three mans um I
do like the dur Cole I love the I love
the drive cheat stol in base
angles it’s a good one today I think
jiren Durant will be surprised if he’s
not off for the races if he gets the
chance uh but that’ll do it for this
show we do appreciate you guys watching
as always hit the like button on your
way out if you haven’t yet done so and
uh fund day of sports with MLB NBA NFL
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uh this show will be back same time or
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tomorrow I believe with stats and Steve
Boon but that’ll do it for today good
luck to everybody for third in long I’m
draft Jeep we’re out of here
[Music]
