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good evening ladies and gentlemen
welcome to calls calls this is the 2024
American Express data dive show still a
little bit under the weather but no
fears as I am
double uh with the water this evening
and we are here for all of your
questions and all of the intense data
that you will need to dominate and hit
your Wagers optim your DFS lineups uh a
very unique tournament with a three
course Roa and several field Changers
already so we’ll be getting into those
uh but we going to try to save as much
of of my voice as I can so let’s get
into it all statistics provided tonight
and every night R from fantasy
national.com is the best tool out there
for your money it’s going to make you a
much smarter golf Gambler much better
golf DFS player go check out fantasy
national.com you won’t regret it in the
description to the video there are links
to all of the social media first off my
ex and Instagram where I
normally normally Place
research uh for the week’s tournament um
was not able to do that today uh fantasy
National was having a little bit of some
issues uh Gathering the data uh for the
Sony so do not fear I will have that
research out tomorrow when fantasy
National has the Sony up to date but if
you want to see the weekly research that
I do on the PGA tour give me a follow
over at your preferred social media site
X is also where I place my weekly
betting cards and weekly uh player
exposures or uh the player exposures for
all of the DFS contests I play that
those come out every Wednesday evening
after the the DFS tactics show um so if
you want to see the weekly Wagers and my
player exposure give me a follow over
there lastly for social media gabes
handle is in the description he writes a
very good article called The Fringe it’s
a very good read yeah it’s a great way
to start your week of preparation and uh
he continually updates you throughout
the week with his uh own version of
recent form and course history and if
you’re a subscriber to his article
you’re going to be able to join us every
Wednesday evening in his substack chat
as we continue the DFS talk over there
uh so you’re not going to want to miss
out subscribing to his article is free
to do by the way so go show show gave
some support follow him over on social
media and subscribe to his article and
lastly we’re live chat is open want to
hear from you all uh have you made any
Wagers uh did you fire off any any
players uh for the American Express I
certainly fired off uh a name or two
that I liked that I thought their number
was just way too high uh what do you
think plays well here at the American
Express who are you targeting all that
good stuff so let’s dig into the weed to
the data for the 2024 American Express
and we’re going to start as we always do
for a day to dive show on a Monday
evening over at windfinder and get a
feel for what the early forecast
projection is and it appears to be
somewhat uh chilly or cool I would think
this time of the year in Coachella
Valley but no wind to speak of at least
you know 48 hours to even 60 hours
uh ahead of the tournament I mean gusts
reaching 5 mes an hour throughout the
majority of the tournament so at least
as of right now we’re not looking at any
wind in terms of uh potential forecast
or wind uh windy filter or anything like
that in fantasy National just looks like
a um a chillier week in Coachella Val
but nothing to do with wind so with that
we’re going to move to Fantasy
National and as I mentioned there were
several field changes
already Denny McCarthy Scott piery KR
Kramer hickcock Marty do or Zing do
Austin Smotherman HRI norlander Sheamus
power and James Han are not playing this
week at the American
Express the two biggest names I would
think Denny McCarthy and Sheamus power
even though Sheamus power is listed as a
tea time on fantasy National he is not
playing he is not playing so we’ll do a
little bit of a recap and we got a lot
of detail uh to look at this evening so
let me un or show all instead of just
the favorites we talked a little bit
last night how uh this is just an easy
tournament these three courses are the
second third and fourth easiest courses
on the PJ tour the only other course
that’s easier in relation to par is
capoa the century so the first um the
first filter we’re going to look at
let’s just look at easy rounds to
par so in the past calendar year our top
performers when around has been easy
Alex norin Eric Cole Xander Scotty
sheffler Doug gim Adam hadwin Chris Kirk
Patrick Klay JT Poston and Stephan
joerger something else we know about is
that all three of these courses are
short with the stadium course the
longest at at
7,187 or so yards uh I believe it’s the
Nicholas tournament course Nicholas or
lint is is just over 7,000 all of them
are par 7 twos so very very short
courses here at PJ West so on short
courses top performers in 2023 were
Patrick Canley Scotty sheffler Eric Cole
Chris Kirk Xander Sam Burns Justin
Thomas sunj Taylor Montgomery and JT
Poston again Denny McCarthy is starred
he is not
playing okay um the only other thing
things that I would like to do in terms
of review we’re going to be able to
cover um with uh with some prior leader
boards and such um so let’s just cover
the historic conditions again just very
very quickly as I talked about it’s just
very very easy tournament every single
round played easy last
year
2022 um you had a couple of rounds that
were average in terms of difficulty even
a difficult round at the Nicholas
tournament course when the wind picked
up a little bit and then um the fourth
round The Stadium Course played to
average when it was considered very
windy but mostly you’re going to have
rounds that are easy these are very very
easy courses of course we are on Bermuda
but we have poet trivialis overseed so
I’ll make sure to have those courses
highlight when we talk about
putting green speeds have always been
listed at average I don’t think we’re
going to have enough um enough of a
sample size to limit it to poet
trivialis and average speed greens so
we’re just going to be looking at poet
trivialis over
seeds
um yeah um not going to do too much with
the Pete die
architect there is there is an argument
to look at it but since the tournament
is only going to be played two rounds at
most uh at the Pete die
course just I just don’t feel
comfortable putting a lot of emphasis
into that so let’s go ahead and look at
these prior leader boards and we’re
going to start with The Strokes gained
from last year with John ROMs
win and as we talked about last night
this is a ball striking
course uh do note that all Strokes
gained data is is from The Stadium
Course only there is no shot Link at
litaa there is no shot Link at the
Nicholas tournament course this is all
from uh the stadium kche but even so you
know we look at the top 15 here every
single player is positive in terms of
approach uh it is the main shot type
here in in general in golf and not to be
overlooked is the off the t as well um
off the te plays a decent Factor as well
we saw that in the course break down
last
night um really Tom Kim was about the
only one that was really poor in off the
te the other three that were negative in
terms of off the te were under
one um putting as well like your winner
John ROM was really bad on the Green
he just made up for it with the ball
striking if we look at it a look at 2022
Hudson Swafford
win we look at Strokes gained going to
the top 21 here I guess just for ties
again a lot in
approach see only really if we kind of
maybe if we limit it to the top
13 I mean only one negative in
approaching again just a big facet of
this
Tournament of this course as you would
think with a Pete D
design so and then uh the off the te as
well you had Brian Harmon who was
essentially filed average was slightly
negative getting rounded to zero Hudson
sword was slightly negative off the te
only didn’t mcarthy was very poor off
the tea with a with a solid finish but
as you see of your top
13 um Hudson sword really put the
Daylights out in
2022 Dy McCarthy really puts well if we
sort you know off the tea you
had decent amount of correlation here
other than Cameron Champ and chessen
Hadley who missed the
cut but your
approach pretty strong correlation other
than probably K Le
up
here but good good correlation with the
approach
putting couple of pretty high
miscuts your winner was
second in
putting a little bit all over the place
in 2022 if we go to last
year’s I meant to do this when we were
on 2023 is but if we go to last year’s
we sort on it you see how how much more
correlating the off the te is here a
couple of six or A6 I don’t know why
fantasy National has Maddie and Matia
Schmid is the same person but 6th 11th
fifth you know third your winner was
fairly high up here so much more
correlating off the te last year the
approach much more the same except for
Lucas Glover who missed the cut didn’t
do a lot else well last year but SMY of
mid leing finish from br Ste in a sixth
the third 11th a
first couple more top 10 Cameron young
so you see the
approach very very correlating and then
putting not to be out done you got your
cut makers up
here um and then like we saw in 2022
Hudson sford your winner was second in
the tournament on putting so there will
be a little bit of putting to factor in
but I am mainly focused on the ball
striking this week most mostly focused
on the approach and off the
tea so with that I’ll get this prepped
for the next page view your top off the
te
players uh with no filters just your top
off the tea players in the field this
week Scotty sheffler Patrick Klay
Carrick kigo Kevin Yu Doug gim Keith
Mitchell Johnny Vegas Tyler Duncan
Stephan joerger and sewu
Kim there is a little bit of an argument
to be made about using the easy to par
filter and I believe I used the easy to
par filter for off the tea last year in
my mixed condition model which we’ll
take a look at later in the
show so off your top off the tea players
when around as easy in 2023 Scotty
sheffler Cameron Champ Tyler Duncan G
kigo Kevin Yu Doug gim call Callum Taran
Sam Stevens Stephen joerger and Bo
Hustler as your top off the players when
around was
easy all right we’ll remove that
filter I usually don’t use a filter for
approach I just want to see the top
Strokes gain approach players so our top
Strokes gain approach players Scotty
sheffler excuse me Xander Sam Ryder Adam
shank Mark hubard Alex SMY Eric Cole
Aaron Ry Patrick Klay and chz reevy so
give these guys especially your these
top Strokes gained approach players give
these guys a pretty considerable boost
in your considerations or in your lineup
preparations or with your
Wagers
as with a Pete die course um it’s an
emphasis on ball striking you just have
to be committed to the shots that you
want to hit p d is famous for playing
with eyelines and and sight and all that
so just got to be got to be good with
your irons to succeed at a Pete die
course then lastly for putting or in
least in Strokes gained we’ll look at
putting I’m going to have
to find the
individual courses so we’re going to be
looking at
uh Bermuda base poet trivialis overseed
is that is what is at the American
Express first one is harbort toown host
of the RBC
Heritage again sorry I’m just trying not
to have a coughing fit I’ve been under
the weather for the past 3 days I’m
going to throw on throw in a cough drop
as
well we are at harbort toown
um inisbrook
host of
the
valpar we
have Quil Hollow host
of
the Wells Fargo TPC San
Antonio host of
the
Valero Texas open
TPC San
Antonio TPC
sass the host of The
Players and TBC Scottdale host of the
Waste Management Phoenix Open those six
courses along with the stadium course
which I actually probably forgot to
highlight last night so these seven
courses
are the
courses that
have um poet trivialis overseed and I’m
needing
to make a note so I don’t forget
whenever I make my mixed condition model
to include the stadium course
okay so these seven
courses with poet trivialis overse I’m
going to bring this all the way out to
2019 just to get enough rounds
to make it statistically significant for
the
players you see someone like Tyler
McCumber only has 14 but most of the
players in the field have
36 probably
more but you know a good what
80% have at least 10 Rounds which is
going to be uh significant enough to to
make some kind of inference on their
putting ability on poet trivialis so on
poet trivialis your top
Putters in the last 36 rounds have been
Matt coocher Sam Burns Sam Ryder Taylor
Montgomery Daniel Berger Billy H horel
Alex noren Justin Su Adam hadwin and
Chad Ramy and we’re going to go to the
fairways and greens page
view and we got got some
conflicting um bit of data last night
when at least in the course
breakdown at Fantasy National driving
accuracy was lower here than the average
T event but the distance was also
lower and then we went into Microsoft
Excel and saw that the distance was more
important than the average full field
course so we just got a lot of
conflicting
information we’re going to try to figure
out and and discern what’s important and
what’s not so last
year John ROMs win will highlight the
top
15 in fact we could go all the way down
to the top 25 not a single person was
negative in terms of greens that makes a
lot of sense as these greens are
small they are they’re small generally
difficult to hit uh especially if you’re
out of
position not or only one person was
negative in Fairways only three were
negative in
distance so right off the bat we get a
pretty good inclination here and a good
solid example of how off the te matters
distance and
accuracy especially with the
irons if we sort
you know
sixth some middling finishes middling
the clunker you have a miscut from
seawa top 15 from sheffler not a whole
lot in terms of upper leaderboard
success if we were to sort on the
leaderboard again we just had you had
players that were that were
positive but not by huge amounts you
know sheffler and mty Schmid
were the two standouts at least high up
on the leaderboard in terms of
distance but not a whole lot of
correlation here if we sort on the
distance Fairways
gained uh again a lot a lot of the same
we have a we have several miscuts pretty
high up
here do have top
15 top 10 top 20
nothing Stellar though in terms
of direct
correlation and then you come to the
greens you have 41st from Tyler Duncan
that’s not great fifth first an 18th 6th
11th you know you get some Mis cuts and
then another six looks like greens would
be
it looks like greens would definitely be
it at least from last year we look at
2022 and Fairways and
greens again looking at the top
performers not a whole lot here in terms
of
distance Paul Baron sunjay wiam Clark
higher in terms of the distance but
they’re
not Elite in terms of the
finishes yeah look here I mean look at
all this I mean the m Cuts all the Mis
Cuts prevalent up here at the top of the
leaderboard in
distance not probably where you’re
wanting to look
at Fairways much more correlating you do
have some miscuts fairly high from
Wesley Bryant and Kelly craft but you
have a top 15 a
third middling the clunker from vinon
the top
25 so the fairways a little bit higher
in terms
of um in terms of
correlation 20 in 2022 especially with
regards to distance now Hudson Swafford
you know didn’t hit a whole lot of
Fairways he was putting the Daylights
out 20122 if we look at
greens much more it’s been the most
correlating of these stats yes you have
a couple of high Miss Cuts here which
you don’t like to see but you have a
third
top 25 a top 15 a top 10 another
third looking like greens would be would
be the main statistic I am going to go
to
2021
no 20 see the the thing is
2021 was
so uh different for the MX coming out of
the Ridiculousness that 2020 was see it
only had two courses this was the full
three course Roa I usually don’t like
going back this
far but again much more the same when
Andrew Landry won your top 13 not a
single one negative in
Greens second sixth 14th 21st 4th 21st
1st 3rd a lot of correlation
there Fairways were decent but you also
had some Mis Cuts what you didn’t have
with the
greens and then
distance much more your cut
making so for me I’m seeing a whole lot
into the greens and
regulation and then more so the
fairways than the distance but I think
it’s just off the te based in
general we saw that in the course
breakdown so moving to this year’s
field your top greens and regul gained
players no filters just your top greens
and regulation gain players Scotty
sheffler Andrew putam Tyler Duncan
Patrick kley Martin La Sam Ryder Doug
gim Davis Thompson Joseph bramlet and
Shane
Lowry you can make an argument to look
at um greens gain when it’s easy so I’ll
run through that quickly but I’m
probably more so oh crap uh I’m probably
going to have to back this up cuz I need
to I forgot to go back to 2023 so let’s
try this
again with no
filter since or in 2023 or in the last
36
rounds yeah this list changed a little
bit your top greens and regulation game
players Scotty sheffler Andrew putam
Tyler Duncan Patrick kentley Martin lard
Sam Ryder Doug gim Johnny Vegas Davis
Thompson and Joseph
bramlet it’s apologies I needed to
change the timeline you can make an
argument to look at easy since all three
of these courses are
easy so your top greens and regulation
game players when arounds easy Adam
shank Doug gim Alex noren Tyler Duncan
Scotty sheffler Aaron Ry Chris Kirk
Carson young Andrew putham and B
Hustler but what I think is going to be
the filter that I use I’m going to look
at short courses these short course
greens and regulation
gained is generally when you have a
short course you have different types of
layouts where even though it’s a short
course you’re still hitting you know mid
to longer irons in some of the holes due
to the way the hole is laid out Force
layups and things of that nature and
that’s kind of where I’m
leaning um at least you know on a Monday
night on how I’m going to go with my
mixed condition model so when a course
is short defined as less than 7200 yards
on fantasy
National your top greens and regulation
gained players Hayden Buckley Shane
Lowry Scotty sheffler Chris Kirk Joseph
bramlet JT Poston Brandon woo Aaron Ry
OE batia and Tom Kim okay get this
prepped for the scoring and it’s pretty
darn easy what we’re going to be looking
at in terms of
scoring it’s all about the
birdies so you see even Davis Thompson
had
a little bit in terms of the negative in
Bird’s gained but look at the
sheer volume or
numbers 7 and
1/2 8 9 and 1/2 5 and 1/2 a little bit
further down here s and A2 you got 10 in
these
birdies whereas in the Bogies four
four five I mean honestly that 4.9 might
lead it does
and you got good finishers up here I
mean obviously you’re going to have to
avoid Bogies to to climb the the
leaderboard but the sheer amount of
volume is in the birdies game 18th 6th
6th first 16th 11th 26 Still you know
just outside the top 25 11th 3rd 6th
fifth I mean just huge amounts of
correlation on the bird’s game and
honestly it’s not a whole lot into the
Eagles you do have have Eagles here at
the MX but it’s not a be allend all like
Kevin Yu Brandon woo these guys gained a
lot of eagles but you know they missed
the cut now Davis Thompson Xander Taylor
Montgomery they gained a lot of eagles
and we in the top five so it definitely
can be a benefit but that’s why we’re
going to look at birdies are better
gained as opposed to Eagles by
themselves or birdies by
themselves birdies are better gained and
we can see that from here and just you
know just for emphasis cuz it’s all it’s
the
same you got decent performances five
and a half 4 and
A2 but nothing that matches you know
Hudson swaer 10 and A2 eight 6 and 1/2 7
and 1/2 7 and
1/2 we sort on it year leader led the
category in Bird’s gain 1 3rd 11th 14th
SE uh excuse me 6th 2 third sixth it’s
just massive amounts of
correlation so let me get this prep for
the next page view pretty easy what
we’re going to be looking at we’re going
to be looking at birdies are better
gained and I always like to match a
scoring filter with a scoring metric so
when a round is easy relative to par our
top birdies are better gained players in
2023 Eric Cole Taylor Montgomery Xander
Garrick higo JT Poston Scotty Sheffer OE
batia sunj Peter malady and Alex
noren so pretty simple it’s about the
only way I’m going to be looking at the
birdies are better
gained this week especially since we’re
going to be looking seemingly at greens
and regulation as well give these guys a
big considerable boost along with your
Strokes gain approach players give these
guys a pretty considerable
boost when determining Wagers or your
lineups um these guys are going to they
they tend to go low when it’s easy and
you’re going to have to do that to
contend at the
MX okay now we move to proximity and
there were a lot of questions that I had
around proximity when we went to the
initial research
show so the most prevalent approach shot
distance is from 150 to
175 but we also have at least in
relation to the average T event
a lot from 75 to 100 and we also saw in
Microsoft Excel that 75 to 100 was the
only range that was positive against
other full field courses I would not
think proximity would be or total
proximity would be a big deal because of
how small these greens are but always
good to be thorough in
check
so um
yeah I mean the top 15 from last year
you got some decent numbers in the total
procs but look at the 75 to
100 not bad I mean really you got
Garrick higo who was pretty poor from
that
range John ROM was good from further
away
um cut making which is fine a couple of
miscuts Lucas Glover Wesley Bryan
someone high up here but nothing that’s
jumps off the page as as you know strong
or direct correlation 75 to
100 I was going to say A Little Bit
Stronger it might be a little bit
stronger Adam long high Miss cup but you
have a
third couple of
six really it’s kind of kind of mediocre
Bland
in terms
of um
correlation nothing nothing here either
really not a whole lot in the 150 to 175
again not a whole lot
here not a whole lot
here
um cut making you had a six from Wills
alur two years ago but just more your
good performances nothing
Stellar 75 to 100 you had a couple
miscuts really high up here see it was
all or nothing in the 75 to 100 two
years ago 9th 11th 3rd 6th 14th 13th
surrounded by a bunch of
miscuts and 150 and
175 not a whole lot so honestly I don’t
see much with
proximity this week I really don’t I
think think it would be the 75 to
100 but there’s not a whole lot of shots
that come from that range only
10% at least at the stadium
course come from that
range and we don’t have shot link for
linta or the Nicholas tournament
course how much do we want to
put you know our eggs into that basket I
wouldn’t feel comfortable doing
that so I think if there is a range I
think you’d want to look at the 75 to
100 which would make some sense since
all of these courses are short but I
just don’t think I’m I’m have the
confidence to do
that so let’s go ahead and just jump
straight to the par
3s and we saw last night that these
actually have a decent weight behind
them unlike the first two tournaments of
the year the century and the Sony these
carry some weight with them the three
hardest holes at the stadium course at
PJ West are par 3s we can look at that
in the
scorecard second hardest par 36
223 the hardest par 31 13th 195 it’s
hardest hole third hardest hole is par
31 17th the is Island Green at PJ
West three hardest holes at PJ West
are par 3s so if you play these
even I can’t even say well if you play
him to par you’re probably gaining some
shots on the
field but we’ll take a look
here um probably not a certain
range would be my
guess I mean 54th from Russell Knox
but right under him third six six top 20
second you know a clunker of a made cut
miscut
sixth very strong other than Russell
Knox and Paul Haley I guess but pretty
darn strong correlation
there
um not a whole lot
there no correlation there
Your Leader missed the cut you don’t
like to see
that so looking like just par 3s would
be my guess look at
2022 again 1.6 from your leader but Tom
hogy with a five four and a half from
mulinari five and a half from Zack
Johnson a little further down
14th so 14 22nd second 6 gets a little
bit worse after
that
but yeah I mean your part 3es are going
to have some some decent weight to it
this week or at least it’ll have some
weight as opposed to 0% like it had at
the Sony in the century I don’t think
there is a specific range of of par
3 because we look at the course
breakdown just very quickly had two 150
to
75 2 one and
one uh the Nicholas tournament course
mirrored that exactly two one and one so
really you have a four two and a
two linta I don’t I don’t remember I’ll
have to cheat and look at that one very
quickly we’re at a 4 two and a two yeah
and then 1 from 150 to 175 so that’s
five and then three from 2 to 225 so we
have a five two and a five so across all
three courses we have five at least on
the scorecard five from 150 to 175 two
from 175 to 200 five from 200 to
225 and like at linta third hardest hole
par three uh the fifth hardest hole par
three fourth so the
third fourth and fifth hardest holes at
linta are par 3es the majority of the
difficulty of these of these courses are
in the par 3es you have a fifth at the
Nicholas tournament course you have a
fifth the
hardest
seventh and
third so all four of the part 3es at the
Nicholas tournament course
are in the top third in difficulty so
part 3es are going to are going to
be a pretty big deal I’m actually going
to leave it on the Nicholas tournament
course for when we go to par fours and
fives so with no direct um Range to
consider at least it doesn’t appears to
your top par three performers in the
field this week Eric Cole Carson young
Mark hover Andrew putam Justin Su
Grayson Sig Nico etaria Sam Burns
Vincent Wy and Charlie Hoffman those are
your top par three
performers move to par
fours now the majority of the par fours
at the stadium course are 350 to 4 and
400 to
450 um and 450 to 5 I
think I said I was going to leave it on
the Nicholas tournament course and then
now I’m forgetting the stadium courses
course
breakdown okay so one and then three
three and
three okay so one driveable three three
and
three the Nicholas tournament
course has three four and three so we
have a
1 6
76 and finally with linta three all okay
four four and two so one 10
11
8 yeah so 1 10 118
so one driveable across all three
courses 10 from 350 to
4 11 from 400 to 450 8 from 450 to
5 and you see they do contribute a
decent amount in terms of of who’s going
to play well not as much as the part
fives as we’ll see if there was a
range see from last year it wasn’t the
354 look at these miscuts very high up
here so it wasn’t
that more so here but I mean you still
have a couple of high Miss Cuts but your
winner was
third excuse me in the
category 450 to 5 A Little Bit Stronger
the winter was a little bit further down
but doesn’t appear to be a whole lot or
again nothing that jumps off the page
immediately
mediately 2022 par
fors G sword on it 14th first third 6
14th it’s a strong correlation much more
350 to4 in
2022 and Martin trainer was a clunker a
couple of
miscuts but your winner was second in
that range you had a top 10 in that
range yeah okay 400 to
450 you know good performances cut
making Patrick Reed was
clunker but
decent yeah so again just kind of looks
like par fours in
general just kind of looks like par
fours in general so your top par 4
performers in the field this week Scotty
sheffler B Hustler Patrick kley JT
Poston Xander Ryan Moore Alex noren Adam
hadwin Min mle and Tom Kim lastly par
fives
uh and we go back to of course breakdown
here very quickly
so uh for linta all four of your par FS
are from 500 to 550 so all four are very
short at
linta Nicholas tournament course
you have three from 500 to 550 and then
one from 550 to 6 so you got seven and
one essentially and then for the stadium
of course it’s a little bit more spread
out you have one two and then this one I
can tell you is 600 on the
scorecard so you can actually probably
put that in this bucket here if you
wanted to you had seven and one so this
would be 8 and
four just to make math easy so eight
from 500 to 550 across all three courses
four from 550 to 6 three of those four
are at the stadium
course
so you’re going to have a lot of short
par fives and if we sort
on that I mean look at some of these
numbers four and a half 5 and A2 nine
and a half from
Xander five from Robbie
Shelton I mean dean bermas was a clunker
but third 2 6th 11th 18th top 25 your
winner top
11 looking at just the 500 to 550 range
you third second then a Mis cut 18th
first a lot lot of big numbers here in
the par FS 500
550 lot lot less
correlating there
2022 par fives oh well there we
go again sword on it 25th 9th 3rd 6th
clunker from Sam Ridder 10th 14th your
winner was a little bit further down as
well 500
550 much more miscuts up here than I
would have liked to have
seen but you have a bunch of miscuts up
here too so doesn’t look like there is a
specific range at least from the prior
leader boards so our top power five
performers in the field this
week at the
AMX Aaron Ry Stephan Jagger Davis
Thompson Sky Sheffer Tom Kim sunj
Patrick Hanley wendam Clark mty Schmid
and Eric Van
royan all right with that let’s go look
at some
very very uh detailed data
around uh the stadium course so last
night we took a look at the stadium
course compared to other full field or
the you know against other full field
courses on the PGA tour tonight let’s
just look at the data for the stadium
course so scroll down to the stadium
course the American Express you can see
all the shot type or the the shot type
that matters the most Strokes gain
approach now you do have a little bit of
a high outlier here but even so it’s
still uh contributing it the major or a
significant portion of The Strokes
gained for shot types here so we’re
looking at a lot of approach see how
much the off a te is outweighing the
around the
green so we’re not going to be factoring
in too much around the green but the off
has been pretty darn consistent year
over-year at the MX it’s just been a
pretty
consistent uh metric we look into the
driving
and greens Fairways and
greens distance we kind of saw this
throughout the leaderboards it’s been
really chaotic in terms of consistency
didn’t appear to contribute too much uh
in terms of upper leaderboard
success instead we’re looking at greens
which is which is a
3.3 just very quickly greens says it’s
5% more important
so I could I can believe
that so looking at
greens birdies and Bogies I mean this is
this might be one of the one of the
widest
margins between Bird’s gained and
Bogey’s avoided on the PJ tour or at
least
course-wise one of the biggest
margins between birdies and
Bogies I can’t confirm that I have to go
line by line but a very significant gap
between birdies gained and Bogies
avoided so it’s just all about the
birdies here all about the birdies but
where we’re going to gain a lot of
insight Around The Stadium Course in
particular let’s look at these specific
lengths of par 3es fours and fives and
figure out if there is a certain range
that we want to focus on or at least
where the majority of The Strokes game
total comes in now in the part 3es
remember across all three courses we
have five two and five five on the
scorecard two on the scorecard in this
range five on the scorecard there makes
sense that you see the majority of The
Strokes gained come in the links with
five of those holes so doesn’t look like
we’re going to be focused on any
specific range of part three since this
is making up May maybe
40% of The Strokes gain total in the par
3s so just looking like par 3es in total
par
fours kind of the same you do have um
you do have the 400 450 that’s higher
than the others by a decent amount but
it’s still not making up
again it’s about 40% of the
total it’s about 40% of the
total
so and it’s actually lost in
importance over the recent years where
the 350 to Fours have
gained
so yeah I I just I just see par fors in
general
again
[Music]
um in terms of par
fours just total par fours and then par
fives if there was a range you would
have thought it was the 500 to 550 and
you see it’s you know
250% more important than the 550 to
6 this
is 5/8 what’s
5/8 uh 57
7% no
62% so maybe we look at just the 500 550
par fivs
maybe um CU you got a couple of lower
outliers you know way back they’ve
actually gained
importance past three years so maybe we
look at 500 to 550 par FS the shorter
par FS since
you know we have 75% of the power FS on
the three courses fall into this
range
okay okay all right let’s uh let’s take
a look at last year’s mixed condition
model see how it fared results wise what
metrics I used see
where um where we can
improve um and all that so I usually
like looking at you know my top
20 now I you know I had the winner so I
give myself a tab bit of credit even if
it was John ROM and you’re fairly
obvious he still has to be in the top 20
so getting a little credit there but I
had a lot of
miscuts one two three four five six
seven eight of my top 20 missed the cut
that is that is not good I’m looking for
four you know four to five about 20 20
to
25% of my top 20 to miss the cut so I’m
doubling that that is not
acceptable I had you know strong
finishes up here of those who made the
cut you know Jason day was a top 20 it
was fairly
unique
um let’s see seu cam at 10% was a top 25
so I mean there was a little bit going
on decent here but overall this is not a
good results base
or a results um focused mixed condition
model I would definitely not be happy if
my uh mixed condition model this year
produced these results so what did I
look at well I had 20% birdies are
better gained when it was easy to par
that makes a lot of sense I’m probably
thinking about the same I’m definitely
using birdies are better game I’m
definitely using easy to par and you
know I was going to put more into bird
you know maybe even make it
25% so that makes a lot of sense 15%
approach makes a whole lot of sense as
well 15% in Par 3 that might be a touch
heavy that might be a touch heavy but
again just emphasis on the par 3s I did
look at just the 500 to 550 power
5 15% there all right 10% off the tea
when it’s
easy
yeah 10% greens when it’s on short
courses yeah now this is this is an area
we can we definitely want to
reconsider 5% driving distance when it’s
easy like we just saw that driving
distance wasn’t that much of a
factor in the prior leaderboards and
they just weren’t at five % par 4 is 5%
par 4S 4450 so unfortunately I have a
lot here that I seemingly am going to
use again or I’m along the same lines of
thought my only my the only thing I’m
I’m seeing as a potential change I cut
off my data
sample to only go back to the foret of
the prior year so 2020 2 forwarding that
to the
2023 uh Century Tournament of Champions
or the Sony I should have said whereas
this year I’ll be going all the way back
to the to the full calendar year and
then the last 36 rounds that’s
probably that might help some of this
out a little bit and that’s going to be
that’s going to change the data you know
pretty
significantly but as far as metrics and
and
um filters percentages along a lot of
the same lines in thought process so how
did they do predictability wise if we
were to sort on or yeah if we were to
sort on the results so John R is line
one um Davis Thompson line two and go
all the way down I think I did this to
the top 25 since it was just a nice
round number uh for the ties see B your
better game was a 56 that’s that’s okay
it’s not great certainly better than the
approach the par 3s were really bad and
so that’s why it’s another reason why
I’m thinking the part 3es were you know
overemphasized a little bit going 15%
I’m thinking 10% probably but I think
part 3es are going to have a pretty
solid say and who plays well this week
now look at these par fives 500 to 550
these are this was the strongest metric
in terms of predictability for the
players who finish in the top 25 the
only metric that was under a 50 lower
the number the better off the was fine
greens were fine distance again really
really
bad distance was bad par fours and the
4450 was bad too so um probably not
going to separate
out any particular length of par 4 just
probably looking at total par fours
lower the percentage in the par 3s but I
do think it’s probably correct to look
at the 500 to 550 power
fivs the approach maybe it was just a
weir weird
year I still think approach I me we’ve
seen it all week last night in the uh um
in the initial research and then tonight
in the data dive
approaches one of the strongest factors
here along with birdies are better
so definitely a lot to improve on from
last year’s mixed condition model but
enough uh that I think will that we’ll
be able to there’s enough things that we
can
change among here that I think I think
we’ll we’ll be able to do that all right
this last portion will be fairly quick
this my voice is
going
um going out towards the end of the show
but taking a look at the early look
file this is performance specifically at
the American Express the past 5 years
let’s take a look at the players who
have performed the best at these various
metrics give us a good idea who does
does well specifically at the
MX with
these uh important
factors so your top approach players you
know there’s Daniel
berer Alex SMY Tony fenal has been very
good with his iron play at the stadium
course Doug gim to be expected chis Kirk
kley zal Taurus
There’s Tom hogy Cam Davis three for
four uh lonto Griffin sewu Kim uh former
Champion
2021 so there’s some of your top
approach
Players let’s take a look at your top
Putters so your top Putters at the
stadium course the past five years
alonto Griffin one for two seu Kim four
for four average finish inside the top
20 bid Martins two for three Adam hadwin
four for four average finish inside the
top 20 Sun Jay’s five for five average
finish inside the top
15 hrk norlander three for three Andrew
Putnams five for five average finish
inside the top
25 Jason day two for two JT Poston four
for five Cam Davis three for
four there’s
fenale pretty darn good on these greens
so
okay
um yeah let’s take a look at
Greens Greens in regulation
gained
um there’s fale
again Lee Hodes one for two Adam
hadwin Patrick kley Scotty Sheffer three
for four SMY brim zalatoris all varing
degrees of success but two for
two now Scott Stallings is only one for
four but he’s hit a bunch of greens my
guess is he just hadn’t puted worth a
damn uh that’ be correct he just hadn’t
putt worth a damn
um let’s
see Roger Sloan three for four Andrew
putam five for five C Kim four for four
Cam Davis three for
four all right let’s take a look at
Bird’s gained and then the par fives
that’s probably going to be it as I am
wearing down very quickly so top birdies
gained players past five
years here at the American
Express Tony fenale Roger Sloan Patrick
kley SE w
EVR Adam hadwin
sunj Jason day Andrew
putam Monto Griffin Cam Davis you see
all these players with Elite finishes
Andor former
Champions very high up here in the
birdies
gain uh if you’re going to go on the
sober narrative that Chris Kirk and
and uh Grayson Murray that Trend they’ve
set the first two weeks then Harrison
indicot is your man this week um Poston
and
sheffler burns three for four Ricky
Fowler three for four a little bit
further down
here been decent in the birdies gain all
right lastly let’s take a look at
the par five 500 to
550
and your top performers on par FES that
range here at the MX
Burger Scotty sheffler there’s JT Poston
four for
five the Hodes varying degrees of
success there Bronson bergon three for
four very
interesting bazan Hoots two for
two Sam Burns
putam
Davis Roger Sloan popped several
times
interesting all right that’s going to do
it for the show this evening again
apologies I’m still pretty under the
weather try not
to have a coughing
fit all over you all uh what am I trying
to do here sort all on average
finish that’s going to do it for the
show this evening uh want to thank
everybody for tuning in bearing with me
as I try to get through the show and
give you all the stats and the detail
that you need as you prepare for your
lineups and your Wagers this week thanks
for tuning in watching listening
supporting the channel by liking the
videos commenting subscribing I always
appreciate it reminder that the research
that normally comes out on Mondays Will
Come Out Tomorrow hopefully fantasy
National will have the data fixed for
the Sony I’ll be able to post that
research for you all on social media
tomorrow so be on the lookout for that
thanks again for all the support for all
the Wagers you made so far this week for
the American Express for all the Wagers
you’re thinking about making this week
for the American Express until I see you
Wednesday night for the DFS tactic show
may all your bets be profitable
