Golf journalist, broadcaster and betting expert, Dave Tindall joins James Buttler to look ahead to this week’s golf action.
The Late Tee Time Podcast is sponsored by SwitchWaterSupplier.com – switching made simple.
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for
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and a very good morning late Tea Time
poters Around the World this is just a
flying visit to you this Thursday uh
morning my uh grocery shopping is about
10 minutes away so we need to get this
done and Dusty before he rings the
doorbell DT how are you yeah good thank
you up nice and early yeah and so we’ve
got the valpar to look forward to today
haven’t we um the valpar championship
I’ve got the the top end of the
leaderboard going across the bottom of
the screen it’s under chaff who came so
close last week 15-2 Justus in Thomas 14
Sam Burns 14s Jordan SMI 18s Brian
Harman again in contention last week 22
to1 Tony finel and Cameron young are 28
to1 and the rest are bigger DT we leave
it as late as possible we’ve left it
very late this week and for you to get
your gargantuan golfing brain Around The
World of Golf and where has that led us
to this week yes I think my theory at
the start of the week was that um I
don’t really want to be backing uh the
favorites because it it falls a bit
funny with this one in the SC
you just had Bay Hill and Sor grass two
big events massive events the Arnold pal
and the players and then you’ve got the
Masters coming up in three
weeksy so yeah so you kind of caught a
little bit I think between looking back
or feeling the effects of the last two
weeks and looking ahead of you one of
the elite players so I didn’t really
look at those much so I’ve come with a
couple of kind of slightly random
Outsider names um the first one being
going down a familiar path of uh the
local guy okay and um we do have one
this week um he was born on the 18th
green was he just about yes um 17th
actually um he he’s got a bit of
attention this week and he I guess if
you’ve been following the golf closely
you might have picked up on him um in
the past few weeks Jimmy
Stanger okay um I think it’s Stanger
pretty sure you don’t say Stanger or St
J um but Jimmy Stanger so he uh is a guy
who um came in for interview why are
they interviewing him then and it turns
out um he’s the absolute local guy he
used to come to this tournament when he
was seven and eight year years old and
sort of help do little volunteer carry
placards and stuff and so he’s got all
these emotional connections with it um
which sometimes can and he actually said
I dreamt of playing in this tournament
and sometimes maybe that can overwhelm
somebody in the fact that he’s
fulfilling this lifelong dream but he
has actually played in it in it before
when he was an amateur and played in
2017 and 18 he didn’t make the cut in
either of those but sh 71 in round one
on the most recent that was six years
ago isn’t it blind me 2018 was six years
ago amazing but he he kind of said he
just wasn’t ready then it was kind of
nice to play in it his game wasn’t ready
now he’s come through the corn fery tour
um you know he’s looking like a bit of a
player now and if you look at some of
his results this season he’s got 14th at
the American Express 38th in Phoenix
35th at the cognizant classic third in
Puerto Rico which was an excellent
effort and then almost just as
impressive 35th in the PLAYERS
Championship that was a real new sort of
ground for him playing against the real
top boys closed with a 69 there so this
is a far weaker field than that so Jimmy
Stanger um it’s basically picky Market I
think I think you can look at him in All
categories first round leader outright
top top 10 top 20 that kind of thing
he’s 200 to one best price on the
outrights and obviously the rest of the
prices are pretty decent as a result of
that as well so uh Jimmy Stang St I’m
gonna call him Stanger Stanger Stanger I
found a little clip online where he was
putting and someone said Jimmy Stanger
so he’s 100 to one um with bet 365 to be
the first round leader 200 to one sorry
150 to1 um to win the thing so uh um
yeah I mean he came in from 200 to1 to
150 to one just as you were speaking
there you go but yeah top 20 top 20 all
sort all all those sort of markets I I
think he’s
um I mean it is a it’s quite a funny
tournament this one it is it is good if
you know the call she sort of tends to
play well that’s shown by the last um in
the last five years you’ve had of last
five additions you’ve had two repeat
winners Paul Casey won this back to back
Sam Burns won it back to back so I think
he must know this course ever so well
Jimmy Stanger yeah so it’sit a bit of a
quirky course it’s a par 71 with five
par 3es it’s not very typical of Florida
it’s more sort of undulating more more
kind of between the trees so yeah
thought he was an interesting one this
week he’s getting close to my grocery
delivery
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indeed thank you very much to
switchwatch entering the street um but I
will bring up the graphics back onto the
screen for you and but pick number two
DT okay I’m GNA go with um a guy I don’t
know if you remember we we picked him
out at the cognizant classic Max graser
man do you remember that name I do
indeed yeah one we not sure how we
pronounce his name yeah grman griman um
but he he was the local guy again at the
cognizant he was massive odds at that
time and for a lot of that week he was
in a really nice position he was um he
opened 7066 shot 69 in round three I
thought he’s definitely going to land
some sort of decent kind of top 20 top
30 here and he just faded a bit at the
end to finished 47th I think we might
have even put him up as a top 40 back so
I thought he did pretty well there um in
front of his very home fans um if I put
you on screen on your own are you able
to sort for four minutes on this I can
yes you going now I I am yeah
okay wonder what he’s picked there he
goes um yeah what will James have got
for his grocery delivery that’s the main
topic of debate this week so yeah Max
grasman uh they did really well in that
event at the cognizant classic where
he’d grown up and had all the uh family
connections and then he went to Puerto
Rico which was the event held opposite
Bay Hill and finished 15th which was
another good effort started with a 65 uh
then went 69
770 so he’s had a real confidence boost
in the last couple of weeks or yeah last
two events at least Max graan uh puted
really well in Puerto Rico was fifth for
putting aage and then
how I get to him this week I’m combining
him with um a new feature that they’ve
got on the Tor tips website I don’t know
if any of you use that I’ve always used
it as my kind of database um they’ve got
a new feature called Tor tips
probabilities um I mean I could give you
the explanation it’s a little bit
complicated I’ll give you this basic
theory of it um it says the TT win
probability is displayed of the result
of a Monte car simulation of each round
of a tournament so there’s that element
and then he comes up with this um Theory
uh called The Kelly
Criterion this is all instructive isn’t
it the Kelly Criterion is a measure of
the edge of each player’s odds the Kelly
Criterion calculates the optimal
percentage of a bank roll to bet on a
player at the best odds so it’s it’s
kind of saying how much you should
invest on someone who’s who’s got an
edge compared to their overall chances
and the actual odds that they are um so
I won’t bog you down in too much more of
that theory but basically what it does
it puts a little percentage figure next
to some of the players in the field um
and Max grman is one of them so he’s
basically his odds are generous to what
his true chances are according to these
Monte Carlo simulation all these um
numbers that are going on behind the
scenes I’m sure there’s some buffins out
there could describe it a bit better um
but it’s quite interesting that Max gr
when he’s got the so he a Florida boy
he’s got this T tips probabilities Edge
and and I’m mentioning it because they
are logging the results quite um
detailed and they are showing a really
good profit on this Market in the
PLAYERS Championship they had a lot of
success on the top 20 Market I think
Maverick
MCN was highlight as one where um his
true odds um were far different
to what his actual odds were and he
played really nicely didn’t he did he
finish ninth I think and um say so he
could have had top 10 as well but his
top 20 ODS were were really generous
according to these
calculations uh so it is working I think
you end up maybe backing quite a few
each week but if you if you take them
all but I’m just going to strip it down
to matx grman this week to add to his
credentials anyway which as I say were
that good performance at the cognizant
classic 47th
15th in Puerto Rico where he was uh top
five for putting average at the
Cognizant just looking at some of his
numbers he was pretty hot short game he
was 10th around the green so he’s a guy
who’s quite well um in recent events got
a decent little record in Florida um the
Sun Coast Classic as well on the co fery
so he’s an outsider he’s James was the
one with the odds uh yeah he’s best to
one okay so I was looking at load of
numbers I didn’t see a r here so um to
125 to one somewhere in that region
depending on the the places yeah so I’d
back him definitely top 20 and stuff
like that first round leader all all the
kind of markets that you can so it’s two
kind of strange names to go with
literally almost literally strange name
was stange names so um Jimmy Stanger and
Max grayman two players who probably new
on the radar but you played them in
these side markets um I think the scope
for some uh for some kind of unusual um
returns there CU so they’re not the the
big guys are they and I think this is a
week to be looking to the margins so
hopefully fingers crossed so grman and
Stanger the picks that go on to the late
T Time Podcast betting slip this week
and my driver the um grocery driver
can’t find them my front door so I’ve
come back so didn’t leave you alone to
say goodbye to everybody basically
because I need to go and help him now
find my front door to be my who’s in and
but DT as always thank you very much for
your uh your thoughts and insights into
the golf this coming week um gamble
responsibly everybody this has been a
Sports Broadcast media production uh and
we’ll see you around about the same time
next week me and DT always back with you
either Wednesday or a Thursday as we go
through the uh the golf season so be
good to see you again next week good
luck with all your your bets gamble
responsibly and we will see you then
cheers
everybody
always gamble responsibly visit
begambleaware.org for more
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