2024 RBC Heritage BEST BETS & PICKS! | The Early Wedge

Eric Cohen is joined by Sia Nejad and Patrick McDonald to break down all of the best bets and picks for The 2024 RBC Heritage!

0:00 Intro
1:00 Masters Reaction
8:25 DFS Picks
13:30 First Round Leader
16:50 Tournament Matchups
25:40 Finishing Positions
34:20 Outright Winner
40:45 Longshot Picks

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[Music]
welcome to the early web present Ed by
bmgm I am your host Derek Cohen AKA EC
make sure to like this video and if you
are not already subscribe to the
Sportsline YouTube page so many good
things including we have the host of one
of the programs that is pretty much
dominates the Sportsline uh YouTube feed
so we’ll talk more about that as we go
along but let’s bring in the stars of
the show for the RBC Heritage preview
show we have the host of the early Edge
every Monday through Friday at 10: a.m.
eastern one see aad one of the best golf
on the planet and one of the smartest
golf mines that you will ever find who
will probably take more of my money
either this week or another week it’s
one Patrick McDonald from CBS Sports
gentlemen uh great to have you here
great to be on with you once again just
a quick thought of each Patrick I’ll
start with you from last week’s Masters
we knew Scotty was the person to beat
did anything about what we saw surprise
you uh I would say kind of how he how he
got it done right it was a tournament
defined by a short game I would say for
for 60 the first 65 holes or first 64
holes or whatever the math is escaping
me uh but outside the second n on Sunday
his short game got got the job done and
he kind of coasted with his B+ a minus
game and when he needed to put his foot
on on the gas he did and he ran away
with it see did we learn a lesson from a
live betting perspective that if it’s if
there’s nine holes to go and Scotty
sheffler is right up top I mean we saw
what happened with stepen jger the other
week where he got
but I would say nine times out of 10
should we just bet Scotty and take our
money at that point it’s interesting
because when he’s like tied or he’s in a
scenario where there’s a few other
players I think the answer is like an
auto yes but the thing is the other
players that were in contention ludvig
uh Colin Mora and Max hom like you know
it’s not like it was a situation where
it was like a Steph joerger for example
so I mean I think the answer to that is
is a pretty quick yes but I we could see
a scenario where one of those three
ended up winning the Masters and not
Scotty the difference is Scotty I mean
Patrick said it it sounds very like
narrativ like he put his foot on the gas
it’s like very cliche well he didn’t
literally put his foot on the gas but he
clearly has a switch a gear that he goes
into that some of these golfers like
aandra schafle for example who we’ve
been talking about in that exact context
can’t seem to find and and like I I I
think that that there is an IT factor
that some of these competitors have
across all sports and we saw it really
really on display at the Masters was in
the back nine yeah but also when you
look at Patrick you look at the Bon head
DEC decisions that some of these guys
made I mean I morawa trying to get too
cute with a bunker shot on nine ludvig
uh trying to take a shot what was that
uh 11 and he goes in the water I mean at
some point was it just the threat of
Scotty was it ner I mean what what gets
these guys can you explain that I I
think it was really on nine I honestly
think it was the second shot that got
Colin trying to get too aggressive uh
with that one you can’t miss left to
that green with that PIN and then from
there he was kind of just in jail and
tried to hit a perfect bunker shot and
made double uh ludvig probably a little
bit of inexperience firing at that pin
uh you know feeling himself obviously
after the first nine he had and and just
hitting the wrong shot at the wrong time
but for Scotty it’s just all about
discipline and patience he understands
that you’re not going to win The Masters
around Amen Corner you’re probably going
to lose it though think about 2020 two
Cameron Smith he lost the Masters on
number 12 when he hit in the water it
was kind of a pretty similar round and
pretty similar situation this year all
right we’ll start with our story lines
for the RBC Heritage there at in Hilton
Head Island South Carolina looks like a
beautiful place Patrick I assume you’ll
be there I’m guessing no I’m too tired I
I mean my uh my financial advisor is
kind of begging me to get out there my
uh my big money people with RBC but uh I
am not going this week all right well a
few guys that are going well you and and
Victor hin and Hideki Matti are not
going but see we’re looking at a few
players to possibly bounce back this
week tell me about your storyline well
what I think is really interesting and
this is something we and I should say I
highlight a lot in terms of players who
are in the Superstar
status they can Flash it anytime and I’m
just very curious like Patrick kentley
Max hom Colin morawa they have been
pretty bad all of 2024 and then at
Augusta like they really like we we we
saw Colin and Max kind of competing down
the stretch and by the way Patrick Klay
who we talked about as sort of like a
long shot DFS play I talked about at the
end of the show last week I mean he
finished 22nd it wasn’t great but I mean
he was kind of like near the
conversation I don’t think a lot of
people expected him to be so what I’m
really interested in here in this full
not I shouldn’t say full field but in
this very talented field where we’ve got
everybody other than the live guys
Hideki and Victor havland like are those
guys back for 20 24 or was that just
kind of a flash in the pan I kind of
lean towards all three of them are going
to start to play better the the entirety
of the rest of this calendar year but I
think it’s really interesting to keep an
eye on all three and and I do think all
three of them I would say in the order
of Klay morawa and H have a chance to
win the RBC Heritage well there was one
guy that’s on my do not bet list who I
wanted to take this week actually a
couple guys we’ll talk about that later
in the show I’m gonna give my storyline
second and and I guess I I guess I’ll
turn this to you seea what’s scares you
most about betting Scotty sheffo this
week as a as a huge favorite is it the
threat of a withdrawal or the
postmasters
letdown I think it’s a combination of
things listen I’m I’m looking for an
excuse or several excuses to fade a guy
that’s plus 400 I did the same thing uh
last week at the Masters and frankly I
don’t regret it I mean I I think that
field was so talented that I think plus
400 was too short I still think it was
too short looking at it in the rearview
mirror but the bottom line is yeah I
guess there is a slight threat that his
wife might may go in labor I mean I
don’t think it’s actually going to
happen
um but that’s on his mind for sure and
it is a possibility and there is
probably a masters let down now I don’t
think Scotty Sheffer is that type that
really has those sort of it’s not his
personality type to kind of let down and
let go and and shift down if you will uh
with that said it’s still a talented
field and plus 400 is too short so
that’s why I’m not betting him okay fair
enough now Patrick as far as betting
this tournament now I’m doing it a
little bit differently and we’ll talk
about that later in the show for
outrights but you think that maybe this
is the week that some of these guys are
gonna get Scotty
no yeah so I was asked the question
yesterday with the topic in mind the
Scotty slam right could he win the
career Grand Slam and I said I think the
biggest hurdle is going to be the PGA
Championship being a new father having
new uh variables introduced into his
life and all this stuff and I think this
is probably the best chance for some of
these big names like a Rory like a Klay
like a Kamar Kawa to kind of catch him
not like sort of sleeping not really but
like if there’s ever going to be a let
down for Scotty sheffler you would think
it’s the week after the Masters where he
flies home before flying to Hilton Head
so he has that extra travel he has his
wife on his mind he has a potential new
child on his mind and he has that huge
emotional high of last week so if
there’s ever a chance for these guys to
get Scotty sheffler on a golf course he
hasn’t played a ton you would think it
is this week but then again it’s Scotty
and he’s the best player in the world by
far so by you got to weigh those too
yeah I mean this it’s unbelievable what
he’s done in the last month one1
t21 I mean that is and the three
tournaments that he’s won have been you
know $20 million plus purses it’s
absolutely wild all right time for DFS
I’m gonna sit out this week we’re gonna
let the professionals go to work here
we’re GNA start with UC I actually love
your card here uh but we’re gonna talk
about your fade first because this guy
just finished second at the Masters and
now your fade ludig what what’s going on
here yeah I don’t feel comfortable
fading ludvig but the reality is he’s
really popular and we’re getting his
stock at the highest possible price when
it comes to DFS probably in the betting
Market too at least as it stands now
like versus historically and and again
from a ownership standpoint he’s he’s
just going to be relatively High own now
now keep in mind when you’re looking at
ownership numbers to the extent any of
you are like this is a case where we
only have about 70 golfers so so you are
going to see elevated ownership but guys
like Ludi guys like Xander uh because of
obvious reasons these guys have elevated
ownership and and I’m just happy to
Pivot off of a stock being really high
so I’m going to Pivot off of Oar and
I’ll probably at the top I’ll probably
be looking at guys like Klay or
zalatoris who’s who’s much further down
and listen zalatoris has had problems
with the putter over the last few but
the three and four I should say four
tournaments prior to that he was gaining
with the putter in a pretty significant
way so I think he can Rebound with the
putter but the ball striking and the
approach play and likely the greens in
regulation I mean he’s checking all of
those boxes and I just think he’s too
cheap what’s really cool is that because
he hasn’t really flashed lately his
ownership isn’t going to be as high as
some of those other names I just
mentioned and that’s particularly
surprising knowing that his price is a
lot lower than some of those big-time
names so I think it’s a perfect time to
play zot Torres I’d say the same about
Shane Lowry who was unbelievable on
approach last week so good best in the
field he lost over seven strokes with
the putter I mean it was it was hurtful
watching him ladies and gentlemen I mean
it truly was because I hit every single
one of my finishing positions right
except for the Shane Lowry one I was
four for five in finishing positions I
gave an extra one over the weekend
Xander to top 10 and and that one hit to
12 as well so I mean you could say five
out of six but I lost three out of four
of my head-to-head matchups two of them
were Shane Lowry related so the only
finishing position I lost Shane Lowry
top 20 and two of the three
head-to-heads that I lost were Shane
Lowry involved he was such a joke with
the putter I don’t want to say he was
like not even trying but he wasn’t even
scaring the cup like it wasn’t close he
was never close he was losing like three
Strokes A Day post Thursday it was
unbelievable with all of that said the
ball striking is there and I do think a
guy like Shane Lowry we’ve seen it can
absolutely flash with the putters
history here isn’t bad either so I I
really like him at at at 8500 and keep
in mind this is a DFS discussion right
so if people saw what they saw last week
they’re probably not going to be as on
Shane Lowry as maybe some of the guys
around him so I think you’re getting
somewhat of an ownership discount and
Cam Davis I’ll keep this one short uh
we’re we’re seeing something from
Cameron Davis uh and so I I’m willing to
kind of be in somewhat early a little
late but somewhat early on Cam Davis at
7,400 uh I’m really seeing something
with the ball striking we know he has it
with the short game time to time so I
think that’s a good price I think that’s
an excellent card and you get an A+ in
my book uh but all right Patrick your
card is you’re going to The Bargain
Basement so you know and I don’t usually
go that that far down I don’t go to The
Bargain Basement unfortunately Grayson
Sig is not in this tournament so you
cannot pick him this we’ll just wait for
next week uh the uh what that the Byron
Nelson is that is that next week I think
anyways oh Zurich yeah so two weeks
Byron Nelson okay uh all right so you’re
fading Patrick Klay who has a sterling
history here I mean all the guys that
are above 10,000 they’re not many with a
better history than Patrick hentley why
are you giving him the old fade I don’t
think there are any better with better
history than he hasn’t won he has won
he’s done everything but win he has that
one Mis cut and then what is it five
other top 10 with those being all like
Podium finishes pretty much uh and I
think people will see the ball striking
from last week get all giddy be like all
right we’re getting in on Patrick Klay
and I just I I don’t trust him yet I I
do not trust Patrick cley at 102 so I
will fade it people will look at the
chor history and be okay playing him
that’s fine I will live to see another
day what I will not stand for is Matthew
Pavan 7,000 how dare they how dare they
unbelievable he finished his T12 at the
Masters last week in his debut uh T5 on
the European tour his start before
playing Great Golf we know what this guy
can do all in on the Frenchman Chris
Kirk 7700 loved him last week he did
nothing to sway me off that position so
I’m going back to him as well and then
it’s not a week if I’m not rolling with
my guy Russ bus Henley at 8100 a
positional golf course that you got to
find the Fairway iron play is at a
premium and you know what his putter is
humming this year his iron play is
actually taking a little step back but
it was great at the Texas open so that’s
given me enough to go with him once
again at 8100 okay I I’m good with rough
what’s the grade what’s the Gade uh a B
I mean I haven’t gone that far I’m just
looking I was top aboard here you know I
this was this is a signature event I’m
not going lower I’m sorry you got to be
you got to be here we’ll see later in
the show if your grade goes up now when
it comes to F frls CA has a couple of
players that I actually will talk about
later in the show so including the first
one who was on the do not bet to win
list but I have circumvented that this
week that’s my tease all right see you
explain why you like these four guys oh
that’s interesting I have a feeling I
know how you circumvented it and that’s
oh it’s better it’s better than most I
will just say that better than most
better than most I love that all right
Cameron young listen this is one of the
first tournaments in a while I I I
should say maybe in the last two or
three where I’m actually not betting
Cameron young outright I don’t think
he’s a Bad Bet at all I just kept my
card as you’ll see relatively short he
didn’t make the cut very close uh but
first round leader I mean is certainly
in play he was I believe in 2022 was the
first round leader here as well he has a
a morning tea time which which I am
looking for although I will say that
again 70 players we don’t have a you
know the the start times are generally
somewhat close to each other but I have
taken mostly morning into the afternoon
like prior to like noon for example so
not nobody going off at one or two
o’clock but I do like Cameron young at
30 to1 Cory Connors also has done well
here in first rounds and he really is a
classic great course fit he’s a guy that
I think some people have on their
outright cards I don’t know that he can
get it done in this field uh over four
rounds but in one round absolutely great
course fit Cam Davis we already talked
about him definitely seeing him raise
the level of his game and Christian
bazen a guy I bring up a lot on this
show um maybe not the field for him to
win one outright but I love where the
game is with CZ and I think 50 to one’s
a good place for him and for the record
I have couple of long shots one long
shot outright and one long shot first
round leader as well just to stay tuned
for that yeah I think CZ is the next
Steph joerger as somebody that you will
will to victory at some point this
season you and we just need Patrick to
get Grayson Sig into the into the winner
circle and then we’re gonna feel really
good about life here on this program the
one thing I’ll say about CZ what I love
about him from a first round leader
standpoint in particular first of all
the history is pretty good here it’s not
like amazing but this is CZ at the end
of the day not Scotty sheffler uh the
approach play and the putter like can
get red hot for him can it can he do it
for four rounds actually maybe but I
know he can do it for one and so I think
he’s like a perfect candidate to Splash
for a first round and can you remind
everyone once again from two weeks ago
what you hit in this market yeah it was
AE batia at 65 to1 I had some close
calls this year so far I was kind of mad
I didn’t cash one like I think I had
Hideki in one that really should have
come in a couple of others but we
finally cashed OA B at 65 to1 first
round leer all right there you go now
coming up next Will Patrick McDonald
take my Showdown that I am going to
propose let’s hear from one of our
sponsors
beforehand out there there are two
colossal beings both forces of nature in
their own regard but in here as soon as
the shoot bursts open The Duality of Man
and Beast begins to fade this is the PBR
on CBS Sports
Network all right very very nice we go
from you know stubborn Bulls to Stubborn
Patrick McDonald as to will he take my
show that was not a good segue but hey
we have fun here on the early wedge and
as CA just said in the chat smash the
like and you’ll make us all happy all
right Patrick you’re gonna go with a
couple of uh all right now now wait a
second here we we’re gonna start I guess
let’s get right to it why are Rory mroy
was in the news this week there were
rumors that he was getting a bag of 830
million and partial ownership of liit
first of all what can you tell us about
what you know about that and then why
are you fading him this week uh well I
mean he talked to Todd Lewis of Golf
Channel today and kind of just laughed
and was like th this is not true don’t
know where this came from I’m G to play
on the PJ tour for the rest of my life
if you read the article from uh oh gosh
it’s escaping me the name of it I just
uh wait where is
City am a London based newspaper it was
written by Matt Hardy and Frank Darez
want to make sure they get credit for
this um they lay their claim saying
Rory’s got the offer the deal is
imminent and then right below it it says
we cannot verify any of this uh so so
that that’s really that’s I guess that’s
where we’re at in journalism so wow um
yeah I’m just fading Rory because he’s
not playing great at the moment for Rory
maer I know he had the the third place
finish at the Texas open but outside
that just bunch of top 25s and that’s
not really the barometer we gauge Rory
maory on and ludig oberg I know it’s his
first start here but I think the case
can be n uh made that he’s a top five
player in the world at the moment and
he’s playing some great golf so I’m
gonna try to ride the hot streak that
he’s on and then I love I love Adam
shank over Eric Cole shank’s playing
some phenomenal golf uh great finish in
Texas T12 at the Masters which will get
him invited back next week or next year
as well which was huge for him then Eric
Cole I mean for as good as his rookie
season has been it’s just been kind of
tough sleding lately not doing much
right so I will take shank minus 110
over Cole and to answer your question
EC I’m bowing out of The Showdown you
call me you can call me a coward I won’t
you can a scaredy cat I’ll take it I’ll
take it on the chin but you know energy
levels are a little low in the bank
account after spending some money on
Xander in Jordan spe pu pu last that’s
what happens when you and I share picks
I mean look at the three yeah I shared I
shared the three golfers with you we got
Xander in the top 10 at least but uh
Hideki wasn’t a factor seea you and I
both had him Patrick Yeah Patrick you
and I both had speed so I apologize for
jinxing your out I haven’t hit an
outright All Season which is terrible on
this program so I got I have to do
better but I apologize to you and and
there will be no criticism for uh uh
passing on this show all right CA you’re
going with your boy CZ uh there’s some
value here over Harris
English yeah listen Harris English has
been a popular guy actually I had him a
couple months ago I put 250 to one odds
on him to win The Masters I mean and I
only bet it because it was 250 to1 the
thing about Harris English is his
finishing positions as of late like he’s
been able and this is the Harris English
experience he’s been able to
Manufactured pretty decent finishing
positions in 2024 and I think that’s
part of the reason people are taking
liking to him but I just don’t think
he’s getting it done particularly with
the ball striking whereas again CZ I
just think is a good course fit I mean
for one we saw him finish 19th here last
year and we’ve seen him progress on this
course it was 28th 33rd then 19th 19th
isn’t like super impressive by any means
but I I think he knows how to play this
course now and I think that would be the
fear like off the te I think he’s going
to know to position it put it in the
Fairway and we know he can get hot with
the approach play which frankly Harris
English hasn’t been doing and the putter
can get hot with C best 2 so I actually
from a value
standpoint I actually think this should
be like minus 135 and I would still
consider taking it so I think we’re
getting a good price here this is over
at DraftKings by the way C Bez over
Harris English uh Chris Kirk this is
more of a fade by the way if you’re
listening the to the podcast it’s Chris
Kirk over Jason day also on DraftKings
Chris Kirk’s minus 120 this is a fate of
Jason day Chris Kirk by the way good
experience here like at least solid
experience here and it’s certainly a
good course fit the approach play has
been a little Checker but if you look at
the ball striking as a whole over the
last four or five tournaments it’s
actually pretty good he’s gaining the
ball striking Department you know who
you can’t say that about Jason day it’s
horrific like I don’t know what’s going
on um the his game is just way off right
now he’s been solid with the short game
and that could help him here for sure I
just don’t think he’s putting himself in
play at all because of what he’s doing
off the tea and with the ball striking
in general I should say the approach in
general so I like the value here too
Chris Kirk minus 120 over Jason day one
quick Point um fow over JT Hef Sterling
asks in the chat and he says JT is done
like that might be true but fow hasn’t
been very good either so I think you’re
just getting six of one half a dozen of
the other yeah just pass yeah I don’t
see any value there and I do want to
point out one thing because because
Moshi talked about how he’s he’s just
starting DFS he’s starting to get better
this uh ludvig over Rory matchup just
sparked something in me to look at some
ownership and it’s early right but the
thing about Rory is his ownership isn’t
super high and I’d say the same about
Scotty sheff I think people do fear the
let down thing maybe the baby thing so
the ownership will rise on both of them
but if you’re playing DFS it would be
good to know like Wednesday night like
where the ownership is on these two guys
because I agree that Rory is not gonna
have a great tournament but if he’s like
under 10% in this field you have to play
him in DFS and I would say the same
about Scotty Sheffer if he was under
like 20% I don’t mean that he should be
they should be in all of your lineups
but you have to speculate on these guys
a little bit given their talent versus
is what their ownership is just
something to think about with these star
names who right now aren’t getting a lot
of ownership Patrick which is worse
Jason day’s recent ball striking or his
outfits at the
Masters uh I guess it’s ball striking
I’m not uh you know I just put it out
there on the internet for people to run
wild with their opinions some are bad
but I don’t think all are that bad
Masters was a tough a tough uh tough
scripting for him you had a tweet that
went viral last week I saw is that was
that the Jason day uh you didn’t see
that’s like that’s legitimately sorry
yes I I should know better I should know
you have to be more specific for me man
I just saw I click on it like it shows
up on your who you know feed will
clearly because you and I are connected
on on Twitter and you’re like blowing up
you got all these people there’s more
likes that are I’m thinking wow I’m I’m
on with a couple of celebrities here I
like this you know two celebrities and
then this guy with a couple of uh picks
this week Cam Davis plus 115 over JT
Poston uh we talked about Cam Davis a
little bit was mentioned earlier in the
show but Poston hasn’t post he hasn’t
posted better than a T30 in his last
four listen he has three top 10 and two
Mis Cuts in his last five here okay
that’s fine I get that the recent form
not great now Davis in his last two
weeks t21 T12 and I think as CA said
he’s coming around his game is really
turning a corner he was also 28 he was
t18 at the API and his last three here
T25 T3 t7 and when I say the the letter
t it means he tied in those positions
just want to point that out nonetheless
the line value makes this one a good
play for me here give me that plus 115
on Cam Davis and then I know I this is
I’m giving myself a c grade for this
pick but I just can’t help myself Jordan
spe over Max hom so the first one was at
DraftKings that I gave out this one’s at
bet 365 Jordan spe over Max hom at minus
120 H has a t-41 and a miscut lifetime
here speed has five top 12 and seven
appearances and in the last two years
he’s been in a playoff both years went
one and two it doesn’t get much better
than that I I I don’t even know what to
say about Jordan Speed I’m trying these
three I said in San Antonio that I was
gonna pick Jordan Speed each of these
three weeks he played okay got a top 10
in San Antonio last week was an utter
failure I don’t even know what to do
with this week I we’re g to try it I
understand if you don’t want to go down
this outout Patrick do you approve
disapprove you you like speed a little
bit here no hey when he won in 2022 you
know what he did at Augustin
naal he missed the cut there you go I I
actually I researched that for my
article at sportsline.com and by the way
you can find These Guys these guys are
everywhere on sportsline.com uh and
cbssports.com so check out the three of
us have articles but these guys are the
pros and I’m just another guy trying to
you know write an article to get some
get some play here uh anyways all right
so that’s let’s move on to finishing
positions see we got a theme here yeah I
mean I think if what are we on the four
straight seg or three straight uh
segments of the show with a CZ mention
you just can’t help yourself can you
that’s right and what’s funny is he
wasn’t actually on my first round leader
card because that’s where we kicked off
the CZ experience I had Lucas Glover
there at 50 to1 and then I just decided
to switch him out for CZ just take that
for what it’s worth I know a lot of
people like Lucas Glover and it’s for
pretty good reason and it’s certainly a
good course fit but yeah T30 listen
don’t forget this is like a 70 person
field and and I will say this this isn’t
one of those situations where like at
the Masters where like the very bottom
it’s like a bunch of amateurs and and
old you know past winners that that
really don’t have much of a shot by the
way shout out to VJ sing who made the
cut and was like pretty good for for a
few days there at 61 years old I believe
is it 61 I don’t know somebody can
correct me on that uh but either way CZ
like I I do think a T30 is in play here
at nearly even money minus 105 again I
love the approach play uh history is not
bad I love what he can do with the
putter getting hot with the putter is
obviously critical at any course um but
I I just think CZ is one of those guys
that fits really nicely in that 20 to 40
range you can’t play him t40 because
again we only have 70 people in this
field and t40 would be somewhere in like
the minus 180 range or minus 175
something like that will zotus is my
next one we haven’t talked a ton about
him he’ll come up later in the show
listen this is one of those things where
to me
it’s a little mysterious why will zotus
isn’t getting attention because let’s
just go back to the last five
tournaments the Genesis T2 Arnold Palmer
API T4 then he gets cut from the players
t74 at the Houston open we’re like hey
what’s going on with with Will alator is
like can we even play him at the Masters
well yeah the answer is you can because
he was T9 and he gained 7.28 ball
striking and he did it with the approach
play and the off the te game and he only
lost 1.49 with the putter like that’s
that’s significant but it’s not like the
the week before where he lost lost seven
literally seven strokes with the putter
or the week before that where he lost
almost two strokes with the putter you
might be saying well see you’re giving
me a history with Wills Alat torus that
isn’t very good when it comes to the
putter okay that’s true but that’s a
three tournament sample siiz history the
four tournaments before that which
wasn’t that long ago by the way he
gained with the putter so considering
where the ball striking is at with will
alores I and that this is a lesser field
than it was last week and that he
profiles very well for this course a T20
at plus 105 is very much in play and I
think there’s more in play for will zot
Tores yeah I like that a lot and we’ll
talk about z a little bit later on the
show now virtual makes a good point here
he says I feel see is often early on
guys before Windam Clark became Windam
Clark C you mentioned him on here all
the time and you also nailed uh joerger
Stephen jger who you had talked about
for the better part of two years is Bez
your next guy that you’re predicting
super stardom for that we should get in
on early no he’s not a guy that we want
to get in on early from an outright
standpoint but if we’re we’re talking
other markets like T30 and but you know
he’s like people have been betting him
in the top 40 market and the top 30
market and and maybe in DFS so I I don’t
even know that I’m particularly early on
on him but from an outright standpoint I
did believe in Stephen jger from an
outright standpoint I did believe in
Windham Clark and there’s probably some
names in this tournament that that I’m
I’m you know I’m not looking at them
right now that I’m waiting for their
first or maybe second or third win uh
but CZ is probably not one of them
especially in a field like this to
actually win the tournament all right
Patrick who who are your super sleepers
you know who are the who is the next
Windam Clark in your opinion who is the
next Steven joerger who’s going to be in
I’m throwing this right you know you
don’t have any I I made five picks in
this you have nothing here so I gotta
ask you give us a couple of sleepers
that we should keep an eye on over the
next three three plus months this
season um Grayson Sig obviously he’s
gonna win this week in caralis punana if
you need a bet if you need a bet over
there he’s he’s my guy I think he’s 70
to1 uh
sleepers man I don’t know I like I like
the cut of Joe heith G uh jib you know
he had a good start there at the uh the
Texas open and the Puerto Rico open as
well really talented
rookie
um while he’s thinking like Patrick
maybe you have one more to give but
while he was thinking I did I don’t want
to forget because he just gave out a
caralis pick I think Victor Perez this
number’s probably been bet down I’m
looking at it right now I think V Victor
Perez at 30 to1 is a pretty good look
just wanted to throw that out there for
this is corales punana of course since
we are not going to talk about the
corales punana on this show I will say
this if Victor Perez or Grayson Sig win
this week I will give each of you a $50
bet to bet on a future
tournament uh I in the next month so if
if one of your two guys hits one of each
Perez or Grayson Sig I will give each of
you you have 50 bucks and we we’ll put
it on the line for one of your outrights
and we’ll go from there just going to
throw that there all right I got I have
five picks in this in this segment I’ll
run through them here quickly uh I have
four top 10 because I just can’t help
myself Ander shley top 10 plus 105 these
are all at B MGM he has seven top 10 and
nine starts this season need I say more
nope Rory mooy top 10 plus 125 this is a
gut feeling play I mean the guy can’t
putt worse than he did last week when he
actually still gains Strokes on the
field and I’m not sure how because every
time they showed him on CBS it was like
Rory just three puted from 10 feet and
you’re like how is this dude G
apparently he’s still dead per the stats
all right cam Young Who I really really
want to play this week even though he’s
on my do not playlist plus 220 for a top
10 solo second at the B far T9 at the
Masters the ball striking has border has
been borderline Elite of late and he was
T3 here in 2022 Windam Clark plus 225 he
didn’t missed the cut last week uh no
dinner updates on where he was where he
ate last weekend after missing the cut
but he was was first at Pebble Beach has
Sim similarly small greens you tried
saying that three times fast similarly
small greens good luck with that second
at API and the players behind Scotty
sheffler so we’re taking a shot there
and then Emiliano gilo top 30 plus 125
was uh second here in 2021 and seventh
here in 2023 he can putt slightly above
average as he did those two years we’ll
hit this and if not probably a losing
bet just gonna say that now where did I
make all these bets I made them at bmgm
because they ow ties if you are which
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Edge Edge coming up next you’ll find out
what I’m going to do differently in the
outright Market this week after we hear
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all right we got a little rapid fire
here before we get to outrights all
right uh Patrick I’ll start with you
Jared says first round matchup Cam Davis
plus 110 over Sam Burns who you like uh
I’ll roll with Cam Davis yeah I know CA
likes him obviously playing good has
great course history
Sam Burns kind of in uh no man’s land
and with a baby on the way as well so
yeah I’ll roll with the Aussie seea
Japan says haris English top 20 at plus
170 yay or nay H it’s probably a nay to
me in this field it’s too loaded for me
to put I like the number I like I like
the find at plus 170 but I’m not betting
it nope uh virtual windham’s meal only
had 54 courses not 72 I can confirm that
uh yeah he did not go the full four days
just like Pebble Beach where it was only
a 54 whole tournament all right now
let’s bring up my amazing list of do not
can we just get Sheffer out
there Jak I know I know what you’re
trying to do here and I know I made like
the rest of this list has been brilliant
but it also helps Scotty Sheffer has won
three times I mean what was I thinking I
get that all right so there are a few
players that I like this week ham young
young being one of them can’t lay
obviously Lowry who see it talked about
uh Keith Mitchell’s band he’s not in
this tournament is he in punana is he
he’s not he’s not okay I was gonna say
if he was playing there I’ll I’ll give
him to you both in that $50 bet because
Keith Mitchell’s still not winning a
tournament anytime soon all right let’s
see what we have here uh Patrick we’re
gonna start with you because you’re
going to The Bargain Basement here
you’re going you’re fading top aboard
Russ bus is back in play isn’t he yeah
yeah I mean you get anytime you get
Russell Henley over 40 to1 you bet him
in a in a limited field like this come
on uh just great course fit he’s he’s
playing well uh coming off that Texas
open wasn’t a great Masters especially
when he finished top five the year
before um but still 42 to one I really
like the number Shane Lowry 45 to one
for all the reasons CIA said this guy
has been smashed in the outright Market
I think he opened around like 70 to one
at some spots uh but honestly I think
anything over like 40 if you can get the
to1 I still like it and then Denny
McCarthy uh you kind of see a theme with
all these guys Fairway finders good
wedge players Lowry’s not a great putter
but McCarthy and Henley are um so I’m
gonna lean into those two and this is a
guy who would have just won the Texas
open if not for a guy named OE batia and
he would have won it going away so he’s
playing some great golf the TA green
games kind of matching that putter
slowly but surely and he has a couple
good results here so I will go with
Denny at 65 you know what your grade
moves up to an a at those odds for Denny
the way he’s been playing lately I
really really like that pick and will
probably add to my card I didn’t even
think about him but you’re right I mean
he put forth at at uh TPC San Antonio he
would have won every other Tournament of
what the last 160 based on Strokes game
against the field and of course he runs
into a buz saww and batia also that shot
in the playoff hole was really really
bad it looked like one of my wedges uh
which just ends up 20 yards short but
yeah I mean it happens see Patrick can’t
is on my do not bet list what’s going on
here yeah this is going to be one of
those tournaments where everybody’s
going to be so annoyed because Patrick
kley is going to win and like nobody
wants to bet on Patrick kley nobody
wants to play him in DFS he’s not
exciting at all I’m just calling it for
everybody right now Patrick kentley is
winning the RBC Heritage and everybody’s
going to be annoyed so why not put some
money on it so that you’re not as fully
annoyed as everyone else listen this is
a guy who was pretty good at the Masters
I mean if you look at the ball striking
he was great the putter not so good but
he’s been fine with the put at the RBC
Heritage you know how I know that
because he’s good everywhere at
Harbortown he’s third second mcut third
over his last four efforts here I mean
he’s been very good and again because
he’s in sort of that Superstar mold I’m
not really worried about him like
regressing back to the Patrick kley of
of of earlier in 20 24 and for the
record he’s been good off the te the
approach play has been very spotty the
putter has been very spotty but again
Patrick Klay coming off a good
tournament going to a place that he
absolutely dominates in terms of top
fiving it every time he shows up like
the number at 16 to1 wish I got it at 18
or 20 but I’ll take it at 16 to1 that is
by the way at B MGM at other places it’s
14 to1 which you know listen I I would
still bet it there but 16’s certainly a
lot more appetizing than 14 I won’t
belay with the point on will zator I
just went on to a long rant about why I
liked him to top 20 with all of that
analysis in mind I absolutely think if
the putter gets going we know what he
can do with the ball striking absolutely
think 28 to1 is a good number and then
Patrick already addressed Shane Lowry
he’s obviously got a bounce back with
the putter but he’s been very good for
since the Florida swing essentially from
a ball striking standpoint so 45 to one
is a pretty nice number on a guy that
can win this tournament okay all right
fair enough I now here’s where I’m
getting smart at FanDuel they are
offering this Market you’re I’m getting
the winner without ludvig Rory Xander
and Scotty and I’m not getting much
worse odds than than everywhere I mean z
I’m getting him a 20 to1 you’re getting
him a 28 to1 and I don’t have to deal
with these four guys who I very well
think could win any of these guys I mean
probably not not picking Ludi here but I
would pick the other three as my top
three this week so I feel fine well mat
Fitzpatrick he won here last year he
wins at places with small greens
remember that US Open
2022 at the Country Club I believe some
of the smallest screens that they that
the players have played in played on in
on whatever it is over the last few
years will zot Tores I mean listen he he
shows up in big events he had a rough
patch there but Cia has has You Know
spoken great of him so I’m all about it
and cam young I mean listen he’s on the
don’t bet list but the way that I did
this circum count doesn’t count it
doesn’t count so this is how I’m gonna
bet now if I want to bet players on the
do not bet list then you just bet them
to outright you just bet them without
you know Scotty or whoever in this one
I’m getting four players so Rory you
know spikes don’t have to worry about it
Xander spikes fine Xander’s due to win
by the way I think we all can agree like
it’s been two years for Xander we’re
just gonna keep betting he the guy’s
finishing top 10 every week you you have
Patrick we have betting Xander until he
wins right he’s so good he is so good
but he’s never here’s the thing is like
see he’s never In Contention that’s the
problem with Xander like he’s top 10 but
he’s not competing for the win except
except shout out to G gen 75 when he is
and when that happens by the way he
completely falls apart immediately like
this guy again the on switch is just not
there for some people it’s that doesn’t
mean he’s a he’s a bad golfer he’s a
very good golfer he’s one of the best in
the world but that on switch we saw it
with Denny and oxe and of course Scotty
shefflin we’ve seen it this entire year
there’s no on switch on this guy I Hey
listen I’m he’s gonna win this year he’s
gonna win Keith Mitchell will not win
this year Xander will win this year
maybe multiple times and we’re going to
have it but if he does this week I’m
protected Fitzpatrick at plus 1600
zelator plus 2,000 cam young at plus
2000 and if that happens I’m gonna feel
great and count this as an outright win
for myself now here’s what I want to
know about our long shots in our final
category here Patrick you had Denny
McCarthy at plus 6,500 in your outrights
but your long shots are fairly close now
what what makes you could put McCarthy
in that category right yeah you could I
kind of just I just threw him in the
outline there type of thing way to call
him out EC I I just you know I noticed
that and I’m like Danny’s a great long
shot at plus 6500 but you’re feeling
confident enough do you when it comes to
Long Shots versus you know regular
outrights do you put a different amount
of units or do you recommend a different
amount of units on each I I bet to win
the same with every single bet so
obviously yeah so like the 80 to1 and 71
is going to be less than uh so I have
like 2x on Henley compared to Glover
this week okay see how do you feel about
that how do you feel about as far as
your outrights versus your long shots
yeah like a lot of people do it
Patrick’s way that’s probably the best
way to do it mine is really based on
feel more than anything else like I’m
not a spreadsheet Guy where like I’m
tracking every single outright and the
return and every single first round
leader um if I think there’s tremendous
value on on a 70 to one shot then I’m
probably going to put a little bit more
on that 70 to one shot but if if I if I
think it’s just like a very speculative
play then I’m just going to like
sprinkle a few bucks on it so that’s
that’s what it comes down for me I
usually have three four five outrights
and I have a couple that I’m maybe a
little bit more confident in from a
value standpoint I’ll put a few extra
bucks on those so getting back to
Patrick got Chris Kirk and Lucas Glover
uh twice the bet on Henley that you do
Glover but you still like both these
guys why yeah Chris Kirk’s just been
he’s been great he’s driving the ball
great the iron play took a step last
week at Augustin National and so did the
putter so I’m All Aboard him uh at 70
to1 then Lucas Glover also quietly very
good the last three weeks uh kind of
found something there at the valsar
championship carried it over the Texas
open and was hovering I would say
hovering at the Masters kind of in and
out of the top 10 uh throughout the
weekend so got to be accurate here got
to hit your irons very well that is
Lucas Glover to a t so I think 80 to1 is
uh a pretty good price on them so your
grade goes up even more in my book
because both and Glover have won
elevated events uh essentially over the
last year uh Glover won twice in a row
including the first leg of the FedEx Cup
playoffs and Chris Kirk won the century
which was a limited field no cut uh $20
million purse so these guys in this
event now I hope that doesn’t happen
just for my betting purposes because
I’ll lose but one guy that I actually
might bet this week and I and I almost
included him on my list Brian Haron see
your grade just keeps Skyrocket you get
like an A+ plus plus in my book why do
you like Harmon this week yeah I was
debating as my last person in uh with
Brian Harmon guys like OA batia Lucas
Glover was definitely in that
conversation and I gotta say AE btio
from a metric standpoint looked way
better and when you look at what Brian
Harmon has done with the ball striking
in particular over the last month or so
like it hasn’t looked very very good but
first of all his record here is really
pretty great for for Brian Haron right
he’s seventh 35th 13th 28th over his
last four like certainly comfortable
here and he’s been really good with the
Putter and we know he he tends to be
granted he missed the cut at the Masters
last week he tends to be like a guy that
shows up kind of surprisingly in loaded
fields and obviously we saw that at the
Open Championship last year but but he’s
the guy that’s always on my radar when
like nobody’s really looking his way so
I think 55 to one is reasonable he’s got
it he’s got a re in the ball striking a
little bit as far as a first- round
leader long shot svenson’s funny because
he is your classic first round leader
pick because there’s no way for four
rounds he can be anywhere close to good
with the putter if you look at what he’s
done in all of 2024 with the putter
leading back to probably 2023 it’s been
really really bad but his approach play
as of recent has actually been really
good and if he can just Spike with the
putter in any appreciable way for One
Singular round I think 75 to one makes a
lot of sense for a guy who can play
historically like he has like been a
ball Striker he can play positional golf
he can get it in the Fairway be dialed
in on approach and times get hot with
the putter for around so I think at 75
to1 he’s super
sneaky all right well I can’t help
myself we haven’t mentioned the word
parlay on the show and that’s how I play
my outright so it is what it is
sometimes you have you hit them big and
sometimes well you don’t uh it’d be nice
if I actually picked an outright winner
too that that would actually help uh top
10 parlay here I love this one Xander
because all he does is top 10 and cam
Young Who I think is gonna Spike this
week plus 600 you can find all these at
DraftKings top 10 parlay Rory and zal
will zalot torus uh plus 750 we’re going
we’re rolling with these top 10 I’m
going to hit some some top 10 and then
we got this top finish parlay plus 1600
going half a unit on this one uh maybe
even less than that but hey I just throw
that out there uh half of my normal unit
that I would normally bet on the others
uh whatever that means to you uh Rory
maoy top five Colin morawa top 10 and
ludvig top 20 plus 1600 that is Juicy to
me what do you think CA actually I
wanted to ask you so these are pre-made
parlays right that chose yeah yep
because I really wish the Rory one the
plus because I like the plus 1600 one I
like listen like I don’t I don’t play
these but plus 1600 is a pretty rich
number I just wish Rory was T10 instead
of T5 which would BR like let’s put it
this way if it was Roy T10 Colin T10
ludvig T20 and it paid like plus 1200 or
plus 1100 instead of well plus 1,200
instead of plus 1600 I I’d like that
quite a bit but even as it stands right
now I I I don’t hate that I think col
Mor cow could have a pretty great
tournament ludig inside the top 20 makes
obviously a ton of sense it really comes
down to Rory being like pretty pretty
good and you know he can finish T5 uh or
top five so I I like that one that one I
think is actually at plus 1600 I think
that’s worth a few bucks I think Rory
this well you also like Z this week so
Rory and I mean z top 10 we’re getting
you know plus 750 there so the thing the
reason I like these and you can find
them generally uh FanDuel has you know
turny specials they have have some every
week and DraftKings has these if you get
ties so if Rory and zal finish T10 both
T10 we’re getting played we’re getting
paid out on that plus 750 we’re not
getting plus you know 375 or plus
whatever it is depending on how many
they tie with so that that I think is
really important to me all right before
we go one guy that we haven’t talked
about he is not in the field this week
is Tiger Woods and he made the cut and
he did he did great uh for Monday or you
know Thursday Friday and then Saturday
was what was and he shot probably worse
than Patrick McDonald would have shot
all right seea when’s the next time
we’re going to see Tiger Woods oh gosh I
don’t even want to like Patrick’s the
guy asked that question I don’t even
want to speculate on on when we’re gonna
see him next I mean the PGA Championship
I mean we think he’s playing there right
yeah he pretty much he confir confirmed
that pretty much after the Masters that
he’s going to be taking scouting trips
to Valhalla Pinehurst and Pinehurst
number two so what would you do from a
betting perspective with tiger going
forward ooh uh just watch him watch him
and have have fun you don’t need you
don’t need a bet on tiger you don’t need
to the only viable bet this last week
and it was a bet we talked about like
that I talked about with Mike mccl on HQ
we talked about it on this show as well
was whether tiger would make the cut or
not and you were getting in some
instances you were getting even money or
even like plus is money uh for him to
make the cut at some books I think that
and I was leaning on the make the cut
side of that I might have mentioned it
on the show I I think once you get to
round three and round four with Tiger
Woods you know you’re you’re really kind
of asking for it if you’re like for
example like a t40 or a T20 on Tiger
Woods like that unfortunately that has
to go all four rounds so to me the only
the only viable bets for Tiger Woods are
matchup bets in rounds one and two
specifically or make the cut bets where
you don’t have to worry about what he’s
going to do day three and day four
unfortunately the injuries are taking a
toll I don’t know how much more we’re
going to see him but I do think that is
some value in betting him in the first
couple of rounds considering what the
perception of him is right now fair
enough I think that’s great analysis and
I’m sure we will talk about tiger much
more at Valhalla Pinehurst number two
we’ll talk about the Open Championship I
don’t know if he’ll make the trip across
the pond we’ll get there this one
tournament at a time but it was good to
see tiger back in Action seeing that
Sunday red even though didn’t mean a
heck of a lot this week but hey good for
the kid Neil Shipley from Ohio State uh
getting a chance of a lifetime to play
that fourth round with he went to Ohio
State but also went to James Madison
there you go there you go I’m wearing
the Shipley JMU purple here I’m just
thinking about Ohio State I I you know
didn’t even realize that sorry see it
guys always fun being on with you thanks
uh thanks for the entertainment as
always hope you guys out there got a lot
out of it these guys are geniuses when
it comes to betting these markets and uh
it’s always great to learn from them
every week thanks to producer Jake who
does a great job uh putting everything
together except not deleting Scotty
Sheffer off my do not bet list and again
I don’t blame him uh I’m for C aad and
Patrick McDonald I’m meric Cohen as I
always like to say let’s hit it big good
luck