Valero Texas Open 2024 – Golf Betting System Podcast

Episode 299 – Steve Bamford @Bamfordgolf, Paul Williams @GolfBetting and Barry O’Hanrahan @AGoodTalkGolf discuss their selections for this week’s Valero Texas Open.

#PGATOUR #Fantasygolf #DraftKings #DFS #DFSGolf #Golfbetting #ValeroTexasOpen #TexasOpen

Valero Texas Open 2024 – Golf Betting System Podcast
By Steve Bamford

SHOW INDEX
00:30 Intro
01:42 Josh G Colorado Listener Review
06:48 Another Bamford 2nd Place x2
25:01 bet365 Sponsored 2024 Majors Competition
25:46 Valero Texas Open Start

We talk 2024 Golf Betting System Majors Competition sponsored by bet365 – entry details and comp rules are here: https://www.golfbettingsystem.co.uk/golf-majors-competition-2024-rules/

Golf Betting System Website: https://www.golfbettingsystem.co.uk/

Steve’s Valero Texas Open Betting Preview: https://www.golfbettingsystem.co.uk/pga-tour-tips/valero-texas-open-tips-2024/

Valero Texas Open Strokes Gained Rankings:
https://www.golfbettingsystem.co.uk/valero-sg-analysis-2024/

Valero Texas Open Form Table:
https://www.golfbettingsystem.co.uk/valero-combi-stats-2024/

Steve Bamford X: @Bamfordgolf
Paul Williams X: @GolfBetting
Barry O’Hanrahan X: @AGoodTalkGolf

Golf Betting System Podcast:
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This podcast is for listeners of 18 and above. Please be Gambleaware, you can visit BeGambleAware.org for more information and of course please bet responsibly.

If you li betting on golf but everyone that you back misses the cut get some experts Involved with all the stats and the tips and so much more cuz it’s the golf beding system the golf beding system it’s the golf beding system podcast greetings and welcome to the golf bang system podcast it’s episode 299 this is our 2024 Valero Texas open bets pod Barry o

Hanrahan and Paul Williams join me Steve banford to discuss our selection for this week’s PGA Tour action good morning Jens morning guys morning guys please subscribe to this podcast as you drive the popularity of the show this podcast is for listeners of 18 and above please be gambleaware you can visit

Begambleaware.org for more information and of course please bet responsibly visit our world famous golf betting system website where we have my in-depth Valero betting preview we’ got Strokes gained rankings player form stats plus of course our Valero predictor model all of that content is available across the

Event completely free of charge there is no pay wall on X if you wanted to follow us I am at Bamford golf Paul is at golf betting Barry is at a good good talk golf subscribe to the S banford golf YouTube channel where this podcast is available along with my weekly golf Bank

Show if you are listening on YouTube please like the show and you guys as listeners power the podcast as you know so we need your five star reviews on Apple podcasts as ever for those of you who leave a review I will read them out

At the start of a future show leave your name and where you are in the review this one is from Josh G and Josh G in Colorado the United States of America thank you Josh ju I’ll say that up front he’s actually entitled this uh this five star review Thanks five stars

Hey fellas I like to bet five to 10 leg parlays on top 10 to 40 markets would you advise against this question mark I would also enjoy hearing your thoughts on Long Shot who may place in the top 40 and why also it would be helpful to compare

The current tournament or course to what you think is a comparable course so I can gauge things that way it would be fantastic if you could add such content thank you that is from Josh G in Colorado the United States of America comparable courses thanks Josh yeah I guess we

Touch on a lot of this kind of stuff in a roundabout way either through the analysis we do before we publish our written previews or just in the thought processes anyway I comparable courses are the subjective aren’t they to to a large degree but sometimes and know you

Pick out quite a few in your in your justification for players often Steve don’t you in terms of how you Agronomy type of course blah blah blah yeah yeah exactly um as for as for rolling up players in top 40 um accumulators yeah I you know a lot

Of the players that we pick particularly the long shots whether whether they actually end up finishing in that kind of position um it’s often of outside of the uh the paying each way places I know that much but um yeah I don’t know it’s it’s a similar conversation to trying to pick

Players for DraftKings that you might think you know particularly good value right down the uh the bottom of the salary scale but could sneak a a reasonable enough finish to score you some points it’s not for us to advise how you bet is it People BET how they want to

Bet and if you found a niche stick with it I mean we we’re I’m very basic I just back each way or you know win or okay and sometimes I’ll um I’ll back some of the some of the stake each way and some of some of the stake on the exchange so

Then you’ve got some flexibility to trade and do do whatever but you at the end of the day if you found a niche that you enjoy betting on and you can take people’s information and turn that into Data that you can put on your bed go for

It I think you pick your battles as well and uh you know if you’ve got yourself a number of players that you think could go well but aren’t really likely to to feature at the very top end of the market perhaps that’s when you do roll

Them into a into an AER of some description with um yeah as you say top 20 or top 40 it’s like the M it’s like the Masters isn’t it where you can um you can do the to make the cut accumulators which always seem to be popular because the

Nature of the tournament uh the nature of the cut roll and the nature of the players in there you know there’s a lot of players at the Masters who um you’d expect not to make the make the cut simply because they’re either seeing it for the first time or um past champions

Or whatever the uh the reason is and it gives you a better steer as to how you may play that particular Market could be an interest that’s an interesting kind of bet type to maybe have a little bit more live bets on Sunday if you have a few different accumulators

Going if your guys aren’t going to win but like you could have a few in the mix just to get into the top 40 the only thing you’re missing out on is they will not be shown on TV coverage so you’re app tracking I I that’s yeah

Not my style of batting but yeah if it makes it fun for you then go go nuts on it think that’s that’s probably the best advice we can give isn’t it I think so each the own each their own that’s we’ve always said that you know I would love longer I

Would love to be able to take longer to get previews out and content out the trouble is as as content providers that we all are you know getting content out there in a timely manner is very important because otherwise no one’s got time to actually listen or watch or read it

So there’s only so much you can do in a very limited time and we like to keep this podcast to around about the hour and five Mark we’re waffling this week because Paul hasn’t got any tournament to talk about so we’ve got a little bit of spare time

Um let’s talk about last week I’ve got to say it was rather depressing from my perspective as I added Scotty Sheffer and Taylor Mo to my rank of second place finishers in 2024 um I just want to take you through some interesting stats from last week in fact

I’ll go as far as fascinating stats I did highlight last week the Memorial Park was a strange setup as in strange in a in know when I say strange that can come across as I don’t like the setup that’s not true but strange as in how balanced that golf courses is when

You’ve got a situation where the previous four Champions before Stephanie this year had 52% of their Strokes gained had been gained on the TAA green element and 48 on the putting green I mean that is not normal uh jager’s taken that even further his win last year last week he

Was 47% of his Strokes gained from te green and 53% on the greens and in a tournament like that you can see why Scotty Sheffer was fighting with the likes of Taylor Moore Alejandro toasty Thomas dietre and David skins on a Sunday and not beating them because as we know and

We did say this last week Scotty’s weakness is his putting and on a course where putting is so so important he just couldn’t couldn’t get away from the pack he couldn’t his te to Green game couldn’t get him enough benefit to actually pulling him away from the

Pack clearly If he if he hadn’t have three uh if he hadn’t three parted from what four feet on Friday on that that would have you know yeah at the end of the day he should have won that tournament with those two doubles he could have won that by three or

Four so yeah interesting my advice to I mean and I know that Scotty Sheffer and his team will be regular listeners to the podcast course Scotty go and play the Valero Texas open next year you’ll actually win it by five yeah bit more up his alling yeah perhaps he just wanted to

Test himself St at end of the day he had a you know an opportunity right to the very end didn’t he with that uh oh yeah five footer at the end and you know you look at the market at that point and he was only marginally behind um Jer at

That point even though Jer was already in the in the hutch with a you know a shot lead at that point because the market assumed that he’s really quite likely to make it and then you know go forward and win the playoff as it would have been but wasn’t to be but unlucky

From your side cuz you had a couple of players banging the uh banging the mix all the way through anyone can pick Scotty Sheffer at 3 to1 boring bet I get that but both times I’ve done it I’ve actually had another play of player in second Brian Harman at the players and

Now Taylor Moore at 70 to1 so it gets to the point where in instead of actually covering your beds clearly with Sheffer winning and Moore in second and Sheffer winning at the players and Harmon in second I also had mat har so you do make a decent profit

On the week and that’s with the the margins in golf betting is so crazily small it’s frightening and when you look back at your profit loss at the end of the end of the year and you’ve got seven second places sitting there you just think my

God but uh you keep going don’t you you do keep going because there’s always another tournament but actually I thought it was a decent tournament last week it was good to see some different names at the top of the leaderboard Tony Fen now came back from

The dead so he’s going to be an interesting um player to look through in terms of do we add Tony Fen now to our to our betting uh portfolios for the Masters next week this is the Valero Texas open week we’ll talk Valero Texas open but in in

The grand scheme of the things everyone that’s pretty much listening to this is so excited about the Masters we just want to get there we just want to get there don’t we yeah won’t be I actually haven’t looked you fill in for me um I just want to

Look where what’s happened to the actual Masters betting market after last week yeah has there been any any changes so Scotty was nibbled into 4 to one best price which um which you’d expect um it looks like you know in many places he’s going to go off thought on that which

It’s got to be the shortest favorite for some time at the Masters it does throw up a new question for the 2024 Masters one that we haven’t faced for a long time if at all you’re basically asking youself the question instead of will one of the top three

Win you’re asking yourself is Scott Sheffer going to win yeah it’s it’s quite it’s quite a simple question this time around and you you’d expect there to be without Sheffer Market out there as well for for comp who want to take Sheffer out of the equation completely yeah which if you got any

Fear that he’s going to go and win um which you should have because he’s got a very good chance of winning uh then that could potentially just uh ease that fear by playing that market instead sorry sorry Paul no I I that’s true yes you you will get those without

Markets yeah yeah Tuesday maybe Yer was 33s well 30s to 33s and 35s with most book makers but on Monday there was 50 to1 about him and that’s where I take my records from with unibet so on that basis I’ve added him to the list of players that are over 40

To1 and bigger that haven’t won any pj2 events I mean basically we’ve still in this situ ation where only Scotty Sheffer has won at sub 40 to1 on the PJ T this year yep Madness just keeps going yep can you think of any reasons Barry why this is happening this year is it

The fact that we’ve gone to this role you know we’ve gone to a new season starting literally in January and players are I don’t I just can’t can’t quite get my head around it it’s just Underdog City week in week out I wonder if there’s any psychology around the signature events and getting

Into them or you know trying to seal your place in there a little bit of the yeah maybe playing at the latter half of last year is helping you kind of get your find your gears now M and then the the other end could could just be a wild a wild

End of the batt curve yeah I can see that actually because there’s so many reasons now for these guys that are just under the top 30 to be playing Hot golf to get into tournaments with big money and once you get in those I mean

If you can grab a top top 15 finish it’s just doing so many FedEx cut points you’re pretty much guaranteeing your card for the whole year Stephanie yoger is now up to Top 40 I know it’s people before people start throwing stuff at me you know the world

Rankings don’t mean any he’s now in the top 43 in the world Stephanie Yer he’s definitely I mean he’s definitely jumped jumped a level we saw that didn’t we earlier in the year with his SEC thirded Mexico he was the longtime leader wasn’t he at the Farmers Insurance open at Tory

Pines and there there’s one thing you can say about Jager he’s turned himself into a elite driver of the golf ball and as we know in modern golf on lots of pga2 courses that helps you separate yourself so yeah it wasn’t exactly a shock winner when Stephan Jager popped

Up it was it’s been trending a little bit yeah it wasn’t massively popular though was he you know the price looked a little skinny as you say 50s in places but generally quite a bit shorter than that yeah it wasn’t really on my radar for a win I must

Say thought on the Masters quickly before we head into uh the Valera Texas open is there have you placed any bets gentlemen since we last convened or have you got any thoughts about what you’re going to do or anything in general this is the week for the

Analysis I think I I tend to keep my powder dry until the week the event because of the nature of the markets the way that the the markets tend to um push out certain players certainly get some extended places hopefully from Thursday Friday this week onwards and then over

The weekend and uh you in such a short field with a field that’s looking like what 87 you know potentially 88 if a non- winner this week manages to squeeze in then when you’re getting offered eight 10 potentially 12 places each way on the week of the event that’s so attractive

In such a short field so I tend to hold on for that but yeah don’t know about you Barry similar strategy I the only bet I have is from last year is Max hom and happy to have that a 40 to one off

We go to next week um I I think I mean I had like I was very very bullish on Rory uh a few weeks ago and I don’t know so much anymore um kind of leaning towards a bit of a beted on Sheffer but I I

I kind of just want to time the bet when he’s in running and maybe a couple off the pace so I might try sneak a little bit more than just the four to one that’s there that’s what winds me up even more about last week they’ve shaved him in

For the Masters and he didn’t win the bloody tournament for them it’s not just a double double fingers up job is it and I know yeah you shouldn’t be backing short price winers but um interesting yeah it is a it’s a fascinating a fascinating riddle to try and unpick

Next next week it really is don’t forget about the stat listeners four of the last five winners of the Masters have been 16 to1 or below bearing in mind at the moment we’ve only got SK Scotty Sheffer at 4 to1 Rory maroy 11 to1 and John Ram

Pretty much 12 to1 everywhere yeah so it’s either one of those three or as we know there is this Je juy juicy 40 to 45 to1 an upwards price where you do get a lot of Masters winners but that is cutting out Kea SP Xander a oberg hovland a whole host of

Players before you get to this 40 to1 kind of level and a lot of those 40 to1 guys you look at him and go he’s calling marara going to win the m I don’t think so Sam Burns No there is one name that interests me I hope there’s going to be a bad weather forecast Baron I love it I love that price yeah there I think we are recording our master’s research podcast this Thursday it will be out on Thursday so listeners stay tuned for

That right that’s enough waffle let’s talk about the Valero Texas open shall we sorry just before you I just I think I know you’re going to say competition yeah well no well there’s a few I think I think we should also just touch touch on uh K naima’s win in India last week

Because it was I do apologize yeah well I think you know it’s worth touching on because he was seriously impressive and this is a a young young guy who’s well he’s now currently um in in the Olympics playing alongside hii as it stands and uh know seriously impressive win four

Four shots in the end but he was eight clear at one point on Sunday and you know the the world is you know he’s AER effectively he’s opened up for him um he’s got big Ambitions to make it onto the PJ next year and who knows you know

The way he’s going that’s well within his sites I think massive amateur career um I don’t know if you followed any of the commentary around him but um is now turn that into a well four wins on the Japan tour and a DP World Tour win as

Well so yeah one to seriously keep an eye on for the future I think he’s um he’s got something about in this lad up to 78th in the world as a result yeah one more win and he’s going to be knocking on the door to top 50 and opens

Up plenty of doors for him he he’s played a few Majors already and not done a great deal but uh you know he’s still developing um it’s going to do him the world of good I think that course didn’t seem as tough as it can be there was a

Lot more birdies about you still got these um incredibly difficult holes these kind of divisive holes from a you know from a player and a punter’s perspective because they like the 14th you can just have an absolute nightmare there um but yeah it was C certainly a

Little bit easier in terms of scoring um for him to get to 20 under at one point I I I never expected anyone to get that low um but I think that just that’s Testament to how well he played how well he puted he was seriously impressive

With the putter you top The Strokes game putting and the putting average stats for the week and that’s even with his late wobble over the last half dozen holes or so well when he’s eight shots clear it doesn’t doesn’t matter a great deal at that point of course but um I think I

Was beating you last summer by eight shots and I in the end it was a draw wasn’t it with about three holes left yeah yeah it’s just um just impressive I think you just got to got you take take your hat off to him you know I had high

Hopes for Yos Lon after he started well but just trod water for three days and Jeff winther he was he was making a latest charge finished ninth which is no good to man or beast really isn’t we move on Paul Paul we do need to and Steve we

Do need to remember to back Soderberg in his next one or two events he lost seven shots and two holes in his 71 oh Barry also Barry after the event last week came out with it did make me titto on Thursday you know literally players have played three holes and

Barry comes onto our group he’s going oh always back Bo hosler in Texas in the first round so is that something you’re putting forward as a bet this week Barry sure let’s why not let’s just go for it so there you go Bo hosler firstr leader in

Texas where did he actually finish at the end of the first round you was there he wasn’t first round leader I know that much no I don’t think so this could also have been who that did that there uh the week before went out five or six

Under for the front nine and I said there we go Mitchell Mitchell first nine lead there we go f first nine leader is a market I want to get involved in before they get a chance to to realize that they’re at the top of the leaderboard or when they do when

They make the turn they go uhoh and they eject so there there’s there’s there’s the new market first nine leader Stephan Jager I believe was the only player even though he won and would have qualified for the Masters anyway to jump into the top 50 to get into the

Masters field I did go through a long list of players that I didn’t fancy last week because they wouldn’t do very well with the mental pressure I don’t know if I’m Jer might have been on that list he was right tentatively at the end of it I think fair play to did deliver

You you also brought feno back to life you said he was gone all over the place so if any listeners out there have a player they want to like fire on any given week we can get Steve to trash them on the podcast for a donation Steve to write him off and then

Jobs are good do you think we might be getting Tony Fen out 40 to one for the Masters next week There’s a little bit out there still yeah he doesn’t mind a top 10 does he cuz you know what in a couple of weeks time if he won the Masters you’d

We’d all be sitting there going wasn’t it obvious wasn’t it Tony fenel was so damn obvious he was in the hunt at Houston and we completely ignored him then he won his first major weren’t we stupid I’m putting this note down right now and then of course we’ll all put him

Up and of course he’ll finish 33rd at the Masters Golf Bay I just going to mention Paul you can back me up on this one the bet 365 major competition our closing date for that will be the first tea off at the Masters next week so if you are formulating your

Four players in a one inone situation for both the Masters open PJ Championship US Open that’s not in the right order but you get the gist I will put a link in the podcast description how you can enter we’ve got a healthy amount of Entry so far but of

Course the next week there will be week and a half there will be a huge rush of entries for that competition so just a bit of a pointer there to listeners don’t miss out on the bet 365 sponsored major competition for 2024 right let’s finally go into the

Valero Tex I do apologize for completely for getting the DP World T pole um it’s been a it’s been a hazardous few days for the presenter right no worries which isn’t ending anytime soon um right it’s the curtain riser for the Masters it used to be of course the Houston

Open the last one of those was in 2018 won by Ian poter who was ranked 51st in the world wasn’t in the Master’s field got to the quarterfinals of the world match play and then won this beating your first round leader punt this week Barry Bo HOSA always back him

In Texas first round leader um he beat him in a playoff was it a playoff in the end I think I kind of remember he beat him on the last green for I can remember pots going absolutely mental he was 100 to one that week made some parts didn’t he po

One since 2021 though this has been the curtain jerker for the Masters 2021 Jordan SPI won at 16 to one I was on him that week he was ranked 53rd in the world 2022 JJ spawn won 242nd in the world he won at 200 to one surprisingly enough last

Year Mr Valero Texas open himself Cory Connors the only course that that guy can win on twice won this at 20 to1 the very unexciting he was third in the betting Market he was 40th in the world so 16 to1 200 to1 and 20 to1 the last three winners the week before the

Masters so that was something that kind of marked my card with my sort of angles this week in terms of selections the golf course itself The Oaks Course TPC San Antonio so we’re deep in the Lone Star State for the second week don’t Boo don’t hiss it’s a Greg Norman

Design I categorize it as long 7,438 yards in length it is a standard par 72 featuring four par fivs said it last week say every week we talk about Texas Gulf a lot of it depends on the strength of the wind and as we saw last week I mean that was blowing

20 I think it was 25 mph Friday 27 Saturday and 22 gusts of on Sunday last week in Houston and 12 under one that’s what Texas golf can do to you it’s it howls doesn’t it absolute howling wind yep I’m not seeing so much of that this week in the

Forecast I think th looks light Sunday looks light the wind gets up on Friday might touch gusting 20 bearing in mind I’m looking at this weather forecast on Tuesday and Saturday looks an absolute howler 30 plus and the temperatures drop by 67° C to 21° so it’s not exactly cold but

Considering the rest of the tournament is high 20 is um it’s a significant falling in temperature on the Saturday so it’s going to be howling with wind and a bit colder uh for those of you in America that is 70 fah on Saturday the rest of

The tournaments going to be played 79 to 81 fahit so a 10° drop love the course what do we know about it it’s a kind of I I don’t classify it as but it’s got a very desert like feel to it ca cacti rocks everywhere if you stray off the Beaten

Track here you are in serious serious trouble Q reference to Kevin Nar he’s the prime example here so I don’t think there’s a bad stat in terms of looking at either good Dy percentage or uh proximity to Fairway distance so basically players that when they miss don’t miss by a mile

So if you know it would put you off someone like a Ryan bra character who can miss it 40 45 50 ft off the Fairway well around here you’re in serious bother um I I prefer nuggety sorts those this is the kind of golf course where if

You hit the ball straight and short you will be gaining Strokes off the T there is an advantage to not spraying the ball off the t- Box the actual rough penalty ref rough penalty so hitting the rough here doesn’t actually make much difference so driving accuracy itself isn’t that

Important before we go down that route it’s just it’s just avoiding these huge mistakes off the tea that’s what’s going to cause you doubles trebles and onwards so those that are pretty straight off the tea or or minimize their mistakes off the tea I think are are something to really tap into this

Week other thing I will point out take the last four winners here and just look at the the the mix between te green and strokes gain putting in terms of total Strokes gained 80 82% te to Green see what I’m saying about the difference between this week and last

Week 82% te to Green only 18% Strokes game putting and I know that’s really really obvious because Cory Connor has won two of the last four here you know team no part is undoubtedly in effect this week I think Connor’s one here literally gaining like 0.1 of a stroke ing last

Year but clearly his T to Green game was absolutely Immaculate I think he gained like three and a half Strokes a day T degree in terms of agronomy it’s Barry’s favorite yet again we’ve got the overseed Barry we have the poer trivialist overseed uh but they are Champion Bermudagrass rather than Tiff Eagle

Bermuda grass which we’ve seen so much of this year the one I liked this week Steve was uh Che Fescue or chewings Fescue oh no chewing Fescue yeah little little Google on this yeah it allows it to get uh they use it on Bowling Greens just just

Learned and allows it to get it nice and tight little fine bladed grass there you go you just don’t get this on any other golf betting podcast it’s fact who H who else is going to be mentioning chewing Fescue and the fact that they use it in on Bowling

Greens fact of the day that’s why thousands come back every week and listen listen to this Jabs F certainly certainly not for our bets oh God if you want a second place this is the this is the place right I’m going to highlight William Hill this week who um for me had

Some half decent prices and they still have um they’re eight places each we 50 odds as they are pretty much every week on the full field pj2 events I’m seeing them right now as we’re recording this Tuesday morning they are best extended Market odds price on Rory maroy Hideki Matsu arm Jordan SP

K marara decent field this week Cory Connors Max Homer Matt Fitzpatrick Tommy Fleetwood the list goes on and on if you’re 18 plus and do not have a William Hill account you can find details of their bet10 get £30 in free bets new customer promotion plus a link through

To that very offer with tees and C’s in this podcast description I found it fairly easy at the top of the market this week I have to say and the reason I say that is I still think and just reading through previous winners the week before the Masters Martin lead Matt

Jones JB Holmes you know it’s not screaming Elite golfers yet Jim Herman the hermanator pole hang on a second they’re all slightly Ginger could be this week I’m backing Sheamus per that’s it I needed one final thing to convince me I’m in he’s on my Post-It note of Doom but Russell Henley

Won the week before the Masters in 17 it’s not screaming to me players of the ilk of Colin morawa Cory you know Max Homer almost said Cory Connor so I just looked at the top of the ball and I thought who turning up here is the kind of player who is going

To actually give a damn about winning the Valero Texas open this week I came up with three Nam at the top of the leaderboard at the top of the betting sorry three players I think will or potentially would give a damn about winning right first one Rory maroy

We’ve seen Rory beat up arbc Canadian Open Fields the week before the US Open on a regular basis with Rory you just don’t know what you’re going to get he could be leading this by five shots come Friday afternoon or he could be struggling in 42nd Place he doesn’t know I don’t

Think do not be surprised to see Rory maroy get an absolute fly and be near the top of the leaderboard I then thought who else and at that stage I severely started to struggle because I think a lot of these players are simply here for a tuneup or their games aren’t good enough

Currently to win on the PJ tour so they’re literally trying to to find something to fire them towards Augusta now I would throw into that category colim morawa who you look at his game at the moment and his fundamental Basics he’s nowhere near where he usually is that’s the only

Reason he’s probably playing this and of course there is a gap in the schedule because there was no world match play this year so you’ve got players here wanting to play competitively clearly walking turning up austa next next Monday morning the only other player I could

Find at the very very top of the betting Market that I thought I think he’s going to turn up and I think he’s not going to give a damn about the Masters next week is ludvic oberg and when you starts scratching the surface with oberg he does make a lot of sense

Firstly he has never gone to a major championship as a professional golfer next week is the first time ever has no idea what to expect secondly ludvig went to Texas Tech University and a lot of his amateur golf was in the Lone Star State so he’ll have a big Friends Network

There clearly likes playing in Texas one a couple of big amate tournaments in Texas w at El Paso I can remember and he also won the Big 12 confence individual that was also played in Texas so gets on with this kind of course this kind of location in terms of the

Agronomy just in terms of how Texas courses tend to set up and I just thought do you know with ludvig the thing is clearly he has won on the PJ tour but he won it at the ass end of 2023 when basically no one in the states

Is watching golf apart from the absolute hardcore and gamblers you just think actually him turning up and winning this week in a state that he’s probably could call his second home in the states although he does live in Florida now lots and lots of positive notes with

Ludvig oberg this week and I just think he’s going to love the course because not only does ludvig bang the ball a long way but he bangs it straight as well and actually you look at that distance from edge of Fairway he’s in the top third on the PGA tour with his

PR s with the driver so when he does Miss he doesn’t miss by a great deal either so he was the one for me I managed to squeak 14 to1 three points each way on ludvig Oar for the Valero Texas open do you do you do you before I mean shoot me down

In flames I’m used to it but that to me made logical sense the other player that I really like the look of of in the betting market and just statistically in just knowing him was Hideki Matsu now with Hideki we have seen him win the week before a major he won that

The WGC Bridgestone Invitational but that was a World Golf Championship he also won his first PGA to a victory way way way back at the Memorial tournament and that was two weeks before the US Open and I eventually came to the conclusion I don’t see Hideki Matsu ruining his chances of winning the

Masters bearing in mind that the last person to win the week before the Masters and go on to win The Masters was was um of course it was Phil Mickelson and I think Don’t Shoot Me Down in Flames it was I’m trying to remember the

Ear po I think it was 02 or 03 or something like that was it the Bell South classic or something like that yeah Bell South classic so you think is hii really going to put his foot down and win the Valero Texas open or is he going to say you

Know what I’m going to do what I’ve done in the last few years and finish kind of 18th yeah 20th and a couple of rounds I’m really going to foot put the foot down and see what I’ve got in the tank and I went down that option

I wouldn’t put anyone off matu armor his stats are perfect for this but I just don’t think when push comes to shove he’s going to be interested about winning the Valero Texas open when I think he’s got a bloody good show of winning the Masters a second Green Jacket next week

Yeah yeah it’s the same argument with Rory and uh SP isn’t it the guys who you know I’ve got some history um or you know think they could they could go well next week and will we be wanting to Peak for that rather than Peak a week early and

Uh as you say not necessarily taking themselves out of the equation completely but the history is against them and you know the winner of the Masters generally is the player that manages to Peak best for that particular week so yeah say the logic obber I took o Berg with William Hill

Um when Jordan spe did wh win here and we were on him at 16 to1 so that 14 to1 price on oer there was a sneaky bit of 16s out there with uni bet as well so I will probably price him up on my list if

He was to win as a 16 to1 chance but SP hadn’t won on the PJ tour for a good couple of years before he won that Valero Texas open a few years ago he was absolutely desperate for any kind of win MH and he does like SP will go in he’s

He’s he’s very Phil Mickelson he he he wants to go in with momentum so I wouldn’t be surprised if SP does go well this week that doesn’t mean I think he’s going to win though because I don’t so that’s why I went for obber on that

Basis uh next up for me is Billy hell at 35 to1 where are you guys chiming in this week chps in terms of prices uh I’ve got a couple over 50s and a couple three figures for me so nothing below that ni he’s Paul who switched seats

This week uh I’m thinking um look at a bid Biden Hut excuse the pronunciation the Bamford pronunciation skills this morning he’s just he’s been popping his head up around leaderboards the last few weeks um really good on approach so just he’s not the most accurate or the

Longest driver but of course it’s only 7,400 yards I I disagree with you Steve if being a part 72 I wouldn’t classify this as a long course it could play it could play out that way but um yeah he’s 10th in your rolling Strokes gain total just to use your uh

Stats against you for not picking him actually ninth once you’ve edited a player who’s not playing this weekend but just just to completely tort you once I take out a player that’s not even in the field this week he’ll be ninth yeah as I said it’s been and if you if

You remove hiaki and Rory from the struges G from that then he’s up to seventh because you don’t neither of them really wants to win this week I apologize up front but I put Billy Billy Orel up as well I know where this goes I know where this leads

To I’ll State the case for Billy seven PJ T titles have been on Bermuda grass greens two of them have been on these Bermuda po trious oversea greens Louisiana Austin Country Club when he won the world match play so the Texas winner I’d always think with Billy he

Seems to get himself in some serious messes doesn’t he he just plays he’s he always quotes Todd Anderson and he’s all we’re working on this and we’re tinkering with that and all of a sudden you get a slump from him but one thing you do get from Billy and you’ve seen

This across his career when he finds something he can produce results quickly of a very high level and over a period of time in consecutive tournaments and I did notice the end of last week all of a sudden he had a round on Sunday which was absolutely fabulous and

When he was talking after the after the after Sunday he said I haven’t hit the ball so well for a long period of time he was 12 for off the te eighth uh sorry he was uh 12 for approach eighth through around the green he was fourth

For t for T gree and he he gained over 3.3 strokes and he was 14th for pting now patting on M has never been Billy’s problem what’s been his problem recently has been the approach play and all all I thought was the only way that Billy Hall

Gets into the Masters this year is to win this tournament and he’s just that kind of Sparky saw and we’ve seen this we see this year in Matt coo child the last couple of years it’s someone the story comes out during the coverage oh you know Matt cooa hasn’t

Been he hasn’t missed an austa since and you see them at the top of the leaderboard and they are trying their absolute guts out to get that win to get to Augusta next week I just thought Billy Hall could be that man if he does and it’s a big if if he

Does continue that te to Green game that we saw on the Sunday at Houston he’s going to be a big danger this week because I do like shorter straighter nuggety kinds for this golf course and I don’t think B Zaden who he kind of fits into that characteristic for me not a

Bomber makes a lot of his gains with the approach play clearly around the green and with some decent decent putting on occasions I think Billy hallw is in this kind of JJ spawn type of winner even Cory Connor to a certain extent I mean he’s not long is he Cory but he’s damn

Straight and his approach play is super super Elite it’s these nuggety sorts that I was looking for this week so yeah I put Billy hell in 35 to1 I got with bet Fred eight places each way on Billy hoe right Paul do you want to chime

In yeah yeah got say a couple mid-range um 50 50s one and above first one’s aay batia um actually got him 66’s yesterday um early d 55 to one still out there now 50s if you want the extended each way places some signs of life with baa um he’s another

One who needs to win to get into the Masters next week three Mis Cuts uh Phoenix PJ National Sor grass and then improved quite dramatically 17th at the valpar that was after a pretty slow start and then 11th last week in Houston four rounds in the 60s there as well

That’s to me that’s not dissimilar form to how he ended up winning the Barracuda last year he had some kind of indifferent results then 35th 9th then one and that feels kind of similar in terms of him heading towards a peak right now second for driving accuracy

Last week I like that ninth for griny regulation for old numbers second for strokes gain approach eighth for strokes gain T Green in Houston so some nice long game stats coming out of his performance last week uh played here once before he’s 46 on debut um three kind of indifferent rounds then Clos

With a 68 so got his head around the course eventually and uh I think he could go well this week I think he’s a good each way shout batia at 50 to one or slightly above if you want the uh less places the other one I facted um Lucas Glover 8 to one

Back in on the Glover and um for me if Cory Connors can win this event twice then why can’t another in team noat like Lucas globber go out and win this 11th last time out he was 10th for strokes game TI green he was positive Strokes game putting on his last performance

That was his best putting statistic week of 2024 which won’t surprise you if he was positive in terms of Strokes game putting and as you said Connor’s last time he was only marginally positive with the pter and I think Glover can do exactly the same thing get around the

Course from te to green and uh if he can just produce that marginally positive Strokes going putting week which he did last time um then he could go well here fourth in 2021 he was fifth to halfway the following year I think the call suits him nicely and I think he’s

Another one who could push towards an each way place or better this week Glover so Glover and baa a couple of each oh a couple of hundreds one shots or above after that for me Glover if you take out a guy in the field that isn’t even in the field from

My numbers he would be tied third for strokes gain te to Green over the last eight weeks tied with ludvig oberg yep that’s his game it’s just that pter isn’t it but now see a little bit of a spark then yeah yeah yeah I know for a fact

Pull that Lucas Glover is going to be popping on cuz he’s the perfect salt nuggety see nuggety I would put Lucas in that category uh we’re completely ignoring actually the request that we got at the at the top of the show yeah we we’re completely ignoring the requests from

Josh G in terms of comparable causes now I’ve I got to be frank I’ve got no comparable courses so I know that’s useful I can tell you though where play players that win this tend to play well so Sony Open is in a bad spot um Harbor Town that’s another good

Spot Colonial Country Club that makes a lot of sense because that’s in Dallas Texas I’m also seeing some weird ones just stick with me Liberty National the golf course opposite Manhattan they play in New Jersey shout out to nagles and also narino where they play in

Japan players that have done or won this have done well collectively across those golf courses I’m not some saying they’re comparable golf courses CU they’re not but you know if you were looking for courses that where people play well and win here those they are those Bay Hill

Another one Connors has finished third at Bay Hill Jordan speed’s got a couple of fourth place is JJ Spa’s never done anything there but you get the D I hope that helps Josh G Barry have you got any more to chip in my next one’s 90 to1 so if you if you’re

In that spot do not hesitate to put to to come in um well sh like I said actually I’m going to back Sheamus per no joke you said the Nugget as well Steve Davis was a nugget another Ginger so I mean all of these factors are just pointing towards

He does make loal sense there for certain I know I mean I don’t need any more rationale to back him than that like the ginger link is is clearly the one this week the key stat to be uh to be on top of I need to just check the

Field for who else might be a ginger and back them also power’s numbers are just improving week in week out so yeah I get it if you go on to his stats they on the like they just don’t look good at the moment but he’s he started from a very

Low base um exactly he’s picking up he had a poor final rounds at Copperhead shots five over 76 if he shot level par that to finish 26 if he shot level par in the final round he would have been T5 so there’s good stuff in there and

That was on a you know testing golf course so I like it 12 I can see him at 125 to one eight places yeah plus of he’s he’s he’s I know that a lot some of the events he’s in have featured no Cuts but he’s he’s he’s written you know he’s

Had checks given to him in his last six events so he’s definitely on the upward curve Sheamus pal and we’ve always said with him and you do follow him Sheamus isn’t the sort that wins from nowhere Sheamus is always the he’s a Matt cochar sort who it’s

Just literally like a gra a line on a graph and it’s constantly improving and improving and improving and improving so first you know 54 hole leader or in the last group last time out I could see him being in the mix again this week and actually holding on and and being a

Factor coming down the stretch yeah he’s Ginger is it sure yeah he’s Irish we’re all Ginger I don’t really want to know to be honest I’m not going to I’m not going to go down that route of inquiry I’ve put up Davis Riley at 90 to1 with

Bet Fred eight places each way there I think it’s picky Place Market Davis Riley is you know I always talk about Maverick McNeely and Maverick McNeely only does well on very short golf courses and whenever I put him up or I see people put him up on like 7,600 yard

Courses McNeely doesn’t do anything yeah well Davis Riley is a similar sort of player as in he’s so specialized it’s untrue he has to play on Bermudagrass and he has to play in the Southern United States to do well in in in essence I know he had a very good outing

And I was on him that week in Mexico as well but I mean Mexico take him to the West Coast play him on poana take him to the Northeast play him on bass just doesn’t feature take him to Texas Florida Oklahoma um Louisiana these Southern States and it makes sense because he

Lives in Mississippi grew up in Mississippi and went to Alabama University and his numbers last week were really good 14th in Houston was his best solo result on the PGA tour for over a year when he finished top nine I think it was at the 2023 Arnold Palmer good tournament big

Strength he was 21st last week for off the te sixth for approach and fifth fa ta to green and as I’m sure you’re going to hear on lots of podcasts he’s actually won on this course he won the corn fairy Tour event they played here the TPC San Antonio championship at The

Oaks he shot 16 under that week do you know what that 16 under total I think is pretty much where they’re going to be at the end of this week as well a good mids score 16 under not not not technical like last week when literally if you were nine 10 under you

Were getting each way play I think you’re going to have to go a bit deeper this week so Davis Riley for me 90 to1 with bet Fred right let’s have your longer shots because I’ve got one more of those as well so Paul throw in your longer

Shots for us I’ve got two um my last one’s shared with you so I’ll let you take the floor with that one um the other one I’ve backed is uh KH Lee who’s twice a winner in Texas he won the baron Nelson twice as we as we know and I’m

Sure we’ll mention again when it comes down to the baron Nelson um 31st last week that was solid but before that Ninth at the Val Spar uh fourth at the cognizant classic second for to stres going off the tea at the Val bar as well that’s really encouraging for this uh in

My view decent approach numbers and C green numbers at PJ Nationals so these long game seems to be working quite nicely 14th here when he played on debut he was second to halfway fourth into Sunday so um has some reasonable enough course form twice a PGA to winner since

Um making that debut here different player now um Can Do Anything KH Le so it could be a Mis cut or he could seriously contend 100 to one quite happy to take the chance that he will be in the contention bracket this week rather than the Mis cut bracket but we shall

See the other one as I say is my uh shared with you so I’ll let you take the uh take the floor with that one Barry your longer shots is 125 to one I’m pairing up long enough there was actually I’ve kind of skipped over I was thinking about Eric

Van royan not sure to be determined yeah I put him up here a couple of years ago and I’m pretty certain he’s got links to here College links something like that my only trouble with Eric is he can spray it you know I could imagine seeing Eric standing there behind a big

Cactus and he and the cad is going no we need and he’s no I get it out I get it out no you don’t no I can I can see being in that situation so I did have a good look at Eric and I came to the conclusion praise

It too much don’t fancy Tossy then Barry after last week uh no no but entertaining that golf oh that Golf Course is just so crazy isn’t it it’s all about how far can you hit it there was no rough there last week was there how far can you hit

It and a hot putter that that is Memorial Park and toasty was right up there see that guy can give it a lash can’t he y had a great chance at the end didn’t he Paul and I are sharing this was the I actually wrote this tip the very first

Tip of the lot which means he was my most confident tip to a certain extent I actually wrote this tip on Sunday he hadn’t even finished the final round at the Houston open Ryan Moore short off the te straight as a die cannot putt but approach game around the green

Game and the fact that he’s playing some really nice stuff at the moment I think Ryan Mo’s a great CH and he’s form on this course he eighth 18th 7th and third that third came in 2019 it’s hard to say Ryan Mort had a Renaissance but he is

Playing the best golf he has for a long time right now and clearly Paul you think exactly the same yeah if just fits the bill here I think for for a um three figure shot this week um there’s an awful lot to like that performance of the Val Spar

Fifth um second for strokes gain approach first for strokes gain T green if that’s not a big tick ahead of this week I don’t know what is really so um as you say 31st last week but this suits so much better and yeah I’m I’m with you

I see no reason not to take a uh an each way punt on that and if you’re talking going back to Josh’s uh point right at the start top four adding men to a top 40 AA this week he’ be probably the Cornerstone of that particular bet should I be placing that this

Week yeah I don’t know about his DK ownership because he has come from this is exactly what Barry’s saying about Sheamus’s power the thing with t with Ryan Moore is when you’re running your models and they’re taking last 24 rounds 40 you know all this Ryan Mo won’t show cuz he

He’s gone through the depths of Despair and I don’t think he made a cut on the west coast but since he’s turned come east his game’s completely different and we and we just said Alejandro toasty stepan Yer hit the ball as far as humanly possible and pwell was

The was the what exactly you needed to be competitive at Memorial Park last week bearing in mind the best player in the world right now couldn’t win that tournament with his standard TAA green game which is Elite well in fact it’s kind of double Elite for Ryan Moore to finish 31st

There of that course which was the complete antipathy of a Ryan mo golf course shows to me that he’s in great Nick yep so yeah Ryan Moore very excited about Ryan Mo so my four to to conclude Ryan Moore at 110 to one I know I could see some

People grabbed early 200 to ons over in the States on Ryan Mo which was clearly win only bet but wow that’s a price 90 to1 on Davis Riley 35 to1 on Billy hell and 14-1 on ludvig obur Paul can you summarize yours please yeah Ryan Mo KH Le Lucas Glover and a

Batier for me Barry Biden hoot van royan and Sheamus per so you you are going for EVR yes yeah yeah I’m going to do it I love Ryan more I’ll just support him uh I don’t want to ruin your bet so I’ll just take 10% of your profits on that when he

Wins and you’re going to go B hos the first round lead yeah absolutely yeah what did you say I oh he’s he’s so Sparky when he gets to always remember first round leader Bo hosler when he plays in Texas I think it took about four minutes from him to make a bogey

After I said that by the way you can grab 66 to one right now on first round leader Bo HOSA I think that’s is US chaps we will be back on Thursday to record our 300th episode The Masters 2024 indepth research podcast which I’m immensely looking forward

To should be good should be great I hope your bets go well chaps best of luck boys you too Boys best luck to listeners and we will see you again later this week see you soon if you on but everyone that you back misses the cut get some experts Involved with all the stats and the tips and so much more cuz it’s the golf beding system the golf beding system it’s the golf beding system Podcast