2024 Valero Texas Open Picks, Research, Guess The Odds | Golf TV Camera Angles | Fantasy Golf Picks

Pat Mayo takes a deep dive into stats at Fantasy National making early 2024 Valero Texas Open Picks with a first look and research for this week’s PGA TOUR event.

Use code “MAYO” at underdog for a deposit match up to $100: https://play.underdogfantasy.com/p-pat-mayo

Get 20% off https://www.fantasynational.com/mayo with code “MAYO”
Join Mayo Media Newsletter: https://mayomedia.substack.com/

RUN THE SIMS F1 & Spring Football PACKAGE (Code “MAYO” for 10% OFF): https://www.runthesims.com/mayo
Code “MAYO” 10% OFF at Ship It Nation: https://shipitnation.com/?aff=Thepme

Sub to the Mayo Media Network: https://bit.ly/YTMMN

#PGATOUR #Fantasygolf #DraftKings #DFS #DFSGolf #Golfbetting #ValeroTexasOpen #Underdog #TexasOpen

SHOW INDEX

00:00 Intro
00:48 Scottie/TV Angles/Degen James
5:38 Course Flyover
12:01 Course Stats/Scorecard
15:10 Tournament History
20:25 Model/Results
30:17 Mixed Conditions
42:54 Results
44:04 Guess The Odds

Uplift Desk – Go to UPLIFTDesk.com/MAYO for 5% off your order.

GRAYBAR — Graybar a leader in distribution of electrical, communications, data networking and industrial products. That’s graybar.com.

FACTOR MEALS — Head to FACTORMEALS.com/Mayo50 and use code MAYO to get 50% off.

MODERN MAMMALS — Go to modernmammals.com and use code MAYO for 10% off.

Squarespace — Go to squarespace.com for a free trial, and when you’re ready to launch, go to squarespace.com/MAYO to save 10% off your first purchase of a website or domain.

Apple: http://bit.ly/PMEiTunes
Spotify: https://goo.gl/VboemH
Google: http://bit.ly/GooglePodPME
Castbox: http://bit.ly/PMECastbox

Message and data rates apply. Must be 18+ (21+MA & AZ, 19+ AL, NE) and present in a state where Underdog Fantasy operates. Terms apply. Concerned with your play? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit www.ncpgambling.org; AZ: 1-800-NEXT-STEP (1-800-639-8783) or text NEXT-STEP to 53342; NY: Call the 24/7 HOPEline at 1-877-8-HOPENY or Text HOPENY (467369)

A experience experience Experience P Mayo experience experience welcome to the pat Mayo experience presented by Underdog fantasy code Mayo at Underdog fantasy right now get you a firsttime deposit match of up to $100 the single best way to support this show if there ever was one smash a like sub to the Channel

Download the audio podcast Pat Mayo experience Apple Spotify wherever you download your podcast and the walkthrough today is brought to you empowered by fantasy national.com fantasy national.com Mayo get you 20% off so not only is it going to be all the tools and Stat that you’re going to

See through the walkth through today you’ll also get on the list right now to test out the new leaderboard app which many people are saying is very great tremendous even because it is I’ve been using it now for 4 months people have been getting into the test and they’re

Absolutely loving the leaderboard app imagine being able to use an app where you can have the guys that you want to see all on the screen at one time in seeing what shot fat they’re on without having to click through each individual guy it just it saves you a pain in the

Ass put it that way and it’s just a bonus feature that we have at Fantasy national.com right now recording this uh just towards the conclusion of the third round of the Houston open so Sheffer I theorized a little bit that that after his double short Miss at the end of the

Second round which was his first time not breaking 70 or not breaking power whatever the hell what was in like 28 rounds or something like that God forbid I mean he’s like the worst player in the world at this point I mean he can’t play every round under power what are you

Doing how dare you call yourself the number one player in the world but it just brought me back to last year’s match play in Austin when Sheffer was just rolling at the time and he was playing Sam Burns in the match play semi-finals and he missed a twoot putt

To lose that match and it legitimately did something to him where he couldn’t make putts inside of 5et for the next 11 months he seemingly has rectified all of that which is great news I mean I don’t want to see Scotty sheffler be the guy

Who has ball striking a kin of like you know not I mean be an insult to Tiger Woods to say Peak Tiger Woods but in terms of what he’s been doing ball striking I mean that’s the stratosphere that he’s in like 2004 VJ amongst the

Top five best runs of all time time when it comes to Strokes gain total a lot of that predicated of what he’s doing T to green and to have that limited by how many five foot putts he was missing all of these top fives when he’s losing four

Strokes a tournament on the green is not all that fun I was so I was hoping that this wouldn’t like send him into some sort of Shame spiral on the greens and we just see the same thing repeat itself for the second consecutive year fortunately for him at least for what

I’ve seen of one almost full round so far of Sheffer that the putting is going to be fine it is not quite as disastrous as it went this time last year but something to be on the lookout for another thing too because there’s so many elevated Greens in Houston and

There’s always been the stock camera angle that broadcast be it NBC CBS golf channel even live does exactly the same thing that they have the stock Chip Shot like you can see the Green in the background and it’s about level like you can kind of see that it’s uphill a little bit

But sometimes at major championships and we’ll probably see this at Pinehurst for the US Open because of those like huge like like upside down Bowl greens with so much elevation to them that if you just use a lower angle on these shots I think it would really Express easier to

The viewer how difficult that these shots actually are because you look at it’s like oh yeah they have to get it up over this like little twoot mound like whatever you drop the camera a little bit and put it at their feet so they look Giant in the frame but you’re more

Centering the ball in the frame and then all of a sudden you’re like oh wow like this is super difficult to see like I just think it would Express to the viewer a little bit easier how difficult some of these shots that they make look

So routine are but if you saw them in the context of people standing around on the grounds I know this is one thing that I really noticed even a 3M which is not a course that has a lot of swings and elevation green side that you’re

Like man that looks a lot more difficult in person than it does on TV like TV flattens everything out whereas if you drop the camera and use that angle a little bit I think it just might turn out to be a whole lot better but hey I

Am not a producer for CBS or NBC I’m just a guy watching at home who tends to know a thing about cameras and angles that’s just what I’m saying so if anyone’s listening maybe we could try that out maybe at the Valero Texas open a pretty good tournament in its own

Right I did want to give a special shout out to my guy James uh if people missed it James released a health update at degenerate 75 on his Twitter uh it’s not good news whatsoever uh I’ve been reaching out to James trying to you know just trying to will him through this and

I know that a lot of support is coming through for him so I recommend that you go watches video at degenerate 75 I think it’s up on the shipet nation YouTube channel as well if you’re on YouTube and you gravitate over towards there we love James uh you know in the

Mayo media family he’s been a great contributor for us he’s become a friend and we’re always thinking about him uh and I know that he wants to get on as many of these streams as possible uh while he has the energy to do so so keep the lookout on James we’re always

Thinking about you dgen Nation uh and we hope you know everything ends up turning out all right for you okay at least that’s what you know we’re trying to will into existence okay so go check that out please Valero Texas open Cory Connor’s open we might as well call it

He is the defending champ he is a two-time winner at this course and we jump to the overview in the course flyover what you’re going to notice is a course that has a lot of Oaks that’s why it’s called The Oaks Course There’s 156 players in this field the top 65 and

Ties are going to make the cut Cory Connors as mentioned is the defending Champion 7400 and and 38 yards par 72 poet trivial with the overseed because of the late early bloom last year it was more Bermuda grass than anything because the Berita grass started to come through

I’ve talked to a few people who are local to the area and they say that’s not so much the case this year so expect it to be a lot poish like it you know in San Antonio like it is in Houston this week there are four power 3es the

Average distance being 2011 yard but whole 13 measures around 200 41 yards the fifth toughest on the course that really does boost up the average Connors went six overpar on six holes here last season in as when three of them came on the par 3es two Bogies and a double on

The par 3es these are just the most often parred holes on the course over 67% of the time between them it’s just more of a situation if you take your medicine you move on make sure you hit the green two putt get out and just start going to attack the easier holes

You’re going to find some of those as power fours but you’re also going to find six of the seven toughest holes on the course being power fours the three most difficult being power fours on the front nine so watch yourself uh going through the horrible horseshoe I think

This is the horrible Horseshoe Place I think so I probably should have looked at that before I came in but just remember like three through five through seven or five through six whatever it is the horrible horseshoe is just an ungodly terrible stretch of holes but

There are two short power fours and they both carry birdie rates of over 23% one of which is whole number 17 that also has just a bogey rate of 85% so 23% birdie rate going for it 8% making bogey it’s all risk or sorry it’s all reward very little risk in going for

That green although there’s not as many um Eagles on that hole is probably you would think that there would be being a driveable I just remember it just sticks out so vividly in my mind and I think it sticks out very vividly in a lot of people’s minds too because they hit a

Big winner in Andrew Landry in that year at like 175 or 200 to1 I on the other hand was Onre Mullenix at 225 to1 I really thought that he was going to win and he hit his drive on 17 he went for the green and it just went to the left

Of the bunker so we had to get it over it would have been a great time for that angle because what did Trey Mullenix do on his chip well he skulled it into the bunker like three feet in front of him and just stayed in the bunker and that

Was just the end of it he hit the each way that was nice but everyone else is out there victory lapping and being super pumped about their Andrew land triple digit ticket which is a very popular bet that week he was like the sleeper that everyone had except for me

Cuz I had the the guy who lost to him which absolutely sucked it was horrible you wouldn’t think that like 2008 would stick out in your mind so much like that but here we are the the the losses really do stick out far more than the

Winds there was only a seven point Sorry 7% Eagle rate on number 17 it’s hard to really get it on close to the pin but you should be able to get it up and down 31% birdie rate overall um and 23% rate uh when they’re going

For the green the other short par 4 on the course is number five it does have a 23% birdie rate as well it is the fourth easiest on the course it’s just 401 yards basically hit it to whatever spot that you’re comfortable with and boom

Just go attack the pin uh and just pray that it’s not like oh what the hell was the year I think it was and there’s one of the Year where just the the weather at this course got so outrageous uh that it was the the ultimate wind split type

Year I think plus seven was the cutl line that year we’ll look at it when we jump over to Fantasy National here in a minute however you keep going through the power fives have an average distance of 588 yards Conor played the the two back nine power fives at five under for

The week last season in his win birding both of them each of the first two days there were more Eagles on whole 14 last year than the other three par fives combined so that is realistically the must score hole on this course number 14 it is the easiest it has an eagle rate

Of over 2% there’s no other hole on this course that has an eagle rate of over even 1% a 42% birdie rate on that hole as well 7% bogey rate and that’s the weird thing about this course hole 18 and hole eight uh actually generate quite a few birdies now these holes play

Under power barely on number eight mind you number eight has a 21% birdie rate with a bogey rate of 15% 25% and a double rate or worse of 3% and number 18 you know a quarter of the field is going to birdy it but 14% are

Going to Bogey it and 3% are going to make double bogey these are some of the hardest par fives on the PGA tour as a whole so you got to get number two you got to get number 14 uh on the way going through everything because those are the

Ones that are going to generate the most scoring opportunities uh just even to take a look little bit of a deeper look at The Oaks Course it was designed by Greg Norman in consultation with Sergio Garcia the average landing area of the Fairway is like 25 to 30 yard so not I

Mean those that sounds super wide but it’s not super wide in general and the front nine has played significantly more difficult than the back uh from 2010 to 2020 the field played the front nine at plus 3,704 compared to just plus 730 on the back nine in that same span this event

Had more triple bogeys or worse than all the other courses except TPC Saw Grass so that it had triple Bogies are worse of 289 Saw Grass had 338 and PGA National had 323 in that sign which is really crazy considering that TBC San Antonio only has three water hazards on the course

And it annually has the toughest Greens in regulation to hit on tour along with Riviera harbort toown and TPC Southwind and we jump over to fantasy national.com and take a look at how some of these stats are playing out uh I mean you can see right here the green regulation

Percentage 59% versus 66% driving accuracy much lower but it’s more of a bomb and gouge type thing you just need to keep the ball in bounds there’s tons of sand all over the place 74 bunkers on the course this was the year I was talking about 2015 I think Jimmy Walker

Won that year yeah Jimmy Walker won at 11 under that year but one wave got completely wiped out I vividly remember Dustin Johnson I believe Carlos Ortiz getting inside the top 10 coming out of that way but plus seven was the cutline uh you see past few years you know plus

One even plus three even plus two plus one plus one that’s probably the range we’re going to look at I’ll research the weather on future shows uh I mean looking at it on a Saturday evening for next Thursday is not really doing us any

Favors now is it uh trying to look at it on Tuesday and Wednesday especially Wednesday when I do the show with Tambo is probably where you want to get into everything one thing that really did pop out to me very quickly though is taking a look at the distribution between off

The tea approach and around the green it’s a lot more flat than a lot of courses I mean this is kind of like the Cory Connor special he’s great off the tea but not super long and he has excellent approach game and I mean is Tom hogi in this field I should probably

See if Tom like this feels like the Tom hogi classic if he’s ever going to win he’s probably being a jabroni and skipping of course he is this would be a perfect course for the way that Tom hogi is playing right now where he’s rolling with the putter the driving an approach

Are amazing and dude cannot chip to save his life but this would kind of be the spot for him uh like we know that Strokes gained approach means the most of any course it’s not I mean it’s not necessarily the most predictive but when you look back and see how tournaments

Went you know the guys that did the best in Strokes gained approach are generally going to be the guys but at TPC San Antonio it’s one of the few courses where driving actually does inch closer to overall importance as approach um but I mean you’ll see that all year for some

People like long and straight is what you want off the tea but not everyone is John ROM or Victor havland in that sense it’s better to be long than accurate at this course because only 56% of the field finds a short grass anyway which is below the PGA Tour average which is

Over 60% at this point I wouldn’t say like full Bryson at Wing foot is the play here because you can really get it going bad but it’s not super penal if you miss the Fairway so when we think about like good drives gained that’s something that’s probably going to be

Pretty important at has a storytelling stat to see how guys did average driving distance a little bit higher uh green regulation to the whole a little bit longer than your average Tour event um but that’s really it like it’s a pretty it’s a course that’s pretty much in

Front of you do not hit the ball OB and even in terms of the average shot distribution it’s just flat you kind of need to just be good on your approaches obviously you’re going to need to make some putts in order to win but it it’s

Not it is a difficult course because of the big numbers that can be generated or the outside influence of the elements that can come through but overall it’s just who is kind of a well-rounded player that’s what you want at this course we’ll take a look at some of the

Past champions in the history at this course and you’ll see that it kind I mean it always hasn’t been the strongest field and the field this year is super strong so Conor’s wins last year over Sam Stevens Stevens was coming out third place finish in Puerto Rico the week

Before coocher Sam Ryder Patrick Rogers was the 50 Four Hole leader shocker he didn’t win big shocker on that one like Ben Anne is kind of like the perfect example of a guy who should be really good at this course he kind of does everything well except his putter so if

He can just kind of be okay with his putter his driving his approach I mean not super recently his approach and driving have been good but overall as a player that’s what you’re looking at it’s also the site of Andrew Novak’s first ever top 10 on the PGA tour so

He’s had like five since then now he’s kind of blowing it this week when I bet him top 30 at Houston he made the cut and then just gagged on Saturday hopefully he shoots like 64 or something like that on Sunday and gets that money back but Connors was the first round

Leader by Two Strokes after shooting a 64 that was eight Strokes better than Stevens and he really needed every single one of them Stevens besting him each of the next three rounds that two strokes was really the difference five of the top nine finishers actually lost

Strokes off the te but the top four on the final leader board were the top four in Strokes gained approach in order a season ago you very rarely see it actually just work out that way but yeah we sort by Strokes gained approach one two 3 three there we are then Ricky

Fowler in 10th the best off the te for the week Rogers and then an then Ben Martin they all gained a lot of Strokes TD green they just could not get the putter to cooperate the glove who made the cut on the number was exactly the

Same as well you see Hustler gained a ton off the te and couldn’t really do anything else when it came to putting last year Novak gained a ton Ryder and Stevens gained a ton how what what did Connors have to gain in order to win yeah point four didn’t actually I

Mean the approach was so good the driving was good even his chipping wasn’t a disaster like it normally is so that’s what happened a year ago at this tournament the year before that was 2020 JJ spawn I mean it’s also the last week to get yourself into the Masters you can

Either crack the top 50 in the world rankings or win this tournament to get yourself in he beat coocher and who was the other guy coocher and Matt Jones who left for live he was the one who is here uh he beat them by Two Strokes Thursday

Was his best round he shot a 67 um 11 of the top 12 finishers gain Strokes putting from 10 to 15 feet nine of them lost from 20 to 25 fet which is just kind of like a weird thing to throw out 2021 spe ended up being the champion

Taking away my Matt Wallace money that year I think tringg was the other one that I bet on who was the 36 hole leader at this course three rounds of 67 are better he was just just consistent all week and this was the big breakthrough for spe after years of not winning he

Was eight Strokes better than Hoffman Charlie Hoffman who came in second on Thursday that was the only round that he was better than Chuck Hoffman in Chuck Hoffman a former winner of this event in 2016 by the way spe one doing differently things differently because

That’s just what he does he was the only top 16 finisher to lose in good drives to the field and he was top four in both approach and around the green like that’s a very spean way so every time that he stop his approach would go up

Every time he missed a green he basically chipped in because that’s just what Jordan spe is going to do especially when you don’t have money on him when everyone bets on him it never goes that way when you don’t have the money on them that’s when the chip-ins

Start to happen we didn’t get a 2020 tournament it was cancelled because of Co and then in 2019 Cory Connors was the winner his first win he only has two wins on the PGA tour which is kind of crazy to think about and they’ve both come at this course he was the only

Player to shoot four rounds in the 60s his 66 on Sunday was his best of the week in T3 best on the course that day Connor was the best player in Strokes gain approach by three which allowed him to overcome his minus 1.5 Strokes gained around the green so you can see just

Kind of a fluent te to Green game outside of the Connor win in 2019 was really what we’re shooting for here even we look back to 2022 like you see I mean guys that left for live ended up having a you could be Troy Meritt and gained 10 Strokes

Putting or you can be everyone else who was at the very top of the leaderboard I guess cooch gained a bunch s points for putting as well but the approach wasn’t bad spawn just he did everything just a very balanced effort from Spawn you see Matt Jones a very balanced effort from

Him in the four categories didn’t gain any more than three and a half Strokes he gained three and a half on approach but he gained no fewer than two which he gained around the green and off the te like that is what you’re shooting for you see hadwin finishes just back gain

9.8 Strokes T to Green he’s had a bad putting week I couldn’t get it rolling and that’s how you end up coming in Forth but again that’s how you find yourself near the top of the leaderboard and In Contention with these balanced efforts so we’re really going to take a

Hard look at guys that really come through in terms of a balanced type of game with obviously more of an emphasis on what they’re going to do ball striking wise with a little bit more on approach when we build up the model you’ll be able to see that but it’s not

Like I’m going to be forgetting about around the green or putting this week we want the most balanced player possible we don’t even need to go build up the model cuz I already have it built actually we can just take a quick run here so I have my story game model put

Up what do I have in terms of the waiting for this yeah just kind of a bit of everything I didn’t wait ball striking and short game because I have everything that goes into it just TI green just take a quick look at it and we’ll take like Hideki is the best Tia

Green over the past 24 also rates out number one in the modeling uh because the around the green has been really good so guys like Damon Mitchell and Connors well the ball striking is all very similar all very very good horrible around the greens where someone like

Glover great around the greens great on approach the driving’s good it’s a it’s you know of a field of 156 he’s 63rd that that’s really good he’s just a terrible putter uh so again just a very even effort from him very even from Bud collie who missed the cut on the number

Jerk last week Novak great on approach great around the green can’t drive to save his life so if we kind of shorten let’s see if we shorten this down a little bit just to past eight rounds coming in uh and take a look who the top

Guys are and so Damon’s off the T in approach has just been so good he’s first and ball striking which is still making him first T to Green despite being a 100th around the green and 149th in putting over the past eight rounds this might be too short of a sample but

Again Hideki is very flat Ryan Moore is relatively flat norin is relatively flat I can see this actually being a norin course not that I’m going to bet him because he’ll be like 28 to one or something stupid like that Keith Mitchell continues to be terrible there

MAV mcne if his approach game was better this would be a really nice course for him uh you can see that Glover is still kind of out there Harmon it’s really just approach for him because the off the te and around the green is like

Break even but we know how well he can putt on any given week as well Harris English very flat Aaron Ry actually pretty flat across all the TD green categories as well Lashley bramlet a little bit lower down ecro just can’t chip Davis Thompson can’t drive Jagger

Great at driving the approach in around the green has been bad but I bet you when this updates for Houston he’s having a very good go in Houston right now that maybe that is a player who will get a big boost up in the rankings

Overall if we just take a look at the model it is Hideki Damon CZ Moore noren Connors oberg Hermon MTH mcne Chandler Phillips where’s Rory in all this because Rory is playing in this field by the way kind of buried the lead on this he’s 20th in the

Model I just want to see him get tuned up I’d like to see him make a run at the Masters not that I’m betting him at the Masters by any means I did bet the gala at the Masters that’s actually a bet I put in the only future I have so at

Augusta National Sith toala at 60 to1 I kind of want btia to win in Houston so he can get into the Masters because I would lose so much money betting on batia a lefty who loves to shape shots and seems legitimately dis disinterested in golf when there’s not a ton of wind

On the course like he was just in his glory the rounds two and three in Houston it was just blowing everywhere he’s trying to shape shots in the weirdest ways possible but here’s the Valero model when we kind of run through everything you can kind of see the waiting that I

Have here up on the screen off the T and approach 106 and then I combine them into ball striking so really overweighting the ball striking aspect of this I probably don’t even need it up that high I’ll drop that down to 12 since I have it weighted plus other

Things to go along with it anyway power five scoring 6% driving distance 5% I’m going to up that a little bit just because I mentioned how much more important distance is than accuracy on the whole especially with a stronger field this time around that’s always one

Thing when you go back and look at some of these tournaments where you know this is what plays and this is what plays and then you take a look at the fields and it’s like okay this is a c tier event like it’s not even like it’s like valpar

A lot of the time Valspar recently has not had the quality of fields as it had maybe even five six years ago where you would get five to seven like really really good players then everyone else kind of sucked like this one was always you’d have like your two or three big

Names if that the past few years and hasn’t even been close to that and now you get an influx of like 20 of the or sorry of 10 of like the top 40 players in the world playing an event because it’s before a major and they want to get

Tuned up so maybe everything that we’ve looked at doesn’t necessarily translate because of the quality of player that we’ve seen come through so when we take a look at the modeling like Rory doesn’t normally play here ludvig doesn’t normally play here could just go ham on this course I mean kind of seems

Perfectly set up for him he putts a ton he drives it a ton actually hits his irons pretty well seems like he would be great course for Andy super accurate off the tea like havland would be really good here as well I have two proximity or three proximity ranges in here I have

100 to 125 at 5% 125 to 150 at 5% and 75 to 200 at 4% we’ll jump that up to 5% for us there we go opportunities gain so scoring chances 14% around the greens 5% I’m going to bump that up to eight and then putting 10 to 15 ft it’s funny that

I mentioned uh cuz I when I was doing up these stats it was after I made the modeling cuz just that stuck out to me as well that 10 to 15 ft would be kind of the key range and that’s just where a lot of birdies are generated from and

That’s also where we see that putting can become a little bit more predictable than we’re used to more repeatable at least on a short to midterm basis uh when we’re taking a look at who is putting well from what ranges so overall in the modeling Keith Mitchell continues

To come out as number one he’ll probably drop out of that spot and Hideki will be number one after the reset of the Houston numbers come in because Mitchell did not he had a good tournament Nat in Houston Hideki number two oberg Damon Rory those are the top five over the

Past 12 rounds overall Rico H number six bananan number seven eek rot number eight Cory Connor number nine and Bud collie comes in at number 10 in the short term you see Aaron Ry yab bombs McNeely Ryan Moore Ben Martin Vegas Vegas could only Chip and Putt

Dude would be a legend on the PGA tour instead these guys been on tour for 15 years and has one win not a great bet outright historically CZ Harmon the glove Chandler Phillips he did make the cut in Houston you see yeah his approach is ball striking the off the tea is not

Great but he plays these longer par 3es pretty well very good 100 to 125 who are the best Bez Montgomery CT pan was the last time we saw CT pan I feel feel like I wanted to bet CT pan somewhere but he wasn’t in the field I think it was at

Valspar yeah he had a really good players couldn’t drain a putt to save his life how has he played this course 41st M cut M cut M cut good hang although the 41st pretty good two and a half or 2.1 off the te 2.1 on approach and that’s more what we’re looking for

Coming off gaining six Strokes at the Players had a bad Arnold Palmer but actually had a pretty good Honda pretty good Mexico open so you know if we see down the list the numbers do like him a little bit uh at least in terms of the short yardage overall he’s only number

71 in the modeling because you know he does not hit his approaches all that close outside of like three tournaments a year but he did make a run at the Byron Nelson a year ago another Texas course if you want to try to try to draw some parallels to what’s happening

Victor Perez continues to play some sneaky good golf he’s lingering he’s lurking on the first page of the leaderboard in Houston but he’s probably not going to end up getting there PTI is continuing his little hot run although he ended up missing the cut on the number in Houston it was pearon Cy

Who ended up there Harris English did he make the cut of the players he did his first like ever good players championship appearance okay so this is what we’re looking for from a GU maybe Harris English I know we always kind of get sucked into Harris English but these

Are a pretty good string of results and the other thing to note too and this is something that I really missed on with Nick Dunlap and obviously one great round on Saturday doesn’t make a tournament but he was price so near towards the bottom we can kind of take a

Look at Nick Dunlap for a second I don’t think that he’s playing in this field let’s see no only tily dunks Tyler dunin uh Dunlap Nick Dunlap so we take a look at what he’s been up to he wins the American Express and then what happens

He comes 53rd at the Honda 48th at bahill 80th I think that was dead last at Pebble Beach then he misses the cut at the Genesis and the players so after winning a lower status event a lower tier event at the American Express as an Amer well he misses he comes dead last

In an elevated event he misses the cut in an elevated event makes the cut at a non-elevated event but one that has a lot of landmines the approach was actually quite good there comes 48th does make the cut albeit there’s only 50s something or 70 guys in the field

And the top 50 end up making it plus the ties but again that’s an elevated event another elevated event where he missed the cut at the Players just the quality of his competition was really high and the Valero Texas open while having a strong field is not the Masters or the

PGA Championship or hell even the PLAYERS Championship or one of these elevated events it’s just not so maybe against the weaker quality of competition and the course setups for those type of venues maybe that is a place we want to take a look at Nick Dunlap or maybe he just randomly had two

Really good weeks who knows he’s just he’s trying to develop his consistency on the PGA tour uh but that’s just something that kind of stuck out my mind immediately when I saw it I was like huh that’s interesting he’s having another good week and I was like has he been

Playing only in elevated events and the answer was yes he has only been playing in elevated events so that’s just what we’re looking at in terms of how the modeling is going to flesh itself out what we’ll do now is take a look at the rolling model and we’ll load up the

Valero into that and this will be the first leg of our mixed condition model as well so you can see how I have everything kind of evened out um for the Valera we’ll just wait everything pretty equally sometimes I try different waiting but let’s just give a waiting to the

Last four S the same waiting to 4 8 12 24 50 and 100 rounds and see who the best player is over that time it’s ludvig oberg then Hideki Keith Mitchell Rory and Connors those are the big five after that when we take the short and longterm into account Ryan Moore Joel

Damon ban Hanan Lucas Glover Aaron Ry Max hom morawa yeah hom and morow are playing in this field and they’re kind of forgotten about people at this point but they are playing right now Kevin U CZ yab bombs Cole and eot Bud colly Rico he Ben Martin mcney so a lot of guys

Just from the past 12 model actually do populate uh even when you look back as deep as the past 100 rounds Kevin Yu was really the only one that snuck in there along with h and morawa once we started to factor in the longer term stats into

This who would be like some of the biggest losers who are up here besides Uncle Rico EVR Lashley Nova back Davis Thompson dri we’ll see how dri closes in Houston Eric Barnes has been quite good Nikolai hoard is back in the field again I feel like Nikolai had a pretty good

Run here a year ago and then flamed out on Sunday I think yeah just very poor off the tea which is kind of unlike him he’s supposed to be like one of the best players in the world off the tea especially for his age I suppose it can

Get going really bad if you drive one or two out of bounds this might be a spot to go back to him here just like he was able to gain on the greens he chipped well he gained a hun on approach in a T28 finish minus 3.1 Strokes lost off

The T it’s got to be up there with one of his worst ever his worst was at Honda in 2022 Shriners during the swing season and then Valero was up there like he’s going to have his bad off the tea weeks but he also has some like really big

Spike great off the tea weeks like we saw at Tory Pines or in Mexico like when you can go Hog Wild with the driver now they’re unlike Tor Pines and Mexico which I found a correlation between a lot um it you if you miss here I mean this

Is the course where Kevin NRI the 16 then went back and like chopped down the trees with the chainsaw in the forest so you can get it going real bad or if you hit it over like I I remember Dustin hit it into like a firm area one time

They’re like oh yeah that’s out of bounds so you do need to keep the ball in Bounds at this tournament but we can see when he has to go big with the driver and doesn’t lose a ball out of bounds he can get up there with what you

Need to do off the in this tournament so let’s jump back over to the Valero model in general and take a look at the past 36 rounds and add that into our mixed condition model for the week we’ll put the model stats in there boom pass 36

And we’ll get rid of Houston and strokes gain total and we’ll build a brand new one we’ll put in the short term and we’ll put in the longer terms past 12 and past 36 rounds I’ll give past 12 a bit more of a waiting on that one and you know

It’s 6535 right now until we start adding in a few more things one thing that I do really want to continue to harp on which has been leading me to better results be it in betting and DraftKings and trying to find guys from down the list is just play the recent

Form like why not right so past 12 rounds we’re going to go to Strokes gain total who is playing the best over the past 12 rounds make it easy on ourselves from that front and we’ll wait that just around and where we have Valero so we’re seeing how everything is starting to

Shape up in terms of the mixed condition model we can always go Strokes gain taxis that’s always a fun one if you ever get the uh the loading wheel of death just reset the page and everything will work out well for you it should be

In there let’s see yeah there we go it still added itself so you just had to refresh sometimes it does that when too much information is coming through so this always plays as a power 72 so we can take that into effect let’s throw in power

72 and we’re going to go back yeah 24 rounds looks good we’ll throw in past 24 rounds Strokes gain total on par 72s see because there are some players who play par 70s par 72 is a little bit better just because it does it’s almost shorthand for the type of course that

You’re going to play so we’re going to throw that one in we’re not going to wait it very highly just wait it down towards the bottom it will have a 10% rating for the moment I’ll go over all the mixed condition model elements towards the end we’ll go down to the

Very bottom if you were looking for major championships we do have a major filter which is going to be I mean we got to fill up that Albatross on Underdog there’s $50,000 of first place and you just go in it’s 10 bucks an entry you can draft I mean not as many

Entries as you want I think it’s 150 if that’s the way that you want to fineberg got hooked on them when he was down in Florida so Cod Mayo at Underdog fantasy uh I’m going to be jumping in the streets this week uh before we all head

To Vegas yeah if you’re in Vegas or planning on going to Vegas over Master’s weekend uh me and fber are going to be doing shows from there we’re going to be watching everything at the stadium swim at the Circa sports book if you want to come and hang with us I think we’re

Going to do a double watch party we’re going to do one for the round three of the Masters on the Saturday and then Paul and Cody from the dogger pass podcast are going to be there and we can watch along with UFC 300 at the same time too so Texas Strokes gained we’ll

Go with this year we’ll go last year and we’ll go 2022 it just take the last two years worth of data and again once we get the numbers from this week obviously that will add to Strokes gain text look at that look at look at old ludvig oh it’s

Cuz I think I turned Texas off that was dumb on me let’s see go back down to Texas only 32 rounds worth of anything are in here so uh we can see if we can squeeze everything out two rounds in Texas for ludvig has did not go well for

Him um almost minus four strokes per round Connors coocher Dey potty Harrington norin spe Tyson Alexander badley Ben Taylor benan so we’ll throw this one in again it’s not something that we’re going to wait super highly but we’re going to go Strokes gain total for taxes and we’ll

Wait that the same as power 72 just to throw different things in here you can throw whatever the hell you want into this and if there’s things that you don’t want to add into it then you know be my guest clear all when it comes to

The filter so it clears the years it clears everything else so we’re going to also go with let’s just take a I mean just take a scroll down the left hand side here uh Green’s bent in Bermuda it’s actually going to be POA now unless the Bermuda ends up coming through

That’s just the way that they had it listed for so long it generally plays easy relative to power so let’s go easy to average and we’ll apply those two but we’re also going to go down and get very specific with this you know par 72 we

Don’t need to turn that one on the green speeds are about average so let’s click on average but it’s the length of the course over 7400 yards where it generally does play and will play again this year maybe they switch around some of the power 3es and

It doesn’t a lot of the time you can see it’s generally quite in moderate wind or windy AF far more than Cal Comm win under 7 miles hour only 11% of the time so just these are the filters that we have turned on you can always see them

Up here at the top last 24 rounds easy and average scoring relative to power green speeds average courses over 7,400 yards average per round who do we like the best here Taylor Montgomery is actually the best per round of any of these guys that’s only in three rounds a

Lot of these guys don’t have a ton of rounds Sam Stevens Alex noren Ben Silverman spe an and spe and Damon keep popping up everywhere there’s Bob Shelton so we can always take a look at the top of what we want so we have the last 24 rounds multiple seasons of 2024

2023 and 2022 we’re actually going to shrink this down to past 12 rounds because there just with the amount of filters that I turned on there’s just not a lot of sample so I don’t want to go reaching back too too far uh scoring relative to part easy and average green

Speeds average courses over 7400 yards and you can always take a look Down Under courses of which courses these are so Coco Beach corales Plantation course caloa and TPC San Antonio so maybe too many of too many filters in this so cooch spawn and just the guys that have

Played well here what we’re going to do is get rid of average green speed uh because that should open everything up to us a little bit more so now we got Bill Quail Hollow Tory Pine so yeah we have more nothing Kevin Chapel so we’re going to

Throw this one in um we’re going to throw in Strokes gain total uh from all of these qualifications and we’ll just call this one you know you see last 12 multiple courses multiple years and we’ll just throw this one in along with the model as well we’ll wait that 18% so

This is what we’re looking at for the Mixed condition model right now Valero pretty solid as it says past 12 rounds for the model and then the model pass 38 28 and 15% last 12 rounds overall coming into play that’s like your recent form 24% Strokes gain total on par 72 Strokes

Gain total in Texas 77% then 18% for the one that we just built with the multiple years easy to average courses over 7,400 yards uh and that’s what we’re going to load in so when we go to the top and we scroll over to mixed condition model

This we can see we’ll load this in there’s our rank hii turns out to be Z number one player in the field followed by Connors benan Aaron Ry and CZ Harris English eot hom ludvig McNeely noren Rory Patrick Rogers killak Keith Victor Perez so we got Victor

Perez just of longer guys down the field we see we’ll see where ekro comes in and obviously These Are All Odds dependent however English English and Victor Perez and maybe even Sam Ryder who played pretty well here a year ago but he’s just all putting right now it’s absolutely

Terrifying when you take a look at it the players 4.6 at Honda 4.7 10.6 through the Florida swing now he did make the cut at Houston so I want to see what his numbers end up being I mean I can always just open the app take a look

At that while I’m going through this and we can take a look at what his Valero history is H third year ago two miscot of 42nd and 30 hey David skins is winning good Lord no shirts just skins shot four hit into left green by Taylor

Moore well that sounds bad of the guys that I bet on if he is not on the green with his fourth shot as of yet that’s terrible news for Taylor can’t believe I opened this app I didn’t want to see any of this stuff I wanted to open it up

Later and be like oh yeah it’s great news but we’ll see uh Sam Ryder okay so he’s actually losing 2.7 Strokes on the green through three rounds he’s plus three it’s not going great but he has gained a stroke per round on approach so if the driver could be a little bit

Better but he could match it with the putting a little bit like he did last year maybe Sam Ryder is another name that we end up on so Victor Perez Sam Ryder maybe noac who is inside the top 20 here and then Harris English what’s

Hom been doing I wrote up hom when I was ranking the top 30 players in the world I just felt like he was very underwhelming and it was funny because he had the top 10 at where is it here at the open he back door to top 10 at the

Open Championship and people were like well they know the seal is broken for Max hom it’s a first ever top 10 in a major what a hero and now people are lining up to bet walk and Neeman uh here’s the thing Walken Neiman’s best finish in a major I believe is t26 and

That’s over 19 Majors so I I get people got great numbers on them I’m I’m not immune to that like betting him at 80 to1 I think is a great bet betting him currently at like 28 to1 for a guy who’s never topped 20 that a major

Seems like a terrible bet is the way I’m going to try to I was going to try to phrase it in a fun way but no it sounds like a really bad bet now he’s going to win by five strokes and make me look foolish CU that’s all these golfers

Conspire to do is make me look foolish week after week Davis Riley is doing it to me this week making me look stupid after lipping him on this show when the stats fantasy National said oh yeah Davis Riley looks like a great play and I’m like yeah but he sucks so don’t play

Him and then I don’t know where the hell he finish but he was inside like the top 10 going into the day and I think he was the mid price on DraftKings anyway that’s where where we are where we are for the week in terms of the mixed

Condition in terms of the modeling in terms of the history it’s time to guess some odds oh you know what before we get to that I wanted to show you what moose had put out on Twitter uh over the weekend he gave away free membership to Fantasy National so the Musa nomics but

You can find it on my Twitter timeline as well there’s a link that he put out where you can go find your most favorite golfers ever if you’re a member at Fantasy National fantasy national.com Mayo all the fun stuff you saw me go through Plus is starting to figure this out a little

Bit but number one on the betting board in my guesstimation is going to be Rory I have been 8 to one coming in as the prohibitive favorite in this tournament because that’s just what he is in tournaments especially when he is the very top dog in these situations he’s

Usually single digits so that’s where I have him coming in tied for second I got Hideki and ludvig coming in at 14 to1 after that I have spe in maxom both at 18 to1 I have a tie with morawa and Corey Connors both at 22 to1 Herman by

Himself at 25 you earned it Brian Herman mini man you can be 25 to1 Fitz Patrick at 28 Tommy Fleetwood who is in this field is 33 to1 Russell Henley and Harris English 35 and 40 to1 Tom Kim potentially making his return from the injury he sustained at the Players

Championship I have it 45 to1 benan at 45 to1 then you have Adam Scott and Nikolai hoard both at 50 I could see obviously depending on if a player wins this week they’ll translate that over and get an odds boost if from Houston into Valero maybe Keith Mitchell will

Again be inside the top 50 but after missing the cut in Houston that’s probably a bit unlikely and you know if Jagger ends up with a great performance he might start at 50 Lucas Glover could be at 50 there’s a lot of guys in this

Field who could get the boost up in that way but that’s where I’m thinking the very top of the board is going to go if you told me that spe was the second favorite it was like Rory n spe 12 just because that’s how betting markets work

And people want to bet on spe in Texas at a tournament he’s already won I wouldn’t be stunned I just don’t think that spe is going to command that type of number with the just performance that he’s had so far in the year really has not been good whatsoever although this

Is a good course for him for him to spray it around hopefully keep it in bounds and then just do his stupid speed stuff the entire time making 45 foot butts chipping in from the middle of the Fairway that sort of stuff you know anyone who bet against speed knows

Exactly what I’m talking about this is the course that lends itself perfectly to that type of thing so that’s the show for the week code Mayo Underdog fantasy get in the game over there Circa over Masters weekend the 10th through the 15th fineberg and I are going to be

There Paul and Cody going to be there too Joy Don is going to join us in Vegas as well hope to see some of you at the stadium swim at the Circa that’d be awesome fantasy national.com Mayo Mayo media Network you sub to that okay smash

The like on the way out we have so much great content coming for you for probably I mean we got the Valero stuff not to say that that content is not going to be great or anything but Master’s content begins either Thursday or Friday and it doesn’t stop for like

10 days it’s going to be [ __ ] awesome so the more you can tell people the more you can share support the newsletter that’s completely free to join down in the description as well we’re going to have the most information you don’t need to go anywhere else now you can if you

Want to obviously and try to consume everything but if there’s just anything you need to know about the Masters this is the the channel to be on I think we’re kicking off with John rat house who’s caded at Augusta National during the Masters and Justin Ray about Trends

And stats that’ll be the first show out before we really start digging into what the predictions are going to be for the Masters all right but let’s try to build up the bank roll at the Valero Texas open in the meantime all right I’m Pat Mayo thanks for watching I’ll see you

Next time Mayo experience experience