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0:00 – Welcome
0:30 – Recapping last week
1:45 – $10k+ Range
5:00 – $9k Range
9:00 – $8k Range
14:50 – $7k Range
20:20 – $6k Range
27:40 – Final Thoughts
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We are back for another episode of the B Spurs Golf deerfest Show aka the byon show which is hosted by myself byin the model maniac and my good friend AKA PJ splitz 101 also known as Ron class was cooking dog all right man man the last two weeks multi- entering I’ve had a
Combined three lineups with six and six making through um last week was ridiculous and of course top it all off with a a Peter melady win like anyone even dreamed of that happening so the lack the lack of predictability in this sport is is something else it is
Difficult but I was just saying to Matt before you jumped into the studios that that’s how we ride you know you go at you go big or you go home and I think when you’re multi- entering you got to go like to get those 48 lineups of your
150 through that week is the week you live for you know like kind of just sucking it up it is what it is um we’ll wait and see what goes on but we’ve got an expedited show going on today on we are officially one for one in our 6K
Results you know our 6K little matchup SL snake draft that we do we’ll try that again this week my biggest winner was McKenzie for me thank God you know that was he made some big putts on that final hole to kind of get himself I think it
It saved me like $17 or something weird just by that final part so good stuff from Mackenzie use let’s dive into this week and we’ve got a 30 $113,000 Scotty Sheffer and then we got three guys in the 10ks which is a very interesting slate Ron so hit me with your Scotty
Sheffer take in 30 seconds or less yeah I mean look there’s there’s not much win equity in this field and I I don’t see a long shot taking down Scotty and so if anybody beats him I expect it to be one of these handful of other options in the upper tier um and
So you know thinking again about how poor this field is overall I don’t think it’s the weak to fade shuffler I mean he has the course record here he has five wins on these poetry of greens and he’s in a Groove with the flat stick right
Now he’s gained putting in four of his last five events and you know a big thing this week is you know I think we should just really quick talk about you know it’s basically a brand new course this week you know we have the move from Fall to Spring we have softer conditions
On the fairways and greens we have smoother poetri overseed instead of you know Bermuda on the greens and so you know the biggest change though is we went from 2 and a half inch penal Bermuda rough to practically nothing but a slight first cut of one inch Ry grass
Rough and so um you know the one thing that I I think is still going to be sowhat challenging is these around the green areas with all these runoffs and you have a lot of tricky pit shots from collection areas and some of those shots are among the best you know Scotty’s one
Of the best in the world at those and so you know I firmly believe there are enough six 7K options to play sheffler with ease and I still get different with how you mix a match guys at the bottom so you’re gonna match the match the
Field at 40% run or you gonna go 60% Scotty or what’s your what’s your deal so I’m not multi- entering this week um probably you know I’ll probably get somewhere around 50 lineups this week um but I I probably see myself playing at least 50% Scotty so I’ll still be above
The field um so yeah I just I just don’t know how you can get away from him honestly cool we’ll see how it goes I am gonna rock and roll without him I’m gonna go heavy on theala and will zelot torus I think I even built I’m I’ll be
Do single entries three entry Maxes this week I’m not doing multi-entry this week um especially when I’m fading sheffler that’s typically how I try and do that so I managed to fit theala Clark and zalatoris into a lineup with the 5K range you can fit 31k guys in there now which is pretty
Interesting and the the guys weren’t terrible so that’s pretty much how I feel I’m a big fan of the Gan zorus this week especially stacking those to a 103 101 you can do a lot of damage elsewhere with some really good names in the in the sevens and eights there so that’s
Kind of where I’m leaning I’m out on Scotty Chef La B him top 10 atus 230 laying the hammer and we’re going you know that’s just how it is um he’s minus 230 is a 79 a 70% implication run he’s doing a top 10 at like 80% rate right
Now the last 12 months so it’s just insane you know and now we go to a course like this so give me that I’ll leave him out of my DFS situation let’s move into the kns and chat about Tony fena defending champ who does not know
How to play golf at the moment relative to his skill set see Kim doesn’t know how to putt coming off a good putting week at the Players last week though Jason day loves Texas Alex Narin been playing some good golf lately Keith Mitchell the the Monstrous ejection over
There on on Sunday last week so we got final Guy Tom hogi one of the best iron players in the world so we got some names in this 9k range R hit me with hit me with two of them that you’re playing hit me with one you are
Not so I’m in on fenale this week you know putting is still a real concern I think he’s like 144th this season but he is is still so good on approach you know he’s uh you know when you look at the course this week it’s Fourth longest
Tour um you know I think approach from 200 plus yards is going to be critical and he’s one of the best in the field in that range so I’m still willing to pull the trigger on him you know considering it’s a weak field um his length is still
A bonus here and he is the defending Champion so I think 99 is actually pretty decent value considering you know the field strength um my other guy and and I’ve been off of him recently but he’s you know as much as he collapsed on Sunday you know Keith Mitchell at 92 you
Know I think he’s kind of building towards you know his next win and you know he tied for six out of all players in total driving this season um you know he’s his approach game is what is really as kind of was mentioned on the broadcast is how much improvement he’s
Made in that area you know where he is third in this entire field over the past six months on approach and when you combine that with his his Brilliance off the tea you know if he can just mentally you know get past you know what whatever
Hurdles are holding him back um you know I I think Mitchell is another guy that um at that price is is a really good play for me um now one guy I will tell you I was on Tom hogi um but looking a little deeper at the length of this
Course and how you know off the te he’s he’s you know that’s kind of where he struggles at his around the green play is not the best um so initially I was on hogi but I’m kind of backing off that St right now do you think the fact that the
Rough is shorter and less penal means that around the green play not as important this week because guys will be hitting more more greens yeah I think that’s another angle you could look at it um I I know I just remember from watching highlights and even going back and looking at last year
Um these greens now I don’t know how firm they’re going to be I know the season change you know may be softer this year than usual but last year these greens were so bouncy and if you don’t hit the the exact right quadrant you know you have all these elevated greens
And you have these runoff areas and even even with you know the rough being more consistent you know this Ry grass that’s easier to hit from you know you’re still going to have a lot of uphill pitch shots with these sloping greens that can be really tricky and so um you make a
Good point um but I still think I’m gonna be fading hogy this week yeah that’s fair I mean his irons though when he gets cooking he may not have to chip once around you know like that’s just how good he is it’s worth a shot but we’ll see it 12%
Ownership I don’t know if I’m going to be going there with him um let stve into some guys I don’t mind here I don’t mind Alex norin you know he’s just if we considering the fact that he’s been playing so well lately that’s what kind of drives me to him he’s very good
Around the greens he’s you know played some solid golf in the last few tournaments with a ninth and a 19th I don’t know how this course translates to him but just going to ride that good form I also don’t mind Jason day at I think he actually suits this course as
It eases up a little bit as well love Jason day in Texas love Jason day in California and I think the easier the course gets the better Jason day will play so I’m a big big fan of Jason day this week and then I will be playing Tom
Hogi i b him top 20 I’ll be playing him as well so we’ll see what cooks I don’t know if I’m G to be playing Tony F now at all um even at this golf course I think I’m surprised to only see him around 13 14% which is kind of crazy you
Know but um you know if that kind of remains there maybe I will dabble let’s take a look at the eight Ron we got some fun names in here too I will flag PL stevenh Jager as my go-to guy I feel like this golf course suits him so well
Driving distance out the rough play scrambling around the green get that guy the hell out of Florida the pter was completely lost in Florida hopefully it bounces back on these poetry of greens let’s see what he can do this week yeah I’m I’m 100% with you and
Joerger he’s he’s kind of turned into one of the most complete golfers on tour like who hasn’t won yet uh you know he’s top 25 on the field if you look at driving distance if you look at proximity from 200 yards if you look at around the green play you know in the
Last three months um his three putt avoidance is really well which is another thing on these greens you have 7,000 foot square foot Greens on average and so three put avoidance is going to be really key this week I think one of my most important stats I’m looking at
Um and even if you look at Strokes gain total on longer courses you know he’s he’s in the top 10 there as well so um you know he finished ninth here um last event that was held here um so I do love him this week and for me I’m kind of
Dropping all the way down to the bottom here um I think Doug gim is someone who um disappointed a lot of people last week I’m coming back to him this week playing in Texas um six best golfer um Tia green over the last 50 rounds um and
When you look at his putting if uh you know kind of between five and 15 that magic range um he is um above average in that area and so i’ like his his consistency obviously uh he’s a top 20 machine I’m hoping that we maybe get a
Little more from him this week and then Kirk kyama at 81 if you look at his recent results you know eth in Phoenix you know he was 19th at the players and you know where did he win his last event at Bay Hill last year which is a a
Comparative course to Memorial Park um he really excels on these you know longer courses yeah um and so long long iron approaches he’s really good at um so I really like kittama at 81 yeah I also have beill as a comcon but now kind of just thinking about we’ve
Learned a lot like in the last little while from interviews right we’ve learned that this rough is all the way down and it’s just smash as far as you can deal with where you are after that so that’s interesting right because beill it’s it’s the same principle but
The rough is way more penal than we we should expect this week secondly we also learned that wam Clark mentioned that he tweaked his back this week now I mentioned you could fit Windam Clark into a lineup with siah and will zelot taures how are we handling wind he’s
Currently projected at 25% so with that kind of news let’s pretend it goes to 20 maybe 15% um you know back injury it’s like I don’t know I don’t know where like we can overreact to this or is he just talking absolute crap and and we’ve seen
Guys with Scotty like literally with the KT on his neck win a golf tournament so sometimes when the expectations are down and you’ve got a niggle these guys can really play the best golf what is your take on this run yeah like you think about the Hideki situation I don’t I
Don’t think this is similar but I do think that with the Masters two weeks away I don’t think a guy like wiam Clark’s goingon to take any chances this week and I kind of I mean I was going to play him some but when this news broke
Um kind of just think think about how close the Masters is and you know this event really doesn’t mean much to him or it shouldn’t in in the big picture so you know I I you know back injuries those are fickle things and so um it’s
Not something I want to spend almost 11k on a player who is a you know who knows what the percentages are that he’d actually withdraw but um I could see him you know if he comes out and struggles at all tomorrow you know he just hey my
Back’s hurting I I got to withdraw and prepare for the master so I can see that happening I can see it too I also wouldn’t be surprised to see him battle like not battle through it just I mean he’s teing it up you know why would he be teeing it
Up if it wasn’t an issue maybe it happened this week while he was there injury news in the NFL is so much better than I would take NFL injury news over golf injury news any day of the week these guys are such anomalies and enigmas it’s just so difficult to figure
Out Ron it’s so difficult to figure out but yeah if he’s chalk I’ll fade him even you know like that’s fine um we’ll wait and see what some ownership runs come out tonight but I wouldn’t be surprised to see that drop into the teens where were we in the sevens I
Guess I was I wanted to chat about Patrick Rogers I’m seeing him at like 4% ownership which is kind of interesting I know he’s missed the last two cuts at the Val spa and the players we had a sixth at Mexico and a 25th at the API
Those are two courses that I can kind of relate this venue to a little bit more Farmers Ninth Place there Pebble not so hot you know I think these longer courses that can really um benefit his driving distance and just overall length is going to be where I want to play
Patrick Rogers at at this price at this ownership give me all of that see where he gets going um I’ll also be playing Jake knap I just feel like this golf course suits Jake knap quite nicely I feel like most golf courses suit Jake knap quite nicely I think that everyone
Will be playing Jake knpp he looks like the most popular golfer in the nine and 8K range so we’ll wait and see there but um some names that I don’t mind thoron Allison has been letting me down in a big way lately he needs to get his stuff
Together McKenzie Hugh is looking very popular at $7,800 I’ll be going back to Cam Davis after disastrous players you know he kept the short game together I think everything will be okay you know he’s very good at golf at 5% looking for some leverage 7700 Cam Davis
Um Thomas dietry as well what is he doing nowadays he’s playing better golf like sacrificed his soul down at the cognisant with the six put to kind of find some better golf again he cost me a four leg three ball parlay in round one because Aaron Ry couldn’t beat him Mark
Hub’s another guy I’ll be going to as a pivot off of Joel Damon we would have thought we’d be saying that after watching the full swing like two weeks ago Joel Damon by the way I was looking at this Joel Damon has more Strokes gain total in his eight
Rounds of golf average than Scotty shefin does at this venue think about that like what world are we living in and that’s going to just send Joel Damon stock especially after playing some good golf the last little while um I don’t know you know I don’t know I
Don’t know if I’m gonna eat that uh Joel Ron because it’s a different golf course you know the what Joel’s so good at is hitting the fairways staying out of the trouble that’s that’s eliminated now if if what we believe is true from this this golf course yeah that’s that’s something I
Have to keep reminding myself of what you just said there because I keep you you have this I have this picture of Memorial Park in my head from the past three years and I just have to keep reminding myself it’s not going to play the same this year and so you know
Course history is is you could almost say it’s irrelevant here I would um and yeah I mean I think you can almost say that I mean you look at some of the quotes even by you know Chandler Phillips who was interviewed and he basically called it a bomber’s paradise
And you know it was long it’s always been long but you you couldn’t just swing away freely because you’re worried about that rough I mean some of the most penal rough on tour and so yeah like looking in this range like even got McKenzie Hughes who has finished inside
The top 30 here in all three of his trips and he’s one of the hottest players on tour and you know you look at a new course this year where it’s playing you know he thrives in tough conditions and it’s going to be it’s going to be much easier this week and
Then I look and I don’t know what you’re seeing him but I’m seeing McKenzie Hughes at 16% ownership right now so I think that’s going to be a pass for me um so for me like I’m going to drop down here I really like Luke list um who’s
Sitting at much lower ownership he is always a threat on these longer courses with his power off the te is a long iron play um and and so again even if you’re looking at around the green play um you know he’s one of the things he’s not not
Too good at uh but he did gain almost six Strokes here um when he finished 11th and so you know I do like Luke list I agree with you on Thomas dietry um I think his ball striking his elevated ball flight especially if the greens are firm again
You know one of the things we have on the rabbit hole is um you know looking at the the Apex ball flight um so I think I think that’s something I’m looking at a little bit this week as well um and then just dropping down here
I cannot get away from Ryan Fox I think I’ve been on him every single week and I know his results have not been pretty um but again we’re talking about longer courses um I think this is kind of plays right into his strengths and so um I’m
Just keep kind of banking on his his Elite play that he showed in years past especially um you know in European events and tougher courses and so again I think 72 is a pretty decent value for him um I kind of like that Ron um yeah not to interrupt you there well to
Interrupt you about Ryan Fox is we know how good of a golfy is and every time he plays badly like kind of doubling not doubling down but still staying committed to him that reward is only going to be better and better because less people be on him
When he does finally show who he is right and it could happen at any given moment he’s extremely talented maybe there’ll be a moment where it clicks maybe now that we’re out of Florida he’s back you know to Texas maybe that just helps feel at home he’s from New Zealand
I don’t know if Australia is the same as New Zealand or I mean New Zealand is the same as Florida or Texas you know but I’d imagine Texas is a bit more comfortable for those kind of golfers so bear that in mind I do appreciate your commitment to the Ryan Fox
Hunt yeah I just I just think his pedigree you know when you look back at what kind of player he’s been over the long term I think when you when you’re dipping down to this range you’re looking for guys who can Spike and as as
Poor as he’s played I think he has that potential um and I think a guy like the Taylor Montgomery who’s right there at 73 you know as hot as he can get with the putter um he’s shown some flashes on approach you know at different points
Know going back to even like the Sony Open where he gained seven strokes um gained another two at Phoenix so I think Taylor Montgomery and and just getting into this range is guys who have the ability to spike um and who have upside and so that’s kind of what I’m looking
For down here I think Montgomery and fox and luk list all fit that bill yep I love all three of those they on I think montgomer is an interesting guy especially when you think about how many bodies he can make when he gets rolling I’m a little sour Fox you know I’ll let
You continue that until he plays well then I’ll join love Luke list from you love that I’ll do Cam Davis a little bit more like I mentioned we are fading McKenzie use for sure um sixks this is where we start our our little draft Ron so I started last
Week you start this week three guys a piece all right one of my favorite plays on the entire slate going down to 68 good old Bobby McIntyre again I think he’s one of the few high ceiling long shot plays who has winning experience who also fits this
Course you know you look kind of his recent form he has three top 40s in his last five events he finished six in Mexico which I think is going to play somewhat similar to Memorial Park you know as far as you know a long bombers course um you know he has plenty of
Experience thriving in you know windy conditions in Scotland which we’re going to see a little bit this week especially getting into Friday um so I think I think he is is one of my favorite plays and I think he’s kind of trending upwards I know he’s been struggling with
The putter I know he’s been working on it even with Brad Faxon um so I think McIntyre at 68 is is one of the best values for sure interesting I would say I would have preferred him in the November edition of this court tournament where it’s a bit more tricky
And more difficult I don’t know how I like Bobby Mack at a golf course that is projected to be playing a lot easier I’ll dive down to a guy by the name of Joseph ramlet at $6,600 he has played nicely here in the past a Ninth Place in
2022 has had three top 41 finishes in his last four starts so he’s playing some solid golf I like Bram at these kind of courses where he can unleash the driver do his thing in that department $6,600 seems very affordable to me for someone that’s inside the top 35 of my
Model in at $6,600 it seems like a good good value in that range I am I get back toback picks or do we just go one one how do we do it I can’t remember I think we just won one to one yeah just think we okay well we we’ll
We’ll start the other way next week if you want to um yeah I’ll go Cameron Champ here you know I know he’s you know with we’re talking about the bomber course profile you know he’s he’s kind of started to put it together recently you know you’ve seen him um playing a
Little better on the weekend here last week um and so I think just his Elite off the tea game if he can get hot with the putter I think we’re looking at a you know 6’4 you know I think he’s a guy who if the course plays like we think
It’s going to play Easier um I think he fits the bill at 6’4 for sure yeah I mean it’s everything you’re looking for long irons he’s playing a bit better golf I don’t mind that at all I had my eye on Ryan more but this is the one
Part about coming out of this Florida swing is there’s guys that are Florida Specialists that are going to be playing well that won’t translate to Texas and Ryan MO is one of those guys so I won’t be playing Ryan Mo I will be playing Ryan Palmer going from one course specialist
To the other essentially Ryan Palmer hasn’t necessarily played the best golf at at this golf course but he plays his best golf down in Texas there’s a there’s a range that he plays good golf in it’s Texas baby a 21st Place finisher in 2021 and then missed the cut last
Time they were out here so he’s been moving in the right direction two made Cuts in two of his last three starts once this guy gets down to Texas he parties so give me Ryan Palmer at $6,200 especially at that kind of ownership who knows you know if it plays
Easier than it usually does I’m in because I don’t like him on like a super tough course but if it if it eases up a bit give me Ryan Palmer let’s party um I’m going to go back jump up a little bit I forgot about this guy he uh
Finished 31st in my model he’s 6,900 that would be Sam Ryder who um has three consecutive top 35 finishes uh he he has been riding you know kind of the hot flat stick um but I uh looking at his you know you don’t really think of him
As as a quality player on longer courses but he’s in the top 40 in this field in Long courses um so I’m going to kind of Bank on his recent form his consistency um at 6,900 Co Adam on Sam he’s fun he’s good for DFS he makes tons of birdies it’s
Very interesting to see what he gets up to all right I’m going to do I get bonus points if I pick a 5k guyon little yeah sure what points what bonus points do I get actually let’s we should make a rout where we each have to pick one 5K guys
Two sixes and a five cool okay I like that we could almost have like an imaginary salary cap anyway but we can discuss that off here Raphael Campos $5,200 that’s my guy ball striking Beast guys solid around the greens let’s see what he can do I’ve been a big believer in
Him when he gets to the weekends he plays Some solid golf so Campos has been playing well man um hasn’t played a lot but he’s got a 20th and a 38th in two of his last three and he’s played well in Mexico and the farmers which to me another two good overlapping venues
Compared to like where he missed the cut last week at the Val spot so give me Campos I like him a lot at 50 he will be one of my anchors in the 5K range I’m going to go with Jonathan Vegas who is at 5600 and um he was 41st
In my model this week um he is actually top 10 in this field and ball striking still kind of a weekly thing with him um he is 12th best in this field on Long courses uh and then you know when I run the on the rabbit hole another thing you
Can do is is put in the the courses that are similar to the week’s course and so on my comp course U model for the week he is 21st best in this field so I think Jonathan Vegas brings a lot of upside to the table if he can get through the cutline at
5600 cool I love Vegas too he’s waiting to just figure it out because he’s been I mean he got through the cut at Mexico and it broke him you know it it broke him literally so we’re waiting for Vegas to figure his stuff out but we’ll we’ll
See what he can get up to I think that’s a solid play there on any other names in this range I’ll be mentioning Tom Whitney again as always $5,400 well you’ve got you’ve got one more pick so you got three we got I’ve got four
You’ve got three so you got one more you picked four guys already McIntyre champ Ryder and Vegas you have bramlet Palmer and Campos so you need one more um brm pal and Campos and I can do a 6K guy still you do anybody yep anybody 7K or
Below um I will do how does Sam Stevens sound at 6,400 $ I love the distance off the te give me give me that you know I feel like that’s an easier course for Sam seems like the way to go for him right so um I don’t
Know Ron I bet a whole bunch of unders for round one for four different golfers I think that’s the round to kind of really attack anything under this week I don’t know how easy it’s still going to play though like with these the grass changing but also the wind the wind
Looks like it’s going to be 12 miles plus Friday Saturday Sunday for the golfers at Ting off in the afternoon especially so I don’t know man I I don’t know what to expect this week give us your final thoughts on on this week uh agree completely when you look at the
Weather when you look at you know how the rough is probably going to grow somewhat throughout the week I think I think tomorrow is the day to attack um if you looking to play unders for Rounds you know just for round one um I think birdies yep all those things
Um should be probably aggressively pursued because usually those the books are not the best at picking up these these subtle changes that courses make um so I think that’s a really interesting angle to look at cool um they do have like over three and a half
Birdies by at minus 190 you know like they being a bunch of chickens you know those books of there so um don’t want to give us solid numbers anyway go hunt some down I tweeted out a few unders for total scores out there too so that’s at
The model Maniac follow Ron at PJs spits 101 on the X machine go check out the rabbit hole it’s awesome you can filter on pretty much anything you want and IT addresses the stats exactly how you would like so it’s an awesome tool go
Check it out hit Ron up in the DMS if you’re looking for a nice promo code he’ll hit you with one of those um thanks to Matt behind the scenes for organizing the show for us let’s have an awesome week at the Texas Children’s Houston open for DFS atbs Birds golf.com
Have yourselves a great week and don’t forget to Pivot your face off
