Did Iowa Get Bad Seeds Or Good Draws?

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Al righty the Iowa Hawkeyes have their draws their path for the 2024 NCA championships in Kansas City and it’s a mixed bag of draws for the Hawkeyes there’s there’s a couple things going on on the one hand you can look at their seeds and say man pretty tough seeds you

Got someone as good as Jared Franck gets the 10 someone as good as cendo the six but as you if you take a closer look it’s really not about the seed it’s about the path right and I think you’ll find that in some of these they have a

Decent path even though it is uh maybe on paper the seed looks difficult we’re going to get into I’m going to get into the good draws and the tough draws for the Iowa hawkey all starting at I’m not going to go necessarily in weight class order I’m

Going to bounce around from the good draws to the to the tough draws but starting at 125 you look for Drake a he got the three seed that’s good and you look at his path Eli Griffin he already wrestled and beat him this year jet strickenberger or niik Provo in round

Two Provo was R number one in America at a point in time but I think it’s going to be jet here Jet’s been wrestling a little bit better jet is tricky he’s scrambly he’s tough on top but I think Drake’s going to have too much of an

Advantage there on the feet and I think he makes it to that quarterfinal where I think he’ll face Troy spratley again now it could be Cooper Flyn that makes it to him but I I would be a little surprised if that were the case I think spradley’s

Had a little better year can score a little bit more so that’s a rematch potentially um for Drake and I think Drake’s the favorite there slightly on was an overtime match but spratley didn’t give himself many opportunities to score in that match it was I think

Drake that was able to get the legs a couple times not many there’s not much separating them but he was able to get the final score in sudden Victory so that’s not bad I have him making the semis before falling to Jacob kamacho let’s be honest Drake can make the

Finals here um Luke stannic could be his semi-finals opponent if he makes it um could be di austino Eric Barnett di austino for whatever reason Dr can’t beat him he can beat him he has beaten him but this year hasn’t been able to do it but it’s a navigable path for Drake a

And should he get bounced uh if he gets bounced in that quarter which I think is the first time he’s really truly vulnerable he drops down to a a round of 12 match against either Richard Figaro or Caleb Smith Figaro and him wrestled back in the who’s number one days when

They were in high school figs is really tough um Caleb Smith he’s beaten Caleb Smith so you’d feel decent about that matchup for break if he loses in the quarter you wrestle in the round of 12 I think he’d win that and then he’d have someone like Jory vul or di austino or

Steo in that next match to determine the placement so I think either way top side bottom he can go on a Deep Run he’s got a a really solid path to make the finals he’s got a path to make a Deep Run as it stands I have him losing in the

Semi-final round to kamacho and then loses in the next ra match to Luke stannic but if he can avoid stannish I think stanch may be a really tough match up for Drake um I think he could go on a run to that third fourth place match so all in all not a

Bad match uh not a bad draw for Drake Ayala at 125 pounds he’s um I think he’s set up pretty well there actually uh we’ll move to 141 actually the weight of real woods now real is a returning National finalist and I thought for a three seed this is is a great draw

Because you could have seen a scenario the three gets the six in their quarter if you had someone like Brock Hardy or Sergio limy in that quarter be a lot tougher matchup as it stands it’s going to be laa mcneel who he’s wrestled before he won pretty solidly so I feel

Like real is not going to be too vulnerable till the semi-final match because as you look at it but as I say that round one for your Hawkeye fans have you a little nervous because this is Klay Carlson who beat real woods I want to say last time they wrestled which was

Some years ago 2021 I believe NCA back when he was at real was at Stanford but Carlson is a two-time allamerican he is stingy he’s really strong it’s not someone that’s gon to get blown out by real woods I wouldn’t suspect so tough round one match for Real woods so that’s

Not ideal but you take that tough round one but this round two Hines or Vasquez you feel great about real there laan mcneel or Josh cant you’d feel great about real there I mean it wasn’t a tough too tough a match for him at the salute and then you got Bo Barlett

Someone you have beaten before uh and you got to beat him again and it wasn’t a good match at Carver Hawkeye Arena but he can make the finals here and and end up being the national champion that that can’t be discounted as the reality now should he lose to um let’s say worst

Case scenario he drops a match to to lack mcneel in that quarter he would have someone like Brock Hardy uh in the round of 12 and that or Sergio limy one of those type of guys so really really tough round of 12 match should you drop that quarter so that winning that

Quarter is essential for real woods not essential ideal right because you don’t want someone as tough as Brock Hardy or Sergio lmy just to place and if you win that one you have someone like the path gets navigable you have kale happle then maybe someone like Anthony aim India

This is getting down the line on the backside and there’s so much variability there but this is what it sort of looks like on paper for real woods um should he lose in that quarterfinal round as it stands I think he loses in the semi to

To real or to B where he’ll face uh so he’ll drop down to that constellation semi against I think Sergio limle could be Ryan Jack um could be Cole Matthews but I think it’s probably lmy and I think real wrestles back and gets third

So all in all not a bad draw for real woods path is there for him to make the final I think if things go poorly I think he’s still got a great opportunity to place and place very high at 141 scoring essential team points for the

Iowa Hawkeyes at 141 is they’re in a dog fight for a for a trophy this year okay we’re looking at 157 now for the Hawks and I I mentioned Jared frenck he got the 10 seed and on the one hand it’s sort of like real where his first round

Matchup Joey Blaze that’s tough Joey Blaze beating pton Robin Ed Scott this year the uh eight seed and the four seed so this kid is is no joke and that’s a tough match up but I think Franck wins that match and then I think it maybe little more navigable against pton

Keller in round two and then I he’s got jakori teamer who he’s wrestled close in the past and then you know Meyer probably Waits or braon Lee or even Cody chittum cardinus in that other semi but for franic I think this is a pretty

Decent draw for him and as I look at the backside options I don’t think it’s realistic for Fran to make the finals it could happen right I think avoiding Levi Haynes is is important and he looked pretty good at at conferences even though he had to Forfeit out I think

He’s reasonably healthy I don’t think there’s a ton of concern there but if he loses in round two to Payton Keller his path back is treacherous and it’s if he’s losing to the pton Kell it’s it’s a long shot for him to place he’d def to go through Chase salate then likely

Vinnie zerban or Teague Travis then Bryce andonian potentially in the round of 12 it if it’s not andon it could be someone like Ed Scott or Ryder Downey so that’s that’s just to get to the round of 12 um so really really hard if he loses in round two I really don’t think

He does I think he makes that quarter against jakori and if he drops that one someone like Blas or Downey in the round of 12 that’s winnable but tough I mean that’s a guy he lost to in blockas um and then potentially pton Rob or Bron

Lee in the next round so a lot of really competitive matches that’s the way this this bracket is with 157 is the deepest weight in the country so he’s just got to stay topside as long as he can right if he can beat jakori teamer that changes things then he’s got will Lewan

In the constellation semi he can beat will Lewan and then it’s potentially someone like Ed Scott um pton Rob wrestling for third so that’s the path for Jared Franck not too bad for a 10 seed remember a 10 seed this is not that bad of a draw I think it’s it’s

Something where um there’s hay to be made for for Jared Franck out of this weight class all right 165 you got Michael cendo uh again I like his path especially to make the quarters I feel I feel pretty certain he’s be wrestling in that quarterfinal round U I think his

Opponent could be Julian Ramirez now I’ve gone back and forth on this match I think he can win it and and punch his ticket to the semis but there he will go no further because Mitchell Messi B Loom so you’re looking quarters or semis are kind of the cap for Michael cander I

Don’t think he can go any higher than that looking on the backside if he makes the semi and loses to Mitchell he’s gonna have like Dean hamdy or and da and if he beats him David Carr but I think he probably lose to hamdy right so probably wrestling for Fifth and six and

I feel like all pass here as I’ve looked through this bracket feel like all pass lead to cando wrestling for that fifth and sixth place match whether he wins in the quarter or the semi I feel like that’s the way it’s going so if he loses in the quarter someone like antell

Taylor in the round of 12 then camam me next round he’s beating him and then he’d have David Carr in that constellation semi so he’s looking at either hamy or Carr in that constellation semi I don’t think he’s beating either of those guys so wrestling for Fifth and six so it feels

Like he’s on a pretty well- defined path even if he makes a semis while that’s you want that guaranteed All-American points I feel like either way losing in the quarter to semis we’re GNA see a pretty similar outcome for uh Mikey calando so that’s my read on 65 for the

Iowa Hawkeyes and calando as we move to 74 I think Kennedy for the 12 seed I think you love where he’s sitting now nothing’s easy out of the 12 but if you if there’s a five seat in the bracket of any weight you can choose to have I

Think it’s Philip Coniglio just based on what we’ve seen from kigo at ew where he took two losses um and that’s who Kennedy would have in round two and I think that’s a match he’s going to win I think he’s favored in it now it gets a little more interesting in that

Quarterfinal round against Shane Griffith who whooped him no doubt in that dual meet a little closer I think next time but Griffith’s hurt so there’s a reality where Kennedy wrestles in the semis I don’t think you can rule that out given the the health concerns with with Shane Griffith but he’s capped at

The semi I don’t think he can beat Carter stra I don’t think he can beat Makai Lewis uh one of those guys is going to be waiting in that semi-final round so Kennedy’s capped at the semi he could make the quarters he could drop in

Round two if he drops in round two I still feel all right about it although I’d be surprised if he drops in round two it’s a someone like Danny was then Brody Conley Linx wock in the round of 12 I think he beats those guys and then

I think it’d be someone like Edmund Ruth or Roco Welsh in that first uh All-American round and Ruth he’s already beaten Welsh he didn’t so if Ruth you’re feeling a little bit better about but that’s if he loses this is all if he loses in round two if he hits that

Quarter he’ll have someone like MJ gon or Braden Thompson in the round of 12 um and then round after that it could be it’s the Makai or Carter Terra loser so that that points to potentially a a Seventh Place wrestling in the seventh place round for for Patrick Kenny which

Still you take out of the 12thc but I think honestly if he loses it’s weird though if he loses in that second round he’s actually sort of set up better to go on a run but there’s so much more risk there too because you have to win

So many more matches to place two extra matches on the backside to get to that All-American round but after All-American round it clears out a little bit it’s um l it’s as I mentioned Linux wak and Edmund Ruth so winnable navigable so that’s 174 for Patrick

Kennedy 197 this is the start of the tough draws now Glazier has been incredible this year for the Hawks the the number one story for the Iowa Hawkeyes this year is the performance of Zach Glazer at 197 and for his efforts he earned a seven seed but he’s going to

Be challenged he’ll be challenging in round one against Andy Smith of Virginia Tech not an easy out and then in round two he’ll have a rematch against Silas Allred who he majored so that can give you encouragement if you’re an Iowa fan but he’s also Silas aled’s been looking

Really good um he got third at Big 10s uh Zach got second and I think this is not going to look like the major decision we saw last time around now should Zack win there he’s capped he’s not going be on the quarters because I don’t think he can beat Trent highy

Right so whether he he’s going to lose in either in my opinion round two or the quarterfinals on the top side so what do those two passs look like well if he loses in round two to Silas someone like Cole heris Joey Novak and then he’s in

The round of 12 where I think he’s gonna face rocky Elum now it could be Michael beard it could be Jacob cardinus those are all tough matches so if he loses in round two to alled it’s a really tough round of 12 matchup it’s going to be a

Combination of Rocky Michael beard or Jacob cardinas that’s rough that’s just a rough rough draw now should he win and beat Silas alled which I think is going to be close to essential it’s a little more navigable I think it’s someone like he’ll get the vulker cardinus winner in

The round of 12 and you don’t have those extra two matches you have to wrestle just to get to the round of 12 if he beats uh cardinus which I think is a tough match up for Glazier to be honest uh is someone like Jackson Smith who

He’s already beaten so you can see we’re all past sort of he’s he’s all but guaranteed to wrestle in the round of 12 and the combination of wrestlers he’s going to have to beat in the round of 12 are I think tough matchups for Zack Glazer so while he’s had a great season

The path he’s gonna have to make his own path here and he’s G have to win a match that I think it’s gonna be tough for him uh to earn All-American honors for Iowa so that’s a tough one for for the Hawks because he’s been such a positive story

133 now we’ll look at for for Brody tesky he’s another one he’s pretty capped here Derek Cardinal in round one Cardinal’s tough I think Brody will win but I would not look past that that matchup if he loses to cardinal let’s play that out he would have Max Lee then Nick

Bakis potentially then Julian kleo karini losable matches after that first one really I mean there some really hard hard wrestlers to beat just to get to the round of 12 where I think he’ll face someone like Kyo reinii or veto aruo so really tough set of uh matches there for

Brody if he lose in round one if he lose in round one there there’s not great hope for you now if he loses in round two which is what I predict will happen uh because beyond that he would have to to go to make the quarterfinal he Brody

Would have to beat Ryan Crookham I think we that doesn’t seem realistic right so Brody losing in round two braon brown uh is his first match in the wrestle back that’s a tough match Braxton Brown is tough he’s talented he can score next up would be nir Bailey or Aaron Nagal in

His second wrestle back match this is before the round of 12 so he’d have to beat Braxton Brown and ngau Bailey just to get to the round of 12 where he’s going to get the loser of Dylan schaver Dylan ragis if you’re I don’t know I think you’re probably hoping for schaver there

If you’re Iowa because he was right there to beat him at Big 10 but that’s just to get to the round of 12 so this is not great but bro is not been great this year he’s been solid he’s had moments but it’s looking like there’s

Not a a great path for Brody tesy to place if you’re looking for one he needs to win that first one then he’s got to somehow get by nir Bailey or Aaron Nal it’s uh it’s it’s treacherous it’s treacherous either way for for Brody 149

Caleb RI on the one hand he’s got Jordan Williams round one a guy that he lost to in the regular season on the other Jordan Williams might be injured he 4 or he injury defaulted out of his big 12 final so how healthy is is a question so

Fori he can lose in round one or round two I don’t see him getting past Caleb Henson in round two Henson is a this is a not he’s a title Contender and R’s been tough but I’m not sure we’re ready to put him in in Caleb Henson Strat so I

Think he’s losing in round one or round two now if he Los in round one he’s going through Alec Martin Dylan demilio Willie McDougall then Casey sworders round of 12 actually not the worst path if you lose in round one I think I I could see a

Scenario where he wins all those matches now demilio would be a tough one demilio’s demilio is good and of course Casey swerski absolute dog and that’s but for it’s cayb RI he’s he’s seated what is he seated 13th you know that’s a that’s a hard match right so when you

Consider that it’s nothing but tough pass for a 13 seed now should he win that first match and then lose to Hensen it’s zargo Ethan Miller and then someone like Kyle Parco or KAC in the round of 12 if it’s KAC on the one hand you beat

Him on the other hand quak beat you pretty good the next time around so I don’t know what you’re feeling better about you probably want to just um stay topside as long as you can but I can’t lie if he loses in round one the wrestle

Back path is not not too bad for RI but either way it’s going to be tough for him to get on the podium um there’s no two ways about it all right next weight heavyweight Bradley Hill um going to be tough for Brad and I think you know him

Making it to NCA is kind of around where expectations were coming into this year and I don’t think he’s going to go beyond that I think he’s got a tough first round match against Owen trein and it’s interesting because I think NC State and that’s where trein goes and

Iowa are gonna be in a dog fight for that second third third fourth battle um so this that could be a key matchup but trin’s going to be favorite there so I don’t see um Hill getting too far beyond I think he could beat Keaton cleever after

Losing in round one and then uh but Tay Gali potentially looming in that second wrestle back so not a great it’s not really the draw for Bradley Hills is kind of what he’s been this year and um so yeah that’s the that’s the draws for

Iowa some good it was more good than bad um I know we’re in on kind of a sour no I’m kind of regretting how I did that but um either way the I think the Hawks are in a decent position to um to contend for a trophy despite the fact

Don’t get caught up in the Ninth Place projected points I I I went through and did every match result I think the Hawks by my projections which are just mine um they’re not the seeds I think they’re going to be right there in that top four dog fight and I think they’re

Potentially be bringing home a trophy so