Iain MacMillan and Cody Williams are back in action this golf season breaking down their best bets for the PGA Tour each week. This week, they’ll be breaking down their best bets for the Texas Children’s Houston Open.
-Top 20
-Top 10
-Top 5
-Winner
-“Closest to the Win”
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E hello everyone welcome to Green on the greens it is the Texas Children’s Houston open myself Cody Williams back for another week uh as the PJ tour heads to Texas for a short two event swing before uh the Masters at Augusta here in just a a couple of weeks uh recap once
Again last week valbar Championship I’ll be honest I watched very little of this tournament because of March Madness and I think that was probably the case for most people um but it did happen uh and I did have a slightly losing week I did give out One winner top 20 Taylor Moore
Plus 250 that did come through to us uh lost Maverick mcney lost Nick Taylor top 10 top five Justin Thomas uh 14 to1 I think he was a live favorite heading into the weekend or at least at some point either early Saturday or late
Friday um and then he was like oh yeah I forgot that I don’t know how to putt anymore and then uh completely collapsed on the weekend so he fell off uh pretty quickly there uh Cody you did not bring the sage this week no I could not and to
I told I you know I messaged you privately uh the bad vibes even continued to my shopping habits because I couldn’t even find Sage to buy to Burns so yeah it’s uh another losing week for me uh missed across the board I was close on at least one but uh Victor
Perez top 20 he missed the cut great job out there Frenchman uh Brian Haron uh top 10 he missed the cut as well thanks for all that ball striking at uh the players really showed up at the V Spar I was close on a Christian bazo uh top
Five at plus 900 but he ended up finishing in the top 10 which pays to go to fansided.com because that’s the pick I gave out there with my pick column and then uh Doug gim he did not miss the cut but he was nowhere close to the lead uh
I believe it was top uh t67 is what he ended up finishing so yeah not great yeah we march on um you see you promised the sage you couldn’t get the sage the store wasn’t open um I I wish you the best this week but
Hey you’re adding on to your bad luck by then now not following through on burning sage oh I mean regardless of this week’s go this week goes well or not I will have Sage next week and it will be burned because the bad vibes
Even if I win a bet this week are not going away so we need the sage desperately all right uh main storyline I think this weekend about the Texas Children’s Houston open which from now on I’m just going to refer to as the Houston open because that’s that’s
That’s too much of a mouthful Scotty Sheffer uh number one golfer in the world is back in the field this week uh he’s coming off back-to-back wins he has gained Strokes putting in those wins uh and now this is a relatively weak field and I don’t remember the last time we’ve
Seen a go for this big of a favorite to win an event has anyone been this big of a favor to win an event since Tiger Woods I’d have to look into that a little bit maybe like John ROM at the Mexico open one of those years like I
Remember he was a big favorite but Scotty Sheffer plus 250 uh at that MGM I’m looking at right now um I’m trying to see some other sports books but it’s yeah plus 270 fan so like around plus 250 for Scotty sheffler so let me ask you this Cody how do we bet Scotty
Sheffler or how do we avoid losing bets to Scotty sheffler this week what is generally the strategy for Scotty sheffler because if he putts even average he’s gonna win again I mean I feel like you almost have to sprinkle on his outright odds like I feel like you
Have to do that at this point like I understand what those odds are and I understand that the implied probability I believe is like 27% or something like that so like I mean it is absurd but he is playing that well the numbers back everything up we’ve seen him gaining
With the putter as of late so like that was the one hole in his game that was the one reason he wasn’t winning so with the way he’s striking the ball right now I think you have to sprinkle at least a little something on his outright odds
Because I think I honestly when you look for other ways to bet him there’s nowhere that’s really that attractive to me and the only other thing I can think of is if you have a winner without Scotty sheff Market maybe get to there that’s what I was going to bring up most
Sports books if not all now offer outright picks for a tournament and then they offer otike without Scotty sheffler so if you don’t if you want to just completely avoid betting on Scotty Sheffer I think the move is to just kind of eat the juice a little bit here take
A little bit less value and bet on the market of without Scotty Sheffer because you could have the perfect pick and it might not matter because Scotty Sheffer might win this event by four strokes uh so I think almost every single sports book has that market now I know B MGM
Does for sure FanDuel does for sure those are just the two I happen to have open in front of me right now but yeah plus 250 where he’s listed if you translate that to implied probability he has a 28.57% chance of winning this event and to be honest I think it’s higher than
That uh I bet him I actually did bet him I’m not gonna give him o as a pick on the show because it’s almost just too obvious nobody wants I gave o SC a couple weeks ago what was it five to one uh 550 I think we got little yeah plus
550 and I think leading up to that I was like we’re gonna be like wishing for the days where he’s plus 500 plus 550 now here he is plus 250 I would love to have Scotty shuffler plus 550 this week uh I bet him at I did get three to one at
Caesars I don’t know if that price is still available uh and I put like three or four units on him I forget the exact amount but I just load it up on him and then if it wins then I’ll just take that and that would still be like kind of a
Small win compared to other PGA out rights and then I’m just going to you know obviously bet a full unit on some others uh and see where that takes me but yeah you can do the uh winner without Scotty sheffler those options are out there Harrison in the chat says
Bada has uh Scotty first round T10 ties included at minus 120 yeah that might not be bad but I feel like and I’m going to look this up I feel like Scotty Sher is not that great in terms of first round scoring though no he I feel like he’s more of a
Death by a Thousand Cuts kind of guy like he just methodically chips away where everyone else has more volatility to volatility to them yeah I agree I’m going to look it up PJ Tor has these stats which are I like looking at these when you want to
Give out first round leader bets or or place a first round leader bet um I actually took Alex norin this week first round leader because he’s first in the field in in round one scoring average uh and something tells me Klay is the best on the tour this year in round one
Scoring average but a sheffer’s still sixth so he’s still okay actually actually that’s better than I thought uh because it just kind of seems like he he like has a huge round on Saturday and then a huge round on Sunday but still yeah so if you want to do I mean
Especially with this week of a field uh of of a field this week if you want to just to uh first round top 10 minus 120 that could be another way to bet top 10 he said for the full tney is minus 350 how is that not value that’s 230 cents
Difference when most referring to how is the first round not value uh when most other golfers are 60 to 70 or is that just him getting pounded for total tourney yeah I don’t know uh it could certainly be that I’m glad you brought up uh uh full tournament top 10 because
As I’ve talked about on the show I’ve been rolling over full tournament top 10s uh for Scotty Sheffer um and was not making much profit by doing at most events when it was minus 165 and now this week it’s minus 350 so I don’t know
Do I roll over into a top five Instead at minus 165 or would just stick to top 10 and win like 20 bucks on like $160 bet or what I think that I think it’s up to $160 now after like four or five events I don’t know what to do I think
You gotta roll it into a top five because not only is Scotty Sheffer playing the way Scotty sheffler’s playing do you know who hold who is tied for the course record at Memorial Park Scot oh God in 2021 I believe it was in one of the rounds of the Houston open
Yeah I mean like this is of course he plays well so like it’s just I think top five is the way you roll that over also back to your point about the short odds uh Rah is the only other golfer since Tiger Woods to be sub three to one to
Win a tournament and that was at the Mexico open when he was defending his title in a very weak field I called that I didn’t even look into that I said John RW at a Mexico open because I do remember seeing that and being like that that’s crazy yeah I remember that as
Well I wanted to see I looked up to see if it had happened anytime prior uh prior to ROM since tiger and uh Justin Ray who I would trust Justin Ray with my with my life when it comes to golf stats uh he said that no one since Tiger has
Been sub three to one crazy uh Harrison says I’m following along with you on T10 on on the top 10 rollover but I did this week at a book with dead heat rules and jumped in early at minus 180 that might have been the move switch books and go
To a one that de has Dead Heat rules uh five to se so sketchy like he’s probably going to finish top five but I I think I might just stick to top 10 and just minus 350 with like 40 bucks and a $160 bet because if I do top five and he
Finishes like T6 I’m gonna feel like an idiot and I’m gonna say I should have just stuck to my word and done top 10 so I might just have to do for this week we’ll get back get Backus odds when it gets to the Masters like when it gets to
The Masters he’ll be back to minus 160 odds so yeah and I was going to bring up the Masters like the one thing that would sketch me out about top five even though I would probably go that route but you know maybe don’t follow my
Advice given how my year is gone but uh uh the one thing I would say about why top five would be risky is this is basically Master’s prep for Scotty Sheffer does he care if he wins the $1.6 million no he made 8.5 million in the last two tournaments that he’s played he
Does not care about this he cares about major championships and big wins so like there’s a chance that he just honestly does not care that much about this week it’s all about getting what getting what needs to be right right for the Masters yeah um yeah and speaking of the Masters
I believe because this event used to be hosted in the fall in November it’s now now uh and I was reading that they are setting up the course uh to have a similar kind of um uh layout as as Augusta so they’re trying to actually make this into a master’s warm-up so
It’ll be interesting how differently it plays now compared to when it’s usually held which is in mid November uh but with that being said unless you have anything else to add we can get into our picks Cody no let’s get after it all right top 20 who do you got I’ve got mty
Schmid who I can confidently say this is the first time I’ve ever bet on Matty Schmid but like I looked at him too I like it yeah he is I mean when I look at this course and what we’ve seen in history and like you said there are some
Unknowns with the event moving basically five months in the on the calendar 57 whichever direction you want to go but it is a bombers golf course it is much like the Mexico open and Farmers where it is a long track but rough is not going to be that penal the rough is I
Think they it was like one and a half inches of rough and that’s not going to grow out a whole lot over the weekend so like if you miss the Fairway I don’t care and Matty Schmidt is a bomber and he’s top 50 in driving distance on the
Season but he’s also played a lot of events where he hasn’t been able to drive the ball we watched him at the players in the Val Spar this season and he’s played well there but it hasn’t uh really played to his biggest strength which is off the te but on top of that
He’s top 45 in proximity from 200 plus yards out which is a big big key range this week you want those long uh there’s going to be a lot of long iron shots and he’s gaining 77 Strokes putting over his last eight measured rounds so I think
He’s really a nice fit for this for this week and I think he’s being undervalued at plus 350 because I think this is a course that just plays to all of his strengths all right I like it my top 20 I was deciding if I wanted to go top 20
With this guy or take him for close to the Wi oh by the way didn’t mention last week once again closer to the win are the best picks I give OD and I’m not even betting on these guys myself McKenzie Hugh is close to the win I gave
O and what he finished top five T3 something like that T4 I think it was yeah yeah T4 uh for a close to the win so if the only thing you’ve been doing while watching the show since we started back up the Phoenix was open was just
Take our close to the wins and bet them like top 20 top 30 or even some of them top 10 you’d be laughing right now uh so I did win close to the win Joel Damon did make the cut for you but I don’t think he did much on the weekend did he
No no his uh his putter is uh a tough scene right now yeah uh so I’ve have taken the the lead and closest to the Win 4 to2 with McKenzie Hughes this past week uh so I was considering the guy boo to give out for top 20 I was considering
Him to to take him close to the win um but I bet on him this guy to win out right as well at 150 to1 so I said for the show Let me give out a top 20 form Carl Yuan take him four to one top 20
Like I said I also sprinkled a very small amount on him to win at 150 to1 he had a great week last week finished T5 gain Strokes in all four major areas really what’s let him down for the most part this season is his putting his putting was completely atrocious there
For a stretch uh but he got back to about an average putter this past week uh and I think he is a great course fit uh he is long off the tea which is fairly important uh at this course he’s good with his long irons uh he’s really
Good around the greens which I hear is going to be big this week specifically with kind of how they’ve done the roughs around the greens uh to help prepare people for the Masters so I think that’s going to be big uh and he did have a solid performance he finished uh t35
Here back in 20 22 which was the 2023 season but it was in the fall swing of uh so November 2022 so uh if you’re looking for a complete off theboard long shot to either sprinkle on to win take top 20 like I am at 4 to1 take top 30
Top 40 uh I like Carl Yuan I’m gonna hope that he can carry some momentum from a T5 finish last week into this week into a corus that I think actually fits his game a little bit better than valur did oh yeah absolutely and also one of the most interesting golf swings
In on the PGA tour to watch he uh does not swing like a normal human being that’s for sure yes so uh fun guy to tier four as well uh your top 10 BET is a guy who we have picked a lot this season we did not pick him last week and
Then I thought we were going to get screwed because he had a two-stroke lead heading into uh Sunday he ended up blowing it uh but you’re back on him for a top 10 this week so we’re not asking too too much uh breakdown way like old cashmir Keith yeah Keith Mitchell plus
300 for a top 10 and you know maybe he can play a full weekend uh well because the past two have been atrocious he blew up on the players he was in contention like I believe he was inside the top 10 going into the weekend at the players
And then just completely lost everything and a lot of it’s been a short game because the one consistent thing that we’ve seen from Keith Mitchell and why I’m on him again because I can’t look away from ball striking is the way he’s driving the ball and the way he’s
Hitting his irons right now 1.68 Strokes gain ball striking over his last 20 rounds and even with like it completely imploding on Sunday he lost 4. five Strokes with a short game on Sunday at the V bar still finished t17 so like that’s how well he’s striking the ball
Right now and maybe I’m crazy which is completely possible given what we’ve seen on this show this year but it actually is promising to me that he blew up completely on Saturday and Sunday at the Players it was only one weekend day last week maybe we’re trending towards
Zero weekend days where he completely falls off the map he’s ball striking like a top player in the world right now all I need is an average putting week an average short game week for him to get there I think that he is trending towards something towards potentially
Contending to win for a full for a full tournament and so I’m going with the top 10 this week I can’t look away from how good his ball striking has been yeah his rounds have been wild I think it was Mexico it seems every tournament he’s
Been playing in he has one like not even bad round terrible round and then three good rounds or at least two good rounds because I think it was the Mexico open he actually the bad round was the first round he had a terrible opening round and then fought back and finished t19 on
The week so uh he’s just got a string together four good rounds and not or at least even if he has one off round it’s like shoot like even par instead of like five over um yes and then he he can he can win or at least have his name in the
Conversation so uh I’m glad one of us uh is on Keith Mitchell because um I wouldn’t be surprised if he if he finally puts it together for four rounds and wins an event yeah um my guy my pick for top 10 do you know who ranks second
On the PJ T right now in Strokes gain approach I do not hit me with it number F number one is obviously Scotty sheffler right I knew number one of course I’m taking the number two guy in Strokes gain approach this week oh my God we’re investing in some
Can Tom hogy ranks number two on the PJ tour and strokes gained approach um which was a little bit surprising to me but if you look at his profile he’s gaining significant Strokes every single week with his approach game uh but then he loses Strokes in one area and it
Kills him it’s mostly been around the greens which is where he’s been losing his Strokes which does make me a little bit nervous this week because I think around the greens is going to be big uh Players Championship he T he finished t-54 lost point6 Strokes per round
Around the green but 2.18 Strokes per round off the te which is atrocious which what killed him that week but before that he had gained at least a couple Strokes off the te but at the end of the day I can’t look away from a guy who’s playing in a weak field who’s
Second uh on the tour not just second in the field second on tour in Strokes gain approaches season his irons have been completely uh dialed in uh so I’ll take him to finish in the top 10 at plus 375 and you know when around the green
Play isn’t going to matter if he’s in the middle of the green every time he hits an approach shot right so you know like I mean around the green like I understand the importance of it and like yes it is going to be important this
Week but one of the things about it is is like it can be a little misleading like if you have someone who’s gaining that bigly on approach and they have one shot that misses the green or two shots and they they you know they don’t stick
It in close on their uh chip or whatever that’s going to really hurt their ground the green numbers but overall you’re still happy with that performance so that’s uh that’s one of my one of my big things with around the green play Yeah and I don’t think people uh have
Realized how well he’s been playing in terms of finishes uh t17 at the American Express this season T6 at Pebble Beach t17 Phoenix Open solo eth Genesis T12 Arnold Palmer Invitational so and some of those obviously big time events uh Pebble Beach uh was signature event Genesis signature event Arnold Palmer
Signature event and he’s finishing right around the top 10 Mark uh in all those starts so with a weaker field plus 375 for for h coin here uh I like it quite a bit yeah he loves the big money events apparently that’s what I’m seeing yeah
Uh all right top five top five I’m I’m getting a little aggressive uh but I’m going with Jake nap uh to finish top five at plus 800 uh when you when I’ve been looking at this course and what I know about the Memorial Park the two biggest comps I’ve seen from the 2024
Season are the Mexico open at Vidant and the Farmers Insurance open at Tory pans what did Jake Jake naap do with those two well he was T3 at farmers and he won the Mexico open I think that this is a course that ideally plays to his strengths like you look at what he’s
Done and the like at the players in the API his ball striking numbers went way down and that’s because there’s a lot less room for error off the T he’s long as can be top 20 in driving distance on the season but he’s not very accurate
That’s not going to be a problem here and when he’s playing out of short rough and when he’s playing out of the fair with his long drive his iron play really shines there he’s actually been a consistent Gainer around the greens and with his putting his short game is kind
Of underrated I think this is a perfect fit for him he’s gained 1.1 or excuse me uh he is gain he gained 11 Strokes ball striking at Mexico and 6.3 at Farmers I think that is really what plays into account here like when you think of what
You need to succeed there it’s distance and it’s long iron play that’s what we’re going to see from him this week and I think top five is very much in the question especially as he’s kind of falling off the ra are after two lackluster performances yeah obviously those like yeah previous two
Performances would would be the red flag about him but I mean three top five finishes uh since the Farmer’s Insurance and one of them a win and of course fit makes sense so yeah not going to argue too much about Jake knp I personally stayed away when I looked at him just
Because those those two recent starts make me a little nervous yeah absolutely but I mean I’m I think I’m getting a little bit of value there at a plus 800 number given that especially in this field yes I say that and also my top
Five pick is a is a guy who also hasn’t had two um very good starts recently so I’m just going to be a hypocrite today uh but I’m going to go uh Jason day to finish in the top five plus 500 um obviously a bigname guy that I don’t
Think a lot of people are giving a lot of love this week um he is fifth on the odds list to win or sixth actually um and I know he is coming off two bad performances t36 at the API t35 of the players before that though Ninth at
Genesis T6 at Pebble Beach and this is a master’s comp in terms of at least how they’re setting up this course then Jason day should do well because Jason day even though he hasn’t won the Masters uh does have a good history at the Masters and he was actually going to
Be one of my picks now that’s now going to depend on how he performs this week um if he doesn’t perform well I might have to get off Jason day for Augusta here in a couple weeks if he has a good performance this week I’ll definitely be
Be betting on Jason day um his approach game has not been great uh but he’s been good everywhere else uh he’s been driving the ball well his short game has been really good especially he’s putting for the most part this season uh has been really good and he has a decent
History uh at this course as well um if I can just bring it up I think I accidentally closed that tab uh but I think he has a couple top 20 finishes here at this event yeah uh it’s a t16 and a t7 yes t16 t7 t16 the last time
This event happened and then t7 uh when the Houston open came to this event in 2020 so uh yeah good course history the only thing that does concern me a little bit is the two recent starts but uh I think it might get back on track this week absolutely and uh speaking of
Master’s odds if you like Brooks kep at all you need to go bet him now because he’s 20 to one uh Master’s odds which feels uh disrespectful I think it’s probably the way I well how’s he been playing in uh in uh Liv because to be
Fair he I think he like won the last event before the Masters last year for Liv correct and then he had a good master so like I’m curious how good a form he’s in right now we’ll find out next week but I would be willing to take
That bet just because Brook Brooks Kea when healthy is all I’m really looking for is he healthy and he seems like he is and like we even when he was even when he was on the PGA tour it would always be a thing of oh Brooks doesn’t
Really look like he’s in the best form and it’s like he doesn’t care about these PGA Tour events he doesn’t care about live golf events he’s already got his money so right he just cares about the glory and if he does play well at uh at the next live event right before the
Masters his odds are going to get short so yeah that’s a good tip I might actually go bet that because I mean I would much rather bet Brooks kep at 20 to1 than Xander Schley at 20 to1 who’s also 20 to1 right now Jordan spe at 18
To1 Victor hin 18 to1 yeah I’d rather take Brooks absolutely sure um all right who’s your pick to win this week it’s sewu Kim 30 to one and let’s be clear Scotty Sheffer probably gonna win this event but his odds on BET MGM with uh without Scotty sheer are still 22 to1
Still like those and it just feels like something’s big is coming for seu he’s been a guy who traditionally throughout his career has just popped up big and he always shows you signs and his last two starts T30 at API T6 at the Players he’s
One of the best drivers on the PGA tour but one of the things I’m looking at is how well he’s just overall ball striking he finished T30 at the API when he lost more than eight Strokes putting that week that’s I mean that’s an impressive thing to do to lose eight Strokes
Punting and still finish top 30 and I he’s gaining one point one nine Strokes ball striking over his last 20 rounds but I think that that doesn’t really just or doesn’t really go to uh give him credit for how well he’s been striking the ball he’s gained more than 3.5
Strokes ball striking in six of his eight events in 2024 and on top of that when you look at the numbers the plus two uh the proximity from 200 plus yards he is above tour average there I think he’s one of the most accurate drivers of the golf ball with also having good
Distance he’s in the top half of the PGA Tour and driving distance I think it all just matches up to where he’s trending towards something big this week and I think he shows up and contends maybe he doesn’t beat Scotty sheffler but I think he’s going to be at the top of the
Leaderboard yep I like it uh I looked certainly looked at c woim um but for my winner I went a little bit of a different direction and it’s a guy who is actually a pretty popular pick this week and I actually got him a 25 to1 I
Don’t know if a 25 to1 is available out there anymore uh I don’t think Soh because even now I’m looking at bmgm he’s 20 to1 uh PGA or FanDuel oh he’s down to 16 to one that FanDuel so I got a good number on this guy early in the
Week um search around I don’t have all the sports books in front of me see if you can get like 22 to one somewhere maybe uh but sah fala is going to be my pick to win especially I love him at 25 to1 which I was able to get him on once
Again uh early Monday morning uh he is actually playing extremely good golf and not enough people are talking about it his last four starts fifth t37 at genis is not great but then t 69 uh so three top 10 finishes in his last four starts and uh
Two of them were Signature Events in the Phoenix Open uh had a pretty solid field as well so he has been playing extremely good golf his putter is off the off the charts his putting is his approach and uh at the LA at his last start of the
Players gain 1.19 uh Strokes per round with his approach game and this uh this course seems like a great fit for him as well he checks every single box that you want for an outright pick um he’s long off the tea he’s played this uh course
In the past he hasn’t had extremely good success um but at this event saah has finished 22nd and 61st so 22nd the last time um and I don’t even know if he had his tour card when in 2021 when he got the 61st so 20 22nd is last time so he
Has some course experience course fit great form check check check check check um sa theala and who I like to and I’ve talked about this website in the past data golf which is where I do most of my research uh their pre-tournament model has saw a third on the odds list behind
Only Scotty and Windom so and I think their model comes out Monday night and at least from what I’ve seen the odds change right after the models come out so I think that’s probably why Saw’s odds dropped uh or got better whichever way you want to look at it but I got him
At 25 to1 I like him 20 or 20 or longer I like s this week yeah and uh go bet it now because BMG at 20 to1 is the only place with uh 20 to1 are better FanDuel DraftKings bet Rivers bet 365 all those are all 18 to one or lower um honestly
He’s probably my favorite play for the without Scotty sheffler Market where he’s 16 to1 on B MGM because that’s not that much you’re not losing that much value especially in comparison to other books so I would take a look at that for sure but you already know I’m in onth
This week I you know he was I was going to play him for a top five I believe but I like the winner pick like I think that he is a perfect fit for this course and he has he has solved a lot of the problems that were with his game one of
The biggest being his inconsistency like he was just so volatile from round to round and I think he has really raised the floor quite a bit so I love him this week yeah I just check Caesars too Caesars is all the way down to 12 to1 um
So yeah 20 to1 at bet MGM go bet that because even that compared to the rest of the market is um is a good price and if you’re going to sign up at B amgm go click on one of my articles at bside and click an affiliate link please there you
Go and maybe one day this show will be sponsored by B MGM because we do like B MGM because they do pay all ties in full exactly um all right so saala um sorry 25 to1 is no longer available 20 to1 I still like him at that price if it’s if
B MGM goes too short shorter than that I don’t know if I’d play him much shorter than 20 to1 um all right let’s do close to the win I got a 42 lead and close to the win uh if this is your first time watching the show we both pick a golfer
Who’s at least 100 to1 odds are longer to win and whoever finishes further up the leaderboard AKA closest to the win H gets a point that week so it’s just a way for us to uh give you some guys that we like who are completely off the board
It’s completely up to you if you bet them uh and how you bet them uh based on how they’ve actually done for us this year you should bet them uh top 20 uh bet MGM I know as top 40 Market uh which you can probably get plus money on these
Guys I know some sport Sports books have top 30 markets uh but actually this season I’d say the best picks we give out have been close to the win so uh who’s your close to the win this week he’s a guy who I’ve chosen in the past
Yep and it was another guy it was between like I basically flipped a coin between him and Matty Schmid for top 20 and closest to the win much like you but uh Robert McIntyre Bobby Mack uh just like the way he’s playing the players was a disaster ball striking wise but
I’m not worried about it because five of his last six measured events he’s gained ball striking and once again going back to the course comp of Mexico he finished T6 at Mexico and more importantly I think that it really gave me a lot of faith in him that he gain he finally
Gained putting on bermudo last week at the vbar when he had another decent finish but more importantly I said that that 200 plus yard range on approach was very crucial he’s first on the PGA tour in proximity from 200 plus yards out so I really love his fit here I think that
We’ve seen him play well in this type of golf course especially with the short rough I think that Bobby Mac at 120 to1 is someone who I would definitely consider for a top 20 I’m going to look up his top 40 odds you give me your closest to the win
Though yeah that T6 is when I picked him to finish close to the win so hopefully that carries over um so I talked asked you earlier who was second on the PJ tour in Strokes gained approach uh it was Tom hogi one obviously Scotty Sheffer three Shane Lowry um you will
Never get this but I’ll give you an opportunity to guess who do you think is number four right now on the PJ tour and strokes G approach uh let’s go with Parker cooe no uh Ryan Moore is fourth the PJ tour in Strokes gained approach he jumped up I
Think 27 spots if this is right just from last week so uh if I’m G to bring up his profile here he must have just had a massive week with his approach game last week but that makes me like this bet even more uh yeah he did he
Gained 2.3 2.32 Strokes uh per round with his approach game last week finished T5 at vpar so another guy like a Carl Yuan I think they’re both T5 last week the valpar both had very good uh tournaments with their approach game and that’s good enough for me when I’m
Looking at someone 100 to1 odds um or longer um does Ryan has did Ryan Moore play here uh yes no he did not this is Ryan Moore’s first time playing this event at least since since it moved to Memorial Park but uh obviously great form if he
Can carry his form even a little bit from last week into this week he’s going to be uh if you want to sprinkle at something like a 100 to One Long Shot or take a guy like him top 40 uh that’s a good enough reason for me sometimes you
Don’t need to dive too deep into Data sometimes uh it’s literally just find a guy who’s in good form who’s still at super long odds yeah sometimes it’s that easy and that’s what I’m trying to do this week actually most of my close to the win picks I underthink them and they work
So plus 130 finish the top 40 maybe we think too much Ian maybe that’s our problem we might but uh both these guys are plus 130 to finish Top 40 on BET MGM go bet them both just one of them finishes in the top 40 that’s it and
You’re walking away with a profit yeah exactly so and with how these picks have going you might cash both so yep so there you go um I don’t know last week we didn’t talk LPGA I’m not going to put you on the spot and have a pick unless
You do but there was a golfer this week on the LPGA that I want to quickly talk about if I can please go ahead and I I do not have a pick you’re correct there so last week I didn’t give out any pick I two golfers finish uh t eight runan
Yin uh had the solo lead heading into the 18th hole in the third round she triple bogied and then just did not bring it together uh for round four Nelly CA ended up winning but there’s a golfer that I need to bring up to the good folks here this week who was
Available a 30 to1 at Caesars I think 28 to1 at bet MGM uh I bet 30 to1 at Caesars it is allice and Lee um and I am betting on three different women with the last name Lee this week coincidentally uh but Allison Lee listen to this last week at last week fear
Hills Siri pack Championship she gained 27.9 Strokes on the field from Tia green 16 more Strokes from Tia Green in the next closest golfer oh my God how the issue was she lost she lost 15.8 Strokes on the green oh my God I have never seen someone play
This well with their approach game and this bad on the greens she gains 16 more Strokes than the next closest go for Tia green I didn’t watch this event but she must have just been striping the ball and then just like missing five foot putts every single hole so I’m betting
On her 30 to1 if she could even like just lose like five Strokes instead of 15.8 she would have ran away with it this past week like her te to Green play like I’m questioning if there if there was an issue in the stats when they uploaded it on on lpga’s website because
I don’t know how someone can physically gain 27.9 Strokes on the field from Tia green that doesn’t make sense to me no that’s I mean that’s one of the most absurd stat profiles I’ve ever heard in any sport ever like I like I can’t even
Like fathom that I’m going to look it up to see if it’s changed maybe it was a glitch but she did end up finishing T3 um and like I said instead of like 15 losing 15 Strokes on the green if she would have lost like even 10 Strokes on
The green instead she would have won this event so uh let me look this up one more time to make sure they haven’t fixed this since then um well it’s not a good sign that I go to look up the stats and they’ve taken down the tournament stats from last week
Not not a good sign these stats were up this morning I made my picks based on these stats and now the stats are no longer posted on LPG his website so maybe it was a glitch I’m now concerned because all my all three of my picks
Were B well two of the three were based on stats from last week so that’s concerning uh stay tuned maybe that was a glitch because gaining 27.9 Strokes Ted green doesn’t physically make sense but going on the underthinking she finished T3 last week she’s in great
Form no matter matter how she did it it’s great form so we love to see it I mean if I what if I just go to like her personal profile I wonder if they’re still on there no uh no they have been all of yeah her stats yeah removed it’s all
Been removed oh no oh no this is going poorly regardless she finished T3 she’s in good form so that’s going to be the pick I’m going to give out on the on the show for this week 30 to1 28 to1 depending on where you look Allison Lee
To win the Ford championship this week love it I’ll ride it with you all right let’s go I trust you you’re the PGA sharp of the century so I appreciate that let’s go let’s let’s get a second win in 2024 um all right that’s our show uh
Thank you so much for watching next week is the Valero Texas open yep TPC Craig Ranch perfect uh Cory Connor defending champ yep and your boy KH Lee TPC Lee always plays well there as well so might be might be closes to the win next week
Or maybe a top 20 we’ll see oh no he’s going to be like 30 to one the odds makers know that when you get uh PPC Lee out there it’s it’s all bets are off fact um all right any final thoughts before we close things though no man
This is gonna I think I’m excited to see this golf course I like I think that it’s a different brand of golf than what we’ve seen the past few weeks like bombers have been kind of you know they’ve been kind of kept in the stables for the past few weeks and we’re gonna
Get to see them Let it Fly this week so that’s always fun yes um and I will now be able to watch the this event because there’s no college basketball during the day because it’s now sweet 16 so all games are at night so I will be watching
This event which I’m looking forward to so and like I said I am on Alex norn first round leader too do you have any first round leader I’m not a first round leader guy I not either but I’m I’m sprinkling on norin this week my favorite first round leader guy is uh I
Think it’s Chris Towers or Chris or some Chris I can’t I can’t place it but he throws a dart at a dart board and that’s how he picks his first- round leader bet oh yes yes yeah so I that’s how I feel about first- round leader bets it’s a
Dart throw yeah it is completely a dart throw it’s yeah Christopher Powers at CP at CW 14 yeah that’s yeah because it is a dart throw quite literally for him um all right thank you all so much for watching subscribe to the bsid of YouTube channel um and we’ll be back uh
For the Valero Texas open next week and then the Masters can’t wait take care Gambler blessed good luck with all your picks goodbye friends
