Houston Open PGA Tour Preview and One-and-Done golf picks!

#OneandDoneGolfPicks #PGATour #GolfBettingPodcast Our top golf picks include One-and-Done options for the Houston Open on the PGA Tour.

To follow Jared on his golf X account, click here… https://twitter.com/SmolaGolfBets

You can also follow Jared on his personal X account at https://twitter.com/SmolaDS

You can follow our channel on X at https://twitter.com/primesn

So we know about sheffler now we got the next two actually the next three players we all have so that’s tipped you off on who I’m picking so I’m taking Windham Clark uh and I’m basically just taking him I’m putting uh I’m just putting a little bit

Of money on them um but I I just like the way that he’s trending here he’s gotten better each time including his five under par 16th Place finished last year I think that’s nice considering he doesn’t have a whole lot of experience on a lot of different golf courses like

That so I think that’s something I want to take advantage of and and again we know how hot he is and I think it would be now look he did win a pebble so it’s not like he hasn’t won this year but you know it wasn’t a four- round win um but

I still think it would be nice for him and I’m sure he would really like to get another win heading into major season but anyway I just like him on the golf course um which is why I’m going to go ahead and take him and the other thing

Is is I got Sheffer at two or 3 to one and I’ve got Clark who’s now 12 or he was 14 to1 it’s like that’s a big difference that’s why I was like wow you know I can get window because I actually thought wind Clark could have been like

Eight 8 to1 to tell you the truth so I was like was at 14 to1 I grabbed them like that I was like yeah I got to take him and the same way that you might think about SE sheffler I was thinking about Clark where I was like well I’m

Getting 14 to one this is a weak field why wouldn’t I take them so that’s why I decided to you know I put 50 bucks on them I said why not I got him at 14 to one yeah I mean the clear second best player in this field again if we look at

Strokes gain total over the last three months it’s Sheffer number one it’s Windham Clark number two I’m with you I don’t think their odd should be this far apart I mean go back to the players they were separated by three millimeters right yeah Clark Clark’s put is you know

Three millimeters to the right they’re going into a playoff this is a long driver heavy golf course that I know he wed Pebble Clark did which was a surprise but you ideally want him on you know long heavy golf courses so it should be a really good fit for him and

Look Scotty has won a couple of big events he’s made a lot of money uh he goes away for a week let’s remember his wife is going to give birth in about a month or two so you know there’s potential distractions when you because you know you go back to back you know

There’s that’s all you’re focused on you go from one event to the other now you st you could go away so maybe I’m sure Scotty’s got bigger things on his mind than when into Houston open let’s just put it that way he’s got the mes coming up in a few

Weeks yeah we hope so I I hope so yeah so uh but you have theala and zalot torus as two of your three picks uh this will be the first time for zalot torus coming off the miscut at players and theala uh had a big difference from his

First to his second appearance uh he was seven overp par in his first appearance when he finished 61st in 2022 and I don’t want to get into the whole year season thing because it’s kind of screwed up it’ll screw up your mind if you think about it in Houston because of

The wraparound uh but the gala uh improved from 61st to 22nd from seven overpar to four underpar so that’s 11 stroke difference from his first appearance here to his second and he in his last appearance here he closed with a 64 which I believe

Was was the best round of the day so he should have some good vibes coming into this event I think he even lives um in the Houston area now um I went with these two guys because I I know it’s been a season of long shots and I know

That it’s a pretty um you know weak thin field to the top so maybe a long shot wins again I just think if sheffler brings even like his C game as long as he doesn’t bomb in order to beat him like it’s gonna have to be one of

These other like guys in the next tier like I think you know if seah or will play their a game and sheffler plays his B minus game like these these guys can beat Scotty sheffler so yeah so again talking about Strokes gain total over the last three months it’s sheffler one

Windham Clark 2 sahit tagala is number three in this field um top 10 at Waste Management API and the players he has re we talked about this last year I think so H tala’s weakness being off the tea just spraying it too much and he’s still

Doing it on occasion and that’s kind of what’s cost him a chance to win some of these tournaments is he’s he’s making too many like double bogeys because he he gets wild off the te but still in general he’s really improved his off the te game he was

134th last year in Strokes gain off the te he’s 25th so far this season in Strokes g off the te he’s still a good iron player he’s still an excellent putter um and he is um fifth on our list of you know top 10 players on difficult

Golf courses so I think siah is ready to win zot Torres coming off to miscut I’m not that concerned it was a bad putting week and a bad around the green week for zot torus at Players he still gain Strokes on approach um two 2.3 Strokes

Gained on approach of course he had come fourth at API second at Genesis 13th at farmers and his um three previous appearances so I I still think he’s close to a win and of course as I always say with Z torus I think the tougher the

Golf course um the better chance he has to win yeah I tell you the truth I actually would if I was taking one of the two I’d take the Galla this week uh he’s just really dialed in and playing as good as he’s ever played and um and

Again like I said he made a drastic move from his first appearance to his second like you said his last appearance uh on that Sunday was was a nice nice round so um yeah and and and I also like the strategy of taking because I do think

There’s a big difference once you get through the top four players I think there’s there’s then there’s a there’s a little Gap you got you got Sheffer then you got the then Sheffer and Clark you can go onew then you got zator and and theala 34 but then there’s a gap so I

Like this the um the idea of taking xotur and theala combining them and just hey one of them wins I’m in good shape because the odds I mean you’re getting almost even double than Clark and forget about sheffler so yeah so um not not a bad strategy to do that um

Meanwhile feno you look fow just loves playing Mexico and Houston and and this is like his part of the country um but he’s a defending champ so winning back toback not an easy thing I don’t know I’m not the only reason that I wouldn’t rule him out is just because he plays

Well in these types of events but he didn’t really play well at Mexico and he’s just not having a great year um and really hasn’t played all that great even though he’s won a couple of times in the last couple of years he hasn’t really that’s that’s really all he’s done is

Win those events he hasn’t really done much in that yeah he finally maybe figured out the putter too he’s actually gained Strokes putting in the last three events but now that the hot ball striking has kind of cooled off last week at bpar was easily it was it was the first time all

Year that he he lost Strokes T to Green he did so pretty convincingly so it’s like he figured out the putter but now you know that the ball striking is kind of cooled off so he just you just kind of can’t put it all together okay and

Then you got day who’s dropped to 22 to one actually day and Kim are on my board so Jason day at 22 see with Kim at 30 uh Jason I like the fact that he won Byron Nelson last year matter of fact he’s won the the Byron Nelson event twice so he’s

He’s won in Texas those two events he was seventh in this event three years ago 16th last year he’s playing well enough so I think that Jason uh if he’s going to have any chance at the majors and to have a really good year I think

It would be nice for him to get one of these types of wins first and seu Kim uh made an improvement from missing the cut his first appearance uh to 35th his second appearance one underpar nothing great but uh he was runner up at Byron Nelson last year of course in Texas he’s

Trending in the right direction sixth place is last uh go around and he’s made eight Cuts this year all eight Cuts with six top 30s and one top 10 being in his last event so I think this is a good time to take them yeah day and SEIU show up top 10 on

Both um Strokes gain on difficult courses and strokes gained in Texas day’s actually third on both of those lists so day and uh tagala are the two guys I’m considering for one and done this week yeah that makes sense because I’m same thing with me with day I

Already have played theala um but I could definitely see that uh and I would I would consider see with Kim as well because I don’t know how many people going to take him so I think he’s somebody that um could help you win this week and there’s one other guy on my

List that I I might consider but I probably won’t because he’s too unpredictable but that’s why I see Will Kim is someone that if you’re ever going to take him and want and done why not this week but could be Jason day okay so and then you have now you next grouping

Here I mean the all four of these next actually norin Mitchell Jagger and well let’s just go with those three they they’re between 35 and 45 to one and I think all three of them are good plays if you want to go in this area here because you had Mitchell last

Week I mean we have had like the worst luck with we had multiple uh third round lead we’ve had multiple third round leaders the two of us winning by multiple strokes and we and none of our guys have been able to hold on you had Mitchell last week with

A two-stroke lead into the final round and he completely plays like crap which is which is how our players have been playing when they go into the final round in great positions they just fall apart on Sunday yeah so but Mitchell Mitchell Mitchell made me want to quit golf betting last

Week through through three rounds he had gained like 12 Strokes t green and had lost like two and a half Strokes putting he was putting horribly but he was still up by two strokes he could have been up by five or six it wouldn’t have matter because he played so horrible on Sunday

That was I’m I’m sure Keith Mitchell is a nice guy that was one of the most pathetic Sunday rounds I’ve ever seen like I know the driver was off that’s one thing but then just iron shots weren’t good leaving putt short it was just a a pretty gutless performance by

Mitchell so like he’s playing excellent that’s why I bet him last week and like again the ball striking was still there prior to Sunday at at valbar but after seeing that Sunday performance I I cannot bet him to win a golf tournament right now I hear you it’s uh that’s the

Thing that would concern me as well because it’s like it’s not like he hasn’t won before and he’s played pretty well the last couple years at the early part of the season but it’s like dude you’re acting like you’ve never won anything in your life I mean that’s just

That was awful because that that that that was not a coincidence that it was Sunday and that’s just that some all in his head and he went to pot from the very first swing on on hole number one on Sunday so that’s the thing because Mitchell has trended well here including

Ninth last year he’s got four top 20s in his last five events but it’s hard to take somebody after the way they played on Sunday Last uh just a few days ago uh norin it could be interesting because how about this he went from a miscut eight over par to a

Fourth place eight underpar that’s a 16 stroke difference first appearance to Second he’s made 11 straight cuts on tour seven of those are top 30s three top 10 two top fives runner up is last two 19th and nine and he’s on your list so I think norin could be an interesting

Play Even though um not even though but he has played better in the fall but it’s surprising that he still is not had a PGA Tour win yet it’s just very surprising yeah that you know I starred norin on fantasy National on Sunday night when I was doing my initial

Research kind of hoping to see like a 50 or 60 to one on him when the odds came out on Monday morning but I I think he might opened at 40 now he’s down to 35 um it’s just too short yeah for me a guy

Who hasn’t won but he he is playing well I think he’ll play well think he’s a good you know maybe top 10 bet I think he’s someone to you know if you’re playing DraftKings to consider playing Alex nor I just I I can’t get on board

Um at at at 35 to1 yep uh joerger at 45 to1 uh also made a big deal uh move 35th in his first appearance at six overpar then ninth in his second appearance at six underpar he had a 12 stroke difference so whatever the I mean this

Apparently it seems to be because this has happened a lot here it seems to be a golf course that hey you know it’s almost like yeah it would be preferable if you played there once because the second time around could be a big deal so even if maybe if you see a player

That hasn’t played all that well in his first appearance at this golf course don’t shy away from taking him because you could see a big move in his second appearance but the problem with all of a sudden jger who had that big run of no

No no Miss cuts and whatever it was 17 events whatever and then as soon as it came to an end he’s now missed three out of his last five cuts so yeah you know I I want maybe it’s maybe it’s just Florida he didn’t like the Florida swing he did

Struggle putting in his last three um or maybe the hot streaks just over for Stefan Jager so yeah it’s not that he can’t win because even on the I think he I think in his in this run I think he does have a top 10 out of the last five

I believe yeah he finished third he finished third in Mexico Oh top five even better and that was Mexico so not not not a bad similarity here coming to Texas so again joerger at 45 to1 at least he’s 45 to1 compared to noren Who’s down to 35 to1 uh all right so and

Then let’s go now to one of my picks and that is going to be the next pick on the odds is going to be I’m I’m GNA I’m going to go with Hughes um I just think that uh he even mentioned it they even mentioned it in the broadcast because I

Know I had looked at his chart at the end of the year last year and thought hey you know what uh he’s not playing all that poorly matter of fact he had a runner up at RSM in the fall and now he’s getting out a nice run and he’s

Even admitted it that he’s close to really you know getting it and sure enough he almost had it I actually thought he was going to win last week I thought that he was like if I had to put a money on a live bet with a couple

Hours left in the in that event last year when he last week when he had that one-stroke lead I would have I would have pet him I just thought he was going to win he was playing the best at that time and then he just kind of fell apart

Late but he’s got three straight top 30s here one top 10 so that’s good he likes the golf course he’s trending really well had a really good showing last week and you’re getting 60 to one so that’s a big difference so that’s why I like him this

Week yeah I I think the number is good for a guy who’s playing well and it’s played well here before um I think with who you’re always kind of hoping the putter carries him which it did last week you gained 9.6 Strokes putting last week which is pretty absurd but um you

Know maybe maybe it can stay hot maybe you can chip in a few more times which I know he did I I’m with you when he know he chipped in on Sunday he made a super long putt somewhere near the turn I thought was just kind of his day but he

He fell apart on the back nine all right next up in the odds is your final pick your long shot Luke list and even though Luke does not have um a big history here except one top 15 uh and he hasn’t played particularly well in his last

Three events uh this is a tough golf course and Luke list does play well uh at tough golf courses so why did you like him though particularly this week who these oh I luk list just bumped up to 75 to on as we’re recording look at

That um yeah I just like him on tougher long courses I mean he won Tory Pines in 2022 tough long course he was second at Genesis just a few starts back tough long golf course look at the last 50 rounds in this field he’s 20th best off

The te 18th best on approach he’s third best in prox from 200 plus yards which you’re going to get a lot of those longer approach approach shots this week so it’s just the type of course where I think list could kind of pop up in Surprise as he almost did again at

Genesis you know just a few weeks ago all right and then uh another one of my picks is right there at 70 to1 now even though I got him at 80 to one and that is Joel Damon and Joel Damon uh has played here twice Fifth and Ninth so

That’s as good as it gets out of anybody that’s played here his last three events he’s played better because he had a bad run there for a while where he was just awful for almost uh six months or so but he’s starting to play better he was 11th

At Players not too long ago and maybe the most important reason to take Joel Damon this week is it would be the second it would be it’s the trend of the Gilligan hat and can can we get backto back Gilligan hat PJ tour winners can we go

From Peter Mady to Joel Damon and that’ll just start a whole new uh trend for young golfers everywhere that’ll be fitting for this season for sure get back to back you know I I’m glad you mentioned Damon because I hadn’t really pulled up his stats he’s playing even

Better than you might think these last two weeks because he’s still puted horribly last two weeks despite finishing 11th at the players and 49th at valpar the off the te and especially the approach game gained 5.2 Strokes on approach players gained 8.2 Strokes on Approach at valbar that is tied for the

Best approach event of his entire career wow so his irons are hot if he can just putt like field average get a hot streak at the putter yeah if you can just putt okay not be a disaster on the greens that’s a I like that bet well I don’t

Know what if you have any of that data now but let’s keep in mind when you finish ninth and fifth on this golf course I’m assuming maybe that you’re putting well here maybe he yeah yeah in uh 20 21 he gained 1.8 Strokes putting and in

2022 he lost half a stroke putting so basically field average so again if he if he can do that and and both times at Houston he’s had awesome approach play um so again if he can just if he can putt like he did his first two appearances and stay hot with the irons

I think he could be in the mix all right so Joel Damon keep an eye on him uh also um as far as the actually I think that’s just one more pick uh let’s just double check make sure yeah just uh one more one more pick oh that’s right I I didn’t

Carry that over and that is um I’m pretty sure it’s just Novak let me just go ahead and uh back on Novak yeah switch it no it’s not that was my last pick because Novak was part of my picks and then I just um I didn’t take them

But all of our picks are done so let’s talk about some of the long shots that we uh might consider and that’s one of them so definitely I I would I I would put a buck on Novak because he’s still playing really well for someone that’s

Getting 100 to1 I mean he’s 180 to1 to begin the week again and then he drops down to I don’t know how they keep putting him at 180 to one when he keeps dropping down to 100 you the last few times he’s got four top 20s in his last

Five now and three top 10 so I think Novak in this field I think Matty Schmid go back to him he’s still he’s still is playing well he was 17th last week so he’s got three straight top 30s and and Schmid is 150 to one

Um other long shots I put a buck each on uh dietre hubard Bramlett Yuan and Ryan Moore so those were shot y so I like ramlet he’s a bomber I think he’s had some success here I looked at um I looked at two Euros Ryan Fox who’s on on

The screen right here at 100 to one again he just popped as a guy who plays well on tough golf courses has one on the the DP tour um B Bobby McIntyre like I don’t know what happened to him he was on the Ridder Cup team like six months

Ago yeah he he hadn’t he you know he’s he’s interesting because a couple years ago there was a lot expected of McIntyre and then his game just didn’t follow he was just okay he just didn’t even in Europe when he was playing out last year

He didn’t do much but I think he had that momentum from the previous year that that’s why he made the Ryder Cup team and he did well but and he’s got a good game the problem is he hasn’t translated that to the golf courses yet

But and that’s and now he’s trying to do it on PJ tour so he didn’t play particularly well in Europe last year and now he’s trying to do it in in America I just that’s not a good you know method of success so but he’s talented um yeah

That’s that’s kind of my thing just a talent level for a field like this I think he was 13 to one last I checked two super bombs I looked at um Parker Cy one one of the Cy twins they’re Texas guys both hit it a long ways Parker’s

Been playing a bit better um I just think he’s a good fit on this course you look at you know two of the long courses he’s played so far this year 25th at Farmers you know at Tory Pines he was 24th at the Mexico open so I think this

Is the type of course you want Parker cou on and then the other guy was Rico Hoy Rico huy okay another bomber ball striking has been on fire lately the putter is bad maybe he’s just a bad Putter and that’s not going to change but I’m just looking at the ball

Striking numbers he’s a long hitter um you know he uh was 54th at Valar last week but again you know did make the cut gained on approach gained off the T um he was 250 to one last I checked so those are two of the longer shots I would I would consider

By the way Yuan who finished fifth last week in his last 14 events he has four finishes uh between fourth and sixth so he’s uh you know he’s a couple of shots away that guy chip in was it three times he chipped in on suay yeah something

Like that yeah come on 35th here last year why can’t I get one of those why can’t I get someone who chips in three times yeah right uh and by the way bramlet uh his best PGA Tour finish was at Byron Nelson in 2021 when he finished

Seventh and he and uh he went from seven over his first appearance here five over his second appearance and six under when he finished ninth last year so bramlet at 130 to oneish and uh Ryan Moore uh Ryan Moore maybe this is just a little maybe maybe it’s just one week but if

You look at it he played well well in the fall he had three top 15s and one top five in the fall and now he’s coming off to fifth place finish so you know mo is a decent player it’s just after a couple years his game has just gone to

Crap not sure what happened to him so he’s a Texas guy too isn’t he I don’t know I don’t know pretty sure he’s a Texas guy though and he was third at the Texas open in 2019 and runner up in 2008 at the Byron Nelson couple of Texas events hubard was

Runner up in this event the very first appearance he made 13 on the par then he went 50th I don’t know what happened to him when he got disqualified last year um but he wasn’t playing well anyway he’s not playing particularly well but he’s made all eight of his Cuts this

Year so you know he’s had experience on this golf course before you know we’ve talked about him uh earlier in the year you you you took him a few times um yeah so considering he does have a runner up here um and he hasn’t missed a cut all

Year maybe not a maybe not a totally bad idea by the way I also put a buck on KH Lee and let’s remember he went back toback in Texas at Byron Nelson and in his first appearance here he was six over par so maybe we’re gonna

Get one of those uh big dramatic shifts uh from cage Lee from his first appearance to his with second appearance and his last three PJ toour appearances he does have a ninth and a fourth so this might be good timing this week maybe you know a good fantasy play or

Somebody that if you want to get him in your top 10 uh that kind of thing uh you might be able to do well with Cally this week yeah that’s where I’m at with all these long shots like I think top top 10 bets I know it’s been a year of long

Shots but I I still think it’s going to be one of those top end players that that wins this week