Zach Trivett (titletown2121) & Kyle Marley (BigMarley3) break down their favorite MMA DraftKings and FanDuel picks and plays for UFC Fight Night. They also give you some strategy and process for how they plan to attack the slate.
#MMADFS #DraftKings #FanDuel #UFC #MMA #DFS #FantasySports #UFCPicks #MMAPicks #SHIPIT
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All systems go clear for lift Up oh baby we’re back talking fights 13 of them hopefully fingers cross 13 fights weigh in going everybody has weighed in what we just got Natan Levy is the only weight weight Miss thus far and it does not look like he missed by what like a
Half pound it looks like or something so yeah spe all 13 right now A couple more to weigh in feels a little weird though Marley going from UFC 299 one of the best cards we’ve had to a mediocre at best 13 fight card now I say that talk
In real life fight fan MMA gambling aside now we care about the gambling aspect making money I think it’s a good DFS card 13 fights of course my magic number is 12 13’s good two favorites I would say in a tier of their own we got Mike Davis minus 500 Kennedy minus 700
But other than that a lot of closely line fights and then the main events big boys high variant pretty much coin flip right there so uh our ownership is up and our projections are up on the site right now everything else will be coming up as well after the show but we have
Nobody above 50% owned if there is anybody I think it will be Kennedy we have at 49% but yeah I’m expecting a pretty fun card how you doing on this fine Friday afternoon big Marley yeah I’m good um definitely would be a card that I would skip if it wasn’t for DFS
But DraftKings is what is going to make this card fun uh I do think there’s a lot of ways to go on this card there’s no real favorites that I want to take a big stand on I think I want to go heavy on the main event uh but I think there’s a
Lot of close fights on this card so I’m looking forward to talking it out with you I might adjust ownership as we go I I was uh I I was like really close my first run and then I ended up throwing on the extra 10 or something that I
Needed but I almost hit you up and I was like where would what would you adjust with this because I was kind of struggling with my last adjustments but we’ll do that during the show hopefully we’ll be finalized by the end of it but looking forward to ship it shipping it
Yeah no I like a lot of this stuff you have the ownership up you adjust and we talk through stuff just like mine I have every spite done pretty much all my content is done but I don’t want to post it to the site yet because I I value
Obviously what you say and you changed my mind on some of this stuff too so love the tandem we got going what’s going on G Kyer hey I appreciate that wolf of Ball Street Red’s got Matt in here we appreciate those words very nice of you Monk MMA in here Ben’s in here
Sean sivin’s in here hope everything’s going well Ben we’ll be thinking of you um but yeah I’m excited for this one again 13 fights we appreciate that like button appreciate that subscribe button obviously a lot of you watch on playback hey just get it done now enjoy the rest
Of the show we greatly appreciate it and if you do want to join us at the nation no better time to get in PGA and man DJ you on that Wednesday stream that was awesome I see him in the Discord a little bit he said sack the am wave in the big chat
Yesterday am wave if you have the right guys looking pretty good right now no better in the business DJ Tambo hoop MMA of course we got going on NHL NBA MLB will be here before you know it and hey what I love about the merger you got MMA
Saturdays no NFL Sundays no free money Sunday right now unfortunately y’all got NASCAR though baby Saturday MMA big prize pools NASCAR big prize pools on Sunday all those Sports One Price and use that code Masters 15 get you 15% off you sign up for the month and one month
From now you will get Master’s content so make sure to use that promo code get you 15% off and again weekly monthly six Monon and annual packages over here head over shipping nation.com give it a try I always shout out big Marley but hey ownership is tough in this game MMA
Ownership means as much as pretty much any sport big Marley is had the best in the industry since our man sheets has been tracking so shout out you big Marley very important again that is on the site for shiping nation members right now let’s go fight by fight
Starting from bottom to top first fight of the night Char I’m gonna say oh man I was just I was just doing this [ __ ] too hold on hold on let me sound this one out like Charlamagne no that’s charapo is gregoria how about we go with that charz
Gregoria at minus 170 it sounds right it took me like eight seconds to really look at but I’m going to go trus gregori at minus 170 making his UFC debut taking on Chan and heler minus 170 is gregoria plus 145 is an heler this fight is minus
155 to finish gregoria plus 130 inside the distance Chad and heler plus 300 I’ll throw it to you right away to start this one off what are you doing in this one hey are we gonna get whatever we’re doing I hope it it works out as well as
The wood marose fight did last week because we I was I had a ton of that fight I think a lot of people did we recommended it and it was looking good marose early CER like there was plenty of pass for that’s to the optimal so I
Feel good I felt good about that and I hope you pick a winner right here for us in this first fight yeah last week started out great ended not great for me but started out the first handful of fights perfectly really uh but yeah this
One I I don’t like this first fight as much it is minus 155 to end inside the distance which is pretty solid but I do think that this Gregorio guy is just a little bit better I I think he’s a lot more aggressive with a lot more
Power in his punches I also think either guy could land a couple takedowns but I wouldn’t expect either one of them to be chain wrestling they’re both primarily Strikers so I expect this to be a striking match and if we’re not going to end inside the distance and we’re only
Mixing in one maybe two takedowns I don’t think either either side is going to score well in a decision and I think that is what put an heler in play is just if he could win the close decision at $7,300 he probably won’t be too owned I
Think he’s in play for that reason but I just don’t really like him and he’s like 37 years old now not really good at anything he needs to get a knockout to break the slate and even if he does win a close decision he might not 10x so I’m
Probably gonna get away from this fight but on the Gregorio side if he does have heavy hands if he could knock out andher which andher has not been knocked out yet so that’s the worry then he could make the optimal lineup and I don’t think he’s going to get a lot of
Ownership because there are a few people that are priced higher than him that I expect to soak up a good amount of it so I think he’s more of a pivot away from all the 9k range just that ownership alone like let’s say you could afford
Any of those 9k people if you just drop down to Gregorio and the rest of your lineup is somewhat chalky I think that makes some sense there so I’ll get a little bit of Gregorio exposure but this is a fight I really want to get away
From and hope that he wins with like a 75 Point score I’m glad I throw it to you first because I won’t have to talk nearly as much I see it literally the exact same you do like I like plenty of other guys in that
Upper 9k or the 9k range the upper 8K range then Gori in a vacuum but this fight is minus 155 to finish he is plus 130 inside the distance and you did mention his ownership he will I’m not going to say the ownership for every fight right now because we do have it
Posted so if you are a chip and Nation member go to the uh go to our website right now and click it I’m obviously ownership very important we’ll keep it premium this week I do usually say it out loud because we don’t always have it
Posted right before we do now so um I’m not going to go through that but yeah there’s no doubt gregoria is gonna be one of the lower owned options in that tier but I’m with you I mean I think rightfully so like we look who’s in that
Tier we got filo at 8700 we got do Garen we have those are both cheaper who are way better plays wrestling grappling fights that are supposed to finish gm3 9100 Kennedy Mike Davis Thiago Moises like all those guys are way way better plays in a vacuum money
Line inside the distance prop ETA Mike Davis not necessarily inside the distance prop but in terms of money line in terms of volume takedowns Etc we know he has the upside there so yeah I’m just using gregoria in lineups that I am pretty chalky in but yeah I my single
Entry and stuff like that definitely not going to get to to him I prefer Chad if I had to pick aside because of the 13 or the $1,600 savings but man like you said I think this fight takes place on the feet I think it’s Pitter P pitter patter
Probably most of the fight if it goes a decision I don’t think any of them make the optimal like Chad wins he still could score 75 which you take at this price I guess as a dog which is why I’m picking him because 75 could be enough where it’s definitely not enough for
Goria but still like I mean man he’s not very good he’s 36 he’s with a lot of injuries he hasn’t fought very often doesn’t have I mean he has some pop in his hands but I think goria probably the the heavy hitter the more heavy hitter
Yeah at the end of the day long withed answer of saying I don’t love this fight much some of these dogs like Mitch Ramirez like OSP H Natan Levy are easy easy fades for me so I’m keeping and heler in the pool again he’s my preferred play but he falls down the
List like probably my fifth favorite dog or something on the card I hope it’s unlike last week and get a boring decision a third round knockout from gregoria something like that and it’s not on the winner but yeah both them will be in my pool I don’t want too much
Ownership gregoria and chalk your lineups and a heler as just a dog I’ll be mixing in it’s how I see it say someone’s picking winners shark that’s the goal man that is the goal what’s going on Nicholas waiting for this show we’re picking optimal scores not necessarily winners hey our man Nicholas
Knows we’re trying to pick some winners but yes like Nicholas says it’s more game theory it’s more picking the fights at least that’s how I play MMA picking fights I think will be optimal and jamming those more so more than actually picking the winner Nicholas Ben
Listening to me man I love that stuff so we’ll keep it rolling though first fight of the night hope it’s pretty boring expect it to stay on the feet myself next fight on the card Cory McKenna Jacqueline amarim minus 175 is McKenna plus 155 or plus 150 is amarim on the
Way back this fight’s plus 130 to finish amarim plus two 200 inside the distance Cory McKenna plus 4555 all right this is an interesting one big Marley this line opened plus one or minus 140 amarim plus 120 McKenna McKenna stayed a dog for what two weeks
A little over a week and then money this past couple of days has just poured in on her it was like minus 125 on Monday now it’s minus 175 for Cory McKenna her ins of the distance prop plus 550 down to plus 455 on Marines inside the distance prop was all
The way down to plus60 plus 170 even yesterday now that’s up to plus 200 money’s consistently been coming in on Corey McKenna but the dog and amarim is has the way better inside the distance prop which makes sense with their grappling credentials fast starter Etc 8200 8,000
Closest line on the card my I switched my pick on this at least my preferred play my preferred play I thought earlier in the week was going to be amarine but I’m buying into this line movement and I think Cory McKenna I’m going to throw to
You on this note I mean do you think she get does what she usually does and gets takedowns amarim was fine off to her back obviously she’ll be fine getting taken down I think you think McKenna’s fine playing in guard and trying to stay safe for 10 minutes and get three
Takedowns and win a fight that way because if so I think she can be optimal at 8200 I just don’t expect to finish at the end of the day whereas Amar definitely has finished upside so I’ll have some of her but yeah what do you see this fight
Going yeah I’m almost the opposite way where I started the week liking McKenna a little bit because I do think she could just stay in top control grind out 10 minutes get three plus takedowns in this fight and do solid uh but I also think she is the better striker of the
Two and if if they’re going to spend time on the feet then I don’t like either side of this fight yeah no so that’s the worry is that McKenna just stuffs takedowns doesn’t really care to wrestle too much herself I just don’t trust her I guess but if I knew her game
Plan was to go in there and get takedowns then I’m not convinced I’m not convinced she’s that much even of a better Striker which is like the the reason I think she might get there like I feel like Amar has way more pop on the shots like mckenneth she throws pillows
Like the shortest arms just like I mean yeah more Technical and stuff but yeah Amar at least throws something like means something when she throws but I do agree she probably she’s definitely more technical she can do it for 15 minutes who knows about omry keep going though
But yeah but uh both both sides can wrestle but with amarim I think she is a little bit more dangerous especially early in the fight so if she’s the one Landing takedowns I think she’s live for a first round finish yeah and her ownership should be shrinking now
Because when I did this fight it was minus 125 McKenna and now she’s like minus 175 so that’s 8% more likely to win than she was on Monday and just don’t really see where that’s coming from I I don’t know that it’s anything that’s happened I don’t think amarim is
Injured or anything I think it’s just somebody placed a big bet they probably sell bets and their their followers jumped on it as well so it’s like one person changing this line is my opinion and I I’m kind of cool just going on the other side of it at this point amarim is
Now my preferred play in gpps I think mcken is a good cash game play you got to just take the value and cash but in gpps with this ownership shrinking am still has the same ceiling she had on Monday so I’ll probably get leverage on the underdog now and since McKenna’s
Ownership will be raising I was planning on being maybe 25% or so but now she might be over that so I might lessen my ownership on McKenna and be 20% or even less and just hoping that amarim wins this fight but ultimately I did pick McKenna to win a pretty close fight
Because I think she’s her her cardio is a little bit more trustworthy I think maybe she’s the better better offensive wrestler especially in the second and the third round I think she is the more technical Striker and could just hang out you know at range and and pick her
Way to a striking decision which would really suck for DraftKings we need this fight to take place on the ground but it is right there in the mid-range both sides make sense it’s just that the whole new line is changing it for me and I’m kind of switching my preferred play
To the underdog now it’s funny that we we both switched our our we were on the different side and we both switched and came together well we didn’t come together we’re still opposite but we started opposite we both switched midweek as well with this line movement it’s definitely confusing what I will
Say on this fight is it’s surrounded by tabura taiu iasa the main event five rounds by far the most likely to finish so you know that that fight’s gonna be way higher own then you get Isaac dgeren who will get to in a little bit I guess
In a little while $88,500 who’s clearly going to be pretty highly owned there so if you leave 300 on the table I’m not saying you build a Dogan lineup go Dogan to McKenna Etc but if you have McKenna and you do leave 300 plus and dgan not
In that lineup like you know you’re it’s you’re gonna have low dupes like it you there’s just no other way that McKenna’s a way worse play than Del Garen on paper but moneyline odds are pretty similar both can wrestle just wanted uh to point that out but that’s the ownership of
This fight has to at least stay somewhat in check I’m one wondering what McKenna gets up to with this line movement but still like plus 45 plus 455 inside the distance still surrounded by main event dalgan I don’t think it can get too crazy um that Amar I’ve seen sharp with
The line move McKenna isn’t great anywhere honestly yeah I mean she definitely is not great anywhere I do agree like amarim has way more first round finishing upside though which is why I’m gonna play some and she will be low owned but at the end of the day I
Still don’t love this fight I like it more than ner um that last fight we just talked about but there’s still plenty more better fights on this card in my opinion we got 13 of them to talk about so I also don’t love it because I could
See amarim winning the first round and then McKenna being like all right I have to just beat her to the punch and start wrestling myself and then she wins the second and the third round and that’s just not enough at that point so maybe that happens and McKenna scores 82
Points in the decision and that I would guess that doesn’t get there yeah no I’m with you yeah just like in the Sam Hughes fight we seen amarim slow down a fast starter you can take the back will’ll control most of the fight there so that’s definitely in the cards as
Well yeah again another fight I’ll be using kind of in lineups that are a little chalkier because the main events right around it dgar and Etc amarim will be lower own so especially if you need a low owned fighter amarim has upside plus 150 not bad at all enough on that fight
Though let’s keep it rolling Joshua Ki Danny Silva minus 180 is kabau plus 155 is Silva this fight is plus 130 to finish Kabal plus 240 inside the distance Danny Silva plus 360 I mean man I’ll say as far as kaball I look at him like what I call him J
Earlier I’m really curious what his actually I’m gonna call him jro again 8,900 8,800 is kolab about I look at them so similar I bet this fight to mainly play out on the feet kolab is low volume both of them right in that same price range like I’m I have both of them
Tagged as underweight in the slay plan I’ll say that right now their ownership will be pretty low own too so I’m going to cap their ownership and then I’ll use them in chalkier lineups at least is my plan is how I’m gonna attack them way more interest in the Danny Silva side I
Like Danny Silva more than Chad and heler if I had to pick for the simple fact of dude thre he landed over 200 significant strikes 2004 significant strikes and threw 3177 strikes in the contender series fight I mean he literally plots forward he’s fine eating one to give one and he’ll just keep
Going volume volume volume cardio’s there for days hey what’s going on John we appreciate that right on Q think Sila gets optimal if he wins I’ll throw it to you Marley but my answer is yes if you tell me he’s winning I’m I’m 100% in 20
Entry and below in 150 I don’t know if I’m quite a 100% but I mean man I’m at least over a hundred so yeah with his volume I do think if he wins He he’ll probably be optimal at this price but I we really do appreciate that John that
$10 hope you’re doing well very nice of you yeah yeah thank you John um yeah I do think Silva has a good chance of being optimal if he wins just because of that pace alone and he also has knockout power too so he has like 100 Point
Upside even I mean he has 100 Point upside just with that volume alone I don’t see this being anywhere near that Dana White’s Contender series fight that same Pace mostly because of the coolab about side um Silva landed 204 sign strikes in that one fight kulaba has had
Six UFC fights 75 minutes worth of cage time and he has not landed 204 combined significant strikes so my plan is to just completely X out kulaba here he is plus 240 inside the distance um Silva’s hitable and I and kulaba could maybe even choke him out if he goes to the
Ground but he doesn’t wrestle or he’s not really going to wrestle much anyways and he’s not a big time power puncher so I don’t want to rely on that and if it gets out of the first round maybe a knockout from him won’t even be enough
At 8,800 so kulal complete fade for me and then Silva at 7,400 I will be overweight to him I’m picking him to win just because of that volume alone I think that the line should be a little bit closer um and if he can throw 204 significant strikes then I feel good
About um his score even in a decision here but he’s got knockout power could score 100 points and break the Slate so uh Silva’s The Leverage play for me but I think it really comes down to how many underdogs win on this card I think there’s other underdogs with um you know
Higher ceilings but I only picked a few to win so Silva’s definitely one of my favorites do you prefer Macy are you are you G have any Macy I guess is a question chess because I was debating cool like I don’t like cool ball M much Macy I guess right now
I think you even talk me into it I think I’m going to go Macy underway kulab Bal fade in the Slate plan but what are your thoughts Macy like again another low owned pivot in that 9k range similar to kol Etc but more Chas I’m much more interested
In her I don’t think she uh she’ll get much ownership either and I think she has a much more likely ceiling if she wins so uh coolout is my favorite fade on the card to be honest yeah I like it and again that’s why I don’t publish
Anything up yet I was debating those two and I was debating jro in there as well but you made my life very easy I do I won’t be having cool B 20 and below I like Silva side Macy will get to in a little bit but I do think I mean she’s
Going to be low owned again similar thoughts of in chalky lineups to get different I think she’s fine and she does have upside in that match up but let’s get to the next fight on the card and again we appreciate that John what’s going on Jake hope you’re doing well I
Thought he said happy birthday someone’s birthday in here he said how about you though next fight on the card Jael Foo taking on oday Osborne filo minus 153 three OD Osborne plus 133 this fight one of the most likely to finish on the card at minus
260 fho minus 110 ode Osborne plus 270 so we have seen line movement in this one um when the odds came out on Monday or it was Sunday one of the two it was around minus 180 so this fight opened minus 155 F got down to minus 180 oday
Got some buyback and it’s now sitting at or now the line’s us 153 133 so just looking at pricing I OD is the side in terms of value on the money line you look at inside the distance prop OD is very good at plus 270 for 7500 now what
I will say about felo though is I mean man 8700 for minus 153 is a little bit of a overspend if you look at it like that but as you guys know we don’t care about moneyline value as much Etc and gpps you need a big boy score F’s got a
Big boy upside in one and I think his ownership is going to be lower than it should I’m looking at what we have right now I’ll say that out loud 19% I’m gonna be overweight on filo at 19% the grappling Advantage he wants to get to
The fights of the mat showed a lot of toughness in his last fight OD advantage on the feet Foo on the mats and again od’s gonna I like both sides of this fight but I do like the line movement going against Foo and over spending for
Upside I’m going to pick him too with the grappling advantage to get a sub so yeah great fight to Target by far the best that we’ve talked about thus far on the card in my opinion yeah I’m I’m uh kind of the opposite as that McKenna fight on this
One where I like the favorite more now because this line is shrinking I think Phil Ho’s ownership comes down I would have had him mid 20s if uh he was still minus 180 here um but I I moved him down sub20 because of that and now on the
Other side Osborne his ownership should be climbing whereas I liked him a little bit before if he was going to go overlooked because I do think Osborne’s the better Striker here Osborne might be the better wrestler too so if he can just use this fight uh uses wrestling to
Keep this fight on the feet I think Osborne wins and he could knock this guy out so on Monday I would have had a lot more um Osborne but now I mean he might be 25 plus percent owned and I don’t know that I want to get leverage to that
So I’m thinking let me just get leverage to the field ho side I think he if he’s going to win this fight it’s going to come through the ground he’s not a great wrestler but he’s a really good Grappler and I think he will you know attempt to
Chain wrestle until he can get the fight to the ground and eventually I see him doing that and probably submitting Osborne so fiho is my preferred play he’s my pick to win um and I’m gonna be more overweight to him now than I would have been on Monday and I’ll probably be
Around field on Osborne if not underweight now because they the field just might have passed me by with the this new line but good fight to Target overall um get exposure to both sides but for me it’s cash games Osborne gpps filo yeah no I I like this fight I mean
I was with you I even beginning of the week when I thought filo would be like 25 30% I still was going to get some um so I really like this line movement coming down expecting ownership to come down I’ll still play OD I’ll be the
Donkey even if he’s 25% I’ll have some of them because that’s when I’ll be using some of those lower own pieces uh in lineups like that or leaving money Etc but OD has 100 plus Point upside like first round knock out upside feel got dropped in his last fight against a
Striker showed toughness and when he gets it to the mat I mean he’s so most people watching probably recognize some of these names but fuo is the one that fought MV there’s a million fighters on the roster you probably can tell when I butcher some of these names there too
Many to know all of them and they’re all over the world but Foo fought MV what was it like a year ago about I think and he had him in that knee bar in the third round and how mive didn’t tap who knows but man like if he wins that fight on
Paper I feel like this line would naturally just somehow be like minus 200 or something but give me Foo to get it to the mat eventually uh but I’ll definitely be playing some Osborne too preferred play Foo especially at the ownership the line movement going
Against him I will be having a lot of this fight though for sure oh morab morab Al is going to be uh very fun Jake no doubt about that let’s keep it rolling next fight 13 to talk about again appreciate everyone hanging out with us like button subscribe button
Helps us out a ton and if you want all of our MMA content projections ownership slate plans fight rankings to go along with NBA NHL PGA NASCAR MLB be will be here before you know it no better price no better content in the industry chiping nation.com and you can use that
Code Masters 15 to get 15% off off those packages let’s keep it rolling big Marley next fight on the card back to the women’s division josiana Nunes taking on Chelsea Chandler minus 141 is Nunes plus 121 is Chandler excuse me this fight’s minus 130 to finish Nunes
Plus 165 Chandler plus 300 looking at hold on let me refresh the weigh-ins all right Chelsea Chandler still is not weighed in that was one that I had circled for sure because I mean there’s no such thing really as a 145 division anymore she fought nor Norma Dumont at
145 many of y’all probably remember that fight because if you ever seen the movie oh my gosh I what is uh what what is the one they have that black guy that’s strapped in the chair down below and like they’re messing with them doing all the that like someone in chat’s got to
Know it’s so so popular of a movie too and I’m about to use an analogy and anyway it’s when the dude’s like he’s trying to take off and just like screaming running as fast as he can booking it that’s what Chelsea Chandler was doing against Dumont in the first
Round last time when she was cracked she turned right around and was running for the fence like she was gonna run through it still one of the funniest things I’ve ever seen and I need someone in chat to get me that movie uh my description probably wasn’t very good but it’s a
Creepy family that like auctions off Slavs pretty much I mean so popular someone’s going to drop it in here back to MMA though I’m on the dog in this one big marle get out yes thank you get out is right that is exactly thank you Jordan thank you g Kyer that’s what
Chelsea Chandler was doing running trying to get out of the Octagon last fight Daniel’s in here all the people in here now back to this fight though give me the dog in this one if I’m picking prefer playing DraftKings my pick to win this fight I mean you look at these two
Again assuming Chelsea Chan makes weight and this fight’s on she’s what only three people Silva kibow and actually Four Mike Davis kibow Silva and Chandler are left to weigh in so a little nervous right here with Chelsea Chandler but assuming she’s good she’s gonna look like three weight classes above Nunes
Nunes as small as it gets Chandler’s big gonna have to cut down to this weight I think all she needs is a takedown to let end up on top and just be fine for a whole round do damage Etc Nunes has some pop in her hands but man I mean she is
So short she just Loops those those left hands just Loop some can she check can she catch Chandler sure and I’ll some at 8,400 give me Chandler though to win this fights I like her as a play I think there’s wrestling upside and you can build lineups plug in Nunes take out
Nunes go Chandler leave 600 I’m totally good with that um tell Marley yeah I’m not gonna put that one up but yeah what’s going on Marley that’s my Call of Duty buddy down there yeah something what’s yeah I agree man I’m on the underdog in the one I think the wrong
Fighter is favored I think this is a lot of recency bias really with Chandler running in that last fight I mean that was probably the last time I like literally laughed out loud in a fight was when she was running away but I mean that’s what people remember about her
And then she lost the fight and then you got this nunz girl who is knocking girls out which it doesn’t happen much so that’s why Nunes is favorite here I don’t think she is a better fighter I think in a striking match a 15minute striking match she’s more likely to
Knock out Chandler but I don’t rely on Knockouts in in WMA to be honest with you and this girl’s 5 foot two I mean she’s just she’s so short feel like Chandler could just hold her head out there you know and then it’s crazy she’s knocking people out like it’s like when
You watch on TV it’s like what is going on but she obviously has some pop yeah I mean she’s definitely got power but in a 15-minute striking match give me Chandler to be honest with you I think she’s the better Striker overall uh both of them are hitable uh but I mean that
Really only matters a lot on the Chandler side if she gets knocked out and that’s what puts Nunes on the optimal lineup a 15minute fight with Nunes winning a decision I don’t think she is on the optimal lineup even if even if she wins all three rounds I
Still think she’s probably not going to make the optimal lineup but now Chandler is the one with wrestling upside she lost her last fight because she got out wrestled but she doesn’t have that worry in this fight anymore Chandler’s going to be the better wrestler in this one
And when she goes for takedowns nunz isn’t gonna have anything to offer off her back I think Chandler could put up a 100 plus points in this one if she does go out there and wrestle so give me the underdog I will be overweight for sure to Chandler and I’ll be underweight to
Nunez I’m not going to completely fade her because since I’m gonna be so high on Chandler I need a little bit of hedge in case that knockout happens I don’t want to be completely pissed off but yeah I think the wrong girls favorite here give me Chandler uh to win and
Maybe clearly very clearly yeah I love to hear that I’m already on camro watching on playback get out thank thanks my man um and I definitely Bush your name so camar bro one Le that’s what I’m gonna call you but yeah I love it I mean I was on
Chandler you you’re on Chandler that makes me feel really good what I will say though because I’m not fading Nunes by any means either she’s got to be somewhat her ownership’s got to be ca because dogan’s gonna be one or 100 more gonna be a lot higher on to 8,500 then
You get 8,300 7900 with Ty and Ty burra so nunas has to be Capp for sure and this money line isn’t great for her plus 165 inside the distance is still fine so while like am picking Chandler preferred Chandler all of that like uh someone mentioned Nicholas mentioned earlier in
Chat mainly I pick fights and ownership and Etc is how I play MMA DFS even though I think she loses if she wins she has upside ownership will be Capp she will be in my pool for that reason but yeah Chandler for both of us I love it
Um let’s keep it rolling plenty still the talk about Mike Davis Natan Levy again Mike Davis hasn’t weighed in yet minus 500 is Mike Davis plus 375 on the way back is Natan Levy this fight is plus four five plus 145 to finish with all the Finish equity on the Davis side
At plus 145 Natan Levy plus 1100 uh Mike Davis the third highest price fighter on the card the second biggest favorites he open minus 300 and man is he taking money the past week I mean I’m looking at March 7th he was minus 241 March 9th 245 fast forward a
Couple days not even a week minus 500 I agree with the line movement I think Mike Davis is better wherever this fight goes I love watching Mike Davis fights that Mason Jones fight was a m he’s always in fun fights I guess the Slava
Claus was fun for me because I had a lot of them but he took the easiest path to Victory like why strike with Slava Claus take him down I think Mike Davis can win this fight wherever he wants lands over five Tak down or lands over five significant strikes per minute lands
Over three takedowns per 15 he’s a DFS monster you don’t even need a finish for him but yeah um I do think he’ll be the second most popular in the upper tier I feel confident about that but I still think he’s probably like 10% less than
Kennedy and the 200 so if you play a lineup you have Kennedy take him out play Mike Davis you leave 200 I think depending on what your other five spots are you can have very cut out a lot of dupes and stuff just doing that I think
Even if Mike Davis is 40% Kennedy’s 50 the 200 being able to upgrade Etc I think will do enough so yeah I like Mike Davis plenty he’s my second favorite in the upper tier um I guess in the 9k range behind Kennedy but yeah like him or Moes I
Guess a throw it to you in this card or in this fight than anything else you got to say yeah uh speaking of Moes we skipped that fight so we have to go back that one yeah 100% did yeah my bad yeah um man we have 40% I’ll just say it out
Loud we have 40% for D 41 and 49 for Kennedy so he’s going to be owned but again the point of what I said I think Kennedy will still be 10% higher he’s going to be the second highest up top and yeah I think a lot of that is
Because of the line moving from minus 300 to minus 500 so it’s another one where I liked them a little bit more earlier in the week but now the field is caught up and I don’t know how much leverage I want to get and at this point
I’m fine just getting different in the 9k range like my favorite Davis lineup I I could take him out and move down a little bit lower and pick a handful of people out so I’m just kind of thinking a ways I’m G to get different on this
Card I’m more focused on The Underdogs that I like and then I can get a little bit crazy with the expensive favorites but I do like Davis in this fight I think he’s got a big striking Edge he’s a good wrestler too I don’t think we’re gonna see anywhere near a nine takedown
Performance from him in this matchup but I do like him to get a knockout the issue is that Vegas likes him to win a decision that’s his most likely prop anyways and if he does win a decision and he’s not going from any takedowns I
I don’t think he’s going to be on the optimal lineup and if he’s going to be 40% owned that makes me want to get away from him but if I’m right and he does get a knock out he might even have a takedown or two leading up to it could
Be really high volume like he has 120 point ceiling so this one I’m not sure what to do with I’ll probably just end up being around field weight I’ll just let the uh the solver do its thing and if it gives me an extra 20% that’s fine if it gives me 10% under
The field that’s fine as well and then on the levy side if Levy wins this fight I feel good about him making the op or not making the optimal lineup but scoring more than 10x because it’s gonna have to come through the ground he’s gonna have to win two plus rounds of
Takedowns or he’s gonna have to submit Davis either way I think his scores well so good fight to Target both sides of I prefer Davis but at this point maybe lever Levy is my preferred Leverage play because he won’t get much ownership so maybe I can get 15% of him and still be
Over the field yeah you I think you definitely would be overweight with 15% Levy you’d also have 15% dead lineups but hey that’s uh someone’s got to pay the rake no I’m playing but yeah I mean Davis I don’t really have much more to
Add I think he knocks him out too I said knockout he can mix in takedowns if I think if he wants to the leg kicks I think will be money the jab I mean when Mike Davis fights he is so fun to watch he is the boxing’s crisp he can mix in
Takedowns the cardio is fine I just think he’s better than Levy everywhere and I think eventually Levy is gonna he’s not gonna be able to take the damage and he’ll get knocked out so yeah Mike Davis in this one but I’m with you like I like Mike Davis a lot but if I
Loved everything all my exposures and I got 20% Mike Davis I’d be fine with it if I loved everything else like that’s kind of how I go with a lot of that stuff in the 9ks um so yeah I’ll let that determine but I do like Mike Davis
Will have no n Lev let’s get to the other third biggest favorite on the card I missed the fight Thiago Moises Mitch Ramirez Mitch Ramirez stepping in on short notice for Brad Rell that would have been a fun fight and mois was minus 200 against Brad Riddell which uh
Surprised me a little bit now minus 370 uh this fight’s minus 200 to finish Moy is minus 140 inside the distance Ramirez plus 525 like I’d much prefer if I had to pick one of the I’m not playing Ramirez in 20 teams or less if I got to any of
These big dogs though it would clearly be Mitch Ramirez for me um but man like feels like on the feet moisis is probably better the calf kicks will be there he just fought way better competition than on the mat like the grappling isn’t even close thiago’s a
Very good Grappler I don’t know I guess wrestling Mitch Ramirez maybe has a little bit I still don’t think the end of the day short notice going against a fringe 15 guy who’s fought F 20 minutes with Islam has fought very good competition I can’t pick him but I don’t
Know I guess maybe I could add in my pool cap him at like 5% and be with the field if you uh if you talk me into him yeah I’m not going to do that I think I’m exing Ramirez out I mean in the line really doesn’t make sense compared to
The riddle fight like I don’t know how he’s just 10% more likely to beat Ramirez than he was Rell that’s more on the Rell side like I would have been betting Rell probably but now this Ramirez guy like I not sold that he beats mois in a 15minute striking match
So he seems more knockout or bust and Moyes just got his ass kicked in his last fight real bad and I think that’s why people just aren’t too high on him here but this seems like last week he seems like gamrot from last week where you’re right in between two people who
Are gonna be higher owned um and that K I didn’t have gamr so um this week I do want to get a little bit of Moises and I think he makes a lot of sense as a pivot away from Kennedy and Mike Davis priced right in the middle of those guys those
Guys will be more owned and Moyes could go out there and just completely dominate this fight on the in the first round he could land three takedowns and then get a submission um with strikes along the way too so I could see Moy scoring 115 points here and just
Outscoring those guys making the optimal lineup so I think I’ll probably end up overweight on the moist side but I I just didn’t like what I saw on Ramirez I don’t think he belongs in the UFC so I’m just going to X him out of my player
Pool make this a little bit easier for me I’ll be overweight on The Underdogs that I like to win and you can find all those guys over at shipping.com I give my uh predictions or the method of victory for every single fight so the guys that I’m picking to win are the
Ones that I’ll be leveraged on yeah Marley gives his the pick what round and how he thinks submission decision finish it’s almost like you looked up my writing though because I wrote the same thing Thiago Moises is the gameat play of last week he has to be sandwiched
Kennedy Mike Davis right in between the worst money line out odds out of them I just he has to be so I mean man it hurts here in gam one less takedown it’s all I needed one less freaking takedown a couple milliseconds earlier oh can’t believe it still sings a little bit 135k
Later but yeah I mean I was so tilted for you after that card yeah I was say hey that’s that’s life man that’s how it goes always on the next as Tambo says one of my favorites nobody cares work harder end of the day nobody really does
Care at the end of the day they care if they win all that money except a couple of the homies like you like my man Rio some of you guys hit me up there but nobody cares work harder we’ll get right back to it Moes though yeah I got
Nothing more to add right in between gamat or right the same play as gamat last week kened Mike Davis Moes I’ll be us using him in chalkier lineups or in lower own lineups not like he’s gonna be a big difference maker but if you have money on the table and you play Moises
And you don’t play Davis or Kennedy you can definitely build some pretty solid lineups there minus 140 inside the distance good Moes in round one is plus 250 which is solid um the last thing I will mention though two days ago Wednesday Moes got down to minus 450
Then someone put a big bet or something on Ramirez now all the way to minus 370 and it looks like one bet was covered 80 cents so I don’t know what I mean maybe his parents Mitch rire parents or something but that is very interesting
To knowe yeah I don’t think it would be like too sharp of money but it I’m also I also don’t understand why Moyes isn’t a bigger favorite so I don’t know maybe there’s something I don’t know about this Ramirez guy I didn’t really watch a whole lot of fights about uh
From him but what I did see I just wasn’t impressed enough for me to have to think he has a realistic chance of beating Moises if you told me this is a 15-minute striking match that’s really where he would have his best chance but I would still take Moises in that yeah
Me too yeah me too we we’ll we’ll keep it moving though Moises or bust in this one for me I will say personally though if I had to play one of these dogs down below I would play like between Levy uh OSP and and Ramirez I would go Ramirez
It sounds like you’d go Levy right yeah yeah cool let’s keep it going nice fight on the card still what six to talk about Gerald mirar Brian barbarena minus 238 and I will say uh Mike Davis did make weight so did kly B so right now just waiting on Chelsea Chandler sketch don’t
Like seeing that and Danny Silva also don’t love seeing that but yeah keep it going uh mirar Brian barbarena minus 238 mirar plus 203 is barbarena this fight’s minus 175 to finish I will say it opened minus 200 so some money has came in on the over mirar minus 125
Inside the distance barbarena plus 525 I mean two UFC vets I would say two old dudes but like barbarena is 32 or is it gm3 one of those two let I wrote it up I was so surprised to see it was like 34 and 32 or something which is
Absolutely shocking 36 okay 36 is gm3 34 is barbarena man I thought both of them were a little older especially barbarena I will say though when you’re talking UFC career-wise I mean Barbara’s got a foot out the door and that might even be being nice how he’s fighting at 185 that
Is not it gm3 though he’s still cooking and I think he could still cook for a couple years like his grappling just poises such a a mind F I’m not going to swear but it just confuses like they don’t want to go to the ground they
Cannot end up on the ground against gm3 and I think a striking is a little underrated actually because people do respect the grappling so much so I mean I get the line like seeing gm3 at minus 240 is crazy but man barbarena looking at his frame he should
Fight at 155 he’s fighting at 185 he throws good volume if he wins I think he does score pretty well gm3 still a primary Grappler but I’m on the gm3 side I guess in DFS though like how do you see this fight how do you like it compared to others in the
Range yeah I like the gm3 side more I’ll probably be overweight to him depending I I don’t know I guess depends on where the field is at on him because I could see him getting a first round submission scoring 97 points and maybe that just isn’t
Enough but if you told me he’s going to score 97 points I still probably won a good amount and I think that it’s fairly likely because his his real Edge is going to be on the ground in this fight barbarina has no takedown defense um he
Was submitted in two of his last three losses mirart has like 27 career submissions um so I think at some point he’s gonna submit barbarina that’s how I see this fight going down and he could rack up like six plus takedowns in the process if barbarina keeps getting up
Before he gets submitted so I feel like mirar has a big ceiling but I also think he could I mean he’s not a great wrestler and if the Striking is going if it’s close maybe he spends too much time striking and that’s going to take away
From any ceiling that he’s going to have at 9100 points so if we spend the first round striking and then he decides he wants to go to the wrestling it’s probably too late at that point he’s probably off the optimal lineup so I feel like I got to cap his ownership
Somewhere but at the same time if he’s going to be close to half his own as a Kennedy or a Davis then I like him quite a bit more and then barbarini he’s in play as like a alive Underdog who could win a striking match here he could knock
Out mirart that’s what would break the Slate but I I like other underdogs more so it’s it’s a fight where I I probably just match the field or something like that on both sides but I like mirart to get a submission I picked second round though so second round submission he’s
Got to wrestle in the first round in order for that to pay off yeah I don’t really have too much more to add like if I had 40% Mir shart and loved everything again I’d be fine with that if I had 20% Mir shart and I loved
Everything I’d be fine with that as well and I for all the points you just made like he has definitely has the advantage on the mat the ceiling I’m not GNA say has 131 Point ceiling I guess he does I guess almost anyone does an MMA um I
Don’t see like that 10 takedowns like gamrat and all that Etc but man like you said couple takedowns on the table first round submission on the table what if he gets a first round submission with like a minute left I mean that could easily be 108 with some strikes something like
That I think 108’s good enough on this card then looking at ownership kind of like you mentioned I’m not gonna say it out loud again I said it’d be premium members it’s important but he’s definitely goingon to be lower owned than Mike Davis he’s going to be lower owned than
Kennedy now he will be higher own then Chason goria kibow Etc but just in that upper 9k range you at least know he’s not going to be he’s going to be at least the third or fourth highest I think him and Thiago Moyes will be pretty close so if you go Kennedy
Lineups and you save the 300 and gm3 outscores them you know you will have eliminate a lot of dupes and stuff like that so yeah I’ll be using gm3 in a way like that if barbarena wins I think he’s probably on the optimal like even though
He’s at 185 the dke can still strike he still throws good volume gm3 is not like a great Striker by means I mean he’s been he’s been shut off uh his lights have been shut off a couple times on the Chaya fight um for sure I mean one hit
And just dead barbarena with the volume if gm3 can’t get takedowns I think he’s live to put it on him keep it on the feet and he’s going to be low own as a dog too so definitely mixing in some barbarena I think gm3 though is the
Rightful favorites does get the job done and he’ll be lower on than Kennedy and Mike Davis so I’ll definitely have some up top to get different but again I don’t love like if I had to pick in a vacuum how would you rank Kennedy Moises Mike Davis gm3 pretending prices don’t
Matter pretend ownership does though man uh probably Kennedy first if owner I mean yeah if ownership doesn’t matter I would probably just go in line with the odds Kennedy Davis Moises Mir sharp yeah but definitely I’m completely fine flipping that whole thing you yeah fair enough I still got Kennedy one Davis
2 I don’t know mois and gm3 are pretty tough I maybe like I like mois more and the upside more but the $200 maybe gm3 it’s definitely Kennedy Mike Davis for me up top though is how I see it but yeah hey UFC two UFC vets making the
Walk wouldn’t be surprised to see if this was the last Brian barbarena fight in the UFC though next fight on the card Macy Chase panny can said Jon minus 220 panny plus 185 it’s fight the most likely to Go the Distance on the card at plus 250 all the
Finish equity on the Jason side plus 250 inside the distance panny plus 12200 a fight a rematch from years and years and years ago Json gets a second round submission I mean my quick breakdown this I head is a full fade you change my coie bow I Chang from Fade to
Underweight weight I changed or from underweight to fade COI bow I changed Jason from Fade to underweight and I’ll keep her in the pool and I’m happy you did that because even when I was typing it up and stuff like Jason has upside and we have seen it multiple times more
So earlier in her career than as of late but she’s been wrestling more as of late I think she can take pan panny down you know even if she’s against the fence controlling her that counts as well I mean panning just isn’t good at the end
Of the day I don’t really know what else to say she has no pop take defense isn’t good like Json has plenty of outs here for a big score at pretty low ownership in this 9k range so yeah I’m glad you change it I’ll have no Ki B all sumon my
Ki B ownership to Chon it’s not that I love her much but in chalky lineups is when I’ll be playing Chon um in lineups I’m already different or have some leverage or left a lot of salary of course I like Mike Davis Kennedy those guys more in a vacuum personally but how
Do you see this fight yeah I I don’t love it but I could make a case for either side uh these two fought before like uh in the tough finale to get into the UFC basically Chason choked out Kad in the second round she had like five minutes of
Control time in that fight but with zero takedowns in the first round it was ke kenad went for a Tak down chasing stuffed it took her back that’s how she got the control time there and then in the second round chaseing dropped her um
So I mean how much you how much do you value at that that fight that many years ago I mean both these girls have had so many fights since then so different parts of their career kind of like a good amount I feel like they’re not that
Much B I feel like they’ve both improved where there’s not like a big Edge on either side um from what they’ve recently done but I give Jason the grappling Edge and if kad’s going to win it would be a striking match I’m not sure she’s the better Striker but that’s
Where she would need to win but when Kad win she scores 72 to 81 points I would expect that here uh really even low I would expect her to be lower than 72 rather than over 81 um but on the Jason side if she had you know a couple takedowns like she
Just wasn’t successful with her takedowns and that’s what makes me not like her at 9k in this fight because I don’t trust her to go out there and be able to land the three to six takedowns like she has in her last two fights if she can do that at low ownership
Though then then we’re talking I mean she scored 102 in their last fight she scored over 104 other UFC wins as well so she does have a ceiling but the way I see this fight playing out is that we probably get 10 minutes of striking time and maybe Macy
Gets two takedowns I don’t think that no actually kianzad was taken down three times in her last fight that’s the most she’s ever been taken down in a UFC fight so I feel like three takedowns is is probably the ceiling for Macy here and if she’s going to win a decision
Like V like Vegas expects then I don’t think she scores enough points so on paper it looks like Macy’s going to go out there score 80 points and and win the fight but not be on the optimal lineup but if she’s going to be so much less owned than all these other
People then I’m interested that it’s the ownership that’s talking me into Macy just the ownership alone but she could go out there and score 102 points again I wouldn’t be too shocked it’s just that I don’t expect it yeah you couldn’t say it anymore again I had this fade or this
Fight as a fade initially panties’s never scored more than 81 like I think we get some dogs on this card at least one and like if the dogs I want to play I at least want them to have some bit of upside feels like panty’s got nothing so
I got no interest there but like you said yeah I mean you go through the game logs of Macy she’s been wrestling more you look at her ownership especially in a card that the 9k range is very concentrated especially between two guys Mike Davis and Kennedy like and chy
Lineups if I’m playing OD Osborne if I’m playing Dogan if I’m playing the main event stuff like that you eventually need to get a lower own option leave money Etc that’s how I’ll be using Macy do I love it no in a hand build it’s
Pretty tough to click I get it um but yeah that’s how you win all the cheese instead of holding hands with everyone plays like that can win you all the cheese I do think Macy has the upside there what’s going on low wolf glad to
Have you man of course you don’t got to be sorry for being late wolf of ball streets saying hi to his cousin there you go couple fights left on the card big Marley again still appreciate everyone hanging out with us almost approaching an hour talking some
UFC uh Apex don’t love the Apex fights I will admit that but four fights left big Marley Isaac dogar and Christian Rodriguez minus 187 is dgar and plus 162 is C Rod minus 130 for this fight to Finish dgan plus 150 inside the distance Cod plus 350 how about Rodriguez for the
Upside Travis DTE says I hope not because I’m on the dgan side however I think Rodriguez makes a lot of sense as leverage because dogan’s gonna get ownership 8,500 has taken money throughout the week everyone’s gonna see six and 0 all first round finishes wrestling for days just dominated
Francis Marshall like everything is going for him zro on the other hand too though like R Rosas Jr stopped that hype train Cameron Simon St that hype train like he’s keeps getting the job done young kid he definitely can um can pull it off
Here I will say he is coming up a away class though to 145 which I don’t love made his de UFC debut at 145 on short notice against Jonathan Pierce made a good account himself there definitely impressed me went to 135 his normal weight class but it struggled on the
Scale so they’re moving up to 145 which I don’t love in this one but yeah I mean I’m I’m doarian I think he has all the upside in the world I think even if you leave like somehow you go for this might be a little extreme but a Kennedy lineup
To dalaran like they have very similar upside so I don’t think that’s crazy by any means it shows how strong of a play he has a 8,500 and then he’s gonna be popular so that’s just why interest in C Rod I think he loses I don’t love guys that going against primary wrestlers
Like he could spend minutes off his back and still win and not score enough so I will have some Fades of this fight but direct Leverage is clear as day on the SE Rod side plus 350 inside the distance isn’t bad and I mean at the end of the
Day you’re talking a 7700 fighter he’s got all the talent in the world so yeah good fight to Target I’m on the dalaran side though for sure yeah I mean it’s hard not to want to pick dolgan all I’ve seen from him is just going out there and dominate
Dominating people on the ground and finishing everybody in the first round um this is definitely his toughest fight to date though I I just sent you uh my little write up on this if you want to show it but this is one where it’s
Like I feel like I need to be heavy on DOL Garen because like he might be him you know what I’m saying he he could just be a title contender in the next year or two because of what we’ve seen is just all magnificent we haven’t seen
Any flaws from this kid yet but he hasn’t been past the first round and Rodriguez just coming off of two wins against really hyped up prospects this is the prospect ECT killer and Rodriguez is good everywhere so I feel like Rodriguez is going to have the Striking
Edge in this one and after round one like I’m not confident DOL garan’s the better wrestler uh so the way I put it is I just changed this to a five-star ranking which I’m G to be heavy on this fight it’ll be in the most of my lineups
But I put DOL Garen as the four star and Rodriguez as the two because like I probably go out there and I get dolgan in 50% of my lineup something like that because he’s only 8,500 he scored 122 in his debut fight I could definitely see him going out there
And scoring 122 here so I want a lot of him but after round one man I don’t know what this guy’s going to look like and Rodriguez could be better everywhere if dgeren slows down Rodriguez could really put a beating on him especially if he’s Landing takedowns himself against a
Gasted out dulgarian and Rodriguez could score 100 plus points even if he drops the first round so I’m just gonna load up on this fight I’ll probably have 50% dolg Garen but that’s gonna put me close to the field on him and Rodriguez I’m not sure where I put his ownership you
Guys could check it out over at shipping nation.com um but if he’s going to be let’s say 15% owned I I’m fine doubling up the field and going 30% on Rodriguez because not only is that going to get me double the field but it would also kill
Out close to 50% of the field who are on D garan so I might have this fight in 85 or more percent of my uh my lineups but from what I’ve seen it’s just so hard to pass up on DOL Garen right now so he’s going to be the pick
If I’m making one lineup on this whole slate I would rather have him in it because I don’t want to have two points from Rodriguez and in the end of it so yeah give me dogar and I hope he does keep from pressing because sky’s the
Limit for this kid yeah no I mean I yeah the thing the one concern people will talk about six and0 all six first round finishes how does he look if he gets outside who knows at the end of the day but what I do know is he trains F
Factory x in Colorado at elevation and the dude is wrestled his whole life so I mean those two things usually mean pretty solid cardio now of course you can have a cardio dump not pace yourself plent ways where it fails but at elevation Dude Looks Like A stud and
He’s wrestled his whole life like I think this guy has to have cardio especially if he just wants to wrestle like that’s I mean he he can wrestle for hours on end you’d think at the gym so yeah I’m not worried as much about the cardos maybe some I just love the Dogan
Side like the upside is huge C rod for leverage dogan’s the pick though I would not stack this fight with 13 fights and especially like they’ll if with all the Tak on the dgan side would could you stack this I mean that means CR Rod would just be off his back pretty much
The whole time so I wouldn’t like the upside as much there 85 7700 like at that point I’d rather just punt with Mitch Ramirez or something and Hope you get 40 in a loss rather than I think you would in a Los dolgan to be the underdog for a stack to work dolgan
Goes out there lands eight takedowns and loses the fight but if he loses the fight with eight takedowns he’s not GNA make it as the favorite I don’t think so yeah no that makes sense I I wouldn’t stack though three fights left this one very quick for me Kennedy ne
Ne why say it say it Marley say the last name Kennedy and check and and chuku and chuku that’s it 100% that’s it had to hear it Kennedy nuk Nuku taking on OSP I some might have butchered it minus 400 this fight to Finish hold on minus 400 for this fight
To Finish on BET online and Kennedy’s minus 475 so again always sometimes books do this where they have something that just absolutely makes no sense like this if you think Kennedy wins inside the distance just bet this fight to Finish at-400 over minus 475 for him as an individual
OSP plus 900 Kennedy I will say in round one as well plus 115 in this fight I’m glad you’re laughing G Kyer trying to try trying to make your day better with uh with with some of this stuff with some of these butchered names easy fight though big Mar we already talked enough
About Kennedy OSP sucks OSP right now in his career sucks should have retired years ago I mean when Felipe L lindsa start you in a minute that is not great at all so yeah I this Line’s right osp’s way over the hill probably his last fight in the UFC
Doesn’t throw any volume yeah of course he can clip Kennedy like that’s what he has to do he just he has to hit him with a shot he has power Kennedy has been rocked but yeah punchers chance for everyone there will be no punchers chance with OSP in my lineup though so
If you got the money the team makes sense play Kennedy just yeah be careful how you play him as all I got yeah I I uh I mean I agree I would actually rather waste 5% of my lineups on OSP than like M Ramirez uh but I’m
Probably going to end up fading OSP too uh but yeah I like Kennedy the only issue is $9,400 I’m fine with any of the guys priced below him but as I mentioned if price and ownership doesn’t matter then give me Kennedy because I think he gets a first round knockout here he’s minus
400 inside the distance all the other books are closer to minus 600 on the fight being my uh inside the distance definitely price shop yeah I always go against SP online I think it’s the one of the sharpest books out there for MMA um but definitely make sure and they get
Their lines up early that’s why I think so because they take the earliest action at most places definitely price shop though in MMA like all spores and uh any any uh finish from Kennedy whether second or third round could be enough for him he could still
Score over 100 points with a second or third round knockout but I think if it’s a first round knockout it’s gonna be hard to kick this guy off the optimal lineup I would think he’s scoring over 105 if he gets a first round knockout
And he is last I looked he was plus 115 to win in round one so my plan in my head is to match his round one not match uh make my minimum his round one odds so plus 115 uh right now that’s like right right
Below 50% it’s 46 and a half% so maybe I put minimum 46 and a half% on the S but then i’ I’d also be fine getting up to like 60 70% Kennedy and he could get a quick win bonus too he could go out there and get a 40 second knockout and
Then he’s on the optimal lineup so I’m gonna be heavy on him the only thing is I’m fine putting Moises in my in a Kennedy lineup I’m fine putting Davis in a Kennedy lineup I’m I’m fine putting mirar in a Kennedy lineup so that might take me down to like my my minimum
Exposure but I’m still going to have probably 45 plus percent Kenedy in my lineups but if I have 45% I might still be underweight to the field so I don’t know maybe maybe my preferred play is to get away from him hope that he get he respects OSP a little bit too much
Doesn’t land a lot of volume knocks him out in the second round and and doesn’t get there ownership wise that’s probably what I what I think I would want but I haven’t built lineups yet I’m not sure I built one shell lineup and Kennedy I’m
Pretty sure is in it so we’ll see how it goes but on the solver I would be fine if it gives me a little bit more like if if I end up with like 45% mirart and I’m doubling the field on him I’m not completely against that yeah I mean I if
I loved everything and I had 100% Kennedy and I felt good about all my teams I’d obviously play it I don’t think that’ll be the case um again I try and I try and not hold hands with like 70 people Kennedy will be the highest owned player or the fighter on the Slate
So if I’m playing 100 lineup or something finding a 100 good Kennedy teams a little tougher for me but I want plenty of them I mean he has all the upside in the world I think OSP sucks I will say because it’s still fresh in the that from last week there’s nothing
Worse big Marley than a freaking three or a one minute and one second finish I will just say there is nothing worse than missing that bonus just like back in the day before they changed the bonus there was nothing worse when a dude went out there and starched him in 10 seconds
And you somehow get out scored by like a a war that went the distance and stuff like that so yeah people are going to complain regardless I think DK it right adding the minute bonus but yeah I mean it’s toon you missed that [ __ ] by a second I will milliseconds I will say
That Von flu choke coming I hope not I definitely hope not two fights left big Marley two solid fights interesting Coman event though Brian battle an Lusa minus 183 Brian battle plus 158 an Lusa this fight’s plus 110 to finish now I will say this fight opened plus 160
Inside the distance so money has been coming in on the under Brian battle plus wow he’s taking plenty of money even of yesterday plus 165 inside the distance now anoa plus 500 so I’ll say I had this fight I’m picking anoa uh he’s definitely my I mean I’m
I’m picking the dog to win of course he’s my preferred play for a thousand less I mean he’s very durable which is part of the reason I Brian battle is underweight um but man this inside the distance prop coming down to plus 165 at 8500 and I do think his only ship will
Still be capped with dgan right there and stuff so I might actually change and get a little more Brian battle anusa is still my preferred play though because I think striking is close battle’s been susceptible to takedowns an Ana is starting to wrestle more volume still
There 124 115 in his last two fights at 7600 I mean the floor is pretty high it looks plus 110 for this fight to to finish so expect to go the distance volume takedowns High floor ceiling at 7600 as I see it so yeah I’m on the dog here but
Yeah talk to me your thoughts because the battle inside the distance prop moving is definitely interesting and I had it underweight but I might change that I mean yeah maybe B battle’s probably more dangerous I would think but I mean I don’t I don’t know um but Luc is more Luc is so
Durable so I really have a hard time seeing battle get a finish in this one and I do think this is really close close to a pick them fight in my opinion so I’m definitely on the underdog in this one Luca can strike at a high Pace
He’s got power too and he can mix in wrestling and he scored 115 and 124 both incisions that’s the that’s what I like to see so I think he’s he’s live to go out there and get six plus takedowns in this fight and still score 100 plus in a
Decision it also wouldn’t completely shock me if Luca went out there and got a knockout or a submission so I mean I I guess I’d be more surprised by submission but he go out there and knock out battle but I expect this fight To Go the Distance Vegas expects this fight to
Go the distance if the fight goes the distance it’s gonna be hard to for battle to pay off an $8,600 price tag and it won’t be that hard for Luca to do it so I will for sure be overweight to Luca and I will be underweight to battle
Um there’s uh like three or four underdogs on this card who who I’m picking to win and if I’m not picking them to win I think they have a high ceiling I’m just going to be overweight on my dogs hoping that I’m right and then I’ll mix in a bunch of favorites my
Favorite Kennedy lineup hopefully I’ll have that same lineup with Moes hopefully I’ll have that same lineup with Davis and mirar and Chason like that’s how I see it going in my head uh but who knows I haven’t built lineups yet uh but this is one where I see me
Going overweight to the underdog he could possibly even be my favorite Underdog on the card and then battle I want to fade him to be honest with you but if he does get a finish then maybe we need him so so I’m not going to X them out I’ll just be
Underweight I’m definitely going to keep uh keep battle underweight after what you said but I definitely am not going to X him like plus 165 even if I got like 25 even 30% battle and I loved everything else in my script because 8600 you know dial garan’s 8500 and then
You know the main events are going to be owned heavily we’ll get to that 8379 and then people wanted can or Mike Davis or something like his ownership has to be and Luca’s I don’t think we’re the only ones saying this about Luca too like I think people will see the game
Logs Etc so I do think Luca gets some ownership as a dog one of the more popular ones which makes battle even more interesting there so yeah I’m gonna play some battle but Luca is my preferred play and my pick in this fight for sure but I have more interest in
Battle now than I did coming into the show and a lot of that has to do with that inside the distance prop and of course where he is priced last fight on the car big Marley still got people hanging in there watching hour 11 in we appreciate every single one of you if
You’re watching on playback appreciate you guys as well what’s going on Raven hit that like hit that subscribe always appreciate and of course you want to join us you want all of our MMA content projections ownership fight rankings fight breakdown I just put that dgan one
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Big boys pretty much a coin flip taiu iasa marcine tyur depending on where you look like DraftKings minus 115 minus 105 tie bet online minus 117 minus 103 Tai is a slight favorite is the consensus right now this fight is minus 1,000 the Finish Tai tuasa minus 115 inside the
Distance marcine tybera plus 115 ownership’s gonna be pretty close uh let’s see what we have right now I’ll say it out loud because it is important 46 and 44 so we pretty much have straight pick them I agree with that the three the $400 difference from
Tyur with a pretty close money line has his ownership even higher like earlier in the week when Tai was around minus 125 I thought we could see like a 50% 40% or something like that Tai way bigger name the power Etc but with this line in the pricing yeah I think people
Are just gonna click the T Ty bur name a little bit even without the the way less name value I like gun to my head I’m picking Tai because of the power I don’t feel confident in about it one bit DFS though I think I’ve been have more Tai
Burra and it’s mainly for the reason build a tie team take tie out go Tai bur and you’re hardly giving up anything like you’re giving up what 15 cents 14 cents on the money line like so that’s my thought process all Game Theory I don’t really have much to break down the
Like I think the low kicks will be money for Ty early the power is definitely on tie the longer the fight though goes I favor tyur if this fight hits the mat tyur or Tai is gonna be in a world of trouble because I think it’ll be tyur on
Top does he just hold him against the fence like it’s a smaller cage I think that probably benefits tyur so yeah I can go break down that stuff Game Theory wise though ownership pretty much a coin flip prefer the 400 savings with tyur because you can do more with the roster what you
Got yeah I think my plan is just to be completely Allin on this fight 100% of my lineups will have it it’s minus 1,000 to end inside the distance so it’s a 90% chance that it ends early but I I mean even in a tyur decision win he could
Make the optimal so I think I just want to lock it in I want to make a rule one of these Fighters is in every single one of my lineups I think it’s either um a first or a second round knockout from tuivasa or I think Ty bah finishes them
Maybe after that um I I do have one of these guys in my core plays over there at shipin nation.com though so you can figure out which side I think that’s going to happen but either way I think you should load up on this fight if you
Think tuivasa is going to win maybe get 60 60% tu Vasa go 40% tyor if you think tyor is going to win maybe do the opposite but uh I think this will be on the optimal lineup I think we’re going to score 100 plus from whoever it is and
They’re priced right there in the mid-range so I feel I mean not strongly I don’t really feel like I know who’s going to win the fight I just feel strongly that it’s going to be on the optimal lineup and then my exposure will kind of feel strongly over there over at shipping
Nation.com so go check it out we got all Sports we’ve been crushing all the sports Discord is on fire uh so I hope to see you guys over there but good luck to you tidle good luck to everybody listening let’s ship it he yeah let’s
Run a little better than last week uh I have not looked at any prize picks I I’ll say it from the top I only play DFS uh MMA Ian sports bet it sometimes I live bet I think live betting MMA is the biggest Edge out there in terms of
Sports betting any sports um but yeah I don’t do prize pick so I’m not going to say something I can get enough action DFS that I like is the reason for that um so I’m not going to say something I don’t play last thing though Stephen is
A rule thumb about how much money can be left on the table in MMA no it’s slate dependent in my opinion is how I approach it there’s been winners that have left 2500 on the table there’s like you can definitely leave a lot I don’t usually leave that much um when it gets
Like the 2500 that I leave it’s like a short notice someone that was priced as a dog is now the favorite in pricing all that I think a general rule Ru maybe 1,500 1,200 1300 maybe um but yeah no strong rule I mess around with builds
Hand builds and stuff and then see where you feel comfortable with like today I always look at like um the favorite work can I drop off from the favorite to the dog and feel good the biggest Gap was filo and ode Osborne today at 87 and 75
So probably 1,200 is where I Max it um as a general rule but yeah that’s what I got good stuff Marley good breakdown as always I’m going I’m always late I’m going to try and shorten these up just a tad bit for you because you got to pick
Up your kid I know it good luck everybody out there let’s ship something let’s ship something big Master’s 15 15% off head of the nation check it out for big Marley I’m title Town good luck this week and be safe have a good one Yeah no
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