2024 Houston Open Picks, Research, Guess The Odds | DFS Fantasy Golf Picks

Pat Mayo takes a deep dive into stats at Fantasy National making early 2024 Houston Open Picks with a first look and research for this week’s PGA TOUR event.

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SHOW INDEX

00:00 Intro
00:48 Quick Info
3:01 Course Flyover
5:24 Course Stats
8:13 Tournament History
13:17 APEX HEIGHT
18:32 Past Stats at Course
24:38 Model/Results
39:19 Mixed Conditions
39:39 Results
44:50 Guess The Odds

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A experience experience Experience P Mayo experience experience welcome to the pat Mayo experience presented by Underdog fantasy if you have not used code Mayo at Underdog fantasy to get yourself a firsttime deposit match of up to $100 as of yet what are you doing go do that right now the link is down in the

Description still a ton of PGA we have some March basketball going on I hear uh did not do so great the bracket’s doing okay but some of my picks were not great this week got to find a new friend to listen to as it pertains to the bracket

But you know we’re down to Houston for the research the picks and it’s a tournament that we’re used to seeing in the swing season and it’s not like it was devoid of a lot of talent like Scotty Sheffer plays in Houston almost every single year he is playing here

This week so I suppose like betting advice for the week sheffler at I don’t know 3 to one 2 and 1 half to one whatever the hell he opens at you it’s probably going to be the right bet cuz he should dominate this course it is

Worth noting he has not won at Memorial Park as of yet uh this course tends to play a little bit over power for the field the winners were obviously going to be in like double digits when fow won here he kind of stormed everyone as a

Part of the field and just you know he led wire to wire as a part of his victory so it’s a long course it’s a par 70 with five par threes three power fives but it’s over 7400 yards it is daunting and you have a ton of runoff

Areas which we’ll see in the flyth through here in a minute elevated greens I think that you want to be targeting some high ball hitters here because it will test you almost T to Green but if you are short off the tea you’re going to have to make it up with some

Excellent long iron play or just run a hot putter the path of least resistance it’s one of those courses where driving distance is just going to pop up every single time as a tiebreaker listen just because I mean maybe cam champ can come back and win the valpar that would be

Great and maybe champ champ Camp ends up becoming a great play for the week however just because you hit the ball a zillion yards that’s Derek Ernst okay I mean it worked like once at Quail Hollow 12 years ago if that’s the only skill you present you may want to get to Vegas

And go into one of those long drive competitions rather than play on the PGA Thor you know what I mean it’s not just going to guarantee you a ton of success at any given course however if you could match it with some other things then all of a sudden could be incredibly helpful

It’s a field of 144 you still have time to qualify for the Masters so there are some names in the field the field next week at Valero the week before the Masters a little bit better but that’s just where we’re at right now with these tournaments I’m excited to get into the

Texas Swing although this isn’t going to go bent bent bent like we usually see into the Masters in terms of grass type this is going to be played on Bermuda so keep that in mind um and it’s at a different type of year than we’re normally used to seeing at Memorial Park

For Houston as I mentioned so moving it from November or the end of October into March you know the conditions just might be wildly different just like when the Masters was held in November that one year just [ __ ] was off you know what I mean so let’s get to the course it’s

Memorial Park GC 7435 yards that is it’s a long course as I mentioned there are five par 3s on the course there are three par fives of the par3 is the number 11th the 237 yard Par 3 is the toughest hold of Birdie on the coming in with around a 6% birdie rate

In 2020 when Tony fow ran train on the field he birdied the easiest of the power 3es in three of the uh three of the four rounds that would be number two the 167 yard par three that has a birdie rate of just over 18% fow carded a 62 on

The Friday uh the last time that we saw this played uh because it was off the schedule last year it got moved because it wasn’t a part of the Swing season this year even when playing lights out he was still only minus two on the power

Fours for the week and he kind of like I said just kind of ran over everyone got to stick your approach close 42.5% of birdies birdie putts come within 5T here that’s well above the tour average of 36.8% then you got the par fives hole

Number 16 can really be a hinge hole 26% of the field goes under par but 17% score over par that is a huge discrepancy as a part of five yeah the real hinge hole number 16 a 133% bogey rate a 5% Double Or Worse rate an eagle

Rate under 1% 26% birdie rate so that is a complete hinge here uh there is a real Edge to be had in draftking Showdown as well going front or going back to front means you run into two of the three toughest holes on the course with both

Carry a 10% birdie rate or lower an over par rate of 25% however when you go front to back holes 8 n and 10 all have a birdie rate over 12% whole 8 30.1% birdie rate is the high second highest on the course the back nine is

The tougher set of holes but golfers get ready for it uh ramping up into everything going from front to back we’ll give you a bit of an edge in showdown at least in my opinion I mean just based on the stats it’s just the way it’s going to work out it’s not even

Really my opinion hole number one is incredibly difficult or number 18 is incredibly difficult so just do with that what you want and you’ll probably end up being pretty good on that front we’ll jump over to Fantasy national.com right now and we’ll check out what’s going on on the scorecard like I

Mentioned you go front to back you can see number 18 the third toughest number one the second toughest so if you do go 8 N9 10 eight and 10 pretty easy I mean listen number 10 does play overpower as does number nine they’re not super easy

Holes but you get an easy one in the mix and the birdie rate is way higher as I pointed out before and we just sort by yardage in general you see some pretty daunting power fours here you have four of them three of them sorry that are

Over 500 yard another one that is 496 another that is 490 those are five of the six most difficult holes on the course you can see a bogey rate I mean basically between those five holes the field Bogies them 1/4th of the time so a quarter of the time you’re making bogey

Then even a little bit more you’re making worse not a ton of birdies to be had and you’d think I mean listen I don’t do a ton of research it’s actually kind of fun for me on this course because I don’t usually do the research shows during the like

Swing season so I I always just think it’s a little bit of fun to go do it this way when we’re trying to figure it out because now I can kind of really dig into the stats and try to really acclimate myself with the course I’m familiar with the course I know the

Course I still make my picks but to do the Deep dive I’ve never really done that before on the show publicly it’s usually just something quick that we do so you’d assume because the 200 yard plus bucket on approach 26% would be you know it’s it has the plurality of approaches coming there

With the longer power 3s the longer power fours and the power fivs when you go and take a look at the stats I think and this is what my best guess is going to be is that probably the 175 150 or 125 bucket is actually more pertinent this week because that’s where you’re

Going to score from just because you hit you know a good approach from 237 yards or something like that it’s not necessarily a birdie try you’re just hoping to get it close and two-putt and then be on your way uh Tom do did a complete renovation of this this course

In 2019 by the way it started in January the course reopened in November Brooks Kea assisted with that and the big thing that he did the renovation and redesign brought Ravines and water into play but it reduced the number of bunkers from 54 to 19 on the course three of them

Surround the 18th green there’s runoff areas false fronts everywhere and many elevated greens along the way so that’s why my initial lean towards highball hitters uh we’ll see if that actually tracks I mean whether it will whether won’t I mean just because is Chris gup

Going to win this week the guy has the highest a Apex percentage of anyone on the PGA tour probably not but he is playing a little bit better golf as of right now you got to find different ways to to get tricky here with Scotty in the

Field and Windam Clark in the field only because who the who knows what’s going to go on with these guys are they just going to kill everyone once again I mean probably it’s probably going to be the case the course history if we take a look at it again these are all from

November so take them with a grain of salt uh you know or if they’re right you know say hey Pat thanks for showing me the course history here Tyson Alexander was second last time around fow one Alexander Ben Taylor Alex noren Alex SMY Aaron Ry so some short hitters here with

Norin and Ry but then you have the Bram wagon you see Damon Damon has two top 10 finishes here the past two times that he’s played and although this say 2023 it was a part of the 2023 season it was played in 201 and22 so just to give you

Some background on what fow did his 65 on Thursday he won at minus 6 16 by the way that was four ahead of Tyson Alexander uh yeah he opened with a 65 on Thursday that was good for a three-way tie of the first round lead 62 on Friday

Put him four ahead and he just kind of coasted all the way to the end of everything you see Gary Woodland wam Clarks Keith Mitchell Scotty Sheffer all inside the top 10 that Year Jason day just outside I like Jason day a lot this week but it’s all really going to depend

On what happens with the odds like he comes in at 14 to one I’m probably not going to bet Jason day you see mad mcne not having a terrible week at valpar he ended up making it through the cut he has three top 20s and four starts at

This course we know he’s long off the tea and he can he can get listen his approach game is just absolutely horrendous and it is again this week but can you get away with that probably not you just kind of need to luck into a really good week and hopefully he does

His normal great chipping great putting great driving and then you’re off to the races we’ll see how he did in Houston here yeah he actually had two really good approach years funny cuz he didn’t putt those years like completely lights out maybe when you ratchet up the

Pressure a little bit you’re just not legging putts in from 50 F feet every single time to try to two put that your putting might actually get a little bit worse I mean that’s one of the drawbacks and flaws of Strokes gained in a lot of

Ways that it does penalize some guys who hit the ball really close to the hole because if you miss a six foot birdie putt then that’s not great um but if you’re just kind of lagging it up every single time you’ll get credit for the lag and credit for the make marginally

So but you have fewer instances of really trying to drop a lot of Strokes on that front his top six finisher the top six finishers on the leaderboard that year all gain Strokes on the field putting from about 5 to 10 and 10 to 15

Feet four of them lost ground from 15 to 20 feet so the year previous to that was 2022 you can see Scotty sheffler came T2 that year because Jason kokra won at minus 10 two ahead of sheffler and two ahead of CR or of was it Kramer h no

Kevin TW who was not in the field this week but you see Tony phen won in Puerto Rico before there’s Martin trainer he’s a Puerto Rico Open winner himself so just trying to throw out some Vibes here of what might be going on a little bit

At some of these courses I mean Sheffer he won the Masters so maybe Masters correlation here it’s not what I’m saying what I am saying and Puerto Rico yeah Damon came in second there one year maybe there is something maybe these greens raid out the same or maybe

Because it’s just such a driver heavy course who knows Vegas was another one who played really well uh at the Puerto Rico open over the years so just seeing some names kind of crop up from time to time you see Alex SMY with two top 15 finishes the past two trips to this

Course Adam long very short hitter did have back-to-back t11 finishes kokra saved his best for Sunday shot a 65 on Sunday and separated himself over the weekend he was seven better than Sheffer and 10 better than TW over the final two rounds the finishing position for the

Best Putters for the week starting in order 29th first 2 fifth I think I did Scotty leave the field in putting that week that would be insane if he did uh no KRA KRA LED sorry Kelly craft Leed KRA then TW then trainer so I assume Sheffer like putted himself out of the

Tournament let’s see yeah zero he gained 11.5 Strokes teer green that year but that was not good enough to get it done need to make a few more pots something what she’s doing at this moment like it’s hard to get in front of anyone when Scotty and Windam for that matter are in

The field this time around Carlos Ortiz W in 21 he’s had a good run uh in the Texas tournaments over the years he beat Hideki and Dustin Johnson by Two Strokes 68 or better in every round he was 65 on Sunday that year um Ortiz wasn’t really

Anything special off the tea but he was top five in the field in shipping and putting where he gained almost 12 Strokes against the field that year you see M Hughes t30s each of the past three times at this course Jason day was t7 that year you see mad mcne again there

Was feno so fow t24 cut first since the redesign the redesigned first year they played it was 2020 the year that lantto Griffin ended up winning one one clear of Mark hubard and Scott Herring did not that strong of a field in that year but the past few times like you’ve had real

Guys actually play in this tournament so he won at-4 so – 16 – 10- 13 -4 are what the winners have done at this course now it comes like the important part and maybe it’s such a small sample that it won’t really tell us anything that we

Need to know but maybe we’ll try to find some of the stat profiles of guys that did really well at this course see Trey Mullenix is up there my guy Trey Mullenix I will tell you too uh right now in terms of Apex height I’m not sure

Exactly how many of these guys in the tourament I assume gup is playing uh before we get into that so we’ll throw Apex let’s see is G up playing got to got get up get down no yes he is in the field there he is so he is number one in

Apex height drie is set he is also in the field banhan an is not in the field he’s number three oer is not playing Keegan is not playing wacky valami comes in number six we saw that really translate well I don’t know why it’s on

That let’s see here can we get rid of this H click off of it uh let’s see wacky valami Jason day Sam Stevens cam young Rico H Kevin dhy Kevin dh’s actually been pretty good Ho’s actually making putts at Copperhead which is terrifying considering bet him in Puerto Rico yeah Jason day is

Playing Sammy no Sammy valami is not playing however Stam Stevens is what a big Kev dhy oh yeah big kev’s in the field see how big Kev is not doing great in the short-term modeling by The Strokes game but let’s see what he’s been up to miscut Mis cut Mexico he made

The cut great ball striking dude cannot chip to save his life and basically cannot putt either I’m going to open up Porto Rico just see if there’s any names that kind of pop off the page uh just in case that is something that comes through Windam Clark is slightly after

That Davis Riley Hayden Buckley McKenzie Hughes who we did see with those decent finishes here minwoo Lee is minwoo playing nah minw is not playing who are the best guys in the field so Scotty Clark gim mcney the gala is playing hogi hogi can’t chip and that just unless you

Hit every Green regulation that’s going to be tough I would guess that Jake knap would have been up there Keith Mitchell is top 25 in Apex height so far this season cam champ is number 25 higo is number 21 Josh terer is 20 so those are

A few names ad DDC Adriel Dumont dish zotus is playing he’s top 30 feno is still top 30 I think he was top 10 the years that he ended up getting it done at this course Jagger was another name that we saw up there he’s 34th for the

Year Grayson Sig currently 30th but you just worry I mean he ended up making the cut again he is in the field and he’s been great but like dude can’t putt like it is outrageous how terrible he is on the greens maybe he can finally find something Carl Yuan inside the top 50

Pearson Coy Sam Burns another guy with the top 10 here Chan Kim Tyson Alexander so I think that there is something too this Apex height at this course in particular just when you see like we did the fly over you see how many of those greens are just propped up like getting

Them to stick and not falling into those runoff areas are going to be really huge uh and keeping it on the green so you just don’t want to have to rely so much on the around the green game and you know just guys getting frustrated thinking they hit a really good shot put

Bit tooo much spin on it and boom it’s coming back down 30 yards off the green into the rough and then you’re on the collar and you might [ __ ] up your shot if you end up doing it that way so uh I would I would look that up I mean I’m

Going to factor that in when I think about it make some decisions that way I’m not like I said I’m not going to be like Chris gup you I’ll probably end up betting Chris God up now because of this but you know he’s going to be like 300

To one or something like that probably actually not the the the books love Chris gdup uh I did want to take a look at the what did I say where are we at here there we no that’s not it leaderboard here we are Puerto Rico open for this year Bryce

Garnett short hitter who ends up winning Eric bonds Victor pres I think Perez was another one who was actually kind of up there in the a actually no he is like the exact opposite of Apex he’s second last on tour behind Cameo Vega some guys

At the bottom like lonto who won here so maybe that’s the opposite I don’t know what his stats were for that year you see adrey dant good Apex height good Apex height for I guess no one really here Matty Schmidt he gets Matia Schmidt and Matty Schmidt both looking good on

That front getting back in there twice Eric Barnes is in the like upper half in case you were wondering about him so but he was WD after being like plus eight Sam Stevens popped up there we saw him McLure messener like I mean I don’t know

If this guy’s appeared of the Pierce and Cy Allstars but mcla masser sounds like his dad had a lot of money Maverick McNeely Pearson Cy Parker Cy M missenger are names that could you know yeah listen if you were in a pinch you need someone to loan you 100 Grand you found

One of these guys they probably just got like in in their couch or something like that LE what it sounds like go to their family home and just pull it out of the safe or something probably not even in a safe at that point those are some of the

Guys that played well in Puerto Rico where did Kevin dhy finish again what did I say he was 36th no he missed the cut in Puerto Rico not great pal not great on that front whatsoever anyway that’s just what I wanted to kind of look at so stat profile for the course

Uh now we get back to that a little bit so we can see TAA green obviously very important putting but a full scope of TAA green see is he very little red on this like Jagger was able to do it with chipping and putting alone which is kind

Of funny because that’s like the opposite of what he normally does Keith Mitchell does I mean he keeps melting down on the weekends uh he’s in the hunt at Valspar as in the third round like he’s just you know lingering there’s like 48 guys who are just kind of

Lingering directly off the lead right now you seen Windam Clark G across the board and in putting same as Ben Griffin bramlet kind of did the same thing but dropped some Strokes putting Damon’s Tea Green was very good here the leaders the T green the last time that we did see it

Tyson Alexander Adam hadwin again Adam hadwin’s like two off the lead at Copperhead right now sheffler feno bramlet noren Rogers Davis Riley a lot of these guys have actually played really well at Copperhead like we see that you know hadwin has his win there bramwell’s playing really well this week

Patrick Rogers not so much a Time Woodland former winner Keith Mitchell is playing really well right now small has played well there in the past Davis Riley lost in a playoff to Sam Burns at valpar so that’s somewhat interesting here’s what I want to get to though

We’ll take a look at the fairways and greens as we kind of go with these guys so you see a mixx between guys that either gain a bunch in driving distance so for the top five last time gained a lot on the field but only Fina was able

To Parlay that into Fairways gain you see a lot of Fairways and guys aren’t losing significantly these are wider Fairways so you know take that with it that you guys are going to have to go Hog Wild here Woodland gained a bunch you see a lot here in this middle

Section of players that gained a lot in terms of driving distance but weren’t dropping like outrageous amounts I mean the gall was the one who dropped an outrageous amount in terms of accuracy but where were they doing was it were they avoiding the left were they avoiding the right yeah really seem to

Make a difference Green in regulations obviously very high uh it’s going to happen in a week where that happens good drives so good drives you know kind of popped up which was a stat that we were looking at valbar this time around it’s just hard to imagine just the way that

Scotty is playing right now because of the distance combined with his accuracy just makes it terrifying and so maybe the top five Market top 10 market and what do you do in DraftKings will end up becoming a more prevalent conversation this week we’ll take a look at the proximity gained feno lost significant

IFly to the field from Beyond 200 yards that wasn’t that big of a deal where did he gain let’s see here you see the top four guys on the leaderboard gained a bunch top three at least gained from 75 to 200 most gained 125 to 150 150 to 175

You know three of the top five lost to the field Aaron Ry lost to the field he lost to the field like everywhere except for from Beyond 200 yards so there’s a lot of different ways that you can do it obviously there’s not going to be one

Bucket that stands out clear above the others but thought it was kind of interesting that the guy who ended up winning by so much ended up just losing with his long irons and maybe that is a complete outlier let’s look at 2022 to see if it was anything different as it

Pertains to where the proximity was coming in from uh no not really I mean kokra gained a bunch TW gained marginally Sheffer Hickock Damon trainer and streb all lost from Beyond 20000 yards the 125 to 150 bucket most people lost from there uh the 150 to 175 that’s where the

Big gainers were 175 to 200 Big gainers there a lot of the time except for TW who just like was abysmal from that range and listen guys aren’t going to hit it into the same buckets guys who hit it longer are going to have shorter

Clubs in da da you know the deal by this point but just to try to get a sense of it it does seem like 175 150 those two you see a lot more green going down the list than anything else uh and we’ll take a look at 2021 to see if that kind

Of continues to jive with what we were looking at Ortiz is going to be horrible here if he gained what did I say it was 12 Strokes between chipping and putting yeah I would assume his proximity Is Not Great it was from 175 and 150 there we

Go it was just really bad from in close 175 almost unanimous gainers across the board ditto with 150 so those are going to be our two areas that we’re going to hone in on this week once again I want to let you know to go to Underdog

Fantasy.com right now use code Mayo to get your first s a firsttime deposit match of up to $100 that link is down in the description right now as well and the pat Mayo experience listeners League is on Underdog right now it’s a Thursday only tournament for the moment thank you

All for filling it so quickly for the valbar let’s do the same again it’s a completely rake free tournament you have to draft so it’s a bit of a different style I like working in these new games I’m really working on getting them to do the full tournament rather than just the

Thursday but this is what we got for right now it’s $20 to play three max entry uh $10,000 in the price well there’s only 500 spots so spots tend to go pretty quickly but the tournament doesn’t get released on Underdog until the tea times have been announced on

Tuesday afternoon so check back on Tuesday afternoon get yourself the underdog name right now underneath code mayo and then boom you get yourself a first-time deposit match of up to $100 so you deposit 100 you get 200 right away that gives you what if you max out

The pme open that’s completely Rak free which I assume is the best tournament on Underdog the only one that is rake free especially as it pertains to PGA right now now that you know you have at least 3 weeks that’s if you lose every single time with only 500 people you should be

Able to do a little bit better than you did in the 5,000 person tournament that we used to have we’re going to grow this one it’s going to get bigger but we need your help so get on Underdog right now and if you play in some of the states

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Now hit the link in the description and help out the show thank you let’s jump into the modeling and see how we’re doing here Houston model I did update this I’m not going to liey I didn’t want to walk it through a little bit so

Here’s what I got going on off the tea 19% 20% whatever it is I was just using the sliders approach 25% around the green 10 putting 10 we’ll throw those ones in in fact we can actually even get rid of putting we can add a stat to this

We’re going to add in 5 to 10 and 10 to 15 because in the notes that popped up so many of the players that’s where they had to be clutched from and when I did my research show last year and talked about which putting stats are actually

Sticky those were the two ranges that ended up being the stickiest over the course of the Season that they weren’t necessarily completely predictive but far more predictive than maybe you think uh let’s go to the proximity bucket what did I say 150 to 175 let’s Crank that

One up so 7% for that 7% for 175 to 200 this entire model will appear in my free newsletter probably Monday evening you can join down in the description Mayo media substack if you’re looking for it uh I said completely free to join just get the email sent to you par Force 450

To 500 yards 10% opportunities gained uh so birdie chances 7% par FES gained 7% and those puttings at five and five each will update the model I mean there’s no amount of modeling that can knock Sheffer out of one but I am curious to

See who comes in else at the top so this is over the past 24 rounds we have Scotty sheffler number one Hollywood hogy number two gim Clark feno those are the top five this is before the numbers of the valpar championship have been entered so just keep that in mind Tony

Feno seeoo Kim how’s your burger btio okay now we’re talking here baa another guy who played really well in Puerto Rico let’s go baa money on B money wasted love it Kurt kyama yab bombs Johnny Vegas Bud collie I did say I was going to bet bud colie in Texas he

You know kind of choked away the cut line at the valpar but first cut he’s missed since his return Jake knp Kelly craft will zot Tores Keith Mitchell Joel Damon again there’s Carson young Aaron W the gala comes in 20th Ryder Carl Yuan Alex noren Nasty Nate Lashley Sig May

Then you got horel Barns hubard and Russell Knox that is the top 30 in the overall rankings right now and that’s only for the past 24 what we can start doing is building out a mixed condition model uh to kind of take a look at everything and I don’t want to look too

Much into course history here because it is a different type of year but what we will do is go to the where we want we want rolling model and this will give us Strokes gain total but that’s okay what we want to go to is Houston for this see if that ends

Up working for us hopefully it’s not AR something went wrong no it didn’t so what we want to do now is edit and we’ll play around with it like I usually do so last four we’re not going to give the greatest weight to but we’ll call last

Four right around last 100 uh last eight we actually will give some because we want to have some good recent form coming in so we’ll do last eight last 12 and we’ll shrink down last 24 last 50 so we get a good Baseline so 8 and 12 are

The highest slightly behind 24 so 23 20% and this is just taking the ranges of the model that we just built so we’re going to update that see who comes out uh because factoring the very short and the very long we give us some different answers to the test here so Chef for

Still number one Windam Clark obviously with the way that he’s been playing that makes a ton of sense see Kim Tony feno Doug gim will zorus okay Aaron Ry hogi Ryder Lashley Vegas Bud collie Jagger Kelly craft we saw what the hell was Kelly craft been up to how does he

Rating out well am I missing something with Kelly craft no he played one tournament so far this year oh because he played pretty well through the swing season actually that kind of makes sense because he hasn’t been playing Rico is there there’s Keith Mitchell and Damon

So a lot of the similar guys but you see Vic Perez jump up Hayden Springer and Mark hubard who does have a second place finish at this course oh my God Chris gup and that’s not even adding in Apex height to anything uh ends up because because he’s been playing a little bit

Better recently t31 Parker Cy Billy horel there’s Kevin dhy stat-wise he actually rates out very well uh for where his range is going to be at 36th let’s see Smotherman gracer has grer been doing well feel like one of these guys who I’m like couldn’t pick out of a

Lineup of one have been playing a little bit better he was 15th in Puerto Rico 47th at Honda okay I mean that’s not terrible by any means so let’s just kind of go with that way is that Phillips guy Captain Phillips I’m the captain now the guy who was leading Chandler Phillips

There he is he is the captain now maybe he’ll win Valspar then say he’s too good for this tournament but what we’re going to do is add this to the mix condition model and with the mixed condition model obviously we’re going to put the Houston rolling report in Boop and that will add

It to our rankings uh we probably want to get rid of that Strokes gain total we’ll updat that update updat that we’ll update that for the moment and we’ll go back to just general scoring and we’ll go into Strokes gained and now we can fool around with this just a little bit

Uh we’re going to increase and actually let’s keep it at 24 rounds just kind of look down the left hand side here so 75% of the time this course plays difficult so let’s just throw in difficulty and try to find out who are the best players on average Strokes G

Total over the past 24 rounds on difficult courses now not everyone has a ton of rounds Rico H only has three but he’s number two in this and it makes sense guys that are good and majors and the best players tend to play well in these situation Sheffer number one you

Know and really gaining a over everyone else Windam Clark then will zator Sheffer and Clark are so much farther ahead on a per round basis on difficult courses than will zot torus it’s kind of insane 3.36 Strokes gain total per round for Scotty 2.61 for Windam Clark in fourth place

Because we’re in third place let’s call it will zot Tores 1.73 that’s almost half of what Sheffer is who’s in first Taurus is in third day is up there seiw is up there Trace crow in five rounds is actually all right I wonder what those five rounds are let’s

Try take a look Farmers Wells Fargo and Honda I mean that’s not really telling me anything how’s Trace Crow been doing Crow not great can’t chip tough scene grayer’s up there though in his three rounds bramlet actually plays the maybe bramlett’s the play said he’s having a

Pretty good valpar he has the distance this we know uh bad at the Players but has been gaining off the te decent in Mexico game with his irons in Mexico so driver heavy course Mexico good driver heavy course and at the farmers pretty good came in

25th so Bram wagon we’re going to throw an early star on there uh Chandler Phillips in two rounds plays difficult course as well big Norm CT pan Vince Norman the gala is up there too so let’s just throw that one bud Callie and Eric Barnes actually popped up on that list

Too so we’re going to put Strokes gain total and and we’re going to throw that into the mixed condition model and we’ll start playing around with this it doesn’t really make a difference yet we’ll do all the waiting towards the end but that’s the first one like I said 75%

Of rounds waited at this course um over time have been there let’s go to Tia green for a second just to see gracer good Lord uh so of the nons small sample people on difficult courses over their past 24 rounds you see Sheffer zator Woodland sewo Burger Clark feno SMY

Plays these conditions really well as is Chris up in 15 rounds I guess hard I would not have pegged him as a I don’t want to peg him anyway but I would not have pegged him as someone who just plays difficult courses better at least

T green we know he can’t putt but you know we’ll see what happens there Cam Davis I guess the players wasn’t playing as difficult as possible so Cam Davis couldn’t show up in that field Ryan Fox on difficult courses does play pretty well you see Parker cudy up there again

I mean am I going to fall into the Ryan fox trap once again I mean probably is the answer to that question question but it’s interesting to see now that we’re playing around with a few of these names of who we see um and so we have difficult courses let’s go to

7400 and above because that is what this is going to play at and try to find out who is the best on average on those uh probably Scotty and the answer is Scotty but then in seven rounds we have Hayden Springer then Sam Stevens then Clark then Eric barns so Barnes and Stevens

Have popped up in a lot of these things the gala is up there oh OE done sold winner God man I can’t wait to see oay in the Masters that’s going to be awesome maybe he already qualified for it anyway now I can’t remember uh good finishes here

Really go a long way this week too mainly because you can get yourself into the top 50 in the world rankings I think the cut off is this week no I think it’s after next week but just getting those points is so alluring right now but oi

Is there Joe heith Lashley Lashley had that good Puerto Rico open run how has he played here over time I don’t remember him popping up with some of those let’s see Houston 38th and miscut never really played all that well but did have the T3 at Farmers so it’s

Either miscut or top 20 finish so here are his past 10 starts 13th mcut miscut miscut miscut third mcut miscut mcut 10th I don’t know if he’s missed enough Cuts in a row to generate a top 20 finish at this point so maybe uh I’ll pump the brakes a little bit there on

Old Nasty Nate but has been doing well on the longer courses so TD green wise uh cuz when we did the total you see Hayden Springer in seven rounds is second in Strokes gain total that is by gaining almost three Strokes putting per round losing Strokes TD green so let’s

Throw Tia green into this one I mean it’s going to give Blaine hail a lot of love here Tom Whitney Tom Whitney’s actually he’s in the mix and valpar as well he’s actually pretty good I think he was at ru’s boy I think he was an Air

Force guy at a Colorado they had a cool story on him at the Tory Pines he played really well at Tory Pines from what I recall I think I had a live bet in on him yeah he play he was 13th at Tory Pines playing well this week so let’s

Throw him onto the list too Palmer Sam Stevens is still up there TI green wise as is z as is feno as his Sheffer as you would expect see wo for a bit of a shorter hitter I am somewhat surprised that he does pop up I remember when I

Had him to win Valero a while back but uh he couldn’t putt his way of a paper bag so it was a bit tough on that front so we’ll keep messing around with this keep updating so that’s long course te to Green so we have difficult course

Total long course ta to Green what else do we have here Bermuda wish we could pick the type of year oh you know what it gives us a chance for the first time ever to use out one of the new filters that we have let’s see here let scroll down to the

State and go to Texas 100% of the time the Texas open is played in Texas who would have thought uh maybe we’ll go do we want to go longer term or shorter term yeah let’s go 12 rounds for this one and we’ll do strokes gain total uh

Strokes gain total we’ll look at the average and who plays the best in Texas Scotty and Sheffer da Stevens noren are your top five uh and in the model rank themselves although all these guys are inside the T I guess because the model rank is now being factored in as Texas

That actually makes a ton of sense don’t mind me Tyson Alexander because he had the good finish here but other decent finishes in only eight rounds or is it just all from Houston let’s see Charles Schwab miscut Byron Nelson miscut all right no need to keep looking into that

One so maybe we do want to factor it out a little bit more let’s say 36 rounds for Texas only to give ourselves a larger sample so one tournament doesn’t influence too much like it just did with Tyson Alexander who did play well at this course obviously so that’s good

News but sheffler feno Tyson Alexander still is still getting I guess the pavage that would make sense Jason day Gary Woodland Burger Stevens colie you know Texas guy and these are for Texas courses only see how collie has done I mean these are going to come from like

2020 and Beyond guy tends to make the cut in Texas TD green game on point in Texas just trying to find good Texas guys norin horel uh maybe 36 goes back too much maybe we just stick to 24 for these ones there’s no right or wrong answer even if

We should be looking at this stuff but I think that that goes back to some of H’s stuff here uh so Sheffer feno Woodland day Burger Stevens noren seu KH Lee on a pretty good run um Vince Norman Patrick Rogers Davis Riley again there’s Bobby Mack in only four rounds and I don’t

Think that includes yeah the match play stuff isn’t included here but he had good run in Austin at the match play on similar type of putting surfaces by the way the Bermuda over there at that P die course not the same course whatsoever one’s super short and is a real shot

Makers course but that’s where we’re at in this one uh despite it being a super long but same similar sort of green so we’ll add this one in so now we’re getting to where we want to go right now we’ll go Strokes gain total Texas and

Throw that one in and we’ll just wait it like wherever update it keep moving on our way what else do we want to take a look at here we’ll click off of Texas and clear our filters so we did difficult we didn’t do Bermuda yet F softness medium softness

For the green so you’re not going to get your firmest conditions you know it’s a split about hitting Fairways the rough is pretty average to short so missing everything average to fast is going to be your green speed so let’s try that let’s try average to fast so no lightning in there

And we’ll put on a firmness once that loads of medium and we’ll click on Bermuda and maybe that can tell us something about putting maybe that’s just thinking way too much into it but that’s what the show is all about right is trying to think a bit too

Much into it so Bermuda greens Green firmness medium green speed average and fast we’ll look at the average we’ll find the putters and who is the best Trace Crow this guy just loves being at the top oh Sam Bennett’s back in the field good for for him Harry

Hall that’s over 14 rounds Wilson fur not to be confused with Aaron BR from that Old got milk commercial but Eric Wilson far Ben Taylor who was second place or third place at this tournament the last time that it was played David not shirts but skins popping up there as

Well and this is just Strokes game putty peon Cody Jacob Bridgeman Patrick Fishburn these are like Crea players now Taylor Montgomery Billy horel so we’ll wait this one super low but we’ll add it in just for kick to try to divvy it up just a little bit and we’ll go with

Strokes game putting add that one in and now we can find what some of our results are going to be from the mixed condition model we can compare them to the overall model that we built a little bit earlier now it does have elements of that with

The Houston rolling model in it and actually you know what there is one more thing that I do want to include into this because I think it’s important to add into any mixed condition model that you ever make is just straight up Strokes gained total just guys that are

Playing well over their past 12 rounds recent form beats everything coming in so we’re going to take the average that’s just the way to look at it Strokes gain total oh big shocker Scotty sheffler um killing everyone in the past 12 rounds coming in we’re going to add

That in Strokes gain total over the past 12 rounds and add that in as well so now we can find our results of the mixed condition model we’re going to wait that pretty heavily uh Strokes gain total in Taxas Tia green last 24 of the past and

Uh yeah uh you know what the one other thing that I’m going to throw in that I’m not going to wait it super strongly where’s driving Fairways and greens and we’re going to wait this to way back we’ll go past 50 rounds just to get a larger sample of everything um and we

Are not going to include courses that are less than 7200 yards now I know that some of these are but that’s why I do the longer filter here I just want to get basically driver mainly courses some of the numbers in here are going to be a

Bad mix but that’s just the way the cookie crumble sometimes and we’re going to go driving distance the best in the field in case you’re wondering champ gup champ gup Norman why does it keep flicking on me stop that bramlet Vegas Kristoff Ventura Ventura Keith Mitchell Woodland Matty Schmidt Windam Clark Ryan

Fox higo big Norm MJ Duffy oh Kevin youu back to take more of my money toasty then you have Sam Stevens piercing Cody Pearson Cody is up there although Parker Parker’s looking like the better player and then you have zotus Dy is up there as well so we’re just going to add this

One in uh we’re not going to give it a ton of waiting we’re going to throw in driving distance add it in and just to give the mixed condition model a bit more diversity uh we’ll throw it you know lower than the past 12 overall we’ll

Wait it the same as that uh weird putting one that we put in with the Bermuda stuff uh past 24 difficult rounds we’ll jack up the price of that a little bit uh the rolling model will you know have a little bit above T green once again I’ll include this into the

Newsletter and now we’ll update the mixed condition model and now what we’ll do is go back to our Houston model and we’ll look at it over the past 24 rounds now once you turn on the filters for 24 rounds 12 rounds whatever it might be that does not affect the mixed condition

Model because we set what we wanted for that so the mixed condition model rank is on the leth hand side the the rank for the Houston model that I built is on the right hand side no shocker sheffler is first in both Windam Clark zotus feno

MAV mcne okay but he rates very poorly in the overall model rank very good I mean 41st isn’t horrible it’s in the upper end of the field it’s not Elite so he is the first one that we’ve seen that is not Elite everyone else is at least

Top 20 in both them and that goes for the gala gim and Collie they’re all top 20 in both Jason day in the overall model rank is bad 128th but he is ninth in the mixed condition model did win in Texas a year ago Jagger is top 10 in

Both Alex noron is exactly 11th in both SEIU 12th and 25th then you got Keith Mitchell great MCM bad model rank over the past 24 rounds who else do we have here Raphael compos usually plays well at the Puerto Rico open is 104th in the model and gup

Is 69th but 19th in the mixed condition model bramlet is way higher Eric Barnes is way higher David skins Victor Perez Andrew Nova back Hayden Springer and Ryan Fox all rid out much better in the mixed condition model than they do in the overall model you see Taylor Moore

Big Norm hogi is someone who gets hurt the other way probably because he can’t chip that unless he hits 100% of greens and regulation he’s absolutely [ __ ] then you have grayer CT pan does better in the mixed condition than he does in the overall model ranking Parker CTI

Better in those as well you have your ATI guys where you know Tom hogi goes from 6 to 35th hubard goes from 9th to 45th there’s Trace Crow again you should probably learn this guy like what he looks like uh to try to make it up to

Him Davis Thompson 17th to 50th uh the opposite way Sam Ryder is eighth in the model rank 63rd in the mixed condition model ranking and again when you’re a member at Fantasy national.com you can make all these things yourself plus you can get yourself as you can see here

Right on the screen to our new leaderboard it’s exclusive to members only so fantasy national.com Mayo to get yourself that 20% discount if you’re watching this in Arta matter this is just for iOS so Apple phones only at the moment but look it’s worth having I’ve been using it all weekend everyone just

Said how great they love this new leaderboard it’s really the way that you’re going to be using a leaderboard and it’s the app you will use once it’s completely open to the public but that’s not going to be for a while so you want

To use it now now is that time I suppose it’s time that we guess the odds for the Houston open the most difficult odds guess that I think I have to do all season long because it’s Scotty it’s Windam Clark it’s will zures and kind of everyone else and if Scotty just went

Off at five and a half six to1 at the Players Championship a full field of the best that the PGA Tour has to offer in a tournament that he was the defending champion at what is he going to do at a Texas tournament where there’s like

Eight good players in the field I think Scotty’s going to open at 3 to one to win the Houston open after that you’re looking at Windam Clark I have it 12 to1 will zat torus 16 to1 those are going to be your big three then you have a level

Down in terms of the odds by my guesses these aren’t the actual odds all right then you have the gala at 20 feno at 25 hogy at 28 hogy Beach then you go into your 30s Jake knap 33 seeo at 35 to1 and then it’s Luke list and kitty Yama at 40

To1 Cam Davis and Bo Hustler at 45 to Taylor Mo and Alex noren at 50 to1 Aaron Ry Ryan Fox 60 thorbjorn olison 75 to1 maybe there are some other names that sneak in there but I don’t think that there’s anyone that I didn’t mention that’ll be sub 40 to1 maybe they open

Stephen Jagger at 40 to1 but he could just as well open at 80 did over for Mark hubard and all the players of that ilk are going to have such a wide range depending on which book you look at at open so I think that those are trying to

Figure out the top three is the most difficult part and then how Scotty being such an overwhelming favorite in this tournament if he does open at 3 to one does that mean fow is going to be 25 as I mean he is the quote unquote defending

Champion at this course it was two years ago but does that mean he goes to 20 does that mean he goes to 35 because Scotty is just sucking up all that win Equity knowing the sports books they’re just going to Rook us on the odds and

Just take more hold so the worst the odds the better for them really so I’ll say the 25 to1 the 28 to1 for some of those guys in that range I will note if day opens 30 or better I will bet Jason day that’ll be my first click of the

Week and maybe I have to bet Trace Crow Apparently after doing the research who knows anyway code Mayo at Underdog fantasy that will really help fantasy national.com Mayo will get you 20% off that membership and access if you have IOS too the brand new test mode for the

Best leaderboard app that I mean that money can buy at this moment and then it will eventually be free to the masses on Android and iPhones but that’s not going to be for a while right now but we need your help testing that out and you get

To use it if you are a member plus all of the tools at Fantasy national.com smash like while you’re here sub to Mayo media Network and I will see you next time experience experience