Ryan and Andy dig into Innisbrook, look at the field here at Copperhead and use the Rabbit Hole to model out some key stats and decide who’s worth betting on this week on the PGA.
Check it all out at Betspertsgolf.com
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0:00 Intro
0:15 Sawgrass Recap
7:00 Copperhead Course
17:00 Key Stats
22:30 Building the Model with the Rabbit Hole
43:15 Bets
Valspar Championship Betting Breakdown: Sleepers, Fades, and Picks to Win
Everyone welcome back in bsbs golf here for the 2024 valpar championship at inisbrook Resorts Copperhead course Andy uh we talked about it last week felt like maybe what we saw at Bay Hill was different turns how we were right Scotty just absolute Clinic uh PGA Tour got a
Massive win with the players what’s going on buddy oh yeah yeah really it’s crazy too the timing of it like how it finished and then like 30 seconds later we had the selection show start like it was just it was an intense I mean depends how far back you
Want to go I guess it depends who you bet on which guy you had that didn’t win or if you had some Scotty but I mean the the whole back nine and honestly I can’t remember what whole number it was but there was that par three he put one
Within range and honestly for the PGA and everyone involved and I’m glad I cash my Scotty tickets but it’s probably good that he missed that putt that was very makeable like it would have I mean we would have been further down the the road and there would have been a lot
Less drama because I mean Windam Windam has it in the bag for sure to make those long iron shots obviously Xander had a couple of nice shots that second shot on the five on 16 um you know the the high leverage putts that you get the one you
Saw or you heard off air or you didn’t get to see it you get to hear it because I had for some reason I wasn’t watching the peacock version until I had to I was just watching like the uh featured groups in one and I had the I was just
Watching 17 on the on another screen so like once everyone got through 17 I’m like oh [ __ ] like I’m kind of trying like I don’t have I don’t have like a live feed of what’s going on right now I had to figure out like what channel is
This on because I was watching on Hulu like I need to figure out so I pull up ESPN plus I pull up Paramount I’m like who has this I like I had to do the Google like oh [ __ ] I got to open up peacock here so I got it open watched obviously 18
Was it’s very dramatic I andan it was right in that range where it isn’t like oh if he is stuck one to four feet you know it’s like all right let’s get ready for a playoff it was right in that middling range where it wasn’t Sanders
Putt that you know this this [ __ ] just ain’t going this happens once a year where you know like Nick Taylor or gosh you remember the Harold Varner putt over in uh yeah over in the made like an 80f footer you know these things can happen but windham’s pot was like as far as
Drama goes it was right in that perfect range he’d left that eagle putt short so you saw how hard he jammed his putt on 17 and I think the caddy was just same thing buddy just give it hell because that looked pretty center cut I you know
In the slowmo it was half down like it was pretty much 50% down it’s about as good as it gets as far as a late drama it was great they both went at 17 no one was going at that flag on 17 and they both did obviously Xander missed his
Seven-footer that gets a little bit uh trickier because you that putt on on 18 means a little bit less but just the fact that they even went for like no one everyone was just hanging out to the left leaving themselves basically a you know lag putt for for par to walk off
But like to go at the pin was was awesome drama too yeah it was it was I think everything that you would want with like I hate that we keep doing this what everything that I see from like Golf Digest or like no no offense to our
Friends over there but like Brian Harmon can hang with the big boys and it’s like good Lord the dude just won the Open Championship I know he Maj he’s a major winner but like it’s such a like backhanded compliment like he I know he’s short and small but it’s just like
A size thing it’s like it’s so whatever I Harmon is a great fit we had Harmon tickets too which were long at 150 he had multiple top 10 there since the redesign like him being in the mix is not surprising wind Clark has been I
Know top five top 10 in the world for solid bid here is once some Big Boy golf tournaments yeah it was he’s the defending US Open champ uh great theater and for Scotty to muscle through with what happened Friday Saturday with the next stuff like pretty cool cool stuff I
Really I guess you know he did a little bit with the you know the t- shots on 16 and 18 but I kind of just expected Xander to dunk it on 17 like just his history and I know we shouldn’t on him because he played really really good
Golf for four days but the fact that it’s like he kind of has to go for this like yeah he’s not he isn’t this guy who you know has lucked his way into the final group of the biggest purse of the Year outside of the playoffs this is a
Bigger purse than the majors this is a ton of money it isn’t a guy that has to think about like I can’t have a six here because it’ll cost me you know 10 times what I’ve made in my career so far you know he’s he’s set he can go for it I
Think that all those guys have had some big paydays like it’s fun they don’t have to have that little thing nagging at them in the back of the mind like man what if I go in the water and I finish Fifth and this cost me like $2 million
Sure like they they went for it and and you knew they were going to which was great and I really just expected Sanders Paul to be wet so for him to for him to you know throw that Dart was awesome good it’s fun just having a good ending
Like a good tournament even though like if you’d have told me Scotty shoots 20 under and be like oh no like this tournament sucked ass then because it was expected to be you know somewhere in the the mid teens like low to mid teens I I thought 145 was a reasonable kind of
Estimate projection for this tournament so if you’d told me TW Scotty shot 20 under I would have said like Sunday sucked it was no fun so it was strange it did play a little easier that’s kind of our theme for the year maybe and we’ll kick it over to
Copperhead of Dennis Brook here maybe we finally get the cure for that because uh maybe a good way to start when we talked about this course some of the changes some of the uh agronomic changes they made because essentially we’re going to the same course with less water
Danger so you say well how’s it going to get tougher then because it is it’s all the same greens or excuse me all the same grasses we’re still in that part of the Year where you know it’s it’s dormant we have the overseed it’s the same kind of rck
Same pretty much the same height rough so I mean maybe talk about talk about what makes this a tough course yeah so we are in the final leg of the Florida swing and as Andy mentioned there were some changes here uh going into last season’s event and uh
The season before uh Sam Burns won like 17 under well last year our leaders uh won you know Taylor Moore at 10 under so the big change came in where the rough basically went from three to almost four by the time you get to like the weekends
Because they’re not going to touch it it’s going to be thick in at four they also brought kind of the apron in around the greens as well and grew that up a little bit too shout out to the 3M open from Andy’s golf cup or uh you know cup
From coffee cup uh but yeah they they made it a little bit harder for uh some of the like you can use that Texas wedge around here because these are there’s a lot of like long approach shots I think like almost 70% of your approach shots into the greens here are from
What 175 plus so like it’s hard to hold these greens you have to be able to have uh you know high ball flight so like distance does matter but there’s a lot of force layups here so it’s a challenging challenging course as you mentioned we’re still on those polar Tri
Greens which are unique to a handful of courses one of which was last week at Saw Grass uh harbort toown San Antonio PGA West where we were a few weeks ago this is not Bermuda this is not California po po trivialis very unique um so looking at putting splits those
Things matter quite a bit Yeah Yeah it you know a lot of people the players will tell you it feels a lot more like a Carolina course with some of the tree line stuff uh where it’s you know Less open less water maybe than a little bit
Of some of the Florida stuff but again danger all over the place and obviously the drinking game of the week is the snake pet uh which is your closing stretch here the final three with a very difficult par three kind of sandwich in between some very stretching par fours
And that’s kind of the unique layout here too we have an extra par three we have five of them this week they’re all 195 plus they all play almost to a scoring average of four is a take your medicine on the threes and fours this week hopefully you can make some damage
On the fives and it just kind of survive and hang keep away from The Big Numbers yeah my notes you pretty much covered everything maybe a little bit of the you know the the the elevation changes that’s I mean just think about anytime you’ve golfed and had a a nasty
Up shot or even a downhill shot you downhill shots these guys have Pro caddies and they’re professional golfers so it’s not the same but it still becomes difficult to judge some of these downhill shots so the elevation change definely come to play you have the blind
Shots you have the dog legs the double dog legs like uh Ryan said you have the five par threes and there’s not an easy one they are all very difficult they’re all very long um you do have to score on the fives the water hazards don’t into play like obviously other Florida
Courses they exist but the real you know the real hazards do become being out of position on a dog leg um finding yourself in the rough because these Fairways are so narrow and the greens are different after the you know after the changes they made but they’re still
Difficult to hit and the rough is right there so I mean it’s not oh I I ended up in this you know shaved runoff area I’m in this in this collection area no you’re in the rough you’re in 4 in rough per here we’ll see what they do for the
Mowing this weekend but it’s it’s I think three and three qus is what the the height was last year I’m not sure how how uh you know how fast that grows if we can get up to four inches over the weekend probably doesn’t take that much
To get some grass growing this time of year so there’s just yeah there’s a lot of ways to get in trouble there’s a lot of longer holes and longer part 3es and you do have to be strategic because you can’t overpower it and again some of the
Issues become because you have to Club down you have these these Force layups these spots where you can’t overpower a dog leg and you have to you know be aiming at a certain area leaving you with difficult approach shots so it’s it is like hit your Fairways hit your
Greens it’s easiest simplest thing to say but there’s some guys that don’t have that in the bag like they don’t have hitting you know 12 13 Fairways on a tough course like this in their bag and if they do it’s because they Club down immensely and then they have you
Know do they have eight or nine 200 yard iron shots in their bag that they can they bust out there’s some bigger names here there are some guys that can do that but man it is yeah this one is we keep doing this this is gonna be a test
Swear to God if somebody wins this at 20 under I’m going to lose my mind we’re just gonna switch to be a live podcast it better be like TW at 12 12 12 is acceptable yeah no you’re right I I agree I mean so like I think Saw Grass
Play played harder over the weekends if you survived it was soft on Thursday Friday I think Bay Hill we got you know Bay Hill going to give you some water holes they also have similar rough where they’re going to grow that out and longer approaches so similar situation I
Think to to this where why it’s difficult there’s there’s some corollary to that but yeah I mean even with the clubbing down you still have last year driving accuracy 54% almost 4 and a half% below a tour average events a driving distance below 280 we are in like Harbortown territory now in terms
Of like average distance off the te it’s about 12 yards below tour average events and again 12 yards further back and they’re still hitting Fairways about 5% less than normal um because the fairways pinch in quite a bit about 26 and a half yards on average width and that’s again
Almost eight nine 10 yards uh shorter or like more narrow than your average in your average Tour event so green a Reger hard almost 10% below toour average as well so like there are some natural designs here besides the water trouble that can kind of keep things in check
And I think I don’t know I’m encouraged it’s a one-ear sample with these changes and we saw it jump from like you know low 20s High Teens down to 10 uh you know you were JT last year top 10 three under um so you know it’s we should have
A little bit more of that where you’re grinding out a 71 take your even day and move on and hopefully you know make some Dam damage on another day because yeah it’s hard it’s it’s hard to hold these greens and you have to kind of scramble
Your face off a little bit so and a decent field as you mentioned like we’re kind of in a unique stretch here we are entering a into the Masters final three weeks we have 10 of the top 30 in the current uh yeah you know whatever you think of the official world golf
Rankings it’s where we are but some decent guys some guys that have won in the past and some uh you know familiarity like I don’t know how sticky that is but I mean before the change Paul Casey wenton here back toback uh same thing with Sam Burns so we
Obviously are ining kind of a new phase ofar so yeah and you know last last week being the players being not only the money but the prestige like everyone’s going if you’re I mean everyone did go anyone within the top H who’s eligible was there it’s always going to be a
Great it’s going to be tough to tell over the next few weeks what we’re going to get for withdrawals there are no Signature Events between you know the the players and the Masters I know some people probably have some sponsor responsibilities like just you know hey
I’m Jordan spe or other Longhorns I have to go play in Texas like that’s just kind of how things go you know that some of those guys do feel beholden to play in certain tournaments but you’re going to get three weeks of like hey here’s three or four or five really good
Golfers who showed up to this one and then and then it’s going to get tricky which is fun because this is uh this is where we like to live this is where we like to bet where we like to you know find some guys in that 30 40 50 60 on up
Range that have the you know have the skill set maybe haven’t put it all together so many times that like have an opportunity to win this event because there are some big names at the top um but not all the big names not all the what are you gonna do not Scotty and
We’re kind of in that phase like I I you know I joked yesterday when I was doing the first look show and I know there’s definitely tied up in prison of the moment and hyperbole stuff like this basically like we get have this right now like Scotty and non-s Scotty events
And uh I mean just watch this Sunday round man like it was was sick he was I mean he was like 12 to1 in the morning yeah and you should argue like that number should have been bigger how far back he was but for sure oh no for sure
It’s still it’s still Scotty shuffler so yeah it is a nons Scotty event so other people will have a chance but there are you know like you said there are some big names here um fieldwise I don’t know like it’s just we’ll get into that I
Guess more when we start modeling we can look at everyone we don’t need to go over the entire field but uh full event normal cut so yeah it is it is the full field I think it didn’t used to have to be said you know it used to have one or
Two events that were weird the playoffs obviously were different but now it does need to be said like 144 normal cut we don’t have the signature stuff so three straight weeks of that before we get into the Masters which again is I mean the Master’s cut is the Master’s cut the
Old people and like the 11 guys who just don’t have a great week end up going home a lot of the olds dropped out uh yeah we’re we’re starting to get low on we’re starting to get low on olds yeah we lost some of the olds but we’ll get
There coming up soon uh all right let’s uh let’s jump into to some of the stuff that we got going on here and uh let’s let’s start to uh see what we can do here um you can go over to the site check out Ron’s preview uh that’s up
There again the I would throw this up toe-to-toe with any other preview that’s out there uh just the amount of actionable data is I think unmatched so definitely go check that out you can get into a little bit more of the weeds than what Annie and I were talking about here
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Are going up prices are going up as soon as they put that jacket on Scotty sheffler uh in a couple of weeks or whoever it ends up being um now that that is the butler cabin that is when the prices go up soon as some people are sitting in there um
100% we’ve we’ve kept prices low for like three years because a lot of uh you know a lot of the stuff was still in Dev we didn’t have the full tool but we are so much cheaper than everyone else we are G to have to get closer to the
Industry norms for pricing on some of this stuff and everything all monthly weekly yearly is all going to go up but good news maybe not for you yeah already yeah if you’re already a subscriber or if you subscribe for any of those monthly weekly yearly before the Masters before they
Put the jacket on during the Masters even grandfather pricing honestly I’ll say forever I’ll do it I’ll say forever if you wna if you want to do a Weekly subscription for the next 10 years lock you into that 10 bucks monthly whatever if you prefer monthly lock you into the
1999 same thing with yearly if you subscribe whatever I’ll I’ll raise this year maybe I’ll do it again in 5 years doesn’t matter if you still recur you know recurring yearly subscription grandfathered in so something to think about if you’ve been on the fence you can the prices aren’t going to be this
Slow ever again because there’s never like a uh oh we’re lowering all the prices like it’s just kind of the way things go with it you know inflation we’re gonna blame inflation so but uh yeah three weeks basically you have until April 15th is that Monday so I
Think the 14th is the last day the prices will be this low so hop in and like Newton said Vivid picks we still going to honor that we still have that offer going sign up for an account deposit five bucks play five bucks you’ll get a promo code you get the yearly for
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You for trying us out while we were in beta uh but now that we continue to I think just increase and improve on the elements that are on what we think is the best tool in the space in terms of modeling golf data uh we need to get a
Little bit more competitive from a pricing standpoint so yeah take advantage of it could still be you even though you weren’t an OG you could be an OG from today and then moving forward in a couple years you’ll be locked in when things continue to uh continue to spike
So it’s a it’s a great deal uh and some of the things that we are adding that come with your subscription we’ve done this in the past I’m excited to get Andy’s opinions because I know Andy loves to bet matchups we have our uh matchup tool back up and much improved
On the site if you go into the tool section go to the uh golf custom simulation section you can price out three balls you can price out head tohe heads pre- tournament simply go down here add the golfer enter the price you can run the simulation it’ll give you
The probability your break even odds and if there’s any EV uh suggesting if you should bet it or not great great tool uh I used it uh this weekend when I was uh you know away and wanted to have a little bit of a thirst for golf this is
Brand new for us again so yeah check this out on the site uh you can also mess around again round by round depending on how your books price it your know tie is a void TI is a loss all those different things check that out
That is up on the site under the tools section now as well let’s let’s model some golf Andy yeah let’s talk uh let’s talk key stats so we got the rabbit hole up we’re going to build a custom stats model to try to find uh you know the
Skill set that might play well here but let’s talk about that skill set first key stats here and it’s already come up a couple times we’ve mentioned it Jeff in the chat has mentioned it like the narrow Fairways kind of uh the theme for the week maybe it’s just going to be driving
Accuracy as we mentioned there’s going to be some clubbing down so some of these maybe off the te accuracy in places where you do clubp down um I guess other things in my list long irons and probably doing what we always do and just avoiding putting which will be
Scotty’s not here so it doesn’t matter but this will before we even build this I can tell you Tony feno is gonna be too high in our in our bottle and granted yes he’s one of the favorites but if we can if we leave up putting uh Tony is
Going to be high as well if we leave out putting f is number one in the model um I mean maybe Xander depending on what we do but yeah that that’ll definitely definitely happen uh and we’ll get there I don’t know if you saw Tony feno gained Strokes putting last weekend
At TBC sress so um all yeah so there’s a lot of different ways to go about this here this week I think it is um it’s a challenging week to model but I think that there are a lot of different ways how do you want to do the anchor stat I
Mean I I think you can go I think you can go a lot of ways what are your uh have you built your model yet I haven’t I have uh I was going to do this one first then I’m I’ll differentiate it a little this afternoon
After I read a couple more things got one more podcast I want to listen to might go for a little after lunch walk trying to get that in um T green it’s just like it has to be right total or t green like it is either who
Are the good players coming in here who’s been coming in well um it could be just TD green 2024 only instead of like the last year okay that gives us a little bit of a different look we me you know we mentioned that last time we built one of
These was yeah it’s tough to do that for the Sony like we have to look at who played well last year because there’s just no telling you know some guys play Swing season some guys don’t some guys play over in Europe a little bit here and there it’s it’s tough to tell who’s
In formed but now that we’re into damn near April I think it’s F to take the 2024 results how have you played this year how are you how are you trending who is you know who is current to medium-term form right now you can see most of these guys are getting you know
Upwards of you know mid 20s and rounds played which I think is okay are probably a little small statistically but I think fairly relevant uh so yeah I’m I’m fine with that no problem with that at all uh I think we should capture something from a difficult scoring condition standpoint point
Because I think that’s where we’re kind of at with this uh new version of of this event I think that that is telling too you can go into sorry I clicked that too fast for folks um you can go into this filter by condition section and you
Can see all all these filters uh just anything you possibly want to get into we will get into a few of the things here but um I think difficult and very diff difficult scoring conditions I think is definitely has an application this week so uh
Do you want to do T green with this as well or should we do strokes gain total what are your thoughts um I like T green okay we can do it twice of course we’re gonna say the opposite thing there I mean you can go ball striking if you wanted yeah
Okay I like that’s a little different uh this is giving me last 12 months we’re getting uh some pretty small samples so let’s back out a little bit see if we can get something from a little bit of a larger sample years yeah that gives us I think more
Relevant data like what we’re trying to actually do here so let’s see what happens here ball striking last two years difficult very difficult scoring conditions cam Young on top Xander feno killer Keith uh Gary yeah Vegas okay Davis Riley’s one here KS has a solo
Second a couple years ago o okay I can get down with this list so we will go difficult scoring last two years We’ll add that all right which yeah Xander last week Trucking I almost felt bad I I would have lost money if Xander won but at a
Certain point I do start to feel bad because he has a a bunch of top fives that don’t start with a one a bunch of seconds so actually I’m not going to bet on him this week but if I lose I guess I hope I
Lose to him that’s fair I did not have that level of compassion for Zander while watching uh the other day but uh yeah maybe maybe now how about off the tea I think there’s a lot of ways to go about it this week there are
Um I did this I’m G show you get your thoughts here I went less than driver but I looked at L than driver because you can go in here and go to off the club off the T Club ction uh off the club uh less than driver I put that in I
Did something where I did less than driver in difficult scoring conditions and and looked at Strokes gain total I think looking at Strokes gain T to Green there as well and not just off the T per se because this is a also a difficult place to gain Strokes off
The te I was gonna say so when you look at off the less than driver you you’re talking about a you’re talking about something that changes BAS off the tea like hey my t-shots are but it’s still you’re looking at the whole round of just cses and rounds that we’ve determined are a
Lot of people a majority a certain percentage take less than driver so even though it’s you’re thinking in your head this is an off the te stat like maybe it’s worth looking at approach shots at something like this where yeah you know hey how is this guy able to to Club down
And put himself in a position for a good approach shot and maybe you know this guy just sucks at approach but then good he should rank low anyway so I don’t hate looking at a secondary stat when you’re sorting for you know a t-shot stat so we’re going to be looking at
Every round at courses where people are clubbing down and I kind of want to look at you know approach I kind of want to look at greens and regulation because this is a you know this is a course that’s going to demand good iron shots
Based on you know were you able to Club down and put yourself in a good position a good angle are you able to beat these dog legs are you able to find the accuracy to give yourself good long iron shots to find these greens that are tough to find so even greens and
Regulations is a decent stat in this so do what you do what do with it what you will but just some uh something I was thinking about I like it yeah I was thinking when I was talking through it yesterday uh look at Strokes game total but I think something in the ball
Striking section whether it’s ta to green ball striking approach I think tells a better story with what we’re actually trying to do by filtering out the less than driver stuffs versus just looking at yeah just Strokes off the te so yeah uh like what you’re like where
Your heads at here this is a getting a lot of the small sample guys we’ll filter out some of these guys here look again we’re looking at the last two years it might be too large of a sample but we can keep it I think it again some
Of these times I think it’s better to have the longest view but I think this is what we’re trying to do here until this story in terms of approach in these situation greens and rag in these situations uh so let’s do this we’ll add it we’ll skip Technically when went off
The te but we uh a green and red uh less than driver I like this okay now we’ll go back to uh off the te stuff uh I’ll close out less than dry again you got to be in the Fairway you got to be in the short stuff and even
Then it is hard when we saw people going less than driver looking at number of rounds people are actually uh you actually in the Fairway is pretty light here so uh I did some I did a combination of accuracy good drives gains distance from the edge of the
Fairway I think all of them are really relevant uh what was your lean here for uh for how to approach off the te I don’t know if if you want to do distance from Edge we did that a little last week which wasn’t bad um but I mean accuracy good drives good drives
Percentage because again that’s going to take into take into account like not not did they find the Fairway which is a binary stat yes no but did they find the you know did they find a spot where they were able to find the Green from there
And yeah Mike Green is good green is good in this case as far as you know we’re we’re not sorting by average right now we’re just looking at rank but it just ranks each player according to those uh whatever conditions we’re filtering from one to whatever 144 red red is
Rough red not good a guy like Aaron Ry who I like who I thought was a decent long shot last week but yeah with the if you spray it here you’re going to be in trouble because these uh these screens are hard to find from the Fairway
Yep uh you get familiar names here like Aaron Ry Bryce carnett playing some decent golf dou gim you know both looking at conjunction of driving accuracy edge of the Fairway good drives percentage I think these are all like to see the outliers see where someone’s you
Getting a bump for it because like you said like accuracy is really noisy um you could just be off and that’s a a yes no versus you’re barely off versus oh I’m I’m like look at Ryan Palmer right 50 in driving accuracy this is from the edge of the
Fairway 93 so when Palmer misses he is Wayward ah he is he’s in these uh these Pines and uh these big old trees so I think it’s an interesting stat so uh I’ll go good drives I think it that’s where it’s fun just to look at this you
Know not saying you have to take something and add it to a model it’s it’s good to to be able to look at Stats next to each other like that where yep hey your accuracy is this but your distance from the edge of the Fairway isn’t great so you know because some
Sometimes a guy can hit a ton of Fairways but it’s all you know just maybe a whatever smaller sample you’re looking at it’s like well he’s never center cut though it’s always near the edge it’s always just you know like hey this guy is maybe not actually that good
He’s just been lucky with you know another foot seven more of those drives would have been in The Fringe or the rough yeah Keith Mitchell kind of Pops there in that as well where uh you know accuracy down a little bit this year and uh when he’s missing he’s missing a
Little bit more than than normal so yeah it’s definitely like Andy said this is It’s called The Rabbit Hole for a reason very very easy to go down uh and just start looking at stuff doesn’t mean everything has to be added to the model or anything like that but yeah you can
I’ll show you something here in a little bit that I think is interesting that we might not model but I found it to be curious um all right anything else off the tea I added good drives No I think that’s fine okay again it’s up to you when you’re doing it
There’s again multiple ways to skin the cat as we say you can do whatever you’d like to do add as many as few as you like uh I’d be careful with adding too many of these filters we always touch on this I think it’s really important advice you start to really overfit and
Give yourself a I think a noisy data set that is not uh you’re gonna have to go back to like four or five years to get relevant data so I would do one or two of these at a time Max uh look at it see
If you want to add it and then go from there versus really starting to look at all right this is difficult and very difficult scoring conditions with an average Fields par 71 on poetry of greens like you’re you’re not going to give yourself anything that’s really
Relevant there if you do that you might as well just go to the courses and click copy last year um last thing I guess I don’t know what else you had but around the green uh was difficult last year I’ve seen that a couple times Ron wrote about
It I think it needs to be addressed uh when I’m putting this model together because they they tightened up the rough as far as how close it was to some of the greens the rough is nice and Tall yep and being in that I mean it was a sizable difference between the
Scrambling percentage from last year and in years’s past so it got a lot tougher around the green I think we do need to put something in for that I don’t I don’t know if we need to put a lot of splits into it it might just be you know around the
Green we could pull that menu up and see what we have for options yeah I mean you could just do scrambling From the Rough scrambling scrambling percentage from the rough because there’s going to be very little scrambling if at all it’s not going to be from the rough I’m trying to think if
There’s I need to do like the flyover video to see what we have for like aprons you know Fairway aprons and not but it’s if you’re scrambling it’s most likely going to be from the rough so Let’s uh let’s add that okay the ruffle ad uh we’re g to go back
I want to add some more approach stuff um I think that that’s kind of have it in a few different ways but I think you some more specific approach stuff could be useful I think we’re in kind of a spot too where um like we did with the 2024 data some
Like recent form stuff who’s actually really dialed in right now versus whose Baseline is really strong he mess around with the weights there but I think you know capturing again if you’re going to double count anywhere we always say double count approach because that’s you’re just anywhere that you’re G you’d
Rather have be a little bit heavy I think it is the the stickiest of the stats the most relevant typically from a weekend week out standpoints of success uh so what do you think mess around just add some Strokes G approach stuff or what do you what are you thinking here
Yeah greens and rag greens and rag going for the green whatever you want well we added the greens and rag let me see here pop this yeah we have greens and rag on less than driver so I’m going to add just straight up strok skin approach uh let’s look at
Let’s say 36 rounds so kind of a middle long-term SL recent form and I got a 16 round filter on there to kind of sus out any of the really small stuff so approach last 36 those are some familiar names and some names that I think belong there uh
Near at or near the top so uh putting want to do a little bit of Po triv or we skipping it we’re just like just straight up I mean you can put something in give it like 5% just just to drag some guys down yeah poet Tri
Putting poet Tri and we’ll go let’s see last two years last 36 rounds or so see if we can get a decent sample how many guys do we get there 85 of the guys okay that’s not too bad we’ll knock this in see if we get anything no still same sample that’s
Okay all right scoring anything you want to do on scoring power fives are obviously a pretty massive thing this week um you got to be able to make some hay there you want to do a scoring specifically or par five efficiency what are your what are your thoughts oh we
Got a lot in there already I don’t want to get two nuts but I mean you could do you can do par five efficiency you know birdies or you want uh average you’re going to be pretty close obviously some of the guys who are [Applause] yep man it’s always confirmation bias
For me it’s like all right where are the guys I’m looking for oh there they are his number’s small though there okay yeah see somebody who’s like who’s able to attack it with L is the two numbers aren’t going to be quite the same but let’s just go birdies are better let’s
Make it a true scoring yep not just because I I don’t want a guy who’s like hey I’m I’m pretty good at par five average I want a guy who’s pretty good at scoring on par five scoring yep all right cool uh that should be enough right anything else you
Want to add mash it together mash it together okay look at all that chapers yeah Andy and n batting and yeah if you’re if you’re listening obviously it’s harder to see but if you’re watching this is going to go in as an expert model if you want to
Scroll through this entire thing and look at it later um like we said the membership the the subscription you can go click on any of the expert models and look at the whole damn thing so if you want to view this later on um and zoom
In and sort around whatever you can to yeah um what was our anchor then just the T green at the top 20 25 where at we got a lot we got a lot to go around though yeah it’s okay I think you know these are let’s do 20 we’ll do I think
20 for both these last these tops two they’re they’re that’s a lot we have something coming soon that’ll have the’ll do the math for you and you’ll uh you know won’t have to do what we do have here on the show and make sure we don’t get it kicked back at us greens
And r on less than driver uh you think 10 Yeah the more granular the less I want to use it you know yeah whereas like you know just uh and and not only that but we’re going to be double counting a little bit because we have approach in
There as well yeah which I think is important to get a bump so we’re at 50 60 70 uh 90 perfect look at this which I’m I’m fine with it being high but yeah you have TD green you have ball striking uh good drive percentage approach and greens in regulation like
There is a lot of approach which yeah again is is fine yeah you can see you can save all as many as you possibly want uh working sure working on the back end to make sure that you can run old models you want to have rolling models for form or
Driving or approach or anything like that uh where should update with the current field and be able to run anything Evergreen which uh should be something that we have done here for you soon so let’s take a look um we’ll save and generate this and let’s see what it
Spits out is it gonna be feno is it gonna be Xander is it gonna be a surprise it’s gonna be Doug gim oh okay killer Keith oh my gosh I use Keith as the uh the thumbnail so good worked out oh sander obviously I mean Sanders’s 11,000
In DFS guys pretty he better be he better be near the top Keith Mitchell Brian Harmon Brian Haron obviously some great great long-term F can hang with the big boys Andy you can hang with the big boys shortterm and long-term form cam young not burning money on that Tony
Feno fifth Aaron Ry despite it all number six Doug gim who I mentioned Lucas Glover JT and Keegan Bradley are your top 10 from there it’s Dom and Vegas Grayson Sig uh multiple time winner here Sam Burns Jordan spe finally finally makes his uh presence known at
Number 15 then Davis Thomas AE minwu Le Ryan Moore and Canadian Nick Taylor not a bad top 20 obviously Xander being the top isn’t super surprising are any of these guys in your betting uh in your open bets right now uh they are there are some guys here I have
Multiple uh bets on guys here in the top 10 one absolutely not surprising whatsoever I get the chat borderline frustrated with me at this point uh because we cannot continue to go back back week after week to Keegan Bradley that’s what they say Andy they keep saying you can’t go back to Keegan
Bradley week after week but I keep clicking the button uh on Keegan Bradley so I want to show you something here and here’s part of here’s part of why um I have gone there a little bit and I thought this is really interesting thinking about how this course has
Changed and what matters here and again Keegan didn’t play last year but was tied for the lead after three rounds with Sam burn the year prior finished solo second so like he’s been here and he’s figured it out a little bit these are these approach shots are
Coming in from far and these greens are harder to hold I think there’s something to be said for Club head speed ball speed Apex height uh to be able to hold the greens here a little bit now that always I think regardless of what my sample size
Here is I can click on this and I’m gonna get keeg yeah he’s Apex height he can hit them high and holds the green that that works out really well uh I want to look at this here you look at years’s past let’s look at 2023 real
Quick before I share my other Beth um and let’s look at Apex height we’ll search some guys out ke again last year Keegan tops in the fields uh Sam Burns again this kind of correlates a little bit with some guys that have had s some success here got to be able to hold
These greens Davis Riley played well here in the past 13th um that again kind of checks out scrolling down scrolling down scrolling down when I get to Tony Fen now he’s 36th in Apex height Club had speed ball speed 21st 23rd no you know fine middle of the pack
You know maybe a little bit better than that if I go to 2024 it looks like there is a deliberate change that we’re doing here from a club head speed ball speed stuff from Phoenix now and this is correlated with some outstanding ball striking right it’s just been the putter the Putter’s been
Bad he is now inside the top 12 for all three of these metrics and you know Apex is higher that’s kind of correlated here with the ball speed and the club head speed so that I found to be very interesting uh digging into it a little
Bit here this week which I think is a little bit of a relevant stat again not something we’ve added to the model I didn’t add to my model but just as a a little bit of a tell I think there might be something there in terms of what we’re going to see
Needed for Success here in kind of the new design of of copperhead any thoughts I don’t know just sounds like you talking yourself into Keegan but I mean you’re right and F now yeah yeah because that’s what I did Andy I talk myself into Keegan and feno I I took 27
On feno uh he again he gained Strokes putting at Saw Grass was almost exclusively in one round but that’s better than anything else he been doing because it’s been a unmitigated a disaster also very curious to me that he was the only eligible top guy that
Skipped Bay Hill and put this on his schedule yeah and that like again I’m I am like grasping for straws a little bit I had already clicked it but then I was like wait a second why would he have done that um you know the wind horse
Stuff why would why would he do that why would he come here and not go to Bay Hill so uh 27 I thought was you know off Market at Caesars where everything else is mostly 20 seeing Chris has a 28 and change which is a pretty nice fown
Number yeah I’m a sucker for Keegan so those were those are my I guess top two but Keegan’s like 55 Andy like that’s not we’re not shooting at you know 30 on Keegan 55 I I played a 45 and it moved to 55 I took a little bit more so how
About you anyone at the top of our model or uh any bets near the top for you this week uh just Harmon Harmon is a guy there was 25s out there I just felt like it still a little disrespect f for a major winner and a guy who played as
Well as he did last week and you know could have won one of the biggest events on tour um so I think it’s 20 22 get him in the market I’d still bet it if you could find like 2250 something like that but I did take Harmon and that was
Really the only guy that interests me near the top like I get Sam Burns but I uh the price is awful short xanders price is awful short for a guy who can’t slam the door on a Friday JT has been better better but um I’m not interested
In JT and Jordy at those prices so you know anyone near the top it’s it’s gonna be harming for me uh I can’t get behind sunj right now um like feno again yeah but it was one round like if feno’s putting Yips continue at even like 50%
Of the the rate like it’s just he’s not gonna win events so wild remember this time last year he became an awesome putter he like that was heading into the Masters was like man this guy’s been putting like crazy because this has been a problem in years past so he’s been so
Hot and cold he’s very streaky and yeah I’m I am definitely like I’m weighing one really good round way too much uh the rest of it is so damn good this is kind of the old you know this is Junior Scotty basically right the ball striking
Is so damn good and if you can hang around field average and you can compete so I I like the 27 more than anything so I’m kind of with you everyone else is maybe a little too short it’s good to see Nick Taylor and Harmon priced properly like think Taylor was 170 last
Week for a little bit like be in the early odds that came out uh on the weekend prior when we were still at Bay Hill like Harmon at 150 like we maybe overcorrected to have these guys down you know sub30 or so but like I don’t know Nick Taylor Wins and competes
Fairly often now like it’s it’s he should not be 150 at any event so uh yeah the other the other guys here don’t really excite me just good like Doug gim is short like that they don’t excite me very much no Doug gim’s a big price guy I can bet at a
Bigger event to like top 10 yeah if if you and if you just strictly look at Lon D over the last couple years like Harmon’s numbers are sick like he’s he’s you know first second third in almost all the big uh all the big categories otherwise I just I went kind of bomb
Hunting after that Sam Ryder and math McNeely MAV you know maybe maybe the irons are gonna let me down here but you know current form is better than what we’ve seen uh short-term form is great the approach game has been a little rough but and maybe uh maybe we
Can find it here where he’s been he’s been pretty good off the te so if he’s great off the te maybe it just improves the irons because everything else is solid his around the green his short game is so so so good so he has that
Like the he can finish these holes he just has to find these greens we’ll see what we get there then ryer you know the the off the te numbers aren’t great but if you do start to um sort by lesson driver courses again like I did with Harmon he just
Happened to be in my favorit still there’s a big difference like he does take a big jump up so I took those guys you can get I mean you should be able to find damn near 100 on Ryder 80 to 100 he’s it’s all over the board mcne is
Gonna be 60 60 to 70 not bomb bombs but bomb is so I I took those guys that’s that’s the whole card so far yeah I don’t hate that um I I went uh I went off the Bo a little bit with uh with one guy um I just I think it’s
A it’s not for everyone I understand why people would have absolutely no interest in doing this um because it hasn’t been great let’s let’s get fun with let’s get fun with sample size like we got a guy that didn’t play in 2023 has not played very well in
2024 but we’re just looking here 2020 2021 2022 Daniel Burger third in the field Strokes G total Strokes g t green uh at it he’s 80 Andy I think he’s 83 at Chris uh Florida kid think about where we would play Daniel Burger in the past positional golf courses yeah places
Where he you know he’s not going to be punished for his you know like punitive distance stuff just Fairway finder nice long approach player can scramble K putt so uh look I get it you’re not going to look at anything in the 2024 profile and be like yeah I’m super stoked about
Daniel Burger hasn’t been great he’s missed three of the five cuts in three of the five events he’s played in so it’s it’s all just on the past um I’m showing you what that pass looks like but it’s 80 I feel like that that’s in baked into the number comparatively so
Uh Burger was another click for me uh and those are those are still out there so obviously it wasn’t something that like everyone was jumping on and being like hey we got to get burger and he’s been pretty terrible to be honest but yeah I like the number and yeah that was
A the other play for me there that I like so that’s it fun with the rabbit hole Burger Burger’s a nice one I don’t hate it fun question not even terribly gambling related although I have bet and we continue to bet on the champions tour uh dark Sage here curious what the
Champions tour will look like once Tiger Woods joins it I wonder if he ever plays a Champions event okay in that as well because of just uh the way his body has been treating him for the last you know 5 10 years I think maybe once he gets to a
Point where he says I can no longer play on the PGA tour it’s not because he can’t compete with those guys it’s because his body will not let him Golf and he may just never play an event in the Champions League you know he has his
Hand in all these projects the the the pop golf the TG what uh the you know the the team golf project he has Lory like I wonder if he’s just gonna you know go play a few major events as a you know I’ll go play the Masters if I think I
Can walk it here and there and that might just be it we might never see him play after he turns you know 50s something it is three rounds it’s a little different out there for those guys you know they uh they manage it a little bit different yeah but I’m I’m
With you I think there’s there’s also so much damn ego and pride that I would not be surprised that he’s just like yeah I’m going to let my friends kind of get some wins that I stole from them let them get some prize money I can make it
Elsewhere so I’ll be interested to see It’ll be amazing I mean I I can imagine there would be weeks where if he’s playing like they could pull numbers that would that would top PGA Tour events depending on the field that week so people love tiger man it is Tiger
He’s he said he would he would do it I just wonder if he can you know yeah they do let you cards they don’t have cards at the majors but they they will they let you have cards they have for like 15 years now yeah yeah it’d be it’d be
Interesting if I’m the champions tour I’m I’m changing the rules to whatever it takes to get him to come play th% sure so absolutely all right well if you yeah if you watched on the YouTube hit us with a thumbs up if you didn’t um
Encourage you to join us if you you know struggled a little bit by not being able to see the actual you know the modeling we did on screen if you have any questions like I said you can DM us at BS Spurs golf on Twitter at Andy msfw Ry
Nunin at pgas Spitz 101 bsur golf.com is going to have some articles and links right there to you know show you what the the price plans are if you did want to take advantage of that do some of your own modeling or check out the expert models that are up on the site
From Nan from us from Ron from Andy lack from uh you know veny like everybody everybody’s got their uh expert models up for the week that you can take a look at right now so for me for Nan for everyone here we’ll catch you next week for the Texas Children’s Houston open in
Houston think Scotty’s gonna be there maybe yeah
1 Comment
No Scottie this week, should be easy