Valspar Championship | Fantasy Golf Preview & Picks, Sleepers, Data – DFS Golf & DraftKings

The TOUR heads to the Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort and Golf Club in Palm Harbor, Florida for the Valspar Championship. Rick uses data to breakdown the courses, field and much more!

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SHOW INDEX
0:00 Intro
2:20 Course Preview
6:28 10K Range
12:17 9K Range
16:35 8K Range
22:00 7K Range
24:15 6K Range
27:27 Custom Model
30:51 Outro
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What’s up guys Rick here with your preview for this week’s valpar Championship a very exciting week not only because we had a great week last week but we are just going to continue to roll on but also not sure if youve heard March Madness is going on uh if

You have already noticed this I apologize but my annual March Madness video how to create the optimal bracket is now live on YouTube uh for whatever reason this has gotten quite popular over the last couple years I don’t know anything about basketball but I I do my

Best to try to solve it with with math and data you can check that out it’ be much appreciated um it’s a lot of fun I’ve got some new Tools in there it’s pretty cool the thing that you might be more interested in because of March Madness uh from what I understand survi

Like Survivor pools have gotten very popular in a similar way to oneandone uh NCAA Survivor pools have gotten popular the way it works for March Madness is you pick one team every day if that team wins you advance until there’s a winner makes a lot of

Sense I love it so what I did is I partnered with Splash on this we created a Survivor contest it’s $30 to enter you can enter you can enter a bunch I think but for every entry you get a free entry into next week’s Houston open tear

Contest okay so then next week’s contest is filled with it’s a free roll and you get entries based on the Survivor you get uh you know the winner gets a year subscription to rickun good.com 50 bucks and splash swag you know two through 10 get monthly subscriptions to rickun

Good.com top 100 get weekly subscriptions to rickun good.com so um partner with Splash to set this up a little bit of a nice incentive if you want to play in the surviv you get access to the free roll the Houston open free roll for next week so

I thought that was a pretty cool way to do it but from what I understand these Survivor contests are insanely fun and I haven’t played in one before but I’m I’m looking forward to it okay um let us commence the valpar championship this is my website rickun

Good.com it is a giant database for Fantasy Golf and golf betting this is the inisbrook resort the copper head course the snake pit that’ll get you uh most of the holes if not all but two or three of the holes out here play overp par um and even the par five fifth hole

Is not really a gimme the par five 11th is not really a gimme the fifth hole played close to even par last year um number 11 played a tenth of a stroke under par but the other the other two par fivs were the only other holes that

Played under par so that’s that’s where you are making your hay if you look at at the correlated key stats you know last week we had such a strong off the tea correlation I think that ended up working out right uh let’s think Xander Scotty wendam Brian Harmon all very good

Off the tea in different ways but all very good off the tea this week is a strong approach week correlation so there were only six other courses in which uh Strokes gained approach more correlates to success than here at the inisbrook course the other thing to to

Point out is if so those are the those are the the main stats The Strokes gain stats the the the really really good ones scrambling is also highly ranked in a couple of different ways and I think that that does start to pass the sniff

Test a little bit so to me this says that there’s two is kind of ways to separate yourself based on uh this correlation model you either are better than the field on approach or uh and because because you need to be better than the Fe okay wait let me

Start over it’s hard to hit greens it’s hard to give yourself a lot of looks okay so if you are great on approach that is one path to separating yourself because you are not necessarily hitting a lot of greens or you’re putting yourself in tricky positions when you

Are missing the greens another way to separate self is via the scrambling we see this a little bit don’t quote me on this but I feel like Tory Pines is in that way where it’s approach play or scrambling right I I feel like that’s a a model that we’ve seen before um Justin

Thomas here gets the best adjusted fit over the last 36 rounds Nick Taylor Doug gim Victor hin and Henrik norlander round out the top five there if you look at why so why is approach play so strongly correlated to success well it’s another week and we’ve had a handful of

These in a row it feels like where the proximity buckets where you’re hitting your second shot from or where you’re hitting your approaches from skews much farther than a lot of tour averages right 175 to 200 over tour average 200 plus over tour average 150 to 175

Getting close and then it’s almost I mean this is like a perfect it’s a perfect graph right there’s not a lot of shots from inside 100 yards slightly more from 100 to 125 slightly more from 125 to 150 a little bit more from you know so on and so forth all the way

Until you get to the farthest uh proximity bucket so it it makes a lot of sense when you are uh looking at the approach numbers and so does this you know how many birdie opportunities whether they are made or not are coming from 4 to8 feet less than 11%

Significantly below tour average um the rest of the proximity buckets are are close enough to tour average right but that this all of this adds up to say not a lot of guys are hitting it close to the pin or at least compared to tour average which makes a lot of sense

Considering where we’re coming from so um yeah I I get it that we’ve passed like three different Sni sniff tests on why approach play should be super relevant and then also uh scrambling I suppose if we want to go down that route when we get to the custom model we will

Uh dive into both of those things pretty heavily here’s the cheat sheet on rickun good.com four golfers over $10,000 and I find them all fascinating you know Xander shle is the most expensive at 112 are we going back to Xander can we trust Xander he’s played here once he finished

12 like what’s the upside I I almost worry his game’s too well-rounded for this golf course you know I think that you can get away with a couple of deficiencies if you’re really good in a couple of aspects Xander uh as we’ve talked about infinite number of times is

Is much more well-rounded the next three here Burns Thomas Jordan spe I’m like Mega braining this trying to figure out what to do my hunch is I’m going to pull this up my hunch is that Sam Burns has played better in the last two weeks than his finishing positions are going to

Indicate that’s my hunch so API he was great for three rounds and then coughed it up on Sunday when he started with the triple and then made another triple later let’s see what he did the players almost identical actually I got off to a slow start on on

Thursday but then he rallies to make the cut has a great round on Friday goes nuclear on Saturday and then punts it away on Sunday again so I’ll give him five great rounds in his last eight with two miserable rounds and one below average round let’s go back a

Little bit farther than that he was great at Riv for three out of four days he was great in Phoenix for 4 days he was pretty darn good at Pebble Beach for 3 Days wow yeah he’s got a little he’s got a little Sunday scaries it looks like uh

American Express he was great for three days and coughed up nearly two strokes on Sunday man I just I might be just you know the cartoon character stepping on a rake and smacking himself in the face right that that might be me but the this he has

Played high-end golf a lot in 2024 hasn’t always put hasn’t always put four rounds together and when it’s gone sideways it’s gone very sideways I don’t even need to alert you although I will I will show you um his history here is is is second and none right 12th 30th win

Win Sixth and that’s from farther out to most recent so the last three are win-win or our sixth win-win special special stuff so I I will be interested to see what people do with him obviously Elite history but the two kind of disappointing finishes lately in big time events uh will people

Just go down to JT will people go down to Jordan Speed we’ll find out 3M Eastern Time Rick R good YouTube channel for the live chat Justin Thomas I am also a sucker for right I mean I’ve I’ve been very vocal about that I am just so disappointed with what

Did at the players and maybe I shouldn’t be right this this was a possible outcome Justin Thomas to me if you know without looking at anything I would say that Justin Thomas is basically an average driver of the golf ball an elite second shot player he has a great around

The green Game and his putter is all over the place so if we know that about him looking at his stat profile from last week he loses a stroke off the T that’s disappointing but well within his range of outcomes he is like the best approach player through

The first two rounds he gains 4.6 Strokes on approach I will actually um I guess I could actually just look that up right and just see so let’s do this let’s do rounds one and two from last week’s players and then we’ll do every everybody who was in the field Strokes gained

Approach um okay so hogi was one cam young Nick Taylor Ryan Moore Mark hubard than Justin Thomas so Justin Thomas was better than Scotty uh Xander he’s better than everybody right besides those five guys that I named his around the green play was disappointing because he’s usually much

Better around the green he lost a stroke there and he lost three Strokes with the putter which is like well within his range of outcomes so so I’ve got he was a little bit disappointing off the tea and a little bit dis Corning around the

Green and the rest of that was just just very much very much within his within his outcomes um look at his history here 10th last year third 13th God I mean I I guess it comes down to which like maybe I don’t care as much which

Which one of these guys is going to be less owned is it Sam Burns or is it Justin Thomas and I’ll just play that one maybe that’s maybe that’s the way to do this but I’m a sucker for both Jordan spe we’re goingon to have to Deep dive

Jordan spe here you know I don’t want to I don’t we’re not not necessarily going to go through every single golfer in the field but when you’re Jordan spe and you’ve been all over the yard and you’ve got three straight uh top 13s at this event we got to talk about

It losing two and a half Strokes on approach uh last week but all of that came in round one lost around the green didn’t dve oh they drove it okay which is uh nice to see I have no idea I’d be lying to you if I said I had any feel

For Jordan be right now the game seems to be a little bit erratic no surprise this is a really good spot for him I do not know what to do with him I will probably stick with Burns and Thomas invest in those guys who I think I have

A little bit of a better feel on and see which direction uh the rest of the industry goes on on those two the 9k range has at least a few interesting bounceback opportunities we’ll start with Cam young he’s $9,600 he’s never played here before and I wish he I wish

He had because what he’s doing on the greens right now is is pitiful he’s he lost nine Strokes putting over the course of the last uh last two uh events but he gained over nine basically N9 and a half ball striking I mean this is special and these are

Not super out of character performances for for cam young what I was kind of hoping to see was um you know okay he struggled recently but maybe he putts really well at the Copper Head course that we’re not going to get an opportunity to see that so I think there

Is a level of risk here where he gains eight Strokes ball striking and gives you know or maybe not that many four and four or something like that and gives it back on the putting surface so I I am worried about that but not worried about

The fire power I think in general he is still trending upwards uh to start 2024 than he than he was in 2023 the one that feels even a little bit better and almost more poised for a a breakout is is Tony F now so he is starting to put

It together he did not drive it well at TPC sass which is very rare continues to put uh a good approach number out there and then I love that he’s cleaned up the short game we talked I don’t know if we talked about this on Wednesday or Monday

Of last week it does look like he has made an adjustment with his putter it looks different the toe looks lower it is starting to show up in his metrics um he is longterm very good for this field right you know when you just start looking at everybody’s career everybody’s 200

Rounds or whatever that might be he’s one of the top top players and actually if you go to the trends tool he is right on his 100 round Baseline right now okay so he has gotten back to that so the way this tool works is it looks at any

Number of rounds and then Compares it to the golfers 100 round Baseline and Tony fow in the last 36 is now 0.1 better than his 100 round Baseline so he is back to to being himself now what I would like to see is that he plays better than his Baseline right he

Starts to gain Strokes to himself even without that this field is not super strong there are some good names here but you’ve got like you know Jordan Speed Strokes gain Trend numbers the best in the field 1.35 and that’s a little iffy Justin Thomas is I mean

There’s not like a Runway best player in this field in my opinion I think there’s seven or eight guys who have a have a really good chance of of of winning this there’s not one guy and I think Phoenix now um if we’re going up and to the

Right I think you know I think fow is is one of those guys I’m so fascinated to see what Nick Taylor does this week I mean has he he has not slowed down in 2024 you know the win couple of really good finishes at signature event so his

Last three were Riv bahill sass 39th 12th 26 ball just approach yes sir um let’s look at his uh proximities so those those like 175 to 200 where a lot of shots come from he’s 50 first on tour much better than that in this field gets

A little bit worse from over 200 yards but not entirely 200 225 he’s 433 two 225 to 250 he’s 47th it’s admittedly one of the problems with the proximity buckets but uh you get their idea he’s a he’s a he’s a very good um very good second shot player I also want to

See yeah he’s a very good Scrambler as well I bet you when we do and he’s a good putter I bet you when we when we do the model I bet you Nick Taylor shows up in a in a pretty significant way because even if we throw

In some valpar some inisbrook uh course history he was 10th last year he has missed his fair share of cuts he was 70th year before that he gained throughout the bag in in 2023 I mean he’s a much better player now than he was in any of these other

Starts even even last year he’s such a much better player he might win this thing I don’t know maybe you don’t win twice in in four or five starts but you got to love the way he sets up for this place the 8K range and Doug gim rolling

On he’s not GNA be a secret anymore right we’ve had we’ve had a bunch of weeks of this and then he goes and has uh one of the best shots of the week and that’s just a really public loud top 20 which is now his fifth straight top 20

Whatever Doug gim figured out and 2024 I would love to know the putty metrics are the best of his career let’s let’s see if we can find this here Doug gim his last what would that be uh one two three four so five events his last

20 rounds I bet you his last 20 rounds are some of the best in the field and let’s see what we can let’s see what we can find here um okay yeah so he is putting nearly a quarter stroke or nearly two10 of a stroke per round

Better than his 100 round Baseline in the last 20 I want to also look at the power rankings for the last 20 rounds I bet you gim is up here it’s got to be right I mean I guess they’re only they’re all top 20s but yeah okay so um

Ricky Castillo who is I think is a corn fairy guy but you get Xander and then it’s Doug gim right that’s one two Doug gim’s getting 1.8 Strokes per round over his last 20 it’s it’s great it’s great stuff I’m happy for him Maverick mcne rolls

On now he’s 8100 we have spent a lot of time talking about MAV mavi mcney this year I will not rehash all of it I am definitely aware of how he did it last week which was an unsustainable eight Strokes gained around the green which is probably let’s let’s look this up

Probably one of the best around the green weeks of the year on the PGA tour let’s find out here just to be just to put this into perspective yeah I think it’s going to be it’s going to take a second to load because it’s a lot of data yeah it is so

791 is the best around the green week of the year by any player on the PGA tour Sheffer had a seven we and Riviera earlier this year this might be the best around the green week in the last two years Aaron Ry got him in Houston but I

I we’re talking about a very high-end unsustainable amount of Strokes gained around the green the good news is even if that regresses uh he is still a very good short game player which we know is important here the problem that we’re going to have are these second shots so

What’s what’s more likely is he going to be able to to gain a little bit to the field on approach or at least not be as bad to make up for the fact that we’re almost certainly going to get get a regression around the green but throwing

The fact that this is a much weaker field than he saw last week and even with uh you know like I mean he has he he’s done it he’s done it this year gained two and a half Strokes on approaching in Phoenix this year and even without that he finished 13th in

Mexico losing Two Strokes off on approach so he is capable of having good finishes without an elite a good ball striking week uh he is just what was I going to say oh what I was going to say is he’s also not priced in a way where you need him to win the

Golf tournament $8,100 if he finishes ninth I think you’d be pretty thrilled with that cautiously optimistic on Aaron Ry cautiously optimistic on Keegan Bradley I think that Keegan is just too too good for this field to be $8,600 but but maybe the guy whose Time Has Come is Christian

Bazen hope it might be time okay so we’ve docu Meed this before starting in 2024 he has got a new coach I God I cannot remember who he’s working with KOMO or Sean Foley or I can’t remember apologies but they uh Jeff Smith actually I think again sorry I don’t

Remember he has turned into a very very good iron player so basically the entirety of 2024 he’s been a big positive including gaining seven strokes on Approach at the Players Championship pretty darn good field and combines that with an already high-end putting game take a look at this profile this is

The profile of a guy who has made a significant change and is on the verge of something special look at his metrics from even the long he is better compared to his peers from longer approach shots than he is from some of the shorter approach shots he is not a great

Scrambler because around the green numbers aren’t great but he is a phenomenal putter so he kind of splits the difference there I will probably bet Chris John baz and hope to win this week I I just think this is a very confident player who’s got a

Skill set for this golf course that has not like he just hasn’t done it yet and you haven’t you don’t do it until you have that’s kind of how this all works the 7K range does honestly little to excite me some of these guys who played last week didn’t play particularly well

You could almost argue missing the cut might have been better than kind of grueling through the PLAYERS Championship I don’t know but I don’t see a lot here um Taylor Montgomery was was good last week but I will continue to worry that he’s a bit riing on the

Putter uh I think thorb olison is interesting from the perspective that I don’t I don’t know if anybody knows what to do with with him his his uh salary has bounced around so much over over the year um and since we’ve seen him it’s like I I I don’t know if anybody knows

What to do with him and he is you know if you go back to his his um I mean I’ve got all the data from from the DP World Tour as well very good second shot player and actually very good from Fairway through green he just might be

The mispriced guy in here he’s more of an unknown entity than a lot of these other guys are Sam ryers made a ton of birdies uh Sam Ryder made a ton of birdies last week still finished 16th I don’t know if that’s super encouraging or not Adam shank finished 19th and has

Had a couple of good finishes here but hasn’t really been able to put that together uh Daniel burer didn’t play last week that might be good but is he let’s let’s let’s look at Burger because if you give him the last 200 rounds he’s probably a top seven player in the

Field missed the cut in Puerto Rico that’s pretty disappointing one bad rounds missed the cut at uh cognizant again one bad round Phoenix was really good one bad round Farmers to bad round that was the original comeback so if anybody has any takes or opinions on Daniel Berger I’m I’m interested in

Hearing all of it has he played vbar before yeah but not since 2017 so this is like a blank slate I’d almost like that though I would almost take I I don’t think I want the guys that I know a lot about in this range I’m not really

Excited about the guys that I don’t know anything about or that we can go with small sample sizes on thorbjorn Burger are pro are more exciting than the guys that we actually know the 6K range uh Stanger Jimmy Stanger drove it well last week he’s got three straight top 40s I

Do worry that uh you know places that ask him to drive it well are better spots for him second shot I would like to see him do a little bit better there the I I’m willing to give Andrew Novak one more crack at this right so we saw those

Three straight top 10 and then he misses the cut the PLAYERS Championship am I gonna am i g to penalize him significantly for that I think the answer should be should be no I don’t like what I saw he lost five and a half Strokes ball striking but that is

Probably his worst ball striking performance yeah one of his oh look at this since the players championship last year where he also lost five and a half Strokes on ball striking maybe that just doesn’t fit his eye I think I can I think I can give him

A break on that considering he was as good as he was gaining 12 Strokes on approach in his in his 12 rounds prior to that so we got to give Novak one more crack here and then we’ll assess later has he played the Val bar he has

Finished 27th here last year missed the cut the prior year so we we we’ve got to give him I believe one more crack there I want to pull up Sheamus power Sheamus power might be sneakily sneakily go going in the right direction wow the bottom was very was

Very low don’t don’t get me wrong the bottom was very low he gain Strokes on approaching two straight which is usually a good sign for him when he gets it going the Putter’s been it has been a putter he’s got a couple of top 40s I

Want I want to be in on this maybe we’re a little early maybe we’re a little early on on Sheamus Matthew n Smith was Andrew Novak before Andrew Novak right remember when n Smith rattled off you know three or four really great finishes in a row and then

He couldn’t keep it going and then three or four really good ones in a row and there was a time Matthew neith was a top 10 approach uh top 25 approach player on the PGA tour maybe it was 20 it might have been 2022 at this point but

Starting to see improvements on approach finished 26 at the play last week gaining uh he gained Strokes on in ball striking in the first three rounds he gave up a little bit on in in round four very good finish for him and now he gets a lot of confidence and goes

To a place where he’s finished third and 21st and I think his game is sharpening I do not think it is sharp I think it is sharpening remember he was NOA uh Novak before Novak and I cannot imagine anybody’s interested in playing Matthew n Smith you’re probably going to get a

Really good really good number on him there so here’s Ricky Castillo’s um stat profile I wanted to see why he was popping up all over the place his 2024 has been good T20 T5 7th 13th and fifth in his last five all of those are corn fairy

Events that’s pretty good I I don’t know I don’t know anything else about his game but he’s popping up on all the metrics because of those those corn fairy runs I want to run a mod here see what happens so rickun good.com custom model let me zoom in a little bit so you

Guys can see this a little bit better well let me zoom out so I can access the uh digits over here okay so let’s address the Ricky Castillo the like thoron olison the all that stuff and and do a baseline of weighted Strokes gained total over the last 36

Rounds and we will put 25 there just start us off with a baseline okay now we need approach play so we are going to do strokes gained approach for 15 but I’m also going to do uh one uh 10 on what I do 15 so do 20

That would be 35 now let’s do eight on 175 to 200 and eight on 200 to 225 we are also going to do some scrambling for 20 right it’s very highly correlated we don’t get that one a lot we’re going to do a little bit of course

History for inis Brook we’re going to put 10 on maybe 15 it’s kind of sticky so we’ve got nine left we’ll put our last nine on birdies are better H Let’s do let’s do Boogie avoidance Just for kicks right Let’s do let’s let’s do it for kicks number one golfer

Is Xander scha Justin Thomas two Brian Harmon three Eric call for look at this Doug gim five dougless gim has just cracked the top five of a Monday model love it Sam Burns six there he is Nick Taylor seven and there he is Christian bazen

Hot 8 I understand it’s a little bit of a self-fulfilling prophecy I saw the stats that have correlated to success I looked for golfers that found those then I plugged those in and those golfers popped up so like I I get it but here we are Grayson Sig and oet 9 and 10

Fenal 11 Joel Damon yeah playing a little bit better he’s $6,800 he’s up to 14th Novak 19th at 6700 Ben Griffin up there as well spe all the way down to 21st at 10,200 that’s very interesting that’s in that’s funny uh thorb olison 28th 7600 bucks just trying to see for

Some discrepancies here okay let me save this we’ll we’ll revisit this on um on Wednesday this is called 2024 valpar model Monday I don’t I don’t know why I’m typing in model it’s the only thing I can save here um okay so with that I will see you guys on Wednesday if

You want to go watch the March Madness video it is out right now if you want to join in the NCAA Survivor which I think is great and get into the Houston open free roll for next week that is a aable to you all these links are in the

Description also there is for this week uh there is a a tiers contest for for this week right here the guys at Splash have been guaranteeing these for us which is great so it’s going to have 36 buck $3600 in the prize pool not $36 $3600 $20 entry pick a golfer from six

Tiers all good fun very busy week I appreciate you guys sticking with me uh two videos on a Monday very rare but happens about once a year uh all right thank you so much best of luck I’ll talk to you guys Soon