THE PLAYERS Championship | PGA Picks | Fantasy Golf Picks | Pro vs Pro

Alex Blickle and Justin Bates are back to breakdown the betting slate for THE PLAYERS Championship 2024. They have long-shot PGA Picks, TPC Sawgrass course fit picks, One and Done Picks, and more! Check out all of their picks and thoughts on the latest PGA Tour news on this episode of Pro vs Pro.

#theplayers #FantasyGolf #pgatour

Timecodes

0:00 – Intro
0:58 – TPC Sawgrass Course Fit
5:09 – Russell Henley
8:41 – Adam Scott
10:39 – Driving Accuracy
15:15 – Scottie Scheffler
18:24 – Early-Late Split
25:30 – Wyndham Comments
29:30 – Best Bets and DFS Plays

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What’s going on everybody welcome back to Prov Pro players championship week we have made it should be a fantastic week awesome golf course and golf world I don’t know man I think it’s I think it’s getting back to that just like Ultimate Buzz around the sport and and lots of

People are tuning in it’s it’s a fun time right now yeah I saw a bunch of people especially on Twitter that are hating on is this still the fifth best field in golf which I I mean there’s an argument to say it’s not I mean no ROM a

Auto diminishes the field but in general this is just always such a good test and um this was the coming to to light from Min wo last week we got or last year where we got to see all his Talent come to the Forefront so we’re going to try

To find another player like that this year that maybe uh we don’t know as much about yeah no pressure there just just have to have to you know bounce back and uh and repeat your performance from a year ago when you had that incredible call and then we’ll leave we’ll talk

About some potential slate breakers on the DFS side of things this week some long shots in the betting world where I want to start is in the course fit section the course fit Department I guess you could say and this is one of the most unique course fit models of the

Entire season it’s also one of the strongest I did a a major thread a year ago on this event because when you tune into analysis around the industry when it comes to the PLAYERS Championship you hear so much about the randomness of this event and how hard it is to predict

What’s going to happen and so my thread last year focused on how there’s a difference between the variance of an event and how well we can predict the most likely outcome for each player and it turns out that this is actually one of the events where you can do that as

Well as any other maybe even better than any other where you can really really hon in on exactly what skills sets translate to success at this golf course and it turns out it’s all about accuracy off the tea our stroke scheme driving accuracy metric is 98% more predictive

Than usual here every other category is pretty much right around zero right around uh what you typically see on a PGH or golf course so all about that strok skin driving accuracy metric which I think there are two things to that number one it’s just at this golf course

At most Peak die golf courses you have to put the ball in play and give yourself a reasonable chance on your second shot that’s all really intuitive I think the less intuitive part here is that there’s a major signal on just your ability to game plan your way around a

Golf course to correctly identify okay on this t-shot this side is the bad miss this side is the good miss and continuously even take like extra conservative lines but play aggressively to those lines knowing that this way I can make a confident golf swing if I

Miss it’s not going to be a disaster in the water where I’m suddenly staring at Double bogy but instead it’s going to be I still have a fighting chance for par or maybe even on the par fives a Fighting Chance you know get up and down

From 100 yards to make birdie and I’m no longer hunting uh or staring those huge huge numbers right in the face yeah and I think it shows by look at the guys that have won this event in the past right we’ve got a lot of veterans that

Kind of came out of nowhere to win that we you know that kind of know his plotters web Simpson David Toms I mean there’s a lot of guys if you just look back um until I mean the only you know you might might kind of change that with

A few winners you know Sheffer obviously just out just better ball Striker than everybody else was able to get around there and maybe even SE Woos but you know a lot of the guys that have won here they’re just they’re methodical they think their way

Around um and most of them were in good form I mean like I saw somebody was saying webon web Simpson when he won he was 100 to1 that’s unbelievable to me because he was playing really good golf at that time and obviously I wasn’t you know as as deep into the the fantasy

Golf and betting as I as I am now so I don’t really remember exactly the form but I know he was playing really good golf at that time so yeah plotters that are in good form that are you know are not afraid of a challenge I think that’s who who we

See at the top of the leaderboard this is one of the weeks on tour where we see the most like Trends analysis around the IND indry where it’s you know nine of the last 10 winners have done this 19 of the last 20 winners have done that and I

I’m always very hesitant to look at Trends um but I I think there are two really interesting ones to talk about and the first one is just this idea that you have to come in with really good form at the Players Championship to do well I would modify that a little bit

The first thing is when you look at who the best golfers in the world are most of them come into an event playing well it’s like the they’re good golfers so they should be playing well they’re probably going to play well again this week it’s it’s rare that you see someone

Play poorly coming into the players and then do really well on the players not because there’s some like hidden magical power about this golf course that forces you to have come in playing well or you can’t play well that week it’s just a selection buas thing it’s just there are

More good golfers playing well coming in and those guys are the ones who are then the most likely to play well that week so the way that I would modify this is if you think that something extra important about being in good form look for the guys who have been in form

Despite being not great fits for golf courses coming in so we’ve had a run of golf courses lately where driving distance has been super important it’s been the most important factor for Success so if someone is has been playing well over the last month without

A ton of distance now they get to a course where accuracy suddenly matters more than usual off the tea distance is about 15% less predict I than usual here okay that’s the guy who suddenly has a chance to really Vault himself up the leader boards more so than he has lately

And maybe people will be down off of that even though it fits right into The Narrative of looking for guys who are playing really well compared to the Baseline coming in sounds like you’re talking about Russell Henley like I really feel like that whole Spiel right there was just about Russell Henley

There’s a different guy we’ll get to him in slate Breakers that that I’m talking about there but you’re per you’re absolutely right Henley completely fits that bill as well coming off a phenomenal week Henley also by the way like this is far from the first time

This past week at beill I should say it’s far from the first time that he’s competed at a course or contended at a course where distance can be so much more predictive than usual because he just has a phenomenal week on and around the greens we saw it at Augusta last

Year as well he just has those weeks where he can’t get himself in trouble because he’s so damn good on and around the greens at times and with his irons as well that just like you can put me in any position off the te I’m gonna find a

Way to make par anyway yeah I just I like Russell Henley a lot this week because I think he fits the bill you know they’ll plot it around the golf course and he’s smart hits it straight and he’s playing good at at courses that haven’t fit him it’s just like when you

Went through all of that that’s just the first person that kind of came to my mind I I love that too because he’s he’s at 1.13 expected tro skan in our model that’s fifth in this field so at $8,600 on DraftKings you get the guy who is Fifth and expected Strokes gained that’s

Going to pop pretty well I don’t think he’s going to be super popular it’s it’s tough to say because you know at this point in the week the ownership projections are are a very loose shell of what I think we’re going to see there are a lot of players who have a very

Wide range of outcomes still so it’s it’s really going to depend on okay what is sentiment around this player so for example like Jake naap and Adam Scott are two guys who have had really good form over the last month and a half or so so people are could easily want to

Play them but they’re also coming off their worst event in quite some time so until we start to hear more people talking about this event throughout the week until we see articles come out from other sites and this and that and see where they’re projected on other sites it’s really difficult to determine

Whether it’s the form over the past month and a half that’s going to drive their ownership or last week’s disappointing performance is going to drive their ownership there are a handful of guys like that Scot and and Napp are the two who really come to the

For but there are a number of others where really anything could go they could be 5% own they could be 20% own it just matters how people are talking about them at the start of the week well that and that’s I’m glad you brought up Adam Scott because obviously big

Disappointment for us last week of the way he played um being our one and done selection but that being said like it kind of allows me to feel like maybe I get a him at a little bit lower ownership this week of a guy that can compete here right he

Kind of fits the bill of everything we’re saying Plus has the ability to hit it far when he needs to as well so that he’s a really really good point to person to bring up right here I myself will have him definitely part of my player pool I think that it’s a great

Bounceback opportunity and I think sometimes he he may be looking ahead a little bit too to this week so um you know I don’t know how true that is but um yeah hopefully sub 10% ownership um I’ll be pretty happy with him yeah if he comes in sub 10 there’s

Even a chance I’ll have him my single entries regardless I think I’ll be overweight in mme I wish however that last week’s disappointing performance was a result of now I mean it was he was fine with the approach play he was even fine off the te he was bad around the greens and

He was terrible putting I I don’t know if you were following his his round um on Thursday but through like five holes he could have been three under and instead I think he was either one or two over it was just disastrous he he kept missing four-footers and you don’t see

That very often from him so because of that you can kind of toss it out the window however he started the year driving the ball extremely accurately and and actually he finished the end of last season doing the same where it was like man if Adam Scott who has gained

Distance with his age can now get back to being one of the more accurate guys off the tea in the world like there’s almost no ceiling uh for him just for how much better he can get he can return to the old Adam Scott even in terms of

His his ability to contend Fields like this that accuracy off the te has tapered off a bit and remember we’ve been at golf courses where distance matters so much more than accuracy so maybe there’s something there where he was just really trying to sell out for that distance but he’s been so

Inaccurate in the last few events that he even has lost some of his distance Advantage because to hit the ball far you kind of have to hit Fairways and get that extra 30 yards a run out he’s missing so many Fairways that he’s not getting run out and therefore you know

You look at his pure distance numbers and they’re not even that great so I I wish that his driving form had been better last week where because he kind of tapered off and the driving is part of that I am now a little bit hesitant to use him particularly if he ends up

Popular this week yeah um so the just a little backstory of where the men W Le call K call came from last year’s is and and Men Lee did this last week as well and I don’t know if you noticed it what the short Par Four early that was

Playing overp par and everybody was laying up four maybe some I think number four somewhere in that area but everybody was laying it up to like the 170 to 180 range and they were uh I mean the hole was playing half a shot over par men Wu just gets up there driver and

Busts it down the middle has 50 yards flip wedge in like just you tell me which side of that you want obviously like so that that’s kind of I think that if we get the old Adam Scott here I think it’ll allow him to hit driver where other people aren’t hitting driver

To the same Collective areas um you know I think that’s a big deal of where the talent of somebody that can hit it long and far they’re just playing so good they can just rip driver that’s also true of guys this week who are really accurate off the tea

Like we saw that from Scotty last year there are a number of holes where guys say oh man it’s so important to hit the Fairway here that I need to hit a three iron or a hybrid off the te and scy says I can just hit driver and hit the

Fairway that all of a sudden turns a very difficult hole where most of the field is struggling to make par into a flip wedge like you said and and a scoring opportunity Sheffer fits that bill seiw Kim is somebody who really fits that bill you you saw on Twitter I

Put out a question yesterday of who do people think is the third best player in the world right now in terms of our Strokes gain driving accuracy metric Sheffer is first Rory is second again when you think of Rory you think of these towering bombs off the te the

Reason why he’s so incredible off the is because he pairs that power with immense accuracy second best in the world in driving accuracy SEIU Kim is third and that gives seuk Kim also the license to take driver on holes where others aren’t um we will certainly see that again this

Week he’s always done it at the players and now he comes in with the best driving accuracy form that he’s probably ever had coming into the week uh so very exciting to see the way he tries to attack this golf course where is your uh

Kind of sentiment on SEI wo this week um obviously he has a chance to be one of the best in my in the world I think if he could ever I mean his talent level is is really really high I I think I like him because I think he’s he

Goes out there and plays to win like if he finishes 10th or 25th or 50th he doesn’t care like he wants to win and he wants to compete so um but I think that’s why he’s pretty volatile and I think that’s kind of why we like him so

Much right is we’re always you know which which side are we going to get which attitude are we going to get how’s he going to handle every situation you know um obviously I I’ll have him in my single entry this week I think that he he’s the guy that could kind of break

The Slate for you as far as that goes he’s also a guy who’s volatile because his putting can be so volatile and actually lately it’s not a volatility issue with the putter it’s just a consistent struggle with the putter we have his projected stroke scheme putting to this field at negative point4 per

Round for some context Fen now we know how bad fow has been on the greens this year he’s at negative 39 so uh sewo has the second worst uh third worst projected putting of the week even Scotty’s only at like a quarter of a stroke projected to be lost

Per week or per round I should say so I think that’s my biggest hangout with sew was just like when you when you are looking for that c for that you need the chance of him gaining half a stroke or a full stroke per round on the greens

Kind of like the flip that we saw with Scotty last week I don’t see a reason to think that SEIU can make that flipflop the way that Scotty did well hopefully he goes back to the long putter which I know he’s got with him so if he goes

Back to the long putter I think that we might be able to get that that flip that you’re talking about right there and speaking of Scotty like I think I don’t think that I’ll be more frustrated by the lack of just believing what we talk

About as much as I am with Scotty last week like we’ve said it for the entire year every time we brought up his name just make a change just do something different what does he do he does something different he wins by five maybe not with Scotty it wasn’t just

That he made a change it was like we we had talked a number of times about what we would like to see from Scotty the changes we would like to see him make number one was becoming more upright he lengthened the putter to be more upright

And and there was a there was a really good like side by side picture of his his new posture versus old posture he’s much more upright he also has more um spinal curve right now which again helps him be more upright in terms of like

Just what his hips are doing uh so that was perfect and then we also talked about how much he’s been struggling with alignment so he goes to a mallet putter that a lot of guys have more success aligning correctly with and gets rid of the line on the balls like both changes

That he made were exactly what we wanted to see definitely don’t think it was a coincidence that he put it as well as he did and consequently I’m maybe even higher on him than our model is which because we have him 19% to win 45%

Chance of a top five 91% chance to make the cup when nobody else is even at 85% it’s crazy how well we have’t projected yeah I just it’s just frustrating when when we talk about something all the time of that’s what we want and that’s

What we want to do and we want to see out of somebody and then he does it and then he wins by that many like come on we should have known it was coming and and we should have just been like all right we’re going to go all in on what

Our you know what we’ve been saying for literally a year and he and then he wins um I’ll be interested to see how it translates this week I think he is gonna be hard to beat personally yeah I do too um it’s going to be interesting for the one and done

Conversation we could go right back to him although I think last week he was at 133% this week he might be like 25% uh in DFS last week I had him in my single entry I had him in I think 50% of mme lineups and in my personal oneandone

Entry I did leave him in because only because I had already used Adam Scott in my personal one otherwise I probably would have made the switch to Adam Scott in both our entry and my own so kind of got lucky there to stick with Scotty but

Um the the really cool thing that I noticed is just from that win my personal entry went from like 1800th place to 200th place Place something like that so we are 100% still in it in our combined entry as well that one and done contest just it’s been so hard to

Find the guys who are doing well this year that everyone absolutely everyone is still in it if you if you go back to back in in these elevated events with winners you’re going to be right there in the top 50 so I’m glad we got into

This as one of the the one Trend that we’ve kind of talked about that that everybody seems to be talking about is the early late wave of being this is what all of your winners I think it’s 9 in a row or something come from early late so I’m generally speaking very much

With you like this is not factual this is just hey your best player that week happen to be in that wave that being said this golf course has been known to get harder and harder and the only time that it plays somewhat easy is that early Thursday you got any thoughts on

That yeah I think of all of the of all of the splits that you’re going to hear this week and we can again talk a little bit more about why they’re so dangerous to look at um of all of the splits I think this is the one where

There’s the most potential for there to be something real and important behind it um one of the reasons why I don’t like looking at winter splits is because golf is already a sport where sample size in the data is a concern right if if we had a larger sample size we could

Make much better predictions but we don’t have that large of a sample size and so this idea of when you can evaluate performance at Saw Grass over the last 10 years or so the idea of removing 99.5% of every field and only looking at what the winners did and where the

Winners came from think is a horrendous idea and it’s really bad process however there is something to be said about the conditions of this golf course fitting the idea that this one split the early late split could be advant vantageous so my thought is number one if you’re going

To really look at this and and conclude for yourself whether it’s something you want to take into account or not the two things that I would implore you to do are number one don’t just look at what the winners have done in the last I think it’s nine of the last 11 winners

Have come from this split something like that go back don’t just look at what the winners have done look at the top five look at the top 10 how many in that group have also come from that split if it’s like 70% year after year coming from that split okay now maybe there’s

Some real signal there if one year it’s seven the next year it’s two but one of the two happened to win now you’re getting this very clear sense okay this has just been something that’s happened kind of randomly and it’s not really contributing to who finishes in the top

10 or who finishes in the top five and then the other thing that I would do is make note of what the weather and the conditions were like in those years I don’t think we’re going to see the greens as firm this year as we have in

The last couple just like we didn’t see them as firm as they’ve been in the last few years at Bay Hill and you know we’re also not supposed to get much wind this week wind plays a huge Factor if there was you know a little wind on Thursday morning than a

Lot Thursday afternoon and there was consistent wind all the Friday then that split should have had the advantage so go back and look at those things don’t just care about what has happened in the last 11 years make sure there’s actually some real signal behind it personally

When I went back and looked at that I didn’t see a whole lot yeah I I think the wind the wind factor is huge there because that’s what firms these greens up is is is the the wind bling you know steady you know for for all afternoon

Thursday afternoon and then by the time you get to Friday morning they’re already so firm that you don’t get maybe the the receptiveness that you got early Thursday morning and that’s where that split came from so I would definitely agree with that that being said I think

It’s happened enough that you have to pay a little bit of attention to see how the course is going to play um it doesn’t happen that many times without having a little something behind it um but I mean the Rory and and sheff are the opposite I think they’re late early so

You know the the tour is going to make sure that if they have whatever they have to do to make the green soft on Friday morning they’re gonna they’re going to get the same conditions yeah the the final thing that I’ll say about these splits

Is the again like one of the reasons why I’m less inclined to just bash this in this split in particular because you’re at least removing the selection bias of this is not good players do well at sress like all the others are and so I

Think like a good example is you’re G to see splits like I don’t know 20 of the last 22 winners have had a top 10 at Saw Grass before you know something like that and that is to say okay made the cut who have been the players playing in

The Players Championship well year after year it’s the best players so naturally guys who win end up winning are going to have had some level of success or just you know experience at Saw Grass there are very few guys every year that come into the week having never played a

Players championship before who are good enough to actually have a chance Jake knap is like the only guy who comes to mind right away for me so if you’re looking at okay what are Jake nap’s chances of winning well they’re not good because he’s one guy in The Players

Championship he’s so vastly outnumbered by guys who have experience at the Players but it’s not like he has a less a lower chance of winning this week than he would at some other golf course just because there’s something inherent about this golf course that makes it tougher

To win the first time I don’t think any of that is true I just think it’s all selection bias so when you are looking at these splits this week when you’re reading all the splits just keep this in mind it’s all selection bias 99% of it

At least is selection bias and if you’re following it to a te if you’re really looking specifically to find players who fit as many Trends as possible I think you’re going in the wrong direction I think you’re you’re eliminating guys that you should be considering and you’re caring too much about guys who

They happen to fit all the splits but they’re no better for it than you know just what you see from their expected Strokes gain and their performance and simulations things like that yeah for sure and uh I meant to bring this up earlier how about my boy Bryce Garnett

Winning last week I know like he you’re you’re too young to to know who he is but we got paed we played together 06 I bet we played 40 rounds tournament rounds together like for some reason we just always ended up getting paired together every single week he’s a

Great dude his cadd is a is probably I guarantee it was a guy named Chris Callas unbelievable guy as well um we I know they get a lot of knock for these off events and like a story like this I think I mean even if Barnes would have

Won great story there like a lot of really good stories and now Bryce is in the field this week um so so just an old friend that I’ve known literally for almost 20 years it’s good to see him keep grinding and win again and um he

Was never one of those guys that were like oh this guy’s gonna make it type of guys you know that I talk about a lot he he never was that he just kind of goes out there and does his business and grinds it out and and here he is pretty

Long successful PJ tour career and now he kind of just got to revamp it and hopefully continues on this is the first time he gained over a stroke per round in an event since the caralis punana champ chionship in March of last year so pretty cool to see to see this

Performance from him uh Monday Q info Ryan French did a wrote a really really good open letter to Rory any golf fans out there if you’re not just here for the betting and the DFS advice go check out what he had to say to Rory I think

It was just a really good argument a counter to the comments that Rory made and that Windam made about making the the tour even more exclusive than it already is um the B basically like I I don’t want to give away the full article because again it was really really good

And a fantastic read but the the two main points were that if the tour were to become even more exclusive how many of the Bryce Garnett type stories do you lose because he’s no longer on tour getting this wi that completely changes his life it helps his family helps his

Friends all that sort of thing and then the second point was how many of the Windham Clarks are still Windham Clark because you know Windham would have been um somebody who lost status at one point things of that nature Soh two really good points and personally like I think

The thing that you and I have talked about a number of times is that we’ve been fortunate enough to play with a lot of High Caliber PGA Tour players now your good friends with a bunch of them the commonality between all of them that we hear consistently is that it’s a hell

Of a lot harder to get to the tour than it is to stay on the tour the move that you know Rory and wiam we’re talking about I think is like one step removed from the best situation which is you make it harder to keep your

Card but then there are more spots for new members each year not fewer spots uh that’s the way that I would go and everybody is was all over gu for his comments which we made fun of them on the show talk about ton deaf wendam Clark is with the most toned deaf com

Comments of all time like how why is nobody cracking down on what he said he literally wouldn’t have a PGA Tour card right now if had if they did what he wanted like just to be so naive and so just not have no awareness of a

Situation like I I just thought more of him I guess than than than the reality I mean you don’t make comments like that and and it just be so farfetched because you wouldn’t even be there you’re asking you’re that’s basically like saying hey look I made it now make it to where

Nobody else can take my spot yeah 100% not only that but like he gets the the major championship we a year ago he wins last year and this year in an elevated event he contends again this week at the the API it’s like he was really becoming

A true star on tour and then he makes these comments that are going to make people not like him just what horrendous timing to the comments as well not just the fact that they so clearly misguided but I I just don’t even know where it came from like what what like just just

If anybody should be sticking up for the little guy it should be a guy like him right I mean a guy that finded it out and made it and then you know um I don’t know it it was really disappointed disappointing to to hear him say stuff

Like that and and like I said I just just very toned deaf comment um and I don’t I mean he should be getting backlash but he should be getting as much as Taylor gu did and I don’t think he is I I think he has actually I think

He’s gotten a bunch of of of backlash it’s it’s a different kind of backlash because with gu he was wrong in a way that was really comical and so people love to just jump on it to make fun of it to make their own jokes about it with

WAMS like it’s not like you can make a a funny joke about what he had to say it’s just well that’s incorrect like I don’t know what else to say about it that’s just wrong and weird to say um but yeah he he’s definitely had some backlash

About it and as you said like he he deserves all the backlash that he gets for it um let’s talk betting for a second yeah I was say I know you have a course fit guy that you want to talk about let’s get back into that I know

You there’s one guy that you are super high on um there’s a few on the short list that that I could probably guess but um yeah let’s get to it I want to hear kind of where you’re headed so both of my outrights so far this week and

There’s a very good chance that I will end up making more but the two outrights that I’ve made so far are long shots and the reason why I love the long shots is because one of the things that the sports books do this week is they make

The eway bets even more attractive than usual where bet Rivers goes from oneth payout for the top six to a one payout for the top seven bet 36 five does something similar where they they have a one payout for the top eight or you can go to your usual option of the 1/4

Payout for top five and get even higher odds than usual so um I like the eway market a ton and I want to take full advantage of that and the way to do that in my opinion is to go to the Long Shots who are just completely undervalued Doug

Gim is the first one for me there we have him at 1.06 expected Strokes gained he’s been awesome of late he he really fits the bill of somebody who has had a ton of success and has been thriving lately despite the fact that he is not

Very long off the te we have him losing 07 Strokes per round with his driving distance gaining almost half a stroke per round with his accuracy off the te really love that uh his approach play has been spectacular his around the green game has been much much improved

And even his putting has been really improved he kind of started the year as someone who you know might be in the sewo Kim range of putting struggles and the Kevin U range of putting struggles has really turned that around it’s not like he’s gaining Strokes on the on the

Greens now but he’s not losing anywhere near as much as he used to so I like gim quite a bit I believe that was at 175 no that was 140 to one um and then Lucas Glover is the guy who was in my mind when you thought it was Russell

Henley it was Lucas Glover in my mind uh he’s 175 to one we have him at 72 expected Strokes gains not quite projecting as well as Doug but Glover also has the advantage of being a high volatility golfer with him the volatility is almost purely from the

Putting we remember how great he putted down that stretch last year putter hasn’t been anywhere near as good this year but there’s still signs right there are still days where he makes a handful of those 8 to 12 Footers he’s pouring in all of the important five foot par saves

He’s missing more this year than he did a year ago and consequently he’s losing about half a stroke per round putting in his last like five five events or so but we still have his putting projection at let me find him here we still have it at negative .16

Per round so like we’re expecting him to struggle but the chance that he could give you half-stroke gain a full stroke gain is plenty High to give him a very real chance to contend loses about uh2 per round with distance gains about three with accuracy he’s been truly of

The best iron players in the world and the thing about his game that I don’t think people have realized this year is that his short game has really become one of the better short games in the world he’s gained in every single event this year around the grains his worst

Performance was at cognizant where he gained 0.16 strs per round around the greens the short game has really really turned the corner and that’s a huge Advantage here when we know guys are going to miss greens so I thought there might be one other guy that we talk

About a lot of how talented he is and he hasn’t been very good late of late but you you know we’ve talked about a lot that might fit the bill here and this is going to be kind of the guy that per se my men wo Le of of last year

Although he’s way more more known and that’s Taylor Moore um he he’s slowly gotten gotten better I know he’s worked really hard at home um we all know he’s super talented he has the ability to drive it really really straight uh I wouldn’t be surprised to see him contend

This week I think he’s kind of been trending the right direction for a while and and um yeah I I’m pretty he’s way too cheap on DraftKings he’s in the fives I believe and and that’s just way too much CH I I saw also Grayson Murray’s in the

Fives if you want a high volatility player that can that can hit all the golf shots I mean at 5100 Grayson Murray that’s won this year um you know especially if you want want to stuff you know a Sheffer and a Rory into your lineup and then still and still get a

Bunch of the you know Burns type of guys in there with him I think he’s somebody that you know if he finished in the top top 20 here I wouldn’t be very surprised at all I like the Taylor Moore call a lot this was actually the event last

Year when the Taylor Moore kind of surge began uh especially in that final round Showdown he made us a bunch of money carried that all the way to the V bar where he got us the outright win both pre-tournament and live tournament the still to this day the only guy I’ve ever

Won on both pre-tournament and live so that was a really fun one I would love to see Taylor Mo play well again Lucas Glover is going to be my like quote unquote slate breaker this week week where he’s going to be probably sub five% and makes it easier to fit the

Studs and projects really well I just love everything about the Lucas Glover play on that note once again the gpp scores this week are telling us to pay up as much as we possibly can Scotty Rory and shley are going to be the top three guys in gpp score I don’t think

Scotty can possibly get as popular as she as he should be I even think there’s a chance in in my like shell ownership I have them around 30% in single entries I even think there’s a chance that that could go down to 15 to 20ish we’ll see

What happens but there could be just a complete uh revulsion to that price tag where people don’t want to go there um maybe the rare week where he’s actually higher owned in mme than he is in single entry because of that it’s just you know optimizers are going to grab him but

People might have trouble clicking on a price tag near 13,000 so going to be very interesting to see where his ownership comes in but at 45% in our simulations to finish top five and only 9% to miss the cut this is the whole thing about the the gpp scores it’s that

In PGA there’s just this complete skew in the distributions of potential outcomes for players towards failure in PGA it’s really obvious what failure is it’s a miscut in other sports you just don’t get that like I I write a um an article called the chalk report for NFL

DFS and in that I talk about how wide receivers Mega good chalk wide receivers are like this cheat code in NFL DFS because they quote unquote smash 35% of the time and fail 15% of the time if you look at smashing as um you know helping you win tournaments the PGA equivalent

Is probably somewhere between a top five and a top 10 outcome so in the NFL DFS you get 35% towards the ceiling outcome 15% towards the floor outome the failure PGA everybody with the exception of Scotty Rory and shawley are far more likely to fail than they are to give you that ceiling

Performance that means we should be going away from the chocolats why the gpp scores have been so helpful this year and once again because of that they’re pointing to the studs so I can pretty much guarantee that I will have a studs and Duds type lineup again

Centered around probably Scotty um but I might even go like a dual Rory ants and shle start something like that if Scotty’s ownership does get higher than expected and then go down to the Lucas Glover types and and others in that range um far more separation at the top

Of between the big three and everybody else right below them then 6,000 guys to 7,000 guys 7,000 guys to 8,000 guys there’s not a ton of Separation there so we’ll be pretty happy just finding my favorites in that range yeah um I think it just speaks to a testament of how how

Much we believe cheers on a different level we haven’t talked one about one time about The Hangover effect that we talk about from other guys winning and then coming back the next week you know it’s not even it’s almost like he’s just immune to it right and that’s just kind

Of the he’s just that good um you got a guy that’s won here last year that won last week all normal thought process would be man this would be a hard week to defend you’re basically defending last week and last year all in once yeah this dude’s just that good

Um and I’m gonna ride that putter while he’s confident because I think this is what happened to Lucas blover I mean I’m sure you’ve done it before where you changed Putters in the first three or four weeks you’re like man this is awesome I’m never putting with anything

Else and then you know you kind of go back to your normal medium performance over time so I’m gonna try to I think I’m G to ride it out here and see what happens and then uh yeah I agree with the new DraftKings pricings allows you to do this a lot more with

With this with stars you know um but I don’t know we’ll see there’s so many guys down there that are cheap I I want there’s two guys left that I want to talk about they both they both kind of fit the bill of playing good this place one of

Them everybody’s talking about and that’s Justin Thomas um obviously everybody pretty much I think everybody has them on their outright card literally if you go down Twitter and like anybody that’s involved in golf DFS is betting on Justin Thomas the other one kind of you know their buddies that

Seems seems to have figured it out and hits it really straight and that’s Ricky Fowler um he’s gotten better and better I just kind of wanted to see what your thoughts are on him is his resurgent real or is this just like he’s just kind

Of playing okay or do you think he he can contend again I’ll I’ll start with JT there’s basically zero chance that I’ll be using him in DFS just because again if if I’m going up to 106 I will just find a way to get to 113 to Xander

Or 116 to Rory the the difference between JT and those guys is just so much greater than the difference between any other thousand Gap that I’m going to find anywhere down below so I will always make that sacrifice to get all the way up with Fowler I initially have him projected

For such low ownership that I do think it’s worth considering however he’s been far less accurate off the tea of late than what we’re accustomed to seeing from him you know that over the last couple years and particularly last year as he you know really kind of came back

From the dead almost a lot of it was how accurate he was off the te he’s basically completely lost that he’s he’s only gained Strokes off the te three times this year and he’s lost a considerable amount four times uh just hasn’t been anywhere near the same off

The tea and and that has me scared uh at this golf course and and I think he might fit the bill of what we what you know you were talking about with Adam Scott earlier is he knew how important it was to hit it far and maybe he especially because all these golf

Courses have played super soft this year so he hasn’t played anywhere where he can rely on a ton of run out and and stuff like that too so I think there might be um something to that side of it as well uh I like I said it was just two

Thoughts of guys that one a Fowler I think fits the build to play better here and then um I think he’s smart enough to get his way around this place too so that that that’s kind of why I think that I’ll have him I mean you can get

Him like you were talking about I think he’s gonna be such so low owned that it may be worth uh get him get him in my single entry lineup I’ll probably have three single entry lineups or I may just do the the the three max again this week

And and just kind of build a player pool around that so um it was just more of a curiosity your thoughts those that’s pretty much all the guys that we’ve kind of hit on everybody I I really like zalat zator and burns this week I think

They both have a will have a good chance to contend that being said I think that like you were talking about trying to get up to those other guys might be more advantageous zot torus is one of those guys that could end up being like extreme popular he’s got one of the

Wider ranges I think of potential ownership this week where if he’s 10 to 15% he does project quite well for us if he’s 20 to 25% it’s like a screaming Fade to me so very interested to see where he comes in there uh it’s it’s

Also going to be like I can pretty much guarantee that somebody in that range zotor havland Windam Clark hom spe even more aala like someone in that range is going to be grossly under owned and someone is going to be grossly over owned not sure who is who yet but that’s

Going to be a pretty important range at least for mme this week I think um and then yeah can you imagine getting can you imagine getting morawa like Peak morawa like under 5% of the players like that would he he it’s interesting like he’s not as great in the stran driving

Accuracy metric as most would think because so much of his quote unquote accuracy off the te comes from the fact that he’s nowhere near as long as most of the Elites in the world but he is still accurate off the te and he does benefit at this golf course compared to

The golf courses we played over the last month where his loss or his lack of distance doesn’t hurt him anywhere near as much here as it does many other places uh he can obviously get hot enough both off the tea and with the irons that he could just dismantle this

Place um his around the green play has improved another guy where I think that Improvement has really flown under the radar and it’s part of the reason why he’s starting to project quite well for us where a year ago like he was consistently on our fatal list because

People just didn’t realize how much he was struggling in that department the way that havland was struggling havin made that turnaround and obviously got a ton of attention for that because he was winning golf tournament morawa hasn’t gotten the same attention and actually this season it’s been morawa not havland

Whose short game has been far improved compared to a year ago so uh definitely some interest in morawa if he is under owned like I think he will be and then you mentioned Russell Henley another guy in that range along with Henley sah theala I think once again will be under

Owned just someone who continues to string together some really good performances and is so incredibly volatile from event to event that he just has this like fantastic ceiling and I love the fact that he’s played exactly two that so far this year like we went into the season talking about how his

Volatility can help us get some cealing outcomes from him well he’s got a second at the century a fifth at the Phoenix Open and a T6 at at the API only one other top 20 and it was T20 at Pebble Beach so he’s been as Hit or Miss Boom

Or bust as we kind of expected and again we just love that from guys who are going to be under 10% own so pretty much covered as much of the DFS field as we could so far uh this week last thing before we get out of here what are your oneandone

Thoughts the I mean the original side of this right was just to let’s just pay up and let’s get Scotty out of the way and and not overthink it the problem is I don’t want to use Sheffer when he’s chalk because he can win he’s so much better than everybody

Else if everybody else use him that being said if he wins like he did last week then we’re just kicking ourselves again right so so do we put on full fade he’s the easy decision here I think I think if we’re chasing an under owned volatile player that’s coming back into form

Um I love the idea of Sam Burns I I definitely uh agree with the Scotty thought I think another thing that I’ll say about Scotty is I’m not sure we’re going to get another instance this year in a field like this where he is this much separated from the other best in the

World where Rory hasn’t been playing his best shafley hasn’t been playing his best everyone below that is like even in uh more of a a state of dismay or whatever uh where it really is just Scotty Head and Shoulders above the rest of the world right now and there are

Only two guys even close to him in our in our numbers Rory and shle so I’m not sure we’re going to see Scotty projecting close to a 19% win rate like we are this week uh in in a field anywhere near this strength again this year so I definitely like the idea of

Going back to Scotty I also think there’s an argument to be made because now 133% of the field got Scotty in a win that it almost doesn’t really matter matter what ownership you get on Scotty this week you either get Scotty in a win or you don’t and if you don’t you’re

Already giving up so much to that 13% who won last week that it almost doesn’t even matter so I think that Scotty will be 20 to 25% this week in one and done typically would make me uh want to go somewhere else but I don’t think I don’t

Think I’m as opposed to it uh now because he won last week as I would be if you know he had finished fifth or 10th a week ago yeah like you said he’s so good I I would make an argument for Rory if we hadn’t used him at Pebble

Just because the third round was maybe I think he shot four under the third round and it probably was the highest score he could have shot which around that place to say he went around with like the second best round of the day and he couldn’t have shot any higher

Like that’s pretty incredible so um you know I think that there’s arguments going to be made out there for him and hopefully that draws some of the Scotty ownership you know for us um yeah outside of that like if we weren’t going to play him I would I

Would go down and look in that zalot torus Burns range right you know those guys right in there um just because I think they’ve both shown that they’re they’re capable of winning right now that the the finish on now the the flip side to finish on Saturday is alot torus

Was man not fun to watch I mean I think he had he was out to a three or four shot lead at one point and looked like he was in complete control and and then struggled down the stretch so I I think that at this point I think we just gota

We’re going to stuff shffle in there and then unless we talk ourselves out of it um I think that’s probably the best way to go the the other guy that I’ll mention is Colin morawa we just talked about him a little bit um part of the reason why I

Like the thought of morawa here is that it’s one of the better course fits that he’ll have on the season and I would guess that he is 1% owned Max in the oneandone contest so uh between Scotty and morawa for me but I think a lot of

The names that you said as well make a ton of sense so we’re not going to finalize the decision here on Tuesday morning we will finalize it later in the week and we will talk through it with everybody in the ftn Discord and speaking of we will have our ownership

Projections up probably early this afternoon something like that with it the gpp scores will be up so plenty to be excited about and finally we will have prize picks plays Underdog plays maybe even sleep plays this week in the pickham world so get into the fdn daily

Discord for those these are the events where I think the largest Edge comes in those games because they know that more attention is on the on the sport this week than most so they provide some extra you know opportunities they they create new categories um and when you

Create a new category it’s just a lot harder to price correctly so we get the chance to really pounce on any mistakes that they make so again jump into the FN daily Discord we have a pick them specific channel for all of that stuff thank you everybody for tuning in we

Will catch you next time