THE PLAYERS Championship | Fantasy Golf Preview & Picks, Sleepers, Data – DFS Golf & DraftKings

The TOUR heads to TPC Sawgrass in Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida for THE PLAYERS Championship. Rick uses data to breakdown the courses, field and much more!

🏆 Underdog: https://bit.ly/UDRICK
🎽 Code “RICK” For $100 Deposit Match
🐳 Splash 3&D: https://bit.ly/45PcGyB
📊 Major Rankings: https://RickRunGood.com/BestBall
🏊‍♀️ PoolGenius OAD Tool: https://bit.ly/RRG_OAD
🏆 All Data & Tools: https://RickRunGood.com

🐦 My Twitter: https://twitter.com/RickRunGood

SHOW INDEX
0:00 Intro
1:26 Course Preview
9:02 10K Range
17:39 9K Range
22:39 8K Range
29:07 7K Range
35:20 6K Range
38:33 5K Range
41:39 Custom Model
44:05 Outro
______________

#THEPLAYERSChampionship #TPCSawgrass #PGATOUR #DFS #Golf​ #FantasyGolf #PGA​ #OneAndDone ​#RickRunGood​​ #draftkings #underdogfantasy

What’s up guys Rick here with your preview for this week’s Players Championship where we’re going to look through the golf course the field and everything that you can imagine with data and see if we can find the best decisions to make before I jump into that this is a very important reminder

Because if you want to play in the three and done not the one and done the three and done that starts this week this is your last call there were a lot of people that missed the deadline for the one andone at the season start this is a

Five event three and done the players championship and the four majors you’ll pick three golfers for each one you can only use them once so you’re going to choose 15 golfers in total over those five events it is a $500 buyin I get it I know some people want it a little bit

Less than that but it is what it is this is what we were able to get and there’s already over $25,000 in the purse this is fully regulated and legal in I think it’s 40 States and DC might be 41 States so check to see if you can access this and then there

Are segment payouts for each tournament all five tournament so if you have one really good tournament and you struggle the rest of the way you might be able to get uh some winnings either way all right that is uh the pitch I am in it

I’m ready to rock and roll I’m ready to make my picks the link that you need is in the description and I wish you all the luck let’s start with maybe the most iconic no no most recognizable golf course in the world I don’t know if that’s true or not it’s probably top

Three definitely top five where if you just said hey here’s an aerial view what golf course is this uh I think this would be top three obviously all the water obviously uh the 17th hole it’s been in every video game we’ve seen it every year for the last this is I think

Year 50 so yeah it’s it’s pretty recognizable uh from a data perspective I’m actually going to just scroll right past the correlation model uh we’ll come back to that I want to start right here because I think that this is the story of the week and what I’m showing if

You’re just listening to the audio version of this is the off the te chart which shows how often Fairways are hit average drives and most importantly what the penalty is for missing the Fairway and what you’ll see here quick napkin math there’s like 10 holes uh and these

Are only the fours and the fives that if you miss the Fairway you are getting at least a third of a stroke of a penalty on that um it’s a ton it’s a ton to have to have a any hole that gets over a third of a stroke there’s a couple holes

Here where it’s a half stroke penalty um to the scoring average if you miss the Fairway it it’s it’s a big number and there’s a lot of those holes and the reason for that is twofold in my opinion one there’s there’s water everywhere just everywhere right so if you are

Missing in a big way you’re finding the water and then the other thing is if you’re keeping it dry but in the thick rough it’s like 3 and a half inches of thick rough it is very Lush I was down there uh right around tour I wasn’t

There for the tournament last year but right around tournament time and it was I mean it’s nasty stuff it’s really really nasty and then you throw in you know some treat some strategically placed trees and bunkers it’s just really difficult to score if you are not

Playing out of the Fairway or if you are playing out of the Fairway you’re getting a little bit of an edge so I wanted to start here because this is such a big penalty for missing the Fairway um so I wanted to point that out

If we go up and we look at the correlated stats to success and again we’ve got great history at this event now we did go back from May to March in 19 I believe it was Rory melroy’s uh most recent Victory so what I’ve done is

You know that that’s kind of taken into account in this correlation model because you don’t necessarily want to look at May stuff in March and you don’t want to look at March stuff in May what do you see here Strokes gained off the te is the most uh correlated Su stat to

Success that is not what I love about this is now we’re we’re building a really good case here because the the metrics down here how much is a penalty for missing the Fairway that is literally scoring averages right that’s me going shot by shot and running the data and saying okay while the

Tournament is being played what uh what penalty are guys getting for missing the Fairway on every single hole so that’s while the tournament is being played this correlation model looks at the season uh the season as a whole and then looks at every single golf course and

Says what types of players have had success or are correlated to success at this golf course th these don’t have to line up in fact there are weeks where they don’t here they do so Strokes gained off the te being the most important metric not only is it ranked eth but the value

Of it is more than Strokes gained approach which is also ranked very highly that is telling to me um so I I love it when both of those things line up because one is what types of players are having success and the other one is you know here’s the actual penalty for

Missing the Fairway along the way so I I love that um if you take that course fit and you run it for the last 36 rounds you see who gets uh the biggest boost per se in terms of adjusted fit and to literally no one’s surprise Scotty sheffler right Scotty

Sheffler gets nearly a stroke in AE half Advantage here at TPC Sawgrass because he is such a great driver he is so good on approach like all of that stuff right Rory mooy is number two Xander Schley is number four Victor havin is number six none of that is really all that

Surprising Keith Mitchell at number three is Keith is a great driver he’s a great ball striker in general this is probably one of uh I mean this is probably the golf course on the PGA Tour that allows his strength to be magnified the most he also has to figure out the

Rest of his game and he’s going to have to do a lot of different things well but the best parts of his game are most rewarded here and then Adam Scott is fifth Adam Scott has a lot of great success at TPC sress we will talk about

Course history and how sticky it is and all that fun stuff Adam Scott has a great history around here he gets a great adjusted fit let’s talk about theck stickiness of this golf course um what you’re going to hear a lot this week especially because of Scotty Sheffer um trying to go back

To back and coming off the win last week is you are going to hear them say no one has ever successfully defended at the Players Championship that is a refrain you’re going to hear constantly and of course it is true to me that doesn’t even really scratch the Sur Sur of the

Volatility of results at this golf course um you know Rory mroy missed the cut before his win missed the cut after his win missed the cut a couple of years after his win uh even Scotty Sheffer in his three trips has gone miscut 55th first guys that have had a lot of success

Here do not often have year-over-year success and guys that struggle here do not often have year overy year struggles there there is a very unsticky what’s the what’s the opposite of sticky lubricated course history around here uh for a couple of reasons again it’s a difficult golf course there is the water everywhere

Means big scores are in play playing it in Florida this time of year does bring in some potential wind waves or weather waves we’ve seen that so you might just on the wrong end of the draw it’s a massive field when you have a field this

Big on a golf course this volatile it’s pretty easy to miss the cut and you see that from a lot of guys so I’m when we get to the custom model portion of the show I’m going to put a little weight on course history but it’s not going to be

Nearly as much as you see most weeks or when we get to Augusta in a few weeks like I I just don’t really care either way about course history good bad or indifferent this is the cheat sheet on rickun good.com everything I’ve shown you thus far and and will continue to

Show you will be from rickun good.com it’s my website it’s a giant database for Fantasy Golf and golf betting it’s all that I do is golf so I think you should check it out I love it I think you’ll love it too go give it a click

There are six golfers over $10,000 and we are again this week going down into the 5K range for DraftKings pricing Big Field all that fun stuff here here we go Scotty shuer $12,800 uh obviously deserving of that price tag deserving of everything that comes with his success

We have finally answered the question of what happens when Scotty uh putts well and he wins a golf tournament by five shots that that’s exactly what it is after losing a stroke and a half on the putting surfaces in round number one he was lights out the rest of the week and

He actually gained 4.3 Strokes putting uh which is his best putting results since I’m scrolling I’m I’m going to have to add more years to this um you’ll have to take my word for it it is probably a very long time yeah so that was wow two of like his top seven

Putting performances in his career have come at Bay Hill so that was number six uh his best putting performance since Phoenix in 2022 which is also an event that he won because when Scotty putell he’s he’s going to win um looking at it this week he’s getting a a salary inre

He was 34% owned last week uh it’s a much smaller field so while I think he’ll be popular this week it’s probably going to come at a lower number um I think that when you go down into the 5K range it’s pretty it is pretty easy to

Get Scotty into some of these lineups again I don’t care that he won this last year I care that he switched to a mallet style putter he switched to uh not using the line on top of his golf ball he went from being very robotic to being a

Little artistic being a little bit bit athletic the stats paid off he looked confident right I mean this is to me the combination of of both statistics and anecdotes here the eye test he looked super confident to me um The Stroke always kind of looks I I think the issue

With his putting is I don’t think he he uh starts it on the line that he wants no I don’t think he lines it up well he can start on the line that he wants I don’t think he lines it up well and the Mallet and not using the line I think

Goes a long way for him so I’ll have as much access this shuffer as I can get Rory mroy um I think there is Rory is good enough right so so here’s The Strokes gain Trends tool and I want to point this out for a reason on Rory uh the way

That I do this is I look at everybody’s 100 round Baseline and then I compare it to any number of rounds that you want I like to use the last 36 Rory mroy is dead even to himself in the last 36 rounds so compared his 36 round version

To his 100 round version It’s the the same he’s not playing hotter than it he’s not playing colder than it that is still the best in the field 1.7 Strokes gained per round so when you have um you know ludvig here who’s playing a third of a stroke over his 100 round Baseline

He still does not get to Rory mroy so it is a really high floor the one thing that I I think there are a couple of things to worry about here um and we’ve talked about this a little bit I’ll zoom in so you guys can see this a little bit

Better his results in 20124 haven’t been that good um he has played mostly well enough for me to not be concerned he he’s driving it unbelievable he’s he’s probably the best driver in the world and that is going to be super rewarded here I worry about this second column uh you know losing

Strokes on approach and he looks a little bit I don’t want to say lost but it reminds me of oh boy I’m going to have to go back a couple years but remember there was that stretch where he uh kept losing Strokes on approach he was uh losing especially with his with

His wedges I think it was about he snapped out of it at in at Wells Fargo so it was here where he just wasn’t very good with his wedges and he was missing a lot of shots left that’s what this reminds me of uh both I test and

Statistically the other thing that I worry about is almost every event in 2024 so far he has made a big number or two and he has still gotten away with it in a couple of smaller field signature field events maybe he’s done it on the weekend whatever but if he makes that

Big number or hits that big one that like that big left Miss early in the week here there’s it’s really easy to miss the cut it’s really easy to miss the cut so that would worry me a bit I think that Rory is just uh more highrisk

High reward than than or excuse me probably not high reward just more risk than uh Scotty Sheffer is at the moment the rest of this 10K range is pretty interesting you know the the price on Xander 11,300 feels a bit heavy you know he he did finish T25 and played well on

Sunday at the API last week but it was he was just never in it just never at all in it um I I’m not sure what the takeaways are there he did play better Rivier played better at the I mean it’s it’s fine I just think I think Justin

Thomas probably should have been here you know JT had the the two really bad rounds at at Riviera and other than that he’s been Splendid for like 15 starts in a row and I’m not I mean I could I’ll pull up his Players Championship stuff

It’s it’s good but again I I’m not I’m not weighing this nearly as much but it’s good he’s got the win he’s never missed a cut here he finished third in 2016 it’s great you know gain Strokes off the te gain Strokes on approach the putter cooperates sometimes it’s it’s

Fine but what I see is is outside of this outlier at Riviera two things a elite ball Striker which is what you want from Justin Thomas that’s his DNA and a pretty well-rounded golfer gaining through the bag at API at Phoenix almost did it at Pebble he did do it at the

American Express this goes back to his European tour stuff all all by the way I I’ve got the European tour data I’ve got six tours on rickun good.com so if you want to get the full picture of some of these guys um probably worth checking

Out a source that has access to all of those tours so I think JT at 106 probably excites me the most and again I don’t care about the the history here Klay if you’re GNA take a flyer on Klay or Xander why why why not Klay um two

Guys that just were never in the mix last week but have played better this year you don’t usually see extended stretches of of slumping from either one of these guys and 103 for a guy of Patrick klay’s ilk who has um you know winning upside I think is exciting we

Have to do a deep dive on Victor havin because there is um there’s a couple of things here so statistically this should be a place that gives him a really good fit right uh great driver great ball Striker his history here again I don’t care but it

Was third and Ninth but I think there’s a lot of questions about what to do with him 2024 hasn’t been off to a great start he started the Year by losing Strokes on approach pretty significantly something he hasn’t done in his career the other little concern

Is he has now lost around the green and four straight which is something that he did plug last year and I’m not going to say the reason for that is because of the coaching change I’m not going to say I don’t know that we’ll never know that

But when when you have a a life change a game change an injury something that happens and then the stat profile follows along I think that’s noteworthy and maybe Victor and Grant weight are still working through some things and getting everything all cleaned up but I would be

Lying if I said that this that this wasn’t a concerning stat profile I think he’s close um I saw plenty of really good signs at at Bay Hill and then you know didn’t really put it together for all four rounds or for 18 holes at a time

But this is starting to starting to be a little bit concerning the 9k range is really fun here so I’m I’ve been on the record I buy I’m buying so much will zour stock I just cannot stop I’m that’s not I’m not going to stop this week

Another really good finish at a big time event difficult golf courses are where he gets to shine Hideki Matsuyama is here Hideki always makes everybody a little queasy you know he’s got these quotes where my back hurts or my you know what my game stinks or whatever it is just plug your

Ears and do not listen to Hideki you you can’t realistically what he’s done is a t22 in Phoenix a win at Riviera and then in the mix at Bay Hill before he punts away on Sunday which a lot of guys punted it away on Sunday Harris English

Rory mroy um like Klay three straight bogeys late it’s just like it happens so you still look at distance off the T sure approach play great um a much better putter than people want to give him credit for he’s gained six Strokes putting in his last three starts a

Phenomenal around the green game right I I think that if you can just kind of plug your ears plug your nose don’t worry about the Hideki WD or back quote or whatever he’s going to give us this week the stats are really good on it and

Of course um again I’m I’m going to show I’m I’ll stop saying it but I’ll show you the PLAYERS Championship stuff just know that I don’t care as much um 5ifth in 2023 8th in 2019 7th in 2016 those are his three best finishes he missed the cut twice in seven starts eight

Starts seven starts three four five six seven eight eight starts and remember he was the first- round leader in 2020 before they canceled this event that really doesn’t mean anything but I I wanted to point it out there Max hom and I mentioned this last week you know

He is not the shiny new object ludvig is ludvig who has got a ton of top 25s a runner up at Pebble that he might have won if they played the final round uh a game that translates perfectly to this golf course will be the popular One Max hom

I I scratched my head last week because last week I I liked the liked course history a lot and Homo was was great at Bay Hill and he finished eighth again so now homo’s Bay Hill history is is what five straight top 25s including the the

T8 from from last week 16th at Riv eighth at Bill the game is rounding into form the Putter’s really hot there’s room for improvement both off the T end on approach he’s got backtack top 15 finishes here and I don’t think anybody’s going to want to play him or at least not

Enough to to to worry me I think they’re going to go to ludvig I think they’ll go to zures and Dei maybe you even get a little bit of Windham Clark Sam Burns is another one Sam Burns was two shots off the lead on Sunday he

Makes a triple out of the gate he makes another triple late in his round he finishes 30th I think it’s so bizarre how this all looks right you know if he would have done that in round one and then rallied to a T3 T30 finish everybody would be excited about him

This week uh instead it’s the opposite but when you look at this again and and see okay wow his 2024 his last five are 6th 10th 3rd 10th 30th on a golf course that’s a good fit for him why why are we not like the dude is a putting machine I just

It’s really it’s really bizarre what people do so so H and burns feel like the pretty good the pretty good pivots in in this range um I’ll be interested to see what people do with Cam young he was very popular last week he didn’t really disappoint but he didn’t do

Anything spectacular another good golf course for him so I think I think the 9k range is the range of pivots that that seems to be uh the key for me and then also you have to tip your you have to tip your hat to Shane Lowry the one

Thing that Shane Lowry does better than everybody else in this 9k ranges he hits Fairways and he’s not very long but you saw what happens when you when you play out of the Fairway at the cognizant when you play out of the Fairway at beay Hill it’s back-to-back top five finishes this

Is obviously a deeper and very strong field but last week was a strong field as well good history around here and a skill set that allows him to play out of the short grass and he’s playing decent decent golf so 9k range is stocked um probably a good pivot range we’ll see

How the the ownership shakes out we’re going to do a live show as we do every week Wednesday 3m. Eastern Time Rick run good YouTube channel will go through all the questions answers we’ll have ownership projections we’ll have oneandone projections we’ll have a lot

More data than we do now on this on this Monday so for this 8K range I want to start on the trends tool here because I want to see who starts popping off so you’ve got minwu Lee here who is playing about a quarter of a stroke uh per round

In the last 36 over his Baseline it gets him close to a 1.5 Strokes gain per round golfer that’s a huge number you also have sah here who’s playing nearly a quarter of a stroke better than his Baseline um that gets him to about a stroke per round which is all like

That’s a very very good number so he’s at $8,700 and then there’s a pretty big gap uh just in terms of heat between those guys and everybody else in the 8K sunjay is next sunj is playing to his 100 round Baseline doesn’t feel like it but he’s playing to his 100 round

Baseline it hasn’t been that great I bet you if I go to 12 round sunj is going to drop even farther than that but what I’m what I’m seeing is and then fenale next and fow’s slightly losing to himself over the last 36 so what I think is

Setting up here is a really popular 9k range and an 8K range where people are going to throw their hands up maybe click one name that they like it’s it’s probably going to be a combination of minwu Lee and sah sah doesn’t have a great record here don’t care

And he is much more improved much more consistent now than he’s probably ever been I’ll pull up his profile in a second and then mimu Lee at the bottom who did have a good finisher last year had the runner up at PGA National everybody knows the skill set everybody

Likes to play him here’s the sah profile and it is a lot more consistent than he used to be the other thing that I like is he was a routine loser off the tea not nearly anymore since the Scottish open he has lost Strokes off the te one

Time and it’s turning into a little bit of a weapon for him the second shot still very much up in the air his short game is phenomenal we saw that on full display almost almost too much I mean we knew a regression was coming after what was itd Friday’s round Friday’s round no

Thursday’s round he had the best around the green um round of anybody this season on any in any event so we knew that the regression was coming there but he is a very good he has a very good short game he’s a very good Putter and

We’ve got back to or uh two top six finishes in his last five I think he’s feeling very confident he’s played well at the signature event I think on paper this is not a course that you would Circle and say hey sah is going to be really great here but I

Think he can be because he’s he’s he’s maturing at a at a fairly quick rate the guy that gets so easily overlooked is Russell Henley who who routinely puts up great finishes and everybody moves on quickly he has not missed a cut since the Open Championship during that time

Frame he has 1 two 3 4 five six seven top 15s including last week’s API he is not going to gain you a ton of Strokes off the T but what he’s going to do is he’s going to play out of the Fairway right he’s 42 in driving accuracy and

When he misses it’s very very small which should keep the water out of play uh fourth in distance from edge of Fairway then he is one of the better uh ball Strikers second shot players on the PGA tour you can see the putter has been scorching ever since they got to Florida

So he goes seven strokes gained at PGA National 5.5 at Bay Hill you know little little FL swing might might do good for Russell Henley who’s a who’s a Georgia guy get yourself in the Southeast and um see what you can do so I’m I’m excited to see what this range turns

Into I also think like Ben like can we just Ben on real quick people who were waiting for the for for the cool off for Ben H Ben on have have not gotten it his 2024 let’s do this let’s go to the Holy Grail um everybody in this field since January 1 of

2024 I wonder where whoops I wonder where Ben on is I probably could have just typed it in a lot faster than doing it this way but let’s find out I bet you been on let’s get rid of let’s just do only I don’t want I don’t want Senior

Tour events I don’t want corn faery events I don’t want Asian tour events uh live doesn’t matter because there’s none of those guys so PJ and European tour benon is let’s see wow I mean he is the one two three four five six seven eight n 10 11 I’m I’m not counting Bryce

Garnett who of course you know just won in Puerto Rico but um no sample size there so he’s like the 10th best player in in in this field since January 1 he’s been better than Jordan he’s been better than sah and Adam Scott and cam young and all these guys Austin ekro and

Ludvig and I know they playing in some different fields but not that many benan played beill finished T8 benan played Riviera play finished t26 Ben on played the century finish fourth his signature events year has been pretty good let’s do that I mean while we’re here I mean

Right you’re here for this right so um let’s just do the tournament so let’s just do the Signature Events Arnold Palmer beah Hill uh Sentry and Riv right four of them yeah of the of guys who have played all 15 rounds right four44 and three he’s the third best player in

Signature Events Scotty Sheffer won Patrick Klay 2 Ben on three wow that is jarringly good cool all right good on you Ben on quick reminder that if you skip through the intro of the show this is your last week to get into the three andone like a one

Andone but you pick three and you can only use them once for The Players Championship and the four majors five events the link is in the description it is legal in 40 or 41 States in DC fully regulated have some fun and also spoiler I think

Uh I know that this week is selection Sunday in the in in in college basketball and I’ve gotten a lot of messages are you going to do a marchmadness video Rick Rick are you GNA do a marchmadness video yes of course it’s the most popular video that I do I

Believe we’re also going to be able to get a bracket on Splash so you might as well go over there you might as well get in the te contest you might as well get into the three and done you might as well get ready because I think we’re

Going to have a bracket contest next week not sure about that but I’m pretty sure all right 7K range boy oh boy oh boy um okay I want to look at Brian Harmon I want to look at a couple of these guys let’s start with Harmon I am probably surprised to see

That he finished 12th last week because he had a Saturday in which he lost four and a half Strokes to the field and it was horrible he lost 3.8 ball strike ball striking he lost another half a stroke in the short game categories it was very uncharacteristic still able to finish

12th I’m impressed by that bounc right back gain Two Strokes the next day so three of the four rounds last week at Bay Hill he gained 2.1 Strokes to the field or more Brian Harmon is an enigma Brian Haron succeeds in a lot of places that you

Don’t expect him to because he does have an elite at least one Elite skill set maybe two maybe one and a half and his Elite skill sets are driving it accurately and putting now I I’ll admit in 2024 he has not done either one of those very well um if we

Go back and look at his 2023 stuff I bet you it’s a lot better uh it is 27th and strokes gain putting accuracy 16th and distance from me Fairway fifth that’s Brian Harmon’s true Baseline and and it is why on some of these difficult setups he can find

Success because playing out of the Fairway is of critical value and putting ends up being of critical value so I’m I’m ready I’m ready to rumble with Brian Harmon at $7,900 I’ve spoken a lot about Adam Scott in the last couple of weeks uh we saw his adjusted fit was huge yes he

Missed the cut last week I don’t care um I am committed to being overweight and or betting Adam Scott uh every start from now or actually from a couple of weeks ago from Riviera it was until the Masters and through the Masters I’ve actually I already have a

Future on them so I don’t have to worry about that but miss the cut at Bay Hill it happens all these good result I mean I’ve spent I’ve spent a ton of oxygen on Adam Scott I don’t I don’t need to continue doing that you you get the point here ailan

Ogo yeah stay off of him you know he’s missed three straight cuts here you don’t want to play a guy like that right why would you course history means so much psych Amano Guillo noted ball Striker now noted putter because he added another three Strokes with the

Flat stick last week he has now gained in all but one event in 2024 on the surfaces he puts he’s got another seven and a half Strokes gained ball striking in his last two starts the results are great fire him up uh there was somebody

Else here oh I wanted to look up Keith Mitchell because he popped on the course fit on the adjusted fit and it’s going to be yeah I mean it’s because of this he is such an unbelievable driver unb I mean he gained five at PGA National he gained

2.7 in Mexico three in Fina it’s it’s ridiculous uh three straight top 20s tell you what the rest of his game is pretty good too around the Green’s a problem but if he loses a half a stroke around the green and gains one and a half putting like you did in Phoenix

That’s fine that’s a good math problem for Keith Mitchell I don’t care about that really good stat profile I think will’ll probably be popular what’s his history here yeah 13th and 35th in his last two that’ll probably be popular what in the world do we do with these

Three Harris English Tom hogi Eric Cole they are 7,800 7,800 7700 Eric Cole is terrifying but outside of I mean two events Farmers which we knew he was going to stink and he did PGA National which I cannot believe he stunk and he did the rest of it is for a

Year has been great he finished 21st last week Tom hogi has quietly quietly played great golf in 2024 let’s do that again let’s go back to since the start of 2024 uh Strokes gain total everybody in this field yeah Tom Hog’s like 15th he’s right below cam young he’s better

Than Tony fow he’s better than Amano gillo and Jason day and Patrick Klay it’s kind of wild isn’t it 33 rounds he’s gaining a one point to look at his ball striking numbers he has gained 1.2 Strokes per round in 2024 on approach including eight total last

Week he’s finished outside the top 20 he’s finished outside the top 18 once in last five starts and it was a T28 he lost four strokes putting last week if he putts like he did the six starts before that he freaking wins the thing he doesn’t do that because Scotty

Ran away with it but he like finishes second is this a hogy spot is it hogy week shout out to my Wawa peeps again course history is not super critical but he does have a 30th 22nd 33rd and third in his last four crap hogy week and then Harris English I mean

The 21st he played much better than that he he just gave it him and Rory gave it away on what was that Sunday um still really like the way Harris English is trending for only 7,800 bucks and then I just whiffed on Jake knp I I I don’t

Know I don’t know I don’t know if it’s nap week or not is he tired did he just get Bay hilled no idea okay the 6K range is very very fun we have Doug gim is $6,800 he has finished inside the top 16 in four in a row did not play B beay

Hill comes in well rested he’s driving it very accurately and has a sixth and a 29th year in the last three years love it um Austin ekro I worry that this is week four in a row but I was impressed I’ll pull him up I was impressed that after the win he

Was a it’s hard for these guys especially on their first win to really kind of figure it out uh struggled in round immediately like get back out there struggled in round one had a great round two had a bad weekend I’m kind of torn on this it’s

Week four but he’s such a good he’s such a good ball Striker and he is accurate off the te and he knows he can contend he knows he can compete this is a big spot for him I worry that it’s week four in a row with with a win in there but I

I don’t think that’s a bad a bad bu spot um we have to look at Lucas Glover I just want to you know I want to continue to Pro this provide this update on Glover every couple of weeks and just check in for myself but for everybody

Else um and if it’s still the same yeah it’s still the same I mean the the the putter which unlocked him last year is not good anymore and was really only good for two weeks I I lied it was good for four weeks Lucas Glover had had a good putter

For four total weeks in the last five years they happen to be a four out of six week period and he cashed two of them in for wins and since that second win he has hemorrhaged on the putting surfaces still using the same Putters using that broomstick lab uh lab golf

Putter same one you know zot Taurus is using and some of those other guys but it’s not working in the same way so I I just want to continue to monitor this because if he I mean if he gains three Strokes again with the putter he’s going

To contend but I there’s little little evidence that that is that that is coming does Andrew Novak cool off does he use the snub from last week as motivation is he able to continue this stretch of three straight top 10 finishes I want to say yes because he

Did have a week off from Phoenix to Mexico and he did continue this great stretch beautiful ball stetch striking numbers he’s gained like 12 Strokes ball striking in his last 12 rounds very good throughout the bag you know he probably should have gotten in last week probably should he

Should have been the 70th man in the field at Bay Hill didn’t he he was not happy about that little fuel for the PJ tour as he goes to as he goes to HQ this week maybe really great numbers very good price uh you know when you look at $6,400 Andrew Novak and

$6,300 uh Lucas Glover those guys are going in separate directions they’re going in very very different directions the 5K range so if you want to open up the top of the board there are a couple of options out there for you the uh Justin low to me is I I like his

Game he he for the most part he gets the most out of his skills and he keeps the ball in front of him he doesn’t get into too much trouble we saw him finish third in Mexico and he played well enough last week he beat over half the field he

Finished he finished 36th uh $5,700 that’s that’s not bad at all the other guys down here uh CT pan looks I think he was dealing with an injury he looks healthy to me again and I think he is healthy again he’s got three straight decent finishes again he keeps the ball

In front of him he’s going to keep it in play he’s not going to overpower any golf course let alone TPC Saw Grass but you can kind of just keep it keep it in play Keep It In The Short Grass Ben Silverman might be your hottest golfer

16th and 13th out of this range you also finish 18th at Sony um again not long he is accurate he has hit a lot of Greens in regulation this year if you’re just looking for somebody to hey make it to the weekend maybe make a run at this

$5,500 is is not a bad option there Nico ETA varia 5400 and I want to actually pull up his stat profile because I think he played in Puerto Rico last week I think I saw his name on that leaderboard yeah he did okay I’ve I like

This kid’s game I’ve seen it in person um he snapped off in one in Puerto Rico last year out of nowhere right he had missed four straight cuts he missed six of seven coming in he snapped off in Puerto Rico and he won and then after

That it was kind of that Michael Kim situation where he he then he just missed every cut he just missed everything until the end of 2023 where you started to see a lot more consistent results don’t get me wrong he is not blowing these fields out of the water

I’m talking about finishes from 25th to 65th right but he’s making more Cuts now in 2024 and his last three specifically he has three top 25 finishes which are much better stat profile results gained on approach two or more in Mexico and at PGA National we don’t get The Strokes

Game breakdown from Puerto Rico but he finished 15th there the only the only day he lost Strokes to the field was was Sunday I think this is not I mean just incredibly talented he he’s um I mean he’s based out of pon pon aidra I mean

Play I mean should be very familiar and playing low bar playing some of the best golf we’ve seen him play I mean probably in his career that that like the win the win was out of nowhere and it was a one-off but I think he could play well this

Week not super comfortable going elsewhere let’s see what the model says so we’re going to run a model again rickun good.com you can put any number of Weights in here that you want any number of rounds time frames etc etc um let’s do strokes gained off the

Tea in a big way right don’t we have to so let’s do strokes gained off the te and I want to get uh you know most guys don’t make huge significant improvements off the te in 12 24 30 so I think we can go kind of long term here

Let’s go 30 off the te for strokes gained off the te last 50 Strokes gained approach I would like to stay a little more recent let’s go 24 rounds for 20 uh then I will also just just to do our own little strokes gain total I’m going to

Put Strokes gain around the green l 50 10 Strokes gain putting last 24 10 I’m going to put 10 on course history which is what I said I would do and then that’s only going to leave us with 20 more this is actually this is fewer variables than I would like to use

I I’ve people say oh Rick you use too many well I’ve got like 180 in here I want to use them I’m going to put the last 20 on hard golf courses in theory this should be a hard Golf Course let’s just see what happens we

Can run more on Wednesday my number one golfer is Scotty sheffler no surprise I can probably model anything and Scotty sheffler is gonna pop up Rory is 2 no surprise Tommy Fleetwood and Justin Rose being three and four is a surprise Tommy lad well Tommy lad gets the um gets a

Good a good boost on hard golf courses so is Justin Rose Hideki five okay spe six Adam Scott seven jt8 ahead of both Patrick Klay and Xander Schley at nine and 10 what else Fowler gets a boost wow Aaron Ry $6,400 he’s 14th Victor 17th at 101 that stinks that’s worrisome ailano gilo

7,426 there’s Keith Mitchell 7500 29th okay well listen we have a lot of work to do this week my newsletter will come out on Tuesday if you haven’t signed up for it 100% free rickun good.com newsletter go sign up for rickun good.com why wouldn’t you and uh go get

In the three and done because it’ll be fun and I think that is all see you guys Wednesday best of luck later