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Players Betting Preview: Can Anyone Stop Scheffler at TPC Sawgrass?
Everyone welcome in bsps golf here for the 2024 Players Championship TPC Saw Grass I think we have to like divorce the fifth major uh best field and golf monitors it’s the fifth signature event of the year like yeah uh I will say and I’m so
Ice cold and one and done maybe I don’t even give you advice later it is a $25 million purse that is the difference still like it’s still a bigger purse than the other Signature Events it’s a bigger purse than any of the majors like you can absolutely get paid here so
There is that there is the prestige um obviously the iconic hole the iconic shots the iconic calls over the years but it’s still like yeah with eight Signature Events um it’s funny how it is driving more of the I don’t know the The Prestige is
Back to where it should be like the the majors everyone’s always excited for a major but now it’s like oh God we finally get RAM and you know I almost I almost said baz I don’t know why djambo I don’t know why I can’t keep those two straight that’s not something
You should mix we don’t get Dean burter no you don’t get burter but but you get Neeman you get D Shambo you get Brookie you get Cam you get Rah like DJ obviously a lot of the big names be Augustus so it does drive a lot of the
The Prestige back to where it should be um I’d love to it sucks because this is a PGA event like that’s what the majors are not governed by the PGA right they can do whatever the hell they want it would be interesting to someday be like all right it’s the players we’re going
To let you know Rah has to come here we have to sort this is I don’t give a [ __ ] about anything else like we just have to sort that part out get Ram here get Brooks here like get get at least the big names like nean should be playing
Everybody who’s in the top 100 who’s eligible in the owgr is here and that is say like there are a bunch of people in the top 100 I know but there’s a lot of people in that who are not eligible so right that part sucks it’s still a great
Tournament still awesome obviously this is kind of the uh the hot stretch here as we are about the master starts on April 11th so we’re short of a short of a month out at this point we are so close to H just golf ASMR like honestly the one of my Fondest
Memories was like finding that stream that one year where they had no announcers and just watching the m for like no no announcers you couldn’t really even hear the golfers you’d hear the shots a little it was very very Zen so pump for that but obviously I’ll
Watch a ton of this uh this weekend this is a great course and it looks like the weather’s gonna be pretty decent yeah heating up down in Florida here over the next couple days I think it was it’s been pretty mild uh heading into the weekends and they’ve had a decent amount
Of rain in the last uh you know month or so but yeah we’re going to get you know mid 80s uh for the most part here uh down in Florida so yeah that’s going to be that’s gonna be to see yeah I tongue and cheek with like the fifth major and
The these are kind of like the things that they’ve used to Brand the events and obviously the shift in professional golf has I think changed that a little bit but there’s a reason that it was where it was previously and part of it is the course does kind of bring in a
Little bit of everyone it is the most iconic Pete die track we have numerous Pete die tracks on tour so probably one of the more uh iconic famous popular successful golf Architects and uh this one is you know built in a swamp for this and I think it’s been a very
Successful you know event and I think more than what PGA had ever had hoped it would be so yeah I mean it’s going to create the drama on the back nine I think is great even 16 17 18 is it makes for you know vantastic finishing stretch
There with you know legit risk reward on 16 everyone knows how iconic 17 is and again it’s the water surrounding it but obviously it’s a very difficult green complex to to maneuver uh and then 18 obviously would just the threat of of water down the side and you know how
Aggressive you want to be on that t-shot depending on what the score looks like didn’t matter last year we had a runaway winner essentially uh Scotty winning by five Strokes which is something that we’re going to have to tackle here kind of becomes a you know what that hell do
We do with Scotty uh and all that’s going on here but uh yeah yeah I mean field pretty loaded uh in terms of like what we can expect basically without the live guys obviously as we touched on there the the factor guy the facto live guys that should uh be here that can’t
Be tiger kind of felt like we were gonna get tiger here previously with his like the way he had talked about his schedule’s not here um but really everyone else that can full field 144 top 65 and ties make it to the weekends and crap ton of money at the
Top yeah um any API thoughts before we move on yeah dude it was different like I don’t I don’t know like I I mean we could just do Scotty right if you want to do Scotty I mean let’s just do Scotty because it it kind of Segways into the
The main narratives around Saw Grass and the narratives around players is that hey it’s not predictive how you did last year I mean so many people have pointed out Scotty won but he’s also had like two really terrible finishes here everybody who’s won seems to have like two or three terrible finishes if
They’re a big name and they’ve played a bunch like it’s not predictive people don’t repeat people don’t even play that well there’s only like two repeat not even repeat like back toback like repeat you won it years later over like the last number of decades it’s tiger and I
Can’t think of the other guy one other fella who have even like won this twice so it’s very hard to do this again which is you know so the narrative drives towards like oh you should never play the defending champ because they don’t play here but the secondary narrative
The one that matters is like if you look who’s winning this tournament who wins this tournament every year I listened uh when I had some time yesterday I listen to Andy lack’s uh weekend podcast um and I mean he pointed out he was he was dancing around it but it it’s
And he you know he mentioned the stroke scanned approach he mentioned just the iron play the ball striking he’s like whoever is the best ball Striker whoever’s playing the best leading into this does well here so it’s funny because it’s it’s Scotty so you’ve got very you got the very um you know
Conflicting forces facing your so yeah if you watched any of the weekend it was it was like oh you know there’s memes oh the Happy Gilmore oh Scotty learned how to putt oh look what happens if he’s not losing five Strokes in the green like obviously like he could not win for a
Full Year from like last year’s you know whatever his final win was last year this I mean yeah there was I think something in the swing season that was an all like you know he was talking about like he had won that and it didn’t count for everyone’s narrative but yeah
It’s it’s it definitely is yeah we we would still acknowledge like well golf is it’s very hard to win a tournament no matter how good you are like he’s still probably the best player in the world so like I’m kind of torn and just like I
Don’t know how you don’t play him here with if you’re you know obviously DFS is a different Beast with ownership betting the numbers going to suck and trying to find a way for him to maybe bump that price up parlay him with uh your favorite you know ACC future whatever
You want I was gonna hit you up yesterday because I was looking to get ways to get Scotty to 10 or something I’m like all right Andy who’s like a tournament lock or something that I need to be like doing something with or you know like the Scotty double with like
You know here and Augusta or something like that like what do what are we to do to get this to be a palatable price like I don’t know I was I talked to feberg about this a little bit yesterday too because I was curious what his thoughts
Were and like how do we approach this week and we’ll uh sometimes talk you know before we meet here on Tuesdays just to get your thought on his thoughts on the card um you know which we used to have him here in the past and I enjoyed
That process but like I don’t want to be a prisoner of the moment I think we are like we fighting against that at times um it felt different last week at Bay Hill everyone struggled everyone went on the weekend basically that was in contention and fell off and then on
Sunday it was even worse and even more dramatic and he went out and fired a 66 um and there were two things that you touched on there too like some folks instantly like rule out two things you know like we want form until you win now
Now we don’t want your form so people sometimes are quick to rule out the previous week’s winner and or the defending chant for this event Scotty has both of those uh so that makes a little bit harder double negative like I’m playing them I’m just I’m just gonna
I’m gonna have a bet on there where at least if he wins uh at least breaks even for my other bets like I’m no longer gonna donate against this guy when he’s playing as well and these are easier greens to putt on this is the overseed
Is gonna make these you know it’s just it’s like the indoor putting greens man this is carpet like if he’s if he throwing darts and his putter is actually working a little bit he’s going to have an easier time here he’s playing so well should probably be four to one
Whatever five it’s not like he’s always been a terrible putter this is a like a a golf prodigy in a lot of ways all the way through coming up he was like the guy one of the guys he won at every level he’s been good he’s been in a
Little bit of a rut uh putting if you play the game putting more than anything is like a confidence Factor when you’re standing over that ball do you believe that you have a shot to make it in are you worried about even from 15 feet if it’s a lag putt because you’re worried
About the comebacker like there’s so many things here that are like all right yeah all of a sudden we want to react to like one good putting week but like maybe I don’t want to overreact to like uh a bad you know calendar year or so of
Putting too so I don’t know you mentioned too like not only do we not get repeat winners here Ron mentioned in his preview it’s been 20 years since the defending champ at TBC Saw Grass finished inside the top 10 the following year so we’re asking him to do something
That just is not really done but like we also had something last week that had never been done either I can’t I couldn’t believe this this the first time last week in the shot link era that a golfer ever finished top 12 in every Strokes game metric for the week ever
This is what like we’re that we’re going back to like 06 we have some like data back to like it’s ever which is really wild you got to full under last week I know you wonder you wonder I’m I’m sure people have gone and done this I wonder
What some of the the tiger like 01 like with some of those round I I guarantee it but I mean this is still like this tiger yeah yeah this like a 20-year sample of stuff where it’s like it was quite the and I had s and you just felt
Helpless like right Williams alator went out and played pretty good golf this weekend but he went up it’s like you know I’ve seen this this happened the other day in the the conference basketball tournament Weber Weber State great team one of the best teams in the
Big Sky they went up against the lower seed the other seed didn’t miss like they just they they were a decent team but they they were dogs you just feel helpless when the other team just can’t miss like people were making the same kind of jokes like they don’t shoot this
Well and like shoot around an open gym you know this is this is uh the kind of stuff that just kills you because you you weren’t on the wrong side altogether but sometimes you come up against something like this and obviously with Scotty it’s it’s always lurking there
And that’s why I’m just gonna just not gonna not gonna fight it at tracks like this because it isn’t you know it is a large field but this isn’t a a field where or excuse me a course where you can get lucky and oh you know I just I
Puted well this week and you know I I lucked out in a few spots like you not only have to be so accurate off the tea and with your second shot like you do need to not just be you know Finding proximity you need to find the right
Part of the green after you find the right part of the Fairway like it really does separate wheat from chaf like it it’s probably another week where if Scotty Doesn’t win it feels like it is going to be someone near the top of the board either way because of how this
Course plays and yeah let’s uh let’s talk a little Saw Grass I know what you have in your notes P die is uh sick [ __ ] yeah I think this is a uh you know more so than than any of them and I think there are some like correlated other P diey tracks there’s
Some other correlated courses out there that maybe aren’t die designs I guess you could say but definitely positional golf we are also in Florida so we naturally have a ton of water we have a ton of bunkers uh you know we have some like you know wastelands some like borderline uh
You know Mangrove type jungle stuff where like it’s in play it’s very much a positional golf course you have to put yourself in position off the tea um not just in the Fairway but in the right side of the Fairway to make sure that you give yourself a chance uh to hold
The greens and they are going to be fast like you mentioned they are pure but they are quick um so that’s why we have seen some like we haven’t seen a lot of like debut uh winners here or guys that have come and and had a ton of success
The first time out to because this a unique track to kind of navigate the first time through but like it’s kind of hard to model it’s a and that kind of is why it’s like the Scotty thing we go back to that too it’s like all right
This is a a place where of course history hasn’t mattered it’s a place where you need everything it’s not predictable but like just give me the guy that’s the best of the most predictable stuff that makes it feel like the the best way to approach it because that’s just kind of it it’s
Really really hard when we want to like hone in on stats or you know different filters in the The Rabbit Hole to kind of like hone in on what to do this week it’s really hard because you kind of need the whole thing and you like you
Can talk yourself into like 15 different filters and what are you weighing that matters the most but I do think we’ve seen recent form leading up to the event from a ball striking standpoint be the most predictive of anything and again it’s another like bright glowing signal
That is like Scotty shuer Scotty shuer Scotty sheffler like if you want to go outside of Scotty this week I feel like you need to go to just like with yeah like go to the without markets uh they’re mostly like right now they’re like without Rory and Scotty which is
Fine um but like it’s it’s probably that’s probably what I would do if I’m looking to bet uh without Scotty this week so yeah I mean look you need all of it here uh this these are po trivialis screens they’re fast um they’re G to
Play firm you’re GNA have a lot of less than driver because of the force layups so the average driving distance is significantly lower uh there’s some you know people that’ll tell you it and it has increased a little bit with the move from May to March uh which has changed
Things a little bit here and we have had some rain this season so we do have a little bit of that here where like the fair a little B more re I wonder how thick that rough is now that it’s been because it’s it’s weird to like you know
People often think about rough as just height you know but like it’s a plant you know heavy good good watering good conditions make it just thicker and Lusher too and this is nasty like you have to have some Precision off the te so that you can have Precision with your
Second shot and find the right you know a lot of them describe it as quadrants of the screen finding that right and then on the on top of that the greens are quick they’re you know they’re firm and obviously we did get some rain so maybe they’ll be a little softer to
Start which will be fun if it gets tougher is the the tournament continues and then obviously there’s a bunch of danger water danger there’s H one hole that people might uh think of you know off the top of their head for that I mean but there’s a bunch of that there’s
A bunch of spots where you’re kind of forced to hit towards the danger because that’s what you need to do especially if you want to compete so it’s it’s fun because it’s not all like risk reward it’s all just like Risk yeah yeah I mean
Water in play like legit in play on 17 of the 18 holes so um and that is the die thing too right you and you read some of the player quotes and Ron’s got a bunch in his preview up on the site right now like the P die stuff from a
Visual off the te standpoint is here’s the really clear danger it’s inviting you to hit to the opposite side of it but really positionally where you want to be for your second shot is coming from the angle of where the danger is so like yeah you want to avoid it off the
Tea but if you don’t take it on a little bit you’re not really set up to score at all um and that gets really really tricky so that is some of the The Genius of the layout here whereas you know why it is the event that it is is uh
Historically even without the uh you know fifth major moniker anymore there are some some interesting things too yeah Ron Notes too and like the shift back in 2019 from May to March like it’s playing harder there’s some stats that really don’t matter so like really
Taking in a lot of pre 20109 data uh it’s probably a little bit of a fullon you probably should be looking a little bit more of you know anything that could be predictable sticky statistically in the last five years or so I think is probably best approach and we didn’t
Even have one of the events we had one round uh obviously back in 2020 this is the uh Co event that got stopped so pretty small sample but also also a good point not going far too too far back because when they did play this in May
Is yeah it was that it’s a different Agronomy and the course played obviously differently so don’t look too far back and we said maybe don’t even look last year don’t look back at all because uh success has not been predictive maybe you should be looking for guys who
Played terrible here who were about to pop their good round and then yes obviously the Pete di stuff with the just all the little details that he puts in and I think I do this I probably do this every year because it’s this course but like we just had International
Women’s day Shout Out Alice Dy his wife who’s was like there’s reports I mean from everyone she was the one who decided to put the island green in that was her suggestion because he was taking get out a bunch of dirt to make like you know how all these courses they have the
Mounds so you know once we started having more Spectators you had to build areas for spectators to view the golf from so they were moving all the dirt and and she wanted to put the island green in because she was sicker she was way sicker to Peach want a terrible golf
Not terrible like terribly hard hes so Shout Out Alice I think they’re both passed they gotta be if not they both be like well into their 90s yeah um the field like we mentioned everybody except the live guys they’re all here I don’t know what else you can
Say about the field it’s everyone it’s everyone who’s everyone that isn’t playing on live like this is the creme de creme this is a major level field almost so it’s going to be tough it’s gonna be tough to look too far down the board honestly like you have to find a
Guy who you really believe is ascending quickly and a lot of those guys are priced you know not too far down the board anyway like a abber is OAR 35 to one yeah Oar I still want to see the a old Bears 35 to one and then I
Mean kind of uh the rest like Min mle you want to go 65 to one here where M was in that final group with Scotty last year and it was over to Quick uh like by the third Hole uh there was really it was it was dunzo folded like a cheap
Shirt uh just you know this and that’s what this golf course can do and it’s he has separated himself on the odds board uh basically for the most part 550 uh five in some spots last week we basically had a Rory and Scotty tier we basically now have two separate tiers
With Scotty sub six Rory’s by himself around 12 to 14 and then you have a massive tier uh basically you know 20 to say 35 uh maybe 40 depending on the books there’s some in prices and you know it’s a and a lot of those guys are
A little bit longer than they typically are uh which makes it appealing because you have to I mean it’s the hold on golf allr markets are a unique thing anyway it’s not like they’re getting pushed because of Scotty but a little bit there’s a little bit of like some of
These guys are a little longer odds wise because Scotty has continued to separate himself so know that’s why I said it’s a maybe without Scotty week makes a ton of sense if you’re looking to just you know fade it and you don’t actually want to
Fade it uh that you know you take a little bit of a shorter number say you know 20s on a guy that is you know low 30s or something like that if you want to kind of shop in the next Group which makes a ton of sense you know unless you
Want to lay uh on Scotty at 550 which I don’t think is a bad thing I’m gonna do it I know right so it’s like it’s you know depends on how you you know allocate funds or what you want to like it’s just is it’s a unique week
And you’re just G to Hate Yourself pretty quick right if if the Mallet putter change is an actual thing uh you’re GNA we’re probably going to know pretty quick yeah you know again he’s been terrible for stretches putting and Always In Contention Always In Contention we don’t need thing he
Doesn’t need four great rounds of putting like two bad ones one average one and one good one will probably win the tournament if the rest of his game is as advertised he made his last 23 putts inside 15 feet last week that’s insane he’s not going to do that again
But again we’ve always said field average putting and it’s kind of lights out because we’re looking at a Tiger Woods esque ball Striker I looked at it this morning I tweeted it out if you look at the last calendar year from a Strokes gain T to Green standpoint again
Most sticky stat and we can’t get off of Scotty and it’s hard to he is gained Strokes 76 round sample he has gained Strokes T to Green 93.55% of his rounds the next closest guy no one else is in the 80s next closest guy is Corey Connors at 78 and change the Delta
Between Scotty and Connors is the same as Connor’s and number 40 Grayson Sig so we are talking about some historic ball striking stuff and now uh yeah I don’t know it’s kind of terrifying so yeah I mean I don’t know how to not talk about
Him where I don’t know how to run a model where he’s not number one you just have to make a yes no decision on what to do with it this week and we can get into that we can build start building some models here on yeah the
Rabbit hole talk talk a few key stats before we pull up the rabbit hole to uh model them out I don’t know what you what’s high on your list obviously we have Ron from the preview but it is probably just you know SEC it’s a second
Shot course he said in the most used golf betting cliche but it is you do have to have the it’s it’s probably approach first and then accuracy off the te and then and then everything else I me it’s everything else I know people have brought up par five scoring you do
Need to catch these par fives properly you do need a little little around the green because like you said these uh even even the best players in these the best iron players are not gonna catch all these greens like they’re just they’re hard there’s gonna be a lot of
200 plus approach so it’s gonna be hard to you know land on these small greens and and hold them you are going to have to be decent around the green with a little bit of scrambling and then I don’t know I look at putting at all really it’s not it’s not like Bermuda
Putting we’re looking at you know this o these overseed greens essentially like maybe just overall putting if you want to do anything and then like Ryan has on the screen there uh we’re still running the Vivid picks so two things the prices are going up soon we kept prices low
Because we you know we were still a work in progress we’re obviously still a work in progress but I’m very happy where the tools are at now especially the rabbit hole um going to have to get closer to Industry average instead of being so incredibly cheap all the time uh so it’s
Not a bad time to sign up that said we’re still letting you do it for five bucks if you’re in a vivid pick State it’s a pick them game Ryan puts out an article every week with some entries for this if you want to play literally deposit five bucks play five bucks we’ll
Send you a promo code you can get $199 bets’s golf yearly subscription for five bones that’s it I mean you can you can deposit more if you like playing the pick them games if you want to get involved if you think you’re able to find some edges in these things they’ll
Deposit match you up to 250 bucks you can get a bunch of free money from them as well when you sign up you still get the promo code you deposit five you deposit 5,000 will still send you the same promo code you get a free essentially a free year it’s five bucks
That’s a that’s a double mocha Chino latte I I have a I have a curg I make my own coffee so uh the link to this is in the show notes the link to this is in the YouTube it’s right on the front page of psurs golf if you have any questions
About this DM us if you’re not in one of these states we have had people say can I go across the border this weekend to visit my in-laws sign up in one of these states and get yeah sure you can that’s a nice little loophole if you’re if
You’re a clever little rabbit and uh if you aren’t near any of these and you’re never going to be still would uh you know love to hear from you in the DMS we can probably get you a promo code to get you a little better deal so hit us up on
The Twitter machine if you have uh if you have that sort of issue you’re not in a PRI price pick uh Vivid pick States we’re have to clip that part keep Vivid L all all the pick them games are pretty fun um but yeah uh key stats I think we
Pretty much nailed it down let’s let’s put them in the rabbit hole up with the model decide who’s good and I don’t should we should we go in this is terrible scientific process should I go in try to make it so Scotty’s not first no he’s just gonna be like I said
We just gotta deal with it he’s just gonna be first and it’s almost like a fun exercise what can we do B it’s not fair just like oh we did an all putting model Andy I don’t know that we can like I think that’s what we would have to do we would have
To do something that’s just like putting and not even short game because it’s around the green is is Bonkers as well so yeah uh if you are seeing the rabbit hole here with us for the first time it is a very very very easy to use uh customizable stat database that allows
You to look at different statistical views uh filter them by all sorts of conditions uh to I think tell you a pretty good story on how to fill out a betting card or to lead to a DFS player pool build um again not the answers to
The test but I think a a great indicator in uh where you would want to start your handicap research this week and continue to to go from there um we have a lot of different ways to do it we default here to The Strokes gain view you click on
This button you can see all the different ones here we’re going to get into some of these conditions this is a overwhelming tab uh you can kind of see here there are a ton of ways for you to chop up this data we do have a new addition to the conditions which excited
About this week and I think will play a factor we’ll wait and see now we are still obviously about 48 hours out uh from tea time here but wind is a issue obviously in Florida and uh probably more prominent at this time of year versus where we are historically in May
In the previous iterations of this event too so you do have some of these early spring winds uh we have wind data here uh that has been uh classified for you and something you can now add to your rabbit hole research which we are uh pretty pretty excited about too so you
Can also download any of these little buckets into a CSV if you want to chop up a bunch of different models you can do that you can click into this tab as well to view our expert rankings you want to see what Andy lack from inside
Golf podcast is doing uh Matt venzi as well uh who does uh golf his uh tap in podcast is out there too you want to see his model what Andy and I are doing Ron PJ Sports 101 click on this tab and you can look at our models as well see here
You have some old models but you see I built one here uh that’s up there you can see some other stuff that’s in there too which will get cleaned up for you but yeah you can go and see what we’re doing what stats did we add that maybe
You weren’t considering uh that you want to go back in and out to your model and if if you’re looking if if this is something you’re you know let’s say you subscribe or you have just subscribed if you’re looking for you know any guidance just follow Ron on Twitter PGA splitz
101 he’s gonna post a 100 things a week and just little you know not everything is a model you need to build and you know look at oh who’s number one that’s who I’m betting a lot of it is just like trying to find little nuggets who struggled in certain subsets like he
Just tweeted something out a little bit ago where he put four screenshots and him you know digging down into some of these splits he did you know stroke scanned off the T but he split it by know distance from the edge of the Fairway on courses where it’s difficult
Off the te with a high missed Fairway penalty so he got really granular on one you know just picking out a few different uh filters like that he did you know like ball striking on difficult you know conditions for ball striking with high water dangers so the more
Filters you add obviously the the smaller the sample get so that’s why he’s you know he’s not mixing these all into one for the most part he’s doing it separately you know like looking at you know you can just look at putting if you want to just look at the putting on only
Poet trivialis screens like this with you know the overseed it’s you know it’s something you can look at you don’t have to put it in your mixed condition Model A lot of it is just you know pulling those splits up and looking at who’s doing well or who’s struggling in
Certain conditions uh on certain courses and certain types of play so I know what do you want to start with to build our model for the day yeah touch on a couple things there real quick just you can mess around with the time frame here going back to last five years and then
There’s also the slide bar here that allows you to manipulate the rounds played too so those things kind of work in conjunction to make sure that you’re getting yourself a a sample size that makes a ton of sense you have the number of rounds that are captured for each
Golfer in the current samp size that you have you have in parenthesis the shot link data rounds because obviously especially these guys that play in the swing season and you get some of these alt field events some of these uh you know even you know we have you know
Places like Farmers that you know you don’t have you know the North and the South course don’t have shotlink data so that just kind of messes around with it stuff too there’s also one view which is awesome to Andy’s point is the floor ceiling view uh you’re not able to
Currently add anything there to the uh to your rabbit hole model but this is actually gives you ual data on spiked weeks uh I think the best use case is putting because we often hear about that like Elite ball Strikers but how often do they have Spike putting weeks ironic
That Luke list Pops to the top here you can look at this through any condition as well but like how often does someone actually gain Strokes putting how often does someone gain two three four strokes putting uh versus actually just you know hypothetically saying the words Spike
Putting week you could actually back it up here with data which I think is awesome yeah do just do the two plus pull that up or sort by yeah uh we’ll look we’ll go back further let’s look the last uh last 50 rounds or so mess around guys that are gaining uh
At least two strokes or how often they gain uh two strokes pting the field so uh good Putters uh Chan Kim Taylor Montgomery minw Le Matt Wallace Windam Clark are your top five and the only guys that are gaining uh at least two strokes a quarter of the time you see
How infrequently Happ look at yeah and look at windham’s numbers I mean windham’s awesome butter I mean yeah I mean it’s just crazy though to see the the sea of green and class I mean even some of the guys who’ve had a bunch of you know more than above average two two
Plus Strokes for a round three plus Dylan woo Matt Wallace obviously there we go Billy horel horel likes these uh these poetry scens CL yeah windham’s up there too uh but also I also love to see the inverse of these right so like JJ spawn I mean the feno stuff is something
We can get to uh the fow has been worse than again actually worse than Cory Connor uh I mean when you think of like Elite ball Strikers in Pho has been pristine ball striking for the last calendar year and the putter is just a absolute unmitigated disaster currently
Uh so you know these are interesting to see if other guys like see who’s one here another flusher Tia green but gets really uh caught up and has a hard time I mean basically look you’re telling you here he’s losing Strokes putting 64 and a half percent of the time which is a
Really tough pill to swallow so yeah um again a unique tool yeah let’s go back let’s go back to the top um anchor stats I think we can get into a spot and I think it matters here a lot Andy we’re talking about like recent form I think
We can maybe look at like small sample but who’s playing well right now in 2024 yeah I kind of want to just look at yeah from so this will just this will sort from January on so starting in Hawaii you G have some smaller samples for a
Few guys but and you can go here to this minimum round feature you can add you want to like just have a threshold of you know getting yourself say you know at least 12 rounds from someone so you you kind of filter out some of the noise
Some showed up to Florida and played well for one week yeah yeah uh so just look at the last since the calendar switched Strokes gain total in this field uh hey look Scotty shuffler um you know Pavan has been really wild you look at his makeup on the DP World Tour this
Has not been coming I I don’t understand it but it is what it is uh Doug gim Xander Schley Shane Lowry your top five uh you can see some other guys that have been very competitive and in the mix here some interesting names you can do
Total you can do Tia green again I think looking at the inverse uh tells a story as well like matchup standpoint or some other stuff you want to kind of look at the guys to Target here um again here’s the fenal thing right fow second uh TAA
Green in the calendar year 130th in a 144 man field in Strokes gain putting uh in the around the green has not been much better but again look at this flushing it uh T to Green which is interesting too so um yeah what you
Going to do total T to Green I the model that I did I did both I did both Strokes gain total and strokes G Tina Green in 2024 is kind of my anchor stats let’s rip let’s rip with t green uh all you need to do is click the
Little plus button there uh under the stats you can actually hover over the stat and it tells you what the actual stat is if it’s new to you and you’re new to doing this you can add a description if you’d like um you don’t
Have to but again for your own sake uh I think it is it’s useful depending on uh if you get into a lot of like jokes gain total with different filters I think once you get in there and understanding how you’re weighing things I think it
Matters so uh anything else you want to do from an anchoring standpoint no let’s just stick with the one and kind of move on from there we’re gonna have to get granular because like I said it’s it’s basically you know we’re looking for whose ball struck very
Well over the last kind of month or so let’s stay in Te green or we’ll I’m sorry we’ll stay in Strokes gain we’ll get some these we could do something yeah we could do something a little more more uh specific with like greens and regulation or you know long iron shots
Something like that looking at it at you know I don’t so the winner the winner here is going to be like 12 13 14 under right it’s not the most difficult scoring conditions I don’t know what if you were to sort this out by like I’m looking for something that’s
Corollary for greens and regulation do you go water Danger you go tough off the te do you go TI you know just courses with tall rough that’s the thing I’m saying at the top it’s so hard because you can really make so many I think there’s a lot of
Like smart applications for all of these filters this week it just becomes a matter of well that’s the thing you could you could just pick out a bunch of comp courses as well yeah I would say that scoring conditions are difficult because I mean look we six
Under uh was you know top 20 so like you know you you you needed to mat matama was solo fifth at at nine under Scotty won by five and got to 17 but you know he was clear there’s only three other guys that are in double digits so it’s
Not like uh you know pretty unusual comparatively it was just like last week I would consider that difficult scoring conditions wam was at 10 he was the only other guy besides Scotty and in double digits so you know that was a a fairly difficult scoring condition week where
You know you were four under was you know T8 so um that’s I think that’s where we’re at here a little bit so again something you could do is literally you just take out you could do difficult and very difficult you kind of just make sure you’re ruling out some of
The easier scoring conditions I think that that’s viable um you know if you wanted to do something field strengthwise you could do that as well it’s not something that I love um I think some of these you know the water danger this is obviously a high water
Danger I’m not a big bunker guy because I think it’s I think a little statistically noisy but this is obviously place with high bunkers uh again a ton of ways you can again in event season and capture Florida data uh a ton of different ways to do it this
Week but um maybe we do something with just like scoring conditions being difficult very difficult capture some of that again you can put in a bunch of these like Andy mentioned be careful you’re gonna have to mess with the sample size because you’re going to get pretty statistically noisy when you do
So uh this is tells you the filters here that we picked looking at the last 12 months last 5050 rounds we’re not going to get that sample but we’re getting I think a decent sample the last 12 months do you want to go back a little bit
Further yeah go 18 or two yeah let’s see if we can get closer to 50 for some of these guys we can gain total we’re getting most of the field uh with a 12 round cap of guys that have played well in difficult and very difficult scoring
Conditions um and this is you know the top of the board here makes sense Scotty Rory fits uh hom h rounds out your top five uh you have Xander zot torus Lowry cam young and Tommy rounding out your top 10 some other guys just off the cuff
Here that make again a ton of sense um we’ll add that here difficults note for self all right let’s get into some of the uh more get off The Strokes gains and we’ll get into some of the uh off the tea stuff and then some approach
Stuff here as well for sake of time because you know we did 45 minutes on Scotty shuffler so he deserved it he earned good he’s loved we uh we’re pro Scotty Pro good golf off the te is hard man like I I think there are a ton of ways
To do it this week we’ve seen distance increase a little bit like I said but there are so many forced layups so you can go just with the condition of less than driver you can go less than driver and then start to bang out some of these
Other ones um in terms of like total driving which I think matters which just captures a little bit of the accuracy that I think is important this week but also captures some of the distance that’s important good drive percentage uh in case you miss the
Fairways uh what do you want to do I I think we should do something with L than driver because we do have a a ton of that this week yeah I’m fine with that it’s it’s it’s it’s a weird less than driver but still you’re going to see a ton of it
Regardless just based on the the setup of the course yep again you can go in here and look uh pretty cool that’s the thing so there’s so many good golfers here where they can pull out a three or a you know a two iron and hit it farther than I hit my
Driver Yeah by by a lot by a lot yeah um you we’re driving distance down almost seven and a half yards over the tour average uh here last year but that’s actually increased um you know accuracy is actually believe it or not right around field average but that’s because
Of less than driver piece that’s not guys just luckily Landing it into these like massive Fairways it’s guys clubbing down um there is a decent uh you know missed Fairway penalty uh you can again these Fairway accuracy missed Fairway penalty rough penalties I think are
Worthwhile as well uh for you to look at let’s just look at some of the off the te less than driver stuff from a Strokes gained standpoints uh some pretty good drivers um which make some sense do you have a a preference off The Strokes SC off the te
Or total driving probably I mean just accuracy here good drivve gained okay I’d rather have accuracy here than like total driving because I don’t know if I want to include distance as much okay I like distance from the edge of the Fairway now again this is
The average distance in let’s do a fun one yeah I put this in mind because I I think this is a again like this tells a better story I I always talked about if you’ve listened or watched before um this is a point that I like to D drive
Home but again this is a unique stat that we have that you cannot model anywhere else and I think it’s a the application for it this week I think makes a ton of sense driving accuracy is binary it is a yes no stat yes or no
Were you on did it come to rest in the Fairway uh distance from the edge of the Fairway tells you like if you missed yeah this is better um you know when you are you missing and spraying it by a ton uh that’s that’s important or you like
This tells me because we need positional Golf and to be able to control it I think that matters a ton this week so we’ll add distance from the edge of the Fairway and again I think this is also off less than driver I think there are u
A lot of different ways that you can like wisely attack off the te this week I would probably put more than than that in if I was making uh my model which I did so approach what do you want to do I mean we already we already looked
At TD green coming in so you don’t want to go too heavy here just like finding greens um going for green proximity yes or yards yes I don’t know I I I hate using proximity but yeah it’s kind of a proximity week uh Ron had some of this and he
Breaks down comparatively uh overall proximity uh at Saw Grass up relative uh 18 .7% more difficult at Saw Grass than tour average same thing Fairway proximity as well you find yourself a little bit further away from the whole then a tour average obviously gaining Strokes from an approach standpoint a
Little bit more difficult too so again Ron’s preview gives you stuff that you will not find anywhere else super helpful and then there’s a list of uh statistics that he advises that you take a look at this week in in terms of uh in terms of modeling so greens and red
Pretty standard which is interesting too I’m not a big proximity guy either if I would do anything else here I would probably want to do just Strokes GED approach but I think if you think that we have enough of it based off of our T green and strokes gain total uh from
2024 I’m okay with that too but right now we don’t have a lot believe or not this is I’m like Hey we’re gonna have a million things this week and we don’t so far we got three yeah I feel like it doesn’t always have to be five or six things true just
Let’s just sprinkle in a little around the grp some scrambling setting along those lines and after this and I think we’re fine do anything scoring wise bogey avoidance you want to avoid the big numbers if I were doing scoring I might just do par five birar betters okay
Whereas I’m approach you you know I’m looking for for people who are you know you gota you got to kind of find it on the par fives that’s so true everywhere but sure I mean these are scorable it isn’t going to be you know a lows scoring SLO Fest or excuse me a
High high scores you do need to probably get to you know double digits under to compete all right so we you want to do average or birdie rate just do birdie rate okay I’m gonna put in bogey avoidance um okay because I think that that works to so we get part five
Scoring bird you’re better and then overall both avoidance do you want to look at po trivala putting stats should we just look at it um we don’t have to add it if you don’t want to we can take a we can take quick Gander let’s take a
Let’s take it for a spin again these are not if your stat model is telling you that these are POA uh putting surfaces um again in the show notes DM us you can get access to the uh to the rabbit hole so you can actually uh tell yourself an
Accurate story of what’s going on here these are po trivialis not POA very very very very different and not Bermuda because we’re in the Southeast it’s uh it’s po trivialis so uh last two years 50 rounds we’re not getting quite there but for the most part these guys are
Getting around 30 rounds which I think is uh is decent again we still have the 12 round sample on there uh Sammy Burns Taylor Montgomery Sam Ryder Chad Ramy Matt coocher Troy Mar good Putters uh for the most part shocker but again it is interesting to see um who is uh
Performing well here uh if I added it I’d add a very small percentage so I don’t even think that I really want it yeah I’m fine leaving I’m fine leaving it out okay again you’re can stay in like The Strokes gains section uh or you know anything ball striking
Wise and filter by a ton of different conditions here guys uh for the sake of the show we’re not going to build all those out because like these are very fast greens uh they’re going to be increasingly firm as the weekend progresses um um you you have a ton of a
High water D danger absolutely should probably be captured somewhere in some shape or form if you want to look at just Pete die tracks you can go in here and look at Strokes gain Pete die over the last couple years there are some correl courses Ron and I will actually
Handbuilt and added the courses uh which you can do as well uh gaining off the te is difficult Fairway accuracy all these things are are very difficult you want to add wind that’s in here as well uh as you said you can go into actually you
Want to look at just sof grass history go in actually courses and just look at TBC saw grass or you can hand select a bunch of individual courses as well and see who performs well on those courses so lots of different ways to go about it
For the sake of the show we’ll build what we have built here see what we get uh we got six stats so not bad uh this is uh Andy and N beding Saw Grass all right what do we want to do GNA go give
A ton of weight to yeah like 30 30% man Jack it up difficult conditions 20 yeah I think we should go heavy there that’s half yeah that’s half the model oh and then I like to start from the bottom like which is the least like distance from The Edge should be light
That’s that’s a pretty granular one but it’s important though you know what I mean like we do really need accuracy you look at these some of these randos that have competed here uh that are just like in the mix like you have to be in the
Fairway uh is very hard to kick around here if you were not I know I know but it’s including such a sample of that’s that’s the tough part is like this is a good stat but it’s hard to get a good sample because you’re looking at all courses so you’re looking at courses
Where guys are bombing away because they don’t care if they’re in the rough yeah that’s what makes that’s what makes it tough with those well it is it is does have the filter of less than driver so we are filtering true a little little better I guess yeah uh leaves us with
40 it’s still still approach being top out of that 201010 201010 sold we actually have something coming very soon well this will do the math for you uh so you don’t have to uh make sure I know why we didn’t think of that to start yeah maybe I maybe I did
Write it down resting our morals player Pages coming soon folks going to blow your mind tournament Pages soon a lot of cool stuff um some more betting tools matchup tools uh yeah it’s we have pre-tournament projections we’re gonna have in tournament live projections all the stuff is uh is coming and continuing
To be worked on uh we are we want to make this your One-Stop shop for all that you need here you can uh save as many of these bad boys as you would like see you can scroll down here uh saving a ton of stuff again we’re working on the
Math in the back to make sure you can basically have a Evergreen rolling model you want to just run rolling form approach rolling off the te uh you be able to save that model and rerun it regardless of the field for the week so that should be updated in coming in the
Near future as well so let’s save and generate a model see what we get see who is at the top Corey Connor he’s gonna be always gonna be Cory Conor top five because we didn’t do putting we didn’t do fourth Cory Conor’s number four weird and feno
Obviously because again we I talked you out using putting so feno’s gonna be up there Scotty special sander Olympic champion Doug gim Doug gim is not someone I’ll probably bet on to win this tournament I look Doug gim top 40 sure Chris Chris Kirk at six morawa seven uh Sugar Shane Lowry playing
Pretty good golf right now especially if we throw out Sundays all the time number eight Tom hogi wiel Taurus Aaron Ry Max Homa rounding out the top 12 kind of checks out yep I’m good with that that makes a ton of sense Austin eot obvious buoyed by a pretty good week
Couple weeks ago Keegan 15th Rory Rory down at 16th yeah I mean look he’s not been in this year Tia green uh has just been kind of okay um and the approach stuff hasn’t been precise you know there’s ball striking you know the week prior at uh the Cog uh
Was pretty electric he just couldn’t make a putt and then you know I thought we might have a little bit of a run he got himself in position with a really solid Saturday afternoon to uh put himself in the mix and then the field kind of came back to him but again just
Started it off so poorly on Sunday and I thought would be you know a guy that could maybe Chase but just it became evident pretty quickly that he was not in position to do so so yeah that’s uh has not been great yeah I mean this top
30 or so makes a ton of sense so uh have you bet anyone yet uh Scotty Sheffer okay I I’ve heard about him that’s that’s the card so far um I’m I’m curious about Hideki at like 40 okay uh he does this thing where he’s always like injured but then comes like people
Who B against him look like absolute [ __ ] like he I just I’ve quit doing it because we we have this where it’s either oh he’s super injured he’s pulling out or oh no he I don’t know if there’s like some Lost in Translation where he’s like I got a little crick in
My neck and it comes out it’s like oh he’s like three vertebrae cracked might never walk again you know that that’s what’s getting translated somehow because it was like oh he’s he couldn’t play the proam he comes out and shoots it’s like a what was like four five
Under I mean he had a very good round one so he’s playing good golf matuyama is on the short list so far yeah Scotty’s the only bet I have I have to fill out the card to find some guys who I think you know can can Spike with the uh the
Approach shot nki is definitely there with the ball striking Sanders 20 to one I don’t think you’ve ever won money betting than Xander but obviously under consideration Lowry 35 to1 that’s kind of my short list right now I bet some weekend numbers when uh some of the
Early uh odds were floated do you bet Harmon with the rest of the world bet everybody bet Harmon yeah it’s like well this is a huge number 150 is just a joke um it’s a guy like I mean comparatively too on the board there was a bunch of guys at 110
12 that like do not sniff Sunday PM tea times uh Matt Haron or Brian Haron uh shout to Matt Haron Brian Haron won the Open Championship so uh he’s pretty good and you know had a nice little weekend again a lot of guys fell off a little
Bit so yeah Brian Harman at 150 was a a play for me um you know some people in the chat didn’t love it but like I’m just gonna bet Keegan at triple digits uh like in a lot of weeks because I he’s way better than that and like it’s not a
50 on keegs I know that I’m a Keegan sucker but like he’s played well here he’s I think a really good fit for this course ball striking is pretty uh really good consistently whereas he in this model I think he’s just outside right around he’s 15th I mean look Strokes
Gain total so far this year he’s 13th um distance from the edge of the Fairway 20th It’s just sometimes the pting can be a little bit wonky and it’s been better with the aim point but Keegan I’m going to play at 100 I also took a opening 65 on Russell
Which again I thought it was going to be shorter than 50 for the most part uh and so they’re ended up being a 75 right away and then that went away look that’s where we’re at now there’s nothing better in the market than a 50 on Russell Henley so theoretically I was
Correct uh is 36 on Chris um so getting a 65 on on him uh feels pretty good so I don’t think I’m going to do anything else like a lot of guys that I really like guys I went to the well on last week the kind of the Triad of havin
Zalot torus and Max hom are price nice those are guys I like to bet on but I don’t know it cost it’s gonna cost me as much to bet on the three of them as it just is gonna cost me to bet on Scotty yeah and yeah I have three outs
But I just feel like last week was different and I I kind of just I don’t want to have it I’m out of pocket this week I’m golfing I’m not gonna be watching and sweating a lot um and I feel pretty good just being like I’m gonna be sweating actually I’m going to
Be in Orlando and it’s gonna be hot um but like I’m not going to be live sweating my bets I’d rather just be like yeah you know what guys I’m just betting Scotty I have some finishing position bets hogy top 40 top 30 some of these
Other guys that I like will just be finishing position bets than than anything that’s competing with Scotty so probably probably some some of that as well but a guy I’m gonna have to bet at the price because he’s like 135 is pavon like should I just say him
With the most Midwestern Matthew Avon Matthew bav the Frenchman it’s like 135 to1 I know he didn’t play well uh last week at all on you know sort of similar kind of you know not not comp but comp course it wasn’t great Tia green but
He’s one he has two other top 10 this year and he might just be a guy who’s playing well enough and he’s a really good uh you know pin Seeker greens and regulation numbers uh take it or leave it that’s probably going to be a very small outright because it’s a huge
Number and then I’ll play him top 40 yeah yeah Scotty and adding a couple guys and then him that’s it people were dying tripping over themselves almost to bet Tom Kim here last year at like 30 people want players Futures on Tom cam I’m I’m building out my one and done
Card around Tom cim at Saw Grass uh Tom Kim is 80 he’s not been playing that bad um it was just interesting to me again this is like there’s just a this stretch of guys that have just been like kind of pulled down a little bit like fow is 60
Like it’s a big number for Tony fow and he is not putting it but again like ball striking has been great like F I bet feno here last year like 35 and I love the number like um it’s just yeah it’s it’s an interesting week like there are
If you can somehow move past and you’re just a it’s Scotty has just crossed off your list for whatever reason there’s some bigger numbers for some pretty good golfers that win golf tournaments or you know are competitive pretty often uh so again interesting week for outright betting uh Scotty without you know
Without Scotty markets I think you’re very interesting too so it’s uh it’s an interesting week man yeah all right we’re gonna call her a day let’s call thank you if you if you joined us enjoy your trip Ryan enjoy the players guys I don’t care he what anyone
Says it’s still the fifth major if you have any questions about anything like you said our Twitter handles are on the screen at betsports golf on Twitter at PJ splitz 101 if you want to bug Ron bprs golf.com and the show notes for all the details on finding your way into the
Rabbit hole with us we’ll catch you next week
