THE PLAYERS CHAMPIONSHIP 2024 – Golf Betting System Podcast

#THEPLAYERSChampionship #tpcsawgrass #PGATOUR #pgatourpicks
Episode 296 – Steve Bamford @Bamfordgolf, Paul Williams @GolfBetting and Barry O’Hanrahan @AGoodTalkGolf discuss their selections for this week’s The Players Championship.

2024 Golf Betting System Majors Competition sponsored by bet365 – entry details and comp rules are here:
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THE PLAYERS CHAMPIONSHIP 2024 – Golf Betting System Podcast
By Steve Bamford

SHOW INDEX
01:09 Intro
02:24 Listener Review
04:08 DDC
08:21 750k Up
09:36 T2 T2 T3
20:17 Players Championship Start

Golf Betting System Website: https://www.golfbettingsystem.co.uk/

Steve’s Players Betting Preview:
https://www.golfbettingsystem.co.uk/pga-tour-tips/players-championship-tips-2024/

The Players Strokes Gained Rankings:
https://www.golfbettingsystem.co.uk/players-sg-analysis-2024/

The Players Form Table:
https://www.golfbettingsystem.co.uk/players-combi-stats-2024/

Steve Bamford X: @Bamfordgolf
Paul Williams X: @GolfBetting
Barry O’Hanrahan X: @AGoodTalkGolf

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The 2024 chelham Festival week is here and B Fred have launched a boosted chelham new customer offer which closes as the last race starts on Friday the 15th of March so you need to be fast if you’re 18 plus in the UK and do not have a bet Fred Sportsbook account you can

Find details of their chelton and bet10 get 50 in free bets and bonuses new customer promotion plus a link through to that very offer with te’s and C’s near the top of this p description don’t forget to use the bonus code chelt 50 when registering that’s CH ht50 when registering if you Onf but everyone that your back misses the cut get some experts Involved with all the stats and the tips and so much more cuzz it’s the golf betting system the golf beding system it’s the golf beding system podcast greetings and welcome to the golf banking system podcast it’s episode 296 this is our 20204 players championship bets pod Barry o hanran and

Paul Williams join me Steve bford to discuss our selection for this week’s P tour action good morning gentlemen morning guys morning guys please please subscribe to this podcast as you drive the popularity of the show this podcast is for listeners of 18 and above please be gamble you can visit

Begambleaware.org for more information and of course please bet responsibly visit our world famous golf betting system website where we have my players in-depth betting preview we’ve got Strokes gained rankings player form stats plus of course our predictor model all of that content for The Players Championship is available completely

Free of charge there is no pay LA on X you can follow Barry at a good talk golf Paul is at golf betting I am at Bamford golf subscribe to the Steve banford golf YouTube channel where this podcast is available with my weekly golf betting show if you could press the like button

While you are watching listening to the show um that would be much appreciated now do you guys as listeners power this podcast so we need your five star reviews on Apple pod podcast as ever for those of you leave a I read them out the star of a future show leave your name

And where you are in the review now this particular person didn’t actually do that but I know that they’re it’s gr 47975 3 very catchy he’s in the USA I’m presuming it’s a he well-rounded well informed a soothing listen five stars I became a more consistent listener of the golf betting system

Podcast last year and couldn’t be happier to be back in 2024 I highly recommend recommend everyone read the weekly breakdowns as well my favorite thing about these gentlemen is their balanced approach to their betting decisions I did chuckle the unique perspective they offer on how scheduling real life events and personalities can

Affect the outcome of each tournament likely more than recent Strokes gained is something I think adds Great Value I also love learning more about the players grinding on the DP well tour and different courses played all around the world most of all I enjoy listening to the soothing sounds of friends

Dissecting a sport that can drive us absolutely mad thank you all for the work you put in and content you make available each week and belated congratulations to Barry on his recent hole in one awesome thank you very much that’s a that’s a beautiful review isn’t it

Chaps very nice that is awesome thank you it sets up it’s it sets up something really well the uh the talk about the the players grinding on the European tour and Steve this morning has been practicing one of their names because we’re trying to line them up for well

Steve’s Steve’s been trying to line him up for one or two events so I’m I’m going to hand it over to the main man as that’s not bad Steve that’s not bad it’s pretty good yeah thank you I mean I haven’t been able to get Hideki Matsuyama right for 11

Years but as Harry from Bath keeps saying on emails that we keep receiving uh another one which came in yesterday PS Steve it’s Matsuyama nice so he keeps reminding me keep torturing him come here come here though the did did you sh our uh angle is brilliant we should actually share it

With the listeners cuz you know we’re not going to rock the market but coming from uh the part of Europe he did he wouldn’t have been experiencing much in terms of Bermuda grass at least not on the level that people who grew up with that would have so you’re thinking Steve

That like North Northeast um you know Northeast courses in the states maybe like the Minnesota one the one in is it the Byron Nelson and Texas as well you said definitely he went to the University of Illinois so you just got to think of gromy is you

But it was just interesting I mean this is completely off the schedule of what we were going to say on the podcast but let’s just do it shall it was interesting with d d dasas now is he I’ll I’ll put this out there is he a DC

Or is he DDC is that how’s that acronym going to work I’m sure that he’s already been named but I’ve got no idea what the acronym is I think we going to make you make you say that full name each time save that’s the easy option oh well Adrian

Doas well you know what’s going to happen right he’ll make it big on tour one week and the American commentators will butcher his name and call him like chassard and then then there’ll be a back and forth like Oar for a few weeks and they’ll finally go okay it’s chasar

You know or whatever so chasser yeah who is this who is this chassard guy yeah chauffeur I said to the guys before we started recording he has arrived on the PGA tour if you take the last 54 holes of the Puerto Rico open Dand Des chasar shot 198 Strokes that was three better

Than Victor Perez and it was four better than anybody else in the field including Bryce garet who shot 203 so five shots better than the leader so clearly he’s found something he’s getting used to the promotion from the corn faery to the PJ tour he is going to be one to watch I

Mean it isn’t an outlandish statement because wasn’t it was it the Czech Masters towards the Autumn of last year he came over with ludvig Ober and they were pretty much level in the odds weren’t they for that particular tournament I remember I remember talking about him on the Pod

Yeah and um there there’s plenty of corn Ferry form before that to suggest that he could uh he could go well didn’t didn’t might work out but it’s still a learning curve isn’t it for the for for a player like him at this stage and yeah lower grade PJ toour Events maybe uh

Maybe one to keep an eye on the good thing is because he will be po well sorry at the moment until he learns the funky grasses he should have a few bad results so that should hopefully keep his price a little bit more elevated should be a bit more fluid shouldn’t

It hope so yeah def definitely want to track I expect he probably wins the V bar now and none of us will be have a penny on him cuz we we’re waiting for events way down the uh way down the calendar as if that would happen

Eh I wanted to just mention here um we’ve got a bit of a milestone chaps um we’re hitting 34 of a million downloads this week so if you’re probably one of the early listeners around about I don’t know the 300th or the 350th to actually listen to the

Podcast this week you are sending us through the 34 of a million downloads barrier so I just wanted to say a huge thanks to all the listeners really um I always say you can’t fake that level of downloads and it’s true so uh thank you to all the listeners 3/4 of a million

Downloads this this week very very good brilliant stuff next stop a million you’re a mathematician Paul when do you think we’re going to get to that million Mark I think you’ll be talking about it the week of the Open Championship Steve here we go so let’s I was going to say

Sooner than he figures out how to say Matsuyama andas Matsu Yama and Azan doas I’m quite good at that um I was going to entitle this part of the show chaps rather than last week I was going to call it T2 T2 T3 because that’s where our selections

Ended up I will start with the Arnold Palmer Invitational though because that is the one that most listeners will have engaged with last week the signature event at Bay Hill an his place here are some very scary numbers for you off the tea first on a PR roach 12th

Around the green first te to Green first putting fifth now I’m sure I said also on the podcast and we were all high on Rory mroy I think I said 10 out of 10 times I would take marroy over Sheffer those were my words last week so I apologize to everybody I was

Completely wrong Scotty Sheffer won by five Strokes beating Windam Clark 15 under Clark on 10 under shanee Larry on nine under the change to a mallet style putter produced Scotty sheffer’s best putting performance since the 2022 Waste Management Phoenix Open I was actually on him that that week that was

The his first PGA to a title yep best incredible performance found something isn’t he it it just looks so easy didn’t it chaps I was sitting there watching it on Sunday and it was you know literally third fourth hole you might as well turn that tournament off it was one it was just

All under control yeah yeah I know you picked up on the um the part of change Barry didn’t you quite early on when it was uh when it was flying around on X after we recorded he was always he was working with Paul Kenyon so he always going to arrive at

The Mallet it’s kind of fun almost to beat Rory with the stick though for saying it so like out loud there was a there was another good post I saw that show highlighted a lot of changes in his setup nothing overly dramatic but ones that would um help him be a little bit

More consistent um he seems to have squared his stance whereas before it was a little bit closed and I remember kizner picked up on that a few weeks back when he was in the commentary Booth so there’s just a few little things they’ve been ironing out and man why did

They work like it was exhibition stuff and it it got Shane Larry to say that he didn’t think he was good enough to hang with it which is that’s a that’s a big statement shows how a really really good uh major level you know major winning Pro can think

That he’s still that far away that he can’t compete with them damn impressive stuff I mean we’ve been saying and as of many commentators on the on golf that as soon as Sheffer finds any kind of neutrality with a putter let alone Strokes game which he

Did last week um then it’s going to be incredibly difficult to stop and it was just a procession in the end last week and if he continues in that vein of form with the flat stick then it could be a procession for a number of tournaments over the fourth coming weeks here’s the

Question if he stays fit what’s the over under on his wins this year so like 4.5 could he win he could win five or six tournaments if he yeah and there’s majors in there as well Barry yeah very much scope for Majors he’ll be licking his chops for

Austa mate at Bermuda carpet all the way to those bent grass greens that is that is Scotty Sheffer territory as is this week um run you through the top 10 because I know we’ve had some feedback people would like this kind of stuff top 10 te green last week t tala 10 Cory

Conor’s nine puam eight there was a tire for sixth Brian Harman Windham Clark will Wily Z at five sewo Kim at four who’s been backed off the boards this morning over here in the UK I can see why chalk Tom hogi this week what could possibly go wrong he’s at three Shane

Larry two Scotty Sheffer one great talk tournament enjoyed it like to see the course that actually put up some kind of resistance Shane Lowry break through the Bay Hill Funk and actually delivered a decent performance at Bay Hill for the first time I thought that was worthy of note as

Well right DP World T you were all over it like a rash uh T2 and T2 uh twiston Lawrence at 18 to1 and we did mention last week sha Norris a quality operator you had him at 125 to1 for two full each ways on those guys well done I know it’s frustrating

When you get so close to a victory but from a romantic perspective matio manisero wasn’t it great to see him back in the in the winner circle um i’ much rather did it in a different week to be to be honest but I was trying to I was

Trying to soften it out for you yeah I I don’t in a way you can’t be disappointed because you know a a full Place back on Norris finishing second at 125s is really a player that that kind of price is as much as you could reasonably hope

For um had Tristan Lawrence done a little bit more in the middle rounds then um he could have walked away with that but in the end for him to come through with a fantastic final round to set the club Clubhouse lead and again secure a second place at least it was

Positive in that respect but yeah manisero I you know with four holes to go um it’s it’s anyone’s really um and that’s that includes Norris um and he goes and birdies the four and that’s with the break in between as well and you know you know that that could have played

Havoc with any players mind having a lengthy break with a couple of holes to go and for him to come back out birdy the final two holes that he played afterwards virtually in the dark um was super impressive we’ve seen some signs had we because he had won a couple of

Times on the challenge tour last year but that was his first win you got to go all the way back to Wentworth back in 2013 for his last DP world or European tour level win so uh yeah a real Phoenix from the Flames story well done to him well done to

Anyone who was on him 200 to one if you managed to pluck out manaca at the start of the week big price it’s interesting to see what that’s actually done for his race to deby ranking it must have gone through the roof well yes it’s relatively lowkey

Event so um it’s all in cont a quick look up to 13th jumped 72 spots yeah what exemption um sorry sorry listeners this is when I go all Steve golf anal um what kind of exemption do you get for one of these Co is it one year or

Two um am I throwing you under the bus no well I don’t think there’s a simple answer Steve because some some of it depends on the um the prize fund and there’s different tiers for over under certain amounts of prize fund and that then qualifies you for different

Categories which get you into different events it’s um it’s complex but yes he’ll be be good yeah he’ll be playing for the rest of this year and the rest of next year at least so very good career move for him I find the race to to buy rankings absolutely incredible maroy Hino Adrien

[ __ ] wacky nean that’s the top four just okay that’s where golf is at at the moment chaps right Puerto Rico open I had Hayden Springer thankfully Hayden didn’t do a Sam Burns and triple the First on Sunday or a Harris English and completely Brown trouser himself playing

With a very underpar Rory mroy um he hung around I was very impressed with Hayden spring it has to be said he was always there or thereabouts for the victory I never anticipated him to win but uh he got me a full each way at 80

To one so I was pleased with Hayden Springer he actually saved my week from a complete zilch unlike English Burns and Jordan SP uh they uh they decided that they were going to hang around the top of the leaderboard but then completely self-combust at various points so happy with spring up want to

Keep an eye on but you listen to this chaps uh we were talking about the prince of paspalum last week uh Brandon woo did very little for me but we forgot about Bryce garet now old man Bryce garet that’s two victories on the PGA tour both on pass

Barlum you know and you say oh two victories on the p w more than Tommy flew isn’t it as we know you know little dig there um his form coming into the Puerto Rico open red it was all corn fairy miscut miscut 51st 150 to1 in a playoff from Eric

Barnes it’s the kind of kind of result we getting some of these alternative events isn’t it it’s every year at Puerto Rico I mean last year it was Nikia 125 to one I think I think his form read something like 12th at the Sony Miss cut Miss cut Miss cut Miss cut

Miss cut Miss cut before he won so there you go just pick some players garet gets a 2-year exemp ion and will be playing the century tournament at the start of next year and gets in the last player into this week’s Players Championship that’s why you should be playing these alternate events yeah

Massive these opposite events they can change your career in four days should we talk players champs yeah I do it how are you feeling Barracks I know you’re you’re not in top form are you are you okay I have to and flu Oh would be good I’m uh having a coffee here and

We’ll see how we get on okay I’m a bit scared because you and I are kind of on the same players this week but we’ll cross that bridge when we come to it now this of course I’m not even going to mention fifth major because those days are long long

Gone all I will say the PLAYERS Championship is the strongest field on the PGA tour in 2024 played at the stadium Course TPC Sor grass which is basically PGA to a headquarters I said on a podcast I recorded with Joe over the weekend um the I reckon yard for yard

This is probably the be the most difficult goal of course on the PGA T and bear with me with that because it they freshly they’ve freshly extended it this year to 7,275 yards which is still incredibly sure they’ve extended the ninth hole to just over 600 yards as a par

F I think they put 14 yards to it or something but it’s a genuine par 72 with four par fivs and each and every year the winning score is Circa 13 to 17 underpar y that just shows you it is by far Pete D’s best design it’s his most iconic

Design and it just shows you the level of trickery um brilliant design and just it’s the kind of design that tricks players year in year out and for me it’s like the biggest anti- chalk week that you would ever get because you are going to get some serious ejections miscuts from some very

Big names and it happens each and every single year 18 holes with water hazards might have something to do with it some incredible numbers when you actually look at this you know I think it’s got it tends to be in the top five every year or maybe even the top three for

Reloads off the tea also like top five for penalty Strokes full stop it’s it’s just an absolute brute of a golf course and guess what this year chaps they’ve up the rough because Florida has had plenty of rain this year they say there’s no global warming uh Florida’s had record levels of rain

And they’re quoting the rough at 3 and2 in which will sort them out big style juicy Tiff Eagle Bermudagrass greens which are overseeded with poer trivus we’ve seen quite a lot of that at the start of this year this is another one of those courses the greens are small 5,500 ft what

Barry give us 30 seconds on the stadium course at TPC s grass for the business your summary of the course uh I feel like an idiot putting any bets on before the tournament starts the think the thing it’s so it can be such a volatile course for

Players and it’s it’s a a little bit of an execution test uh but it negates distinct advantages that some players might have over others like uh extreme length that could be helpful at times this week but the how much of an advantage that is on this course is not

As much as it can be on other courses so it kind of levels a playing field um but it just seems like it can grab you and throttle you even when you think like you’re playing really well or somebody coming into this tournament playing really well and it’ll happen to a few of

The favorites this week they’ll be tipped up people will be convinced it’s going to go great for them and it’ll they just get spun around and spat out and I think you just have to accept that’s part of this tournament so I’m kind of doing a little bit of betting now and

I’m going to kind of hold a few back for some betting and running just to see who’s going and who’s hanging around that seems to be you know a good indicator of having a chance on Sunday but it can it can happen at any time you can just get ejected so fascinating

Watching um really hard to for me to figure out uh who who’s going to win great summary I like that you actually you pinged it in the first sentence you don’t really know who to back before the event you actually look at who’s being backed there’s about 30 players being

Backed on the markets at the moment and that just shows you people is there’s no one the easiest way to explain this is quite simple and this is how I explain it last four winners of this since we went to the spring rather than late or early summer May timing when which you

Remember used to be firm and fast and pretty gnarly yeah now it’s a lot softer and we’ve got this overseed everywhere which softens the course slightly you listen to this chaps this says everything Sheffer Strokes GED teer green first Strokes gain putting 48th these are ranks on the week they

Won Justin Thomas Strokes g t to Green first Strokes game patting 42nd Rory maroy Strokes G te green first Strokes G putting 45th Cameron Smith Strokes G te green 35th Strokes G pting First Complete 360s 180s whatever you want to call it reversals sometimes Strokes going te to

Green wins and then one year cam Smith basically puted lights out first for putting by a mile wins the tournament Anything Can Happen really one thing I have noticed driving distance the last four winners average out at 11th in the field of those that made the

Cut and that to me points slightly to the fact that with eoft the conditions if you can just eek it out there an extra five you know an extra 10 15 yards and the average seems to be having a very good um feedback from that in terms of the

Winners m i mean 5th 18th 20th that cam Smith and first the driving tance have won this the last four years so that doesn’t say indiscriminant bomber but this golf course is all about strategy to me it’s all about strategy and when I look at The Strokes gained

Numbers across those four winners again and I just average their skill sets out across those that made the cut off the T20 21st which is quite low for a PJ Tour event fifth for approach which is the highest of 2024 so far 15th for around the green which is

The highest so far in 2024 T green 10th Strokes game putting and I I know this sounds ridiculous when cam Smith to that particular category but 34th so what that says to me is we want guys that are red hot with their approach play very very good around the green and scrambling bogey

Avoidance and team NOA is definitely in effect this week if you want it to be although if you want to pick up an Aaron badley or a a McKenzie Hughes or Jordan spe you know the magic beans types they are in play as well if you can pick

Them so yeah that goes back to your statement Barry it’s difficult to know what way to turn really on a course that’s so open at the end of the day the best player will win this week at on the stadium of course that’s how it always

Tends to work uh there is no particular kind of player that dominates here I mean you can kind of tell that can’t you because Phil Mickelson I think he won get don’t shoot me if I’m wrong here but I think mikkelson had a maximum of it it

Was either one or two victories here and I think only Tigers won a handful of time times where you can you know tiger used to win what eight times at Acron yeah and the list goes on and on and on with with Tiger Woods Victor is here sporadic at

Best where do you want to start chaps is there anything else you want to say about the tournament or the course before we move on to our selections no don’t think so no let’s get into the destruction what do you think to chalk Tom hogi wig everyone I’m talking to when I was

Doing the live the premiere of my um golf betting show yesterday had loads of comments so yeah if you do if you’re one of those people that actually comes and premieres with me we you know we having a live chat yesterday literally everybody everybody said it was Tom hogi

Week does to does chalk Tom hogi sound good to you backed off the boards as well isn’t he 100 to one opened yesterday 66 now and still dropping like a stone I think Sky Bet had a market up over the weekend and someone grabbed him at 110 to one eight places on

Sunday that’s mad right I’ll I’ll I’ll get it in first of all I have gone Five Points win only enhanced win bet 365 6 to1 Scotty Sheffer bang done reasoning best player in the world has found the poter four of sheffer’s seven pj2 victories have come on these

Po trivialist overseed type greens and don’t forget all seven of his pga2 victories now have come on golf courses that have featured Bermuda grass Fairways Bermuda grass um basically Tea Green up until the greens six of the seven have featured either Bermuda or Bermuda overseeded greens apart of

Course from the Masters that has Bentgrass greens this is his territory the thing that made me really really just want to get involved with Sheffer this week with the conversations I was listening to on Sunday with him and Ted Scott the way they strategize a golf course is amazing and it is absolutely

Perfect for TPC s grass uh great with his approaches great around the green um he can just hit driver and hit it accurately enough to stay out of trouble to give him that advantage and if right okay I am not expecting Scotty eer to gain 1.09 Strokes per round with the pter this

Week but if Scotty Sheffer actually shoots neutral and is number one fa ta to Green he still wins this week so I’m on at six to one yeah no as boring as it is Steve I I’m I’m with you as well because I guess the rationale for this

Is what you’ve just described in a way but if it’s going to be another procession and it could well be another Scotty Sheffer procession this week then I I want to I want to be on board I don’t want to be sitting there Sunday watching a tournament that’s done and

Dusted and I’ve not got the winner um but for me boil it back down it’s a similar kind of argument to it’s the same argument really to when I was back in John Ram um early last year and that is if you give Scotty Sheffer five six

Attempts at this tournament at this time in this current form with the putter working as it was last week how many of those five or six does he win to justify his price at what 11-2 6 to1 enhanced I think he wins at least one probably two

And it justifies backing him at that price if he doesn’t win then you know I think you Cano yourself in the fact that it was the right bet um it just didn’t happen but for me he is by far the most likely winner and he won by five last

Week he won by five here last year didn’t he um yeah it could be another similar kind of scenario I think that’s in that that point you make there he won this at 17 under last year and you think oh must have been quite a soft year then

Because you know the years before that it was uh 13 under 14 under 16 under maroy and then it’s like yeah but won by five y so the next best play was at 12 under par Y and that just shows you how that that Sheffer can strategize minimize bog is not make mistakes

Yeah so yeah I think Sheffer now Compares very very well to what you just said about Ram early 2023 and I know you had a run of a couple of tournaments didn’t you when you were just going win only I think he wins at 7 to one yeah yeah and it’s the

Calculation or the math is there to suggest that he he wins it sufficient times to to justify backing him at that price but yeah if the patter performs anywhere near like it did last week then he’s going to be incredibly difficult to stop and we’ve seen him defend haven’t

We defended uh Phoenix the first time yeah first time he ever defending the tournament at Phoenix went back to back yeah so you can’t even throw that against him the other thing I noticed was if you look at the prices for the Bay Hill last week he was 13-2 and Rory

Maroy was 9 to1 and being backed off the boards this week 11-2 shefer and yes I know the Field’s bigger but you can’t say the quality of the field is better maroy 14 to1 y so all of a sudden we’ve gone from 13-2 9 to1 to 11-2 14 to1 yeah

Yeah there’s a divide and then next best 22s that’s crazy where are you two chip chipping in so you’re in on Sheffer what where’s your next bet Paul pricewise all all three figures from there for me okay what brilant oh nice what about you Barry where where are you coming in cuz you

Are the S grass Whisperer aren’t you although you aren’t this week with that with that Gruff accent the Coker no no you’re the cro you are the S grass kroer going to do the smooth introductions um if you’re doing here here’s a question if you’re doing a win

Only bet on Sheffer and he goes off on the afternoon wave why would you not wait a until some scores come in which should push his price out a little bit Yeah potentially it’d have to be something astronomical by a big player I think but I think Rory would need to be

10 under through five wouldn’t he something for sheffer’s price to budge even the slightest I don’t think it moves much unless there’s a clear a clear draw bias as well but but it doesn’t look like yeah I’m sorry yeah I never actually mentioned whether I’ve got to

Say chaps um and this isn’t something we usually say for the players it looks very very even and it looks pretty calm so I don’t see about an imbalance at all which is great you don’t want it no 2022 was just a complete and utter mess it was a joke

Yeah that wasn’t the organizer’s thought it was the Florida weather where you in come on bar where who’s your first in the bag this week um I I don’t want to back shf because it’s just boring and betting for me is not like yes it’s making a bit of money but

It’s supposed to be fun as well and that is just the most Bland yawn bet I could think of for the week so Barry I haven’t won a tournament since September I don’t care yeah well you’re an idiot and you should have followed me on Jake knp

Because I told you about him for weeks and you well I told you he was going to win in Mexico and then of course I don’t actually bet bet him so yeah which makes it even more of an idiot award thank you we will I think at the end of the year

We’re going to have an idiots award show yeah clearly I’m going to win a lot of awards that will be three hours long anyway I’ll ask you for a third time who are you backing for your first tip at the Players Championship this week I am backing will zalatoris interesting rationale plays rationale

Plays well shows up on tough courses yep uh was quite good last week and also picked up a little nugget from him in his post round interview after the tournament where he said it’s the best he’s driven it in a while and that is quite a nice thing to have uh if he

Can carry that into this week so I just like how he steps up his game in these tournaments that really narrow your focus and they ask more uh let’s say exacting questions of your game when I look at correlating courses I think there is something with St Jude

Which would make sense would it Bermuda grass tough plenty of water different time of the year zat toris as we all know he one Victory came at St Jude so I get that he was third for strokes GED off the tea last week and will can be particularly

Crooked I know when I watched a lot of the Sunday coverage he tended to be a lot straighter than Windam Clark for example like in your in your tracker he’s uh forth and strokes G to Green oh yeah you know uh not not not as hot on

Approach uh a little further down the rankings there but I just like his I just like that mental side of his game he just can just seems to dig in and show up in these uh these tougher tests so yeah last two though Barry fourth and 10th for approach third and fifth for

TAA green so yeah don’t think it’s a Bad Bet at all I took on board what you and Paul said I think it was Paul actually rather than you take take credit I’m going to take credit away from you bar and actually give it to Paul it’s okay because he

Actually said it um hii matuyama yeah wins in bunches yeah it does not last week well I was on him that’s why he didn’t but um go all the way back to 2016 with Matsuyama one 1221 across a four tournament spell late 2016 into early 2017 this is when

He’d hit the PJ to her 1 2 1 1 2 27 331 now that included two Japan golf T wins yeah granted but there was also a WGC HSBC in there there was a second at what they used to run the CB in Malaysia and there was a 2017 West Waste

Management Phoenix Open win so some very chunky tournaments and even late 21 he won the zoo Championship which of course is the event they run in Japan so he he he got even more heroic status for winning that you know Green Jacket and winning the Zozo I mean this guy is

Saintly over in the uh over in Japan and then he went on in early 2022 to finish 13th so he went win 13th win that win came of course when he patted like who should we say McKenzie Hughes to gain eight Strokes over the week on The Greens at the Sony Open

Yep he has finished here um seventh eighth and Fifth and he’s got three more supporting top 23 finishes if you look at the Fantastic Strokes game rankings that Paul has pulled together I have put a link to them in the podcast description box use them they are free they are a brilliant

Sheet where you can literally Rank by every kind of um skill set in this field around the stadium course at CPC Sor grass he would rank fourth across history for those who have played more than once on this course so yeah matu I think you know he

Could well go I I was more than happy to take 28 to1 with bet 3658 places each way on Matt suama anyone following me in or you just leaving me that to that one he’s actually he’s actually been lengthened to 33 to one in a place this

Morning yeah so no one fances him at all no that’s I’ve left him alone personally but um I yeah if his back is sufficiently healthy um then it could be worth taking a chance in him he let me down last week Steve sorry keep Crossing I keep Crossing wires with

You sorry he yeah I was I was on him last week and it was a bit disappointing to watch him you know fade off on Sunday and miss the places but maybe he kind of strategically imploded so he could win this week I don’t know I think he gets to a

Stage where when he knows he can’t win and sheffer’s literally fuing just taking the course apart he just kind of packs it in yeah and watching him hack down the left hand side of that par five it was almost as if on to next week yep take your foot

Off the throttle and plenty do that don’t they it’s some for some it’s just all about the winds and if the chance goes then so be it he’d have had to do something spectacular was he couple back wasn’t it at the start of the day on

Sunday I I did like you Barry held some held some wherever you look at Sheffer Smith Thomas I mean when you look at Sheffer Smith Thomas maroy forget about maroy never plays in in Hawaii but Thomas has won at Plantation and Wy Smith has won at Plantation and Wy shefflin never

Plays Wy and to be Fair he hasn’t got his head completely round Plantation yes but he was fifth this year and he had a seventh before winning here Matt Su got he’s got he’s had a Runners up third place at Plantation and is a y Sony Open

Winner so if you’re looking at that kind of narrative and just any kind of course clearly austa mirfield Village these tough tests St Jude he’s been there seen it done it so yeah I had to take matu Yama now my next selection I’ve gone I’ve gone to this

Yeah you know look at the stats and I I do love persuading myself out of of selections and this week I just thought to myself do you know what do not overthink things Steve just go out there pick the players you want to pick write it get the get the preview out

There and I ended up on the same horse that you are on Barry sh Shane Lowry do you want to do you want to take us through your Shane Shane Lowry selection please only if you can handle me sniffling a bit I’m going to do it

Quickly I the guy is playing really good golf uh what we need for this bet to work is for Scotty Sheffer to like not hang around the top of the leaderboard because he’s int he’s intimidating everybody at the moment so any any bet that you have that’s up there facing off

Against Sheffer doesn’t you’re going to be too hopeful of him beating him so Shane’s just playing some great golf let’s see can he Dodge the um the obstacle course that is Saw Grass and hopefully doesn’t get bitten by it we said last week he only comes to town on tough

Courses his one win in the states 2015 WGC Bridgestone and I remember that year it was F and fiery he I think he won at something like six or seven underpar um Acron had serious teeth that week up in Ohio and he just plays his best golf either in Ohio he’s got a

Decent enough record also at ja tournament or he just plays it in he plays great golf in Florida which is clearly his home now but you know it’s it’s Majors isn’t it third Augusta in 2022 we mentioned that last week eighth and the fourth at the PGA championships

They HED held at Beth Pig black I mean if you want to Tough Golf Course and Kier Island that was as wind that was wind stwn wasn’t it Kier Island a few years ago he’s also had a second at Oakmont the year that DJ won there just tough tough courses this

Course suits him and I do you know what that three and a half inches of rough I think really plays into his wheelhouse it’s major tough this week if you’re missing Fairways and you’re getting unfavorable lies in three and a half inches the rough you got

Problem s isn’t it big big problems with water everywhere and his Florida record’s great and these last two outings fourth at PJ National and third at Bay Hill a bogey course until this point so yeah I thought Shane I tell you what here’s another angle and this this might be

Something of interest to our American listeners North American listeners there seems to be something here Paul about Abu Dhabi Golf Club and success at the Players Championship now bear with me Larry won in Abu Dhabi at the Abu Dhabi Golf Club in 2019 Now you listen to this you listen

To this list of Abu Dhabi GC winners Henrik Stenson well he won the players in 09 Paul Casey a number of times I think he’s two-time winner Paul Casey and TPC Sor grass they kind of just parentally go together and he’d always go oh I’m not going to bet

Paul casy this week at 28 to1 and invariably finished fifth like he did in 2021 or third like he did in 2022 Martin kimer well he won in 2014 and kimer multiple multiple uh Dubai winner uh Abu Dhabi winner we won’t go down the one where he was six or seven

Clear and he’s never been the same player since we don’t go down that route next up Ricky Fowler Ricky Fowler’s won Abu Dhabi he’s also the winner here in 2015 Tommy Fleetwood Tommy was second here after 54 holes in 2019 and finished fifth Lee Westwood runner up here in 2021 and tyell

Hatton runner up here last year so that is just incredible how that Golf Course over in the Middle East relates to how this course seemingly plays is incredible yeah no I’ll get that I’ll get that I some of those kimer wins and I I remember watching a number of them

Quite vividly and um the course in terms of its challenge in terms of its difficulty I guess that’s where the the main correlation will come into it um and K used to just walk the floor when he when he was playing at his very best

Um you know he just wiped the floor with uh with his golf but yeah I can see it’s indisputable really the list you’ve read through there there’s there’s a lot of crossover between the two two events two cour change but this go and I know before I

Get shut down the official world golf rankings is now meaningless it’s pointless blah blah blah I get all that but fact of the fact fact of the matter is that the last four of these since the move to March players have ranked in the world’s top

10 and that kind of comes across in your odds Sheffer won at 11 to1 last year just Justin Thomas 20 to1 Rory maroy 14 to1 the outlier cam Smith was 10th in the world had won at capala that year finished won this at 33 to1 I grabbed a player who’s top 10 in

The world and who last week ranked at Bay Hill first for Greens in regulation third for strokes gained on approach 17th for strokes gained around the green so was clearly you know chipping well and minimizing bog is to an extent and ranked seventh for t to Green he

Finished I think it was tied 12th which was his best ever finish at bill now Bay Hill is way too long a golf course for Brian Harmon but I grabbed him yesterday morning at 66 to1 with bet 365 eight places each one by the way bet 365 this

Isn’t each way extra they have gone default Market eight places each way this week at the Players so if you place a just a general bet with them you’re getting eight places each way they are still running each way extra where you can select five places in a quarter 10

Or 12 places each way both at a 50 odds just thought I’d get that out there but yeah I’m on Harmon 36566 to1 a guy that won the open last year his form here is also interesting he’s won $ 1.7 million on the stadium course he’s finished 8th 2015 8th 2019 and 3D

20121 and both in 2019 and 2021 he was in the last couple of groups going out on Sunday so yeah I’m on Brian Harman 66s that takes us out to the triple digits I believe unless you’ve got another one in that mid price range Barry is he

Alive bar have hang on I was I was I was muted sorry but I was talking there for a second I was muted on the call with you guys we we we were worried we were going to find an ambulance no just managing managing the cold situation here so um uh yeah I’ve

Got a couple over in the triple digits um okay yeah well you crack on with your first triple digit then we’ll go to poll and I I will finish off the triple digits the last selection cuz I’ve got triple as well okay well I’ll do one

That I know uh well I hope you don’t have Steve because I know we’re on the same I think we’re on the same one of the same ones so I’m goingon to go with Keith Mitchell yeah cashmir Keith yeah um driving the ball incredible at the moment four in your

Strokes gained off the T rankings he’s eight 18th on approach uh which which merges up to 18th in Strokes gain T to Green a lot of a lot of like um mixed condition models I’m looking at uh he’s showing up high up on the rankings you know in around

The top 10 or so for these mixed condition models so I kind of I kind of like where that’s at for 100 to one shot yeah um he do he does seem to disappoint a bit at times when you think is about to kick on and

And really stretch for a win um or a high finish but um I suppose that’s inbuilt to the 100 to one price so I’m on board don’t shoot me down but this is my feeling on Keith Mitchell this week I reckon great first round leader bet and I could see him starting

Quickly falling away and finishing fast on a Sunday and grabbing in each way spot cuz that’s kind of how Keith operates M yeah great on a Thursday can be great on a Sunday when not in contention maybe not the strongest mentally to see a tourament all the way

Through but yeah he’s playing I he’s playing probably the best golf of his career since that don’t forget he’s a Florida winner isn’t he won the Honda Classic at PJ National he’s one and only win great pedigree in Florida yeah get that get that completely what about you Paul where you

At well with I didn’t put all my beans on Scotty Sheffer but quite a quite a few of this week’s beans on him so I I wanted to go back and have a look at players that have placed here in recent years um at three figures and just to

See if I could get a flavor for the kind of player so i’ had look through last year Tom hogi was the obvious one and we’ve talked about Tom and he’s been backed off the boards this week but finished third last year was he 150 to

Up um I’ve got him down 110 but he he could well have been a bit longer very early on on the Monday but certainly three figures um he’ he’d got a previous top 20 here and he’d finished 14th a couple of events back so record yeah I’m

On a Monday 125 to1 so yeah 110 yeah that makes sense yeah that’s that’s that’s the right kind of number so to hogi there was probably a little bit to grab on to year before Keegan Bradley 100 to1 he finished fifth now Bradley had finished 11th on his previous star

And had incoming course form of 7th 16th 29th so again you could quite reasonably have made a eway case for Keegan Bradley the year before that Brian Haron who you on been backed off the boards asn’t he I I know 606s you got yesterday’s 50 to one or thereabouts and

A sea of blue 200 to one Brian Harman was back in 2021 uh finished third and he had a couple of top eight here before before doing that some and some reasonable middling form coming in kind of top 30s top 40s that kind of number uh Tor G

Same same week 150 to one and he had a 12th Place uh two events before so I for me the summary of that was you either want a player who has a recentish top 20 or a top 20 or multiple top 10 or that kind of uh that that kind of scenario

Who is a little bit under the radar but um you know you could still make a bit of a case for anyway I’ve picked three out on that basis first one Cam Davis 100 to one the Davis um he led after the day LED after day one at the Australian

Open just before Christmas uh LED after day one at the Sony Open was second after day one at the Genesis which again um higher quality uh field solid last week t18 in the end and finished sixth last year so decent enough form bear in mind last year that sixth place finish

Came after uh five consecutive Mis Cuts so yeah um he was you know certainly found something here he was fourth at the PJ championship at oill last year wasn’t he do you remember when he was driving that D you know what there was a path or up the hill and he was literally

Driving it onto the green every single day yeah he’s a weapon Cam Davis undoubtedly sick for strokes going approached last week that’s the number that really caught my eye from his performance so 100 to one um I thought that was worth taking um the other one well another one I’ve backed similar

Kind of price actually has been pushed out to 140s Ricky Fowler um incoming form 35th 40 41st 36th so that kind of ties into the Brian Haron approach from a couple of years back but we know about Ricky form here he’s got a win he’s got

A runner up he was 11th going into Sunday at the cognizant classic so not terrible really and I I’ve I’ve been watching the um the full swing series to and he featured heavily in this second episode um and that goes back to the US Open and then the rocket mortgage win

Last year and that reminded me over the weekend just how well Ricky had recovered in his game his career yeah what nine months ago not even that so um I I think there’s enough to suggest that he can resurrect something and potentially come into a course that he’s he’s got good

Form on in the past then yeah I thought 140 to one with eight places got to take that and then my favorite one of the lot um and again is another one who’s been backed quite heavily overnight Lucas Glover 200 to one GL the glove Mr Glover man Lucas

GL he’s the Glover man Mr Glover Glover and 200 to one I backed him yesterday it’s there’s 175s out there now 150 is going to be General kind of price maybe even shorter again looking at the incoming form 35th 35th 30th so that again that ties into the Brian Haron

Number from a couple of years back top 20 for strokes G approach stop top 20 for strokes gain T green last week top 15 for accuracy and greens and regulation so the long gamees there what I really like is that he won the Windam championship sh last year and

There’s massive correlation between the Windham championship and this event web Simpson Henrik Stenson Sergio Garcia sewu Kim all won both events since 2011 Kevin kizner won the Windam and he was runner up here uh 2015 wasn’t it the Ricky’s year he was in the playoff with Ricky wasn’t he um so there’s massive

Correlation St Jude he won the week after you talked about St Jude a couple of minutes ago being a a potential one to look at he won there the week after when you were on board Lucas Glover 200 to one finished third here in 2010 sixth

Here in 2017 ticked all of those each way long shot um boxes that I wanted to see and uh I’m in you go Strokes gained off The Strokes game numbers for Sedgefield Windam 27th through off the two so again golf course you can’t overpower seventh for approach eighth

For tea green so you can see why there’s that similarity and clearly Bermudagrass beded yeah slightly different on the greens but we won’t go down that rabbit hole but yes Bermuda grass and short par 70 in that case but yeah I can see that I think Glover you didn’t mention he was

Top 25 last week around the green as well and I want to see players this I want to see players last week at Bay Hill that were decent around the green with their chipping and their and their bow avoidance or at least you know cutle the chip-ins whatever it is getting out

You know some decent Bunker play yeah cuz that’s so vital this week so yeah Glover I had a really close look at him I think um going back to the point that our reviewer made right at the start and the kind of intangible things as well I

Don’t know if you caught some of the commentary over the weekend from Glover about the Signature Events and how he dislikes that how he thinks it’s bad for the tour um that these um Limited field events are restricting the opportunities for players who should be playing um in

In full field events and uh you know he was really quite vocal about it and coming to what is this week a full field event where a lot of these players have got a chance against the best players in the on the PJ tour right now I wonder if

That will Galvanize him to go out there and have a good week as well just to put his money where his mouth is effectively we’ll see good angle good angle yeah we shall see I tell a couple there’s a few names down here in the

Depths that I had a very close look at I I still think Kurt kitam has got a good week in him because you actually look at my Strokes game top 25 numbers kittama was in quite a few of them he absolutely bolted and he clearly didn’t like his

First defense last week but you know that’s just the oneoff he’s playing some decent golf at the moment Kitty AR and as we said and he’s the kind of player that grinds so you know not 25 under but anything sort of where par is a decent number he tends to kind of come

To the top so I don’t mind Kitty armor Glovers just been backed in off the boards quite rightly I had a very close look just when you look at last year I’m not going to go into the detail but this happens every single year here you get

Triple digits that are in my Strokes gained top 25 total going in so they’re playing Great Golf as they arrive Justin s was one of those last year he he ranked 18th for strokes gain current form heading into the players last year and was a 200 to one shot got an each way

Place that actually takes me to my last selection Eric Van royan president’s cir I mention this every single week um he’s just playing some outstanding golf wherever I look his name keeps cropping up um he ranks 11th in this field in my Strokes gained current form uh metric level with SE Wu

Kim who’s very very popular this week and cam young and I grabbed him at 125 to1 so yeah I’m in on Eric Van royan who was 30 here on his one and only appearance two years ago I believe he was in the top four or five heading into

I would say heading into the weekend but I think they were playing the third round on Monday two years ago it was all over the place yeah so yeah I’m on Eric Van royan that’s my last selection what about you Baron I’m withan van royan I love the bat guy’s playing really good

Golf like Bring it on I think last week in retrospect was a bit too tough for him I don’t think he does single digits but take him to a midcore 124 under I think he’s okay that that course last week can just be a bit of a bleep you know and he

Finished well didn’t he yeah I know he finished well I think he was in the top 10 for scoring on the Sunday at Bay Hill everything in his recent form for this year like um is is making me happy with the BET 125 to onea places cheers yeah thank you let’s

Go I thought Paul you were going to mention if I if I if I’d have had a guess I’d have said Doug gim because and Barry’s a Doug gim fan as well but his numbers are very very good for this as well yeah one of those te to Green

Nuggety sorts it’s lots of Fairways doesn’t H hit a mile but enough and he’s great with his approach play yeah and he did had a decent finish here didn’t he um I forget which year it was but relatively recently I think that was the C Smith year I think he was

Playing in the last couple of groups y it all got a bit too much but he’s playing some really consistent goal the other one Austin erro I could see him going extremely well on course debut as well um as we know a winner a few weeks ago

At the PGA National right I think we’re done chaps aren’t we Y no more for m just got to mention in case somebody doesn’t think of it to tell Sam harup that he’s got a slam dunk song If Lucas Clover wins because Paul already sang it on the part so it just writes

Itself Champion Glover yeah yeah I’m I’m going to finish this week with Adrian DOR desar there you go getting good at it Steve yeah let’s see if that sticks good luck with your bets champs yeah best of luck Champs you too boys enjoy the cheltam festival which we’ve

Got over here in the UK Tuesday through Friday clearly the biggest show on Turf and I hope listeners bets go well we will be back next week with uh the Val SP Championship on the PJ T what have you got any pool next week you got another week on no no Singapore classic

Next week Shane Larry’s playing apparently low Laguna National yeah Paul Casey um headlining next week okay 8 to one Paul Casey I can’t wait yeah we’ll see you next Week but everyone that you’re back misses the cut get some experts Involved with all the stats and the tips and so much more cuz it’s the golf beding system the golf beding system it’s the golf beding system Podcast