2024 PLAYERS Championship Best Bets, Odds | Golf Outright Bets, Placement Markets | Underdog Rd1 H2H

Pat Mayo, Ben Coley & Byron Lindeque give their 2024 PLAYERS Championship Best Bets with their Gold, Silver and Bronze Selections.

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INDEX

00:00 Intro
3:13 Recap
3:44 Scheffler
7:50 Gold
15:54 API Underdog Entry
20:36 Silver
31:18 Struggling Players
34:25 Bronze
39:44 Other Bets
49:16 Outright Picks

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Got so beat up going 0 and three the last time he was on the best bet show he Still’s got a Shiner so Byron how you feeling I’m I’m feeling marle you know emotionally I’m feeling okay marle always feeling amazing but emotionally getting there physically still kind of

Recovering a little bit but we’re going to kind of bounce back at the Players I love how you bring me on for both shows that have just lakes and lakes and lakes experience experience experience P Mayo experience experience welcome to the pat Mayo experience presented by Underdog fantasy code Mayo at Underdog fantasy

Will get you a firsttime match deposit of up to $100 so do that right now okay thanks smash the like sub to the channel while you’re here if you’re not sub to the newsletter you friends are missing out it is completely free It Gets Sent directly to you with news updates for

The Players Championship every single day and as I made mention on Monday this is the week to be become a member at Fantasy national.com so you go to Fantasy national.com you get 20% off you get the monthly plan right now it takes you players through the Masters however

Some of you have been seeing the app that I have been using over the past few months the better version of the PGA Tour app where you can track all your guys in real time all on the same page with shot tracker going live all at the

Same time it’s how you actually want to follow golf on your phone if you can’t watch it live on TV or as a companion piece so for Fantasy National members this week and who have IOS capabilities cuz right now it doesn’t work on Android the beta test is live as of Thursday we

Will put a banner up on fantasy National on Thursday morning before the players championship and you can go download that app it’s not 100% done but it works for what you need it for right now so we just want to share the love with everyone and everyone who is a fantasy

National member can get access to that app and help us test it out to make it as good as it can be for when it comes out so that’s just an added bonus of everything that’s going on at Fantasy national.com right now/ Mayo to get yourself that 20% off Big Show for The

Players Championship this week we already talked about the outrights we’ll finalize the betting card on Wednesday with Ben roza and do our DraftKings picks but we need to hit these exotic markets the top 40s the top 20s the first round leaders the the top 10 of the first round whatever it might be

Whatever bet wants to come out on the best bet show it most definitely can come on the best bet show so joining me on the line right now it’s an international flavor no Americans on the show uh I mean sometimes that happens when it’s three Canadians talking football but we’re we’re going global

Here Ben Coley I know you’re powering through an illness right now I really appreciate you coming on thanks for joining the show and thanks for having me partner you know what it’s like you got kids right um and and I have a bad diet as well so throw those in and I’m regularly

Ill but I’m I’m glad to be here and then from RAB baller.com at themodel Maniac on Twitter Byron Linda QQ who got so beat up going 0 and3 the last time he was on the best bet show he Still’s got a Shiner so Byron how you feeling I’m

I’m feeling morally you know emotionally I’m feeling okay marle always feeling amazing but emotionally getting there physically still kind of recovering a little bit but we’re going to kind of bounce back at the Players I love how you bring me on for both shows that have just lakes and lakes and lakes around

The golf course pad so I really appreciate the volatility of the events that you have me on here for so maybe I show up with two two black eyes the next time but looking forward to a fun Players Championship best bet show with you guys hey it’ll be okay you can come

Back on for the 3M open everything will be fine hey you know my my boy Sam Donald’s now up there so we’re gonna have to maybe a knock out two birds with one stone when we do that well last week it was DB Cam and myself uh I hit my gold

Pick with Cory Connors he held on for his top 20 lost the other two that was pretty disappointing actually yeah cuz I ended up going with Xander top 10 DB stole my matchup bet from me of Xander over Victor which ended up winning by a

Stroke so DB goes two- one and cam hits Scotty sheffler top American at 4 to one I mean there was no one else that beat him anyway but I mean compared to what his outright odds were I actually thought that was a really good Market to

Hit so let’s hopefully we can jump on that but I want to start with Scotty Sheffer above all things right now Ben I get the sense that I mean I’m one of these people that I’m just terrified that he’s going to win I’m not going to

Bet him and I’m going to feel like an idiot for just not making one bet and and it being on Scotty sheffler however everyone seems to think his putting woes are solved after one week I’ve learned from watching Golf and studying it for a very long time what happens one week may

Not happen the next week yeah too right and I think a lot of people felt the same after the hero right I know we don’t have The Strokes game data to fully validate what we saw there at the back end of last year but um it looked as though Scotty sheer was

Going to come out uh his putting back to how it was in the spring of 2022 and win every tournament and it’s not quite gone like that obviously um it did last week the switch to the Mallet the removal of the line from his ball you know everyone

Will know uh what he changed and what happened um I I don’t know it feels like you missed the boat ultimately I mean he was a bigger price last week to be a weaker field um on a course where you probably can get away with putting sort

Of okay anyway and he got away with it last year in the players didn’t he more than got away with that he won by five putting okay so yeah obviously he’s the man to be I just like I said I think you missed the boat last week really um and

Sor grass is one of those courses like we we know it’s never been defended I I don’t read too much into that but I do think it’s the sort of place where it catches everybody out at some stage um it’s C Sheffer out already it could

Catch him out again even if he putts okay I don’t think it’s the course where you’d say that means he’ll definitely win um even though that might seem a bit foolish in in five days time yeah Byron trying to take a look at it as Ben mentioned there’s been no repeat winners

This being the 50th Players Championship and Scotty could play as well as he did last year like people forget like yeah the the putter wasn’t great last year it was about Break Even but dude chipped in like four times and that’s just hard to replicate year-over-year like one bad

Drive all of a sudden you’re swimming and it throws off your entire tournament facts I mean but it’s hard to replicate for people like you and iPad you know but Scotty that’s what he does that’s his job he’s so good at that I mean chipping in for him is it’s

Literally uh he can do it in his sleep and hitting bad drives that’s not what Scotty does it’s just incredible what he’s been doing now I’m not saying he’s going to win again you know that’s the chances are probably better than most people that are trying to defend the

Players for Scotty but I don’t buy it I don’t buy the like the overreaction to people kind of freaking out it if it happens it happens it’s not going to happen every single week right and if it happens again this week we’re g to have even better odds next week to take

Advantage of so bring it let’s go you know it’s golf anything can happen hopefully for just a top 10 for Scotty this week yeah a nice T9 I think would just be would suffice for Scotty Sheffer open up all those eight placings for the

Losers that I bet on it like 175 to one and I’ll will be very satisfied with that I do want to let you know uh we’re going live on Wednesday evening for a players chat on Mayo media network with myself and hopefully all of you will

Tune in for the final part of that and then Wednesday morning obviously I have Ben razza to talk about the DraftKings pick cut sweat live on Friday with myself and some special guests we’re trying to figure out who those special guests are going to be because cust is

Out of town and Jeff is going to be on an airplane so someone some new blood coming on the cut Sweat Show with me and you probably don’t want to hear me ramble on for about three straight hours for myself but I am giving away that $5,000 that is happening on Sunday if

You are not in the draw yet you should most definitely get in that draw right now hit the description there is a survey link down there you need an underdog account in order to enter the draw so if you don’t have one code Mayo Underdog make it E on yourself you know

Deposit 10 bucks deposit 100 bucks get it match whatever it is then go to the survey takes 15 seconds to fill out you put in your Underdog handle the state you’re from hit enter and boom you are in that draw five winners $1,000 a piece giving it out on Sunday

Near the conclusion of the PLAYERS Championship then we’ll be live on Mayo media Network for selection Sunday and filling out our bracket let’s get to the gold picks for the Players Championship I will kick this one off and it’s funny because it’s someone I don’t think uh I

Want to say he doesn’t have a chance to win outright but it’s not something that I wanted to take but it’s someone I feel very good about and how solid he’s been playing albeit last week didn’t go as well as you would have wanted but every week besides that he’s essentially top

20 he’s won this tournament before he’s at a different stage of his career and when you look at the courses that he’s been playing really well at so far basically over the past 18 months or so they’ve all been some of these shorter tracks Pete die tracks one that kind of

Rely on accuracy hit some good irons make some putts and not so much that you’re going to win a tournament but just linger around on that leaderboard maybe the second page of the leaderboard so my gold pick for the Players Championship with no ties this one’s at

Bet 365 is going to be Adam Scott plus 280 to finish inside the top 20 Ben yeah I don’t mind that at all I looked at Scott um like you said he was a bit disappointed last week I it’s strange tournament Bay Hill now it’s

Kind of got a bit yeah it’s grown in something more than it was before and I don’t know I don’t know how much of a form guide it will be um to this but I I’m saying market for mine I’m going Aaron Ry um who was 19th last year uh he

Was in contention going to the final round I think he was fourth so it would have been a big uh a big planal round for him and obviously he didn’t go to plan but he’s Rock Solid he’s one of the best ball Strikers in the field in terms

Of Fairways and greens the oldfashioned metrics if you like but um whenever we’ve seen him recently i’ I’d say pound-for-pound he’s probably the most accurate driver in this field um or thereabouts when we last saw him um in Mexico two weeks ago he was third and strokes G approach he he played Puerto

Rico and did okay there but I think both of those courses kind of work against him a little bit they’re wide off the tea um they allow players who are not as accurate as he is to get away with the odd loose one um and if you look at

Where he’s had his success he he won at the course Liv were at actually last week um at the start of his European tour career uh he won a Scottish open and by the way he beat Tommy Fleetwood and mat Fitzpatrick to these titles so there’s some big time um opposition that

He’s come up against and seen off in those he was second at Wentworth last year and that’s the sort of course for him and if you look even at his PJ tour form last year Colonial Canada um here at s grass where he despite that final

Round finish 19 so I think that should be the sort of expectation for him again I think he can probably do better maybe crack the top 10 H but for the top 20 I think he’s Rock Solid and for a final Little Nugget uh he lives about five

Minutes away from Saw Grass he practices there he knows it really well I think that played a part in why he played so well there last year and hopefully it can do same uh Byron with Aaron Ry do you think where he lives so close to the

Course he can play the cam Smith narrative that if we get some weather out of nowhere and it gets delayed for three days he can just like chill at his house and everything will be fine sure I don’t know if he’s as big a fisherman as cam but you know or a good

Putter but it’s always good to be at your house versus the hotel room I think you know eating too many uh restaurant Bagels can kind of do you dirty every now and then you got to make sure you can lean into the fridge and grab what

You want to eat but yeah uh we’ll see what Ry can get up to I don’t mind that play at all yeah so Aaron Ry right now uh plus 300 if you include the ties in terms of the top 20 did you find a better number than 3 to one

Ben it’s around that here um so yeah something like that um you know like I said I I’ve I’ve got him 200 outright now those odds have changed quite a lot here over the last 24 hours um and the value’s probably gone so I would be

Looking to the side markets and just the other way you could support him would be in the top English in the market um it’s not really one that I would usually look at for a player like him because obviously at the very top of it you’ve

Got some very very good players um with Sor grass form um Tommy Fleetwood in particular but Tommy was awful last week Matt FZ Patrick was awful last week so all of a sudden with no terl Hatton um that begins to look maybe a little bit more interesting than it would have done

12 months ago Byron 0 and three last time let’s go three and0 gold pick Let’s Go 0 and three three no let’s go three and0 again I think you look you got got me all wired up here again so I’m going to go back to the guy that gave me the

First Shine On My Face God and it was Russell Sex Panther Henley and he is the Sex Panther because it’s 64% of the time he’s inside the top 20 100% of the time and I think that’s where you want to go with him he’s just incredible around

This golf course the last two times he’s played as been top 20s he’s just a repeated offender when it comes to these top 20 positions he’s plus 170 for or ties p in full on B 365 I think you know FanDuel had him at plus 220 to start the

Week we’re getting a guy that’s over 50% in top 20s when I bet him obviously he doesn’t finish inside the top 20 but last week he did it again at bill at a course that doesn’t necessarily kind of fit his skill set as well as this venue

And what we seeing from old Henley this week is or this year is he’s morphed into some sort of like a short game specialist he’s completely gone away from being like this ball striking fiend where the accuracy and iron play has been what he’s leaned on now he’s just

Chipping and putting his way into top Sixers at Bay Hill so I’m not entirely sure what the heck’s going on there but either way he’s getting the job done I kind of like him around Sor grass quite a lot very accurate off the tea typically he’s kind of lost a bit of

That maybe he’s just spending his entire life on the chipping greens these days but we’ll see what heny can get up to I don’t mind him at plus 170 to kind of go back again and and beat me up one more time I bet Henley to win this tournament

At 60 to1 I know when I did my show on Saturday evening the only Market that was out at that point had him at 80 to1 and by the time the odds got to me it was 60 to1 he’s down to 40 to one in some spots right now do you worry that

Everyone’s just kind of on Russell Henley The Russell Henley train is one with rails that are about as put together as cust and I think you know riding that train is going to be fun enjoy um I never want to be a part of that I don’t think I have the nerves or

The emotional capacity to kind of handle that stuff but you know with the short game like this I think it’s easier to spike on a week versus kind of just dialing in the irons every week like he does so I don’t know I like the course

Fit for him yeah I I love the course fit for him how what what’s your take on Henley this week Ben yeah I’ve gotten first round lead actually um I think on that like there is a notable Am Pm am bias here um you know we got a big field um the greens

Might get pretty turned up by the end of the day generally we get a bit of wind in the afternoon in Florida I know there’s not much of that forecast for Thursday but I think 2019 is the last time one of the PM wave shared the lead

That Was Keegan Bradley um so I was looking at the the morning starters and Henley really stood out among them he averages about one first round lead every season um hopefully it comes here I agree totally that it’s a really good fit he’s got loads of good Peak di form

Um he shot 65 I think his first ever Round Here might have been his second visit I think it was his first um but he was second after round one that time and the last couple Le years he’s got back in love with the course I think um and I

Think he’s an underrated player generally now obviously with his outright ODS coming in towards 40 that probably no longer applies this week but I think first round lead top 20 th those sort of markets 100% And and finally isn’t it great that when commentate to

Say he’s one of the best Putters on the PGA tour it is again true because they’ve been saying it for about 10 years and it hasn’t been true but after the last two weeks it’s true again so the commentator is no longer talking nonsense uh Byron I want to jump over to

First round pick them I got some head-to-head matchups here for you and it’s one or the other so I want to run through a gauntlet here this is all on Underdog right now and I’ll release the slip a little bit later on uh during Tuesday afternoon if people want to come

Along to see if we can come up with a two Banger or a three Banger there’s some intriguing round one matchups here one of them is Sam Burns versus Tommy Fleetwood do you just say I know Burns got it going bad on Sunday but Tommy has

Looked out of sorts do we just roll with Burns that’s a tricky one because because Tommy’s actually got a much better round one scoring average than Burns does but Burns obviously playing much better than Tommy right now so to me it’s like one box check the other

Night I don’t know Pat have you got more options for me I do this you can pick Fleetwood Burns or pass those are your options because there’s plenty of options pass Ben do you have a lean here Burns is another one of my first round leader options so he’s been inside

The top 10 the first round last two years here I don’t see him playing well for four and half rounds to win the players but I could definitely see being one of those especially as it’s calm on on Thursday morning so yeah I’ll go Burns and it is looking calm on Thursday

Morning right now again you can find this entry and all the weather report and the tea times in the newsletter code Mayo at Underdog to get in on the action if you want to get in on this get a deposit match of up to 100 bucks Rory versus hin round one

Ben oh Rory um yeah H’s probably changed coach again since last week hasn’t he but um you need to heal a bit better from him um it’s not Ro’s course really is it it but he did win here five years ago so yeah why not I’m a Rory Fanboy

You might as well you could ask you could say Rory versus Sheffer Rory against Peak Tiger Woods I’m choosing Rory every time so sorry Byron Jesus Pat you’re giving me these conundrums early in the morning in Iowa I’m I’m not entirely sure I’m a fan of

Either right now so I’m going to go pass again but pass is a good option sometimes yeah yeah I don’t like Rory at all this week either okay I like Victor less if that answers your question Adam Scott against Tom Kim I like Adam scottt

Round one I’m just out on Tom Kim right now Byron Adam Scott’s fifth in eigh in Strokes gain round one boom Tom Kim the only time I I bet Tom Kim over last week he shot underp in the windiest day of the week so good for Tom Kim he’s like

Also part of the black eye situation you but um give me Adam Scott of at Tom Kim every round one Ben like I I usually just bet morawa and then like last year was like oh yeah this’s a perfect course for Tom Kim it still is a perfect course

For Tom Kim I just don’t trust him right now yeah I’d agree with that he’s been fairly lat last tresy this year um the odd bright spark like you I think he’s someone who can win the players at some stage in the future um but at the moment

I’d take Adam Scott yeah okay this one’s a tight one you got Brian Herman against Corey Connors two guys coming in in pretty good form Ben do you have a lean I’m G I’ll play the pass card i’ I’ve got Harmon out right if you ask me

Over 72 I’d take Harmon but over 18 you know Cory been starting quite well you know have six feet for Birdie on at least 15 holes so I don’t want to be opposing that really uh I also have Herman outright Baron and I think I might make Cory Connor one of my metal

Selections again this week after he won it for me but it won’t be an outright bet do you have either preference for round one on these guys I think Ben’s on its spot on there I think Corey kind of the putting can just kind of Spike for round one round

Two before it gets a little tense over the weekend um Harmon again like I think in a full full tournament match up definitely the way to go all right last one Byron this one’s on you Matt Fitzpatrick against Hideki matama who C claims is the 2020 players champion Jesus the two most volatile

Guys that you could imagine there I think I think justek is playing better now if he can survive playing another tournament with a numb leg I think we can we can cash that one Fitz is probably going to find multiple water balls or win the tournament we don’t

Know what but I think one’s more likely than the other and go Hideki for round one yeah yeah hii’s got a really good record here obviously I don’t think mat Patrick’s long game is uh is anywhere near where it should be so i’ I’d make him of the

The options you’ve given us I’d say he is probably the strongest all right so that that will be our Underdog entry for round one of the PLAYERS Championship we got Hideki in the rivals section over Matt Fitzpatrick Adam Scott over Tom Kim and Sam Burns over Tommy Fleetwood all

In a fewer Strokes matchup 100 turns into 600 if we go three for three you could always ensure it if that’s what you want to do as well so those will be the plays for Underdog in round one code Mayo Underdog fantasy once you get your handle enter that survey and then you

Can win another thousand bucks that one just for free get 1,000 bucks you can fire at all of these if that’s what you want to do silver picks for the Players Championship I’m going down the board a little bit to a top 40 wager with ties included so I mean you could always

Juice that up do a top 30 if you want to get greedy take the ties out of the situation but it’s a guy that I go to almost every single week in these placement markets and he’s been very good 15th in approach on the year coming into this tournament plays Pete die

Courses really well Ben it is Carson young plus 230 for a top 40 I wasn’t expecting to hear the name Carson young during this chat so good luck to you um yeah I don’t see why not um I’ve got um hopefully a market that is available over there it certainly is

Over here I’ve gone for the top Continental European market um and it might seem foolish come the weekend to be taking on two ride a cup record Breakers Victor hland and L or um but Alex noren nine to one um he’s got a good record here you know he’s in

Contention the first two times he played it it’s a good course for him you know he’s not a long hitter but he’s excellent with his eyes he’s got a brilliant short game um he’s playing well top 10 in the Honda cognizant whatever you want to call it last time

Out um and obviously Victor you know he showed the odd flash at Bay Hill but he’s clearly not been anywhere near his best and and LD plays this event for the first time I know he’s played the course before but um I would also say I mean

His approach play was awful last week and it’s just a bit like Rory really you’re taking to some extent you’re taking the number one weapon they have and and and rendering it less of a weapon so um I’d be happy enough to take a chance on Alex norin you’ve got a few

Others obviously Stephan Jer Molinari um Thomas dietre but there’s no one really further down that would worry me too much and I think Alex nor is by far the most likely to uh to turn them over so yeah nine to one over here he do you have a take on this Market

Byron or Alex norin I think there’s some interesting names that could definitely jump I think how many times have we seen European win this Players tournament it’s not necessarily like Bay Hill that much is it trying to think no I mean still waiting for an still waiting for

An English winner um obviously Martin kimer and and Rory will be the last two Europeans Sergio’s won it stanson’s won it um but uh yeah England no Europe not so bad yeah so I don’t mind it at all I think it fits noren’s you know skill set

Like Ben said there quite nicely it’s a it’s a hefty I mean 9 to1 is a delightful number Everyone likes to bet those kind of odds and um you know the top European is aren’t really playing good golf right now I don’t know what’s kind of happening over there Rory Victor

Like you said The only person what Shane could be a potential party spoiler there but but it’s but but it’s it’s Continental European so no no no British Isles here well there we go um pardon my geographical inaptitude there but we’ll have to uh kind of then lean into it

Even more then I like it even better all right do you have a take on Carson young because he’s just kind of my guy I love Carson young yeah I think you’ve got a nice little Edge there Pat I think Carson’s finishing inside the top 40 pretty about one and every three times

You teas it up I think those odds you’re going to get a bit of a nice situation and he’s playing good golf right now you know I think he’s really playing good golf and it’s it’s a bet that doesn’t have to allign him like getting too

Close to the top of the leaderboard to cash at a very nice number he can just kind of have a good week and still do it for you without kind of you know having to deal with nerves at a top 20 situation yeah this happened to me last

Year because I had Ben Griffin top 40 I had Justin Su top 30 obviously he ended up coming through and I think I had Eric Cole on that list as well and then Ben Griffin was like he was like Fringe top 10 I think going into Sunday and I think

He finished 3 seventh or something like that it just no matter what you think is happening at this course as long as your guys make the cut they’re kind of live for any finishing position fact it is it’s a disaster man it’s so much fun and I think from what I

Saw Saturday looks like some serious wind at least picking up in the afternoon so we’ll have to see what happens there I think we want to see some Saturday Hall number 17 disasters and and kind of have brandall kind of go on another rant about how that golf Hull

Is one of the worst in the world yeah I mean no one really cares about he says do they the live Bots love it you know it’s it’s all the engagement in the world that they could ever get but um yeah no one really cares but it’s fun to watch

Him [ __ ] in mind well it’s too bad we don’t have Abraham aner in the field this week only because this is this would have been the perfect course for him I’m just I could you guys have I mean you be with me on this Byron like

The President’s Cup is coming up like it was it was weirdly devastating because it’s going to be in Canada I’m going to be there and this probably means there’s more Canadians on the team which probably means bad news for the President’s Cup team but just there are

So many live guys that would just help out this team like even if you brought them all all of like the top five live International Players to put them on the international team like they would still be massive underdogs to the American team but it’d be like a two to1 underdog

Not a 4 to one Underdog like it is right now it’s devastating yeah no they have they’re an underdog now with worms and like one leg missing it’s just a [ __ ] dog walking around there in Canada and it’s going to be a I’ve already bet it at minus 220 I

Think I just bet USA to win I think that’s just how it’s going to be I don’t think going to find a better number than that as it leads up to the week I mean what we had USA minus 150 against Europe when we all thought they were going to

Go to to Roman win and we had massive confidence in them and Zack Johnson which may never ever um come out of my mouth again but I think that number’s going to kind of drift away from minus 220 there quite quickly so I ran some simulations to 1,000 for this tournament

And carison young actually finishes inside the top 20 21% of the time so maybe off to play a little bit of a ladder with him 40 30 20 cuz I’m going to get better than 5 to one on his top 20 odds even with the ties included so

That’s a market that I’m looking at sometimes with these simulations and he just ends up popping almost every single time Aaron Ry way up there as well uh in terms of top 20 percentage so Byron your silver pick just on Carson young will Crick if you’ve bet him to win $100 every

Tournament you would have won 477 over the last 12 months which is the fourth best return out of everyone it’s Cam Davis Russell Hanley and Scotty sheffler him so very nice bet there Pat I am going to go mat pavon over Nikolai hoard over at FanDuel and at minus 110 I don’t

Quite understand why we’re getting pretty much a pick him situation there mat’s been playing phenomenally consistent golf I feel like Bill isn’t necessarily the greatest course fit for him and he still finished I think better than Nikolai we missed the cut his game is just in shambles Nikolai and I think

This golf course really suits mature um I have him for an outride have him for a top 40 I’m going to be betting him in a matchup so there’s all sorts of stuff I’m going to be kind of taking advantage of I feel like he’s being a little bit

Disrespected for what he’s done so far he’s like 6,700 on DraftKings it’s it’s just a crazy situation and I want to take advantage of that especially with Nikolai not playing the greatest golf on a golf course that kind of also takes one of his biggest weapons out of his

Hand with the driver well it’s the first thing that kind of occurred to me when I looked at the odds once they were released is I too bet pavon at 100 25 to one I got my eight placings to go along with it and I was just very surprised at

That number Ben you’re probably more familiar with pavon than either Byron or I long term just playing on the DP World Tour for so long like is this the best he’s ever played over the last four months or has it always been kind of consistent for

Him no he’s um he’s taken his game up several notches it’s it would have been hard to predict I don’t think anybody I think if you go back eight nine months a lot of people would have had him in your sort of top 10 players on the DP World

Tour have not yet won um but that would have been about it you know he’s in his 30s he’s been around a while he could have won the Scottish open the year cabera Bay did I think 2017 he was in the mix there he had a chance to win in

Portugal um when we came out of the pandemic in 2020 but basically he’s been a solid but unexciting golper and he’s taken his game to a new level and I love it I mean it’s you know it’s great to see anyone do that um and it it shows

That the margins between guys like him and um you know someone like Thomas dietre say like if a penny drops for Thomas dietre and he wins the tournament then who’s to say how far he could go or couldn’t go um and and I know a lot of the French players have been talking

About how inspired they are how much they believe in themselves more because they’ve played with him they know that he was just like them we’ve had a French winner on the challenge tour a couple of weeks ago right after the pavon won um and um it’s nice to see that sort of

Ride a cup effect as well like I think you have to give it a few years you know when a country like France which isn’t a big golfing Nation host to ride a cup um the sort of trickle down effect takes a while and we’re seeing some really good

French kids come through now so yeah yeah good luck to him like you say the way he’s playing at the moment he is underestimated I it’s probably harder for people like me who’ve seen him to get our head round where he is you know like if you’d have asked me two years

Ago pavon Players Championship I’d have said well is he bought a ticket because qualifying for it and having a chance to win it seemed unrealistic but here we are so like what is his we can I can look at his stats from what I’ve seen so

Far on the PGA tour like I never thought he would have a chance at Tory Pines of all places this would always have been more of a venue where I would have expected him to do well but like what like what what does this game even

Really look like what does he do well or was it just kind of one of those bit of everything guys when he first came out he was kind of known to being a really solid driver of the ball um but he had a bit of short game problem and he was chipping

Cross-handed now I’ll be honest having not watched a great deal of I don’t know if he’s still doing that um but I feel like that might have been the missing piece of the jigsaw that he was one of these guys who was kind of like a hland I suppose where he was really

Losing quite a lot of shots around the greens and not really being good enough to account for it elsewhere like hland obviously was um but now he does everything well and he certainly gained some confidence in the putter he saw the putty drain to win at Tory Pines um so

The moment there’s really nothing wrong with his game um and he’s probably a golfer that doesn’t have a big Miss as well which is always you know probably the one that’s remained constant he’s always been really really solid um you know slightly above a like a sunjin type

Driver you know slightly above average distance slightly above average accuracy and therefore not making a a lot of mistakes like you I wouldn’t have had Tory pin down as the place to win um but uh but he did it and and going back to the selection here against Nikolai well

He beat Nikolai narrowly at Tory Pines when everything is stacked in nicolai’s favor and for all that I love Nikolai and I think in the long term he’ll be better um around s grass i’ definitely give the edge to to BU bom so before we

Get to the bronze picks I did want to talk about some struggling golfers for a minute just because one of them is going to do well hell they might all do well and everyone’s kind of fading them and we’ve talked about them briefly like Rory is

Not struggling as much as some of them but he’s not playing to Peak Rory right now havland is very clearly struggling Matt Fitzpatrick Fleetwood sunjay got it turned around a little bit at Bay Hill but he’s not playing Great Golf morawa Tom Kim Byron of all those guys who can

Use see maybe throw Rory out because Rory’s Rory and he can just kind of explode at a moment’s notice would you have confidence in that they will play well this week I would say Victor I just feel like his short game inaptitude is kind of gonna be nullified slightly you can part

From off the greens a lot more at this venue than you typically would have other courses and he’s played so well yeah it suits his game he’s so accurate of the tea with the driver when he when he needs to be he’s a great iron player

I think maybe once he find finds himself on a course like this he can really shine and we’re just waiting for him to kind of bounce back it’s been the around the green stuff that’s really kept him out of the loop a little bit so I’m

Looking for a little bit of a bounce back there like you said tough to trust any of those names and one of them is going to play well potentially so you’re going to have to roster one or two but Victor would be my guy Ben who would it

Be for you in like a bounceback perfect course fit would would it be Fitzpatrick just based on the way that he played at PGA Nation that maybe just the tighter confines having to really dial it in with his accuracy might just be something he needs right

Now yeah it could be um I kind of think with Matt when his long game goes he he’s probably a bit hard on himself and I don’t know for him I think maybe we have to wait a little while longer maybe by the time Heritage comes around he’ll

Be in better shape but it it would probably be marawa for me um partly because he’s got you know this track record of just going from looking completely lost to winning tournaments the next week like obviously the open uh he was really pooring the Scottish when

He won um the event in Florida at the concession he’d been pretty poor at Riviera well he putted badly and finished down the field um and I I sort of kept looking at last week because I watched a lot of it last week uh he was

In the group with Rory and he played really well in the first round and then he comes out in round two and he hits his first drive out of bounds and it’s just it would just look like one of those days you know like it just from

That moment he was against it um and I know shooting eight he’s not not good and he should expect better of himself but um given that you know this is a really good course for his sort of positional game um if he can just have an okay putting week I think he’ll play

Well um the the caveat is that he’s had one okay putting week ever in Florida he did win that week and and if he if he putts well this week he might well win again but yeah he’d be the one he’s got a great record at just putting things

Behind him and and getting back on track and I think this suits him more than beay Hill all right bronze picks Byron we’ll lead off with you on this one cool let’s go with the gim Reaper for a top 20 at plus three Triple Three baby I think I like

Those odds as a good omen he’s been repping out top 20s like Bryson Des Shambo in the gym I think he’s had a top six year and another top 30 in the past the ball striking is looking delightful I love the general course fit for Doug gim he’s just doing some wonderful stuff

When it comes to the ball strike right now he typically finds his short game a bit better on these Florida tracks especially at the players and I mean that number’s really really juicey I think it was plus 400 at one point and it’s been B down to 333 now so there’s a

Lot of movement in that market there and it’s a it’s a greasy little number there it’s a bronze pick though so we’re going to kind of hope that if the other two let me down we can have Doug gim covering our tail for us there at plus

333 yeah I I never need to be sold on the gim Reaper although he prefers to be called gim t or gim Chi as I’ve heard but I still prefer gim Reaper for just what he would do to so many of my bets and so many of my lineups over the

Course of the past few years maybe I have to jump on it’d be weird that like everyone’s on Doug gim at a tournament and I’m the one who’s not on him I may have to throw down some action in some capacity on Doug gim do you feel like

Doug gim is a bit of Fool’s Gold here Ben with everyone just being like well obviously he’s going to play well with the players he’s played well here before and he’s playing good golf right now how could this go wrong yeah there’s an element of that I

Guess but um I like the market he chosen you know like he’s that’s kind of him when he makes a cut he’s he tends to be um you know in the top half of those who do and um and we we saw it was him wasn’t it who contended when did he play

With JT and when when Justin Thomas won I think gim was in the group with him and and had a tough day but he was a rookie back then it’s clearly a good course for him um and yeah I don’t I don’t mind it at all um he wasn’t for me

But I don’t mind it yeah I’m looking at my stat rankings right now Byron and I have gim gim comes in 12th of all players in this field for 2024 based on his numbers it’s crazy yeah he’s he’s crazy right now like he’s a totally different golfer he’s a totally

Different golfer but the the crazy thing about gim a third of the time he’s top 20 he’s only inside the top 10 like 4% of the time so that’s his thing he’s like he finds that little soft spot just inside the top 20 and just hangs out

There so hopefully he just does that again and um you know any upside can be damned with him I don’t expect him to finish inside the top 10 but I really expect him to finish out top top 20 all right Ben your final selection the bronze

Pick yeah I’m giving you a double here so it’s two in one but um most book makers over here will let you do it if if some don’t then so be it but um top left-handed player there are three of them um and Brian Haron should win the

Other are gar Pete this is my bronze pick yeah my bronze pick is Herman top Lefty as well yeah Happy Days yeah I mean the other two no offense to the great nation of South Africa but G higo is going to hit the ball on the water

Too often here um and I’m a very very big fan of Bob McIntyre but I suspect he would do exactly the same like Bob just loves to play aggressive goal and um the the whole point of Sor grass is that you need to show some restraint um and I

Think it could get him in trouble um if can double it I’d be doubling it with Emiliano Grio to be the top South American there’s nothing particularly exciting about this except the fact that I think he should win he’s got Nicholas etaria um and Cameo Cameo Vias obviously

Once Upon a Time nearly won this but um more recently has struggled around here um Grio is just Rock Solid he’s putting better at the moment um he’s got loads of Peete dive form he’s got enough good form at s grass to think that H if the

Potter behaves then then he can just amble around in 30 or something like that and I think the other two missed the cut so that should be that yeah both of them come in at minus 150 I bet Grio to win this tournament so I am 100% on

Board with you just to be top South American hopefully if he doesn’t get that done I think my outright bets in a whole lot of trouble with Grio here yeah just take some two accurate players two guys that are way better than everyone else in their Market I love that and

That is my bronze pick as well is Brian Harmon top left-handed player minus 150 I gave a few like I was talking about Cory Connor like T Cory Connor’s top 20 maybe even Sam Burns top 20 I was looking for stuff a little bit longer down the list I suppose you could play

Like g i you okay Ben what do you make of ecro this week because based on his profile obviously he won two weeks ago but he continued the hot iron play at Bill he’s gained over four strokes on approach in three straight tournaments and dude hits like every

Fairway yeah yeah I don’t mind him at all um there’s just that slight worry that you know it’s been a big three weeks for him um and I he’s only 25 it’s not like he’s going to be as tired as I am all the time but

Um he maybe just might run out of gas there’s always that risk right um I I’m trying to think of a comparison there’s probably not a good one but Eric Cole in this last year started really slowly after a couple of big weeks because he he finished second in the

Honda and then he played Bay Hill where he got a lot of history and and what have you and then he came here and he was he was pretty sloppy early on and he he finished really well finished 23rd and maybe something like that might

Happen again but um yeah I I think ekro is a player to be interested in the long term but now it’s kind of like yeah um there’s a l coming before he takes his game up another gear I want to actually talk about Eric Cole for a sec but byon

He’s 110 to one to win this tournament now if this tournament happened two weeks ago he’d be 40 to one yes and it was what five golf shots that we got pretty much a point for each added to his outright you you know market so I think the overreaction is

Unjustified there I don’t ever think he’s going to win a tournament though but I think you know if you want to look at an upside bet for him like top five is perfect I think that’s the way to go with Eric Cole granted he might end up

Winning this thing after I said it because I came out bashing Mano last time and he came second too so maybe slate in Cole there for a second place but um I love the the course fits again like you know it’s basically a PGA National but just a bit more of an elite

Status and I think you know this kind of suits him and his driver has got significantly better now we had a few bad shots at PJ National but he’s in general been hitting the golf ball much better off the te which is essential around here and the rest of his game is

Top end so love love Eric Cole this week it’s funny because it’s I like him for his oh go ahead no go ahead I like him for his I like him for his three ball on Thursday and he plays with Harry Hall who’s pretty wild and just a couple of

Grades below him and Ben Martin who was like fifth here I think 10 years ago but since then has not shot anything better than about 72 um Eric Cole slight I believe plus money is the correct vernacular um he uh he looks Rock Solid to me because you know I I thought the

Cognizant it’s like it’s really hard to go back there a year after he nearly won it with all the you know probably with the first time in his in his PGA Tour career where he thought I could win this week or or expected to play well and

That’s a really difficult thing to do and he so he had a bad week he came out he played better at Bay Hill and I think he’ll play well again week yeah a few other guys just to make note of there’s one at the top and then there’s a few

Right around that same range as Eric Coan but are we silly for not just riding the for of Shane Lowry maybe he was 66 to1 last week and he’s 33 to1 this week um I I love Shane look I put up Shane in God knows how many big tournaments over

The last five six years um I just I don’t know yeah maybe we are but he didn’t TR me like he’s the same price as marawa over here and you know there’s a there’s a limit right and actually you can get 10 to 11 mroy to be the top

Irish player here and it’s Sheamus power also technically counts but I don’t think we should worry about him really um 10 to 11 to beat Shane Larry like again he’s just he is a significantly better golfer um if that not too simplistic um so yeah I’d be more interested in being contrarian and

Saying yeah Shane might have a bit of an off week and Rory beats him yeah and we we just talked about you know ekro he’s 25 he’s you know had a big win played a few weeks in a row Byron what do you make of lowry like he’s a big dude and

This will be three weeks in a row for him he’s a big dude you know but hey I’m a big dude and I can I can hang every now and then you just got to dig deep especially when it’s the PLAYERS Championship so I think he’ll be okay I

Love Larry for a first round leader he’s been coming out really hot in in round one lately it’s just he’s one of the best golfers on the planet you know uh Thursday through Saturday and then you kind of it was so funny when he was in

His press he said oh even if I try to put any pressure on Scotty it wouldn’t have worked buddy you weren’t going to be like you could have had like your best performance ever on a Sunday and it wouldn’t have mattered at all but like you’re pretending like you’re going to

Put any of pressure on him anyway is just bizarre to me on a Sunday I don’t you know Shane’s just got the demons on a Sunday it’s incredible like you can’t play as well as he has and then suck it up on a Sunday that bad so a top 20 for

Me is a very nice bet I think what plus 150 there he’s been doing it historically that well and now he’s playing on Florida courses playing good golf I don’t mind it at all I kind of like his safety I I don’t like his upside whatsoever yeah and he’s sort of

In that Cory Conor’s mold for me that when it comes time to make putts to win the tournament it just feels like he’s never going to make them no and it’s going to be obvious before it happens you know like we’re all going to sit there just like feeling

Sorry for him before he even puts his putter beond the ball last thing there’s this group of guys right around anywhere between like 100 and 150 to one and they either some sort of compilation of guys that we’ve talked about who are either on like descending form but have been much

Higher up in markets for the past few months or sort of risers fit a statistical profile good course history or similar comp course history or have just been playing Great Golf right now so I just want to throw you a list of names here uh and just get a little bit

Of insight on who might actually be the best of these bests now I think it’s going to be Aaron Ry for Ben we’ll leave Aaron Ry off of this but you got Keith Mitchell Rio Rose Cam Davis JT Poston Eric Cole Chris Kirk EVR Billy horel Nick Taylor Baden Hout and Jake knap

Like all those guys have kind of popped up then over the course of the past three months like Poston was legitimately like 20 to1 to win Phoenix and people were betting him and now he’s 100 to1 and a much better course for him yeah he seems to have gone off the

Board a little bit doesn’t he but you’re right I mean his put is kind of cold a little bit and at some stage that will come back um so yeah I could see that quite a few names there that I did look at Keith Mitchell has got bits and

Pieces here he obviously won the Honda he’s definitely shown some improvements with his irons lately but H frustrates the hell out of me I was on him in Mexico and he so bad for the first two hours of that tournament um and and I really do feel like that could have been

A great chance for him to win um had he been awake when it started um the one I like and he’s the one probably of those with the greatest upside but with the the the greatest risk is Justin Rose um this is a really good course for someone

With and and and a good event you know the stature of it for someone with his CV and someone who can still plot his way around um you know he was six last year and he didn’t pot well I think he has two top 10 his last three starts and

The players but loads of Pete di form like you look everywhere he’s played a Pete di course he’s played it well um obviously at the moment his approach players rubbish um and that’s going to have to improve um he shot some big numbers last week but he’s a bit like

Mor carw worth again probably a bit too much into the weeds it’s probably me looking for some hope wether is done but he got to the 10th hole last week um inside comfortably inside the cut line he three puted from 20 odd feet and then he three puted the 11th from four feet

And then he hit it to within 50 feet of the hole on 12 the par five in two and made an eight so he had like half an hour of complete Madness on and around the greens and that’s the only reason he didn’t comfortably make the and you can

See that as a big problem which it might well be but I was happy enough to take the chance because I would not at all be surprised if Justin Rose is in the thick of this tournament on Sunday yeah there’s always one of the older players who have the required skill set Byron

That just pops up at this tournament that that’s like once every five years like if somehow mullar got himself into be like oh yeah that makes sense this is the one place where he’d play well yep I couldn’t agree more I think another older guy but in much better

Shape than the majority of them is Billy hell he played really nicely at the cognizant and I think he’s actually been trending pretty nicely especially over in Europe he played some I think he found his form back over in Europe there for that like stint towards the end of

The year and then came back played nicely at the Sony played nicely at the Cog last time and I think at this venue he’s getting underpriced he’s undervalued on DFS I think he’s a sneaky little play he’s a grinder you know I think this course requires that

Mentality to kind of do it he’s accurate off the tea and he can can putt lights out when he wants to so he’s someone I kind of have my eye on in particular and then Jake knap is a I think people are thinking that he’s like this big bomber

Kind of bomb and gou situation I think he actually really suits these narrower courses really well too because he can just hit those three irons off the te much better than most people can hit driver right so his iron play has just been immaculate and I think you know the

The pressure to succeed at this venue is not going to be nearly as as big as as like Bay Hill yeah I can see that I mean obviously his profile just lines up to be a bomber because he can hit it so far but he got into such trouble last week

And it’s almost like what Ben said about Bobby Mack a little bit earlier about how he just wants to play aggressive it feels like now you don’t make a 12 not trying to play Super aggressive like he didn’t have to take on as much as he was

Taking on and I worry because that used to happen to Rah at this course too like five years ago like he would get to a spot where all he had to do was do the sensible thing and what did he do triy to do the stupidest thing possible and

It screwed him every single time I feel like is kind of in like nap’s in Yolo mode right now like he is just free rolling life at the moment you don’t think he’s going to try to go for every pin uh if there’s just a chance that he

Could do it I think that he will I think that might come back to bite him Here that’d be I maybe but yeah I think at this with the weather it is you’re gonna have to make birdies to play well so if it he’s got the game to do it you know so we’ll we’ll see anything could happen this week boys I’m I’m dreading

It yeah Ian it’s just going to be sheffler by 10 then we’re all going to look stupid so Ben before I let you get out of here who did who are some of your bets to win you mentioned Heron I assume morawa because you’ve brought him up a

Bunch of times no I left him out in the end but um I was close for for I’m sure I’ll regret it but I I am on speef um because stubbornly I have always thought Jordan spe will win the players championship and you know you might only

Have five or six more realistic chances so I might as well stick with the theory until I can’t anymore um I really like Max Homer a lot of people will be of the same view um you know he he did really well against the draw byas here two

Years ago really well last year and and it seems to have come around um obviously a top 10 last week at Bay Hill um Justin Thomas so they’re my big three from near the top I think you know would probably get a world class winner of this tournament so I’ll take those three

I like Harmon Rose and Ry as the uh the big prices all right so Byron I two him on Justin Thomas I I nabbed him at 25 to1 at open and he’s probably I mean he’s the third favorite now he’s down to 18 to1 in some places but I I just think

That everything is kind of setting up for him we need that that one iron week from him and him not to have a terrible nine somewhere on the weekend and maybe we can push forward with another Justin Tom this would this would be sort of like the end of the comeback for him

Wouldn’t it that he went from nothing and now he’s been great for six months and now he gets back to well I guess there’s a PGA Championship coming up but players in PGA seem to be his jams yeah they do and I think you know the if you think about Justin Thomas

Though Pat doing the definition the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results Justin Thomas is gonna have a bad nine and it’s going to happen around this golf course in particular all of his wins the PJ Championship the players came from miles behind he’s a

Chaser I think he’s a live bet guy for me um I don’t also you know he’s everyone’s saying Justin Thomas is back he’s back to finishing inside the top 10 repeatedly I don’t think he’s going to be winning tournaments like from the lead but I don’t you know obviously fits

The narrative yeah so I don’t mind him I guess who who are your outright so far I’ve got 10 so buckle up um I’ll over I’ll start with the one that we overlapping with and that’s Brian Harmon love what he can get up to the irons are

Starting to Peak got Max Homer Windam Clark sah the Galla little bit of a fomo minw Lee play there um Benny an Tom hogi mat pavon Billy horel at 200 to1 and then Nick Taylor as well I think that number is about half since we bet it so

Got luck a bunch of guys playing some good golf maybe one of them getss through yeah I Justin Thomas is the only guy near the top that I have so I’ll probably add one or two by the time I finalize my selections for the Wednesday

Show and we get to the live chat on Wednesday evening probably going to happen around 730 p.m. eastern Time is when I’m maybe 7 maybe 7 depends on when my kids go to bed once I get to bed I’ll start doing the live stream and take all of your questions and finalize

Everything but that will do it on this edition of the pat Mayo experience Best Bets for the players champ Championship Byron when does the breaking 100 come out breaking 100’s coming out this afternoon after I get the stat Buffet out there code Maniac gets you into the

Premium side of things there um lots of fun stuff I got my back nine bet show tonight at 7 Eastern uh Ben I was already reading your first round three ball tips on Sporting Life I do like this coold to beat Martin and Hall I

Like that a lot uh what else do you have coming out over the course of the next two days nothing I’m going to bed um no I genuinely don’t think I have anything done everything I’m going to do pre- tournament but I’ll be previewing every round as we go through it providing I’m

Still uh standing so yeah I’m not dramatic at all um yeah it’s GNA be a good week I’m determined to enjoy it I’ve not enjoyed a lot of golf tournaments this year just from a pure like just enjoy the golf tournament partly because loads of them have been

Rubbish partly because I think my attitude’s been wrong so that all changes this week yeah I mean I’ve sort of embraced it and maybe I’ll just bet Nick Dunlap to win this one he’ll be the Pete die specialist that we all deserve at like 500 to one but Ben if you want

To enjoy golf I’ve heard from the internet from these people who have no profiles and a lot of numbers in their name that I just have to wake up in the middle of the night and watch Hong Kong golf that’s all I’m told yeah some maau

Open this week as well on the Asian tours International series their press release today described I poter as a live golf legend best finish of eth so far so that will do it on the show thank you both for being on thanks Ben for powering through the illness uh maybe

Your eye will heal up with a 3 and 0 week this week by and that would be very nice again fantasy national.com Mayo get you 20% off the monthly get you players through the Masters and if you are a member on Thursday this week before the

Tournament starts so will be a banner on the page to beta test our brand new app which is a live leaderboard everything that you’ve always wanted from an app as a leaderboard to follow golf we think that we’ve made it for you so we want it

Your help to improve that before we put it out to the public so that’s just another perk of being a member at Fantasy national.com right now now Underdog fantasy code may get you a deposit match of up to $100 the newsletter the Smashing of the likes the downloading of the podcast and hopefully

Some winners will emerge out of that all right I’m Pat Mayo thanks for watching I’ll see you next time pat Mayo experience experience