Iain MacMillan and Cody Williams are back in action this golf season breaking down their best bets for the PGA Tour each week. This week, they’ll be breaking down their best bets for the Arnold Palmer Invitational. They’ll also give out their best bets for the Puerto Rico Open and Blue Bay LPGA.
-Top 20
-Top 10
-Top 5
-Winner
-“Closest to the Win”
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Hello friends welcome to Green on the greens we are back for another episode myself Fe McMillan joined by Cody Williams once again again uh we are entering uh the best stretch of the PJ tour season I think so my personal opinion uh Arnold Palmer Invitational this week Players Championship next week
I think it’s next week uh in the Masters just a little bit over a month away Cody how you doing today doing good other than being the coldest golf better in the country right now but you know other than that doing great yeah I might just let you recap
Your picks this time around because now I’m I’m starting to feel bad but I think we do have an obligation recap them uh but we do have a big show today uh so go ahead and subscribe to the channel like this video leave your comments in the
Chat for your Best Bets for this weekend’s golf action because we’re not only going to talk about the Arnold Palmer Invitational we’ll also give out uh each of our best bet uh for the Puerto Rico open the alternate field uh event this week in the PJ on the PJ tour
And we’ll also give oute our Squad ride for LPGA uh LPGA pick did not work out last week Yuka Sasso um early tournament collap she brought it on by the end but it was a little too too little too late um I had a golfer hyan Jin Choy who had
A shot heading into the final round she was actually two back after her first couple holes in the final round but then collapsed um so no LPGA winner this La this past week but we’ll give it our Squad ride for that so Cody why don’t
You start us off and just let us know how your picks went for the cognizant classic last week uh well none of them won so I’ll start there uh but uh Christian bazen Hood I had him for a top 20 he decided to go six over on his back
Nine uh on Friday to miss the cut Matthew pavon decided to find the water on Sunday multiple times to miss out on the top 10 even though he was very much in contention Eric Cole dfl dfl plus seven on on the first two days that was
Bad uh sep straa very much in The bazen Hoot type of manner really collapsed on the back nine on Friday to not make the cut so yeah it was a pretty bad week let’s hope that that that’s as bad as it gets uh Eric Cole was a super popular
Pick and he finished dead last like I saw a ton of people on air coal this past week but that’s that’s golf that’s just sometimes betting in general golfer might just play Bad a team might just play Bad um I had a I had a profitable
Week thank you to Billy horel my guy Billy Ho uh cash in top 10 plus 650 uh chess and Hadley finished he was kind of in the mix a little bit but he he collapsed there a little bit on the last day uh he finished t35 uh Keith Mitchell uh was one stroke
Back from finishing top five unfortunately so he on a seven to one pick there by a little bit Alex noren was kind of hanging around the leaderboard uh all week uh but I only bet him to win and he finished T9 uh so actually had three players
Finished T9 so if you made a DraftKings lineup out of my picks you would had a pretty good week and also most importantly I got closest to the win point for this week sneakily my best picks on this show so far have been close to the win picks another complete
Long shot who finished in the top 20 Ben Silverman uh finished t16 this week so I’ve taken a 2-1 lead uh in closest to the win yeah and uh shout out to Tim meter commenting on the video uh Pavone T20 was indeed brutal it was just a brutal
Week H yeah so I’m not saying fade me this week because I’m confident but uh I’m not feeling great um I am in a I’m in a one and done me and a few other buddies we all went split season uh I think it’s Pat Mayo’s
One andone uh League um and that’s who we went with was Pavone so uh is that how you pronounce it pavon Pavone I don’t know man it’s it doesn’t matter it’s it’s the French guy uh so I I was sharing for you uh uh on him and he yeah
He was in the mix all week and then just kind of fell off on Sunday so yeah that’s a stinger for you um so I finished one in three plus 3.5 units that brings me up to a profit of uh plus 4.5 units since we started the show back
Up so let’s see if I can keep that momentum going Arnold Palmer Invitational uh Bay Hill uh you thought last week was a hard course it actually ended up playing a little bit easier than I think we expected uh beay Hill very difficult also depends on the
Weather um I know TL Hatton wanted a couple years ago like four under it’s usually if the conditions are okay it’s usually around 10 under is uh any quick thoughts from you Cody about Bay Hill about handicapping this event before we get into our picks yeah so it’s one of
Those courses where the rough is super penal but I’m not necessar looking for driving accuracy as much as I am as driving distance because what normally goes with driving distance is Club head speed and that’s the big key to play out of the rough in like this rough is not
Unplayably deep it’s not like you know Peak US Open rough where you can’t play out of it so like if you have someone who’s really good with driving distance I tend to favor that more a little bit more than accuracy because if they’re in the rough they can still you know get
Their approach on these greens which these greens are playable these greens are not very difficult greens they’re flat and you know the Bermuda if you putt well in Bermuda you’re going to have a pretty DEC decent time there so yeah that’s kind of where I’m looking at
As Club head speed as a big factor this week yep uh I’m taking a peek at bogey avoidance a little bit this week as well scrambling um but yeah it is certainly a ball Striker event here um yeah all right I like it we got a lot of picks to
Get through with Puerto Rico and and LPGA uh for us to talk about as well so let’s get into it top 20 uh for this week for you uh top top 20 I’m going with the name that we heard a couple you know a couple weeks back at the Mexico
Open Sammy vaki finish guy H you know like I said he came up short against Jake knap in the Mexico open but still finished top five oblivia finished runner up if I’m not mistaken but he came up with a good and he missed the cut last week at uh cognizant but he
Gained ball striking both rounds and his putter kind of just went ice cold and his around the green play wasn’t that great but his ball striking has been kind of the constant force for him and like you said this is a ball Striker’s course and nine of his last 10 Rounds
That he’s played he’s gained ball striking so that’s looking really good another area where I’m kind of targeting statistically this week is proximity from 200 plus yards out because this is a long golf course he’s tied for ninth in the PGA Tour this season from that
Distance so I think with his length off the te he averages I think like 298 300 yards off the te I think that’s going to combine well for him to put himself in a lot of scor scoring positions and frankly with how well he’s been playing outside of the cognizant I think plus
350 in this limited field is a little bit disrespectful for how well he’s striking the ball so I’m kind of taking a little bit of a long shot in The Limited field with this yeah I like it yeah one thing uh we didn’t mention there before we got into
The picks I think I read that this course B has the most uh approach shots of over 200 yards of of any PGA tour course if it’s not the most it’s up there so definitely long irons long approach guys are guys that were going to want to Target this week as well so
Uh yeah I like it you’re not too concerned about his uh about his miscut last week no not at all because I mean as long as he’s still striking the ball well that’s really like if he had not you know been gaining on approach and with the driver I would be much more
Concerned than you know him going C with the putter yeah uh I agree with that um this week so the past couple weeks I’ve been I’ve been targeting a lot of a lot of long shots and it’s actually worked out well for me but I have a theory that
This week things start to change Cody I think we’re gonna see the top dog show up I think we’re GNA see one of like the top five guys on the odds list win so my picks kind of reflect that I do not have long shots like I have a couple weeks
Including my top 20 pick only plus 140 to finish in the top 20 uh but I’m going with my fellow Canadian Cory Connors I think this is one of the guys uh that has the best one of the best course fits out there I also did
Bet on him to win but I bet on on him to win when he 66 to1 I don’t think that price is available out there anymore uh I bet that at B MGM and at B MGM he’s down to 50 to one uh so his odds have
Moved I probably wouldn’t bet him to win a 50 to one but I still certainly like him finish top 20 uh plus 140 uh he enters uh the week ranking third on tour and first in the field and ball striking ninth in approach appro approach proximity from 200 plus yards also had
Decent success at Bay Hill he finished third here in 2021 11th and 21st the past two seasons uh obviously when it comes to Cory Connors it comes to down to a short game that is why he doesn’t have as many wins uh or what he just has
The two wins on PJ tour I think if he could have a short game he would be like close to double- digit wins at this point I’m hoping you know it’s you know the strategy of going back to you’d rather bet on good ball Strikers and bad
Putters and hope they get hot then good Putters uh and hoping they have a good ball striking day so uh even if his short game isn’t on I think a top 20 is still very much in the mix for Corey Connor just because of of of course fit
Uh and course history so I’m GNA go with my fellow Canadian here Cory Connor’s top 20 plus 140 yeah I can’t get you I can’t get there with like the outright just because of the short game and how bad it’s been but I do think if you’re
You know getting plus money on a top 20 like I said in a limited field like this is under 80 players if I’m not mistaken it’s like 74 or something like that y so yeah I think a top 20 if you’re still getting plus money on that that’s that’s
A good bet for sure uh Tim is with me on this one I like Connors and Fitzy this week we’ll be adding Scotty top 10 to some college basketball picks tonight for more juice oh yeah by the way update on that uh the last time Scotty sheffler
Was it must been the WM Phoenix opener was it uh the Genesis whatever it was um I did I said I was going to do the strategy of betting Scotty sheffler top 10 uh and just rolling over the winnings and see how far it goes it worked the
First week whatever week it was it must have been Genesis I guess it was Genesis yeah uh I then rolled the winnings I didn’t tell anyone about this but I did roll the winnings into a Tony feno top 20 at Mexico uh which hit uh looked a
Little sketchy times but that did hit um so I’m now rolling it again into Scotty Sheffer top 10 now this worked a lot this would have worked a lot lot better last year or the year before when uh you could get plus money on Scotty Sheffer
Top 10 he’s like minus 160 to finish in the top 10 this week uh so I start started off at $20 and it’s only at $42 getting rolled into this week and I think even if it wins I get like 65 so it’s it’s not as easy as it was last
Year with this minus money but I am for anyone curious I got a couple people messaging me about I am rolling those winnings back into Scotty Sheffer top 10 again this week can I ask you a quick question about that concerns Scotty that I’m kind of curious about because it go
Goes into something you just said you said or earlier you said about you know you think someone at the top of the odds board is going to win I have a kind of a gut feeling and I’m you know neither of these are my best bet as an outright but
I have a feeling that this might be a Scotty or Rory week like one of them just wins this tournament between the two who do you like more to win this tournament I think I would go Rory because Rory actually led the field last week at at the cognizant and strokes
Gain T to Green um so if a short game just gets I mean it’s the same for Scotty though it’s going to come down to which of the two guys putts better but yeah neither of us are picking Rory or Scotty this week to
Win um if I had to pick one of the two I think I’d go Rory especially you’re getting a little bit longer odds on him um but yeah I have call it a gut feeling call it I don’t know what but I think I think the Run of underdogs ends this
Week I think so too and I think I would also go with Rory because kind of what you said like we’ve seen Rory putw in the last year it hasn’t been consistent but we’ve seen him putt well over the past year we have not seen that with Scotty sheffler like he hasn’t had
Really any pop weeks with the putting right and both these guys by the way historically have done very well at this event especially Rory Rory went dating back to 2017 he goes fourth first 6th fth 10th 13th second so nothing worse than a 13th Place finish dating back the
Past seven uh uh events at this course Scotty Sheffer last two years went first and fourth so good course history for both guys both guys have wins both guys are the best ball Strikers on tour right now it could be just a Scotty a Rory
Week am I betting on either of them to win no will I regret that possibly um but it is what it is yeah uh let’s move on to top 10 here who do you got so I’ve got a guy who’s just consistently finishing in the top five it seems Jake
Nap I mean I have no idea why his odds are plus 350 to finishing the top 10 with the way he’s playing I guess it would probably have to do with hit the strengths of fields that he’s been playing in but in his last four starts
He has a win in Mexico a T4 last week and then a T3 at farmers and then I think his other finish was like T28 so he’s just playing incredibly well and his ball striking is what is the reason behind it he gained one he’s gaining
1.82 Strokes T to Green over his last 16 rounds that’s fourth best in the field behind only Scotty JT and Xander the big differentiating factor between those though is of the other three that are ahead of him Xander leads in Strokes gain putting at 0.02 Strokes G putting
Jake Na’s gaining .56 over the last 16 rounds on the green so he’s putting well on top of that and I think what really impressed me is last week at the cognizant when you looked at what Jake knap did at Mexico he kind of got a little squirly with the driver on Sunday
And I thought oh at the cognizant with the tighter Fairways and all the trouble that might not be a good fit and turns out it didn’t matter his ball striking still shown through and he still came up with a top five finish so I think with the way he drives the ball he’s
Incredibly long he gets a ton of clubhead speed with this with his Tempo and his swing he’s top 25 in proximity for 200 plus yards this season I think that he’s playing like one of the 10 best players in the world right now and even in this loaded field I think plus
350 is a little disrespectful for how well he’s been playing yeah I agree I I expected him to take a step back last week he did not not even close finished T4 he was in the mix so uh yeah Jake knp it is we’re in an interesting spot with
Him where we’re trying to figure out just how good this guy is um because it’s always tough with these like kind of old he is a rookie right yeah like older rookies is 29 years old I know know that’s it’s not super old but uh
It’s not like like I think we would be giving him a lot more respect if he was like 2122 because then we’d be talking about him as like the Next Generation like with some of the other younger guys but because he’s 29 it’s like did he
Just all of a sudden figure out Golf and now he’s one of the best golfers in the world or uh is he just kind of a flash in the pan and he’ll get hot here for a few weeks and then and then cool down I don’t know um so I’m staying away from
Him personally but I don’t blame you cuz yeah plus 350 for a guy who’s coming off a win and Then followed up with the P4 uh maybe a little bit disrespectful yeah yeah that’s kind of where I’m at uh I’m also betting on a guy who is hot last
Week um at the cognizant Classic this is a guy I’ve bet on before uh this year uh so my top 10 pick Min Wu Lee three to one uh I’m also betting on him to win out right I got him at 45 to1 to win
Outright uh yeah I think I bet on him in the first event of the year and then I’ve been off him since I’ve been waiting for him to get hot now might be a good time to do it uh he was third in the field in Strokes Game T to Green
Last week he finished T2 he’s also great from 200 plus yards away uh he’s 12th on the PJ tour and approach shot approach proximity from 200 plus yards uh obviously not much history here at this event um but still if you’re looking for a guy for recent form who does have a
Bit of a course fit here I am concerned he can get bogey sometimes which which might hurt him this week um but I’m going to take a shot of them top 10 for the show here three to one um I will also say my strategy last week
Of uh just betting on guys who ranked high in bogey avoidance while it did kind of work out I mean I did hit Billy horel top 10 and everyone else was at least made the cut and kind of in contention that is some painful golf to
Watch cuz I was watching them you know both on the TV whenever they show their shots which weren’t many and on shot tracker and it was like no matter where they are in the like in the Fairway even on the rough if they’re 80 yards out or
200 yards out it doesn’t matter they hit the green but they’re like 35 feet away so it’s like they hit the green every time but they just don’t make birdies and that is the most frustrating uh type of golfer to watch I it’s not the type
Of golfer I’ve I’ve usually bet on but it was like all four guys I bet on were all those type of guys and it was like 80 yards away be like awesome they’re going to get a great approach here have a birdie chance no 40 feet away two putt
Par perfect on to the next Hole uh and it kep it kept them in the mix for the whole tournament but it is just frustrating golf to watch because it is just the birdies are few and far between so are the bogeys but if you want them
To move up the leaderboard you generally need some birdies and and and few and far between for those type of guys so that was a bit of a unique experience for me watching golf last week yeah and mwe is like the antithesis of that he’s just letting it rip every single time uh
Another a good little tip uh he’s only 6,600 on the draft on DraftKings DFS so he’s in the 6K range and I think that’s a pretty drastic misprice if I’m being honest so that’s someone to definitely uh keep an eye on there yeah I got to
Get back into some DFS it’s been a while since I’ve set a lineup should have done one last week probably would have done all right um all right top five top five I’m going back you a guy I’ve bet on already this year uh ludig Oar and plus
350 again so my first three picks are all plus 350 so let’s hope you know that’s the lucky number for me but when you look at the profile for beay Hill and we talked about you know distance Tia green being dialed in with those things that’s what this golf course
Demands and that’s what history says it demands that’s what lud ludc oer does better than most on the PGA tour right now he’s arguably the best driver on the PGA tour outside of Rory mroy but his approach play this year has also started spiking as he’s gotten more comfortable
With the pro game last 16 rounds gaining point seven strokes on approach he’s also 29th on tour in proximity from 200 plus yards out and before it got rained out we saw him at Pebble finish second and that goes to show me that he’s ready to compete at these high level events
Like he’s ready to bring it to the the Signature Events sorry sorry I’m totally blanked on that word uh beyond that as an Amer last year he was t24 at the API so he know he already played well at this course when he was an amateur and
Before he got into the rhythm of the pro game so I think it’s all lining up for a very big week for him I honestly very much considered him as an outright but because of the lack of experience I tried I just set it on the top five but
He’s someone who I’m thinking really highly of going into this weite yeah I like that pick obviously great course fit I struggle with ludc I don’t think I’ve ever bet on him just because like I keep looking at his price and I I like I just can’t get there with
His current odds like I keep convincing myself that he is overpriced but then he continues to like post finishes that like prove that he’s actually not being overpriced I mean t19 second place T9 so it’s like no he’s not actually overpriced he is priced correctly but I
Keep not betting on him because I look at him and go oh he’s just overpriced I don’t want to bet on him so it’s ludvig is just one of those guys that for now I’m just going to stay away so I’m glad one of us is betting on him at least
Yeah it’s such a rapid Ascension so I don’t think like your mentality is wrong because like he went from being you know like plus you know 60 to one or something like that to now he’s like one of the you know top 10 on the odds board
Right and I have a little bit of PTSD from Tom Kim last year because Tom Kim was like ludvig was and I was betting on a lot early in the year and he just kind of fell off a bit still Obviously good but like he was a case that where he was
Being overpriced so like I keep comparing ludvig probably unfairly to how Tom Kim was in the betting market last year um but I’m glad of us uh is betting on him for sure um my top five pick uh guy bet on earlier this season
As well uh Sam Burns top five plus 375 I think he’s a little bit undervalued in the betting Market this week I found him 20 to one I believe or might have even been 22 to one uh to win this week as well uh leads the PJ tour in bogey
Avoidance uh great ball Striker everything that you kind of want uh for this event uh he did miss the cut here last year but he finished finished ninth the year before so he has had at least some success and I think I don’t have it
In front of me but I think this time last year like Sam burn just kind of hit a cold streak for a couple months and just wasn’t playing he was awful on approach this time last year if I remember correctly yeah I I I believe that is correct um
Certainly not the case now last four starts T6 10th T3 T10 um so he is striking the ball well he’s actually putting the ball well uh as well so uh great distance off the team he’s been accurate the past couple weeks off the tea as well uh so I like this
For top five plus 375 burnsy our our top five picks kind of mirror each other because I’m I I have a really hard time betting on Sam Burns because sometimes the numbers just don’t look attractive enough to me but like yeah the finishes and like his profile obviously are
Working out so it’s just someone who I have a hard time pulling the trigger on so you know we’re kind of miring one another me with ludig and you with Sam Burns and Sam Burns is actually available right if you’re interested a FanDuel at 25 to1 I think that’s a
Pretty good price for him if you want to bet him out right um as well I might just add that out right to my card um there you go uh let’s move on to our pick to win the Arnold Palmer Invitational I want to see I want to see
If I can if I can make this dramatic here oh no that’s just me how do I make it so it’s you don’t know I I was gonna make it dramatic for for your pick to win uh don’t know how go ahead give me your pick to win this week you are going
All Scandinavia oh yeah with Jake naap the honorary Scandinavian obviously mixed in there but I’m going with Victor havin man plus 1600 I think we’re getting a little bit of value because of his slow start to 2024 he hasn’t played particularly well and the shocking part
Was that the Sentry in Pebble Beach his approach play really struggled and that’s kind of the DNA of vikor hin is being a ball Striker but at the Genesis I started to see the trend line that I’m looking for and if you remember going into the Genesis I had will zot Tores
For a top 20 when I should have been more aggressive with that because he started trending and shaking off the rust I think hin has been shaking off the rust as well and so at the Genesis he gained in on approach in three of four rounds and he also gained ball
Striking in all four rounds so he started driving the ball better and started playing on approach better his last two starts here great history he was T10 last year and the runner up in 2022 he’s also putted well here he’s gained putting in the past two years
Gained Strokes putting in the past two years here as well I think that his around the green play though it has been a little shaky we saw improve over the past calendar year to a point where I think he can still finish very strongly here he finished T10 last year while
Losing Strokes around the green I don’t think he’s going to lose Strokes around the green with how he’s improved in that area and so I think as he’s trending I think this might be a good price to get him just a SL just slightly early based on his 2024 form so
Far yeah I I see where you’re coming from I am just cautious with him because of that form but I mean he hasn’t he has improved at least his last start of the Genesis so yeah it is an interesting play because this should be a great course fit for
Him success here the past two years 10th and second place the year before uh it all makes sense I personally want to wait another week or so before I’m I’m I’m just quite ready to jump on the Victor train but like like you said maybe now is the time to do it because
Of you know not great form recently so it’s an yeah I think he I think he opened up at 12 to1 and then on t uh and then yesterday or later yesterday he was 16 to one so like the price went like you got a better price as the day went
On so I think like like I said I’m trying to you’re right it’s probably smarter to wait a little bit and play for a top 10 or a top five in the near future like at the Players if he plays well this week but I do think that
Trying if you’re trying to get it early this is a good price to do so because he’s only GNA get shorter odds from here on out if he plays well yep uh I certainly agree with that now you sent me your picks and I said you’re a team
Scandinavia this week I went to go bet a prop bet for who would finish as the top Scandinavian and uh valami uh not listed so I went down a rabbit hole completely off topic Finland I guess isn’t considered a Scandinavian country how so by some resources but then Wikipedia says it
Does so I if anyone knows whether or not Finland SC a Scandinavian country tell me because I went down through like a 15-minute Rabbit Hole uh when I was supposed to be writing articles today but whether or not Finland was a because his name wasn’t listed I went to go bet
I think it was on B MGM for top Scandinavian and he wasn’t listed so I was like why isn’t he listed Finland not a Scandinavian country and I went down to rabbit hole and I couldn’t figure out the definitive answer I mean Wikipedia is the end all be in my book so I’m
Going with their opinion well then bet MGM needs to add valami to uh to their Scandinavian prop bet uh my pick to win uh if you follow me on Twitter SLX you already know who it is because I I teased it earlier I tweeted uh yesterday
When I locked in the beted I said I may or may not have bet on a certain golfer whose name starts with X who I said I’d never bet on again oh no I did it Cody I I couldn’t help myself we’re back baby I don’t think any human being on
This planet has been on Xander shle more often in the past five years than I have and he has lost every single time I’ve yet to win an not right bet on Xander shley I mean he doesn’t have very many wins so it’s not like a the only win I
Can think of is he won Olympic gold and I did not bet him on him doing Olympic gold the last olymp how many wins does Xander Schley have on the PJ tour it can’t be many I think it’s like six I don’t it’s not even that many I’m
Looking it up right now and I’m also going to tell you the he has seven PGA Tour wins that’s shocking I’ve not been on him for any of them and the last one was the 2022 Scottish open yeah I guess that is a co- PGA Tour event I guess I guess that is
Technically but then he W tra yeah I do remember when he W tra I’ve yet to I’ve bet on him so many times the past five years and I’ve yet to win an outright winner on him I said this year especially after the Ryder Cup I didn’t
Like how he handled himself at the Ryder Cup I went on records saying I was done betting on Xander Schley but then I was looking at the numbers this week and I can’t resist he seems like the perfect bet this week uh ball striking uh and approach shots from 200 plus 13th in
Ball striking third on tour and first in the field and approach proximity from 200 plus yards this season he’s also coming into this event in fantastic form T4 at the Genesis gain Strokes across all four major areas so he actually has uh some of the ball striking not quite
To the level of Rory and Scotty but he has he’s been putting a lot better than Rory and Scotty has um he’s also second on the tour in bogey avoidance which is going to be huge this week everything is lining up for Xander you got the course
Fit you got the recent form uh I don’t think he has a great course history which is one thing that no 39th last year and then 2020 uh 2020 finished 24th so not great course history but fantastic form fantastic course fit I’m back in baby I respect I respect your gumption for
Doing it man but I think I looked at Xander pretty hard but I think what turned me away was the lack of course history because for someone like Xander who feels like a chronic underperformer I feel like having such a good course fit like this I mean histor like
Xander’s game hasn’t changed much this has always been what should be a good course fit and the fact that he hasn’t finished well here worries me a little bit yeah but I mean outside of the Pebble Beach where he finished t-54 before the the four of his last five
Events he went T10 T3 T9 T4 maybe I should have bet on him top five and then made Sam Burns might pick to winbe Xander came I don’t think those PJ tour wins I’m looking at on his Wikipedia ever happened I think that’s I don’t living in a simulation I
Don’t think he’s ever won an event ever Ian’s being gastate about Xander sh uh all right so there’s our picks let’s get to close to the win I have taken a 2-1 lead after winning the last two weeks uh if you want to tail any of these picks it might be by somehow
Betting on my closest to the win player because I’ve been I think I all the last three weeks even when I lost uh my guy finished T10 so uh I think I fin picked these guys to be top 20 in three straight weeks so uh you go first who do
You got for a close to the win yeah you’ve got me shaking in my boots a little bit but I’m going with Taylor Moore he’s at 250 to one so I went pretty far down the odds board but he has two starts here t39 and t42 so pretty decent course history for someone
Who’s going to be this far down the odds board he’s Top 40 on tour in proximity from 200 yards away above average length off the T he’s gaining on approach over his last 16 rounds almost a half stroke and he’s in decent form three top 40s
And five starts this year no Mis Cuts so I think he’s just been a pretty steady golfer who has played pretty steady at this course so that’s kind of where I’m looking uh all right Taylor Moore 250 to one to be your close to the Win Pick I’m
Going to go with uh Patrick Rogers uh as my close to the win pick did did you already pick him once this year not yet no um yeah coming off a T6 uh at the Mexico open he also had a strong finish here last year I believe uh no but he did
Finish seventh here back in 2017 uh missed the cut here last year though but he is coming actually he’s had a pretty solid start to 2024 T14 at the century t24 at the Sony Open T9 at the Farmers Insurance and then T6 at the Mexico open
So um to be hon honest I struggled actually to find a guy that I like for close to the win this week um Patrick Rogers long off the te as well de I think he’s 25th in bogey avoidance he checked enough boxes he’s gon my pick
This week I like I mean Patrick Rogers for those who don’t know he was one of those guys coming out of college who was supposed to be one of the next big things and it just kind of never happened for him but the talent is like
When you watch him when he’s on his talent is unbelievable yeah absolutely uh all right so that would normally be the end of the show uh but we uh there is an alternate field field event this week the Puerto Rico open we’re not going to go through and do top 20 top 10
Top five we’re just going to each give out our best bet to win the alternate field uh field event the Puerto Rico open so why don’t you start us off who’s your pick to win that one uh that would be none other than Brandon woo who I was
On on the Mexico open for a top 10 just missed that and he was a disaster at the cognisant last week he lost six Strokes more than six Strokes on approach over two rounds when he missed cut like that’s that’s hard to do but he was very
Bad but now we’re back to a place where he’s tended to thrive in his career he has two starts at the Puerto Rico open it’s a t7 and a T3 and a big part of that is he putts really well on pass palum that’s just kind of been his game
Is when he gets on these Resort style courses with the pass palum greens he putts extremely well and though he lost six Strokes on approach over two rounds last week approach play has been his strength I’m looking at his data golf profile right now last week was was
Tough oh it was so bad man I didn’t have anything on him thank God but like I was like I still had him favored it on PGA Tour app and I was like my God what are you doing man but yeah his approach game is not typically that bad over seven of
His last night events dating back to the 3M that had shot length he’s gained uh like he’s gained on approach so approach play is normally a strength of his I don’t expect last I think last week is an outlier more than anything and I think that when he get when he gets
Under these greens he’s going to putt well and getting him at 35 to one I like that all right I like it um if anyone’s been listening to the show especially a couple weeks ago you should be able to guess who I’m going with this is a guy
Who I praised about how good as pass palum uh green putting was uh and when I broke down my handicap when I bet him to finish top 20 uh at the Mexico open uh one of the reasons why that he was a defending PGA Tour winner or not a
Defending but he was a PGA past PGA Tour winner in the event1 was Puerto Rico open and he ended up cashing a top 20 for us at plus 750 so it would be Blasphemous to not go back to him to win this event for the second time it is
Martin trainer uh and he’s he was available at 80 to1 I don’t know if the 80 to1 number is still out there some sports books have him as short as like 60 to1 uh let me see if I can find I think it was DraftKings I beted at 80 to1 that
Was the best number and I think other play said like 60 to1 66 to1 uh but yeah Martin trainer based solely on that um can the crap out of the golf ball on pass palum greens he even did it a couple weeks ago at the Mexico open
Where he did finish in the top 20 and then last week uh not many people watched this because it was a corn fairy Tour event but he followed up with a T5 uh finished at the Argentina open as well so I mean his last three starts to
Be fair two of them were on the corn fairy tour but T8 corn fairy tour uh t19 Mexico open PJ tour and then T5 at last week’s uh corn fairy Tour event so he is playing good golf returns to an event that he has won in the past and we can
Get him at 80 to1 seems like a no-brainer to me I mean you know when Martin trainer’s 8 to one at the Puerto Rico open you have to fire on it you have to uh oh I bet him at DraftKings he’s all the way down to 55 to one now
DraftKings so 80 to1 might not be available anymore uh I’m just I’m just that sharp when I locked that in yesterday absolutely just to see if um he’s available at a better price somewhere else I’m going to look that up why don’t we finish off here with
LPGA uh we’re going to do Squad rides for LPGA um I do my picks for LPGA first thing Tuesday morning and then Cody you look at yours and then if we uh agree on one we’re gonna give it to Squad ride we did last week youa Sasa let us down down
A little bit little too too little too late from her um but we do have one that we like again this week so why don’t you talk that while I try to see where the best odds for Mar trainer are yeah so this is uh Blue Bay I believe is the
Name of the event it’s over in China this week on the LPGA and we’re going with Alban Valenzuela I believe I’m saying that correctly yep and uh she is 66 to one uh when you look at her T to Green numbers should not be she is right
Up there on the lpj season in terms of Strokes Game T to green with like your Nelly quarters like the big like the big names that you expect Patty T I believe is up there as well so she’s right up there her short has been a bit of a
Disaster I believe it was last week but I think that when you have that TD green profile all you need is one hot week and this is another course where length and tia green is going to be super crucial so I think if we just get the putter to
About average she is great value at 66 to one yeah I agree uh I did bet on her that was that was I didn’t give oute that pick on the show last week but I was on Valenzuela last week as well um but yeah her putting was horrific last
Week she lost 7.54 stroke putting last week 1.34 Strokes around the green her short game was terrible uh but it was good a couple uh two weeks ago when she finished second place to Patty T um but yeah we are like you mentioned we are
Getting a golfer at 66 to1 odds who uh is third in the field and strokes gain TI green at plus 9.31 second in the field and strokes gain Approach at 9 plus 29 if there is a PJ Tour event where a top three golfer in Strokes gain
Tia green was 66 to1 every every single person on the planet would bet would be betting on them um like if you look at Strokes game TD green right now on the PJ tour it’s Scotty Sheffer it’s you know I don’t know if Roy’s top three
Right now but it’s it’s the big name guys who are the top three so uh yeah we certainly need Valenzuela to put a little bit better this week but it’s not even that strong of a field there are certainly some some good golfers here um but like Nelly quter is not playing
Brook Henderson’s not playing again um uh there is L Lil vu’s golfing here Lydia Cole like there are Seline bouier there are some good golfers here but it’s it’s probably an average to below average field so the fact you can get Valenzuela a top three ball Striker on
The LPGA at 66 to1 is you have to bet it you have absolutely must this is the kind of thing that I’m talking about when I think there’s an edge in LPGA because like I’ll look at a week and I’ll handicap and I’ll be like one of
The best ball Strikers in the field this week is at this kind of a price so uh it’s a no-brainer for me yeah absolutely uh I did find Martin trainer at 66 to1 at B MGM to win the Puerto Rico open that’s probably going to be the best
Price I don’t think you’re going to find any more 80 to ones but um that’s the that’s the benefit of me placing some of these bets on Monday uh let’s get to the chat here and then we’ll close out the show uh first uh got to get rid of that
Trying to produce the show while I’m on it uh here we go uh Paul ask late to the game thoughts on kyama top 20 at plus 210 for the Arnold Palmer gain Strokes in all five uh events this year great off the T and approach one last year obviously top 10
In avoiding Bogies yeah obviously the defending Champ here Cody do you think kyama is a decent bet for top 20 for top 20 absolutely that’s probably as aggressive as I would go with it just because kid yama’s form can be a little erratic even though it NE not
Necessarily has been this year but I do think that it’s a good obviously a good course fit and he is like his he’s a te to Green Maven that’s kind of what he does and his putter kind of comes and goes so I think that this is a really
Good fit and those are those are nice odds for you know last year’s winner for just a top 20 Yeah you mentioned it he’s a te to green guy and then it’s whether or not he putts well is whether or not he’s going to finish in the top 10 last
I mean his best putting performance over the last year was when he won this event last uh last year gained 1.51 Strokes per round putting uh but then if you look at like his rounds and his events the majority of the time he’s he’s losing strokes and then the only time
This year in 2024 that he gained Strokes put was at the Phoenix Open and he finished T8 um so betting on him to finish to win top five top 10 you’re betting on him to have a good week putting um top 20 is probably the way to
Go because you can still sneak into the top 20 based on TIA green play alone so uh I think that’s I also agree with you I think if you’re going to bet on the defending champ stick to top 20 plus 210 is a pretty good price for that yeah
It’s honestly very similar to your Cory Conor’s top 20 bet honestly like it’s the exact same profile as long as they like they can finish in the top 20 just based on their ball striking alone Yeah Tim asked sneak in your best uh college hoops pick the day I’ve not looked at
Any college basketball today unfortunately um I have not I’m gonna go Florida minus one and a half Florida minus one and a half hosting Alabama done there you go toss that in with Scotty top 10 that’s on Cody by the way I like the record of show that was not
Me that was Cody so if it loses go tweet at him to be clear I haven’t handicapped any of the college basketball slate for today that was just the first line I saw that I liked yeah I’ve I’ve been too busy with other stuff today I haven’t
Been able to get to college basketball unfortunately but uh if you go check out Reed Wallock articles in bets side he’ll have some uh his daily dunk article he’ll have his best college basketball picks there pick one of those and you’re probably better off uh and do you still
Put put on an article with your three oat writes for the week yes uh both in uh PGA and LPGA head over to fansided.com bsid it if you go to the golf section uh you will find those I tweeted out uh earlier today my LPGA article so I am on Valenzuela I also
Have a pick that’s 28 to1 and a pick that’s 80 to1 um but just because I want to get some clicks on my article for selfish reasons and so I can keep a job uh if you want those picks the name of those picks then you you’re gonna have to go to fansided.com
Bsid uh and my pj tour out right picks are just a mixture of the picks I gave o today uh it’s Xander to win and I’m also betting on I did not bet Sam Burns to win yet but I’m also betting on minu Le to win win and Cory Connor to win yeah
And you can go to fansided.com proper and check out my picks I have you know a few extra top 20 sprinkles a little top2 parlay in there so you know a couple extra picks you can check out there and you do some DF you do a DFS article as
Well correct yeah that that normally comes out on Wednesdays but yeah I’ll have that up tomorrow keep an eye out for that tomorrow I don’t do any DFS stuff so uh if you want DFS stuff Cody’s a got to go to um all righty thank uh thank you to everyone for watching uh
Subscribe to the bsed YouTube channel or watching this on Twitch follow us on there follow us on Twitter Ian mabson the sizzle 20 best of luck this week gamble or blessed we got a lot of golf to bet on because there’s a DP World Tour event too did not have time to give
It a pick for that but uh if you want to bet also live golf too also live great Point live golf to where are they are they in China they’re in Hong Kong Hong Kong yep uh and the LPGA is in China so there you go lots of golf to bet on this
Week best of luck with all your golf bets um and we will talk to you again next week for the players correct yes sir Players Championship one of the best events of the Year talk to you then we’ll see you
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