Pat Mayo speaks with 6-Time caddie at the PLAYERS Championship, John Rathouz about course strategy, which players fit the mold, and some Sawgrass stories. Plus, what courses he sees as similar, how players are scouting courses in practice rounds and his looper friends who left for the LIV TOUR. At 36:13. Mayo takes a deep dive into stats at Fantasy National making early 2024 PLAYERS CHAMPIONSHIP Picks with a first look and research for this week’s PGA TOUR event.
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SHOW INDEX
00:00 Intro
2:02 Sawgrass Stories
5:01 Comp Courses
9:12 Scouting Sawgrass
13:58 New Caddie/Player Teams
30:15 LIV Caddies
36:13 Course & Stats
51:30 Field + Stat Model + Results
56:47 Recent Form
1:09:08 Mixed Condition Model
1:14:30 Form
1:17:25 Wyndham Championship
1:21:17 Pete Dye
1:28:31 Short Courses
1:32:07 MCM Results
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I was a caddy I’d be angling to get on the bag of someone on live yeah yeah you know I think you didn’t hear I have yet to hear a guy that said his player from the PJ tour was going and he and he took a stand and said I’m not going with
You a experience experience Experience Mayo experience experience welcome to the pat Mayo experience presented by Underdog fantasy code Mayo Underdog fantasy right now will get you a deposit match up to 100 bucks so go do that and help out the show smash the like sub to the channel while you are here because this is show
One in a week full of Players Championship preview the resource the C course preview plus we have caddy John rat house on the line to break down the course and share some stories from the PLAYERS Championship with us and different guys that he’s looped for over that time and maybe some uh insight
There some caddy player relationships currently going on so this is show number one we got stuff coming out for you all week sub to my newsletter that is the easiest place to track anything it is completely free you can find the link down in the description and if you
Didn’t know as of yet two things one the pat Mayo experience listeners league is back it is now on Underdog we’re doing major season best ball drafts it’s already 30% full you can find that link on Underdog under drafts under major season it’s public so it’s going to feel
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That I’ve done on it up on the network right now I’m super pumped I’m doing some live streams on the show doing drafts but if we fill this one quickly because it starts at the Masters we fill it quickly we’ll get another and another bigger lower rake bigger buyouts payouts
So I would say just go fill it up as quickly as possible Cod Mayo underdog right now and if you want $1,000 in Underdog credits five of you will get that for The Players Championship with my new partnership for Underdog fantasy go to the description right now there is
A 15sec survey down there you fill out the 15sec survey you are in the draw to win one of the5 $1,000 prizes so go do that I’ve now taken up too much of your time we got a ton of stuff coming out fantasy national.com Mayo is where I
Will be doing my walkthrough at the end of this video you can always go through the time codes I go through the stats run the models but to bring him in right now John rat house who has his own show which comes out monthly right now talking to Cades and talking through all
The relationships on the PGA tour but you’ve looped here a few times right yeah thanks for having me on Pat yeah I was trying to think back like I feel like I’ve looped five or six players championships for about three different guys so uh it’s always a fun week I I
Like that you have to think about like it would be funny like I can remember such vivid de Tales of like bad beats that I’ve suffered especially I’ve been such a gigantic loser at the Players Championship over like the basically since Maron kimer won the playoffs I’ve
Been a loser at the Players Championship I think that was 2013 so it’s h it’s been a bad go for me at the Players Championship I just I can’t figure out this score so I’m going to try something different when we get to the research part but I really wanted
To bring you in but I would remember everything maybe that’s just my memory but it’s a job when you’re out there right yeah it’s a job when you’re out there I think you kind of remember the really high highs and you remember the really low lows right and then as you go
On over years I mean I started in 2004 uh haven’t been doing it as much lately but like yeah they kind of some of them bleed together I think you and I were talking a little bit before I think some of my you know favorite highlights over
The years certainly I remember the first time I ever did the caddy shot there on uh Wednesday which is just an absolute hilarious deal like you have some really good players out there uh that are caddies that hit some good shots and you have some really good caddies that are
Really bad players I mean I remember watching Steve Williams top one into the water my first go round there was a shank into the flower bed um my highlight there was hitting the green a few years later so like I hold that closely um and you know Sheamus had a
Hole in one there uh a few years back on on number four which I think was the first Ace ever there that was a really cool deal the day before St Patrick’s Day um you know and I I remember uh being there for the pandemic one more recently with Martin lard and then
Retrieving a putter out of the the the ditch behind the F50 for John Merrick probably I don’t know 12 years ago uh The Elephant Man John Merrick what uh what happened to his putter exactly you know he he three putted number four which can be done and he was so mad and
And he went just chucked it into the T box I mean you know into the garden behind number five and I to this day I wish I would have left it there to be quite honest um but I went back and retrieved it you know like it’s kind of
Sometimes as a caddy like that’s your role uh maybe could have drawn A Line in the Sand there but he ended up having a a good season maybe not a good players so let’s talk some strategy at this course and what we’re looking for we’ve seen a lot of crossover between caloa
Weirdly enough and maybe it’s just the top end players have always played kaaloa top end players tend to do well at sawra except like once every five years or so then you get your random n that web Simpson’s not a good player obviously he’s won a major championship
But he wins at 80 to1 we’ve seen the middle to top of the board do really well at Saw Grass over the years with Scotty being no exception a year ago he basically broke even putting in fact he may have even lost Strokes putting last year and still won by like four or
Whatever it was that’s how good he was T green and chip in everything in but like cam Smith ends up getting it down we’ve seen Ricky Fowler end up getting it done at this score so the big Cor I would look at capala being one but the biggest
One that sticks out in my mind is the Windam Championship Webb has won both of those Stenson has won both of those there’s like five people SE wo has won both of those so like now when we’re getting into some of these shorter type players that aren’t the actual
Superstars on the PGA tour these are the guys that have won both wind and one of the PLAYERS Championship have you caded at all at Sedgefield before oh yeah got at Sedgefield I was there with uh Stephen jger two years ago he shot six 62 on Sunday which was only one stroke
Worse than Tom Kim shooting 61 that year that he won so I that Coral are makes a lot of sense I mean I think when you think about it uh you know the players you’re dialing it back off the tea in a lot of places a lot of instances uh
That’s what happens at Sedgefield um and you got to be a good iron player um it just really rewards it when you talk about Scotty sheffler like top tier player T to Green game on fire saving himself self at the short game too like that’s that’s what you want there but
Then it also opens up for these guys that are like below tier number one and you know guys that are in good form or guys that are have always been good iron players that can find the Fairway off the tea and now you don’t have major championship pressure right like you’re
Like hey I can go ahead and win the PLAYERS Championship I’m not going to think about the US Open you know because these guys they look up and down the range they size people up and you know we’re all humans and so I think that’s a
Little bit of a Factor here where you see some of those middle longer odd guys that that can get it done here yeah and and I guess because you when you take out because the way that I always try to break it down I’ll see if you agree with
This is that you know in any given day Scotty Sheffer can lead the field in putting that can happen it’s not likely to happen just based on what we’ve seen from him over the course of the past 18 months or so but it can happen there is
No way that brt sniger is going to be in this field and out drive Scotty Sheffer it’s just not going to happen but at Saw Grass that could be equalized right yeah I mean yeah I think certainly could could do it off the tea right but then
Now the iron game is that going to be present and you could have a hot week with your irons you could be coming in with some really good form and like above your your Baseline and that could translate over you know especially if you’re a winner on tour um you know but
You know you I think you have to have the iron game to complement it too because it sets up the putting out there and I know that’s just like seems like a really you know nor easy thing to talk about like it’s like yeah duh well I mean the greens out
There like if you get them in the right sections they’re not terribly difficult now if you start getting in the wrong sections or you get shortsighted you’ve got major problems and and so that’s where the consistency and and you know the top the top Echelon iron play gets
Rewarded yeah so I guess my point was more that the shorter players seem to be at Le have less of a disadvantage here versus Riviera or Tory Pines or a place like that totally no you’re absolutely right because yeah you’re not having to hit driver as much or if a guy you know
Skot sh’s goingon to hit three-wood Brandt can hit driver right so yeah it it that’s a totally you know it’s a plotter Golf Course right I mean I think that’s you know we hear that narrative a lot too it’s like you got to play this
Pete D course you know to the corner of the dog legs you got to know when you can press it up and most oftentimes the answer is no we’re going to all play to the same area so do you think that benefits so when you guys are out
Scouting the course so when you’re doing your walkthr in the round before like is that what you’re looking for it’s like oh if I get it to this spot on the power five this is go time if I don’t like it doesn’t matter how good the wind is
Whatever is going on like you have to have the fortitude to say I am laying up here and not making a huge number yeah and I think that’s where the analytics these days can come in that you know handy and all these guys have an analytics team too and so like if you
Combine that data that you’re getting with your caddy Instinct and kind of where you know your player strengths are too like you can definitely formulate a plan this is a place where you you see more caddies with their heads in their pin sheets this week you see more
Caddies walking the golf course than normal this week you you have to be on your game so to speak you know as a caddy as well uh W with it this week to to Really contend and play well I was trying to think back uh the year that
Jason day won the PLAYERS Championship were you there that year I can’t remember what year it was it it was the year where the Saturday was impossible yeah I don’t think I don’t think I was there I don’t think I was there that year yeah it was the I I think Ken Duke
Was like five under on a Saturday and like everyone else was 80 it was like I don’t know what’s going on man Ken Duke the ultimate showman that guy missed that guy yeah I don’t I wasn’t there for that but you can see like the bad weather things can come in too uh
Especially now we’re playing it in March I don’t know when that was that Jason was there but you know this March I was looking at the weather forecast and it looks pretty good for next week you know I mean we’ll see here for this week you
Know the the uh it looks like it’s you know 60s and up into 80s and the wind out of the South so like I think it’s going to be a nice week of weather for the guys to kind of attack this place a little bit yeah I got it me uh me and
Tambo got it way wrong the year that Justin Thomas ended up winning because we stacked one side of the wave thinking like oh like just to look at the forecast it’s like oh my God there’s so much wind in the afternoon on Thursday and it translates into Friday morning
I’ll just play the guys and I’ll bet guys that are early on Thursday and late on Friday this is perfect we’re going to and everyone kind of did I think 7% of the field on DraftKings ended up going that way and 1% went the other way and
All that happened was there was a bit of rain there was a delay and then all of the guys that I picked ended up in just the worst weather for like two and a half days because that was the one that went on and on and on and on and on and
Then it ended up coming down to Justin Thomas battling out of that terrible maybe it was was it Justin Thomas who won now I can’t even remember it may have been cam Smith who won just trying to run these all through my mind maybe cam Smith well cam yeah cam Smith that
Was cam Smith was the bad weather one because I remember he was like able to just camp out of his house the whole week right and he like got a good draw and he lived like 15 minutes from the golf course and I mean of course you just remember it’s just another bad
Players championship for me yeah I mean that happens so do you think Jagger actually has like I don’t want to say like a chance to win obviously he has a chance to win he’s in the field but is this does this course set up well for
Him I mean I think so like I think he’s got a I think he’s got a I think he’d be a nice placement bet you know because I think you see the guys that are playing well rise to the top in these weeks because they come in with confidence and
You know Ste Stephen made a great caddy hire he’d been just kind of not having a full-time guy forever and he he he hired Henry Diana in the off season who had a lot of success you know with Tom hogi when he won at Pebble uh with Charles H
II for all these years very stable veteran caddy great green reader as well and they’ve had some nice results this year so yeah I think I think gger sets up well uh in that sense this week to be you know certainly you know you look at
His odds on a top 10 BET and stuff and you know if you want to throw a little small money on a on a possible win like you know why not he’s won on you know on the corn fairy tour a lot this would be
A big one for him to break through first time win on the PGA tour but he’s playing well that that’s happened before like I remember this was sort of like Cooter’s big win and really kind of stood up as the big win of his career like breaking onto the scene this is
Where Sergio got it done this is where Adam Scott got it done super young I think this was the biggest win of Stephen ames’s career did Stephen Ames win this I feel like yeah he did yeah I’m just looking at the Windham Championship right now so to close that
Windham Championship Loop kizner won the Windom he lost in a playoff uh to Ricky and Sergio at the Players Championship but other than that we have Stenson won both seu won both Davis Love is won both Sergio has won both web has won both and that’s just from the past 12 years okay
And so let me throw this one at you that I was kind of wanted to highlight anyways one of the past winners that we mentioned earlier this episode is Tom Kim who who is on Tom Kim’s bag now Paul Torri Paul Torri uh is a member at Saw
Grass Paul Torri was on the bag there for uh you know for that win with web Simpson I mean you know so that that’ll be an interesting one I think they they’ve had an one maybe good tournament so far um Tom’s form hasn’t been great but I would certainly put little star
Next to Tom Kim this week kind of see how he how he’s looking early on the week because he’s got the guy in the bag that can guide him around so far with Tom Kim uh I mean he had a really bad I guess Sunday SL Monday at the former
Haunted the now of the cognizant classic but his irons have been fine like and he’s hitting every single Fairway like that’s why you would like Tom Kim here because he’s one of the few guys like I always thought moraca would be way better at sass than he’s big because he
Can hit driver and hit every Fairway anyway so he’s never losing anything off the te um I guess it’s just you know the putting and sometimes you you make one bad shot you’re in the water that’s the one thing about the stat analysis that’s why I really want to talk to you about
This because I can run all the models I want I find the Florida swing is notoriously not good for stat modeling because I remember Paul Casey had like never missed a cut at the players that he put two in the water on 17 and he was like plus 12 or something yeah right
Yeah the wind is so much more volatile the weather is more volatile around there and then you have uh a lot more water opportunities to hit the ball in the water and those are there out of the players big numbers like you have to avoid double bogeys and you know guys
That are a little shaky mentally you know can can find their way into the water and and then just wreck your scorecard quickly yeah the other thing I mean with Tom Kim the irons’s have been good he’s deadly accurate off the tea it just his putting has been atrocious so
Maybe Tori can help him with that here yes I I mean I’m sure Tom’s what he he’s going to be way down the OSB boards from what people might like he’s going to have value right I would think uh he keeps coming in at like 3540 to one but
He keeps sucking so and no one’s betting him so if we can get him at like I don’t want to say 50 would be like right around the threshold where I would start thinking about it but you know if no one is betting him at 50 all of a sudden 60
75 80 now we’re in that the web Simpson range basically mhh yeah another one that’s that was just uh interesting to me was that was part of that whole switch over was uh Joe scin going over to Oar and they haven’t gotten off to the greatest of starts but I would think
That this golf course would set up really well for him um and then obviously Joe was on the bag when Ricky won he’s got a lot of experience around here as well so I don’t know quite what oar’s form is going into this but he
Seems like a guy that gonna hit a lot of Fairways gonna hit a lot of greens you know has the balls to get it done if he gets in the mix maybe still a little young so that’s interesting one well the issue I’ve had with uh ludvig so far is
That his wedges are absolutely terrible like versus the very high-end players like know if you could just somehow paste Brenan Todd’s wedge game onto ludvig he’d be the number one player in the world right now uh even after like nine months or something like that but it’s interesting to see where he has
Done well because you would think like like I bet him to win at beill um beill has not concluded I don’t think that he’s going to win after seeing a little bit of what I’ve seen so far however second at Pebble Beach super short course he won the RSM classic those are
Not long courses whatsoever like short Bermuda type courses John Deere fourth place it’s funny that we see this sometimes with certain guys like Woodland was like this where almost all of his best finishes in his career have come at shorter courses versus long courses although in our minds it’s like
Oh yeah he bombs it of course he’s going to be great at long courses he’s not and all of a sudden he plays really well at the shorter courses another guy like that is Taylor pendrith who tends to play really well at the shorter courses versus the longer courses despite the
Fact that he averages like 320 off the te like I don’t do you have a re like why is it a mental thing or is it just I mean some of it could be there you’re looking at like uh strength of field um you know and that could be a
Little bit of a factor uh but yeah I mean like that’s interesting with ludvig with like you talk about uh Pebble Beach and there’s like tons of short irons out there and you’re saying statistically like man it doesn’t look like he he is you know up to Snuff in that right now
Yet he goes out and plays well so um yeah some of them it’s just like you know it’s like that thing where the player says you know I show up there that week and I just feel good like that’s that place just fits me for whatever reason I can’t explain it
Either right it’s a little asteris next to it it It just strikes me as odd that these bombers would play well with the shorter courses maybe it’s because they can dial back off the tea even though it’s such a weapon for all of them that there’s just something in their minds
That they’re just more comfortable hitting irons off the te or something sure yeah I think that’s probably a factor I’d be interested to see like if they play the par fives even better than usual ual too you know because they have an advantage coming into the green there
Maybe they make you know more birdies or a couple more Eagles throughout the week you know yeah I mean this is where digging in even more someone brought it up uh yesterday I think it was Justin Ray on Twitter kind of talked about or it may have actually been step Hennessy
Or Chris Powers I don’t want to misattribute who it was it was one of those three I think that Victor uh was really mad about one of the shots that he hit on a par three and ended up rolling to like 5et or something like
That and people were like how can you be so mad we see it with hi all the time too is that we’re charting Strokes gained on shots Ho by hole we can try to figure that part out but the point that they were making was Victor
Has a spot that he is trying to hit and the reason that that he’s mad isn’t that he hit a really great shot which he did it’s that he missed the spot that he was aiming at by so much and ended up getting lucky that these players are now
Actually having like you mentioned their own analytics teams and they’re tracking their own Strokes gained from where their actual targets are versus what the results are have you been hearing this yeah that’s absolutely I mean that’s you know I think that’s been a thing on tour forever but like now you’ve got this
Extra component that you can factor in and maybe like uh you know Matt Evy was on U the eyes on golf podcast for this week talking about Bay Hill and I mean he had a great great answer uh about how he approached Sunday where he’s like I’m
Not a data guy at all and I ran into horty in the locker room and he said you’re too BR you know you’re too uh aggressive on Sundays I’m going to give you this blueprint to dial it back and be more conservative and what he did he
Went out and won so like you know there is something to that I think you know some of the reactions you’re seeing too though uh harder to tell like where maybe contact isn’t what somebody wanted right and then obviously these guys have this you know barometer that’s greater
Than the average golfer and so it’s all relative too there on on some of those you you never quite know what those reactions are for but certainly hitting your spots is is a big deal out there uh so you mentioned uh oer Tom Kim new cadd
On the bag uh both caddies have caddied for previous Players Championship winners What are some of the other new pairings that you find interesting right now yeah so other one that just kind of like went into this week uh you know I don’t know what you think about sunjay
Right now um you know will Willcox jumped on his bag and they really got off to a good start and and you know I have been hearing some things that sunjay kind of struggling with hitting the ball both ways and I think that shows itself in its result
Will did have that Ace on number 17 years ago when he was playing so I think that’s kind of an interesting thing so the what I want to ask you is it just me or does sunjay look 20 pounds lighter oh really he he like he just he looked his
Body looks different like he always looked kind of like portly when he was out there and he looks like spelt now and I remember this must have been 10 years ago the Swedish porn king Carl Peterson he lost like 50 pounds one like offseason and he
Sucked when he came back and he’s like I I don’t have my swing anymore he’s like my my entire life I’ve been this size I know how to swing with one body type he’s like he basically just said he ate ice cream for two months and gained the
Weight back so he can play again to get it back yeah interesting maybe sunj is hitting the gym too hard you know he’s got a big head still um it it’s a [ __ ] Bucket Man absolutely massive so yeah I don’t know what’s up with sunj right now but
Will’s on the bag and I like will on the bag for him I think I think that’s gonna stick around uh you know I’ve been I I ran into Joe laava who I had on the first episode of my podcast this season and I saw him out in at Riviera and
Obviously he’s with Patrick kley now and they’ve had some really good finishes they have yet to close the door I thought they would get it done on the west coast swing it didn’t quite happen um I like that that grouping it’s a little bit different for Patrick than
Maybe uh what he’s had in the past him and Revy were really good together but that’s an interesting one to keep an eye on uh for this week as well well um Can Patrick hlay and Joe run into the guy that gave Matt everyy the Sunday
Blueprint and have him do up a Sunday blueprint for Patrick Klay so he can actually win a tournament on Sunday okay yeah that’s a fair point that’s a fair point I mean I don’t know if if uh Patrick has a data team you know I’d be
Interested to find that out but um yeah Sundays it’s hard to win golf tournaments on the PGA tour oh for sure and listen you’re you’re a loser who can’t close until you close then you’re the guy always WIS one and then all people forg thear that they’ built in theirs about like
Imagine and it’s so much that tiger ruined this for everyone that he won so much that it became this like and it’s it’s a Once in every 40 years type player that comes through that it’s like yeah guys don’t win at this rate think I I always thought about this and
Obviously Jack has the most he has 18 but I think he has like 402 place finishes top three finishes in majors and that record gets held up like oh my God this guy has been amazing in major championships year-over-year and although he won 18 of them if it was in
Today’s day and age with the discourse that we have now he would be kind of branded a loser because he didn’t have more Majors that’s how this would work for sure yeah I see what you’re saying and you know me it makes me think of Brooks kka a little bit right like
Brooks kind of talks about how you know he’s like hey when I show up I know that you know two-thirds of these guys three4 of them don’t even have a chance so I’m not even worried about them I’m just going to worry about myself and and
We’ll see where it falls this week if I have what it takes you know and I’m GNA go for it you know and maybe I might reflect afterwards and be like man I wish I would have played that hole a little differently or or whatever and
That’s what cost me in the end um so that’s interesting another one about tiger that I I find interesting I don’t know if you know you talk about the same topic like do you remember ever before you know tiger like after tiger was in this Prime like and he always has this
Statement he’s like what are you trying to do this week well I’m just trying to get into contention on the back nine on Sunday right and he says that out loud and now every player says I’m just trying to get into contention on the back like I don’t think guys ever used
To say that they might have thought it but I never used to hear that said and now every single player says that and obviously they look up to Tiger I just find that interesting that like that that’s the goal you know to to get into contention on the back n on Sunday I
Mean it makes a lot of sense and Tiger has to readjust what his statement’s going to be when he’s guy who wins every tournament to guy has traumatic back injury can barely walk yet is still somehow one of the best players in the world at the time that you’re talking
About it but like winnings hard just think about how many major championships tiger actually had a chance to win between him winning the Masters in 19 and then him winning the US Open in 2008 like he was in contention like 10 of those didn’t win any yeah for sure yeah
Unbelievable record and I’m curious to see if he’s going to be teeing it up this week o i mean if he’s not do you I mean we don’t know he said he was sick at Riviera he didn’t look physically bad like he didn’t look like he was like
Playing well obviously he shanked a shot which I never thought would happen in my entire life but if it truly just was the flu I don’t see why he wouldn’t play yeah bad in and out got a lot of guys that week yeah so I mean I think yeah
I’d like to to keep an eye on that you know like I mean obviously it’s it’s nice when he’s playing and and you would think that the players would be a good fit for him he obviously just needs more reps like and and we’re not going to get
A lot of them so it’s just a tricky situation yeah I mean especially where with golf’s at right now like the more tiger that they can have on the TV screens the better it’s going to be for the ratings better it’s going to be for the general interest in a lot of this
Stuff just I mean even the Riviera ratings were through the roof just because tiger was stumbling around the course but I I do think that like trying to it’s funny that he won the Masters in 2019 only because it’s the hilliest golf course you think it would be the worst
For him and we saw him get it got the best of him last year like he just physically couldn’t do austa but the player seems like perfect yeah nice flat walk on the beach yeah for sure and if he ever has a chance to win a major championship again I I would say
98% it has to come at the Open Championship yeah yeah which where Tom Boston still we still she should have won that tournament yeah I mean I kind of feel bad for Stuart sink though because everyone was rooting against him like he got his major like Stuart sink
He’s been playing for 35 years he finally bring like it’s such a great journeyman story wins a major championship and everyone’s like [ __ ] this guy yeah yeah his caddy Franks told me some stories about that week and uh and Frank’s out CAD this week in Puerto Rico
Uh good to see him coming off the bench so yeah I mean you never know what’s gonna happen it’s it’s it’s crazy that’s why we love this right yeah any uh player caddy stuff that maybe not like is how’s Cam young doing with with the new caddy like how are these new caddies
Like evolving into it and like do you find that some of them just might not be good pairs like we haven’t seen any results yeah cam young yeah he he’s kind of gone through a few since he had Paul Torri on the bag you know and I don’t
Know cam very well I I do feel like he he gave his original caddy the boot way too early I was I was really disappointed that kid was a nice kid they were doing well in the majors and someone got in his ear and said you need
Somebody that’s seen this done that and that’s sometimes that’s [ __ ] like you need to just kind of grow together I had the opportunity to do that with John Merrick and you know I was thankful for that I’m sure he was getting business cards in
His locker room you know and and I got a chance to stick around with him grow with them we had some nice years out there um so I feel like cam kind of booted his buddy too early and it’s kind of screwed with his Mojo um he’s got
Steve Underwood on the bag now who’s a very experienced cat he had a nice run back in the day with uh Tim Clark how about that name poll like Steve’s players champion Tim Clark there you go so yeah cam young I they have had some better finishes here lately since
Steve got on the bag there’s been a little stability there uh which is nice to see but um yeah you never know what the Right Mix is going to be and and you see a lot of uh you know jockeying there’s not as much you know like this
You know this week at Bay Hill you know there’s like four or five new ones you know so like it’s you usually with your guy but um and and some of it is for me Pat these days like I don’t know as some of the guys like I didn’t you know
There’s newer newer blood coming out there now new caddies and stuff and and I haven’t been out there as much frequently in recent years so some of the the guys I don’t know as well but well you can have them on your show plug the show tell everyone where they can
Find it yeah quiet please uh you know wherever you get podcasts I’m with her at sports here in Omaha Nebraska like I said we had Joe laava on to start this year uh Troy Martin who you’ve had on your show fellow uh Nebraskan uh who was
Out there with Steve aler doing well and then I’m going to give Gary Matthews Walkin Neiman’s caddy on the bag here before the master so that should be a good episode and then uh just on my social media mostly on Twitter uh at rat house I’ve got those player caddy teams
That come out every week I like to put a little one minute video together and post the teams and uh maybe highlight a few of the changes for the week so if anybody wants to factor that into their betting or if they just want to follow
Along for fun let me ask you about like live for do you because I’ve been trying to come up with my own rankings like my own world golf rankings how do you rate the live guys like are they all really really good because they just beat the
Same 10 guys every single week yeah I mean it’s topheavy out there and you don’t you can’t the courses don’t seem as difficult um the 54 holes throws things off I mean I think I think those guys that are still getting to play in the major championships and those and
They’re also not too far removed from their time on the PGA tour so we can kind of like you know give them you know the benefit of the doubt on you know w did they show us stuff when they were out on the PJ tour so I think you can
Come together with like a decent raking but like the further this goes and these guys are plummeting down the world rankings when they win like the more it doesn’t make sense um so you know a guy like waen Neeman like the way he’s playing right now he’s a top 10 player
In the world and he should be one of the favorites at Augusta but he’s ranked number 75 see this is where I have the problem in ranking someone like Neeman so neeman’s a top 10 player in the world but would you have him ranked above
Brooks no I Brooks is a top nine player in the world okay would you have him ranked above DJ yes I mean DJ just want to live did he yeah yeah I mean yeah yeah yeah I mean Maybe not maybe not maybe wen’s top 15p top 20 player in the world but you
Can even spit it like he’s a top five guy too just based on what like the role that he’s been on like it’s kind of like Louie has been Lou won twice on DP in South Africa and he’s been like top five of every live event so far like but he
Didn’t get a invitation to the Masters like it’s so hard to judge how these guys are doing cuz the only time that we don’t see them outside like in the majors then we know and like Brooks kind of proved his medal last year it’s like oh yeah he’s still like the the
Terminator when it comes down to major championships he can still get his game up there so that helps I think what the perception of Liv is is that oh yeah they do have the guys that are so coming out it’s not like they’re going to play exhibition events and they don’t care
About golf anymore no these guys can be killers when they still need to be Killers but outside of the majors you just see them play against the same 504 48 guys every time or they’re playing against a bunch of Asian tour dudes in Oman or in South Africa it’s like yeah I
Would expect Lou to beat these bums sure sure it was nice see Lou playing well again and these guys I respect the guys that are going outside of the live schedule and playing some uh you know and I think that gives them you know a little bit of stuff to take into these
Major championships um we’ll see how it all gets sorted out I mean uh there are some really top worldclass players out on that tour no doubt and I think they probably are feel feeling it when they come into these major championships the guys are getting the opportunities this
Year uh did you have any friends that cadd that went over to live oh yeah there’s a lot of people I know over there that are cading um so yeah I mean you know and and I haven’t talked to them as much recently uh that’s why I’m
Kind of interested to get Gary on the show and I hopefully he’ll come on because I feel like some of them have been kind of like hey we’re just not going to talk about this and you know they’re out there doing their thing I think it very much seems like a family
Um you know I think they’re out there enjoying themselves and and and competing I think they are working at their craft I just think the the guarantees that are part of it um it’s hard to judge you know how those are factoring in kind of their overall state
Of their personal games now then how do you evaluate that guy when he comes over and plays in a major championship a Dustin Johnson more so than a waen Neeman like I kind of know what I’m getting with waen like he’s motivated he’s said it he’s ready to go like DJ
That’s one where you’re a little bit more like is he on the back end yeah and with DJ I mean DJ 10 years ago it felt like the same does he even really care about this and then he would just win anyway so that’s how good DJ is and
Probably still is but with the like with your buddies that are over there and the caddies that are there so did they get cut in on the guaranteed like did they get their cut of the guaranteed money or is it like a different pay structure
Than it would be on the PGA tour week to week um no I think the pay structure is probably the same I think that you know what Liv was doing initially was kind of paying their way which kind of made it even sweeter uh and so but I think
They’ve kind of gotten away from that model a little bit they’re they don’t want to burn through that much cash um but I think you know the guys out there are probably making those you know same 10 perents and their weekly salar is probably pretty nice and and you know
10% of four million’s like 400 Grand like that’s that’s a really nice week’s work like those guys that are out there are are doing really well yeah it seems to be I would be if if it was me and I was a caddy I’d be angling to get on the
Bag of someone on live yeah yeah you know I think you didn’t hear I have yet to hear a guy that said his player from the PJ tour was going and he and he took a stand and said I’m not going with you I haven’t heard of that yet all
Right John thanks for coming on we’ll have to get your insights on some of the courses coming up soon and you know you still have all your friends out there if you want to pass them along my way so we can get some more in-depth knowledge about the course course knowled and what
We should be looking for for some of these events I am more than open for it I know that the viewers will really appreciate that well once again tell everyone where they can sub to your pod and follow you on Twitter yeah at rat
House r a t h u z and then quiet please podcast and yeah I’ll send some guys your way it’s always fun talking with you Pat and I hope that I can get out there a couple times this year maybe you’ll see me on a bag uh on a TV screen
Near you so thanks for having me yeah Steph Jagger wind Championship we’ll all bet it he can win and then we’ll all we’ll all we’ll all Prosper we’ll all retire yeah you’ll be perfect that’s John rat house you can catch him at all the places where he mentions so go
Follow on Twitter right now it’s time for me to dig into fantasy national.com and get into the statistical research stay Tuned okay let’s talk about TPC s grass the quote unquote fifth major which for a time I suppose you guess I guess you could have called at the fifth major because it was probably the strongest field of the year but without the live guys who obviously are not in PGA Tours
Flagship event and Tiger Wood’s not playing then it’s just all the regulars that you would expect there’s 144 players in the field top 65 in ties after 36 holes make the cut Scotty sheffler is the defending champion and it is of note that they made all these
Concessions to try to keep up with live and have these Signature Events where we’re going to get the best of the best together cuz we need to show case to everyone out there what the best players can do so take this week at the Arnold Palmer Invitational for example 69
Players a cut of top 50 in ties that doesn’t sound really like a real tournament that sounds more like a Liv tournament than anything else yet when they actually have their Flagship event it is a completely full field which is exactly what people want to see so
Stupid anyway Saw Grass is fun I’ve really come around on this tournament over the years and when I start doing this walkthrough which you can always go to at Fantasy national.com Mayo to do your own walkthrough or follow along with me find the things that you want that code will
Get you 20% off and hopefully we have a knife bonus coming for you in the next month or so if you are a member at Fantasy National we have a brand new filter as well which I’ll showcase here in a second I just am so bad at this
Tournament I hit Martin kimer to win here at 80 to1 like 10 years ago and I think I’ve lost every other scent I’ve ever put into this tournament after that it’s been like last year the only thing that were profitable for me were like the top 40 and top 30 markets with some
Guys that I was on I just don’t have a grasp on who ends up doing well here and I’ll release my column on Monday uh for free in my newsletter if you subscribe to the newsletter down in the description right now or go to Mayo media substack you can get that sent
Directly to you and I have sort of a breakdown on from a DraftKings perspective at least like how the higher owned players do at this tournament basically I’m coming up with a new approach this year and my Approach is just going to be I kind of know what
Works at this tournament yet I never take my own advice on it and we’ll do that when we go through the walkthr I do want to talk about the course a little bit sass you know it you see it on TV every single year this is the 50th year of the PLAYERS Championship
7189 yards par 72 and here’s the big difference this year they are calling the greens POA their POA trivial overseed and every year before this it’s been Tiff Eagle berm grass overseed with the PO so it would always be in like oh it’s Bermuda it’s Bermuda it’s Bermuda
No it’s actually POA it’s a lot like what we see in Phoenix and what we see at the American Express just dormant at the the Bermuda is just dormant this time of year so it’s POA on top of everything so I mean Scotty wins in Phoenix we’ve seen a lot of Phoenix
Crossover at this course over the years uh so maybe that there is something to do with that a lot of chippens at these courses as well there is water in play on every single hole and that’s really where it kind of gets me down that you
Can’t even look at course history at the Players Championship because there really is none and we take a look at the former Champions how they did in previous years nothing really points us like oh yeah this guy was close for years then he finally broke through at
Saw Grass no it doesn’t really work like that it’s all recent form coming into this tournament the average green size is 5,500 yards there’s 90 sorry there’s 88 no sorry 92 bunkers across that’s up from 88 uh two years ago so they they’ve added a few more like little ones along
The way there was a bit of a redesign in 2016 uh they really changed hole number 12 uh and it’s technically a drivable power for right now although it’s not really it’s not like drivable in the sense that you might make Eagle it has a 4% Eagle rate so I’m not too concerned
About guys making Eagle on number 12 just don’t go into the water left just just lay it up and try to make birdie that’s probably the easiest way to go about things the worst thing you can do a lot of times depending on the pin position on number 12 is Miss to the
Right and then you have that chip up to an elevated green that slopes towards the water so if you don’t have any spin coming out of the rough if you end up in the rough or if you just have a terrible lie in the bunker you can’t generate
Enough spin you might just roll it in so being conservative on that hole is generally been the thing and that’s the thing about this course and I talked about it with John and Bryson was the best example of this the year that who the hell won that year I think it was
Justin Thomas Bryson ended up becoming like third yeah I think that’s what it was in 2021 yeah Bryson basically just did took iron off every te that negates the biggest weapon he had at the time was just bombing it that was the week after he tried to drive the par five at the
Arnold Palmer Invitational uh and was just mashing it 280 or 380 off the tea every single time he’s like look you can make birdies at this course the thing that you can’t do at this course is make a triple I mean you can do that pretty
Easily you can make a quint Tipple poogy here with the amount of water that’s around but just taking a conservative approach keeping it in the Fairway aiming at the right levels on the green cuz John said that once you’re on the right level of the green these are not
Tricky greens to figure out now if you get yourself out of position in the wrong quadrant of the green or on the wrong tier then you got some issues to deal with so if you can just get to your number play as conservative as possible and just hope that the putts go down
That’s how you win this tournament or you can just be like Sheffer last year and hit everything to like three feet and chip in eight times and you don’t even need to putt well then you can win overall the par threes at this course have an average distance of
138 yards um it’s 183 yards sorry there’s one really long one number eight that’s 237 yards that is the third most difficult hole on the course the shortest one is 137 that’s actually the sixth most difficult hole on the course all of the Power fours play over par but
Number eight has a 25% bogey rate that is the third highest on the course Sheffer won last year he had 11 birdies on his card before he birdied a power three he made birdie at number eight on Saturday so just tread your water just don’t make big numbers on the par 3s go
On your way you need to beat up on the power fivs score on the easy power fours and push everywhere else that is the game plan this week the two toughest holes on the course our power fours on the back nine 14 and the closing hole 18
The only two holes with a bogey rate over 25% they also have a double or Worse rate of over 4% too so a one stroke two-stroke lead going into the 72 hole might not hold up it usually does but it might not Hatton hit maybe the best shot
I’ve ever seen on 18 last year it was just incredible to see the way that he ended up attacking that from where he was and just played that huge cut it was awesome he ended up coming in second but everyone just got destroyed by sheffler the per fives uh
554 yards is the average distance four of the five easiest holes on the course I mean that’s what you’re going to find with most of the par fives uh they all play below par and you know the finishing position of the top four SG Strokes gain in par five last season
Finish First third 5ifth and 19th and four of the five easiest tolls in terms of Birdie rate or better are here as well when you take a look at it that the more difficult one is the 602 yard number nine power five that it does have
A birdie rate of 30% that’s nothing to sneeze at a power rate of 55% but a bogey rate of 13% very few Eagles generated the Eagles really come at 2 and 16 a 3.4 Eagle percentage and a 2% Eagle percentage on those 2% on number 11 as well they’re all kind of
Getable by most of the field but this is the these are really the only holes and 18 to if you can do like a very nice draw into wherever you need to go to make sure that you don’t end up in that pine straw or don’t end up in the left
Water play that the year that Justin Thomas won and he played that like low burner that almost went into the water but didn’t go in the water just stayed up enough for him to get it that’s sort of like the ideal shot on that hole was very difficult like the cut sweats are
Going to be fun this week we’re doing a cut Sweat Show on Friday afternoon weather pending and God forbid the weather actually looks like okay in terms of rain this year so hopefully no delays on that front but overall like you just have to avoid the water you
Have to avoid the big numbers I know it sounds super simple and rudimentary when you boil it down to that but that’s just the way that you have to do it there’s a reason that there’s never been a back-to-back winner here this course is full of such variants and it’s a Pete
Die design so it’s very short as well for a power 72 to be under 7200 yards or right around 7200 yards is pretty unheard of on the PGA tour especially for a major venue like this the water is what makes this so highly variable so it’s like this and PJ National are kind
Of the two where anyone can kind of win and where this course is so short yes distance is really going to help you especially in that eagle generation percentage just with easier second shots on the power fivs but where this course is so short and a lot of even the bigger
Hitters end up laying up all Bryson in 2021 when he did that was it kind of brings the entire field into play and listen you see some very high-end winners here you don’t really see a lot of jabronies come out and win the PLAYERS Championship because you can’t
Go 72 Holes without making a mistake or two and when you’re not one of the top players in the world then you tend to just compound those mistakes when the pressure gets ratcheted up but you see a a lot of just random players finish inside the top 10 who I mean this is
Like the Doug gim open Doug gim we’re going to talk about because I’m really going to hammer down on recent form coming into this because when we take a look at some of the past champions that is really what we’re looking at here so let’s go over to Fantasy
National.com right now and take a look at the scorecard I’ve kind of went every through everything already when we think about the most difficult holes there it is 18 148 and five uh three of those are power fours they all measure and even the fifth most difficult Hol is of power
Four number seven they all measure between 450 and 500 yards number 15 is a power four that also plays well over power so it’s all in that bucket of 450 to 500 that long par three is in there as well and the 137 yard Island hole
Just because big numbers can be made it has a you pretty decent birdy percentage almost 177% lot of pows but this double or Worse rate of 8% we click on double or worse uh it is the second highest after 18 so you can get it going bad
That’s where the cut sweats I mean this is really what the PGA should be leaning into here is doing the cut Sweat Show for this tournament in particular because we have all the cams I might be able to Cobble it together it’s just I don’t have the rights to actually show
You what I’m watching at the time so tune in on Friday for that because this is the tournament where you can watch every player on every hole every shot on the ESPN plus product it’s going to be amazing I love it and the cut sweat for
171 18 is going to be terrific I mean it’s never terrific cuz it just always screws you so so badly when you’re sweating it but that’s just how it kind of goes from time to time approach means so much at this course more so than almost any other course because I mean
It works in conjunction with the water a lot of the time it’s a lot like PJ National in that sense where you see approach be like oh my God it’s so high because if you put a ball into the water your stroke G approach is just going to
Absolutely plummet so if we’re talking about the top 10 finishers or hell even the top five finishers where you see an even bigger gap or even the winners when we get to that that an even bigger gap between approach and anything else that basically just means they didn’t put the
Ball in the water is what that tells me knowing what this course is and seeing the numbers so we take a look at some of the past winners and how they’ve done in Strokes gained approach Sheffer was fourth last year 7.6 Strokes gained in Approach cam Smith
Was fifth at 6.7 Thomas was fifth 6.5 Rory 6.5 web Simpson lost in approach he was 92nd in the field everyone else besides web Simpson in 2018 and seeoo Kim in 2017 have been top 10 in approach for that week on their way to Victory
It’s not like C was bad he was plus 4.1 that was good for 16th in the field that year played exceptionally difficult got to score on the power fives like I said tread your water and make sure you tread water on those longer power fours Birdie
The power fivs Eagle the power fives do not give up the easy Strokes there you start going in the water on a power five which is in play on all of them and that’s basically where you lose this tournament so keep that in mind uh I
Mean there’s no real way to predict that but the great approaches from deeper down or even some of the longer drivers that are more accurate like we saw John ROM have a lot of success here Rory has won this tournament but again no back toback winners because it’s hard to do
Year-over year you see the difficult holes there’s the five of them right there 450 to 500 yards the average shot distribution very flat I mean the biggest bucket you’re going to find is in proximity is 200 plus that’s only 22% I think at Bayhill it was 30% Riviera
Was 30% it’s pretty flat along the way like 125 to 150 is almost 20% % so the buckets of 125 to 200 plus are almost 20% flat across the board of what you’re going to see on a lot of these holes hence again why you will see a lot of just weird
Players end up coming in uh then you have this you know the 100 to 125 bucket that’s still 133% 75 to 106% like that’s still higher than a lot of courses because there’s not that many longer approaches so the emphasis on keeping the ball dry I I mean with your irons
Obviously but just off the tea get yourself to wherever and it’s not going to be a super long approach shot uh historic cut line here it’s been 144 players and then you can see they adjusted the top 65 and ties a few years back but it hasn’t been under power
Since 2016 it’s been plus three each of the past two years that’s once again where I think that number is going to come in plus two plus three plus four is a good guideline for an early cut sweat if you’re looking at it and trying to
Think in your mind like hey where is this going to be driving accuracy a little bit higher than we’re used to at most courses just by a fra green regulation percentage way down uh normally 66% only 62% here scrambling very difficult here because scrambling usually means you’ve hit it into the
Water uh and you’re probably not going to make Power again the three putts per round slightly higher if you leave yourself with longer putts on not huge greens they’re not small greens 5500 but the driving distance is also way down at this course as well 278 to the average driving distance of
284 so again guys taking driver out of the bag on some holes to increase their accuracy going forward so let’s check out what’s going on the players field I don’t know what’s going on in terms of the betting lines and the DraftKings pricing it’s not out as I’m doing this
On a Saturday evening I was waiting for it to come out so we’d have some like real numbers to talk about I don’t know what they’re waiting for I’ve never seen this happen before where this has been a product of this usually had on like Thursday I
Can remember doing these shows like I I usually had people lined up to do DraftKings pick shows on Friday for like a first look nothing nothing this time around so I don’t know if there’s something going on or they just they don’t want to get got in terms of what’s
Going on in terms of pricing to create some soft pricing kind of like we had with minwoo which didn’t end up turning out all that great I suppose but it was an egregious error it just minwoo didn’t keep up his end of the bargain at API
When he came in at 6600 there is a new tab on fantasy national.com which I did talk about I really wanted this in here uh based on the underdog drafts that I’ve been doing the pat Mayo experience listeners League now on Underdog Co code Mayo Underdog to get yourself that
$100 bonus uh for a first time depositor if you really want to help out this show so we can do more stuff on location stuff all that and you don’t have an underdog account please go sign up that is what is fueling the show that’s why
You’re hearing me talk about it so much and I’ve been doing the drafts with the viewers for the best ball league that’s going on and we have a tab on fantasy National at the bottom the major season ADP so we’ve added in a Majors tab so you can just look at Masters PGA
Championship US Open Open champ ship cuz I mean the Masters is one thing that’s easy to go find not necessarily stats for because The Strokes gain stats are like proprietary to the Masters but just Strokes game total stats to he was just collectively played well there over time
It’s really easy just to go up and you know take a look at Augusta National and click on it with the other ones where it’s a rotation of courses every single year you then have to go like look at what the courses are go find them in the
Thing now you don’t have to do that there’s just a catch all for it so you can click on all four of them uh that’s what I’ve been doing for my best ball drafts actually published my first article on Twitter if you go to my account uh it’ll show you all the
Players that are in all of the majors you can also find that I had it in a handy list form but if you want to search players individually you can do that in the season long planner at Fantasy National in the top tab here if you’re trying to game out who is in
Which field uh you can do that by searching by players up on the end Rory mroy he’s in L he’s playing the Valero Texas open who would have thought he would be playing the Valero Texas open he’s already committed he’s committed the Scottish already as well which I I
Mean I he’s the defending Champion so he’s probably going to go but I just thought that was kind of strange so past 24 rounds overall we think about the modeling and how to really put this out I’ll show you what my players model is uh and I think I’m going to deviate from
It a little bit so we go to manage models I have my models for all of the courses is it under players the players all caps because they’re constantly shouting that at you all right let’s activate that model and we’ll click out if it’s not there which it is not just refresh the
Page and then it will pop back up I like actually setting my pinned one here to Strokes game just so I can get a good glance at what’s going on but Players Championship boom I can show you what’s in the model right here you know approach opportunities gained uh which
Is birdie and Eagle chances from inside of 20 feet a Fairways gain proximity from over 200 yards putting uh 5 to 10 feet 10 to 15 feet uh par fours 350 to 400 the short ones you want to capitalize on those more of an emphasis
On 450 to 500 10% of those birdies are better gained and just overall Strokes gained T to Green I have a feeling that the mixed condition model uh is going to be more important for what I’m looking for this week so I’m just going to leave
It as is for this time around and see who actually rates out really well in the players field let’s see here Strokes gained approach what do we got uh first in the field of Scotty Sheffer big surprise on that front hogi is second hogi kind of lit it up here last year I
Think that people kind of forget about that Fina was actually third which shocks me looking at this the first time through Xander morawa sez so the big thing that I’m going to hammer down on when I’m making my picks here uh and I guess we can kind of get to it right now
As I do it in conjunction with the model uh and again all this will be spelled out for you in the article when I put it out along with those DraftKings numbers that I talked about is what was the recent form of the winners coming into this and unsurprisingly more so than
Almost any tournament tournament I can remember in recent history all of the winners just they were very obvious coming in um and like we take a look at the course history everyone has red everywhere um no one is basically let’s the guys who have gained the most Strokes total at this course Fleetwood
He had two top 10 in 2019 2018 he hasn’t been inside the top 20 and got cut Keegan fifth to cut uh day and Rose finished inside the top 20 last year cut the year before a lot a lot of red cuts for everyone so there’s no real like oh
Yeah well he consistently plays well Paul Casey used to be the epitome of this now here’s a guy I really like I’m going to bet on Russell Henley to win the PLAYERS Championship but more on that a little bit later I it’s funny he has the three cuts and the two top 20s
But I just like his form coming in you see Doug gim Doug gim has a top six here he has a top 30 here and he was cut last year so just because someone has like two good appearances here like someone like Victor havin like he was in his
Three appearances at the Players Championship he’s been cut in two top 10s does that mean he’s going to win this year I would say that based on the form a lot of these previous Champions have had is no he wouldn’t because his form isn’t good enough coming in the
Last player with bad form to win at Saw Grass and win the PLAYERS Championship was SEIU in 2017 he W deed in Mis Cuts cluttering his early season results although he did have a t22 in his leadup to the event like that was the only thing that he had Flash and that’s back
When everything was in May so this switch from May to march in 2019 19 when Rory won so since it’s switched to March it’s been like name brand winners Rory JT cam Smith Sheffer so just keep that in mind too it doesn’t mean the other
Guys can’t win this is the year of the other guys actually winning in terms of the PGA Tour but that’s interesting to note that the bigger names fewer randos have just popped up although you know the years before that web won at 80 to1 sew wins at 300 to1 Jason day was I
Think the favorite in 2016 going in so Sheffer wins last year what did chef do going into this event a year ago and this is important to note I think it’s important to note and this is the way that I’m going to base a lot of my picks
This week is the form sort of rankings coming in so you see this is actually the last time that he won a tournament so coming into the players he was fourth the week before at the API 12th 1st 11th 7th that and even going back before that
He was even better but he had a win in a top 12 finish in every previous start before the PLAYERS Championship but what were his players championships results the year before if we look at course history 55th and miscut in his career so he had no good course history coming in
It didn’t matter so we go to 2022 uh most of these guys have left for live weirdly enough cam Smith won that year that was the weird three day or two two and or a day and a half delay I think it finished on a Tuesday uh that’s how it
Ended up working out but Smith was top 15 in four of the six previous events coming into that so we can look up cam Smith and do the due diligence on him actually we can what we can do to make things easier here is just go to 2022
Because that will have everyone’s data in it there’s cam Smith yeah anner ban leiri that’s when Paul Casey got stuck in the divot kizner Keegan not necessarily the names he C Smith gained 11.5 Strokes putting and he was fourth in the field in approach he lost five
Strokes on approach that’s how good his scrambling was but that was a very difficult tournament so you can see what did he do he had won the century earlier in that year he was bad at the Genesis he was bad at the Sony at the RSM before
That he had been in fourth place so you can see he had a win on the card previous in the year that sounds pretty good to me we’re talking about someone’s for coming in uh even if it is just a oneoff but even roll back to his
Previous starts before that like I had mentioned you know he had the fourth the RSM he was 15th in Houston he was ninth 14th like good coming in he had one bad blip at the Sony which he probably didn’t want to play in after winning the entry he was only there I believe
Because he was the defending champion of that event so that was his lead in for in 2021 when Justin Thomas ended up emerging Victorious you can see Justin Thomas and Brian Harman Bryson was in second Cory Connor Shane Lowry I mean it’s hard not to like Lowry again
Especially what he’s doing at API right now just if we talk about recent form how he’s doing it but Justin Thomas was top 15 in eight of his prior nine events coming into the PLAYERS Championship his previous two years before winning 35th and 11th great Rory wins in 2019 What
Were what was his lead in for him he was top six in five straight events coming into it his previous players results the two years previous miscut in 35th nothing for him and Webb when he ran away with it with Xander in second Webb was top 21 and four straight coming in
He already had three top five finishes on the year so far entering the PLAYERS Championship he had been 16th and 66th coming in uh at the Players Championships over the years so that’s why I’m I’m just really hammering down on this point that I think it’s really
Less about what we’re doing in terms of you know the predictive modeling that is most definitely going to play a factor for me you can see in the model rank that I have right now over the past 24 rounds the best players in it Scotty Xander Thomas ludvig morawa L’s played
Some of these shorter courses really well I was on him this week at API actually had a very nice Saturday in uh with the easier pin placements but I thought it was kind of funny I mean he has great form coming in and he watch
Him sneak out like another top 20 at API and then when you look at his stuff it’s like oh yeah he had four straight top 20s coming in obviously he did really well but look at some of these places where he’s played well Sanderson firm shorter is course you know he ends up
Coming second there you have the RSM the RSM the split courses down in Seaside those are short or those are shorter Coastal Bermuda courses in a similar part of the country that’s where he picks up his first win obviously Sony he comes 30th there that’s a short course
At Wy short course at Pebble Beach he ends up coming in second short course at John Deere he ends up coming in Forth the biggest correlation course to this one is the Windom Championship he comes inside the top 15 here it wouldn’t be out of the realm of possibility that
Ludvig actually just wins in his first start here uh based on the form that he’s showing coming in you can see his approach is not great at at 20 I mean it’s great because it’s 21st in this field of 144 it’s not like elite elite everything else he’s kind of doing is
Elite elite in this sense so these are Ian look at Doug gim Doug gim ranks seventh overall his form at the moment is fantastic gim has been fire 16th 8th 12th 13th in his past four starts like that actually does check all the boxes of what I’m looking for here
Great iron player he’s fourth T to Green over that time dude sucks at putting but you know sometimes that just happens we’re going to switch back over to the players model here I was just looking at my Strokes gain model and I have two many in here so let’s edit this model
And let’s take something out let’s take out these short power fours um it’s because I don’t have anything waited let’s wait this all right so let’s go approach and opportunities gained they should be waited around the same I’ll wait opportunities around Fairways that’s about the same in terms of 200
We’ll to see how the weightings all put themselves I put 5 to 10 feet and 10 to 15 feet at the same the shorter power three and you know I want the longer power fours to be you know double is what the uh shorter power fours are like
Bres are better gained since I have opportunities weighted pretty highly and putting weighted pretty highly I’m just going to nudge that up but I’ll make t green pretty important here uh weigh out of like 15 or so% then we can update the model and see what we got going on yeah
So Scotty morawa end up one to Scotty morawa havland Xander feno hogi so hogi is an interesting example he’s another one who just kind of he almost set the course record here a year ago finishing inside the top five he just went nuclear it’s either on Saturday or Sunday I
Can’t remember the day right now but his form is great so he six so he’s 6th 17th 8th 28 coming in uh he’s gained over seven strokes on Approach at API through three rounds he’s I think top 20 coming in right now he’s just I he might be
Dead last in the field and putting he had been putting pretty well coming into this you do see that around the green is more or less negated here the year that web won he actually putted a lot from off of the green so if you can keep his
Driving in approach numbers I you I don’t say you got to bet Tom hogi cuz the number might just be ass I don’t know what the numbers are but if he is 75 to1 or above like hopefully you would get Triple digits on him in a field like
This he was Triple digits this week at API this is a slightly stronger field a bigger field so I suppose his number will be influenced a little bit on what he does in the final round if he does really well or really poorly but he is
He’s going to be a bet for me I would probably guess he comes in at 90 8090 and it depends on which book that you go to to bet any of this stuff but third I mean he actually has never missed a cut of the players which is kind of funny
The last two years the putting has been atrocious but this has been kind of a safe haven for guys who suck on the greens and it just takes one week the ball striking can just stay the same for Tom hogi he might actually have a chance
Here Aaron Ry Lowry Burns Klay Burns is another one I think is a really good play coming in I don’t think that’s like breaking news and I was very discouraged by his number coming into this week at API I I really didn’t like it h it was
20 to one it open I think it dropped down to like 28 by the time it close cuz no one really wanted to bet on Sam Burns at 20 to1 in that field but if he opens at like 33 or 40 and a lot of it will
Probably depend on his Sunday I think he’s five under going into the final round if he like shoots two over or something and he finishes t19 he’s not going to get like a big boost up or anything like that but just look at his form his form is amazing 6th 10th third
10th coming in here and we’re back in Florida where he does most of his damage how has he done at the Players not great but again that doesn’t matter what he has done well is putt really well on these greens he he really has the Florida greens figured out I mean he’s
Won the Valspar a bunch of times and the Valspar has been reclassified too like the PLAYERS Championship in terms of greens uh as very much the same they’re now considered POA not Bermuda for this time of year at the valpar championship that’s been a change that’s been made by
The gcaa the grounds Keepers listen I’m no agronomist here I don’t really know what any of the [ __ ] means but it it was very clear in the comment that they had made that these greens and the valpar greens next week are going to be basically the same and we know how well
That he is putted on those greens over time so then just like the rest of the jabronies that always kind of pop up here can’t lay Rory watch Rory end up winning API after coming back uh pavon senson there’s there’s gim he’s 15th in this model EVR obviously he has great
Form coming in Connors I really like his form coming in um depending on his number again if I can catch him at another 80 like I bet him this week I’d probably bet him again here ecro baa baa keeps killing me Bez Bez has the one bad
Start but it feels like he’s been playing some really good golf right so let’s see what he’s been doing H it’s it’s good not great so he had the second of the American Express he has two miscuts in there and then a bunch of top 30s the approach has just been off the
Charts good if he was hitting more Fairways which used to kind of be what saved him off the green off the te because he has no distance to speak of which is fine at this course don’t really care about that but it would be nicer to see if he had been doing that
At the moment benan and Adam Scott Adam Scott’s obviously won this Stricker’s in this field I mean Stricker can probably still ball at this point he’s playing great on the champ I tour uh but benan is someone who I want to say historically has played well here but I
Feel like his 2020 his first round he was up there and then that got yeah he doesn’t actually have any good finishes at this course but uh I had bet on him as first round leader uh at the 2020 and he was in second I believe uh before and
He was obviously leading but that was the point in time where they called it and Co started so they did not finish even the first round of that tournament Jagger was someone so let’s dig into a little bit now if we can get Jagger at like 200 to one something like that he
Is someone with listen for for Steven Jagger I think is pretty good so far on the year because I talked about like even cam Smith you saw like four of his past six four of his six events prior to his win at the players were inside the
Top 15 he had a win on the card so it wasn’t every event he was great but he had these nice high finishes and that’s what we’re seeing from yab bombs here and he was I don’t know where he finished at Arnold Palmer he was five under going into Saturday no idea what
He did on Sat it wasn’t good enough to see him on the leader board put it that way but he might still be inside like the top 20 here but he has a third in Mexico third at the farmers he was top 20 at the Sony he might end up with a
Top 20 at API I think that would fit the criteria really of what we’re looking for here especially from a longer shot in this field and as John had mentioned I we look at the Windom stuff here in a second that he he had the second lowest
Round to Tom Kim the day that Tom Kim went nuclear we can actually kind of take a look at stepen Jagger to see how he’s done at the Windom yeah two top 15s the past years getting it on approach making the putts on the green driving
The ball well so that’s probably what we can go and look at right now so I’m going to put the model uh what I’ll do is I’ll take this modeling and I do want to stretch it out a little bit so as we’re building the mixed condition model
Which is the model that I’m really going to trust this week we’re going to go to The Rolling model uh which is going to take a bunch of different things I’ll show you here in a second and put in my players model that I had built and this
Way I can still give it weight but not not all the weight that we need so when I click on the rolling model everything is weighted 177% what we need to do is wait this wait the shorter term higher um because that’s what the information
Has told us uh so we’ll kind of go in descending order here I do think last I mean past 24 still pretty recent so we’ll go with 12 as the highest 8 and 24 the same and four the same four probably shouldn’t have that much of an impact
Here but we’ll put wait it about the same as last 50 as you can see on the screen and then last 100 the worst so we’ll update the model for that we’ll take a look at who actually comes out in the top here let’s see here uh model
Rank in this is Scotty Xander Fino nap Ry really Aaron Ry has he really been playing that well maybe he doesn’t have the rounds I don’t know uh oer oer hogi Lowry so hogi Lowry so we’re just we’re coming up with some names here hogi Connors Jagger Lowry
Burns see these these are not picks that I normally would be making so maybe this can lead me to the right way gim is another name that’s up here I’m not going to bet all these guys of course but these are the names that are kind of
Popping up ecro I I could see it with ecro maybe not winning but playing really well like we’re not only just trying to find the winner here we’re trying to find guys that pop up near the top Conor can’t lay havin there’s Burns there’s cam young Novak Nation you want
To talk about recent form my guy here Novak and Carson young this feels like it should be a good Carson young course just based on his skills Novak Nation Paul shaes leader of Novak Nation three top 10 coming into this event and he had a top 10 of Mexico and lost three
Strokes putting I don’t know if he’s ever played in The Players Championship he did he played last year was absolutely God awful um I have no idea what this is all about and how he’s doing this but good form coming in no one’s going to use Novak so you can
Maybe take your shot on that and hope to get lucky yeah it’s not really there for Carson young he has the two top 20s coming in he had a top 10 at the worldwide from the back end of the field like a top 40 play again on Carson young
At really long odds might be the way way to go about it this time around uh Glover I mean he just won at Windam so that would be the the case for him Windam Clark you know I like Windam Clark better on longer courses although he just did technically quote unquote
Win Pebble Beach and he might win the I hope he wins API I have a bet on him to win API that’ be really nice I can use the monies uh that would be great too let’s see we’ll look at Chris Kirk and I do want to look at Russell Henley for a
Second so Henley only ranks 68th so we’ll see how he’s been doing he’s someone that I’ve been targeting a lot in the majors best ball drafts uh US Open PGA Championship even the Masters he actually has some decent run in his career that that’s also the thing to
Look at like when I say when I list off the names of a lot of these guys Sheffer cam Smith JT Rory web sewu day Ricky these are all guys that play well with the Masters now maybe it’s just because they’re good players that could be the
Reason behind it but I just thought that was interesting that I don’t know if there’s any sort of correlation I don’t think that there is between these things but that was just interesting to me so Chris Kirk got it back together a little bit at the classic uh the cognizant classic
It’s just called the classic in the system right now very good ball striking numbers this would kind of fit into what Chris Kirk does well he has a win on the season that is his only has he went win top 20 and has two other top 30 so not
The greatest for him but not terrible at the same time either and to take a look at where he is currently at he’s T25 after three rounds at the H Arnold Palma Invitational where is Jagger did he just you like 80 or something like that was
He just fell off the face of the Earth let’s see here now now that I’m in the system we can find out what Jagger is up to yab bombs he’s T25 which I mean would be a good finish for him at an elevated event uh but being plus4 on Saturday is
Not helping matters whatsoever Russell Henley’s inside the top five so we’ll see how he has been doing this year he had the fourth at the Sony Cory course this it’s all part of like the Pete die rotation and even before that second at the Windom obviously he’s won Sony
Before he’s won PGA National before of course with a lot of variants he went in the water a bunch gained it all putting but it was nice to see his putter actually turn around for once he has a top 25 a top five so far this year and
Going back to last year he doesn’t quite fit all the criteria that I’m looking for but if you put a second place finish or a fifth place finish API then all of a sudden starting to look a little bit better then you can say he has three top
25s and two top fives so far this season and then it kind of the narratively makes that case for what I’m looking for this week so that that’s sort of the recent form guide that I wanted to go in so I’ll take this model and I’ll add it
To the mixed condition model we’ll call that the PLAYERS Championship rolling model so I need to get rid of all the Bay Hill stuff that I have in my mix condition model derp derp it’s gone so right now we just have the players model we’ll check that in right there we’ll update
Everything that’s the only thing that we have going in so now we’re going to go back to regular Strokes game and now here’s where I really want to start piling on the four guide of what we’re looking for so we’re just going to take recent form and what do we call recent
Form well I think 24 is probably the right number but we’ll throw in both we’ll throw in 12 and we’ll throw in 24 and we’ll just take Strokes game total and that is a great way to quantify the results even at the tournaments that don’t necessarily have strokes gain and
We look on average who are the best players over the past 12 rounds well it’s Sheffer naap paval Novak zaurus gim oberg Burns MC NE is mcne is very interesting here he loves playing at places with small greens I didn’t realize he been playing so well uh terrible at the classic made the
Cut though the off the tea game has been really good can you get this from him is what you really need we know we can light it up with the putter 13th in Mexico sixth okay you have you have my attention he gained seven point he gained over seven strokes putting in
This tournament last year and came in 60th I I do feel like his approach is just too bad you would have to get really lucky on the approach weak for him but every other part of his game does make a lot of sense here I mean
He’s coming back from a bad year clearly he’s showing something right now so a back and like DraftKings type guy top 40 type guy if the numbers right but I was surprised to see him rid out this well in the very short-term modeling hogi Mitchell EVR Thomas Chan Kim So Puerto
Rico and API will obviously be added to these totals by the time Monday comes around to give you even more recent form so I wouldn’t just go with this I’m going to load this into the modeling right now at it to my mixed condition model Strokes gain total boom add it in
There and then I’ll give it a bit of weight like that or something and I’m going to want to put my model there so we’ll rate that a little bit higher than the uh the overall model that I had built just for stats this is a form
Guide this is the very shortterm guide that we’re looking for uh now what we can do is increase the sample size to the past 24 rounds and if you ever encounter anything like that you can just change up on the screen so past 24 rounds if we take an average see if
There’s any sort of difference so Thomas is actually the best player over the past 24 Xander ludvig pavon Sheffer Burns so over the 12 Burns is a bit lower over the 24 he moves up a little bit that’s why I just wanted to grab double the sample size on that we still
Keeping it a little bit in the short term so we’ll call that Strokes gain total boom we’ll Chuck that one in we’ll wait that about the same as the past 12 we’ll go back and rejig all the percentages here in a second so with just three numbers going into it right
Now um we’ll try to click on different courses there’s two more filters that I want to throw in one is going to be the aformentioned Windom Championship so the reason I keep bringing up the wind Championship as you heard when I spoke with rat house was just the amount of um
Crossover winners that we’ve seen at this event and the the play between those two places uh so we’re just going to go to Sedgefield and look it up sge field CC boom apply course filters and see what we got going on here now some guys just don’t play this event like how
Many rounds does Scotty Sheffer have at he has zero he has zero rounds so that’s you he’ll end up with average waiting on this which will hurt him a little bit so maybe I won’t wait this one really high but I do want to take a look at the
Average past 24 rounds who are the best players in this field at the wind Tom Kim web Simpson Victor sunjay Sam Burns that’s good to know Billy horel Cam Davis also good to know I believe he was top 10 here last year Henley ludvig Eric Cole hoard Taylor Moore benan dietre
SEIU Kim okay now we’re getting some names man Schmidt might win in Puerto Rico this week so he’s another name that popped up uh Justin Rose Alex SMY morawa will zot torus so I don’t want this to hurt the guys that don’t play in those tournaments which it’s going to
Inevitably just thinking about it so we can’t rate it too too highly but what we can do is even like take a look at past 12 rounds so let’s take a look at the more recent years we’ve had uh at this and you can even throw some of the other
Die courses into this as well like I for the Sony Open I usually do like Sony Colonial Sedgefield and Heritage like those four kind of go all in the same bucket together you could do that for this as well but I’ll just use the Pete die
Filter here in a minute if I just take out you know 24 rounds and go to 12 rounds uh Tom Kim Victor Henley web benan horel SEIU Burns Cam Davis ludvig Eric Cole Hyer so a lot of the same names so we’ll throw this one in all that Strokes gain total at
Sedgefield you can see at Sedgefield so we’re going to wait this lower on the lower end of things so right now as we look at it the percentages don’t matter but you can see that that is lower than uh what we have for some of the other uh
Winnings that we have in the mixed condition model so we have these things in now so who R Scott you know what even with that Scotty still ranks out number one um in the mixed condition model the mixed condition model is uh only the mixed conditions of what we put in it
Has nothing to do with any of the filters that are on it will always give you the same sort of number so with everything in so far our 10 best players are Scotty ludvig Xander pavon Burns nap he’s probably not gonna be helped out by his performance of Bill not going to lie
To you on that hogy Thomas JT gim Adam Scott then you got EVR who’s like some Jabron who’s up here hadwin does pretty well so does e root horel is horel playing well and I’m like not realizing it right now he was good at AP at Honda
Like the back end but 18th at Sony fourth at the Windom I guess if you go back and sort of take some of these other stats and he starts to look a little bit better I don’t know if I necessarily trust Billy Ho at the moment
Close some of these tabs I have like 500 tabs open at the top of my screen should probably close those as I go along Novak Novak Nation 22nd in this ahead of benan just behind Shane Lowry again wait for the update on Monday once we get all of
The new information coming in so that’s the Windom so let’s take Windom off for a second we can clear all our filters right right here and now we’re just going to look at Pete D courses because this will include the players this this will give more waiting to the good
Players who don’t play those loser events uh and go forward you could probably add the Heritage the Heritage might actually be a really good place to look at for this a lot of similar skill sets Pete D design we’ve seen a lot of crossover success between those two
Courses as well and that’s been an elevated event over the past two years as well and three of the past four years cuz it was coming out of Co too so three of the past four years all of the best players have played at harbort toown
That might actually be a good one to look at too to see who has played really well there in comparison to everywhere else uh but here’s the Pete die tab down in the bottom left boom Pete die we’re going to look at the past 24 rounds on
Pete die courses uh just to give us enough of a sample uh but we don’t want to go back too far so what I’m going to do with this is take 2024 202 no that jumped on me 2023 and 2022 and apply my filters so just the
Past 2ish years or so cuz I don’t want to have guys with stats from like 2016 that doesn’t mean that doesn’t mean anything to me I don’t want that at all so best average per round in this I mean we can just take a look at the model
Rank uh this is for my Strokes gain model by the way Scotty comes out number one on Pete die courses uh and these are the Pete die courses that it’s drawing from uh Stadium Course at uh PJ West Harbortown River Highlands Saw Grass those are the four that were getting for
This uh you could add other courses into it obviously if you wanted you could add but we already have our own wind one uh to look at so average on Pete die courses per uh Jake nap in one round not great Tom Whitney is great in his one round at
A Pete die course Matty Schmidt in three rounds so who are some guys with some real samples here Xander I mean hii fits everything that we just talked about I wonder what his odds are going to be I hope he kind of flails then he can get
His revenge he can finally come through for a for cuss at the Players Championship although cuss has already declared him the winner of the pandemic year because he was in the lead when it was called but if he has another good finish this week with a quote unquote
Back injury he’ll have a 13th win in probably another top 10 or top five coming into the week like it’s good form coming in as you can see total per round with eight rounds on Pete die courses probably all from the PLAYERS Championship tell you the truth we can
See what the rounds there if you click on the rounds and it is Travelers and the players you must have time with an injury that’s exactly what it was at the Players the year before uh anyway that’s where he’s been at oh yeah actually yeah elevated events for The Travelers as
Well would actually probably shed some more light on that one’s not really the same as this one uh in terms of how it ends up playing out but again another Pete die design with all of the top end players being a signature event but nice to see Hideki up there there’s Scotty
Eot in seven rounds actually played these courses really well Carson young 1.9 Strokes per round over 11 rounds pretty good Kevin Yu minwu Klay now we’re getting some names forchan Kim that’s only three rounds beel in only two rounds uh I can’t believe Bronson beron is in this field that blows my
Mind Keith Mitchell very good at die courses hadwin really good at die courses I mean Nick Dunlap did win at PGA West Henley really good at die courses spe and Thomas ludvig only has the four rounds but still very good Connors and Rory there’s Ryan Fox Harmon
Very good at them Sam Burns very good being somewhat relative here like we’re down to like the 30 range of players ranked in the field but these are all still players who are gaining right around I mean Sam Burns is gaining 1.3 Strokes on the field per round at Pete
Die courses that’s not nothing Michael Kim JT Poston Poston is someone based on his profile should be o if there’s ever a big tournament for JT poon to win he would win the PLAYERS Championship um and does he like I mean he has good form if we went back again retroactively and
Looked at his form if he won this event you’d be like oh yeah that makes a lot of sense he had a top 10 at Genesis top 20 at pibble he’s 11th the American Express back to back top 10 to start the year but let’s look at his players so he
Has two t22 is and a miscut so he shows that he can putt at the course the approach has been ass but if we go to the Heritage you see he has a third and eighth and a sixth he’s won the Windom Championship along with another top 20
And a top 10 last year so it’s been these are the types of courses that he’s plays well RSM Sony Open he has let’s see he had a top 10 this year he was sixth place at the Sony Open t21 the year before that how has he done at
Honda over the years not great this one that one has not been good to him but there’s enough of them around where you can see that these are the sort of courses that he ends up playing really well uh I’m not picking him to win again
But I am putting him on that short list of guys to consider even if he had a bad start because the form overall is still looking pretty good so uh I’m going to throw in the Pete die pass 24 rounds and 2024 23 and 22 into here as well and
We’ll just take a look at that and go with yeah some sort of waiting higher than the Sedgefield one because it gives us more guys to actually go from so now we’re at 20% with that so we have our overall stat model that we put in past
12 and 24 rounds just overall Sedgefield last 12 rounds all Pete die courses past 24 rounds of people in the field Sheffer remains at number one with Xander Burns now in third pavon and EVR have breached inside the top 10 as has Keith Mitchell Doug gim and Tom hogi and hadwin are now
10 and 11 so hadwin he was a guy I bet on here last year actually won money on hadwin that was a few bucks he actually returned from the stupid tournament and hadwin was one of those guys uh who raided out well is pendrith in this
Field he did qualify for this field so he is someone that I want to look at now uh we’ll take a look at his overall player card and I’m going to see if this is more perception or if this is reality because sometimes we get these narratives in our head about players and
What they do well and I feel like the overall narrative with Taylor pendrith because he’s you know one of the bigger drivers on the PGA tour that’s what you think of is like he’s going to do really well at Tory Pines he’s going to do really well at Memorial he’s going to do
Well at all these courses which require such distance off the tea but in my mind when I think back cuz I have the same like initial thought about it but my per of him is he actually plays a lot better at the shorter courses so let’s see if
That’s actually true farmers long course top 10 good Sony short course top 10 uh Bermuda short course top 10 Shriners I actually have no idea Shriners in the middle somewhere uh sort of an average course he was third there so he actually has a bunch of top he either misses the
Cut or comes inside the top 10 those are the two things that he’s doing at the moment uh barbasol longer course played really well there he had his injury so let’s go back so we had a short course top 10 at Pebble Beach uh rsm’s a bit
Shorter T15 there BMW long played well there rocket mortgage kind of in between was second players top 15 short course Honda shorter course T25 Farmers long maybe he’s plays Tory Pines really well Bermuda again shorter course maybe he just has courses but he can so it’s not
So much that he plays well at shorter courses versus longer courses does have that t-13 at the Windom as well gained a ton T to Green lost it all on the greens that was in his leadup to the President’s Cup that he was I’m going to
Be at the President’s Cup by the way this year we just booked our lodging getting tickets me Tambo Kenny cus fineberg Paul got the whole crew going gonna try to invite some more people as well and I’m breaking this right now we’ll announce this on Monday with
Fineberg but me and Jeffer going to be in Vegas for Master’s weekend we’re going to be doing the show live from there we’re going to be doing a watch along at the stadium swim at the Circa hotel if you’re in town and you’re in Vegas want to come hang with Jeff and I
And watch the third round of the Masters on that Saturday Saturday you are more than welcome I think we have a private Cabana where we can all like hang see the pool is there the giant screens are there it’s going to be an awesome time
Then I think the Paul and Cody are going to do a watch along for UFC 300 that night there as well if you’re just a big fan of mayo media Network going through let’s go down to the length of the core so under 7200 yards and see who plays
Like this one Teeters it’s 47% of the time less than 72 53% of the time over 7200 but it’ll end up being like 720020 which I’m going to put in the bucket of 7200 it’s right around 7200 so less than 7200 maybe we need to put in like 7,000
To 7200 to get rid of those really short courses but they’re more this course is more in the bucket of those ones because when we take a look at it you can see the if we click on power 7 I’m I wonder outside of the players what is less than
7200 yard and is a par 72 I don’t think that there’s a lot of courses like that bana has 24 rounds at said courses are they all the players uh pebble oh yeah Pebble Beach itself can fit into that CU it’s a par 72 the American Express RSM the fortnet American Express Players
Championship Sanderson firms okay I there is enough of that in there okay good to know uh so we’ll take two stabs at this one so we’ll do the par 72 with the 7200 yards that will be one filter we will add in and again we’ll just do the average of Strokes gain total
Patrick Klay Jimmy St hogi there’s our guy hogi Bez bork Ryu that’s only in four rounds um Sheffer pavon ludvig Burns again so Burns and hogi and Sheffer just are the names over and over and over that appear at the top of all of these list Eric coold does do really
Well too Keith Mitchell is another one that continues to show up in a lot of these and this is over the past 24 rounds we’re going to add this one in uh and again just call it Strokes game told we’re just looking we’re trying to find
Out form that is the big I never do this and that’s why I need to kind of switch up what I’m up to here so we’re going to do that one and now we’re going to take off par 72 and just do courses less than 7200 yards just to see what that gives
Us if it’s the same then there’s no reason to put it in and see what it tries to tell us Sheffer Cole Xander Henley Thomas kley Burns Benny Anne ludvig there’s Rose there’s Windam Clark Bez gets another boost Poston is up there again so we’ll throw this one in
As well just cuz a lot of those guys have played well at this style of course and I think we’re probably pretty good at this point like I said I’m not putting in course history whatsoever so that never has to factor in um and we’ll throw that here so here’s what we have
Cooked up right now uh so the mixed condition Model results are going to be the players rolling model 17% last 12 and 24 18% each for strokes gain total Strokes gain total of the last 12 rounds just at the Windom Championship 6% I’m going to
Boost that up to 8% let’s call it uh Pete Dy pass 24 rounds over the past three years 14% par 72 on courses less than 7200 yards 14% And then last 24 less than 7200 yards overall no par in that at 12% so let’s update the mixed
Condition model and see what our results are going to be Ben tayor worst player in the field with Grayson Murray who has a win this year too good for him Scotty Sheffer shley Sam Burns 123 JT Klay ludvig Keith Mitchell so Keith Mitchell is our first like longer shot type of
Guy here hogi is also inside the top 10 he’s number nine hadwin is number 10 so those are three Beyond 80 to1 guys right there uh and probably 7200 7100 on DraftKings uh and even in the end of your uh if you do Players Championship best ball drafts guys to take maybe at
The later end depending on how many people are are in your draft just names that pop up paval is up there as well gim rates out 14th Bez 15th Victor EVR zalot Taurus Henley’s number 20 I love that just I’m trying to find reasons to get on Henley and now that the mixed
Condition is telling he’s a top 20 play Boom might have to be in on that Denny does really well don’t like that I hate Denny uh JT Poston number 24 norin minwu low Lowry was a guy so this is sort of the range I was talking about earlier with the recent form type
Stuff uh so you have like Lowry Connor Hideki Carson young all in that mix inside the top 40 Grio seah McNeely all in that top 45 range along with Tom Kim I really wish Tom Kim was playing better golf right now as you can see like the
Approach numbers were bad at the classic but going into it like it wasn’t terrible just with theor on the bag like it sounds like it should be a really good thing but I don’t know don’t know how much I love that coming in here but
Yeah yeah that’s going to do it on the pat Mayo experience this week we’re not going to guess the odds cuz the odds are just going to be out on Sunday morning they better be for this and they’re going to be very similar to what we just saw at the Arnold Palmer Invitational
Because it’s basically the same very best players who will be rated at the top and they’re probably just going to copy and paste that going forward Tony feno is back in the field this week that’s really the only change except more Jabron is at the back end again
Just wait on fantasy National to update on Monday once we get all of the Puerto Rico and API stats completely uploaded we’re at the mercy of shotlink with all of the stuff so we have to wait for them to send it and update all of their files
And as you’ve seen with shot tracker overtime not the most reliable people in the world don’t want to take some shots at our partners here but like get it together Pals figure it out fantasy national.com Mayo will get you 20% off and if you’re watching this on let’s say
The 11th I think the 11th or 12th so the Tuesday or Wednesday this week if you get the annual uh the monthly plan sorry at fantasy national.com even if you get it today if you get it on the 10th or 11th yeah if you get it Sunday or Monday
It works too just when you’re going to do your Master’s research if you get the monthly plan right now fantasy national.com Mayo you’ll get all the master stuff and be able to build your lineups and do your research that way as well that will be included in the month
Leading up because it’s the month the day to day so the 10th to 10th 11th to 11th whatever day for the Masters that you want to end doing all of your research and generating your lineups and using the ownership project C is the way to do that I’ll have more in-depth
Details in the newsletter this week on the Mayo media substack subscribe to that for free down in the description smash the like while you’re here that always goes a long way in helping us and if you’re not on Underdog get on Underdog right now okay code Mayo link
Is in the description once you have your username and make your first time deposit at Underdog fantasy go fill out the survey that’s in the description right now I’m giving away5 $1,000 Underdog credits away for The Players Championship the only way that you can do that is to do the survey
Which takes 15 seconds you need the underdog name then go to the survey and boom you’re in the draw I got fineberg on Monday I got the best bets on Tuesday with Ben Coley and the model Maniac that’s going to be an awesome show and then on Wednesday T’s away on his 10th
Anniversary so Ben RZA stepping up and in for the draftking show this week and then Jeff Tim and I will be on the cut Sweat Show on Friday maybe even do a first round recap on Thursday evening a lot of fun stuff going on at the pat Mayo experience so thanks for sticking
With us today I hope you profit API Puerto Rico and then at the Players Championship okay I’m Topo I’ll see you next time experience experience
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SHOW INDEX
00:00 Intro
2:02 Sawgrass Stories
5:01 Comp Courses
9:12 Scouting Sawgrass
13:58 New Caddie/Player Teams
30:15 LIV Caddies
36:13 Course & Stats
51:30 Field + Stat Model + Results
56:47 Recent Form
1:09:08 Mixed Condition Model
1:14:30 Form
1:17:25 Wyndham Championship
1:21:17 Pete Dye
1:28:31 Short Courses
1:32:07 MCM Results
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Nice review!
The Ghim Reaper Next Week!! Lfg! Great stuff
weight loss did david duval no favors back in the day……
The music transition off the interview into fantasy national stats.. perfection