Ron and Byron dig into the small field and determine how they’ll create their player pools and orchestrate their builds this week.
0:00 – Welcome
1:30 – Rabbit Hole factors
4:00 – $10k+ range
8:45 – $9k range
13:45 – $8k range
21:25 – $7k range
31:00 – $6k range
38:35 – Quick Puerto Rico bets
What’s going on bit SPS we are back to a breast this week after the solo show with me last week I’m sure you had more than enough of me just speaking to you for 30 straight minutes but we’ll try and do that with the byon show over here
On BS Bird’s golf talking about the Arnold Palmer Invitational taking place at Bay Hill Club and Lodge this week for our fourth designated event of the year and we’ve got a loaded field we got 69 golfers couldn’t quite get to 70 because the PJ tour is just a little stubborn in
That nature but we got web Simpson in the field run so that’s exciting for us man you talk about stuff to complain about I mean there’s so many issues field sizes lack of drama you know no names littering the leaderboard you know the livid issues persists so I mean will
This will this finally be the week the big boys strap up their boots and give us some Superstar drama on the weekend you know I mean God God bless the naps and the Dunlap and the pavans of the world but man hey nap’s a superstar he’s budding
He’s I really have I’ve I’ve got him again for outright this week so if he wins again this week I’m going to be very happy um Ron talk to us about what you’ve plugged into the what’s important this week what’s what’s cooking over at bill yeah so I mean Bay Hill we have
This classical Florida style Golf Course characterized by you know it length Bermuda grass thick rough uh typically firm and fast greens uh you know we didn’t really see it at PJ National like we were expecting last week you know I’m pretty sure um you know I know the rain
Issue has persisted in Florida so hopefully hopefully we get some firmness there um tons of bunkers water hazards yeah windy conditions have played a factor here um so you know five of the last six winners have finished with a score of of 12 under or lower so it’s
Kind of one of those courses uh where par is an acceptable score on a majority of the holes um except the par fives which you really need to score on the par fives um but yeah this is the um kind of the layout that plays as the
Toughest non- major course on tour and so yeah course knowledge is really key here uh so yeah in the rabbit hole one of the things you can do is just you know select Bay Hill and you can go back you know see you know you know pass
History so this is the third most predictive course on tour um total driving is a really big one for me this week um Rabbit Hole has the option of total driving obviously you can look at U ball flight you know Apex height which is key this week as well um long iron
Accuracy if you want to look at the rough and the Fairway rabbit hole is the only place where you can kind of separate those um obviously the rough is an issue this week there is a much higher rough penalty and so so to be able to look at you know 200 plus is
Kind of the key distance um I think it’s 50% of all approaches are from 175 and higher so that’s just really cool to be able to look at you know how does a guy play you know 200 From the Rough um and yeah scrambling comes into play this
Week as well you know around these greens you know the rough has kind of been built up uh bogey avoidance another key stat that I’m looking at this week as well so a lot of lot of important qualities and metrics we’re looking for yeah and they’re very finite you know I
Think that’s the fun part about this course or not the fun part but a very unique part about this golf course is unless you have like a supreme short game week where someone that’s short and pop gunny kind of scrambles and putts their face off you’re not going to get
Around this golf course at the least amount of Strokes if you don’t have distance and good long eye and play out of the rough you know that’s just basically the prerequisite to success at this venue and if you don’t have it tough cookie for you so we’ll dive into
It Jon and take a look at the board for some reason they refuse to put Scotty and Rory Ultra expensive I guess the smaller field potentially has them feeling like they can you know narrow the the salary tiers this week we’ve had back-to-back weeks of 5K ranges and this
Week we don’t so we’ve got Scotty Sheffer sitting at 113 Rory at 106 and then kley the the rogue agent there in the 10K range at a flat $10,000 the two obvious names at the top here are Rory and Scotty their track record at this venue has been impeccable
Between the two of them in their eight starts their worst finish is a 15th and that was Scotty in 20120 so like they are just inside the top 10 perennially around this venue and I think avoiding both of them this week would be a probably terrible mistake on your part
They most likely one of them is going to be in the mix come Sunday right so which way are you leaning at the top there on right now they’ve got Scotty projected as the most own golfer at 10 at 113 I would find it difficult to believe
Because I’d imagine Rory catches a bit more steam over the next few few hours yet before lock because a $700 price difference to me is just for two guys that are very similar is enough for people to go to that way more than Scotty yeah a little um little change of
Strategy this week for me I’m I’m going pretty heavy on these top two of sheffler Ma I agree with what you said there um I think that both underpriced um Rory especially uh you know both rank one two for me on difficult courses in strong Fields when you kind of combine
Those two together which you can do on the rabbit hole um both of them are top three in Florida since 2016 both Elite par five scores which again you’ll you’ll probably heard this a bunch but because the par Theses and Par fours are so tough here like you have to score in
The par fives and you know if you look 14 of the last 17 winners you’re B Hill have been in the top 40 um in the PJ tour in par five scoring for the season leading up to their Victory so that that number just keeps playing out um both
Guys are Elite total drivers you know Rory with the best course history of any course for him right here at Bay Hill and I actually bet Rory in single digits this week and this is like I think only the second time I’ve ever done that so I think another difference for me with
Rory is how much more comfortable he looks on the greens so yes he did struggle at PJ National putting last week but if you look before that he’s actually gained putting in 12 of his last 13 tournaments um and then of course Scotty’s won here as well and I
Think both are just really motivated to play their best and especially on these longer tougher courses where it’s not a birdie Fest I think it kind of does bring out the best in both of them yeah absolutely especially Scotty you know I think this is you can see Rory on a soft
Of course kind of going super low too because he can get hot with the putter a bit more than Scotty but I think Scotty just T green is just going to tear this place apart again I you know I bet him top 10 at minus 140 so I love what
Scotty sheffler can get up to this week I think I’ll be playing both of them going into it Ron with your contest selection how are you rocking and rolling there are you going 150 Max or you are you doing like single entry three entry Maxes kind of condensing
Your player pool trying to really like optimize your leverage you take on a few opportunities down there yeah I I don’t think there’s a lot of Leverage plays this week and so usually when that’s the case and especially when you have you know field at 70 or less players you know for me
It’s it’s not a 150 week it’s more of a you know some of the 20 20 Max tournaments or just 20 lineups and I think I think there’s enough options out there where you can still kind of cover all of your favorite plays and not have
To you know max out um and so again you know with so much volatility especially with the top of these leaderboards it’s just it makes me hesitant to to just go too much and so I think for me at least this this week is where I’m going to
Focus mostly on you know maybe 20 30 lineups at the most yeah I’m expecting myself to have about 10 so I’m gonna just kind of do that route again this week I locked in all six all 149 of my lineups last week I forgot to wake up in
Time so I had step and Eric Cole in 140 line lineups great stuff for me and I had Billy horel in that lineup as well so that hurt big time anyway don’t do that make sure you get your stuff figured out it’s the East Coast now
Locks are like early in the morning make sure you get that stuff figured out let’s dive into the nines and speak about some guys that aren’t a lock and I think there’s some opportunities to fade some rather chalky opportunity uh chalky individuals in this range with the likes
Of like Sam Burns sitting at 9 $300 I know he’s been playing Great Golf I’ve been on him pretty much every single week in heading into this I don’t know if this course like suits his game that well if I’m being completely honest with you I know he’s had a ninth year but
He’s also missed the cut either side of that it’s a golf course that can eat you up if you’re not in full control of your game he’s a great driver of the golf ball but I don’t know if he’s a very good Scrambler he’s not a very good long iron
Player either so there’s like a lot going against him here I really prefer Jordan spe over Burns if would to pick a chalkier position in that range and that’s my favorite play too is is Jordan Speed I really really like him and havland I’ll be starting a few of my
Lineups with havland and speed this week just because I think you know that gives me a chance to really be bit more balanced and I think with with havlin there I don’t expect him to be in the 20% ownership that he’s kind of being pushed
At right now I think people are going to be scared of his recent form so give me some of your favorite plays here in this 9k range run yeah so for me like Victor hin at 99 you know it’s been a quiet start to the year
For him but I’ll say it again I think I said this when you know when I played him at the Genesis you know I want to be early with him yeah and you know his ball striking was back you know when he played at Riviera gaining 3.7 um
Combined off the T and approach and so yeah you know he’s he’s been um you know last two years second and 10th here and I think and this course just accentuates his total driving his long iron play um the things he’s really good at um you
Know of course you know we keep going back and forth about the the Ron the green stuff um I think he’s better from more difficult rough than he is from tight lies and so you have more of that thicker rough here that’s been built up around the greens when they changed the
Course here back in 2019 so um I I just think kind of almost similar to to Rory and Scotty that you know when it’s not a birdie Fest when there’s not this pressure for him to to keep going low I just think he’s able to separate from
The field a little bit more with his ball striking and I think this course you know allows him to do it because of how it plays um and so yeah because I guess kind of so so with with my strategy of you know if I’m playing a
Lot of sheffler and mooy and hland you know I’m I’m dropping all the way down here um to Justin Thomas at 9k you know I’m I’m not complete fading everybody in there but you know I agree with you know what you said for example you know Sam
Burns even if you look at his um performance on difficult courses like he’s 41st in this field like he you know when the when the events get you know stronger in field strength you know I just think he hasn’t really proven yet that he can come through in those areas
I mean I would love to play Max hom but when you look at his approach play and just his overall ball striking like something’s something’s going on there so I’m gonna wait on him like Homer y his best trait is his Putter and it’s one of his worst right now like from
From a Strokes game perspective he’s he’s losing the most Strokes out of all of his four categories with the putter which you know if that bounces back at some point then he’s going to have a great week potentially but just right now I don’t think on these greens it’s
Going to happen but who the hell knows I think it’s interesting though because he’s he could potentially come in at single figures Ron yeah yeah and um you know JT like we talked about you know around 133% ownership right now I think that’s very you know that’s very palatable and
You know I just think when we’re looking at you know whe ball striking um you know he has looked pretty well here the first couple months of this year um and so um you know typically plays well here in Florida so I just think that’s a really solid price at 9k especially if
That ownership can stay under 15% um I do like JT this week uh but yeah this it’s it’s pretty much skipping down here and um playing a few more of these guys in the AKs yeah is it even possible to play Scotty and Rory in the same lineup I
Haven even oh yeah because like yeah I think you know you’re looking at low 7ks but yeah for sure because you know like you know I think Rory easily could have been over 11 this week just based on his course history alone so I don’t think I
Don’t think that’s baked into it enough but uh yeah I think I think you can do it yeah if you click them both you’ve got Rory and Scotty there at a casual then you’ve got $7,000 left so if you can find someone that’s going to be
Affordable down in the bottom to kind of get you back into the into the adks for the last few few guys maybe that’s the way to go we can kind of find those when we get into the Sixers year shortly I do think if you are going with
Rory and Scotty in the same lineup you’re probably going to have to find at least one Cheapo guy in the bottom of the eights and to me I’m probably looking at a little bit of siah the gala I’m probably looking at a bit of Jason
Day I do like the two guys there in that range they’re very affordable in the bottom of the range there and then two options that I kind of three options four options that I really like in this AK range are will zelot Taurus I know
He’s going to be very popular but I I just think he’s going to suit this golf course really nicely two big boy tracks he’s played at the last two times 18th at the farmers when he really started showing us that he’s coming back he started finding his groove on that on
That weekend I think if that was a five round tournament well zorus might have been in the mix you know like he was starting to move in that direction and then he showed us that he’s back when he finished second at the Genesis so those two courses are two big boy tracks I
Feel like you can kind of comp the guys that have played well on those two going into this week especially the farmers because it’s kind of got that same driving feel right there’s a bit more water involved but if you missed the Fairway you got that rough to deal with
And Willie Z just seems to get it out of that rough so well other options that I really like are Cameron young Matt Fitzpatrick and wam Clark all in that same spot there Clark being the most my most favorite because it just seems like he’s going to be coming in at 9 10%
Ownership which if you can find a 10% 9% guy that can potentially find himself inside the top five this week that’s what you’re looking for it’s a small field it’s going to be hard to find options that are like 5% or less so having one or two guys that are in that
Range that have upside wam Clark is Elite out of the rough he’s Elite he’s not the most accurate driver of the ball but he’s so good out the that it’s okay you know I think he knows where his Ball’s going to miss all the time as
Well I don’t know how much water’s to the right on this golf course anyway so I’m kind of okay going with Clark this week and then Fitz he fits this course baby like I’m not a big fan of Matthew Fitzpatrick ever but he is like Matt Fitzpatrick is rattling off a second a
Ninth a 10th a ninth and a 14th he’s got a similar kind of track record as Scotty and Rory up at the top there just incredible incredible stuff he’s bogey avoidance his short game just he loves his place and I think Fitz is one of those sentimental guys like winning at
Harbor toown and and playing well at coures he plays well at he played okay last week I can’t say he was like amazing but he did have a few holes where he kind of blew up but he dominates par fives and has a good time
There so I like him a lot in the in the top range there yeah I like a lot of the same guys I mean um you know when you look at zot torus you know he ranks as the best player in this field in performance above his Baseline when you look at uh
Difficult scoring conditions and so something about these you know these tough courses just bring out the best in him and so um you know I know we keep going back to this but some of these important metrics for the week you know he’s just a lead a lead in you know when
You look at you know total driving you know long iron play um he also thrives in firm and fast conditions and going back in the rabbit hole even looking on horses with a high rough penalty uh like you said uh you know another thing you
Can use a rabbit hole 4 is looking at Club head speed um even out of the like specifically to courses like beill when you can look and see how players perform you know here you know I guess you know like kind of like what you mentioned you
Know trying to hit the ball the rough you want that higher Club head speed and so yeah he he checks all those boxes for sure um he’s one of those guys where you know if he gets even if he gets above 15% you know he’s he’s a good chalk to
Me um camon young another guy who I know is popular you know I see him right now around 20% um you know he’s second in my core four which kind of looks at those same metrics that we’re talking about here you know long iron play total
Driving par five scoring um yeah I agree with Fitz now Fitz for me is someone like the course history is just spectacular and I guess for me he’s he’s a guy just because of how inconsistent he’s been lately that I’m willing to fade just because of that ownership even
Though there’s probably a good chance he he does finish top 10 top 15 again because he’s plays so well here um but yeah his inconsistency scares me away a little bit so like a pivot for me down here that I really am starting to like
More as the week goes on is is Tom Kim sitting there at 83 and you know in that same core four model he finishes fifth in this entire field he’s top 10 in total driving um I think for me his Spike putting ability you know he he
Tends to have these up and down weeks um but if you can catch him on a week where he gets really hot on the greens um at 83 he just a just a lot of appeal there um for me to play him so um yeah it’s
It’s for me down the AKA it’s going to be a whole lot of zator Cam young and Tom Kim Tom Kim ruined me I had him in half of my lineups in round four Showdown that I locked in Jake knap and had EVR for 50% of those lineups too so
I had like the two aces in the hole and then Tom Kim not just like playing an averagely bad round play just a completely dis ous utterly pathetic catastrophically bad round four like what were you doing you know like water balls bizar like I don’t know if he
Plays these Florida courses well like I don’t think he likes water so he’s pissed me off enough that I’m just off hey Clean Slate give him a clean slate this week just just get him in a few lineups okay hey I played Chan Cam and
You beg me to so just 5% yes throw him in my winning lineup and then he can nuke that as well for me but um no we’ll throw him in there with hopes I mean at that ownership why the hell not I don’t mind it at all Ron sjm course history
Broken golfer like it’s just you know there’s there’s opportunity for some people that are playing like good and bad he just seems like he’s completely lost right now it’s kind of sad and it’s interesting Ron I was thinking about this the other like I don’t know what I
Was doing but for someone that plays as much golf as sanj for him to be playing bad golf that can like really be like exponential bad for you you know like the more golf you play the more it’s bad the worse it’s going to get you know because your confidence level just gets
Plummeted like that quicker you know it’s just you don’t have that much space in between rounds to figure your stuff out he plays so much golf it’s like a really interesting situation let me say this though so just think about this so we have a small field event and if
You’re trying to get leverage okay now I’m not recommending anyone do this but if you’re if you’re playing 150 lineups I would do this okay so if you combine maxom and Sun jm’s ownership I’m seeing 177% total okay if you put both of those guys in the same lineup again they
Haven’t been playing well they’ve been playing poorly in fact but again both with good course history here again these are the some of the risks you know if you can find two guys who I mean these both are elite players and so you know for me if I was multim maxing those
Are two guys and and that’s something I I i’ started to do more is look for combinations of guys two two guys with with low ownership who are elite players who just tend to be struggling and so you never know if this is their week where they bounce back you’re going to
Be way ahead of the field if you have two not just one but two guys like that right because you don’t even have to go into like the six and the lowest sevens to find that ownership because if they do have a bounce backround it’s going to
Be much better than trying to find a delinquent down in the 6K range right like that’s typically the the philosophy kind of rolling out there I kind of like that one but I’m always just very aggressive with ownership anyway so it’s naturally how I kind of build my lineups
Let’s dive into the the seven here though Chris Kirk Cory Connors two course history thoria sitting with 10th and seventh best course history over the last little while Cory Connors he’s just got these courses where he just kind of plays his good golf and and this is one
Of them the the ball striking is sixth in the field the short game is 66th there’s 69 people in the field you know like that’s what you’re going to be getting and I think that that short game kind of gets nullified a little bit at this venue you see seems to figure it
Out the same thing with Chris Kirk very good at scrambling around these golf courses loves himself some Florida golf there two little ropey draw guys it’s kind of funny how they they found success at this golf course I’ve Got Jake knap and Benny arm labeled right
Underneath them too at $7,600 a piece I feel like Benny On’s distance and his around the green play are two top 10 traits you know top 15 traits in this field which I’m cool leaning on both of those for Benny a and Jake knap has just
Been hitting his iron so well the last 16 rounds I know it’s cherry picking some metrics here but Jake naaps third in the field in ball striking over the last 16 rounds you know the four tournaments he’s played since the farmers so we’ll have to see what he
Gets up to this week this is the first big test he’s had of really going up against the big boys but he held his own against Rory in three consecutive rounds of golf and actually outed him you know so now he gets JT I’m curious as to
Where that goes and then I’ll pick up the broken Shane Larry Ron you know my stance on him you know I was I called it on Sunday he got right in the mix and it was inevitable you know like it was just inevitable he just he’s the Thanos of
Golf world where he just clicks his fingers and just melts himself off the leaderboard for no reason but I’m going back to him this week I feel like he’s got a good shot at this golf course after playing good golf last week yeah there’s a there’s a couple
Course history stands that I’m taking this week as far as stand like not playing and so Shane Lowry is one of those so but good luck to you um yeah for me like uh Chris Kirk you know I think this course doesn’t seem like it would fit him you know as well because
It’s a longer longer track you know a lot of longer iron shots but like when you look at not only his course history here but his recent form so his last nine tournaments he’s got seven top 30s in his last nine so you know obviously he won the century long
Really big course um so I just think that he’s kind of even transforming into this allaround player who can almost play at any course um and just his consistency and his form and at 10% ownership I don’t know if you’re seeing more than that but I think he’s gonna
Yeah with yeah with Corey Conor sitting right there and you know Adam Scott below I think I think Kirk if anything I think his ownership will go down as we head into you know tonight and so I think he’s a really appealing play um but yeah I agree with Cory Connors he’s
Another good chot guy this week you know three top 21s here and again goes back to those same metrics you know accuracy off the tea Elite long iron play uh Bermuda his best putting surface and we just see him continually playing well on these tough courses if whether it’s
Augusta National obviously you know he owns TPC San Antonio and and here as well so um and then yeah going down I think Adam Scott is another maybe the biggest misprice um on the Slate here you know worldclass driver he’s got two third place finishes here
He’s in the midst of one of the best stretches of his career I mean he’s got seven straight top 20s he’s got five top eights inside of those seven um so he’ll be owned but I think he’s an excellent safe anchor for your lineups who also
Brings top five upside so I think he’s just an overall great play and then yeah Keegan Bradley is another guy who you know a lot of people who are trying to you know I’m I’m not necessarily going to try to have a lot of Scotty and Rory
In the same lineups but you know I think those people who do have both I think you’re going to see a lot of Keegan Bradley ownership here uh for me it’s going to be more or less playing one of those top guys and then kind of mixing
In you know the other ranges in but yeah Keegan Bradley five top 12s here um seems to elevate his game in strong field events if you remember the Travelers last year was a signature event um he’s the seventh best player on uh in Florida courses going back
Uh 20 to 2016 so I think he’s another underpriced player and I’ll just I’ll just wrap up the bottom of the 7K range here I think Luke list might be one of my favorite plays in this entire field you know he was runner up at Riviera
Very similar ball striking test uh he is the best at least in my numbers the best long iron player in this field from 200 plus yards tends to thrive on these longer courses uh he’s a good par five scorer and and he’s kind of incent form
Right now so um I think Luke list is one of those Co fit guys who um is going to be a pretty big staple in my lineups and I’ll finish with uh with Bez Christian bazen Hood At 7K you know surprisingly sneaky history here and again we get
Down on this range you know kind of picking and choosing guys based on a couple things and you know uh he’s been playing pretty well recently this year as well well in 2024 he’s gained the second most stres on approach in this field it’s been 15 rounds of golf but
Still he went on this tear on the front line speak about another guy that completely just sabotaged himself with the cognizant he was inside the top 10 at one point on the front line of of Friday and then missed the cut like it was the craziest situation I’ve ever
Seen he just completely nuked and it was it was one person that tweeted out like Bez woke up feeling dangerous and the moment he tweeted that out it just went to crap it was quite funny like he got absolutely re for it anyway I do love
Bei I love I kind of fed on some course history stuff here and he’s the only other option outside of sjim to to catch some single figure ownership for for really good course history plays so we’ll have to see what he can get up to
I’m very curious as to see how his ball striking kind of fits to this golf course since his irons have come back to life some other options that I did want to mention is luk list like you said there on I have an outout on him if you
Think about that Tory pin comp I mean he’s won that tournament before he played phenomenally at Riv so the pter has let him down big time at this golf course I think we could expect him to like kind of just be neutral or gain a few more Strokes on the greens this week
So I don’t mind him whatsoever also want to mention Steven Jer I think the way he’s driving the golf ball right now can just really catalyze the rest of his game he’s a pretty good long iron player as well if you take a look at like weighted T weighted green regulation rates he’s
Fourth in the field like he’s very good out of the rough like very very good when he actually leads this field in green regulation rates from 150 yards an hour step Jer so that’s ideal to me you know he’s a very good driver of the ball
He led the field last week in driving missed the cut because he can’t putt so we’ll have to see what he can do there but I’m cool for him at $7,200 at 7% ownership whatever do you agree with this 14% Harris English ownership as I I know he
Does have a good track record on these longer courses tougher conditions but I’m just not just the current form I’m just not seeing it Ron if there’s I’m cool with like ownership for course history if it makes sense course history to me but if if like the the golfer
Profile doesn’t check out like if he has to make a Million Parts in order for that to happen that can I think and that’s his thing right is just he’s so good with the short game at this course I don’t I don’t buy it you know like
I’ll let the 14 of the you know like whatever I know he finished second year I kind of flew up the leaderboard on Sunday I think he had a bogey free round on Sunday which was incredible but yeah I don’t see it this week you know like I
Mean he’s coming into the week playing okay but the ball stking has just been pretty bad kind of out of control for for for all that we know so we’ll leave him alone let’s dive into actually before we do that what about Tom hogi I know like he’s really really good with
The approach player right now he’s third in the field but the round the green play has been bad but the putting has been pretty solid you know the last little while it’s an interesting situation yeah he’s I mean he’s always a guy who can just get so hot with his irons so yeah
7100 um I been I been like a little bit of Nikolai hoard who’s right above him at 72 you know he kind of fits the profile for this course I know he struggled recently uh but you know another pretty good low ownership number on him so um he’s another interesting
Name and and this is again we’re kind of in mix and match territory if you’re playing a ton of lineups with some of these guys um so a guy like Tom hogi probably wouldn’t make my pool if I’m focusing on you know 20 lineups 30 lineups but yeah if I’m expanding
Outward I think you have to include him yeah I agree cool bananas all right let’s Di into the Sixers yeah where we’re going to have to find some value if you are starting with a pretty staunch top of the board there let’s chat about manui I think he’s the Talk
Of the Town here in the 6K range $6,600 I had a Benny on match up against him and I was tilting pretty much the entire week menu finished at minus 14 for the week he shot minus 14 on the 12 power fives for the week he played 12 holes under 14 under
Par the rest of them he played level and beat beat my guy by like three or four shots like I couldn’t believe it he had one of the best approach weeks of his life Hing out like just hitting three Woods to four feet it was mindbending stuff Ron were more tilting
Than Tom Kim these Korean Australians are just driving me nuts right now so not to be country or anything like that but you know I’ve never been a fan of those Australians they a bunch of cheats when it comes to Cricket anyway so anyway Ron give me your take on
Mani I mean I agree completely with his price being just horrible like he should probably be especially you know after last week he probably should at least be around 8K so I don’t have no idea what they’re thinking here um that being said you know I’m seeing 25ish percent right
Now and I don’t know if if if people know this about his last two years here at the Arnold Palmer but he’s lost lost 18.8 Strokes in two events like he’s completely bombed out um losing nine Strokes off the te which doesn’t make any sense for how good of a driver he is
And yeah he’s he’s a much I think he’s we’d all agree he’s much improved even from last year so I’m not putting a ton of stock into that as much as I am just you know the ownership and even if you look um right next to him you know Eric
Von royan probably another guy who’s underpriced and he’s also coming in at you know 12 133% and so yeah for me like in this area I think the ultimate pivot maybe one of the biggest pivot opportunities ever is a guy like Patrick Rogers who’s right there
6,500 um you know a guy who is one of the best off the te players he is uh you know top 30 short game you know and so I think if you’re looking to get different um I think Patrick Rogers makes sense um and I’ll even go up a little bit and
There’s there’s not a lot really intrigues me in this range um but I do think um your boy amelo Grio at 6,900 with his course history with his you know pretty decent form his putting is so much improved um and I think when you combine that with his ball striking I I
Do think he has some upside here and you know I I would not be surprised if he you know finishes top 10 top 15 and so um yeah I think Justin Rose is is a little interesting as well just because of his pedigree you know again we can we
Can get into some other things with his game but I think I think Grio and Patrick Rogers are going to be my main two guys down here yeah Patrick Rogers I mean he hasn’t played phenomenally around this golf course you know like he’s made four Cuts though in the last
Five consecutive years that he’s played here and then this year at the farmers ninth Mexico you know played quite nicely too finished six so he’s got these courses where the bomber narrative comes through and he’s been playing good golf there I’m cool with him at 65 um love Grio as well just majorly
Concerning when it comes to the round the green play you know like I can see him completely chipping himself out of this tournament but at the same time you’re most likely not going to chip a ball into the water so you’re probably just going to lose like one stroke you
Know like versus bad Iron play can lose you one and a half to two strokes so hopefully he can keep it together I know I’m looking at it in a weirdly optimistic and pessimistic light there but it is what it is another name that if you just kind of take unique
Characteristics from his game and he grades out quite nicely from a comore standpoint for me is McKenzie use at $6,100 he’s very very good around the greens he’s typically a very good putter when he gets like firing and His short his short uh his long iron’s out of the
Rough he’s 15th in greeny regulation rates out of the rough from 15 out so he kind of knows how to get the ball on the green when it comes to these long long approach shots out the rough now I don’t know exactly how that’s going to translate to thick thick rough like
We’ve seen over here but McKenzie hu is not a terrible option he finished 61st year last year made the cut $6,100 you know if you’re looking for an option to get very very expensive up top he gives you that so I don’t mind that at all and
See what’s going on and then I did a filter on where you do the top 20 in accuracy and the top 20 in distance in my model and Victor hin was one of them Scotty Sheffer Patrick hle Grayson Murray was the fourth and final guy to make that cut great par five score
Too so a lot I mean he’ll be non-owned you know people don’t like him he hasn’t been playing good golf I feel like a big boy Golf Course like this he’s pretty good at scrambling you know I think if you take a look at what he got up to on
The corn fairy tour his scrambling was pretty good he’s around the green play is very good so we’ve got a 12th in around the green play and 12th off the te for Grayson Murray was $6,000 flat two very important like if your irons just don’t hit the water he can get up
And down for par right and that’s going to be like we saw that at the Sony when he was just scrambling his life away so he’s another another guy I’ll be leaning on at $66,000 flat we’ll see what cooks little shout out to Andrew Novak who you
Mentioned didn’t make the field he’s had as many top 10 as web Simpson has Novak has had three top 10 in his last three starts like you mentioned Webb has had three since 2022 like it’s just an atrocity that he’s in the field I don’t understand why
We got to make sure that that changes hopefully this goes viral so that he can get himself in there last minute who knows just kidding anyway Ron pick your range any range let me know who’s your favorite and let’s try and actually try to remember I I feel like we just kind
Of continuing forgetting even when when you’ve won the the tournament with your guy basically pick a range let’s figure out who we going to match up against each other there um let’s see here yeah let’s um let’s go a little top of the board here let’s go we’ll we’ll
Take out Scotty and Rory let’s let’s go 10,000 we’ll start with Patrick Klay and uh let’s go let’s take it down to take it down to Wily Z at 8900 so 10K to 8900 and you go first again cool I’ll go with spe um I will
Um I’ll go with Victor um I think I think yeah speed speed does have you know what I think it’s back-to-back top Force here so um would be interesting to see if Victor can kind of turn it around and and get back up top here I I don’t
Like that matchup because I like them both you know so I’m gonna be rooting against myself but it’s just for a buck so I’ll have to get over that I have for what it’s worth I have Victor hland in all three have my one and done this week
I’m locking them in did you um I was going to ask you do you have any did you even look at Puerto Rico at all yes let me um let me look quickly chat about let me pull up who I bet yeah so I think um so yeah there’s
Not a lot of um opportunity on DraftKings this week um I think the they could have made the contest a little bigger but yeah I think you know Chris got her up I don’t understand I I understand he does fit the course well but he’s like second in betting odds
Right now which kind of blows my mind um but yeah Ben Griffin 9600 on DraftKings I think he’s a really good this course um he’s due for a win um if you want to go down a little bit further I think Brandon woo always plays these Coastal
Tracks well um he’s at 9k uh Nate Lashley second best course history here at Grand Reserve Golf Club he’s 8,700 and Michael Kim you know he’s kind of had his struggles um here but I think some of these guys you just get them to these these Coastal tracks where it’s a
Little more scoring the field is so weak um so I think Michael Kim I love that price for him and even right below him Victor Perez um you know the Frenchman who had a good week last week um 8,500 you know he moved to Scotland he is so
Used to the windy conditions that they’re going to see this week so I think he’s another really good play um and then just a couple others um Alejandro toasty struggling at some of these you know Big Boy courses I think get him down here where the scoring it’s
A little more freewheeling down there um in Puerto Rico I love him at 7500 and even a guy like Vince Wy 7200 I really like that number as well yeah I don’t mind them at all I think that’s the thing you can just fire away at these 70 to1 ranges in this
Course and and this field like someone’s got to win this thing I rolled out Ben Silverman who’s been playing really good golf and you know like he was right in the mix again last week and then I also rolled out niiko aaria who I think was
At 70 to1 at one point now he’s 45 so that was a nice little number there if I was gonna pick someone short of of 30 it’s Chan Kim at 30 I really like Chan and I think what did they score here last year like minus 20- 17 like if we
Can get low you know I think varia I think he was at minus 23 here last year yeah so Chan Kim making birdies on a course like that I’m I’m actually going to pull the trigger so those will be my three guys I think Silverman Chia and
Chan Kim I see higo in the field Bergers in the field we’ve got some interesting names so we’ll we’ll see what those boys can get up to Aaron Ry doesn’t make any sense at this golf course but he’s playing so go for it you know like it’s
Going to be a fun week did you dabble in any live at all I see cam cam Smith is catching a ton of hype I’m I’m potentially going to do a Brooks kopka at um what’s the next event they play the the big tough track I can’t remember
The name now could not tell you yeah it’s gonna I’m gonna do a Brooks double at the Masters I’m gonna say he’s gonna win the live event and win The Masters if he WN if he loses that one he’s not going to win The Masters in my opinion
So we’ll see what happens but um that’s just my small little take on that um am excited to see cam Smith Make It To The Masters yes soon in April all right folks um have a great week don’t forget to check out the rabbit hole don’t forget to dive over to
Bed spurts golf send Ron a DM if you’re looking for a promo code if you aren’t in those verid States and this week don’t forget it’s 69 golfers it’s lots of salary pivot your faceal friends
