Our PGA DFS experts ANALYZE the ARNOLD PALMER INVITATIONAL taking place this weekend! Find out who they are recommending for your DraftKings and FanDuel lineups!
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First time ever I realized there’s a private chat in streamyard and I look at my first message it says I’m in here you dope well I’m surprised that you’re alive because I know that you’ve been hosting like the whole company minus myself in Kentucky I got a couple
Questions is that your home did you rent that house or did you live in that house fulltime F well first of all I like these you need to come next time for sure second absolutely I mean it’s very good having Face presence with with your staff and your team uh versus everything
Going by Discord and virtual because as we know you can get into some you know when you meet face to face things different that’s that’s the world we used to live in it’s not the world we live in now and it’s it’s a lot better
World at times uh no one’s dead yet um I am the am so I’m I’m I’m not 28 anymore so I don’t like I’m Mr Irish goodbye I am done by 9:30 10 I’m hanging around and I’m [ __ ] climbing over the gate I’m just out of there right no see you later bye
Like Dad is gone I’m going right to bed um take your money in poker then go to bed um so yeah it’s uh yeah it’s been fun man I by the way just turned 29 and I’ve been on your schedule for the past like five years um
So I’m a massive advocate of the soon as the clock strikes around like 11 pm I’m I’m out of there those days are those days are behind me I retired from that in the in my early me too I play a good game but are you a good poker
Player uh um am I a good poker player I will say yes I’m a good poker player um uh funny story about the other night but yes did okay with the guys um it’s easy playing group of guys when they’re just absolutely obliterated right right right who do you think the
Best poker player is at RPS at RPS yeah probably a guy named JT Hayes well at the house right now probably JT Hayes I’m gonna say me onea yeah I’m pretty bad at at uh at Blackjack and poker uh anything that isn’t sports betting I would say
I’m I’m suboptimal you know what I’m shitty at golf I [ __ ] can’t play anymore I can’t that I’m that I’m good at did you play golf recently I did I [ __ ] I don’t play enough I’ve got this lingering hand injury and uh it’s frustrating we’ll try to get it back but
Yesterday was crap show 5,000 uh so yeah we’re not we’re not we need to work on the game um I’m incredible at roulette says Kyle huette roulette for huette uh brought to you by AutoZone Auto Zone as I said yesterday to everyone at the house are you in the
Zone get the [ __ ] out get out get out of my house I don’t know how I’d play you at 5K oh I’d play you at 5K yeah usually we burn out with our sponsors after a couple shows like Jersey Jersey miks was done with us
After a show they said we don’t want any part of these Hooligans no they they will email me and say please stop mentioning us on your show somebody went Depot the other day and told me my code no longer works there as well no they’ll do that
It still works a DQ Grill and show try to buy chainsaw with promo code no you can buy a shovel and a chaina um and and firewood with Andy code what is it Andy code 15 get a hacksaw too hacksaw um so okay we got so much to
Talk about oh yeah ghost here I did lose my voice I was screaming so loudly at these idiots because I thought they were scamming me that’s my thing though I I generate these conspiracy theories Within Myself to get an edge and I believe that they were taking my money
They I believe Bryce Morrow third in long was over counting my buyin for poker and I and I started like dis you know everything so I lost my voice turns out I was wrong of course um but yeah so here’s what I want to talk about one first things first we are
Going to debate structure of build on the Arnold Palmer Invitational uh I think the most controversial player this week in terms of price will be one player we’ve been talking about in Discord and whether or not to play him but have did you learn anything from these ding-dongs at uh at
The Honda sorry the cognizant I’m very frustrated with the course not being as difficult as it was in previous years uh we can’t be all reliant on wind um I don’t think it taught me a lot about last week or the players um I don’t I I
Don’t know what to carry forward from it honestly it was disappointing well first of all we will definitely talk some men woo because the discourse uh I think that the minwoo decision this week is is one of the more fascinating uh DFS predicaments I think
We’ve we’ve had in in quite some time um yeah where was the invite Wy mine got lost in the mail too I didn’t find out this happen until Andy said Natalie canot go she was actually invited um anyway so we’ve been talking about minwoo all morning in the Discord all last night
Too like I was I was deep diving every single angle of this player and I find myself the more I dive into mid Woo’s statistical profile and his Trends even more confused than uh where I was when I offic when I first saw the pricing uh Saul our our friend actually sent a
Message to one of the guys over at DraftKings he posted this in the Discord for us that does the pricing and said can you just acknowledge how much you screwed up this minwoo thing yeah and are you gonna change it he’s actually a nice guy I’ve communicated with him a little bit for
Myself yeah he listens to the podcast he’s a he’s a good dude but he was like no he was a late ad we’re just gonna leave it guys are underpriced every week and it’s like yeah guys are underpriced every week but I mean is anyone blinking
If minwoo is 8.4 in this field um and and I mean to bring it back to what you asked about the Honda you know if you’re looking for not to play minwoo his long-term iron numbers are really poor and this is maybe the hardest approach course on the PGA tour
In terms of the firmness of the greens the amount of long irons that you’re going to need to hit out of the rough and so just at a macro level if you want to fade minwoo on the basis of he is simply not a good enough iron player to
Compete at this golf course there’s Merit in that argument now with that being said he gains six Strokes on Approach at the Honda right the the best iron week of his entire career by Two Strokes which puts your brain in a pretzel because we didn’t play him at the Honda and we
Talked about this on the Wednesday show because in his last start he had the worst iron week of his entire career so minwoo goes from having the worst iron week of his entire career losing five in Phoenix to the best week of his entire career at the Honda gaining six um which
Has I mentioned just totally puts your brain in a pretzel how many how many tiers does cognizant have to collect every time we still call up the Honda so Honda’s getting the same still bounce and will forever get the same bounce even though they don’t put a dollar into
It anymore so yeah you get a what is it a free Honda Accord Andy code 15 RPS yeah if Honda doesn’t want any part of that that tournament anymore brought to we’re gonna this show is sponsored by Honda now we’re sponsored by Honda we go
There we go um no here’s what I’m like here’s my here’s my Pro side for minu Lee if you look at historical winners of the API and we’ll talk about this I put my notes up your your article’s out again your article is the articulate uh well well-edited version of of of this
Week Plus stats plus things you look for only exclusive exclusive to members at RPS um use code andy5 to sign up and read them we’ve got we’ve got a golf only package so you can give it a try for a week or a month but what I said in
My notes is that this is another Florida swing brute uh Bay Hill um if it is it is you know it’s arie’s place so he’s such a respected figure in golf uh players loved coming here they love coming here I don’t know if there’s more well it’s an elevated event now but I
Don’t know if there’s more sort of disconnection from AR since he’s been gone and people just want to step away from this course because if you hear The Whispers behind the scenes this is one of the players at least the ones I’ve talked to not their favorite place to
Play right totally totally totally um and you rarely get complaints because it is arie’s place and it is revered and he’s such a revered player uh and and personality of the game he did so much for the game but the one time you did hear something was from Rory in 2022
After he went 7676 on the weekend and lost to sheffler is that he thought it didn’t reward good shots and that’s something you rarely hear from someone like Rory who’s very political and very wellth thought um in terms of his comments but that’s that’s the issue
Here it’s very long uh Orlando can or winterm can get windy and very firm and fast that to the point where you can’t even control the ball on the green so you’ve seen really good iron players and I’m getting back to the midm Lee point that’s how you Circle back
[ __ ] um but you’ve seen really good iron players but more importantly you’ve seen guys sand belt players Mark Lehman good iron player good win player sand belt Australian you’ve seen TL Hatton uh you’ve seen Lee Westwood before the retirement from golf you know open style players win players Euro
Players good iron players um and if you look historically Bryson did well here before he retired from golf if you look I guess that’s a theme if you win at the API you’re done you’re You’re gone to live um yeah well we Rory Jason day still hanging around I suppose what’s
Going on with Matt everyy these days he won this turnament that’s the anomaly he used to own this place right I know know he’s fantastic but onto minu Le is that you know he’s sand belt golf Goodwin player um I will make the case you know I put in my notes
Um this has the most difficult par 3s on tour and I think a lot of players don’t love the long over 200 par 3s they’ve got three of them they’re all in the in the top 10 on difficulty holes on this course and so they’re very important to
The overall 4day architecture of your round so if you look at approaches over 200 yards in the years that these players were successful for instance Bryson number one two 2021 and one he was number one in in procs from over 200 if you look at 2020 Hat number seven he
Won Lehman second place number 10 if you if you want to look at something because that’s very important to this course is the are the par 3s firm fast it’s going to be windy this weekend and you know decently sized par fivs which are the easiest holes in the
Course MH you look that’s the one thing that mmu LE is from his approach game is actually decent at so for me I’m looking at decent long iron players um you know can handle the wind um Aussies Cam Davis Adam Scott course history yeah Adam hadwin’s a good playoff we can we
Can get we can get to that in a second that’s you go over what you think of this course those are my notes on Twitter right now from watching this tournament year after year and saying [ __ ] this is something we need to look out for every year you
Know you have you have single digits winning three of the last four years um you had Scotty Sheffer win minus four in 2022 that’s that’s extraordinarily difficult course that’s US Open type conditions right yeah actually the both the Hatton and Sheffer years it played as the hardest course on the PJ tour including
The majors um the other thing I would say and I talked about this in the podcast that I did on Sunday and this is such a this is such um it’s gonna be so interesting to see what happens with this trend of unheralded longer shot PGA Tour winners
This year because if that doesn’t change this week then I I don’t know when it would ever change because this golf course EX accentuates TD green skill more so than any other golf course on the PGA tour in terms of how difficult it is to gain stroks off the tea and how
Difficult it is to gain stroks on approach uh and this can tie us back into the minwoo conversation as well in pricing uh in my opinion the advantage that Scotty Sheffer and Rory mroy have at this golf course and you could throw ludvig into that category based on his driving
Ability you could throw havin into that categ you could throw Cameron young into that category you could throw will zorus into that category these guys that typically raise their Baseline on firmer greens longer rough US Open style tests very very challenging T green tests like this category of courses like Bay Hill Tory
Pines Memorial Marco Simone was like this Brook line a lot of the US Winged Foot oakill right uh Bay Hill falls into that category where these types of players like Sheffer and Rory um and a couple of the guys I just mentioned how how many times did Tiger win Tory Pines
And be yeah tiger yeah tiger and I I talked about in the Pod too it’s like you look at The Strokes gain total at it’s like Bryson Winged Foot oill Bill connection you look at the best guys in Strokes gain total at Bay Hill over the
Last 15 years it’s like four the best eight players of the last two decades right so this golf course more than basically any other golf course on the PGA tour gives the elite players that are Elite at this skill a leg up right they start on second base over a
McKenzie Hughes or an Adam shank on this golf course more more so than any golf course on the PGA tour and because of the way that the pricing is this week where we’ve reverted back to a more flat traditional draft King structure and Scotty this is another thing we were
Just talking about in the Discord Scotty’s 113 Rory’s 106 like the build of Rory Scotty in the same lineup you just throw Min woo in there yeah and you have a you’re cooking with gas like you’ve got I think 7.4 remaining um so I think it’s a free Square it really is a free Square however you want to play it
I mean that’s what people are going to look at it as they’re going to look at it as I would argue there’s no such thing as a free Square Eng golf but but this is probably as I mean okay let me ask you two questions question number
One if you were in charge of pricing this week what would you price men will um it’s it’s surprising they did that because they always they always Trail the betting market and I was like did he open at 110 or something I mean
He’s 35 to1 now right so no 35 to I mean he he probably should have been 79 wor I would say 82 because you look at the low eights and it’s Poston sunj Russ Henley seah and like Russ Henley for example Russ Henley was 10-2 at the Honda okay and he finishes
40th and then he’s 8K so yeah got Tommy at 88 which is the high end of that range I mean the the right right and and Min WS is 9 Honda yeah he’s he’s 9.6 at the Honda finishes second and is now $400 cheaper than Russell at eight so I
Think and how many times won the PJ tour how many times is Tommy fleetw won the PJ tour uh zero zero good I like him this week though I don’t think he can win but I think he’s a good I think he’s a decent play Blake
Gy said 7900 you are in the zone yeah you are in the zone get in the zone Blake yeah I would say 82 but I think 7 that’s fine I’m cool with that but that’s yeah so how many times can you remember a guy being 1,400 off what you think he should
Be this one I mean we’ve had some differences is but the betting Market tracked it um in terms of I can’t believe this player is 3,000 less than this player in this case this is just a uh an obvious mess that people are going to jump all
Over um because really in an essentially a no cut event m w Le doesn’t need to do a tremendous amount at that price uh and if you’re playing the double stud model right if you’re playing Sheffer Rory and and I and I for sure believe uh minw Le will be the it will
Be Sheffer minw Le 1221 in terms of in terms of ownership I think sheffler by Far and Away will be the far the highest own I think Sheffer based on what we’ve seen recently 12K feno um what was last week was R 12K we’ve had two 12ks in a row RoR Rory was
122 and he was like 30% right 30% right um Sheffer the greatest ball Striker on Earth struggling with putting has one here uh in a course that demands the best approach game which he’s got it the best TD green game which he’s got it
Um I like Sheffer is a sheffer’s I I set the over under 30.05 I’m saying the over on that to my my opinion I think that I have Rory and Chef are closer in ownership than you do I think yeah I mean I think that Rory will get owned
Too people love playing that guy last week again mid yeah mid um well let’s do this okay I think this is valuable because I think a lot of people myself included are struggling with this decision let’s pretend that um we’re in court like our friend Kobe does
For his day job and you uh you can be the defense of playing Min Woodley and I’ll be the prosecution which we’re role playing here and I will I I will I will be the the counter argument or the argument for why you should fade him God I
Wish Cowboy I know right so if you’re making the case to play minwoo Le um where are you starting okay I am making the case because you know my my notes uh that I write to myself every year are play players that have history in wind and firm and fast conditions least again
Sand belt player Min Le is that guy Min Le I think is a better approach player than the stats talk about I think he has some legs from that from last week um if you look at over 200 yards which I’m really dialing in on I don’t really look
At Stats but you know these par 3s are extremely important and players hate them um minu is decent and you know he just check I mean plus the price is it makes it absurd almost not to play him because again he doesn’t have to do much
If you have a sheffler mini built right if you just lock those two and then do a 4v4 I mean in cash Min be owned absurdly um but that would be my case for Min woi I think he’s he’s a tour winner he’s good TD green he’s got around the green prowess
Um that would be my my defense Kobe deau Style with the mustach of mbuli what’s your offense what’s your prose ution of M Le I would say that you should he sucks it’s over um I would say that the gap between any player on the PGA tour right
Now and the player that they are next to in pricing is a lot smaller than I think the average DFS player um may think and I’ve been able to formulate an edge understanding that mindset over the last couple of years quite nicely so let’s say Min Woodle is we be
Conservative here and say in um a large contest what do you think 25% minimum more minimum minimum go we’ll go 30% I think the 50% is a little bit nah you won’t see that it’s a little myopic to say he’s going to be 50% I feel like and here’s why here’s what
Is that you have yes because you have uh wind player EVR real I mean big huge round round four last week yeah people will play EVR and they’re right next door to each other agreed i i c yep I I currently have EVR well over
10% as well so I think that eats a little bit of you just can’t get there I mean unless you play both so right um now with that being said in higher Stakes would you be shocked if there are a couple higher Stakes um contest where menw is 80% right
Because a lot of the higher Stakes players a lot of the higher Stakes players will look at the Vegas odds and say to themselves minwu Lee is 40 to1 50 to1 in this field he’s priced next to guys that are 150 to one I mean he’s
Minus 110 in a matchup right now against Wills aloris who’s a great play at 8,900 yeah that’s I mean I I say in high stakes he’s over 40 that’s the number yeah so so back to my prosecution case right if we have minwoo in the 30 to 40%
Range depending on what tournament you are playing um me and Kobe talked about this strategically last week uh a lot on the Wednesday show that we did where the goal that you want to strive for and PGA DFS if you’re trying to win gpps is to
To knock out the players that you are playing against and acquire a high six of six rate in a week where there’s a low six of six rate right so you could basically just take the thought process of I’m gonna take the chance that minwoo stinks this week which is very possible
I mean he just finished almost dead last at the Phoenix Open a week ago sure um he does have a low floor at times okay now if you are able to knock out 30 to 40% of the field getting it wrong on minwoo and just say to yourself This is
The Arnold Palmer Invitational this is where chalk comes to die every single week people are hopefully starting to learn more and more that nothing is a sure thing best play in the Slate last week Eric Cole finishes dfl okay and that’s not because Eric Cole’s a bad
Golfer that’s because in two rounds of golf like anything can happen on these Florida water heavy courses you can hit a couple into the water and it’s over nothing to guarantee he Eric Cole went went out on a three- hole stretch I mean done done and so so there is just if
You’re trying to win a gpp and you say to yourself on this golf course okay where water comes into play on nine holes where minwoo has horrendous history um I mean we’ve seen minwoo finish dfl in both of his appearances at the Arnold Palmer Invitational essentially so he just may hate this
Golf course like he just may absolutely despise it like many other PGA Tour Pros do if you’re going to say to yourself the upside of what my DraftKings lineups could look like on the off chance that minwoo stinks is way higher than the upside that I am getting if Min wo is
Good and I play him because let’s say minwoo is good or he finishes T12 still doesn’t guarantee I’m going to win any money if you play minwoo at 40% and he finishes T12 you’re not cashing a check you’re not guaranteed a goddamn thing you still
Have to beat 40% of the field and you may even lose still there may even be a guy in the 60s that other guys play that is way less owned than minwoo than outperforms men wo as well so the case on Fading men wo is is basically just
Understanding Game Theory but it’s risky it’s ballsy he’s mispriced by like four you know 1,200 bucks yeah that’s I mean it’s it’s again we’ll use this analogy again but it’s the pick six in horse racing right you want you want you want the ticket you don’t people talk about
Odds or people talk about anything you want the ticket that no one else has that’s what you want that’s what you want in DraftKings you want the ticket that no one else has you can get that ticket that no one else has in a six in a six pick environment even with a
Couple of chalky plays that’s the difference I don’t I don’t really fear ownership as much as some people um I fear ownership of bad plays I don’t think Min mle is a I don’t I would not be the lock Min mule guy I definitely will play some of him yeah because he
Does give you options with I would lock sheffler okay I will lock Sheffer and here’s how you do it I mean here’s and this this may lead to something behind the scenes with RPS but you if you strip out pricing in golf if you strip out pricing and golf with
Drafting you don’t even look at it don’t even look at it and you just do a board of of players and their and their world ranking and say treat this as a best ball treat this as a best ball and you have first pick who is everyone taking
In this board who is everyone taking for this tournament largely Scotty Sher probably to a probably to a 7030 ratio tooy yeah uh and then who you taking next right yeah people get if you if you detach yourself from ownership and pricing now obviously you limits in
Terms of what you can make your second and third choice um but taking sheffler which everyone would do treat your lineup building like that take the best players and if sheffler will allow you to take a minwu Lee who should be probably 79 regardless of ownership minm Lee I
Mean you could fight about it all day with stats yeah he could he could miscut again here I’m a huge course history truther that’s why I’m not in love with minui and I don’t love 40% ownership on him I love Cam Davis Adam hadwin more to
Be honest with you I think Adam hadwin is a is a great play um I like Cam Davis as a play so yeah if Scotty Sheffer is 50% I’m still playing Scotty Sheffer at a lock so so you’re all in on Scotty I can do when I mean I showed it last week
With my 555 I have two heavily owned players sadly with Eric Cole right but then I’ve got guys who are less than 5% owned who who did well um no one’s gonna have a dupe ticket of that uh and and that’s just how I you know look at that
Higher Stakes build so yeah I mean it’s just play the best plays detach yourself from ownership and pricing for first of all treat it like a best ball and who are the who are the top five players you’re playing I mean my one is obviously chevler two maybe not even Rory for
Me yeah I mean I I look at it a little bit differently I I I’m definitely more in the game theory Camp of understanding that you’re playing a game against better players and so you have I agree with you there you are playing you’re playing against the player you’re not
Playing the player you’re not playing the golfer you’re playing against the field 100% that’s why sa is so good it’s basically applying your game theory of contest SS and saying listen I love Andy that you love all these plays let us assemble it based on what other people
Are going to do so you win right um and I think that’s the issue with like the Vagas odds things and and you’re not playing against a sports book you’re playing against other people so what people Miss is you have to weigh the opportunity cost of what happens if
You’re wrong right and I think in golf people are generally wrong more than they think the gap between who they think is the best play and who they think has no chance is like let’s just give the example of last week and don’t get me wrong I missed on this too like I
Did not I had 0% minwoo Eric Cole and minwoo Lee were right next to each other in pricing and people made decision willingly knowing that Eric Cole was going to be chalk and Min W was going to be 6% that they were gonna ride a 25%
Eric Cole over a 6% minwood Le and we saw what happens um and and that is that is golf in a nutshell every single week so it’s very difficult to predict human behavior uh and it’s it’s so it’s very difficult to predict what a golfer is going to do
On three- hole stretch on Thursday to take himself out of a tournament like Eric Cole does that make him a bad player no but that’s the thing in golf and why golf Twitter is so volatile and Discord is so volatile with the golf because it’s very hard to have firm
Answers on any of these things right one thing one swing one clubface miss takes someone out of an entire tournament changes their stats oh they’re a terrible approach player they’re a terrible putter in NFL it’s easier you can walk up to Jamar Chase before the game and say you’re going to go eight
Catches 110 yards in a touchdown down and him not look at you like you’re insane but if I walk up to Min W Le this week on the on the Range and say you know what you’re going to play like [ __ ] you are gonna be you’re gonna be 35th I
Mean I’m an insane person at that point I don’t know the the one thing you can say is Scotty Sheffer I’d probably say he’s gonna finish top five and everyone be like yeah probably so um last question on men will because we should probably talk about some of the other players but
No we’re talking tylie man woo for an hour that’s it but Fighting Irish men this in the chat and I I thought it was a good good way to look at it if you play minwoo at whatever 30 40% um and you have the option before the tournament where uh minwoo goes to
You and says I’m gonna finish this are you signing for it like what’s the what’s the finish that minwoo has to have for you to be satisfied with your play like if comes up to you on Wednesday night and says hey I’m going to be 40% and I’m
Going to finish 12th are you playing him uh here’s well no I wouldn’t say yes or no I’d say where did hadwin finish where did EVR finish where did hogi finish yeah it’s like yeah that’s if that’s how you have to look at it if shef zero some game yeah no if Shefler
Finishes fifth I’m not going to say yes I should have played him I’m gonna say where did can’t land Rory finish one two okay then I’m not playing shuffler you have to look at this in very isolated price ranges of ownership because that’s how people are going to assemble things
In those pockets and that’s how I do it I did it for this week um in tiers 98 plus 87 plus 77 plus 67 plus and then six 6K plus you have to design the plays you like in those tiers and if you like
If you like Min wo Lee from the six to 66 range or six to however you Des your ranges if you think he’s the best play coming out bang that’s your guy like for me if you want to stretch him from the 67 to 77 range which maybe a little
Steep you even cut that in half I think hogi finishes better than mmu Lee I think Hog’s one of the best iron players on tour right yeah and he’s still continues to play very well so in that scenario I have the I want to play hogi over
Mini yeah not not not a not a completely like I’m not playing mini but I’ll play hogy at a a better ownership better iron player probably better form overall yeah that’s how you look at it and to put a bow on this conversation you actually may disagree with me because I think
There’ll be a lot of people that were will kind of hedge their bets and try and play field in minwoo if I was going to play Mino I would be way over the field on him I would just say to myself listen I don’t care what the ownership
Is this is a Mis price by like $1,500 I’m going to play minwoo and because I believe this is such a Mis price I’m going to get tremendous leverage on the guy over the field no matter what the price is and generally that’s the way I play like I keep such a
Tight pool that every single guy that I play I am over the field on most of the time 2x of the field on and that way if your tight core hits you really hit and you know you have to be okay with the fact that if you miss on a guy you know
You like I was 50% senson last week senson was in 50% of my lineups yeah I knew that he was gonna be high owned but that was my stand like I was like I love senson this week and um it didn’t work out for me and and Spen and alone kind
Of destroyed my week but I I think that’s the way that I would I would you do a you do a tight pool and heavy ownership on certain plays yeah so my pool is generally and I post it in the Wednesday article every single week so
People can see 20 20 players and I I do it cascading too um which works for me but there’s different ways to look at this but like for example what I will do on a typical week this changes from time to time based on how I like the tiers
But I will play Four Guys above 9k um I will play six guys between 8.9 and 7.5 and I will play 10 guys below 7.5 so the reason that I do it that way is because uh I am more confident and I have more data and I want to be higher
More highly exposed to the good players and I want to cast a wider net at the bottom because there’s more variant at the bottom uh right so what I will do generally and sometimes I break this rule if there’s a 7.2 guy that I like
Freaking love and I want 50% of them but generally what I’ll do in say a 20 Max Wy is I’ll my four guys above 9k I will have between 50 and 70% exposure to them my six guys between 7.5 and N I will have between 25 and 40%
Exposure to them and then my 10 guys below 7.5 I will have between 15% and 25% exposure to them which you know generally unless they’re super chalky under 7.5 which I don’t really play chalky guys I will be way over the field on every single person in my pool doing
Yeah the thing with golf is that there’s no correlation to anything um that’s that’s the trouble I mean you know if pukaa gets 11 catches that means Cooper cup probably got less than that and so you can correlate that way uh the correlation in golf happens with round
Four Showdown because you can you can you can attach it to placement um or even win narratives sometimes amm wiim narratives so really and then you throw in the randomness of scoring with DraftKings streaks under 60s uh Eagles um it becomes that much more difficult
So in in in this case scenario with a no cut event I think it’s top 55 then still right 10 10 within the lead is that right yes it’s top 50 in ties 10 within the lead yeah okay so in this case in a smaller field with probably a limited
Number of players getting uh getting cut and I could be wrong I mean it could be people absolutely implode um I’m going to have to single one or two players at least one in this pick six build because there’s going to be so many commonalities between the builds so what
That does for me it allows me if I single two players if I lock them and say [ __ ] it it’s gonna be Sheffer and player X that allows me to play a bigger pool um because I want all the combos at that point and that’s what I do for
Round four Showdown I will lock one two or even three players and if they hit the optimal because I because placement points are so important and I believe they’re either going to stay move up finish first second or third or or whatever then that allows me to play you
Know the the Grayson Murray Miracle round at 1% and have him in my pool that’s what I would do here so you play a really aggressive 20 player High ownership tip pool and believ your numbers perfect so yeah what are we talking about we talk about golf yeah real quick um so
Just in a vacuum you prefer uh she or teror does the new putter with sheer does that make you I mean it can’t get any worse right what’s the downside of him I am calling this because my first instinct I take it except for Sam Burns Riviera I’m not falling for that again
That was my first instinct but here I’m saying that sheffler turns it around with the putter this week added to the fact that he’s changed what he changed the putter uh he’s new SP a mallet now yeah yeah I think he’s gonna simplify his life
With the putting and I think he’s G to smash this week okay so interesting so um should we do a a friendly um Rory vers Sheffer but I get plus 110 you get plus 110 that’s what the odds are Rory’s plus 110 against Chef oh
So you want you want what you want true Vegas Market I want a true Vegas Market but I want the you to be the bookie all four days yep full tournament full tournament full tournament um if you um my 100 110 to my 100 right yeah let’s just make it simple
And do that I take Rory you get Scotty you win I give you a 100 I win you give me 110 both yeah okay um Casino takes 10% juice sorry okay and then so the then the the other question I would ask you um we’ll Zoom through this because
We already talked a ton about Min Wood Lee and and reference some players in the sevens but who’s your favorite in the nines man I mean this is such a fascinating range right so so in this in this in this week I said high range uh
9 I said 9.8 and up right so who in that range is going to be the one2 uh for me sheffler and probably K I think Klay I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt that he was sick at Riviera but he should have won that tournament
And I think that he’ll probably come in the same actually I think he’ll come in lower than havland I think people still love playing hland um Klay or havin you’re saying I’m saying Klay comes in in that range with the Xander couters Victor has his own range the 98 plus
Range it’s going to go I think Klay will be the best ownership and I think he’s the best onea to sheffler agree with you uh I have Klay right now 14 and havin 18 does that sound right right I think Klay will be lower hin could be higher but I
Think you’re I think you’re zoning in yeah yeah um what do you think you like you like can’t lay I I always like can’t lay as RPS as RPS Subs know um it’s a tricky range um and I just posted my first ownership run through in the
Discord it it is outside of H more Cola JT which are the leverage the ownership gap between spe Oar Xander havin Klay it I have all those guys right now between 14 and 19 that could change somebody could emerge I don’t really believe the leig ownership um I I actually thought
Based on what I was hearing and seeing on Twitter that ludvig would be pretty chalky um and I my first run through had him at 18 which is still you know not sneaking up on anybody but um I wonder if that ludvig number gets he would be my guess
To be the highest St in the nines uh LG um no I I I you think Xander more than ludig um no in the nines so I don’t have H put I put Xander in a in a in the sort of the top tier higher range and then I
Dropped down to but include the nines I did the eight sevens to like nine sevens um I think Sam Burns is going to be the highest I so I kind of agree with you like I have Burns at 17% right now and there’s a lot of burns love he’s like 22
To1 in the betting markets he’s got like four top 10 finishes in a row he hasn’t been great at this golf course right but I think people are very much in on burns this week I I am a little bit less so I got to admit I am too back on Florida
Though back on Bermuda one in Florida um and the thing about this golf course is and tiger winning eight times should speak to this is that um conservative golf wins here right and tiger is a very conservative golfer um to me havin is not Fowler never had a good success here
Not a conservative golfer right yeah um Oar big aggressive young um great driver great I think he’s fantastic right yeah um I think the one guy that’s going to be I mean Cameron young can be really really frustrating I think he’s pretty aggressive C Colin morawa is a [ __ ] steal I was gonna
Say that so my next question was of this leverageable tier because I think zotus I have at 19% High I have Cameron young at 20% people are in on camer young at this golf course so of this H H morawa JT tier yeah there’s a lot of
Leverage there um and I was gonna ask you who your favorite is of H Mo colge JT and I was gonna say that I mine is morawa of that group although I understand the hom argument I understand the JT argument is morawa your favorite of that group too I mean listen I’m a
Huge morawa huge hom fan man again conservative golfer 2 um knows how to hit the right spots and when to hit the right spots on the green good at beill yeah good at Bay Hill if it’s US Open it’s a plus four it’s a a minus four win
H is the guy on really long courses where you have to play conservative he’s the guy you want the problem with hom recently and Keith Stewart pointed this out he’s got a young kid I think uh he looks frustrated I don’t know if that’s changed that can change week to week it
Can change hour to hour it can change day to day um I think homeor how is a is a is a honey hole right there those two guys uh Thomas Tom I think someone died in my kitchen someone literally just died are you okay um Thomas no no no not right
Now um okay so real quick uh favorite play play in the eights okay so my range I did 77 to 87 but it’ll fine yeah okay it’ll Encompass the eights um I think that Jason day was the biggest withdraw most punishing withdraw ever a few years ago when he was super
Chalk uh ton of course history here uh great putter great off the tea um sometimes in Pre in previous years a decent iron player he withdrew and went to Disney and it killed everyone I I think there’s some I think there’s some PTSD from that uh I’m not saying I eliminate
Day he’s gonna I think he’s going to be one of the higher owned if not the highest own this range um I don’t want to play him in the wind uh Matthew pavon is a very good approach player if you look at his stats
Not a ton I like here but who’s going to play matama right I like it 84 I have him at 9.5% um which is pretty damn good and if you carry it down to 77 Cory Connor for sure love Cory Connors Cory Connors will get some ownership but I think that’s
What I’m gonna eat uh Chris Kirk I have pretty high too in terms of ownership as well you got to remember it’s like a with such a smaller field like I’m looking at the high sevens and low Eights I have Pavone at 14 Chris Kirk at
17 um Cory Conor’s at 145 then what the hell do we do with Jake knp at 15% 7.6 Jake knp what has Jake knap done wrong nothing nothing I mean he was I was talking about this on the podcast I just did um where it’s just like this guy
Just came out of no and you know the narrative on nap was like 5% at the cognizant okay coming off a win and uh nearly wins again and nearly wins again um jnap bothers Natalie I could see him like not being her vibe although I heard I will say
This maybe this is a flex I’m like way low you’re W you won flex and that was doing podcast Sunday in the next five minutes I have to get like let’s make let’s make the under better sweat let’s go okay um I was playing golf at my Club
In La Flex with a guy who played um uh his son played college golf with nap at UCLA and you know he was telling me this nap guy was a absolute stud at UCLA and he kind of lost it in his 20s and always had this talent but was just
Grinding away corn fairy tour mini tours like he he never could put it all together at the right time but then when it then when it clicked um clearly I mean it’s it’s it’s clect yeah she hates I guess she doesn’t like would she call
Me the unreformed fat boy when I had a you know um Natalie will hate him even more he’s sponsored by a vape company yeah did you see that you vape don’t you I do it’s it’s um it’s I’m not proud of it but I do everything else in my life is very
Healthy so it’s my one it’s my one flaw but um she’s outside that window one day we P up but but um she I’m so out the second she got she heard he was sponsored by Vape company I think I thought she she was out on you for
Vaping she’s out on both yeah okay he’s nap is sponsored by Coastal clouds I don’t even know what is Coastal clouds I think it’s one of the big Vape juice companies where you get the big ones and blow the giant clouds of smoke ay barnrat ones yeah yeah the AY barnrat
Ones um anyway uh I I’m gonna play Benny on instead of jakeen that’ss you got the you got the Benny on Whisperer yeah I have my friend who’s a good Ben on buddy flax trying to get to Seven um he’s that’s four yeah he’s telling me that benan you play benan and
Bermuda and Benny on is very very close Okay benan is close close close so I’m benan 7.6 I can definitively tell you I will be there do you say Ben play Benny on on Bermuda or yes in Bermuda um on Bermuda okay I thought you meant the actual country
Of speaking of which Puerto Rico quickly uh burger and the two kid Chan and Sh Chan Kim is a [ __ ] star yeah yeah um all right this range 7 seven seven let’s say um 66 to 76 so then this incorporates the minw Le in fact you could probably tear him down a little
Bit into the stone Min range but um this has a lot to like again every week week to week hogi one of the best iron players on tour uh sub 10% owned what what has he done wrong over this last stretch to make you say that an iron
Heavy approach heavy course that Tom hogi is not a Play I Will I believe in Jagger again uh I would believe in Banda Hut again again great iron player good around the green good putter win player South African um Shane Lowry he’s he’s still he’s still six not not great course history
But he’s in that range too almost won last week again he backs off he he teases you a little bit and then he pulls away that didn’t sound great um that didn’t sound great this is after hours Natalie I’m sorry this is the only fans version we’re an we’re almost after the
First hour um once we get past 45 minutes 45 minutes then you get the fun stuff yeah the wheel starts to come rps5 uh but I again hadwin long iron player Florida winner valpar will always be always go into history as one of my favorite plays if you win the vpar
That’s why Casey is one of my favorite players of all time uh hadwin great long iron player good par great part three player reminds me of Alman good Putter and then tell me why I should not play Cameron Davis because I’m going to do it
Just tell me Andrew tell me tell me why I should pull out of Cam Davis yeah I love D I like my numbers on D this week are all over the map I mean he has the he has the elite driving skill that you would want on this golf
Course yes uh he also dominates par fives is a good long iron player why don’t my number Aussie why don’t my numbers like um he just stinks I think is stinks yeah he stinks um you know the funny thing is your hand looks gigantic look at it a circus hand it’s a sunlight
Um a guy that elephant disease a guy a guy a guy we’re wrapping up here a guy could win the vpar um and like be on his deathbed a week later and Wy would be like Elite play the best play in the six in the low
Sixes is valbar winner in a rad State Taylor Moore how have we not talked about it you’ve been you’ve been you have been poisoned by Sol me and sa have been talking about Taylor Moore all week what’s Taylor Mo’s price you 66 he’s 63 okay that’s okay that’s the
Stoneman range right I’ll be playing web Simpson in that range so it’s okay I’ve got a problem oh my God you got to give up the web I don’t know I don’t mind Taylor Mor 63 I mind him in the range where I need him to beat hogies
Uh Bez Kitty Yama Kitty Yama last year’s winner 73 kittama sub 10% people have lost their [ __ ] minds yeah so go play your mines I’m off minle now you know what interesting so the prosecution yeah the prosecution looks like they snuck that one out Kobe lost
Another one um no I can guarantee I haven’t asked him yet um that’s my by the way yeah Kobe is probably an time leag because he he plays very contrarian um okay last question winner winner of API you’re going Chef okay I’m if you want sorry if you want a
Different answer I’m goingon to say Klay okay I like that I think klay’s a sharp play this week um I’m GNA go with hland I’m GNA go with havland why do you like havland why do you I mean he’s been um well I got down this rabbit hole
About him on a thick rough courses like he um he loves the thick rough he does love the thick rough his chipping technique out of thick rough I think it’s a little bit more manageable you look at all his best short game performances they’re at Olympia Fields and Oak Hill
And Lac and TPC Southwind and um East Lake all those thicker rough Bermuda courses mirfield mirfield Village um and he’s been he did this Claude Harmon interview um where he was talking about things starting to come together for him uh he’s played well at this course in
The past so I think he’s a good play that’s the one thing that’s the one thing that cannot be understated enough it’s a treacherous very punitive Bermuda ruff M um and even on the par five six that around the lake par five yeah it can give you a lot of trouble and when
There’s water and there’s wind and there’s rough and you’re not a BEAST’s your winner Hal’s my winner we gotta go bring in tank where’s tank seeing the Rim Yeah T Natalie wants the dog she’s got that dog in her don’t you think she suggested this Arnold Palmer’s a good dog
Name is a good dog name don’t you think yeah do you have a dog I don’t have one in La she has one I have a family dog in New York but I don’t have one in La is tank in the building uh no if tank was in the
Building I’d bring her up here but she’s not in the building right now home home with home with the kiddos and and wife yeah yeah yeah that’s where she okay all right we’ll do uh what’s the plan for Wednesday you got to tell me are we
Doing something with Keith at at 3 pm or noon or people really love the Kobe show do we wanna do we want to like pick and choose our spots with that one yeah it’s either going to be three o’clock with us okay and Keith or just us Keith Keith I
Never like to use too much of his time because he’s doing so much content for everyone yeah if Keith ever says hey I’d love to come on a show or let’s do something we’re on so that’s why it’s sort of inlex um you and Kobe at eight I think
That’s a good show can we bring Kyle on to this week as well just because Hy ma in the chat right now Huey ma as you know him in the Discord oh as he done has he done live stuff before Kyle’s been on my podcast a ton before he knows
Kyle Kyle’s really good does he make guy does he even makeup guy yeah yeah he does he’s got all the stops he’s got a mic I could send him a mic too but yeah so we’ll do 800m then for the subs with Natalie and Wy and Kobe yeah
Natal Natalie and me are just gonna do a show we G talk about you the entire time coming up next on H rum Pier Sports podcast Network tell me about Andy Natalie Wy and tank well we got two live viewers wow Natalie Natalie Wy and T okay all right
Wy I’ll see you Tom we’ll talk about it some more we’ll figure out tomorrow I got to go check on these Rumer guys to make sure they’re alive okay later I take a stick in there just poke bodies yeah clown what what did you do Andy Andy just left before I did the
Outro so I’m just gonna sit here and complain about him the entire time yes the one thing who said clown makeup ghost champ as always Kyle he just left um yeah the biggest thing is the iuga iuga clown car that we have in the Discord for all the players that
Absolutely destroy us Eric Cole last week get in the car get in a clown car plenty of seats auga I cannot believe I cannot believe that Andrew La just dipped this is the point where Natalie should come on he need to get his Vape In
3 Comments
Wiley and lack LEGENDS
Great show guys. I’m guessing the 1st body poked with a stick is DCs
Insightful and entertaining!