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Good evening ladies and gentlemen welcome to calls calls this is the 2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational DFS tactic show we have everything you need to finalize and optimize your lineups for the next uh signature event on the PJ tour the most up to the second forecast per winf finder the most
Upto-date ownership projections all of that good stuff that you need to win this week uh so we have a lot lot to cover don’t want to waste any time let’s get straight into it all statistics provided tonight and every night are from fantasy national.com it is the best
Golf Analytics tool out there for your money it’s going to make you a much smarter golf Gambler and a much better golf DFS player go check out fantasy national.com it is well worth your investment in the description to the video there are links to all the social
Media first off my ex and Instagram where I posted research earlier this week for both the Arnold Palmer and the Puerto Ric Rico open so if you want to see the weekly research that I do uh on the PJ tour they give me a follow at
Your preferred social media site uh X or Instagram X is also where I place my betting cards and my top player usage in the DFS contest that I play that’ll come out uh after the show this evening for both the Arnold Palmer and the Puerto
Rico open so if you want to see that give me a follow over at X as well and then lastly for social media gab’s handle is in the description he writes a very good article called The Fringe uh and if you are a subscriber to his article you’re already going to know
That you’re able to join us in his substack chat uh after calls calls in the DFS tactics show every Wednesday as we continue the DFS talk over in his substack chat he is gracious enough to host me over there and we continue the DFS talk uh as we finalize our lineups
And get prepared for the week uh so go show gab some support follow him over over on social media and subscribe to that AR Le again it is free to do by the way and you’re going to be able to join us in his substack chat lastly we are
Live Chat is open want to hear from you all in addition to the poll question which I’ve got typed up ready to go I want to hear who your winner for the Arnold Palmer is who are you focused on this week who’s your favorite player um
To play in DFS who are you fading away from pivoting to all that good stuff so let’s figure out our strategies and our tactics for the 2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational and we’re going to start with the updated windfinder forecast before that very quickly uh I’ll I’ll share the poll question when
There are two tournaments in a week how much attention do you pay to the alternate event so perhaps um not directly uh related to the Arnold Palmer uh but I am curious from uh the community Community uh how much attention do you pay to the alternate field event uh Whenever there are two
Tournaments in a week um four options a lot decent amount very little or there’s another tournament so would love to hear um the community’s input on that um if you are unaware I do um a full show for every alternate event those are on Tuesday nights so that is out live now
From last night but we are here for the Arnold Palmer Invitational and the updated forecast looks pretty decent for Thursday and Friday you see Thursday very very little wind which is a little bit of a surprise uh now I would expect the wind to kind of pick pick up in the
Afternoon it generally does here but at least per the forecast I do not see too too much uh wind here in the forecast here at windfinder for tomorrow now Friday’s a different matter Friday looks very Gusty in the morning perhaps a little bit of rain in the afternoon uh
But the wind does look like it uh falls off in the afternoon so last week I was incorrect at the cognizant that that turned out there turned out to be a a decent Little Wave Advantage uh per um what we were talking about last night with the uh
Forecast again this week I would not pay too much attention or at least I’m not going to factor in too much of an advantage uh on either half of the draw um especially since this is a uh limited field event and a limited cut event um
Most of the players are going to make uh the cut um so I don’t see too much of an advantage I would not argue with you if you wanted to to say that the players who are playing late on Friday have the best Advantage um especially since Thursday looks pretty darn
Even and Friday they are definitely getting the better half at least per the forecast but I still think that the wind will probably pick up a little bit more in the afternoon than what is uh expected or or at least forecasted here now if we zoom out and take a look at
The weekend Saturday and Sunday look like uh Havoc um Bay Hill is traditionally tough with the wind picking up as it is projected on Saturday and Sunday it really looks like the uh the weekend is going to play extremely difficult but for our intents and purposes trying to get six to six
Through for the cut I would not um favor any particular half of the draw might use is a tiebreaker I would not argue if you wanted to say that the last bit of the Friday afternoon uh portion of the tea times had the best of it I wouldn’t argue with
You on that I’m just not going to factor it in too much in my decision- making so with that we’re going to move to Fantasy National and the um players this week we’re going to do a quick review apologies let me unstar these players as I was gathering ownership
Projections um basically up to the last minute for you um so let me unstar these for you and that should be it I need to add the moderate and windy filter for this week now it looks like the players in the field this week have enough rounds to make this statistically
Significant except for maybe Pavone valami and Dunlap which they wouldn’t have a lot of rounds if we went to two years anyway so in the last 12 months in moderate and windy conditions your top players in the wind have been Scotty sheffler Victor Patrick cley Denny McCarthy Xander wendam Clark Justin Rose
Rory Ricky Fowler and Cory Connors the other end of the spectrum players have not been good in the wind in the field this week at the API Tom hogi Sheamus power EVR again a little surprising considering he’s generally pretty good in the wind but at least in the last 36
Rounds uh my guess is it’s this moderate that has caused him to Crater uh but generally he’s pretty good in the wind so be be aware of that um web Simpson Tom Kim Mackenzie Hughes Justin low will alatus Kurt kyama Jake knp so on down in
That order so there’s a look at your top and bottom or best and worst wind performers because of the wind that is forecasted especially throughout the weekend I am very very confident this is going to play difficult um so your top players when rounds are difficult relative to
Par in the past either 12 months or 36 rounds Scotty Rory Victor hin wendham Clark Tommy Fleetwood Patrick cley Xander Jordan spe Ricky Fowler and minw Le are your top 10 in that regard the other end of the spectrum Tom hogy web Simpson Justin Thomas McKenzie Hughes Grayson Murray Nick Dunlap Sheamus power
Luke list Lee Hodges Adams Vincent and so on those are your bottom or worst performers when rounds are difficult we could look at long course as well but we’ve we’ve done that throughout the week um and we’ve got a lot to cover uh mixed condition model and and ownerships and
Whatnot so let’s go ahead and just go straight to the mixed condition model that I have made for the Arnold Palmer this week we’re going to start with 15% in off the te now I did use the scoring uh or difficult scoring relative to par filter uh you could have used long
Courses um maybe difficult Fairways toit hit uh but I just chose to go with the difficult relative to par because I feel like this is going to play a lot like a major it typically does uh and so I wanted to see who was the best off the
Tea in those situations uh that way they are not taking themselves out of the hole immediately since there is some uh water uh in play off the tea not as much as at the cognizant last week but there is still water in play so you’re going to have to be accurate distance does
Help help but it’s a lot about the accuracy so 15% in off the tea when it’s difficult 15% in Strokes get approach I’ve talked about it all week I just think I I I think of Bill I think of ball striking around the green will matter we’ll talk
About that here in a second but I just I just think about ball striking a lot so 15% in Strokes G approach 5% and around the green and I did use the long rough filter I know it wasn’t great in last Year’s mixed condition model but Bay
Hill is notorious for its for its long rough especially uh if you are um Wayward off the tea and uh what causes you to miss some greens or if you’re missing greens but you’re going to miss greens they are difficult to hit here you’re going to have to be pretty good
Around the green to get around here with Bay Hill and Scramble for your pars so I wanted to run it back and see if last year was just a little bit of a of an outlier or a bit misleading so 5% in around the green look you could use difficult to
Par here you could just use 5% in straight up around the green wouldn’t um blame you for that but I did want to see uh with the long rough since Bay Hill is notorious for how long it’s rough is 5% on Tiff Eagle Bermuda now I made a
Pretty strong point of this uh Monday night that if players had played the cognizant they were generally really good putting or at least in Prior years if they had played the Honda played at PGA National and then played Bay Hill since both of those courses are Tiff Eagle pure Tiff Eagle generally speaking
If they putt well at um the Honda they would come back and they would win or at least your former champions of Bay Hill had putt extremely well if they played at Honda so that’s what that’s why I’m factoring in putting I only have at 5%
Because I am going back all all the way to 2 years not just the recency bias of the cognizant but all um you know all rounds on Tiff Eagle in the past two years so that’s why it’s only at 5% but I would give a pretty decent boost to
The players that putt extremely well at the cognizant think of Eric Van royan Austin ekro Matt Fitzpatrick Russell Henley put Daylights out at the cognizant uh there are plenty of others uh and I I showed you that on Monday night so if you’re uh interested in that go check out uh that
Information um after the show tonight so 5% in putting on Tiff Eagle Bermuda uh and that’s what the filter is just the multiple courses that have Tiff Eagle Bermuda 10% in good drives gained again when scoring is difficult uh we know bay heill is generally difficult I think
It’s going to be very difficult especially over the weekend so I want to see the players that are finding the Fairway or um aren’t so Wayward or good enough or are good enough From the Rough that they can still hit these greens in regulation so that’s what a good drive
Gained is to finded in fantasy National 5% in birdies gained when it’s difficult 5% in Bogey’s avoided when it’s difficult I really thought I was going to um you know put the bogey avoidance at 10% like we talked about Monday night um but as I looked at it um the bogey
Avoidance has has diminished in its importance the past four to 5 years so we’re going to take an equal look at birdies and Bogies gained and avoided uh and see what happens this year um these were clearly the last bits of the mixed condition model um so I didn’t want to
Put a whole lot of of emphasis into them so 5% in each and those rounding out the mixed condition model 200 plus proximity that is the range of irons that you just have to be good at here at Bay Hill with the par fives which you have to take
Advantage of all of them are over or three of the four are over 550 yards so if the players are attacking those par fives and two they’re going to be approaching 200 plus uh you’ve got several longer par fours as well so 200 plus is a major factor around Bay Hill
10% in Par 3 is 200 to 225 I’ve talked all week how stubborn I am that I believe this is the range of par 3es that really needs to narrowly be focused so 10% there 10% in all of par fours didn’t feel comfortable splitting out a particular range and then 10% in the
Pari measur measuring 550 to 600 again three of the four par FS measured to that length on the scorecard so there’s a look at the mixed condition model that I have made for the API this week um look if around the green or putting happens to be more important uh perhaps
Distance if distance matters quite a bit um I don’t have anything um directly related to distance other than just off the te I am more focused on the accuracy um aspect this week um if birdies or Bogies uh matter more if there’s a particular range of par 4
But um those are where I could be weak uh in terms of the bias to in my mixed condition model uh but feel feel pretty strongly again I’ve just been focused on the ball striking and the accuracy this week so with that we’re going to go
Ahead and go to Microsoft XL the reveal of my rankings go as such Patrick kentley actually my number one player this week Rory number two Scotty Sheffer third cam young and Victor hin four uh fourth and fifth rounding out the top five Jordan spe Tommy Fleetwood Matt
Fitzpatrick Keegan and Max H round out my top 10 and I mentioned this quite a bit on Monday or at least at the end of the show Monday you look at all of these extremely low course values up here in my top 10 Bay Hill is one of the most predictive courses for
Success year-over-year on the PJ tour uh talked about this quite a bit in the Daya dive show at the end of the Daya dive show showing you the prior winners of Bay Hill and how much success they had had leading into the turn uh to their Championship win so for uh for or
As a a reminder for returning viewers for your information if you’re a new viewer my rankings go on three criteria the f&c rank which is a pure analytics uh ranking based on the mixed condition model we just talked about all of the metrics and filters uh in that model fgc
Will split out a ranking my course value which is um an attempt at giving a player a numerical value on how well they have played that course in the past five years the lower the number the better and of course we are playing DFS so projected ownership and this is per
Fantasy National projected ownership also factors in to my rankings so with that uh hey P good evening thanks for jumping in chat it’s good to see you two nights in a row um glad to see you for the Puerto Rico and now for the main event if you will for the week the
Arnold Palmer where the majority of um the money in the contests are but good to see you in chat this evening uh much appreciated um gab was uh or is kind enough to share with me his um source of uh ownership so I have that off to the
Side over here as well so we have two sources of um ownerships that we can look at um but as far as my rankings look my top 10 again there’s no surprise I have an extreme amount of weight here in this course value of the the um Quality that
A player has played Bill in the past 5 years uh it’s it’s a bigger weight than what it normally is so lot of emphasis here no real surprise I don’t think uh Jordan spe only played beill twice but it’s been very good as you see perhaps a
Little surprising or at least I was a little a little surprised seeing Klay number one but considering you are pretty darn close to 10% per fantasy National in uniqueness and you’re closer to 15% uniqueness per gab Source you’re getting a lot of ownership discount uh on Patrick Canley so that’s why he is
Leapfrogging Scotty and Rory in My rankings because you see by fantasy National and by at least by the Numbers purely he’s still fourth still very strong he’s only played Bill once but he did top five it last year nothing to the levels of sustained success like Rory and Scotty have um year-over-year but
Kley has played it once played it well and um with all that ownership discount uh that’s why he is rising Cameron young played bahill very well as uh as well Victor havin uh I’m a little surprised Fitzpatrick’s as low as he is he was only 20
24th by the Numbers uh the irons have not been the greatest and then he is second to last in this field 68th out of 69 in par fours so that’s what’s really hurting him dropping him down to 24th uh by the Numbers eighth for me cuz
He’s been fantastic at Bay Hill uh so enough of my rankings no again no real shock on who is in the top 10 you can always argue the ordering but let’s sort on the price board figure out where our fellow contestants are going in these various price ranges and see where we
Can maneuver around them so in the five digits in the 10ks we have three players Scotty at 113 Rory at 106 and Patrick kley at 10,000 even as we talked about Patrick hlay is about 10 to 15% projected uniqueness off of Rory and Scotty um all three of these you know
One two three in my rankings now fantasy National has uh these players you know 22% or so per Gabe Source they’re much closer to 30% I am going to lean towards the 30% I just think that U most of our fellow contestants are choosing between and
Rory which means as much as uh as unpopular of a player as Patrick kley is I’m probably going to make kley number one like my rankings because of the uniqueness Factor when we looked at performance in the wind total performance in the win total performance when it’s difficult he was top 10 in
Both of those regards as well uh he’s fourth in uh the pure analytic numbers as well he’s fine off the he’s not going to take himself out of the hole he’s he’s a grinder gets his pars and pars are good scores around Bay Hill he does struggle
A little bit with his 200 plus proximity which is really lagging behind the other two but the other two have their flaws as well uh you see Scotty Sheffer is one of the worst players in this field specifically at these very long par 3es 200 to 225 par 3es um Rory has been
Really bad on Tiffy Bermuda he lost three and a half Strokes last week at the cognizant alone so uh each of these three players has um has some has some red statistics or something that is uh that is not good for them based on the cheaper price and the amount of
Uniqueness now if it was only 5% uniqueness off of the other two probably would feel a little bit different but going 10 to 15% uniqueness from Patrick Klay to the other two I’m going to make Patrick kley my number one player uh I just give me the uniqueness factor and
I’m still very confident that he’s going to play well this week he’s only played it one time yes but it was very good last year I will make Scotty number two um yes the part 3es could be an issue but for as bad of uh as his putter has
Been he’s actually been accept on Tiff Eagle Bermuda whereas Rory you saw I mean yes he was in contention last week but losing three and a half Strokes that is that’s a massive amount and he’s generally not good on that surface anyway so when you have two equally strong ball Strikers first
And second off the te first and and Rory’s Rory’s irons are you know top 30 they’re much better than this um when you have two pretty equal ball Strikers give me the guy that’s acceptable putting on this surface uh as opposed to continuously showing that he’s really
Really bad on it so I’ll make Sheffer second and I’ll make Rory third in the 10ks but I I’m still going to use all three of these but I am going to use the most of Patrick kley based off of the amount of uniqueness you’re gaining on your fellow contestants good evening
Darnell thanks for jumping in chat much appreciated hopefully um we are ready to turn our luck around for the main event this week the Arnold Palmer it’s good to see you this evening so that’s the way I see the 10ks let’s go to the nines um
All of these players inside the top 20 in my rankings as well I’m actually the lowest on col morawa because he has generally not played the Arnold Palmer Invitational well at all he does have a top 10 but he’s got a miscut and last year he missed the cut last year at the
Arnold Palmer Invitational he’s also got a a like a 61st or maybe 63rd Place finish a few years back he generally has not played the Arnold Palmer very well so this is an an example of do you want to trust the analytics or do you want to trust the prior course performance I’m
Going to go with the prior course performance uh cuz everything analytically says he should be good number one in good drives gain top five in irons uh off the team based on the accuracy but I’m going to go with the fact that he has just generally not
Played well here and I’m going to be out on Colin morawa so if he plays while I’ll lose but just be aware he has been pretty darn bad in two of the three years that he’s played Bay Hill other places here in the 10ks havin is going to be extremely
Chalky but for a good reason he’s played very well here um 20% 20 and a half% for gab Source 18% here so you’re looking you know at probably the third maybe the fourth most owned player on the docket this week um that’s fine um probably probably a good play uh he is
He has been bad on the longer par fivs I don’t know how much I want to put into that and the around the green is getting better so just be aware he is very very uh popular this week but part going to kley allows me to use a player like
Hland since I am gaining so much uniqueness off of the other two and I can squeeze it in price-wise easier as well Xander kind of lukewarm on Xander um he’s been fairly mediocre here the off the te can can be a drag number two in irons behind only
Scotty uh very accurate uh even if he is in the rough he generally finds a way to hit the greens uh pretty good you know decent enough putter on this surface I’m just lukewarm on Xander 19% per gab Source 17 A2 here it’s a lot of ownership I think
I’m willing to go other places and since he is so closely projected owned to Victor havland I’m just going to go with hland I’m much more confident in havland around Bay Hill than I am Xander Oar probably going to be good I would think considering his Elite driving but what I
Talk about a lot with ludc obar generally speaking he has played his best when it’s easy and beill is not easy that’s why his off the te game is showing as middling considering it is factoring in you know difficult to par good drives gained difficult to par not
Very good now number five or top five in the long par three is number one on par four so a lot going for him but this it feels like it would be a a good fit for lud Vic obar just be aware that um until he sustain has sustained success in difficult
Tournaments I’m going to be a little bit cautious and be a little bit lower on Oar spe fine I guess like he never rate generally rates out well so the fact that he’s sixth I should be paying a lot more attention to like the irons just
Kind of scare me the 200 plus is really bad but he is the number one player on the long par fives number three and around the green um he’s played exceptionally well here so it’s probably a good play I just I can’t get excited for a Jordan spe but
The fact that he is so highly rated in my rankings I probably should take more notice Burns it’s all about the putter for Sam Burns he’s number two on this surface behind Eric Cole Bermuda burns like we talked about Bermuda Billy last week it’s Bermuda Burns so you always got to
Factor him in that regard but he can get extremely wward Homa is going to be pretty good this is one of the plays in the 9ks that I really really like if I’m not around morawa if I’m not as high on Xander I’ll be using a lot of Max Homa quite a bit
Yes he didn’t R out particularly well um kind of the inverse of morawa analytically morawa is great but it’s not played well here analytically H’s fine 22nd out of 70 it’s it’s good it’s not Elite but H’s been lights out here at Bay Hill couple of top 10
Another top 20 or two so a lot to like with with Max hom I’ll be using him quite a bit I’m on the fence with JT uh I know Darnell you have jokingly said that uh that uh he is never again for you I’m on the fence with it um he’s been okay
Here but he’s got some some poor statistics for sure you cannot doubt uh you cannot argue Justin Thomas’s ability to scramble so that’s something you need to to be aware of but you got plenty of reasons to fading so in the 9ks look I know he’s going to
Be extremely chalky I’m going to be able to justify hin um oh I know it wasn’t a joke for you um it was he he has been uh he has been the cause of your demise a couple of times here recently um I’ll be using a lot of
Havind um only because I’m going to be using a lot of C late and that’s where I’m going to gain my uniqueness um from from others in you know our fellow contestants so I will be using a lot of havin this is some chalk I’ll eat um spe should I’m probably
Going to be using more spe than I’m comfortable with based on his where he finished in the rankings and how well he’s played here and I will be using quite a bit of Max Homa so if Max Homa or I’ll be overweight on Max Homa I
Should say I’ll be having more than you know just 11% or 12% on maxom so uh you know if hom doesn’t play well I’ll lose conversely if morawa plays well I will lose I’m not going to be using much of morawa I am scared about how uh poor he’s played
Bill uh I’m going to be a lot lower on Xander this week than what the rating or ranking shows here U playing Rory and Sheffer along with um Adam Scott Luke list and cam young uh um you’re going to be pretty darn chalky but I don’t hate
That with the exception of luk list I I don’t like luk list this week but we’ll get into him at the bottom of the sevens um so there’s a look at the nines let’s go to the eights um Z A lot of people are gravitating towards zalot
Taurus okay I guess I mean very good off the tea especially when it’s difficult but you look at some of these metrics and the some of them were when he was injured sure but you know good drives gained an issue not particularly good with these par
Fours has not been very good with this particular style of short game long rough and on Tiff Eagle Bermuda um seeing zot Taurus at 11 and a half per game Source fantasy National um a little bit higher I’m not as high on Wills Al Taurus fantasy Nationals not um high on
Tommy Fleetwood or at least the members there only 10 a half% whereas 177% per gab Source probably going to be okay probably going to be okay much better than what this is showing here is around the green game is is great to Elite even not the best putter on the surface but
Um this is he’s going to be closer to 15% and that’s why I’m just not as excited for Tommy Fleetwood I’ll have some of Tommy Fleetwood um but I’m thinking he’s going to be closer to 15% Cameron young High projected ownership fine you know Elite off the
Team Cory Connors has been price on Yahoo might play Instead Connors has been good here I will say that but not in love with that one either um Camy young Elite off the tea the irons can be an issue and he is bad on this surface although he gained last week at the cognizant so just be aware
Like Victor hin he is not going to be anywhere uh near unique enough you’re going to have to find a lot of uniqueness if you’re going to be using some cam young but probably a decent play he’s also somebody that generally doesn’t rate out well so the fact that is fourth
Uh I don’t know I love Matt Fitzpatrick again this week I know he did he was t21 or something last week that doesn’t scare me off at all the irons are fine he’s not going to take himself out of the hole the par fors could be an issue
Sure but his ability to scramble and just get pars when pars are good scores you want to play Matt Fitzpatrick and pars are really really good scorers around Bay Hill I love me some Matt Fitzpatrick 16% per fantasy National 15 and a half per gab sore so he’s not
Nearly as unique as I would like him to be I don’t care this is more chalk I’ll eat um you’re going to see Matt Fitzpatrick quite a bit on social media later tonight with my betting card and with my top player usage I just love everything about mat Fitzpatrick he’s
Been fantastic here somebody who has not been fantastic here is Clark want no part of Windam Clark I know it conceptually probably feels like a good Windam Clark course uh 15th analytically but he’s been really really bad here um just don’t want any part of it hadi’s
Been okay but we saw that um you know Sunday night in the early look file like Hadi struggles with the putter here so scors has crazy history when it comes to Prior play yes that is why um course value is extremely weighted this week extremely weighted
And that’s why I don’t want any part of Windham Clark uh that’s why I’m not particularly excited for Luke list and I meant while I mention why mention Connors has at least played well here um hideki’s been fine but I do worry about the putter here this does not feel like
A good Tom Kim Tom Kim fit Jay day’s been very good here as well but last in the field in irons I mean dead last in the field with irons um I actually like sahit Gala and yes this course value is hideous he did top 15 last year sahit
Gala did top 15 last year so this number he’s only played it twice so his first year was really really bad which you you would expect I I think sahala is pretty sneaky this week so I’m going to be overweight on seah tagala uh LC list missed his last two
Cuts before very good if you look at his Cuts missed 13 Strokes putting don’t see that happening again maybe not to that amount but luk Liss is just a bad putter you know if it was somebody even you know field average week in and week out sure but Luke list
Is a is notoriously one of the worst Putters on tour so it doesn’t surprise me we’ll talk about him in the low sevens um I’m just I’m just not there that there’s more than just the putter that scares me I’ll put it that way but the
Putter is bad enough um so in the 8ks again fleetwood’s fine I just think he’s going to be more than 10 and a half percent he’s probably going to be closer to 15 fleetwood’s fine I absolutely love Fitzpatrick again this week so I’m going to use him Cameron Young’s fine he’s
Just not unique at all um jday is is interesting because of the elite cour or prior course history uh I’m going to use tagala it is quite speculative uh considering uh the poor course history but again he did top 15 this last year so I’m gonna use some
Cagala I was really high on sunjay he did not play well last week so I’m I’m much more cautious about sunjay but you see that course value he’s been exceptional here as well so if you’re really wanting to get unique really take a strong look at sunj and I will casually mention Russell
Henley um even though he doesn’t rate out very high um he is supposedly the worst putter on this surface he gained like five Strokes last week at the cognizant so he at least does have the uh Spike ability to putt um in the upper sevens no thank you on
Posting this I always Target posting when it’s shorter and it’s easy last week it was short so it it kind of fit this is not short it is not easy not easy you see the course value he has not played well at Bay Hill no thanks on JT
Poston again talking about Cy Connors I mean he just missed my top 10 he’s been pretty darn good here all based on the accuracy the off the tea when it’s difficult generally accurate top five and 200 plus irons so I mean you really like that I just I just worry about his short
Game his around the green game is really bad and yes while he did make the cut last week he was really bad over the weekend and finished somewhere I think around 50th I like Connor’s more than Luke list but I’m not in love and and 177% at
Least per fantasy National 12% per game Source if it was 12% I’d be much more um I would stomach Conor is much more at 12% 177% kind no not really I’d be much rather play Chris Kirk look at his course value look at how well he has
Played here in the past 14% here only 10% per gab source so at 7,800 I would just much rather play Chris Kirk even though the uh FC rank wasn’t nearly as high on Kirk six in irons he’s also really darn good on this surface par fors are fine I I would much
Rather play Chris Kirk in that regard how do I feel about nap look I was just wrong last week I I’ll admit it U I really thought he would have the winners hangover he played exceptionally well uh it’s hard for me because he’s got so few
Stats he’s getting hurt by the fact that since he’s never played this course this number is kind of arbitrarily High I don’t hate it I do worry about a little bit of fatigue considering he won and then was in contention again last week I do worry a little bit about
Fatigue but I mean Falls right in the middle in this Elite field already in terms of purely by the Numbers 12% per gab Source 14% for Fantasy National so so not as unique as I would like him to be but man he’s he’s in Fuego right now
No doubt about that I actually don’t hate it I like it a lot more than Connor’s in list I I’ll say that if he is minimum price on Yahoo I like him I like him a lot more than Connor’s and list depending on you know price uh moving into the low sevens
Uh always think about Adam scottt I know this course value isn’t all that high but he generally plays Bill pretty darn well you see the off the te when it’s difficult top 15 still in irons top 10 in par fours so take a long look at Adam Scott he’s just not as
Unique as you might think 12 a half for G sour 16% here at Fantasy National okay Keegan getting a lot of love for good reason this is more chalk Al eat in the low sevens uh Keegan’s been fantastic here at Bay Hill Top 10 off the tea top 15 in
Irons the broomstick putter has been working for him he’s very good with his 200 plus irons as well his long irons so I really like Keegan this week but a lot of people do just understand that um you’re going to have to find your uniqueness elsewhere if you’re using Keegan
Bradley um Tony made a very good observation on Harris English that he was popping a whole lot uh in these in the top 10 when we were looking at various metrics across um things on Monday night and you see he’s played pretty well here in the past five years
Harris English only at 10% per gab Source 14% per fantasy National um it’s all about the short game for Harris English the par 3es he’s been very good but second in putting on this surface gosh dang it just off your screen of course second putting ground the greens actually been pretty good too
Takes advantage of the par FS which you have to do here so I don’t I I don’t hate Harris English either I wish he was a little bit more unique but it is what it is with a very small field um Harris English should be good
Um I’m actually going to use quite a bit of Ricky based again solely on the fact that he’s played well here CU you see the analytic numbers uh pretty middling on him he’s just been very he’s been good here in the past five years and he’s very unique so that’s probably
Where I’m going to take a chance I’m not in love with it by any means but it’s it’s a play on the uniqueness and the fact that he’s been good here luk list this is you know again Elite World ball Striker no doubt about it but you see how
Poorly he has played Bay Hill in the past five years not only is the putter really bulky around the green is really bad so if he is having a slightly off iron week it’s going to be really really bad for him he also doesn’t get a lot of birdies when it’s
Difficult and he doesn’t avoid a lot of Bogies when it’s he just generally I know he play I know he won the farmers but that’s why he just doesn’t generally pop in Majors cuz when it’s difficult he he can I don’t know I just I just don’t feel it this week
You’re right he will be unique 9% per fantasy National only 6% per Gabe source so for those three and again I don’t know if Jake knap is minimum priced on Yahoo or not but I would go map Connor’s because of how well he’s played um beay Hill in the past again I
Just I am cautious because he has not played Bay Hill all that well and then moving into the 6ks look there’s really not a lot down here that I want to to recommend to you all um I’m trying to avoid the 6ks as much as possible um Rio maybe because he’s been acceptable
Here but you See’s 60th out of 69 players in terms of the numbers lost uh for nap and kid lost swap oh swapped English and list for nap and kittama I don’t hate it um I mean kitty ama’s got that great course value CU he’s only played it once and he won
Um I don’t I I don’t I I’m not in love with kittama but I don’t hate it I really really do like nap compared to list for that what that’s worth but in here in the sixks there’s just not a lot I want to recommend like again Grio he’s
Been okay here the irons have been bad since his win last year um at the Byron Nelson I mean he’s got a lot of red I mean just deep red statistics so if you’re playing Grio it’s a play on the fact that he’s been acceptable at Bay
Hill in the past Patrick Rogers has also been acceptable at Bay Hill in the past but much like Grio he’s got a lot of things that are deep red so I’m not not in love with that either I’ve been trying to avoid the 6ks as much as possible everyone seems to be
Gravitating to minl Lee look 69th out of 69 players horrible and I mean just horrible course value if it was only one time I’d say okay he you can understand he had a bad week it happens he’s over for two and just horrendous both times here at Bay Hill I understand he’s
Coming off a fantastic week he’s probably a better player now than what he was when he played Bay Hill those past couple of times I don’t want any part of minw Le this is the biggest fade that I can I can recommend uh and if he
Plays well I’ll lose but I’m going to have literally zero minw Le don’t want any part of it Glover or hogy I’m gonna take hogy um Glover while the ball striking has been okay he’s been mediocre is at Bay Hill I just I don’t I don’t like the fit here I
Generally try to look at Glover when it’s uh shorter and easier kind of like JT Poston you see the par fivs which you have to take advantage of here not not particularly strong yes the broom broomstick Putters helped him out quite a bit but he also doesn’t go get
Birdies often when it’s low so I I’ve just got some concerns around Glover I’d much rather go to Tom hogi um of those two just understand Hog’s going to be a little bit more popular at least with fasy national he’s a lot more popular he’s actually only 6 and a half%
% per Gabe source so even if you split the two sitting right around 10% I don’t think that’s horrible you’re getting a a top level iron player and the best 200 plus iron player in that regard and Hog’s not a great putter but he’s at least been even
Decent on this surface so I would go hogy pretty comfortably over Glover of those two but like I said in the 6ks just don’t want I’m trying to avoid this as much as possible it’s another reason why I’m going to kley as opposed to Sheffer and Rory more often I just don’t
Lo like a lot down here van royan would probably be fine but I mean he’s at 10% per gab source and 14 and a half per fantasy National mini 11 and a half per fantasy National projected 25% per gab Source just G no no no no no
No no no and if he plays well you can come back next week and tell me that I’m an F an idiot that’s fine I accept that I’m just willing to play the game theory you’ve got too much to gain on your fellow contestants by not going to minu
Le all right with that that’s how I see the price board and um the where the potential pivots are where our fellow contestants are going in terms of chalk let’s start making some lineups here we’ll start with Tei and then we’ll we’ll we’ll make classic lineups and and figure out how
We can um Skyrocket in our in our big gpps for those who play tiers contest tier one you have Scotty Rory and Klay much like in classic I mean I really think it’s probably Patrick Klay just because these two are going to be so darn chalky I really do think you’re
Gaining a lot of uniqueness in tearers as well with can’t um this price at two when the minim minimum is at is 20 um uh good with all that trap yeah um Taylor Moore we didn’t talk about him too much good with the long irons and very good on the surface putting
But again I just I’m not comfortable with it um in tier one I think I’m going to go with kley it’s really hard to pass Scotty really hard to pass Scotty but I think I’m going to try to find uniqueness in tier one right off the bat
And go with kley tier two havin Xander lud VI Gober Jordan spe Max hom for me I want to I want to take hom and take a lot of the uniqueness as well but because of how much uniqueness I think I gained with kle let’s just go with
Havland in tier two I’m just I’m more confident in hland than I am in hom it’s it’s it’s close I’ll go havin hom is very very well well worthwhile in tier two as well tier three Sam Burns Colin morawa JT wills aloris and cam young do not like tier three at
All uh JT maybe but I think I think it’s probably cam young I just I don’t like Sam Burns I’ve talked about my hesitation with morawa here I I mean I understand why people are gravitating to zot Taurus but so just just give me CAM young in tier
Three I’ll take the chalk I don’t like it but is what it is tier four Tommy Fleetwood whoopsy wrong way Tommy flew Fitzpatrick wiam Clark Hideki Tom Kim J day and sunj clear Matt Fitzpatrick no ifs ANS or butts um I don’t think there’s even a number to it might go
From one to like four I just I’m all about some Matt Fitzpatrick tier five seah Russell Henley Poston Pavone Connors Kirk and Harmon I do like Kirk quite a bit but I think tagala is pretty sneaky I think it’s one of those two if you’re willing to take the chance it’s to
Cuz he’s going to be he’s got the wider range of outcomes I think he has a a decent chance to win this I could also see him shooting 77 84 and just imploding he’s got the widest range of outcomes if you’re comfortable with that risk take tagala I think the safer play
Would be Kirk so I’m going to take tagala cuz I’m trying to hit the Home Run I do not blame you one bit if you take Kirk then tier six we have Ricky bazen hoot luk list ecro Grio Rose and hadwin for me it’s between Ricky and bazen ho both of these
Players have played Bill fairly similarly in the past five years I know CZ rided out better but I I this is just kind of a gut feeling I’m going to go with Ricky in tier six it’s just kind of a gut feeling so This Ti construction goes Klay havland cam young
Fitzpatrick uh tier five is tagala and tier six Ricky all right let’s move to Classic lineups figure out the lineups that our fellow contestants seem to be making and then how we can maneuver around that so um I’m going to start this the the first question basically
Has been Rory or Scotty I’m going to go with Rory both of these players are at the exact same level of ownership per Gabe Source almost 30% literally no difference between them so I’m going to go with Rory only because fantasy National has him slightly more than
Scotty could very easily be Scotty here and then everyone’s going to minwoo at the bottom coming off of his your runner up finish last week I get it I just don’t want any part of it so this is where our fellow contestants are going in these um chalky
Lineups uh looks like Oar could be in this as well at least per fantasy national uh 177% per gab Source but looks like Rory ludvic obar um doubtful that they have enough for Cameron young we can try it I doubt it yeah 7,300 yeah that’ll work because
Here in the lower half of the sevens um Adam Scott could work Keegan Bradley is going to be pretty popular Harris English has been popular now hogi is very popular per fantasy National not so much per gab source so um if we try to combine both of them like Keegan
Bradley is definitely in this he is 14% at both or actually 17% per fantasy National 14% per gab Source leaves them 7200 um not a whole lot in there per gab Source now fantasy National everyone’s going to Tom hogy in that regard so it depends on which source you want to believe fantasy
National has him at 15% gab Source only has it at 6% but even so this is looking like the chalky shell of a lineup um you know whether it’s Rory or Scotty minwu or Eric Van royan Keegan Bradley’s in this you know maybe they come down off of Oar
A little bit down to maybe a Wills Al Taurus cam Young’s getting a lot of attention this is a chalky shell you see 18% that’s gross don’t want any part of that there’s nothing wrong with a lot of these players individually I mean I’ve talked about hogi I love Keegan Bradley
This week cam Young’s fine I like Rory enough but combining them all into the same lineup is going to be is going to spell death uh you’re just not going to be able to separate from the rest of your fellow contestants if they are going uh balanced I’m going to give them Xander
Because I just I’m just not nearly as high on Xander um Adam Scott is in here as well uh try to bottom inal uh Adam Scott at 75 let’s see Jake knap 14 and 12 so Jake knap could absolutely be in this as well uh trying to build them just a you
Know a kind of a balanced lineup here will zorus is what 17 a half per fantasy National only 11 and a half so not as much again this would be like Cameron Young and uh 9,000 is JT so if you want to believe the fantasy National portion it’s it’s
Wills Al tourus there’s a look at perhaps a balanced build chalky build uh going to Keegan and Adam Scott and Jake knap you know hovering in that mid seven area maybe a couple eights and then a high nine Victor Xander oh bear so there’s a look at a couple of chalky
Lineups um that I think will be very popular um types of constructions how are we going to maneuver around that well for me again I’ve been going to Patrick Klay and him by himself is not you know terribly unique 133% fantasy National 14 and a half per gab Source
But again it’s the fact that you’re gaining you know anywhere from 10 to 15 % uniqueness off of the main two and I’m still confident that Patrick kley is going to play well here he might not have the extreme upside that sheffler or Rory does but I don’t see him missing
The cut you know famous last words I don’t see him cratering to a you know a top 40th Place finish I know he’s not popular but he just he should be pretty good and I’ve been backing it up with Victor that’s where I’ve been trying to get gain my
Win equity on on fellow contestants is going kley havin kley ludvig kle spe even Max hom could absolutely fit in this um I would like to try to fit Matt Fitzpatrick in this you’re not going to be able to especially since I don’t like much in the 6ks at all I’ve been trying
To avoid it as much as possible so because of that I have not been able to go to Matt Fitzpatrick as much as I wanted to but I’ve been dooming out at Ricky been doing uh Keegan I know he’s popular but I’m just confident again in Keegan Bradley since he’s played exceptionally
Well here year overy year um let’s see Ben On’s getting some attention as well Chris Kirk would absolutely fit in this um you know Connor’s at 78 I don’t really want any part of you know that’s honest a pretty good shout on Jake knap I hadn’t thought about Jake knap
Darnell but it could work again I do worry a little bit about uh about some fatigue and he’s the fact that he’s never played Bay Hill it didn’t stop Kitty from from winning last year but generally speaking uh it doesn’t go well for firsttime players but those are the kind
Of lineups that I’ve been trying to build like kley hin kley spe like if I if I go more balanced um I’ll go like speed um Fleetwood probably going to be fine Maddie Fitzpatrick who I’m just all about again this week moving on down into the bottom of the eight like sahit
Tagala I think is going to be pretty darn sneaky good this week sunj could be worthwhile based on you know his excellent history here so you’re you’re you’re going on History versus recent form and then again rounding this out how you see fit you know Keegan Jake knap maybe like an Adam
Scott maybe like a Matthew Pavone could be interesting don’t really want any part of SEIU or Brian Harmon again depending on how I’m thinking it’s like it’s either Ricky Maybe Christian bazen hoot but I’m much more comfortable using Ricky then 81 again is like sees but I could go Russell
Henley pretty unique you know that’s a sub 11% lineup there that again a little speculative with tala but I think he is is going to be pretty darn good and all of these players all of these players have been very good in the past at Bay Hill which is an important factor
And don’t forget sahala did top 15 this last year so there’s a look at a couple of the lineups that uh types of lineups that I’ve been building I’ll stick around for a couple minutes if anyone else has any questions um poll question uh looks like um when there are two
Tournaments how much attention do you pay to the alternate uh event uh very little which is understandable considering you know not a lot of the bigger names are there or none of the bigger names are there um and the DFS contests are generally uh pretty weak in
Terms of prize payouts uh clearly for me I’m a degenerate and I’m a a masochist so I’m about all about the statistics so if there was a category above a lot that would be me I pay a a tremendous amount of attention to the alternate field
Event um my one and done for the week I am kind of waffling back and forth but right now I’ve clicked in Matt Fitzpatrick um I am justifying that with saying that this is a signature event because a lot of times I would save a player of Matt Fitzpatrick’s caliber for
A major particularly a US Open or a PGA Championship but um it’s just hard to ignore his previous performance at Bay Hill with this being a you know signature event a very a minimal cut event U pretty confident in Fitzpatrick’s performance so that’s where I’m at right now in terms of one
And done I could maybe see going to speed maybe see going to Klay but right now I’ve got Fitzpatrick clicked in that looks like it’s going to be it for the show tonight I want to thank p and Darnell and Tony for jumping in chat
Much appreciated um uh love what I do uh taking a look at sports statistics um giving you a statisticians uh view of what he sees trying to win help us all win a little bit of money in the process thanks again to you three for jumping in chat and
Participating I always appreciate it and thanks to everyone else out there who Tunes in watches listens supports the channel by liking the videos commenting and subscribing it helps me out a lot when you do that uh so I’m very appreciative of the support for all of the Wagers that you’ve made this week
For the Arnold Palmer Invitational for all the DFS contests you play for the Arnold Palmer Invitational for all of the Wagers and contests you play for the Puerto Rico open for this weekend and every weekend may all your bets be profitable
