Wednesday 21st February 2024 – FREE Horse racing tips – Doncaster, Punchestown & Kempton Park

Today’s staking plan is £9 across 1 bet.
There are 5 selections in total, across 5 races

Results from the previous videos, 18th of February 2024:
Bet: £11
Return: £2.10
Overall Loss: £8.90

Total Horse Racing Statistics for 2024 up until the 18th of February:
Bet – £562
Return – £422.58
Overall Loss – £139.42

Total for February, up until the 18th of February:
Bet – £198.50
Return – £101.28
Overall Loss – £97.22

Total Horse Racing Statistics, since the channel started:
January 9th 2022 – February 1st 2024
Bet – £11,477.70
Return – £14,494.22
Overall Profit – £3,016.12 (+26.28%)

Contact details:
W: https://flatcapcallum.com/
E: info@flatcapcallum.com

Through my channel, I offer free horse racing tips (and occasionally for other sports) primarily focusing on looking for the value in the betting market. This means finding horses that I believe the bookmakers have overlooked and overpriced.

Horse racing tips are provided on 4 regular days a week:
(Wednesday, Thursday, Friday & Saturday)
On the other 3 days of the week, short videos will be uploaded, by exception.
I occasionally will leave selections on non-video days, in the comments of the previous video.

I’m not guaranteeing daily winners; in fact I expect to lose more days than I win! This is all about gaining more on the winning days to outweigh the losses to make profit in the long term.

I aim to run a transparent channel where statistics will be regularly shared, nothing will be over promised and I encourage you to interact through the comments.

Usually, the majority of bets are advised to be placed through Sky bet, as they are the bookmaker usually offering the most each-way places for Horse racing bets, which best suit the style of bets I place
The expected ‘average’ days stake for the channel is £20, but it will vary between £2-£40, depending on the volume and quality of the racing.

Update 06/09/23 – All channel stats are now recorded based on at least 3 major bookies offering the price at the time of video upload and at least 3 major bookies paying the place terms at the time of the race.
(Previously everything was recorded through a real Skybet account, this made channel profits hard to achieve for anyone using alternative bookies, the update hopefully ensures most can match the channel results and many can exceed them)

Horse racing statistics since the channel launched (10th January 2022)

2023:
Jan: -£83.71 (-22.62%)
Feb: -£40.33 (-9.84%)
Mar: -£117.15 (-28.57%)
April: +£171.34 (+38.03%)
May: +£412.95 (+99.51%)
June: +£21.13 (+3.87%)
July: -£123.11 (-22.8%)
Aug: +£160.78 (+35.34%)
Sep: -£162.40 (-40.6%)
Oct: -£29.01 (-9.56%)
Nov: +£591.56 (+175.54%)
Dec: +36.14 (+9.85%)

2022:
Jan: +£40.79 (+10.2%)
Feb: +£182.98 (+32.68%)
Mar: +£152.85 (+28.31%)
Apr: +£87.58 (+17.5%)
May: -£36.88 (-8.68%)
Jun: -£25.36 (-4.41%)
Jul: +£620.71 (+96.99%)
Aug: +£8.97 (+1.63%)
Sep: +£460.46 (+106.15%)
Oct: +£341.21 (+66.14%)
Nov: -£109.86 (-27.44%)
Dec: +£496.16 (+110.5%)

For Cheltenham festival & Royal Ascot 2022, I did a separate series of videos called the the £200 series, this was based on a medium risk staking plan, the figures are not included in any of the monthly figures or overall P&L figures.

Cheltenham Festival 2022
Bet: £200
Return: £323.30
Profit: £123.30 (+61.65%)

Royal Ascot 2022
Bet: £200
Return: £233.04
Profit: £33.04 (+16.52%)

——————————————
Profit & Loss for horse racing selections for each day of the week Jan 2022 – Dec 2023:

Friday +£1147.29
Wednesday +£695.43
Saturday +£678.89
Thursday +£510.39
Tuesday +£103.44
Sunday -£6.16
Monday -£75.05

Hello and welcome these are horse racing selections for Wednesday the 21st of February I am flat cap Callum and I’m hoping you are all very very well let’s start off with a quick rundown of the dates we have got six Channel days left of this month to try and turn this February disaster

Zone around we have got 3 weeks to the point of recording this video to the start of chelam is technically uh 20 days 20 days till chelam and we got four and a half weeks until uh Lincoln Saturday which is the last day I’ll be doing a video

Before going on an official Channel break from regular videos so uh as I kind of alluded to and spoke about on on previous vids plan is we’ll get to the 23rd of March Lincoln Saturday we’ll do that vid and then current thinking is that will be me on a channel break from

Regular vids for approximately 6 months taking six months from regular videos now worst case scenario or some would say best case scenario but I’ll go with worst case scenario is literally you might not see me for six months the other end of the spectrum is I might pop

Up every now and again with some bonus videos um I say bonus videos un unscheduled videos on particularly good days or or with extra videos about certain bits of content and stuff um that I haven’t got time I haven’t had time to make thus far so uh yeah four

And a half weeks to go we’ve got to uh get ourselves back on track that would be lovely um because February has just been absolute TSH like personally like at the moment I am staring down the barrel of of what could be my worst ever month of punting in my whole life that’s

How bad February 2024 has been all right so you know context I’ll say it all the time I’ll say it context you go back to the back end of last year it was pretty good it’s shortterm gig but um yeah the the losses of February I mean the

Channel we we’ve technically had worse months thus far um than where we’re at right now but personally uh yeah I’ve I’ve taken an absolute hammering in February so maybe that means maybe it’s just about to turn maybe February will come to the end and then March will be like some sort of

Shiny rainbow who knows right there’s no guarantees in this gig just because you’ve made profit consistently before doesn’t mean it just suddenly carries on like that and that’s why I never make any guarantees about anything I’m doing on the channel other than I will try my

Hardest and the whole aim here is to have a little bit of a fun and a little bit of an interest right that’s what it is right some people play the game for fun some people play it to make money I play it because I enjoy it and I like

Having fun I happen to make money that is how I operate everybody else could do it how they want to do it right and some people will be like I don’t understand it’s not it’s not fun it’s about making money and other people would be like

Well it’ be nice if I made some money but I quite like having some fun right my dad’s a great example he’s bet all of his life and uh he he’s he doesn’t make profit right so my dad is not a profitable Gambler so so I’ve I’ve got

Into the game through him I don’t follow what he does cuz he doesn’t make profit I’ve tried my artist and I’ve got him to not far off a break even gambler but there’s certain things he’ll always do he always puts his bets on in exactly the same staking plan I can’t shift him

From that and um he you know he always looks at big price and thinks probably walk away from that one so I want to try and find the third or fourth favorite that I like and that would that would be a strategy now the point is I would try

All my hardest he’s in it for the fun he’s not doing it to make money money it’s his hobby he likes an interest he doesn’t lose a million pounds doing it he’s always done it he factors that in you know he’s in his well into his 80s

And he likes having an interest than he always has so he puts a bet on every single day and you know unless he’s having a really really bad day of under the weather us he’ll put a bet on of something every single day and there’s plenty of people like that what I’m

Trying to do is show you that you could do that in most situations but how you can make a bit of long-term profit it clearly doesn’t look like that’s what happening if you judge it on the 2024 calendar where uh it’s not gone well if

You roll back and you look at last year we were what at the same point last year we were about 35 quid better off than where we are now so that isn’t actually very good uh and we still managed to turn it around in the end we got to the end of

The year 8:30 up for the channel the year before clearly was a bit of a dreamy one for the channel it was a couple of grand um so I will continue to plug on any anyway that’s mil long Preamble what I’m desperately not wanting to people to do is get so

Desperate they need to go and find somebody somebody else who you know has tipped more winners than anyone CU that would be sheer desperation folks um there you go so far as Wednesday goes um we got one bet we’re going one bet we’re going one horse donter one horse

Punches Town three horses Kempton a Canadian is a 9 Pound steak that is what we’ve got for Wednesday also on this feed I need to recap uh I think I did Saturday need to recap Sunday there was nothing in the comments Monday or Tuesday I do need to mention the golf

There is a there is four uh individual bets advised on the golf this week but they some of them are very specific for bookies I’ll get onto that and then was was going to talk about chelham anti postin just there was a little bit of stuff to talk about that other anti-

Postin because whilst everyone else is busy looking at all the weights of the Grand National and who’s entered in which CH handicaps that’s what everyone else is doing I’ll let them get on with that I’ll do what no one else is looking at so I’m going to start looking at the

Lincoln handicap aren’t I so I have got one also I’m going to Chuck out to you that I think is worth worth a BET right now than the Lincoln handicap um at 50 to1 so uh yeah so I’ve got I’ve got an anti post bet for you but it’s after

Chelham that’s not because I don’t care about chelham they’re not interested in chelham uh because I know you know there’s a whole divide between flat jumps I like both but I really like the Lincoln handicap and um yeah I put a bit I do put a bit of an investment more in

In terms of time in that more than I do most um flat handicaps so um yeah I’ll I’ll touch on that because there are a few bookies out that paying five places already and I think that’s that’s decent um so yeah I I do like a little bit of

That race uh and that’s why I chosen to sort of for the channel break to finish on that rate I mean be amazing if I could finish on that day with a horse and it be the horse I tipped up um 4 and 1/ half weeks previously but life doesn’t work like

That most of the time does it folks we all know that but um we we’ll give it a bash but I was going to mention yeah I’ll get on to chel post uh there’s probably some other stuff I might come to that if I remember what it was I’ll

See um I think there was there was some stuff in the comments people asked me about so recap Sunday we had five I did a bonus FD we had five the first four were junk and the last one ran a great race uh but got done one The Joint

Favorite got the got the the lead off him and uh RAB havin couldn’t quite get there on plant a dream so we that if he had done we’d have got our money back we didn’t we got second and therefore it was a couple of quid back so we ended

Last week minus 25 which is minus 97 for February which is a pretty ropey ropey month um that’s not we’re not quite into worst month ever territory in terms of of of like this so far but it’s not great right and we areus 139 for the

Year and as I said I think at this point last the previous year in 2023 we were something like minus 105 uh it got a lot worse before it got better in that year so the thing is here I will give you all the stats all you

Want but it’s all real and it’s all transparent and it a’t made up absolute junk I mean the absolute trip you ear on some of these places unreal unreal like it’s it it it’s it’s watchable for comedy in some belief isn’t it um but

Not in a way that they think it might be um so that’s that um let’s get on with a bet then here it is I’m doing them sound effects I know people keep coming I can’t even help it’s it’s only on these videos I don’t do it in real life it’s

It’s a YouTube thing anyway uh bet one 205 donc cast I got one on the UK jumps uh man inen man insane man insane man man insane man insane there we go these all onew ones I struggle with as you know 205 Don I struggle with a lot of

The names but 205 Doncaster man insane 8 to one that’s where we start him 455 punches toown there was a debate on this it’s a six Runner bumper um as regular views who pay attention know I do do quite a reasonable amount of of interest in

Bumpers and and uh not without a bit of Fortune in that as well but in it’s only six Runners right and um the you’ve got one at the top of the Mark it’s unraced decent train of course it’s going to be a short price in it you look at the

Others one of them’s got a nice bit of form in there there was two of them real Empire and another one that ran in the same race last time there weren much between them neither them ran strong because they were you know young young kind of uh horses are going to improve

So basically the horse that was um ahead of this one by a couple of lengths was is is something in the market about fives this is 16 to1 it’s just massively overpriced so do I think of got a strong Vibe is the best horse in the race no

But it’s just way overpriced at 16 to1 um it it probably should be about the 89 to Mark 8 n to Mar 8 to 8 to One n to one mark and it seemed to be a bit that short and then it drifted out um which

I’ll take the opportunity to do um so yeah you got to know where the value of a horse is if if if I’m sat looking at this thinking it’s 89 it’s 89 to1 in the market I just think well that’s the right price and I wouldn’t be looking at

The horse I don’t think it’s the best horse in the race I just think it’s significantly overpriced six run a race inexperienced horses it’s worth taking on a bit of a price against some no nothing that’s solidly proven so we’ll chance our arm with real Empire at punches town and then Kempton

5:00 it’s a classified but there are a few bookies um Paddy bet Fair uh bet mg and sky that are paying four on this race so that’s made it particularly interesting from an eway point of view Morris’s men is the one that I would have as as The Slight favorite but it’s

Not right now it has already come in um it was about 10 to1 12 to1 I think when the markets open in places but I still think I know six by my standards is short but there there’s absolute value in that horse from a point of view of it

It just looks to me like it should be the favorite so um that’s the one that’s in there then we’ve got two biger prizes at Kempton 730 Kempton moonlit Cloud if you watched that race last time um that that horse ran a nice race off a long

Break so if it can step on from that then then that’s that’s got a good chance and what is a competitive race that’s definitely a few in there you could argue a Cas are have got a little bit overpriced at the moment but moonlit cloud is the one that stands out and

Then 8:30 Kempton I’m convinced that horse at some point is going to drop in the frame it’s been just sliding sliding down the hand cat Mark Haley Turner on it uh for Wednesday night and yeah 25s is just too big I think that was the one

If you looked at the market it’s very odd bet 365 and at eights everyone else is about 25s to 20s um it shouldn’t be eights that’s too short uh but I I would have the horse in The Mark of around I say it probably should be about 14s I would back it um

I would back it at tens or twelves to be honest but I think 14s is actually probably about the right price for it I but but I would say it’s got slightly better chance than that because it’s just going to drop at some point and in the next couple of runs that’s that’s

When it will be but yeah 25 is a good price so 10p each way Canadian 50p each way singles on the three double figure price horses no singles on the single figure price horses and then we got a 40p each way double on the bottom twoo

Um yeah I mean we’ve generally my form at the moment has been Wayward as as as the double form but we’ll see we’ll see if we can drop something uh on Wednesday night at Kempton nine quid is the BET Sky come out best because there are

Extra places on on a number of these races where other bookies aren’t Paddy second um because you’ll get bog if you do it in the morning and then bet fair and bet MGM um so if the place terms say the stame on that one it’s one of them

Races bet 365 May well go four places in the morning too um then yeah it’ll be four places that 5:00 Kempton if it doesn’t change because we’ve got Sky Paddy and Betfair at the moment possibly more in the morning that are paying four places uh that’s a three place that’s a two

Place uh and I think they’re both I think maybe one of them is three and one of them’s four something like that can’t remember so bit bit like that all right that is the bet for um Wednesday so what else do I need to talk to you about golf so those of

You interested in golf as usual I’ll put it in the description but we didn’t do any golf last week one goal for the week before little bit more interest this week four bets across three tournaments so I will start with and I’ll verbally just give you a bit of an overview for

Those of you want this if you don’t want this just skip about two minutes um so the golf the keny the Mexico open the Mexico open um on the PJ tour I’ve got one in the Side Market so not in the main Market in the Side Market top Continental European in the Mexican

Open the specific bet is Franchesco Molinari at 28 to1 which is available bet Fred and boil Sports there’s not many bookies that priced the market up so you can’t get this on everywhere and the watch out is that bet Fred and Bo sports are 28 a quarter of the odds there’s 14

Players in that market there are other bookies that are a similar price but are a sixth of the odds and when when you’re pay playing in an each way market that’s a real difference right so a quarter of 28 is seven so Place terms seven plus your stake back so um that basically

Four times your stake if you did it each way and it placed right so that so that’s what you’d get back um because yeah quarter of 28 is seven plus your state back is eight you get eight times your stake because you’ve put half of

The stake on the Wind bet if it if Mullen ARL second or third you get four times what you put on if you’re only getting a sixth of the odds a sixth of 28 is uh whatever whatever basically about 4.6 or 4 66 recurring something like that um so that’s significantly different than

Seven so you get 5.66 recurring of your stake back right eight that might sound like you know you’re still going to make a profit because you would do if you come second or third but you’re taking away margin and so I wouldn’t be advising it on this you still would get

A win right if if he was second or third but a sixth of the odds but sixth of the odds 14 players doesn’t translate as well so yeah the the bet is if you can find a bookie pan qu of the odds 28s is standout price 25s would be fine

Probably 22s I would consider I’d walk away from that and I’d walk away from a six of the odds um hopefully that makes sense then in the Kenya open one player um one player in the Kenya open hurly long had a delayed reaction there hurly

Long coming a little bit I do need to think about this around um some of these tournaments you get a much better price if you start looking on a Monday then I’m doing a video on a Tuesday night but um still good and the advised bookie for

Hurly long um was 888 and William Hill 125 to1 that is the best price but there’s quite a few bookies paying 100 and i’ I’d be absolutely fine you get 100 to one on hurly long that’s my one player for the Kenya open on the European tour and then two players um I

Don’t know if I’ve ever maybe I have I don’t remember it but I’ve got two players on the Asian tour at the Oman International series I think it’s something like that it’s called if you not all bookies will will will have priced it up but on the Asian tour right

So so so you you’ve got PJ tour is number one tournament number two tourn so non tour is the European tour the Asian tour is the third best tour I would say um and there’s some names in there that have got some familiarity and they’re playing over in Oman uh so two

Players in there uh which is written down and the advisor is sky sky are very stand out on that tournament for these two particular players so Joshua Greenfield wood who we’ve backed before who who was is based out in the Emirates um plays well there and dropping on a on

A Next Level tier tournament is a decent enough price um I say that what just off check that on my Note what was the price you can get hundreds on Sky elsewhere about 70s or 80s and I would absolutely be happy with 70s or 80 but Sky 100 so

If you’ve got a sky count you can get 100 to one on Joshua grandel wood you not yourself out but if you can only get 70s or 80s I would take that price that’s a good price still for Joshua Greenfield wood and the other one which

I think is the the standout um bet of the four I’m putting out and the bigger price Kevin Yuan uh that’s why U Kevin Yuan um 175 to one on sky but you can get 150 as most other bookies on that Asian tour Oman series uh event um yeah

That’s that’s the best value of the four biggest price and much much I would be back in any probably 60s I would back that at 60s i’ back that back him kav Yan back him at 60s and you get 175 so that gives you scope for for for a lot of movement

On that price all right that’s the golf uh I was going to mention chelham um so nothing nothing’s changed on the at post Market I just really an observation that um I don’t know what it is this year I mean I’ve put less time on it definitely

With anti poost stuff but I’ve just not found as much and just not been inclined to look at it and I’m not going to do anything anti poost on the handicaps now those have come out um I find that if you’re playing in the kind of the more

Favorites Market you you might get a few points um anti poost but you know my sort of world at these these sort of prices I’d be looking at 25 33 to one shots and they’re not going to come in massively before a race so I’m not looking at the anti poost market for

Handicaps at chelham and I toled it up right so I think on the channel I’ve put out five horses anti poost to cheltonham and in total in all of my my bets that I’ve done personally I’ve only actually backed 11 horses anti poost which is significantly smaller than I’ve done the

Last few years it’s a really small amount by my standards in terms of outlay of cash is much much less um so yeah so I put the five best ones I found on the channel but I’ve got i’ I’ve done 11 in total um and that’s it uh and and

This stage if you are still thinking you might do an anti poost bet I would I’d be looking around for the better prices tend to be at the moment on BET Fred and bet 365 and you kind of want to if you can get an extra five or six points by not

Taking non non-runner no bet and you’re actually going anti poost Market those those five six seven points could be worth huge amounts depending on what kind of horse you’re back in so yeah if you’re doing your own stuff I I wouldn’t necessarily be looking at non-runner no

Bet because um you’ll find you should be you’ll be losing too much margin I think in that market that’s how I would read it um and then what was I going to say to you about Lincoln yes yeah when everyone’s getting excited about the Grand National weights and the handicap

Entes for chelham I’m on a video on the same day saying to you I’ve been looking at the Lincoln um and metal Merchant that’s the horse I’ve looked at uh and uh you on Paddy Betfair and B MGM keep coming up at the moment bet MGM Paddy

And Betfair you can get 50 to one five places there’s quite a lot of other bookies you get 50 to one four places 50 to one five places if you went on last year’s weights it’s it technically it would be it would just be it would just

Be missing out off a cut Mark right that’s where we’re at with that horse um so it would just one pound lower than the lowest lowest weight last year and uh if you compare it to the previous two years it actually would get in um so the

Thing with a horse like that is you’re you’re looking at a horse that’s not run since last season so you don’t know if it’s going to turn up on the day you don’t know what Fitness level so you’re trying to understand from a stable point

Of view um where where the horse is is is at are they a stable that can run a horse fresh it’s it’s trained by Jack Shannon yes the answer is he he’s absolutely very capable of running a horse Fresh So got no issues there

Will it run in the race or not he’s got three entries in the race currently there’s been some previous with the two others uh The Majestic that was placed last year and Johan which won for the channel the year before so the previous two Runnings of the Lincoln he’s had a

Framer and I can see how the Majestics really well handicapped again so that’s definitely potential I wouldn’t be looking at Yohan this year um metal Merchant is is a better profile a younger horse it’s still progressing uh I think the last run it had last season

It ran a Duffer and before that it looked it looked more Progressive I think it’s on a decent handicap Mark I think it’s pretty much ground versatile um and yeah for me it’s got It’s got a nice profile for a horse who this sort of stage in the market I would say

Should be more about the 16 18 to one mark So 50 to1 looks like good good margin it might not run in the race when the weights come out and the cut s come in it might be it drops into the spring mile and then you lose your bet so for

Those you who don’t understand the context the Lincoln runs on the same day as a spring mile some these type these Races they call them consolidation races in on the Lincoln Day the spring mile is basically the consolidation race so the next horses down from the link and you

Do have to actually enter the race um but you tend to find it’s the it’s the next ones down from the Lincoln that go in the spring mile so you can’t bet that anti poost at the moment as far as I can sit so just betting on the Lincoln But

Metal Merchant 50s I think they some good value particularly if you can get on with Paddy Bell MGM 50 is five places that’s a good bet um anything else uh there was a few things I think Tom asked a question about price drifts is stuff I’ve covered before

But and it links to uh a question or not a question it was it was a thought that uh chance to put up the other day as well which is uh you know he he said about he you’d love to know the stats right cuz I talk about Drifters all the

Time that I’m happy with Drifters if you look at shorteners if you go the other way look at shorteners what’s the history of the Channel with horses I put up here that shorten dramatically because it absolutely feels and I haven’t got the stats for it but I’m

Telling you it feels and I agree with the point it was making it feels that you know if they go from 28s into 9 to1 we’re done for that’s how it feels right so conventional wisdom in the horse ricing world as I always tell you people believe shorteners are good Drifters are bad

Shorteners sometimes are not shorteners because loads of money’s gone in for them because people think they’ve got inside of knowledge sometimes shorteners are there because the price was wrong in the first place so if it went to 28 to1 it started 28 to1 and you backed it and

It’s become 9 to1 that doesn’t me loads of Insider knowledge says money’s gone down that that’s the market correcting itself 9 to1 could well you know in theory is what people would say is the true price that doesn’t mean the horse is going to win still a nine to one shot

Got a nine to one chance of winning is what they would suggest and you know you probably you’ve got a a one in three chance roughly speaking of it framing that’s what you get with a net to one shot um so it doesn’t mean it’s a good thing but drifting occasionally drifting

Means some sort of inside knowledge is said that horse has got a problem it’s got no chance and if it happens right near the off sometimes that’s people on course making a judgment thinking the horse doesn’t look right or doesn’t look fit feed that into the book makers and

It goes like that but the vast majority of times on right at the end horses are short some horses are shortening up something else has got to get bigger it doesn’t mean that the horse that you liked is on there so it it doesn’t mean that the horse you liked necessarily is

A bad thing so I will often bet more on a big on a horse drifting now when I say that so um the way I would explain is I have set criteria about my own staking where by based on the difference between what I think the horse should be and

What it is the bigger that Gap the more I put on right that that works like that and I’ve got roughly tears of how I might do that if then near the off the horse has drifted and fallen into the next tier that would trigger me into

Putting more money on it’s not to say if I backed it at 33s in the morning and it’s 40 at the off I’m automatically going to go and put more money on that is not what I’m saying what I’m saying is is if the drift is big enough that it

Tips me into the next tier and you got to work that out for what it means for yourself but if you’ve backed to six to one shot and you really liked it it’s 12 to1 now for the off that’s a significant that’s doubled in price right that’s

Probably where you might want to think well maybe that that’s that’s tipped me over into to put in more money doesn’t mean you go put your house on it it’s all got to be relative to whatever your stake in is so um you know my yeah my my

Personal staking that’s how I would that’s how I would do it I can’t do that for the channel I’m not going to come and make a video two minutes before the office say the horse of drifted put more money on and I’m certainly you know can’t recall that kind of stuff for the

Stats but you know there’s been plenty of situations on the channel where we’ve had a big price horse that’s drifted and if you think about big price winners and big price places on the channel not many of them have actually shortened up they’ve either stayed the same or or

Nudged out a couple of points um that’s that’s if you know even if you just look look through 2024 and you go the horses that have won it nice price or or come second at nice price like we’ve had quite a few of them particularly in

January most of those did not shorten up dramatically they stayed the same or they got a bit bigger um and that doesn’t mean that that they were well fan ites it doesn’t what it means is the market didn’t agree with my view so I have to get it right enough I don’t have

To get it right all the time and I don’t have to get it right majority of the time it just have to get it right enough I’m playing in a much bigger end of the market than most people do lots of people think playing in the end of the

Market I’m playing in is stupid it’s nonsense why would you do it yada yada yada you have to accept in my world the the the baron runs are longer there were less wins and there are more Baron runs and you have to psychologically be able

To deal with that fact right and I’m got good at doing that for myself I do find it struggle sometimes on the channel right and I am not enjoying the last few weeks one iota it is painful personally yes I’ve had an absolute shocker of a month and I a very

Good but I just get on with it and and I don’t go chasing do anything different didn’t like anything Monday Tuesday I didn’t have a bet on Monday Tuesday didn’t put anything in the comments but I didn’t have any bet myself there’s nothing was worth doing so that in

Itself is is is okay um you just have to accept that in my way of of working at the higher end of the market you will have more way way way more losers because you’re getting that but but if you’re on a 25 to1 shot that should be a

12 to one shot it’s still got a 12 to1 chance of winning and it’s still got a whatever 3.2% chance three three one in 3.2 one one in 2.2 you know what I’m trying to say my brain’s gone now but in terms of its percent chance it’s it’s percentage

Chance of placing still that’s what it is right so it doesn’t make it the even money favorite even money favorites should win 50% of the time you’d think um and what you find if you back short prices is you will go on runs where lots of short prices win together and you’re

Looking great and then you’ll go on a run where quite a few don’t and overall and overall you know you got to be pretty shrewed over a long period of time when I say long period of time six months at least I’d be judging a results

Package right so not not like a month but six months that’s how you would judge your some it works um one last thing I’ll Chu this in while I’m talking and chuntering on and I I I know I’ll get emails and notes and dispatchers telling me waffling on and get on with

It but if you if you’ve got this far and you don’t want to hear it you should have turned off ages ago you know I trundle on about stuff so sort of your own fault and I don’t sympathy if you’re here for the pets you shouldn’t be listening right now do you

Know what I mean anyway what I was going to say um uh oh no now I’ve just completely lost my train of thought with that own tangent um what was I going to say uh oh I mean this is the worst climax of a video ever it like that’s just awful

Literally I was I was going to say something there that I thought was uh that was that was quite profound and uh oh yes I do know I do know what I was going to say um and this plays into when you’re doing your own stuff right so for

Those of you who play your own strategies what most people do incorrectly most people do incorrectly is they think they’ve got an idea about strategy and they try it and they go oh it doesn’t work most people have done it incorrectly because they try for 3 Days

5 days seven days a month that is not a length of time for you to test it so if you’ve got a theory about something about oh you’ve got an angle and an edge because the game is All About Angles and edges and it’s about trying to see

Things that most others don’t in order for you to get the value if you’ve got a theory like that you got two two ways you can do it one bet tiny tiny tiny tiny Stakes right to test your theory out so keep a log keep a track of what

It is you’re doing but do it over a really long period of time time at least 6 months you know you can see from the history of the channel the data fluctuates all the time and you’ll be finding the different types of racing different times of year where you you’re

Better and worse and so for some strategies they might work in the spring the summer the winter the Autumn but they might not work all year round and you got to try and work out what does and I when I’m selecting horses I I do

Use times of year and types of races and slightly alter what I’m doing so the type of horse I’m looking for in different in a kton six furong race it’s very different to the type of horse I’m looking at in two and a half mile hdle race and I appreciate when I say

Difference I’m not meaning the obvious that one’s a sprinter and one’s you know a middle distance stayer but the types of indicators I look for are slightly different because I’ve wor worked out a long time things I would look for and I don’t have a precise sence but if you’re doing your own

Strategies my suggestion is don’t give up too soon because if all you do is want to judge it over a few days days most of the time you’ll go you’ll give up and you think it doesn’t work anymore I’m not going to try that you have to

Get long period of time data and that means you need to write things down and track it you don’t need a spreadsheet some of the stuff I do I literally just use the notes app on my phone and I keep records of things like that um so I’ve

Got lots of spreadsheets for for stuff I do on the stats but I also keep a lot of quick things I need to do on the notes so if I’m trying of testing something out I use the note app on my phone and I’ll write each day what I’ve done and

What I’m looking for you know you’re going to try I know I want to see how well top weights do in certain types of distance race and that kind of stuff then that test it over a long period of time that is my advice there is too much

I’ve said it before recency bias how many people just pick a horse based on how it ran last time that’s what most people do that’s that you’re never going to win an edge if all you’re doing is looking at last time out you need to look over a longer period of time

Recency buas it it’s worked well for a week it’s going to carry on wor working forever that’s recency bias it hasn’t worked for the last week therefore it’s rubbish I won’t do it again that is recency bias so what I do is I have a long period of time worth of data so

Although I have a bad run at something I know in the long term it’s all right and that’s why some people can’t deal with what I do because uh yeah you look at this year and you go it’s rubbish you don’t know what you’re doing you’re clueless you’re down by 20 something

Per. the last bit is 100 % factually true the other bit is subjective if you go over a Year’s data then I am making a profit it might not be the profit that some people want to make you know some people would think should do all sorts

Of different things but it is a profit all the same over a longer period of time and that’s what I’m ultimately interested in but most punters are short-termist and they want to get a fix and try and find something and find the solution they go on to the next thing

And next thing or I’m going to try this new tipster I’m going to do it for a couple of days oh it’s not really good cuz I I haven’t won anything in a couple of days long period of time clearly as you know I’m not advocating going paying

For somebody um there are a couple of places out there I’m sure that exist that you could pay for that do good things but a lot of them are not like that all right um there we go you you’ve add your 35 mfield we’ll leave it like that I’ll be back

Um yeah oh we outlet for this week I’ll be back be back tomorrow and I but there’s a question mark about whether I actually might do a video because the racing really doesn’t look very good on Thursday um so there’s probably a query on that so I whenever the next video is

Uh so I might end up doing a bit might end up doing um tips the league on Thursday night I might do that update Thursday night because yeah tomorrow night would be a late upload if there is one there’s a chance I might not do a Thursday bet because I’ve already looked

Through the overview and there’s definitely potential it could be a day where I’d just sit it out so I’ll let you know on that one and then Friday definitely looks looks a goer um and Saturday we’ll have we’ll have some stuff on and then I think it’s unlikely

Uh of doing anything on Sunday there’s a couple of handicaps in Ireland that got about 20 Runners at the moment uh but if they drop down shorter then I’ll probably walk away from that but one of them is a PMS qualify which is interesting because it’s quite close to

Sh um but yeah so thinking that Thursday’s a question Mark Friday Saturday will be good unlikely bonus feed all right that’s me have a good Wednesday and I’ll see you on the next F thank you very much bye-bye