Arnold Palmer Invitational 2024 | PGA DFS Preview + Best Bets

Leave Bay Hill with your glass half full thanks to our PGA DFS preview & best bets for the Arnold Palmer Invitational 2024.

Can Kurt Kitayama (75-1) go back-to-back, or will Viktor Hovland (16-1) end golf’s run of longshot winners?

PGA Tour analysts Conor Coughlin & Bo McBrayer cover course notes, core plays, outrights, props & more for this iconic Tour tournament on “The 19th Hole (S4 E10).”

⏰ Time Stamps:
00:00:00 Introduction
00:03:00 2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational Review
00:06:08 What Are We Drinking?
00:07:40 Caddie Notes: Bay Hill Course Breakdown & Tournament Preview
00:15:00 Club Twirls: 2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational Best Bets
00:41:54 No Trunk Slams: 2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational DFS Core Plays & Fades
01:05:15 Outro

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🏌️‍♂️ Conor Coughlin (https://twitter.com/Cough_DFS/)
🏌️ Bo McBrayer (https://twitter.com/Bo_McBigTime/)

Good evening, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome back to the 19th hole. We are live right there. See it? Check the sign. We have reached the Arnold Palmer Invitational. If you are a longtime subscriber, make sure you stay subscribed. If you’re not, hit that subscribe button. Like this video.

Like every video you see on this channel in between media. This is the 19th hole. We’re going to cover the Arnold Palmer Invitational where one year ago, I called a 250-1 hit. Shout out NorCal. My guy, Kurt Kitayama, took this thing home. From the longest odds,

You’re going to find a champion to have. We’re going to get into this year’s Bay Hill tournament, the Arnold Palmer Invitational. We’re going to talk about last year because I can’t stop talking about last year. I’m going to talk about last year probably for the rest of my life.

But let’s get to it. This is the 19th hole. Hey, Connor’s here. Not from his normal room. He’s moving. He is in motion. Connor, how are you feeling tonight? You look handsome as ever. Thank you. Yeah, it’s the lighting in here. Much different than my normal projector in the face.

Yeah, I like it. And you got that nice high back chair. Makes you look like a businessman. Smells like rich mahogany. Hey, many leather bound books. Oh, there are leather bound books directly behind me. Wendy early, Wendy early on time, two weeks in a row. That’s gotta be some kind of record.

We love you, Wendy. Thank you for joining us from the Chicagoland area and our big winner from a couple of weeks ago. From Mr. Mexico, he threw out some money on Jake Knapp in a FanDuel tournament with Sammy Valamaki, if I’m not mistaken. One of my new clients is from Finland,

And she knows who Sammy Valamaki is, and she said I pronounced his name perfectly. So I’ll take that credit, too. But Coalition Breezy, big winner. Congrats, dude. Let’s hope we can bring you some more all season long here on the 19th hole. Connor and I have… popped two weeks in a row.

We talked a little bit about Austin Ekbro last week, but this show, I want to talk about last year’s Zarna Palmer Invitational because it’s one of the biggest hits I’ve ever even heard of on a golf betting show. Am I right? I mean, 251 is insanity. And it’s insanity for

Anybody with those odds to win a tournament of that caliber. However, it wasn’t just that. I went out there and said, hey, we’re betting on this guy here, not just because he’s from the same hometown, not just because I played against his older brother in high school,

But because he was a good course fit. He’s a grinder. He has the right ball flight, the right distance. He had all these things working in his favor at Bay Hill last year, and lightning struck. We hit it big. It was a nice payout there. I even have a clip reminding

All of you all, What I said, I clipped it short. I talked about this guy for like two whole minutes on the show last year, but I trimmed it down to 13 seconds just so I could show you. Which time are you talking about? Two whole minutes? That’s like every time. I know.

But here’s from last year. From the end of the show where we’re throwing out our long shot bets, this is 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational on the 19th hole. Let me go in and start that right there. And so even though it’s top heavy, throwing a guy out there,

I’m going to put in $5.30 from the dirty 530 Chico, California, Kurt Kitayama from the top rope at 251. How about that call, Connor? I will say this. You had no hesitation. You were all in. And that was one of the boldest calls we had done up to that point. And possibly,

Possibly on the show as a whole. So, yeah, I can’t take anything away from you. You definitely nailed that. And Kurt Kitayama, super nice dude. You talk about him all the time. Hopefully one of these days we can connect with him. But played the course brilliantly, grounded out just like we

Thought you might have to. And, I mean… Good on you for seeing the value. And we put some respect on his name this year. We’ll get into the betting odds for this year’s Arnold Palmer Invitational a little bit later in the show. But it’s not just Kurt Kitayama. It’s that type of golfer.

This is traditionally a tournament where the favorites win. And that was, for me, it was just a call based on course fit, how I felt like his style could fit here. And there’s a lot of guys at the top of this field this year that are going to be in contention.

And we’re putting some respect on Kurt Kitayama’s name. His odds this year as defending champion are one-fifth of what they were last year. So we’re getting some recognition for the young lad from Chico, California, because he’s got game, game, game. So what you drinking? So I’m down here in Bluffton. There you go.

Yeah, I think I’m lagging a little, but I’m down here. My parents in Bluffton and my dad’s got this single barrel Woodford that I don’t know that I was supposed to crack into, but I did. And so we’re going to drink that. And it’s obviously a single barrel.

So even better than the usual Woodford. You know, I’m a huge Woodford fan. is the season to reminisce about all things norcal so I have my sierra nevada brewery of course pride of chico california same pride as myself and kurt katyama sierra nevada brewery uh flip side red ipa and of

Course I had to put it in my in-between media beer koozie so it keeps it nice and fresh and cold for the entire show because you’re enjoying the in-between of course Let’s say we got to talk about Bay Hill. This course is brutal. It’s fun. It’s got carnage. It’s got fast Bermuda greens,

Which we thought we were going to get last week, but we didn’t because it was too wet and soft. Yeah, overall, I think the caddy notes are going to have some really revealing things for Connor to talk about here. A little bit different this year. I like the changes they’ve

Made to signature events. Let’s hit the drop and Connor can talk about Bay Hill. All right, Connor, lay it out for us. I’m going to do my best. I’ve been having some technical difficulties, so I’ll be reading my show notes from my cell phone, so this will be good. That’s okay.

You sound better now than you did a couple minutes ago, so it seems to have smoothed out. Buffering. We’re buffering. It’s okay. arnold palmer invitational uh arnold palmer’s bay hill club and lodge in orlando florida uh par 72 7,466 yards uh bermuda fairways bermuda greens we got 80

Golfers no cut it is a signature elevated event like beau alluded to so uh yeah the no cut it’s really nice um especially in this this caliber of a field so uh dfs is going to be a lot of fun this week but uh Getting back to the course,

Bay Hill is super tough. It’s probably one of the toughest on tour year after year, so much so that it’s had the highest amount of penalty strokes on tour last year. Several approach shots to greens, surrounded by water, protected by water, etc. Speaking of water, about nine of the holes

Have water firmly in play. Plenty of strategic bunkering per usual right now. We got excess of 80 bunkers in action this week, so A lot of sand, a lot of water. It’s going to feel like a day at the beach, essentially. But the bunkers, because of where they are,

We are going to see some forest layups. We are going to see some greens missed, even though these greens are pretty massive. I think they rate out fourth largest on tour. Fairways are narrow, like I already touched on. They’ve got forced layups. But it does take some of the

Distance out of the equation. You’ll see guys taking a little less than driver off a lot of tees. You don’t want to be in the rough here. Super thick. Outside of maybe some of the majors, you’re not going to see a little deeper, more lush rough. Deep, thick rough. And then the greens,

Getting back to those for a second, they are – Generally very firm, very fast, and like we said, large complexes. So three-putt avoidance might be something to take a look at this week. Historically here, the guys that have risen to the top, like both said, are usually some of the more favorite guys,

Some of the more elite guys, but something they all have in common is they’ve had elite approach, solid putting, and not just around the green scrambling, but overall scrambling. Almost all of them have gained the week that they won the tournament. So those are some things to keep in mind about the course.

The weather right now, you’re probably looking at your best odds to have adverse weather late probably afternoon Friday uh some of Saturday we’re probably going to have some Gus somewhere in the neighborhood of 20 miles an hour temperature is going to be pretty decent though so uh definitely wind and the

Course does have a lot of open elements to it where the wind can play havoc on you so you definitely want to look at way uh T wave splits you want to look at guys that can play in adverse conditions I would say that the winning score here, probably somewhere around 11 under.

Like I said, we don’t have to worry about a cut this week, which is nice. As Bo has victory lapsed for the first five minutes of the show, Kurt Kitayama is your defending champion at nine under. And then we had Scheffler before that at five under, Bryson 11 under, Terrell Hatton at four,

And Francesco Molinari at 12 prior to that. Great job. Yeah, I’ll echo your statements about T to green game being so important, not just length, like bombers do get an advantage here, especially on the par fours. And then the par fives are your scoring opportunities. Your par threes are your challenging,

Got to make par holes. If you don’t make pars on these par threes, you got no chance. If you don’t make birdies on the par fives, you got no chance. It’s going to be holding water, staying above water on the par threes and par fours, and then scoring on the par fives.

If you don’t do that, you have no chance. That’s why the Bombers have such an advantage here because the par threes are massive. Like we’re talking the shortest ones, 190 something. The longest one’s 230. This is going to be a gnarly course where par is a great

Score on just about all the holes. And that’s why the favorites seem to rise to the top most of the time. And even last year when Kitayama won, he had a two-shot lead heading into the back nine on Sunday. And he had four of the top five players in the world

Within two shots of him. And he held them off, which was great for all of us. But he had Victor Hovland, Scotty Scheffler, all these guys trying to chase him down on the back nine at Bay Hill. And he held true. That doesn’t mean that we’re going to get a long shot

Winner this year. It really doesn’t. We’re looking at a guy who’s an amazing ball striker who can get out of trouble, who can escape with a par or even with a bogey. You get some of these guys in a water hazard or even short-sighted in a greenside bunker.

If you can make a solid score on those holes where you make mistakes, that’s how you keep yourself alive because big numbers are all over this course. Even on the scoring holes, if you mess up, you can mess up really big and you’re, I think that there is a cut here,

But almost virtually nobody will get cut because it’s top 50 in ties out of 69 golfers. You might get all 69 and make the cut, honestly, if they’re within a certain amount of strokes. I would agree with pretty much everything you just said. I would add,

You touched on a couple of the key stats, but Shots gained tee to green. Definitely something to be fully aware of this week. Shots gained approach like almost any week. But I would mix in some opportunities gained just to see how close we’re knocking it. Putting I looked at, especially on fast Bermuda

Bogey avoidance like Bo just touched on par five scoring the four par fives here. I think Bo already touched on this as well. But the four par fives are the four most scorable holes. So you’re going to need guys that can take advantage of that. Uh, proximity ranges, uh,

200 plus is one that I looked at quite a bit. You’re going to have some in that bucket just below that, maybe that one 75 to 200, but 200 plus should give you a pretty good indicator of the guys that are handy with the long steel. And then a par three scoring

Over 200 yards. Most of the par threes are going to fall into that category. So par fives and par threes, that’s where your scoring ops are going to come in, or at least your, uh, need to not avoid giving them back. Yeah, couldn’t agree more. Let’s head on over to the budding side,

Budding beddings. Yes, let’s do that. Let’s hit the drop for club twirls. All right, let’s twirl some clubs and let’s hit some big winners this week. We have a treat for you because I have my model on screen share here. I’m going to add it to the stage here. Oh, let’s scroll down.

Yeah. So I got I’m going to go last 24 rounds. I named the model Arnold Palmer 24. That’s really, really clever, right? Let’s sort by what we got here. You see the stats or strokes gained par four, par five, bogey avoidance, tee to green, ball striking, birdie or better,

Gain is still important, scrambling, proximity to long approach shots. All the same things you just said. I’m using the same stats. I might be weighting them a little differently than you, which might produce some varying results. But as you can see, I have a lot of different guys here that

Their odds are here, so Xander Shoffley coming at 16-1, Scotty 7-1. What stands out to you at the top of this board? Because I have a really distinct feeling that one of these favorite guys that’s less than 30-1 is going to win this thing, but I’m having a lot of

Trouble drilling down to which guys I like the most. Yeah, so… Excellent. The guy that I like the most is at 22, actually, probably in there. I’ve got a couple of guys like you. You can’t just full out right off guys like Rory and Scotty. It’s an odds thing for me.

Scotty plus 650. I want to believe that this putter change that he’s undergone over the last couple of weeks is going to fix some of those woes. And the interesting thing with Scottie is, is that if you look at what he’s done statistically over the last about 10 rounds,

I think he’s only finished outside of the top 10 once. And in that span, he hasn’t even broken even on the putting surface. So as a matter of fact, I think at the Genesis, he finished 10th and I think he lost almost six strokes putting. So just to put things in perspective,

Scottie, had he putted flat that week, would have probably won the Genesis so I I think it’s I think it’s really wild to think like that but it 650 almost sounds like a good number for a guy that potentially all we needed was him to find a couple of

Putts um and he’s that much more Elite than the rest of the field so Well, yeah, you’re looking at these stats and the scrambling has a lot to do with putting as well. Saving par with these six to eight foot par putts. That’s not his forte. And as you can see,

It’s ranked 52nd out of 69 golfers here in scrambling. But if you look at every single other stat that we’re looking at, Scotty Scheffler is nails. And like tee to green wise, he’s by far the best guy in this field. It’s not even close. And so, like you said, if he can putt,

Like not lose strokes, just don’t lose that many strokes putting, this guy’s going to win here. He won here two years ago with flat putting because he’s that good from tee to green. He’s that good off the tee. He’s unbelievable on approach, no matter the distance. This guy is so good on

Approach with his irons. that it’s it’s historic what he’s doing with irons these days and so yeah I just take seven to one six plus 650 for scotty scheffler with his history here of immense success he could have won here last year if he had a couple more shots

Around that back nine he could have very easily passed up kurt kidiyama and won that thing for the second year in a row uh he’s world class everywhere but putting and I think that he has enough good vibes here recently to overcome that and win this thing Where I don’t like short

Odds is on Rory McIlroy because all the things you say about Scotty Rory’s not doing well with the wedge Those those par fours where he’s gonna be bombing it down there and having a wedge in his hand terrible form lit recently Scrambling with the wedge out of bunkers and tight

Lies around the greens struggle bus for Rory I don’t I don’t like his odds here. It’s way too short for his recent form and and so if I’m if I’m forced to pick between rory and scotty it’s easy it’s scotty but I’m almost wanting to go to victor hovland and xander shafley

Because I feel like they’re just stronger at all the things I want them to be strong about at bay hill than rory is for twice the money it just doesn’t make any sense I love victor hovland here victor hovland after struggling with his chipping first couple years he was here,

Has been top 10 the last three years in a row. You know why? Because his chipping is decent. He’s gotten his game figured out, and everywhere else he’s super strong. With Rory, I think Rory is a bit of a conundrum because the wedge play, which had been a lot better

Over the course of the back half of the year, really did fall off last week. He definitely gave a ton of strokes back. the challenging thing this week is he just has such good history at API and Bay Hill in general. I mean, he’s, he’s got a win here.

He’s got, he tied for second and 23. It was a T 13 before that T 10 before that T five, T six, T four, T 27, T 11. I mean, it’s just every time he shows up here, he’s competing. So that was the only bit I wanted to add about Rory.

So I don’t, I wrote Rory or put Rory as a kind of an asterisk might make the card bet in my column this week. So I definitely am not out on Rory, but I’m still doing a little more research. as far as Victor Hovland is concerned, I, I think there’s just guys

That I prefer to him. I, I think the last, last couple of times that I’ve seen him in action, I just, I don’t know that he’s the same golfer that made the rally at the tail end of last year. And with that being said, just performance as of late, I think,

I think it’s a pretty, pretty short odds on him right now where he’s at in this field. And then Xander, Xander and Cantley, I’m, I literally rated out like back to back in my modeling. Yeah. And so I’m really, really split on them. They’re going to be kind of a last minute decision.

And frankly, I’ll probably just lean whichever one has better odds at the moment. Well, right now that’s Cantley and Cantley has been sharp as a tack this season. He’s as solid as it gets. That dude does not, does not struggle. Like even when you see, Oh, Patrick Cantley is not

Having himself a good week. He’s like tied for seventh. The dude is automatic. He’s as safe as it gets for a top 10 bet. You might as well pencil him in for a top five this week too. And those are pretty good odds themselves. He’s plus 1800 to win the thing.

Obviously third in my model, as you can see, but we got a guy that we both love. Who’s probably going to win comeback player of the year this year. He was, he opened a 30 to one. I was at 25, Justin Thomas. Have you heard of the guy?

Have you heard of this Justin Thomas guy? Because I love Justin Thomas this week. I love Justin Thomas for the year, but my guy in this range is Jordan Spieth. Jordan Spieth, another guy who’s in two starts here, two T4s. To quote myself, Jordan Spieth finds a way. I can’t explain it.

You watch him, it’s some of the ugliest stuff you’re going to see. I just talked about how we want a guy who can grind out tough pars, scramble around the greens and hit the, hit the greens. Like despite maybe he’s not going to miss, he’s not going to make it

Hit half the fairways, but he finds a way. Like if you’re looking at the best short game in the world right now, this is the guy makes pars where pars need to be made. And Jordan Spieth is every bit the player that you’re looking for here. I worry about his off the

Tee game here because it is so challenging. I worry about him on faster surfaces putting because he hasn’t shown the best form putting on fast Bermuda. However, yeah, like everything you said there is like wedge play is so important here and there’s nobody better than Jordan Spieth.

And strangely in his two starts here, I think he’s gained almost an average of six and a half strokes scrambling and around the green. So For whatever reason, these greens fit his eye. I’m with you. Typically, like the ultra-fast, bigger complexes, not where I like to get behind Jordan’s short game.

But this place, two starts and almost identical performances on both. And frankly, I think he’s actually maybe in better form now than he was this time last year. So I’m in on Spieth. Unfortunately, just because I can’t bet them all, I’m probably going to take a pass on JT this week. Oh, no.

Yeah, dude, I love JT. You know, I do for the year. Like I’m, I’m all in on JT for the year. I’m with you comeback player of the year, possibly player of the year outright. So, um, but I, I just, like I said, you can’t bet them all. And, uh,

Speed just rates out better for me in this range. you can bet them all it’s just not very good value because even if you win you kind of lose yeah I get it it’s for me I’m I’m leaning victor and a little bit of can’t lay and it’s tough

Because I look at ludwig ober he’s no business being shorter than 20 to one it’s just it doesn’t make any damn sense what is he doing here uh something about this the sports book they love ludwig they love him and we love him too as a player Like,

We were the earliest to the Ludwig party of anybody. But Bay Hill, this field, that amount of pressure, the demands on the approach game. What is he doing here? What is they just stealing money from people at plus 1800. That’s just theft by sports book. Like if you’re, if you’re a sucker and

You’re going to bet Ludwig, don’t make it a Bay Hill. That’s just, that’s it. That’s just don’t bet Ludwig at Bay Hill at plus 1800. It doesn’t make any sense. Yeah. I love, I love over in, in DFS. He, he did write out well for me. He does have a lot of tools.

We can’t knock the guy, but Jesus 18 to one. So short. I mean, he’s, still continuing to show some of the flaws in his game that need to be worked out. I’m not saying he’s not going to compete, but 18-1 for an outright seems like you’re getting robbed. Robbery,

And especially we just mentioned three guys that we like better at longer odds. So there you go. You heard it from both of us. Ludwig is too short, but I agree with you on the DFS front. We’ll cover that. Anybody in that 30-50-1 range that you’re in love with? Willie Z. Yes.

Willie Z, baby. 30-1. 30-1. I love it. This is actually a range that I like a lot of guys. But Willie Z, look at his approach game. You look at the well-rounded game that he’s brought back. I had a lot of questions about what he was going to look like post-surgery. Uh, he’s,

He’s shut me up and the introduction of the long putter, he’s got what is a very consistent, very smooth, very straight putting stroke. Now he’s actually starting to gain strokes, putting every single week. Uh, this dude is absolutely dangerous at this point. And so, uh, I think he’s had, uh, three,

Three straight top tens. Um, like I said, I’m having tech difficulties. I didn’t have all the top, all of his, uh, placements written down but I know I know he’s had a hell of a run since he uh since missing his first cut back which was to be expected knocking the dust

Off so he’s uh he’s definitely very very live this week and I really like that number on him I mean speaking of which to kind of use that as an encouraging sign for anthony kim we talked about anthony kim coming back with live and he played terrible and what do you

Expect the dude hasn’t played competitive golf in over a decade He shot 76, 76, 74, lost by, what, 33 strokes to the winner, Joaquin Neiman. I think, Anthony. Did it last? Yeah, it did last, yeah. Can I get one of those big checks? I’ll give a shit. I’ll take one of them.

Yeah, Anthony Kim’s going to be fine. It’s just like everyone wants to rag on him. It’s like, oh yeah, he looks different. It’s like, yeah, the dude’s lived a hard 12 years since we saw him looking all youthful at the Masters and competing there and Yeah, it’s like, give the guy a break.

He came back and played his first competitive round in more than a decade, and yeah, he played terrible compared to everybody else, but let the guy get his feet under him. I think he’ll be fine, just like Willie Z’s fine now that after he missed the cut, we ragged on him.

He moved on. He got better. That’s what happens when you play a lot of competitive golf. You get better at it. Yeah, four years ago, man, I used to look like Zac Efron. Then I met and started hanging out with you, and now look at me. So… but for real, yeah.

AK is going to be just fine. And I thought the, I thought the most telling thing about it was his, him just kind of taking it in stride. Like as cocky as that guy is, he was like, look, I didn’t play well. I learned from it. I’m trust me. I think his,

I think his social media always saying I’m here to, I’m here to beat their asses. And I firmly believe he’ll figure out a way to do it. And yeah, this is just the road back. So. Anyways, not to segue too much into – I just wanted to throw that out there because we

Mentioned Willie Z. We’re both huge Willie Z fans. We’re both huge Anthony Kim fans. Let these guys coming back get their feet under them. Let them take their own journey here. If he sucks all year, then we can say, hey, Anthony Kim wasn’t ready to come back. Probably shouldn’t have.

But for Willie Z’s sake, I love him at 30 to 1. What a ball striker. What a ball striker. That dude’s an absolute maniac with long irons. And that’s what we’re looking for here. Another guy that’s been on a real heater. is our guy Jake Knapp, 50-1. Love it.

Would you like him at 50-1 or Minwoo at 40-1? Because Minwoo, I love Minwoo in DFS, but I think 40-1 is paying him a little too much respect for all the holes in his game. So I definitely don’t. I wrote both of them up back-to-back. They’re two of my favorite plays this week.

Minwoo did exactly what I said he was going to do last week. I said, the worse it gets, the better Minwoo is going to do. And the worse it got, the harder it got, Minwoo rose to the top. And I’m saying if he had had that, I think it was the second round,

If he had played just a smidge better that second round, we’d be looking at another outright call for the show because he was right there. And I do think that this is an even better setup for him. And I think you and I talked a little bit about that, in my opinion.

I know you don’t agree necessarily, but I think Minwoo, we’re looking for a grinder. We’re looking at a guy that can get scrappy and get up and down and scramble well. And that’s Minwoo on a normal day. And then you look at what Minwoo has been doing the last few rounds.

He catapulted to the best value in the modeling that I run, saying that like, Dollar for dollar, Minwoo is your best value option given the current form that he’s in. So I’m going to keep riding the hot hand with Minwoo. Definitely think that he’s in play this week. And then Jake Knapp,

I wrote a bunch about him. You can read it in my column, but I’ll let Bo talk about Jake Knapp live time. I mean, Jake Knapp is just hot right now. He is so hot right now, like Hansel. The dude just bombs the ball, and bombers get a huge bump here.

He looks like Mansell. Wait till you read my article. Here’s the first line about Jake Knapp. Jake Knapp, he’s so hot right now. Love it. He looks just like him, too. He’s got the long, flowing blonde mullet. He’s got the dirt stash. He looks goofy, but he’s so hot right now.

Off the tee game is incredible. His approach game is not usually his strength, but he’s hot. Like he’s, he’s feeling those irons now and he’s got a really solid short game. He obviously likes playing on Bermuda because last week we didn’t think he was a good fit for PGA national.

He ripped that place apart and this guy’s length is going to be an asset for him. If he can keep those irons going the way he is, this place is going to bend its knee to him because that’s the kind of golfer, like Scottie Scheffler, like Bryson won here.

This guy is like refined Bryson DeChambeau. Like prime Bryson DeChambeau just overcame his lack of short game because he was so good at flushing it and sticking it close and just making birdies on par fives out of nowhere. This guy never saw a par five he couldn’t birdie or eagle.

And Jake Knapp is on his way to being that same type of player, just with a better short game. So there’s no reason why a 29-year-old rookie that we already won with would do it again. At 50-1, that’s stupid. Yeah, you’re getting no argument from me. The only thing I’d throw on

There is while you’re at the window getting your betting slip, go ahead and get the future for his outright at Augusta, where he’ll be playing. Oh, yeah. He fits that place. 130-1. And he fits that place perfectly. Might as well get a number on PGA Rookie of the Year, too,

Because I don’t think anybody’s going to touch this kid for that. No, it already locked. Once he won at Mexico, it was over. That was curtains on the whole race. And all the things I said about Kurt Kidiana last year, long hitter, right to left ball flight, and great with long irons,

And great at scrambling around the greens. All those things are Jake Knapp this year. And so, no, he’s not 250 to one, but he shouldn’t be. This dude’s on such a heater. He’s getting the respect he deserves. And Kurt Kitayama is here at 55 to one. I like him too because the

Course fit didn’t go away. Kurt Kaniyama is in good, solid form right now. The tougher, the better. We played him at the PGA last year where he got fourth. We play him every time there’s going to be just nasty conditions because the dude’s so good at grinding. 55-1 is, I think,

A little shorter than I expected, even for a defending champion. But this field is so much stronger than it was last year from top to bottom. I think it’s the right number for Kurt, and I still like him enough to win here, even if it’s just a half unit bet, to say, hey,

We understand that it’s still a good fit for you here. Like, all the same shots are there. All the good vibes are there, of course. He has that red Arnold Palmer sweater in his trophy case at home. There’s nothing better than that. Coming back to the place where you took down the

House in front of four of the top five golfers in the world, shocked the world. Give me any reason at all to not play Kurt Kitayama again this week. Not a lot of argument from me. I would probably be more comfortable seeking out a, top 10, top 20 number.

I just think that it’s, it’s not that I don’t think he’s a good fit because I do. Can I interrupt you real quick? I just got an update. Kirk Kitayama is 75 to one and his top 10 number is plus five 50. Yeah. I like both of those 75 is better.

But, but what I was going to say, I don’t necessarily want to take back what I was saying though. I think that, it’s a good fit for him. We went over that ad nauseum. I, but I think people probably underestimate to a point how difficult it is to win

A tournament back to back, especially this tournament, especially with this field. Not to say that Kurt isn’t a grinder and can’t get it done. I definitely, we witnessed it last year, but I think that would be a hell of a feat for him to do it.

But I think getting in that top 20, top 10 is almost a sure thing. So. I can’t argue with that. Anybody long shots? Long shots are long shots here for a reason. This is a sharp field full of very, very good players at the top that I expect to win.

But if there is a Kurt Kitayama in the midst at, let’s say, longer than 80-1, is there anybody you have your eye on? Nick Taylor at 130-1 and Sammy Valamaki at 200-1 are the two I’m looking at. I don’t have a whole lot of good reason to play either of them here.

Sammy’s got an ultra-high ball play. He’s a left-to-right player. I definitely am worried about Brian with the wind with him. But I will say… everything that I have said about Sammy Valamaki in the last two, three weeks still holds true. He is an elite approach player, a hell of a ball striker,

Very good with the putter. We saw that we’ve, we’ve already seen it in action. And so I definitely will keep lining up to throw a little bit of money at him, especially when he’s in triple digit odds. I think that that’s still a value on this guy, especially in this field. So,

Outright might be a stretch, but you can definitely get some really good numbers on a top 20, top 10 with that. And I definitely think that that’s in his wheelhouse this week, regardless of the weather. So kill me, kill me for doing this. This is a faux pas in the golf betting industry,

But last week’s winner, very similar course, despite the conditions being vastly different. Austin Eck wrote 90 to one. There’s something wrong with that because Austin Eckhart looked really good. All four rounds, four rounds, sub 67, uh, hot. Like this guy from T to green is nails. He’s got that. He’s got the length.

He’s got the ball flight. We’re looking for 90 to one for me. That’s us. That’s as deep as I want to go in this tournament for outrights. But his top 10 number is crazy. His top 20 number is crazy. Throw a quarter unit on Austin Eckrode. Just because he won last

Week doesn’t mean he’s prohibited from winning this week. The courses are so similar. They’re in the same region. They have the same grass. Just because he got a little bit of rain and Austin Eckrode took advantage better than everybody else in the softer conditions, that shouldn’t prevent anybody from coming back to back.

Because we saw Jake Knapp. We didn’t expect Jake Knapp to compete last week, but he did, despite drastically different courses with drastically different scoring conditions. I mean, who’s to say that Austin Eckro can’t compete again this week, despite it being tougher and with a better field? No pushback from me.

He was trending well. He modeled well. And then he showed up. So there’s, there’s really nothing in his game right now to lead you off of him. Other than if you want to play, like if you want to go down narrative street where you can’t win back to back or you can’t. Yeah.

That, that would be the only thing to deter me is what kind of a, what kind of a winning hangover might he have? But, but I still think to Bo’s point, he’s the same player he was last week. And it’s a similar skillset. I think last week, think last week there was a

Little more emphasis on off the tee than there is here in terms of accuracy and distance etc but um right I i definitely I can’t I can’t blame you for one about him I think he’s in good form and he’s he’s showing he’s here to stay so all right uh let’s see

What we have here let’s uh try not to slam any trunks I believe I was victorious over you in a very close race last week in the dfs contest uh after friday I thought I was gonna win every damn tournament I was in until yeah tip of the cap to me

For my incredible friday followed by a nightmare saturday because if not well let’s just say that if not for adam svenson who’s dead to me now shout out to all our canadian fans adam svenson scored 28 points for me, missed the cut after a Friday 74, where he was a minus one

After the first round. I’m thinking, Oh, I got this in the bag. I got a bunch of six out of six lineups. And then Adam Svensson shits the bed, shits all over himself, shoot 74 on Friday to miss the cut. And I was five points short of $2,500 in DFS in a DFS

Tournament because Svensson scored 28. Everybody else in my lineup scored 81 plus and, So I lost by five points, and all I needed was anybody, literally anybody, to make the cut in that sixth spot to win every damn tournament I was in with that lineup. So, Svensson, you are dead to me.

Where was I going with this? Yeah. Yeah. The problem is on Saturday, everybody else in my lineup decided to not do the right direction on moving day. Like they all went down. So I went from, I think, $3,000, $4,000 in projected winnings to $45 after Saturday. That was my weekend. Yeah,

For anybody who thinks that we make this stuff up, because it’s happened to both of us a couple times in the last six months. I got receipts. One guy. One guy ruins it for elephants. Friday night, going into the weekend, and I said to Bo, I’m like, well, you fucked up again.

You never send it out before the weekend. I was excited because I was like, hey, man, if Svensson was not terrible, then I would be really sitting pretty here. But I knew that with a five out of six, I wasn’t going to climb any farther. Yeah, that’s true.

And I was bummed about that because if Svensson had somehow made the cut, I don’t care what he shoots on the weekend because he’s still going to score a few points. And that was the difference. That was the only difference between me winning $45 and me winning $2,500. That’s how crazy volatile

The DFS streets are now. With that being said, let’s not slam any trunks at Bay Hill this week. Cheers to you. It looks like we’ve returned to normal pricing. Yeah, that was a interesting two week period that we were in there. Yeah, so we got Scotty 11 3 Rory 10 6

Patrick 10,000 flat. And then Victor and Xander, pretty underpriced, sub 10. Ludwig, way overpriced, but still a good buy at 9.5. Jordan Spieth, 9.4. Sam Burns, 9.3. Max Huma, 9.2. Colin Morikawa, you haven’t talked about yet, 9,100. And our guy, JT, 9,000. Who are the leverage plays? Because… The ownership, I think,

Should be spread out this week with all these top dogs probably going to score a lot of points. It’s spread out, and you’re going to have to carry this a little on the ownership just because my modeling is on my laptop. But I think the leverage up there, at least from memory,

Was going to end up being Patrick Cantlay. If I remember right, he was coming somewhere sub 16%, which strangely enough, there is a lot of rostership in this 9900 and up range, especially in the strength of a field. It certainly looks like a lot, a lot, a lot of people are

Starting at the very top with Rory and Scotty. If I had to say something there, I like all, I like the three guys I just named and then I like Oberg. for DFS purposes. So those are my four that I’m going to play in that upper tier. And frankly,

I don’t necessarily care about the rostership. This is a no-cut event. So I want the guys that are going to score, well, a moderately no-cut event. I want the guys that are going to score the most possible points, and those four are leading in that metric. Yeah, that’s a complete agreement.

I’m pulling up ownership right here real quick. So keep talking. You got You got any favorites, like scoring points-wise? Because betting on this is going to be tricky, but I think it’s pretty clear who’s going to score the most DFS points here. Do you have any leans there?

I tend to think that it’s Scottie. I really think that Scottie, if that putter shows up even a little bit and we avoid a couple of bogeys, if we could just keep him from giving back – three, four, five bogeys every couple days. We get a guy who’s going to

Be in probably the mid-100s, even in a lower scoring event. I think Scotty is probably the play here from a point scoring perspective. Rory historically is one of the most prolific DK scorers. So I wouldn’t rule him out either. I just think that some of the questions you brought

Up in the betting segment, especially around the short irons and the wedge game with Rory, those are the scoring, like not necessarily scoring, but the saving clubs this week. And I just was not super impressed with what he was able to do with them on an easier course. Yeah. So.

That’s where I’m at with those guys. Those are my two picks, though, to be top scorer, I think. I think. I’m still trying to favorite enough guys so it gives me the ownership numbers here. Yeah, I think I like Victor here because he’s a birdie-making machine. He averages 90 fantasy points per week.

Scotty, of course, 112 is his average average. That’s insane. That’s more than anybody by a long shot. Distance second place would be Ludwig Oberg. So those are my two favorite guys for DFS in this upper tier. And honestly, it’s great because Ludwig’s getting almost no love from what I can tell.

Is there anything about Ludwig that kind of worries you? Same thing that we talk about every week. I will say this for him. These are much larger targets, so hopefully… Well, we want him to miss small, even if it’s a large target. I’m okay with him missing large,

As long as he’s on the green, because he’s not particularly gifted at the wedge game yet either, so… He’s really good though. I agree with that. Good. And his off the tee game, actually like we poked, we poked a little fun at him early season,

But his off the tee game is pretty stout. He hits, he hits a fair, and really he’s got, he’s got enough length with any of the longer clubs that the force layups, even he should be, he should be at the max distance. You can get out of it, giving himself shorter looks. So,

I really do like him in DFS. I don’t know that he wins outright, but he, he represents a good leverage point. Cause to Bo, what both said, I’ve got him tracking around 13 and a half percent roster ship, which is by far the lowest this year. Yeah. I have him at 18%,

Which is fine because I’m pulling up Scotty at 24 Rory at 27 Patrick can’t lay 16%. That’s an exploitable ownership percentage. And then Victor and Xander both at 17. Ludwig at 18%. That’s pretty good. I think we can deal with that, especially in a limited field event like this.

It’s not as inflated as you would think. Jordan Spieth, 14.8% projected roster shift. That is sexy. That might be the one. Jordan Spieth, 9,400 and leveraged. Oh, baby. what’s really nice about that speed move uh and why part of what got me so high on him I i think he fits I

Think it makes a ton of sense and I can go speed collins speed thomas speed um thomas is another one jt 9 000 flat 12.9 percent yeah so if you stack if you were to start with speed and thomas it allows you to play some of these chalkier lower plays too.

Like you can get away with them playing Jake Knapp. You can get away with going to Adam Hadwin that we’ll get to that are chalkier plays in the lowers. But yeah, Spieth, Morikawa and Thomas are really good starting spots for me. Willie Z is creeping up there in roster ship.

I thought maybe we were going to get one more week where we were going to get some leverage out of Willie Z, but that’s not looking to be the case. So he, I’ll probably be equal to field, but I don’t think I’m going to be overweight on Willie Z. Yeah,

I think he’s at 17% right now. So I think I’ll match up to 20%. I’m not going to get overexposed. That was what really won me a lot of money last week was not being overexposed to Eric Cole, who missed the cut dead last. He just was so bad.

Despite being every bit the favorite that he should have been, he played like So not being overexposed to a favorite guy, even if he’s your favorite guy, is really smart play because you’re going to have a finite player pool, especially in this event where there’s 69 guys to play from.

I’m probably going to have between 15 and 20 in my player pool to build 50 lineups out, and I’m not going beyond that. And I’m not going to have any more than 30% on anybody because Eric Cole things could happen. Like you could have 30, you could have 50% Scotty

Scheffler and Scotty might go out there and just bomb. It’s very unlikely, but it could happen. You don’t want to get overexposed to anybody and in DFS golf, because it, it works against you in so many ways because golf is so variable. You never know who’s going to have a really bad week.

And again, you might you might it gives you the chance to put more players in at a 10 to 15 20 percent who might pop off like that’s that’s what that’s where I got to extra jake knapp lineups last week just because I knew he was going to score dfs

Points it was the thing I was like I don’t love betting on jake knapp because I don’t know how he’s going to react to his first win But I wanted a piece of him in DFS. I ended up getting up to 17% on Jake Knapp last week.

And that won me a lot of money because the dude was nails again. And that’s kind of the lineup building secret is don’t overexpose yourself to any one golfer because you’re depriving yourself of more chances to get somebody who’s a little more leveraged down the board that can score just as many,

If not more points than the guy that is supposedly the favorite. What do you think about that? There’s so much to unwrap there. No, I agree that. I agree with the strategy you’re talking about. I think the one thing that stood out to me that’s going to be a lot different

For me this week is I’m actually going to be probably one of my broader player pools. And it’s just you and I just approach tournaments like this differently. I play a lot more tournaments in lower dollar entry or a lot more entries in lower dollar tournaments is what I was trying to say.

Just to allow me to get the exposure. or at least attempt to get the exposure correct and build like the most optimal things I can with the most people that I want to get fit into the lineup. So just a little different. Most weeks were flip-flopped, but this week I’ll be heavy.

I like it. Let’s see. Where are we at? Eights. Cameron Young. I’m not a believer in Cameron Young. Sorry. Yeah. I still watch him miss fairways, still watching him miss greens, and this is not a place to fuck around and find out, I don’t think. No, especially when your putting is so bad.

So unbelievably bad. Yeah, so I’ll take a pass on Cam Young, especially at his projected. Last I looked, Cam Young had something like approaching 22% projected. Yeah, it’s still around 20%, so yeah. Here’s an idea. I like Jason Day in DFS. At 3% or 4% projected roster ship. At 8,200.

This guy’s got some upside. 86 average. Three top tens. He’s made five out of six cuts. The one miscut was just kind of a fluky thing. Of course, he usually loves. Other than that, he’s looked extremely solid. And grinder? Nobody grinds like Jason Day. Nobody grinds like Jason Day.

Yeah, Jason Day is on my short list, too, for that range. Not going to get any argument from me, especially when you look around at the guys that are getting more traction. You know, Hideki, I think I’m horrible at calling Hideki. I’ll just say that out loud. Yeah, me too.

But I don’t think – this just doesn’t feel like a Hideki course to me. And he really is starting to get a lot of traction. Tom Kim, what have you done for me lately? Sanjay M, same. Tagala. Yeah. not this is not a the gala course I don’t think yeah

The gala is intriguing because he’s only rating out about 10 so that’s that’s maybe a sprinkle or two so he’s the gala with his upside is scoring but he’s not a grinder he’s not a scrambler I think he’s got a good shirt he’s got a good short game but what’s

That I think I take henley over the gala I think oh yeah fits better and and at least last I looked they were really similar projections um so yeah I think I think I’m with you 100 on day I think henley is a better leverage opportunity than the gala um and then the

Only other guy that I really want to play in this range honestly is I’m going to keep going back to pavone uh just my guy My God, this guy is so hot right now. He’s on fire. I just don’t get it. He’s just so consistent.

I mean, he hasn’t been outside of the top. I don’t know. He’s got more top 10s than I can count on my small screen that I’m looking at right now. One, two, three, four, five, six, seven. Seven top 10s in the last calendar year. His worst finish this month

Was last week at Cognizant for 28th. 28th is not bad. He is 39th at the Amex, but fifth at the World Tour Championship, seventh at the Sony, won the Farmers, third at Pebble Beach. He’s just unbelievably consistent. I love it. Which is all you need at 7,900. A guy who’s unbelievably consistent,

But also has the upside to win the tournament. Yeah, that seems like the right spot to be in. And he’s not chalky compared to Chris Kirk and Corey Connors right below him. Who I’m a full fade on both. Thank you. Thank you. Zero percent. Same. Same. And especially because right

Around the corner from them, we have Jake Knapp. And Siwoo. And Siwoo. I do like a little Siwoo this week. Siwoo’s Leverage City, 4%. Yeah. And I think, I think CWU carries the volatility. I think. Yes. Yeah. I think if you talk, if you talk consistency in here, what’s absolutely wild to

Me is it’s been on like is in terms of consistency, it really hasn’t mattered where we’re at. Like he’s six, six cuts this year and hasn’t finished worse than, I guess he had a 66 at the waste management, but I mean, he’s figured out his putting and that’s been

Huge for the second, a 16th, a 21st. I mean, Ben Onn at 7,600, for the consistency he’s playing with, that’s a pretty good spot. And I think a lot of people are going to be forced to choose between Jake Knapp and Ben Onn. No, they’re not. Right now,

Ben Onn and Jake Knapp are sub-15%, and the guys getting more chalk are Adam Scott and Keegan Bradley below them. And they both have less upside. Keegan’s a grinder. Adam Scott’s a good course fit. But Ben Onn and Jake Knapp are playing out of their minds right now.

I got zero interest in Keegan, and I saw that his roster ship is riding up, and I’m not into it at all. I would go down to Kirk Kitayama and play him, even though the roster ship will be a little higher given the defending champ.

But I do like the Adam Scott call, but no, I’m not touching Keegan. Yeah. Yeah. Harris English is intriguing for me in that range, too. He fits the course very well. It’s good history here the last couple of years. And, I mean, I don’t have to talk about Kurt Kidiam anymore.

You know I’m playing him heavy. But Nikolai Hoigard has the game to fit this course. Great iron player. Great short game scrambling. 7,200 for the guy with that upside. He might bomb out completely with the volatility. We’re talking about Siwu-level volatility with Nikolai. but 4% at 7,200 with his game,

I can picture Nikolai making some noise this week. I hope it happens, because I’m going to get 10-15% of him in my pool. Yeah, and it does turn out that he is apparently much better than his brother Rasmus, who absolutely torpedoed about 30% of my lineup. I tried to tell you, man.

I get it. I get where the intrigue was, but that was a big jump up in competition and difficulty for Rasmus. Like Nikolai has got a little bit more experience on this side of the pond. And that shows because Rasmus was a fish out of water for sure.

Hey, 60% of the time I’m smart every time. So, I mean, we’ll go with that, but no, yeah, I, I like, I like Nikolai. I think, In that range, I prefer to keep dropping down. This is kind of where I want to save some money. There’s guys in the high sixes,

Mid to high sixes that I really like. And I think that there are better course fits for Hoygard, to be honest. Like this just doesn’t feel like the spot that he’s going to really compete. Do I think he’ll be hanging around scoring some points? Yeah, absolutely. Sunday he’ll still be hanging around,

But I just, I don’t, I don’t see it. All right, let’s see. Yeah, cheaper ones down here. I got all my keys down here. Quite a few cheap ones, actually. Like I said, I like Adam Hadwin. I think he’s picking up a little bit of steam, but I think that this is a

Decent course fit for Hadwin. You don’t have to go super low. All you really got to do is keep yourself safe. Don’t give strokes back. Make birdies when you can. Be accurate. Those things are more Adam Hadwin than these lower scoring shootout type events. It just feels like a fit for Hadwin.

I’m going back to EVR. I i I said it in our show last week he should have he should have played better the earlier rounds because you know when things softened up this dude was five years birdied for seven of his first eight holes on sunday uh unbelievably hot but just

Got up to choose too slow of a start yeah but it just turns out that like maybe like the van ryan that we talk about week on week Maybe that little branch did not find very much water at PGA National. That was becoming a thing of the past, man.

I mean, last week, eighth before that, he’s rating out in the top five every single week. And even I said it last week, I’m like, OK, this is the week I’m going to jump off Van Royen, which means he’s probably back in. And so I have nothing against him because he’s

Been proving me wrong all season. And maybe this is his year to shut everybody up and win some things. And then Minwoo Lee right there. I’ve already talked about him. 6,600 for Minwoo Lee is insanity. 5,500 for Nick Taylor is insanity too. Also playing super hot. Like there is some serious

Value down here in these sixes. and Val Machi all the way. Van Royen and Lee are both over 10% projected roster ship down here, which be mindful to not be overexposed to the chalky cheap guys because they are volatile. But yeah, you definitely don’t want to leave them out of your pool completely.

That’d be crazy. Well, they don’t necessarily like to me, part of what that says is that those are the last man in for a lot of people and people and they recognize the names. Well, cause they’re the same price and they’re the same roster and they’re low tier. So to me,

That says people are walking in with probably something like 7,000 left to spend and that’s where they’re falling. Um, which, yeah. So I think that’s, I think that’s what you’re looking at. So if you want to keep going down just a little bit, you do have guys like Sammy Valamaki are down there.

Mackenzie Hughes has been playing good. It’s not the worst play on earth. Um, Even getting way down to the bottom, Grayson Murray actually has had some pops. There’s some guys down here that you absolutely can play and feel confident in. Those guys do not include Webb Simpson, C.T. Pan, or Adam Svensson.

Do not play Adam Svensson. He’s dead to me. He cost me so much money last week. Yeah, the two guys at the bottom of my list for rankings are Seamus Power and Grayson Murray and McKenzie Hughes, but that’s limited rounds available for the scope I’m looking at, so I’ll give them a pardon

Because recent form does play a part in the modeling. Yeah, no Webb Simpson, though. That’d be crazy. All right, who’s winning this damn thing? I mean, we’ve talked a lot about these long shots, and in the expensive guys, but we expect one of those guys to win,

But who is actually going to win this? I think Jake Knapp. I think Jake Knapp is going to win. Wow. That would be something. That would be an epic call. We can clip this one just like we clipped last year. Shout out to Jake Knapp, who’s from Anaheim.

Shout out to the 714 down there in SoCal. I love the duck emblem on his sleeve. That’s so awesome. Yeah, he’s sponsored by the Anaheim Mighty Ducks, which is awesome. I think I’ll go with Victor Hovland. I I’ve been, I’ve been enamored with him all week. I think he’s, he’s just,

He hasn’t played a lot stateside. He hasn’t, we haven’t seen what kind of form he’s in because he hasn’t played a lot. And that for me, this course, he was, he was right there last year with his short game. So much, so much improvement has happened. His,

His long game from T to green is green is so good. It’s so insanely good. And I, a combination of a grinder who can score and annihilate par fives. All these boxes just lead me to one guy and it’s Victor Hovland. So that’s, that’s going to be the guy I

Expect to win at 14 to one off. I’ll take that all the way to the bank. First round leader and winning score. I’m going to go a little bit worse scoring. I think it’s going to be eight under par, which is one shot worse than last year, because I think that wind

On Friday and Saturday is going to really mess some dudes up. Yeah, I can see that. I think it’s probably 9 or 10. I’ll go 10 under. I think it’s not going to be the lowest scoring it’s ever been, but I think it’s going to be lower scoring than what you think.

That’s right around the average, isn’t it? Yeah. I mean, we’ve had some really high-scoring ones, though, too. I mean, 5 under. Yeah, Scottie was 4 or 5. But Scottie was, like, one of only four guys under par for the tournament that year. It was brutal that year. First-round leader, though, Jordan Spieth.

I love it I love it I think first round leader is going to be jordan spieth I’m with you on that one he’s going to come out like gangbusters I was so so close to saying jordan’s beef that my outright also but yeah what a story that would be jake knapp rookie

Of the year just lock it in just lock it I’m I but for the record before we log off sign off I’m very very split like I i almost said jordan’s piece so those are those are my all right I’m adding him to the player pool right now because I

Just love Jordan Spieth so much. I mean, I’m always talking about how great he is. It’s Jordan Spieth week, baby. I guess so. All right. Thank you for joining us next week. I believe it’s the Players Championship, which it’s a major. TPC Sawgrass, the Island Green. That’s going to be another good one.

Another barn burner. Join us next time. Make sure you like and subscribe in between media. We’re sports. We are lifestyle. We’re in between. Enjoy it. We’ll catch you next week.