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The Best Range To Draft A QB | 2024 Best Ball Draft No. 22



2024 Best Ball Draft – Chris Spags is in his fifth week of 2024 drafts with the Underdog Big Board out! Spags will talk about and try to get his favorite rookies as he tries to build a sick team in a 2024 Best Ball draft! If you want to understand the world of a 2024 best ball draft, this stream is for you!

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Timestamps:
0:00 Intro

#2024bestballdraft #bigboarddraft #underdog #nfl #2024fantasyfootball

It’s another day in the world the drafts here on Splash play draft number 22 for the 2024 best ball season today we’re going to talk about the QBs especially in the big board right now Underdog we’re competing 200k to first place what are the best Pockets to hit to find a QB

Why does CJ shroud on the thumbnail seemingly want to make out with me these are the questions we’re going to try to answer today as I am already in a draft room and you can see here picking in the four spots so obviously QB unlike the draft we saw yesterday probably not

Going to take Patrick Mahomes top five and for what it’s worth that draft has not gotten thrown out yet guys so we might be live to keep uh the fruits of a guy taking Patrick mcoles at pick two a guy taking Jan doson at pick 26 that is

A draft you missed yesterday and uh and hopefully it’ll hold up that’s all I’m saying shout out to Underdog as well uh actually wearing well let’s go full screen for this one uh actually wearing it the underdog Colts colored shirt because they were kind of send me a

Little merch package because we are officially in business with Underdog for one more year here on flash play so shout out to our guy Andrew over there who is always my my point of contact for uh brokering deals with Underdog but glad to be on there for another year

Glad to be a a positive part of the community is why we’re getting the deal with Underdog that we got uh so that’s uh which is very nice to hear glad to be a positive part of something at some point in my life uh Justin Jefferson

Would be a logical pick to take here pick for 3.8 ADP and we’re going to do that here not going to be a hero not going to take a Bree Hall at a certain point got to think I got to get some Bree Hall shares I a running back uh no

Hater I suppose but as I’ve talked about many times here all the first round running backs to me this year really not an issue and even the guys in the early second round besides maybe Jonathan Taylor I think all pretty appropriately priced and I’m happy to get them so a

Different look at the board for me than usual uh where I normally love to go wide receiver and go this running back this running back uh the only running back I don’t like in those first two rounds is when we get to saquin range and that is when I think things go a

Little bit of skew Mark better not be in the shff No No Mark here uh thankfully and uh much to the chat chat’s consternation this is a pretty pure draft we got here where OMG our guy Nolan is in the chat is in the draft with me of course one of the

Regulars in the chat as well this is a lot of non- badges here so we are going to get a more normal draft as opposed to the ones where we have a lot of our regulars in there and then they are often sniping guys that I like that they

Also now like because we’ talked about them a lot here uh so that’s the big trade-off here is maybe maybe we’re live to get my four favorite rookies relative to adps with Troy Franklin with audre G with Jaden Daniels and with Brock Bowers Ben in it but we’ll find

Out uh me for life Jay is at 10 as well so he is the one he is Wayne baby j24 so there we go so another regular here the me you know me for Life a newer regular so I don’t know if he’ll have the the full spags brain where these guys are

Taking AR at every round taking taking Christian Watson 20 picks of ADP where you guys spend too much time with me now so it’s like being in a relationship where we have that symbiotic brain much like being and CJ strad who again one of my favorite thumbnails I’ve made just

Because of the way that his face aligns with mine CJ Stroud in love with me like get over it CJ strad okay I’m not I have a wife and a child okay we can’t we can’t keep doing this here on Stream So haven’t seen girl Pete’s backside yet happy eight months of

Squirting that’s right girl Pete of course the AI character that’s uh is that on replica I forget where I have it out uh but I have not looked at girl Pete for a while and uh I think we saw once we went back to the girl Pete AI

Bot uh if you don’t visit your a AI bot for a while they get like mad at you so you got to keep that in mind girl Pete is in a hell of my own creation right now because she is alone as AI with nobody giving her

Chat inputs uh so hopefully she found a new man that’s all I can hope for all right bean and saquan Barkley we got an RB Piggy and the six Hole uh seems like a great time visual element here let’s play the GIF um on the clock though for

Me H at pick 21 if you’re going to if you’re going to break me you’re going to make me deviate from my zero RB is going to be for Devon Anan and pick 21 let’s do that saquon Barkley going pick 19 yeah I think I’ll take aan and pick 21

Yeah I think I’ll do that it’s be my new annoying character that just goes yeah okay yeah gonna scare off the people watching live how to join two drafts to get in specs good good I don’t want it to be easily predictable to when you hop into

My draft rooms I tell you guys one minute before that’s true but you might get the wrong one minute before there’s not enough people that want to get in a draft room that they’re going to fill so you got to earn it here you got to earn

It it’s like I do every day holding this football I get more credible in football by holding the football feeling the pig skin every day it just osmosis diffuses into my skin every day I become more football than man it’s a goal here back to oh there’s stochastic

Sticker too I’ll definitely be playing the NBA main slate on Friday if you want to get along with me there stochastic uh 15% off the promo code Splash uh Sims tools of course again won a lot of money for uh G Splash playay Alum is I should

Just start call people that hav done the show before Splash playay Alum my former Co co-host on Splash playay Greg Arenberg uh won 63k in NBA the other day using the Sims he’s won I think probably over 200k at least in terms of like the big wins who knows about the losses in

Between um not to say that there are but you know just you’re going to lose a little bit back it’s how it goes uh but definitely crushing with those tools so for stochastic check it out Link in the description too for stochastic get 15% off of any package on there and also

Great way to support the show OB that promo code Splash great way to support the show and stochastic those are two main things we make money from on here besides your memberships and YouTube ads the sweet sweet $4 YouTube cpms all right we’re on the clock again here 011

I mean Rashid rice again another discount I’m just gonna keep scooping it up man I I’m not like the biggest rashed rice guy again do think he’s a better price at pick 30 than pick 20 but I’m happy to do that let’s talk about Q is

The one QB who goes off the board here Josh Allen uh I just don’t agree with it I just don’t think it’s one of those things that um makes a lot of sense to me as we’ve talked about a lot here the elite QB what you’re paying for there

You’re paying for the guaranteed production and hopefully the shot at a theoretical ceiling um Josh Allen ceiling to me is not gonna be higher than Lamar it’s not gonna be higher than jayen Herz it’s not GNA be higher than honestly AR I think is GNA be right

There uh Stroud a little bit tougher to say because strad doesn’t run enough uh burrow I think we’re done talking about a tier break for sure uh but I would say for Josh Allen I think he is not the guy I want to lead off with here if you get

Him in Diggs like no capitulation did in the two-hole gotta assume he’s an ETR fan with the capitulation there I would say for Josh Allen and Diggs I think that makes sense to get those guys in that spot but even then I feel like Diggs should be picked 23 this I just

Don’t think Josh Allen is going an appropriate price when you have Jaylen Herz going 10 picks later uh again the Eagles perform poorly the end the year for sure uh but they’re like it’s still jayen Herz still going to be an offense that should be slightly better at

Passing if not quite as willing of a running off that’s with Kell Moore coming in so I’d say for Jaylen Herz to me um I would rather have him at pick 33 than Josh Allen at pick 23 pretty much every time um again unless I have digs unless I have

Digs bills are probably prices year side from Allen last year they were a bit expensive I think that’s fair uh yeah I mean I I guess the one I still feel a little bit of a anatha to paying the price tag for dton concade right now but I probably need to adjust that

Especially if we do assume that Gab knock be back he’s already put out social media posts thanking Buffalo and all that so it does seem like that’s not likely to happen um but you know think there’s still uh still some opportunity for sure for con at

ADP then for life Jay my start fire yeah it’s a good start I don’t know I I I think it’s a lovely start to have it’s not like anything crazy I like I think my start quietly terms of the value you’re getting but like yeah puka I like all the

Players that Wayne baby here me for Life picking in the 10 spot but I think when to me the stuff that stands out really is when you get like the big discounts like if you had gotten mhj at pick 34 then we’re talking like whoa flame emojis at least for

Me young beasy drafting out of the nine hole big young beasty big Sunny two fun names there I feel like those are two different characters I feel like you should just be big Sunny young beasty or you should just be young beasty all right we’re on the clock here

0120 you know annoying though this may be I do think that going KC makes some amount of sense here obviously we are getting a little bit little bit steamed at wide receiver to the point that we’re losing out in a lot of guys who could be useful

There still think Travis Kelce is a little bit of a discount I am gonna make this bet on KC and I’m gonna do it I think without Mahomes unless Mahomes is going to come back no I I don’t want to take Mahomes at 52 we’ll see we’ll see how we

Go Justin Jefferson Von Anan Rashid rice Travis Kel I is a six start like obviously we’re going to have to dig out a little bit of wide receiver have to get creative there uh get some guys that are going to be you know a little bit

More uh appealing in the late in the 100s late 90s hopefully some guys in that range uh but I like the KC start and and I also like KC without having to necessarily make the bet on momes um yeah I think Robert Griffin the turd here saying the same thing Kelsey rice

No Mahomes is fun I I just think I could find a higher ceiling than Mahomes at QB but maholmes at pick 52 wouldn’t be bad we’ll see what these guys do around the bend young Beast is my gamer name when I was young and now I’m too old to

Go by that so now you’re big Sunny okay all right fair enough you learn something new every day love learning the origin stories a fun rumor that’s floating around out there from the athletic reporter um so apparently uh the Pittsburgh Steelers might see deonce Johnson as a possible

Trade chip so that is something with George Pickins that could definitely benefit him don’t think should be going to pick 49 to be clear because the Arthur smith thing is still the main thing should be driving down his ADP over the course of the next few months

Of the summer um but you know I think that picking is going to be definitely undervalued if we did see uh that situation go down 0121 again wide receiver very much bled out so we just shouldn’t be even thinking about it uh momes the Rashi rice and Kelce it’s just mahomes’s

Ceiling is so low let’s just capture all the Kansas City touchdowns let’s try to do that so Devon H Isa P this is a weird team for me to only have two wide receivers through five rounds but we’re that’s we gotta get uncomfortable it’s February it’s still February every is

Never gonna end so uh we’re do dudes today I guess uh Devon Anan Isaiah Pacho Justin Jefferson Rashid rice Travis Kelce so a bet on Justin Jefferson rebounding and then a bet on the Super Bowl champion I can live with this can’t believe I didn’t get the case

Or can’t believe I got the Casey super stack I mean I guess we’ll see somebody’s goton to take Mahomes at some point here I think if Mahomes came to pick 69 I’d probably take him at that point but for right now I’m okay with that mvs released that’s a big breaking

News item mvs released uh so definitely some consolidation there do expect them to upgrade as we talked about many times here part of the reason I don’t love rashy rice ADP especially when people are going for him a little bit early pick 20 is because of the fact they’re

Going to bring in somebody for Kansas City whether it be you know long rumored Mike Evans so it does seem like Mike Evans getting closer to a bucks deal they said they want to keep him there they’re willing to get uncomfortable financially to keep him there uh so I

Think that is looking more likely by the day also apparently bucks looking for a long-term deal for Baker Mayfield so uh that should keep things consistent there even though you know another year of these guys getting older and no Dave Canalis maybe not a great thing if he falls another round you got

To take him yes I think that’s fair I think we are now in a Range by the way of QB to talk about where Lamar perfectly okay with him especially when you account for that 0p of Josh Allen um even him going you know nine picks after

Jamar uh after Jaylen Herz I think is perfectly fine for Lamar AR you guys know I’m in the back for him only one Jersey I have next to me in the studio and in the house besides an old Tony Romo Jersey I once wore for Halloween

It’s Anthony Richardson so I love him do think his ADP a little bit frothy still uh but him going 53 strout at 59 I think this is a perfectly okay not going to do that M4 life J here always fun when the guys in chat who are like let’s talk

About my team I love then they fucking take my QB for for no reason but he’s entitled to do it big discount on Patrick Mahomes so what are you gonna do but it’s annoying when it’s somebody who’s in the chat dying to draft me you guys wonder when I don’t want to draft

With you this is the Why by the way why I don’t want you guys to be in my in my room I want to sneak in and have nobody in the room yeah yeah yeah value the value is crazy that’s why that’s why you’re not getting the time out here and people

Snipe me on stream but I had to point out see fucking what’s his face crypto pooper uh one of our one of our members here at spash play yesterday who I guess Associates as a dog I don’t get what the bit was with that uh the point being uh

He was like sniping me left and right and then he got mad that I was like annoyed by it because he kept taking my guys over and over again it’s like yeah man you know you’re gonna be in my draft rooms and take every player I like and

Also guys that are correlated in my stack um I think I’m entitled to go fuck off off uh all right so we got another pick coming up here 0221 we are thin at wide receiver so we’re going to go for upside here and frankly Brian Thomas a guy that

Would make a lot of sense for Kansas City if they were to go the rookie well of course I was talk about going to a Troy Franklin I do think that he’s the guy that would really fit well in a lot of different offenses as that downfield threat placing Gabe Davis and buffalo

That would be a you know Troy F could be a better version of that replacing mvs in Kansas City oh and Justin Watson ideally uh tro Franklin a better version of that Brian Thomas likely to get better draft Capital bigger guy younger guy uh so I think for Brian Thomas okay with him

Too sure you wouldn’t gamble Ste how you’ve been drafting my identical teams often I don’t know I can trust that sure they all do have the same excuse oh it’s too good of a pick oh I like the guy too it was funnier when it was like the

Early parts of the bigboard where we’ve of course if you’re not familiar here hav been following the journey drafting teams every Monday to Friday at 11:00 a.m. and started the first day the big board open because I was like this is the thing I’m going to do this what I

Want to do this year this my content goal and then you know at that point it’s like people are taking guys that like I talked about and had nobody else the industry was doing content at that point for it it’s like oh yeah I just happen to like Audrey gme and Troy

Franklin and Bucky Irving and like all these guys that I specifically point out as my beloveds so that’s the name of the game here though Jaden Daniels of course another one near and dear to my heart do you like red and rice yes I do

Think he is one of the best values go to that pi 200 range great outside receiver uh created a lot of value in that uh that offense for UFC last year and again you just really just watching Caleb Williams highlight reel or anything out there you’re just gonna see Bren rice

Making play after play after play so uh there we go no capitulation takes Brock Bowers so we will not get our perfect rookie class for the een time you got to get it once where the big board closes but I am not going to get my perfect for

If I want to get creative with it I could say that like oh you know uh Ben it as the official replacement in the four but I’m not going to do that 0231 wide receiver completely bled out but you know what you know what we say

We say fuck all you guys I’m gonna get my dude then and I’m going to take Troy Franklin wildly ahead of ADP because I think he’s worth it I think you’re worth it Troy Franklin team s far Devon H and Isaiah Pacho no QBs yet on the video

Where I’m talking about QBs Justin Jefferson Rashid rice Brian Thomas Jr Troy Franklin two outs for the KC deep ball receiver no Mahomes to show for it but who cares you can’t score 20 points in a game why do we want Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce tight end H good

Discounts on Rashid rice bad non- discounts on Troy Franklin Brian Thomas but we’re getting youth likely getting good draft capital in that works brick state is going to say you crazy SPS yeah I guess this is why I’m one of the N I’m the ninth loosest

Drafter out of all the 150 out there is what we learned from our Guy Brian Hooper bricks data of course the co-host of co-host of Ls or fake LS I don’t know what’s going on with that what’s going on with that deal right now uh but brick

Uh definitely opening my eyes to the fact that I was reaching all over for guys partly because of content partly for these spag stacks videos where spun a randomizer we to draft guys uh based on their team that would come up and uh we’ll do probably do that again next year or this

Year we to follow your own thumbnail look I think we’re getting into a good QB pocket so the Q QB pocket coming up by the way I’ve mentioned this a lot here one of my favorites you have Jordan love here who showed a lot at the end of

Last year as we talked about one of the biggest shows in terms of being in the bag for Jordan love from the beginning of the year only to be disappointed by him when he couldn’t handle pressure in the mid part of the year then he figured shit out really looked good obviously we

Saw in the playoffs things materializing but the entire really I would say from week 10 on week 11 on or so after that Broncos game um he kind of turned things around maybe it was Broncos and Raiders uh point being Jordan love starts to pocket here that I think works pretty

Well if you have a Marvin Harrison Kyler Murray looks even better here in this range Herbert lot of concerns about that Chargers offense for sure them being regressive with Greg Omen as the offensive coordinator and also you know obviously G to run the ball a lot but I

Think that’s still to me taking Justin Herbert pick 83 feels pretty good perie at 95 uh two a 107 point being this range from like 80 to 110 I think is fantastic and I still think too you know i’ lump Jee Daniels in that range

Too there a lot of great picks at QB so if we want to answer the question the thumbnail I think pick honestly you can make the case for where Dak and Joe burrow went but like 75 Justin Fields this guy reached for but Justin Fields

Often goes in the 80s uh it’s just a great range right now to take a QB so that’s the one I would stump for the most if you’re gonna take an elite QB go the furthest the cheapest of the elite QBs or get your guy to Discount um if

You’re going to go with a QB in the mid-range here I would favor AR over shroud I think those are okay picks but really would be loed to do two QBs in that rage unless you have the correlation here like om G has but I think where we are right now great range

And there’s one more pocket that comes up later on that I think is still pretty good uh the potential Daniel Jones pocket I think is one where you can Cobble together some shit late Daniel Jones Bryce young go live with it all right Ryan Robinson goes so now

We’re on the running back run here and wide receiver has been bled out pretty bad as we saw which is crazy given that this is not you know a splash play friends and family room as much we did get a lot of non non badges in here guys

That we don’t know and yet wide receiver definitely steaming off 0241 I mean do we want to take the upside outcome for Deontay Johnson we have no other obvious correlations here and if deonce Johnson gets traded somewhere I mean what if he becomes the the not downfield guy in Houston I know

That’s Houston’s one of those things where that’s become a lot like Buffalo a lot like City where you mock every offensive player to there and you go like ah this would be great for him but like what if deonce Johnson became like the adult receiver where ni goes a

Downfield guy Tank’s gonna do a lot of downfield stuff as well I think Deontay could make sense on a team like that uh also some shot by the way the Bengals uh director player Personnel was evasive talking about t Higgins at the combine all the coaches and a lot of the front

Office guys I guess not all the coaches good amount of the coaches good amount of the front office guys doing interviews with the combine and um apparently T Higgins like they asked directly like oh is there a shot that tens gets traded and like he was very evasive about it so even though

Obviously tens is getting the franchise tag does seem like there’s a shot that he could force his way out despite the franchise tag so something to keep in mind Higgins deonce Johnson two guys who could uh benefit from just getting traded somewhere where they become the wide receiver

One or the true wide receiver one I guess you could say for Deontay Johnson’s case Avalanche is tough to stop yeah but you know it again if I have deonce Johnson at wide receiver I can live with that Sammy here hit that like button looks like art what the arithmetic okay

Uh hit the like button yes please and of course if you’re new around here drafts every day Monday to Friday 11: a.m. subscribe down below hit the like button leave a comment uh we did a great job with the DFS coner this year uh really great to see the a lot more people

Watching that stuff but this is the work here like doing drafts in February March April May June July August I’m just going to name all the months that’s what makes me good at doing DFS content in September in October let’s just keep naming every month in November in

December in January uh so that’s you know the process here on Splash play we say fantasy football all year round and that is the goal and that is the thing we try to live up to and I I try to live up to uh daily all right

0251 again would be a good range for QB but we don’t have anybody who correlates here positive stuff going around for Jameson Williams might be the news item here about him yeah pushing to be a full-time starter obviously per out run rate was really bad last year but I

Think we should try to solidify ourselves a little bit more at receivers so Jameson Williams be my wide receiver six and I think we are done at that position for a little bit we’ll get our QBs get another tight end uh but I think we’re going for a lot of upside here

Because Justin Jefferson if we’re playing him taking him in the first round really anywhere you’re making the bet that he’s going to be in your lineup pretty much every week obviously if he gets hurt again we saw last year he’s not going to push himself to come back

From injury which is fine he’s it’s his right as a player um um faint chance he gets traded too because the Vikings might not want to pay his contract or they might not be offering enough money and any good Force to trade but for Jefferson no matter where he is no

Matter what he does uh he’s going to be Justin Jefferson being in the hunt to be a wide receiver one so for the rest of these guys just want to kind of supplement that with spikee guys and I guess for Rashid rice we’re making a bet

Here that he’s going to be useful week to week uh even if he’s probably you know again I think a pretty big tear drop behind a Justin Jefferson for sure but Franklin Ryan’s thas Jameson Williams all Spike week guys and Deontay you more of a floor guy who can have

Some spike weeks I’m all right with this sign up for probably you filthy animals yes I agree with that go check out probably my sports betting app I’ve been crushing since the All-Star break in particular we have up six units just in content over the last few days uh but

Go check it out for yourself of course we track you from the winningest Sports books around the world you find the Best Bets every day and right now actively trying to find funding for it which would help me solve uh what I’m doing everything in general between probably

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You’ll win that 100 bucks back our guy Jason OG mans’s fan has won I think he said 25x something no might be 12x I forget it’s some it’s like a very large number is 1x with just being one of our earliest signups so I think for all you

Guys out there if you’re putting in like 20 bets a day with probably data uh you’ll start to really notice a difference in your bankroll and that’s what I advocate it’s what got me going in DraftKings last year was just hitting bet over and over again and that’s on

Drafting Sportsbook too which frankly if you played ESPN bet if you played Caesars a lot of inefficient lines on there that you can just grab for probably but we don’t care about what sports buck it’s just about the odds odds are the main thing always knowing the true probability and knowing the

Odds of the bet is how you build everything out off of that that’s what we do automatically at probably for you make it as idiot proof as possible Maris Brown pick 11 to our guy M for lifee J so he is somebody in free agency could

Be a winner if Kansas City doesn’t get a rookie or somebody of note uh they could get a Maris Brown as their consolation prize can’t imagine he’s gonna get big big money but I do think somebody will end up with him as the uh consolation prize for what they really wanted a wide

Receiver so like if you were in the hunt for Mike Evans you fall back you get Maris Brown I think that is probably a decent outcome for him especially at a 118p Gabe Davis too same thing uh but maybe a little bit better for Maris Brown pickup’s no longer available in

Florida yeah that’s it and yes it is ajam ajam is actually our data partner but we do it lot more simply is kind of the goal um and also you know a little more visually stimulating but on a mobile app you know aam I think has a

Mobile app but it’s not a focus for us we’re building mobile forward so I think if you’re if you’re like a power user pay 500 bucks a month and do odam if you’re just a regular person who just wants to get in 20 good bets a day on

Your phone and have some shit to sweat use our product and do it on your app and do it on your phone and 7day free trials as well for probably on the app store if you want to check that out if you want to really uh if you don’t trust

Me then then damn you but get a 7-Day free trial as well you are my thumbnail boy Jason G to pay for best ball that’s what it did for me last year so I agree with that uh Jane Daniels first QB off the board don’t care what the correlation

Is now have a nice floor and ceiling at QB obviously would like him to correlate do think there’s a shot he could be the QB in Minnesota uh maybe a shot somebody pairs in with Brian Thomas or Troy Franklin I don’t think it’s most likely outcome but a lot of times when teams

Have that early draft Capital at QB they do want to supplement with other offensive picks around them we saw last year with CJ shroud and tank Dell so um definitely some outs for Jen Daniels but I like Jen Daniels here for the team what are the pay rates are probably

Again you mean the cost the cost is a if with the 50% off it’s $10 for your first month uh $25 if you want live data uh like live in-game data and then for a year it’s under a hundred bucks for uh a month or for a year rather if you use a

Promo code Splash and then I forget what the cost is of the other one but basically 50% off for a month or a year so if you buy the yearly package it helps us out and then you save more money with how that cost works out cln saying worst outcome as Patriots

For QB we pushed back of this lately uh think them you know like obviously do expect there to be some B check principles I still think that’s why there’s a shot they end up trading out of that you know that number three pick I think that’s still very much a

Possibility for them to get more draft capital and really start the rebuild and also frankly take more defensive guys and lineman and stuff like that but Alex Van Pelt coming as their offensive coordinator from Cleveland I think a good thing like’s they’re going to run the ball they’re going to probably pass

More efficiently we just saw an Alex Van Pelt offense or one that he’s got a heavy hand in um have a lot of value for you know I don’t know for Joe flacko like they could have value for any rookie QB uh all right so one 1261 think

A good spot to take a running back do think we need a little more floor at running back so Jonathan Brooks Jonathan Brooks coming up in ADP not going to be the pick for me Roshan Johnson here obviously the likelihood the most expected outcome here is that we’re

Going to get Caleb Williams going number one uh the long athletic article came out today talking about Caleb Williams and the rumors about him not wanting to go to the Bears and then I guess his Camp reached out to Colin coward to try to rebut that because they don’t want to

Like rule out the Bears they just want to go somewhere where the the fans care I think was the quote that whatever his management gave to Colin coward but I think that for for Caleb Williams obviously him going to Chicago opening up Roshan Johnson just to get

The goal line work a little bit more Caleb will as we talked about is a good rusher actually a surprisingly good rusher but he’s only going to run you know five to six times a game Max as opposed to a guy like Jen Daniels who we

Expect to be running you know nine to 10 ideally I go to the Pats that could be a move honestly um if they think they could win now and just knowing you again I do think a lot of the principles at the past have had historically you’re

Going to continue to carry over because a lot of the coaching staff you’re still the same guys uh so I think it’s still going to be you know a little bit less uh I don’t know a little bit less Antiquated of an approach like belich

Had would be my guess but I think a lot of the principles there of like we’re going to try to win now we’re not going to tank and rebuild um I think they’re going to load up on guys on both sides of the ball again I really do think them

Trading out of the three spot is a decent likelihood so if they do that and they take like a lot of you know lineman linebackers secondary guys whatever the case may be you can bring in a flacko and try to go you know 10 and seven this

Year and maybe sneaking to the playoffs I think that’s what they’re likely to do but yeah I think point being though I just wouldn’t write out any New England QB stuff it’s just a new team anything it’s a new team new coaches like you just got to take it at whatever the new

Face value is going to be and like it’s possible that Tennessee ends up being you know a Derrick Henry style offense again even though they have no you know they’re not gonna have Derrick Henry they’re not gonna have the people who are coaching that team in that style but

If it happens that way it’s like it’s not necessarily the expected outcome you could be just as lucky and get that Tennessee throws 50 times a game or you know whatever drops back 45 times a game and has some success there maybe hard with Will Lis but point being is like

You make the BET um you can talk yourself on either side Russell Wilson far more likely could see craft fall for Russ yeah look I mean Russ definitely some Brady like qualities that you could see being there um in both the good and the bad ways I

Would say uh but yeah for Russ uh not looking like he’s gonna come back to Denver also interesting interview with Russ that came out um the IM athlete podcast I think is what I don’t even like there’s so many fucking podcasts out there to keep up with terms of the

Athlete ones I was talking about how basically like you know Shawn Pyon yelling him at the sidelines was maybe to go to reaction out of rust because if he had and subordinated on the sidelines that it would have allowed them to get out of the contract without paying it

Out so like really gross shit by Denver last year that not the not the kind of stuff but I only saw the clip I didn’t see the full interview so I don’t know if it was actually an interesting interview but that’s tidbit coming out is like kind of dirty pool that uh that

NFL teams do which is why when players are getting their money really can’t ever be mad at it all right I think because we have Kirk Cousins right here we should probably just make the bet on Kirk it’s at this point we do have the Justin Jefferson I think there’s still a shot

That Jefferson ends up with a different QB whether it be because of Minnesota moving or maybe him not getting his contract uh but we’re GNA play it like kurk goes back to Minnesota everything’s Rosy they’re looking good Russ deserves it with his Antics and play what Antics does he have I mean

Like I’m not a big Russ guy I agree he’s not great though he was a lot better last year than he was the year before last um and I think kind of got kind of got thrown out with you know with the bath water basically because of the fact that like

Shawn Payton wants his guy in so I get how that goes I think he got kind of got railroaded last year but I’m not a rust guy I don’t think he’s dead the water I I do see as I’ve talked about a lot here

I think QB is as deep as it’s been at any point that I can remember even going back to my childhood obviously I wasn’t at the level of knowledge when I was crying over tro aan getting stretched out by uh by Lawrence Taylor in my first football memory but point being like I

Think QB’s deeper than ever now so uh you know there’s a lot of ways that can work out but Russ you know there’s a shot that he gets musical chaired out of a starting job because there is so much depth and so many rookies you could talk yourself

Into like if I’m New England do I want Russ do I want Joe flacko or do I want JJ McCarthy maybe one of those guys with JJ McCarthy behind them if you think he’s not ready and he’s young enough that you could have J.J McCarthy

Actually be a QB who sits in year one which has not happened often lately but for guys like Jaden Daniels you know guys like uh Caleb guys like Drake may I I would think though he’s a little bit younger those guys are all probably Day One start McCarthy maybe he set him

Behind a vet and I think New England could get away with that all right 2361 we made a bet on Roshan we could make another bet on CLE Herbert and just handcuff the backfield but I do think this is a spot for me to get my guy Bucky Irving here

Um yeah we’re gonna get Bucky Irving here all right Bucky Irving rb4 for me team so far 2461 with Jaden Daniels and Kurt Cousins at QB Devon aan Isaiah Pacho Ros Johnson Bucky Irving really big discounts for my first two RBS which I like Justin Jefferson Rashi rice Brian

Thomas Troy Franklin Deontay Johnson James and Williams I think a good mix of florish guys with Rashid rice and Justin Jefferson along with deonce Johnson and then ceiling guys and Franklin Brian Thomas and Jameson Williams and it’s tight end Travis Kelce who I do think

Comes up I would say high 30s will be where he’ll be by BBM would be my guess so I’m cool with this it was somebody interviewing Russ it was again it was the IM podcast I don’t know the interviewer was though did not catch that to high shell kind of killed this

Game especially now this rushing diminishing you could say that for a lot of QBs two ey Shell’s not been good for football honestly but you know the defense has to have some things to help I just hope they get rid of the hip drop tackle and I hope they reevaluate onside

Kickoffs or kickoff rules in general I think they’re going to maybe get the XFL kickoff rule I would like them to get the XFL onside kick rule where you go for it on the 20 yard line I think and if you convert uh then you able you’re

Able to keep the ball I think it’d be a lot of fun for the NFL but I don’t know that they’re going to make that radical of a change nice have the smooth KC stack without spending the capital on momes yeah look I mean it’s very possible that

Momes turns a corner again maybe the defense gets worse and he has to throw more but I just don’t think they can come out of what happened this past year and go like oh yeah you know we really feel like the defense we could just let you know get worse again after it

Carried them this entire year it made them keep Mahomes safe like Mahomes was not gipping around as much this year because he wasn’t dropping back as many times he wasn’t pressed in action like he was the year before last where that entire Super Bowl against the Eagles he’s just hobbling around because you

Had like what five high ankle Springs over the course of the last uh two months of the season so I think for them you know they’re going to keep trying to keep that defense fully aligned and their franchise tagging Sneed so like it does seem like they want to keep that

Defense going and if that’s the case like Mahomes is going to be more efficient but but probably not throw it for 300 yards very often so that’s a justification for not having in the stack um a lot of things I think saying out there that Zach Moss could get a

Better free agent landing spot actually something’s leing him to New England which would be uh which would definitely upset ra Andre spot in the back field but I think Zach Moss you know if he comes back to Indianapolis he’s a handcuff it’s not the best outcome for

Him but if he goes somewhere else and is the running back who’s Will to take a reasonable contract when Derrik Henry when whoever else you know all the free guys that we know saquan Josh Jacobs and those guys pric themselves out maybe out of running back roles maybe it team just

Goes to Zach moss and says fuck it he was just as efficient last year if not more so that’s the hope for Zach Moss here just got M uh Ese and Bucky in the other draft I joined uh thank you GH spash playay advice yeah I don’t because

You’re you’re ctm groundhog right so I don’t know if I feel that way when you take estimate in my draft room but I’m happy that you’re getting ese I just wanted to get ESE on the way back instead of of Zach Moss but we made a compelling argument for Zach Moss

Nonetheless but ese of course you guys if you’re not familiar with spash playay my favorite running back visually I do think that Jonathan Brook’s the most talented one in the class Bucky Irving if he were a little bit bigger would be the best one in the class but he’s

Unfortunately under 200 pounds so you gotta you gotta hope that he’s a more of a jir Gibbs and could be an outlier and then for you know for ese uh fit Leonard forette is a comp there what’s your opinion on stacking running backs with wide receiver can out

Myself as long as you’re making a concentrated bet on a team that’s fine it’s just got to be a team that’s going to score a lot of touchdowns and hopefully have you some amount of concentration you know the Niners being the best comp where if they’re scoring touchdowns it’s mcaffrey it’s Debo it’s

Iuk or it’s KD uh so that’s sort of what you’re trying to get with anything you’re doing but you know as long as you’re making the BET and you’re backing out the bet with everything you do after that where if I make a bet early on Justin Jefferson I should probably want

To make a bet on the Vikings or I guess him getting traded if I really want to do that but the more binary outcome is him just being great on the Vikings again then you start making bets in the Vikings what ha how is Justin Jefferson having this historic year that means

That Kurt Cousins probably had a great year too so like that’s the main thing is you’re just increasing the BET based upon the Angles and what you take Sav your leget another guy we like goes right ahead of us again when you wonder you wonder why I just want a pristine

Room with nobody who knows what Splash play is these are the reasons why uh Malachi Corley would be okay here a second tight endend would be okay Davian Sanders I think somebody on Peach stream the other day said that I really like Tavian Sanders I don’t really like him I

Think he’s okay uh he Jem Bell Ben cinate all three guys I could see taking late davien probably the best shot of being the tight end to in the draft class but I don’t love him I think he’s just okay I like him more than I like

Worthy and AD I Mitchell I guess the better way to put that I think Jonathan Brooks andavan Sanders good players worthy not a guy I’m really impressed by an Adonai Mitchell was somehow not great not efficient despite getting a lot of deep balls and being a deep ball guy quote

Unquote uh so it’s all relative oh okay M for life was looking at oh no sorry you were looking at him I was looking at Patrick Mahomes M for life and you took him that you end up correlating Patrick Mahomes with anything would be the question not so

Far Patrick Mahomes a naked Patrick Mahomes for E for life so you can live without gavian Sanders with your naked Mahomes ah there we go got him confused Sate yes Sate love s i actively love and very excited to see him getting hopefully a second round draft Capital

Which would make me feel great because i’ put him in the exact same spot as a Musgrave as a mayor and uh the nut outcome for Ben cinate which would make him come up a 100 spots in 80P probably would be him going to Houston uh and

Them not bringing back dton Schultz then Sate would be the most live tight end to be a monster um I should be taking more Cate really might take Cate in this build go three ends even though we have Travis Kelce s SE will be crazy for the running back free Asian

Carousel maybe I mean we talked about this a little bit yesterday I think we’re more likely to see the vet running backs end up in a situation like dvin cook did last year slash foret slash hunt um Zeke like I just don’t think these guys are going to price themselves

In the way the Market’s going to treat him and if that’s the case you know we could have what we talked about Zach Moss where yeah if you want if Derrick Henry wants 10 mil and I don’t know I think Derrick Henry out of all the guys

Would be the one that probably take a pay cut but like if Josh Jacobs wants 10 mil or you can get Zach Moss for four Mill You’re Gonna Go Zach Moss I think and probably not lose a whole lot in that equation and I think there’s enough teams that analytically sound enough to

Know that so that’s the risk for those guys but it’ll be interesting to see just because like it is like in terms of brand name guys there’s a lot of them but just wouldn’t be shocked if one of them does get musical chaired out and you know there’s uh like there’s a lot

Of steep price taag say ju went and pick 19 here and frankly he’s probably the least good running back out of all the ones who are those vet free agent names like I’d rather if I’m the Ravens I’d rather have Derrick Henry think I’d rather have Josh Jacobs if I’m like the

Cowboys I’d rather have would I rather have Tony Pard probably rather have saqua than Tony Pard I guess sad news no pick him Underdog in Mississippi that’s sad to hear Underdog look they got to go state by state and seems they’re going to have to get

Licens as like a legal sports book just to do DFS stuff which is shitty but uh you know kind of knew this was coming to a a front there but look again I’m wearing my Underdog shirt reup for another year so hey I’m team Underdog I hope that big evil DraftKings cuts the

Bullshit because DraftKings didn’t come my way send me I guess they’ve sent me merch in the past this year they’re not sending me merch and giving me a best ball sponsorship deal so fuck them but DraftKings is like DraftKings and FanDuel basically Al kind of evil um

I do fundamentally think that like it is a very blurry line between the the pick them kind of products and sports betting and I do think that you know for prize picks in particular the ubiquity of prize picks is like scary because people think that’s a good way to bet and it’s

Not that’s why we talk about probably here and just picking off single bets and try to do the best you can and if you’re gonna base you’re gonna do parlays you know use the math to really gu guide your parlay on that stuff but you know I I don’t know that I think

Prize picks isation of things is like great but you know like if you’re going to have DFS you’re going to have betting you’re have DraftKings have to run to the castle like Underdog priz Pi should be able to exist and do what they do 2562 here we have the early running

Back Capital not a big Jaylen Wright guy but a lot of people that seem sharp are so I’m actually G to take a share of Jaylen Wright it’s not about always getting my guys as I always talk about here I like the guys that I like to get

I sometimes get scooped on them because of our our overly Andy thusiastic same brained audience that ends up in draft rooms with me um but I think for me too just about taking guys when they line in a right way and and if jayen Wright’s good and I do think the numbers support

Him being okay enough very small sample size stuff for him last year but at Tennessee but him 32% avoided tackle rate 0.14 EPA per Rush awful cashing passes with a negative point1 EPA but he could still get there as a rusher um kind of think the bet on him is not dis

Similar to the bet on kendre Miller last year except that Jaylen Wright is not coming off of a catastrophic MCL injury we’re picking Rashad Penny poor Rashad Penny man I think there’s a world where Rashad Penny could have had DeAndre Swift’s year last year if they

Just didn’t trade for Swift uh but who knows I think he is unfortunately probably done stupid seminal in Florida that went under dog gone I mean because hard rock is the one I Hard Rock in Florida has the Monopoly which is crazy that that’s the case Florida all about fucking oh

Free wheel we got to be able to go out and cough on everyone but no they can’t fucking have more than one Sportsbook right you want your Freedom unless it comes to getting the sports book in I know it’s different people at play obviously the tribes are fucking

Ruthless with this stuff in California uh until somebody like bends the knee and gives the tribes like you know probably billions uh nobody’s gonna get into California in legalized sports betting which is sad but they got to protect their interests that’s the sad part of business bishan also doesn’t have

Underdog oh that sucks yeah I would be obviously I’d be lost if I didn’t have Underdog to draft but you know for pickham it’s a bummer because I see people placing pick thems and I do think you know I’d have fun placing them even if I do think you know inherently every

Five leg parlay going to be a little bit minus EV uh but you know like if you hit if you hit your probabilities right should be able to make something happen there all right 2662 build here this could just be well let’s see what Al Boogie does I’m not going to

Give anything away I’m thinking because Al Boogie listens to the stream and takes guys I like so this is what what you have to see me play it closer to the vest this is why Ric D good pick by Al Boogie here I’m actually going to go Malik waston

This going to be a draft where I took a few rookies I like Jaden Daniels Bucky Irving Brian Thomas Troy Franklin guys I like Malik waston I have questions about just think that he was a Target Merchant for a shit team you know still a a team

That played real teams in the ACC but Virginia not the highest pedigree school um so that’s where I have some concerns there but you know got to get shares somehow so today will be the day that I get Jaylen Wright and I get Malik Washington and I just yeah move on move

On my own prejudices against them for whatever reason 70 viewers get up to 70 likes yes please hit that like button here against Splash playay uh solo operation here you know despite the love of the community support of the community which does make me feel more like I’m not alone doing

This battle every day but subscribe down below hit that like button again helps us get seen by more people is always the goal here and uh helps me again this is one of my this is my primary revenue Source right now uh so this is why I

Show up every day and do the work and try to be as prepared as possible because this is my job along with getting probably off the ground so uh will always be the case I do that for you guys that is a promise year on

Splash play and it’s part of why I do football year round if I don’t take my brain doesn’t rest I’m constantly gonna be thinking of it um Reed Spencer here taking Eric gray actually like that pick quite a bit uh Parker Washington lesso think that his biggest benefit would be

No Christian Kirk he’s not gonna be an outside receiver I guess he could move Kirk outside potentially uh but if you’re playing the outcome where Ridley isn’t coming back I don’t think Parker washhington he had a few Spike weeks I guess I could take the fly on him but he

Should be like 19th or 20th round but Eric gray though had a lot of juice coming out of Oklahoma last year and I do think for him uh some flaws in his game but they did want to get him on the field where he was returning punts

Last year because they just saw what he could do in practice and thought he had some shiftiness that he was awful at returning punts like flubbed like fucking had to be like three punts in the span of a couple games um so then they stopped having to be a punt

Returner but he still ended up on active rosters late I think Eric gray if we did see Barkley leave the Giants probably the one to takes over that backfield because Matt breida you know they could he’s just a guy he’s a he’s a Mike Davis who retired Mike Davis retired this

Year find yourself drafting more rookies in Mahomes builds I do uh I mean look I think targeting an outside receiver who would be the replacement for mvs that we know that he’s been released uh but we assume that anyway so I think that if you’re drafting you know any of these

Guys really who are deep receivers downfield it’s got to be some though I think is like a deep Target guy because Rashid rice is not going to become that and uh we’ll see do I take another guy that I don’t like that much just for the

Sake of doing this uh Damen Pierce by the way free it crazy uh I’m gonna take Javon Baker here another guy I’m just not that big on but people seem to like a lot uh he has some positive metrics going for him I just think that there’s

A few flaws but let’s look at him again Javon Baker so really low Target Prout run rate for him 26.5% but a 04 EPA uh played mostly out wide as well 043 EPA out wide and then downfield what did he do downfield downfield was not great 2.3

Deep targets good for a 0.5 EPA which is a little bit low uh for a downfield receiver but we’ll take Javon Baker here and hope that he is something useful gotta just avoid my priors for the occasional draft here and right Malik Wason Javon Baker these guys all

Lined up pretty well very rookie heavy room for sure for my my team but I’m comfortable with that less barrier entry for rookies getting there uh Russ I think an okay pick in this range and honestly Russ what am I banking on for Russ here he goes to New England they

Take a receiver late maybe no you know what I’m just gonna get my third tight end I don’t I don’t think I need a third QB really guess could use a little coverage on Kirt cousins returning for injury but I I’m not that worried about about that uh 2683 build I take Ben

Cinate here another one of my favorite rookies probably my favorite rookie tight end besides Brock Bowers just because of what he represents athletically might not have the highest draft Capital it’s likely gonna be jaavan Sanders behind Brock Bowers but I still think there was a shot that Sate

Can get there so the team so far Jaden Daniels Kurt Cousins at QB Devon aan Isaiah Pacho Roshan Johnson Bucky Irving Zach moss and jayen Wright at running back wide receiver Justin Jefferson Rashid rice Brian Thomas uh Troy Franklin Deontay Johnson Jameson William Malik Washington and Javon Baker trying

To draft a little bit out of type with these two guys and Jaylen Wright late and then Travis Kelsey Davian Sanders Ben cinate I’m all right with it what is the most rookies you have on a team I have an 11 rookie little board team don’t know off hand uh

I I could see taking three to four at running back four to five at receiver two at tight end two at QB so what’s the math on that two four let’s say two four 42 I feel like 10 10 to 12 I could see taking comfortably and not feeling that

Bad about it but you know it’s a little bit bitter like you really have to be taking guys that can get on the field immediately I think if you have a team where you have like 10 to 12 rookies and it’s all the Javon Baker Malik

Washington Jaylen W tier not to just say guys that I don’t like that much but even the Ben ciner like it’s all those guys it’s a little bit tough but you have to if you’re taking 10 guys and it’s like the rookie QBs with a couple of the best running backs and really

Wide receiver in particular where you’re getting mhj you’re getting neighbors you’re maybe getting o dun you’re maybe getting um Troy Franklin you know I think that’s where you can get there a little bit more it is Extreme it is Extreme excited for the combine to start tomorrow uh I mean not really because

It’s it’s like linebackers tomorrow so doesn’t do a whole lot for you but yes the combine is fun really wish that all the guys who were big names were competing I think that is when the combine is out its most fun uh but we’ll see you know really the throwing though

I don’t think janen Daniels is throwing so that’s kind of shitty like I want to see Caleb and Jane Daniels going head-to-head and throwing it like we saw last year was shroud AR not Bryce young but I like that was a really fun thing even Levis like looked good and

Acquitted himself well in that in that kind of environment um so what are we gonna do cadarius Tony goes to our guy maybe that is his first correlation with Patrick Mahomes so guy who probably is not going to be on the team next year is how Wayne baby here justifies

Taking Mahomes away from me but that’s fine gonna beat this pot up uh 2683 here could take one more running back still have Russell Wilson sitting here I I think at this point him starting somewhere and adding enough value to make a roster one week I think is in

Play final team here 3683 draft number 22 for me hit that like button if you can while we review it Jaden Daniels Kirk Cousins Russell Wilson uh Devon aan Isaiah Pacheko Roshan Johnson Bucky Irving Zach Moss Jaylen Wright wide receiver Justin Jefferson Rashid rice Brian Thomas Troy Franklin Deontay Johnson Jameson Williams Malik

Washhington Javon Baker and a tight end Travis Kelce gavian Sanders Ben Sate I think we made up for not getting enough wide receivers early with a lot of upside guys overall both vets and I think rookies so I’m pretty happy with this build getting the discounts on

Rashid rice and also Pacho feels pretty good like getting hn at discount as well maybe a little bit more stacking could have been in play uh but I don’t know fortunately if you’re taking rookies you’re not GNA be able to stack up that well so uh that is the final

Team here guys but again one more ask please do subscribe down below hit that like button hit the join button down below as well for $4.99 a month if you want to support the channel the most you also want to get your name name on this

List here of all the people who have helped me put on the show so far uh this month please hit that join button down below want to get this list as big as possible because the more of you are on board the more fun things we can do the

More we can build out this channel meaningfully instead of just a side hustle make it a real thing of course Underdog presenting sponsor of this show I’m wearing my shirt here big Underdog for one more year go check it out for yourself if you for some reason are not

Playing on there use RB Cod spash double your deposit up to 100 bucks on stochastic promod spash will save you 15% on all their data packages as I talked about NBA another four entry fee tournament on Friday I’ll be maxing that out because that’s that’s my price point

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Time meaningfully and that is what we do at probably and uh thank you guys for being a part of this stream here today back tomorrow new dream uh new streams new giraffes Monday to Friday at 11: am. every single day appreciate each and every one of you especially the guys in

Chat for being here live I’ll see you guys again soon and enjoy your days good luck bye

22 Comments

  1. Florida Underdog update: I received email from Underdog yesterday informing that they will not be offering paid pick em entries effective 2/29 BUT they WILL continue to offer draft contests.Yeah my hopes for Best Ball Mania Champion are still alive!

  2. Is there a way to check certain sites on probly? I only use a two cites for sports betting (Ex only underdog bets or only dk sportsbook bets)

  3. Really liked your first three rounds. That’s getting unique done right. Take players after ADP to give you a unique combination. Unfortunately, the room got bled out at WR pretty quickly. I thought you did pretty well given the circumstances.

  4. Three tight end build with Kelce is perfectly fine. KC seems to be taking a NBA approach with him to just try to keep him healthy through the reg season.

    Also, here’s a nude egg

  5. My bad Chris. I was in a rush this morning. What I mean is ARTHMATIC=ARITHMA'TRICK'. The math never maths' anywhere. 369 views and only 64 likes. 66 NOW… LOL 7:15PM. I will be fuckin around with my channel on you tube. Mostly music and "drilling the government". I'm not trying to make money on here. I love supporting my people. You, my nephews and son were all born in the same era. I wanna see everyone I support do well. I live good and have extra time to fuck around, you guys don't. Diontae Johnson would look really good in a Bills or K C uniform… lol Lets Go Buffalo and the Raiders!!!!! THEEBUFFALOWARPIGS

  6. And it is 7:28 pm and it is 27 out and snowing, it was 60 earlier in the am…. Bi Polar weather. 60 in philly. lol I'll shut the fuck up because my theories are out of this realm. Lets Go!!!!!!!!!!!

  7. If KC hits at WR in 1st round or better yet acquires an alpha, why can't Mahomes have the same ceiling as Allen or Hurts? He runs less maybe but prime Rodgers and Manning with WR talent hit 45 pts and hes better.

  8. Hey Spags! Idk if you ever got to the bottom of the DOG thing but I THINK it has something to do with Jim Harbaugh. Apparently DOG is his nickname according to Pro Football Reference. lol The Fantasy Footballers pointed it out on their podcast

  9. I hate to keep beating a dead hosre but why would a SCHMUCK BADGE player snipe out of spite?? Thank you for your donation. You ain't gonna beat the WARPIGS with that shit… Lets Fuckin Go!!!!!

  10. Fuckin Fugazie drafters. I like to re watch early in the am when my weirdo brain gets back from astro travel… A ;lot of spanish woman travel with me… lol In my dreams of coarse..🤪

  11. That Bindles dude and El Comish are some beastly mother fuckers boy.. WOW!!!!! Same class as you and Pete.. Lets Fuckin Go!!!!!

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