First Call Podcast: Jeff Siegel & Jeremy Plonk | Saturday, February 24, 2024 Stakes Previews

Jeff Siegel & Jeremy Plonk preview 8 weekend stakes including Oaklawn’s Rebel and the $20M Saudi Cup from Riyadh.

And a TGIF everyone welcome into the first call podcast representing express bet and first bet he’s Jeff seagull I’m Jeremy blanan there are really two fronts on the racing calendar this Saturday a lot of great racing Coast to Coast but when you talk about the big Marquee events Jeff it’s a rebel Stakes

Day at Oak laom Park $1.25 million there that’s just a spit in the bucket to what they’re giving away in Saudi Arabia though with a $20 million cup and a big undercard to go with it so you could be assured that those two places are going

To be near and dear to our handicapping hearts this afternoon well you got to get up early where I am to watch those Saudi races but I will do so because this is a terrific card uh and it makes it better for us in in the states to

Have horses that we know that we can relate to uh and that we would be very interested in seeing how they look on the world stage so I’m looking forward to all the races that Saudi Arabia and I’m certainly looking forward to the big one um we know the horses very well that

Will get most of the play they ran in the Breeders Cup last year training some of them it’s here at San Anita locally based for us anyway so uh yeah no I I think it’s going to be great good gambling if you like a price you’ll get

One um and then of course at at uh oaklan some pivotal races on the Derby Trail there so um great racing this this weekend on Saturday around the world not just in the states not just Jeff and I have helping you handicap this weekend we’ve got Michelle Yu on the ground

She’s working the international simoc cast for the Saudi cup program she’s going to check in in just a moment with her analysis of what she’s seen training in the morning towards the Saudi cup and an undercard player to as well so be sure to hang around for that and want to

Remind you that it’s the final week of the express bet beat the host contest now in its 19th season one more chance to qualify for the beat the host Championship round coming up in two weeks time the final handicapper you’ve got a beat our buddy and yours Eddie EK

Is ready to take you on Saturday so uh we will be sure uh to see how the results pan out there Alexander Bertram I told you last week I was coming for you you beat me so you are still alive to sweep the host $6,000 bonus $6,500

Bonus if you sweep the host this year so Alexander beram good luck if you can take down Eddie EK he’s already guaranteed $4,000 Jeff because he’s the longest lasting in The Knockout round if you will he lasted longer than any other player so he’s got the $4,000 int but

You might as well beat Eddie for another 2500 right sure go let’s take a look at our handicapping schedule for this week’s podcast for the benefit of those of you on our audio channels we’ll go through each of the races for those of you watching on

YouTube or on Twitter be sure to repost this on YouTube hit that thumbs up the likes uh share it out with your friends to help grow the audience for the first call podcast our eight stakes races that we take a look at each Friday will line up this way for Saturday February the

24th we will go to Saudi Arabia King abdulaziz race course the host site for the Saudi cup uh fifth year for the Saudi cup the Saudi Derby the Riad dirt Sprint and the Saudi cup will be the three of the six major thorough bread staks races The Jeff and I will handicap

All those races on the dirt a couple Turf races to uh have on the program as well at GF stream or at oaklon Park I should say on Saturday it is Rebel Stakes day we will handy cap the carousel the honeybee the Razer back and the rebel in succession Philly May

Sprinters potential Oaks Phillies oaklan handicap prep and then of course the big Arkansas Derby prep that’s how they line up the four races will handicap at oaklan and then to santanita it will be the Santa Ana Stakes as we uh feature that race on the west coast on Saturday

Want to remind you good racing action at Laurel Park on Saturday as well they’re back with another big Stakes weekend following up last week’s General George and Barbara frie they’ve got the miracle wood in the wide country those are potential prus and blackeyed Susan local runners in that for three-year-olds and

Three-year-old Phillies and down a golf stream The $125,000 Golf Stream Park Turf Sprint will be featured on Saturday we already told you about beat the host cost just $50 to play check that out on Saturday against Eddie EK and if you want to play in some handicapping feeder

Tournaments some of the bigger uh more high dollar events later in the season you can qualify for many of those this weekend Friday Saturday Sunday for just a $40 entry fee in our feeder tournaments for golf stream and for Santa Anita okay Jeff Let’s uh take our handicapping game overseas right now

We’re going to talk about the action in Saudi Arabia King abdulaziz race course is the venue a one turn uh Mile and an eighth that you can run at Saudi Arabia’s uh main race course there so it’s going to be a little different configuration than when these horses

Matched up many of them in the Breeders Cup Classic and for our horses who in the Saudi Derby maybe looking ahead to potential Triple Crown bid it’s a oneir mile there for the Saudi Derby so we’re not Apples to Apples in the comparisons when you go two turns in one and and the

Track configuration and the geographical I don’t know what are you want to call this a neutral site for most of thees I think so yeah this changes up the handicapping equation a little bit yeah it’s it’s interesting and um in the past you you’d get a Japanese horse you’d kind of like

Well I’ll know I’ll I’ll believe it if I you know when I see it type of thing now that they’ve had so much International success you look a horse that a horse like forever young in the Saudi Derby and you have to right scratch yourself

Your head and say maybe this is a pretty good horse it’s it’s hard to to really know for sure because you don’t know how trustworthy this the the speed figures are whatever you’re dealing with um but visually you can look at a horse like forever young and say you know that’s a

Pretty nice horse um he’s three for three in Japan um all three of his races were won in dominant fashion um he’s been a distance to ground that’s not an issue at all he’s actually won twice in a mile and an eighth um and then most recently in a mile he’s got speed

Apparently uh because what we see on video is is something that uh tells us that he can be close up so I’m really kind of interested to see how he matches up with a American horse named B Dano who is pretty darn good himself four wins and five starts mostly against

State Bread company but um numbers wise he’s fairly solid he’s not brilliant but he’s you know a pretty decent sort of horse right so it’ll be interesting to see how Forever Young matches up with bookham Dano um the uh the guilding uh coming in from off a win at Tampa Bay uh

But from what I can see on video anyway Forever Young uh is uh you know he’s pretty pretty salty C and I I would expect him to show up with a with a big race let’s go back to Kawasaki race course for his most recent start Forever

Young on December 13th winning for the third straight time as we head around that fourth and final turn and now we’re racing heading for home Forever Young starting to switch it on now with that lead over IG Noah and forever young forever in the lead here tonight number

12 Forever Young the winner of the 74th Zen Neo niss yo by a mile you go to in there for second s Sant nor in there for third number 12 Forever Young making it look easy three victories in a row undefeated the world is his oyster

Now and that world goes to Saudi Arabia and then perhaps the United Arab Emirates for the UAE Derby on Dubai World Cup night and then to the United States Yoshida yahagi the trainer he’s the uh D Wayne Lucas of Japan I mean we’ve seen him with his style and his

Shades and and come over here and win Breeders Cup races I mean he knows the path and the routine to get over here now and uh he’s in the right hands we’re talking about Forever Young Who amongst the Japanese horses if he can get through these next two steps the Saudi

Derby and UAE Derby he will be one of the most formidable International horses ever to contest the Kentucky Derby but he’s got to make the next step he leaves his homeland for the first time but the Japanese had so much success last year uh winning three of the six races on

Saudi cup day uh you would suspect that uh unless bookham Dan or runs him into the ground I don’t know of anybody else in this field uh that you want to try to even kind of match up with forever young he looks to be a standout in here and

Not only that I don’t I’ve been going to the races for a long time and I’ve watched a lot of races I don’t think I’ve ever heard an announcer say that a horse won by a mile pretty impressive I don’t know how that relates with regards to the racing

Form and the and the length of it yeah right mile I think it was seven officially but yeah okay but the bottom yeah but the bottom line is the best part of that race was the last part I mean he wasn’t getting tired he was like

A train in the final 16th of a mile um and again distance no issue um he’s got speed um you know that track over there is kind of deep but um I think I don’t think that’s a factor I mean I’m pretty sure he’ll be able to handle any kind of

Thing that that they throw at him so I I’m really interested to see his performance because it may not be the last we see of him tomorrow U and U from a gambling standpoint I have no idea what price he’ll be but um you know if

It’s not three to five or or or uh lower he looks it to me on paper so H really interested to see for every young run in the Saudi Derby Florida sire Stak series Alum Ben torado for Jose Angelo is over there as well so we’ve got a little golf

Stream represent ation in the Saudi Derby that’ll be race number four on the card from Saudi Arabia tomorrow and that will start the pick six there are six major third bread races they’ve got some Arabian races to start the card all nine races on the program will be offered at

First bet and express bet for wagering here’s a look at the betting lineup if you’re going to be playing Saudi Arabia tomorrow I gave you the takeout percentages for all the Wagers these are internationally Set uh takeout Wagers uh so look you’re betting into a 25% try

And super and multi-race bet but uh win place uh of course if you bet place that’s top three in international betting so keep that in mind so it’s basically like winning show as we would say here in America but your place bets will be for you know top three finishers

Could take out there at 17 and a half percent uh you know the the exact is in at 19% maybe the way that you want to lean in your wagering if you’re looking at the multi-race bets again pick six is a 50 c minimum that starts races 4

Through nine that will take you race number four which we just talked about the Saudi Derby all the way through the Saudi cup two pick threes on the card the first three of the thored races four five and six and then the last three seven eight and n and then you’ve got a

Couple Daily Doubles starting things out in races five and six and again in races eight and nine so those are your wagering formats for Saturday’s racing you can bet it all with first bet and express bet and when you do so we’ve got a $10 moneyback special when you bet

With first bet and express bet on all nine races on the Saudi Cup Day card from uh Saudi Arabia so uh up up to $10 back in your account if your win bet in any race finishes second or third so a little safety insurance as you bet those

International races if you want to go after Forever Young you got a little bit of a a backup plan if he happens to run second or third uh in race number four let’s go next up on the schedule to the fifth race on the card as we follow the

Saudi derby with the Riad dirt Sprint Jeff this is a six forong Sprint uh we’re going to see horses in here that might end up into Dubai golden Shaheen the big $2 million race coming up on Dubai World Cup day we’ve got some International interest of course from

Japan from around Great Britain uh locally uh Middle Eastern type horses but we’ve also got a couple Americans in there uh bold Journey for Bill mot coming off the three straight winds is going to head West or Head East to the Far East and Skelly will also take that

Big winning streak seven in a row from the Oakland base for Steve asmon and try the action in the Middle East so bold Journey Skelly the Americans to watch in here how do you see the re dirt Sprint well I see Skelly I mean I see a lot of

Ones next to his name I also see four triple-digit buyer numbers in his last six starts um he hasn’t been over raced he’s he’s five but he’s only had 12 starts eight start eight wins three seconds uh so he’s genuine he’s consistent he’s fast he can handle any

Kind of ground he just went on a sloppy track and the King Cotton before that his form was outstanding and um he won uh The Count Fleet at oaklan last year it was on the the only greated Stakes race he’s been in but numbers wise says

That he’s as good as there is in the states U practical joke yelding trained by Steve ason Santana his regular Rider going over that ride him and um his kind of speed I think uh makes him tough internationally he’s very very quick but he doesn’t run off and and hide he’s the

Kind of horse that can make the leads switch off Midway and then rebre and if he can reproduce his form I think he’ll win and He’s listed at 4 to one on the morning line for whatever that’s worth I don’t know what what you’ll get right

But I would uh but I would suspect that Skelly U as consistent and as genuine as he is um he’s going to be tough to beat the last time we saw these horses on the Middle Eastern stage on the golden Shaheen on Dubai World Cup Day cilia is

Coming from Florida the American was able to go overseas and and win that dirt Sprint wouldn’t be surprised if the Americans have an edge here with Skelly and buold journey as well two is a horse from the Middle East that you certainly have to consider B in Dubai coming off a

Big win last time out I know that horse has caught Michelle U’s eye and we’re going to check in with Michelle now from her hotel in Riad where literally just a few minutes before we went on the air here to uh record our podcast for Friday she filed this report and here’s what

Michelle’s looking at towards the Saudi cup and some of the undercard players as well from Dubai here’s Michelle Saudi cup day coming up tomorrow and of course I’ve been on the ground here in Riad I want to tell you who has looked great training and to me that has been

National Treasure he has been so full of energy in the bridal he almost ran over me at the starting G there the other day after he was schooling uh so he just looked Sensational anyone that’s been following white aario I was convinced that he was not going to be fit enough

For the Saudi cup off that layoff but that last work at santanita which you can watch over at xbtv was just chef’s kiss I thought he looked fantastic there and I think he’s going to put in a good account of himself uh however even though Dutro loves the one turn I don’t

Necessarily Love the One turn for him of the Japanese horses I think lemon pop is so stinking cute but I’m just not sure if this is going to be his ideal trip so for me of all the Japanese horses I’m going to Buck the trend a little I’m

Going to go yha tooro everybody out here is talking dermota gake who was runner up in the classic but usba was the horse before the Breeders Cup I think he didn’t get the best of trips that day hopefully he can get the best of one on

Saturday night so for me it’s going to be National Treasure over bario andoro if I’m going to throw in a wild from the clowns long shot it is going to be isolate isolate looked fantastic on track this week he’s carrying such good flesh he just comes out as like a I

Don’t know he’s just a dude and I really liked him he’s coming in with backtack winds that last win at a mile off of the layoff I thought was a perfect stepping stone to stretch him out here Tyler gleon got off them that night and he told the connections absolutely this

Horse is going to have no problem with the added distance so maybe if you’re looking for a long shot he could be the one as far as the undercard goes a couple horses looking good include tzz for bat Samir he is going to be going in

The Riad dirt Sprint and believe me that race is going to be stacked and we have a couple of nice us horses bu Journey for billmont we have Skelly for ason who’s bringing in a seven race win string but TZ really really impressed me in the mornings here I think he should

Be really interested coming off an eight length score in the dubawi good luck for everybody who’s going to be betting this Saudi Cup this weekend and we’ll see you home soon all right that was from Saudi Arabia not Dubai I’m getting my map confused maybe uh next up we’ll have somebody

Corresponding from Dubai when it’s World Cup day but here is the field for the Saudi cup and Jeff time for us to handicap the2 million world’s richest thoroughbread horse race a field of 15 entered with an also eligible in Scotland Yard he will go because number eight Mishu Hario has scratched so

Scratch the eight and the 15 Scott Scotland Yard will draw into the field so field to 14 set to go white aario the morning line favorite usazorro second choice at four to one in the international odds projections we’ll see param Mutual in the world pools how this

All shakes out when fans start to bet on this one Saudi Crown 10 to1 National Treasure the pness winner last year and winner of this year’s Pegasus World Cup at 8 to1 you’ve got Hoist the gold with American interest in here 30 to1 in the morning line of course he won the cigar

Mile defund the former Bob baffer training who won the Hollywood Gold Cup last year now in hands in Middle Eastern hands transferred and he will run for the new connections 12 to1 in the morning line there and of course Derma sagaki he’s the horse you and I both

Like last year going into the Kentucky Derby he’s got a chance to make amends for a good second place finish in the Breeders Cup Classic in his rematch uh with white aario what a fun interesting race you kind of take the Breeders Cup Classic you throw in the dirt mile

Winter and National Treasure and some more International Intrigue and and this is one of the more exciting additions of one of these International races Dubai World Cup included that we’ve seen in many years on the dirt yeah and the other thing about it is it’s kind of a

Race within a race because there was so much speed signed on in this race and it’s a one turn mile which is actually good for the for the speed because they don’t really have to be rushed off their feet leaving the gate yeah get a position because of an upcoming Close

Turn they got a long run so they all can kind of come out of the gate get in the Rhythm and sometimes when that happens the pace isn’t quite as fast as you might think it would be with all with all so much speed so many front running

Types or Pace pressors in the race having said that um I’m going to handicap the race under the assumption and I hope it’s a correct one I might be wrong that maybe the closers might have an edge uh long run in decent contested Pace no one’s going to get a

Breather in this race right I looked at the two Japanese horses dagaki um ran so well in the brers Cup Classic um stayed on very very well uh despite the fact that we had been told that he had had his training interrupted and maybe wasn’t 100% for the race and still

Ran great um and I was reading quotes from the trainers saying well he he didn’t have him ready last year this year he’s ready which is good to know um so I think he will run well um uh and I you know I I don’t want to be chasing

Him you know how that goes when you get a horse and you figure that you you want you got to prove to yourself that you were right all along right them and stuff like that but um um you know I I was impressed with why Bario’s win in

The in the in the race uh here in San Anita for sure I think he’s legit the one thing though that that I I bring back to me though in terms of that race brius classic is this the the power of speed at at San Anita and how difficult

It is to make up a unextended run and I like usba Doro in the Bri Cup Classic despite that and he and he you know he was way back early he made a run he finished fifth got beat only three lengths over a track that really didn’t

Complement his style so I think in this race if he were to run back to his best race he has a chance to blow the field away in the final stages of the race but you know he’s four to one I don’t know whether that’s a great price or not but

I think he’ll run well gaki I know will run well because he’ll be a little closer to the PACE than us he won’t be from coming from way out of it and I think the winner is going to be one of those two I I really do I I wouldn’t be

Shocked if white a Buel reproduced his outstanding race um in the brius Cup Classic but he’s an inside the speed and I don’t know Jeremy I I I’m much more interested honestly in watching this race and evaluating than actually gambling on it because there’s so many

Factors in here that U that I’m not really don’t have my thumb on that I I nothing really would surprise me but I do believe that the two Japanese horses are going to run really really well and if they’re middle prices maybe I can play them both Japan won the race last

Year with pan Lassa in fact four of the top five placings in this race uh outside of Country Grammar uh the top five was all Japanese last year in the Saudi cup so Jeff’s taking the two Japanese horses who do get the pace set up right we know they went fast in the

Breeders Cup and that carried at santanita we will see if that carries in Saudi Arabia let’s give you a chance to go back and look at the Breeders Cup classic and extended replay here uh because you’re going to see right off the bat Saudi Crown’s right into the mix

White AB Bario’s right into the mix uh uh all the main players that you’re kind of seeing back here on Saturday right up into the mix of the Breeders Cup Classic and of course the two Japanese horses will make their run in the race as well so here’s the Breeders Cup Classic Larry

Colus from last year 4.73 was the half mile for Arabian Knight who leads it by 3/4 of a length Saudi crown on the outside second right up Mario continues to St the top two as they reach for the far turn thotake has come under pressure so to xand and

They’re both being has to run as is USA Toro and he’s nine legs off the lead around the far turn Arabian Knight wi up bario circles up on the outside Saudi Crown all out between those two then it’s derot Toro is beginning to move on the

Outside but work to do as wide up bario and Arabia night turn for home together in the Breeders Cup Classic wide up bario has taken the lead Arabian Knight gives way thota G and usoro are trying to close the gap but it is white aario and aad Ortiz and they have won the

Breeders Cup Classic over derot gake Roxy came late was in a photo for third with rabian night in 20287 seconds it’s white up Mario you know we talk about the layoff with the horses you know coming out of the Breeders Cup to this race not that far

Of a distance of a layoff but when you look at deros sakei Jeff and you look at white aario both those horses were kind of coming off layoffs into the Breeders Cup right I mean dermota gaki had not run since the Kentucky Derby white aario they laid off from the Whitney they just

Said we’re shutting it down after Saratoga no final prep there so basically for white aario this will be the second race since August uh for dermota gaki just the second race since May uh these horses are absolutely going to not be over the top it’s a matter

Enough if they’re fit and ready to go and I can’t imagine with $20 million on the line and the trainers were talking about uh with these two worldclass horses that they won’t be fit and ready to go so uh this they should be at their

Peak is what I’m saying is the fact that they’re not over R this isn’t an afterthought uh this is a destination for these two horses and uh uh I think we’re going to see a show on Saturday morning seems to me this race has been on the schedule I think the trainers

Know when it was and when it was supposed to be I think they kind of work backwards from there to say okay how do I get my horse ready to run the race of his life on this day these are good top world class trainers they know what to

Do and um I just I think it’s it’s a great race I mean uh from a race that uh I I think kind of we kind of thought like maybe it was going to be an afterthought four or five years ago when it was first planned now it is a major

Major step uh uh goal for every older good older horse in the world why wouldn’t it be with that kind of money so I’m looking forward to it and uh you know not not really knowing the track that well and only going by what we’ve seen in previous years uh I do think

It’s a probably a reasonably Fair track uh and I think everybody will have their chance that’s why it’s going to be a great race post time is 12:40 Eastern for the Saudi cup the card starts about about 7:00 a.m. eastern with the trio of the uh Arabian races to start and then

The Thor breads really kick things up in race number four uh in the Saudi Derby again a quick reminder your wagering format for Saturday morning again you can bet these races with first bet and express bet pick six on the final six races on the card two pick threes on the

Card no pick fours or pick fives uh they do offer Daily Double wagering this is the international pools that you’ll be betting into go mingled win place wagering with the 17 a half% takeout the best value there amongst those races and again a $10 moneyback special on wind

Bet so you get the low takeout you get the uh wind bet insurance if you will if your win bet to finish second or third in any race you get up to $10 back so you might want to attack with some win plays on that Saudi cup card on Saturday

Uh from the Middle East all right let’s move on to our domestic races on Saturday where oaklan park has Rebel Stakes day and a big series of undercard stakes races to go with it we’re going to look at four races in succession on the card races 89 10 and 11 I believe

They are let’s start with the carousel in race number eight Jeff seagull uh this is a race where three of the horses come back out of the American Beauty Stakes but none of the main players out of that race so are we looking for somebody fresh to the oak on scene

Perhaps I I am I I looked at mucho Macho girl Philly who has never been in a Stakes but um she’s only had four starts three wins numbers are are very solid I like her style in the sense that she doesn’t bust out there and open up and

Hang on she kind of presses the pace and then gives you a second move kicks on with it um I love her work pattern since her most recent win which was in early January at Fairgrounds um she won an overnight race there with a very strong 86 buyer number which is probably good

Enough to beat this field and I don’t think we’ve seen anywhere near the best of her for Dallas Stewart so um um based on her work pattern her style of running her numbers um and her potential with only just the four starts so far I think

Mucho Macho girl to me anyway is the one to beat and she comes in from Fairgrounds again we’ve talked about this in some of her other handicapping podcast but January was a rough time to be at oakw Park where they missed 11 days of training during the month of

January so a lot of those horses got behind the eightball those shipping in from out of town whether they came from Turfway Fairgrounds other places have had a lot of success at oaklan over the last several weeks since they got back into running at some point those other

Horses who Miss some of that training time are going to be caught up but until you start to see you know that them assert their local dominance again it’s not a bad idea at all to take a look at the shippers you’ve got one in mucho

Macho girl now we can’t just give one horse out for uh the oaklan races on Saturday Jeff because we’ve got a special promo called the exact Theon if you could pick six exactas races with six xacta winners out of the 12 on the card you’re going to share your take on

$20,000 in cash and the person who picks the most exactive the races with the most exactive Pi correctly at okl on Saturday is going to Win $5,000 in cash so there is 25,000 good reasons to play the exactas on Saturday at oakam Park now again if you’re looking at these

Kind of hit and split things like we did last week at Fairgrounds on risen star day the $25,000 hit and split for the late pick five was only won by 11 players so they each got over 22 almost $2,300 each in addition to what they cashed on the paramutual side I think it

Paid somewhere around three grand for the uh so all those folks who played with first bet an Express pet instead of cashing for three grand cash for over $5,000 on the hit and split last weekend uh that’s just free money that were giving away so it’s a great promotion

Same sort of thing here it’s a hit and split if you will when we look at the exact Thon coming up on Saturday now you have to hit an Exacta in six to 12 races that doesn’t sound easy but you can play as many combinations as you want so if

You have a five horse xacta box or you’ve got a chalky xacta in One race it’s all the same just get one and survive and you’re trying to get six during the course of the 12 races you got to hit in six different races not six total exactas you need an Exacta in

Six different races so Jeff’s got you with mucho Macho girl I’m gonna throw in zeitlos is the other horse I think you want to look at in this Carousel Stakes she’s coming off a nice win at the meat I think it sets up nicely for her she’s

Got a little bit of a closing kick in a race that’s got a lot of speed as mus trains that daughter of Kurland gleon in town to ride for some of the bigger races we’ll pick up the mount here in the carousel so maybe mucho Macho girl

And zlo is a way to start off the exact Theon that’s how I see it yeah all right let’s go to the honeybee staks coming up next the honeybee is the uh prep for the fantasy Stakes which is on the Kentucky Oaks Trail uh a Philly

That’s been in a lot of races uh she seems to scratch and find the right spot to run West Omaha she was GNA run on springboard mile day at Remington Park in the trapes they scratched out of there with a medication snafu then she was supposed to run back last weekend at

Fairgrounds in the rachal Alexandria they scratched out of that spot to run here in the honeybee so they’re being selective with where they put her but everything they’ve done is pretty much come up roses she’s won two easily she’s four for four in the money what do you

Make of West Omaha for Brad Cox who’s going to be I think a pretty solid favorite in the honeybee I mean she’s clearly the one to beat I mean she should be a short price uh uh she’s I’ve seen her run on video and she looks

Great on video she she got that she has the Tactical speed to lay close as wherever you want her to be uh she can stalk and then when you ask her to run she quickens like a good Philly right I like the fact that every race that she’s

Run uh she’s made a forward move numbers wise um you know I mean the only thing that that kind of I I I’m surprised that this is going to be her fifth start fifth different R Rider I were on her I’d want to stay on her or

Do everything I could um but she’s the one to beat there’s no doubt about it and um you have to um put her on top but the one that I that caught my eye was Band of Gold u i I’m really hesitant to say anything definitive about any performance that’s that’s accomplished

Over an off track unless I know it’s going to be an off track I don’t I have no idea what weather the weather is going to be at Oakland so whether or not Band of Gold is just nothing more than a mud freak uh she was 24 to1 when she won

The Martha Washington but she is a daughter of preservationist and I I he was one of my favorite horses and he’s going to get a he’s going to get a good horse they’re GNA be developing late they’re G to be long distance stretch running types which man of goal

Apparently is and she did win on Fast ground at Churchill first time out so um maybe the track didn’t move her up maybe she’s just getting good she certainly left her previous form behind how about this she U she earned an 86 buyer number in that win which is faster than

Anything West Omaha’s ever earned so if it wasn’t the off track and she’s going to be a decent price to me Band of Gold has to be considered somewhere on your ticket 62 maybe the way we go in the exact Aon 2 six as you’ve got two options there with westall the favorite

And Band of Gold let’s go back to that Martha Washington Matt dinman picks her up and she finishes strong as they come off the turn Band of Gold trying to get into it she’s fourth four behind Denim and Pearls asked for her best and kicks

On to the lead she opens up a length and a half and second tap at janali neon Beach between them Band of Gold continues to come charging and here’s Band of Gold for the upset Band of Gold and Brian Hernandez Jr to the lead soaring away to win the Martha Washington

Stakes that’s what a $50 winner looks like she was 24 to one that day Kenny mcp’s having a great meet at oaklan he’s already won you know a 15 plus race over 20% wins and a nice week for Kenny because he picked up his 2,000th career Victory the other night at Turfway Park

So congrats to him band W the watching there and Jeff uh sunny and 68 Saturday in Hot Springs how does that treat you when say about the weather for I’m glad because I want to see those races run under dry conditions so nobody has an excuse everybody has a chance to

Reproduce their form and then maybe the uh results will be a little bit more definitive than we we have when we got a messy track and we have no idea if it was the track or the horse that that really won the race Brad Cox had the

Dominant Philly last year wet paint if you remember on the series towards the fantasy Stakes uh she really ran rough shot over the folks at oakw and we’ll see if he continues it with West omal or maybe Kenny mCP continues his role uh with Jeff’s top pick in their Band of

Gold next up at Oakland we’re gonna have horses prepping towards the Oakland handicap it’s the Razer back I made this the express bet race of the week not just because it’s a $600,000 first because when you go through this field of 13 you’re going to say this is not a

$600,000 field but what you will say is there’s no standout and it’s a great gambling race and so while they’re running for a very inflated purse you can understand why we talked about the Saudi cup just to get a little aside here you know how the Saudi cup is kind

Of like started maybe as a novelty we thought but how dominant it’s become as a race it has really changed the international handicap division too I mean when you think about the US races it’s had a major impact on the pegas World Cup in January it’s had a major

Impact on the santanita handicap races like this like the Razer back 600,000 you’ve got the best horses in the US heading there for 20 million 600,000 a million three million in Pegasus it just doesn’t stack up to 20 and you understand that connections want to run for that kind of once in a-lifetime

Money over in Saudi Arabia but it has definitely had a trickle down effect uh and and so horses that would have been going to santon to the Pegasus or or another big race around the country in the handicap Division if they go to Saudi Arabia now those other races have

Openings so those second tier horses might move up to the first tier races and now the second tier race like the Razer back ends up looking like a listed stakes and that’s kind of the way this field is but it’s a good deep uh cast in

Here and it’s gonna be a good betting race it’s a handicap race which we don’t have many of and here’s the funny thing about this the high weight is8 PBS and the low weight is 115 pound exactly you go out and take a stand here in terms of

The weight but you know the funny thing is Jeremy this race looks like they could make an equal weights and it would be just the same it may look a lot like that on the toad board right I mean there may not be a lot of top end horses

And a lot of bottom end horses you could very well get a 7even to2 favorite in this race or higher honestly in fact I went through this race horse by horse several times to try to find one that really caught my eye and said okay

That’s the stand out I had to go through this race like five times before I actually came up with one and I’m not even that confident but I I I one thing that did I did notice about this race is that many of these horses have races that they have run that that

Are good enough to win but most of those races that you can say that about were races that were accomplished in front running fashion and we know that the best trip is on the lead every step of the way without pressure and a number of these horses have run really well but

Only when they make the lead they can’t all make the lead here right one horse that I found that a horse that I know doesn’t need the lead to win that can come from off the pace and can handle any kind of pace scenario and actually maybe even

The faster the better is notary and notary is a horse that was claimed for $50,000 last summer at Hawthorne before that you would never necessarily look at him as any kind of graded Stakes horse he was a claiming horse really that’s what he was but he was trained he was

Claimed by a very high percentage trainer right Amo Hernandez and since he’s joined that Barn his numbers have gone from uh you know mid 80s all the way up to the mid 90s which is good I mean and he does it the right way which

Is to say that he sits off the pace and then he kicks home he doesn’t worry about being in front he can be anywhere he’s coming off a five length win in the mud but I know he doesn’t need the mud he won’t get it at oaklan but he’s he’s

Run on Fast ground and the way he’s continued to improve in his recent form for his high percentage trainer and the fact that he’s won a lot of races and he’s won at oaklan a couple of times to me makes not not maybe the most trustworthy of the group so that’s where

I’m going I’m going to go with notary uh to sit off the pace and maybe produce the last run and win the Razer back I agree with you he’s one of the two horses in this race that I’m using on top in my Wagers the 11 notary he’s

Coming off that win in the slot that you talked about let’s give the fans a chance for a look and listen at that one with Matt dinman notary and US Army are kicking away and they’re three ahead of trident hit under a ride third when MAAC

Avenue did not pick up his feet today and then escapologist they’re down the stretch the leader here is notary putting away US Army after the decent pace early for him up top he’s back in second left behind notary opening up on the competition he’s three four lengths

Ahead with a 16th to go notary and Manny esel much the best in the night cap Escape olist rallies on for the second spot us RB third and Jeff you have to uh valate horses against the competition right you say that was just an allowance race and

He’s just an allowance horse but when you look at this particular field there’s one graded Stakes Winner in the entire field of 13 that’s promis keeper and that came into 2021 Peter Pan it’s now 2024 so how much credit do you want to give to a graded Stakes Winner you

Know from over three years ago uh promis keeper does come off a win in the fifth season here at the meet at oaklan he certainly could be the horse he’s a front end type and as you mentioned there’s a lot of speed in this race but

If you’re going to get a horse who’s in really good form Step Up in class and win a race on paper that it looks like is a big class hike this is the kind of situation you do it in where the field doesn’t necessarily equal that 600,000

Grade three kind of purse uh notary in good form could win this another allowance horse I think who could step up and win is Magic Tap for Steve ASM this is one Tyler gaffle owns in the ride coming out of like five six straight mile on an eighth races and

With all the speed in this race cutting back to the Mile in His 16th yeah they’re using the same Finish Line they only use the 16th pole for a mile uh at oaklan but I think just the general tendency of a mile and an eighth versus

A mile and a 16th is for those races to be run at a different kind of tempo and this race is going to be run extremely fast at my owna 16 so I think that natural cutback is just going to force Magic Tap to be a little bit farther

Back and have the field come back to him once they start tiring so I think that horse is going to default into a very good trip and notary with his running style is going to get that exact DP you’re talking about the eight Magic Tap the 11 notary those are the two horses

I’m keying on top in all my exact Theon plays in race number 10 at Oak on the Razer back and in a race where you probably could end up six seven deep if you if you really had to for a multi-race wager I would just try to get

Five with those two I would go too deep in that particular situation and I like they both have good running Styles so if it sets up then you’ve got two horses that have a chance to punch and they’re going to get the setup I I absolutely

Think Magic Tap has to used for the reasons you mentioned he’s a lightly raised CT with upside that some of the others may not have one other point I want to make up is trying to evaluate notary’s last race he took US Army by the throat and put him away US Army was

Coming in from Remington where uh he had won his last two races by daylight the most recent race before that with a 98 Bar number that was a very sharp talented horse that he disposed of and he drugged him off like water off his back so that tells me that notary is

More than ready to take on this group and Magic Tap because of the upside that he has uh pedigree wise his form last year decent fourth in the Pennsylvania Derby he’s got some form that I like and as he pointed out he’s got the style that’s going to be complimented by the

Projected race flow so I think those are the two time now on the first call podcast to preview the big Triple Crown prep of the weekend it’s the $1.25 million Rebel Stak from oaklan local prep towards the Arkansas Derby Kentucky Derby qualifying points on the line and we’ve seen these

Oakw horses have a lot of success at pimo and the pness and of course to the Belmont Stak series uh all throughout the Triple Crown so the rebel Stakes a very important one with a field of 13 and we’ve got a headline runner in here Jeff seagull named Timberlake he’s six

To5 in the morning line coming off a third place finish in the Breeders Cup juvenile but he’s probably best known in his Stakes wins for his champagne performance last year in New York partner challenged Now by Timberlake on the outside fierceness is third three quarters in one 10 and two it is General

Partner and Timberlake Timberlake on the outside General partner continues to battle on as they hit the fur long Walker and it is Timberlake in front General partner back running in second dancing groom moves to third it is Timberlake who’s going to win the grade one champagne and he drew away at the

End to win by four fourth in the Breeders Cup juvenile last time Timberlake will make his three-year-old debut he’s a son of into Mischief Jeff how does he stack up with these well if he shows up with that race he’s going to win that was a terrific

Race in the champagne but again it’s a different condition a one turn mile over a wet track um so he has to prove that he can do the same on Fast ground I’ve always liked him but he’s never been one that I can trust now the first time out

He was even money he was supposed to win his debut at Ellis Park he was all the rage he’s an couldn’t find him he finished sixth uh was beaten 15 lengths um he didn’t break that well but he certainly did not run anywhere near what they thought he was G

To come back so what he was they thought he was goingon to do he comes back in his next start again they Hammer him off the board he’s six to five this time he shows up and if you want to have a treat go back and watch that Maiden race at

Ellis Park and he looked like a superstar he won by nine he just it was a jawdropping performance on the basis of that he to me he was the Gamble of the year and the hopeful I mean how does this horse lose the hopeful not only did

He lose it but he went from an 87 buyer number in his Maiden wi to a 69 buyer in the hopeful so he ran down to their level they didn’t beat him he just didn’t show up so that’s three races now two of which he doesn’t show up and one

He looks like a great horse comes back at his next start he wins the champagne the one we just saw I mean he beats a good field I mean he did it the right way uh you’re in a big number a 93 buyer number so on the basis of that he’s

Three to one in the brsh cup Juvenile and then in that race he finishes fourth get beat gets beat eight lengths he didn’t run that well I mean I’m not saying he could have won or should have won but he should have won a little better than that yeah I don’t know what

To make of him I know he’s got a tremendous amount of talent he I’m looking at the work tab at Fair GRS I don’t see the works myself but I look at it it looks very impressive it’s a little light but I don’t think Brad Cox

Is sending him out here short I think he’s leaving I think he’s leaving a race you know or two in him but he’s had him fit in to win I want to see timberli show up and do what he’s supposed to do and run like he’s supposed to run if

It’s not him if he decides I don’t feel like running again then I’m interested in damatic because we made him a a future star and he’s got that he’s a gun Runner he’s got that Progressive that I like he putting blinkers on I I’m not sure why but I’m sure Steve aspon has

His reasons um and another horse that looked really good visually last him out but again a sloppy track did that move him up or is he just get better so I think those are the two want to focus in on but I hope Timber Lake shows up and

Runs his best race because I know on his best day he’s among the best in the division from a gambler standpoint in this race I don’t want to take the short price off the last thing I saw from that horse wasn’t as good as people thought

He was so he’s got to show it to me and he could win this race and I think he’s a legit top 15 kind of Kentucky Derby Prospect at this point based on some of his two-year-old form and where he ranks with some of the others in the crop but

He’s got to show it now at 3: we don’t know what we’re going to get and at 6:00 to 5 in the morning line and quite frankly may go shorter than that even with the big field size in here I’m apt to look elsewhere in this particular

Spot dtic is a horse you mentioned got a lot of respect for him I think he’s a contender in here but Steve asmon’s got another one that I’m going to get tricky with in here and his name is logos he was expected a run much better than he

Did in the Smarty Jones he was coming off a race there where uh he showed some Pace in there but then he backed up out of it he’s got to get more fit well all the horses from oaklan who ran in the Smarty Jones uh had a chance to come

Back in the southwest he didn’t run in the southwest and the Southwest ended up getting delayed by a week because of bad weather and all the training time that was missed so all the Southwest horses now are coming back on three weeks I think skipping the Southwest is going to

Turn out to be a very shrewd move because now he’s the horse who’s fresh and logos is a horse who after that race they left and went back to Fairgrounds with him and said we’re not missing any training time with this horse logos has been right on his training path since

Running in the Smarty Jones I don’t think this race has got an absolute burner type Pace to it I think it’s just moderate and I think wados is going to be up near it uh Keith asmus and the jockey the son of Steve coming off a big

Four- win day last week and he’s riding as well as he has at any point in his young career confident maybe a little family move in here logos is 20 to1 in the morning Morning Line Jeff and I’m going to take a stab in here he’s my

Pick and countdown to the crown he’s going to be my gamble in this race is he the best horse among these 13 no but you’ve got horses like just steel drawn way outside in the 11 hole again for Dwayne Lucas tough as nails but a tough

Post time for truth is a horse we had as a future star off his debut win for Ron moquet he’s got a lot of ability but he’s got two six furong races and now comes out of the 13 hole that first turn’s going to come up on him faster

Than anything he’s ever ever seen coming out of those two six Fong races and that’s tough so if the 11 and 13 are compromised by the post in here and some inexperience from the outside Runner datic logos the two horses for ASM the six and the nine to me those are the two

Places going to try to beat the favorite in here he’s going to be tough to beat but it I think four to five is what we’re going to see on Timberlake I’m going to try to do it and take a little stabing here and if we can get 20 to1 on

Logos he was only three to one in the Smarty Jones maybe we get a bounce back funny thing is that you mentioned Timberlake and the gamble at six to5 if he wins the race at six to5 or even money do you really care anyway from a

Gam what have you missed out on you know yeah you know so I’m interested from a from a from a fan standpoint to see if Timberlake is as good as I thought he was and if he is he beats me do I care no but damatic to me with the blinkers

On that that’s an interesting move here for for asmos and I understand your your reasoning with laging us the uh the canos Colt who could be forwardly placed and maybe not necessarily in front um he didn’t win his um allowance race in front we know he doesn’t need it so see

That and then damatic with the blinkers and the improving pattern and the pedigree and all that other stuff to me um he’s he’s eight to one I can live with that so um we’ll see what happens in the in the rebel and whether or not

We have a a kind of a performance from anybody in this race that uh puts them right into the the first flight the first group of Derby prospects let’s take our two asms and make an exact Theon out of it you and I in there with with a couple prices uh damatic and

Logos in the rebel Stakes will be our picks on Saturday okay time for our final Stakes race on the podcast today it will be from Southern California santanita park where it’s the Santa Ana Stakes a mile and a quarter on the turf they start on the downhill course come down the hill

Make one lap around these are Phillies and Mayors grade three the older dis staffers in the Philly and mayor division Jeff how do you see this one shaking out well Linda’s gift has really gotten good since coming to California for Richard Mandela I’m not sure it’s necessarily because of the trainer

Change she had been George Weaver back at at New York uh uh a couple years ago and wasn’t all that but she is a daughter of arate they tend to get much better with age um and as he did and uh Linda’s gift has now gotten to a point

Where she’s among the very best if not the best older uh grass mares in Califoria California she won her last two starts the red carpet over a mile and 38 of Delmar she did that gate to wire came back and won the Astra at a

Mile and a half gate to wire but she’s not a need to lead to win back uh in her younger days she could certainly sit off the pace and make a run and I don’t think she’s going to be in front in this race even though they’re backing up from

A mile and a quarter uh it’s still not going to be a fast pace I would imagine Leisure we will be in front but Linda’s giin get sit on the outside just kind of prompt her use her as kind of a Target and then go on with it and the way

Linda’s gift has been running her numbers are RIS she continues to train well I know she’s 5 to2 in the morning L I could live with that so I’m going to go with Linda’s gift to continue her winning ways uh and moving continuing her rise up the ladder let’s take a peek

Back at her win in the Astra quarter pole Yaro between horses Lakota Spirit at the rail top of the stretch and Linda’s gift goes on leads by two musical Rap City in the center of the course at the rail it’s Leisure wear in third they’re coming to the 16th pole

And it’s Linda’s gift by three Musical Rap City clearly into second and finishing well but no one’s catching Linda’s gift today Linda’s gift dominates the Astra musical Rap City second duve day belatedly for third in front of Lota spirit and Leisure wear all right so Jeff’s final gift on

The show is Linda’s gift in the uh Stakes race on Saturday the Santa Anna from Santa Nita that’s going to wrap up our handicapping podcast we’ll be back on Tuesday on its official where we recap a big week and of course International and Kentucky Derby Intrigue in fact International Kentucky

Derby Intrigue when you look at the Saudi Derby and what we might see with forever young and then the rebel Stakes here State side and that huge clash in the 20 million Saudi cup can’t wait to see how that shakes out on Saturday morning once again reminders Eddie EK

Your host in Beat the host this is the eighth and final week of the beat the host regular season take down Eddie for your chance to qualify for the beat the host Championship round coming up in two weeks Jeff this gonna be a lot of fun I

Know you’ll be up early on the Saturday morning to take in the Saudi racing but by the time they get the big race you should be up by then I mean that’ll be like 940 your talk well the DVR will be up um at least for the Arabian races I

Don’t have a high degree of interest in the first three races but I’ll be up for the when the when when the uh the thorough breads start running I’ll I’ll be up and watching and uh I I can’t wait it’s going to be a great day of racing

And not only not only early in the morning here in Southern California but then in midafternoon as well with the oaklan races that’s going to be fun and then I’ll be out at San Anita later in the day for H the big races uh the main

Races at San Anita so it’s a great day of RAC and can’t wait for Saturday if you need me I’ll give you a call bright and early on Saturday morning I’ll help a brother out if you uh no I don’t need you okay I’ll get up when I feel like

Getting up on behalf of my partner Jeff seagull hopefully he gets some z’s Friday night in the Saturday I’m Jeremy plunk have a great weekend good luck in playing the races uh all around the country and around the world com up this weekend we’ll talk to you Tuesday