2024 Cognizant Classic Picks & Bets
Join us for the latest episode of ‘Inside The Canyon’ as we are off a 45 to 1 First Round Leader Winner.
This week we breakdown the 9th tournament of the PGA Tour season. This week we have seven outright picks, including two 100+ longshots. .
#pgatour #golfbetting #golfpicks
All right our final pick of the 2024 cognizant Classic this number absolutely mindboggling for me I was stunned I think the numbers probably changed since when we bet it but 125 to one for this guy he is 11th in bogey avoidance we’ve already talked about how important that is across this course
This guy was one of the top favorites in the tournament last week and he is now 125 to1 I had to bet this man and he is the epitome of driving distance hi everybody welcome back to inside the canyon Eric Van royan was the first round leader he was around all week and
Then yet again on Saturday he pretty much laid an egg Sunday he had an eagle birdie birdie closing out the front nine but just he couldn’t quite do enough to put himself in it in the back nine a tied for seventh finish this week we’re headed to Florida for the beginning of
The Florida swing and what was the Honda Classic is now the cognizant classic and this week as usual we’re going to do a quick breakdown into what should you know about the course we’ll get into the top 10 in my model and then again what
All of you are here for we will get into what are my picks this week for the cognizant classic so without further Ado let’s go ahead and get started breaking down the 2024 cognizant classic last year we had Chris Kirk here and it was one of our first outright winners of the
Season this was the best week I’ve ever had on draftking so I’m really not changing a lot of what I did for my model last year I’m going to trust it and share that with you all this is one of the hardest tests one of the hardest
Courses on the PGA tour outside of the majors it consistently ranks in the top 10 in terms of the most difficult course our es on the PGA tour year in and year out outside of last year we don’t really see the score crank above 12 under par
This is not going to be one of those weeks where we’re looking at how many birdies can you make in bunches birdies are better gained we’re going to put a huge emphasis on bogey avoidance we’re going to see who can scramble who’s good in difficult conditions there is water
Left and right on this course this is a water intensive course the only other three courses that come to mind that are even remotely close to this is down the street EPC Saw Grass home to the PLAYERS Championship TPC Southwind home of the FedEx St judee’s classic and then TPC
Twin Cities home of the 3M open this is going to be a course that with all this water into play you’re going to be seeing players not really hit driver that much so we’re going to look for people that are extremely long off the tea because those that normally would be
Hitting it a long way with their driver they’re going to Club down they’re going to hit Three Wood they’re going to hit four iron five iron and what do you know those people are going to be the ones that can actually hit it longer than those shorter players and with that in
Mind the proximity ranges after that first shot it’s looking at around 125 to 200 yards it’s pretty equally weighted but I’m going to probably put a little bit more emphasis on 150 to20 yards so when we’re breaking down our players this week if they can’t hit it a long
Way we need to make sure that they’re going to be razor sharp from those proximity ranges and while this isn’t a week where POA is on the surface this is still for some reason or another a very difficult course when it comes to putting inside 5T and from 5 to 15 ft
There are a ton of putts that players are going to be left with 5T 10 feet 15 ft for par a lot of the times because they’re hitting it in the damn water and they have to recover and try and save for par all right without further Ado
Let’s let’s go ahead and dive into the top 10 players in my model this week I will tell you one player was missing from the model this week and he’s the best player in the field he is number one in the odds to win this thing Rory
Mroy he’s nowhere to be found in my model something must be wrong but hey we’re going to roll with it CU last year we hit Chris Kirk here so let’s if it ain’t broke don’t fix it number one in my model this week is the runnerup from
Last year that very well could have stolen the outright from us it’s Eric Cole number two is Adam spinson Three is JT Poston four is Cam young five is Chris Kirk six is Russell Henley seven is sep straa who is routinely played very well here eight is Tom Kim nine is
Eric vanroy and I have to say I’m goingon to set Eric vanroy and off to the side for a little bit I just don’t think he can avoid the water and that he is going to to I I just watched him bogey so many damn holes last week when
If he just didn’t bogey those holes he would have been right there at the very end on Sunday and I just I don’t have another week of Eric Van royan in me this week and number 10 is Matthew Pavone the leader of the FedEx Cup standings his stats actually rank really
Really well here and it seems to be a really good course fit I would not be surprised at all to see Matthew Pavone play well this week all right with that said let’s go ahead and dive into the betting board for the 2024 cognizant classic at the top of the betting board
Is none other than Rory maroy a previous winner here he is one of the best golfers in the world I’m going to stay away from him purely because I just don’t want to bet favorites this week I think we’ve all seen what’s happened on the PGA tour this year and none of that
Is really receptive to betting the favorite even if you are Rory mroy and then I take a look at this next tier of golfers cam young Russell Henley Matt Fitzpatrick all great golfers but just not numbers that excite me Eric Cole at 28 to1 sure I bet you he plays very very
Well we’ve been on him before this year as I said you’re probably going to get a chance to sweat a bet and you’re probably going to be on the most popular player of the week i’ bet you he’s probably not going to win uh even though
I do like his chances and he was really close here last year then you get to this next kind of jumbled range between 30 to1 and 50 to one and really the two people that stood out to me that I didn’t bet but I think are really good
Fits for this course Sun JM at 35 to1 obviously he’s won here before back in the the covid year essentially the week before covid started funny enough I was in New York at that time and then Daniel Burger a man who just straight up kills
It here in the State of Florida I think Daniel Burger could absolutely win this tournament however I have my doubts he’s been injured it it kind of makes you think about will zuris at the Genesis a great fit to a skill set a place he loves and
Holds close to his heart and probably will play pretty well I would not be surprised whatsoever if Daniel Burger on Sunday is sitting there with the lead I’m just not sure we can trust him to close out the tournament quite yet after that Ricky fower at 55 to1 was another
Place that I looked former players Champion I think Ricky could absolutely come out of nowhere and win this golf tournament but we’re going to stay away from him this week I do like the number and I gave it some serious thought but ultimately decided to pass Doug gim 65
To1 playing some great golf just not sure he’s ready to break out and get his first win out on the PGA tour as you look at some of the other longer shots Ben Griffin was somebody that I gave some strong consideration to this is a place where the average winner
Over the the last 10 years or so was about 123 to1 we’ve seen a lot of years where you have kind of the top of the board Rory maoy Cameron Young’s of the world winning this tournament and then a ton of long shots 300 to1 150 to1 250 to
One I’ve tried to sprinkle my card with a little bit of you know players that are proven on the PGA tour and have already won but then also a couple of those kind of upand cominging stars that I think this is the perfect place for the to break out on so without further
Ado let’s go ahead and dive into my picks for the 2024 cognizant classic and with my first pick in the 2024 cognizant classic it’s none other than the player that has never missed a cut at this tournament he’s tied for fifth last year he was second the year before at 40 to1
Shane Lowry the Irishman he is seventh in Strokes gained in hard conditions we’ve already covered that this is one of of the top 10 hardest courses on the PGA tour year in and year out and not only has he played well here where we look at the course
History that’s 12th out of around 38 courses in course history he’s played very well at all the other comp courses it’s not a fluke he’s 10th in Strokes gained at TPC Southwind 23rd in Strokes gained at TPC Sawgrass and with his really great finish here never missing a
Cut he’s ninth in Strokes gained here at PGA National now he’s not the longest off the te but the big boy he can hit it pretty far still but most importantly from the key proximity ranges of 175 to 200 yards he’s 15th and from 125 yards
To 150 yards he’s 19th on top of that he’s 36 and strokes gain off the te I think this is a great fit for Shane Lowry on paper and he’s clearly shown us the past couple of years that it absolutely is a great fit for him continuing with that same thing rewind
The clock back to 2022 our next pick sep straa 45 to1 sep straa has already been on the show this year as I’ve told you I’m a big fan of sep I think he’s one of those guys when distance com into play approach comes into play he’s absolutely
Somebody that we’re going to put on our card and at the end of the day I I’m a huge fan of his he’s fourth in Strokes gained at PGA National and again it’s not a it’s not a coincidence he plays really really great at all the other
Comp courses pretty much he’s 31st in Strokes gained at TPC SASS and Ninth at TPC Southwind he’s used to playing in courses where you have to navigate water you can’t have big misses you have to avoid big numbers and you have to avoid bogeys again he’s tied for Fifth and
He’s first in his previous two appearances and when it comes to hitting it close he’s in the top 24 he’s 24th in Strokes gained approach and and as I’ve covered this is going to be a huge week for putting inside 10 feet we need you
To be able to line up and Putt for par after you’ve hit it in the water or you’re scrambling around the whole damn course and sink that par putt we’re not looking for Breezer better game this week he’s 16th in putting inside 10 ft and then 23rd from 150 to 175 yards and
23rd from 175 to 200 yards I’m absolutely a believer in sep straa this week and there’s no coincidence he’s already won at this tournament before we’ll be backing him again this week our third pick in the 2024 cognizant classic is none other than Adam spinson coming in at 55 to1 Adam spinson played
Excellent here in 2022 just like our previous two betters sep straa and Shane Lowry he’s also fifth in Strokes gained at TPC Saw Grass just down the road he’s a guy who can absolutely navigate water he can avoid Bogies he’s 35th and bogy avoidance and one of the best approach
Players in the field not to mention ranking 20th in Strokes gained off the T and when he’s actually getting it on the putting surfaces he’s 11th in putting from 10 to 15 feet Adam spinson is one of those guys where he’s an elite approach player but he also does a lot
Of other things really well a very well-rounded player here if he can avoid the big misses and avoid falling into the penalty area I think Adam spinson will absolutely be there on Sunday all right our next pick I’m not sure he’s going to necessarily win the tournament
He’s already won this year on the PGA tour coming in at 65 to1 Matthew Pavone now you ask why would I bet somebody if you just say I’m not sure he’s going to win well I’m not sure he’s going to win because yes he did win recently in fact
He has three top sevens in his last four starts he’s playing incredibly great golf his stats are probably the best of anyone we’re going to be betting this week I I went back and forth with Matthew Pavone because I just don’t think he’s going to win after winning so
Recently but when you look at he’s never played here by the way before we’ve had debutant winners so that’s not a problem but when you look at his stats they all jump off the page 30th and strokes gained off the T seventh and strokes gained approach first from the proximity
Range 150 to 175 yards he’s fourth in bogey avoidance he is 12th in scrambling he is fourth in Strokes game putting on Bermuda fourth and putting inside 10 ft 12th and putting 10 to 15 ft now go rewind the video to what we talked about at the very beginning in terms of the
Course notes checks every single box and not only checks every single box he’s in the top 12 in every single one of them except for strokes gained off the te which he’s in the top 30 and I’d argue Strokes gain off the tea is maybe the least important out of all these other
Ones that I just went through so we are absolutely pushing the chips behind Matthew Pavone this week I think he’s going to at least give us a sweat but we’re hoping for more with these next three picks our final three picks I really tried to identify some players at
Longer numbers maybe they’ve already won on the PGA tour before or maybe they have not but I think their stats line up well for this course they’re playing Great Golf and even if they have one this is really going to be a breakout moment for either their second win and
Really kind of just pushed themselves onto the scene of the PGA Tour coming in at 80 to one ake baa now a course that absolutely you must avoid the big numbers he is 14th in bogey avoidance and one of the things you’ll notice from the other pieces of my card is I don’t
Really have a ton of people people on the card to this point that are high up in driving distance or distance at all and we talked about being able to kind of lay up off the tea oet is 25th in driving distance so when he takes that
Four iron the five iron or whatever it is safe kind of put it in the middle of the Fairway off the te he’s going to be further than most of the field and I want to get a little bit of exposure to that in case that really does start to
Rear its head and driving distance as important as I think it could be this week he’s also 10th in scrambling we’ve already talked about you’re going to you’re going to have to get it to the damn green however you possibly can with all of the craziness that is around this
Course he’s tenth and scrambling I I don’t have the most gigantic weight on scrambling this week but it’s absolutely important and Chris Kirk was one of the top scramblers in the field last year when he won all right and on top of the driving distance when oay gets it in the
Fairway he’s going to have you know shorter proximity ranges than probably a lot of the rest of the golfers that are in the field because he hits it such a far away so from 125 to 150 yards he’s ninth and he’s fourth from 150 to 175 yards I think what we’re really looking
For from oxe this week is a hot putter which I mean we’ve seen him do it before I think it can absolutely happen and I think what a story OE kind of came onto the scene in this tournament last year if you recall he had taken his shirt off
He was in the mud he was in the water and just got Absol absolutely covered in it and that was the highlight for him last year I’m hoping the Highlight for him this year is he’s lifting the trophy on Sunday and we’re cashing an 80 to1 ticket all right this next golfer second
To last when I talk about an up incomer young guy that I think is yet to break out Justin Su 110 to1 110 to1 what did I say earlier 123 to one is the average winner over around the last 10 years Justin Su checks about every damn box
And he’s already played well here before last year rewind to the end of Friday going into Saturday morning Justin sus out at 10 under par as the leader in the Honda Classic now the cognizant classic now I think he’s a little bit more of an experienced golfer and with
All the damn parity and craziness that we’ve seen this year why can’t Justin Su get it right this year Justin s is one of the best Putters inside 10 to 15 feet inside 10 feet he’s third from 10 to 15 feet he’s ninth inside 10 feet last year he was
Horrendous in putting that is his strength he hit the freaking cover off of the ball his ball striking numbers were out of control but he couldn’t putt that things he does the best so I think if he can Channel this ball striking that he had last last year and just kind
Of go back to his happy place on this course and remember how to putt like he does on every other damn course on the PGA tour I think Justin Su is just as live as any damn golfer on this betting board okay we talked about driving distance exposure just a moment ago with
OA we’re getting a little more exposure here with Justin Su he’s 14th in driving distance one of the top distance players in the field and I think there’s no coincidence to why he played well last year I mean he hits it a long way and he
Is a great putter again he didn’t do great last year in putting but I think he can turn it around he’s third in Strokes gained at this course he’s second in Strokes gained at TPC Saw Grass he’s 29th in Strokes gain in hard conditions I mean all of this is lining
Up for Justin Su to have an excellent week I was waiting for his number to get steamed and honestly if you wait a little bit longer you might get a better number but I wanted to jump on this number before it ended up going down to
70 to1 or 65 to1 or something like that I love Justin saw this week all right our final pick of the 2024 cognizant Classic this number absolutely mindboggling for me I was stunned I think the numbers probably changed since when we bet it but
125 to1 for this guy he is 11th in both boy avoidance we’ve already talked about how important that is across this course this guy was one of the top favorites in the tournament last week and he is now 125 to1 I had to bet this man and he is
The epitome of driving distance Taylor pendrith he is 12th in driving distance so if you’ve noticed these last three picks I’ve really gone from these great approach players great course history to kind of these young young upand comers who are hit it a long damn way off the
Te and are still pretty good approach players or really strong Putters so he’s 27th from the key proximity range of 150 to 175 yards he’s ninth from 175 to 200 yards he’s 27th in Strokes gained at this course and 30th in Strokes gained at TPC Saw Grass again another guy he
Has the DNA of going and playing courses where water is in play and he can avoid him and he can finish very very highly I think Taylor pendri is absolutely live to win at 125 to one I again I was scratching my head but we’ll take advantage of the books here let’s go
Taylor pendrith our last pick of the 2024 cognizant classic let’s burn the damn boats as Kirby Smart once told the Georgia Bulldogs there’s no going back we are headed to the cognizant classic and we are burning the damn boats we are going to win this week just like we did
Last year at Chris Curry
