Emergency Podcast! Constitution Hill Crisis. Cheltenham Musical Chairs and Ante-Post Previews.

Presented by the 2024 Weatherbys Cheltenham Festival Betting Guide: Emmet Kennedy, Paul Ferguson, and Adam Mills react to the news about Constitution Hill’s gallop at Kempton, with his participation now in major doubt. We look at the knock-on effect his potential absence could have, with Lossiemouth and Irish Point potential last-minute switches to the Champion Hurdle. We also provide our naps for the Hurdle races, with agreement from two of the team on the best bet for Cheltenham.

Plus get £5 off your purchase of the essential Weatherbys Cheltenham Festival Betting Guide at https://weatherbysshop.co.uk by using this code FF24CF.

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Podcast or what we should call the emergency Constitution Hill special because the three of us just did our Championship preview for chelham and the second we all got off air chaos chaos as our phones light up the new about Constitution L is not good as we’re recording this now he’s still in but

We’re going to play you the clip of him uh doing his Gallop I sent this to Lizzy Kelly and she said which of the two is Constitution Hill and when I told her no no no he’s not the two at the top he’s in the green out the back she did not

Believe me for well over a minute and said there is no chance that that horse goes to chelam I spoke with Ross malar KD young and George Gorman who of course are regulars on the final front of podcast they all retain hope that he can make it but none of them really believe

That he can question for you then Paul Ferguson is somebody who has interviewed Nicki Henderson on numerous occasions I’m sure you’ve seen the racing TV interview he looked crestfallen not good at all and highly unlikely that he would make cheltam now on the back of that I’d certainly be no expert and not

In the um in this have the same capacity to speak as the people you’ve just touched upon in in terms of horse welfare but um to my eye it didn’t it’s well he didn’t it didn’t it certainly looks like he’d be up against it to say

The very least and I think that was the words that Nicki actually used um he did refer to the fact that he could be over it within a week I only you literally just seen the clip to be honest with the interview said that there’s a chance he

Could be over it within a week on antibiotics but um I don’t know I wouldn’t looking at that you would think um you would think there has to be a strong possibility that unfortunately you won’t be there but never know at this stage um we live hope obviously

It’d be bitterly disappointing if if if he wasn’t turn up because and already weak in terms of strength in depth um Champion edle would look pretty thin on the ground if he doesn’t R we are still waiting for full word about what has happened but Adam there’s a number of

Concerns first of all he’s gone for a race course Gallop you would imagine that’s putting the finishing touches on his Fitness I know that Nikki was saying beforehand that he was pretty much fit enough already but that would have been the final piece of the puzzle and it’s

Gone terribly badly wrong he’s now going to have to be on the easy list for a few days anyway so even if he was to make it to chelam he would still be compromised yeah he would be um I saw a really good um short video from Ross M actually when

He explained about the antibiotic process and it’s sort of they either five or 10 day courses I don’t I guess for for me like judging from Nikki’s reaction on that racing TV interview he looks like a man who’s decided he’s probably not going um so obviously they’ll waai

For the lab results they’ll see what it shows you know he can’t get over it it’s not impossible lots of people I see have been tweeting about how this happened with binocular in 2010 and he was out of chelham and then somehow made it and ended up winning but I don’t know it

Kind of makes a bit of a I really hope he does make it because otherwise this race is even worse than it was before I think we’ll just replace one one to four on favorite with another um you know speaking of someone who had a couple of dirty each way bets on state

Man I’m not not entirely like haven’t lost my mind over it but it’s it’s really sad for racing if he’s not there because suddenly the champion erle well they might as well move it to the end of the card because it’ll just be the most pointless race in Nikki’s defense if

They had run him in the bu which this is the second time he scoped bad in the space of a month month and a half maybe on what he did today in that race course Gallop he would have been lapped so not going to the unibet hurdle makes

Absolute sense but doesn’t that in itself tell you that he’s not going to make chelham because if Nikki has been telling that great interview with Matt brockelbank last week where he’s saying well you you can’t have him he can’t run if he’s not right well he’s clearly not

Right there and if you spent all season saying we’re not going to run him in the fighting fifth because of the ground and it’s close proximity to the Christmas hurdle we’re not going to run him in the unibot hurdle because he scoped bad we’re not going to run him in the Irish

Champion hurdle because it’s an away day on Willie mullen’s playground then how in the name of God could you run him in the champion hurdle on the back of that two weeks later yeah I i’ said I’d say there that was that was another valid points is the fact that he

Has scoped bad um scoped badly sorry when end of January or proberly before trials day so he must have thought he was obviously fully over the effect but something’s obviously been lingering for um a bit of a period of time now which would be probably something I’d be more

Concerned about is like it’s obviously gone on now for a spell of time I’m sure that um Nikki and his team must have thought that he was fully recovered because you wouldn’t you wouldn’t take him to a race course Gallop expecting anything to go wrong if there was any if

They thought there was any chance that I would have thought he’d be kept behind closed doors for um his last couple of pieces of work he would have thought because he would know that there’s you can’t go to a race Co Gallop nowadays without the cameras being on you or

Someone will have um some sort of footage so they must have you can only you can only assume that they they thought he’d fully recovered and maybe maybe it’s completely different different issue but you would imagine that it’s a reoccurrence of the same of the same thing I would have thought and

That then becomes a more alarming concern I would have thought because you say that’s probably been going on now for the space of um well over a month whatever it is that’s uh that’s causing the issue yeah the the yard form has got to

Be a bit of a a pointer as well I think I’m right in saying they had the last 13 Runners six or seven have failed to finish so maybe there’s something in the yard no one really knows hopefully he keeps Serino as far away from constitutional as possible but I guess

It’s they’re not they’re not going to take a risk and the fact it’s happened in public has probably forced their hand in terms of going out straight away and saying we found the issue but I don’t know there’s part of me thinks he’s he’s five to four non-runner

No bet with one firm and that kind of like makes me think maybe I should I should look at that but I’d be I reckon he’s got to be three to one to turn up yeah I’d nearly go even bigger than that actually from just a run they’ve

Had 13 Runners from Nikki Henderson’s yard in the last 14 days one winner six horses have been pulled up in fact it’s seven and they were not massive prices they were 6 to1 11:2 4:1 12:1 9-2 9-2 and 12 to1 Uh something’s not right and that’ll be one of the greatest training

Performances of all time if they can pull it back if I remember correctly wasn’t binocular ruled out of the champion hurdle in January it wasn’t he wasn’t ruled out two weeks before the race no no I can’t remember exactly um but I think it was it wasn’t as close as close to the

Champion headle as this I’m sure it’s a real shame because he would have absolutely crushed this field absolutely laughed at them um look we’ll proceed under the idea that he is going to be there but there’s going to be musical chairs as well because the implication of constitution Hill missing the

Champion hurdle means ly mouth could potentially slot in although Paul does not agree with that Irish point will almost certainly slot in to the champion hurdle um Paul we’ve only got you for another few minutes so let’s talk about your thoughts on the champion hurdle now constitutional is still there he’s miles

Clear on time form I he’s 10 pounds clear on time form and he still has a p beside his name with that 188 where a stateman thereof the opinion 178 is the absolute limit of his capabilities um or the maximum capability that he has it’s also worth pointing out that the

Excellent work paig Fuller does with race IQ shows Constitution Hill gains ground at his hurdles where a statan loses ground so even if if they did meet and Constitution Hill is back to top form he’ll win basically um but I’d agree with Adam he’s odds against even

Make the race now at this point how do you now approach a champion hurdle where stateman has become the odd Zone favorite Paul I think to be honest trying to try trying to look at the race now like minutes after that news has um come through is probably probably not the

Ideal thing to do you probably need best to everyone until I thing is the dust settle and things before you um Dive In by the time people get to to watch this by the time it’s um put out later on there might be a bit more news but I’d

Say it’ be the next day or two before we hear anything else I would have thought I don’t know how how long these things take but I wouldn’t expect I wouldn’t expect any KN jerk reaction right away um look if when we recorded earlier I think we were all and it was unanimous

Caller he he’d win convincing like he did last year in terms of natural ability I’d still go along with that but even if he does make it to the race it’s far from an ideal preparation whereas statan has obviously gone through his season he’s not as good a hores

Constitutional we know that but he’s gone through the season without any issues and one his three great ones um so that would have to be factored in as you say for players we we were talking about who might who might make up the field earlier um and we were struggling

For numbers then and it might well be the case I I can’t see if State man’s there on the day and there’s no reason why he won’t be at this stage um I I can’t see lossy mouth rting from the Mayors personally just just because Constitution I don’t see why that would

Would really make you um make them change the mind and Irish points on the other hand who um yourself and Adam will go on to look at both the May hle and St hle uh I was in the same camp as Adam the Irish point was my idea of the stays

Headle winner um so I’d be slightly disappointed but I could see more reason why you might take a chance now especially if they ground soft um obviously with all Constitution there he’s probably looking only having State man to beat ass Human ly M does still go

With the m hle um where she would look to be the one to beat herself so yeah there’s going to be a small field four five Runners he’d be an interesting runner at this point but I thought prior to this news he would have been at best

Playing for third place um whereas in the sters he looked to held the leading chance with um the same owner trainer combination as T hoo so it’ll be interesting I think we’ll we’ll probably find out more but again I don’t think any any decisions will be made until um

Until Things become clear to a constitution really and who is your pick for the steros hurdle in the absence of Irish Point assuming constitutional is out and then Gordon goes for the champion hurdle with him he think tiu is probably the one to beat there then but

But he would again Proviso um would be soft ground um kambo the open and come on this side of the Irish C but um I had Irish point a fairway ahead of him to be honest he finished 17 and a half length ahead of him in the M off S last year um

And again equally on both upward curves so but again this probably will have an impact on where ourish Point ends up but um for me is best chance to win the chelton would still probably be in the stay as hle and taking on state man personally the good news for me anyway

With the Constitutional development is that Paul is now on my team with tupu but Adam and I will delve further into this only by default but we’ll delve further into this in the stair a little bit later on weatherbe chut Festival Betting Guide is available for you to

Buy right now at weatherbe shop. co.uk or weatherbe shop. the promo code to get you 55 off your purchase of the weatherbe chel Festival Betting Guide digital copy print copy or the print and digital bundle is ff24 CF that’s ff24 cf5 off your purchase of the essential guide for chelham stats Trends

Profiles Rory delari Banker orust uh Sam Turner’s expert tipping inside jff Stafford with some brilliant pedigree angles and of course horses to follow for the spring from Paul Ferguson and Don McLean does a brilliant profile of the Irish Runners as well that is available for you right now at Weatherby

Shop. co.uk do not bet on chelham without Paul Ferguson’s excellent weatherbe chelham Festival Betting Guide Paul would chat you again very very soon my friend cheers guys enjoy the rest of the show Adam in the presumed absence of constitution the interesting to note that the sponsors uni bet who also

Sponsor Nikki Henderson have gone odds against about him now they’re non-runner no they are not non-runner no best I should say uh they go 6 to4 so that’s kind of telling you where where this is heading he is not going to line up or at least it’s highly unlikely

That he does um does anything appeal to you now is this because in my mind this is now a case of first of all I’m kicking myself that I didn’t back State man and I really mean I am kicking myself that I didn’t back State man but

Anyway to me this Market is now just whole madt it is I mean I think so so if they’re if they’re going six to four that probably takes into account the fact that they’ve probably got quite a few multies with him in before before the season started he was sort of four

To six so there’ll be a little bit of that I mean what price should Constitution Hill be now probably he should be whatever price you think he he is to turn up in the race so I think three to one is fair that’s where I’d be

Sort of thinking I don’t really I’m not gonna back a hor I don’t know how what his health is like so but that that probably where I thinking so by that logic if I think Constitution Hill should be 3 to one to turn up then I’ve

Probably got to make statan one to three you can back statan right now four to six there is an angle that says go and have a little poke on statan but I would imagine that price on statan is hinging on the results of this Laboratory test

You know I don’t I don’t want to bet on laboratory tests what one thing I would say is if you wanted to have a bet now or indeed if Constitution Hill doesn’t run then Irish Point becomes interesting to me if I think arish point is going to win the stairs I’ve got to

Think that he’s good enough to at least Chase home statan in the champion hurdle and when I look at this Champion hurdle field let’s imagine Constitution Hill doesn’t run we’ve got statan and then what lossy mouth is definitely going to run in the mays because why would the yard win throw two

Darts at One race when they could potentially win both with odds on favorites so then you’re looking at like well not so Sleepy’s gon to run lovely off the age of 12 I can’t be having him Colonel Mustard’s not good did you did you see the Tweet today I haven’t no I

Haven’t huie Morrison just wins Twitter every single time but today’s one we’ll put it up on on the YouTube for those who are watching it’s uh tiry HRI reaching out to Jimmy carer’s leg when they announced that Brendan Rogers was be okay yeah I didn’t realize that was

Not so sleepy I’ve just seen the picture yeah okay I’m with you now yeah but it’s not so sleepy as HRI it’s brilliant well I mean then you’re starting to look and think I think if Constitution H doesn’t run the Mullins yard probably think about zarak the brave don’t they in

Terms of oh yeah they must be looking and thinking well at worst we’ll Chase home state man so he’s got to become into the mix I don’t think anything else is good enough quite frankly and let’s face it it’s not like State man was a 10’s chance State man is head and

Shoulders Above the Rest and if Constitution Hill doesn’t turn up I’d expect State man to probably go off at two to7 one to four Irish point it’s maybe I’m just thinking that he would win the stairs easily but I’m also thinking the champion hurdle he’s probably the second best horse by some

Distance on the assumption that that the Constitution doesn’t make it so there is probably a little bit of juice in his price from an each way perspective because if you’re looking at genuine grade one performers statan is the big dog but Irish point is probably the next best

But that being said I mean you just you can’t have a bet until you really know with Constitution Hill in my opinion you’d have to because you’re betting on the vet and let’s face if they if they turned Constitution Hill around got him well and he turns up on the day

What price is he going to be still going to be the odds on favorite so it’s just it’s it’s far too much of an impact on the market for me to form a strong opinion what I will say is I think it forces Irish Point into the race I think if they were

5050 unless the ground came up good and they gave tupu no chance Irish Point surely comes here now I I don’t know it’s just such a mess it can’t reach you shouldn’t really have a an instant bet because you know what they might turn around and say five days

Of antibiotics and the Fabs back in in which case he probably still wins but I I just don’t I’m not really sure where where I’d want to put my money right now it’s from what we recorded this morning when I thought Constitution was a certainty State man’s a certainty

Second my logic should be if Constitution heels out the way State man’s a certainty to win the race and I think most people will be of the opinion that one of those two will win the champion hdle easily so do I really want to be trying to find some sort of clever

Each way for the place money I don’t think so yeah I feel obliged to play devil’s advocate here Irish point was beaten by marine nael and the Royal Bond Marine National’s archal aspirations have taken a dent after being beaten in the Irish arle does Barry Connell Fork out the 22

Grand to supplement for the champion hurdle with Constitution ill out of the way no he doesn’t and the reason he doesn’t is because the horse marine National beating the Supreme F Al Vega has been proven to be a bit of a boat so and I

Just think you have to draw look at all the if you look at Marine National’s hurdle form in isolation he beat F Al vager and diverge neither of those horses would lay a glove on state man in a two mile hurdle so you could go to the arle with a good

Chance if you can get Marine nael right or you could come to the champion hurdle and finish second you’ve got to roll the dice for the arle surely and what what do you if if their long-term plans with Marine National are that he is perhaps a champion Chaser of the future or Ryan

Air horse of the future what’s the point in dropping back to a hurdle race now if something happens to statan by all means because if statan was God forbid he was to get injured suddenly we’ll have a 20 Runner Champion her with all these handic rolling the dice because it’s

Becomes wide open but all all that’s really happened today is If Constitution Hill is out then we’ve just replaced one one to four on favorite with another one yeah I think that’s the best way looking at this statan is the most likely winner I I don’t think he has it

All his own way with Irish point in the field and I think Irish point is a serious weapon and I would prefer him in the champion hurdle to the sers but look I’m very biased on that because you know that I’m up to my eyeballs on T poo for

The stairs so get them out of the way please Gordon thanks very much but I actually do think particularly on soft ground he would give State man a real run for his money and I need to look at Paige Fuller’s race IQ Data on Irish point but I know that statan loses

Grounded his hurdles you were saying in the previous show that you didn’t think statan handled the old course as well as he handled the new course which I thought was an interesting angle too he’s the most likely winner but it’s not like he’s going in as the bomb proof favorite that Constitution Hill

Was he he’s not but the the whole makeup of the race changes because if Constitution Hill’s not in there then Paul town in can just take a lead I mean I’d imagine not so sleepy will make the running probably you know would Nikki Henderson run ler in the race if if if

Constitution Hill was not there don’t know she was gonna run she was G to run anyway she was going to run anyway but I wonder quite what the plan was with running her I’m not sure Zar the brave maybe he he’d run and they sorry to cut

Across you but like in the previous show I was tipping shishkin to win the Gold Cup and I’ll be completely H like I spent hours in the form book yesterday hours and I was looking at Barry Connell stable form and going geez I don’t know about how he’s been doing this season um

I think Mouse Morris has had two winners all season in Ireland from 44 Runners he’s had two winners in the UK from three horses to run but only two winners all season in Ireland he has had 13 horses place over hurdles from I think 27 or 28 Runners but I never looked at

Nikki Henderson stats and my God that’s awful like I could not back shishkin for a goal cup if his stable form continues this way but at least I’ve seen shishkin and he’s won a Gold Cup trial and four horses that have won that race in the last 17 years have emerged victorious in

The Gold Cup but this is a long-winded way of saying I wouldn’t like Luchia for this at all given the stable form no I I don’t I mean what I would say if we assume Constitution Hill is out then maybe actually one or two more horses

Might turn up and the reason I say that is because before before this happened you had Constitution Hill and statan what 10 pounds clear with the rest at least suddenly if one of those is out of the way a few sets of connections might look and think well we could finish

Eighth or ninth in a county hurdle or we could finish third in a champ ion hurdle and that might just persuade if one or two more sort of not social Runners but those that are sort of hovering over the handicap route as to what they’re going

To do to think well maybe we we’ll come and have a go now I’m not certain on that of course but it maybe opens the race up a little bit I would still think State man is the most likely winner because without Constitution Hill the race becomes about State man Paul Town

Doesn’t have to think about anything else he can just ride statan the way he’s been riding him and it should be enough the I guess that the other thing I would say in my please Gordon listen to me and run Irish point in the stairs ear is surely if Constitution Hill’s not

There the connections would look at Bob Olinger and think he’s chased home state man once he could do it again maybe now obviously I know they’ve got his anry in mind I think is their big plan and you fair play to him probably but there’s just that little

Voice in my head that thinks well maybe they’ll look and think we could pick up second place in the champion hurdle with him it’s not let’s hope State man makes it because otherwise this becomes one of those kind of like throw the balls up in the air Champion hurdles but I was

Really sort of I I don’t know I just I can’t I can’t make head not out of this race so I can’t have a thought about it the only thought I would agree with what Paul said that there’s no way lossy mouth runs here because surely why would the

Stable take on their own horse if effectively you know that that that’s got to that would be my my main thought is what what would be the point well they might have done it if galam marel had won the other day but suddenly the May’s hurdle hand has gotten

Weaker and they’ve got a reasonable backup in Echoes and Rain like I would imagine this is her final season in training they’ve tried her in the mar a couple of times it doesn’t work I don’t think she stays um over that distance which is ironic cuz she gets 2 miles on

The flat doing handstands but 2 m four just seems to stretch her a little bit um soft ground Willie Mullins with authorized does really well at cheltonham she’s no longer the 40 to1 shot that she was I think she is with uni bet still because they’re not non no

Best but if you’re betting with everybody else uh she’s this is the thing like a horse like echos and Rain would really interest me but you they are pricing up all of these horses as though it’s race day and they’re trying to get them to as close the price that

They would be on race day but that’s not actually accurate and you were talking earlier on about the over round for the rin a which is just embarrassing uh like is it 90% or 80% of the book is taken up by two horses one who definitely won’t run in Al fabiolo

And the other in bambridge who’s a serious doubt if the ground has soft in the description unless this good he he will not run so like EO and Reigns a 20 shot at least on the day and yet you’re being asked to take 16 to one now and

You are almost certainly now going to get a Runners the idea of like that’s the other thing you look at the vast majority of these bookmakers they’re going two places a quarter the odds you will get three places on the day because if he’s not there if Constitution is

Gone everyone’s going to flood this race yeah I think you might find that if he’s not there so like nimian line would be one I’d think of would probably take their chance um you know you again I don’t I wouldn’t want to back any of these each

Way because I think the win price is just wrong most of these horses would be 50s if we were talking win only so why I want to take 20s but there there’s a possibility there I mean this race kind of it’s still revolves around one horse

We just switched to another one statan I don’t think is quite as bombproof but I still think he’s got so much form in the book that he’ll scare off enough to to sort of leave him around that kind of one to three one to four Mark and I think it makes Pan’s job

So much easier because he doesn’t have to think now he can just ride State man like State man who bolts up every time he turns up a leopard’s down so it’s messy it has more of a knock on effect on on probably the sters hurdle because it will take the most likely

Winner of the stays hurdle out because he’ll almost certainly go for the champion hurdle now and why wouldn’t they if you’re gold look and think as long as it’s soft ground we’ve got a great chance in the stairs we’ve got a very good chance in a champion hurdle

So you know it’s sort of it hurts a bit for the stairs hurdle for me because it leaves what I thought was the the most likely winner going to the wrong race but fair play to them I can see why they would do that he’s the bet for me um he’s also

The one horse that I think might stop Bob allinger turning up here but that’s a really good point if Bob allinger was supplemented it’s only I think it’s 22 and a half ground um he has five lengths to make up with statan but say they get

Soft ground maybe even if they got his heavy ground like he’s bolted up in a rail you’re at cheltonham he goes really well at the chelham festival he’s won twice there um he’d be very interesting very very interesting he would do I I think they’d look at it if it’s 20 OD

Grand to supplement in you’ve got to finish in the first four to get that back well I think we can pretty much say Bob Binger is capable of finishing in the first four in the form he’s been in this season the the the scenario in my

Head would be if the ground dried out and they thought by the Thursday it was going to be good to soft that’s when they might be looking at the longrange weather forecast and thinking okay we’ll supplement Bob allinger in because then we can have two darts at stairs hurdle

If the ground turns against T hopu but I don’t I don’t know I don’t really know the inner workings of Rob Cornell that’s GNA sort of all play out but I think what you’ll probably find with the champion hurdle is if Constitution Hill is out maybe one or two who are

Running in the mayor’s hurdle light Echoes In Rain with a bit of suspect stamina they’ll probably definitely go in the champion hurdle suddenly you know you might scrape an eight R of race together but I still think the favorite will win I don’t really I’m not sure I’d

Want to be massively against State man but if the ground was really bad or you know Irish point if he if I knew he was definitely going to run would probably be a fair each way bet because I think you’ll probably get nine to two about

Him something like that well he if he turns up he’s definitely going to be in the three in the absence of constitution Hill yeah I’m just refreshing the page to make absolutely certain he is still that point he is he’s 6 to1 he’s 9-2 at one firm but he’s generally a six to1

Shot you can get 14 to1 about him and that would be my bet because there’s no way he’ll be double figures and he you won’t get bigger than fives on the day and I don’t think you’ll even get that um so for those who are going each way

One two three Irish point is the scumbag each way angle in the champion hurdle um do it Gordon do it because if he’s in the champion hurdle then it makes my bet in the stairs hurdle look a lot better um which is very much tupu who has

Already been cut by one firm into 9 to4 on the back of this news because they’re already anticipating that his table companion will indeed go for the feature race on day one as opposed to the feature race on day three at 3 to1 Irish points still a 7 to2 shot but unlikely

To run you would think crambo for fergal O’Brien who will be on the show tomorrow 6 to1 Noble Yates who won the trial for this on Trials day at cheltam a 10 to one shot surely he needs nine miles these days uh sir Gard a 10 to one shot

Flooring Porter former dual winner of the race and to be fair to him had a setback in the leadup to the race last year 14 to1 and it seems as though his connections are very much considering it the old boy Paisley Park a former winner

16 to1 what does this mean in your mind now now with the Constitutional news for the stairs hurdle with your main selection basically we think being rerooted to the Tuesday do I dare even mention the fact that your real main selection is on the sidelines in France this has not been a

Good race for you basically Adam it’s not I’m just gonna have a cap just start studying the plate I don’t know this this race just I mean the first thing I’d say is oh if Fen was here he’d absolutely he’d win by furong this is such a a weird race Irish points be

Running here but they’re they’re going to be lured by the champion hurdle can just see it and I think Gordon would just love to get one over Willie so I just think he probably will think the other thing I would say with Irish point

He’s only six so you could have a run in a champion hdle now if it doesn’t work out you’ve always got the stairs for next year uh if it’s soft ground I’ll have to join you a team T hopu but I’m I’m just not sold on him I don’t like him if he

Couldn’t win last year’s race why would I back him for this year’s CR crano I think is a good horse but I always would take the view British form is substandard compared to Irish form and as good as he was at Ascot yeah I I can

Make enough holes in that form to make me think I don’t know it is be as great as wonderful as Paisley Park and dashel drasher and champ are they’re all double figures in terms of age they’ve all been around the track far too many times they none of them are improved

So scraping home past them you’d like to think there’s an Irish horse probably with more in the book floring Port is definitely interesting and I think he will probably run here the noises from the yard would seem to suggest they were seriously considering it and I think he’d probably be the pace

Angle so that would that would kind of suggest he’s a little bit overpriced the other one who’s who is overpriced if they came here is monkfish because he’s an Albert Bartlett winner I know he’s got a Gold Cup entry as well but I just wonder if they would

Look at this race and think it might be worth chancing him here certainly got abilities obviously you know pretty fragile I don’t know one thing I don’t want to do is I don’t want to back one of these veterans who’s got loads of miles on the clock you know if Paisley

Park wins great what a story for racing that’s enough but at the same time I don’t I don’t want to be chasing 11 and 12 year olds in a st’s hurdle so what I will say to you is is this is this looks like it’s falling T hoo’s way in terms

Of at Christmas time his two main challenges in the market one of them sadly got injured and hasn’t made it the other one’s going to rot to a champion hurdle you know if he doesn’t win this year emit he’s never gonna win one that I would agree with uh

Absolutely agree with I I would just say this is not the first time that I’ve heard that well if he couldn’t win it last year why would he win it this year iris’s gift iris’s gift was six when he was beaten in the stairs hurdle by Barracuda he

Came out a year later as a seven-year-old and won it and my thought process at the time with this horses first of all he wasn’t given a very good ride by Dav Russell that was not Davy’s finest Hour um and secondly he probably just lacked the mental maturity and the

Full physical development to be able to go through with the STS hardle and the biggest tip for this horse is the fact that the second he beats Imperia pass who at the time Imperia pass was the threat to Constitution ill he was the one we were all excited about as being

The new Champion hurdle kid on the Block and Gordon instantly says and that’s it straight to cheltam because he’s of the opinion that he was just flat after the galmoy that that that he’s just at his best fresh this is his race the big French Challenger is gone his stablemate

Is probably gone he’ll run on the Tuesday so your your big worry is the old boys and it’s been nice to see Paisley Park running so well well this season it’s been heartwarming and frustrating for him not to win I’m pretty sure EML let off let out an F

Bomb the in the parading a chelam the other day when he didn’t quite get up against Noble Yates um like he’s an admirable horse dashel drasher is a lovely horse his trainers someone I have a lot of time for In fairness s De burle won this race

Last year that form actually looks quite good sard de B’s gone to inry and backed that form up by winning the great one there dashel draer has come out this season and won one of the stairs hurdle trials he wins thopu just wins he’s better than all of these and he’s got an

Irish Mark of what 160 161 kbo’s on7 so officially he’s the he’s the best horse in the race um he’s the best horse in the race on time form obviously he’s not because the horse from France has got the best raing but unfortunately he’s not there uh he’s got

Got 174 for time form his oror would be high as well he’s on 172 which is 2 pound clear of last year’s winner sard at berlay he’s a player he’s a player He he’ll be better than he ran the other day he’ll have needed that run quite

Badly it was his first run of the season and it was the exact same thing last season he was beaten 10 lengths that day came out and won the stairs hurdle it’s just a little bit worse this time he’s been beaten 25 lengths by Hidden Valley

Lake and he just the fire didn’t seem to be there but I would not underestimate him at all he’s a dual protemps winner he’s a steros hardle winner he’s a serious player but if tupu can’t beat a 12 year-old sire de berlay then I really will throw my hat at the wall and

Say what are we doing here um and and look the form with imperal pass isn’t like that’s good form he’s then gone and beaten statemen sorry he’s gone beaten Staten he’s gone and got close to stateman and staten’s now the odds on favorite for the champion hurdle with

The Constitution Hill news George Gorman was saying to me I wonder is it Poss possible imper pass gets supplemented with the champion hurdle I’m pretty certain Isaac SED and Samir will be seething that they took him out of chelham because he would at least be second at least he’d be second with no

Bob Binger there um but look we’ll have to see if if they do decide to pump them in and they’ve got the money to do it tupu wins basically and with with all due respect to the British the fact that Noble Yates can beat them like that’s some training

Performance from Mullins and this is not the way this is supposed to go you’re supposed to win a Steris hurdle and then a Grand National not a Grand National and then STS hurdle trials but you can’t seriously think that that means any of those horses are good enough to come and

Win this kambo is the danger he is a threat I’m I’m genuinely afraid of him but I’d be shocked if tupu doesn’t win it this year I think he’s a cracken B at 3 to one I’m gonna throw one at you from really left field or it should be right

Field but a horse a big prize I think will run well in this is a steeran fange now you got to hold me back a little bit because we all know he’s like the ex-wife you look at him for a minute and then you remember why he’s not face

But the the one thing I would say about him is is his cheltam record is not as bad as people make out or in the Supreme orbe it that you know that the old course doesn’t suit him fourth and a supreme ran pretty well in the Turners

Finished third they tried him in a Gold Cup which was just a step too far but what I would say about him is hurdle races on the new course it favors you to get to the outside rail particularly on soft ground and the fact he likes to go

To his right means he’s going to end up on that outside rail he can’t I don’t think he can win but I do think the chelham new course over hurdles will suit him and I think they’ll have to go here because there’s nowhere else really to run yeah he would sort of half

Interest me but it would just be one of those sort of casual bets on the day probably I’d go Place only I don’t think he’s quite got the minerals to win it but he will run well on the new course and it’ll be one of those that everyone

Just thinks because he’s a bit of a headcase will just ride him off but on his day he is quite a talented horse and it’s important to remember his better form is in the spring ran really well at fairy house and punchestown last year or beit right-handed but I wouldn’t be

Entirely writing him off to sort of Hit the frame at a big price but I do agree with you the way this race is falling it’s it’s t hoo’s time everything is in his Ballpark and this is his time to land it to be fair aan fange I think is is he

50s the firms that are not non-runner OBET there’s there’s a bit of 50s out there so you’re talking about a horse that beat monkfish who’s come out and won the GMO hurdle and was second to classical dream at a track he’s basically unbeatable at I would not be putting you

Off that at all and in a open renewal of the stairs hardle and make no mistake it is an open renewal uh albeit that there’s two to my mind anyway exciting Young Horses towards the top of the betting but still if one of those doesn’t quite come

Forward then this becomes wide open he’s massively overpriced um problem is he’s a coastal path and Coastal paths just need everything to go spot on fava was terrific in the county hurdle last year but you’ve seen him since and he just everything needs to go right from him

He’s probably a player in the county hardle again this season by the way because he’s coming down the weights again um Dan Skelton with a horse dropping in the weights no couldn’t be not for gelam down anyone Jesus Christ um you know why Willie Mullins doesn’t win handicap chases at

Chelham because his horses are trying they’re all running on their merits and that’s why he can’t win handicap chases at chelham um son Roy speaking of although your honor may I present son Roy who’s been highly tried this season and hasn’t particularly performed in May well bounced back to life in the grand

Annual later this week or in a couple of weeks time uh but he’s another one like he looked like a champion hurdle winner when he won the county hurdle but he needs everything to go right they all do um but at 50 to1 I would not be putting

You up that’s that’s actually a bet that would interest me um to go and do potentially now as an anti poost play because he will go here and I could see him being considerably shorter on the day but it’s my beloved tupu who is the nap of the championship races for me uh

Which brings us to the mar hdle and look if we’re both in agreement the lasto is still going to run then the key question that I have to ask you but the 7 to four on favorite is will she stay yeah of course she’ll stay I I don’t really have any that’s never

Really been in my head that she wouldn’t stay she’s a great Pretender you know I’ll I’ll be shot for it but I think Benny deir is the best mayor I’ve seen better than any power better than Apples Jade better than any of them she’s a great Pretender she’s better than

Qua yeah I think so because I just think Benny Benny had a bit Touch of Class about her and you know the problem with Benny is really she didn’t she didn’t sort of do it in know in a way that everyone remembers she won a mayor’s hurdle everyone remembers the fact that

Robbie pal made a mistake on stormy Island and cost her the May’s with honeysuckle no no one ever looks back and says Benny deu went to France and she didn’t just Buri she buried Debon Cor in the French Champion hurdle and dbon cor most most of the French that I

Speak to thought she was bomb prooof and Benny just went yep I’ll go I’ll go for it a away day and I’ll beat you but anyway shot fired Nikki there is there is a kind of look at I look at ly Mouse pedigree yes it’s great prend there but

The danam won over 12 Furs on the flat on heavy ground she’s got a half sister by Cinda who run over two mile three in France but I I think the the biggest point to this is we’re all thinking she’s got to stay a really stiffly run

Two and a half miles at cheltam I look at the makeup of this race and think there’s no massive Pace angle there’s not four out andout Front Runners does she really need to be a dow stayer this isn’t three miles this is two and a bit on the old course and I

Just think all that Paul town has got to do is keep her in contention because if this race was over two miles what price would she be what four she’s she’s definitely the best mayor in this race she’s got the best turn of foot she’s

Got the best form in the book and the way she won the other day it wasn’t like she limped over the line she’s going away from them I I I don’t really have any doubts about her staying I certainly don’t want to lay her yes G gam Maro

Bombing out is a bit of a shame but I think we sometimes forget G Maro had a flat career and ran as a two-year-old and she’s basically had three years of almost constant training so we can perhaps forgive that maybe she’s already peaked or maybe she needs more time I’m

Not sure but then if you question what gam Maro did the other day suddenly you start to pull holes in the form of Astro diamond lossy mouth will definitely run here because this is a penalty kick in my opinion and the only thing Willie is

Chancing is will she stay the trip but I don’t think necessarily this is going to be an endtoend Gallup last year’s race was pretty steadily run the first two were prominent throughout so ly mouth is really exciting and I just I I think she’ll stay and I think if you look at other

Horses that have won mayor’s hurdles their stamina wasn’t as important as some of their speed you know honeysuckle was a speedy enough forse to win two Champion ERS afterwards vom V mag won this she had the speed for two miles Annie power would have won this she had the Speed for two

Miles it’s it isn’t it isn’t the kind of race that’s sort of a desperate Gallop that’s horses don’t win the mayor’s hurdle and then go up to three miles with the exception of kaga but it is it is the kind of race that I think there’s

No obvious Pace it’s going to be run at a steady enough clip and I just I just think lossy mouth wins I don’t really want to take her on there there are a couple that interest me at Big prices I think Henry de bromad will be hoping and

Praying that it pours with rain he’s got Hispanic Moon who obviously beat G Mar the other day I think she’s a little bit overlooked actually she’s got some good form in the book she’s got entries in the co Cup and the Martin pipe as well I think cheltam should suit but I will

Have a little alarm Bel she’s won six times and five of those wins have been right-handed so she’s run okay left-handed it’s not like she can’t go this way around she could run well the other one is lantry lady who’s the real unknown so two runs in two seasons but

She’s W them both Emy de bromed said after the win at Goran that he thinks she needs it soft but I think if the rain came they probably take their chance she could be anything really she’s probably a little bit overpriced but it’s another one of those races

Where if I think the favorite is a fair price at four to six four to seven should I really be having an each way bet when I think the win part is probably wrong maybe not but yeah I have no doubts about staying I think lossi is

By far the most likely winner I think she’ll stay and I think if she wins this there’s nothing to stop them then coming back to two miles if they need to I would agree with all of that um I’m just looking at my WhatsApp which is bizarre it’s on the

Screen here um after you made that point about Nikki Anderson having seven horses pull up uh in the last few days a friend of mine sent me a WhatsApp not knowing we were having this conversation saying the exact same thing that it’s 8 days since he’s had winner

So uh bit of a question mark the the two horses that I was Keen to to talk about at Big prices are love envo who ran a massive race in this last year and Marie rock my enthusiasm for Marie Rock would be tempered by the fact that Nikki’s

Horses are not going particularly well at the moment but he’s got time to pull that through and I’m pretty sure this happened before where his horses weren’t running well and then suddenly great example is Aiden O’Brien uh couldn’t Buy winner heading to the 2,000 guine and then Glenn Eagles absolutely bolted up

And they never looked back um so things can change but it’s not ideal um Marie Rock has run to a rating that would be equal in recent Years anyway at least at anry to5 a Racing Post rating of5 which is what lyo did the other day um love

Envo as of course I’m very keen on back on soft ground there can’t be any good in the description it has to be soft she has nine lengths to make up with l from the other day but going up and trip to a race that she ran a career-high in last

Year you’d imagine Harry fry can get her back to that level they’re going to sell her after this she’s going to be sold at the anry sales because she’s part of the N fely racing cic they don’t do bloodstock they don’t breed do breeding so she’s going to be a wonderful

Broodmare for somebody um doesn’t necessarily mean that she’s going to win this race but even if she came back to the very best that she had last year do you think that would be good enough to beat lasso assum you’re all right and she will

Stay I don’t think he will but I do think there are a couple of positives you can take the fact she’s going to the sales actually means she’s gonna be primed for her because this is it this is the last run of her career if they

Thought she can’t win a May’s hurdle you wouldn’t run her you just okay we go to sales why would you take the risk what I would say about last year’s race is it was a pretty steadily run Affair I thought she got a really good ride from

Johnny Burke and it it kind of developed into sort of the front two were able to control it now that scenario is very possible again because there’s nothing in here that’s going to go off like a scoy cat maybe ashro Diamond goes forward but I think I could definitely

See La envo hitting the frame without doubt what I would be concerned about is if she jumps the last and lossy Mal for example he’s on terms with her I think we can all agree that lossy mouth is a faster horse and mouth has got much more

Improvement to come I don’t think she’s peaked whereas I think love Envoy has and we know where she is but that being said I think love Envoy is a much more interesting proposition than Marie Rock the Henderson yard I I don’t mind the fact they haven’t had that many winners because

Realistically in the Le weeks leading up to chelman what is he actually running he’s certainly not running his best horses I think Nikki generally gets as far as newb and then it’s kind of that’s it if you haven’t run before then you’re not likely to go

But the the the six or seven that have pulled up is a real kind of alarm Bell for me if they if they’re not finishing the race that is a bit of a a concern but more with Marie Rock I just think she’s had enough chances she’s had

Enough chances I don’t I don’t really like her attitude in a battle I every has got a fall perfectly right for her and I just think if she jumped the last on terms with one or two horses there are far there are more Mayes in here with better attitudes than she’s got

So yeah love Envoy is is it wouldn’t surprise me at all if she finished in the frame but I think lossy mouth has got to underperform or not stay for lav Eno to get a better of her and to be fair it’s a great performance from Marie Rock after getting thumped by Bob

Allinger in a race that she had won previously the rille to bounce back and beat last year’s mayor’s novice urle winner you wear it well at Doncaster the problem is you wear it well is then stuffed at odds on on her next start and I mean battered now maybe those two things

Don’t equate and you were at well just had a really bad off day for jimy Snowden but it doesn’t exactly fill you with confidence I do think she’s interesting though as a former winner of the race for Nikki Henderson with niik de boinville on board 16 to1 is is

Intriguing to me I think love envo is intriguing I’m probably more in Harry Fry’s Camp than I am Nikki’s and very concerned about the way Nikki’s stable is at the moment uh of the championship hurdlers that we have talked who are you most confident about for chham 2024 my

Friend well I’m most confident about lossy mouth out of all of them I think lossy mouth is I just think she’s bulletproof myself but you know I’m happy to be proved wrong but I’ll just I have this kind of view that I’ll just stick with winning horses until they’re

Beaten when when lossy mouth genuinely gets beaten then I’ll know where she is but right now I just think she’s she’s a class above the standard of Mayor in that race so all I’m really having to worry about is will she stay the trip in what will probably be a field of 10

Without an out and out Gallop being set I’m quite happy with that I I I will still stick to the to my case that Irish points should be running in the stairs and if he is he’d be one of my strongest fans wi of the festival so therefore if

I think he’d win the stairs doing handstands I’ve got to think he’s got a decent chance of at least finishing second in a champion hurdle how I would probably play that is I don’t want to be getting involved antios where I don’t know what what the favorite’s going to

Do or who’s even going to be the favorite but I might look on the day and think statan and Irish Point are probably a fairway clear of the rest and I’ll just play a reverse forecast because the worst case scenario is I’ll get my money back

But it’s not a strong fancy because I just think he’s not a TW mile horse I think they’re forcing him to be a TW mile horse but if you take into example he’s he’s beaten a few years ago midley but he’s beaten IL fron in a grade one

Bumper IL fron is a threemile chaser who’s going to win the French Gold Cup and probably win the King George as well nothing there in the way that race panned out would suggest to me I didn’t watch that race in 2021 and think there’s the F there’s the future

Champion hurdle winner I thought there’s a really good staying Prospect I can’t argue with that I can’t argue with that at all um I’m going to recommend a patent but this comes with this is going to wind you up now by the way and it’s not

Designed to do that at all um but this is very much at a risk because this I think you have to do this not non r no best I non run bets a great concession if you want to go and be absolutely certain that you can get your money back

If your horse doesn’t line up which is obviously a terrific advantage to have but you’re not getting the fair price that you should and I think for most of these horses you will get a bigger price on the day not all but the majority of them the markets will be much more

Liquid and much more competitive on the day so proceed with caution is what I’d say so this is with the caveat that your money’s gone if these horses don’t turn up Irish point for the champion hurdle is the first one um and that’s not designed to to piss you off my man but

14 to1 is just too big and and I’m pretty certain he will go I’m fairly confident ly mouth will win the Mars hurdle but I don’t have much of an interest in backing anything at oddson at sheltonham and love envo I said this earlier in the season if she

Can bounce back to the level of form that she showcase last year she’s in the first three at least and if laimo doesn’t stay for some reason then she wins I think um and she’s 12s is that right we’re getting twelves oh we’re getting 10 oh [ __ ] they’re starting to

Cop on um which then brings me to the absolute Banker of the championship hurdle races and maybe the best bet of all the championship races too wins all the dangers I’m pretty sure we sent the snipers over to France to take out telm and then we incepted Gordon

Elliot’s mind you know what Gordon you don’t he was dreaming soundly we put put on the Inception equipment you don’t really want to run Irish point in the stairs hurdle you want to run him in the champion hurdle and away we go so tupu

This is his year this is his time and he will win the stairs hdle uh Adam Ms you’re going to be back with us for more chelham chat in the next couple of weeks uh we’re going to have hopefully stable tours with Henry de Brad and Ferg L

Brine to come your way very soon uh Katie and George will be back in the podcast giving their Insight Lizzie Kelly will be here with us very very soon as well uh giving some expert insight and I’m sure we’ll have round of Willie mullen’s Bingo and Nikki Henderson’s stable form watch on the

Show as well it’s a mad day we had done this hours ago everything was Grand it was all cool Cal and collected it was all gravy and then it was absolute chaos as Constitution Hill fell over the line in that race course Gallop I hope he’s

All right if he can make the race that’s brilliant but proceed with caution thank you for watching thank you for listening look after yourself and each other God bless