2024 Cognizant Classic Best Bets, Odds | Fantasy Golf Picks | Golf Outright Bets, Placement Markets

Pat Mayo, Ben Rasa & Byron Lindeque give their 2024 Cognizant Classic Best Bets with their Gold, Silver and Bronze Selections.

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INDEX

00:00 Intro
3:37 Gold
15:39 Silver
33:15 Bronze
38:22 Outright Picks
43:48 Weather

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What you’re saying Ben is that at Mexico in Resort courses you want the guy who’s got like six sex Wings in his bedroom and when you get to the Honda Classic you want the guy who’s doing it missionary that’s right Strokes gain sex Wings is also the Pinnacle of golf stats

That we we haven’t got there yet but we’re close and once we get that uh I think it’ll be pretty much solved ENT of half experience half experience half experience P Mayo experience experience welcome to the pat Mayo experience cognizant classic Best Bets gold silver bronze come we tried

This show about a month ago and it did really well we went four and two with our picks all at plus money so a great winning week hopefully we can continue to put that forward every single week with the Best Bets for the golf tournaments if you want to go to live

You can do that you want to go to the DP World Tour you can make one of your bets from there as well it does not matter as long as you have three of them and we’ll figure out which the best ones are throughout the course of the show smash

The like we you’re here download the podcast sub to Mayo media Network and become a member right now fantasy national.com Mayo 20% off we got a signature event we got the players we got the Texas run then we got the Masters and that was a great time to get in on fantasy

National.com in order to get that 20% off and you know use all the tools it worked for me last week with Jake nap hopefully we can go forward and actually hit some winners first up razza from both stochastic decom and odd shopper.com sir are you ready for

This I I think I am uh I’m interested to see how this goes I haven’t done this format before but it seems pretty cool and the cognizant classic what a name so yeah I’m ready I’m ready I like the Florida swing Byron atth model Maniac rotoballer.com has did the name changes

Like screw with your Exel sheets no because you know when you’re the model Maniac you have a value assigned to the tournament itself not a name no I’m just kidding um it’s it’s been fun but it has screwed with me on shows so we’ll definitely be doing the

Cognizant Honda Classic this week and kind of winking and and dinking our way through this thing all right well let’s try to jump in I gave out some outrights with Jeff on Monday people can go check that out if they haven’t already and I’ll have the full newsletter set of

Bets when I finalize everything after I do the show with Tambo on Wednesday sub to the newsletter it’s free it’s down in the description the course preview is already up and the initial bets are all written up in there as well but I bet Fitzpatrick at 33 uh and his number kind

Of cratered in a lot of spots I saw him down to 22 but there’s still like there are 30 still hanging out there on them Byron like I don’t actually have the most faith in fits I I actually kind of have more faith in Tom Kim this week

That I might cash that out and go with Tom Kim instead would you ever do that because then of fits wins you feel like a [ __ ] um I feel like you should feel like a [ __ ] just betting fits in general right now as an outright but I’m

Just coming off the top ropia it’s early over in the central time zone so ignore my my nuances yeah but I bet Tom Kim myself so I’m rocking the Hawaiian your shirt for you Pat I’m trying to get back in the Vibes that we had the Jake naap

Outright last week you on the beach if I had a bit more time I would have had a beach background here and topless but you know I just went with the wine shirt in in that regard Tom Kim seems like he can just kind of pop and win this

Tournament I have won myself so Fitzy seems like one of these guys like keki was last two weeks ago where if you just kind of keep betting him hoping that he pops he will at some point potentially but nothing’s really showing you that Fitz is going to play good golf this

Week outside of the fact that he woned Harbortown when he was pretty much playing like similar golf leading up to it so I I don’t know it’s it’s all over the place and we don’t know who’s going to play well this week at of course that

We never know who’s going to play well anyway yeah Ben would you ever cash out a bet just to bet someone else at the same number like could you deal with being wrong on that no so like yeah I have I’m working with there’s too many

Life factors where it’s like even if I won the the downside of missing a guy where it’s like I actually bet him and somehow I didn’t end up betting him would be too much uh so if if I bet him I’d rather lose the money than than have

It cash out and then somehow him win that would be too much all right well do you guys have any like so Byron you’re in on Tom Kim who are you in on so far this week man so for what it’s worth I do have a

Fitzy ticket uh but I like I went I went to my Bez is going to win eventually I don’t know if it’s gon to be this week but it’s gonna happen eventually uh I still see some like 60 to ones senson at 55 uh were those were two of those kind

Of like guys I’ve been betting that they’re showing some signs and I don’t want to give up just yet um now if Rory dust the entire field he dusts the entire field you got to just kind of live with that but to me I’m sticking with two of my two of my

Favorite guys in 2024 and Bez and senson I looked at that entire range Byron like 30 to 60 there must be like 55 guys between those two WS they didn’t know how to price anyone besid they’re like we know that Rory is the favorite we have no idea what to do with anything

Else like benan opened at 40 to1 he’s been bet down to 20 in some spots like yeah good I mean it’s great if got the 40 I just don’t think that Ben an’s going to win so I didn’t want to bet him at the 40 anyway I feel like if he’s

Ever going to win it’s going to be like 80 to one or something like that and I I kind of gave a look to some of the guys that Ben just mentioned like Bez and senson and I still might get there like Luke list pavon like I can get pavon at

60 right now like when I look at my stat rankings he comes out pretty high he’s leading the FedEx Cup I feel like most people don’t even know that at this point but it’s this weird tournament where a I’m terrified of Rory dusting everyone and just showing up and playing

Like like a Rory B minus game this week ends up winning this tournament although the field is much stronger than it normally is at PGA National and then you have a bunch of these guys in like the 30s like Lowry and I I bet Burger Keith Mitchell’s right there like do do we

Ride his form I did I ended up betting him and then you have all these guys from 100 to one and Beyond being like yeah this is the kind of tournament that these jamokes can win at the same time like Bobby Mack or Carson young like

Those type of guys that I ended up getting in on so I just don’t know what to do with my card this week it’s it’s one of the most confusing weeks I can remember in a long time it’s a high volatility tournament so I’ve gone with the engage a principal

You mentioned the guys from 30 to 70 I’ve got six of them and I’ve got two guys in the triple digits so I’m just trying to try and compile the eight dogs and hopefully one of them gets the quarterback and hope we can win it that way Rory could be the quarterback and

Just completely just Patrick Mahomes us and and just you know slice and dice us but it’s a risk we’re willing to take I think if you’re betting Rory every week you’re probably going to make less money than betting everyone against him so I’m okay with that situation Chris Kirk as a

Returning winner here Benny an I feel like he’s been close a few times he’s played nicely here in the past he played nicely at the Sony he’s actually really good on these shorter courses Daniel burer it’s actually my two-year anniversary when I started root baller and I rode up Daniel burger for the

Honda two years ago had a five shot Vic five shot Victory five shot lead going into Sunday and I’m like damn my first article is looking good nope Danny Bur finishes fourth somehow hits it in the water in the middle of the monsoon um so that’s that’s a Redemption story for me

This week went with mat Pavan I think he’s he’s gonna however you say his name gonna play some good golf this week again and then Tom hogi horrible course history but he’s also just playing far too good right now to kind of pass up anything in the 60s for Tom hogi who’s

Arguably one of the best iron players in this field this week yeah he was the one that was the most difficult for me to figure out because even when I was trying to figure out my my gold silver and Bron picks in terms terms of placements and top 10 and top 20s that

He just presents a lot of value this week like every stat points to him then you just look at the course history it’s like I I don’t know what happens when this guy gets to this course in particular like he was able to be all right at the Players last year and he

Ended up firing like one of the lowest rounds ever at Saw Grass and that’s not a place where he had historically played well so maybe Hog’s just one of those guys where you just back him and you you have to deal with the fact that he might

Be seven over after two holes yeah he’s outright it’s fine you know I was I was contemplating him as a top 20 which I won’t be doing this week I think that’s too much like risk involved there compared to the course history we’ve seen from hogi but at

66 it’s fine you know it’s a little bit of change it’s one of the one of the seven eight guys I’ve bet you know let the other seven guys do their thing if he completely implodes Ben do you would you prefer to bet Rory to win or Rory to miss the

Cut uh Rory to miss even though I’m the biggest Rory guy Rory to anyone to miss the cut in Florida because it’s a couple of shots that are one foot left and you’re in in actual water it’s not like oh you’re just in a bad situation and

That the high variance nature of that if there are couple water balls just randomly on Thursday or Friday you you can just miss uh anyone is is in danger well I’m looking at the fantasy National simulator right now really likes Rory but doesn’t like Rory at seven to one

But does have him as a huge favorite in this field and like even when you take a look at the simulator odds it’s Rory then Eric Cole Eric Cole somehow here this week and then Carson young and Tom Kim are the guys that pop up with just weird coar fits here so that’s

Going to translate into my gold pick for the week I’m just going to try to take it easy try to make some money here plus 220 Carson young to finish inside the top 30 he’s gained on approach in three consecutive weeks uh even at courses where I wouldn’t have expected him to

Play all that well I expect him to play a bit better in Mexico and like when you see his splits it’s really strange he plays really well at easy courses and really well at hard courses if it’s like average difficulty he’s got no answer for that he plays pretty well with no

Wind and pretty well with a lot of wind but not with like kind of a little bit of wind he’s just he’s a very peculiar player but he is the type of long shot that I like to take at a course like this he’s extremely accurate off the tea

So listen anyone can hit into the water at any time but trying to mitigate some of that risk in a top 30 bet off the tea I think is going to be pretty key for him so he can keep the ball dry that’s great he was almost first round leader

Here last year I actually did bet him as first round leader as well at 110 to one I’ll have all of those in the newsletter as well but the irons are hot he keeps the ball in play off the tea and he is one of these guys that we haven’t seen

It as much so far this year Ben but he went on a streak last summer of gaining on the greens in like 11 of 12 events and it was nice to see him get back on track in Mexico with the flat stick last week because when you go and do all of

The research on this course it’s like course doesn’t really make a difference because as you mentioned like one one foot to the left one yard long and your tournament is absolutely blown up and that just happens uh and no one’s going to have that sort of consistency

Year-over-year at this course or most of the Florida courses where know he’s at least comfortable with playing here I’ve seen that that’s positive I like his skill set and with the way that he gained on the greens last week throughout the course of last year and at this tournament last year I think

That you need to ride a hot putter CU When you see the leaderboard at the end all the guys who gained five strok butting no arguments for me Carson young is on my little list here when I when I jot it out he’s plus money for a top 40

As well uh just to throw that out there and I I was over the field on him in DFS purposes uh I’m with you I I have no push back on Carson young this week he’s not on my outright card but he’s a guy I really do expect him to get through this

Cut and play pretty well Byron would you take Carrison young over cam young as a bet I would probably because of the odds and stuff I right now straight up it’s it’s a 5050 call in my opinion you know just kind of based off what Cam’s been up to the last little

While I’m it’s really early in the morning for me and I’m taking some really hot takesure but um I would probably take Carson young too he’s just playing such good golf right now and he’s he’s consistent you know I think Cam’s been way over the map and just a

Little fun fact on Carson young for a top 20 he’s the fifth most profitable returner in that market he’s lost in every other Market outride top fives top 10 but he’s going to return you close to $500 over the last 12 months if you bet

Him top 20 to win 100 so I love where you guys are going there I’ll be betting him you know I’ve got tons of bets that I’ll be doing in my article but he’s not part of my three but he’ll be part of you know he’ll be in the top 20 Market

There for me for sure so yeah I’m easing into the gold picks you know plus 220 is nice I mean I who wouldn’t love to hit a plus think about if this was football like people same game parlay four legs together to get a plus 220 in a lot of

Situations probably not got the best same game parlays if you’re putting a four banger together for a plus 220 but for a top 30 for a consistent player I’m on board with it that’s why it is my gold pick Ben do you have a gold

Pick Bez it’s just all Bez uh give me Bez for for a top 20 you’re getting two and a half to one plus 250 I just love everything about it uh I think this is a good course for him the irons have been absolutely fantastic we saw him nearly

Win now there’s always the caveat he has to survive off the T it doesn’t matter if you can’t get the ball in play uh and I do worry a little about him off the team but three straight top 30s coming into this I I just like the course I

Like the game I like the fit and I like the number um I really think that Bez could almost be wheeled this week from from outrights all the way to matchups depending on the numbers you get so might as well just fully fully coffin myself early here and just go Bez plus

250 for a top 20 did Byron did you think it was going to be you who picked the first South African not Ben it the chances were good I’d say they probably almost better than what Bez has for a top 20 but I I do have a bear pick

As my bronze pick so we’ll wait to to get there um not to to get the cat out the bag but um I love him I love him a lot this week he’s playing some good golf man he’s playing some really good golf and we know he like like Carson

Young he’s probably an even more extreme example of someone who could like even if he doesn’t have his aame T to Green he always has the out he might just gain eight Strokes butting facts he’s he’s a beast man he’s a complete beast on the greens and I’m

Kind of curious as to what’s happened to he’s around the green play I know that the more you know the better your irons are the less you you can gain around the greens but he’s just in general not being that solid chipping and and like bunkering himself around these courses

Lately and he used to be insanely good around the green I’m kind of curious as to if he’s been working too much with his irons or what but when he gets that part of his game figured out out boy oh boy is he going to be he’s going to be

Something to be feared at at his like molasses pace of of a golf swing and 290 yards down the Fairway but he also needs to work on his distance a little bit I don’t know he just refuses to do that but I love everything about him I think

He’s leading the field over the last 24 rounds in approach this week which is incredible so let’s go Bei yeah I I shrunk it down to 12 rounds Ben on fantasy National and I looked at the two key buckets in proximity like we know he’s a really good wedge player but 175

To 200 he’s fifth in this field in 15th from 200 plus which I thought was just shocking that he’s hitting his long irons so well third in approach overall the only push back I have against Bez and what makes me worry about him this week is a everyone loves Bez myself

Included and everyone on this panel included the fairways have not been as airtight as they once were like he went on a stretch even last year where he gained against the field hitting Fairways in 15 straight events and it’s been spotty the past basically since the season start basically since Shriners

Like he dumped a bunch at Shriners not hitting any Fairways like he barely hit any Fairways in Phoenix at the farmers that’s one where you need a bit more distance and you really need to amp up what you’re doing off the tea but it hasn’t been as automatic that he is just

290 down the Fairway anymore that if he starts spraying it a little bit I do worry about him slightly that’s the concern definitely I’m hoping that you know here he can distance is certainly not a prerequisite that he can maybe tone it down and and up it a little because that everything

That we’re talking about that’s going well for him is all irrelevant if he can’t survive off the T you have to do that uh I think he will but that is the big red flag for sure gold pick Byron let’s hear it all right so over the last 12 months

Scotty Sheffer is the only person in the world or on the PGA tour that has gained you the most dollars back in every month Market top five top 10 top 20 he’s lost you so much outrights but the second best player to have bet in any Market is

Russell heny top 20 he’s gained $774 in return if you try win 100 every week it’s a clear-cut second just behind Scotty um no one else is nearly as close to him in any other Market it’s incredible what he’s been up to and they continue to just give us plus money odds

On a Russell Henley who finishes inside the top 20 at about a 60% CP over the last 12 months he’s played fantastic golf at this golf course over the years I mean if you take a look at what Hy’s been up to it’s just been I think

There’s a top 24 in there and yeah it’s been top 20 top eight top three the last three times he’s played at this golf course so I mean we’re getting great course history for heny he suits his course very well his irons are pretty dialed from 125 to 200 he’s the most

Accurate golfer in the field you know you’re just getting every single box checked and we’re getting plus money for a guy that’s just been just AB absolutely killing it in that market so I love Russell Henley in that department what could absolutely go wrong with everything checking the boxes the way it

Has but you know such is life being on a show like this yeah and you get him back on Bermuda where he actually has a chance to gain Strokes putting for once yeah and he’s really good like short game too you know he can scramble pretty well so he’s he’s just he’s solid

He’s just so solid but he doesn’t do anything better than like top 10 though that’s the thing like he’s just this he’s so comfortable in in like 11th to 19th Place it’s weird all right so those are the gold picks I like Russell Henley too there’s no way you’d ever bet him

Out right here at his number right now like what would his number have to be do you think that you would bet him 40 45 50 yeah I would I would say that’s a fair number because there’s emotional pain involved with Russell Henley outrights like razza said like if you’re

Cashing out there’s an emotional investment that has probably more waiting than actual Financial especially with Russell Henley the guy could be like he was doing at the Sony again this year winning the tournament and then out of nowhere just like he just lets you down and at the window like we’ve

There’s like he’s the Red O Chili Peppers of the PJ tour because there’s just Scar Tissue everywhere you look in his in his like track record and it’s just brutal stuff so 50 to1 or better um Russell Hy outrights yeah so I I have him clocked right now at plus 115 for a

Top 20 and that includes ties so my market that I’m looking at right now Ben at uh bet 365 has ties included so in my numbers the plus 220 on Carson young even if 80 guys tie at you know t29 he’s going to get the full 220 payout was

That the market that you were looking at for bz at plus 250 or was that without ties uh so that’s always a good question with with the Dead Heat rules and what whatnot um I think you have to shop it but the number I had was on

FanDuel um so still I I think when you look look at these numbers that’s the beautiful thing about golf I mean it’s actually a blessing in a curse not to take the show on a tangent go ahead the Ben Cam’s not here you need to do it

Okay well I’ll just say this it’s getting ridic like Sunday I’m watching the putt go in for a guy to to win the trophy and I go to Twitter and and 15 people are like here’s my top 35 bets that I already placed for like the numbers are getting nuked earlier and

Earlier it’s crazy right now how much movement there is like even on a Monday I feel like I missed the boat on several guys this week and I had to pass Benny on being one of them because not backing him now and I I missed I didn’t wake up

At 3:30 in the morning on Monday to place that bet it’s just it’s been outrageous lately would you go crazy yeah I was say Byron because we talked about this if people haven’t checked out the show that Byron and I did last week two weeks ago

Whenever it was it’s up on May media Network it’s up on the Pod feed about even things like dead Heats each ways and you know what are the most profitable markets like because I’m looking at Bez without ties for the top 20 at plus 200

Do you think that 50 cents is worth it to not take the ties no I think that like we said you know when when it gets into the plus money territory you just take the ties I think rule of thumb is you take the first number of the plus and and go

Times it by three so plus 100 would be three plus 200 would be six you got to get those extra 60 points for plus 200 in order to make it kind of be a r of thumb for me if you’re going from plus 250 to plus 200 I would probably pull it

At like plus 275 but you know it’s just you’re splitting hairs and and like we’ve seen like that guy that tweeted at us on Twitter there where they actually said you got dead heated so bad that you never even got your money back so we’re going to just refund you the difference

So you can just get your money back on the bed even though you finished inside the top 20 you never want to deal with that so at a course like this I think we could expect you know some dead Heats obviously and then I don’t think you

Want to take that chance yeah it will be one of those things as well where like even on something like 18 it’s a power five you expect guys to make birdie but you know you could be Chris Kirk and hook one into the water right and then

All of a sudden you’re making bogey just with so much water in play and that like it would be devastating if your guy was t13 that he makes bogey on the final hole or he gets bear trapped and makes double Bogey and he’s well with inside

The top 10 then all of a sudden he’s like t17 with eight guys like that would just be so frustrating it’s the worst uh yeah absolutely um I think Byron summed it up perfectly like it’s just it’s just a math equation there is some risk tolerance in there what are you looking

To do as well uh but yeah I think just getting those numbers capturing as much value as you can and then making sure you understand what you’re betting that’s always step one because a lot of people are like wait a minute my guy finished I don’t understand my guy

Finished 19th and it’s just like well yeah and then the next guy’s t29 so you have a slight problem there well Ben do you want to kick us off on the silver pi sure so how crazy am I supposed to get here like am I just getting like

Dangerously insane or is that up to me yeah that is fully on you I I I do the outright show so I’m giving out 70 to ones and 175 to ones I’m sure that you are over at Odd shopper.com as well but for this show I try to stick to like oh

Top 30 anywhere between like I mean it could be a head-to-head if that’s really how strongly you feel I have a head-to-head coming up okay I’m gonna I’m gonna take a a somewhat aggressive stance I’m going to stick to the same formula though because I I really do like you know cashing the

Outrights and getting the Twitter credit is awesome but like the way to sustain the bank roll is also putting in some top 20s some head-to-head some finishing position type things which I think is really really important and I want to talk about Justin lower is a guy that

I’ve I’ve had on the radar and of course like the time to put him on the card would have been last week but you look at him plus 450 for a top 20 that’s the type of number that I I can get involved with now it does feel like chasing a

Little bit coming off a third in Mexico but he gained across the board he’s gained on the irons and three straight made five straight cuts I think this guy’s a pretty good player I I’m not sure how he’ll react to a course like this and again could he get eaten alive

Off the team maybe uh but I actually like him and he did gain an outrageous nine Strokes on the approach in 2022 here he did nothing with it but Justin Low’s game he’s got a lot of outs and I do like that he can get hot with the

Putter he can get hot with the irons uh and he’s playing some good golf almost five to one on that number for a top 20 that is my silver pick yeah and even to see like he has very few top 10 in his career but he does have one in Bermuda

Byron which I would think that for some of these lower class players in the field well there’s not a ton of water around Bermuda it’s you know Bermuda greens you’re you’re going to deal with a ton of wind and it’s not a super long course it’s much easier obviously than

PGA National but I would say that for a lot of these guys that we don’t have a lot of experience with that would be one of the tournaments to look at yeah it is and that’s the thing we’ve got so many corn fery guys so many guys

That have been sitting outside the 125 of the FedEx that are playing this week trying to get themselves into the mix you’re going to have to find some com courses that aren’t necessarily as compy as you’d like and I think that’s a great point there Pat um Lois is a sneaky good

Long Ison player too you know I think people don’t quite realize that they think it’s a short golf course you’re going to be hitting a lot of wedges it’s not necessarily the case you know the majority of the shots come from 125 and out so that’s kind of the situation

We’re going to find ourselves in and like razza said there he’s been he’s been balling out he’s got a few outs there and the approach play and and the putting seem to kind of bounce back in Mexico so that’s always the concern with LA is whether or not he can he can ride

Super hot and then he can just absolutely boil over but he’s looking good right now and I I love that that number so and you got what was the number Ben uh plus 450 for a top 20 how about this how about uh I’ll I’ll do

Some odd Shopper for you I’ll give you the plus 500 with ties at 365 that’s what it speaks to even better just just just made you an extra 50 cents on every dollar that you put into this one Byron go ahead no I was say the return will be zero for me

But but I appreciate the gesture it always works yeah I will go and just kind of tangent off of Bei there real quick I was probably going to make him my bronze but since razza made him use gold I’ll go with Bei as a top 40 minus 105 at Bed

365 there uh which pays TI in full if you just take a look at Bey splits over the last little while I’m a little concerned to kind of go to him in that top 20 top 10 top five Market his his best percentages like of finishing inside each different category 44% of

The time he’s finishing inside the top 40 you know like that’s his safe space he’s like kind of like the Russell Hy situation but just like a lighter South African version it’s it’s top 40 or every now and then I think he had that MX win where he came from way behind

Hitting like from holding out from the Fairway and things like that but it just not repeatedly inside the top 20 and if you even take a look at his results here it’s been just outside the top 20 every single time which scares me and I really

Wanted to bet Bey outride bet him top 20 because he’s playing like much better than a top 40 candidate but I just think he’s demeanor is it’s like I’m okay with the top 40 kind of thing which I know is a really weird thing to say but his his

Like results over the last little while kind of show it out there so love the course history love the form I mean gez the irons i’ never expected this guy to be that good of an iron player you know he’s always a short game Wizard we

Always like to play him at these tough courses and now all of a sudden he’s just striping it so love to see that I really hope he does win at some point and hopefully we are on him but even if we’re not I think you know it’ll be good

To good to have a South African star back in the mix again well you’re not uh holding out hope that Henny dupus is going to win this week well well he’s not playing is he playing this week at the at the cognizant no he’s playing at the uh SDC

In South Africa yeah well have fun winning that again Henny you know like that’s not going to change the world’s perception on you but um you’re going to have to get over here at some point and and and take care of business for us okay H how didn’t my guy thirsty

Lawrence get a PGA Tour card from playing on the DP World Tour last year didn’t he would like he’s he’s won like four times in the past two years like iy can’t get a card I don’t no I didn’t pay attention enough over there Ben yeah I’m I’m still

Living in the Xander Lumbard age of South African golfers that was more him and I went to go bet a DP tournament I think it was Oman it was like or the bin championship and Xander Lombard was like top three in odds I was like what year

Is this what is happening yeah those were the days and the guy with the mini Potter who was that guy yako vanil okay that guy I miss that guy he didn’t have the mini putter he had the Mallet putter yeah and Donnie fonton had like the three- foot long putter as well like

The one that like he would have to look more than like Mark hub’s snail on every single putt um you know playing with Donnie back in the day it was just crazy to see what he would get up to You’ shake his hand and you’d have like he

Didn’t wear gloves he would just have grooves in his palm of his hands where the the club would fit like he couldn’t grip the club any different way because that’s it would overlap in the like crevices of his hand so we’ve got some characters coming up and they are

Grinders you know validated by the by The Canyons in their hands when they when they practice so we’ll have to see I think Donnie had the most potential and he’s kind of think since getting married things get a little crazy for you you know who who is like I mean who

Is the Alis Poltergeist whatever his name is is he supposed to be actually good alri yeah that guy yeah I mean they let him out of the attic I guess and he’s now in the corn fairy TOA just dominate I mean he’s he’s a bolt like a

Tree trunk right it’s just he’s just huge and and feisty and not scared to win so he’s 19 it’s he’s not married I don’t think he’s even got a girlfriend which is the best situation for any South African golfer right now and that’s that’s great to see him just he

Fits the South African like the the American PJ tour narrative like just hits at a million miles right A lot of these South Africans some of them are just like Bey where they kind of scrap out on the DP World T and then can’t can’t quite convert over here all right

My silver pick it’s it’s a pretty generic pick but I’m not going to bet him outright so I I want to get some action on him somewhere Shane Lowry top 20 plus 145 with ties included I know he does it’s not even that his form is bad right now it’s just dude legitimately

Cannot putt but he has been able to putt at this course he has been able to scramble at this course and it’s really tied like just looking at it right now like I went through the model on the research show and just to see him like

Even after the Mexico Stats when a lot of guys got a big bump up you see Shane Lowry still rates out number 18 overall and that’s being 115th in the field and bogey avoidance and 109th in putting over the past 12 rounds and those two things are pretty tightly correlated

Like you’re probably making a ton of putts if you’re saving yourself a bunch of bogeys if you’re missing a bunch of putts chances are you’re making a bunch of Bogies but just to look back at his T to Green game is still fine he has just

He’s come inside the top five each of the last two turns here and it does seem like when we get to Florida like this stretch of the calendar on the PGA tour seems to be Lowry’s best from the Honda basically through the Heritage um I know he doesn’t have any winds but these

Style of courses Ben I think fit him better than anything on the west coast yeah I’d agree with that and and he’s shown obviously the ability not just here but at Sawgrass and the good thing about Shane Lowry is a lot of weird stuff happens during the

Tournament and he’s suited for all of it if it gets windy if it gets nasty if you know he can grind in all different conditions you don’t know what you’re going to get with the flat stick of course but uh there are worse things to be worried about um than that so

Shingar is just a player I I I rarely bet him but at the same time I feel like he’s a pretty solid return on investment more often than not when you’re taking pretty steady markets with him the other thing I I was gonna say the the only

Elements that he can’t play in when he’s the only one who has to play a hole in a monsoon and then he can’t win by you literally took the words out of my mouth I was about to say that and it’s like what are the odds of that ever

Happening I could I would be so salty with the golfing Gods had that happened to me I could not believe it I think I had Burger in that same situation because then Burger went for the Green from the middle of the I had him in one

And duns and then you just hit in the water it was just a disaster those two guys getting absolutely burnt SE ster you know sacrificed the died C Gods there but um some other thing I want to just mention before we get into other guys is we going to be now shifting from

The west coast to the east coast yeah and we’re going to have totally different golf there’s definitely guys that have profiles that suit this kind of golf better than the west coast poer and the recent form numbers the last 24 rounds are all going to be really bad

For some of these guys which you can really take an opportunity on and and just kind of remember that they’ve played well around you know Florida swamps and not so well on the west coast so that’s a really nice Avenue to go down with Shane Larry I was kind of

Eyeing him out against SJ who’s not playing good golf at all right now in a matchup but I couldn’t quite get there just because I don’t know he’s not playing good until we see him this week so maybe I’ll I’ll jump onto him a little bit later um in the Florida swing

See that’s one of the reasons why I don’t think that I’m going to cash out Fitz that Fitz like Lowry it does feel like when we get to the east coast of America versus the West Coast that he just plays a lot better like these courses suit him

Better yeah I think typically what he’s been more accurate in the past though so now he’s like got this beefed up D driver which I don’t know how much it it helps him at this kind of a course maybe it does maybe it doesn’t but it’s it’s interesting he’s like a different golfer

This year though you know that’s the thing I mean it’s it’s weird yeah yeah I just his numbers are just horrible and he doesn’t seem like he has it in any sort of round and just even some of the putts that he’s missing it’s like he usually makes those ones maybe just

Getting back I I just I always like fits better on harder courses like if because people always think like before before he added the extra distance and won the US Open it was like yeah just take him at every accuracy type of course he’s just going to hit every Fairway but he

Never played well at harbort toown until he got the extra distance which is just mindboggling it makes no sense and another thing I really want to kind of we’re g to hit the Golden Age of golf stats when we can filter on putts made for PA putts made for birdie or putts

Made for bogy because I think Shane Lowry and Matthew Fitzpatrick would be some Elite Putters if we could filter on putts made for PA I just feel like there’s a capacity to that and just being a scrappy European they just like paw puts more than they do birdie puts

Um and we’re going to have a lot more pows at this golf course than we’ve seen over the last of little while well maybe there’s something engaging about it now this is just all mental and purely anecdotal Ben but there are some players like we mentioned like Lowry like give

Him a bit of elements and like he can kind of withstand that that I do find a lot of the Euro players and weirdly like there’s even some guys that I play with like scratch guys that they’re certain ones where if you have like pristine conditions they are going to dummy any

Course you throw a little bit of wind at them and they like their calibration gets off where there’s another guy he’s not quite scratched but he’s going to shoot like 74 75 most of the time that we’re out but if you start introducing elements somehow he gets better like he

He enjoys the the thrill of like trying to shape his shots in the wind like it just something clicks for him it feels like Fitzpatrick and Lowry fall into that mold I think there’s something to that I I think generally just making generalizations there’s more a little

More art than science in in in the European because they’re dealing with a lot of weird stuff uh and I’ve always had that mentality with the corn fairy tour as well like those guys their mentality is to score and then you get to something like Honda and if you do

That you it’s just not going to work you can’t go for 25 under style and there there’s an element to being able to say like I’m gonna minimize my risk I will take my birdies when I get them but but as Byron was saying I think it’s spot on

About like you know what I’ll take six feet for par and that’s just as good as six feet for Birdie on a different course because I’m gaining the same amount of Strokes against the field on these holes so what you’re saying Ben is that at Mexico in Resort courses you

Want the guy who’s got like six sex Wings in his bedroom and when you get to the Honda Classic you want the guy who’s doing it missionary that’s right Strokes gain sex Wings is also the Pinnacle of golf stats that we we haven’t got there

Yet but we’re close and once we get that uh I think it’ll be pretty much solved Byron just that’s not the golden age that’s the Platinum age of that’s correct well you you talked about like The Strokes data for like power putts birdie putts and bogey putts I think

We’re going to have that soon at Fantasy National like that we we have this like shot level stuff that we’re working on but trying to figure out how to put into a table that’s actually a really good one I’ll try to work on that that would

Be awesome I would I would put a sex swing in the back of my studio yeah if that happened Pat bronze picks for the week actually no before we get to that I want to kind of dig more in on this Florida versus West Coast Byron did you

Find guys that did have significant splits because one that stuck out immediately to me was Ben Griffin who just plays better in Florida yeah there’s just guys like that I I don’t really have it off the top of my head I think if you just go and look

At like course history filter on a few guys that are are like typically good around these kind of Swampy venues for instance maybe like a an Adam senson a Chris Kirk you know um sjm you know guys that are very good off the tea I think typically Thrive a bit better at these

Kind of courses because of the risk off the tea maybe that’s just a a little overgeneralization there but if you just go filter on like TPC Sor grass the Valero the valpa um this course you can see there’s guys that are just popping up Non-Stop and and that’s the kind of

Golfers that you’re kind of looking for um Rory in particular being one of them what do you make of minwoo this week Ben same thing I make of him every week I I I can’t tell if he’s wildly overpriced or the best bargain in the

Field uh now you want to talk about okay don’t destroy yourself off the tea we got that box checked uh now the rest of the game I don’t really know um I I don’t have a good feel with him I never do though so he rarely rarely makes my

Card and he didn’t this week either Byron I comped him to Bryson when Bryson went on his weird run where he couldn’t chip and couldn’t hit an iron yet was still winning tournaments basically because he led the field in driving and led the field in putting like that feels

Right now against these stronger fields and this one’s not as strong but versus some of the DP events or like the Aussie open type thing that minwoo can win that it feels like that’s what he needs to do that’s his path yeah I think we saw that at the

Charles Schwab where I was like he’s not gonna be playing well at all here and then you just gained a you just overcut the corners of the dog legs and just puted lights out and chipped he was chipping when guys were hitting approach shots you know so that’s just the

Difference there I don’t know if that’s going to apply as much this week um I’m also on the side of I think Ben might be feeling is like I think he’s overhyped a little bit like the whole let him cook situation he hasn’t finishes out the top

20 yet this year I mean he’s been cooking like wide Castle sliders so far it’s like give us something else to cook we need some Gourmet stuff from you Min wo if you’re going to be pushing this narrative and it hasn’t been with the poter maybe he hasn’t played too much on

And that’s the concern I have in fading him this week is we’ve seen him putt very nicely at the players and things like that so maybe he’s a bit more adapt to these West these East Coast courses than um the West Coast that was kind of

The thing with me and Ryan Fox too because I love Ryan Fox like the guy just kind of pops out of nowhere and wins we know how good he can be off the tea but it does seem like POA has been his Kryptonite so far and he’s put it

Really well on Bermuda throughout we we don’t have a huge sample of it obviously but everything we’ve seen when he gets to Florida do just make pots all of a sudden yeah it’s weird golfers are psychos man they are just psychos and it doesn’t make sense yet we try and win

Money off of them too uh last two guys I want to bring up to you Ben just to see where you’re at with them Cory Connor’s being one because on paper this should be the perfect course for him he plays well at difficult venues he keeps the

Ball in play it’s just he legitimate like he’s so bad putting normally that when you get to a place where he actually putts himself out of tournaments and doesn’t just like turn a t17 or something like it’s really alarming and this is one of those courses and the other one is EVR who

Just is kind of playing great golf but I think we all have this thing in the back of our minds where oh my God there’s water and EVR is going to hit into the middle of it every time yeah that’s in the back and front

Of my mind with him so uh Connors is tougher because he he does do a lot of things that I want I think I just said okay I’m just going to go with senson and just pretend that Connor’s like doesn’t this the thing the thing about

Conor is that’s tricky and I dealt with this on a personal level with Grio for half a decade he he combines awful putting with awful around the green game and that is so hard to overcome like at least benan when he has his struggles he was always a really good around the

Green player and you can mask it Cory Conor can’t do either right now and that’s so difficult to overcome even if you’re striping it that was the weird Luke listing for a really long time too Byron that like he he would be able to get himself out of jams because he was

So good around the green and now he like sucks around the green somehow yeah none of it makes sense it doesn’t make sense do you think there’s something to these guys that like when they try and work on a different part of their game they just spend less time on

The other part that was once good that they were like giving attention to all the time I mean you you’re the guy that is the best of golf here you’re the one who you know came to America to play golf you tell us I don’t know I I I practiced for like

12 hours a day and I still could hit my irons so like it doesn’t make sense to me how these guys improve in these departments but it’s I think that’s probably the case right I think maybe they they adopt like a new thought a thought swing or something and it can

Like roll over into the other areas of the game I’m not entirely sure what’s what’s going on like I said the psychos and we bet on them but it’s it’s interesting well with the way that list has been putting so far this year it’s not that it’s super consistent like I

Mean he won when he won at Sanderson firm he gained six strokes and then he goes to Sony and loses six Strokes over the course of four rounds so it’s still like widely variant but at least he has these high peaks all of a sudden which you would need to win tournaments he

Gained almost seven strokes at Riv when he came in second so he weirdly became a guy that I always really liked at hard courses because he’d be able to chip it to two feet and make the twoof foot putt we weren’t relying on him to make a bunch of

Birdies from 15t he was just able to grind it out in a lot of these situations like when he came inside the top 10 at page during the PGA Championship like yeah on paper that’s a great course for Lucas he can bomb it wherever he wants he can hit his irons

Pretty well but he can always scramble himself out of a lot of jams and everyone else is making a lot of bogeys at the same time so it can balance itself out in that way now with his profile where the driver has been less than effective than it’s ever been in

His career the irons have been better but he’s somehow gaining over five Strokes every four tournaments on the greens that maybe easy courses are where we want Lucas now Raza I was just gonna say yeah I think that makes sense to whatever you said um it is amazing though I think norin

Also is like that where I I had a vision of where he would Thrive and now I realized that it’s it’s not what I once thought some of these guys games when they translate it’s not just that their Strokes gain data changes it’s their course fit that changes and courses that

I would have ruled them out at initially actually become favorable byy spots yeah noran’s a tricky one this week cuz I know that people will like him because of the history here we know he’s great with his wedges he’s going to keep the ball in play Byron but and he has the

Second he had the second Bermuda but it just feels like he’s a pure form player like I would take him as a top 40 here but I don’t think I would sniff anything above that right now he can’t get all facets of his game going the right

Way yeah he’s an interesting guy as well these guys are just all this is the course this is the venue this is the event that we’re going to have to sift through and find golf is like this that Alex nin he’s great on these comp courses that I have in the Florida side

He suits this kind of a a layout he’s played nicely the last little while I mean but I think with Alex Narin whenever things seem to be checking all the boxes I think I was heavily invested in him at Southwind or um Southern Hill sorry for the PJ

Championship and then just took like three shots out of a fairway bunker you know like that’s just the stuff you’re going to have to deal with Alex Narin with and you know I’d rather I don’t think he’s going to beat I just think you’re not going to be on

Him in that regard well there was one guy that I was going to swing back to he’s not going to be my bronze pick this week because I I have a live matchup for my bronze pick Bo this week but I weirdly really like Taylor pendrith this

Week because I feel like that like his odds just got crushed because apparently I I wasn’t around for the DraftKings discourse last week then but it seemed like everyone loved pendrith but he is one of like he’s going to have like he plays Tory Pines really well and they

Are some long courses where his distance is going to be a big factor but you look at most of his top finishes they’re on short Bermuda courses Sony players uh Bermuda like these are the courses where he ends up inside the top 10 yeah I mean pendrith winning last

Week would have actually broke Twitter because me and everyone else had him on the card and he wasn’t even close but I I get it and there’s always an element I mean it’s more in a game theory for DFS of people overreact to too bad rounds

Always like that’s just I think a fact in general and I like the hard reset when you’re not playing your best golf so yeah I’m I would never push back all the Canadians there I wouldn’t be stunned to see one of them really compete because they all profile pretty

Well here well I saw that Michael gleick qualified for the field on like the the Tuesday playoffs so he was a guy that like I think we bet no that was Roger Sloan that we bet like everyone bet to win Windam that year when Henley actually blew it at the the same time

Too and Sloan made the playoff and then lost to kizner stupid Roger Sloan bronze picks I have Meo Pereira over Patrick Reed minus 115 for Liv jeda Ben I forgot Meo existed um good for chile hope he wins for you uh jeda they’re in okay I am not I’m not plugged

In as you could tell to what’s going on with Liv I hope Peter you in the field but he is fire up yeah well there’s there’s your winner so that’s easy um and hopefully Meo comes second well I I did bet Meo to win at 35 to1 and I bet

Brooks at 10 to1 he’s one every time they’ve been to live jettus he wins in a playoff every single time he beat Uline in a playoff last year he beat guc in a playoff last year Byron did you see gu’s comments about Rory and the Masters oh

My God the asteris I mean isn’t this guy he’s he’s arguably the most comedic individual we’ve ever come across in golf and I don’t think he even knows it it’s just he’s sipping on my ties excuse me kind of just sending off tweets that don’t make any sense and and was this an

Actual like you actually opened his mouth to say this this time it wasn’t a tweet yeah I guess so yeah there’s an asterisk next to Rory’s name if he wins the Masters B Because all the best players aren’t there yeah I’ll get right on you don’t have to worry about Rory winning the

Masters as long as I keep picking him there for the 10th straight year but uh yeah Taylor gu not not my cup of tea uh and those comments didn’t help his cause that’s for sure well the the way that I look at Patrick Reed he just hasn’t been

Playing a lot of golf this is I mean I like Meo anyway he had a nice performance in Oman last week but Reed has only played Liv so far which I thought was somewhat surprising because usually he gets in an Asian Tour event or whatever it is to keep the game sharp

But he was bad in Mexico he was bad in Vegas uh he hasn’t played particularly well in these Jetta events in Liv so far during you know Liv’s 2year period of existing and Meo has and Meo you probably should have won last week and kind of gagged it

In the didn’t gag it in the final round but Ortiz just went and won it so minus 115 seems like a really good number to bet against Patrick Reed at this point just remind me Ben when we do the DraftKings pick show for the Masters that to take Patrick Reed because he’ll

Just play well yeah yeah I’ll I will uh I will remind you of that and I might I might uh again I don’t know anything about live right now I think I’m going to put a little little wager on that andil you there uh get some action I

Like that bronze pick by you got to go all the way to like August to see anything good from Patrick Reed on a live event like what has gone on the he’s just spending too much I love how these guys go over there to like spend

More time with their family and I think Reed is probably arguably on the opposite side of the spectrum there because he’s had to spend like way more time with just Justine and um that’s arguably you know arguably the reason he’s not quite playing the golf he could

Be but yeah rip to Patrick readed there I think that’s a great bad Pat um especially with Meo playing as good as he is right now let’s chat about someone else that’s also playing really good and his name is Eric Cole from my bronze bet

Top 20 plus 140 the guy’s just been a top 20 machine over the last few weeks and I think not a lot of people will realize that since 2024 has begun Eric K’s starting to drive the golf ball not bad which has always been his problem and

He’s trending quite nicely the last 24 rounds I think Cole’s looking 38th in this field and in Strokes gain off the te which is top quarter of the field or so so give me that which was the only real real issue with his game was not

Being able to get off the tea and now we go back to a venue that he gained I think in all four rounds off the te last year when he finished second great course history the iron play is immaculate the short game is classy um

Can I do like a weird bet with where I say okay if I’m going to bet $20 on Eric Cole I’m going to bet 15 on the top 20 at plus 140 and then five on his top five at plus 550 or plus 600 wherever you can because he he’s in my opinion

He’s never going to win a tournament he just doesn’t have it in him but he’s going to finish inside the top five and the top 20 quite a lot and I want to really take advantage of him floating and flirting with the with the lead and getting into that top five there which

He’s done repeatedly Ju Just bet just bet all your money on him to win then cash him out on the front nine on Sunday that’s that’s probably not a bad strategy either I think there’s an all cash out list and he’s definitely on it I would definitely put him in the mix

There um great Point great point B for for years because because I’ve bet on him so many times I know that he won geez how many wins does he have two or three like Kevin kizner was the king of this he would just be winning tournaments on Sunday all throughout

Florida and just you would know Jason day would come run him down Mark lean would just anyone who was in the field would just run him down over the final four holes and you’d be sitting there with your 80 to1 Kevin kizner ticket pin and being like oh this is great it’s

Like oh it’s gone just just like that yeah simpler times uh yeah is are 5100 in the DFS streets this week tough scene bronze pick from you off yeah I’m keeping it very simple I missed the number on benan but I do like the spot

For him uh I’m not completely sold on JT paston here minus 110 and a head to-head I’ll take Benny on there uh it’s really nothing too extreme I just think an is is poised to play really well that’s one of the few markets that didn’t get nuked

I’ll buy on him Poston you know he’s never really thrived at this course his game’s a little erratic I think he could play his way out of it so give me benan over JT this week I could see benan missing the cut yeah so could I but I

Still might cash this um so it could be it could be a plus seven plus n head-to-head winner and I’ll take that all right those are the full gold silver and bronze picks I did want to give one guy a very special mention just because I was digging into him because he gained

Seven strokes off the tea last year and I keep thinking his last name is stranger but it’s not it’s Stanger but itbe just be way yeah Jimmy Jimmy Jimmy Stanger apparently he’s from like Tampa uh so he’s probably pretty familiar with these greens and if he just continues to

Mash the ball and like not hit it in the water he’s 300 to1 that you can probably like what are his top 40 odds let’s let me take a look at this for a second just he was a name that popped to my mind do

You do you have any info on this guy Byron yeah I actually you know I did that corn fairy to a 44 R [ __ ] um and he was the guy I actually took out of the article and quot tweeted it because he just had tons and tons of distance

Off the tea and plays well on these on the easy courses did he did he play well yeah last year Pat no I’m not quite well I guess gaining like that amount off the te I mean surely right yeah let’s see Honda he’s never played this

Before okay cuz yeah he he would have so he gained seven at Mexico off the tea yeah yeah that makes tons of sense you know I mean the guy just launches it so it’s it’s fun because we’re going to be betting guys that played well last week

On a course that was completely opposite you know it’s like totally different this week yeah but we’ve just seen form ride through like it just I I am kind of pro that even if the course matches don’t go like we saw this with Sam Ryder

For years that he would just show up to like three completely separate locals nothing to do with each other different distances different green types but once he got hot he was just kind of hot for a month and he would go away for 10 months

Maybe this guy is kind of the same he was 14th at the AMX too and like three starts ago yeah and he’s there’s there’s guys out there you know Sam Rod has been I think he he led the PJ twin putting at one for a period of time only Victor

Hland had better Strokes gained a approached last year on Sam Ryder like he was out gaining everyone he’s like a master of all trades but never two at the same time so just a little fun nugget on Sam Ryder there I mean the guy’s just I think next up he’s going to

Become the best driver in the world so that’s next up on his bucket list we’ll see what he can do but there’s guys that just play well everywhere I don’t know all right that will do it on the pat Mayo experience playing the pat Mayo experience DraftKings listeners League

That’s down in the description the newsletter fantasy national.com to get yourself that 20 % off RZA what’s going on at odd Shopper this week yeah of course just keeping it busy obviously with college basketball golf MBA there’s so many markets so many opportunities so you know with more

States coming online I know North Carolina is next here in the states it’s very exciting you’re looking for some betting tips if you’re looking to to Really refine a process come check us out OD Chopper OD Chopper YouTube uh fun time hopefully can cash some tickets

This week Byron at the model Maniac on the X machine rotoballer.com when does the $10000 column come out I’ll be jumping on that after the show making sure we get breaking 100 out there for everybody it is a free article but if you’re looking to get in involved

With any premium stuff code Maniac gets you into the back behind there um we’ve got Showdown stuff we’ve got you know all the Jazz that you can wish for I’ve got a PJ stat buffet that just takes top 20 screenshots of my model and just

Plugs them in like crazy you know so you can use whatever you want from there to your advantage um we got tons of fun stuff over at Roa and I think it’s going to be a fun week again for us after me and Joe adoni both hit a old nap last

Week along with youat so good job on that man that was a fun swe yeah you too I mean it wasn’t super fun it was fun at the very end it wasn’t fun throughout the course of Sunday I’ll tell you that but you can follow me at the PM all of

My final bets and final write up after the show with Tambo on Wednesday in the free newsletter subscribe to that down in the description right now okay I’m Pat Mayo smash the like on the way out and I we’ll see you next time P Mayo is furious experience