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What’s up guys Rick here to talk about one andone end game the two biggest mistakes that I see people make during the season listen there’s a lot of strategy around oneand done before the season starts this is going to be a little bit different i’ I’ve done those

Videos I’ve I’ve written those posts this is going to be about the adjustments being made in season from week to week and also the two big things that I think people are screwing up that are giving you an opportunity to make up ground on them and or pass them okay

Let’s jump into it so first off there is just an explosion in one and done you know the the growth of that part of fantasy golf is has been staggering you know these are leagues and pools that were generally being you know held underground amongst a group of friends

And now they’re making their way onto the internet onto fully regulated websites and the growth year-over-year is is nuts you know just this year alone there are multiple one andd that have thousands and thousands of entrance with100 to $200 entry there is a one and done that has a

$2500 entry that got over 250 people it’s over $600,000 in that prize pool alone there’s literally millions of regulated dollars 100% legal in these pools and leagues and contest and it’s growing year over year and you know i’ I spend a lot of time on oneandone content but a

Lot of it comes from kind of what to do to start the season um maybe some some week to week like hey should I play this guy or should I play that guy but I think there are still two big things that have not been drilled down enough

On that I think provides the most opportunity to help you win some of those millions of dollars whatever your percent percentage that you’re looking to get might be so number one is the idea of future value and I talked a lot about this during my pre-season oneandone video about how different the

PGA Tour is with their purses this year you know anywhere from 8.3 million or even down to 7.8 million up to 25 million nearly 4X right like 3 and a2x the biggest purse is compared to the lowest that’s very different for this year and a lot of Signature Events that that blow

That up as well and the idea of future value is a golfer more valuable for me to use now or is he more valuable for me to use in the future to save that is a question that I think most people ask themselves um a little bit but they’re

Not asking themselves enough should I use Rory mroy this week at the farmers Insurance open or should I be saving him for a an event that he is better suited for B an event that he is going to be less owned at or see an event with a

Bigger purse so even as we go down the future value path it does Branch off into a few more uh a few more roads so question one is a golfer better suited for a different event later down the road well here is the list and you’ve probably seen me show something like

This before the ultimate course horses these are golfers that have played at least 20 rounds at a specific Golf Course since the start of 2016 and it is sorted by who has gained the most Strokes it’s pretty straightforward and what you’re going to find is there there

Are natural fits for golfers Justin Rose at Tory pint Rory mroy at Bay Hill Tony fenale at a couple of different places TPC Twin Cities and Tory Pine sunj M’s got 1 two three four courses in which he gains at least 1.8 Strokes to the field

So when you are looking at this and saying wow um you know I I think sunj sunj might be you know you might have sat here at the American Express and said wow sunj IM is a really good fit for the stadium course what is his

Future value and if you looked into that you would have seen that he has a lot of positive future value because you could use him at Sedgefield for the Windham Championship you could use him at Arnold Palmer Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill or you could

Have used him what what would ended up have been been the next week at Tory Pines so in a week where sunjay was probably one of the most popular selections you could have very easily found better places for him or places that are equal in the future so future

Value and it’s hard to quantify that I think people are asking themselves that but it’s hard to quantify so here’s the list and you can get this I mean it’s all it’s all my website Rick rung good.com you can you sort by this it is it is

Truly and when you see guys like Rory mroy right Rory at Quail Hollow Rory at Augusta National Rory at TPC River Highlands which doesn’t even feel like that great of a fit for him and of course Rory at Bay Hill there’s almost always going to be a lot of future value

For Rory m so my big takeaway here is you should be asking yourself this but you should also be able to find the answer and and that’s where the data comes into play instead of just trying to go with a gut reaction so that’s that’s part one of the future value

Branch is there a spot that you could play the golfer that will be better or or equal to or similar to later in the Future Part Two is is there a spot in the future in which this golfer will be lower owned we’re starting to get into

Specific Game Theory and we’re going to dive into that more in just a second but the idea of how owned a golfer has already been how much has he been used versus how much he is going to be used this week is critical now there are not a lot of great ways to

Get this information um I know of about one and a half ways to get this information the way that I get this information and this is not unique to me I think anybody can do this is I go to a website called officefootballpool.com and because I’m

In a league there I think you might have to be in a league there let me show you you can go to picks and go to sitewide picks now this is uh this is across the entire we website right so if there are thousands or tens of thousands

Of Leagues with you know 100 people each it’s all of those selections it is not unique to my pool that I’m in so this becomes available basically on Monday of every single week so before the tournament starts you are able to see this so for example I’m recording this

Right now the week of the Mexico open when this information first started to come out Tony fena was about 33% % owned over the course of the week it dropped a little bit dropped a little bit dropped a little bit and then the final number

Was 27% but it gave us it it gives you starting basically on Monday a really good idea of what the projected ownership is going to be because the sitewide selections generally hold up within your pool right obviously there’s times it might not but these are very very good

So this gives us an accurate representation of ownership so for example let’s actually let’s go back to our original example I said you know I bet Sun JM was pretty popular at the American Express let’s find out yes and and he was he was the most used golfer for the American Express at

18% so when you looked at that when you sat here on Wednesday and looked at this and said wow sunj m is going to be the most popular golfer this week at a golf course that he has had a ton of success at well guess what there are three other

Golf courses in which he has had similar or better results at where he is certainly not going to be as popular he’s probably not going to be 18% again because only so many people can use him so whenever we get to the Windham Championship Sun JM is very likely to be

Significantly lower owned than 18% on a golf course that he is technically a hair better on future value right that that’s the idea do you have the will power do you have the strategy the stamina to save a pick it’s a good question thank you I

Posed it myself so when you see a week where a golfer is bearing down on 30% of projected ownership like Tony fow was for the Mexico open you have to look at that and say wow it’s a full field event 30% of people the golf is really hard is

There a better spot that I could play Tony Fen out a place that he’s better at well the answer is yes there are uh a couple of golf courses that he has more experience on and he has been phenomenal at and also there are golf there there

Are tournaments coming up in which you are going to get him at a much lower ownership so of of of part one and part two that we’ve discussed already when when you sat here on Wednesday and looked at Tony fow for the Mexico open you should have came up with an answer

To part one as yes there’s a better uh there’s a better place to play him and yes there is a place in which uh he has he is going to have lower ownership so you should have said yes to both of those questions the third question would

Be is there a better or bigger purse that I could play him at now the answer to that uh always depends right I mean you’re going to find a lot of guys of course there’s a bigger purse coming the playoffs are coming or major championships are coming or whatever

That might be and maybe Tony fow is not one of those guys right there there’s a small group of guys when we start heading down path number three that are worthy of holding for a large purse admittedly Tony fow’s probably not that guy so when you would have asked your

Question about Tony fow this week you would have said yes there’s a place that I can get him that he’s been better at or equal to yes there is a place that um he will be lower owned and and probably no is there a place where I would play

Him with a um with a with a bigger purse so let’s let’s go back to that so this is where the two points intersect between mistake number one part three that people make and mistake number two this is this is where they intertwine and this is where the ideas are very

Very abstract and why I wanted to find a way to make it more tangible to make it more data driven and to actually be able to answer these questions effectively so this a lot of you know this already this this past uh off season which is very

Short in golf I flew to Denver I met up with the guys at pool genius and I collaborated and I consulted on a oneandone tool that helps with all of this and you’ve seen me show this before but this is really huge and this is still very much in its infancy there’s a

Lot being added to this all the time I’ll put the link in the description you can go get a free trial right now but what this tool is doing and what it is going to do not only answers idea one part three but idea two an idea two is

League specific Game Theory there is a lot of game theory that goes on in one and done where people fall down are is at League specific Game Theory so um when I do my Wednesday live chats I get a lot of questions should I play Sam

Burns or should I play Colin morow and won and done this week and I’ll do my best to give you an idea but I truly do not have enough information to answer that question accurately because it depends on what your risk tolerance is who you have already used uh what purse

Is remaining if there’s any quirks in scoring how many like your position all that stuff all of that stuff I don’t have the answers to and that’s where this oneand done tool comes into play so here it is here is what this tool allows you to do and it encompasses a lot of

What I’ve just been talking about so this is basically the short list that you would get every single week and it knows who I have already used Xander Schley ludvig Sam Burns right those guys are crossed out and then it’s using those items that we talk about regularly recent form course history the

Betting odds how are those odds moving and is there a better place to play that golfer what is the future value of that golfer and it gives you a short list of names the pit grade I I honestly just sort by pit grade quite frankly because

That’s doing all the work for me and it it ranks my guys Rory M 96 out of 100 Colin morawa 91 out of 100 Patrick can’t lay 90 I could keep going but these are you know these are guys I’m not really considering for this week and this is

Custom to me and it’s changing and updating over time so remember when I said Is there going to be a spot to use Tony fena at a at a better purse well season planner gives you an idea of that right so so this looks at all of the

Purses that are remaining so the biggest purse that anyone can win this year barring you know barring uh we don’t technically the major championships don’t have to announce their purses into like whenever they want the Masters does it like Friday sometimes of of tournament week so as of right now the

Biggest BG purse anyone can win is $4.5 million at the Players Championship if you win it and it goes down from there you know there’s basically 12 12 12 payout positions that are $3.6 million or more and the idea of having this short list of golfers golfers that

You’re going to be able to use or should be able to use is valuable so when I would have asked that question about Tony fow you know is there a spot for Tony fow at a higher purse well the answer is probably not right I I I

Wouldn’t have really used him anywhere I I would have maybe used him in the second tier I don’t think I would have used him in the first tier so this gives you helps to give you an idea of the caliber of golfer that you should be using in each one of these

Events and it’s just very easy to look at like hey you know keep it simple um here’s a short list that’s what I want right I think I think in when we were building this tool a lot of the conversation was around what do we want

The end user to get what do I want to get I mean I’m basically the guinea pig here right we’re basically using it as how I use oneandone tools you know I don’t want to be given a pick some people do I don’t I want a short list a

Datadriven short list and then I’ll make the decision from there and then whatever decision I make will be adjusted on for future selections right that to me is the best way to do this so that is the way that this product came out so that’s part of

Of Point number two the the the things that you’re doing the decisions that you are M making and the mistakes that people are making are are not League specific all of this stuff needs to be customized to you you should see the questions that I get hey Rick my one one

And done gives a prize for the exactly 20th best player I have to pick three a week but it has to be someone within the top F like the amount of rules and stuff that you guys come up with is amazing I love it but it’s all very very specific

To you so so when you when you’re asking me a question on a live chat should I play this person or that person in a one and done I need to know more right that that’s really and what happens is the the longer the season goes on the more important the league

Specific stuff becomes imagine the difference between week two where everyone is basically tied choosing between Rory Moy and Scotty sheffler or week 21 week 32 where you’re trying to choose between Rory maroy and Scotty Sheffer yet the purses are different your position is different you might be trying to hold

Off Chasers you might be trying to make up ground you might be able to see how many people ahead of you have used each one of those golfers you know there’s not any purses left there the longer you go in the season the more important your specific league and situation

Becomes I cannot stress that enough so the way that this was built the way that we built this tool is it allows you to put in the specifics of your league for as many leagues as you’re in I’m you know I’m in a lot right I’m in I’m in a bunch on Splash

I’m in uh my own right on on rungood golf.com I’ve got I’ve got a lot going on here so what this allows you to do and I won’t you know I won’t go through the whole thing but it allows you to put in how many entries you have the entry

Fee how many people are getting paid out what tournaments are included do you ever need to pick multiple golfers because all of this is critical to finding the answers to those questions that we’ve been asking throughout the entirety of this video and then what you

Do is you put your picks in as you go along so that you can so that it knows how much money you’ve used or how much money you’ve won which golfers you’ve used and how to go from there it it really th this is I I cannot stress this

Enough this is like barely even V1 there’s a lot more stuff that’s coming to this and it’s already saving me so much time every single week and giving me like legit confidence in in picks that I have to make now I’m I’m biased here right like

I had a hand in making this right a lot of a lot of what you see here comes from the way that I play one and so obviously I think it’s great obviously I do it’s just like rickun good.com obviously I think rickun good.com is great you

Should go check this out there’s a free trial like go check it out and if you like it that’s great but I just think that this saves you so much time gives you peace of mind and and is only going to get insanely insanely better you know this

Isn’t this isn’t their first rodeo at pool genius right they they do great data driven tools for March Madness and NFL Survivor and all that stuff so like very confident in in the products that that come out of this and you know it just it just goes back

To making a smart informed decision would you ever pick you know even if you get to the end of the year and you have Rory Mary left and you’re in last place it doesn’t matter right you you have squandered your opportunity you’ve squandered your your reasoning for

Saving Rory mroy everybody ahead of you is probably going to use him you know what I mean it just there’s just so much more involved now than there’s ever been with the purses the information that’s available how things are changing constantly and and that’s what the goal

Of this tool is so it the the the biggest mistake the biggest mistake is not understanding how your position and your league affects your picks the good news is um I mean we’re in getting into the meat of the oneandone schedule right now so you can obviously sign up for

This I mean you you don’t have to sign up for it it’s there’s a free trial but like use these ideas right the idea of future value the idea of making sure you’re making decisions that are unique to yourself and then uh so you can I mean obviously you’re going to need

Something through the rest of the year but also if you want to get into a one and done um for the first time ever what we did on Splash was we created a Players Championship and Majors three and done so you’ve got to pick three players for the players three players

For the Masters three players for the US Open three for the PGA three for the open right so you’re going to pick 15 golfers in total you’re going to pick three a week you can only use them once very unique very interesting it’s a $500 entry um we’re trying to get over we’re

Trying to get like 460 entries would fill it0 and something thousand in the purse if that if we get there it’ll be 25k for first and also there are payouts for each tournament so even if you uh don’t do well overall but you do well

For one one event um you’ll you can make money as well it’s it’s fully regulated and legal in like 40 or more States so you can get involved in that I’ll put the link in the description as well and and really what I’ll be doing is I’ll be

Putting these rules back into the pool genius tool starting a new entry and going from there actually let’s just do it together right so we’ll just call the we’ll just make a new entry we’ll call it Splash uh three andone I’ve never played in a three and done but let’s

Let’s do it so we’ll call three okay where is this pool hosted it’s hosted on Splash how many entries are in the pool so I’m just going to use if we fill it and then I can come back and edit it later if that is not true how many

Entries are you playing one entry fee 500 how many season long payouts are there the answer that is 50 okay so top 50 are going to get a prize first place rough numbers uh 25,000 second place 20 third is 16700 fourth is is 12500 fifth is 8,300 and it’s doing this

So that it knows like if it was a very topheavy payout right it would want to know that this is why the the the contest rule like knowing your thing matters $835 for 50th does your pool offer any types of other prizes yes uh top three payouts for each

Event next what tournaments are included okay so I need to check uncheck everything but the players and the majors so we are just going to do that very quickly here it’s defaulted to like the standard events so that should just be five events is that right

Yes okay so that looks good to me and then do you ever need to pick more than one golfer yes I do see this is important we are going to you have to pick three at every one of these boom so now it knows does your does your pool include any non-standard

Rules or features no uh does this look good to me yes it does save okay so now I should have a splash three and done yeah so there we go so when the PLAYERS Championship comes out when that field is available I’ll be able to analyze it and I’ll be

Able to save my picks obviously if I need to make any edits I can do that but very like I love the direction this is headed in and I think it is the end game I think it’s I think it solves the two big problems that people

Make and even if you’re not using it think think about future value think about your tournament your league specifically I hope that helped I think it’s different right but uh yeah let me know if you have any questions everything that you need I’ll put a link

In the description for go go check it out but uh best of luck and I’ll talk to you guys soon

3 Comments

  1. The only issue i will say with future value is hard to go with is like for Sungjae i would not be shocked if he skips the Wyndham and if i wait until then to use him and he doesn’t play i’m screwed

  2. Hey Rick, love the continued content you put out beyond just the weekly golf tournament. Do you know if/when Splash will include weekly golfer usage for their OAD contests along with a running usage for the entire season? Having this info is crucial for contest game theory. I know Splash bought out OfficeFootballPool, which has this capability, so I was hoping Splash contests would have this feature already.

  3. I joined poolgenius… I took the OAD & NCAA March Madness bracket combo deal they have. Don't worry, I'll still follow Rick's in one entry!

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