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Morning everybody Welcome to Bar Canada at the dean downtown Las Vegas I’m Ben Wilson here on vison in the DraftKings Network a very happy Kelly bidin our producer right next to me on the desk cuz NBA is back tonight Kelly yeah let’s go the wait is over I was going to say
Man don’t call me out just cuz charms on TV okay there’s a lot of charm charm is on a lot of TVs in here okay it it may or may not back though let’s go baby well they’ve already got TNT set up for you that’s that’s right ready to go time
H tradition is waking up after you know a random Slumber after having NBA on TNT on and you get some random show that’s right yeah every morning every morning one of my TVs has Charmed on that’s for sure when I yeah when I turn them on
Every every single what what is it after be Wednesday and Friday mornings yeah and now with the NHL we had TNT last night for NHL that’s right Bruins Oilers game so you’re you you know you’ve got to cover now if you really want to like four days a week Kelly Kelly we’re
Coming on here Kelly rattling through every single character of The Charmed franchise always always great we will talk some NBA we have a lot of different NBA topics today Tim Murray our colleague joins us to talk college basketball in a half hour as well a lot of great games some tremendous upsets
Last night on the card as well we not only do college basketball but we will do heavy NBA Nick whan our pal over at RotoWire will join us as well top of our next hour and then Matt Gom to talk college baseball outstanding college baseball analyst for college insiders
Joins us at 11:30 Eastern because the people have spoken Kelly they want college baseball talk today and tomorrow if you’re going to be on give it to if you’re going to be on this show Ben yeah you got got to give the a G audience what they wanton that’s college baseball
Stuff so we’re doing it yeah we’re going we got it I you know in my you you can do the ESPN plus the quad box on your Apple TV and it’s it’s been great you know you got college basketball and I’ve got some random like Oklahoma Dallas
Baptist game I’m like this is awesome we’re back that’s great college baseball well NBA’s back tonight and already we have stars sitting and the biggest star in the league it’s LeBron James who announced this yesterday he is out for tonight’s game Lakers at Warriors expected to headline the start of the
Second half I guess second half in quote since we are well past the halfway point but second half post All-Star break and Kelly you got all over this thing right away we opened three yesterday and with that news coming out on LeBron quickly
Got up to four and a half and now we sit six Market wide as we sit 10: a.m. eastern yeah this is uh this is interesting I mean hey just macro real quick on LeBron this is uh you know he did kind of warn about this I didn’t
Really think it was going to happen when he brought it up Ben I just thought it was kind of the hey you know it is we’re we’re limping to the end of the NBA season everybody’s kind of banged up a little bit um but this is a big time
Game tonight for where these two teams are at in the standing so for him to be missing this um definitely a bit of bit of concern if you are a Lakers backer or you know got Futures tickets on the Lakers or if you’re a Lakers fan I I was
Kind of surprised to see that come down yesterday I did jump on the warriors uh when it was moving Ben I only caught it though at five so I got the Warriors minus five tonight frankly though you talked about where this opened at with LeBron James being ruled out I’m
Surprised this number hasn’t gotten bigger on the Golden State Side I would think it probably does as we go through the course of the day here and people like you know people remember hey the NBA is back let me see what I can bet tonight uh Lakers Warriors will jump
Will jump out to them um I I I would expect this gets close to six and a half seven something like that I LeBron James is worth more than three points to a line um so yeah I think it’s probably playable still at six these are two
Teams that that I have I have raided fairly close together so you talked about what three three and a half pretty much being the opener right that that’s right where I thought it would beat should be at now you’re talking about a mo a move only up to six with with
LeBron out uh I think it’s still probably bet I think it’s still betable at six or you can look to attack this one live tonight and for La now just going forward and we’ll do the full breakdown here of the not only the inseason odds because you have win total
Odds that are out there right now Kelly and I each have selected our favorite ones to talk about I don’t want to step on your to if you if you chose the Lakers you’re Kelly but this is a team that has a 10th toughest strength of schedule remaining you already have
Lebron after a long absence now sitting out the first game a huge Marquee game out of the break you’re plus 105 to make the playoffs you’re right in the heart of that that chase right now and plus 105 that is assuming you win your play in tournament games because the Lakers
Right now are the nine seed and their two back of the Kings two and a half back at Dallas for the seven seed and that that first team there in the play in tournament you know a team that has you know has been up and down all season
Under head coach Darin ham and you’re left wondering well if this is the case for LeBron coming out of healthy rest what’s it going to be like when the Lakers need to win games down the stretch against a lot of really good competition yeah absolutely and this is
Yeah we’re going to talk win totals next segment I think I think both of these teams it’s you can make great cases for I think you can make good cases to bet and under on wind current win totals for Golden State and LA uh but man we’re
Looking if you’re watching at home right now you’re seeing exactly what the what the standings are looking like uh and what the playin tournament situation could be I I still have enough faith in in the the greatness of players that are LeBron LeBron James Anthony Davis Steph
Curry that those teams are going to be fighting hard and not fall at least out of that picture there in those nine10 spots so probably it wouldn’t be an under bet for me on either one of those teams but I can understand if that’s the way you’re you’re looking on on each one
Of them both both teams certainly trended really well heading into the break Lakers wi 7 to 10 Warriors 8 of 10 both top five in offensive rating over the last 15 games there are things to about both teams especially on the Lakers front though no LeBron tonight understandably so that line has zoomed
Up so we’ll talk about those win totals coming up here in a little bit again Nick wh from Roa wire joins us as well also a big Hoops night I was you trying to get Kelly here to watch some college basketball last night you obliged Kelly
And you caught a really good night we had upsets Galore and and if you’re betting this stuff uh especially like if you’re you know you’re playing favorites uh and they’re up big late and you’re let’s say you had Illinois last night who were up seven with 40 seconds to go
We’re covering against Penn State not only do they not cover they lose the game outright and it’s part of this growing Trend now Kelly where we always love to poo poo the idea of what does it really matter you know the rankings you know betters don’t care odds makers
Don’t care but there is this interesting development here in the college basketball season where the ranked teams on the road against unranked teams now if we’re just talking straight up setting aside the odds are only winning at a 55% clip this year that is on Pace
For by far the worst record in the mod AP pole era think about that 55% straight up and that’s including everybody I mean that even includes you know like when Marquette goes on the road against the Paul is a 20 point favorite that’s everything yeah I was going to say probably the smaller
Conference ones are the ones where it’s more shocking right because you usually have one or two of those teams that might be at the top and then you’ve got some Bottom Feeders uh that they can beat up on so yeah that is wow that is pretty stunning like Penn State upsets
Illinois last night 90 to 89 had a 4% win probability with one one minute to go that was crazy LSU stuns Kentucky at the buzzer last night there Kentucky was ranked 17th so it’s it’s fascinating how this has worked and we kind of juxtapose this too with one other recent Trend
That tends to be bet a lot and it’s the whole idea of the unranked home team who is actually favored against the ranked Road team so what I just said Kelly you would assume oh this thing has been a a great betting vehicle this year yeah and
OB and yet it actually hasn’t at least against the number because the odds makers have adjusted so well that you really these numbers have gotten inflated to the point where you’re better off taking the dog we had one example of that last night where Colorado State goes to New Mexico you
Know I I had I mean I based on the closing line I made a really bad bet I bet Colorado State on the opener plus six closed plus eight and a half at some shops Kelly game was played within three pretty much the whole way there was a
Brief stretch rout to Mexico got up six or seven early second half but that was a tight game all the way one of the best games of the Season as the two teams exchange buckets back and forth in the final two minutes just go back and watch
The final two minutes of that game if you haven’t already I mean it was an unbelievable finish but that’s another example of how that line at 8 and a half at close was ridiculously high and we’re now 18 and 18 against the number this season you’re losing money if you just
Bet those spots situationally even in a season where the ranked Road teams are doing horribly on the road it still has not really manifested into actually cashing tickets yeah I think it’s I think it’s just a good overall point about Trends right like it is uh uh you
Know what what was our old friend Jimmy varo say uh Trends don’t pay the rent that that is the cas you need to make sure you’re tracking these things uh every year and look I think in in general right that is a it’s a solid overall trend to be aware of every
College basketball season if you are betting college basketball regularly but yeah it’s not every every game is not created the same every match up’s not created the same um and then you know some of these years it turns into stuff like that so it’s uh not shocking to
Hear hear that’s happening right the other part of this too and it’s not not you know again what are we looking for actionable information right you I don’t know how actionable this is it’s more just a commentary for you a lot of the Casual betters who okay they see
Selection Sunday coming up they’re or wanting to get involved now they’re at least paying attention here to the lines every day this has been as far as I can remember Kelly one of the worst years for pro betters in college basketball in a really really long time and it you
Know we were joking last night just over text how you know the one side I bet that was you know a pro side that moved two points in my direction I was never close to covering with Alabama the one side where I was totally against the
Smart money was an easy win I mean and that’s kind of how this college basketball season has been there’s a really respected Syndicate that’s been doing this for a really long time that is having their worst season ever and has been that has been very a very publicly known thing in the betting
Circles that’s not to say you should just say oh what are the pros betting go the other way it’s just more to have that context now going forward where you really need to be going deeper into your analysis of these games if you’re a better and not just blindly saying oh
Hey two-point line move here great situation because only as to the NCAA tournament where the Vari Rises and you have much more handleing action on these games yeah I think it applies to I I mean look I’ve noticed that big time in in the NBA
This season to where where I feel like I have been kind of like you had last night whatever whatever number I’m grabbing moves against me ends up closing I could have gotten a better number and you know majority of them I’m still I’m still cashing I think there
Some of that has to do with so you know every single year we’re going to bring this up um you know until all 50 states I guess are legalized but we’ve got more and more betters in the market every single year so it does mess with your
Head but I think it’s I think I’ve been lucky that when those were happening to me earlier in the early in the NBA season I was still winning them enough that I didn’t really let it affect my betting but because it is you know over the long run that closing line value it
It’s called value for a reason you are getting value if you’re getting clo you know if you are getting value whatever the closing number is if you’re getting a better number than what that is over the long run that is going to turn into winning bets for you but it’s just
Season to season it can change a little differently and you are seeing some some people in better so not like we’re sitting out here saying oh yeah you should feel great about yourself if you take plus six and the game closes n right exactly you know but it’s it’s
Just more something to keep keep in mind here as we go forward here there’s only a few weeks left in the College of basketball regular season and then selection Sunday right around the corner as well when we come back we’ll dive into NBA in season win totals with the
Post Allstar break schedule starting tonight here on a num scheme which I look forward to reading because I I would admit I usually laugh at people who bet spring training baseball but there is a method to that Madness you can make money off it I had
I had a system for that back in the day but that’s uh that’s when I was technically covering spring training baseball and I would I would just show up before everybody else and see when the lineup got posted on the door you would just you go out to uh you know you
Go out to your local old Roger Stadium up there in Jupiter Florida say go out to the old Jupiter Country Club hey who’s on the first te right now versus who’s in the club okay I’m going to that was the only thing I had though it was
Like okay if there’s a you know you get those spring training games where is there a star or two playing in it or is it nobody playing in it right or the split squads or you don’t know who’s going exactly the split squads yeah where they’re all over the place
Remember my dad tell me he was going to a spring training game in you know in Scottsdale and he’s walking in they’re excited to watch the guys and as they’re walking in like four stars from the Brewers are walking out to go on a bus like whoa and they’re like oh yeah we’re
Going to the golf course and it was like third inning you know they were done they were done for the day uh we will have a lot more baseball to come especially when Gil gets back next week but right now post Allstar break in the NBA resumes tonight and we are talking
Our favorite win total bets that you can bet right now these are available at DraftKings number of other markets as well now that we have for the most part about 25 games left in the 82 game regular season we’ll we’ll go back and forth here Kelly I’ll start with my
Favorites we’ll go back and forth with you I’ll go to the negatives first and if there is a team I’m looking to fade if we’re trying to extrapolate out teams that are going to be not only in Cell mode because they’re after the deadline but teams who are in absolutely zero
Incentive to win mode the Washington Wizards are at the top of this list they’re nine and 45 so far and yet for the rest of the season the win total is set at 16 a half there is a little bit of under juice with that but for
Washington to go over that number they would need to go8 and 20 over their final 28 games and have the eighth toughest remaining strength of schedule it’s a team that while they still have Denny ABIA who’s been a great great stats bad team guy and Jordan p is just
Basically freelancing doing whatever the hell he really wants to this is a team that is that leads the league in Pace they love to go fast and yet they don’t defend anybody 27th in defensive rating this season they have not been able to shoot threes very well all year despite
Taking a ton of them 27th in threes and our third last in offensive rating as a whole if you’re it’s one of those weird things Kelly if you’re GNA go fast in the NBA and you are making that part of your core identity you would think you’d
At least be somewhat good at it the other teams in the NBA who are top five in Pace yeah Milwaukee Bucks Atlanta Hawks and the Indiana Pacers they all rank top 10 in offensive rating yeah and it makes sense if you are a good team in transition and pushing Tempo you should
Make that part of your identity if you’re not why would you keep going down that path yet Washington has in the interim head coach Brian Keefe is in there just trying to you know help uh get through the season get through the season essentially because yeah they’ve
Been doing this from from day one and you’re right they it’s been them running into a wall every time do just real quick you know kind of a little bit Nuance on the on the NBA season right we keep hearing everybody go crazy about all these high the high scoring and
Stuff yeah it a large part of it is because you have teams like the ones you just listed off that are so efficient offensively and high paced offensively and then suck defensively exactly uh and again team that lean into that for no apparent reason and also Washington now
You have a really tough schedule going forward you and the the other thing too the the starting lineup has been super consistent they’ve barely missed any games you got to think as you get later I mean Kyle kosma for the second straight year a deadline candidate does
Not get moved from Washington which I was surprised at second straight year I’ve been I’ve been rooting for kba to go to the Bucks Kelly as a Bucs Fan that didn’t happen and he kept AIA still there through the deadline pool’s been starting every game you would think as
The season goes on some of those guys start the old uh the old dnp CD uh parenthesis rest yeah we go forward I think overall just when you’re looking at this Market in general and and I’m kind of mad at Ben because I I really spent a lot of time
On this and deep diving into these yesterday because I was convinced I was going to find one or two bets that I would actually actually make I didn’t I got a lot that I lean to including this wizard this Wizard’s underplay I think you’re right but the biggest point I
Think that you can make is these win totals are set right now you’re you’re GNA find more value on the unders in most of these than overs because there’s too many things that you can bring up right so some of these bad teams just getting dmps on some of the star players
Not wanting to risk injuries if you’ve got teams obviously that are in playoff positions teams that you could make a bit of a tanking argument for even though we don’t really have you know a clear top you know couple uh uh great NBA talents prospects coming out in the
Draft there’s still always reason more reasons to play an under at this point in the season than over usually I definitely found myself gravitating toward that and just looking you know down the list there were few overs though that you look at and you go based on the current team roster construction
There are definite paths to finding a lot of success down the stretch the Miami heater a team I look at the changes they’ve made and all the injuries that the Heat have had to overcome currently sitting 45 and a half on their inseason win total which means
They’d have to go 16 and 11 over their final 27 games but have the fourth easiest strength to schedule in that span he’d have used 29 different starting lineups 190 games missed and yet they’ve started to find their stride 13th in offensive raing last five games before the All-Star break and the Terry
Roier trade while he is out right now expected to come back in a week or two with a knee injury that has completely changed the dynamic on offense because with roir now in the penetration is so much better for Miami he’s able to drive find open Corner Shooters where the heat
Are now averaging over 11 and a half Corner threes a game that would League the NBA on the entire basis of the season so you set up your Dead Eye three-point Shooters like a Duncan Robinson and a Tyler herro H 40 plus and three-point shooters by the way and now
Miami just has so much more cohesion on offense along with a defense that has been Rock Solid all year the best defense in overall rating in the month of February once everybody’s healthy and into the fold which should happen in the next couple of weeks I really like Miami
To make a Deep Run they are not the team that is currently sitting seventh in the East they are much better than that unit and 16 and 11 is very much attainable over the final stretch yeah I think the one um the other so you can you know
Arguments for over and the unders right okay they’re a team that’s current currently in that seven seed in the East you’re going to think they’re also going to be doing everything they can to get out of that playin situation and get into the top six so you’re not you know
That’s a situation where some of these guys where even maybe if Jimmy Butler could use a night off isn’t going to get one because they really do need to get into that top six I don’t hate it I just don’t believe in this Heat team at all
Uh but I know you have a very love hate that relationship exactly but I felt the same way last year and you know look what happened I think that I love the Terry Rosier trade I do love that I think that there is a good chance that
They do look like a different team down this final stretch and as we get into the playoffs as you mentioned so many of the the starting lineups have changed over and over again because of the injuries if they can get everybody back on the court find some consistency maybe
They can put this together just the season Long offensive numbers have been so poor for them uh it’s just hard for me to trust them right now especially while rosier’s out where there is still some questions on you know what that how how long that might be here I know but I
Mean Butler’s been out for two and a half weeks had the had the personal absence the death in the family he’s expected you know to be back soon but at all all sort of uh big angles there to keep in mind here with the heat down the
Home stretch for you Kelly you know you didn’t end up with any bets here but what did you end up liking on the at least the lean side here yeah there was uh there was kind of five that I isolated uh and three I was going to
Talk about here but W Wizards was one that stuck out to me I think another bottom feeder or a bottom team I’m going to bring up real quick two is Pistons I think Pistons under 14 and a half we need to finish 721 to go over Monty Williams out here saying yeah we’re
Going to we’re going to keep fighting hard it’s like oh really Monty now you’re going to try to right exactly now you’re you know keep in mind this is a team that like I was higher on them beginning of the season but we’ve gotten to a point now where okay they’ve also
Traded away good players but donovich isn’t there anymore Monte Morris got traded away so they’ve also lost some players I think that’s one you could look at uh you could look at as well the other one that didn’t put didn’t didn’t put on the graphic but I think is one I
Could be attracted to as well and I’ve heard several other NBA handicappers mentioned is the Suns uh Suns under 48 and A2 just cuz you’re not going to push some of those veteran players as you get closer however I will bring up kind of same thing with the Miami Heat of them
Being very close to that play in situation that I you would I I think you want to avoid as much as you possibly can and stay inside that top six so that’s the only reason where it didn’t become a stronger lean or a bet for me
Uh on the Suns um to get into the ones I do like magic over 45 and a half I don’t think this is a team that’s going anywhere in the Eastern Conference um they finally are getting guys back healthy we’re seeing Paul banero have another great season fron Vagner back in
The lineup they are playing much better uh Team Basketball they need to finish 1611 to go over that Mark easiest schedule left in the NBA um and then they again avoiding that play in race it it would be crucial the way I would play this though wait till they play the Cav
Probably tonight I did bet the magic tonight actually with the points but you’re talking about a seven-point spread in that game tonight I yes I took plus seven and a half I didn’t bet the money line though um I would I would think if you’re if you’re worried about
That game tonight wait till tomorrow at least the juice will change on this if not the number by a game uh real quick then Timber is under 56 and a half this is just look they got to finish 17 and 10 they hit this over um you don’t have
A a really tough schedule left but they play all the Marquee teams in the Western Conference so I know there’s some people really high on Minnesota and them needing to get homec court advantage it’s just easier said than done with what they do have left on the
Schedule and the Jazz under 37 and a half I think this goes into uh what you brought up about uh the Wizards and some of their players Jazz not going anywhere could see some time on the bench they’d have to go 12 14 to hit the over fourth
Toughest schedule remaining um this is one I’d be looking to after tonight when they play the horns I like it we’ll transition Co a little college hoops with our pal Tim Murray on the other side a numbers game on Vin the sports betting network if you’re looking for a betting
Edge on college basketball the vent experts have got you covered become a vent Pro subscriber today and get our daily Best Bets emails 24/7 video access the upcoming college hoops Betting Guide bracket breakdowns plus full access to von.com with our exclusive betting split breakdowns on every game visit von.com
Proo to subscribe today that is vs.com slpro and speaking of our college basketball experts we have Tim muray coming up with us right now here on a numbers game we had a great card last night Kelly unfortunately tonight leaves uh little to be desired Kelly you were
Saying because of the the NBA coming back that was your thought season starts tonight for a lot of people you got to clear out the college basketball man meanwhile Tim shaking his head uh over over over at home here he joins us right now uh Tim going back to last night
First since there’s not a ton of great games on the card tonight then we’ll get into just some big picture stuff what do you make of what’s going on with the the usage of Rob Dillingham in Kentucky which has been this consistent story now in SEC play it’s like coach Calipari
Barely wants to play him yet he comes out he’s rising in all the the mock drafts in the NBA ranks for next year hits a ridiculous fadea away to give Kentucky a late lead they then get walked off on a buzzer beater by LSU last night seems really bizarre for a
Kentucky team that is faded in SEC play and now sits on the six seed line As We Stand today yeah it is it’s really you know uh I’m going to use a word that I’m excited to use befuddling uh doesn’t make a ton of sense uh when you look at
I mean I know Ben you’re more piped into you know the draft kind of world than I am especially with the g-league work that you do but I mean in a pretty weak draft uh he’s a guy that’s going to be I don’t know if he’ll be number one but
He’s going to be definitely high up there and it’s it’s really made not a ton of sense uh and then this Kentucky team doesn’t make a lot of sense and you know what I’m curious about about uh guys moving forward if you look at you know the Futures market and you know
Last night was another case right uh they weren’t top 10 uh as I ver you know Veer into Illinois uh but you know I I had Penn State last night and honestly I thought I was fortunate to get the cover and then they win the game out just
Talking about seven with like a minute to go so uh it’s just that’s just what this year has been and uh I think it’s going to be a really fascinating tournament and I think Kentucky to your point Ben is going to be one of those teams where you know on the first Friday
Or whenever you know first Friday of the tournament and and Kentucky gets knocked out we’re going to say yep we saw it coming but we could also say this Kentucky team makes a run to the elite 8f final 4 and you’re like yeah they got the talent out there so I think they’re
Kind of one of the unique aspects of this entire college basketball season I mean look at this run here you lose at home a couple Saturdays ago to Gonzaga a team that I mean it felt felt like from the betting standpoint and I know in uh
I don’t know if a lot of people in in human’s contests laid it with Kentucky but I certainly knew a couple people who just thought that was a slam dunk they lose that game outright as a four-point favorite and then you fast forward to last weekend guys and they go to Auburn
And they pull out a win as an eight-point dog and then last night as you alluded to they lose to LSU which was a it was a kind of a a classic let down spot but I mean that’s what this year in college basketball really has
Been and hell I mean you could even lump Yukon and Purdue into falling into that recently with you know Purdue losing to Ohio State and then you know yesterday or two nights ago losing Yukon losing to cron but you know back to your your you know kind of initial answer or question
Yeah I I don’t fully understand what what ky’s doing from a usage standpoint uh of of the talent that they have on this roster and and Coach C has done this before you know Gary Parish of CBS has has talked about it uh where this is
Not new I mean there have been moments I mean Devin Booker look up his numbers from from his time at K he average like 17 minutes a game I mean it’s it’s pretty wild how he will do this but ky’s one of those teams where you know for us
As betters I kind of want them to keep losing uh just to see if we can you know maybe get them it I don’t it kind of feels a little bit like uh when Kentucky beat Witchita State when they were the undefeated one seed like could we get
Them on that six line or seven line and they could be a really sneaky second round kind of uh you know upset type of play yeah Kentucky was an e seed that year made the run to the final four you still feel bad for the the Witchita
State Drew Kentucky still feels like a an egregious egregious decision by the committee I still remember that was was not not a fun undefeated out of the out of the Missouri Valley and they put him there in the one line against Kentucky what ridiculous I uh i’ I still remember
That I agree wholeheartedly with you on that Tim 10 years later we go to and as a result of that you know you look at the bubble now because of all the parody in college basketball the bubble is as fascinating this year as I can remember
Tim with so many teams who have either worked their way onto it after seemingly being dead in the water or now all of a sudden being in Peril of missing the tournament after looking like a lock solid a rock solid team earlier in the season a team that kind of fits in the
Former category is Villanova as we have some of these bubble props right now at DraftKings I’m shocked that Villanova there’s minus 130 to make the tournament they’re 15 and 11 they’ve gotten hot recently they’re still in the next four out category at least in AR Brack
Andology at ESPN now having one three or four but they still have to go at Yukon do get a home game against kraton here down the home stretch and Kyle Neptune’s team has playing really good defense right now offense still leaves a lot to be desired what do you make of this home
Stretch here for Nova as a minus 130 favorite to get into the big dance yeah and as we’re sitting here and and you we talked about it last night and we’re you know I think me jvt and Jim root who was on the show last night are kind of
Kicking ourselves cuz we were throwing around these props and Cincinnati was one that we said you know maybe we play the no uh after they beat Oklahoma State well they lost to Oklahoma State and now they are in some trouble uh they are you know per bracket Matrix and now bracket
Matrix I reference it a lot on my show for those who do not know bracket Matrix is a really good resource to utilize especially if you want to bet into these markets of the will they or won’t they make the NCAA tournament because it’s an aggregation of all the bracketologists
Out there but you got to remember not all of these have populated yet not everyone’s spitting them out every single day like you alluded to so yeah Villanova uh you know for them they are very you know hard team to figure out when you look at you know what their
Body of work to this point you know you think back earlier in the year Ben they went you know and did that uh I think they went to the Bahamas and won some really big games um but you know for Villanova I I I’m not seeing this as a a
Full-on you know like they should be a favorite to make the NCW tournament type of team I mean think about it this way uh they got Yukon on Saturday so they’re going to be a massive Underdog uh in that spot they still have kraton albeit they get that at home uh tricky Road
Game at Providence at seatan Hall uh I would certainly look at right now uh without fully diving into you know all the yes and NOS but I would look at the no on Villanova at even money guys just because of you know where where they sit right now what the schedule looks like
It it feels like a bit of an overreaction to uh you know look a nice win yesterday over over Butler but uh or two days ago I should say but I don’t know I mean you’ve got Road games at Yukon Providence and Sean Hall still left and a home game against kraton who
You know is certainly feels like they’re hitting their stride at the right time there so uh you know we we’ll see what happens here with Kyle Neptune Squad moving forward but yeah I alluded to that you know stretch earlier on in the year uh where they got some nice wins
They you know they beat North Carol Carolina which is uh which is helping out the Memphis win we’ll see uh doesn’t look as good as maybe it was when they got it back in late November uh as Memphis got a much needed win and they play FAU you know the interesting one
Ben is a team that plays tonight in this yes no Market it’s Gonzaga you know Gonzaga is probably one of the last four in uh at this point in time they have one quad one win uh to their resume right now which is the road game against Kentucky they’ll still have a couple
Opportuni upcoming as they go to San Francisco and to St Mary’s but you know Ben we were talking about this last night on the show they’re minus $3 to make the NCAA tournament I don’t see that right now for this Gonzaga team while they’re probably in the field at
This point in time you got to remember some of these bubble teams if they make a run in the in their conference tournaments you just add a lot to your resume uh the only reason I wouldn’t race to take the 220 is that we know living here in Vegas how often this
Gonzaga team goes to The Orleans and wins that conference tournament so I mean obviously if you win the auto bid you’re getting in and you win your bet so I wouldn’t recommend by any stretch of the imagination minus $3 that price is off however I would be nervous to
Take the plus 220 Ben just because of the possibility and the reality that Gonzaga in a win in a must-win spot on a Tuesday night in March at The Orleans AKA Spokan South that they beat St Mary’s in and get the auto bed and a healthy 21 and a half Point favor
Tonight on the road against shanté Leeds Portland pilot so you know it’s not like the competition is great there night and night out in the WCC as Tim Murray joins us right now host of visent prime time 6 to9 Eastern Time Monday through Friday here on the network follow him at one
Tim Murr at least for the other games tonight here Tim no place for you but uh what do you make of this spot for wazu who’s kind of played themselves off the bubble they’ve had a really good stretch recently under Kyle Smith catching 13 on the road in Tucson at Arizona tonight
Yeah I would actually look look if anything look Arizona here um it’s a Revenge spot for Arizona and you know it’s not the same situation Ben but we saw this last week right Indiana state gets ranked for the first time since 1979 they lose to Illinois State as a 17
And a half Point favorite Washington State a little bit different uh first time ranked since 2008 so it has been a long time Kyle Smith has done an absolutely remarkable job as you said they’re going to be in the NCAA tournament but Arizona kind of think they’re kind of going into gear right
Now you got that Revenge angle uh I don’t like laying points but uh it would be Arizona or pass for me in this spot I think it’s a really good spot for the cats uh to to make a statement tonight out there in uh in Tucson that betters
Have been squarely on Arizona that’s moved up a points point and a half since the open he’s Tim Murray follow at one Tim Murray Tim always great to talk to you pal all right see you Ben Tim will have his show tonight as well check out
Von Prime Time 6 to9 Eastern as well we’ll talk some NBA MVP te when we come back a numbers game on V the sports betting Network this week on draftking Sportsbook new customers can deposit $5 and get a no sweat bet up to $1,000 in bonus bets if your first bet loses
Download the app and use promo code vsn when you sign up draftking Sportsbook the crown is yours you can use a no sweat bet on live bet some golf Kelly bidin tracking the Mexico open which is now underway tough start for one of your guys Keith Mitchell but he’s bounced
Back Kelly I don’t know Keith Mitchell everybody else did everybody else did classic me assuming you uh you had him because no but I played uh yeah I got a lot of my guys are on the course right now I did play some first round leaders we didn’t
Bring it up early because they are all all are all out there on the course right now um I did play Taylor pendrith first round leader as I played him like everything this week I did play Michael Kim and I did play Doug Kim I don’t know
Where Doug Kim’s oh he’s back to even he he had a rough start as well but uh yeah uh I think Michael Kim is the only one right now that looks uh even remotely threatening in the first round leader Market but uh yeah we were commenting on
It uh kind of early or first break or before the show the uh the uh mixed scoring so far out there this is usually a pretty easy course and there’s a lot of guys struggling a lot of guys struggling early out there we and you went rush to check the weather nope
That’s not an isue fine yeah perfectly fine we check the what was in the my ties last night at that might that should have been our second order of business there cam champ four under through six holes he is plus 380 live right now to be first round
Leader as a heavy favorite at the moment it always you know it always reminds me though and you check the you wake up and you check the scores and your guys are not doing well of the 2022 when I had a first round leader on Tom Kim at the
Windam first hole of his tournament snowman I wake up and I’m like well I can go back to bed this is over well Tom Kim ends up going 24 under over his next 71 holes to win the tournament his first career PGA Tour win so you know I always
Think back to that it happens it happens and then you chuckle like camera champ this is like the one of the few courses he’ll ever win on he could win on you know bom bombers par we’ll have more yeah we’ll keep it posted as the tournament and the weekend goes on as
Far as the Mexico open goes right now though Kelly as we continue our a mega NBA day here on the show with the post Allstar break festivities resuming tonight and Nick wh from rowi joins us as well in about 50 minutes to talk more big picture NBA we go to the MVP race
Where you are still very much believ in Kelly there is some value to be had here four guys now under 10 to one with the latest odd showing ni yic that minus 135 favorite but based on where we’re at right now reason to believe this thing
Is far from over with still 25 28 games or so still to play yeah absolutely in my opinion it’s far from Over the uh uh you know latest Tim bontemp straw poll from a couple weeks ago it did it did seem like there was a lot of yish love
Out there um I’m still kind of questioning how much that happened just very quickly after embiid embiid getting you the news comes out he’s going to be out going to get surgery and that he’s kind of disqualified from the race and very soon after that uh the the straw
Pole was put together and I’m wondering how many people kind of just send in joic uh without you know really diving into some stuff where they where they will with a lot of these people that are voters will’ll do that you know before they have to submit their official MVP
Selection in my opinion Ben yo these joic and SGA numbers should be much closer together we have seen that uh you know surprisingly over the All-Star break that yic number has come down I think it got out to like minus 150 up up at DK come down a little bit we’ve seen
That SGA number get a little shorter so I think that does uh make some sense um when you’re talking about some of the advanced metrics you know EPM estimated plus minus over at dunen 3 is it’s big measurement of individual success just kind of per 100 possessions SGA only
Behind Joel embiid for the season if you go into winshare uh SGA is number one in the NBA and that is usually highly correlated with who has won the MVP in past years so I I think there’s still some value uh on SGA over 2 to one I
Think the other movement that we’ve seen in the market during the All-Star break so it’s not like there’s any games being played I it’s the next three guys below joic and SGA here and it’s yanis keeps getting a little bit longer okay Luca had had had gotten short drifted back
Out now he’s kind of below that 10 to1 Mark again he’s at 9 to one and then we’ve seen this Tatum Love recently which I I get that he’s the best player on on the best team in the NBA I just think when you start looking statistically at what everybody else is
Doing he doesn’t really belong in this conversation I think that I think him and Kawhi Leonard are kind of the same uh the same story right now and it would you know it would require kaai that that team to be the one seed in the west but
Those numbers are a little bit more comparable than the four guys above them Luca I’m not I can’t get there on I he could be awesome I do think the Dallas Mavericks are going to be better here post All-Star break and actually go into the playoffs with some with some
Momentum but where they’re currently at record-wise you just don’t you the last time we saw something like this and one of the few times we’ve SE we’ve seen something like this for the past 30 years is when Russell Westbrook averaged over a triple double for the entire of a
Season and yes Luca’s numbers are close to that and he’s scoring way more than Westbrook did in that year I I still just can’t get where that team’s at right now in the standings uh at what seventh in the Western Conference yeah seventh in the western conference right
Now uh at 32 and 23 I I just don’t think he’s real really realistic of getting home so I think it goes back to those top three guys and I don’t think Giannis is out of it either I do think that I got to take a step back on that having
Seen the straw poll results where there really wasn’t much love for him you know at one or even two um not as much as I was expecting but I think there’s still a path for Giannis to get home in this award too if you were a believer in the
Bucks that they’re going to turn this around and actually head into the playoffs with some momentum if that defense looking a little bit better um you know the odd part since Doc Rivers come on board is that defense has gotten better it’s been the offense that’s
Taken a step back I think if they’re able to get back to that two seed in the East beat out the Cavs in that division get back to the two- seed in the East finish strong here and that National narrative changes a little bit on the
Bucks people are going to look and see that Giannis is going to have possibly his highest scoring season of his entire career and have more assists in a season than he’s ever had in his entire career I think this conversation gets really interesting with MVP in him so I already
Have multiple bets on him uh I got a couple on SGA longer numbers as well I think they’re both very pble still right now at those current numbers Bucks have the third easiest schedule as well coming up and you have to to believe after finally getting a a week to at
Least breathe if you’re Doc Rivers I don’t know if I would have gone on the whole media tour that doc did and explaining all the negatives about the timing of him taking the job for Milwaukee but I guess he had been in the media this year so it’s understandable
Yeah you would think all the thing all the all the metrics and different circumstances are in line you know just comparing the advanced numbers too where joic is usually where he is the guy who sets himself apart is because the advanced stats are just unassailable right and they’re so much better yic is
You know he’s about a point better on both off iive rating and defensive rating than the Giannis right now player impact estimate I don’t know how much you ever look into that Kelly it’s you it’s slightly higher than Giannis but they’re all you know they’re in the same
Ballpark right now correct and the team’s records are a game and a half different at the moment for as much as the narrative has been oh the Bucks have just been a a a train wreck for the most part they’re still only a half game out
Of the two seed in the in the East so is there really enough difference there to suggest okay should joic be that far away from Yannis in the overall odds just considering the pedigree and that is that is simply my whole point right it comes down to the betting odds and
What you look at the betting odds it it implies that there’s a bigger difference between bigger separation between all three of these players right than than in actuality there is and just from a from an NBA fan perspective Nicole yic he’s the best player in the NBA he’s
He’s that he is surpassed I I was beating the Giannis drum for a long time of Giannis being the best player in the NBA you know that um it is joic embiid Giannis I think pretty clearly in that order as far as the best players but yes
Yic is having a great year yes we’re going to expect to see that from him every single year and when you’re talking about a season where his numbers are just at least slightly worse overall than what we’ve seen out of him in MVP years in the past and then you got to
You’ve got a story in a case like sgaa leading a group of you know quote unquote nobodies you know kind of to to where they’re at in the Western Conference I think it’s a hell of a story hell of hell of a narrative not really being discussed as much as it
Should be uh in my opinion of what the what this thunder team’s really doing this year it’s to me is such a great case that if if it doesn’t happen this year Ben where you where someone can beat out yic when is it ever going to happen right and that that’s kind of
Where I I think there’s another reason where you could make an argument for a bet on one of these guys because I think some voters will be thinking that it’s not NE I don’t want to call it necessarily voter fatigue right but a reason you know yoke is is going to be
Around in this conversation for the next several years so a is it to give another guy an award this year I think some voters will look that way is it would it be enough like if OKC what do they have to do get to their Winder right now 54
And a half like what would it take I think they got part of the you know part of the team equation here yeah I think it’s a great question because that definitely plays into a lot of these situations we brought it up with Milwaukee I mean is it one seed in the
West maybe not but they got to beat out Denver right I think if they beat out Denver then it you could at least point to that hey they had a better season than Denver Nuggets did that’s another check mark in the in the SG a camp at
Right now both teams 54 and a half on the win total so that would indicate if you are just making this if you’re making that case right Kelly and you’re basing it on the team success because the numbers already you know pretty well documented at this point pretty good
Sample size odds are basically even on those teams who will have finish with a better record now and the odds of the MVP as we’ve talked about not exactly shaded that way yic minus 135 and shil just Alexander at plus 210 still to come we will talk more NBA Nick Wayan from
Roa wire joins us to kick off hour number two also have I want to make sure I talked for a couple minutes about uh the Austin Matthews the movement here in the heart troph Kelly bidin made a hockey bet we’ll discuss that in now number two is Matthews gets goal number
50 last night shout out to our our guest from yesterday uh JD for uh for for getting that one he was all over it we have a lot to get to still power number two of a numbers game starts next
