On today’s Green Dot Daily, Maria Marino is joined by NBA expert Jay Money as he breaks down the recent Warriors’ success and gives out his favorite play for tonight’s NBA slate. Next, we have Buckets legend Jim Turvey who joins the show to give us his favorite plays for tonight’s NBA action. Then we have college hoops expert Mike Calabrese joining the show breaking down his favorite matchups and picks for the college basketball slate. Lastly, golf expert Spencer Aguiar joins the show to breakdown Tiger Woods’ return to tournament play and some of his favorite picks for the Genisis Invitational.
Green Dot Daily is Action Network’s daily sports betting show! We’ll take you through the entire sports betting odds landscape and give you the insights, analysis, and betting picks you need to get ready for tonight’s games.
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With up part people That the welcome to green. daily I’m Maria Marino we’re live every weekday at 3 Eastern on the action app and YouTube channel later in the show we’ll get some picks in men’s college hoops as well as the PGA Tour but we start in the NBA and don’t
Look now the Warriors have won five straight after last night’s victory over the Jazz Draymond Green was asked What’s led to finding more success over the last couple weeks honestly I think me getting suspended helped uh in a weird way because number one since I got JK is taking off not
That I wanted to get suspended uh or I was good or anything like that but I do think uh it it kind of helped us find different things that we can go to and explore and now you add me back into the freay you add GP back from his injury CP
Will be coming back and now you got those pieces um coming back that you know you know you can rely on but you know it’s it’s not just us it’s everybody who’s stepping Lester ghe you know it’s everybody who’s going out there uh is playing good basketball so I think that’s good for
Us with that we bring in Jay money so what’s your reaction to the Warriors recent performance and also Draymond saying the suspension helped in a way yeah I actually really agree with Draymond there sometimes less is more like sometimes you can get addition by subtraction um like he said obviously he
Didn’t want to get suspended but it did help out Jonathan kaminga like he had he got a chance to play a lot more figure some things out ker fig figured out the rotations as well so uh sometimes that happens like in the NBA a guy will go
Down with an injury or something like that and then it just helps the team become closer and some younger guys start to play better so I actually agree with Draymond whatever they did it’s working right now because I mean the Warriors they’re already in playoff mode
We know that they were sitting at like the 11th or 12th seed well they’re up to the 10th seed now they’ve won five straight games they’ve won seven of the last eight and also s-1 against the spread in that span as well coming off a huge game versus the Utah Jazz I expect
Them to keep this going for the rest of the season and I um I mean I don’t think we see Curry miss the playoffs like what are we doing here I I don’t think so either I mean for Steph Curry who’s still one of the best players in the
League to not be in the playoffs it would be an absolute crime I just don’t see it happening and by the way they’re at plus 124 to make the Western Conference playoffs and you mentioned they currently said in 10th and that’s the final playin spot all right let’s
Get your picks for tonight what do you got yeah I like the Orlando Magic tonight plus a two and a half the magic been playing some really good basketball lately they’re 5-1 straight up in their last six games s-1 against the spread in their last eight games as well and
They’re playing at home this is where they played their best basketball 17- seven straight up at home this season 16- seven against the spread and they’re also the seventh best team in the NBA 7-4 against the spread as a home Underdog uh I think that they probably
Win this game out right so let’s go magic tonight um I like the magic plus two and a half here yeah great point about their home record seventh best in the league and they’ve been right in that playoff mix currently sixth in the East just behind Philly J money thank you anytime
Mar sticking with the NBA the Suns have been jelling over the last month or so they’re 11- four in their last 15 games tied for third in the league in that span also fifth in points per game and sixth in three-point percentage the big three of Kevin Durant Devin Booker and
Bradley Beal have been a huge part of that each of them filling up the box scores how about Booker by the way averaging 31 and a half points in that span so with that we say hello to our Hoops analyst Jim Turvy Suns looking for a bounce back after that onepoint loss
To the warriors on Saturday what do you make of this matchup tonight against the Kings yeah you walk through a little bit of it there but this Suns team has been really strong you know they were one I was kind of fading from a a grand perspective to start the season but with
These three guys in the lineup it it has been impressive uh they they really have been you know kind of a big three uh if we use the exact demarcation point of when Beal returned to lineup full-time he hasn’t missed the game since it’s December 29th since then they’re 16 and
Seven with a plus 6.6 net rating that’s about the best you know that that put you in the top tier of teams in the league compare it to the Kings who they’re taking on uh the Kings they’ve been solid they you know they kind of are about what they were last year
They’ve had good uh injury luck they’ve actually had a little bit of overall luck um Accord according to cleaning glass they are the the luckiest team um in the entire MBA by win differential so their team I’m kind of looking to Big scale fade they they really are a tier
Below this Suns team so Suns only Hanging Five right now that’s a number I really like um with them in this this groove that they’re in and honestly it even feels like more than just like a Groove to me right now this team feels like when they are healthy with all
Three in their lineup they really are in that top tier and the market hasn’t quite caught up to them um I mentioned the Kings as as you know one of the luckiest teams the in the NBA they also struggle against some of the top teams um they have the worst uh spread
Differential of any team against the top 10 in the NBA this season so basically what that means that’s another cleaning the glass number what that means is when they face off against these top 10 teams the Market’s treating them as if they’re in that year when really it’s it is not
At all the case and it even gets worse on the road they’ve really struggled in those spots so this is one where I’m really eyeing the Suns I know uh Joe deera is on this as well this is kind of a day of of similar picks for for NBA
Which you know can can go well or can go poorly but uh this sun spot is one I really like today well you mentioned how the market hasn’t really caught up to the Suns and I admit I feel like I haven’t even caught up so I’m glad we went through
All of that and the suns are currently in that sixth spot in the West a half game up on Sacramento all right what else are you betting tonight yeah I got I got a a little bit of a funkier one for my second pick here I’ve got the
Celtics and Nets first quarter under so this is you know if you follow in me at follow me in the app you’ll see that I kind of Target these quarter and half derivatives especially first quarter and first half they aren’t as script dependent sometimes those third and
Fourth quarter ones the game goes a little bit Ary and then you know it doesn’t fit quite the same pregame expectation but this first quarter bet is one that these two teams all season um have really leaned towards the under so it kind of kind of checks every box
You look at so for the season overall both are hitting uh at 58% towards the under for the first quarter um you look the last 10 for the Nets it’s 7 of 10 for the Celtics at 6 of 10 you go Celtics on the road it’s at 56% and Nets
At home is 62% so this kind of is one of those if you’re a trenzy type person this checks about every Trend box that you that you can get and I really like those with these these first quarter and first half derivatives markets um where you aren’t as script dependent on on how
The game starts it’s it is how the game starts it’s the first quarter so I’m be looking at under 58 and a half um and that’s these quarter markets the other nice thing about that is you can kind of catch it later in the day you know a
Spread or a total might move significantly the quarter markets it’s hard for the books to move enough to really keep up with um some of the trends that we that we notice here with the with the start of games for Celtics and Nets from a narrative standpoint too I
Can totally see the Celtics not necessarily feeling like they got to get up against the Brooklyn Nets in the first quarter uh so I like that as well and I know that you’re in agreement as you alluded to with a couple of our other analysts and their picks and for
More on that make sure you check out the podcast buckets on Action Network Jim Turvy thanks so much yeah thanks for having me hey everybody it’s Joe deera and I’ve got a couple of my favorite plays for this Tuesday NBA slate the first play and the first game that we’re going to
Be be looking at is the Phoenix Suns against the Sacramento Kings and I’m going to be laying the points with the Suns at minus 42 you have the Phoenix Suns who have one of the most dynamic offenses in the league with Devin Booker Kevin Durant and Bradley Beal and those
Lineups with the three of them have a plus 15.2 Point differential and 130.4 offensive rating so while the defense is pretty average the offense is just completely Unstoppable and the biggest thing is that the sons of been able to keep at least one of them on the
Floor for about 96% of their possessions this season and the team has a plus 5.6 net rating as long as one of them is on the floor I think that the Suns offense is going to be overwhelming for Sacramento today and I’ll lay the points with the Phoenix Suns at minus
42 for my next play we’re looking to the Miami Heat versus the Milwaukee Bucks game and the the Miami Heat will be without a number of different players Jimmy Butler is out Terry Rosier is out Josh Richardson is out and D Duncan Robinson is also listed as questionable
So one player that I expect to step up is the rookie haime hakz Jr hakz has been excellent so far this season in an expanded role and in the 16 games he’s played Without Jimmy Butler he’s averaged 15.8 points in 33.5 minutes per game his points line today is set at 132
And that’s a number he’s exceeded in 12 of those 16 games so couple the fact that jimmmy Butler’s going to be out with Rosier also being out it takes away another high usage player that can get his own shot so while the Bucks present a tougher challenge defensively because of their
Drop defense you know and being so effective with Giannis and Brook Lopez on the interior hak’s usage should be off the charts in my expectation for this game I expect him to see 30 plus minutes tonight and when he’s done so he’s averaged 17.2 points per game I
Like Hami hakz to exceed 13.5 points against the Milwaukee Bucks finally we’re looking at the Orlando Magic versus the Oklahoma City Thunder and I’m looking at Jaylen Suggs over 1 and 1 half threes so the Thunder defense has been solid overall over the course of the season but one of the areas that
They’re a little bit weak is that they surrender the fourth highest frequency of three-point attempts and their opponents shoot about League average on those attempts one of Orlando’s best three-point Shooters this season is Jaylen Suggs Suggs takes about 50% of his shots from deep and is making 39% of
Them as well his minutes floor for the season has been pretty stable and when he sees 20 plus minutes per game he’s averaging 2.2 threes on 5.5 attempts but this actually jumps at home and he has a 74% hit rate on this line of one and a
Half threes when he’s playing in Orlando when these teams played earlier in the season he played 29 minutes but was just 1 for n from three in one of the worst shooting nights of the season I expect a better showing from sugs at home tonight
And I’ll grab over one and a half threes so to recap my three favorite plays for the Tuesday NBA slate are the Phoenix Suns minus 2 4 and A2 against the Sacramento Kings haime hawz Jr over 13 1 12 points and jayen Suggs over 1 and 1
Half threes best of luck on your Wagers today and enjoy the rest of your Tuesdays now to the college hardwood we go as our analyst Mike calabre is joining us once again full slated of games tonight a bunch of ranked teams in action where are you looking for your first pick so
How about a ranked team that hasn’t been the AP Top 25 since 1979 since a young Larry Bird was getting it done for the sycamores Indiana state is going to get an inspired effort playing with that number next to their name for the first time in a generation actually probably
Two generations at this point I think they’re going to cover a huge number against Illinois State you have to keep in mind the sycamores even before cracking the top 25 were one of the best home teams in the entire country undefeated on their home floor 9- one against the spread they’re super
Efficient offensively they lead the nation in what’s called rim and three-point rate so they take the two most efficient shots on the court and that’s translated to them scoring just about 86 points per game and when Illinois State kind of and also ran in the Missouri Valley has bumped up
Against the top of this conference two games against Drake one against Bradley they’re 0 and three against the closing number so I’ll go take Indiana State laying the 18 I think they win going away in this one Indiana State the sycamores what a mascot they are 13- one
In the MVC going for their 10th win in a row okay what else do you like we’ll stick with another team that is at the top of their mid- major conference dayon laying eight and a half at home against Dukan this is a a Breakout game or at
Least an opportunity for Holmes II he’s in a bit of a mini slum he was playing at an All-American level last two games he’s not hit double digits from shots from the field but against duain in their first meeting he posted a 33 and 12 night on 66% shooting from the floor
And the reason for that is the Dukes are one of the smallest teams in the A10 they’re 31st nationally in overall height according to kenpom and that’s an issue going up against the 6’10 at homes who can kill you on the offensive glass and as a real monster defensively the
Dukes also have some serious issues offensively they failed to crack 70 points in 10 their last 11 games checking in 259th in terms of shooting percentage from the floor and that’s not great against a Denon offense that can really soar when they get it going and finally situational element here since
2019 Anthony Grant the head coach of Dayton off of a loss has been an absolute ATM he’s cashing 60% of his tickets against the spread which is the best in the A10 and 13th nationally all right Anthony Grant look at him uh you know Dayton lost to VCU by
Just two points Friday night they had one three straight before that Mike thanks so much thanks Bria look who’s making his 2024 PGA debut at the Genesis Invitational later this week Tiger Woods his last start was the hero World Challenge in December 20123 and last major start was the
Masters earlier that year but he withdrew in the third round he’s currently tied for the PGA Tour record with 82 career wins as we welcome our golf expert Spencer agar back to the show so what are you expecting from Woods and his return I mean obviously I I think from a
Golf perspective with all the problems that we’ve had this season with or the past couple years with the PGA Tour and live Tiger Woods being front and center again is really good for the sport so I I want to preface that before I give an
Answer like if I end up being wrong and and tiger you know is in contention on Sunday that is great for the sport but I think one of the the things that’s at least interesting when you look at betting markets here and it’s a very indicative answer when you’re trying to
Find this there are certain sites out there where this is a 70 man field like it is massively Juiced to 44th or worse of what he’s going to finish almost all betting sites that you can find you have these one-way markets out there so what that means for anybody that doesn’t
Exactly know what that term is like you can only bet the positive results so it’s like Tiger Woods will have X amount of birdies you can bet the yes you can’t bet the know there I think when Sports books start giving you these oneway markets and these one-way streets for
Bets they’re clearly trying to kind of get the public better to get back and jump back in on the Tiger Woods train as I said I hope I end up being wrong here and I would love to see tiger find success but uh you know it’s tough when
You’re not in action all the time and this has not been historically a venue where he has necessarily found that high in success this is one of the venues where he hasn’t won in his career and you know there’s something to be said about that when markets are releasing things a certain
Way for sure and for what it’s worth he’s at plus 13,000 to win outright now what’s one of your Best Bets for the tournament I’m gonna go with Russell Henley over Denny McCarthy this week like one of the things I always talk about in head-to-head betting and and
I’ve mentioned it last week when we did the show together is I try to find people that I’m going to fade and it it’s really interesting for a tournament like this because we only have a 70 man field where the top 50 and ties will make the cut including anybody who’s
Within 10 shots of the lead so for me there’s really no cut at the end of the day you’re going to lose a handful of players that are the ones that are just massively behind the leader there at that point but I’m shooting for a little
Bit more upside on the Target that I’m trying to back more so than I would in most weeks be weeks because I do think you have an event here where almost every single player is going to get four rounds and when I look at this specifically Henley had some very
Intrigu upside numbers in my model that he put together and then on the flip side of that Denny McCarthy put together a bottom five return in my model for expected Strokes gain TAA green at Riviera Country Club I think that’s a downside return there that is what
You’re kind of looking for in this market where both of those two things enter I think that number is going to probably move a little bit before we close there like I can’t imagine we’re going to get much higher than Theus 130 range but I think anywhere in that like-
115 minus10 Zone is where there’s still value there but if you’re going to bet that I would jump on that before long okay fair enough how about your favorite pick to win outright so Maria we’ve gotten a really unique start to the season on the PGA tour like there’s
Been six events this year that have generated a winner of 100 the one plus some of those outcomes have landed us a big score that’s kind of similar to the Windam Clark at Pebble Beach bet that I talked about last week There’s Been others that have seen a stack a card
With a slew of long shot options not necessarily land the winner I think though with all of that being said this is where that run stops here like Riviera Country Club places us back into this mindset where there’s the challenge to this venue there’s the win Equity
That moves towards the top this is no longer one of those birdie Fest contests that require one ask from throughout the bag where we only have three or four top 25 players in the field instead we get this Behemoth of a course it features nearly half the holes possessing over a
20 % bogey or worst rate you have 18 of the top 20 players on the PGA tour here I think it becomes more challenging trying to pinpoint who is that name that’s actually going to win because there are a handful of options at that
Sub 35 to one or less range that kind of possesses some value this week but uh I decided to go a little bit further down this board away from the Scotty Sheffer Rory mroy uh Duo and I took Victor hland at 15 to1 you can shop around at this
Moment and find this as high as 19 to1 at specific books out there uh always do Price shopping at the best at the end of the day to find the best number that you can but I think kin’s poor showing at Pebble Beach and then the subsequent withdrawal before the WM Phoenix Open
Has just shifted the Intrigue from most inside the space uh I do want to note that despite his flawed performances he still technically in B start this season has produced part or better in every single round he has had 18 consecutive rounds of shooting par better that is
The third best on tour so far right now this season my model ranked him as the best player historically at Riviera Country Club when we looked at past results and then five of the top seven grades in my model when I ran the seven categories this week uh had Victor hin
There that placed him behind only Scotty Sheffer and Rory maray it’s back to those two names of why they’re the favorites at the top but I just seem to think that there was too big of a shift for why havn now has all of a sudden moved further behind the Rory Mary sort
Of name and even behind names like Xander Schley I I think he’s legitimately the third favorite and there is some value there whether it’s between 15 to 19 to one yeah it sounds like he has a high ceiling and may just be underpriced right now and hey it wouldn’t be the
First time this season that you have picked the outright winner Spencer thanks so much for your time thank you Maria I appreciate you having me as always remember any picks we give out here on the show you can easily reference by following green daily in the action app we keep track so you
Don’t have to and that’s all for green. daily I’m Maria Marino thank you so much for watching I’ll see you again tomorrow at 3 Eastern on the Action Network YouTube channel and the action app n
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