Alex Blickle and Justin Bates are back to break down the PGA betting slate for the 2024 Mexico Open. They have long-shot PGA Picks, Top 10 PGA Props, Head to Heads Golf Bets, Fantasy Golf sleeper picks and PGA DFS Picks!
Check out all their picks for the 2024 Mexico Open on this episode of Pro vs Pro and share your best Mexico Open Picks with the crew!
Timecodes
0:00 – Intro
0:33 – Riviera Recap
5:02 – Tiger Woods Struggles
9:45 – Spieth DQ
15:57- Patrick Cantlay
19:08 – Zalatoris is Back
29:45 – Hideki is ELITE
37:35 – Top 10 When They’re On
1:04:53 – Mexico Open Preview + Picks
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What’s going on everybody welcome back to Prov Pro we got a good one for you guys this week some Genesis Invitational recap Mexico open some early thoughts there uh Tiger Woods obviously we got to discuss where Tiger’s at at this point in the season incredible win from Hideki
Matsuyama alot torus made a fantastic return from injury and we got plenty to talk about with with his performance went through some difficult things this weekend as well Justin how you you feeling this I’m good man it it was a fun it’s fun to watch a golf tournament
Like that uh I think for a change you know you got to hit good shots um I think you you kind of see it with the people that come to the top of the leaderboard of you know we talk about it all the time of these guys that have
This special talent and you see you saw that in that leaderboard matama zot Torres um just it’s just impressive to see the shots now I think there’s probably some changes that need to be made to a couple of holes I mean you saw what was it four whatever that they
Could even hit it on the green it’s like 230 16% of the field hit that green it was something like the the lowest of all time and the the point that has been made by a lot of T players I think this week it was Adam shank who talked about
It more specifically where he said the problem with the hole isn’t how difficult it is it’s that it doesn’t reward good shots right like the best shots the the Towering purely struck four iron that comes into the green lands on the very front edge still goes
Through the back just as if you bladed a a hybrid or something something like that so I I think I’m in agreement there that something has to be done just to make it reward good shots but I also don’t want them to go to the extreme where Suddenly It’s not a difficult hole
Anymore yeah for sure and I don’t I don’t know I mean even I I would think that just make that whole 200 yards or 190 and keep everything the same would would probably solve that problem um it doesn’t have to be 230 or whatever I
Mean I I was watching and and zotus hit one in there and everybody knows how good he hits it and it kind hits like this High draw in there and it bounces over the green and so list after him hits this like huge High spinny cut that
Like pitches one inch on the green and still goes over the back and I was just like how in the world like what are they supposed to do exactly exactly and it it seems to me like part of it is that the hole was designed for players
To take on the risk that the hole provides where you try to hit like a low draw where it lands well short right of the green comes on and takes the slope all the way down to the left but players are just like I’m not going to hit that
Shot because if I don’t hit that shot perfectly now I have an impossible bunker shot I’m making four at best I’ll just hit it over the green and try to chip on get up and down for my par so I think part of it is that players are just too smart now
Where what the architect had in mind doesn’t matter anymore right it used to be like people would just play the hole the way the the architect of the of the golf course intended and now they’re like no I’m just doing what’s best for the score and that leaves some holes
Like this where it just doesn’t make a whole lot of sense anymore and you see that with people hitting it down other Fairways and stuff like that I mean that’s exactly to the point of like yeah everybody now is GNA look at a golf course and decide
What um what’s gives them the best chance to to shoot low numbers and I’ll even go as far as like to see that in my home golf course now we play I play Q school there 15 years ago way before I ever thought I would live up here and
There’s a hole that we number 12 at our course that now I look at it and I just try to hit it over the corner and if I’m in a bunker or whatever you know I’ve got 80 yards whereas when we went to Q School everybody just hit three wood out
To the right and then had seven iron into the green and nobody does that anymore it’s just not a so to your point yeah I think everybody’s just kind of over the we’re going to do what we’re supposed to we’re just going to do whatever gives us the
Best opportunity to win and when you’re competing for $4 million that’s the right choice to make did you have any idea they showed that check for $4 million and I was like oh my God yes that was the effect of adding a cut because they’re they’re all the same
Person so if you have a little bit less to hand out to the bottom of the field you have a little bit more at hand out to the top so I don’t know maybe we’ll see more Cuts just because guys are like you know what that $4 million check
Looks a lot better than 3.6 yeah no doubt I mean there’s just something yeah I mean not the 3.6 million still a lot of money but um unfortunately we we have to talk some about tiger and what a disappointing week it was I think considering the fact that he had to
Withdraw in the middle of a round it’s probably best case scenario that it turned out it was from illness and dehydration rather than you know a reinjury like my first thought was I had seen him uh he talked about like having back spasms at the end of his first round
Which by the way for anyone who isn’t familiar with how backs spasms can originate dehydration is like number one on the list right like my my dad gets back spasms all the time when he’s driving and he used to like pull over and get a lacrosse ball out and start
Massaging it away it’s just like no just drink a Gatorade or a water and doesn’t get them anymore dehydration gives back spasms so it’s not at all surprising to then see he actually had to withdraw from dehydration day two maybe tiger needs a little bit of a lesson on on how
Hydration can relate to all of his injuries but um I I I would so this is my my point to that is like I heard all that are we naive enough to think that one of the most athletic golfers to ever play the game doesn’t drink enough water
Or doesn’t I mean like at what point is that hey this is my easiest excuse out of here when we don’t really know the root problem of cuz I I was actually pretty impressed by the way he struck the golf ball I thought he was um he looked like
He could play or be in form I just have a hard time believing that you’re going to tell me that one of the best athletes in the world who’s making a return to the game to get ready for Augusta it’s just all of a sudden going to be
Dehydrated I mean he knows how to take care of his body so I agree and I think this is a fair question but I also think it’s important to point out that when you haven’t played under that type of stress in a long time because we you
Know we talk about all the time about like how different it is to be in a competitive setting in a tournament setting versus just practicing and it’s not just more difficult to actually perform well but it’s also more difficult on your body like I I have
This this it’s called a whoop a lot of players wear like it’s the thing that Justin Thomas wears it measures cardiovascular strain I was amazed when I first got this how much higher The Strain is in a tournament round even if a tournament round in a cart is like walking 36 holes of
Just regular no tournament golf it’s it’s unbelievable how much more of an impact it has on your body just dealing with the mental aspect of it while you’re also dealing with the physical aspect of it so the other thing I’d say about dehydration is it’s one of those
Things that it kind of sneaks up at you at times where you don’t necessarily realize you’re dehydrated until you are and then once you are it’s like infinitely more difficult to get UND dehydrated to get rehydrated than it would be to just maintain hydration ahead of time time so it’s it’s not
Quite as simple as he’s an only athlete he should know how to hydrate I mean I just he’s played millions of golf tournament or tournament rounds and just the I don’t know I just felt I still feel like and and that there’s an underlying issue here that that maybe we don’t know about
And I don’t know what that is I just don’t feel like it that was the end all be all hey I’m dehydrated I’m just going to WD like and that made just me being a skeptic I don’t know um I think we get an answer to this
Because because the next question I was going to ask is when do we see him next like it sounded like his original plan was probably to play The Players he talked about how the schedule sets up perfectly to play basically once a month where the best events are kind of a
Month apart from one another so if we don’t see him a month from now at any point in time if like the next time we see him is at the Masters then I’d be more inclined to agree agree with you if it was just dehydration then I see no
Reason why we wouldn’t see him uh you know play the schedule that he kind of hinted at playing in which case I I think it would be like all systems go it’s it really would be a good sign if especially if he commits soon to the players or something like
That yeah uh I mean I don’t disagree and like I said I I don’t know for sure this isn’t like something that I have like any kind of info on I just I I kind of give the you know I’m I’m going to be more of a Critic to the
Best of the best than I am going to be if you know if somebody like me goes out and is dehydrated has back you know what I mean like I’m not exactly a finely tuned Athlete on the brink of greatness so like uh and so I I don’t know the
Answer uh and then did you get involved in all the Jordan spe debate about the the signin scorecard and do you have thoughts on that yeah I I do I think people probably don’t want to hear this but I think it’s 100% % necessary that players keep each other’s scores
And I would want no part of for example imagine if you were in a group with Patrick Reed you’re not in charge of a score some volunteer is how worried are you that the volunteer somehow gets tricked into putting a four down on a hole that Reed
Made five and at the end of the round like you have to spend the entire round babysitting the volunteer keeping track of his score that that’s just not something that I want to be a part of well what’s funny is we’re going to end up in the same place but get there a
Different way right that’s just kind of the way we usually do it but um it’s your job you I mean Hideki mat just made $4 million to win a golf tournament it’s your job to write down a score and make sure that your score and their score is correct like it’s not
We’re not asking you to you know mid round run a marathon you know I mean it’s literally writing down a score that you get paid a lot of money to do yeah so it just doesn’t seem like like and this is coming you know I think most
People that argue oh it’s you know we shouldn’t do this with the times now we have too much technology blah blah blah they all want to complain about shot tracker none of them have ever played a professional golf tournament I I mean like as far as me when I write down
Scores if I told you there wasn’t times that I went to the scoring tent and my scorecard was completely blank I’d be lying but it takes 10 seconds to go back and rethink about every and what you made and what somebody else made so I I
Try not to do obviously you know you try to I at least try to write them down every three holes or if I have a caddy have the cadd just write them down or or whatever I mean there’s so many options right we we even heard I I forget who
Mentioned it but someone told the story of where spe was uh on on like the 17th t- boox or something where there was a weight on a par three some other tournament and he had to write down all 16 scores stores previously cuz he hadn’t written the thing down yet during
That day so yeah like if you put yourself behind the eightball like that you’re much more likely to make a mistake but the the other argument that I saw on Twitter that I thought was a really good one I I wish I remembered uh who said this because I’d love to give
Them credit for it again it’s something that I hadn’t even thought of but like there’s also an element of I want to make sure that my score is right when I’m playing in a tournament and the volunteers so for anyone who isn’t like fully aware of this the reason why the
Broadcast always knows what a player is at it’s because they’re getting it from the tours website which is all done through the shotlink system volunteer scores with each group and volunteer shotlink you know volunteers so mistakes are made and they’re made quite often where usually they’re fixed because a
Volunteer will go up to you know speed’s caddy and say hey what did Jordan have that last toll I was kind of unaware so you’re G to get that sort of thing anyway and the other aspect of that is like how many times have you been following one of your players during an
Event and they finish the round especially if it’s at a course where you know the shot link has been pretty unreliable to that point or maybe they don’t even have shotlink on that golf course and the the round finishes and all a sudden the score changes it’s like
What the hell it’s because the players reported that on the fourth hole they had an extra stroke that for the next three hours nobody else knew about so you need that there it has to be the players responsibility I know people don’t want that to be the case but it’s
Just true and and then this the same people it drives me nuts is the same people will be like I can’t believe they can’t get shot link right look the ball goes backwards here and they they somehow make a hole in one on a par four
And now you want to give them more responsibility of keeping the player score and making that official like come on man like and then and then they’re like well you could just go back and watch video you know how many hours of coverage you’d have to go back and watch
Watch video to see every single player and what they I mean it’s just an absolutely ridiculous it I something that doesn’t need to be changed also can you imagine like people complain all the time rightfully so myself included about how bad the coverage is in terms of not showing enough golfers not showing
Enough shots and like yes theoretically they could put a camera on every hole but guys are going to be way out of position where the camera can’t see them they can’t know like if if Patrick Reed is off the board behind some trees the camera can’t see him and he takes two
Shots to get out of that spot back to the Fairway you think he’s writing down both you think a volunteers catching that it’s both not a chance yeah I I mean it it’s just I don’t know well I hope they don’t do anything but you know
You know how the PJ tour works right they don’t listen to the things they need to listen to and they’re going to probably change something for something as idiotic as this so the the only other question I have here is how many of the people that were
Complaining about this for spe how many of them were only as outraged as they were and and asking for a change because they either had a bet on him or they had him on DraftKings or there their favorite player what do you think there oh yeah for sure everybody I mean I had
A I had a buddy text me he’s like I can’t believe speed blah like mad what are you doing and he’s like yeah I had a top 10 BET on speed and I was like yeah there you go so yeah it’s it’s funny how like opinions
Now are just based on what did you bet what did you want the outcome to be that’s what you think the rule should be going forward and not actually evaluating what the rule is yeah no doubt so it’s yeah we’ll see what uh hopefully they don’t do anything and
They just spend their time you know making other things better but before we get to the really good stories in zalot Taurus and Hideki I want to ask KL we’ve seen stats now going around basically all of Twitter all the internet about just how much better he’s been in round
One than in rounds two through four and just how much worse he’s been in round four than in any other round of the Season how much of that do you think is just the randomness of golf in a small sample vers there’s something he’s struggling with mentally when it comes
To trying to close the door after these hot starts well we talk about this a lot right about Winners win they have to know how to win and he just to me like he wins because he’s just that good not because he has any Killer Instinct so if he had that he
Just doesn’t have a Killer Instinct of hey I’m gonna go shoot a low number and step on their throat and and I’m not saying he’s not trying or if he’s trying too hard or or whatever the answer is there it’s just the fact of the matter is you can
Just for Mia you just don’t feel like he has it you don’t you don’t look at him and say all right this guy you know is going to come come for somebody else’s throat you just don’t see that in anything he does is mannerisms is just the way he carries
Himself it’s an interesting point because if you remember back in like 2021 in 2022 the Nar The Narrative around him was when he gets in contention he’s just going to make the putt to win it like there’s just there’s no question when he has a 15-footer that
He needs to make to help him win the golf tournament whether it’s on 18 12 whatever he’s going to make it some of our perceptions just are about what has happened recently now he’s not getting it done and the perception is that he doesn’t have what it takes to win I I
Think I’m with you in what you said initially there which is like he wins because he’s really good and because he’s really good he’s probably going to win again in the future and have no problem closing the door and all of this noise like the fact that he was converting almost every single
Opportunity in 21 and 22 and now he’s not converting them that’s just the noise around it he’s just a good player he’s going to win sometimes he does by the way have a lower chance to win in our models and our simulations on a week toe basis than his talent would suggest
But that’s because he’s one of the more consistent players event to event so it’s it’s just hard for him to reach the ceiling because of his low volatility nature that is sometimes required to win especially in these Signature Events and what’s impressive to me about him is
That like a couple weeks ago I think it Pebble or Pebble or I don’t he was like hitting snap Hooks and hitting terrible iron shots and just had no control of his game and you know for most even most like professionals most guys on tour it
Usually takes a couple of weeks you know to figure all that out he seemed to just figure it out right away and get back to you know being in contention which is really really impressive yeah I think the other thing is that you know you have to look at
When when a player has a really hot start to a tournament why did they start really hot hot and in this one it was a lot because he was just draining putt after Putt and long putt that’s a lot harder to sustain throughout an entire event and actually it brings us right to
Zalot torus because zalot torus also had one of those starts where his Thursday round was a great round but it was only great because he made like I think it was on holes five through seven something like that he made three consecutive and may have even been holes
Four through seven where he made four consecutive of either putts from 25 plus feet or chips off the green at like 35t it was just an unbelievable stretch so he gets off to this incredible start because he makes four more bombs than you would expect him to make and then in
Round two he has the hole in one and so through two rounds it’s like he doesn’t Des deserve to be anywhere near uh the position that he actually was on the leaderboard to his credit he then played outstanding golf throughout the weekend especially on Sunday so that was really
Great to see from zalot Tores bouncing back from this industry injury it seems like he’s just getting better and better every event it’s funny because you you got to the same point that I was going to make what what was really impressive is the weekend because like you said
What it looked he kind of faked it for two rounds and then the last round it was no longer just faking it like he hit some incredible golf shots and I think that the harder the golf course the more especially the more firm you make the
Greens the better he’s going to be and I was pretty impressed with yeah he made a lot of putts but I was impressed with his putting in general like it didn’t look yippy it did it looked like the putter was kind of just swinging a little bit more free
Um man if that’s if that’s a sign of things to come uh he’s he’s winning a major this year in my opinion I don’t know if you saw many of his putts but one of the things that I noticed about it was like every single short putt came
Off the toe still but it wasn’t the like the jagged takeaway that he used to have with the with the shorter Putter and I almost think that where he was hitting it on the putter yes it was on the toe but it almost seemed to me like it was number
One more consistent in terms of where on the toe he was hitting it like it’s always there it’s not oh he hit it on The Sweet Spot this time and now he missed out on the toe it’s almost like he’s practicing and purposely hitting it there because he just knows look that’s
Going to be my Miss why don’t I just hit it there always and that way I can you know predict how it’s going to come off the face um have you ever us have you ever messed around with one of those Putters have you ever used one the lab putter I
Have not and I can’t imagine myself doing so so I actually went got fitted for one um they’re actually really good uh if you can get over the look of it like it definitely the look is a little bit different it makes you lean the handle
Which is why it doesn’t work out for me because I’m more neutral but you have to lean the handle a little bit um the technology is awesome like it really like and I think that’s why that putter is so good for him because the tow hit
Is very stable in that putter so that’s kind of the design right is the the face doesn’t doesn’t turn or Flex so to speak with the with the m hits so um I’m gonna guess that was probably Josh Gregor’s doing um which would make sense I mean
Pretty sure that’s who he works with the short game with here in Dallas so he’s one of the best in the business uh but yeah it it I like it I I mean if he his speed was good his ball was you hear us talk a lot about your ball go if you’re
Putting really good your ball’s always going in the hole at the same speed whether it’s an uphill downhill doesn’t matter um and I was really impressed by that I happen to have a highlighter and a golfball here with me just just by chance that’s that’s life of a golfer so
I I think this this concept of the stable toe is a really interesting one and probably one that we should elaborate on so let’s do a little bit of a demonstration here most Putters if you hit it on the toe’s let’s make sure this is in the screen what happens to the
Putter face is it’s going to open like this a little bit and now as it pushes it’s pushing the ball offline a stable toe means when you make contact here the putter stays the ball still goes on line so that when when Justin’s talking about how this putter is more stable around
The toe that’s what that means and that’s why when you saw the roll of the ball off of zot Taurus’s putter it looked so much better this week even though he was consistently hitting it off the toe yeah it was good um and he’s obviously working on it I I
Was worried about the back problems maybe not allowing him to practice his putting as much as he would like but he’s done a really good job with his golf swing he’s done a really good job of of making sure that that back doesn’t hinder his career they also made that
Point on the broadcast and I think that’s another reason why it it’s really helped him to go to this putter because when you have the longer putter you’re in a more upright position which is a lot easier on your back which makes it easier to practice um I think it wasner
Too by the way who was talking about Sheffer and saying look when he’s chipping he’s in a more upright position than he is putting he’s obviously in a more upright position and his ball striking one fix for him could be maybe not going to the super long putter but
Just either adjusting his posture maybe it’s you know adding two inches to the putter something to get him in a more similar posture to the way he chips and hits his his uh his longer game clubs just would would potentially help him I think uh yet another example of kizner
Just being a really really refreshing voice in broadcast um I don’t know I mean I even went I got a I used to put with a 32inch butter and I’m up to a 34 inch putter now probably for the same reason I can’t practice like I used to be able to stand
Out there for hours upon hours so yeah well nor do we have the desire to that’s that’s a different not not our career that we’re playing for yeah you’re not going to see me grinding six hours a day on the on the practice screens and things like that yeah no doubt
Um yeah and and obviously filled with emotion for zot torus and the interview I mean that’s got to be a really hard interview we talked a little bit I don’t think anybody really knows what happened or or any anything more elaborate except for that he lost the family
Member and that and sometimes you know we used we always laugh Beware of the injured golfer right because their mind’s not on the golf um so I you know that probably had something you know to do with how he played he probably wasn’t really worried about how
Golf um he was more worried about you know just taking care of himself and his family and stuff like that so it’s definitely unfortunate I’m GNA you know he gets to go home for a week and and hopefully you know figure out everything and it’s just a tough it’s a tough
Situation yeah it’s it’s interesting one too because you have this like perfect jti position of wanting to analyze how he played you know where his game’s at for where it’s going to go forward with also just like acknowledging what an incredible story this was how uh how
Difficult it must have been for him to focus in because like on the one hand yeah it can help you to have your mind distracted and to not be overanalyzing every shot that you hit but then you also get into these preter situations where you have to get your focus all the
Way dialed into what you’re doing uh it it seemed like he was able to really use this this tragedy in his family to not necessarily like help him Focus but he he talked about how quote like she was with him all week and so uh that was
That was just really cool to see from him from a golf perspective he’s obviously playing really well now we’re we’re seeing improvements with the putter we’re also seeing by the way a a pretty big improvement over the last three events at least around the green which you know that’s like putting that’s something
That historically he has struggled with at times and that has like those struggles haven’t been as well known and as discussed as his putting was because it doesn’t look as ugly when he chips poorly as it has historically when he putts poorly perhaps the thing to me
That is most interesting is that his distance Advantage is pretty much gone he actually lost four yards to this Genesis field gained zero at the farmers and only gained two yards per round at the American Express you know that that week obviously one of the rounds had no
Shot link but um you know historically he’s been someone who gains around 10 to 15 yards uh against the average field so this is a pretty interesting development how important do you think it’ll be for him to get that distance back come major time or can he just compete at this
Distance as long as the putting and the short game continues to show this kind of improvement yeah I mean obviously I think he’s a rare case where he hits his mid and long iron so good that he’s not for a lot of people you need the short
Well everybody the shorter the club the more birdies are going to make but he has the ability to hit shots that a lot of other people can’t with mid and long irons and I I think for him it’s just going to come down to putting I mean
He’s and the harder the golf course it’s better it’s crazy that we’re calling that a hard golf course and it still took 19 under to win like like oh this golf course is hard let’s go shoot 20 under um but I I I can definitely see places
Like this is a good golf course for him and I think the the firmer you get the greens the better it’s for him too so I I think you make a phenomenal point on the the mid irons there in the last two years only Scotty sheffler has
Gained more Strokes from 150 to 200 per shot uh Scotty’s at 072 zator is 071 morawa is third at 057 so you get like a a an indication there of just how he how Elite he is from that range so I’m with you I think that he can probably survive a a distance
Shortage if you will uh more so than the average player would but I also think that we’re still pretty early in his recovery maybe speed is the last thing that comes back for him but there’s absolutely a chance that comes back and if it does you know that that could mean
Some really phenomenal things where if the speed is there and he’s a little bit improved on and around the greens like that’s that’s the type of thing that now you expect to see him at the top of the leaderboards and Majors for sure and so while we’re talking about Elite I think
We just need to go right into the performance we saw on Sunday with with Hideki and how impressive it really was it was unbelievable it was unbelievable T green was phenomenal to see him make putt I I said during Sunday like I I think he was going up the 18th hole or
Something like that it’s one of the best rounds of golf that’s ever been played I don’t know if you think it was that good or where you stand there but I was just blown away the whole time yeah I I mean not that the Genesis isn’t a big golf
Tournament but it’s not as popular as maybe you know some of the others so so some people probably don’t view it that way so if you take away like you know you’re huge rounds and Majors you’re really good rounds and Majors um they get might get a little
More attention but I think this yesterday was just incredible complete control of your golf ball I mean missed it in the spots he was supposed to miss it when he did he chips it unbelievable and just hitting really good shot after really good shot yeah I I
Just the the crazy thing too is I don’t know if you heard him after the round but during his interview he said It felt to him like he shot three over which anyone who knows Hideki knows that like one of the most fun things about watching him is you’re almost guaranteed
To get an instance of he you know on a t-shot he finishes with a one-hand finish and it’s striped down the middle or in a par three he finishes with a oneand finish the ball ends up eight feet from the pin pin high it’s just
What he does it’s like he when he’s on I I I think when he’s on he expects so much from his game that he expects Perfection on every single shot every single swing and so when you get a full round like this where he says like throughout the entire round it felt like
He was so much worse than his actual score to me that says he knows that his game is just in a phenomenal place right now and he’s I mean he definitely exaggerates right a little bit I mean that’s where that a lot of that comes
From so I’m sure he knew he didn’t shoot 75 he may I think sometimes we talk about this with Elite golfers right that how comfortable can you be being uncomfortable and when you get close to a leaderboard and you have or you have a really low round go or in this case both
Like how comfortable are you in that situation because you are going to be uncomfortable no matter what there is going to be adrenaline you are going to feel something it’s just how are you wired can you’re you know can you handle that spot and I think where there’s some
Truth in what he was saying about you know feeling like he didn’t play anywhere near that well that he didn’t D drive the ball super well he only gained point two strokes in that final two round or in that final round uh he gained a little under two and a half
With approach but 95% of that came on 15 and 16 where he hit the ball inside of a foot so for the most part he was just dominant around the greens including a chip in maybe even two chip-ins can’t quite remember but just every single time that he had a difficult shot around
The green he hadit a phenomenal one uh he also putted really well gaining almost two and a half Strokes putting in this final round one of the more complete performances and I think it also gets to this idea that like Hideki can dominate a golf course with his
Short game like almost nobody else has been able to in the history of golf you think about his his win at the Masters he was phenomenal around the greens just this like perfect mix of creativity and Artistry with flawless mechanics you just don’t see that a whole lot inlf
Hideki has that around the greens and even in this event he gained what was the actual number let me let me look this up again literally 1.6 Strokes per round around the green most players don’t even have a chance to gain that much in a single round let alone a
Single event per round like that’s just it’s unbelievably good short game action well it it just seems like every time I would like pull up the PJ tour app and click on his name Hideki matama from off the green chip in like I mean it just
Was like I mean over and over and over just he chipped it was he chipped in on two maybe uh Saturday I think so like you can on on data golf you can go pretty much round by round and shot by shot within each round and yeah he had
Chip-ins and that’s certainly part of why he was able to gain so much per round but the other reason is that he just wasn’t making mistakes around the green like every single chance he had to gain Strokes around the green he did so just unbelievable consistency with the
Chipping never losing Strokes you you can’t gain 1.6 purely from the luck of chipping in you also have to like the basically basically the ones that didn’t go in still had a chance to go in because he was just that damn good around the greens I think it gets to the
Point where sometimes when a player chips in a few times it is pure luck in this instance I think he was chipping in because every single chip was scaring the hole and someone just bound the fall yeah and I think that you’re gonna see guys like him play really good on
Courses like this where every par five is kind of reachable but it’s kind of hard to hit it on the surface because of the slopey greens and stuff so you have to chip it really good right um and so that’s where uh you know then you add
Throw in the mix number 10 where they’re everybody I would love to see the stats but did does anybody lay up there anymore uh Justin Thomas does not not every round I don’t think but he does some of the time certain penss there’s just not many I think pretty much every
Well the way Justin Thomas played I probably wouldn’t pay too much attention to what he was doing right um yeah just when everybody everybody thought he was back and then Justin Thomas and chock sure didn’t work out very good um I was and I is that a is
That the tiger effect like he wants to beat tiger so bad that he just struggles yeah it’s a it’s a really interesting question and it it is one I want to dive into um but before we do I just want to point out uh matsi Yama
Played number 10 two under this week and he did so by gaining point six Strokes uh with his Chip Shot on 10 on the first round and three the 10th in the fourth round like he did exactly what you would expect he he performed really well on
That hole because he set himself up to gain Strokes with your short game and he did exactly that yeah and so and he knows uh he doesn’t I think it allows him to when he’s playing really good it allows him to just be more aggressive cuz he’s not worried about where his
Ball ends up he’s pretty positive that he can get it up and down from anywhere yeah w- which takes pressure off of the the first shot too right like if you don’t feel like you have to hit it into the perfect spot where you can just putt
From off the green if you can hit it into that back bunker if you can hit it through into that rough if you can hit it short or even a little bit left and have you know a full pitch shot instead of just a little chip and run or a putt
Just gives you all the freedom in the world to make a good swing yeah and not just that but he uses it as a weapon where he’s got to you know he feels like if he does miss the green he can chip it
In so he’s not like oh if I hit it here I’m not only is he not worried about making a bogey he’s worried he thinks that he could make it so we’re going to do something fun here on this show obviously the Mexico open not the biggest event not the one that people
Are going to Care the most about so we’re have some fun here we’re going to draft our top 10 of the the group of players that when they’re on you take their game over anybody else in the world and obviously hideki’s performance this week suggests he probably probably
Will be here so Justin I’ll give you the first pick Let’s each pick three to five guys and uh and just see what kind of a list we end up with here so the big big deal for me here is the most upside right it’s not just so like the to me
The easiest pick here would be like a sheffler um I think that I personally would rather take as as far as pure upside I think I I prefer Rory over sheffler just for the fact that he doesn’t have the same putting and he can he can hit every shot chef
Foran and when his a I I just have a hard time believing that anybody’s aame is better than Rory’s yeah I think I’m in agreement he’d be my first pick as well and and the reason being is that he can hit shots that nobody else in the world can
Hit like I I remember I was at I was at Augusta last year for the practice round and on number 11 he had probably 210 to the green he’s behind one of the those trees he had to hit an iron twice as high as any golf ball that
I have ever hit and he did it perfectly to like four feet nobody else can do that no one else can lift a long iron that quickly that high into the air with spin with control it was probably also had to be like a 10 yard draw something
Like that he he just hits shots that nobody else in the world can hit and because of that I think to your point like his ceiling is just at a level that no one else can reach and you saw like he was struggling this week not playing
Very good and then he gets to that par five where like a lot of people are I don’t know I mean they’re just kind of hit it at the left side of the green or whatever that pins front right and he just hits this like five iron from 230
Through the Moon that lands a foot and doesn’t go anywhere like it’s those are the shots that I think are the most amazing like after a 348 yard drive by the way just no problem Mike on another planet yeah so that that I think he would be my one um so that
Leaves you with the second who would you go with next I am gonna go Scotty here and I think to to this conversation it’s like we’re talking about when they’re on so we’re talking about when he’s actually making some putts and we know how much he can separate with his ball
Striking he’s been the best ball striker in the world for two years he’s putting up Tiger Woods like numbers with the ball striking all he needs to do is make some putts well when he’s on he’s making putts uh I I think we saw a glimpse of
It um at the at the WM open when all of a sudden he was making like everything from 8 to 20 feet and it’s like holy cow he just went from you know 35th to first in the first hour that they were on television six so when when he’s doing
That it’s it’s uh it’s almost unlike anybody else and so he’s going to be my first pick there yeah and I I’m definitely in agreement I think like I think your best point there is he’s just head and shoulders better than everybody T um and it’s not it continues to show
There’s there’s no faking what he’s doing I guess is the best way to put it who’s your who’s your next pick I think I know who it is but I mean it’s he doesn’t play on the PGA tour if that helps um I mean it’s it’s pretty simple
I I I think that you’re these three are the are the top three players in the world I think you could make an argument to put him in any order but Rah is is got to go here um I mean there’s there’s an argument for rah’s aame being as good as as uh
Rory and chefer when going um I’m surprised I I’m really really interested to see how he plays in the majors this year um he hasn’t been as dominant as I thought he would be and I don’t know if they’re just getting used to the scenery over there and just the difference but he
Uh he’s special I mean when he gets going and and and weal we just had the conversation about that Killer Instinct and I I believe that that might be what makes him at times even better than Roy and Scotty yeah yeah I I I love this
Call he I I gave him some real thought at at number two um he’s he’s got perhaps the most complete game of the top three which I think also helps because you know to reach to reach like the ceiling performance of being quote unquote on there are multiple ways you can do it
You can do it like Scotty does sometimes where he just gets so unconscious with the irons that he’s never gonna have to chip the ball and you know every every hole is a 10 to 15 foot birdie putt but you can also do it by gaining everywhere
And you know that could mean that you have license to go after every pin because you know that if you miss the green even if you’re shortsighted you’re going to be able to chip it to six feet and make the putt it it means that on par fives you don’t have to necessarily
Hit the the most aggressive second shot you can just put yourself in position for an easy up and down birdie uh I I think there are few golfers who can win a golf tournament with by dominating in any specific category and Rah is somebody who can do that for sure he can
Make up make up for his bad you know of one facet with another facet in any given day so um I think now is where the conversation starts I think there’s so many directions um you know I think there’s three or four guys that would be
The chalk here right if you asked just about anybody yeah we haven’t discussed this so I’m not sure what direction you’re going and if if you’re going to go that way or not so I’m gonna go in an a pretty interesting Direction here I’m actually going to Justin Thomas and for
For anyone who’s been following following the last couple weeks in DFS I’ve called him the worst play on the Slate in each of the last two weeks obviously that has a lot to do with ownership it has to do with our new gpp scores uh if anyone hasn’t read the
Ownership review that I put out yesterday it’s a free article go check that out if you were even a little bit inclined to play Justin Thomas this week that article is for you um but what I will say for JT and specifically when it comes to this conversation is JT can
Reach a point where like Hideki he can absolutely dominate a golf course with his short game and and so when you get onto these really difficult golf courses major championships think of the PGA Championship that he won think of the the round at Saw Grass a couple years
Ago where it was so windy that you know they they ended up taking like a day off or something like that and there was the clear wave Advantage JT was the only big name to survive and contend from the wrong wave and part of that is because
He can shape the ball in in any way that he wants it was actually tiger who once told him you don’t have enough shots to contend and so what did he do he developed all of the shots and now he’s willing to use them more than most typically golfers uh particularly the
Best in the world have a shot shape that that they like to play and they will just play it at nauseum and honestly I think that’s probably the better way to do it for consistent success but when JT is on uh particularly in those extremely difficult uh conditions he gets into
This Zone where like every hole for him is a birdie chance and everybody else is just struggling to make pars that kind of separation from the field is is pretty unique and it’s why I’m giving him the nod here because I don’t think anybody else really separates in one
Specific way like he does in this way on difficult courses uh that’s interesting I I that’s not where I would have gone there I definitely like heat when he’s playing good he’s definitely an elite player um and he it seems like he’s turned it around after I mean obviously
I’m sure he’s disappointed with the way he played this week um you know I’m not sure like I I was saying earlier the tiger effect or whatever you want to call it yeah um I think that I kind of I’m going to go a little bit off the-
Wall here too but for for a little bit different reason I I would go Tony F now here and the reason and this is going to be because of the Scotty Sheffer effect right so everybody talks about how bad Scotty putts it and how good he hits it well this last week
Feno hit it better and puted worse so I mean like if you if you thought that was Pro I didn’t think it was possible but that’s kind of kind of how he’s been lately right so I I I I think that Tony fena and and this is just talking about pure upside right
We’re not talking about necessarily week in and week out just pure upside he can hit those towering long iron shots that we talk to in high leverage situations he can he can do the things that check the box and you know the argument with for shefflers like when he gets to
Making those eight to 15 Footers um he’s a dominant player it’s such a well-timed argument too because he won the Mexico open last year gaining 4.3 true Strokes per round one of those like you it’s very rare to see somebody gain over four in an event major championships are won with fewer than
Four strokes gained uh per round so without question has that massive ceiling it’s also just a perfectly timed argument because in his last three rounds or his last three events he’s gained 2.4 1.9 and 1.2 Strokes per round with the approach he’s gaining over a stroke per round off the T and he’s
Losing about a stroke per round putting so 100% with you there the the place where he falls so far short of Scotty is that he doesn’t have the dominant short game that Scotty has which is why you know Scotty is is the guy te to Green that is just head and shoulders above
Everybody else because he’s just as good with his short game as he is off the team with the irons uh uh around the green it’s like always always the the aspect of golf that I think people Overlook the most and it’s especially true of Scotty sheffler right now where
Everyone knows how good he’s hitting it and everyone even mentions you know he’s dominant with his irons he’s dominant off the tea he’s dominant te to green and they never say he’s also dominant with his short game yeah uh but I I like that call I’m
Also going to go a little bit contrarian with my next one anyone who knows uh me knows how big of a fan I am of this guy so this one at this point is a little bit of a hypothetical pick Cameron young unbelievable off the te he gets
Super streaky at times with the irons where he can completely dominate a field with the irons like he did at the Genesis by the way gained 1.3 per round he was atrocious Around The Greens at the Genesis uh we haven’t seen the Fantastic ball striking week also
Coincide with a putting Spike or a short game Spike and that’s why he hasn’t won but eventually it’s going to happen and it’s going to be pretty glorious and I I just think his ability to consistently dominate off the te is at a level where very very few players can even match him
Off the tea it’s pretty much Cameron young Scotty Sheffer John ROM Rory mroy uh and now maybe lud VI Goldberg as well in terms of just who is the best driver in the world and they’re in a teer their own like nobody else is is close to them
And uh I think we we will also see by the way or I should say we have also seen that he’s one of those guys like even in major championships he’s been able to ride that ball strike and particularly his driving on difficult courses to contend and he’s done that
Without making the putts that he needs to make so once he gets that fixed in one specific week it’s going to be quite the ceiling performance yeah and I think he has that in him too um you know he he’s I would say he’s fairly new to the
Scene right he’s not a Roy maoy that’s been around forever or some of these other guys like he’s he’s new to that Elite scene so when he figures it all out um he’s got nothing but good things coming I uh I’ve got one more um you
Know there’s a lot of guys that I could put in this conversation right here that I’m sure you’ll touch on one you just said with o Berg I think he he deservedly is in this conversation Hideki I think s you know the top of Sam Burns deserves a spot in this
Conversation um but I think that right here if we’re just going to talk about Elite I’m going to I would take Dustin Johnson um I think that people forget how dominant he really was and how dominant he can be um so I I wouldn’t be surprised it looks
Like his problem is well known he just doesn’t take it serious anymore I mean he’s just an incredible athlete that can will go play really good golf when he was practicing and in his prime and if he would ever do that again I think he has Elite
Talent I was wondering if you were going to go here because honestly I think there’s an argument to be made that he belongs at number four on this list and if if we were drafting this a year or two ago there’s a chance that he’d be
Number one he his his best in 21 or 22 it’s just unbelievable in 2021 when he won the Masters this was the November Masters he gained 5.4 true Strokes per round remember a minute ago when I said it’s rare that a guy gains over four in a round he gained
5.4 per round unbelievable ceiling uh we haven’t seen it in over a year so I don’t know if it’s still there but I gotta think that it is so I like this pick a lot I’m also going to go to live here and say Cameron Smith and I’m
Actually gonna bring Cameron Smith and Hideki matama together because the thing that they both do incredibly well is their short game I I think the the three guys on tour who can dominate a golf tournament with their short game alone are Cameron Smith actually not on tour
But in in the world of golf Cameron Smith Hideki matama Justin Thomas are the only three who can win a golf tournament purely because their short game is what separates them that week and with with both matsi Yama and Cameron Smith they also have the capability
Of getting hot with their irons you know everyone thinks of matama as this phenomenal ball Striker and yet he is a great ball Striker but the numers show Far and Away his strength is around the green just like cam Smith but when he’s on the irons can be great just like they
Can be for kemp Smith both struggle to gain off the te and when they struggle it’s often because they’re struggling with accuracy off the T of course with Cam Smith the other element there is he can win a golf tournament with the putter like he did uh at the Open
Championship matama doesn’t win as many golf tournaments with the putter but we saw yesterday or on Sunday that he is capable of getting super hot for a single round and having that putter really Shine for us a week so uh I’m gonna put both of them together I think
Cameron Smith probably deserves to be ahead of matama on the list but man hideki’s hideki’s best is is poetry as well so he’s got to be on this list uh yeah for sure and once again you know we’re speaking of upside I think when cam Smith I I really like Cam and he’s
Another one that I just I just can’t figure out where he’s at right now is he just not taking it as serious is he gonna be ready for Augusta like I he what he did that’s so incredible is he learned to hit his irons way higher and
So therefore that’s why he got to comp where he was competing at such stages where you had to hit it higher and and and spin the ball to get to stop combine that with the best short game in the in the world you’re you know you’re
Going to be pretty dominant so he um I I hope he I’m really excited I think what we’ve gained out of all this live stuff is we get these four events where we get to see them come to come together um these these Majors need to figure it out
And not you know the World Golf Ranking stuff’s a joke and and I I there’s there needs to be a way to make sure that we get all the the best players there you know I’d hate to see one of these guys that deserve to play Augusta not get
There because of you know some rules yeah I think uh you mentioned like not knowing where Cam Smith is with his game right now I think one encouraging thing was he actually talked at the end of last season about the fact that he he underestimated what it took to prepare
For majors and and because of his move to live like he went into the Masters just totally unprepared and and so I like hearing the fact that he recognized es that about his season a year ago we also saw him finish fourth in the US Open ninth in the PGA Championship so
Like as the season progressed it was also like you saw number one he was just playing more because Liv started up again but there was also an element of okay I was totally unprepared for the Masters what can I do to prepare myself for the PGA Championship in the US Open
The final two majors of the season so I like his chances starting out this year and he’s actually somebody that I I’ve toyed with um for a future bet on the master se’s available at 22 to1 I do like that number I don’t think it’s a
Good enough number to fire a future on but as we get closer and closer to that week if he stays there can pretty much guarantee he’ll be a bat of mine and maybe we’ll even get lucky and he’ll go up to 25 30 to one something like that
So cam Smith definitely somebody that I like in the major season this year I didn’t like him last year yeah um and backstory he is an unbelievable human as well so it makes it easy to root for he uh there’s a guy that that I’m good friends
With that plays that played on the PGA tour and he they actually cam came over after the colonial a few years ago they were just having like a pool party he played with my two-year-old for well he he’s eight now so it’s probably six years ago he was either two or three uh
But he literally played with him for like three hours not like 10 minutes like three hours ran around the yard playing and you know I’m sure cam never is never doesn’t doesn’t even remember I mean I guess maybe if I brought it up but just the fact that he just was out
There as a young kid himself just playing on the PJ tour and just running around with this little kid and you know my son doesn’t know him from Adam no idea who he is but it’s just a really cool to see you know genuine good people not they’re not looking for a limelight
They’re not looking to anything they’re just being being good humans I I love that that’s so great to hear um the final guy I’ll mention is Patrick Klay and it kind of gets get to the fact that like if you look at the way he started some of the golf
Tournaments this season including Genesis like through two rounds he had played Flawless Golf and I think the the main reason why he belongs on this list is we talked about this a little bit with Rah talking about how one of the ways that you get the the highest
Ceiling is that you’re capable of separating from the field in any specific category in any given week if you look at the best players in the world and you look at which player has the best worst skill so so you’re just taking like you’re looking at Strokes
Gained per round and you’re looking at driving distance driving accuracy approach play around the green play and putting the greatest weakness for all the players the one with the greatest weakness is Patrick Klay he’s just so good in every aspect of the game and I think that that contributes to why when
He’s on it can be it can be really really special just because you don’t have to then have a ceiling performance in any one category right like you can you can dominate by being very good in five categories just as easily if not more easily that you
Can in being spectacular into two yeah and I for me I just I definitely overlook him I’m it’s I’m terrible about it I DFS betting it doesn’t matter he’s he’s just easy for me to not root for if that makes sense like I just don’t have
A desire like it just I don’t know what it is that he just doesn’t move the needle for me as far as entertainment that being said he’s an incredible player and he does a lot of things and he he kind of just reminds me of that guy that just goes out and does
His business and then he’s goes back and you don’t hear from you know he’s not like he’s not making headlines he just goes out and plays golf and then goes back and and takes care of of everything else there are two guys that we have
Left off the list so far I think one is a mistake and one that we need to to write to to correct and and get him on this list somewhere which is Victor havind uh if you just look at what he was doing down the stretch last season
Like he was one of the best players if not the single best player in the world at the end of the 2023 Seasons so I think 100% he needs to be on that list gained 4.8 Strokes per round at the BMW 4.9 the Tour Championship that’s one of
The most dominant two event stretches that I can recall ever seeing I’m sure tiger had bested that but outside of that like I’m not sure anyone has gone over four and a half two consecutive Events maybe DJ actually I would guess DJ did a few
Years ago um but he needs to be on that list the other guy shley yeah and I don’t think that that’s a mistake because I think what makes shafley Incredible is how consistently very good to great he is but never quite dominant yeah I mean and
You can make a case for more on the list too um he’s not playing very good right now but we’ve definitely we’ve definitely seen that dominance out of him um you know and that honestly that’s where I thought the chalk was after after we got done with the ROM you know
The top three I thought the chalk picks right there would have been morawa shaf Klay and and havin with havin probably the top of that list um I I just I I think that once again I I just see more going pure upside from a guy like Sam Burns
Over morawa I just feel like when you morawa might have it more often but Sam’s but Burns is best is better than morow yeah I agree so all right let’s before we before we wrap this up let’s try and turn this into an exact top 10
So I think we we agree Rory one Scotty two uh ROM three I’m thinking havin deserves that fourth spot what do you think I I I I I I think probably you’re probably right um man it’s just so hard to get behind a guy that can skull a bunker shot at at
Any given moment like he literally can just I mean he but when he’s on he’s not sculling the bunker shot but you know you get my point like you you just feel like it you feel like the short game stuff is a ticking Time Time Bomb even
When he’s when he’s playing his best yeah you know he he’s it reminds me of the old Hunter Mayhan when Hunter was just an elite dominant player but he could literally chunk a chip out of nowhere so um yeah I mean probably if he’s doing everything correctly and and
He’s on he’s not missing any greens anyway so you know he has the ability to hit every shot um I think know I think five for me would actually be Dustin Johnson I don’t disagree at all I think so the problem is how serious he is he I
Think I I think that that’s the only hold up with him is is how serious he’s taking everything and the reason why I would say that he’s five is because I think you could put those first four in their own tier and say the best from anybody else doesn’t touch them DJ’s the
Only one that could touch those guys so he belongs in that tier as well where havlin and DJ are kind of their own like second tier behind the big three but then I think there’s a big drop off and and I could go any direction any order
For the for the remaining guys I agree I think I think that it’s tier one and then the havin DJ tier two then you’ve got the shaf more kaer and then you have all these young I don’t even want to call them young guys all this this next
Group of you know call it 10 that we could rattle through and you and I are going to probably have a little bit of difference in opinion of who the you know of what order those 10 are but you know oberg matama Burns fenal you know they’re all gonna just
You could pile them in J Justin Thomas Jordan spe um you know you can just pile that group together and who’s best is better than others I don’t think that you really cam young sorry I don’t know how I forgot him out of that that that whole tier right there is just kind
Of I I would I I wouldn’t would you be surprised if we have this conversation let’s say after the last M or after the last major this year and and oberg’s not in that at least that hin DJ tier I I think both cam young and
Obber could be four on that list at that time yeah so I I lean I lean towards oberg there but over over cam young a little bit I think he’s more rounded player uh personally like just more well-rounded all the way around but um and and he’s a little I
Think he’s probably a little bit younger too he’s a little bit he’s a little bit more fresh to the scene so he’s still learning a little bit more um I think he has I don’t know if he can ever be in that top tier with Rory cheffer where
You know you could see DJ getting into that tier right I don’t think you you can make that argument with him yet but I definitely can see him in that hin area yeah without question I mean I I think you can make the case that that ober’s ahead of schedule like he’s he’s
Better than Scotty was at this time of Scotty’s career I would say but Scotty also made this like alltime great jump from where he was then to where he is now so you certainly can’t predict that for anybody else uh for me like after the top five I think on really difficult
Golf courses I think I’d probably put JT next especially difficult conditions and if it’s not difficult then JT is at the end of that list for me where I think I’d probably put cam Smith and cam young next oberg in that in that uh in that
Same area but yeah I think uh I think we did a pretty good job covering the the best of when they’re on how good are they so it’s time to move into the Mexico open we’re not going to spend too much time here talk a little bit of
Course fit if give out an outright or two and then talk through one and done we will be done with the show as well so course fitwise this is actually a really really interesting one we only have two years of data here so it’s it’s not the most reliable but when you get
Percentages like this you know that directionally at the very least they matter we have driving distance 197% more predictive than usual on this golf course I think there’s a couple elements here number one it’s a really long golf course it’s at sea level the layout just also benefits distance
There’s also I think a correlation here between how far you can hit the ball and how good you are with your long irons there’s a ton of uh long iron approach shots on this golf course so driving distance Far and Away the most important thing in the golf course around the
Green play barely matters at all putting also matters a ton which kind of L to the to the fact that you know as long as it is it’s a pretty easy golf course so no surprise to see distance and putting approach play pretty much neutral and driving accuracy pretty much neutral
Anything here surprise you Justin no I mean it’s a Resort golf course right I mean that’s just what it is it’s built to be a Resort golf course so when you play a PJ Tour event on a resort you’re just G to struggle to um to make it hard enough that’s just
I mean you you’re going to need wind and you’re going to need some elements to make it any difficult I I mean pretty much anytime the PJ tour goes to to either Mexico or or any anywhere like that it’s always at Resort golf courses except for chipot toek they played in in
Mexico City which is an actual very highend Country Club right there in the middle of the city um so that’s why you see so many low scores I think in in all these events and they all end up kind of the same by the way this has no real
Relevance on course fit but did you know the designer of this course is Greg Norman I did not know that um designes but yeah he he he designed a bunch he had a little stint there where he designed a bunch of golf courses in
In Mexico he did a I mean there was the one down there the very south tip of Cabo that he did that he did nine holes and then like Nicholas or somebody did nine holes you want to talk about two opposite nine holes of golf like one like Beachside and ones in the
Mountains yeah there are uh there are actually a number of Norman courses I’ve played a few I’ve liked every single Norman course that I’ve played I think he does a pretty good job and I’d also say you can kind of you kind of tell he designs golf courses to his strengths as
A player so it’s also no surprise there that we see such an edge on on driving here as a whole and especially on distance um so did do you believe any of these reports that the rough rough is up a little bit High I saw something that
It’s two and a half to three in do you believe any of that or do you think that’s going to matter I I certainly believe it I don’t have any reason not to believe it I don’t think it’ll change much maybe it adds a little bit of a
Round the green signal but that would still be down I these Fairways are super wide so it’s not going to come into play a ton I I think maybe it comes into play more around the greens which could actually then take away some signal too
So it’s it’s tough I I I don’t think it’s going to factor much I certainly think the thing that’s going to be true is if you are attacking players who are long off the te especially if they’re also accurate and guys who can make putts you’re going to be set up pretty
Well this week do you think fena will be the chalki oneandone of the Year yes this week without question I I think he will be 30% something like that maybe even higher in one andone we haven’t really seen anyone get over 15% so far this
Year so I think I he might be the not just the most popular to this point in the season but also the most popular in any week going forward that’s what that and that that’s my point I think that he might be the chalki uh pick of the entire year I
Think the only the only time we might see someone get close to that is either Rah or Brooks at a major when everyone is using the same strategy of using live guys in those four events yeah speaking how did we not we we literally didn’t mention Brooks kka at all either in our
Conversation which maybe is a little bit um just because of what he does on the biggest stage um yeah I it’s so that’s an interesting one because his best is when we see him in Majors right like it’s it’s not oh he he gets in this Zone he just finds a way in
Those Majors so he doesn’t really pop in that thought for me and I don’t think it’s a mistake as great as he is in those events yeah I just I always think if you’re going to play your best it’s always going to be at the biggest moment and it seems like
That’s when he’s at so that and and you know that that’s going to go back to my give me a guy with the Killer Instinct over the guy that like can’t lay that just goes out there and and and plays good so anyway back back on top back on
Topic here um I definitely want to find a guy outside of f now to play this week I’ve got a few I and my you know the the first one that comes to mind would be hogard I think that you’re never gonna regret using him not using him somewhere
Else he checks the boxes of hitting it far I’m I I just I still think that he the the problem I’m gonna have is I think he might be the second most popular pick this week so I I love this call he’s number one in our expected Strokes game metric
This week number one by a mile in our course fit expected Strokes gain number this week gaining over a third of a stroke per round with driving distance gaining over a third of a stroke per round against this field putting that’s the recipe for Success he just Nails it
To a te um I I do agree that there is concern about his ownership I’m not sure how much we should care because I think fenos will keep his in check and uh it’s not like quard is separating in the odds board uh from any from the rest of the
Pack the way that Tony is um the other guy for me and the guy who’s actually right behind hoard where they are one and two in both expected stroke G and course fit expected stroke gained fenos third is Keith Mitchell another guy just phenomenal off the tea I would say he’s
The best driver in this field he is tied for the longest at 39 Strokes gained per round he’s also one of the most accurate at 04 Strokes gained per round with his driving accuracy not quite the putter that hoard is but it’s also not a weakness he gains 0 one1 per round to
This field so Mitchell also checks every box both of those guys are 5.3% to win in our simulations only Fen now is ahead at 6.7% so I’m I think for me it’s between hoard and Mitchell and I wouldn’t really consider anybody else I have one more
That’s kind of off the wall and he’s and this is going to be back to kind of where you’re gonna you’re more stats and analytical to where just the eye test and kind of what have you done lately and that’s Davis Thompson he hits it
Really far and he putts the eyes out of it so I think that if you wanted to get somebody that would you be surprised if we were the only one to pick him like you know what I mean like he just he’s not he’s not a household name yet I think that he
He’s going to be one of those guys that at some point we’re going to talk about being in that his best is what you know is his best in the top 20 best in the country that yeah I I think that’s a fair point I think you could also put
Jake knap in that same context then like if you’re just trying to get somebody that’s 1% and has a chance to to Really break through here for the first time um my thought here is that outside of Pho there’s nobody in this field that if we
Take this week we’re going to think in another week oh I really wish we still had that guy available um so for me like I just want to stay at at somebody who has a better chance to win a better chance to contend which is why I lean
Between hoard and Mitchell but I do think it’s a fair point on Thompson if if we wanted that like 0.1% Victory uh that certainly could be a way to go it will also depend on what what the the DFS ownership looks like we don’t have
That yet uh but we can we can learn a lot from that like if if when I run that I see Thompson being 20% and Mitchell being 10% now we might even think you know what Mitchell might be the lower owned one and done as well in which case
It becomes a much easier decision uh but maybe maybe Thompson will be at like 3% Mitchell and hoard will both be 25 to 30 and it’s like all right maybe we do need to get off the board so uh maybe we reserve this decision for when we have a
Better sense of what ownership will look like but I think we’ve got some some good options this week I think it I think it’ll take a lot for us to be off hogard like it would have to be something silly I in my opinion I just
Think that the upside that you get from him winning here is is going to be hard to pass Mitchell by the way is my favorite outright of the week 28 to1 on bet 365 I took the eway as well because we’ve got him at 17.7% to finish in the top five only
Hoard is better uh basically like hoard and Mitchell are almost neck and neck across the board in our simulated probabilities but Mitchell is let’s see what his numbers are at now um he’s still 28 so he’s down to 25 to one now which I do still like um and
Then we get Hoy guard all the way down at 16 to one so just a a bigger split between the two in the in the market than I’m seeing which is why I like the Mitchell outright more but but man when it comes to the one andone if if we
Don’t believe that hoard is going to be super popular I think he’d be my Top Choice yeah I agree I don’t and I don’t I don’t I mean we’ll kind of wait and see but I I would unlike other weeks I think that this is going to be a little
Bit easier decision for us to make awesome all right thanks everyone for tuning in and if you want you can absolutely throw some of your own you know best of the best discussion in the comments let us know who did we leave off our list who did we have too high on
The list we want all those thoughts thanks again for tuning in we will catch you next time
