What UConn’s Loss Means Going into March Madness on “A Numbers Game” – February 21, 2024

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I’m Ben Wilson in for Gil Kelly bidin our producer is here once again he never misses a day Kelly great to have you back how you hanging in there with no NBA I feel bad for you you know what it’s uh it’s it’s a little bit of a a

Vacation and reset time you know what it’s a mental vacation like I I watched college basketball last night it was uh it it was an exciting product it it was a a little bit of a mixup for me yeah I mean Daytona on Monday college basketball yesterday really mixing up

What I’m doing the double that everybody uh wants to go right in are you like the Doc Rivers of uh of maybe needing you know diving in too early on college basketball are you are you thinking why why am I starting now why don’t I just

Wait till March M uh yeah but don’t I watched it I wasn’t firing away Ben don’t worry yeah I wasn’t firing away on bets yeah yeah I’ll save that for March Madness yes sa that but I’ve had a few few beverages in me on uh Friday afternoon the patented Celly bidin at

Florida State Alma moer sweat is a psych to behold that how they doing this year I have no idea all right acc’s Terri like are they going to make the tournament I KN I know they were like m I mean ACC is has really fallen off so I

Don’t there’s really not going to be many bids coming out of that conference in general really putting Ben on the hot seat right out of the gate hey Leonard Hamilton’s still doing his thing but as a head coach but yeah incredible not much to like about uh

About Florida State could be worse but there’s there’s a there’s a way to go we will have a lot of college basketball talk I have a couple bets that we’ll talk about here in about 15 minutes or so and our pal D cuff who was burning the midnight oil last night in studio

For ESPN D will join us to talk some of the college basketball biggest matchups on the card tonight as well as breaking down champions league today so we have down coming up at 11:00 a.m. eastern time before that our pal C into J for the Monumental Sports Network and sports

Line will join us to talk Mexico open we go South of the Border in the PGA fresh episode of long shots out now with Kelly Matt Brown and Wes Reynold so we’ll get Kelly’s full thoughts as well on the Mexico open and also have to get into

Some NFL draft talk as well because that is now the cycle that we are we’re moving into we’ll also get some NHL talk as well with our pal Jonathan Davis from Sirius XM on the ice we’ve got everything covered Kelly even the college football where you know I feel

Bad every time I say KY bidin Florida State Alum and still bitter about what happened in the in the playoff committee decision going back to last season but we do have now a new change that has been made the committee yesterday late yesterday approves the new 12 team

Playoff format with the now five Conference champions plus the top seven at large bids is there no better example though of how flawed the current college system is right now than the fact that the committee basically had to wait for the president of Washington state who represents the Pack 12 whose school

Isn’t even in the Pack 12 anymore to confer with the president of Oregon state who’s also not in the Pack 12 anymore to figure out how they wanted to do the voting because those were the guys that continued to push everything back and back and back trying to wait

All right what’s actually going to be best for our team and it’s just it’s hilarious to me Kelly that you get Kirk Schultz who comes out and basically admits well yeah I guess for us the only way we can qualify is being an at large because we’re not in a conference

Anymore that’s a top five conference so let’s just go ahead and approve this format college football just general hierarchy here in a nutshell Kelly in 2024 but that does get approved it’s the right decision but that’s what it all came down to and that’s what’s crazy about the whole ordeal how does that

Make any sense it does I don’t know if I knew like so so the Washington State president was representing the Pack 12 so each conference has a particular representative it’s not like all you know not like every every single School in each of the power fives get to vote

On this they they assign one representative and in a great case of how flaw the especially the Pack 12 is a conference that has been falling apart at the seams their representative is a President Who as part of making a vote for one of the biggest decisions in the

Current landscape of college football is the president of a school that is playing as part of a Mountain West schedule next year and it is is in the process of leaving altoe oh yeah okay yeah sure sure sure I everybody should be really confident

With how this is going to go I mean this is I it’s stuff like this right where we’re we’re talking about changes and yes of yes I like the idea of an expanded playoff whatever you make more big- time college football games it’s great I do think it hurts the regular

Season a bit but um you know at least nobody gets screwed like Florida State uh might have uh this last time around uh but it is um it’s it’s quite hilarious yes when you get into the details of how they get this stuff figured well the other really funny part

Of this too is that the college football playoff committee so it’s you know the five Conference champions next seven at large seems pretty simple right you’re going all right yeah you have the group of five but the college football playoff committee they will intentionally not

Refer to it as the group of five because there is that long shot chance you you think about the current you know group of five here there you know it could be you know the AAC is considered the you know the the final of the group of five

You could have a conference USA team you could have a Mountain West team who maybe they are higher in the overall rankings they technically or even the sun Bel or Mack there’s a world in which one of those Conference champions is actually your fifth here Kelly so that’s

The even the even funnier part about this the committee can’t even go and just and and and straight up tell you these are the five Conference champions and then we have seven at larges it’s basically well it’s the four Legacy power fives as we know it four of the

Five the fifth is sort of this floating potential fifth conference that could be one of four different leagues but it will be a conference champion that conference Champion but it could be any anywhere it doesn’t have to be the American wow so figure that all out that’s your latest college football

College football news uh going on right now it is very important going forward but it really just it just more puts a magnifying glass on the general hypocrisy and unorganized structure of the top of the college football governing bodies and we the fans and the

Betters now are the ones who try to sift through this year Futures is the biggest implication going forward when you talk about now a playoff being expanded speaking of Futures though Kelly it’s late February it’s a great time to overreact to college basketball what’s going on right now whole lot of people

Not necessarily in panic mode but going all right is this Yukon team really all that they were cracked up to be is the Huskies had a 14 game winning streak longest in the country hadn’t lost in 2024 they go to Omaha last night and get the doors blown off the kraton Blue Jays

Come in and absolutely own them from start to finish there were guys there was a guy who had hit a three All Season Kelly who was like basically stephh Curry um kind of tells you in a nutshell how the Blue Jay’s night was going last night it was like that’s cting every

Other well it was uh yeah it was it was pretty it was pretty nuts they they’re getting guys all all over the place to contribute and now you go all right Yukon who who are they really after losing 8566 a very public play last night who

Lose by far as a two and a half Point favorite but they’re still 5 to one on the Futures board and I would argue this is easily the best thing that could have happened to Yukon in this runup to the NCAA tournament a NCAA tournament that has so much history of Gauntlet running

And front running regular season teams getting to the oneandone format and not necessarily flat falling flat on their face but the pressure building up to a point that it is so hard to sustain and how many examples do we need to look at John calari himself can speak to this as

A Kentucky head coach and even going back to his Memphis days where that was a team who ran through conference play wasn’t tested whatsoever and all of a sudden you get to the big dance one team starts getting hot from three you get down a little bit and don’t really know

How to react to that I thought the quotes last night from head coach Bobby Hurley were extremely telling where he came out and straight up said it’s hard to be motivated in a huddle when you haven’t lost in two months think about how that translates Ford Kelly to an

NCAA tournament of course you’re going to have motivation but you haven’t been tested like that you haven’t actually been knocked off where do you really go there and get the fire you know Yukon you think about them compared to last year when they had a huge early season

And into the start of Big East play swoon ended up only being a four seed and had all the motivation in the world being as they felt disrespected by the committee it’s totally the opposite now this year where they have a Target on their back they’re the number one team

In the country and they’ve been that way all season they are the favorites and should be to win the big dance this is the best thing that could happen to them because of that motivation going forward and and because they now can go back to a really good head coach and say all

Right guys let’s lock in let’s be better at three-point defense where they’ve been outside the top 100 All Season okay yeah yeah that was yeah Jared and I were talking about it kind of the past couple days this you know good would it be a

Good thing or a bad thing kind of for this team to pick up an L uh along the way here and uh you’re probably right Ben I think this probably reenters them a bit get get to look forward look ahead and if you’re a better Yukon was 5 to

One yesterday they’re 5 to one today after a loss so um we talked about this like with the rest of their schedule not really all that all that tough still right Ben so like this is you know if you want to get involved on Yukon I

Don’t know if I’d be getting involved in the short of a number with the NCA tournament how the layout is you know how it works but um you’re talking about a number that’s probably not getting any longer by the time we get to the tournament right that’s part of it it’s

Not any value you want to be actually betting and really outside of a game at Marquette which is the rematch of that top five game from last weekend where Yukon won by 28 and was basically proclaimed you had writer saying all right is this Yukon team better than

Last year’s team as if to say don’t even play March Manis it’s over you know we go so far on one side of the spectrum and now we’ve come probably too far back on the other side going oh what’s wrong with this team they just got blown out

By a pretty good kraton team who is in the 30 to1 range to win the big dance and has the tools to make a Deep Run with a guy like oryan caul brener who was a stud last night a seven foot big who can step out and also shoot threes

At 5 to one it’s it’s not a team Kelly you do your point I’m not betting five to one right now just because it’s buying low on a team that lost the odds didn’t even move so you can’t even say that at the end of the day though Yukon

Is still going to be the favorite and they should be and they should be by margin considering the teams right in their same milk of Purdue and Houston who are untested who have struggled in the big moments in high lever genca tournament spots because Yukon still has

A head coach and Dan Hurley who just won a national title and Prov that his in-game decision-making was absolutely Elite in the stretches where they needed it most last year you still have a Do-it all guard and Tristan Newton who was an unbelievable player on both ends of the

Floor and has been rated as one of the top 10 players in the country you still have dead ey three-point Shooters like an Alex caraban there are two different Shooters shooting over 40% this year from three caraban as well as cam Spencer and you got back from injury

Your 72 Center Donovan kingan who’s an absolute beast on the boards top 10 in offensive rebounding this year it’s still the most complete team in college basketball don’t let late February results when teams are kind of in the dog days of the Season impact you as to thinking what are the teams likelihoods

Of winning it all come March I like it man I like it like makes sense and yeah this is uh this is the the get the battle tested uh time of the schedule right like get prepared for the tournament time man got to get to get

Some get these LS out of the way time of year it’s a whole lot of conference Revenge long road trips and we’ll talk about some of those situational spots I love the situational betting this time of year and we will have two plays to uh

To reflect that coming up next a lot of big matchups here on the card today we’ll go to the Mountain West we’ll go to the SEC when we come back it is a numbers game here from V the sports betting Network a numbers game on V the sports betting

Network we know you’ve been busy with football which is why the vent experts have just relieved our released our free NBA at the break betting primer get the free guide today and bet the NBA Smarter with Futures bets to make right now Eastern and Western Conference analysis

Plus betting tips for the rest of the season visit von.com guu to get your free copy today that is vs.com SGU I say reli because I know Kelly bidin will be relieved once we gets the second half of the Season underway here uh it’s out you know you

Got have the gears turning somewhere in your head H great conference previews in there by Zack Cohen and jvt two of the greats uh great breakdowns by them I wrote a little piece up on the MVP race good stuff in there if you’re if you’re if you’ve been watching NBA I think

There’s some stuff for you in there if you haven’t been watching the NBA it’s a good time to to jump in check out that primer get you set for the rest of the season we will go heavy NBA tomorrow I’ve got a division future I will throw

Your way tomorrow on the show we’re already already we’re already previewing tomorrow show at 10:15 a.m. eastern time we’re just starting this show but today we have a lot on the college basketball card for you as we are getting closer inside a month to selection Sunday as

Part of the NCAA tournament and a couple couple of really interesting spots for tonight Kelly if I were to tell you we have a total of 174 tonight in college basketball in the SEC would you and two top 25 teams could I get you to commit

And watch is that is that something you might be interested in yeah I’m a little interested in that yeah okay all right we get Florida on the road at Alabama tonight oh I know I’m rud for Roll Tide we got the we got the first Roll

Tide of the day already out of our system here and we’re we’re 60 minutes into the show this is a game right now Alabama laying is 8 and half Point favorites here Market from 8 to 8 and 1 half overnight 174 right now your total

This actually was at one point 174 and a half which gives you the old implied score of 91 and a half to 83 and a half you got to love that when that’s where we’re starting on a total but hey these are two of the best offensive teams in

The country each top 10 they each play really fast and they each struggle on defense right what’s not to love the issue here to me is how Florida will try to match up against Mark Sears and Alabama Mark Sears has just been absolutely unreal you talk about a 61

Guard who’s 16th in the country and true shooting it’s really hard to do Mark Sears does it well on both ends of the floor Alabama to me is just a a better well more oiled machine than exactly what Florida tries Florida tries to do to you on the other side of the ball

Here because Alabama’s better on offense they play faster defense is slightly better and it’s two teams that are finessed they shoot a ton of Threes And yet the efficiency numbers just all point to Alabama this season they take the six most threes in the country they’re top 10 and three-point

Percentage they’re also top 11 and two-pointers so it is a really hard team to slow down and we get these situational spots too where look at Florida’s last six games five of those have been decided by two possessions or less there two were two of those games

That went to overtime that Florida won and the only nonclose game in the stretch for Florida was one of their biggest games of the season they upset top 10 Auburn at home by 16 in a game where they were way way up in from the start and were super motivated whole lot

Of juice there at the oome in gain you get these stretches toward the back end of the conference season where Florida’s been playing so many tight games as much as I’m usually not one to want to lay a big number in conference play Kelly eight and a half in a game

That’s lying to almost 175 is not the same as Ling eight and a half in your old school early 200’s Big 10 clash with a total in the 120s right give me Alabama here to win this game by double digits and I don’t see how Florida slows

Him down on the defensive endend where they’re 191st defending threes this year yeah yeah I like it I’m just P pulling up some kenpom numbers right now yeah this is uh man this Alabama team man they’re just pure offense these days right it is well the other part of the

Too for you know for Nate oats they have a couple of these games where they just there are times they just don’t show up on defense a lot of times that happens on the road and Nate oats known as a fiery guy in coaching circles last bad

Game was the Rivalry game at Auburn Alabama comes out they give up 99 in that game and were pretty much no shows they got blitzed from the start lost by 18 since then Alabama scored 209 points over the last two games Sears has gone off in each of those 23 points and three

Steals each of the last two you don’t see those sorts of numbers in today’s college basketball all that often clear to me that Alabama has responded in a big way from that and they’ve there might have been some uh some strict talking to there in the locker room so

Alabama in a good spot tonight I laid eight and a half with the tight and that’s still available there uh mark it why yeah you’re talking Bama so Pama first first and offens efficiency what Florida 10th and then you’re talking 72nd and defense and Florida 90th okay

No yeah not two teams they’ll both be in the big dance not two teams I would be betting on to make runs because when you don’t really defend when it’s defense optional Kelly it’s not usually a rest I was going to bring it up Bama I feel like I’m not hearing many people

Believing in bama making much of a run correct and it’s really because of that it’s exactly you don’t tend to see those teams who are who basically are going to be super reliant on having an unbelievably efficient offensive night winning every game of the NCA tournament

Now last year they were they were were were they were they more balanced with with Brandon Miller out there is that was that what it was or is it really that loss that they’re feeling on the defensive side or it’s more than that I I think it’s I mean it’s the way NATO

Sets up his team you know last and last year they were really really good on the defensive end but you know I thought Miller was able to hide a lot of those deficiencies just you know behind them that was just how good of a player he

Was being you know being such a lengthy guy on the you know both perimeter and on the interior but when they face San Diego State wasn’t exactly known as a great offensive team I mean they couldn’t get a stop down the stretch yeah and that kind of shows you how

Sometimes the numbers don’t necessarily tell the full story in that and Alabama was a team that lost in the sweet 16 last year to the eventual Runners up so play number one that’s Alabama minus 8 and a half San Diego State though Kelly uh they’ve been still a solid team this

Year they’re part of a mount West that is absolutely loaded projected to get six bids in this season in the mount West a much deeper conference in even some of the power fives like an ACC that’s really weak this year to the Mountain West we go and it’s Colorado

State on the road at New Mexico two teams who are each near the top of the league standings eight and five Colorado State’s a projected six seed wall and Mexico slipped a little bit recently they’re more like a 10 seed it is so funny to me Kelly how people have just

Completely dove in and blindly backed the single narrative which is the unranked home teams who are favorite against the road ranked teams people think this is just some blind you know you don’t even think about it you don’t even think twice you just put it in the

Account and you you count your money later well the odds makers certainly know that and they have adjusted these lines now have really been baked in so far that the value is only on the dog with the road teams and this year now if you’re looking at those exact systems on

The unranked home favorites against the road ranked team they’re only 18 and 17 against the number and if you’re laying minus 110 viig every single time on those bets you’re losing money this year and this is another great example where Colorado state New Mexico extremely even

On paper and yet New Mexico is now laying seven at home at the pit where they’ve lost two straight team that’s two and three in their last five games last time I checked New Mexico is only good on offense because they have a ton of possessions they’re really not even

That efficient and you have a very balanced Colorado State team who has the best single player in this game the six fo senior Isaiah Stevens who’s an absolute unit with his unbelievable Vision he’s third in the country in assist rate also a 44% three-point shooter and I’m getting seven on the

Road here Kelly I played this at six last night obviously you know I threw like a half unit on this thinking it it uh you know was thinking maybe six would be the threshold here it would come back the other way but now we’re up to seven which really surprises me and I

Understand why people are doing it they see that number and they think oh this this has to be a system and a sign to bet it but I completely disagree with where we’re at here is that what is that what you’re seeing a so you’re seeing

That a lot in the market this year it’s just blind I mean it’s literally just blind Steam on these these these types of situations where we get ranked team team against non-ranked team the non-ranked team f ends up being two two and a half points higher than it should

Be and you’re talking tight conference games like I get it Colorado State’s one and five in conference games on the road this year they are a team that’s much better at home in Fort Collins than they are on the road there is conference Revenge here Colorado State won the

First game at home by eight points I understand all that so do the odds makers right that’s that’s what it comes down to and this is a much more balanced team Colorado State at the end of the day third and assist to field goal ratio really good at shooting twos or they get

Great Looks on the interior because of the passing of Isaiah Stevens and the Mexico is just average they’re outside the top 100 in defending both twos and threes this year it’s not like the pit is some impossible place to play in as multiple teams have gone in there and

Won like you know like a UNLV recently who’s not even going to be in the big dance most likely it’s a lot to ask now to lay seven against a team that consistent and solid on both ends in a Colorado State that’s why I like the

Rams all right I like it so you you what you got two college basketball players we got two late eight and a half with Alabama we took six with Colorado State and you can uh you can do a lot better you can get seven right now I’m not

Going to go back in and uh and Reet it you know just just kind of out of sort of out of principle Kelly I mean I’m not looking to chase because you know there have been a lot of games and we’ve seen big big moves in college basketball

Where Li might move three four points and then the other team ends up winning you know in a landslide that has been a theme of the college basketball season so I wouldn’t overreact just you know as much as we always say though closing line value you want to get that I

Wouldn’t overreact just because you make an early bet and all of a sudden the line goes you know half point to a point against you I I don’t really know jvt and I have talked about this a bit I don’t really like it’s been such a thing

In the NBA this year too where I’ve like I’ve had line moves go against me but I I do think it’s a and really for the most part have you know not affected my winning and it is one of those like the the of of what your your point of I you

Know I don’t think it’s chasing or anything like that I think there is probably an inclination for a lot of people out there to add on at a better number but like if you’re making if you’re I mean assuming you’re betting this year you have a number in your head

Or you’re making a number of what you think this spread should be and if it was good enough at six to bet it at that there’s no reason that you need to go add on more just because the lines moved one point and sure you full two

Possessions with that six as well couple of plays for us on the college basketball hardwood tonight we will transition talk a little golf with our pal C in the J from the Monumental Sports Network next a numbers game on vent the sports betting network if you’re looking for a betting

Edge on college basketball the Von experts have got you covered become a Von Pro subscriber today and get our daily Best Bets emails 247 video access the upcoming college hoops Betting Guide bracket breakdowns plus full access to von.com with our exclusive betting split breakdowns on every game visit von.com

Slpro to subscribe today that is vs.com slpro Kelly Bin’s gotten all the college basketball talk he can handle first half hour of the show so we’re gave you everything I got he emptied the T thanks man thanks for just letting me catch my breath for you know 15 seconds at a time

That’s all I wanted no problem that’s all I wanted now we transition to something Kelly loves and we will talk about a bunch here coming up on the show it’s the golf as the PGA tour goes South of the Border here to Pora vayarta and

Our pal CA J joined us right now great to have C you back here on a numbers game find him on the Monumental Sports Network as well as host on Sportsline at C andad uh see how how I know Kelly has uh talked a lot on this show about his

Mental fortitude here trying to stomach six triple digit winners in seven events so far on the PGA tour how has that all broken down for you with the way your card is has kind of been formulated here in the early part of the season well it’s interesting by the way Ben

Nice to be with you Kelly obviously as well uh you know I haven’t hit the outrights yeah I’m all for Long Shots let’s be honest but I am not hitting Nick Dunlap I’m not hitting Hideki at at 90 to1 although I probably should have anytime Hideki is at such a long number

We do know he has Superstar ability what I have been good at so far is kind of round matchups and tournament matchups things of that nature so that’s kind of the good news because I think that is the bread and butter when it comes to golf betting and certainly Kelly can

Tell you that as as well that’s kind of the sustainable model right it’s great to hit an outright it’s great to hit a first round leader but if you can be ahead on your head-to-head matchups your maybe your your round three balls your round head-to heads uh that’s where you

Know you can sustain it long term yeah I I at least Kelly really enjoy when Sea comes out with you know with the SE alive bets and it’s the like round two three ball and I’m like this wasn’t even on my radar and I look and I’m like

Doing the stuff in my head and I’m like wait that actually makes a lot of sense so I I know I feel like that has probably been c as we’ve gone through where you can look kind of in tournament here you know it applies same principles right as in-game betting in other sports

You can see where the Strokes gain numbers are at in real time you can see the matchups and especially further down the board where the odds might not be super tight you go okay there could be some edges here to exploit even if it’s not the sexy all right here long shots

For betting to win outright well that’s the beauty of golf betting because it’s impossible for them to have efficient markets across all of these potential bets these aren’t just pre-tournament bets right you mentioned it in mid-tournament where like sometimes I’ll tweet these plays out and you’ve got

Pretty much every matchup on the board or at least every player that has a matchup for in in large part across all the books so you know it’s such a big Delta between the efficiency of that type of Market where you’ve got potentially 156 players in matchups every single day and resetting those

Matchups every single day in three balls versus like an NFL Sunday even the prop Market in the NFL is going to be more efficient which and I again I I love betting the NFL sides and totals and the prop Market but if we’re talking about efficiency of markets you’re going to

Find at least efficient on a sport like golf which isn’t as popular and certainly when you have so such a multitude of bets um that’s where the edge is going to be see a Jad with us on a numbers game as we preview the Mexico open if there is the elephant on the

Green this week it’s the putter of Tony fow who ranks 169th out of 170 on the PGA tour this year seea in those putts from 4 to8 feet it’s been an absolute disaster so far for fale and yet he’s the favorite overwhelmingly so because he’s finished runner up and

Champion each of the last two years here at Vidant via how are you approaching fow this week well some might say because he’s not 170 out of 170 the glass is half full instead of half MP so let’s just try to stay positive on Tony Fe now but the reality is that like

Listen he’s been really good here the the when he lost it’s only been two times on this course he lost to John ROM so no shame in that I mean he’s obviously great and I expect him to be great again and I expect the putter to

Be just fine for him because these ppum greens they they present such a different sort of challenge than maybe the greens he’s been putting on as of late so I mean I think he’s going to be okay with the putter am I taking him at

Seven or 8 to one no I’m not because I think there’s enough guys in the chase pack that can just have four rounds that you know in aggregate are better than Tony F now so if Tony F now was 14 to1 we’d be having a different conversation

I think he’s going to do fine I think he’s likely going to land in the top 10 but I’m not betting him it makes sense when you think about only six of the top 60 in the world rankings are in this field and you have some guys we’re used

To seeing longer numbers on who are now a little bit shorter because of that c you where did you look to start your card here at least on the outrate market yeah I started with Steph joerger I mean if I’m being honest I look at his

Metrics and I want to be a little bit more impressed with his metrics but I do think this is first of all he’s been just fine but but except for his last tournament I I do think this is a potential field where Steph Jer can finally break out I mean he’s got enough

Length off the te he’s good enough with the iron play the putter can sometimes plague him but again on these pest balum greens I expect him to do pretty well uh the history is okay here actually it’s better it’s a little bit better than okay if memory serves I think he’s been

Inside the top 20 both times he’s played here I think this is one of those fields where we can finally see Steven joerger in the winner circle and I’ll say the same about Taylor pendrith Taylor pendrith has really kind of like I would say the last six months of last year he

Was really bad and and we were waiting for Taylor pendrith to like start being a good again I he had an injury to shake off about a year ago he’s starting to get back into form and this is such a good course for him so him and joer at

25 to1 and and I’ll get to my other guy at 25 to1 in a second I think they’re really good course fits especially Taylor pendrith he’s good with the long irons as well the other guy I really like and and I got it 35 to1 I even

Tweeted this out right when the lines came out because I had a feeling I the the the number was going to go down I said hey everybody my my first bet is going to be Keith Mitchell at 35 to1 and I didn’t move the market I’m not saying

I did I think a lot of people move the market but it went down to 25 to1 within maybe a couple of hours I think Keith Mitchell is really primed again in this field to play really well he was t17 at the farmers now that’s that’s definitely

A different course but what I love about Mitchell is he was t17 at the farmers and we’re starting to see the off the te stuff really bounce or come back for him uh and Keith Mitchell is just he’s such a good course fit if he is popping with

The weighted with the off the te numbers in the driving distance which I fully expect him to do I think he absolutely can win this tournament so those are three guys I like in the kind of the shorter shot Market 25 to 30 to one I’ll

Give you I’ll give you two long shot outrights real quick Johnny Vegas ball striking we really saw it last week uh or the last time he played and if the ball striking is there this is a really good course for Johnny Vegas and then Michael Kim’s another guy that’s

Emerging with the long iron play with the off the te game both he and Johnny Vegas are in that 55 to 60 to1 range I think they’ve got a viable shot to win it we’re talking Vidant Vara Mexico open here with our palen Jad right now on a

Numbers game it’s been viewed as a bombers Paradise you the issue is there’s not a whole lot of data we only have two years of the tournament is it as easy to just say is all right focus on your big hitters your guys who hit the long irons well and just go from

There or how much other Feld did you try to incorporate considering considering the stats and data don’t really go all that far back yeah it’s a great question unfortunately I have a very simple answer for you and I think the answer is yes normally I want to provide a little

Bit more Nuance but I think this truly is one of the few courses where you can just say hey this is a bombers Paradise I hope you pick the right bombers and if you do like I’ll give you an example Ryan Fox is has it not been good he’s a

Good golfer but he has not been good if you look at the metrics they’re they’re just terrible across the board if you start seeing where he is in the market he’s 35 to1 to win this tournament when you look at the top 40 top 20 Market he’s a guy that’s actually getting like

A decent amount of respect even in round one matchups I’m noticing like he’s a favorite over Michael Kim at minus 120 versus plus 100 he’s a guy that’s been so bad but because he’s such a good course fit because he’s he can bomb it and and potentially get hot he’s a guy

That the market is actually at least moderately respecting so it’s just to me you can absolutely be the guy like a mark hubard who’s not necessarily long off the tea that can succeed here Brandon Woo is another guy that succeeded here because he’s great on paspalum greens but for me in large part

I’m looking for those bombers and it also reflects in now the first round leader Market where there’s going to be a lot of variants right talk about a bombers Paradise a lot of birdies made out there Vidant VI how did you go about attacking the frl market there yeah this

Will look really familiar Taylor pendrith Keith Mitchell they’re no stranger to hot starts by the way so I mean I think at 40 to1 each way by the way these are all morning guys I do expect in this tournament the the morning conditions to be much better but

Pendrith and Mitchell both at 40 to1 Jake knap is a newcomer speaking of bombers he can absolutely bomb it we’ve seen him be really success successful on the corn Fury tour that is translated in the few starts on the PGA tour so at 50

To1 like I don’t want to be late to the party on Jake naap I don’t have him as an outright he almost was an outright but long story short 50 to one this guy can get hot and then again Michael Kim I already mentioned Sam Stevens uh is a is

A really good course fit here at 66 to1 you might get find him at 55 to1 as a first round leader in some markets I think that’s plenty worth it he’s 7100 in DraftKings he’s super popular because he’s a really good course fit and I

Think Sam Stevens has a shot to uh be a first round leader here yeah you’re gonna you’re G to see a lot of the same names later Ben when I go my place yes see and I are lined a lot I forgot there was one bet I wanted to tail you on when

You when you sent me stuff last night see and it was that pendra top Canadian that that might be my favorite bet on your card I haven’t bet that yet I’ll be adding that one for sure want to hit up with something you brought up real quick

Though the first round leader stuff John ROM’s comments about the wind come affecting things on the morning wave versus the afternoon wave look it up if you haven’t seen it if you are betting this week I think there’s something very telling there on who you might want to

Be targeting kind of first round leaderwise and what you’re going to see with some of that wind uh it was something sea just kind of mentioned yeah I know that’s fascinating to look at too and that will be the one really coar defense that we see is the win on

On a coastal course like that also Michael Kim minus one0 over Austin eot see his matchup here this week see great to see you again we love having the Deep dive card on every single week of the golf betting calendar great to see you again we’ll talk to you soon thanks fell

See you soon we have more to come as well on the golf because Kelly bidin has his full course breakdown we have the long shots podcast it is out now wherever you get your podcast Kelly Matt Brown West Reynolds be sure to check that out as well we’ll dive a little bit

Deeper into the golf in a little bit up next though we continue the discussion on a numbers game we go to the NFL talking some next team odds for quarterbacks a numbers game on VN the sports betting Network this week on draftking Sportsbook new customers can deposit $5

And get a no sweat bet up to $1,000 in bonus bets if your first bet loses download the app and use promo code Von when you sign up draftking sports book The Crown is yours for those of you watching ing Us on fe.com YouTube TV I got to say Kelly I usually listen

Because I’m usually in bed to a numbers game and I never the animation’s awesome Gil just looking looking Fierce blue steel walking that’s great I noticed that before they always get the the stuff that always gets chosen is like us getting ready for the for photo shoots which I never underst understand I’m

Like why are you doing the why are you doing the photo shoot then like we were we take everything from us getting ready and joking beforehand you know that’s so good I think of like doing play byplay and so you know like they’ll have the the social media people who will film

The guys obviously getting off the bus right walked into the arena and I remember jump like God those guys look so cool like can you should do you know do me one time like walk in with my briefcase and then you realize like that whole thing is such an art like I look

Like the biggest Bozo walking into the arena where I’m just like cheat you know I’m smiling way too aggressively like I’m really you know I’m really not as put together as I think I am and it’s like all right yeah you don’t have to do that again I you know don’t don’t don’t

Uh kill yourself to walk in yeah yeah I’ll just I’ll STI behind the you know I’m behind the microphone well when everybody gets a kick out of I it took us like 14 takes on the bill 8 commercial where I’m just sitting here nodding my head because I was being told

I was overacting too much so that was that’s so Gil had like one line and I was like I guess I was I was I was acting too much Kelly bidin famous over actor that’s what he’s definitely definitely known for uh let’s get into the NFL we have not got a chance to

Discuss NFL today but we had some interesting headlines coming out here over the last 24 hours that have impacted some odds for next team for particular quarterbacks and who would have had this on their 2024 headline bingo card Kelly Chad ooso saying a little birdie told me something about

Russell Wilson going to the Pittsburgh Steelers and now Wilson to go to Pittsburgh is a minus 250 favorite on the odds board right now who had that in their 2024 bingo card uh yeah I think that is the that is the biggest thing before we even talk about betting and

What we what we would bet on and who are we think these guys go just understand that these markets are moving based off of something that I mean I have no idea how tapped in uh the great Chad Johnson Chad ooo are we are we back to Chad

Johnson officially I don’t even know I feel like all these I feel like these guys uh go back after they retire but uh you know I feel like there should be a law where if you change it that aggressively to Something Like O has to stick you’re just not allowed yeah

You’re not allowed to go legally you can do whatever you want but just you know the rule of sports media yeah you can’t do I’m with you on that I agree I sign off on that one but yeah you got I mean Chad ooo talking about this and and

Saying yeah a little birdie told him uh that that he’s connected here to Pittsburgh and boy did we move quick this was like minus 130 goes all the way up to minus 250 for Russell Wilson to be on the Steelers keep in mind still a member uh of the Denver Broncos as of

Right now so next team set at minus 250 I I think that’s the biggest thing that we could point out right away now where does he end up actually Landing could very well be Pittsburgh it absolutely could be it could be Pittsburgh um I don’t know what you think’s going to

Happen this offseason with Denver uh Ben but uh yeah I do expect that he’s going to be somewhere else it just feels very aggressive for that to be minus 250 everything you hear is that even though it’s a giant price tag to eat if you’re Denver they are going to and have to

Move on from him that is my that is all the things I have read and have heard about on this Frontier from the Denver Broncos and the part the part of it too that hardar Kelly is it’s you think about okay what’s going to be the right

Fit it has to be some sort of a roster where not to say they don’t care about the culture right but you know Russell Wilson is a guy who has you know toxic written all over him he’s he’s clearly all the reports have been he’s just been

A oneman wrecking ball in locker rooms stats you know even last year the stats weren’t that bad I me Wilson still finishes a top half of the league starting quarterback his Advanced numbers were you know in some categories top five like in completion percentage over expectation he’s still know able to

Deliver a pretty good ball in the right system when he has time and space to throw it’s just every other intangible his decision-making not really you know looking to freelance on his own not doing the things the coaches want to being a diva in the locker room bringing

In his own guys it leads me to think about the other options here which are you know an old school guy like Antonio Pierce who’s trying to bring back the old school Raider way which is certainly not in any way affiliated with divas yeah Mike Tomlin in Pittsburgh who is

About the the last person you would expect to want to work with Russell Wilson based on all the things that we know about him and that that’s where you start going down the line I would even throw out Atlanta here as a team where the GM is Terry fono longtime Scout and

Assistant GM for the Saints very very tight with Shawn pton you think Terry fono who is very very close with pton is is gonna say oh yeah let me give let me take a chance on this guy let me just assume I can rehab His Image I don’t

Think there’s any way he goes to Atlanta because of that relationship you have to think based on all the negativity that’s come out of that room that Shawn pton telling his pal Terry fno uh yeah stay away with a 10- foot pa okay I think that’s a great point and that makes

Sense I do think though that at Atlanta is talented enough though that they would have to like they have to consider Russell Wilson they have to consider is this guy good enough of a quarterback still that with everything that we’ve got going on here with the weapons that

We have on offense these young weapons that we have on offense with the defense that played as well as they did a year ago can we not consider bringing in a guy who’s won a Super Bowl and it can we punch him in this offense and instantly

This team goes to a NE a Next Level I don’t I’m not saying they will I and I think that’s a great point because that you’re right that might just end conversations right away but I think I while I hope Atlanta goes aggressively after Justin fields and kind of just

Resets this youth movement uh movement there on the offensive side of the ball I think if they think they’re even further ahead than I think they are I think Russell Wilson’s a guy they’re going to consider a little bit more yeah and as much as we talk about fit and

Culture right you’re you’re spot on Kelly that at the end of the day the Personnel is really what matters and it’s a guy who needs to be surrounded by by a team in general who’s got at least a a positive trajectory upward it’s why as much as you wouldn’t think this team

Would really be a fit the team I kept going back to was actually New England where who really knows what that culture is like now that Bill gone and remember New England did do this with with another guy who was viewed to be a problem in the locker room whose stats

Weren’t all that bad but was just sort of uh you Paran some circles in Cam Newton who they went on the back end of his career Newton’s numbers who you talking about Tom Brady Bill b well not exactly those guys look Cam Newton was still 12th in completion percentage over expectation his final

Two years in Carolina but was viewed as a a guy he couldn’t win with and was you know six and 10 his final combined two seasons that started before getting hurt it would make sense at least based on the the history and especially with all the holes New England has to fill on

Offense where we’ll talk about mock drafts in a little bit does New England make that move and then be able to stake their claim to a Marvin Harrison Jr having the number three pick not having to trade draft Capital to get the quarterback they want that would at

Least make sense to me it’s just your your guess as good as mine if Gerard Mayo what his actual perspective on that is as a first-time head coach and team doesn’t even have a GM it’s Elliot Wolf the son of the great Ron wolf who is the

Director of scouting who is the closest thing New England even has to a GM right now yeah I’m with you I think that that situation is probably the most am murky so so probably would be one of the least surprising results of of if yeah if Russell Wilson ended up going

Plus 850 for that outcome how about the guy that is part of a team central to all the NFL draft talk we’ll get into that in a little bit who have the number one overall pick and the decision on what to do with a quarterback in Justin

Fields articles all over the place L you know outlining different potential trades for fields and not only that but also what the number one pick will cost for the Chicago pairs that’s really where the draft will start and end as far as how how the betting goes when we

Get here into the next couple months but as far as Fields you talk about Atlanta Kelly is the favorite right now to go to the Falcons minus 130 and then after that take your take your best guess here and with the new regime led by Raheem Morris the head coach mentioned Terry

Fno the GM is it just Falcons or nobody or or kind of take a random stab here uh at the you know the big Hy stack there Kell or what’s your play I think this one’s tough now when this first opened up in at least Atlanta was at a plus

Price that was interesting to me because I I I do think they’re going to be pretty aggressive go going after uh after Fields here I I yeah we’re going to talk about the draft stuff I don’t know about you I I don’t think we I don’t think we see him going back to

Chicago there I think for a lot of these a lot of these when we talk about them it’s just just teams you can start Crossing off Nam it’s Crossing off the list right like commanders are not going after him like they’re they’re drafting a quarterback um Chicago I don’t think

He’s going back there so I would cross that off I’m not betting that at all uh and like the bronc goes you can’t bet until you know what’s going on with with Russell Wilson right so that’s kind of you kind of got to hit those at the same

Time um this one’s tough I now we’re in minus money I would love to see him in Atlanta though I I I still think Justin Fields could be a successful quarterback in the NFL I am in that camp I just think Chicago has to move on from him uh

Just because the fin the financial situation I think the one to me the one that keeps sticking out on these and all the next team markets that are posted up at DraftKings it’s the Kirk Cousins one that only minus 200 to go back to the Vikings I I just still

I I know there’s some reports going on been circulating here the past couple days of oh there might be some contract issues uh being worked you know trying to figure out getting cousins back I don’t think I I would be shocked if he is not back with the Vikings next year I

I think the only the only part of this you got to be careful with is the fine print of you you know it is where he takes his next snap so I’d be almost more concerned about the injury situation and if he ends up St missing

More games and some you know I don’t know maybe Jared Hall all of a sudden looks like a superstar next year and takes cousin’s job away but I think he’s coming back that’s the one I would actually minus 200 there right now we’ll have more NFL talk coming up because

Draft season is upon us mocks are coming out when we come back in numbers game continues on Von with our pal D cuff next up on the DK Network it is the Dan levitar show