DFS Golf Preview: Mexico Open Fantasy Golf Picks, Data & Strategy for DraftKings

DFS Golf Preview: Mexico Open Fantasy Golf Picks, Data & Strategy for DraftKings. Ben uses the Stokastic PGA DFS data to break down the course, tournament field, and best PGA DFS picks for the Mexico Open 2024.

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00:00 Fantasy Golf Strategy
2:00 Course Preview
4:00 Top Tier
9:15 Mid Range
19:30 Salary Savers

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#MexicoOpen #PGADFS #GolfDFS #Genesis #FantasyGolf

What’s up everybody Ben res here for stochastic talking all things PGA specifically the Mexico open set the tea off on Thursday this is PJ strategy show we’re going to dive into all the plays talk about the course answer hopefully questions that you have and most importantly try to make some money in

This DFS contest there’s a lot of new names a lot of new faces we’re gonna we’re going to go through it together I’m excited to get into this I want to welcome everyone to stochastic right off the bat right off the bat if you’re just joining us for the first time you don’t

Come here often you found the channel hopefully this what you’re looking for if you like what you see hit the like button subscribe to the channel if you’re here all the time welcome back as always I can’t wait to get into this before we dive in the Mexico open let’s

Talk about what we saw just a little last week at the elevated event uh Hideki wow you know I really liked him last week if you follow me on Twitter you knew it was my favorite play I wasn’t alone there it was a really good

Price did I expect him to win not really particularly after his first three rounds he was not in contention really then he went absolutely insan Peak decky Performance really helpful for me hopefully helpful for a lot of you guys we saw some crazy stuff JT awful tiger gets sick speed gets dced

Normally I like to bank some of this information it’s not really relevant because none of these guys are are here the Mexico open is such a different event how many players from the elevated event are even here we’re going to look in just a second but it’s not many uh so

It’s more just let’s just not our te’s or not our eyes cross Ortiz whatever the saying is look back a little bit I really want to just give Hideki a shout out because he deserves it but we’re not taking much of that to this this is the

Time of the year where you’re going to get some weird things from a super strong 70 man field this is 132 players in a very weak field there’s 5K pricing all sorts of stuff let’s get into it right now uh before I even get to the board let’s talk about the course let’s

Talk about where we are in Mexico we are at viant vorta uh I may have butchered that but that’s what I’m calling it we were talking about a course we’ve seen a couple times you can score there’s no doubt about it you can go low par five scoring driving distance

Those are the things you’re going to hear a lot not just from me today you can attack there’s no doubt about it and it’s not just that John ROM and Tony fow have won those are good players really good players they can win anywhere it’s we’ve seen the narrative and we’ve seen

The results from Mostly pure ball Strikers you know cam champ two straight top 10 here Patrick Rogers two straight top 10 here a lot of guys that really can be aggressive with that driver that combination of drive it far make your putts can work here there’s no doubt

About it now do you want great iron sure good scrambling why not of course allaround game always always helps but you’re dealing with a par 71 nearly 7500 yards but again it’s in Mexico I don’t think it’s G to even play that long and you got to attack so birdie your better

Percentage par five scoring things like that are going to make the difference this week I think in minus 20 to 25 under could win it we’ve seen that in the past and that’s what we’re about I think the biggest takeaways though are a different type of field and a different

Type of course if you’re just looking you know if you’re somewhat new to PJ DFS you have to remember how different each course is how different each week is you know if you go from playing austa it and then the next week it’s this weird event or something that it’s

Totally different it’s not there’s so many variables so keep that in mind I’m not reading a ton into last week for a lot of these guys and as I already said there’s not that much to read into because most of them weren’t there but let’s get into the plays let’s start

Talking about actual golfers and we’re going to start of course with the top tier I brought up our stochastic data uh I’ll talk about how to get this in a little bit this is on DraftKings I’ll be using this as my reference point and we start start with $112,000 in Tony

Phenow class of the field betting favorite by a mile he should be he’s going to be extremely popular what’s there to say he just absolutely dominant in his two appearances here how about a T2 and a win um if Tony fow is GNA be everything that

You want and more here he grades out actually pretty favorably even at this nose bleed price tag he’s pushing 35 to 40% ownership these things can update no doubt about it but I think it’s a pretty reasonable ownership here as I filmed this on early Wednesday there’s nothing to say I’m not

Gonna spend a lot of time on Tony feno he fits every build if you have the money go and get him he’s the best player in the field and I think it’s by a pretty significant margin my man Grio is 11,000 let’s just all take a moment

And Savor this because it’s never going to happen again uh he’s not going to be nearly as popular and he shouldn’t be I’m a big Grio guy as we all know and I think he should be pretty expensive but if I had a choice I would go and click

Tony feno as would everybody else I think that is a key Point Rio’s made six straight cuts he’s putting well five of six positive with the uh the flat stick irons are hit and miss around the green is terrible off the te is pretty steady

But it’s not an asset for him so he’s just a play I I kind of have him indifferent now let’s start rattling some guys off so we got hogard thunderbear is here detri is here those are the north of 10K options uh when you look at the leverage score dri grades

Out the worst hogard the best of the three I think I’m in line with that not just because of those scores but I just like uh what hoggard’s been doing he’s been playing well he was second at Farmers really gained he gained across the board there but three and a half

Strokes off the T that is what I’m talking about that is what we want to see and he’s starting to get some experience on tour you know he had some finishes last year that were pretty quality in the themes were weak Fields kind of scoring heavy events he

Was second at corales he was uh 21st at Rocket mortgage where he had really good ball striking actually lost a little with the putter that would have been better 14th at Windom Hoggard is an obvious starting point if you don’t go to fenale uh the the interesting thing

Is if you double click them I’m not sure I’m about that this week you can do it there’s no doubt about it but you’re you’re sucking up a lot of ownership you’re funneling yourself to a specific price point if you click fenale and then hogard you’re left with 68 and change

For the next four again there’s 5K pricing you can absolutely do it but you’re taking two really popular plays and putting them together in a common build I would rather go elsewhere I’d rather have one of them or neither of them in my lineups let’s look at the second part of the top

Tier I guess I can call them we’ve got Hil Jagger Patrick Rogers who I already mentioned Taylor pendrith who is maybe my favorite play I’ll just get that right out there EVR M Hughes and Ryan Fox Target Rich environment I like this quite a bit uh these are good plays

There’s no doubt about that I want to start with Taylor pendrith though this is a guy that I bet if you’re over on the odd Chopper Channel you know this already he was ninth at Farmers he gained across the board seen him he was 15th in Mexico at the worldwide

Technology third at trying gains gains with the uh you know off the tea consistently Taylor pendrith is a good player Taylor pendrith is a guy that I believe is going to win on tour where was he the closest to winning on tour well that would be rocket mortgage

Which I have comped to this that was back a couple years ago but again easy conditions par five scoring gotta go low weak field it sets up perfectly uh and what I just said about him I think you can apply to EVR I think you can apply to a

Lesser extent to Patrick Rogers so if you wanted to start in a more balanced build if you take a couple of them together I’m clicking in right now hendrith and EVR I mean first of all it feels I feel the pain doing this but 77 and change for four spots that’s

Pretty good you have a lot of flexibility you could throw another 9k guy in there you could put a Brandon woo in there you could put a Royo in there uh and you’re still north of seven for your three other names so this is a pretty good spot uh for these guys again

The ownership is not nearly as significant talking about that 10 to 20% range I think for most of them outside McKenzie Hughes as you can see but the 9k range particularly that upper you know 9500 to Flat 10 is is an area that I really like this week I’m gonna start

Some lineups there you can also do a very obvious Tony fow plus one a lot of people are going to do that a lot of people should do that uh it makes a lot of sense um and I like that this week no doubt about it I’m going to scroll down

A little bit uh and we’ll talk about the rest of of kind of the nines the the upper eights kind of going into the mid tier I’m gonna actually declare it you know this week is all the pricing is all messed up I’m gonna declare this the mid

Tier it’s the upper mid-range but whatever it doesn’t matter Brandon woo Mark hubard Davis Thompson Doug gim another player who fits that type of profile Jake knp Cameron Champ Aaron rot Charlie Hoffman Justin Sue lot of different types of players first things that stand out even now the ownership is

Starting to dissipate on a lot of these guys there’s some decent leverage scores out there particularly Brandon will you see that if his ownership comes up and I think it might come up a little we’ll see how much that changes again this is just a guide uh and something that I

Factor in certainly pretty heavily when I’m running the Sims and whatnot we’ll talk about those in a bit but the guy I want to talk about is Doug gim um I had him on the list someone that he’s a dangerous player there uh and he’s starting to show it so Doug game missed

Four straight cuts uh and a pair of them to open 2024 and it was pretty concerning and he comes in 13th at Farmers out of nowhere gains across the board goes to waste management and it’s okay is that a is that an outlier at Farmers or Doug G find something how

About he follows it up with a really nice 12th Place finish at Waste Management more importantly than the Finish Doug gim gained across the board again the game is in solid shape if the putter comes Doug gim’s going to another guy who’s going to win on tour he’s got

The T to Green game off the te is almost automatic great course for him really solid Target Doug gim probably my favorite in the upper 8K range can you go to Davis Thompson sure I don’t know a lot about Jake knp I’ll be honest you know we’ve seen him uh in recent weeks

Talked about him over on aoer golf a little bit the third from Farmers was shocking you know he he was coming off miscut miscut 70th and miscut sometimes that happens I tend to think that that was more of an outlier but he followed up with the 28th at Waste Management the

Problem I have with him is not his game it’s 8700 that’s pretty lofty tag for a guy that I think is pretty unknown youve got cam champ there you know Charlie Hoffman is an enigma he yeah I’m not gonna really go there I don’t have a ton of Interest I

Think Aaron Ry makes sense probably the most popular guy in the range though just because it’s not a super targeted range he’s been back and forth though he hasn’t been playing Great Golf kind of Hit and Miss missed the cut at Waste Management 33rd at Farmers so nothing

Jumps out there and then the last guy we’ve got is Justin Sue putting specialist really good with the putter but he kind of has what I’m talking about in the sense that I’m not saying I want my guy to be bad with the irons but if you look at Justin su’s

Game off the te is pretty solid and he’s an elite putter his short game around the green and his approaches are terrible that’s something you can get away with a little bit also again and um it’s probably because of the the Mexico comp more than anything else but he was

Fourth at worldwide technology uh you know back in the swing season in November 10th at Zozo we have seen him do some things he certainly got it together in 2023 at times I mean this guy made the cut uh in a major he was

Six at the Players he’s a he is a player he can definitely do it it’s just can we crisp up the irons a little and he has to lean on the putter that is no about it but looking at the screen right now from woo down to Justin Sue and Charlie

Hoffman I think I would go Doug gim one uh I probably put Sue to and then I would go Brandon woo 3 I don’t love the price tag but he does great out well I want to monitor that ownership and see what we get there but

This is a pretty good range again it can be your second man in from a f now could be your third or even Fourth Man in and a very balanced book the upper mid-range of course in a field like this still going to have plenty of Target targets

I’m going to continue the mid-range in just a second but I don’t want to bury the lead here you have seen these revamp data tables if I scroll up you know this is part of the stochastic tools and it’s also part of what we’ve got going on

With the Sims content and whatnot you can get just this data you can add it on of course it comes with any Sims package as well you’re going to get Discord no matter what you you purchase I want to make sure people are aware of this so

I’ll bring it up very quickly here the plans there’s all sorts of different plants make sure you go and check out the links below and just see if any of the plans are right for you you know you can do just data you can do data plus

Sims or you can do the Sims Max all three of those are available you also if you say you know what I like this data I want this type of stuff but I’m not ready to commit to a purchase uh I’m gonna go to lineup generator that is

Really our entry way you’re talking about under $10 per week for a tool that will help you build lineups it generates those lineups it gets you Discord it gets you a foot in the door these are the ways to really get involved here at stochastic I really believe the tools I

Use the Sims of course but it doesn’t mean I don’t use lineup generator I’m spinning lineups all the time seeing what comes out seeing what value players uh grade out well so there’s just all these different types of packages make sure you find what works for you uh and

Check those out again it’s there weekly and monthly you’ve got data data in Sims and Sims Max so wanted to make sure you guys were aware of that I couldn’t be more excited about where our golf projections and tools are going now let’s get to the second half of this

Kind of you know again I’m going to call it upper middle whatever whatever you want to label the range you know you’ve got Michael K mavick Maverick might be a mega mind genius play or it could just be a terrible idea Michael Kim eot Kim toasty uh CH Hadley Nasty Nate Vincent

Norman let’s talk about Maverick uh I think I think we have to he’s 8100 I think that’s a pretty reasonable tag sixth at Waste Management gained across the board 39th at Pebble 37th at Farmers before that you could back up basically a full calendar year almost 10

Months before you would find a top 40 finish his game was gone gone hurt you know I don’t know now he’s back he looks pretty good 8100 is a pretty reasonable play uh you’ve got ekro right there this is a guy that’s starting to get some

Real reps on tour flat eight like the price he had made six straight cuts missed at Waste Management it’s G to happen you’re not going to make every cup but he was 37th at Farmers 25th at AMX uh eight at RSM 23rd at the wwt as we talked about uh that that tournament

Another guy that I think would benefit uh from some of these birdie like mentalities where you really need to go low can lean on pretty a pretty well ranc game if you’re going for just give me the off the te Paralis it would be Rio’s fellow countrymen uh the

Argentinian in tosty that guy or tosy whatever his name is we we know who we’re talking about 43rd at Farmers the guy’s automatic off the te the rest of the game doesn’t really translate when he spikes with the putter he does pretty well the irons are not there kind of

Like a Justin Suit in that mind um but I get it I think that’s a pretty pretty decent play actually a guy that I might be able to get over if he’s around 10% I I I’ll be in that range would be my guess I’ll get over on Maverick uh I’ll

Probably get over on Vincent Norman to be honest he’s someone I could see myself getting 105 % of we’ll see what the tools do with him uh I like the game I just don’t know exactly I shouldn’t say I don’t know why the results aren’t there the results are not there he’s had

A terrible starts of the Year 59th miscut 56 miscut he’s lost Strokes putting in all four events he’s gained off the te in three of four he’s gained with the irons in two of four it’s there he just needs to fix the putter you’re not going to be able to compete with

That type of putting a change of surface a weird surface that can only help a guy like Norman don’t want to really over lever myself because he could putt himself out of any tournament but I do like that spot for him I think that’s a pretty reasonable

Target uh as we look but I don’t I want to make sure I get these next couple guys in particularly Johnny Vegas uh Johnny Vegas fits the mold and it’s not just me who’s saying this he’s gonna pick up some steam there’s no doubt about it he grades out really really

Well we’ll see what his leverage comes down to right now he grades out as one of if not the best values on the Slate and I get it this is a guy that was doing nothing he couldn’t make a cut then out of nowhere he plays really really nicely at Waste Management

Finishes in 22nd ball striking was there three and a half off the T nearly four with the irons he didn’t putt at all and he still came in 22nd off the tea is always strong this guy’s multiple winner on tour uh he’s done it easy conditions is

His Jam Johnny Vegas makes a lot of sense I have a feeling he’s going to steam and ownership a little bit we’ll keep an eye on it but he’s checking a lot of boxes I’ve seen his name out there I put the name out there as well I

Think that Vegas uh really grades out well on both sites not just on DraftKings but on FanDuel as well a guy that you want to have in the pool but you also want to be aware that I think you won’t be alone if and when you do

That so you got Johnny Vegas at Mid sevens uh and then the range I think kind of falls off I don’t want to say a cliff because there are names but I’m not super super keen on on honing in on anyone in this 7500 range uh the beautiful thing

You don’t see a single guy over 10% projected ownership got her up I guess in Sam Stevens as I scroll a little bit but they’re just hovering uh flyers in this range for me Grayson Sig Alexander Bor Carson young uh different types of players Bor needs to fix the off the tea

Game but he’s obviously got a lot of experience in Europe I like his game he can get really really hot with the irons Carson young is a name that uh I guess I always say this kind of a passion project I’ve been playing him a little

Bit he’s been making Cuts 17th at AMX 56th at Farmers 41st at Waste Management not bad honestly uh five out of six dating back to last year I think he just continues to churn out not great finishes but good enough finishes uh can he be your fourth or fifth man in in a

Lineup I think so uh I really do and when I look at this as I kind of I’m going to declare this the start of the salary Savers uh for the salary Savers I think a guy like Carson young in a balance build makes a lot of sense

You’re going to be able to get leverage with you know double digit ownership anywhere in there and he’s not in a range with a huge opportunity cost I don’t you know SMY I think is fine spawn Sig I mentioned most people to me are going to gravitate towards that skill

Set stack and I get it and that would be GD her up and Stevens those are the bombers in this range those are the guys we know got her up in particular his off the team metrics jump off the page birdie or better percentage jumps off

The page at times when you’re looking at par five things like that people are going to get to him and I get why he grades out pretty standard uh from what I see I I would like him in the pool I’m not going to over leverage myself with a

Guy like that I think that it’s just an opportunity uh to see what we can get with a guy like got her up um and not go crazy so you’re to round out the sevens again Carson young Bor as a as a wild card Sig and got her up definitely in

The conversation but I don’t think you need to over leverage any of them oh boy now we’re getting somewhere it starts the 6K range and there’s going to be a lot of names down here not a lot of names I feel comfortable with I will say Tyler Duncan talked about him actually

In another video you can check that out right on this very Channel T dunks um you know he he thrives in these type of conditions another guy it’s a theme off the is probably the strongest point he does some things at times 53rd at Waste Management 34th at AMX 65th at Sony

You’re asking these guys to make a cut there’s no doubt about it and if they make a cut can they score Tyler Duncan can score he’s been a showdown play for a lot again these tools support Showdown by the way I wish I mentioned that earlier but all these tools support

Showdown um Tyler Duncan is going to be one of the more popular players in the range but how popular will this range even be I would say pretty unpopular his price on FanDuel as well as very reasonable and now we’re just getting into Flyers uh so I’m going to start

Naming some guys that again I I think are all you’re asking about they’re not going to be popular if you get them right how big is the payoff uh and then how big is the downside well we know the downsides are miscuts but again how much

Do you need to leverage to really get to them a guy like balamaki uh Finnish golfer yeah that’s right um higo these are names that I think I’m going to take some stabs at but I don’t know how you really hone in on any of them a leverage

Off a common build up top you know say you go fow you got Vegas in there and a couple other guys this is the type of guy that could round out the lineup and give it a different flare valaki won in Qatar uh he’s played a couple of events

Here and there he doesn’t have a ton of experience on tour but he’s starting to get those reps and I think his game is pretty well suited actually higo it’s kind of the opposite in some ways he’s been over here he won you know right off the bat now he’s done pretty much

Nothing uh but he comes randomly uh you know for the top of the leaderboard here and there his off the te game isn’t even gaining that much and that’s my biggest concern his irons are straight broken his putter is there so he has one piece of the puzzle he needs

His bombing ability back I still think in a weak field like this higo can grind his way through and lean on that power five scoring I like valaki though uh as that type of flyer I think that when you look at this range T dunks valaki I mean

If you want to go kazy he’s a totally different type of player that’s more of a putting specialist that you hope survives off the tea but higo is right there as well uh this is really the range I’m gonna hope to land my lineups in there’s plenty more golfers to go and

Certainly I’m going to scroll down with you guys just to see what we got going on but I’ll be honest I don’t want to get down into these depths if I can avoid it we’re talking about corn Ferry players we’re talking about huge huge miscut Equity uh and we’re just talking

About guys that we just don’t have a lot of data on in the sense that they either haven’t been playing or they’ve been playing so poorly that they’re not going to grade out uh not that they grade out poorly they just don’t do a lot in terms of distancing themselves from their

Neighbors from Chan Kim to cudy to Davis Riley Ryan Palmer Campo uh Christal Del solar that guy shot like 40 on the corn fery tour over 18 holes to Kim Jong-un style or whatever really really absurd stuff I think here this is where you you have to look price dependent skill set

Dependent even tea time stack dependent uh when I look at these names not a lot of jumps out to me I guess Chan Kim was someone that I did dig into a little bit I saw him at AMX uh then he followed up with a miscut at Farmers but he lost

Nearly five Strokes putting that’s very forgivable uh that’s not easy to do it’s not easy to make a cut when that happens I’m going to try to avoid this range I’m going to be honest again I don’t think you want to go here if you

Don’t need to but you may need to uh you may need to go even lower again we’re just going to keep going we’re gonna we’re gonna look at every name I just don’t have much for you down here I got one name though Matthew neith he’s

6200 I just thought that was a little low um I again pushing three to 5% ownership his leverage score is what caught my eye again the will update but he’s someone that I get the case that they’re making that we’re making at 6,200 uh he’s made actually a big string

Of cuts dating back you’re talking about seven of eight made Cuts now a lot of them result in a 503rd something that’s not really going to help you but four rounds Absol absolutely helps us there’s no doubt about that the irons the ball striking they’re average at best the

Putting is pretty weak the stats are pretty weak in general he’s 6200 uh we’re not going to get everything we want in this range that would be crazy to think that we would it’s a $6,200 golfer uh you’ve got mty Schmid if you’re going pure bombers he’s

Done nothing so far though you’ve got Molinari down here who if you’re just betting on name recognition I get it I get how you could land there but I have no confidence in that Jimmy Stanger is a guy that we saw pop up uh actually pretty recently again

Should be 1% owned these are guys last man into the pool if you’re building a 150 set or something you might get some shares Stanger was 14th at AMX don’t know a lot about him he’s a University of Virginia guy he’s got some Talent there’s no doubt about it we saw him

Certainly more on the corn fery tour and when we did he was popping you know he’s winning events and and boom bust potential but it does seems like a lot of risk he could make the pool I wouldn’t have more than a couple shares though uh and that’s about it man I I

Mean we’re going to look out of respect for these 5K golfers slash it’s really the only time we’ll ever get to do that but I I’m not gonna spend a lot of time on these names I’m just going to scroll through uh Ryan Moore Kevin Chapel my

Man MJ defu who we’ve seen at times Norman Jang the panda CT pan Springer Wilson fur uh now now we’re we’re just we’re just naming names and when I by the way just rattling off those names those were not endorsements those were just me reading uh the the English

Language here don’t don’t play these guys I just think it’s unnecessary you know Martin trainer and lipsky I looked into these guys the only way I would do this as we kind of round this out would be that if you are absolutely in love with a build up top that requires it if

You tell me I I need fee now I need hogard I need pendrith I have to have them I have to have them in the lineup well then you have to find a couple of these guys down here and you’re saying that those three are going to do such heavy lifting that

These guys can grind out a cut outscore their placement points and that’s going to be enough for you I think that’s the recipe that you’re looking for it’s just a very risky risky proposition uh so to close that out and to close this out I wouldn’t go crazy with these names I

Think it’s just a little much uh before I leave you I’ll just quickly bring up FanDuel for you guys just so you can see it um again the beautiful thing about this you can move these columns super easily so if you can say like all right I don’t want to look at standard

Deviation I want to see leverage uh sure boom we do this you can see it you can filter again it’s all there as part of these packages really really think about joining us here at stochastic and when you do do not miss out on our Discord our Discord is there it’s for every

Every single package if you have a DFS subscription you get access to the Discord when you’re in there say what’s up to me I’m always in there answering questions I’m on the betting side a lot as well uh we just love love providing that it’s just a fun Community growing

Quickly of course couldn’t be happier I tried to get through all these names I think we’ve done some pretty damn good work here but as always if there’s a golfer I missed if you have a 2v2 and you’re not using the tools you have a question about the tools or signing up

Or you just want to say what’s up tweet me Jazz rdfs I’m available hanging out talking golf on Twitter all the time no problem whatsoever and really just be part of this community links are below check them out and again if you have any questions just let us know here at

Stochastic I’m gonna bounce on out of here Mexico open I’m Gonna Leave You with this Taylor pendrith I like that name and I like that spot for him I hope he can give feno a run for his money here I would love to see it for all of

You guys enjoy the tournament let’s make some money and when you do make sure you you send those screenshots we want to celebrate together here at stochastic enjoy the Mexico open thanks for stopping by and I’ll see you next week