The BeatinTheBookie Show: The Mexico Open (02/20/2024)

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What’s going on everybody Welcome to the beat the bookie show today is Tuesday February the 20th we are on the cusp of the Mexico open down at vidon down in Mexico and man it’s gonna be a different week this week we don’t have John Ram in

The field you know last year all all everybody’s talking about is how low is John Ram gonna go how bad’s he gonna beat everybody else um this year you know what’s the what’s the word on the street for the for the tournament this year Rob Puerto Viera so this is a fun

Ation for the PGA players as you know guys can have some fun in Porto via that’s very beautiful nice course um the resort they have this on actually I’ve been there it’s very nice um so it’s a nice vacation so I can see why Tony fenel wants to go down annually take his

Family and stuff um it’s a very nice course and uh you know they lengthened it a few years ago by like uh 150 yards I think so they could host some PGA events um and they done a good job I mean it’s it’s been a score Fest the

Last few years um but it’s definitely a great tournament and uh like we’ve seen two of the best golfers John Romy and Tony Fina win it the past couple of years and um it’s a it’s a fun tournament uh it’s a bombers bombers Paradise as they say um so it favors

Guys who are good off the tea and we see guys do good in this tournament whereas they don’t really do well in like a lot of PGA events on like the mainland for example so I think there’s a lot of value on the odds this week and um when the

Tournament first came out I wasn’t sure last week if I really wanted to do it because golf gets kind of a grind to do every week but I looked over last year’s results and um I love this course you know there’s a lot of value on guys top

20s so hoping we can get a some nice cashes I like a few outrights also from some dogs so I think it’s going to be a fun tournament and I’m looking forward to it yeah man looking forward to it for sure you know the the field is not as

It’s a little bit more lackluster than last week at the Genesis but you know these guys are the best golfers in the world it’s gonna be it’s going to be an incredible field an incredible tournament as always if I had to guess I hope it comes down to the wire like he

Did last year um I think it’s gonna be good um let’s go ahead dive into some of the odds you know we’ve got you know winners first round leaders and whatnot what are some of their jumping out to you for the uh for the outright leader

Well we did get I just did talk about Patrick kley last week uh on the uh pod for the first round leader unfortunately I didn’t play him uh individually myself on the client card but a lot of people messaged me said they listened to this

Show and they played him off the show so congrats the guys who cashed and then congrats those who cashed Matt siyama last week like 150 to one heading into the final round some pretty sweet tickets um this week we’ve got you know Tony FAL the outright you know leader

Plus 800 Nikolai hog hogard plus 1600 Steven Jagger plus 2200 Keith Mitchell 22 to1 Thomas dietry 25 to1 em Emiliano gillo 25 to1 Taylor pendrith who a lot of people are high on 25 to one um Patrick Rogers 35 to1 Eric Van Ruan 35 to one and down the list

That’s about as far as we’ll go down but um certainly not a deep I mean there’s a lot of good golfers here there’s no it’s not a St studded field I guess is right is it’s definitely not a star sided field it’s probably one of the weaker Fields we’ll

See on tour this week I mean sorry this season but it’ll still be a quality event I mean the scenery here is great so U I always like those events that are like around the beach area you know so there’s lot there’s lots of goodlooking scenery and stuff like that so um it’ll

Be a pretty enjoyable event this event actually have a they have like a um like a zip line kind of that goes around the course um with the like the ski lifts kind of oh yeah yeah um so it takes people all around so you you know a guy

Will be golfing you’ll randomly see like a like a ski lift going by in the back with people riding on so um it’s an interesting tournament at a tournament on State Side interesting tournament and like I said we’ve got Tony fenale um as the favorite and Tony he won this last

Year he got second in 2022 so obviously his track record for this course is spectacular um but he’s the the dead nuts favorite right so um aside from Tony you know where you gonna go from there not getting much value on Tony F now you’re not and then you got Thomas

Dietry sorry you got em Emanuel Emil o gillo who got fifth place here last year um he’s coming in you know having a decent season so far he’s got two top 20 is a 22nd and he finished 44th at the Genesis um and then you talked about Patrick Rogers he’s got 10th Place

Finish here the last two years uh he’s kind of having a tough season he got ninth the farmers 79th at Pebble Beach and he missed a cut at the Genesis uh but you know for this course if you’re looking for a golfer to play I really suggest throwing out

Any of The Season’s results that you’ve seen so far right we’ve had like five tournaments um don’t look at a guy this is like a horses for courses kind of place so don’t look for what a guy’s done this season um if a guy has had a

Bad start to the season don’t get dissuaded from playing him here because uh this is a course where you know a lot of guys historically break out of their Funk and play well uh for example Cameron Champ right um I’m high on Cameron Champ here um he’s missed the

Cut all three events this season right he’s having a uh you know in all accounts a terrible season obviously he’s missed three cuts out of three events but he did get eighth here last year six the year before and like I said this course favors the drivers and

Cameron he’s second off the te uh for strokes gain off the T so um he’s one of the best drivers on tour um so here if you’re one of the best drivers and you have a decent iron game it almost doesn’t really even matter how your putting game is right you’re going to

Play well here so I like Cameron Champ here um I think there’s a lot of value for him especially for top 20 even top 40 like you said like minus 140 Top 40 for top 40 his track record here is spectacular um so I’ll be taking a look

At that but um this is a week where you have to get down on the weeds and find some golfers with the you know the lesser names and uh you know if you look at Cameron Champ’s track record his career if you look at his victories throughout his career uh they’ve come

Seemingly out of nowhere right like he’s been playing terrible and then he just wins an event so um if there’s one place where that could happen I definitely think it’s here in Mexico so I’m definitely high on Cameron Champ this week yeah Cameron Champ Rogers you know

You touched on a little bit there we were talk a little bit little bit before the show you know he’s had back-to-back top 10 finishes here um he’s had started off season with two top 25s uh believe he had a 70th or 79th um at Pebble Beach

And then miss the cut at the Genesis we also got a top 10 at the farmers um Patrick Rogers man he is he has had my eye all week U minus 110 for top 40 I think there’s Great Value there especially with it like you said discour

Track record it plays such a big part um when you’re capping it I mean I love Patrick Rogers top 40 this week minus 110 I think you’re getting great value for a guy that’s got a proven track record the scores I love it yeah I mean and Patrick Rogers when

He gets hot he’s very streaky um throughout his career so uh Patrick Rogers will definitely be one of the the most bet guys this week um so like I said you want to look for a guy this week who is you know very good off the tea obviously and John ROM

Tony Fina the two pass winners they’re both great off the tea um so you know if you’re going to bet a guy here look for a guy who’s in the top 20 top 25 off the te um putting doesn’t really matter as much here um and that’s especially good

For a guy like Tony fow right now like Tony fow’s eighth off the te right now he’s first on Strokes G on the approach and then he’s 106th in the PJ right now in putting um so this is good news for a guy like Tony F who’s been struggling with the putter

Coming into here um you know maybe he can you know you know string something together and come out with a uh you know a back-to-back Victory but yeah guys make sure you know first and foremost if if you’re looking at any models um look for a guy who’s uh who’s

Good off the tea um in the past I’ve used data golf a lot for golf um but I talked to you know a few friends called me and um they they started this site called betth number Golf and um I’ve been using it this season I like it much

Better than data Golf and um it works very well so dat golf man been a staple forever so what what was the name of that one again it’s called bet the number golf bet the number bet the number golf it’s uh it’s much simpler uh to look at than uh you know

Data golf it’s not really as confusing um but they have a uh you know they they have a partnership with PJ shot shotlink um so oh yeah this the it’s in beta I think it’s in beta it’s it’s still rolling out eventually I’ll have like a sign up code to give up give

People so they can get a discount but that’s what I’ve been using for this season um so yeah I mean some other golfers you know we obviously you know just because Tony F’s plus 800 I’m not gonna not take him right I’m gonna try

To get the best number I can on Tony and with his track record I mean it’s hard to pass him up here even at plus 800 pretty difficult um cuz he’s much Tony is in a much uh different class than you know the rest of these golfers here right um so I’ll definitely

Still play Tony at plus 800 probably for like a unit um and then like I said I’m going to go down and find some drivers you know the Cameron Champs um the you know Brandon woo um let me look at Brandon woo Brandon woo uh he’s 45 to one here on

DraftKings um he’s got third place and a second place his last two years here um so he’s finishing just behind John Ramen just behind Tony Fina the last couple years uh he plays this course almost better than anybody I mean I believe last year a couple years ago he had a

Chance to win but he kind of fell upart at the end um but obviously with his track record that’s a t that’s a guy who’s tough to pass off so 45 to one there um for Brandon Brandon what you might want to take a look at yeah it’s

Got a ton of value it does there’s a lot of golfers here like with a lot of value and um you know like like I said the guy I really like for a top 40 finish if you have that is uh is Cameron Champ um and then you know for for first round

Leaders um probably you know look at some of the usual suspects right I’m probably take a look at Tony Fen now um he’s end of round one leader Plus 2200 he has plus 2200 and uh you know Keith Mitchell um when he’s when he’s hitting that driver well um you know

He’s one of the best on tour with those irons U so if Keith Mitchell can really come into his game here I think you know he’s got potential to win it and remember like I said this is a course where you know don’t worry about how they’ve started the season right this is

A place where guys can get their game right um you know you got McKenzie Hughes um you know who watched Nick Taylor WI a couple weeks ago at the uh you know the waste management so uh you got you know a lot of guys here who are

Capable of winning uh for first round leader yeah probably you know sprinkle Tony fenale Keith Mitchell um and then a guy that I take a lot for first round leader in some of these uh easier courses is Jonathan Vegas yeah Johnny Vegas Vegas man um he’s 60 to one

At DraftKings so I’ve got I’ve got one that I’ve that I’ve dabbled across here or stumbled across here end of round top five end of first round top five F now sitting at 5,500 plus 5500 I mean last year he started this tournament out with a 6

Yeah 5500 top five end of round one you mean plus 550 Plus 550 yeah plus 550 I mean that’s unbelievable value I feel like I do like some of 500 that would be slam it slam it slam it but no my bad yeah I do like some of these top five

Finish you know after round one uh the only thing you gota you gotta watch out for is these stupid Dead Heat rules that DraftKings does you know uh which I hate but yeah Tony finina plus 550 top five finish round one I mean that looks pretty good to me

Um because you know you’re getting pretty good value there even if they don’t win so that is a pretty solid bet so I do like that also so that’s a good call uh from you there and you got Charlie Hoffman coming in here um streaking man start he is he you know he

He nearly won the waste management and uh he played well last week I mean he came out hot last week uh he did make C I think he got 50th place last week um so you know Charlie playing back to back to back tournaments uh not sure if he’s tired or not but

Um um but yeah he might be worth a you know a top top 20 top 20 sprinkle um because he’s one of those guys where uh we’re talking about driving distance he had the longest drive of the waste management right by like 12 yards or something like that and that was on

Whole 72 right so um he’s definitely capable um so yeah it’s going to be a it’s going to be an interesting tournament kind of a laidback atmosphere um not not a lot of pressure on guys here um so I think it’s I agree laidback you know your your family’s on

Vacation while you’re out playing you’re going to eat dinner with them nice Beach vacation I’m sure it’s awesome I’ve got a match up I mean I saw this earlier old fenale man versus tournament matchup versus hogard minus 150 hogard was 33rd last last year at the Mexico open he’s played all right

This season I mean I like fenale obviously I like his game a lot more than hogard um but for some value there minus 150 on the matchup for the tournament I like that play a lot yeah um hogard is very streaky so I mean he can get hot um so um but

Obviously I do f fale in that matchup um if I was to give out one matchup from from this uh from this list I’d give out Patrick Rogers over Davis Thompson Patrick Rogers minus 120 like we said his his track record here with the you know backtack top 10 here

Um that’s a uh a hores for courses event right there right so Patrick Rogers he likes this course and uh I’ll take him minus 120 over Davis Thompson for sure so um that’s one matchup that I would play for tourn tournament matchups so you guys can play that for a free

Play I like it I like it and uh you know we’re gonna keep this week nice and short you know short and sweet because it’s a uh you know lesser tournament but like I said if you guys are want to throw three bullets on people to win

This week I’m a go Tony fenale plus 800 I would go Cameron Champ and Cameron Champ is 50 to one and I would go Brandon woo maybe 45 to one Brandon woo but but keep in mind there’s been a lot of long shot winners on the tour

This year and um we could easily see a guy along shot winning on this course oh yeah um take a look at a a guy who’s been playing you know decent as of late uh Andrew Novak he got eighth place at the waste management he’s a big Miami

Hurricanes fan he goes on the podcast I go on my friends play golf with him he’s 110 to one to win um that’s a that’s a guy who for first round leader you also want to take a look at uh because he’s hit first round leader quite a few times

Um so that’s that’s uh Andrew Novak he got 49th here last year and he got 15th in 2022 you could probably get a you know good value on him for a top 20 um and I’ve seen a lot of people talk about Harry Hall um he’s one of the best Putters on

This type of grass pass bam or whatever um and you know if he is sitting his driver straight U he’s 65th on tour right now um Strokes G off the te and if he’s hitting his driver straight he could work his way into a uh a top 20 finish

He’s uh finished here the last well he played last year he got a top 10 finish um so he’s definitely familiar with the course um so you know if you want to go all the way down the list you know Andrew Novak Harry Hall 110 to one uh just for

A you know sprinkle maybe like a lunch lunch money or something like that and um I I did say uh Brandon woo not Dylan woo so yes make sure make sure you play the right woo um but yeah like we’ve got a it’s gonna be a fun tournament and U you know

Hopefully we can maximize some profits this week but um let’s not over Complicated by you talking about a million things but uh those are just a few of the plays we like so my matchup like I said I like Patrick Rogers minus 120 over Davis Thompson and you like uh

Match up I like fenale over hogard I also like Patrick Rogers top 40 minus 110 and I like fenale top five at the end of round one plus 550 those are my uh my go-to for this week yeah and if you can play top 40s I would definitely

I would definitely recommend um Cameron Champ minus 140 for a top 40 finish I’d play that for like two three units cuz I think that’s pretty much a lock um you can throw out his recent form because like I said that means nothing for him coming into this tournament I think this

Is a place where Cameron comes in knowing like listen I’ve suck to start this season but look at my track record here I’ve got two top 10 here in two years and play this course very well so this is the place where I can get my

Gear back my game back in gear and um I think this is the place where he does it so I’d play like Cameron Champ for two three units top 40 minus 140 love it so GNA be an exciting tournament this week again the Mexico open down at valant is

That how you say it valant vant the the package will be out the Wednesday Wednesday around 6 pm and then we’ll we we’ll roll the plays out you know through the next few hours after that time but it’s going to be a fun tournament we’ve done well here the last

Couple years um we had John to win a couple years ago or was it last year I get confused but um it’s going to be a uh it’s GNA be a fun event so I’m looking forward to it so I hope you guys join me um hopefully we have an outright

Winner to uh add to our tally yeah hopefully it’s one of those plus one plus 100 or 100 to one guys that’d be sick some good clips for the Tik Tok off off off one of those winners yeah I mean what we saw last week with mat suama 1 going going into

The fourth round um that’s super rare it reminds me of one Justin Thomas came back and won I think it was the PJ Championship um but yeah Matt suyama I just I I had looked on the list of you know plays last week and it wasn’t even

Guy you know I talked about we play I played him to win the uh the waste management but he just hasn’t been healthy uh he hasn’t been able to string together a really good good run it’s tough we we saw him do that last week and you know I’m happy for the

Guy because he’s he’s a really nice guy U I do like him he’s like I think he’s still 42 to one at the Masters right now so I’m gonna play that I can’t wait for the Masters man let’s go it’s gonna be I played him uh to win The Masters 42 to1

So you guys might want to take a look at that also but um Hope you join us for this week’s tournament and um we will see you guys next week yep see you guys next week beat the bookie.com get the packages and uh we’ll see you guys later