Mexico Open | Fantasy Golf Preview & Picks, Sleepers, Data – DFS Golf & DraftKings

The TOUR heads to Vidanta Vallarta in Vallarta, Mexico for the Mexico Open . Rick uses data to breakdown the courses, field and much more!

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SHOW INDEX
0:00 Intro
0:33 Course Preview
7:52 10K Range
17:39 9K Range
22:40 8K Range
28:07 7K Range
31:12 6K Range
37:14 Custom Model
40:37 Outro
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What’s up guys Rick here with your preview for this week’s Mexico open and let’s just cut to the chase it’s probably going to be one of the weakest Fields we’ve seen in a long time but here’s the best part someone’s going to win it someone is going to be in the

Optimal lineup there’s going to be six guys in the optimal lineup Sports books are going to pay out the money you get is going to be green and it is going to be accepted anywhere you want to spend it so we are going to treat this week

Like every other week we’re going to go through the data we’re going to go through the information and we can see what we find let’s do it all right this is my website rickun good.com everything you see from here on out will be there on my site this is the new course key

Stats just added some new stuff to it Vidant Vara so this is uh a new golf course to the PGA Tour this event the Mexico open has been around for a very long time 60 70 years some you know this is the national championship for Mexico and starting in the early 2000s it’s

Started to get you know sanctioned on PGA Tour Latino America and then you saw it on the corn fairy tour and then it was like co-sanctioned at one point and then finally two years ago it became a PGA Tour event they moved it to to Vidant viarta and that’s where we are

Again this year so there are only two previous years worth of data for this event the winners have been the favorites Tony fow John ROM those are your winners over the last two years if you look at this golf course from a statistical standpoint you can go read

My stat preview on Rick rung good.com right now it’s a par 71 7400 yards and it generally rewards distance and approach play uh and there’s a couple of reasons for that and again you know take this for what it’s worth the these are the numbers this is the math this is not

As strong of a correlation as we would get for other events because we only have two years worth of data however um if you look at the eye test right the the guys that have finished let’s call inside the top 10 in each of the last

Two years believe it or not there’s like five guys who have finished inside the top 10 both years it’s like ra or it’s like fenale uh Ron might have done it but he’s not in the field this week it’s fenale I think Patrick Rogers cam champ

Uh Brandon woo has one top 10 there’s somebody else that I’m missing but it’s like very very strong course history again only 2 years um so the bombers make sense because you’re going to hit a lot of approaches from farther out than most other golf courses so let me go

Down a little bit here and show you the the proximity buckets well over PGA Tour average on shots from 200 yards and out in fact it is uh the highest rate on the PGA tour well over the PGA Tour average from 175 to 200 and then everything else

With inside of that 175 and in below tour average you know there are there’s like no approach shots within 100 yards I’m I’m exaggerating but it’s the lowest rate on the PGA tour so distance comes into play Not only on uh the t-shots but definitely on those second shots going

Back up here what you’ll notice and because we only have two years worth of data I like to look at both the the the the radar chart and also the table on the left that shows all the stats even if they are good wonky or whatever so

Approach play on the radar chart very highly correlated to success as it is in terms of value every single week but this week it means there’s only 12 other courses in which uh Strokes gained approach is more closely correlated to success than here at V Vidant viarta if

You look at the other stats on the leftand side you will notice a ton of approach stats I’m not and and these are these are all in their own way a little bit wonky right to say that approaches from 75 to 100 yards in the rough is the

Most important stat this week that’s crazy right that that that’s that’s craziness but it is statistically more correlated to success here than any other Golf Course again I wouldn’t care about that that’s a wonky stat it’s a very small sample size it means probably nothing but stat number two is proximity

To hole and Stat three is 50 to 125 yards from the rough and Stat four is 175 to 200 and Stat five is 200 to 225 in fact the first eight or so highest ranked stats are all approach stats I think it’s nine of the first 11 are all

Approach stats consecutive green and regulation uh Fairway proximity left R left rough proximity rough proximity right rough proximity right these are all by themselves not great stats espec especially with the sample size that we’re working with but putting them all together with the approach Strokes gain

Approach rank of the radar chart tells a very clear story it is approach play in where you separate yourself and I think approach play plus distance because of the the distances that those shots are going to be coming from um when we run the model later in the show we will put

A heavy emphasis on not only distance not only approach play but approaches from 150 to 175 or excuse me 175 to 200 200 and out we will we will’ll use a lot of that for this week um if you look at the adjusted fit so last 36 rounds and

You can adjust this for anything that you want if you want to go last 24 rounds or last 30 rounds or whatever you can see the way that these stats then line up with the way that these players are playing and who gets the best adjusted fit in that situation so um you

Know guys that get a really good adjusted fit here Nikolai hoard Eric Van royan Tony fow Aaron Ry Taylor pendrith uh what do they all have in common well hoard fow pendrith are all big hitters um Aaron Ry solid approach player uh Michael Kim has been great on approach

In his last 24 he’s $8,200 so you can see Brandon woo so again this is this is different than course history you don’t need to have any history to have course fit and Brandon woo has a great course fit he’s played well here before Tony fow great course fit he’s obviously

Played well here in the past so um I love it when those two things align and you can kind of adjust what’s most important to you to see who gets those those best fits um let’s see what else we have this is new as well this putting

Boost uh stat that I put on here so basically it looks at where the uh birdie opportunities are coming from what distances they’re coming from and how that compares to the PGA Tour um from 4 to 8T Vidant viarta is is right on tour average from 9 to 15 ft there

Are fewer uh looks uh there for birdies than tour average uh fewer as well from 16 to 26 and basically average from 27 to 36 so we skew a little bit longer in terms of Birdie opportunities so knowing that uh I take those metrics look at what everyone’s expected uh putting

Numbers are from those ranges and I can assign a putting boost to these golfers now the guys with good enough sample sizes who get a boost here Keith Mitchell gets a boost brt sneaker MAV mcney sh Kim so on and so forth you’re you’re watching as well hoard’s uh

Putting boost is pretty good as far as guys that get um a good adjusted fit number get a good putting boost have been playing well we’ll obviously talk a lot about Nikolai hyart okay let’s head over to the cheat sheet here and I want to point out a couple of items first and

Formost we are seeing a little bit of a wider range in the pricing so Tony phenow is is 12,000 we’ve gotten close to $112,000 uh recently but it’s it’s kind of rare rarified air for for DraftKings to actually go there they’ve done it here that that’s fine and the other

Thing is if you scroll all the way down uh the minimum price this week is $5,000 and there are a ton of golfers there are 51 golfers between $5,900 and $55,000 which which is obviously quite rare I like this I I wish this was more common practice I like the idea of um

It’s not necessarily softer pricing like you’ll see at major championships although I I guess I guess that’s true but it it allows for you know more decisions to be made and it doesn’t just drop everybody in at at 6,000 and and whatnot so um I like this but I thought

It was worth pointing out so let’s look at the top here five guys over $10,000 we already mentioned F now at 12 guo at 111 hoard at 107 thorbjorn olison at 103 and then Thomas dri at 101 uh not normally names that we see up in up in

This area so let’s let’s start with FAL here we’ll do a deep dive on him he’s got the best record at this golf course and he is uh the class the classiest player so to speak in this field oh boy this is going to be the toughest decision this week um there’s a

Reason he’s like six to1 to win this he has a great course fit he has great course history etc etc I do not love what I’ve seen from him uh both in the statistical stat profile the statistical stat profile and the eye test his putting is horrendous he has lost

Multiple Strokes with the flat stick in like eight of his last nine the short ones are a problem um he’s still good enough from T to Green to finish t19 at Riviera and T6 at Farmers those are two uh good golf courses for him but th this

Is a little bit worrisome to me I want to also go back and look at how he was playing uh leading into Mexico the last couple of years okay so here’s here’s his win at Mexico and leading in okay a lot of you know a lot of top 25 finishes

You know he finished T9 at Farmers that year 14 in Phoenix T20 at the Genesis I guess this is uh I guess they move this up in the schedule right what used to be in this schedule spot I don’t remember but but this would be earlier because

They played this in what end of April last year is that right anyway um so you know he is looking exactly the same and ball striking and he’s putting a little bit better right he’s he’s got basically an even number of positive weeks and uh losing weeks and the ones that he loses

Are at least uh smaller losses than what we’re getting into now let’s go back one more year and see what he was doing prior to Mexico in what would that have been 2022 I think he finished second to ROM right yeah here’s T2 so yeah again this was

Later in the schedule it was after the Masters so he he was a positive putter at the Masters positive at Valero positive at the match play so he was gaining putting three straight events before he gets to Mexico he loses Two Strokes putting and still finishes second so I

I’m I’m probably G to have maybe I’ll match the field maybe I’ll be a little bit less a little little underweight on Tony F now I would I would be a little bit I’d be worried about playing him in um you know single entry lineups with this with this puttings thing we will

Find out and know more on Wednesday when we have like the projected ownership the live chat 3M Eastern Rick run good YouTube channel um we’ll know more and that might help make this decision a little bit easier on on phenow but man that’s my my heart says says that’s a

Little bit scary Amano gillo is next and he didn’t play particularly well at the Genesis he finished t-44 he made the cut and that was about it he lost six Strokes from Tia green all of that and then some coming in round three he was able to rebound he gained a stroke from

Tia green on Sunday played by himself on Sunday and then he you know his starts before that were four straight top 25 finishes with a t7 at Sony so I actually believe he’s playing better than even like that t44 would indicate what I find most interesting in about guo is one

He’s putting a lot better now right he’s been the captain of Team No putt for a really long time in 2024 he’s only lost Strokes putting once and that was in Phoenix that that’s a very very good sign the other thing is um he’s never lost Strokes putting here and in fact

He’s got two really good performances 2.7 Strokes gain putting in 2022 4.5 in 2023 the only place he’s lost in each of those years is around the grid green and it’s a t33 and a T5 I am very interested to see what the industry does here I

Think there will be enough people who go to Fen now enough who like hoard and I like hoard as well to pass up on an $1,100 Amano gillo that’s got to be like the most expensive he’s ever been It Is by $1,000 or sorry at least in the last

Three years let’s see has he ever been over 101 okay he was $10,600 at the at the Puerto Rico open in 2021 he finished T1 so we are we are $500 more expensive um than he has ever been which I think will scare people off a little bit and probably leaves him a

Little bit under owned I’m okay going there the Hoy guard stuff is exciting I I mean I think he’s I think that’s why Nikolai is going to capture a lot of ownership here he’s played this event so he did play it last year he finished

33rd the uh the model of being a a long strong driver who can hit his approaches well fits Nico go Li t39 at the at Riv t31 at Pebble Beach proam and then he had that runner up at the farmers the obviously there are a ton of differences

Between the South course at Tory pins and Vidant viarta but uh lots of long shots distance mattering um that that type of mold is enough that gets me excited about Nikolai now I think he’s I think he’s going to be popular in general I think I think it’s going to be him I

Think it’s going to be fow out of this 10K range when we start getting into some of these other names like uh Thor BN olison Thomas dietre I do like to use the weighted Strokes gain so I get this question a lot like Rick when’s when is

There a good time to use the weighted Strokes gained instead of the the raw Strokes gained uh this would be a good time right we are getting a convergence of guys who play on the PGA tour on the corn fairy tour maybe on the DP World Tour maybe they’re coming up you know

Whatever and we’ve got to start figuring out a way to differentiate between these golfers so raw Strokes gained last 36 rounds the best player in this field is Thor BJ olison he’s gained two strokes per round I don’t know what the answer is but I’m going to click weighted

Strokes gained and we’ll see where he’s at in the last 36 he is 83 he’s 27th okay so that is why this is a really good week to I mean every week’s a good week to use the weighted stuff but this is a really good one so we go from first

In the field in raw Strokes gain to 27th in weighted Strokes gain Thomas dietre goes from 26th to 9th he actually gets a boost in weighted Strokes gained okay um so when we’re trying to decide between these lesser known entities I really like the way that Strokes gained now despite getting knocked down

In the uh weighted numbers let’s look a little bit closer at these two olison and dietr so rickun good.com I I tracked six tours with Strokes gain metrics I’ve got I’ve got all the data right so if you’re not looking at it at if you’re only looking at PGA Tour data the last

Thing that you have for thorbjorn Olsen is the Open Championship and since then he has piled up top 10 finishes he just won the Raz Al Kima Championship I believe I pronounced that correctly and gained 20 Strokes to the field that week yeah it was it was it was Splendid stuff

So here’s here’s what we’ve got olison is uh he gets the knock and weight his Strokes gain stuff because he doesn’t play because he plays primarily on the DP World Tour but his approach numbers are far superior to that of Thomas dietry now dietre plays on the PGA tour

But it is not great to see him lose uh Strokes on approach in three straight starts he’s normally better than that and he’s a very sound putter so how are we you know we’re splitting hairs here I think for this week where I’m putting such a big

Emphasis on approach play if you like the shorter term uh short-term approach play Then Olson’s probably your guy if you don’t mind going longer out for the approach play dietre improves himself he drives it better and and and putts well so I think that’s going to be a really interesting

Conversation what what Happ happens at the bottom of the 10K range I also don’t think anybody wants to pay over $10,000 for thorbjorn or for Thomas dietre so I I think that that is going to be a really interesting opportunity we’ll see what the industry does on Wednesday the

9k range has you know some guys that that people like to play Keith Mitchell $99,900 he didn’t play at Riviera Patrick Rogers 97 back-to-back top 10 finishes missed the cut at Riv um we’ve got those oh oh Brandon woo does have two top fives here a second and a third

I think earlier I might have said it was just one year but it is it is both years he’s $9,100 when you look at course fit Taylor pendrith 9600 I I want to dive into him he has not played since Tory Pon and Tory Pines he finished T9 and was gaining across

The board drove it well that’s to be expected he’s a long iron player he’s a little bit more volatile than I would like I mean look at his last handful of finishes 3rd 15th 8th miscut 10th miscut 9th and we haven’t seen him people might

Opt for Mark Hub they might opt for Eric Van royan whatever else pendrith might be my favorite it’s early in the week but he might be my favorite Rio Heats n is the way I’m going with that these days miss the cut in Phoenix that was

His first miscut since the Irish open uh maybe BMW PGA Championship in September but it was piling up all those really good finishes was playing well on the PGA tour I don’t think anybody’s going to play this guy right you know the the miscut the shiny new the shine of of of

Rio has has uh what rusted worn off I don’t know what does shine do uh clouded something like that I’ll be interested to see what happens there but let me show you uh and this includes the conversation with with heatz this is the weighted Strokes game numbers for the 9k ring

So the the big guys here are EVR 1.48 in the last 36 uh he SATs 136 hubard at9 so we probably need to do a deep dive on on Mark hubard because he’s going to get a big boost in the weighted numbers because he plays on the PJ tour

And because he’s got some good results here yeah fourth at Pebble Beach 20th at Farmers where he gained 9.6 Strokes uh ball striking he is capable of doing that six on Approach at Sanderson eight on Approach at the farmer these are these are Big Numbers he obviously

Doesn’t do it every week if he did it every week he’d be Colin moow or will zuris or whatever right so um this is a little bit of a more high-risk High reward spot I think he’s just as likely to finish 57th as he is to finish fifth

So if that’s what you’re looking for hubard does offer an interesting little little nugget I do want to show you before I forget uh let me do I want to do this Fe Feld at this course so here’s the Holy Grail everybody in this field uh and their results at this golf course

So yeah there’s there’s Brandon woo and Tony fow at the top that’s that’s no surprise there the the best player in the 9k range is Patrick Rogers 2.3 Strokes gained per round over eight rounds two 10th Place finishes notice kind of the the Gap though there’s not a

Lot of guys in the 9k range Stephen jger 9800 gained eight Strokes on approach here last year and lost Strokes putting has back-to-back top 20s that might not be bad people kind of forget how good Jagger’s been I wouldn’t mind that one single bit look at the rest of the

Course history we’re going to get to cam Champ here in a second he’s $8,600 um just gains a ton of Strokes off the te here he’s so long there’s not a huge penalty for missing the Fairway he’s I think I I believe he’s kind of a

Coarse horse right we see him show up uh here where another good spot for Farmers am I making that up or did I did I know that um $8,600 feels like a a little bit too much for for that especially with the small amount of data but uh he’s a

Good option in the 8K range we can get down to the 8K range here before we do that I want to give a shout out to um ingv 14 who won our Splash contest our little listener League contest last week for $810 had this lineup can’t let Burns

Eric Cole Adam Scott cam young Jason day it’s tiers so you can only pick one from each tier that was 51 underpar well done want him 8810 bucks uh the contest for this week is again guaranteed and it’s already up there’s already it’s about 10% full and I am just looking at this

For the first time so $20 entry guaranteed payouts um first place will be $720 it’s fun go get involved you’re going over there to make your uh make your one andone selection anyway might as well play this even if you’re not in the one and done you can still play this

There’s a link in the description you can sign up and get access to to that as well it’s legal in 40 41 States something like that fully regulated all that good stuff okay here’s that 8K range and if you’ve been following me um you probably know where I’m going here

So first off before we move on cam champ with course history for consecutive Mis Cuts I’m a recent form guy cam champ is kind of the exception to the rule because he can play well without any form although he usually does provide one little breadcrumb of playing well

Before he before he pops off but probably not for me so if you follow along you probably know where I’m going here um Davis Thompson coming off the 15th in Phoenix is exciting he gains a half a stroke per round on approach in his last 36 rounds has never played here

However Jake nap let’s do the nap stuff so what he did at Tory Pines was was it at Tor yeah it was at Tori where he gained across the board in all three of those measured rounds was awesome and we were wondering if he was going to be

Able to keep that going now gaining in all four rounds is impossible to do every every or excuse me in all four categories every round is impossible to do he did it again in round number one right I mean so so he has basically done that accomplished that feat more often

Than anybody else on the PGA tour and this in 2024 and uh he did a in in four straight rounds it’s it’s it’s really crazy um obviously cooled off a little bit but it was still a T28 at the Phoenix Open which is a much stronger

Field than what he’s going to have this year so now you’ve got a third and a 28th in his last two starts I believe in the talent of this kid he’s not really a kid he’s 29 years old but um I I believe in that so

$8,700 yeah you can you can sign me up the thing uh the other thing I mean there’s a lot of good options in the top of this 8K range Doug gim historically a very good approach player very good uh ball Striker he is starting I believe to

Putt much better and of those other guys that I just mentioned he has played at this golf course before so here we go right so he misses four Cuts in a row and what’s the difference between these four miscuts and what he did at the farmers t13 and in Phoenix T12 he gained

With the putter that’s the difference I’ll just tell you I won’t make you guess anymore right because he has gained from T to Green basically every event dating back to the Scottish open but you flip the switch you gain a stroke with the flat stick and now

You’ve got top 15 finishes he’s played here before so if you like the idea of him having experience he’s got that t33 in 2022 he did miss the cut last year and he’s putted poorly on these greens so we’re asking him to marry the Newfound little putting prowess with the

Longterm approach play and he’s got the experience so that the top of that 8K range cam chample be for me but nap gim Davis Thompson absolutely happy to go to battle with any or all of those guys we have a lot of discussions about trying

To be early or trying to be late on golfers and I think it is a I think it’s a great way to look at these golfers almost as St like stocks right looking at the market and week to week fluctuations so the guy that I think could be severely mispriced is Maverick

Mcney $8,100 you know if this was this time last year maybe a little bit earlier if this was January of last year and we were going to an event with this field I think McNeely could have easily been in the 10K range and the reason for

His poor play since then is injury and he is seemingly back and healthy um this stat profile is very re I gotta be careful here very reminiscent of what we’ve what we saw from Will’s Al tour zalot torus coming back from an injury uh doesn’t play well starts

Knocking off the rust starts plugging his leaks starts leaning into his strengths again and the results follow McNeely who I um where did I see him I saw or when did I see him I saw him at TPC Summerland uh about a month ago maybe uh I guess maybe

It was before Sony so I guess it was six weeks ago was happy to be back and healthy he said he said the words happy to be to be able to go Full Tilt again great love to hear that starts to knock off the rust the profi the the Phoenix Open was great

He gained in every category and what I love about it is he’s back to putting well and that’s that’s really his strength he’s a very good putter his short game is very good um I’m not sure this is the greatest fit for him let’s see if he’s played here before he did

Last year finished t60 uh which I also think was in the midst of like wasn’t he hurt and he he was hurt at Phoenix last year um yeah then I think he tried to come back he tried to come yeah okay so he was hurt in Phoenix with Drew came

Back a month later for the players played a couple more times and then he eventually shuts it down like I’m not even sure he was super healthy during during last year’s event I I don’t think this is a great the greatest spot for him but I do think

He’s I do think he’s undervalued and I think if this was if he’s if he’d been healthy for the last year he’d be $10,000 that so that’s that’s just kind of my my rant on Maverick mcneilan you guys know I’m not like a huge huge mcne guy okay uh 7K range is pretty

Interesting so Alejandro toasty who has not gotten off to a good PGA Tour season uh he’s only played three times they haven’t been good his corn Fairy stuff was a lot better he finished 10th year last year if you’re if you think hey you know he’s trying to get his feet he’s

Trying to learn the processes on the PGA tour figure everything out this is probably one of the better spots for him to kind of snap into it and play the way that we were expecting Vincent Norman is here um Norman checks off the box of distance checks off the box of playing

Well here in the past 18th Last year is not great on approach but he’s he’s been very good in weaker field events so I put this in my in my stat right up for this week um he’s got 22 rounds in fields with a an adjusted an sof Plus

Under 100 means it’s a below average field strength he’s got since going back to 2019 he’s got the best uh the best Strokes game number in those types of events 1.62 he won it was either Barracuda or barbasol I believe it was barbas Sal don’t quote me on that

And he won the Irish open last year diet Tre is also on this list SMY pendrith lipsky phenow they kind of crush these um weaker field events but that that’s pretty telling and I like his game the fact that he is $7,600 makes it very flexible to get him

Into a lot of lineups I I’ve got to go back up to $7,900 and give a little bit of respect to sh Kim here right so he finished 24th here last year and he’s playing some good golf again here’s his stat profile and since the start of 2024

He’s got decent results T30 at the Sony he missed the cut at the American Express 50th at the farmer then he goes 31st at Pebble and 28th at the Phoenix Open and the stat profile is pretty good remember it’s a weak field we’re in the $7,000 range we we can’t get everything

That we want but he’s gained off the te in all but geez one event dating back to last year’s players he’s not a strong approach player though he was a tiny little positive in Phoenix and he was a positive at Sony so he is capable of doing it he gains six Strokes on

Approach at the fortnet he’s capable of doing it but it is probably his weakest area very good around the greens very good with the putter um I think that people will opt for Alejandro tosti chessen Hadley even Nate Lashley who’s got decent history around here finish

Third the farmers and not go for sh Kim I I think that would that would probably be a mistake other than that I find the 7K range a l a little uninspiring Alexander Bjork maybe but he hasn’t hasn’t played well he doesn’t drive it very far good approach player but might

Be behind the eightball a lot this week um Scott Stallings I think is okay but again not very inspired I’ll be interested to see what the what the model has to say when we run that in a little bit 6K range here okay if you’re willing to be in

On uh cam champ and his skill set and course history for what 9,000 how much is Cam champ this week uh maybe he’s 8,000 something 8600 you got to kind of be in on Joseph bramlet at 6,800 who is a very similar player hits it a mile has a top 10 here

Which was last year and then also has been playing better than cam champ as of late Champ’s got what four straight top four straight Miss Cuts in a 50th bramlet is coming off a Mis cut in Phoenix but had a top 25 at Farmers another good course for big hitters

Missed the cut at the American Express and had a t52 at s it’s not spectacular but it’s better than champ and I it’s it’s a $2,000 discount to get someone who I think is basically the same player so if you’re if you’re going for cam maybe consider Bram oh nice this

Is the range of a field where you just might not know a lot of these guys so I think it’s worth picking out a couple and doing a little bit of a deeper dive in like Joe Joe heith here is 6600 so he’s played three PGA Tour

Events this year he missed the cut at Sony it was a horrible start I mean I wouldn’t worry too much about that um the American Express he finished t34 and then the farmers he finished t-33 okay we’ve got two top 35s in his last two

Starts on the PGA tour going back to the end of the cor fairy tour last year bunch of top 10 including his last two starts which were T2 and T3 in their playoffs that T3 was the corn fairy TOUR Championship he had a great corn fairy

Season last year and starting to play a little bit better wouldn’t wouldn’t mind Joe heith one high Smith did I say he Heisman High Smith one single bit um Ben Kohl’s is here we’re we’re still kind of waiting for that Ben Cole’s breakout right I mean I think he we we lumped a

Lot of like him toasty Jake knap into the conversation of these guys that you want to keep an eye on coming up from the corn fairy because you can see why just a ton of top 10 gaining every single week nearly double digits routinely got off to a hot start at the

RSM in the fall finished T5 there and then hasn’t really been as good missed the cut in both Phoenix and the farmers I’m bullish long term but this is probably a little bit difficult to invest in right now let’s see what else we’ve got yeah I mean like this is this

Is pretty cool so we’ve got like $6,400 like there’s going to be so many guys that just people don’t know so having the model having the the database having access to all this is pretty valuable so chrisal Del solar he’s the guy that just

Shot the 57 right the 57 on the on the corn faery and I believe he went on to win that I guess I can just check no he didn’t sorry I I gave H Chris the ball a win he finished fifth wow tough tough week shoot at 57 finish finished fifth

Um Jorge campio is here right Jorge campio primarily plays or almost exclusively plays on the on the DP World Tour just finished fifth at the Qatar Masters that that’s not a bad field not a bad event um you know the one miscut in Bahrain is the only miscut that he’s

Got dating back to the Open Championship gained 10 Strokes in Qatar played played well in Dubai played well in South Africa guy the guy loves qar by the way I mean last last finished runner up in October fifth in uh fifth in February wow pretty good like people people just

Don’t know who these people who these guys are they’re just not going to click they’re just not going to click any of these names I’m really excited to see what the model pumps out but we got to go through the 5K range here real quick

Um yeah I mean these are guy these are guys that are like good corn fairy players you know Max Max grer Patrick Fishburn I don’t mind these guys a ton um Hayden oh Norm’s here Norman Jang wow there’s your first round leader Hayden Springer popped up in my research

I believe it was here Power Rankings Strokes gain distribution Strokes gain five or more yeah okay uh and actually let’s open this up to like a 100 rounds with a minimum of 35 because I don’t want to get this skewed too much look at this so

This is a ceiling a view of the ceiling how often golfers gain five or more Strokes to the field in their last 100 Alejandro tosy does it the most 12% Jake knap does it second 11% Hayden Springer at 10.8% those are the only three guys over eight and a half% and

They’re over 10 10 and a half per. um Springer has fewer rounds and his floor is much lower which is you know probably why he’s $5,700 so that’s that’s the tradeoff there uh Parker Cy Ben Kohl’s round out the uh the top five Rico hoie remember he got in the

Mix God when was that American Express I don’t I don’t remember when that was wow it was and he missed the cut so he was he gained five Strokes to the field in round one he was like one of the first round leaders and he missed

The cut I didn’t know that he’s missed four in a row o boy that’s that’s not fun Tom Whitney big strong dude um t13 at Farmers where he gained five Strokes on approach I mean he’s got he’s got a corn fairy profile this this is a corn fairy

Profile it’s like a bunch of top fives and a bunch of miscuts that’s that’s how a lot of guys get from the corn fairy to the to the PGA let’s see what the model has to say right I mean like let’s like I’ll Zoom this in a little bit um so

Let’s do I okay so I want I I want distance and I want approach play and I want that long approach play so here’s what we’re going to do we’re going to put in like a little bit of just like a baseline weighted Strokes gain total

Last 36 so that’s just going to give us our Baseline because there are you also have to remember there are a lot of guys that don’t have all of the stat breakdown you know they’re playing on tours where it’s not all tracked weighted Strokes gain total every golfer has a Strokes gain total

Number because it’s just calculated by round score which means every golfer has a we to Strokes gain number so we’re just going to put a baseline weighted Strokes gain last 36 at 15 and I think that that is now we can basically do whatever we want um so what we will do

Is we’re going to put 10 on Strokes gained approach last 36 but then we’re going to go down and do 10 on 175 to 200 and 200 to 225 so now we’ve got 30 on a pro maybe more than that maybe we’ll do 15 on each so now we’ve got 40 on

Approach which is which is what we wanted we wanted a lot and we’ve got our Baseline in there so we’re also going to do driving distance for 15 so we’re up to 70 now we will do uh I guess we could do like long courses par 7174 that would kind of count right

Let’s put 10 on Long courses and let’s put 10 on course history Vidant viarta shks Game beat onto by arur we’ve got 10 more let’s do I think I got all the ones I definitely wanted let’s do implied win percentage that’s the odds I mean those guys have done so well here

Okay number one is Tony Fen now no surprise uh Amano gillo oh am I sorting Oh I thought I was sorting by salary because those are the top three guys phenow guo hyart one two three the most expensive in one two three in my model it’s kind of it’s kind of

Annoying pendrith fourth okay Jagger fifth bramlet up to seventh at 6800 where’s Cam champ 17th I’m telling you I mean pendra uh uh bramlet is a better play than cam champ is I don’t even really care how it how it ends up that’s wild to me EVR eight Lashley nine ecro 10 wow

What else are we you know I’m sick when I have Carson young favored I’ll just unfavorite that Vincent Norman 21st at 7600 Patrick Rogers 19th at 97 that’s tough Vegas and Carson young are 15 and 16 wow he SATs all the way down to 30th Mitchell Keith Mitchell down to

26th at 9900 that’s stinky H okay well we’ll continue to dive into this but it’s a fun week I don’t know what’s going to happen nobody does nobody ever knows we we we’ll figure it out we’ll do our best along the way I’ll see you guys Wednesday for

The live chat 3 p pm. eastern time go get in the splash contest let’s fill that up oh I meant to say this crap I shouldn’t have waited till the end if you are interested in like a um like a like a Majors plus players

One and done or two and done or three and done let me know leave a comment and I’ll see if I can get I’m just testing out if that’s going to be interesting or not so if you’ve made it this far you’re probably interested in it but just just

Let me know best of luck I’ll talk to you guys soon